1
|
Mokryn O, Abbey A, Marmor Y, Shahar Y. Evaluating the dynamic interplay of social distancing policies regarding airborne pathogens through a temporal interaction-driven model that uses real-world and synthetic data. J Biomed Inform 2024; 151:104601. [PMID: 38307358 DOI: 10.1016/j.jbi.2024.104601] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/19/2023] [Revised: 12/18/2023] [Accepted: 01/27/2024] [Indexed: 02/04/2024]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE The recent SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has exhibited diverse patterns of spread across countries and communities, emphasizing the need to consider the underlying population dynamics in modeling its progression and the importance of evaluating the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical intervention strategies in combating viral transmission within human communities. Such an understanding requires accurate modeling of the interplay between the community dynamics and the disease propagation dynamics within the community. METHODS We build on an interaction-driven model of an airborne disease over contact networks that we have defined. Using the model, we evaluate the effectiveness of temporal, spatial, and spatiotemporal social distancing policies. Temporal social distancing involves a pure dilation of the timeline while preserving individual activity potential and thus prolonging the period of interaction; spatial distancing corresponds to social distancing pods; and spatiotemporal distancing pertains to the situation in which fixed subgroups of the overall group meet at alternate times. We evaluate these social distancing policies over real-world interactions' data and over history-preserving synthetic temporal random networks. Furthermore, we evaluate the policies for the disease's with different number of initial patients, corresponding to either the phase in the progression of the infection through a community or the number of patients infected together at the initial infection event. We expand our model to consider the exposure to viral load, which we correlate with the meetings' duration. RESULTS Our results demonstrate the superiority of decreasing social interactions (i.e., time dilation) within the community over partial isolation strategies, such as the spatial distancing pods and the spatiotemporal distancing strategy. In addition, we found that slow-spreading pathogens (i.e., pathogens that require a longer exposure to infect) spread roughly at the same rate as fast-spreading ones in highly active communities. This result is surprising since the pathogens may follow different paths. However, we demonstrate that the dilation of the timeline considerably slows the spread of the slower pathogens. CONCLUSIONS Our results demonstrate that the temporal dynamics of a community have a more significant effect on the spread of the disease than the characteristics of the spreading processes.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Osnat Mokryn
- Department of Information Systems, University of Haifa, Israel.
| | - Alex Abbey
- Department of Information Systems, University of Haifa, Israel
| | - Yanir Marmor
- Department of Information Systems, University of Haifa, Israel
| | - Yuval Shahar
- Department of Software and Information Systems Engineering, Ben Gurion University, Beer-Sheva, Israel
| |
Collapse
|
2
|
Christophi CA, Sotos-Prieto M, Lan FY, Delgado-Velandia M, Efthymiou V, Gaviola GC, Hadjivasilis A, Hsu YT, Kyprianou A, Lidoriki I, Wei CF, Rodriguez-Artalejo F, Kales SN. Ambient temperature and subsequent COVID-19 mortality in the OECD countries and individual United States. Sci Rep 2021; 11:8710. [PMID: 33888744 PMCID: PMC8062561 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-87803-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 28] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/14/2020] [Accepted: 04/05/2021] [Indexed: 12/23/2022] Open
Abstract
Epidemiological studies have yielded conflicting results regarding climate and incident SARS-CoV-2 infection, and seasonality of infection rates is debated. Moreover, few studies have focused on COVD-19 deaths. We studied the association of average ambient temperature with subsequent COVID-19 mortality in the OECD countries and the individual United States (US), while accounting for other important meteorological and non-meteorological co-variates. The exposure of interest was average temperature and other weather conditions, measured at 25 days prior and 25 days after the first reported COVID-19 death was collected in the OECD countries and US states. The outcome of interest was cumulative COVID-19 mortality, assessed for each region at 25, 30, 35, and 40 days after the first reported death. Analyses were performed with negative binomial regression and adjusted for other weather conditions, particulate matter, sociodemographic factors, smoking, obesity, ICU beds, and social distancing. A 1 °C increase in ambient temperature was associated with 6% lower COVID-19 mortality at 30 days following the first reported death (multivariate-adjusted mortality rate ratio: 0.94, 95% CI 0.90, 0.99, p = 0.016). The results were robust for COVID-19 mortality at 25, 35 and 40 days after the first death, as well as other sensitivity analyses. The results provide consistent evidence across various models of an inverse association between higher average temperatures and subsequent COVID-19 mortality rates after accounting for other meteorological variables and predictors of SARS-CoV-2 infection or death. This suggests potentially decreased viral transmission in warmer regions and during the summer season.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Costas A Christophi
- Cyprus International Institute for Environmental and Public Health, Cyprus University of Technology, 30 Archbishop Kyprianou Str., 3036, Lemesos, Cyprus.,Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Mercedes Sotos-Prieto
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.,Department of Preventive Medicine and Public Health, School of Medicine, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, IdiPaz (Instituto de Investigación Sanitaria Hospital Universitario La Paz), and CIBERESP (CIBER of Epidemiology and Public Health), Madrid, Spain
| | - Fan-Yun Lan
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.,Department of Occupational and Environmental Medicine, National Cheng Kung University Hospital, College of Medicine, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan, Taiwan
| | - Mario Delgado-Velandia
- Department of Preventive Medicine and Public Health, School of Medicine, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, IdiPaz (Instituto de Investigación Sanitaria Hospital Universitario La Paz), and CIBERESP (CIBER of Epidemiology and Public Health), Madrid, Spain
| | - Vasilis Efthymiou
- Department of Medicine, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens, Greece
| | - Gabriel C Gaviola
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Alexandros Hadjivasilis
- Cyprus International Institute for Environmental and Public Health, Cyprus University of Technology, 30 Archbishop Kyprianou Str., 3036, Lemesos, Cyprus
| | - Yu-Tien Hsu
- Department of Social and Behavioral Sciences, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Aikaterini Kyprianou
- Cyprus International Institute for Environmental and Public Health, Cyprus University of Technology, 30 Archbishop Kyprianou Str., 3036, Lemesos, Cyprus
| | - Irene Lidoriki
- First Department of Surgery, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Laikon General Hospital, Athens, Greece
| | - Chih-Fu Wei
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Fernando Rodriguez-Artalejo
- Department of Preventive Medicine and Public Health, School of Medicine, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, IdiPaz (Instituto de Investigación Sanitaria Hospital Universitario La Paz), and CIBERESP (CIBER of Epidemiology and Public Health), Madrid, Spain.,IMDEA-Food Institute, CEI UAM+CSIC, Madrid, Spain
| | - Stefanos N Kales
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA. .,Department of Occupational Medicine, Cambridge Health Alliance, Harvard Medical School, Macht Building 427, 1493 Cambridge Street, Cambridge, MA, 02139, USA.
| |
Collapse
|
3
|
Olusola-Makinde OO, Makinde OS. COVID-19 incidence and mortality in Nigeria: gender based analysis. PeerJ 2021; 9:e10613. [PMID: 33614262 PMCID: PMC7883696 DOI: 10.7717/peerj.10613] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/22/2020] [Accepted: 11/30/2020] [Indexed: 11/20/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been surging globally. Risk strata in medical attention are of dynamic significance for apposite assessment and supply distribution. Presently, no known cultured contrivance is available to fill this gap of this pandemic. The aim of this study is to develop a predictive model based on vector autoregressive moving average (VARMA) model of various orders for gender based daily COVID-19 incidence in Nigeria. This study also aims to proffer empirical evidence that compares incidence between male and female for COVID-19 risk factors. METHODS Wilcoxon signed-rank test is employed to investigate the significance of the difference in the gender distributions of the daily incidence. A VARMA model of various orders is formulated for the gender based daily COVID-19 incidence in Nigeria. The optimal VARMA model is identified using Bayesian information criterion. Also, a predictive model based on univariate autoregressive moving average model is formulated for the daily death cases in Nigeria. Fold change is estimated based on crude case-fatality risk to investigate whether there is massive underreporting and under-testing of COVID-19 cases in Nigeria. RESULTS Daily incidence is higher in males on most days from 11 April 2020 to 12 September 2020. Result of Wilcoxon signed-rank test shows that incidence among male is significantly higher than female (p-value < 2.22 × 10-16). White neural network test shows that daily female incidence is not linear in mean (p-value = 0.00058746) while daily male incidence is linear in mean (p-value = 0.4257). McLeod-Li test shows that there is autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity in the female incidence (Maximum p-value = 1.4277 × 10-5) and male incidence (Maximum p-value = 9.0816 × 10-14) at 5% level of significance. Ljung-Box test (Tsay, 2014) shows that the daily incidence cases are not random (p-value=0.0000). The optimal VARMA model for male and female daily incidence is VARMA (0,1). The optimal model for the Nigeria's daily COVID-19 death cases is identified to be ARIMA (0,1,1). There is no evidence of massive underreporting and under-testing of COVID-19 cases in Nigeria. CONCLUSIONS Comparison of the observed incidence with fitted data by gender shows that the optimal VARMA and ARIMA models fit the data well. Findings highlight the significant roles of gender on daily COVID-19 incidence in Nigeria.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
| | - Olusola S. Makinde
- Department of Statistics, Federal University of Technology, Akure, Akure, Ondo, Nigeria
| |
Collapse
|