A Novel Dynamic Model for Health Economic Analysis of Influenza Vaccination in the Elderly

Real-World Evidence in Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Enhanced Influenza Vaccines in Adults ≥ 65 Years of Age: Literature Review and Expert Opinion

Influenza vaccination can benefit most populations, including adults ≥ 65 years of age, who are at greater risk of influenza-related complications. In many countries, enhanced vaccines, such as adjuvanted, high-dose, and recombinant trivalent/quadrivalent influenza vaccines (aTIV/aQIV, HD-TIV/HD-QIV, and QIVr, respectively), are recommended in older populations to provide higher immunogenicity and increased relative vaccine efficacy/effectiveness (rVE) than standard-dose vaccines. This review explores how efficacy and effectiveness data from randomized controlled trials and real-world evidence (RWE) are used in economic evaluations. Findings from published cost-effectiveness analyses (CEA) on enhanced influenza vaccines for older adults are summarized, and the assumptions and approaches used in these CEA are assessed alongside discussion of the importance of RWE in CEA. Results from many CEA showed that adjuvanted and high-dose enhanced vaccines were cost-effective compared with standard vaccines, and that differences in rVE estimates and acquisition price may drive differences in cost-effectiveness estimates between enhanced vaccines. Overall, RWE and CEA provide clinical and economic rationale for enhanced vaccine use in people ≥ 65 years of age, an at-risk population with substantial burden of disease. Countries that consider RWE when making vaccine recommendations have preferentially recommended aTIV/aQIV, as well as HD-TIV/HD-QIV and QIVr, to protect older individuals.

Comparisons in the Health and Economic Assessments of Using Quadrivalent Versus Trivalent Influenza Vaccines: A Systematic Literature Review

OBJECTIVES

Seasonal influenza vaccines protect against 3 (trivalent influenza vaccine [IIV3]) or 4 (quadrivalent influenza vaccine [IIV4]) viruses. IIV4 costs more than IIV3, and there is a trade-off between incremental cost and protection. This is especially the case in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) with limited budgets; previous reviews have not identified studies of IIV4-IIV3 comparisons in LMICs. We summarized the literature that compared health and economic outcomes of IIV4 and IIV3, focused on LMICs.

METHODS

We systematically searched 5 databases for articles published before October 6, 2021, that modeled health or economic effects of IIV4 versus IIV3. We abstracted data and compared findings among countries and models.

RESULTS

Thirty-eight studies fit our selection criteria; 10 included LMICs. Most studies (N = 31) reported that IIV4 was cost-saving or cost-effective compared with IIV3; we observed no difference in health or economic outcomes between LMICs and other countries. Based on cost differences of influenza vaccines, only one study compared coverage of IIV3 with IIV4 and reported that the maximum IIV4 price that would still yield greater public health impact than IIV3 was 13% to 22% higher than IIV3.

CONCLUSIONS

When vaccination coverage with IIV4 and IIV3 is the same, IIV4 tends to be not only more effective but more cost-effective than IIV3, even with relatively high price differences between vaccine types. Alternatively, where funding is limited as in most LMICs, higher vaccine coverage can be achieved with IIV3 than IIV4, which could result in more favorable health and economic outcomes.

Cost Effectiveness of Quadrivalent Versus Trivalent Inactivated Influenza Vaccines for the Portuguese Elderly Population

Background: quadrivalent inactivated vaccine (QIV) has replaced trivalent inactivated vaccine (TIV). In Portugal, TIV is free of charge for risk groups, including older adults (≥65 years old). In its turn, QIV—which provides broader protection as it includes an additional lineage B strain—was introduced in Portugal in October 2018; only since the 2019/20 influenza season has it been provided free of charge for risk groups. This study evaluates the cost effectiveness of switching from TIV to QIV, from the National Health Service perspective, in the Portuguese elderly mainland population. Methods: A decision tree model was developed to compare TIV and QIV, based on Portuguese hospitalization data for the 2015/16 influenza season. The primary health economic outcome under consideration was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). In addition, one-way sensitivity analysis and probabilistic sensitivity analysis were performed. Results: the high cost of QIV (approximately three times the cost of TIV) would lead to a total increment of EUR 5,283,047, and the resulting ICER would be EUR 26,403,007/QALY, above the usual willingness-to-pay threshold. Conclusions: from the National Health Service perspective, our findings reveal that QIV is not cost effective for the Portuguese elderly population due to the high cost. If the QIV costs were the same as the TIV, then QIV would be cost effective.

Cost-effectiveness of introducing an MF59-adjuvanted trivalent influenza vaccine for older adults in Argentina

INTRODUCTION

Influenza surveillance in Argentina reported influenza-like illness at a rate of 3500/100,000, a hospitalization rate of 15.5/100,000, and a death rate of 0.32/100,000 annually in adults aged over 65 years. The high burden of disease may be due to a combination of immunosenescence and the suboptimal clinical effectiveness of conventional, non-adjuvanted influenza vaccines in this age group. There is a clinical need for more effective influenza vaccines in this population. This study evaluated the cost-effectiveness of an MF59®-adjuvanted trivalent influenza vaccine (aTIV) in adults aged over 65 years in Argentina compared with the non-adjuvanted trivalent influenza vaccine (TIV) used under the current national vaccination policy.

METHODS

A decision tree cost-effectiveness model was developed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of switching from TIV to aTIV in Argentinian older adults. The model compared cost and health benefits of vaccination in one influenza season from the payer perspective. The main predictions included survival, quality-adjusted survival, and costs. Model inputs were sourced from Argentina or internationally where local data was considered inaccurate. Vaccine efficacy assumptions were extracted from recently published, peer-reviewed scientific literature.

RESULTS

Switching from TIV to aTIV would result in 170 deaths averted and 1310 incremental quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio per QALY was US $2660.59 from the payer perspective. In all sensitivity analyses, aTIV remained highly cost-effective. The probabilistic sensitivity analyses showed a 95% CI per QALY of US $113.74-7721.67.

CONCLUSION

Introducing an adjuvanted influenza vaccine in Argentina is potentially beneficial and cost-effective relative to the currently-used TIV through the reduction of disease burden and utilization of healthcare resources.

Adjuvanted influenza vaccine for the Italian elderly in the 2018/19 season: an updated health technology assessment

BACKGROUND

The elderly, defined here as subjects aged ≥ 65 years, are among at-risk subjects for whom annual influenza vaccination is recommended. For the 2018/19 season, three vaccine types are available for the elderly in Italy: trivalent inactivated vaccine (TIV), adjuvanted TIV (aTIV) and quadrivalent inactivated vaccines (QIV). No health technology assessment (HTA) of seasonal influenza vaccination in the elderly has previously been conducted in Italy.

METHODS

An HTA was conducted in 2017 to analyze the burden of influenza illness, the characteristics, efficacy, safety and cost-effectiveness of available vaccines and the related organizational and ethical implications. This was then contextualized to the 2018/19 influenza season. Comprehensive literature reviews/analyses were performed and a static mathematical model developed in order to address the above issues.

RESULTS

In Italy, influenza is usually less common in the elderly than in other age-classes, but the burden of disease is the highest; >10% of infected elderly subjects develop complications, and about 90% of all influenza-related deaths occur in this age-class. All available vaccines are effective, safe and acceptable from an ethical standpoint. However, aTIV has proved more immunogenic and effective in the elderly. Furthermore, from the third payer's perspective, aTIV is highly cost-effective and cost-saving in comparison with TIV and QIV, respectively. Nevertheless, vaccination coverage needs to be improved.

CONCLUSIONS

According to this HTA, aTIV appeared the vaccine of choice in the elderly. HTA should be reapplied whenever new relevant data become available.

Use of adjuvanted trivalent influenza vaccine in older-age adults: a systematic review of economic evidence

Seasonal influenza is a very common disease. Yearly vaccination of at-risk population groups is a well-recognized cost-effective/cost-saving preventive measure. It is, however, unclear which available alternative has the most favorable economic profile. Some available options are: trivalent (TIV) and quadrivalent (QIV) inactivated vaccines, adjuvanted TIV (aTIV). Because of immunosenescence, aTIV has been specifically developed for elderly. The present study aimed at assessing the available evidence of aTIV use in elderly from the economic perspective. A systematic literature review targeting aTIV economic evaluations in adults aged ≥65 years was performed using Medline via Ovid, Embase, DARE and NHS/EED. Of a total of 3,654 papers screened, 18 studies (13 full papers, 5 conference abstracts) were included. It emerged that compared with both non-vaccination or non-adjuvanted vaccines, aTIV was cost-effective or cost-saving. The vaccinations strategies incorporating aTIV based on age and/or risk profile are associated with the most favorable economic outcomes.

[Seasonal flu vaccination for older people: Evaluation of the quadrivalent vaccine. Positioning report]

Influenza is a significant health problem, particularly in those persons susceptible to having associated complications, older people, children less than 2 years, patients with chronic diseases, immunocompromised patients, and pregnant women. But influenza also has a large impact on the health system, with an increase in the healthcare demand and a spectacular increase in outpatient visits, overloading the emergency and hospital services. During epidemic outbreaks, the hospital admission rates of people over 65 years are at a maximum, and the mortality notified for the 2017/2018 influenza season was 960 deaths. The seasonal anti-influenza vaccine is the method with a better cost-effective ratio of primary prevention of influenza, reducing associated respiratory diseases, the number of hospital admissions, and deaths in high risk individuals, as well as work absenteeism in adults. In the last few years, influenza B has received little attention in the scientific literature, although in the periods between epidemics influenza B can be one of the main causes of seasonal epidemics, causing considerable morbidity and mortality and an increase in costs. The quadrivalent vaccine has a second-line immunological protection against influenza B, and according to a critical review of the scientific literature, it provides wider protection without affecting immunogenicity of the other three vaccine strains common to the trivalent and tetravalent vaccine. The quadrivalent vaccine is cost-effective in reducing the number of influenza cases, and is always a worthwhile intervention, with a significant cost saving for the health system and for society, by reducing the hospital admission rates and mortality associated with the complications of influenza. Supplement information: This article is part of a supplement entitled 'Seasonal flu vaccination for older people: Evaluation of the quadrivalent vaccine' which is sponsored by Sanofi-Aventis, S.A.

Heterogeneous estimates of influenza virus types A and B in the elderly: Results of a meta-regression analysis

Influenza has many age‐dependent characteristics. A previous systematic review of randomized controlled trials showed that the detection rate of influenza B was higher in children than in non‐elderly adults. However, no comprehensive reviews have targeted the elderly, who carry the main burden of disease. We aimed to quantify the relative detection rates of virus types A and B among the elderly, to identify factors affecting these proportions, and to compare type distribution among seniors and younger age‐classes. A comprehensive literature search was conducted to identify multiseason studies reporting A and B virus type distributions in the elderly. A random‐effects meta‐analysis was planned to quantify the prevalence of type B among elderly subjects with laboratory‐confirmed influenza. Meta‐regression was then applied to explain the sources of heterogeneity. Across 27 estimates identified, the type B detection rate among seniors varied from 5% to 37%. Meta‐analysis was not feasible owing to high heterogeneity (I² = 98.5%). Meta‐regression analysis showed that study characteristics, such as number of seasons included, hemisphere, and setting, could have contributed to the heterogeneity observed. The final adjusted model showed that studies that included both outpatients and inpatients reported a significantly (P = .024) lower proportion than those involving outpatients only. The detection rate of type B among the elderly was generally lower than in children/adolescents, but not non‐elderly adults. Influenza virus type B has a relatively low detection rate in older adults, especially in settings covering both inpatients and outpatients. Public health implications are discussed.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of different seasonal influenza vaccines in the elderly Italian population

In the perspective of reaching at least 75% influenza vaccination coverage in the elderly and substantial budget constraints, Italian decision makers are facing important challenges in determining an optimal immunization strategy for this growing and particularly vulnerable population. Four different influenza vaccines are currently available for Italian older adults aged 65 years or above, namely trivalent inactivated vaccines (TIVs), MF59-adjuvanted TIV (MF59-TIV), intradermal TIV (ID-TIV) and quadrivalent inactivated vaccines (QIVs). The present study is the first to compare the cost-effectiveness profiles of virtually all possible public health strategies, including the aforementioned four vaccine formulations as well non-vaccination. For this purpose, a decision tree model was built ex novo; the analysis was conducted from the third-payer perspective in the timeframe of one year. All available vaccines were cost-effective compared with non-vaccination. However, MF59-TIV had the most favorable economic profile in the Italian elderly population. Indeed, compared with non-vaccination, it was deemed highly cost-effective with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of €10,750 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY). The ICER was much lower (€4,527/QALY) when MF59-TIV was directly compared with TIV. ID-TIV and QIV were dominated by MF59-TIV as the former comparators were associated with greater total costs and lower health benefits. Both deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses confirmed robustness of the base case results. From the economic perspective, MF59-TIV should be considered as a preferential choice for Italian older adults aged 65 years or above.

A systematic review of the health economic consequences of quadrivalent influenza vaccination

BACKGROUND

Quadrivalent influenza vaccines (QIVs) contain antigens derived from an additional influenza type B virus as compared with currently used trivalent influenza vaccines (TIVs). This should overcome a potential reduced vaccine protection due to mismatches between TIV and circulating B viruses. In this study, we systematically reviewed the available literature on health economic evaluations of switching from TIV to QIV. Areas covered: The databases of Medline and Embase were searched systematically to identify health economic evaluations of QIV versus TIV published before September 2016.A total of sixteen studies were included, thirteen cost-effectiveness analyses and three cost-comparisons. Expert commentary: Published evidence on the cost-effectiveness of QIV suggests that switching from TIV to QIV would be a valuable intervention from both the public health and economic viewpoint. However, more research seems mandatory. Our main recommendations for future research include: 1) more extensive use of dynamic models in order to estimate the full impact of QIV on influenza transmission including indirect effects, 2) improved availability of data on disease outcomes and costs related to influenza type B viruses, and 3) more research on immunogenicity of natural influenza infection and vaccination, with emphasis on cross-reactivity between different influenza B viruses and duration of protection.

A review of the value of quadrivalent influenza vaccines and their potential contribution to influenza control

The contribution of influenza B to the seasonal influenza burden varies from year-to-year. Although 2 antigenically distinct influenza B virus lineages have co-circulated since 2001, trivalent influenza vaccines (TIVs) contain antigens from only one influenza B virus. B-mismatch or co-circulation of both B lineages results in increased morbidity and mortality attributable to the B lineage absent from the vaccine. Quadrivalent vaccines (QIVs) contain both influenza B lineages. We reviewed currently licensed QIVs and their value by focusing on the preventable disease burden. Modeling studies support that QIVs are expected to prevent more influenza cases, hospitalisations and deaths than TIVs, although estimates of the case numbers prevented vary according to local specificities. The value of QIVs is demonstrated by their capacity to broaden the immune response and reduce the likelihood of a B-mismatched season. Some health authorities have preferentially recommended QIVs over TIVs in their influenza prevention programmes.

Costs associated with influenza-related hospitalization in the elderly

Seasonal influenza epidemics remain a considerable burden in adults, especially in those at higher risk of complications. The aim of this study was to determine the costs associated with influenza-related hospitalization in patients aged ≥65 y admitted to 20 hospitals from 7 Spanish regions during the 2013-14 and 2014-15 influenza seasons. Bivariate analysis was used to compare costs in vaccinated and unvaccinated cases. Costs were calculated according to the Spanish National Health System diagnosis-related group tables for influenza and other respiratory system conditions (GRD 89 and GRD 101). A total of 728 confirmed influenza cases were recorded: 52.9% were male, 46.7% were aged 75-84 years, and 49.3% received influenza vaccine ≥15 d prior to hospital admission. Influenza-related mean hospitalization costs (MHC) were € 1,184,808 in unvaccinated and € 1,152,333 in vaccinated cases (2.75% lower). Influenza vaccination showed significant protection against ICU admission (OR 0.35, 95%CI 0.21-0.59; p < 0001); mechanical ventilation (OR 0.56, 95%CI 0.39-0.80; p = 0.002); secondary bacterial pneumonia (OR 0.61, 95%CI 0.39-0.98; p = 0.04) and a higher degree of dependence (OR 0.74, 95%CI 0.55-0.99; p = 0.04). No association was observed for the Charlson comorbidity index or the mean hospital stay. Although influenza vaccination of the elderly may not achieve significant savings in mean hospitalization costs, it may lessen the degree of severity and avoid complications.