On the beginning of mortality acceleration

Modeling Human Mortality from All Diseases in the Five Most Populated Countries of the European Union

Age affects mortality from diseases differently than it affects mortality from external causes, such as accidents. Exclusion of the latter leads to the "all-diseases" category. The age trajectories of mortality from all diseases are studied in the five most populated countries of the EU, and the shape of these 156 age trajectories is investigated in detail. The arithmetic mean of ages where mortality reaches a minimal value is 8.47 years with a 95% confidence interval of [8.08, 8.85] years. Two simple deterministic models fit the age trajectories on the two sides of the mortality minimum. The inverse relationship is valid in all cases prior to this mortality minimum and death rates exactly decreased to three thousandths of its original size during the first 3000 days. After the mortality minimum, the standard Gompertz model fits the data in 63 cases, and the Gompertz model extended by a small quadratic element fits the remaining 93 cases. This analysis indicates that the exponential increase begins before the age of 15 years and that it is overshadowed by non-biological causes. Therefore, the existence of a mechanism switching that would explain the exponential increase in mortality after the age of 35 years is unlikely.

Measuring aging rates of mice subjected to caloric restriction and genetic disruption of growth hormone signaling

Caloric restriction and genetic disruption of growth hormone signaling have been shown to counteract aging in mice. The effects of these interventions on aging are examined through age-dependent survival or through the increase in age-dependent mortality rates on a logarithmic scale fitted to the Gompertz model. However, these methods have limitations that impede a fully comprehensive disclosure of these effects. Here we examine the effects of these interventions on murine aging through the increase in age-dependent mortality rates on a linear scale without fitting them to a model like the Gompertz model. Whereas these interventions negligibly and non-consistently affected the aging rates when examined through the age-dependent mortality rates on a logarithmic scale, they caused the aging rates to increase at higher ages and to higher levels when examined through the age-dependent mortality rates on a linear scale. These results add to the debate whether these interventions postpone or slow aging and to the understanding of the mechanisms by which they affect aging. Since different methods yield different results, it is worthwhile to compare their results in future research to obtain further insights into the effects of dietary, genetic, and other interventions on the aging of mice and other species.

Onset of mortality increase with age and age trajectories of mortality from all diseases in the four Nordic countries

BACKGROUND

The answer to the question "At what age does aging begin?" is tightly related to the question "Where is the onset of mortality increase with age?" Age affects mortality rates from all diseases differently than it affects mortality rates from nonbiological causes. Mortality increase with age in adult populations has been modeled by many authors, and little attention has been given to mortality decrease with age after birth.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Nonbiological causes are excluded, and the category "all diseases" is studied. It is analyzed in Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden during the period 1994-2011, and all possible models are screened. Age trajectories of mortality are analyzed separately: before the age category where mortality reaches its minimal value and after the age category.

RESULTS

Resulting age trajectories from all diseases showed a strong minimum, which was hidden in total mortality. The inverse proportion between mortality and age fitted in 54 of 58 cases before mortality minimum. The Gompertz model with two parameters fitted as mortality increased with age in 17 of 58 cases after mortality minimum, and the Gompertz model with a small positive quadratic term fitted data in the remaining 41 cases. The mean age where mortality reached minimal value was 8 (95% confidence interval 7.05-8.95) years. The figures depict an age where the human population has a minimal risk of death from biological causes.

CONCLUSION

Inverse proportion and the Gompertz model fitted data on both sides of the mortality minimum, and three parameters determined the shape of the age-mortality trajectory. Life expectancy should be determined by the two standard Gompertz parameters and also by the single parameter in the model c/x. All-disease mortality represents an alternative tool to study the impact of age. All results are based on published data.

Which Is the Most Significant Cause of Aging?

It becomes clearer and clearer that aging is a result of a significant number of causes and it would seem that counteracting one or several of them should not make a significant difference. Taken at face value, this suggests, for example, that free radicals and reactive oxygen species do not play a significant role in aging and that the lifespan of organisms cannot be significantly extended. In this review, I point to the fact that the causes of aging synergize with each other and discuss the implications involved. One implication is that when two or more synergizing causes increase over time, the result of their action increases dramatically; I discuss a simple model demonstrating this. It is reasonable to conclude that this might explain the acceleration of aging and mortality with age. In this regard, the analysis of results and mortality patterns described in studies involving yeasts and Drosophila provides support for this view. Since the causes of aging are synergizing, it is also concluded that none of them is the major one but many including free radicals, etc. play significant roles. It follows that health/lifespan might be significantly extended if we eliminate or even attenuate the increase of a few or even just one of the causes of aging. While the synergism between the causes of aging is the main topic of this review, several related matters are briefly discussed as well.