Association of chronic kidney disease with outcomes in acute stroke

Development and validation of a novel nomogram to predict overall survival of patients with moderate to severe chronic kidney disease

Introduction

The risk of death significantly increased from stage 3 chronic kidney disease (CKD) onward. We aimed to construct a novel nomogram to predict the overall survival (OS) of patients afflicted with CKD from stage 3–5.

Methods

A total of 882 patients with stage 3–5 CKD were enrolled from the NHANES 2001–2004 survey. Data sets from the 2003–2004 survey population were used to develop a nomogram that would predict the risk of OS. The 2001–2002 survey population was used to validate the nomogram. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso) regression was conducted to screen the significant predictors relative to all-cause death. The multivariate Cox regression based on the screened factors was applied to effectively construct the nomogram. The performance of the nomogram was evaluated according to the C-index, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), and the calibration curve with 1000 bootstraps resample. Kaplan–Meier’s curves were used for testing the discrimination of the prediction model.

Results

Five variables (age, urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR), potassium, cystatin C (Cys C), and homocysteine) were screened by the Lasso regression. The nomogram was constructed using these factors, as well as the CKD stage. The included factors (age, CKD stage, UACR, potassium, Cys C, and homocysteine) were all significantly related to the death of CKD patients, according to the multivariate Cox regression analysis. The internal validation showed that this nomogram demonstrates good discrimination and calibration (adjusted C-index: 0.70; AUC of 3-, 5-, and 10-year OS were 0.75, 0.78, and 0.77, respectively). External validation also demonstrated exceedingly similar results (C-index: 0.72, 95% CI: 0.69–0.76; AUC of 3-, 5-, and 10-year OS were 0.76, 0.79, and 0.80, respectively).

Conclusions

This study effectively constructed a novel nomogram that incorporates CKD stage, age, UACR, potassium, Cys C, and homocysteine, which can be conveniently used to facilitate the individualized prediction of survival probability in patients with stage 3–5 CKD. It displays valuable potential for clinical application.

Stroke Incidence, Rate of Thrombolytic Therapy, Mortality in Thailand from 2009 to 2021

BACKGROUND: Thrombolytic treatment is the main treatment of acute ischemic stroke. Thailand started thrombolytic treatment in 2008 only at university hospitals in Bangkok and gradually increased services in large provincial hospitals until widespread in 2014. However, no studies regard the services in stroke management in Thailand. AIM: This study aims to present data: incidence, rate of thrombolytic treatment, mortality rate of acute stroke in Thailand for 13 years METHODS: A study from the National Health Security Office's database between 2009 and 2021 was reported using percentage statistics, and the number of patients per 100,000 population. RESULTS: The overall incidence of acute stroke patients aged 15 years and over was 172.33- 328.00 per 100,000 population. The incidence of acute ischemic stroke patients aged 15 years and over was 90.37-222.73 per 100,000 population. The incidence of non-traumatic intracerebral hemorrhage patients aged 15 years and over was 55.77-87.63 per 100,000 population. Rate of acute ischemic stroke patients who treated with thrombolytic treatment was 0.18-8.04%. Mortality rate of acute stroke patients was 10.24-14.77%. Mortality rate of acute ischemic stroke patients who treated with thrombolytic treatment was 3.97-10.53%. CONCLUSIONS: Stroke incidence tends to increase over 13 years. Acute ischemic stroke patients receiving thrombolytic treatment tends to increase in number. The mortality rate in patients with acute stroke tends to decline. Especially in patients with acute ischemic stroke, the mortality rate was greatly reduced.