Prediction of 1-year outcome after complicated and uncomplicated myocardial infarction: Bayesian analysis of predischarge exercise test results in 300 patients

[Is the exercise test performed after myocardial infarct really useful in improving prognosis? Arguments in favor]

The evaluation of risk after myocardial infarction accomplishes two objectives: a) selecting patients with high-risk for coronary angiography and revascularization, and b) identifying low-risk patients to avoid unnecessary laboratory investigation and revascularization procedures. Currently, patients eligible for exercise test are those with no evidence of heart failure or angina, and with a preserved left ventricular function. Overall prognosis for such patients, especially if they were thrombolyzed, is very good. In this setting, in contrast to that pointed out in previous reports, the positive predictive value of exercise electrocardiography is very low (i.e., a patient with S-T depression has a probability of cardiac death in the ensuing year of only 4% vs 2% if the test is negative). This suggests that a routine postinfarction exercise test is inefficient from a prognostic point of view. However, a recent study has shown that thrombolyzed patients with a positive response to the exercise test, have a significantly lower rate of reinfarction and unstable angina when they undergo myocardial revascularization. Mortality rate, as it was low in the study population, was unchanged by the use of revascularization procedures. We conclude that, in spite of the limitations pointed out, there are at least two reasons to continue performing exercise tests in all uncomplicated infarctions: a) a negative test, due to its high negative predictive value for adverse events, reassures the patient and his family and prompts an early discharge, and b) some patients, despite an uncomplicated in-hospital evolution, have a "strong" positive response that suggests multivessel disease and a possible benefit from myocardial revascularization.

Methodologic sources of inconsistent prognoses for post-acute myocardial infarction

PURPOSE

To investigate basic methodologic problems that could explain inconsistent and contradictory results for predictor variables in studies of prognosis after myocardial infarction (MI).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Studies on postinfarct prognosis published in English between 1979 and 1991 were identified with a MEDLINE literature search. The key words used for the computer search were: "prognosis" and "myocardial infarction" in the title and "mortality" or "survival" or "outcome" in the title or abstract. Reference lists in the reports captured by the search were examined for pertinent articles, and additional articles were sought in the index pages of two prominent journals. To be included in the analysis, a study had to fulfill the following eligibility criteria: a cohort study or randomized, controlled trial; sample size > or = 50 patients; a clear identification of the time when follow-up began, after the acute phase of MI and either before or at hospital discharge; follow-up for a minimum of 6 months or median/mean of 1 year; and multivariable analysis for intervals no longer than 2 years after the MI. Eight methodologic standards addressing sources of major problems were established and applied to each study.

RESULTS

Of 766 reports identified, 111 fulfilled the eligibility criteria. The median number of standards fulfilled was 3, the highest 6. The proportions of studies complying with each of the 8 methodologic standards were: (1) inception cohort, 60%; (2) total death as an unequivocal outcome, 54%; (3) verification of cause-specific deaths (in 62 studies analyzing cardiac death), 37%; (4) analysis of crucial variables describing baseline severity, 13%; (5) indication of quantitative scope of the spectrum of baseline severity, 20%; (6) reproducible classification of candidate predictor variables, 40%; (7) adequate identification of quantitative importance of and boundaries for statistically significant predictor variables, 39%; and (8) evaluation of impact of treatment on predictor variables, 13%.

CONCLUSIONS

The results show that studies on postinfarct prognosis have frequently disregarded basic methodologic principles. Suitable adherence to these principles in future research will allow improved interpretation of results and can reduce inconsistent findings, while improving the applicability of the identified predictors.

Application of technetium-99m hexamethylpropylene amine oxime single-photon emission tomography to neurologic prognosis in patients undergoing urgent carotid surgery

In this study we aimed to work out a quantitative prognostic index for preoperative assessment of brain technetium-99m hexamethylpropylene amine oxime (HMPAO) single-photon emission tomography (SPET) in patients referred for urgent carotid endarterectomy due to acute obstructive disease of the internal carotid artery (ICA) and neurological deficit. To this end we compared data from preoperative SPET studies with the postinterventional changes in neurological status in 20 patients (17 males, three females; mean age 53 years, SD 4 years) with acute ischaemic cerebral disorders induced by obstruction of the ICA. Carotid obstruction was diagnosed by ultrasound B-mode study. All patients underwent urgent carotid endarterectomy from the ICA. Patients were divided into two groups in accordance with the results of postoperative follow-up: group A comprised patients with significant (more than 3 points) postoperative improvement in neurological condition as quantified by the Canadian Neurological Scale (11 patients); group B consisted of patients with minimal improvement or deterioration (nine, three of whom died). All patients were studied preoperatively by 99mTc-HMPAO SPET. The volume of nonperfused tissue (VS, cm3) was quantified using the Mountz technique. Hypoperfused volume (Vhypoperf, cm3) in the affected hemisphere was calculated as the total volume of voxels with 99mTc-HMPAO uptake < 90% of the contralateral symmetric voxels. Discriminant prognostic function was calculated by discriminant analysis as: PF = 0.072 x VS + 29.46x(VS/Vhypoperf). Patients with preoperative PF values < 8.20 demonstrated postoperative improvement in neurological status, while the group with PF > 8.90 comprised patients who demonstrated minimal improvement or deterioration. PF values in the range 8.20-8.90 carried an indefinite prognosis. We conclude that the preoperative 99mTc-HMPAO SPET can be used for the selection of patients in whom improvement in neurological status may be expected after urgent surgical correction of acute extracranial obstruction of the ICA.

Prognostic value of dipyridamole sestamibi single-photon emission computed tomography and dipyridamole stress echocardiography for new cardiac events after an uncomplicated myocardial infarction

A high-dose dipyridamole stress test (0.84 mg/kg in 6 minutes) with simultaneous sestamibi single-photon emission computed tomographic (SPECT) and echocardiographic imaging was performed in 89 patients before hospital discharge after an uncomplicated myocardial infarction. The aim of this study was to determine the prognostic value of these tests for new cardiac events and to compare the relative values of SPECT and echocardiography in a postinfarction dipyridamole stress test. Two years after infarction, nine patients (10%) had died, five patients (6%) had suffered a nonfatal reinfarction, and 14 patients (16%) had been readmitted to the hospital for a revascularization procedure. Cardiac death had occurred in 5 (10%) of 48 patients with a positive SPECT versus 4 (10%) of 41 with a negative SPECT (difference not significant) and in 6 (19%) of 31 with a positive echocardiogram versus 3 (5%) of 56 with a negative echocardiogram (p = 0.05). Cardiac death or reinfarction had occurred in 8 (17%) of 48 patients with a positive SPECT versus 6 (15%) of 41 with a negative SPECT (difference not significant) and in 6 (19%) of 31 with a positive echocardiogram versus 8 (14%) of 56 with a negative echocardiogram (difference not significant). Thus the predictive value of the dipyridamole stress test for new cardiac events after an uncomplicated myocardial infarction was limited, irrespective of the method used to detect ischemia. Reversible perfusion defects were identified more frequently than new wall motion abnormalities but did not predict late events. A positive dipyridamole echocardiogram was associated with a higher late mortality rate but did not predict other cardiac events.

Short and long term prognosis of acute myocardial infarction since introduction of thrombolysis

OBJECTIVE

To record prognosis and determinants of outcome in patients with acute myocardial infarction since thrombolysis was introduced.

DESIGN

Observational study.

SETTING

London district general hospital.

PATIENTS

608 consecutive patients admitted to the coronary care unit with acute myocardial infarction between 1 January 1988 and 31 December 1991.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

All cause mortality, non-fatal ischaemic events (myocardial infarction, unstable angina), and revascularisation.

RESULTS

Of the 608 patients, 89 (14.6%) died in hospital. 507 [corrected] patients were followed up after discharge from hospital. Mortality (95% confidence interval) at 30 days, one year, and three years was 16.0% (13.4% to 19.2%), 21.7% (18.6% to 25.2%), and 29.4% (25.3% to 33.9%) respectively. Event free survival (survival without a non-fatal ischaemic event) was 80.4% (77.0% to 83.4%) at 30 days, 66.8% (62.8% to 70.5%) at one year, and 56.1% (51.3% to 60.6%) at three years. Survival in patients treated with thrombolysis was considerably higher than in those not given thrombolysis (three year survival: 76.7% v 54.3%), although the incidence of non-fatal ischaemic events was the same in the two groups. Multivariate determinants of six month survival were left ventricular failure, treatment with thrombolysis and aspirin, smoking history, bundle branch block, and age. For patients who survived six months, age was the only factor related to long term survival.

CONCLUSIONS

Although patients treated by thrombolysis had a relatively good prognosis, long term mortality and the incidence of non-fatal recurrent ischaemic events remained high. Effective strategies for the identification and treatment of high risk patients need to be reassessed.

Risk stratification by early exercise testing after an episode of unstable coronary artery disease. The RISC Study Group

After stabilization of symptoms by medication a predischarge exercise test was performed in 855 men admitted with suspected unstable angina (54%) or non-Q-wave myocardial infarction (46%). Multiple logistic regression analysis demonstrated that the number of leads with ST-depression at exercise, low maximal work load, increasing age and ST-elevation in electrocardiogram at rest had independent prognostic value concerning the risk of myocardial infarction or death during the following year. Therefore a combination of extension of ST-depression and peak work load was used to define 'high and low risk response' at the exercise test. After 1 year the mortality in patients with 'high risk' compared to 'low risk' exercise response was 3.6% and 0% (P < 0.001) and the risk of either myocardial infarction or death was 15.4% and 3.9% (P < 0.0001), respectively. ST-depression, occurrence of angina and low peak load at exercise were independent predictors of future severe angina. After 1 year 29.5% of patients with any of these indicators at exercise had incapacitating symptoms that necessitated referral for coronary angiography compared to 4.8% in the group without these findings (P < 0.0001). The predictive value of the exercise test remained high in subgroups based on inclusion diagnosis, age or findings in electrocardiogram at rest and independently of treatment with beta-blockade, other antianginal medication or aspirin at the time of the exercise test.

Did prognosis after acute myocardial infarction change during the past 30 years? A meta-analysis

Much effort has been spent to improve survival after acute myocardial infarction. To investigate how effective this effort has been, a meta-analysis was performed of studies published between 1960 and 1987 concerning mortality after acute myocardial infarction. Thirty-six studies were analyzed. They were classified with respect to deaths in the hospital and at 1 month and the 5-year mortality rate starting at hospital discharge. Mortality was assessed from all studies by comparing studies from different institutions with use of identical inclusion criteria (externally controlled studies) and by analyzing studies reporting on changes in mortality in two or more comparable patient cohorts admitted to the same institution at different time periods (internally controlled studies). Reports on clinical trials (for example, thrombolytic therapy, beta-adrenergic blockade) in acute myocardial infarction were excluded. Average overall in-hospital mortality decreased from 29% during the 1960s to 21% during the 1970s and to 16% during the 1980s. The externally controlled studies also showed a declining trend: from 1960 to 1969, 32%, from 1970 to 1979, 19% and from 1980 to 1987, 15%. The 1-month overall mortality rate decreased from 31% during the 1960s to 25% during the 1970s and 18% during the 1980s externally controlled studies. Most internally controlled studies also showed significant improvement in in-hospital and 1-month survival. In contrast, 5-year mortality after hospital discharge did not significantly decrease (33% from 1960 to 1969 and 33% from 1970 to 1979). It is concluded that in the prethrombolytic era, short-term prognosis after acute myocardial infarction has improved since 1960.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Risk stratification in survivors of acute myocardial infarction: routine cardiac catheterization and angiography is a reasonable approach in most patients

Noninvasive risk assessment in survivors of AMI can effectively subdivide patients into groups with differing risk profiles after hospital discharge, but some patients at risk for late death or recurrent AMI may be incorrectly identified; data from cardiac catheterization and angiography provide complementary and generally more powerful prognostic information. Many patients may derive particular benefit from early cardiac catheterization and angiography, including: (1) patients with AMI complicated by recurrent myocardial ischemia, congestive heart failure, and/or complex ventricular arrhythmias; (2) patients with abnormal or inconclusive results of noninvasive testing or those patients unable to perform an exercise test; (3) patients with abnormal left ventricular global systolic function and those with increased left ventricular end-systolic volume; (4) "young" patients (younger than 50 years of age?); (5) older patients (older than 65 to 70 years of age?); (6) patients with non-Q wave AMI; and (7) patients who are receiving thrombolytic therapy. Performance of early cardiac catheterization and angiography in virtually all survivors of AMI, with selective use of appropriate noninvasive tests, may provide a more efficacious means of risk assessment after AMI; if all tests are performed judiciously, the cost of such an approach need not be excessive. A combination of invasive and selected noninvasive tests probably provides optimal information. The risks to the routine performance of diagnostic cardiac catheterization and angiography in all survivors of AMI are: (1) adequate care and attention may not be paid to proper performance of the procedure(s) and to detailed and proper analyses of the data; (2) the need for additional noninvasive testing in selected patients may be ignored; and most importantly, (3) premature or unnecessary revascularization procedures may be performed subsequently. For optimal patient care, the clinician must obtain all necessary data, avoid unnecessary and repetitive tests, know the accuracy of individual tests at his or her own facility, interpret all data in proper context, and then counsel patients objectively about available management strategies. With this approach, all patients who might appropriately benefit from coronary artery revascularization will be correctly identified, and patients who are truly at very low risk (minimal residual coronary artery disease and preserved left ventricular function particularly if associated with a patent infarct-related artery) may be similarly identified and managed appropriately with elimination of unnecessary additional testing and pharmacologic therapy. Finally, whatever approach to risk stratification one chooses for an individual patient, the importance of and the need to correct and/or ameliorate risk factors for coronary artery disease must be recognized and undertaken.

Medical costs of coronary artery disease in the United States

A model has been developed to determine the cost of coronary artery disease (CAD) based on the 5 primary events identified in the Framingham Study: acute myocardial infarction, angina pectoris, unstable angina pectoris, sudden death and nonsudden death. The costs for diagnostic and therapeutic service for patients with CAD were linked to medical decision algorithms outlining the diagnosis and management of patients with CAD. Because CAD is a changing illness not represented by a single event, the algorithm tracked patients for 5 years after the time of diagnosis, or until death, to develop average cost estimates. The estimated 5-year costs (in 1986 United States dollars) of the 5 CAD events were: acute myocardial infarction $51,211, angina pectoris $24,980, unstable angina pectoris $40,581, sudden death $9,078 and nonsudden death $19,697. The costs of major CAD surgical procedures were also calculated because of their impact on health care costs for patients with CAD. These include: coronary artery bypass surgery per case over 5 years $32,465, and angioplasty per case over 5 years $26,916. The high cost of CAD reflects the improved technology and more effective and expensive therapies now available.

Risk stratification in patients with first non-Q wave infarction: limited value of the early low level exercise test after uncomplicated infarcts. The Multicenter Post-Infarction Research Group

Risk stratification using clinical and historical variables plus early low level exercise testing was performed in 141 patients with a first non-Q wave myocardial infarction. The 111 patients who performed the exercise test had a 3.6% cardiac mortality rate in the first year compared with 13.3% in the 30 patients who could not exercise (p = 0.063), and a 1 year incidence rate of recurrent cardiac events (cardiac death or recurrent nonfatal myocardial infarction) of 10.8% compared with 23.3% (p = 0.127). Patients who developed ischemia (ST depression or angina) during the test had an increased incidence of cardiac events in the year after the infarction (odds ratio greater than 3, p less than 0.05). When patients were subgrouped by the presence or absence of pulmonary congestion, the discriminatory value of the exercise test was seen to reside primarily in the cohort with pulmonary congestion. For example, ST depression during exercise in this group identified patients with a 71% incidence of cardiac events in the year after the infarction compared with 5.3% for those without ST depression (odds ratio 45, p = 0.002). In the patients without pulmonary congestion, the exercise test had no discriminatory value. It is concluded that early low level exercise testing has a limited role after an uncomplicated non-Q wave infarction, but is useful in patients with clinical markers of higher risk.