Fragility of a multilayer network of intranational supply chains

Tracing spatiotemporal changes in agricultural and non-agricultural trade networks of India

The evolving international economic instability and international trade relationship demand a nation to move towards a self-reliant integrated system at a sub-national scale to address the growing human needs. Given India's role in the global trade network, it is critical to explore the underlying extensive complex trade network at the domestic scale. The potential advantages of complex interaction among the different commodities remain unexplored despite the known importance of trade networks in maintaining food security and industrial sustainability. Here we perform a comprehensive analysis of agricultural flows in contrast with non-agricultural commodities across Indian states. The spatio-temporal evolution of the networks from 2010-2018 was studied by evaluating topological network characteristics of consistent spatially disaggregated trade data. Our results show an increase in average annual trade value by 23.3% and 15.4% for agriculture and non-agriculture commodities, respectively, with no significant increase in connectivity observed in both networks. However, they depict contrasting behavior concerning the spatio-temporal changes, with non-agriculture trade becoming more dependent on production hubs and the agriculture trade progressing toward self-reliance, which signifies the evolution of the diversification in the existing agrarian trade network. Our findings could serve as an important element in deepening the knowledge of practical applications like resilience and recovery by devising design appropriate policy interventions for sustainable development.

Shock propagation from the Russia-Ukraine conflict on international multilayer food production network determines global food availability

Dependencies in the global food production network can lead to shortages in numerous regions, as demonstrated by the impacts of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on global food supplies. Here we reveal the losses of 125 food products after a localized shock to agricultural production in 192 countries and territories using a multilayer network model of trade (direct) and conversion of food products (indirect), thereby quantifying 10⁸ shock transmissions. We find that a complete agricultural production loss in Ukraine has heterogeneous impacts on other countries, causing relative losses of up to 89% in sunflower oil and 85% in maize via direct effects and up to 25% in poultry meat via indirect impacts. Whereas previous studies often treated products in isolation and did not account for product conversion during production, the present model considers the global propagation of local supply shocks along both production and trade relations, allowing for a comparison of different response strategies.

Cities can benefit from complex supply chains

Supply chain complexity is perceived to exacerbate the supply disruptions or shocks experienced by a city. Here, we calculate two network measures of supply chain complexity based on the relative number-horizontal complexity-and relative strength-vertical complexity-of a city's suppliers. Using a large dataset of more than 1 million annual supply flows to 69 major cities in the United States for 2012-2015, we show that a trade-off pattern between horizontal and vertical complexity tends to characterize the architecture of urban supply networks. This architecture shapes the resistance of cities to supply chain shocks. We find that a city experiences less intense shocks, on average, as supplier relative diversity (horizontal complexity) increases for more technologically sophisticated products, which may serve as a mechanism for buffering cities against supply chain shocks. These results could help cities anticipate and manage their supply chain risks.

Resilience-by-Design and Resilience-by-Intervention in supply chains for remote and indigenous communities

Indigenous and remote communities face difficulties in times of supply chain disruption. Here the authors comment on challenges faced by the Tribal Population of Noepe (Martha’s Vineyard) and argue for the inclusion of Resilience-by-Design and Resilience-by-Intervention in supply chain management.

Shock propagation channels behind the global economic contagion network. The role of economic sectors and the direction of trade

Examining the spread of macroeconomic phenomena between countries has become increasingly popular after the 2008 economic crisis, but the recent COVID-19 pandemic rendered this issue much more relevant as it shed more light on the risks arising from strongly interconnected economies. This paper intends to extend previous studies in this line by examining the relationship between trade openness and business cycle synchronization. It extends the scope of previous analyses in three areas. First, we use a Granger-causality approach to identify synchronization. Second, trade is broken down to the sector level and third, we distinguish between upstream and downstream connections. These developments allow for a directed approach in the analysis. We use conditional logit regressions to estimate the effect of trade openness on the probability of shock-transmission. The results presented in this study contribute to the literature in two ways. First, in addition to revealing a positive effect of aggregate two-way trade on shock-contagion, it also points out that this overall effect hides diverse behavior in specific trading sectors as well as upstream and downstream channels. Second, while some sectors are not significant channels of shock-transmission in either directions, upstream channels seem to be important in agriculture while downstream channels dominate machinery and other manufactures. Also, there are sectors (chemicals and related products) trade in which affects shock-transmission negatively.

The strength of domestic production networks: an economic application of the Finn cycling index

There has been an increasing interest in analyzing the structure of domestic and global supply chains/networks in the past decade. Concerns about potential (systemic) risks resulting from overdependence on global supply networks have been magnified during the lockdowns triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic in the last year. Strengthening local and/or domestic networks may be an adequate approach to overcome the severe economic implications of this overdependence, but it also rises the question of how one can measure the strength of domestic supply/production networks and design an appropriate structure. The objective of this paper is to propose a method for measurement and to provide a first-cut analysis with this method on a sample of economies. Building on ecological network analysis, we borrow the Finn cycling index from its toolbox and show a ranking of countries with respect to the strength of their domestic production networks based on this index. The results suggest that the countries are very heterogeneous both in terms of the level of cycling index and its sectoral decomposition. Using panel-econometric techniques, we point out the role of the openness and structural asymmetry in shaping this strength, also controlling for other macroeconomic characteristics of the economies. The estimates reveal that openness has a negative, while asymmetry has a positive effect on this index, but other country-specific characteristics also play a role in shaping the systemic operation of national economies as measured by the Finn cycling index.

Reimagining health preparedness in the aftermath of COVID-19

Efficiency is an essential part of sustainable healthcare, especially in emergency and acute care (including surgical) settings. Waste minimisation, streamlined processes, and lean principles are all important for responsible stewardship of finite health resources. However, the promotion of efficiency above all else has effectively subordinated preparedness as a form of waste. Investment in preparedness is an essential part of resilient healthcare. The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has exposed the gap between efficient processes and resilient systems in many health settings. In anticipation of future pandemics, natural disasters, and mass casualty incidents, health systems, and individual healthcare workers, must prioritise preparedness to be ready for the unexpected or for crises. This requires a reframing of priorities to view preparedness as crucial insurance against system failure during disasters, by taking advantage of lessons learnt preparing for war and mass casualty incidents.

Supply chain diversity buffers cities against food shocks

Food supply shocks are increasing worldwide^1,2, particularly the type of shock wherein food production or distribution loss in one location propagates through the food supply chain to other locations^3,4. Analogous to biodiversity buffering ecosystems against external shocks^5,6, ecological theory suggests that food supply chain diversity is crucial for managing the risk of food shock to human populations^7,8. Here we show that boosting a city's food supply chain diversity increases the resistance of a city to food shocks of mild to moderate severity by up to 15 per cent. We develop an intensity-duration-frequency model linking food shock risk to supply chain diversity. The empirical-statistical model is based on annual food inflow observations from all metropolitan areas in the USA during the years 2012 to 2015, years when most of the country experienced moderate to severe droughts. The model explains a city's resistance to food shocks of a given frequency, intensity and duration as a monotonically declining function of the city's food inflow supply chain's Shannon diversity. This model is simple, operationally useful and addresses any kind of hazard. Using this method, cities can improve their resistance to food supply shocks with policies that increase the food supply chain's diversity.