Union instability as an engine of fertility? A microsimulation model for France

Scenarios of Delayed First Births and Associated Cohort Fertility Levels

Fertility rates among individuals in their 20s have fallen sharply across Europe over the past 50 years. The implications of delayed first births for fertility levels in modern family regimes remain little understood. Using microsimulation models of childbearing and partnership for the 1970-1979 birth cohorts in Italy, Great Britain, Sweden, and Norway, we implement fictive scenarios that reduce the risk of having a first child before age 30 and examine fertility recovery mechanisms for aggregate fertility indicators (the proportion of women with at least one, two, three, or four children; cohort completed fertility rate). Exposure to a first birth increases systematically in the ages following the simulated reduction in first-birth risks, leading to a structural recovery in childbearing that varies across countries according to their fertility and partnership regimes. Full recovery requires an increase in late first-birth risks, with greater increases in countries where late family formation is uncommon and average family sizes are larger: in scenarios where early fertility declines substantially (a linear decline from 50% at age 15 to 0% at age 30), first-birth risks above age 30 would have to increase by 54% in Great Britain, 40% in Norway and Sweden, and 20% in Italy to keep completed fertility constant.

Explaining the urban-rural gradient in later fertility in Europe

Demographic research shows that, in Europe, fertility takes place later and is lower in cities than in rural areas. One might expect fertility to be delayed in urban areas because of longer periods in education and enhanced career opportunities. We, therefore, examine how prevalent later fertility (35+ and 40+) is along the urban-rural axis, and whether differences can be explained by economic, cultural and compositional factors. We estimate multilevel random coefficient models, employing aggregated Eurostat data of 1328 Nomenclature des unités territoriales statistiques (NUTS) 3 and 270 NUTS 2 regions from 28 European countries. The urban-rural gradient in later fertility considerably diminishes once factors describing the economic environment, family and gender norms as well as population composition are accounted for. The higher prevalence of later fertility in cities is particularly associated with higher female education, greater wealth and a higher share of employment in high-technology sectors.

Kinship and socio-economic status: Social gradients in frequencies of kin across the life course in Sweden

The influence of kin on various outcomes is heavily debated. However, kinship size itself conditions the probability of potential effects. Socio-economic gradients in the prevalence, variance, and types of kin are, therefore, a vital aspect of the functions of kin. Unfortunately, these parameters are largely unknown. We used Swedish register data to enumerate consanguine and in-law kin across the life course of the 1975 birth cohort. We calculated differences in kinship size between this cohort's income quartiles and educational groups. We decomposed how specific kin relations, generations, and demographic behaviours contributed to these differences. Among low socio-economic status (SES) groups, higher fertility in earlier generations resulted in more kin compared with high-SES groups. Low-SES groups had more horizontal consanguine kin, while high-SES groups had more in-laws. Lower fertility and higher union instability among low-SES men substantially narrowed SES differences in kinship size. Kinship size varied substantially within SES groups.

Partnership and fertility trajectories of immigrants and descendants in the United Kingdom: A multilevel multistate event history approach

We study the interrelationships between partnership and fertility trajectories of immigrant women and female descendants of immigrants using the UK Household Longitudinal Study. We propose a novel multistate event history approach to analyse the outcomes of unpartnered, cohabiting, and married women. We find that the partnership and fertility behaviours of immigrants and descendants from European and Western countries are similar to those of native women: many cohabit first and then have children and/or marry. Those from countries with conservative family behaviours (e.g. South Asian countries) marry first and then have children. Women from the Caribbean show the weakest link between partnership changes and fertility: some have births outside unions; some form a union and have children thereafter. Family patterns have remained relatively stable across migrant generations and birth cohorts, although marriage is being postponed in all groups. Our findings on immigrants support the socialization hypothesis, whereas those on descendants are in line with the minority subculture hypothesis.

Childbearing across partnerships in Italy: Prevalence, demographic correlates, and social gradient

Studies of childbearing across partnerships-having children with more than one partner-have generally focused on countries with relatively high separation rates. We complement this previous research with analyses for Italy using nationally representative, retrospective data and event-history techniques. This study offers three key findings. First, we detected a non-negligible share of childbearing across partnerships, although at substantially lower levels relative to other wealthy countries (5 per cent of parents aged 25-54 with at least two children). Second, multivariate analyses revealed an impressive similarity to the demographic correlates found elsewhere. Finally, we showed that childbearing across partnerships was initiated by the 'social vanguard' of new family behaviours but then diffused among the least well-off. Overall, this paper adds to the growing literature on childbearing across partnerships by showing the phenomenon to be demographically and sociologically relevant, even in countries with strong family ties and a limited diffusion of union dissolution.

Union Instability and Fertility: An International Perspective

In this article, we analyse the relationship between union instability and cumulated fertility among ever-partnered women in several regions across Europe and the Americas with different patterns of demographic behaviour in terms of fertility levels, union instability and fertility across partnerships. We hypothesise that the relationship between union dissolution and fertility might be less negative in contexts where repartnering is more prevalent. The analysis is performed on a large dataset of 25 countries, combining information from the Harmonised Histories of the Generation and Gender Programme with our own harmonisation of survey data from three Latin American countries. This allows for the inclusion of countries with differing prevalence of union instability as measured by (a) the proportion of women who separated by age 40, and (b) the proportion who repartnered by age 40. We first examine the prevalence of separation and repartnering during reproductive ages across regions, and we estimate the proportion of cumulated fertility attributable to unions of different ranks using a decomposition method. We then analyse the links between union instability and the number of children born by age 40 among ever-partnered and ever-repartnered women, using Poisson regression. Despite observing a high degree of heterogeneity in the proportions of births occurring in the context of repartnering both within and between regions, we find a pattern where a greater prevalence of repartnering by age 40 is accompanied by higher cumulated fertility in second or subsequent unions. Our multivariate findings reveal a negative statistical relationship between separation and cumulated fertility that is partially offset by repartnering in some contexts, and that the time spent in a union during the reproductive lifespan is a key determinant of cumulated fertility, regardless of national context and independently from age at union formation and union rank.

The Role of Gender Differences in Partnering and Re-partnering for Gender Differences in Completed Fertility

Individuals increasingly enter a series of relationships during their reproductive years. As births in higher-order unions increase, fertility becomes partially contingent on re-partnering. Previous research suggests that men re-partner at higher rates than women. This study analyzes whether gender differences in partnering and re-partnering influence gender differences in cohort fertility. We use Finnish register data on all births, marriages, and cohabitations between the ages of 18 and 47 over four full birth cohorts. The gender differences in cohort fertility rate are decomposed into components due to birth rate differences and a compositional component owing to gender differences in the share partnered and re-partnered. We observe no impact of “re-partnering premium” on male fertility. Men have marginally higher re-partnering rates at older ages, when birth rates are low, whereas women have higher rates of partnering and re-partnering at prime childbearing ages. This compositional effect drives a “partnering” advantage for female fertility. This connection between gender differences in partnering and cohort fertility is true across educational levels.

The Association between Religiosity and Fertility Intentions Via Grandparenting: Evidence from GGS Data

Although the literature concerning the association between religiosity and fertility in European countries is already quite extensive, studies exploring the mechanisms of action of religiosity are rare. The main aim of this article is to investigate whether grandparental childcare is a mediating or moderating variable in the association between attendance at religious services and the intention to have a second or third child. Building on previous literature, we assume that parents who are more religious might put more effort into establishing a positive relation with the grandparents of their child/children. Consequently, compared to parents who are less religious, those who are more religious could be more receptive to possible encouragement from grandparents to have another child and may be more optimistic regarding grandparents' involvement with an additional child. Using Generations and Gender Survey (GGS) data for eleven European countries, we find evidence of a strong and positive effect of attendance at religious services on fertility intentions. Receipt of regular or weekly help from grandparents positively moderates the association between attendance at religious services and fertility intentions, albeit only for male respondents and mainly for the intention to have a second child.

Less Is More? Repartnering and Completed Cohort Fertility in Finland

An extensive literature theorizes the role of repartnering for cohort fertility and whether union dissolution can be an engine for fertility. A large share of higher order unions are nonmarital cohabitations, but most previous studies on completed cohort fertility have analyzed only marital unions, and none have incorporated nonmarital cohabitations using population-level data. To analyze the relationship between the number of unions and cohort fertility for men and women, we use Poisson regression with Finnish register data to enumerate every birth, marriage, and cohabitation among the 1969-1972 birth cohorts at ages 18-46. We show that dissolutions of first cohabitations are the main pathway to repartnering and that most higher order unions are cohabitations. Nonmarital repartnering is a strong predictor of low fertility. In contrast, remarriage is positively associated with cohort fertility. Because the bulk of first-union dissolutions and higher order unions are nonmarital, repartnering is not an efficient engine for fertility at the aggregate level. Marriage and cohabitation are far from indistinguishable in a country often described as a second demographic transition forerunner.

Life-Course Trajectories of Childless Women: Country-Specific or Universal?

While existing research has documented complexities in biographies of childless women, few studies to date have systematically examined the life-course pathways of the childless from a comparative, cross-country perspective. In this paper, we analyse biographies of childless women in four countries-Germany, Italy, Poland, and the United States-in order to investigate whether pathways into childlessness are country-specific or commonly shared across institutional, cultural, and geographical settings. Partnership, education, and employment histories are examined using sequence analysis with dynamic Hamming distance and cluster analysis. Discrepancy analysis indicates a country-effect in women's biographies although life-course patterns identified in each country share similarities. Overall, seven life-course trajectories have been identified, with the most numerous cluster comprising single, working women who completed their education at a relatively young age. The results highlight a marked variation in the life-courses of childless women. Put together, these findings provide descriptive evidence for both country-specificity and cross-country similarity in the pathways to childlessness.

Parental age gaps among immigrants and their descendants: Adaptation across time and generations?

Age gaps between partners have undergone dramatic changes in high-income countries over the past century. Yet, there has been little focus on age gaps for immigrants and their descendants. This is an important omission because age gaps can be interpreted as a macro-level indicator of intergenerational adaptation. We examine the age gaps of biological parents (childbearing partners) among immigrants and their descendants in Sweden, a country with high gender equality and a stable mean age gap. Using longitudinal, whole-population data, we examine changes in age gaps for cohorts born 1950-86. Cohort trends in age gaps often follow very different patterns for male and female immigrants, with limited evidence of adaptation across cohorts. However, there is considerable evidence of adaptation towards the Swedish norm among the second generation, including from direct comparison between immigrants and their children. The largest differences between women and men are seen among the first generation with a Swedish-born partner.

Microsimulation of Household and Marital Transitions Leading to Childlessness Among Dutch Women Born Between 1971 and 2000

After reaching historically low levels among the women born in the early 1940s, childlessness has been increasing in most Western countries among women born in the 1950s and 1960s. This increase took place as patterns of transition to adulthood have become increasingly late, protracted, and complex. Yet, it is precisely those women who enter a first relationship late, spend more time as single, and experience union instability who more often remain childless. This suggests that levels of childlessness will continue to increase as younger cohorts complete their childbearing histories. In this study, we use microsimulation to project the household and union formation histories of cohorts of Dutch women born between 1971 and 2000. Results suggest that childlessness will actually decrease among cohorts born between 1971 and 1983 and then increase among those born between 1984 and 2000. The decrease occurs as pathways of household and union formation become later, more protracted, and more complex, but also as cohabiting women start to exhibit a higher propensity to become mothers. The increase, on the other hand, occurs as pathways become somewhat less protracted and complex, but also as the propensity of cohabiting women to become mothers returns to previous levels and as age at leaving the parental home strongly rises. Childlessness levels appear to increasingly depend on the childbearing decisions of cohabiting couples and on age at leaving the parental home.

Fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africa: Does remarriage matter?

The interplay between remarriage and fertility is among the most poorly documented subjects in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), despite remarriage being one of the fundamental aspects of marriage dynamics in this region. We use Demographic and Health Survey data from 34 countries in SSA to document the association between remarriage and fertility during the reproductive years and over the fertility transition. The findings show that in 29 countries, remarried women end up having fewer children than women in intact unions, despite attaining similar or higher levels of fertility at early reproductive ages. However, remarriage is found to have a positive effect on fertility in Sierra Leone. The effects of remarriage on fertility diminish as fertility declines, with smaller effects generally observed in countries that are relatively advanced in their fertility transition and larger effects found elsewhere. These findings shed light on the role that remarriage might play in country-level fertility declines.

Lifetime parenthood in the context of single- and multiple-partner fertility

The proportion of life spent caring for dependent children is a defining feature of life courses. This study uses Swedish register data to analyze the period of life spent as parents to children no older than 18 as a salient difference between single- and multiple-partner fertility trajectories. Individuals who have children with more than one partner spend a much longer time as parents to dependent children than those who have children with one partner, on average 8.2 more years among men and 6.2 more years among women. Cross-partner birth spacing is a more powerful proximate cause of this gap than completed fertility. We argue that an extended time parenthood is part and parcel to multi-partner fertility and discuss implications of this.

European countries with delayed childbearing are not those with lower fertility

At the individual level, a very strong negative relationship is observed between age at first birth and total number of children. However, at the country level, it is possible that no relationship exists between factors that reduce fertility at younger ages and stimulate it at older ages. Hence, across countries, the size of the decline in youth fertility is potentially unrelated to the size of the increase in fertility at older ages or the decline in total fertility. We study the fertility of women and their age at childbirth, with particular attention to their evolution over the last 40 years in countries across Europe. Comparing these countries, the increase in births after age 30 has occurred relatively independently of the decline at younger ages according to both period and cohort, and we find no positive relationship between the delay of first birth and decline in total fertility. On the contrary, an inverse relationship evidently exists at the country level, as longer delays generally correspond to smaller declines in total fertility. Context effects largely dominate individual constraints and play an important role in the occurrence of later births.

The Heterogeneity of Partnership Trajectories to Childlessness in Germany

In recent decades, childlessness has increased across many European countries. In addition to socioeconomic characteristics, having a partner is considered a prerequisite in most fertility studies. Yet, still little is known about the partnership biographies of childless women and men. We assess the heterogeneity in the partnership trajectories of childless persons in Germany and explore compositional differences of partnership trajectories by gender and education. We use data from the German Family Panel to reconstruct partnership biographies reflecting the occurrence and frequency of different partnership states (singleness, living apart together, cohabitation, marriage). The sample comprises women and men born 1971-1973 whose life courses are observed from age 18-40. Applying sequence and cluster analysis, we identify five patterns of partnership trajectories: (1) 'Marriage' (14.6%); (2) 'Long-term cohabitation' (11.8%) with one partner; (3) 'Serial cohabitation' (15.6%); (4) 'LAT' (18.8%), long-term/multiple living-apart-together relationships; and (5) 'Single' (39.3%), long-term singleness. Men are overrepresented in the 'Single' cluster, especially if highly educated. Women are more often married and more likely to experience long-lasting singleness or multiple LAT episodes when being highly educated. We speculate that theories predicting high levels of childlessness in contexts where gender norms and work-family policies do not account for the increasing gender equality in education and labor force participation might also explain differences in the pathways leading to childlessness. Generally, our findings point at a more elaborate conceptualization of childlessness that moves away from a binary cross-sectional indicator and set the ground for future cross-national comparisons.

Union Histories of Dissolution: What Can They Say About Childlessness?

This study investigates how the association between union dissolution and childlessness depends on life course context. Data on union histories and fertility are taken from the Norwegian GGS. To observe union histories up to age 45, I include men and women born 1927-1962. I further condition on having experienced at least one union dissolution before age 45, giving a study sample of 883 men and 1110 women. To capture the life course context of union dissolutions, I group union histories similar in timing, occurrence and ordering of events using sequence analysis. Eight well-clustered groups of union histories are distinguished. Four consist of life courses dominated by a long first or second union and display low levels of childlessness. The highest proportion childlessness is found among individuals who entered a first union late and dissolved it quickly. Groups characterised by long spells alone after a dissolution or many short unions also displayed a high proportion of childlessness. In contrast to findings from the USA, neither union trajectories nor their link with childlessness varies by educational attainment.

Partnership Choice and Childbearing in Norway and Spain

Cohabitation has, in a number of countries, become a genuine alternative to marriage. Where this occurs, will we see a convergence in fertility behavior between the two partnership options? We address this question by comparing two societies, Norway and Spain, that contrast sharply not only in the evolution of cohabitation, but also in overall birth rates and public support for families. Using the Generations and Gender Survey for Norway (2007/2008) and the most recent Fertility, Family and Values Survey for Spain (2006), we estimate a three-equation multi-process model for selection into a union and fertility in order to take into account unobserved heterogeneity. For Norway, we find a significant association between selection into either partnership type and fertility, whereas for Spain, a newcomer to cohabitation, we find a significant association between fertility and selection into marriage.

Death Is Not the End: A Register-Based Study of the Effect of Parental Death on Adult Children's Childbearing Behavior in Sweden

Macro-level studies have shown that rapid increases in mortality can affect fertility rates. Parental death has also been linked to negative psychological and physical outcomes, reduced relationship quality, and making bereaved children attach more importance to their families. No prior study has examined whether parental death influences adult children's fertility at the microlevel. This study applies event history techniques to Swedish multigeneration registers listing 1.5 million individuals with micro data on mortality and fertility to investigate short-term (first birth risk) and long-term (childlessness at age 45) effects of parental death on adult children's fertility. The principal finding is that parental death during reproductive age affects children's fertility and this effect is mainly short term. The effects differ to some degree between men and women and depend on the stage of the life course in which the bereavement occurs. Younger individuals experiencing a parental death have a significantly higher first birth risk after the parental death compared with peers who did not experience a parental death. Individuals older than 23 who experience a parental death have no or lower first birth risk after the parental death compared with baseline. Men, compared with women, are more likely to end childless if they experience a parental death.

Shifts in Higher-Order Unions and Stepfamilies among Currently Cohabiting and Married Women of Childbearing Age

Shifts in union formation and childbearing have undoubtedly altered the prevalence and structure of higher-order unions and stepfamilies, but no study has examined trends over time. Comparing the 1988 and 2011-2013 cycles of the National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG), I produce estimates of repartnering and stepfamily formation among currently partnered women aged 15-44. The percentage of intact unions that are remarriages stayed stable (around 27-28%), but a growing proportion of currently married and cohabiting women had another cohabiting partner in the past. The percentage of intact unions that are stepfamilies increased from 24% to 31%, with an increase in cohabiting stepfamilies from 19% to 39% of all stepfamilies. Further, while the majority of remarriages are stepfamilies, the majority of women's stepfamilies are no longer remarriages due to union formation among never-married parents. Cohabiting (but not marital) stepfamilies also exhibited changes in which partner had children and in shared childbearing.

Educational differentials in cohabitors' marriage intentions at different childbearing stages in seven European countries

Several studies have looked into the socio-economic gradients of cohabitation and non-marital fertility. According to the theory of the Second Demographic Transition, highly educated individuals can be considered as forerunners in the Western European spread of non-marital family forms after the 1970s. In Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), however, research has provided evidence for a Pattern of Disadvantage where those with the lowest education have been the most likely to adopt such family forms. Hitherto, few studies have considered the educational gradient of the intentions underlying these behaviors. This contribution uses information on marriage and fertility intentions from the Generations and Gender Surveys for seven European countries to assess educational differentials. In Western Europe we observe no strong educational gradients in marriage intentions at any childbearing stage (before, during or following). In CEE countries, however, less educated cohabitors more frequently choose for cohabitation during childbearing.

Is Stepfamily Status Associated With Cohabiting and Married Women's Fertility Behaviors?

Children from prior relationships potentially complicate fertility decision-making in new cohabitations and marriages. On the one hand, the "value of children" perspective suggests that unions with and without stepchildren have similar-and deliberate-reasons for shared childbearing. On the other hand, multipartnered fertility (MPF) research suggests that childbearing across partnerships is often unintended. Using the 2006-2010 National Survey of Family Growth and event-history models, I examine the role of stepfamily status on cohabiting and married women's fertility and birth intendedness, with attention to union type and stepfamily configuration. Adjusting for covariates, women in stepfamily unions are more likely to have a first shared birth in a union than women in unions in which neither partner has children from past relationships, but stepfamily births are less likely to be intended than unintended. Further, this association varies by union type: married women have similar birth risks across stepfamily status, but births are less likely to be intended in marital stepfamilies. For cohabitors, women in a stepfamily are more likely to have a birth than women in nonstepfamily unions, with no differences in intendedness. Configuration (whose children and how many) also matters; for instance, women with one child from a past relationship are more likely to have a birth and to have an intended than unintended birth than women with other stepfamily configurations. It appears that children from either partner's prior relationships influences subsequent fertility decision-making, undermining the utility of the "value of children" perspective for explaining childbearing behaviors in complex families.

Is Stepfamily Status Associated With Cohabiting and Married Women's Fertility Behaviors?

Children from prior relationships potentially complicate fertility decision-making in new cohabitations and marriages. On the one hand, the "value of children" perspective suggests that unions with and without stepchildren have similar-and deliberate-reasons for shared childbearing. On the other hand, multipartnered fertility (MPF) research suggests that childbearing across partnerships is often unintended. Using the 2006-2010 National Survey of Family Growth and event-history models, I examine the role of stepfamily status on cohabiting and married women's fertility and birth intendedness, with attention to union type and stepfamily configuration. Adjusting for covariates, women in stepfamily unions are more likely to have a first shared birth in a union than women in unions in which neither partner has children from past relationships, but stepfamily births are less likely to be intended than unintended. Further, this association varies by union type: married women have similar birth risks across stepfamily status, but births are less likely to be intended in marital stepfamilies. For cohabitors, women in a stepfamily are more likely to have a birth than women in nonstepfamily unions, with no differences in intendedness. Configuration (whose children and how many) also matters; for instance, women with one child from a past relationship are more likely to have a birth and to have an intended than unintended birth than women with other stepfamily configurations. It appears that children from either partner's prior relationships influences subsequent fertility decision-making, undermining the utility of the "value of children" perspective for explaining childbearing behaviors in complex families.

Second Unions Now More Stable than First? A Comparison of Separation Risks by Union Order in France

The frequency of union dissolutions increased sharply over the past 40 years in Western Europe and North America, resulting in a rapid growth in the number of persons living with a second partner. In studies of the 1980s, primarily conducted within the context of marriage, second partnerships were generally found to be less stable than first unions, but more recent studies provide more conflicting evidence. Taking the example of France, we study whether the relationship between first and second union stability indeed reversed between the 1970s and the 2000s, and how union and individual characteristics contributed to changes over time. The analysis presented here is based on the French Generations and Gender Survey (2005). The article first provides an overview of the differences in marriage, childbearing and breakup behaviours in first and second unions. Second, a piecewise linear model for repeated events is used to compare women's dissolution risks in first and second unions. The results show that over time, the higher instability of second compared to first unions disappeared. Further, women in second unions adopted unmarried cohabitation as a living arrangement more often across the whole period and were more likely to have stepchildren, which was associated with less stable unions. Taking into account this diversity of family situations, i.e. controlling for family form and children, second unions were more stable than first unions, even during the past. At both union orders, marriage breakup risks tended to stabilise despite a continuing increase in the prevalence of separation, which suggests that cohabitation increasingly acts as a filter for marriage.

Fertility after repartnering in the Netherlands: Parenthood or commitment?

In this paper, we focus on childbearing after the dissolution of the first marital union. The discussion of what drives fertility decisions after dissolution has been largely dominated by the arguments that: (a) people want to have a child as a way to achieve the adult status of parenthood (the "parenthood hypothesis"), and that (b) a shared child can signal the partners' commitment to each other (the "commitment hypothesis"). Earlier studies have reported mixed findings for these hypotheses. We used couple data from several Dutch surveys (N = 8094 couples of which 10.2% included a repartnering partner) and utilized a new analytical approach to test the commitment proposition in particular. Our main findings lend support to the parenthood hypothesis when it comes to men's transition to a union-specific birth and to the commitment hypothesis when considering women's transition. Whereas for men, children from a prior union decrease the likelihood of transitioning to a union-specific birth, for women children from a prior union do not matter. That is, women would find it important to confirm the union as a family despite the presence of children. Additional support for the commitment hypothesis for women is that being in a second union rather than first union increases chances of parity progression.

Childbearing across partnerships in Australia, the United States, Norway, and Sweden

This article compares mothers' experience of having children with more than one partner in two liberal welfare regimes (the United States and Australia) and two social democratic regimes (Sweden and Norway). We use survey-based union and birth histories in Australia and the United States and data from national population registers in Norway and Sweden to estimate the likelihood of experiencing childbearing across partnerships at any point in the childbearing career. We find that births with new partners constitute a substantial proportion of all births in each country we study. Despite quite different arrangements for social welfare, the determinants of childbearing across partnerships are very similar. Women who had their first birth at a very young age or who are less well-educated are most likely to have children with different partners. The educational gradient in childbearing across partnerships is also consistently negative across countries, particularly in contrast to educational gradients in childbearing with the same partner. The risk of childbearing across partnerships increased dramatically in all countries from the 1980s to the 2000s, and educational differences also increased, again, in both liberal and social democratic welfare regimes.

Young women's dynamic family size preferences in the context of transitioning fertility

Dynamic theories of family size preferences posit that they are not a fixed and stable goal but rather are akin to a moving target that changes within individuals over time. Nonetheless, in high-fertility contexts, changes in family size preferences tend to be attributed to low construct validity and measurement error instead of genuine revisions in preferences. To address the appropriateness of this incongruity, the present study examines evidence for the sequential model of fertility among a sample of young Malawian women living in a context of transitioning fertility. Using eight waves of closely spaced data and fixed-effects models, we find that these women frequently change their reported family size preferences and that these changes are often associated with changes in their relationship and reproductive circumstances. The predictability of change gives credence to the argument that ideal family size is a meaningful construct, even in this higher-fertility setting. Changes are not equally predictable across all women, however, and gamma regression results demonstrate that women for whom reproduction is a more distant goal change their fertility preferences in less-predictable ways.

Stepfamily childbearing in Sweden: quantum and tempo effects, 1950-99

Several studies have demonstrated that stepfamily couples have a higher risk of childbearing than couples in a stable union with the same total number of children. Analysing retrospective data from a nationally representative sample of Swedish adults, we find that the risk of a second or third birth is higher when it is the first or second child in a new union. We also find a faster pace of childbearing after stepfamily formation than after a shared birth. The risk of a second birth (in total) is only a little higher in the first two years after stepfamily formation than in the first two years after a shared birth, and thereafter the risk is lower for stepfamilies. The risk of a third birth (in total) is particularly high early in the stepfamily union and remains higher than that of couples with two shared children for at least five years. The stepfamily difference was lower after than before 1980, when the Swedish government introduced parental leave incentives for short birth intervals.