Effects of fuel and forest conservation on future levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide

Enhanced clay formation key in sustaining the Middle Eocene Climatic Optimum

The Middle Eocene Climatic Optimum (around 40 million years ago) was a roughly 400,000-year-long global warming phase associated with an increase in atmospheric CO2 concentrations and deep-ocean acidification that interrupted the Eocene's long-term cooling trend. The unusually long duration, compared with early Eocene global warming phases, is puzzling as temperature-dependent silicate weathering should have provided a negative feedback, drawing down CO2 over this timescale. Here we investigate silicate weathering during this climate warming event by measuring lithium isotope ratios (reported as δ7Li), which are a tracer for silicate weathering processes, from a suite of open-ocean carbonate-rich sediments. We find a positive δ7Li excursion-the only one identified for a warming event so far -of ~3‰. Box model simulations support this signal to reflect a global shift from congruent weathering, with secondary mineral dissolution, to incongruent weathering, with secondary mineral formation. We surmise that, before the climatic optimum, there was considerable soil shielding of the continents. An increase in continental volcanism initiated the warming event, but it was sustained by an increase in clay formation, which sequestered carbonate-forming cations, short-circuiting the carbonate-silicate cycle. Clay mineral dynamics may play an important role in the carbon cycle for climatic events occurring over intermediate (i.e., 100,000 year) timeframes.

Permo-Triassic boundary carbon and mercury cycling linked to terrestrial ecosystem collapse

Records suggest that the Permo-Triassic mass extinction (PTME) involved one of the most severe terrestrial ecosystem collapses of the Phanerozoic. However, it has proved difficult to constrain the extent of the primary productivity loss on land, hindering our understanding of the effects on global biogeochemistry. We build a new biogeochemical model that couples the global Hg and C cycles to evaluate the distinct terrestrial contribution to atmosphere-ocean biogeochemistry separated from coeval volcanic fluxes. We show that the large short-lived Hg spike, and nadirs in δ²⁰²Hg and δ¹³C values at the marine PTME are best explained by a sudden, massive pulse of terrestrial biomass oxidation, while volcanism remains an adequate explanation for the longer-term geochemical changes. Our modelling shows that a massive collapse of terrestrial ecosystems linked to volcanism-driven environmental change triggered significant biogeochemical changes, and cascaded organic matter, nutrients, Hg and other organically-bound species into the marine system.

Constraints on the onset duration of the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum

The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM, approx. 56 Ma) provides a test case for investigating how the Earth system responds to rapid greenhouse gas-driven warming. However, current rates of carbon emissions are approximately 10 Pg C yr^-1, whereas those proposed for the PETM span orders of magnitude-from ≪1 Pg C yr^-1 to greater than the anthropogenic rate. Emissions rate estimates for the PETM are hampered by uncertainty over the total mass of PETM carbon released as well as the PETM onset duration. Here, I review constraints on the onset duration of the carbon isotope excursion (CIE) that is characteristic of the event with a focus on carbon cycle model-based attempts that forgo the need for a traditional sedimentary age model. I also review and compare existing PETM carbon input scenarios employing the Earth system model cGENIE and suggest another possibility-that abrupt input of an isotopically depleted carbon source combined with elevated volcanic outgassing over a longer interval can together account for key features of the PETM CIE.This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Hyperthermals: rapid and extreme global warming in our geological past'.

Middle Eocene greenhouse warming facilitated by diminished weathering feedback

The Middle Eocene Climatic Optimum (MECO) represents a ~500-kyr period of global warming ~40 million years ago and is associated with a rise in atmospheric CO2 concentrations, but the cause of this CO2 rise remains enigmatic. Here we show, based on osmium isotope ratios (187Os/188Os) of marine sediments and published records of the carbonate compensation depth (CCD), that the continental silicate weathering response to the inferred CO2 rise and warming was strongly diminished during the MECO-in contrast to expectations from the silicate weathering thermostat hypothesis. We surmise that global early and middle Eocene warmth gradually diminished the weatherability of continental rocks and hence the strength of the silicate weathering feedback, allowing for the prolonged accumulation of volcanic CO2 in the oceans and atmosphere during the MECO. These results are supported by carbon cycle modeling simulations, which highlight the fundamental importance of a variable weathering feedback strength in climate and carbon cycle interactions in Earth's history.

Carbon cycle implications of terrestrial weathering changes since the last glacial maximum

We examine the importance of the rock weathering feedback mechanism during the last deglacial period (∼16 000–4000 BCE) using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity (the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM)) with four box-model parameterizations of terrestrial weathering. The deglacial climate change is driven by changes in orbital parameters, ice core reconstructions of atmospheric CO2 variability, and prescribed removal of continental ice sheets. Over the course of the 12 000 year simulation period, increases in weathering provide a mechanism that slowly removes CO2 from the atmosphere, in opposition to the observed atmospheric CO2 increase during this period. These processes transfer both carbon and alkalinity to the ocean, the combination of which results in as much as a 1000 Pg C increase in total ocean carbon, relative to a control simulation with constant weathering. However, the rapid expansion of northern hemisphere vegetation introduces a significant uncertainty among the weathering parameterizations. Further experiments to test the individual impacts of weathering dissolved inorganic carbon and alkalinity fluxes on ocean biogeochemistry suggest that the worldwide distribution of rock types and the ratio of carbonate to silicate weathering may be crucially important in obtaining an accurate estimate of changes in global weathering rates.

Towards a quantitative understanding of the late Neoproterozoic carbon cycle

The cycles of carbon and oxygen at the Earth surface are intimately linked, where the burial of organic carbon into sediments represents a source of oxygen to the surface environment. This coupling is typically quantified through the isotope records of organic and inorganic carbon. Yet, the late Neoproterozoic Eon, the time when animals first evolved, experienced wild isotope fluctuations which do not conform to our normal understanding of the carbon cycle and carbon-oxygen coupling. We interpret these fluctuations with a new carbon cycle model and demonstrate that all of the main features of the carbonate and organic carbon isotope record can be explained by the release of methane hydrates from an anoxic dissolved organic carbon-rich ocean into an atmosphere containing oxygen levels considerably less than today.

The heartbeat of the Oligocene climate system

A 13-million-year continuous record of Oligocene climate from the equatorial Pacific reveals a pronounced "heartbeat" in the global carbon cycle and periodicity of glaciations. This heartbeat consists of 405,000-, 127,000-, and 96,000-year eccentricity cycles and 1.2-million-year obliquity cycles in periodically recurring glacial and carbon cycle events. That climate system response to intricate orbital variations suggests a fundamental interaction of the carbon cycle, solar forcing, and glacial events. Box modeling shows that the interaction of the carbon cycle and solar forcing modulates deep ocean acidity as well as the production and burial of global biomass. The pronounced 405,000-year eccentricity cycle is amplified by the long residence time of carbon in the oceans.

Optimal reductions in CO2 emissions

Current optimizing climate-economy models use CO2 uptake functions that greatly underestimate both peak atmospheric CO2 concentrations and the time horizon of elevated CO2. As a result these models underestimate potential global warming damages. Here, a more realistic, but practical, carbon cycle parameterization is developed that can be incorporated within an optimizing climate-economy model framework. This method is utilized in conjunction with the DICE model (Nordhaus, 1994) to estimate optimal reductions in CO2 emissions. The results are shown to be extremely sensitive to the pore rate of time preference, rho. For rho=3% (Nordhaus' preferred value), our model predicts an optimal CO2 emission reduction of 13% by the year 2045, as compared to 11% in the original DICE model. But, for rho=0% the optimal emissions reduction rises to 79% in the year 2045 and to 97% by the year 2200. We argue that energy policy should be guided by the rho=0% results for both economic and ethical reasons. A steady-state analysis performed using the DICE model supports the argument that large fractional reductions in CO2 emissions should be undertaken.