Analysis of a drinking epidemic model

Analysis and dynamical structure of glucose insulin glucagon system with Mittage-Leffler kernel for type I diabetes mellitus

In this paper, we propose a fractional-order mathematical model to explain the role of glucagon in maintaining the glucose level in the human body by using a generalised form of a fractal fractional operator. The existence, boundedness, and positivity of the results are constructed by fixed point theory and the Lipschitz condition for the biological feasibility of the system. Also, global stability analysis with Lyapunov's first derivative functions is treated. Numerical simulations for fractional-order systems are derived with the help of Lagrange interpolation under the Mittage-Leffler kernel. Results are derived for normal and type 1 diabetes at different initial conditions, which support the theoretical observations. These results play an important role in the glucose-insulin-glucagon system in the sense of a closed-loop design, which is helpful for the development of artificial pancreas to control diabetes in society.

Preventive control strategy on second wave of Covid-19 pandemic model incorporating lock-down effect

This study presents an optimal control strategy through a mathematical model of the Covid-19 outbreak without lock-down. The pandemic model analyses the lock-down effect without control strategy based on the current scenario of second wave data to control the rapid spread of the virus. The pandemic model has been discussed with respect to the basic reproduction number and stability analysis of disease-free and endemic equilibrium. A new optimal control problem with treatment is framed to minimize the vulnerable situation of the second wave. This system is applied to study the effects of vaccines and treatment controls. Numerical solutions and the graphical presentation of the results predict the fate of India’s second wave situation on account of the control strategy. Lastly, a comparative study with control and without control has been analysed for the exposed phase, infective phase, and recovery phase to understand the effectiveness of the controls. This model is used to estimate the total number of infected and active cases, deaths, and recoveries in order to control the disease using this system and studying the effects of vaccines and treatment controls.

Bifurcation Analysis of a Synthetic Drug Transmission Model with Two Time Delays

Synthetic drugs are taking the place of traditional drugs and have made headlines giving rise to serious social issues in many countries. In this work, a synthetic drug transmission model incorporating psychological addicts with two time delays is being developed. Local stability and exhibition of Hopf bifurcation are established analytically and numerically by taking the combinations of the two time delays as bifurcation parameters. The exhibition of Hopf bifurcation shows that it is burdensome to eradicate the synthetic drugs transmission in the population.

Modeling the Dynamics of Drug Spreading in China

Drug abuse remains one of the major public health issues at the global level. In this article, we propose a drug epidemic model with a complete addiction-rehabilitation-recovery process, which allows the initiation of new users under the influence of drug addicts undergoing treatment and hidden drug addicts. We first conduct qualitative analyses of the dynamical behaviors of the model, including the existence and positivity of the solutions, the basic reproduction number, global asymptotic stabilities of both the drug-free and the drug-persistent equilibria, as well as sensitivity analysis. Then we use the model to predict the drug epidemic in China during 2020-2030. Finally, we numerically simulate the potential impact of intervention strategies on different drug users. The results show that the drug epidemic will decrease significantly during 2020-2030, and the most effective intervention strategy to eliminate drug epidemics is to strengthen the investigation and rehabilitation admission of hidden drug users.

Role of imitation and limited rehabilitation capacity on the spread of drug abuse

Objectives

We formulate a mathematical model for the spread of drug abuse using non linear ordinary differential equations. The model seeks to investigate both peer influence and limited rehabilitation effects on the dynamics of drug abuse. Peer-influence is modelled through the mechanism of imitation and limited rehabilitation is described using a special treatment function. Center manifold theory is used to show that the model exhibits the phenomenon of backward bifurcation. Matlab has been used to carry out numerical simulations to support theoretical findings.

Results

The model analysis shows that the model has multiple equilibria. It has been shown that the classical \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$\mathcal {R}_a$$\end{document}Ra—threshold is not the key to control drug abuse within a population. In fact drug abuse problems may persist in the population even with subthreshold values of \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$\mathcal {R}_a$$\end{document}Ra. This was shown to result, in particular when, \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$\omega$$\end{document}ω, \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$\eta _1$$\end{document}η1 and \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$\eta _2$$\end{document}η2 are high enough such that \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$\omega >\omega ^*$$\end{document}ω>ω∗, \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$\eta _1>\eta ^*_1$$\end{document}η1>η1∗ and \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$\eta _2>\eta ^*_2$$\end{document}η2>η2∗. The results suggest the need for comprehensive and accessible substance abuse treatment services to curtail drug abuse.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s13104-018-3574-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

On the Role of Imitation on Adolescence Methamphetamine Abuse Dynamics

Adolescence methamphetamine use is an issue of considerable concern due to its correlation with later delinquency, divorce, unemployment and health problems. Understanding how adolescents initiate methamphetamine abuse is important in developing effective prevention programs. We formulate a mathematical model for the spread of methamphetamine abuse using nonlinear ordinary differential equations. It is assumed that susceptibles are recruited into methamphetamine use through imitation. An epidemic threshold value, [Formula: see text], termed the abuse reproduction number, is proposed and defined herein in the drug-using context. The model is shown to exhibit the phenomenon of backward bifurcation. This means that methamphetamine problems may persist in the population even if [Formula: see text] is less than one. Sensitivity analysis of [Formula: see text] was performed to determine the relative importance of different parameters in methamphetamine abuse initiation. The model is then fitted to data on methamphetamine users less than 20 years old reporting methamphetamine as their primary substance of abuse in the treatment centres of Cape Town and parameter values that give the best fit are chosen. Results show that the proportion of methamphetamine users less than 20 years old reporting methamphetamine as their primary substance of abuse will continue to decrease in Cape Town of South Africa. The results suggest that intervention programs targeted at reducing adolescence methamphetamine abuse, are positively impacting methamphetamine abuse.

Modelling Drug Abuse Epidemics in the Presence of Limited Rehabilitation Capacity

The abuse of drugs is now an epidemic globally whose control has been mainly through rehabilitation. The demand for drug abuse rehabilitation has not been matched with the available capacity resulting in limited placement of addicts into rehabilitation. In this paper, we model limited rehabilitation through the Hill function incorporated into a system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations. Not every member of the community is equally likely to embark on drug use, risk structure is included to help differentiate those more likely (high risk) to abuse drugs and those less likely (low risk) to abuse drugs. It is shown that the model has multiple equilibria, and using the centre manifold theory, the model exhibits the phenomenon of backward bifurcation whose implications to rehabilitation are discussed. Sensitivity analysis and numerical simulations are performed. The results show that saturation in rehabilitation will in the long run lead to the escalation of drug abuse. This means that limited access to rehabilitation has negative implications in the fight against drug abuse where rehabilitation is the main form of control. This suggests that increased access to rehabilitation is likely to lower the drug abuse epidemic.

The analysis of the SIRS alcoholism models with relapse on weighted networks

Two SIRS alcoholism models with relapse on networks with fixed and adaptive weight are introduced. The spread of alcoholism threshold [Formula: see text] is calculated by the next generation matrix method. For the model with fixed weight, we prove that when [Formula: see text] the alcohol free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable, then the drinking crowd gradually disappear. When [Formula: see text], the alcoholism equilibrium is global attractivity, then the density of alcoholics will remain in a stable value. For the model with adaptive weight, we only make some numerical simulations. We also give two effective strategies. Our results show that the treatment of recuperator for stopping relapsing and preventing the susceptible people to drink are two effective measures to eliminate alcoholism problem, and preventing the susceptible people to drink is more effective when the proportion of recuperator to accept treatment is equal to the proportion of susceptible people to refuse drinking alcohol.