Estimation of Cost for Endoscopic Screening for Esophageal Cancer in a High-Risk Population in Rural China: Results from a Population-Level Randomized Controlled Trial

Lipid Identification of Biomarkers in Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma by Lipidomic Analysis

Lipids participate in many important biological functions through energy storage, membrane structure stabilization, signal transduction, and molecular recognition. Previous studies have shown that patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) have abnormal lipid metabolism. However, studies characterizing lipid metabolism in ESCC patients through lipidomics are limited. Plasma lipid profiles of 65 ESCC patients and 42 healthy controls (HC) were characterized by lipidomics-based ultraperformance liquid chromatography quadrupole time-of-flight mass spectrometry (UPLC-Q-TOF-MS). Single-factor and multi-factor statistical analysis were used to screen the differences in blood lipids between groups, and combined with component ratio analysis and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve diagnostic efficiency assessment, to reveal the potential mechanisms and biomarkers of ESCC. There were significant differences in lipid profiles between the ESCC and HC groups. Thirty-six differential lipids (11 up-regulated and 25 down-regulated) were selected based on the criteria of p < .05 and fold change > 1.3 or < 0.77. Glycerophospholipids were the major differential lipids, suggesting that these lipid metabolic pathways exhibit a significant imbalance that may contribute to the development of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma. Among them, the seven candidate biomarkers for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma with the highest diagnostic value are three phosphatidylserine (PS), three fatty acids (FA) and one phosphatidylcholine (PC).

Performance of Prediction Models for Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma in General Population: A Systematic Review and External Validation Study

INTRODUCTION

Prediction models for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) need to be proven effective in the target population before they can be applied to population-based endoscopic screening to improve cost-effectiveness. We have systematically reviewed ESCC prediction models applicable to the general population and performed external validation and head-to-head comparisons in a large multicenter prospective cohort including 5 high-risk areas of China (Fei Cheng, Lin Zhou, Ci Xian, Yang Zhong, and Yan Ting).

METHODS

Models were identified through a systematic review and validated in a large population-based multicenter prospective cohort that included 89,753 participants aged 40-69 years who underwent their first endoscopic examination between April 2017 and March 2021 and were followed up until December 31, 2022. Model performance in external validation was estimated based on discrimination and calibration. Discrimination was assessed by C-statistic (concordance statistic), and calibration was assessed by calibration plot and Hosmer-Lemeshow test.

RESULTS

The systematic review identified 15 prediction models that predicted severe dysplasia and above lesion (SDA) or ESCC in the general population, of which 11 models (4 SDA and 7 ESCC) were externally validated. The C-statistics ranged from 0.67 (95% confidence interval 0.66-0.69) to 0.70 (0.68-0.71) of the SDA models, and the highest was achieved by Liu et al (2020) and Liu et al (2022). The C-statistics ranged from 0.51 (0.48-0.54) to 0.74 (0.71-0.77), and Han et al (2023) had the best discrimination of the ESCC models. Most models were well calibrated after recalibration because the calibration plots coincided with the x = y line.

DISCUSSION

Several prediction models showed moderate performance in external validation, and the prediction models may be useful in screening for ESCC. Further research is needed on model optimization, generalization, implementation, and health economic evaluation.

Cost-effectiveness of precision screening for esophageal cancer based on individualized risk stratification in China: Real-world evidence from the ESECC trial

BACKGROUND

Conventional universal endoscopic screening with pathology-based endoscopic re-examination for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma is in need of reform in China. We established a "two-step" precision screening strategy using two risk prediction models and have evaluated the cost-effectiveness of this precision strategy compared with the traditional strategy based on a large population-level randomized controlled trial from a healthcare provider's perspective.

METHODS

Four precision screening strategies with different risk cutoffs at baseline screening and endoscopic surveillance were constructed, and then compared with traditional strategy through modeling using subjects from the screening cohort of the ESECC (Endoscopic Screening for Esophageal Cancer in China) trial. Total screening costs and the number of SDA (severe dysplasia and above in lesions of the esophagus) cases were obtained to calculate the average screening cost per SDA detected, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) and protection rates. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to evaluate uncertainties.

RESULTS

Compared to traditional strategy, all precision screening strategies have much lower average costs for detection of one SDA case ($7,148~$11,537 vs. $14,944). In addition, precision strategies 1&2 (strategies 1,2,3,4 described below) achieved higher effectiveness (143~150 vs. 136) and higher protection rates (87.7%~92.0% vs. 83.4%) at lower cost ($1,649,727~$1,672,221 vs. $2,032,386), generating negative ICERs (-$54,666/SDA~-$25,726/SDA) when compared to the traditional strategy. The optimal strategies within different willingness-to-pay (WTP) ranges were all precision screening strategies, and higher model sensitivities were adopted as WTP increased.

CONCLUSIONS

Precision screening strategy for esophageal cancer based on risk stratification is more cost-effective than use of traditional screening strategy and has practical implications for esophageal cancer screening programs in China.

Stage-Specific Survival From Esophageal Cancer in China and Implications for Control Strategies: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analyses

Background and Aims

Esophageal cancer claims more than 500,000 deaths worldwide, with half occurring in China. We aimed to synthesize existing evidence on stage-specific survival from this cancer in China to inform cancer control strategies.

Methods

English and Chinese literature databases were systematically searched to identify original research published up to May 31, 2019 that reported stage-specific survival from esophageal cancer in China. Two meta-analyses were performed using random-effects models to summarize stage-specific survival differences on relative and absolute scales. The number of esophageal cancer deaths that might have been prevented by early detection in China, in 2018, was estimated assuming 2 different downstaging scenarios.

Results

One hundred fifty eligible studies were identified, 97 had non-overlapping study populations (83,063 participants), 47 were included in the meta-analysis of hazard ratios, and 26 in the meta-analysis of survival probabilities. Late-stage (III-IV) was associated with 92% higher hazard of death compared with early-stage (0-II) (95% confidence interval 1.62-2.28), corresponding to an absolute 5-year survival difference of 31.2% (29.9%-32.4%). In all, 5.2% esophageal cancer deaths could have been prevented in China, in 2018, if the observed stage distribution at diagnosis (∼50% early-stage) was shifted to the real-life conditions of a population-based endoscopic screening program (∼60% early-stage) and 26.9% if shifted to that observed in the controlled setting of a randomized trial (∼90% early-stage).

Conclusion

Shifting downwards the stage distribution of esophageal cancer through screening would bring moderate reductions in mortality from the disease. Treatment improvements for early-stage patients are needed to reduce further mortality from this cancer.

Economic Burden Conferred by Population-Level Cancer Screening on Resource-Limited Communities: Lessons From the ESECC Trial

Objectives

Upper gastrointestinal (G.I.) cancer screening has been conducted in China for decades. However, the economic burden for treatment “intensively” occurred in advance due to screening in resource-limited communities remain unclear.

Methods

We compared the treatment costs for upper G.I. cancers from the screening and control arms of a population-based randomized trial in a high-risk area for esophageal cancer (EC) in China based on claims data from the health insurance system in the local area which included whole population coverage.

Results

The average out-of-pocket cost per treatment of EC in the screening arm was lower than that in the control arm ($5,972 vs. $7,557). This difference was a consequence of down-staging from screening which resulted in lower cost therapy for earlier stage cancers. Moreover, this result is similar for cardial and non-cardial gastric cancer in the two study arms ($7,933 vs. $10,605). However, three times as many (103 vs. 36) families in the screening arm suffered catastrophic health expenditure for all cancer types. The overall treatment cost for all EC patients in the screening arm ($1,045,119) was 2.44 times that in the control arm ($428,292), and the ratio for cardial and non-cardial gastric cancer was 1.12 ($393,261 vs. $351,557).

Conclusion

Cancer treatment secondary to screening may triple the likelihood of catastrophic patient medical expenditure, and sharply increase the economic pressure on the local community, particularly for cancer types which are of high prevalence. Financial support for patients and the health insurance system should be taken into consideration when planning budgets for cancer screening programs in communities which are resource-limited.

Cost-effectiveness of risk-stratified endoscopic screening for esophageal cancer in high-risk areas of China: a modeling study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Risk-stratified endoscopic screening (RSES) has been suggested to improve screening efficiency. We aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of RSES and identify the optimal risk-score thresholds for once in a lifetime esophageal cancer (EC) screening in high-risk areas of China.

METHODS

From a healthcare system perspective, a Markov model was constructed to compare the cost-effectiveness of 13 RSES strategies (under different score thresholds for EC risk), universal endoscopic screening strategy, and no screening. Six cohorts of 100,000 participants with different screening ages (40-65 years) were followed up to age 77 years. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), that is, incremental costs per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained, was the primary outcome.

RESULTS

Compared with no screening, as the score threshold was lowered, additionally gained QALYs increased, with 49 to 172 QALYs and 329 to 1147 QALYs gained from screening performed at 40 and 65 years, respectively. RSES in all age scenarios had ICERs less than the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, and 11 RSES strategies with score thresholds of 3 to 13 had lower ICERs than universal endoscopic screening. At a willingness-to-pay threshold of the GDP per capita (U.S.$10,276/QALY), RSES at score thresholds of 8 or 9 and universal endoscopic screening were the most cost-effective strategies at ages <55 and ≥55 years, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

RSES is cost-effective, and score thresholds of 8 or 9 should be considered for screening ages <55 years. For individuals aged ≥55 years, universal endoscopic screening is the optimal strategy.

Development and Validation of an Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma Risk Prediction Model for Rural Chinese: Multicenter Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

There are rare prediction models for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) for rural Chinese population. We aimed to develop and validate a prediction model for ESCC based on a cohort study for the population.

METHODS

Data of 115,686 participants were collected from esophageal cancer (EC) early diagnosis and treatment of cancer program as derivation cohort while data of 54,750 participants were collected as validation cohort. Risk factors considered included age, sex, smoking status, alcohol drinking status, body mass index (BMI), tea drinking status, marital status, annual household income, source of drinking water, education level, and diet habit. Cox proportional hazards model was used to develop ESCC prediction model at 5 years. Calibration ability, discrimination ability, and decision curve analysis were analyzed in both derivation and validation cohort. A score model was developed based on prediction model.

RESULTS

One hundred eighty-six cases were diagnosed during 556,949.40 person-years follow-up in the derivation cohort while 120 cases from 277,302.70 in the validation cohort. Prediction model included the following variables: age, sex, alcohol drinking status, BMI, tea drinking status, and fresh fruit. The model had good discrimination and calibration performance: R 2, D statistic, and Harrell's C statistic of prediction model were 43.56%, 1.70, and 0.798 in derivation cohort and 45.19%, 1.62, and 0.787 in validation cohort. The calibration analysis showed good coherence between predicted probabilities and observed probabilities while decision curve analysis showed clinical usefulness. The score model was as follows: age (3 for 45-49 years old; 4 for 50-54 years old; 7 for 55-59 years old; 9 for 60-64 years; 10 for 65-69 years), sex (5 for men), BMI (1 for ≤25), alcohol drinking status (2 for alcohol drinkers), tea drinking status (2 for tea drinkers), and fresh fruit (2 for never) and showed good discrimination ability with area under the curve and its 95% confidence interval of 0.792 (0.761,0.822) in the deviation cohort and 0.773 (0.736,0.811) in the validation cohort. The calibration analysis showed great coherence between predicted probabilities and observed probabilities.

CONCLUSIONS

We developed and validated an ESCC prediction model using cohort study with good discrimination and calibration capability which can be used for EC screening for rural Chinese population.

Health-seeking behavior and barriers to treatment of patients with upper gastrointestinal cancer detected by screening in rural China: real-world evidence from the ESECC trial

BACKGROUND

To fully realize efficacy in cancer screening, timely and appropriate treatment for participants with malignant lesions is critical. However, the health-seeking behavior of patients with upper gastrointestinal (G.I.) cancer identified in population-level screening programs in China is unknown.

METHODS

A community-based real-world investigation was conducted with 136 upper G.I. cancer patients detected in a large screening cohort in an area of high-risk for upper G.I. cancer in China. Using local medical claims data and semi-structured face-to-face interview, we collected information regarding the clinical treatment regimen and factors which result in the lack of timely and appropriate treatment.

FINDINGS

The treatment records for 133 upper G.I. cancer patients were acquired. Among these, 48 (36•09%) patients did not receive treatment within three months of initial diagnosis, and treatment of early-stage cancer was more likely to be delayed. Sixteen patients did not seek further diagnostic testing due to their low health-awareness and socio-economic status. Another 20 participants proactively sought further diagnostic evaluation in health care facilities but were prevented from receiving further treatment due to low sensitivity of given diagnostic test(s), failure to recognize the significance of screening results, and/or lack of basic knowledge of diagnosis and treatment for early cancer on the part of clinicians. The treatment regimen offered to patients depended largely on the level of health care facilities they visited, and non-medical factors were the main reasons for choice of health care facilities.

INTERPRETATION

A coordinated, system-based management strategy is urgently needed to support the design of upper G.I. cancer screening programs in rural populations in China.

FUNDING

The Charity Project of the National Ministry of Health (201202014), the National Key R & D Program of China (2016YFC0901404), the National Science & Technology Fundamental Resources Investigation Program of China (2019FY101102), and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (82073626).

Improved esophageal squamous cell carcinoma screening effectiveness by risk-stratified endoscopic screening: evidence from high-risk areas in China

Background

Risk‐stratified endoscopic screening (RSES), which offers endoscopy to those with a high risk of esophageal cancer, has the potential to increase effectiveness and reduce endoscopic demands compared with the universal screening strategy (i.e., endoscopic screening for all targets without risk prediction). Evidence of RSES in high‐risk areas of China is limited. This study aimed to estimate whether RSES based on a 22‐score esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) risk prediction model could optimize the universal endoscopic screening strategy for ESCC screening in high‐risk areas of China.

Methods

Eight epidemiological variables in the ESCC risk prediction model were collected retrospectively from 26,618 individuals aged 40‐69 from three high‐risk areas of China who underwent endoscopic screening between May 2015 and July 2017. The model's performance was estimated using the area under the curve (AUC). Participants were categorized into a high‐risk group and a low‐risk group with a cutoff score having sensitivities of both ESCC and severe dysplasia and above (SDA) at more than 90.0%.

Results

The ESCC risk prediction model had an AUC of 0.80 (95% confidence interval: 0.75–0.84) in this external population. We found that a score of 8 (ranging from 0 to 22) had a sensitivity of 94.2% for ESCC and 92.5% for SDA. The RSES strategy using this threshold score would allow 50.6% of endoscopies to be avoided and save approximately US$ 0.59 million compared to universal endoscopic screening among 26,618 participants. In addition, a higher prevalence of SDA (1.7% vs. 0.9%), a lower number need to screen (60 vs. 111), and a lower average cost per detected SDA (US$ 3.22 thousand vs. US$ 5.45 thousand) could have been obtained by the RSES strategy.

Conclusions

The RSES strategy based on individual risk has the potential to optimize the universal endoscopic screening strategy in ESCC high‐risk areas of China.

Serum metabolomics analysis for the progression of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

BACKGROUND: Previous metabolomics studies have found differences in metabolic characteristics between the healthy and ESCC patients. However, few of these studies concerned the whole process of the progression of ESCC. This study aims to explore serum metabolites associated with the progression of ESCC.

METHODS: Serum samples from 653 participants (305 normal, 77 esophagitis, 228 LGD, and 43 HGD/ESCC) were examined by ultra-high performance liquid chromatography quadruple time-of-flight mass spectrometry (UHPLC-QTOF/MS). Principal component analysis (PCA) was first applied to obtain an overview of the clustering trend for the multidimensional data. Fuzzy c-means (FCM) clustering was then used to screen metabolites with a changing tendency in the progression of ESCC. Univariate ordinal logistic regression analysis and multiple ordinal logistic regression analysis were applied to evaluate the association of metabolites with the risk of ESCC progression, and adjusted for age, gender, BMI, tobacco smoking, and alcohol drinking status.

RESULTS: After FCM clustering analysis, a total of 38 metabolites exhibiting changing tendency among normal, esophagitis, LGD, and HGD/ESCC patients. Final results showed 15 metabolites associated with the progression of ESCC. Ten metabolites (dopamine, L-histidine, 5-hydroxyindoleacetate, L-tryptophan, 2'-O-methylcytidine, PC (14:0/0:0), PC (O-16:1/0:0), PE (18:0/0:0), PC (16:1/0:0), PC (18:2/0:0)) were associated with decreased risk of developing ESCC. Five metabolites (hypoxanthine, inosine, carnitine (14:1), glycochenodeoxycholate, PC (P-18:0/18:3)) were associated with increased risk of developing ESCC.

CONCLUSIONS: These results demonstrated that serum metabolites are associated with the progression of ESCC. These metabolites are capable of potential biomarkers for the risk prediction and early detection of ESCC.

Precision screening for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma in China

Esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) is the predominant subtype of esophageal cancer in China, and this neoplasm is associated with high morbidity and mortality as well as clear geographical heterogeneity. Since primary prevention for ESCC lacks a clear intervention target, secondary prevention, also known as screening and early diagnosis and early treatment, has become the mainstay of ESCC prevention and control in China. ESCC screening in China has been subject to decades of evaluation and practice. However, the ESCC screening strategy currently adopted in China has encountered a developmental bottleneck. In this review, we have summarized studies and significant findings for ESCC screening and proposed advancement of screening strategies as follows: 1) evidence from randomized controlled trials is needed to support the effectiveness and health economic value of endoscopic screening for ESCC; 2) the current traditional screening and surveillance strategies warrant reform, and a risk-prediction-based precision strategy should be established; and 3) a deeper understanding of the value of opportunistic screening in the prevention and control of ESCC in China is called for. Due to the low absolute prevalence of precancerous lesions, substantial investment of resources and nonnegligible risks of invasive screening techniques, precision and individualization should be the main direction of cancer screening programs for the future. We advocate cooperation on the part of Chinese scientists to solve this major China-specific health problem in the next decades.

Identification of cancer patients using claims data from health insurance systems: A real-world comparative study

Objective

To evaluate the accuracy of identifying cancer patients by use of medical claims data in a health insurance system in China, and provide the basis for establishing the claims-based cancer surveillance system in China.

Methods

We chose Hua County, Henan Province as the study site, and randomly selected 300 and 1,200 qualified inpatient electronic medical records (EMRs) as well as the New Rural Cooperative Medical Scheme (NCMS) claims records for cancer patients in Hua County People’s Hospital (HCPH) and Anyang Cancer Hospital (ACH) in 2017. Diagnostic information for NCMS claims was evaluated on an individual level, and sensitivity and positive predictive value (PPV) were calculated taking the EMRs as the gold standard.

Results

The sensitivity of NCMS was 95.2% (93.8%−96.3%) and 92.0% (88.3%−94.8%) in ACH and HCPH, respectively. The PPV of the NCMS was 97.8% (96.7%−98.5%) in ACH and 89.0% (84.9%−92.3%) in HCPH. Overall, the weighted and combined sensitivity and PPV of NCMS in Hua County was 93.1% and 92.1%, respectively. Significantly higher sensitivity and PPV in identifying patients with common cancers than non-common cancers were detected in HCPH and ACH separately (P<0.01).

Conclusions

Identification of cancer patients by use of the NCMS is accurate on individual level, and it is therefore feasible to conduct claims-based cancer surveillance in areas not covered by cancer registries in China.