An index of cancer survival to measure progress in cancer control: A tutorial

BACKGROUND

Cancer survival is a key component to assess the overall effectiveness of healthcare systems in their cancer management efforts. A key supporting tool for planning and decision making was introduced with the development of an index of cancer survival that summarises survival for all adults and cancer types into one single estimate, but the implementation details have not been previously described.

METHODS

We detail the construction of the index, including the structure, the calculation of 'sex-age-cancer' specific weights and our proposed modelling strategy to estimate net survival. We provide some practical recommendations through an illustration using a synthetic dataset ('Replica') that we generated for this purpose. An example of R code usage to estimate the index using our approach is provided.

RESULTS

The 'Replica' contains 500 000 artificial cancer records that mimic a cohort of adult cancer patients diagnosed with cancer in England between 1980 and 2004. Using this dataset, we estimated an index of cancer survival at one, five, and ten years after diagnosis for five selected periods of diagnosis, and provide an example of interpretation of these results.

DISCUSSION

We propose a flexible penalised regression modelling strategy to estimate the index's 'sex-age-cancer' specific cancer survival components that minimises the estimation challenge of these components. This tutorial will support researchers in constructing an index of cancer survival for their own setting, facilitating the enrichment of existing toolkits of cancer indicators to more effectively measure progress against cancer in their respective regions/countries.

Extended excess hazard models for spatially dependent survival data

Relative survival represents the preferred framework for the analysis of population cancer survival data. The aim is to model the survival probability associated with cancer in the absence of information about the cause of death. Recent data linkage developments have allowed for incorporating the place of residence into the population cancer databases; however, modeling this spatial information has received little attention in the relative survival setting. We propose a flexible parametric class of spatial excess hazard models (along with inference tools), named "Relative Survival Spatial General Hazard," that allows for the inclusion of fixed and spatial effects in both time-level and hazard-level components. We illustrate the performance of the proposed model using an extensive simulation study, and provide guidelines about the interplay of sample size, censoring, and model misspecification. We present a case study using real data from colon cancer patients in England. This case study illustrates how a spatial model can be used to identify geographical areas with low cancer survival, as well as how to summarize such a model through marginal survival quantities and spatial effects.

The intersection of race/ethnicity and socioeconomic status: inequalities in breast and cervical cancer mortality in 20,665,005 adult women from the 100 Million Brazilian Cohort

OBJECTIVES

There is limited evidence regarding the impact of race/racism and its intersection with socioeconomic status (SES) on breast and cervical cancer, the two most common female cancers globally. We investigated racial inequalities in breast and cervical cancer mortality and whether SES (education and household conditions) interacted with race/ethnicity.

DESIGN

The 100 Million Brazilian Cohort data were linked to the Brazilian Mortality Database, 2004-2015 (n = 20,665,005 adult women). We analysed the association between self-reported race/ethnicity (White/'Parda'(Brown)/Black/Asian/Indigenous) and cancer mortality using Poisson regression, adjusting for age, calendar year, education, household conditions and area of residence. Additive and multiplicative interactions were assessed.

RESULTS

Cervical cancer mortality rates were higher among Indigenous (adjusted Mortality rate ratio = 1.80, 95%CI 1.39-2.33), Asian (1.63, 1.20-2.22), 'Parda'(Brown) (1.27, 1.21-1.33) and Black (1.18, 1.09-1.28) women vs White women. Breast cancer mortality rates were higher among Black (1.10, 1.04-1.17) vs White women. Racial inequalities in cervical cancer mortality were larger among women of poor household conditions, and low education (P for multiplicative interaction <0.001, and 0.02, respectively). Compared to White women living in completely adequate (3-4) household conditions, the risk of cervical cancer mortality in Black women with 3-4, 1-2, and none adequate conditions was 1.10 (1.01-1.21), 1.48 (1.28-1.71), and 2.03 (1.56-2.63), respectively (Relative excess risk due to interaction-RERI = 0.78, 0.18-1.38). Among 'Parda'(Brown) women the risk was 1.18 (1.11-1.25), 1.68 (1.56-1.81), and 1.84 (1.63-2.08), respectively (RERI = 0.52, 0.16-0.87). Compared to high-educated White women, the risk in high-, middle- and low-educated Black women was 1.14 (0.83-1.55), 1.93 (1.57-2.38) and 2.75 (2.33-3.25), respectively (RERI = 0.36, -0.05-0.77). Among 'Parda'(Brown) women the risk was 1.09 (0.91-1.31), 1.99 (1.70-2.33) and 3.03 (2.61-3.52), respectively (RERI = 0.68, 0.48-0.88). No interactions were found for breast cancer.

CONCLUSION

Low SES magnified racial inequalities in cervical cancer mortality. The intersection between race/ethnicity, SES and gender needs to be addressed to reduce racial health inequalities.

Inequalities in treatment among patients with colon and rectal cancer: a multistate survival model using data from England national cancer registry 2012-2016

BACKGROUND

Individual and tumour factors only explain part of observed inequalities in colorectal cancer survival in England. This study aims to investigate inequalities in treatment in patients with colorectal cancer.

METHODS

All patients diagnosed with colorectal cancer in England between 2012 and 2016 were followed up from the date of diagnosis (state 1), to treatment (state 2), death (state 3) or censored at 1 year after the diagnosis. A multistate approach with flexible parametric model was used to investigate the effect of income deprivation on the probability of remaining alive and treated in colorectal cancer.

RESULTS

Compared to the least deprived quintile, the most deprived with stage I-IV colorectal cancer had a lower probability of being alive and treated at all the time during follow-up, and a higher probability of being untreated and of dying. The probability differences (most vs. least deprived) of being alive and treated at 6 months ranged between -2.4% (95% CI: -4.3, -1.1) and -7.4% (-9.4, -5.3) for colon; between -2.0% (-3.5, -0.4) and -6.2% (-8.9, -3.5) for rectal cancer.

CONCLUSION

Persistent inequalities in treatment were observed in patients with colorectal cancer at every stage, due to delayed access to treatment and premature death.

Associations between treatments, comorbidities and multidimensional aspects of quality of life among patients with advanced cancer in the Netherlands-a 2017-2020 multicentre cross-sectional study

OBJECTIVE

To investigate associations between quality of life (QoL) and 1) immunotherapy and other cancer treatments received three months before QoL measurements, and 2) the comorbidities at the time of completion or in the year prior to QoL measurements, among patients with advanced cancer.

METHODS

A cross-sectional study is conducted on patients with advanced cancer in the Netherlands. The data come from the baseline wave of the 2017-2020 eQuiPe study. Participants were surveyed via questionnaires (including EORTC QLQ-C30). Using multivariable linear and logistic regression models, we explored statistical associations between QoL components and immunotherapy and other cancer treatments as well as pre-existing comorbidities while adjusting for age, sex, socio-economic status.

RESULTS

Of 1088 participants with median age 67 years, 51% were men. Immunotherapy was not associated with global QoL but was associated with reduced appetite loss (odds ratio (OR) = 0.6, 95%CI = [0.3,0.9]). Reduced global QoL was associated with chemotherapy (adjusted mean difference (β) = - 4.7, 95% CI [- 8.5,- 0.8]), back pain (β = - 7.4, 95% CI [- 11.0,- 3.8]), depression (β = - 13.8, 95% CI [- 21.5,- 6.2]), thyroid diseases (β = - 8.9, 95% CI [- 14.0,- 3.8]) and diabetes (β = - 4.5, 95% CI [- 8.9,- 0.5]). Chemotherapy was associated with lower physical (OR = 2.4, 95% CI [1.5,3.9]) and role (OR = 1.8, 95% CI [1.2,2.7]) functioning, and higher pain (OR = 1.9, 95% CI [1.3,2.9]) and fatigue (OR = 1.6, 95% CI [1.1,2.4]).

CONCLUSION

Our study identified associations between specific cancer treatments, lower QoL and more symptoms. Monitoring symptoms may improve QoL of patients with advanced cancer. Producing more evidence from real life data would help physicians in better identifying patients who require additional supportive care.

Efficacy of spesolimab for the treatment of generalized pustular psoriasis flares across pre-specified patient subgroups in the Effisayil 1 study

Effisayil 1 was a multicentre, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled study of the anti-interleukin (IL)-36 receptor monoclonal antibody, spesolimab, in patients presenting with a generalized pustular psoriasis (GPP) flare. Previously published data from this study revealed that within 1 week, rapid pustular and skin clearance were observed in patients receiving spesolimab versus placebo. In this pre-specified subgroup analysis, the efficacy of spesolimab was evaluated according to patient demographic and clinical characteristics at baseline in patients receiving spesolimab (n = 35) or placebo (n = 18) on Day 1. Efficacy was by assessed by achievement of primary endpoint (Generalized Pustular Psoriasis Physician Global Assessment [GPPGA] pustulation subscore of 0 at Week 1) and key secondary endpoint (GPPGA total score of 0 or 1 at Week 1). Safety was assessed at Week 1. Spesolimab was found to be efficacious and had a consistent and favourable safety profile in patients presenting with a GPP flare, regardless of patient demographics and clinical characteristics at baseline.

A CRIAÇÃO DE CONFIANÇA ATRAVÉS DE INTERFACES DIGITAIS

O exponencial avanço das plataformas digitais focadas em conectar e intermediar a oferta e a demanda gera necessidades de criar produtos digitais capazes de fomentar a confiança entre indivíduos desconhecidos. Para isto, as plataformas estão recorrendo a recursos de interface que possam auxiliar neste processo. Este artigo tem o objetivo avaliar como as plataformas digitais estão gerenciando as interações e estimulando a confiança entre compradores e vendedores. Para isto, foram analisados os recursos utilizados pelo Mercado Livre e pelo Olx em suas páginas de apresentação da oferta, e como estes recursos estão distribuídos e focados em auxiliar a tomada de decisão do comprador. Ao final, é possível notar as diretrizes claras adotadas em cada uma destas plataformas, e como as decisões de negócio e diferentes modelos de monetização estão diretamente conectadas com os recursos disponíveis na interface.

The effect of information from dash-based human-machine interfaces on drivers' gaze patterns and lane-change manoeuvres after conditionally automated driving

The goal of this paper was to measure the effect of Human-Machine Interface (HMI) information and guidance on drivers' gaze and takeover behaviour during transitions of control from automation. The motivation for this study came from a gap in the literature, where previous research reports improved performance of drivers' takeover based on HMI information, without considering its effect on drivers' visual attention distribution, and how drivers also use the information available in the environment to guide their response. This driving simulator study investigated drivers' lane-changing behaviour after resumption of control from automation. Different levels of information were provided on a dash-based HMI, prior to each lane change, to investigate how drivers distribute their attention between the surrounding environment and the HMI. The difficulty of the lane change was also manipulated by controlling the position of approaching vehicles in drivers' offside lane. Results indicated that drivers' decision-making time was sensitive to the presence of nearby vehicles in the offside lane, but not directly influenced by the information on the HMI. In terms of gaze behaviour, the closer the position of vehicles in the offside lane, the longer drivers looked in that direction. Drivers looked more at the HMI, and less towards the road centre, when the HMI presented information about automation status, and included an advisory message indicating it was safe to change lane. Machine learning techniques showed a strong relationship between drivers' gaze to the information presented on the HMI, and decision-making time (DMT). These results contribute to our understanding of HMI design for automated vehicles, by demonstrating the attentional costs of an overly-informative HMI, and that drivers still rely on environmental information to perform a lane-change, even when the same information can be acquired by the HMI of the vehicle.

THE PARTICIPATION OF UX DESIGNERS IN ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE PROJECTS: RECOMMENDER SYSTEMS

With technological advances, artificial intelligence has gained prominence and we increasingly find innovative products on the market, bringing it as a differential. One example is machine learning-based recommender systems, which filter content in a personalized way for each user, saving the user's time and cognitive effort. Like any novelty, the professional market is still maturing, and users are learning to interact with interfaces. The performance of a UX designer becomes relevant to ensure a good user experience. Therefore, it is important to investigate the market to map the participation of the UX designer in the development of products that use a recommendation system. For this purpose, this research involved market professionals in interviews to understand the UX Designer's participation in developing recommendation systems based on machine learning and identified several relevant issues that point to the need to focus on human factors. It also indicates the training of professionals, the generation of content on the theme of AI/ML aimed at designers and working on the culture of companies.

Follicular dynamics during the non-reproductive season in Miranda jennies

Jennies' follicular wave patterns have not yet been addressed during the non-breeding and transition seasons in anestrus jennies. Twelve non-pregnant females of the Miranda donkey breed were followed to describe follicular waves characteristics during the non-reproductive season and determine the anestrous effect in follicular wave patterns. Five jennies enrolled in this study experienced anestrus during the non-breeding season, but all retained the continuous emergence of follicular waves. The average duration of the waves from emergence to peak was 11.2±0.021 days (3-29 days). The duration of the different type of waves was 9.91±0.034 days for minor waves,12.5±0.232 days for major secondary waves and 12.5±0.057 for major primary waves. The major waves were significantly longer than the minor waves (P<0.001). Older jennies presented longer waves (P=0.021). In the jennies presenting anestrus, the wave duration during anestrus (11.2±0.125 days, n=31) was not different from the waves detected in the preceding and subsequent ovulatory cycles (11.3±0.084 days, n=43) (P=0.978). The number of follicular waves emerging in each ovulatory cycle (n=59) was 2.36±0.011 , varied from 1 to 4. Only in a small proportion of cycles one wave (0.8%) was recorded, with 41 cycles (67.2%) presenting two waves; fourteen cycles presenting three waves (24.6%) and three cycles (6.6%) showing 4 waves.

Variation in colon cancer survival for patients living and receiving care in London, 2006-2013: does where you live matter?

BACKGROUND

Marked geographical disparities in survival from colon cancer have been consistently described in England. Similar patterns have been observed within London, almost mimicking a microcosm of the country's survival patterns. This evidence has suggested that the area of residence plays an important role in the survival from cancer.

METHODS

We analysed the survival from colon cancer of patients diagnosed in 2006-2013, in a pre-pandemic period, living in London at their diagnosis and received care in a London hospital. We examined the patterns of patient pathways between the area of residence and the hospital of care using flow maps, and we investigated whether geographical variations in survival from colon cancer are associated with the hospital of care. To estimate survival, we applied a Bayesian excess hazard model which accounts for the hierarchical structure of the data.

RESULTS

Geographical disparities in colon cancer survival disappeared once controlled for hospitals, and the disparities seemed to be augmented between hospitals. However, close examination of patient pathways revealed that the poorer survival observed in some hospitals was mostly associated with higher proportions of emergency diagnosis, while their performance was generally as expected for patients diagnosed through non-emergency routes.

DISCUSSION

This study highlights the need to better coordinate primary and secondary care sectors in some areas of London to improve timely access to specialised clinicians and diagnostic tests. This challenge remains crucially relevant after the recent successive regroupings of Clinical Commissioning Groups (which grouped struggling areas together) and the observed exacerbation of disparities during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Socioeconomic gaps over time in colorectal cancer survival in England: flexible parametric survival analysis

BACKGROUND

Despite persistent reports of socioeconomic inequalities in colorectal cancer survival in England, the magnitude of survival differences has not been fully evaluated.

METHODS

Patients diagnosed with colon cancer (n=68 169) and rectal cancer (n=38 267) in England (diagnosed between January 2010 and March 2013) were analysed as a retrospective cohort study using the National Cancer Registry data linked with other population-based healthcare records. The flexible parametric model incorporating time-varying covariates was used to assess the difference in excess hazard of death and in net survival between the most affluent and the most deprived groups over time.

RESULTS

Survival analyses showed a clear pattern by deprivation. Hazard ratio of death was consistently higher in the most deprived group than the least deprived for both colon and rectal cancer, ranging from 1.08 to 1.17 depending on the model. On the net survival scale, the socioeconomic gap between the most and the least deprived groups reached approximately -4% at the maximum (-3.7%, 95% CI -1.6 to -5.7% in men, -3.6%, 95% CI -1.6 to -5.7% in women) in stages III for colon and approximately -2% (-2.3%, 95% CI -0.2 to -4.5% in men, -2.3%, 95% CI -0.2 to -4.3% in women) in stage II for rectal cancer at 3 years from diagnosis, after controlling for age, emergency presentation, receipt of resection and comorbidities. The gap was smaller in other stages and sites. For both cancers, patients with emergency presentation persistently had a higher excess hazard of death than those without emergency presentation.

CONCLUSION

Survival disparities were profound particularly among patients in the stages, which benefit from appropriate and timely treatment. For the patients with emergency presentation, excess hazard of death remained high throughout three years from the diagnosis. Public health measures should be taken to reduce access inequalities to improve survival disparities.

Triangle Singularity as the Origin of the a_{1}(1420)

The COMPASS Collaboration experiment recently discovered a new isovector resonancelike signal with axial-vector quantum numbers, the a_{1}(1420), decaying to f_{0}(980)π. With a mass too close to and a width smaller than the axial-vector ground state a_{1}(1260), it was immediately interpreted as a new light exotic meson, similar to the X, Y, Z states in the hidden-charm sector. We show that a resonancelike signal fully matching the experimental data is produced by the decay of the a_{1}(1260) resonance into K^{*}(→Kπ)K[over ¯] and subsequent rescattering through a triangle singularity into the coupled f_{0}(980)π channel. The amplitude for this process is calculated using a new approach based on dispersion relations. The triangle-singularity model is fitted to the partial-wave data of the COMPASS experiment. Despite having fewer parameters, this fit shows a slightly better quality than the one using a resonance hypothesis and thus eliminates the need for an additional resonance in order to describe the data. We thereby demonstrate for the first time in the light-meson sector that a resonancelike structure in the experimental data can be described by rescattering through a triangle singularity, providing evidence for a genuine three-body effect.

Using User Journey to map emotional oscillations during CoVID-19 social distancing

The CoVid-19 pandemic has demanded society to social distance, which significantly affected not only people's routine but also and their mental health. The way each person is facing this period of confinement is shaped according to their principles, culture, health, and financial stability, thus leading individuals to react emotionally in different ways. Through Design, it is possible to map these experiences and represent them through User Journeys, allowing clear representations of how the experience took place when facing the fear of contagion, the sudden change of routine, and isolation. This study focuses on discussing the effectiveness of unifying different experiences in a single representation, mainly to outline emotional aspects. Trying to balance all emotional variations in a single User Journey prevents the researcher from seeing important details of the users' experience. In this study, the need to use individual User Journeys was evidenced when it is intended to analyse the emotional aspects of users when dealing with products or services, as individuality can shed light on aspects not observable in a consolidated analysis.

Exploring socioeconomic differences in surgery and in time to elective surgery for colon cancer in England: Population-based study

BACKGROUND

A persistent socioeconomic gap in colon cancer survival is observed in England. Provision of cancer care may also vary by socioeconomic status (SES). We investigated population-based data to explore differential surgical care by SES.

METHODS

We analysed a retrospective cohort of patients diagnosed with colon cancer in England (2010-2013). We examined patterns of presentation and surgery by SES, and whether socioeconomic differences exist in the length of time from diagnosis to elective major resection using linear regression.

RESULTS

Among a total of 68 169 patients with colon cancer, 21.0 % (3138/14 917) in the most affluent group had emergency presentation (EP) whereas 27.9 % (2901/10 386) in the most deprived. Among 45 332 (66.5 %) patients who underwent resection, the proportion of patients receiving urgent surgery (surgery before or ≤ 7 days of diagnosis) was higher in the most deprived group (39.9 %, 2685/6733) than the most affluent (35.4 %, 3595/10 146). Days from diagnosis to elective surgery (surgery > 7 days after diagnosis) ranged from 33.9 (95 % CI 33.1-34.8) in stage II to 38.2 (95 % CI 36.8-39.7) in stage I, but no socioeconomic differences in time were seen in all stages.

CONCLUSIONS

Time to elective surgery for colon cancer did not differ by SES, whereas a higher proportion among deprived patients tended to be diagnosed through EP and to receive urgent surgery. These results suggest that the waiting time target may not be an appropriate measure to assess access to cancer care. Reducing both EP and urgent surgery should be a key policy target.

Donkey welfare assessment in north-east Portugal

The well-documented versatility of donkeys (Equus africanus asinus) means that issues concerning their welfare can vary depending on how they are mainly used and their geographic location. The present study is the first assessment of donkey welfare to be systematically conducted in the Iberian Peninsula. This area is characterised by the coexistence of high levels of mechanisation and industrialisation, and human populations with low levels of formal education, still making use of donkeys in their daily work. This study aims to evaluate the main welfare problems affecting donkeys within this context. The welfare assessment was carried out in accordance with the first level of the AWIN protocol for donkeys. Only 37.6% of the animals evaluated showed all positive indicators, with no physical problem detected while the remaining 62.4% revealed at least one negative health indicator. Body Condition Score (BCS) was one of the main concerns, with around half of the donkeys exhibiting an inadequate body condition. Dental evaluation revealed similarly concerning results, with 62.8% of the animals assessed requiring treatment. Indications of hoof neglect were noted in 39.5% of the animals evaluated with a 9.84% incidence of lameness. Skin problems affected 26.7% of individuals. Only 41% of the animals displayed positive results for all behavioural indicators. Aside from BCS, the most prevalent problems were sub-optimal behaviour, pain reaction to cheek palpation, hoof disease and integument alterations. These issues should be prioritised, both as regards this specific donkey population and the education of their caretakers.

Looking through the window: emotional experiences of Instagram users in isolation

The impact of COVID-19 pandemic on the health and wellbeing of people around the world has become an important research topic. Even for non-essential workers, social isolation has drastically changed people’s lives and habits. Considering that our daily lives and habits occur largely through the intermediation of products and services, social isolation may have drastically changed people's relationship with the products and services surrounding them. Thus, social media apps like Instagram have become crucial sources of information, social connection, and entertainment for the socially isolated. This article investigates the role of social media applications in people’s daily lives in isolation, based on the analysis of their emotional experiences. To this end, an exploratory study was carried out with 13 users in social isolation, based on diaries in which they reported the experiences they had through the Instagram platform from June 15th to June 29th. Results showed that Instagram had brought predominantly positive experiences to its users; however, negative emotions related to an excess of information and content consumption were also relevant. The results and conclusions of this work can be considered in future investigations about parameters for developing digital products that aim to reduce negative experiences and anxiety.

Citizen data-driven design for pandemic monitoring

In a world concerned with the coronavirus pandemic, many governments do not know how to control the disease. Although there are several technologies that generate citizen data, transparency, and privacy are very important to ensure social engagement and more effectiveness in fighting the virus. This article analyzed some applications that contact tracing people or inform them about the disease. We selected the applications based on how they captured data, privacy issues, citizen participation, and the main challenges faced. Later, we created the app journey map to compare them and discovered the most used technology is Bluetooth, and the apps often have open source. However, these initiatives bring superficial insights and need to integrate with more complex data.

Interactive Voice Response systems for informing citizens about the COVID-19 pandemic: A study on Brazil's Disque Saúde

In order to slow down the spread of the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, it is vital to adopt measures to inform citizens about preventive actions. Such an operation requires a wide-ranged system that comprises a variety of interfaces as channels between citizens and healthcare authority’s information services. Amongst such interfaces, the Interactive Voice Response (IVR) systems can present benefits for informing citizens about the pandemic. Although the literature shows that IVR systems have been used for healthcare, the extent of the COVID-19 pandemic demands new examinations on the role of IVR systems on a multiplatform system for delivering information. This paper aimed to identify gaps and opportunities for the use of IVR systems to inform citizens about the COVID-19 pandemic. A case study was conducted by mapping the Brazilian Ministry of Healthcare’s channels of information about the coronavirus and analyzing the Disque Saúde IVR system – a phone-based ombudsman channel -  based on literature recommendations. The results showed that while IVR systems have great potential for accessibility, it is essential that all types of information are available and continuously updated for citizens. Furthermore, the vast and mutable availability of information in a pandemic scenario may be a challenge for the usability of such systems. 

The effect of motor control requirements on drivers' eye-gaze pattern during automated driving

This driving simulator study compared drivers' eye movements during a series of lane-changes, which required different levels of motor control for their execution. Participants completed 12 lane-changing manoeuvres in three drives, categorised by degree of manual engagement with the driving task: Fully Manual Drive, Manual Intervention Required, Fully Automated Drive (Manual drive, Partial automation, Full automation). For Partial automation, drivers resumed control from the automated system and changed lane manually. For Full automation, the automated system managed the lane change, but participants initiated the manoeuvre by pulling the indicator lever. Results were compared to the Manual drive condition, where drivers controlled the vehicle at all times. For each driving condition, lane changing was initiated by drivers, at their discretion, in response to a slow-moving lead vehicle, which entered their lane. Failure to change lane did not result in a collision. To understand how different motor control requirements affected driver visual attention, eye movements to the road centre, and drivers' vertical and horizontal gaze dispersion were compared during different stages of the lane change manoeuvre, for the three drives. Results showed that drivers' attention to the road centre was generally lower for drives with less motor control requirements, especially when they were not engaged in the lane change process. However, as drivers moved closer to the lead vehicle, and prepared to change lane, the pattern of eye movements to the road centre converged, regardless of whether drivers were responsible for the manual control of the lane change. While there were no significant differences in horizontal gaze dispersion between the three drives, vertical dispersion for the two levels of automation was quite different, with higher dispersion during Partial automation, which was due to a higher reliance on the HMI placed in the centre console.

Breast cancer survival and survival gap apportionment in sub-Saharan Africa (ABC-DO): a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Breast cancer is the second leading cause of death from cancer in women in sub-Saharan Africa, yet there are few well characterised large-scale survival studies with complete follow-up data. We aimed to provide robust survival estimates in women in this setting and apportion the survival gaps.

METHODS

The African Breast Cancer-Disparities in Outcomes (ABC-DO) prospective cohort study was done at eight hospitals across five sub-Saharan African countries (Namibia, Nigeria, South Africa, Uganda, and Zambia). We prospectively recruited women (aged ≥18 years) who attended these hospitals with suspected breast cancer. Women were actively followed up by use of a telephone call once every 3 months, and a mobile health application was used to keep a dynamic record of follow-up calls due. We collected detailed sociodemographic, clinical, and treatment data. The primary outcome was 3-year overall survival, analysed by use of flexible proportional mortality models, and we predicted survival under scenarios of modified distributions of risk factors.

FINDINGS

Between Sept 8, 2014, and Dec 31, 2017, 2313 women were recruited from these eight hospitals, of whom 85 did not have breast cancer. Of the remaining 2228 women with breast cancer, 58 women with previous treatment or recurrence, and 14 women from small racial groups (white and Asian women in South Africa), were excluded. Of the 2156 women analysed, 1840 (85%) were histologically confirmed, 129 (6%) were cytologically confirmed, and 187 (9%) were clinically confirmed to have breast cancer. 2156 (97%) women were followed up for up to 3 years or up to Jan 1, 2019, whichever was earlier. Up to this date, 879 (41%) of these women had died, 1118 (52%) were alive, and 159 (7%) were censored early. 3-year overall survival was 50% (95% CI 48-53), but we observed variations in 3-year survival between different races in Namibia (from 90% in white women to 56% in Black women) and in South Africa (from 76% in mixed-race women to 59% in Black women), and between different countries (44-47% in Uganda and Zambia vs 36% in Nigeria). 215 (10%) of all women had died within 6 months of diagnosis, but 3-year overall survival remained low in women who survived to this timepoint (58%). Among survival determinants, improvements in early diagnosis and treatment were predicted to contribute to the largest increases in survival, with a combined absolute increase in survival of up to 22% in Nigeria, Zambia, and Uganda, when compared with the contributions of other factors (such as HIV or aggressive subtypes).

INTERPRETATION

Large variations in breast cancer survival in sub-Saharan African countries indicate that improvements are possible. At least a third of the projected 416 000 breast cancer deaths that will occur in this region in the next decade could be prevented through achievable downstaging and improvements in treatment. Improving survival in socially disadvantaged women warrants special attention.

FUNDING

Susan G Komen and the International Agency for Research on Cancer.

OP0115 EFFECT OF NINTEDANIB ON PROGRESSION OF INTERSTITIAL LUNG DISEASE (ILD) IN PATIENTS WITH AUTOIMMUNE DISEASE-RELATED ILDS: FURTHER DATA FROM THE INBUILD TRIAL

Background:

In the INBUILD trial in patients with progressive fibrosing ILDs, nintedanib reduced the rate of decline in forced vital capacity (FVC) versus placebo over 52 weeks both in the overall population and in the subgroup with autoimmune disease-related ILDs. Patients continued blinded randomised treatment until the end of the trial.

Objectives:

Assess the effects of nintedanib on the risks of death, acute exacerbation of ILD or death, and disease progression or death over the whole INBUILD trial in patients with autoimmune disease-related ILDs and a progressive phenotype.

Methods:

Patients with progressive fibrosing ILDs other than idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) were randomised to receive nintedanib 150 mg bid or placebo. Time to i) death, ii) first acute exacerbation of ILD or death, and iii) disease progression (absolute decline in FVC ≥10% predicted) or death, over the whole trial were analysed in patients with autoimmune disease-related ILDs. Incidence rates of adverse events per 100 patient–years were calculated based on events with onset between the first trial drug intake and the last intake plus 28 days. Analyses were descriptive.

Results:

Of 663 patients, 170 (82 nintedanib, 88 placebo) had autoimmune disease-related ILDs (89 RA-ILD, 39 SSc-ILD, 19 MCTD-ILD, 23 other autoimmune ILDs including Sjogren’s disease-related ILD [n=7], interstitial pneumonia with autoimmune features [n=5] and undifferentiated CTD-ILD [n=3]). Over the whole trial, in the nintedanib and placebo groups, respectively, mean (SD) exposure to drug was 15.4 (7.4) and 16.9 (6.1) months and maximum exposure was 26.0 and 25.2 months; 62 (75.6%) and 68 (77.3%) patients in these groups, respectively, completed the planned observation time. Over the whole trial, in the nintedanib and placebo groups, respectively, 9.8% and 12.5% of patients died, 12.2% and 20.5% of patients had ≥1 acute exacerbation of ILD or died, and 40.2% and 53.4% of patients had disease progression or died (Table). Diarrhoea was the most common adverse event, with incidence rates of 139.2 and 26.3 events per 100 patient–years in the nintedanib and placebo groups, respectively. Adverse events led to treatment discontinuation in 20.7% of patients in the nintedanib group and 13.6% of patients in the placebo group.

Conclusion:

Data from the INBUILD trial suggest that nintedanib has a clinically meaningful effect on slowing the progression of ILD in patients with progressive fibrosing autoimmune disease-related ILDs, with adverse events that can be tolerated by most patients.

Table.Nintedanib (n=82)Placebo (n=88)HR (95% CI)*Death8 (9.8)11 (12.5)0.80 (0.32, 1.98)≥1 acute exacerbation of ILD or death10 (12.2)18 (20.5)0.58 (0.27, 1.27)Disease progression (absolute decline in FVC ≥10% predicted) or death33 (40.2)47 (53.4)0.72 (0.46, 1.13)

n (%) with event over the whole trial (mean [SD] exposure: 15.4 [7.4] and 16.9 [6.1] months in nintedanib and placebo groups, respectively). *Based on time to first event.

Disclosure of Interests:

Eric Matteson Grant/research support from: Pfizer, Consultant of: Boehringer Ingelheim, Gilead, TympoBio, Arena Pharmaceuticals, Speakers bureau: Simply Speaking, Clive Kelly Consultant of: Boehringer Ingelheim, Speakers bureau: Boehringer Ingelheim, Jörg Distler Grant/research support from: Boehringer Ingelheim, Consultant of: Boehringer Ingelheim, Paid instructor for: Boehringer Ingelheim, Speakers bureau: Boehringer Ingelheim, Anna-Maria Hoffmann-Vold Grant/research support from: Boehringer Ingelheim, Consultant of: Boehringer Ingelheim, Actelion, Bayer, GlaxoSmithKline, Speakers bureau: Boehringer Ingelheim, Actelion, Roche, James Seibold Shareholder of: BriaCell, Pacific Therapeutics, Consultant of: Atlantic, Blade Therapeutics, Eicos Sciences, Eiger Biopharmaceuticals, Indalo Therapeutics, Mitsubishi Tanabe Pharma, Bayer, Xenikos, Boehringer Ingelheim, Camurus, Corbus Pharmaceuticals, EMD Serono, Speakers bureau: Boehringer Ingelheim, Shikha Mittoo Grant/research support from: Pfizer, Consultant of: Novartis, Abbvie, Pfizer, Oliver Distler Grant/research support from: Grants/Research support from Actelion, Bayer, Boehringer Ingelheim, Competitive Drug Development International Ltd. and Mitsubishi Tanabe; he also holds the issued Patent on mir-29 for the treatment of systemic sclerosis (US8247389, EP2331143)., Consultant of: Consultancy fees from Actelion, Acceleron Pharma, AnaMar, Bayer, Baecon Discovery, Blade Therapeutics, Boehringer, CSL Behring, Catenion, ChemomAb, Curzion Pharmaceuticals, Ergonex, Galapagos NV, GSK, Glenmark Pharmaceuticals, Inventiva, Italfarmaco, iQvia, medac, Medscape, Mitsubishi Tanabe Pharma, MSD, Roche, Sanofi and UCB, Speakers bureau: Speaker fees from Actelion, Bayer, Boehringer Ingelheim, Medscape, Pfizer and Roche, Paul F. Dellaripa Grant/research support from: Paul Dellaripa has received institutional grants from Genentech, Consultant of: Paul Dellaripa participated in advisory boards for Boehringer Ingelheim, Alexandra James Employee of: Employee of Boehringer Ingelheim, Rozsa Schlenker-Herceg Employee of: Employee of Boehringer Ingelheim, Susanne Stowasser Employee of: Employee of Boehringer Ingelheim, Manuel Quaresma Employee of: Employee of Boehringer Ingelheim, Kevin R. Flaherty Grant/research support from: Kevin Flaherty has received grants from Boehringer Ingelheim, Consultant of: Kevin Flaherty has acted as a consultant for Boehringer Ingelheim, Bellerophon, Blade Therapeutics, Roche/Genentech, and Veracyte

He was a member of the INBUILD trial Steering Committee

THU0330 EFFECTS OF NINTEDANIB IN PATIENTS WITH SYSTEMIC SCLEROSIS-ASSOCIATED ILD (SSC-ILD) AND DIFFERING EXTENTS OF SKIN FIBROSIS: FURTHER ANALYSES OF THE SENSCIS TRIAL

Background:

In the SENSCIS trial, nintedanib reduced the progression of SSc-ILD compared with placebo, as shown by a significantly lower rate of decline in forced vital capacity (FVC) over 52 weeks. There was no significant difference between treatment groups in change in modified Rodnan skin score (mRSS) at week 52. An mRSS of 18–25 has been proposed as an upper cut-off to enrich a cohort for skin-progressive patients. Progression of skin fibrosis has been associated with later progression of ILD.

Objectives:

To assess the effects of nintedanib on the rate of FVC decline and change in mRSS in the SENSCIS trial in subgroups by mRSS <18 and ≥18 at baseline.

Methods:

Patients with SSc-ILD with onset of first non-Raynaud symptom <7 years before screening and ≥10% fibrosis of the lungs on a high-resolution computed tomography scan were randomised to receive nintedanib or placebo. We analysed the rate of decline in FVC (ml/year) over 52 weeks and the change from baseline in mRSS at week 52 in subgroups by mRSS (<18; ≥18) at baseline.

Results:

In the nintedanib and placebo groups, respectively, 219/288 (76.0%) and 226/288 (78.5%) patients had mRSS <18 at baseline. Compared with those with mRSS <18, patients with mRSS ≥18 had a lower mean FVC % predicted (68.3% vs 73.7%) and greater proportions were taking mycophenolate at baseline (58.1% vs 45.6%), were anti-topoisomerase I antibody positive (67.4% vs 58.7%) and had diffuse cutaneous SSc (100% vs 37.8%). The mean (SE) annual rate of decline in FVC in the placebo group was numerically greater in patients who had mRSS ≥18 than mRSS <18 at baseline (-131.7 [29.2] mL/year vs -81.4 [15.4] mL/year). The effect of nintedanib vs placebo on reducing the annual rate of decline in FVC was numerically more pronounced in patients with mRSS ≥18 (difference: 88.7 mL/year [95% CI 7.7, 169.8]) than mRSS <18 (difference: 26.4 mL/year (95% CI -16.8, 69.6) at baseline, but statistical testing did not indicate heterogeneity in the treatment effect of nintedanib between subgroups (p=0.18 for treatment-by-time-by-subgroup interaction) (Figure). In the nintedanib and placebo groups, respectively, changes in mRSS at week 52 were -2.2 (0.3) and -2.1 (0.3) (difference -0.1 [95% CI -1.0, 0.7]) in patients with mRSS <18 at baseline and -2.1 (0.7) and -1.6 (0.7) (difference -0.6 [95% CI -2.1, 1.0]) in patients with mRSS ≥18 at baseline (p=0.62 for treatment-by-visit-by-subgroup interaction).

Conclusion:

In the placebo group of the SENSCIS trial, the rate of decline in FVC over 52 weeks was numerically greater in patients with mRSS ≥18 than <18 at baseline, while reductions in mRSS were similar. A lower rate of FVC decline was observed in patients treated with nintedanib than placebo both in patients with mRSS ≥18 and <18 at baseline.

Acknowledgments:

The SENSCIS trial was funded by Boehringer Ingelheim

Disclosure of Interests:

Yannick Allanore Grant/research support from: Yannick Allanore has received grants from Inventiva, Roche and Sanofi, Consultant of: Yannick Allanore has received fees from Actelion, Bayer, Boehringer Ingelheim, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Curzion, Inventiva, Roche, Sanofi, Viginia Steen Grant/research support from: The associated affiliation has received grants/research from Boehringer Ingelheim, Corbus Pharmaceuticals, CSL Behring, Eicos, Galapagos, Immune Tolerance Network, Reata, Consultant of: Virginia Steen has acted as a consultant for Boehringer Ingelheim, Corbus, CSL Behring, Eicos, Forbius, Masataka Kuwana Grant/research support from: Acetelion, Consultant of: Acetelion, Bayer, Chugai, Corbus Pharmaceuticals, CSL Behring and Reata Pharmaceuticals. He was a member of the SENSCIS trial Steering Committee (Boehringer Ingelheim), Christopher Denton Grant/research support from: GlaxoSmithKline, CSL Behring, and Inventiva, Consultant of: Medscape, Roche-Genentech, Actelion, GlaxoSmithKline, Sanofi Aventis, Inventiva, CSL Behring, Boehringer Ingelheim, Corbus Pharmaceuticals, Acceleron, Curzion and Bayer, Marco Matucci-Cerinic Grant/research support from: Actelion, MSD, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Speakers bureau: Acetelion, Lilly, Boehringer Ingelheim, Elizabeth Volkmann Grant/research support from: Forbius, Corbus Pharmaceuticals, Consultant of: Boehringer Ingelheim, Forbius, Speakers bureau: Boehringer Ingelheim, Dinesh Khanna Shareholder of: Eicos Sciences, Inc./Civi Biopharma, Inc., Grant/research support from: Dr Khanna was supported by NIH/NIAMS K24AR063120, Consultant of: Acceleron, Actelion, Bayer, Boehringer Ingelheim, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Corbus Pharmaceuticals, Horizon Therapeutic, Galapagos, Roche/Genentech, GlaxoSmithKline, Mitsubishi Tanabe, Sanofi-Aventis/Genzyme, UCB, Daniel Wachtlin Employee of: Employee of Boehringer Ingelheim, Martina Gahlemann Employee of: Employee of Boehringer Ingelheim, Manuel Quaresma Employee of: Employee of Boehringer Ingelheim, Margarida Alves Employee of: Employee of Boehringer Ingelheim, Oliver Distler Grant/research support from: Grants/Research support from Actelion, Bayer, Boehringer Ingelheim, Competitive Drug Development International Ltd. and Mitsubishi Tanabe; he also holds the issued Patent on mir-29 for the treatment of systemic sclerosis (US8247389, EP2331143)., Consultant of: Consultancy fees from Actelion, Acceleron Pharma, AnaMar, Bayer, Baecon Discovery, Blade Therapeutics, Boehringer, CSL Behring, Catenion, ChemomAb, Curzion Pharmaceuticals, Ergonex, Galapagos NV, GSK, Glenmark Pharmaceuticals, Inventiva, Italfarmaco, iQvia, medac, Medscape, Mitsubishi Tanabe Pharma, MSD, Roche, Sanofi and UCB, Speakers bureau: Speaker fees from Actelion, Bayer, Boehringer Ingelheim, Medscape, Pfizer and Roche

SAT0157 NINTEDANIB DOSE ADJUSTMENTS AND ADVERSE EVENTS IN PATIENTS WITH PROGRESSIVE AUTOIMMUNE DISEASE-RELATED INTERSTITIAL LUNG DISEASES IN THE INBUILD TRIAL

Background:

In the INBUILD trial in patients with progressive fibrosing ILDs, the adverse event (AE) profile of nintedanib was characterised predominantly by gastrointestinal AEs. Dose adjustments were used to manage AEs.

Objectives:

Assess AEs and dose adjustments in patients with autoimmune disease-related ILDs in the INBUILD trial.

Methods:

Patients with progressive fibrosing ILDs other than idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis were randomised to nintedanib 150 mg bid or placebo. Dose reductions to 100 mg bid and treatment interruptions were permitted to manage AEs. AEs over 52 weeks of treatment (or 28 days after last trial drug intake for patients who discontinued drug before week 52) were assessed in patients who received ≥1 dose of trial drug.

Results:

Of 663 patients in the INBUILD trial, 170 (82 nintedanib, 88 placebo) had autoimmune disease-related ILDs (89 RA-ILD, 39 SSc-ILD, 19 MCTD-ILD, 23 other autoimmune ILDs). In the nintedanib and placebo groups of patients with autoimmune disease-related ILDs, respectively, over 52 weeks, the proportions of patients with ≥1 dose reduction were 28.0% and 3.4%, with ≥1 treatment interruption were 31.7% and 10.2%, and with ≥1 dose reduction and/or treatment interruption were 40.2% and 12.5% (Table). Dose intensity (amount of drug administered divided by amount that would have been received had 150 mg bid been administered over 52 weeks or until permanent treatment discontinuation) was >90% in 80.5% of patients in the nintedanib group and 95.5% in the placebo group. AEs led to permanent treatment discontinuation in 17.1% and 10.2% of patients treated with nintedanib and placebo, respectively. Diarrhoea was the most common AE, reported in 63.4% and 27.3% of patients in the nintedanib and placebo groups, respectively. Diarrhoea AEs led to dose reduction, treatment interruption and permanent treatment discontinuation in 7.3%, 9.8% and 4.9% of patients in the nintedanib group, compared with 0%, 1.1% and 1.1% of patients in the placebo group, respectively. Of the nintedanib-treated patients who experienced ≥1 diarrhoea AE, 80.8% experienced 1 or 2 events and 76.9% experienced events that were mild at worst (Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events [CTCAE] grade 1).

Conclusion:

In the INBUILD trial, management of AEs via dose adjustments enabled most patients with autoimmune disease-related ILDs to remain on treatment for 52 weeks. Diarrhoea was the AE that most commonly led to dose adjustment.

TableNintedanib(n=82)Placebo (n=88)Patients with ≥1 dose reduction or treatment interruption33 (40.2)11 (12.5)Patients with ≥1 dose reduction23 (28.0)3 (3.4)Total number of dose reductions253Patients with ≥1 dose re-escalation after dose reduction5 (6.1)2 (2.3)Patients with ≥1 treatment interruption26 (31.7)9 (10.2)Total number of treatment interruptions3211Total duration of treatment interruptions, days, mean (SD)20.1 (15.1)19.3 (20.7)

Disclosure of Interests:

Elizabeth Volkmann Grant/research support from: Forbius, Corbus Pharmaceuticals, Consultant of: Boehringer Ingelheim, Forbius, Speakers bureau: Boehringer Ingelheim, Ivan Castellví Consultant of: Boehringer Ingelheim, Actelion, Kern Pharma, Speakers bureau: Boehringer Ingelheim, Actelion, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Roche, Sindhu Johnson Grant/research support from: Boehringer Ingelheim, Corbus Pharmaceuticals, GlaxoSmithKline, Roche, Merck, Bayer, Consultant of: Boehringer Ingelheim, Ikaria, Eric Matteson Grant/research support from: Pfizer, Consultant of: Boehringer Ingelheim, Gilead, TympoBio, Arena Pharmaceuticals, Speakers bureau: Simply Speaking, Jörg Distler Grant/research support from: Boehringer Ingelheim, Consultant of: Boehringer Ingelheim, Paid instructor for: Boehringer Ingelheim, Speakers bureau: Boehringer Ingelheim, James Seibold Shareholder of: BriaCell, Pacific Therapeutics, Consultant of: Atlantic, Blade Therapeutics, Eicos Sciences, Eiger Biopharmaceuticals, Indalo Therapeutics, Mitsubishi Tanabe Pharma, Bayer, Xenikos, Boehringer Ingelheim, Camurus, Corbus Pharmaceuticals, EMD Serono, Speakers bureau: Boehringer Ingelheim, Ulrich Costabel Consultant of: Boehringer Ingelheim, Roche, Fibrogen, Global Blood Therapeutics, Speakers bureau: Boehringer Ingelheim, Roche, AstraZeneca, Alexandra James Employee of: Employee of Boehringer Ingelheim, Carl Coeck Employee of: Employee of Boehringer Ingelheim, Manuel Quaresma Employee of: Employee of Boehringer Ingelheim, Vincent Cottin Grant/research support from: Boehringer Ingelheim, Roche, Consultant of: Boehringer Ingelheim, Roche, Actelion, Bayer, Gilead Sciences, Novartis, Promedior, Celgene, Galapagos, Galecto. He was a member of the INBUILD trial Steering Committee., Speakers bureau: Actelion, Boehringer Ingelheim, Novartis, Roche, Sanofi

Flexible Bayesian excess hazard models using low-rank thin plate splines

Excess hazard models became the preferred modelling tool in population-based cancer survival research. In this setting, the model is commonly formulated as the additive decomposition of the overall hazard into two components: the excess hazard due to the cancer of interest and the population hazard due to all other causes of death. We introduce a flexible Bayesian regression model for the log-excess hazard where the baseline log-excess hazard and any non-linear effects of covariates are modelled using low-rank thin plate splines. Using this type of splines will ensure that the log-likelihood function retains tractability not requiring numerical integration. We demonstrate how to derive posterior distributions for the excess hazard and for net survival, a population-level measure of cancer survival that can be derived from excess hazard models. We illustrate the proposed model using survival data for patients diagnosed with colon cancer during 2009 in London, England.

SAT0313 CORRELATION BETWEEN PROGRESSION OF SKIN FIBROSIS AND PROGRESSION OF INTERSTITIAL LUNG DISEASE (ILD) IN PATIENTS WITH SSC-ILD: DATA FROM THE SENSCIS TRIAL

Background:

In the SENSCIS trial in patients with SSc-ILD, nintedanib reduced the rate of decline in FVC over 52 weeks vs placebo, with no difference between groups in change in mRSS.

Objectives:

Analyse correlation between progression of skin fibrosis and progression of SSc-ILD in the SENSCIS trial.

Methods:

Patients with SSc-ILD were randomised to receive nintedanib or placebo until the last patient reached week 52 but for ≤100 weeks. We calculated Spearman correlation coefficients between FVC (mL) at baseline and change from baseline in mRSS, mRSS at baseline and change from baseline in FVC (mL), and changes from baseline in mRSS and FVC at weeks 52 and 100 in all patients. We analysed the rate of decline in FVC (mL/year) in patients who did and did not have progression of skin fibrosis (relative change from baseline in mRSS >25% and absolute change from baseline >5 points) at week 52.

Results:

In the nintedanib (n=288) and placebo (n=288) groups, respectively, mean (SD) baseline FVC (mL) was 2459 (736) and 2541 (816) and mRSS was 11.3 (9.2) and 10.9 (8.8); 53.1% and 50.7% had dcSSc;18.4% and 16.0% had progression of mRSS at week 52. No meaningful correlations were observed in analyses between mRSS and FVC (Table). The mean (SE) annual rate of decline in FVC in the placebo group was similar in patients who did and did not have progression of mRSS (-95.2 [27.1] and -91.4 [15.7] mL/year, respectively). The effect of nintedanib vs placebo on reducing the rate of decline in FVC was numerically more pronounced in patients who did not have progression of mRSS vs those who did (difference [95% CI] 44.3 mL/year [0.6, 88.1] vs 24.6 [-53.7, 102.9]), but the interaction p-value (0.66) did not indicate heterogeneity in treatment effect between subgroups.

Conclusion:

In the SENSCIS trial, the proportion of patients who had progression of skin fibrosis over 52 weeks was low, without significant differences between placebo and nintedanib. No meaningful correlations were observed between skin fibrosis at baseline or progression of skin fibrosis and progression of SSc-ILD. The rate of decline in FVC was similar between patients who did and did not have progression of mRSS. These findings suggest that in the overall patient population in the SENSCIS trial, progression of skin fibrosis and progression of ILD were distinct manifestations of disease progression.

Table:FVC at baseline and change from baseline in mRSSmRSS at baseline and change from baseline in FVCChanges from baseline in mRSS and FVCNCorrelation*NCorrelation*NCorrelation*Week 52Nintedanib2470.11 (-0.01, 0.23)241-0.08 (-0.20, 0.05)238-0.07 (-0.19, 0.06)Placebo2540.12 (-0.00, 0.24)257-0.15 (-0.27, -0.03)2520.03 (-0.09, 0.15)Week 100Nintedanib730.21 (-0.02, 0.42)73-0.06 (-0.29, 0.17)700.06 (-0.17, 0.30)Placebo660.28 (0.04, 0.49)730.04 (-0.19, 0.27)66-0.14 (-0.37, 0.10)

*Spearman correlation coefficient (95% CI)

Disclosure of Interests:

Oliver Distler Grant/research support from: Grants/Research support from Actelion, Bayer, Boehringer Ingelheim, Competitive Drug Development International Ltd. and Mitsubishi Tanabe; he also holds the issued Patent on mir-29 for the treatment of systemic sclerosis (US8247389, EP2331143)., Consultant of: Consultancy fees from Actelion, Acceleron Pharma, AnaMar, Bayer, Baecon Discovery, Blade Therapeutics, Boehringer, CSL Behring, Catenion, ChemomAb, Curzion Pharmaceuticals, Ergonex, Galapagos NV, GSK, Glenmark Pharmaceuticals, Inventiva, Italfarmaco, iQvia, medac, Medscape, Mitsubishi Tanabe Pharma, MSD, Roche, Sanofi and UCB, Speakers bureau: Speaker fees from Actelion, Bayer, Boehringer Ingelheim, Medscape, Pfizer and Roche, Kristin Highland Grant/research support from: Boehringer Ingelheim - PI for SENSCIS and SENSCIS-ON trials (paid to my institution), Consultant of: Kristin Highland has acted as a consultant to Boehringer Ingelheim. She was a member of the SENSCIS trial Steering Committee (Boehringer Ingelheim), Speakers bureau: Kristin Highland reports speaker fees from Boehringer Ingelheim, Anna-Maria Hoffmann-Vold Grant/research support from: Boehringer Ingelheim, Consultant of: Boehringer Ingelheim, Actelion, Bayer, GlaxoSmithKline, Speakers bureau: Boehringer Ingelheim, Actelion, Roche, Otylia Kowal-Bielecka Grant/research support from: Boehringer Ingelheim, Consultant of: Boehringer Ingelheim, Inventiva, MSD, Novartis, Speakers bureau: Boehringer Ingelheim, Medac, Novartis, Roche, Sandoz, Ulrich Walker Grant/research support from: Ulrich Walker has received an unrestricted research grant from Abbvie, Consultant of: Ulrich Walker has act as a consultant for Abbvie, Actelion, Boehringer Ingelheim, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Celgene, MSD, Novartis, Pfizer, Phadia, Roche, Sandoz, Sanofi, and ThermoFisher, Paid instructor for: Abbvie, Novartis, and Roche, Speakers bureau: Abbvie, Actelion, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Celgene, MSD, Novartis, Pfizer, Phadia, Roche, Sandoz, and ThermoFisher, Francesco Del Galdo: None declared, Madelon Vonk Grant/research support from: Janssen and Ferrer, Consultant of: Boehringer Ingelheim, Janssen and GSK, Speakers bureau: Boehringer Ingelheim, BMS and Roche, Laura Hummers Grant/research support from: Boehringer Ingleheim, Corbus pharmaceuticals, CSL Behring, Cumberland Pharmaceuticals, and GlaxoSmithKline, Consultant of: Boehringer Ingleheim, Corbus pharmaceuticals, and CSL Behring, Elvira Erhardt Employee of: Employee of Boehringer Ingelheim, Manuel Quaresma Employee of: Employee of Boehringer Ingelheim, Margarida Alves Employee of: Employee of Boehringer Ingelheim, Vanessa Smith Grant/research support from: The affiliated company received grants from Research Foundation - Flanders (FWO), Belgian Fund for Scientific Research in Rheumatic diseases (FWRO), Boehringer Ingelheim Pharma GmbH & Co and Janssen-Cilag NV, Consultant of: Boehringer-Ingelheim Pharma GmbH & Co, Speakers bureau: Actelion Pharmaceuticals Ltd, Boehringer-Ingelheim Pharma GmbH & Co and UCB Biopharma Sprl

THU0189 EFFICACY AND SAFETY OF NINTEDANIB IN PATIENTS WITH AUTOIMMUNE DISEASE-RELATED INTERSTITIAL LUNG DISEASE TREATED WITH DMARDS AND/OR GLUCOCORTICOIDS AT BASELINE

Background:

In the INBUILD trial in patients with progressive fibrosing ILDs, nintedanib reduced the rate of decline in forced vital capacity (FVC) vs placebo over 52 weeks in the overall population and in the subgroup with autoimmune disease-related ILDs. Patients taking stable doses of medications to treat RA or CTD were eligible, but the protocol excluded enrolment of patients treated with azathioprine, cyclosporine, mycophenolate, tacrolimus, rituximab, cyclophosphamide, or oral glucocorticoids >20 mg/day.

Objectives:

Assess the influence of DMARDs and/or glucocorticoids at baseline on the efficacy and safety of nintedanib in patients with progressive autoimmune disease-related ILDs.

Methods:

In patients with progressive autoimmune disease-related ILDs in the INBUILD trial, the rate of decline in FVC (mL/year) and adverse events (AEs) over 52 weeks of treatment (or until 28 days after last trial drug intake for patients who discontinued drug before week 52) were assessed in subgroups by use of DMARDs and/or glucocorticoids (any dose) at baseline (yes/no).

Results:

170 patients in the INBUILD trial (82 nintedanib, 88 placebo) had autoimmune disease-related ILDs (89 RA-ILD, 39 SSc-ILD, 19 MCTD-ILD, 23 other). The baseline characteristics of patients taking (n=131) and not taking (n=39) DMARDs and/or glucocorticoids are shown in the Table. All but 1 patient taking glucocorticoids at baseline was taking <20 mg/day. The mean (SE) annual rate of decline in FVC in the placebo group was numerically greater in patients taking vs not taking DMARDs and/or glucocorticoids at baseline (Figure). The effect of nintedanib vs placebo on reducing the rate of decline in FVC was numerically more pronounced in patients taking vs not taking DMARDs and/or glucocorticoids at baseline, but the treatment-by-subgroup-by-time interaction p-values did not indicate heterogeneity in the effect of nintedanib between subgroups (Figure). In patients taking vs not taking DMARDs and/or corticosteroids at baseline, respectively, diarrhoea was reported in 59.4% and 77.8% of patients treated with nintedanib and 28.4% and 23.8% of patients treated with placebo. Serious AEs were more frequent in patients taking vs not taking DMARDs and/or glucocorticoids at baseline in both the nintedanib (39.1% vs 16.7%) and placebo (35.8% vs 19.0%) groups.

Conclusion:

In the INBUILD trial, the rate of FVC decline was numerically greater in placebo-treated patients who were taking DMARDs and/or glucocorticoids at baseline than in those who were not. The rate of FVC decline was slower in patients treated with nintedanib than placebo both in patients who were and were not taking DMARDs and/or glucocorticoids at baseline. Nintedanib had an acceptable safety profile both in patients who were and were not using DMARDs and/or glucocorticoids at baseline.

DMARDs and/or glucocorticoids at baselineYes (n=131)No (n=39)Male, %51.930.8FVC, mL, mean (SD)2372 (718)2188 (619)ILD diagnosis, %RA-ILD60.325.6SSc-ILD15.348.7MCTD-ILD10.712.8Other13.712.8Biologic DMARDs, %15.3–Non-biologic DMARDs, %46.6–Glucocorticoids, %87.8–

Disclosure of Interests:

Martin Aringer Consultant of: Boehringer Ingelheim, Roche, Speakers bureau: Boehringer Ingelheim, Roche, Janet Pope Grant/research support from: AbbVie, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Eli Lilly & Company, Merck, Roche, Seattle Genetics, UCB, Consultant of: AbbVie, Actelion, Amgen, Bayer, Boehringer Ingelheim, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Eicos Sciences, Eli Lilly & Company, Emerald, Gilead Sciences, Inc., Janssen, Merck, Novartis, Pfizer, Roche, Sandoz, Sanofi, UCB, Speakers bureau: UCB, Clive Kelly Consultant of: Boehringer Ingelheim, Speakers bureau: Boehringer Ingelheim, Anna-Maria Hoffmann-Vold Grant/research support from: Boehringer Ingelheim, Consultant of: Boehringer Ingelheim, Actelion, Bayer, GlaxoSmithKline, Speakers bureau: Boehringer Ingelheim, Actelion, Roche, John Belperio: None declared, Alexandra James Employee of: Employee of Boehringer Ingelheim, Carl Coeck Employee of: Employee of Boehringer Ingelheim, Manuel Quaresma Employee of: Employee of Boehringer Ingelheim, Eric Matteson Grant/research support from: Pfizer, Consultant of: Boehringer Ingelheim, Gilead, TympoBio, Arena Pharmaceuticals, Speakers bureau: Simply Speaking

Association between age, deprivation and specific comorbid conditions and the receipt of major surgery in patients with non-small cell lung cancer in England: A population-based study

INTRODUCTION

We investigated socioeconomic disparities and the role of the main prognostic factors in receiving major surgical treatment in patients with lung cancer in England.

METHODS

Our study comprised 31 351 patients diagnosed with non-small cell lung cancer in England in 2012. Data from the national population-based cancer registry were linked to Hospital Episode Statistics and National Lung Cancer Audit data to obtain information on stage, performance status and comorbidities, and to identify patients receiving major surgical treatment. To describe the association between prognostic factors and surgery, we performed two different analyses: one using multivariable logistic regression and one estimating cause-specific hazards for death and surgery. In both analyses, we used multiple imputation to deal with missing data.

RESULTS

We showed strong evidence that the comorbidities 'congestive heart failure', 'cerebrovascular disease' and 'chronic obstructive pulmonary disease' reduced the receipt of surgery in early stage patients. We also observed gender differences and substantial age differences in the receipt of surgery. Despite accounting for sex, age at diagnosis, comorbidities, stage at diagnosis, performance status and indication of having had a PET-CT scan, the socioeconomic differences persisted in both analyses: more deprived people had lower odds and lower rates of receiving surgery in early stage lung cancer.

DISCUSSION

Comorbidities play an important role in whether patients undergo surgery, but do not completely explain the socioeconomic difference observed in early stage patients. Future work investigating access to and distance from specialist hospitals, as well as patient perceptions and patient choice in receiving surgery, could help disentangle these persistent socioeconomic inequalities.

Life Tables for World-Wide Comparison of Relative Survival for Cancer (CONCORD Study)

Background

The CONCORD study compares population-based relative survival from cancer using data from cancer registries in five continents. To estimate relative survival, general mortality life tables are required. Available statistics are incomplete, so various approaches are used to construct complete life tables. This article outlines how the life tables were constructed for CONCORD; it compares life expectancy at birth between 101 populations covered by cancer registries in 31 countries and compares the impact of two approaches to the deployment of life tables in relative survival analysis.

Methods

The CONCORD approach, using specific mathematical methods, produced complete (single-year-of-age) life tables by sex, cancer registry area, calendar year (1990–1999) and race (only in the USA). In order to study the impact of different approaches, we compared relative survival in the USA using the US national life table, centered on the relevant census years, and the CONCORD approach. We estimated relative survival in each American participating cancer registry for patients diagnosed with breast (women), colorectal or prostate cancer during 1990–1994 and followed up to 1999.

Results

Average life expectancy at birth during 1990–1999 varied in CONCORD cancer registry areas from 64 to 78 years in males and from 71 to 84 years in females. It increased during the 1990s more in men than in women. In the USA, it was lower in blacks than in whites. Relative survival in American populations was lower with the CONCORD approach, which incorporates trends and geographic variation in background mortality, than with the USA census life tables.

Conclusions

International variation in background mortality by geographic area, calendar time, race, age and sex is wide. We suggest that in international comparisons of cancer relative survival, complete life tables that are specific for cancer registry area, calendar year and race should be used.

Persistent inequalities in 90-day colon cancer mortality: an English cohort study

BACKGROUND

Variation in colon cancer mortality occurring shortly after diagnosis is widely reported between socio-economic status (SES) groups: we investigated the role of different prognostic factors in explaining variation in 90-day mortality.

METHODS

National cancer registry data were linked with national clinical audit data and Hospital Episode Statistics records for 69 769 adults diagnosed with colon cancer in England between January 2010 and March 2013. By gender, logistic regression was used to estimate the effects of SES, age and stage at diagnosis, comorbidity and surgical treatment on probability of death within 90 days from diagnosis. Multiple imputations accounted for missing stage. We predicted conditional probabilities by prognostic factor patterns and estimated the effect of SES (deprivation) from the difference between deprivation-specific average predicted probabilities.

RESULTS

Ninety-day probability of death rose with increasing deprivation, even after accounting for the main prognostic factors. When setting the deprivation level to the least deprived group for all patients and keeping all other prognostic factors as observed, the differences between deprivation-specific averaged predicted probabilities of death were greatly reduced but persisted. Additional analysis suggested stage and treatment as potential contributors towards some of these inequalities.

CONCLUSIONS

Further examination of delayed diagnosis, access to treatment and post-operative care by deprivation group may provide additional insights into understanding deprivation disparities in mortality.

First Measurement of Transverse-Spin-Dependent Azimuthal Asymmetries in the Drell-Yan Process

The first measurement of transverse-spin-dependent azimuthal asymmetries in the pion-induced Drell-Yan (DY) process is reported. We use the CERN SPS 190  GeV/c π^{-} beam and a transversely polarized ammonia target. Three azimuthal asymmetries giving access to different transverse-momentum-dependent (TMD) parton distribution functions (PDFs) are extracted using dimuon events with invariant mass between 4.3  GeV/c^{2} and 8.5  GeV/c^{2}. Within the experimental uncertainties, the observed sign of the Sivers asymmetry is found to be consistent with the fundamental prediction of quantum chromodynamics (QCD) that the Sivers TMD PDFs extracted from DY have a sign opposite to the one extracted from semi-inclusive deep-inelastic scattering (SIDIS) data. We present two other asymmetries originating from the pion Boer-Mulders TMD PDFs convoluted with either the nucleon transversity or pretzelosity TMD PDFs. A recent COMPASS SIDIS measurement was obtained at a hard scale comparable to that of these DY results. This opens the way for possible tests of fundamental QCD universality predictions.

Autoimmune/inflammatory syndrome induced by adjuvants (Shoenfeld’s syndrome) – An update

Autoimmune/inflammatory syndrome induced by adjuvants (ASIA) has been widely described in many studies conducted thus far. The syndrome incorporates five immune-mediated conditions, all associated with previous exposure to various agents such as vaccines, silicone implants and several others. The emergence of ASIA syndrome is associated with individual genetic predisposition, for instance those carrying HLA-DRB1*01 or HLA-DRB4 and results from exposure to external or endogenous factors triggering autoimmunity. Such factors have been demonstrated as able to induce autoimmunity in both animal models and humans via a variety of proposed mechanisms. In recent years, physicians have become more aware of the existence of ASIA syndrome and the relationship between adjuvants exposure and autoimmunity and more cases are being reported. Accordingly, we have created a registry that includes at present more than 300 ASIA syndrome cases that have been reported by different physicians worldwide, describing various autoimmune conditions induced by diverse adjuvants.

In this review, we have summarized the updated literature on ASIA syndrome and the knowledge accumulated since 2013 in order to elucidate the association between the exposure to various adjuvant agents and its possible clinical manifestations. Furthermore, we especially referred to the relationship between ASIA syndrome and systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) and antiphospholipid syndrome (APS).

Influence of meteorological conditions on RSV infection in Portugal

Acute viral bronchiolitis is a common cause for infant hospital admissions. Of all etiological agents, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is commonly the most frequent. The present study assesses relationships between atmospheric factors and RSV infections in under 3-year-old patients admitted to the Inpatient Paediatric Service of Vila Real (North of Portugal). For this purpose, (1) clinical files of children admitted with a diagnosis of acute bronchiolitis from September 2005 to December 2015 (>10 years) were scrutinised and (2) local daily temperature/precipitation series, as well as six weather types controlling meteorological conditions in Portugal, were used. Fifty-five percent of all 770 admitted children were effectively infected with a given virus, whilst 48 % (367) were RSV+, i.e. 87 % of virus-infected children were RSV+. The bulk of incidence is verified in the first year of age (82 %, 302), slightly higher in males. RSV outbreaks are typically from December to March, but important inter-annual variability is found in both magnitude and shape. Although no clear connections were found between monthly temperatures/precipitation and RSV outbreaks apart from seasonality, a linkage to wintertime cold spells is apparent on a daily basis. Anomalously low minimum temperatures from the day of admittance back to 10 days before are observed. This relationship is supported by anomalously high occurrences of the E and AA weather types over the same period, which usually trigger dry and cold weather. These findings highlight some predictability in the RSV occurrences, revealing potential for modelling and risk assessments.