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Wang Y, Teerawichitchainan B, Ho C. Diverse pathways to permanent childlessness in Singapore: A latent class analysis. ADVANCES IN LIFE COURSE RESEARCH 2024; 61:100628. [PMID: 38917686 DOI: 10.1016/j.alcr.2024.100628] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/25/2023] [Revised: 05/05/2024] [Accepted: 06/18/2024] [Indexed: 06/27/2024]
Abstract
The proportions of adults reaching midlife without having children have been rising rapidly across the globe, particularly in Asia. However, little is known about the pathways to permanent childlessness within the region's childless population. This study utilized latent class analysis (LCA) to typologize pathways to childlessness based on dynamic characteristics of multiple life domains (i.e., partnership, education, and occupation) among 489 childless Singaporeans aged 50 and above from a 2022 nationwide survey. Additionally, we utilized multinomial logistic regressions to examine the sociodemographic correlates of pathway profiles and Shannon's entropy index to assess the heterogeneity in pathways to childlessness among successive cohorts. Results revealed five distinct profiles of pathways to childlessness: the Never-Married Semi-Professionals, the Low-Flex Blue-Collars, the Highly Educated Professionals, the Ever-Married Semi-Professionals, and the Flexible Blue-Collars. These pathway profiles were significantly associated with sociodemographic characteristics such as gender and family background. Women's pathways to childlessness were more standardized and heavily influenced by partnership characteristics, compared to those of men. The childless from privileged family background were less likely to follow pathways characterized by disadvantageous education and occupational status. There were also rising trends of voluntary childlessness among married childless individuals and increasing heterogeneity in pathways to childlessness across successive birth cohorts. In sum, our findings are consistent with some of the predictions of the Second Demographic Transition theory, suggesting that Singapore may be experiencing a demographic transition characterized by rising childlessness, decoupling of marriage and childbearing, and de-standardization of the life course.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yanwen Wang
- Department of Sociology and Anthropology, National University of Singapore, Singapore
| | - Bussarawan Teerawichitchainan
- Department of Sociology and Anthropology, National University of Singapore, Singapore; Centre for Family and Population Research, National University of Singapore, Singapore.
| | - Christine Ho
- School of Economics, Singapore Management University, Singapore
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Hacker JD, Helgertz J, Nelson MA, Roberts E. The Influence of Kin Proximity on the Reproductive Success of American Couples, 1900-1910. Demography 2021; 58:2337-2364. [PMID: 34605542 PMCID: PMC8670560 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-9518532] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/19/2022]
Abstract
Children require a large amount of time, effort, and resources to raise. Physical help, financial contributions, medical care, and other types of assistance from kin and social network members allow couples to space births closer together while maintaining or increasing child survival. We examine the impact of kin availability on couples' reproductive success in the early twentieth-century United States with a panel data set of over 3.1 million couples linked between the 1900 and 1910 U.S. censuses. Our results indicate that kin proximity outside the household was positively associated with fertility, child survival, and net reproduction, and suggest that declining kin availability was an important contributing factor to the fertility transition in the United States. We also find important differences between maternal and paternal kin inside the household-including higher fertility among women residing with their mother-in-law than among those residing with their mother-that support hypotheses related to the contrasting motivations and concerns of parents and parents-in-law.
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Affiliation(s)
- J David Hacker
- Department of History, University of Minnesota, Twin Cities, MN, USA
| | - Jonas Helgertz
- Minnesota Population Center, University of Minnesota, Twin Cities, MN, USA
| | - Matt A Nelson
- Minnesota Population Center, University of Minnesota, Twin Cities, MN, USA
| | - Evan Roberts
- Department of Sociology, University of Minnesota, Twin Cities, MN, USA
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Jaadla H, Reid A, Garrett E, Schürer K, Day J. Revisiting the Fertility Transition in England and Wales: The Role of Social Class and Migration. Demography 2021; 57:1543-1569. [PMID: 32613528 PMCID: PMC7441055 DOI: 10.1007/s13524-020-00895-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Abstract
We use individual-level census data for England and Wales for the period 1851–1911 to investigate the interplay between social class and geographical context determining patterns of childbearing during the fertility transition. We also consider the effect of spatial mobility or lifetime migration on individual fertility behavior in the early phases of demographic modernization. Prior research on the fertility transition in England and Wales has demonstrated substantial variation in fertility levels and declines by different social groups; however, these findings were generally reported at a broad geographical level, disguising local variation and complicated by residential segregation along social class and occupational lines. Our findings confirm a clear pattern of widening social class differences in recent net fertility, providing strong support for the argument that belonging to a certain social group was an important determinant of early adoption of new reproductive behavior in marriage in England and Wales. However, a relatively constant effect of lower net fertility among long-distance migrants both before the transition and in the early phases of declining fertility indicates that life course migration patterns were most likely factor in explaining the differences in fertility operating through postponement of marriage and childbearing.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hannaliis Jaadla
- Cambridge Group for the History of Population and Social Structure, Department of Geography, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, CB2 3EN, UK. .,Estonian Institute for Population Studies, Tallinn University, 10120, Tallinn, Estonia.
| | - Alice Reid
- Cambridge Group for the History of Population and Social Structure, Department of Geography, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, CB2 3EN, UK
| | - Eilidh Garrett
- Department of History, University of Essex, Colchester, CO4 3SQ, UK
| | - Kevin Schürer
- Centre for English Local History, University of Leicester, Leicester, LE1 7QR, England
| | - Joseph Day
- Cambridge Group for the History of Population and Social Structure, Department of Geography, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, CB2 3EN, UK
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Hacker JD, Haines MR, Jaremski M. Early Fertility Decline in the United States: Tests of Alternative Hypotheses using New IPUMS Complete-Count Census Microdata and Enhanced County-Level Data. RESEARCH IN ECONOMIC HISTORY 2021; 37:89-128. [PMID: 36032065 PMCID: PMC9409409] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
The U. S. fertility transition in the nineteenth century is unusual. Not only did it start from a very high fertility level and very early in the nation's development, but it also took place long before the nation's mortality transition, industrialization, and urbanization. This paper assembles new county-level, household-level, and individual-level data, including new complete-count IPUMS microdata databases of the 1830-1880 censuses, to evaluate different theories for the nineteenth-century American fertility transition. We construct cross-sectional models of net fertility for currently-married white couples in census years 1830-1880 and test the results with a subset of couples linked between the 1850-1860, 1860-1870, and 1870-1880 censuses. We find evidence of marital fertility control consistent with hypotheses as early as 1830. The results indicate support for several different but complementary theories of the early U.S. fertility decline, including the land availability, conventional structuralist, ideational, child demand/quality-quantity tradeoff, and life-cycle savings theories.
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Affiliation(s)
- J David Hacker
- University of Minnesota, Department of History, 1110 Heller Hall, 271 19th Ave S, Minneapolis, MN 55455
| | - Michael R Haines
- Department of Economics, 217 Persson Hall, Colgate University, 13 Oak Drive, Hamilton, NY 13346, and NBER
| | - Matthew Jaremski
- Utah State University, Department of Economics and Finance, 3565 Old Main Hill, Logan, UT 84322, and NBER
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Jennings JA. The association between network centrality and standard of living in a historical agrarian population. Am J Hum Biol 2019; 31:e23320. [PMID: 31507012 PMCID: PMC7087368 DOI: 10.1002/ajhb.23320] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/25/2019] [Revised: 07/22/2019] [Accepted: 08/19/2019] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE The aim of this study is to investigate the relationship between network centrality and living standards as measured by fertility and mortality responses to short-term economic stress. METHODS Cox proportional hazard models estimate the effects of staple grain price variation and eigenvector and beta centrality within marriage and labor networks on the timing of births and child mortality (1-14 years) in a historical demographic data set from North Orkney, Scotland, 1851-1911. RESULTS Households that are peripheral to the marriage and labor network experience lower chances of a birth when food prices are high. The fertility of more central households is less sensitive to price changes. A similar, but weaker, pattern holds for child mortality, which is also sensitive to price fluctuations, although the social gradient is not as clear. CONCLUSIONS Marriage and labor network centrality is an indicator of standard of living in this remote, agricultural population. Households that are firmly embedded in the network are able to overcome and adjust to short-term economic stress without demographic consequences, while those at the edges of the community experience delayed reproduction in poor years consistent with unplanned responses to stress.
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Affiliation(s)
- Julia A Jennings
- Department of Anthropology, University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, New York
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Hacker JD. Reconstruction of Birth Histories for the Study of Fertility in the United States, 1830-1910. HISTORICAL METHODS 2019; 53:28-52. [PMID: 34853487 PMCID: PMC8631723 DOI: 10.1080/01615440.2019.1664357] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
This paper describes a method to reconstruct complete birth histories for women in the 1900 and 1910 U. S. census IPUMS samples. The method is an extension of an earlier method developed by Luther and Cho (1988). The basic method relies on the number of children ever born, number of children surviving, number of children coresident in the household and age-specific fertility rates for the population to probabilistically assign an "age" to deceased and unmatched children. Modifications include the addition of an iterative Poisson regression model to fine-tune age-specific fertility inputs. The potential of complete birth histories for the study of the U.S. fertility transition is illustrated with a few examples.
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Affiliation(s)
- J David Hacker
- University of Minnesota, Department of History, College of Liberal Arts, 1110 Heller Hall/Del. Code 7062, 271 -- 19th Avenue South, Minneapolis, MN 55455
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Hacker JD, Roberts E. Fertility decline in the United States, 1850-1930: New Evidence from Complete-Count Datasets. ANNALES DE DEMOGRAPHIE HISTORIQUE 2019; 138:143-177. [PMID: 35795871 PMCID: PMC9255892 DOI: 10.3917/adh.138.0143] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
Between 1835 and 1935, total fertility in the United States fell from 7.0 to 2.1. New IPUMS complete-count microdata databases of the 1850, 1880, 1910, and 1930 U. S. censuses allow us to study the fertility decline in more detail than previously possible. We construct comprehensive models of couples' fertility incorporating a wide variety of economic, social, cultural and familial factors, including measures of parental religiosity and kin availability outside of the household. The results indicate that while shifts in the occupational structure and increasing urbanization of the population provide the most consistent and substantive contribution to fertility decline over the period, cultural and religious attitudes - as proxied by parents' nativities and child naming practices - played a major role in couples' childbearing decisions.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Evan Roberts
- Minnesota Population Center, University of Minnesota
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Martin D, David Hacker J, Francesco S. Becoming American: Intermarriage during the Great Migration to the United States. THE JOURNAL OF INTERDISCIPLINARY HISTORY 2018; 49:189-218. [PMID: 31527926 PMCID: PMC6746435 DOI: 10.1162/jinh_a_01266] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
Although intermarriage is a common indicator of immigrant integration into host societies, most research has focused on how individual characteristics determine intermarriage. This study uses the 1910 IPUMS census sample to analyze how contextual factors affected intermarriage among European immigrants in the United States. Newly available, complete-count census microdata permits the construction of contextual measures at a much lower level of aggregation-the county-in this analysis than in previous studies. Our results confirm most findings in previous research relating to individual-level variables but also find important associations between contextual factors and marital outcomes. The relative size and sex ratio of an origin group, ethnic diversity, the share of the native-born white population, and the proportion of life that immigrants spent in the United State are all associated with exogamy. These patterns are highly similar across genders and immigrant generations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dribe Martin
- Dept. of Economic History and Center for Economic Demography, Lund University
| | - J David Hacker
- Dept. of History and Minnesota Population Center, University of Minnesota
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Measuring and explaining the baby boom in the developed world in the mid-twentieth century. DEMOGRAPHIC RESEARCH 2018. [DOI: 10.4054/demres.2018.38.40] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/05/2022] Open
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The impact of kin availability, parental religiosity, and nativity on fertility differentials in the late 19th-century United States. DEMOGRAPHIC RESEARCH 2017; 37:1049-1080. [PMID: 29720893 DOI: 10.4054/demres.2017.37.34] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/05/2022] Open
Abstract
METHODS Most quantitative research on fertility decline in the United States ignores the potential impact of cultural and familial factors. We rely on new complete-count data from the 1880 U.S. census to construct couple-level measures of nativity/ethnicity, religiosity, and kin availability. We include these measures with a comprehensive set of demographic, economic, and contextual variables in Poisson regression models of net marital fertility to assess their relative importance. We construct models with and without area fixed effects to control for unobserved heterogeneity. CONTRIBUTION All else being equal, we find a strong impact of nativity on recent net marital fertility. Fertility differentials among second generation couples relative to the native-born white population of native parentage were in most cases less than half of the differential observed among first generation immigrants, suggesting greater assimilation to native-born American childbearing norms. Our measures of parental religiosity and familial propinquity indicated a more modest impact on marital fertility. Couples who chose biblical names for their children had approximately 3% more children than couples relying on secular names while the presence of a potential mother-in-law in a nearby households was associated with 2% more children. Overall, our results demonstrate the need for more inclusive models of fertility behavior that include cultural and familial covariates.
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