Future Costs in Cost-Effectiveness Analyses: Past, Present, Future

On spillovers in economic evaluations: definition, mapping review and research agenda

An important issue in economic evaluations is determining whether all relevant impacts are considered, given the perspective chosen for the analysis. Acknowledging that patients are not isolated individuals has important implications in this context. Increasingly, the term "spillovers" is used to label consequences of health interventions on others. However, a clear definition of spillovers is lacking, and as a result, the scope of the concept remains unclear. In this study, we aim to clarify the concept of spillovers by proposing a definition applicable in health economic evaluations. To illustrate the implications of this definition, we highlight the diversity of potential spillovers through an expanded impact inventory and conduct a mapping review that outlines the evidence base for the different types of spillovers. In the context of economic evaluations of health interventions, we define spillovers as all impacts from an intervention on all parties or entities other than the users of the intervention under evaluation. This definition encompasses a broader range of potential costs and effects, beyond informal caregivers and family members. The expanded impact inventory enables a systematic approach to identifying broader impacts of health interventions. The mapping review shows that the relevance of different types of spillovers is context-specific. Some spillovers are regularly included in economic evaluations, although not always recognised as such, while others are not. A consistent use of the term "spillovers", improved measurement of these costs and effects, and increased transparency in reporting them are still necessary. To that end, we propose a research agenda.

An overview of the perspectives used in health economic evaluations

The term 'perspective' in the context of economic evaluations and costing studies in healthcare refers to the viewpoint that an analyst has adopted to define the types of costs and outcomes to consider in their studies. However, there are currently notable variations in terms of methodological recommendations, definitions, and applications of different perspectives, depending on the objective or intended user of the study. This can make it a complex area for stakeholders when interpreting these studies. Consequently, there is a need for a comprehensive overview regarding the different types of perspectives employed in such analyses, along with the corresponding implications of their use. This is particularly important, in the context of low-and-middle-income countries (LMICs), where practical guidelines may be less well-established and infrastructure for conducting economic evaluations may be more limited. This article addresses this gap by summarising the main types of perspectives commonly found in the literature to a broad audience (namely the patient, payer, health care providers, healthcare sector, health system, and societal perspectives), providing their most established definitions and outlining the corresponding implications of their uses in health economic studies, with examples particularly from LMIC settings. We then discuss important considerations when selecting the perspective and present key arguments to consider when deciding whether the societal perspective should be used. We conclude that there is no one-size-fits-all answer to what perspective should be used and the perspective chosen will be influenced by the context, policymakers'/stakeholders' viewpoints, resource/data availability, and intended use of the analysis. Moving forward, considering the ongoing issues regarding the variation in terminology and practice in this area, we urge that more standardised definitions of the different perspectives and the boundaries between them are further developed to support future studies and guidelines, as well as to improve the interpretation and comparison of health economic evidence.

The economic burden of diseases in the Nordic countries: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

Economic burden studies can provide insights into the drivers leading to increasing healthcare costs. It can also provide a more holistic view of how diseases impact the welfare of patients and their families. Having concrete estimates of the economic burden across multiple diseases can help policymakers determine which diseases are economically more burdensome. This study aimed to review and summarise comprehensively economic burden studies across multiple diseases in the Nordic countries between 2000 and 2020.

METHODS

According to the 2020 PRISMA statement, a systematic literature review was conducted in PubMed, CINAHL, Academic Search Premier and Global Health databases using key terms related to the economic burden of any disease in Denmark, Finland, Greenland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden. Grey literature was also reviewed.

RESULTS

A total of 10,050 potential titles and abstracts were identified and screened, and 254 full-text papers that met the inclusion criteria were evaluated by two independent reviewers. Of these, 119 articles were included in a qualitative synthesis. Twenty-nine had clearly defined comparison groups, thus able to attribute the costs to the disease. Large variations concerning methodology and cost components were noted. Across diseases, the economic burden ranged from EUR 1668 per patient annually for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to EUR 93,041 for multiple sclerosis. However, estimates varied widely, even within each disease.

CONCLUSIONS

Our review highlights the need for more comparable economic burden studies. Future studies should focus on applying robust methodology and homogeneous cost-reporting methods to inform policymakers about which diseases are economically more burdensome.

Promoting advanced medical services in the framework of 3PM-a proof-of-concept by the "Centro" Region of Portugal

Multidisciplinary team from three universities based in the "Centro" Region of Portugal developed diverse approaches as parts of a project dedicated to enhancing and expanding Predictive, Preventive, and Personalized Medicine (3PM) in the Region. In a sense, outcomes acted as a proof-of-concept, in that they demonstrated the feasibility, but also the relevance of the approaches. The accomplishments comprise defining a new regional strategy for implementing 3PM within the Region, training of human resources in genomic sequencing, and generating good practices handbooks dedicated to diagnostic testing via next-generation sequencing, to legal and ethical concerns, and to knowledge transfer and entrepreneurship, aimed at increasing literacy on 3PM approaches. Further approaches also included support for entrepreneurship development and start-ups, and diverse and relevant initiatives aimed at increasing literacy relevant to 3PM. Efforts to enhance literacy encompassed citizens across the board, from patients and high school students to health professionals and health students. This focus on empowerment through literacy involved a variety of initiatives, including the creation of an illustrated book on genomics and the production of two theater plays centered on genetics. Additionally, authors stressed that genomic tools are relevant, but they are not the only resources 3PM is based on. Thus, they defend that other initiatives intended to enable citizens to take 3PM should include multi-omics and, having in mind the socio-economic burden of chronic diseases, suboptimal health status approaches in the 3PM framework should also be considered, in order to anticipate medical intervention in the subclinical phase.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13167-024-00353-9.

Context-Specific Estimation of Future Unrelated Medical Costs and Their Impact on Cost-Effectiveness Analyses

OBJECTIVES

This study constructed and applied procedures for the estimation of unrelated future medical costs (UFMC) of women with breast cancer in Israel (as a case study) and examined the influence of including UFMC in cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs).

METHODS

Part I consisted of a retrospective cohort study based on patient-level claims data of both patients with breast cancer and matched controls during 14 years of follow-up. UFMC were estimated as (a) the annual average all-cause healthcare costs of the control subjects, and (b) as predicted values based on a generalized linear model (GLM) adjusted to patients' characteristics. Part II consisted of a CEA performed using a Markov simulation model comparing regimens of chemotherapy with/without trastuzumab, both excluding and including UFMC and for each of the UFMC estimates separately. All costs were adjusted to 2019 prices. Costs and QALYs were discounted at a yearly rate of 3%.

RESULTS

The average annual healthcare costs in the control group were $2328 (± $5662). The corresponding incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was $53,411/QALY and $55,903/QALY, when UFMC were excluded or included, respectively. Hence, trastuzumab was not considered cost-effective compared with a threshold of willingness-to-pay of $37,000 per QALY, regardless of the inclusion of UFMC. When UFMC were estimated on the basis of the prediction model, the ICERs were $37,968/QALY and $39,033/QALY, when UFMC were excluded or included, respectively. Thus, in this simulation, trastuzumab was not considered cost-effective, independent of the inclusion of UFMC.

CONCLUSION

Our case study revealed that the inclusion of UFMC had modest effect on the ICERs, and thus did not alter the conclusion. Thus, we should estimate context-specific UFMC if they are expected to change the ICERs significantly, and transparently report the corresponding assumptions to uphold the integrity and reliability of the economic evaluation.

Informal Care Costs According to Age and Proximity to Death to Support Cost-Effectiveness Analyses

BACKGROUND

Costs of informal care are ignored in many cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs) conducted from a societal perspective; however, these costs are relevant for lifesaving interventions targeted at the older population. In this study, we estimated informal care costs by age and proximity to death across European regions and showed how these estimates can be included in CEAs.

METHODS

We estimated informal care costs by age and proximity to death using generalised linear mixed-effects models. For this, we selected deceased singles from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement, which we grouped by four European regions. We combined the estimates of informal care costs with life tables to illustrate the impact of including informal care costs on the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of a hypothetical intervention that prevents a death at different ages.

RESULTS

Informal care use, and hence informal care costs, increase when approaching death and with increasing age. The impact of including informal care costs on the ICER varies between €200 and €17,700 per quality-adjusted life-year gained. The impact increases with age and is stronger for women and in southern European countries.

CONCLUSION

Our estimates of informal care costs facilitate including informal care costs in CEAs of life-extending healthcare interventions. Including these costs may influence decisions as it leads to reranking of life-extending interventions compared with interventions improving quality of life.

Accounting for Nonhealth and Future Costs in Cost-Effectiveness Analysis: Distributional Impacts of a US Cancer Prevention Strategy

OBJECTIVE

To provide up-to-date and comprehensive US data tables to estimate future net resource use, including nonlabor market production, and examine distributional impacts of including nonhealth and future costs in cost-effectiveness results.

METHODS

Using a published US cancer prevention simulation model, the paper evaluated the lifetime cost effectiveness of implementing a 10% excise tax on processed meats across age- and sex-specific population subgroups. The model examined multiple scenarios accounting for cancer-related healthcare expenditure (HCE) only, cancer-related and unrelated background HCE, adding productivity benefits (i.e., patient time, cancer-related productivity loss, and background labor and nonlabor market production), and with nonhealth consumption costs, adjusted for household economies of scale. Additional analyses include using population-average versus age-sex-specific estimates for quantifying production and consumption value, as well as comparing direct model estimation versus postcorrections with Meltzer's approximation for incorporating future resource use.

RESULTS

Accounting for nonhealth and future costs impacted cost-effectiveness results across population subgroups, often leading to changes in "cost-saving" determination. Including nonlabor market production had a noticeable impact on estimating future resource use and reduced the bias toward undervaluing productivity among females and older populations. The use of age-sex-specific estimates resulted in less favorable cost-effectiveness results compared with population-average estimates. Meltzer's approximation provided reasonable corrections among the middle-aged population for re-engineering cost-effectiveness ratios from a healthcare sector to a societal perspective.

CONCLUSION

With updated US data tables, this paper can help researchers conduct a comprehensive value assessment to reflect net resource use (health and nonhealth resource use minus production value) from a societal perspective.

Future medical and non-medical costs and their impact on the cost-effectiveness of life-prolonging interventions: a comparison of five European countries

When healthcare interventions prolong life, people consume medical and non-medical goods during the years of life they gain. It has been argued that the costs for medical consumption should be included in cost-effectiveness analyses from both a healthcare and societal perspective, and the costs for non-medical consumption should additionally be included when a societal perspective is applied. Standardized estimates of these so-called future costs are available in only a few countries and the impact of inclusion of these costs is likely to differ between countries. In this paper we present and compare future costs for five European countries and estimate the impact of including these costs on the cost-effectiveness of life-prolonging interventions. As countries differ in the availability of data, we illustrate how both individual- and aggregate-level data sources can be used to construct standardized estimates of future costs. Results show a large variation in costs between countries. The medical costs for the Netherlands, Germany, and the United Kingdom are large compared to Spain and Greece. Non-medical costs are higher in Germany, Spain, and the United Kingdom than in Greece. The impact of including future costs on the ICER similarly varied between countries, ranging from €1000 to €35,000 per QALY gained. The variation between countries in impact on the ICER is largest when considering medical costs and indicate differences in both structure and level of healthcare financing in these countries. Case study analyses were performed in which we highlight the large impact of including future costs on ICER relative to willingness-to-pay thresholds.

Impact of physical activity on healthcare costs: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

This systematic review aims to describe the relation between physical inactivity and healthcare costs, by taking into account healthcare costs of physical-inactivity-related diseases (common practice), including physical-activity-related injuries (new) and costs in life-years gained due to avoiding diseases (new), whenever available. Moreover, the association between physical inactivity and healthcare costs may both be negatively and positively impacted by increased physical activity.

METHODS

A systematic review was conducted, including records reporting on physical (in)activity in relation to healthcare costs for a general population. Studies were required to report sufficient information to calculate the percentage of total healthcare costs potentially attributable to physical inactivity.

RESULTS

Of the 264 records identified, 25 were included in this review. Included studies showed substantial variation in the assessment methods of physical activity and in type of costs included. Overall, studies showed that physical inactivity is related to higher healthcare costs. Only one study included costs of healthcare resources used in prolonged life when physical-inactivity-related diseases were averted, showing net higher healthcare costs. No study included healthcare costs for physical-activity-related injuries.

CONCLUSIONS

Physical inactivity is associated with higher healthcare costs in the general population in the short-term. However, in the long-term aversion of diseases related with physical inactivity may increase longevity and, as a consequence, healthcare costs in life-years gained. Future studies should use a broad definition of costs, including costs in life-years gained and costs related to physical-activity-related injuries.

Cost-Effectiveness of Venetoclax Plus Obinutuzumab Versus Chlorambucil Plus Obinutuzumab for the First-Line Treatment of Adult Patients With Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia: An Extended Societal View

OBJECTIVES

Efficacy of venetoclax plus obinutuzumab (VenO) compared with chlorambucil plus obinutuzumab (ClbO) for treatment-naïve adult patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) with coexisting medical conditions was investigated in CLL14 (NCT02242942). Our aim was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of VenO versus ClbO for these patients from a Dutch societal perspective.

METHODS

A 3-state partitioned survival model was constructed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of VenO. The outcome of the analysis was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) with effectiveness measured in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained. Uncertainty was explored through deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses, scenario analyses, and value of information analysis (VOI).

RESULTS

The base case resulted in a discounted ICER -49 928 EUR/QALY gained (with incremental negative costs and positive effects). None of the ICERs resulted from deterministic sensitivity and scenario analyses exceeded the chosen willingness-to-pay threshold of 20 000 EUR/QALY, and > 99% of the iterations in the probabilistic sensitivity analysis were cost-effective. VOI analyses showed a maximum expected value of eliminating all model parameter uncertainty of 183 591 EUR.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study demonstrated VenO being dominant over ClbO in treatment-naïve adult patients with CLL assuming a Dutch societal perspective. We concluded that our results are robust as tested through sensitivity and scenario analyses. Additionally, the VOI analyses confirmed that our current evidence base is strong enough to generate reliable results for our study. Nevertheless, further research based on real-world data or longer follow-up period could further contribute to the robustness of the current study's conclusions.

Are intersectoral costs considered in economic evaluations of interventions relating to sexually transmitted infections (STIs)? A systematic review

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVE

Sexually transmitted infections (STIs) not only have an impact on the health sector but also the private resources of those affected, their families and other sectors of society (i.e. labour, education). This study aimed to i) review and identify economic evaluations of interventions relating to STIs, which aimed to include a societal perspective; ii) analyse the intersectoral costs (i.e. costs broader than healthcare) included; iii) categorise these costs by sector; and iv) assess the impact of intersectoral costs on the overall study results.

METHODS

Seven databases were searched: MEDLINE (PubMed), EMBASE (Ovid), Web of Science, CINAHL, PsycINFO, EconLit and NHS EED. Key search terms included terms for economic evaluation, STIs and specific infections. This review considered trial- and model-based economic evaluations conducted in an OECD member country. Studies were included that assessed intersectoral costs. Intersectoral costs were extracted and categorised by sector using Drummond's cost classification scheme (i.e. patient/family, productivity, costs in other sectors). A narrative synthesis was performed.

RESULTS

Twenty-nine studies qualified for data extraction and narrative synthesis. Twenty-eight studies applied a societal perspective of which 8 additionally adopted a healthcare or payer perspective, or both. One study used a modified payer perspective. The following sectors were identified: patient/family, informal care, paid labour (productivity), non-paid opportunity costs, education, and consumption. Patient/family costs were captured in 11 studies and included patient time, travel expenses, out-of-pocket costs and premature burial costs. Informal caregiver support (non-family) and unpaid help by family/friends was captured in three studies. Paid labour losses were assessed in all but three studies. Three studies also captured the costs and inability to perform non-paid work. Educational costs and future non-health consumption costs were each captured in one study. The inclusion of intersectoral costs resulted in more favourable cost estimates.

CONCLUSIONS

This systematic review suggests that economic evaluations of interventions relating to STIs that adopt a societal perspective tend to be limited in scope. There is an urgent need for economic evaluations to be more comprehensive in order to allow policy/decision-makers to make better-informed decisions.

Future Offspring Costs in Economic Evaluation

Economic evaluation guidelines increasingly prescribe inclusion of all future costs. We point at an important dimension of future costs that is systematically neglected. Healthcare can affect future offspring, either through affecting the patient's fertility or through determining future offspring's health. As we show, the future costs associated with these changes can be substantial and will vary across interventions and demographic groups. However, systematic inclusion of these future offspring costs would raise many problems on its own. Based on the population ethics concept of necessitarianism, we suggest that only those future costs that spring from 'necessary' future lives should be included in future cost calculations, while all costs associated with 'potential' future lives can be ignored. This approach allows excluding most future offspring costs and avoids skewed cost-effectiveness outcomes of interventions with fertility effects, while taking into account the economic implications of preventing disease in future generations that will exist by necessity. Overall, future generations expose a substantial gap in today's Health Technology Assessment (HTA) methodology and further discussion of the issues they raise is needed.

The Relevance of Including Future Healthcare Costs in Cost-Effectiveness Threshold Calculations for the UK NHS

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

The supply-side threshold for the UK National Health Service has been empirically estimated as the marginal returns to healthcare spending on health outcomes. These estimates implicitly exclude future healthcare costs, which is inconsistent with the objective of making the most efficient use of healthcare resources. This paper illustrates how empirical estimates of the threshold within healthcare can be adjusted to account for future healthcare costs.

METHODS

Using cause-deleted life tables and previous work on future costs in England and Wales, we illustrate how such estimates can be adjusted.

RESULTS

While the effect of including future healthcare costs can have substantial effects on incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of specific life-extending interventions, we find that including future costs has relatively little impact (an increase of £743 per quality-adjusted life-year) on the threshold estimate.

CONCLUSIONS

For some life-extending interventions the impact of including future costs on whether an intervention is deemed cost effective may be considerable.

Incorporating future unrelated medical costs in cost-effectiveness analysis in China

The occurrence of future unrelated medical costs is a direct consequence of life-prolonging interventions, but most pharmacoeconomic guidelines recommend the exclusion of these costs. The Chinese guidelines were updated in 2020, taking an exclusion approach for the future unrelated medical cost. We notice the research surrounding this issue continues in other countries and leads to an inclusion recommendation in some guidelines. Meanwhile, this issue has not been discussed in China, reflecting an urgent need for extensive research on its impact. We reviewed the theoretical and practical studies surrounding the inclusion of future unrelated medical costs, summarised the landscape of guidelines in other jurisdictions. We found that the inclusion would increase the internal and external consistency of economic evaluation and the comparability of results between different jurisdictions. However, more research is needed surrounding this issue. We proposed a future research agenda to inform the update of Chinese guidelines. We recommend research on individual-level healthcare reimbursement data and end-of-life costs from hospital administrative data to generate the age-specific, sex-specific and condition-specific costs. We also recommend establishing a formal process to evaluate the ethical and economic impact of including future unrelated medical costs and adjust the threshold accordingly in the guidelines.

Distributional consequences of including survivor costs in economic evaluations

Medical interventions that increase life expectancy of patients result in additional consumption of non-medical goods and services in 'added life years'. This paper focuses on the distributional consequences across socio-economic groups of including these costs in cost effectiveness analysis. In that context, it also highlights the role of remaining quality of life and household economies of scale. Data from a Dutch household spending survey was used to estimate non-medical consumption and household size by age and educational attainment. Estimates of non-medical consumption and household size were combined with life tables to estimate what the impact of including non-medical survivor costs would be on the incremental cost effectiveness ratio (ICER) of preventing a death at a certain age. Results show that including non-medical survivor costs increases estimated ICERs most strongly when interventions are targeted at the higher educated. Adjusting for household size (lower educated people less often live additional life years in multi-person households) and quality of life (lower educated people on average spend added life years in poorer health) mitigates this difference. Ignoring costs of non-medical consumption in economic evaluations implicitly favors interventions targeted at the higher educated and thus potentially amplifies socio-economic inequalities in health.

Cost-effectiveness of lenalidomide plus rituximab versus rituximab monotherapy in patients with previously treated follicular lymphoma: a societal view

INTRODUCTION

Efficacy of lenalidomide plus rituximab (R-LEN) compared to rituximab monotherapy (R-mono) for patients with previously treated follicular lymphoma (FL) was investigated in AUGMENT (NCT01938001). Our aim was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of R-LEN versus R-mono in this setting from a Dutch perspective.

AREAS COVERED

Cost-effectiveness was assessed through a partitioned survival model from three perspectives (i.e. societal, healthcare, and societal, including future non-medical costs). Patient-level data from AUGMENT informed effectiveness parameters (i.e. long-term survival) and health state utilities. Resource use and prices were based on AUGMENT and the literature. Clinical experts validated efficacy input parameters and results. Uncertainty was explored through sensitivity and scenario analyses.

EXPERT OPINION

R-LEN resulted in 1.7 incremental discounted quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). Total incremental discounted costs were 67,161 EUR from a societal perspective. In conclusion, R-LEN was cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of 50,000 EUR/QALY in the base-case analyses(incremental cost-effectiveness ratio = 40,493 EUR/QALY). Scenario and sensitivity analyses indicated some level of uncertainty regarding this conclusion, depending on the chosen WTP-threshold and perspective.

On time horizons in health economic evaluations

The issue of time horizons has received scant attention in discussions pertaining to health economic evaluations unlike discounting or translation of health outcomes into life-cycle measures (e.g. quality-adjusted life years or disability-adjusted life years). The available guidelines do not offer clear and consistent guidance for many problems addressed in health economic evaluations. In practice, variation of time horizons between studies for the same diseases is a matter of concern, as results on cost-effectiveness depend on the time horizon. Our paper contributes to establishing a consistent approach to setting time horizons across common types of health economic evaluations and mitigating potential bias where the choice of a time horizon may affect results of the evaluation. We find that available guidance is clear only for patient-focused interventions, but not in the presence of population-level effects owing to transmission of infections or other linkages. We distinguish between a policy period-over which an intervention is delivered or initiated-and an evaluation period over which the effects are measured. One important challenge in establishing a time horizon for evaluation is that, at least for infectious diseases, the state of the epidemic at the end of the policy period cannot be evaluated precisely and incorporated in the results of an economic evaluation. While longer policy periods partly mitigate this challenge, they are subject to greater uncertainty, and outcomes may not adequately reflect the cost-effectiveness of current policies because outcomes reflect an average over the policy period. Incremental analysis on interventions implemented in sub-periods of the policy period (especially at the beginning) potentially improves accuracy and helps to identify potential for improving cost-effectiveness by varying the path of implementation or the mix of interventions offered over time.

Catalog of Age- and Medical Condition-Specific Healthcare Costs in the United States to Inform Future Costs Calculations in Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

OBJECTIVES

This study aims to develop a catalog of annual age- and medical condition-specific healthcare costs per capita among those who are living at a certain age (survivors) and the costs attributable to death itself for those who die at that age (decedents) in the United States. These estimates can be used to inform future cost calculations in cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA).

METHODS

We discussed a theoretical framework to incorporate futures costs in CEA. We used the nationally representative Medical Expenditure Panel Survey data to estimate costs among survivors and death costs. For survivors, we obtained cost estimates nonparametrically using kernel-based regression and locally weighted scatterplot smoothing. We estimated costs attributable to death using inverse probability weights comparing decedents with appropriately weighted survivors at a given age after controlling for more than 270 clinical condition classifications, demographics, and interactions. Cost estimates were expressed in 2019 US dollar and also separately by sex and specific clinical conditions.

RESULTS

Average healthcare costs per capita among survivors, expectedly, rose over age from $2062 (95% confidence interval [CI] $1553-$2478) during the first year of life to $14 307 (95% CI $13 706-$14 956) at 85 years or older. Average costs of death were $44 569 (95% CI $14 304-$67 369) during the first year of life and declined by -$321 (95% CI -$620 to -$22) per 1 year older.

CONCLUSIONS

The US catalog of healthcare costs among survivors and decedents can facilitate calculations of future costs in CEA as recommended by the Second Panel on Cost-Effectiveness in Health and Medicine.

Cost-effectiveness analysis in radiology: methods, results and implications

BACKGROUND

 Diagnostic radiological examinations as well as interventional radiological therapies are performed at a steadily increasing rate amidst increasingly limited resources in healthcare systems. Given their potential to contribute decisively to optimized therapy, in most cases associated short-term direct costs can be well justified from a clinical perspective. However, to realize their clinical benefits, they must also succeed in justifying them to payers and policymakers. Therefore, the aim of this work is to present suitable methods for economic analysis of radiological precedures and to elaborate their relevance for radiology.

METHODOLOGY

 Methods and metrics of cost-effectiveness analysis are presented and then exemplified using the example cases of MR mammography and interventional treatment of oligometastatic tumor disease of the liver.

RESULTS

 Cost-effectiveness considerations, taking into account long-term gains in lifespan and quality of life, as well as potential savings through improved treatment planning, do often objectively and credibly justify short-term additional costs.

CONCLUSIONS

 Cost-effectiveness analyses performed with radiological and health economic expertise can support the establishment of new radiological technologies in diagnostics and therapy.

KEY POINTS

  · When radiological procedures are employed, short-term costs are often offset by significant long-term benefits.. · Radiological examinations and therapies must be justified in the context of limited economic resources.. · Economic methodologies can be used to quantify the quality and cost-effectiveness of radiological methods.. · Such analyses as well as targeted training should be encouraged to provide greater transparency..

CITATION FORMAT

· Froelich MF, Kunz WG, Tollens F et al. Cost-effectiveness analysis in radiology: methods, results and implications. Fortschr Röntgenstr 2021; DOI: 10.1055/a-1502-7830.

Don't forget about the future: The impact of including future costs on the cost-effectiveness of adult pneumococcal conjugate vaccination with PCV13 in the Netherlands

BACKGROUND

When vaccines increase longevity, vaccinated people may experience costs and benefits during added life-years. These future benefits and costs may include increased productivity as well as medical and non-medical costs. Such impacts should be considered in cost-effectiveness analyses (CEA) of vaccines but are often omitted. Here, we illustrate the impact of including future costs on the cost-effectiveness of vaccination against pneumococcus disease. We emphasize the relevance of differentiating cost estimates between risk groups.

METHODS

We updated an existing Dutch CEA of vaccination against pneumococcus disease with the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) to include all future medical and non-medical costs. We linked costs by age and risk with survival information and estimates of cases prevented per vaccination strategy based on the original study to calculate the impact of inclusion. Future medical costs were adjusted for relevant risk groups.

RESULTS

For the base-case strategy, the original incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of PVC13 was €9,157 per quality adjusted life-year (QALY). Including all future medical costs increased the ICER to €28,540 per QALY. Also including future non-medical costs resulted in an ICER of €45,691 per QALY. The impact of future medical costs varied considerably per risk group and generally increased with age.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION

This study showed a substantial effect of the inclusion of future costs on the ICER of vaccinating with PCV13. Especially when lives of people with underlying health conditions are extended, the impact of future medical costs is large. This inclusion may make vaccination a less attractive option, especially in relation to low thresholds as often applied for prevention. Although this raises important questions, ignoring these real future costs may lead to an inefficient use of healthcare resources. Our results may imply that prices for some vaccines need to be lowered to be cost-effective.

Cost-Effective Analysis of the Congenital Hypothyroidism Screening Program in Sri Lanka

INTRODUCTION

Economic evaluations will determine policy decisions on any screening programs as estimates of short-term or long-term clinical and economic outcomes are analyzed through a systematic approach. This cost-effectiveness analysis was aimed to assess newborn screening for congenital hypothroidism (CH) in Sri Lanka as a important tool to allocate funds and make decisions on feasibility of new interventions with budget constraint in healthcare costs.

METHODS

The newborn screening database was retrospectively analyzed to assess key performance indicators of the program. Program cost included capital investment, sampling, forms, analytical cost, follow-up, and confirmatory costs. Treatments and management care were calculated up to the age of 75 years excluding other cost to the family for support. Total benefits to the society and disability-adjusted life-years are calculated for each year.

RESULTS

During 2019, 159 559 newborns underwent screening with over 92% coverage while 126 babies of 192 screening positive babies were confirmed as having the disease. The annual incidence of hypothyroidism was 1 in 1266 live births among the screened population. The positive predictive value of the program was 66% with a false-positive rate of <0.04% among those screened. The benefit-to-cost ratio was 3.60 with total cost of the program 98 924 300LKR with total benefit of 356 553 781LKR in 2019.

CONCLUSION

The CH screening program proved its effectiveness in both timely detecting at-risk babies as well as being appropriately effective in economic impact to society. The improved health outcomes are of utmost importance considering screening expansions and policy decisions.

Economic and epidemiological evaluation of interventions to reduce the burden of hepatitis C in Yunnan province, China

BACKGROUND

The paradigm shift in hepatitis C virus (HCV) treatment options in the last five years has raised the prospect of eliminating the disease as a global health threat. This will require a step-change in the number being treated with the new direct-acting antivirals (DAAs). Given constrained budgets and competing priorities, policy makers need information on how to scale-up access to HCV treatment. To inform such decisions, we examined the cost effectiveness of screening and treatment interventions in Yunnan, China.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We simulated the HCV epidemic using a previously published model of HCV transmission and disease progression, calibrated to Yunnan data, and implemented a range of treatment and screening interventions from 2019. We incorporated treatment, diagnosis, and medical costs (expressed in 2019 US Dollars, USD) to estimate the lifetime benefits and costs of interventions. Using this model, we asked: is introducing DAAs cost effective from a healthcare sector perspective; what is the optimal combination of screening interventions; and what is the societal return on investment of intervention? The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of switching to DAAs with a median cost of 7,400 USD (50,000 Chinese Yuan) per course is 500 USD/disability adjusted life year (DALY) averted; at a threshold of 50% of Yunnan gross domestic product (2,600 USD), switching to DAAs is cost effective 94% of the time. At this threshold, the optimal, cost-effective intervention comprises screening people who inject drugs, those in HIV care, men who have sex with men, and ensuring access to DAAs for all those newly diagnosed with HCV. For each USD invested in this intervention, there is an additional 0·80 USD (95% credible interval: 0·17-1·91) returned through reduced costs of disease or increased productivity. Returns on investment are lower (and potentially negative) if a sufficiently long-term horizon, encompassing the full stream of future benefits, is not adopted. The study had two key limitations: costing data were not always specific to Yunnan province but were taken from China-level studies; and modelled interventions may require more operational research to ensure they can be effectively and efficiently rolled-out to the entire province.

CONCLUSIONS

Introducing DAAs is cost effective, the optimal package of screening measures is focussed on higher risk groups, and there are likely to be positive returns from investing in such HCV interventions. Our analysis shows that targeted investment in HCV interventions will have net benefits to society; these benefits will only increase as DAA costs fall.

The Burden of Spinal Muscular Atrophy on Informal Caregivers

Spinal muscular atrophy (SMA) is one of the most common severe hereditary diseases of infancy and early childhood. The progression of this illness causes a high degree of disability; hence, a significant burden is experienced by individuals with this disease and their families. We analyzed the time taken to care for patients suffering from SMA in European countries and the burden on their informal caregivers. We designed a cross-sectional study recording data from France, Germany, Spain and the United Kingdom. The primary caregivers completed a self-administered questionnaire that included questions about the time of care, The Zarit Burden Interview, type of SMA and socio-demographic characteristics. Multivariate analyses were used to study the associations between the type of SMA, time of care and burden supported by informal caregivers. The caregivers provided 10.0 h (SD = 6.7) per day of care (the principal caregivers provided 6.9 h, SD = 4.6). The informal caregivers of patients with type I SMA had a 36.3 point higher likelihood (p < 0.05) of providing more than 10 h of care per day in comparison with caregivers of patients with type III SMA. The severity of the disease was associated with more time of care and a higher burden on the caregivers.

Costs and benefits of interventions aimed at major infectious disease threats: lessons from the literature

Pandemics and major outbreaks have the potential to cause large health losses and major economic costs. To prioritize between preventive and responsive interventions, it is important to understand the costs and health losses interventions may prevent. We review the literature, investigating the type of studies performed, the costs and benefits included, and the methods employed against perceived major outbreak threats. We searched PubMed and SCOPUS for studies concerning the outbreaks of SARS in 2003, H5N1 in 2003, H1N1 in 2009, Cholera in Haiti in 2010, MERS-CoV in 2013, H7N9 in 2013, and Ebola in West-Africa in 2014. We screened titles and abstracts of papers, and subsequently examined remaining full-text papers. Data were extracted according to a pre-constructed protocol. We included 34 studies of which the majority evaluated interventions related to the H1N1 outbreak in a high-income setting. Most interventions concerned pharmaceuticals. Included costs and benefits, as well as the methods applied, varied substantially between studies. Most studies used a short time horizon and did not include future costs and benefits. We found substantial variation in the included elements and methods used. Policymakers need to be aware of this and the bias toward high-income countries and pharmaceutical interventions, which hampers generalizability. More standardization of included elements, methodology, and reporting would improve economic evaluations and their usefulness for policy.

A Cost-Effectiveness Framework for Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis, Applied to Riluzole

OBJECTIVES

Reexamine cost-effectiveness of riluzole in the treatment of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) in light of recent advances in disease staging and understanding of stage-specific drug effect.

METHODS

ALS was staged according to the "fine'til 9" (FT9) staging method. Stage-specific health utilities (EQ-5D, US valuation) were estimated from an institutional cohort, whereas literature informed costs and transition probabilities. Costs at 2018 prices were disaggregated into recurring costs (RCs) and "one-off" transition/"tollgate" costs (TCs). Five- and 10-year horizons starting in stage 1 disease were examined from healthcare sector and societal perspectives using Markov models to evaluate riluzole use, at a threshold of $100 000/quality-adjusted life year (QALY). Probabilistic and deterministic sensitivity analyses were conducted.

RESULTS

Mean EQ-5D utilities for stages 0 to 4 were 0.79, 0.74, 0.63, 0.54, and 0.46, respectively. From the healthcare sector perspective at the 5-year horizon, riluzole use contributed to 0.182 QALY gained at the cost difference of $12 348 ($5403 riluzole cost, $8870 RC and -$1925 TC differences), translating to an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $67 658/QALY. Transition probability variation contributed considerably to ICER uncertainty (-30.2% to +90.0%). ICER was sensitive to drug price and RCs, whereas higher TCs modestly reduced ICER due to delayed tollgates.

CONCLUSION

This study provides a framework for health economic studies of ALS treatments using FT9 staging. Prospective stage-specific and disaggregated cost measurement is warranted for accurate future cost-effectiveness analyses. Appropriate separation of TCs from RCs substantially mitigates the high burden of background cost of care on the ICER.

Practical Guidance for Including Future Costs in Economic Evaluations in The Netherlands: Introducing and Applying PAID 3.0

OBJECTIVES

A consensus has been reached in The Netherlands that all future medical costs should be included in economic evaluations. Furthermore, internationally, there is the recognition that in countries that adopt a societal perspective estimates of future nonmedical consumption are relevant for decision makers as much as production gains are. The aims of this paper are twofold: (1) to update the tool Practical Application to Include Future Disease Costs (PAID 1.1), based on 2013 data, for the estimation of future unrelated medical costs and introduce future nonmedical consumption costs, further standardizing and facilitating the inclusion of future costs; and (2) to demonstrate how to use the tool in practice, showing the impact of including future unrelated medical costs and future nonmedical consumption in a case-study where a life is hypothetically saved at different ages and 2 additional cases where published studies are updated by including future costs.

METHODS

Using the latest published cost of illness data from the year 2017, we model future unrelated medical costs as a function of age, sex, and time to death, which varies per disease. The Household Survey from Centraal Bureau Statistiek is used to estimate future nonmedical consumption by age.

RESULTS

The updated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) from the case studies show that including future costs can have a substantial effect on the ICER, possibly affecting choices made by decision makers.

CONCLUSION

This article improves upon previous work and provides the first tool for the inclusion of future nonmedical consumption in The Netherlands.

Health economic evaluation of gene replacement therapies: methodological issues and recommendations

Objective: To provide recommendations for addressing previously identified key challenges in health economic evaluations of Gene Replacement Therapies (GRTs), including: 1) the assessment of clinical effectiveness; 2) the valuation of health outcomes; 3) the time horizon and extrapolation of effects beyond trial duration; 4) the estimation of costs; 5) the selection of appropriate discount rates; 6) the incorporation of broader elements of value; and 7) affordability. Methods: A literature review on economic evaluations of GRT was performed. Interviews were conducted with 8 European and US health economic experts with experience in evaluations of GRT. Targeted literature reviews were conducted to investigate further potential solutions to specific challenges. Recommendations: Experts agreed on factors to be considered to ensure the acceptability of historical cohorts by HTA bodies. Existing prospective registries or, if not available, retrospective registries, may be used to analyse different disease trajectories and inform extrapolations. The importance of expert opinion due to limited data was acknowledged. Expert opinion should be obtained using structured elicitation techniques. Broader elements of value, beyond health gains directly related to treatment, can be considered through the application of a factor to inflate the quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) or a higher cost-effectiveness threshold. Additionally, the use of cost-benefit analysis and saved young life equivalents (SAVE) were proposed as alternatives to QALYs for the valuations of outcomes of GRT as they can incorporate broader elements of value and avoid problems of eliciting utilities for paediatric diseases. Conclusions: While some of the limitations of economic evaluations of GRT are inherent to limited clinical data and lack of experience with these treatments, others may be addressed by methodological research to be conducted by health economists.

Cured Today, Ill Tomorrow: A Method for Including Future Unrelated Medical Costs in Economic Evaluation in England and Wales

OBJECTIVES

In many countries, future unrelated medical costs occurring during life-years gained are excluded from economic evaluation, and benefits of unrelated medical care are implicitly included, leading to life-extending interventions being disproportionately favored over quality of life-improving interventions. This article provides a standardized framework for the inclusion of future unrelated medical costs and demonstrates how this framework can be applied in England and Wales.

METHODS

Data sources are combined to construct estimates of per-capita National Health Service spending by age, sex, and time to death, and a framework is developed for adjusting these estimates for costs of related diseases. Using survival curves from 3 empirical examples illustrates how our estimates for unrelated National Health Service spending can be used to include unrelated medical costs in cost-effectiveness analysis and the impact depending on age, life-years gained, and baseline costs of the target group.

RESULTS

Our results show that including future unrelated medical costs is feasible and standardizable. Empirical examples show that this inclusion leads to an increase in the ICER of between 7% and 13%.

CONCLUSIONS

This article contributes to the methodology debate over unrelated costs and how to systematically include them in economic evaluation. Results show that it is both important and possible to include future unrelated medical costs.

Quantifying the economic cost of antibiotic resistance and the impact of related interventions: rapid methodological review, conceptual framework and recommendations for future studies

BACKGROUND

Antibiotic resistance (ABR) poses a major threat to health and economic wellbeing worldwide. Reducing ABR will require government interventions to incentivise antibiotic development, prudent antibiotic use, infection control and deployment of partial substitutes such as rapid diagnostics and vaccines. The scale of such interventions needs to be calibrated to accurate and comprehensive estimates of the economic cost of ABR.

METHODS

A conceptual framework for estimating costs attributable to ABR was developed based on previous literature highlighting methodological shortcomings in the field and additional deductive epidemiological and economic reasoning. The framework was supplemented by a rapid methodological review.

RESULTS

The review identified 110 articles quantifying ABR costs. Most were based in high-income countries only (91/110), set in hospitals (95/110), used a healthcare provider or payer perspective (97/110), and used matched cohort approaches to compare costs of patients with antibiotic-resistant infections and antibiotic-susceptible infections (or no infection) (87/110). Better use of methods to correct biases and confounding when making this comparison is needed. Findings also need to be extended beyond their limitations in (1) time (projecting present costs into the future), (2) perspective (from the healthcare sector to entire societies and economies), (3) scope (from individuals to communities and ecosystems), and (4) space (from single sites to countries and the world). Analyses of the impact of interventions need to be extended to examine the impact of the intervention on ABR, rather than considering ABR as an exogeneous factor.

CONCLUSIONS

Quantifying the economic cost of resistance will require greater rigour and innovation in the use of existing methods to design studies that accurately collect relevant outcomes and further research into new techniques for capturing broader economic outcomes.

Conducting Value for Money Analyses for Non-randomised Interventional Studies Including Service Evaluations: An Educational Review with Recommendations

This article provides an educational review covering the consideration of conducting ‘value for money’ analyses as part of non-randomised study designs including service evaluations. These evaluations represent a vehicle for producing evidence such as value for money of a care intervention or service delivery model. Decision makers including charities and local and national governing bodies often rely on evidence from non-randomised data and service evaluations to inform their resource allocation decision-making. However, as randomised data obtained from randomised controlled trials are considered the ‘gold standard’ for assessing causation, the use of this alternative vehicle for producing an evidence base requires careful consideration. We refer to value for money analyses, but reflect on methods associated with economic evaluations as a form of analysis used to inform resource allocation decision-making alongside a finite budget. Not all forms of value for money analysis are considered a full economic evaluation with implications for the information provided to decision makers. The type of value for money analysis to be conducted requires considerations such as the outcome(s) of interest, study design, statistical methods to control for confounding and bias, and how to quantify and describe uncertainty and opportunity costs to decision makers in any resulting value for money estimates. Service evaluations as vehicles for producing evidence present different challenges to analysts than what is commonly associated with research, randomised controlled trials and health technology appraisals, requiring specific study design and analytic considerations. This educational review describes and discusses these considerations, as overlooking them could affect the information provided to decision makers who may make an ‘ill-informed’ decision based on ‘poor’ or ‘inaccurate’ information with long-term implications. We make direct comparisons between randomised controlled trials relative to non-randomised data as vehicles for assessing causation; given ‘gold standard’ randomised controlled trials have limitations. Although we use UK-based decision makers as examples, we reflect on the needs of decision makers internationally for evidence-based decision-making specific to resource allocation. We make recommendations based on the experiences of the authors in the UK, reflecting on the wide variety of methods available, used as documented in the empirical literature. These methods may not have been fully considered relevant to non-randomised study designs and/or service evaluations, but could improve and aid the analysis conducted to inform the relevant value for money decision problem.

Cost-Effectiveness of Cancer Screening: Health and Costs in Life Years Gained

INTRODUCTION

Studies reporting on the cost-effectiveness of cancer screening usually account for quality of life losses and healthcare costs owing to cancer but do not account for future costs and quality of life losses related to competing risks. This study aims to demonstrate the impact of medical costs and quality of life losses of other diseases in the life years gained on the cost-effectiveness of U.S. cancer screening.

METHODS

Cost-effectiveness studies of breast, cervical, and colorectal cancer screening in the U.S. were identified using a systematic literature review. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of the eligible articles were updated by adding lifetime expenditures and health losses per quality-adjusted life year gained because of competing risks. This was accomplished using data on medical spending and quality of life by age and disease from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (2011-2015) combined with cause-deleted life tables. The study was conducted in 2018.

RESULTS

The impact of quality of life losses and healthcare expenditures of competing risks in life years gained incurred owing to screening were the highest for breast cancer and the lowest for cervical cancer. The updates suggest that incremental cost-effectiveness ratios are underestimated by $10,300-$13,700 per quality-adjusted life year gained if quality of life losses and healthcare expenditures of competing risks are omitted in economic evaluations. Furthermore, cancer screening programs that were considered cost saving, were found not to be so following the inclusion of medical expenditures of competing risks.

CONCLUSIONS

Practical difficulties in quantifying quality of life losses and healthcare expenditures owing to competing risks in life years gained can be overcome. Their inclusion can have a substantial impact on the cost-effectiveness of cancer screening programs.

Incorporating Future Medical Costs: Impact on Cost-Effectiveness Analysis in Cancer Patients

BACKGROUND

The inclusion of future medical costs in cost-effectiveness analyses remains a controversial issue. The impact of capturing future medical costs is likely to be particularly important in patients with cancer where costly lifelong medical care is necessary. The lack of clear, definitive pharmacoeconomic guidelines can limit comparability and has implications for decision making.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to demonstrate the impact of incorporating future medical costs through an applied example using original data from a clinical study evaluating the cost effectiveness of a sepsis intervention in cancer patients.

METHODS

A decision analytic model was used to capture quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and lifetime costs of cancer patients from an Australian healthcare system perspective over a lifetime horizon. The evaluation considered three scenarios: (1) intervention-related costs (no future medical cost), (2) lifetime cancer costs and (3) all future healthcare costs. Inputs to the model included patient-level data from the clinical study, relative risk of death due to sepsis, cancer mortality and future medical costs sourced from published literature. All costs are expressed in 2017 Australian dollars and discounted at 5%. To further assess the impact of future costs on cancer heterogeneity, variation in survival and lifetime costs between cancer types and the implications for cost-effectiveness analysis were explored.

RESULTS

The inclusion of future medical costs increased incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) resulting in a shift from the intervention being a dominant strategy (cheaper and more effective) to an ICER of $7526/QALY. Across different cancer types, longer life expectancies did not necessarily result in greater lifetime healthcare costs. Incremental costs differed across cancers depending on the respective costs of managing cancer and survivorship, thus resulting in variations in ICERs.

CONCLUSIONS

There is scope for including costs beyond intervention costs in economic evaluations. The inclusion of future medical costs can result in markedly different cost-effectiveness results, leading to higher ICERs in a cancer population, with possible implications for funding decisions.

An Educational Review About Using Cost Data for the Purpose of Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

This paper provides an educational review covering the consideration of costs for cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA), summarising relevant methods and research from the published literature. Cost data are typically generated by applying appropriate unit costs to healthcare resource-use data for patients. Trial-based evaluations and decision analytic modelling represent the two main vehicles for CEA. The costs to consider will depend on the perspective taken, with conflicting recommendations ranging from focusing solely on healthcare to the broader 'societal' perspective. Alternative sources of resource-use are available, including medical records and forms completed by researchers or patients. Different methods are available for the statistical analysis of cost data, although consideration needs to be given to the appropriate methods, given cost data are typically non-normal with a mass point at zero and a long right-hand tail. The choice of covariates for inclusion in econometric models also needs careful consideration, focusing on those that are influential and that will improve balance and precision. Where data are missing, it is important to consider the type of missingness and then apply appropriate analytical methods, such as imputation. Uncertainty around costs should also be reflected to allow for consideration on the impacts of the CEA results on decision uncertainty. Costs should be discounted to account for differential timing, and are typically inflated to a common cost year. The choice of methods and sources of information used when accounting for cost information within CEA will have an effect on the subsequent cost-effectiveness results and how information is presented to decision makers. It is important that the most appropriate methods are used as overlooking the complicated nature of cost data could lead to inaccurate information being given to decision makers.