Semi-Mechanistic Model for Predicting the Dosing Rate in Children and Neonates for Drugs Mainly Eliminated by Cytochrome Metabolism

Model-informed drug development in pediatric, pregnancy and geriatric drug development: States of the art and future

The challenges of drug development in pediatric, pregnant and geriatric populations are a worldwide concern shared by regulatory authorities, pharmaceutical companies, and healthcare professionals. Model-informed drug development (MIDD) can integrate and quantify real-world data of physiology, pharmacology, and disease processes by using modeling and simulation techniques to facilitate decision-making in drug development. In this article, we reviewed current MIDD policy updates, reflected on the integrity of physiological data used for MIDD and the effects of physiological changes on the drug PK, as well as summarized current MIDD strategies and applications, so as to present the state of the art of MIDD in pediatric, pregnant and geriatric populations. Some considerations are put forth for the future improvements of MIDD including refining regulatory considerations, improving the integrity of physiological data, applying the emerging technologies, and exploring the application of MIDD in new therapies like gene therapies for special populations.

Machine learning in medication prescription: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

Medication prescription is a complex process that could benefit from current research and development in machine learning through decision support systems. Particularly pediatricians are forced to prescribe medications "off-label" as children are still underrepresented in clinical studies, which leads to a high risk of an incorrect dose and adverse drug effects.

METHODS

PubMed, IEEE Xplore and PROSPERO were searched for relevant studies that developed and evaluated well-performing machine learning algorithms following the PRISMA statement. Quality assessment was conducted in accordance with the IJMEDI checklist. Identified studies were reviewed in detail, including the required variables for predicting the correct dose, especially of pediatric medication prescription.

RESULTS

The search identified 656 studies, of which 64 were reviewed in detail and 36 met the inclusion criteria. According to the IJMEDI checklist, five studies were considered to be of high quality. 19 of the 36 studies dealt with the active substance warfarin. Overall, machine learning algorithms based on decision trees or regression methods performed superior regarding their predictive power than algorithms based on neural networks, support vector machines or other methods. The use of ensemble methods like bagging or boosting generally enhanced the accuracy of the dose predictions. The required input and output variables of the algorithms were considerably heterogeneous and differ strongly among the respective substance.

CONCLUSIONS

By using machine learning algorithms, the prescription process could be simplified and dosing correctness could be enhanced. Despite the heterogenous results among the different substances and cases and the lack of pediatric use cases, the identified approaches and required variables can serve as an excellent starting point for further development of algorithms predicting drug doses, particularly for children. Especially the combination of physiologically-based pharmacokinetic models with machine learning algorithms represents a great opportunity to enhance the predictive power and accuracy of the developed algorithms.

Spreadsheet-Based Minimal Physiological Models for the Prediction of Clearance of Therapeutic Proteins in Pediatric Patients

There is a growing interest in the use of physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models as clinical pharmacology drug development tools. In PBPK modeling, not every organ or physiological parameter is required, leading to the development of a minimal PBPK (mPBPK) model, which is simple and efficient. The objective of this study was to streamline mPBPK modeling approaches and enable straightforward prediction of clearance of protein-based products in children. Four mPBPK models for scaling clearance from adult to children were developed and evaluated on Excel spreadsheets using (1) liver and kidneys; (2) liver, kidneys, and skin; (3) liver, kidneys, skin, and lymph; and (4) interstitial, lymph, and plasma volume. There were 35 therapeutic proteins with a total of 113 observations across different age groups (premature neonates to adolescents). For monoclonal and polyclonal antibodies, more than 90% of observations were within a 0.5- to 2-fold prediction error for all 4 methods. For nonantibodies, 79% to 100% of observations were within the 0.5- to 2-fold prediction error for the 4 different methods. Methods 1 and 4 provided the best results, >90% of the total observations were within the 0.5- to 2-fold prediction error for all 3 classes of protein-based products across a wide age range. The precision of clearance prediction was comparatively lower in children ≤2 years of age vs older children (>2 years of age) with methods 1 and 4 predicting 80% to 100% and 75% to 90% of observations within the 0.5- to 2-fold prediction error, respectively. The results of the study indicated that mPBPK models can be developed on spreadsheets, with acceptable performance for prediction of clearance.

Drug Dosing Recommendations for All Patients: A Roadmap for Change

Most drug labels do not contain dosing recommendations for a significant portion of real‐world patients for whom the drug is prescribed. Current label recommendations predominately reflect the population studied in pivotal trials that typically exclude patients who are very young or old, emaciated or morbidly obese, pregnant, or have multiple characteristics likely to influence dosing. As a result, physicians may need to guess the correct dose and regimen for these patients. It is now feasible to provide dose and regimen recommendations for these patients by integrating available scientific knowledge and by utilizing or modifying current regulatory agency‐industry practices. The purpose of this commentary is to explore several factors that should be considered in creating a process that will provide more effective, safe, and timely drug dosing recommendations for most, if not all, patients. These factors include the availability of real‐world data, development of predictive models, experience with the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA)’s pediatric exclusivity program, development of clinical decision software, funding mechanisms like the Prescription Drug Users Fee Act (PDUFA), and harmonization of global regulatory policies. From an examination of these factors, we recommend a relatively simple, efficient expansion of current practices designed to predict, confirm, and continuously improve drug dosing for more patients. We believe implementing these recommendations will benefit patients, payers, industry, and regulatory agencies.

An Explorative Study of CYP2D6’s Polymorphism in a Sample of Chronic Pain Patients

Background

A proper antalgic treatment is based on the use of titrated drugs to provide adequate relief and a good tolerability profile. Therapies have a variable effectiveness among subjects depending on medical and genetic conditions. CYP2D6 variations determine a different clinical response to most analgesic drugs commonly used in daily clinical practice by influencing the drugs’ pharmacokinetics. This study was a monocentric clinical trial exploring the CYP2D6 variants in 100 patients with a diagnosis of chronic pain.

Methods

DNA was extracted to evaluate the genotype and to classify patients as normal-fast (gNMs-F), normal-slow (gNMs-S), ultrarapid (gUMs), intermediate (gIMs), and poor metabolizers (gPMs) using the Activity Score (AS). Information on therapies and general side effects experienced by patients was collected. Nongenetic co-factors were evaluated to examine the discrepancy between metabolic profile predicted from genotype (gPh) and metabolic profile (phenocopying).

Results

The distribution of our data underlined the prevalence of the gNMs-F (67%), whereas gNMs-S were 24%, gIMs 6%, gPMs 3%, and no gUMs were found, resulting in 33% of patients with reduced metabolic activity. In the analyzed population sample, 86% and 56% of patients, respectively, took at least one or two drugs inhibiting in vitro activity of the CYP2D6 enzyme.

Conclusions

Over one-third of the enrolled patients showed altered CYP2D6 enzymatic metabolic activity, with a risk of phenocopying potentially due to polypharmacology.

Trial registration

ClinicalTrials.gov ID: NCT03411759.