Statistical design and monitoring of the Carotene and Retinol Efficacy Trial (CARET)

Drugs for preventing lung cancer in healthy people

BACKGROUND

This is the second update of this Cochrane Review. Some studies have suggested a protective effect of antioxidant nutrients and higher dietary levels of fruits and vegetables on lung cancer.

OBJECTIVES

To determine whether vitamins and minerals and other potential agents, alone or in combination, reduce lung cancer incidence and lung cancer mortality in healthy populations.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched CENTRAL, MEDLINE and Embase from 1974 to May 2019 and screened references included in published studies and reviews.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) comparing vitamins or mineral supplements with placebo, administered to healthy people with the aim of preventing lung cancer.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Four review authors independently selected the trials to be included in the review, assessed their methodological quality and extracted data. For dichotomous outcomes we calculated risk ratios (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) and pooled results using the random-effects model. We assessed the risk of bias using Cochrane's 'Risk of bias' assessment tool and certainty of evidence using the GRADE approach.

MAIN RESULTS

In this update, we identified three new trials for a total of 12 studies. Six analysed vitamin A, three vitamin C, three combined vitamin D3 + calcium, four vitamin E combined with other products, one selenium supplements and nine studied combinations of two or more products. Four studies included only men and five only women. Vitamin A results in little to no difference in lung cancer incidence (RR 1.09, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.19; 5 RCTs, 212314 participants; high-certainty evidence) and lung cancer mortality (RR 1.06, 95% CI 0.81 to 1.38; 3 RCTs, 190118 participants; high-certainty evidence). But in smokers or asbestos workers vitamin A increases the risk of lung cancer incidence (RR 1.10, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.20; 3 RCTs, 43995 participants; high-certainty evidence), lung cancer mortality (RR 1.18, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.38; 2 RCTs, 29426 participants; high-certainty evidence) and all-cause mortality (RR 1.09, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.13; 2 RCTs, 32883 participants; high-certainty evidence). Vitamin A increases the risk of minor side effects, such as yellowing of the skin and minor gastrointestinal symptoms (high-certainty evidence). Vitamin C likely results in little to no difference in lung cancer incidence (RR 1.29, 95% CI 0.67 to 2.49; 2 RCTs, 14953 participants; moderate-certainty evidence). In women, vitamin C increases the risk of lung cancer incidence (RR 1.84, 95% CI 1.14 to 2.95; 1 RCT, 7627 participants; high-certainty evidence). In men, vitamin C results in little to no difference in mortality for lung cancer (RR 0.81, 95% CI 0.53 to 1.23; 1 RCT, 7326 participants; high-certainty evidence). Vitamin D + calcium may result in little to no difference in lung cancer incidence in postmenopausal women (RR 0.90, 95% CI 0.39 to 2.08; 3 RCTs, 37601 women; low-certainty evidence). Vitamin E results in little to no difference in lung cancer incidence (RR 1.01, 95% CI 0.90 to 1.14; 3 RCTs, 36841 participants; high-certainty evidence) or to lung cancer mortality (RR 0.96, 95% CI 0.77 to 1.18; 2 RCTs, 29214 participants; high-certainty evidence), but increases the risk of haemorrhagic strokes (hazard ratio (HR), 1.74, 95% CI 1.04 to 2.91; 1 RCT, 14641 participants; high-certainty evidence). Calcium results in little to no difference in lung cancer incidence in postmenopausal women (RR 0.65, 95% CI 0.13 to 3.18; 1 RCT, 733 participants) or in risk of renal calculi (RR 1.94, 95% CI 0.20 to 18.57; 1 RCT, 733 participants; low-certainty evidence). Selenium in men results in little to no difference in lung cancer incidence (RR 1.11, 95% CI 0.80 to 1.54; 1 RCT, 17448 participants; high-certainty evidence) and lung cancer mortality (RR 1.09, 95% CI 0.72 to 1.66; 1 RCT, 17448 participants; high-certainty evidence) and increases the risk for grade 1 to 2 dermatitis (RR 1.16, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.31; 1 RCT, 17448 participants; high-certainty evidence) and for alopecia (RR 1.28, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.53; 1 RCT, 17448 participants; high-certainty evidence). The combination of vitamins A, C, E + selenium + zinc results in little to no difference in lung cancer incidence (RR 0.64, 95% CI 0.28 to 1.48; 1 RCT, 12741 participants; high-certainty evidence).

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Well-designed RCTs have shown no beneficial effect of supplements for the prevention of lung cancer and lung cancer mortality in healthy people. Vitamin A supplements increase lung cancer incidence and mortality in smokers or persons exposed to asbestos. Vitamin C increases lung cancer incidence in women. Vitamin E increases the risk of haemorrhagic strokes.

Body mass index and prostate cancer risk in the Carotene and Retinol Efficacy Trial

The aim of this study was to investigate the association between BMI (kg/m) and prostate cancer risk. BMI is a modifiable lifestyle factor and may provide a unique opportunity for primary prevention of prostate cancer if a causal association exists. Data from 11 886 men from the Carotene and Retinol Efficacy Trial (CARET, 1985-1996 with active follow-up through 2005) comprising current and former heavy smokers were analyzed. CARET was a multicenter randomized, double-blind placebo-controlled chemoprevention trial testing daily supplementation of 30 mg β-carotene+25 000 IU retinyl palmitate for primary prevention of lung cancer. Prostate cancer was a secondary outcome. Nonaggressive disease was defined as Gleason less than 7 and stage I/II. Aggressive disease was primarily defined as at least Gleason 7 or stage III/IV, and secondarily by excluding Gleason 3+4 from the first definition. BMI was calculated from measured weight and height. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for cancer incidence between BMI categories. During follow-up, 883 men were diagnosed with prostate cancer. In the analysis of aggressive disease when Gleason 3+4 was excluded, men with a BMI of at least 35 kg/m had an increased rate of prostate cancer (HR: 1.80, 95% CI: 1.04-3.11, Ptrend=0.04) compared with men with BMI 18-24.9 kg/m. No other differences were seen in risk estimates for overall, nonaggressive or aggressive prostate cancer including all Gleason 7 cases, between BMI categories. Our results show an association between having a BMI of at least 35 kg/m and an increased risk of aggressive prostate cancer (not including Gleason 3+4 tumors), but do not support an association between BMI and risk of overall, aggressive disease including all Gleason 7, or nonaggressive prostate cancer within a population of current and former heavy smokers.

Body mass index and lung cancer risk: a pooled analysis based on nested case-control studies from four cohort studies

BACKGROUND

Obesity has been proposed as a potential protective factor against lung cancer. We examined the association between BMI and lung cancer risk in a pooled analysis based on nested case-control studies from four cohort studies.

METHODS

A case-control study was nested within four cohorts in USA, Europe, China and Singapore that included 4172 cases and 8471 control subjects. BMI at baseline was calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared (kg/m2), and classified into 4 categories: underweight (BMI < 18.5), normal weight (18.5 ≤ BMI < 25), overweight (25 ≤ BMI < 30) and obese (≥30). Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for BMI-lung cancer associations were estimated using unconditional logistic regression, adjusting for potential confounders.

RESULTS

Considering all participants, and using normal weight as the reference group, a decreased risk of lung cancer was observed for those who were overweight (OR 0.77, 95% CI: 0.68-0.86) and obese (OR 0.69, 95% CI: 0.59-0.82). In the stratified analysis by smoking status, the decreased risk for lung cancer was observed among current, former and never smokers (P for interaction 0.002). The adjusted ORs for overweight and obese groups were 0.79 (95% CI: 0.68-0.92) and 0.75 (95% CI: 0.60-0.93) for current smokers, 0.70 (95% CI: 0.53-0.93) and 0.55 (95% CI: 0.37-0.80) for former smokers, 0.77 (95% CI: 0.59-0.99), and 0.71 (95% CI: 0.44-1.14) for never smokers, respectively. While no statistically significant association was observed for underweight subjects who were current smokers (OR 1.24, 95% CI: 0.98-1.58), former smokers (OR 0.27, 95% CI: 0.12-0.61) and never smokers (OR 0.83, 95% CI: 0.5.-1.28).

CONCLUSION

The results of this study provide additional evidence that obesity is associated with a decreased risk of lung cancer. Further biological studies are needed to address this association.

Genome-wide association study identifies multiple susceptibility loci for pancreatic cancer

We performed a multistage genome-wide association study including 7,683 individuals with pancreatic cancer and 14,397 controls of European descent. Four new loci reached genome-wide significance: rs6971499 at 7q32.3 (LINC-PINT, per-allele odds ratio (OR) = 0.79, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.74-0.84, P = 3.0 × 10(-12)), rs7190458 at 16q23.1 (BCAR1/CTRB1/CTRB2, OR = 1.46, 95% CI 1.30-1.65, P = 1.1 × 10(-10)), rs9581943 at 13q12.2 (PDX1, OR = 1.15, 95% CI 1.10-1.20, P = 2.4 × 10(-9)) and rs16986825 at 22q12.1 (ZNRF3, OR = 1.18, 95% CI 1.12-1.25, P = 1.2 × 10(-8)). We identified an independent signal in exon 2 of TERT at the established region 5p15.33 (rs2736098, OR = 0.80, 95% CI 0.76-0.85, P = 9.8 × 10(-14)). We also identified a locus at 8q24.21 (rs1561927, P = 1.3 × 10(-7)) that approached genome-wide significance located 455 kb telomeric of PVT1. Our study identified multiple new susceptibility alleles for pancreatic cancer that are worthy of follow-up studies.

Anti-HE4 antibodies in infertile women and women with ovarian cancer

OBJECTIVES

To develop an assay for anti-HE4 antibodies and assess such antibodies in sera from women with increased epidemiologic risk for ovarian cancer (infertility) and patients with ovarian cancer in comparison to controls.

METHODS

An ELISA was developed to measure antibodies to recombinant full length HE4 and cut-off values were determined for different levels of specificity (up to 99%).

RESULTS

Infertile women more frequently had anti-HE4 antibodies than controls (23% at 98% specificity, p < 0.001) with antibodies most frequent in women with POF (31%) and ovulatory dysfunction (47%). There was also an increased frequency of anti-HE4 antibodies in patients with ovarian cancer (14% at 97% specificity, p < 0.01), but more women with certain types of infertility have anti-HE4 antibodies than women with ovarian cancer. Most patients with ovarian cancer have circulating HE4 antigen, which may interfere with detection of antibodies, while the level of HE4 antigen in sera from infertile women was not higher than in normal controls. There was a statistically significant correlation between antibodies to HE4 and antibodies to mesothelin in the same patients.

CONCLUSIONS

Women with certain types of infertility, which have increased risk to develop ovarian cancer, and women with ovarian cancer more frequently than controls have antibodies to HE4, a biomarker for ovarian cancer. The antibodies may reflect a tumor-promoting Th2 type of inflammation.

Hierarchical modeling identifies novel lung cancer susceptibility variants in inflammation pathways among 10,140 cases and 11,012 controls

Recent evidence suggests that inflammation plays a pivotal role in the development of lung cancer. In this study, we used a two-stage approach to investigate associations between genetic variants in inflammation pathways and lung cancer risk based on genome-wide association study (GWAS) data. A total of 7,650 sequence variants from 720 genes relevant to inflammation pathways were identified using keyword and pathway searches from Gene Cards and Gene Ontology databases. In Stage 1, six GWAS datasets from the International Lung Cancer Consortium were pooled (4,441 cases and 5,094 controls of European ancestry), and a hierarchical modeling (HM) approach was used to incorporate prior information for each of the variants into the analysis. The prior matrix was constructed using (1) role of genes in the inflammation and immune pathways; (2) physical properties of the variants including the location of the variants, their conservation scores and amino acid coding; (3) LD with other functional variants and (4) measures of heterogeneity across the studies. HM affected the priority ranking of variants particularly among those having low prior weights, imprecise estimates and/or heterogeneity across studies. In Stage 2, we used an independent NCI lung cancer GWAS study (5,699 cases and 5,818 controls) for in silico replication. We identified one novel variant at the level corrected for multiple comparisons (rs2741354 in EPHX2 at 8p21.1 with p value = 7.4 × 10(-6)), and confirmed the associations between TERT (rs2736100) and the HLA region and lung cancer risk. HM allows for prior knowledge such as from bioinformatic sources to be incorporated into the analysis systematically, and it represents a complementary analytical approach to the conventional GWAS analysis.

Drugs for preventing lung cancer in healthy people

BACKGROUND

This is an updated version of the original review published in Issue 2, 2003. Some studies have suggested a protective effect of antioxidant nutrients on lung cancer. Observational epidemiological studies suggest an association between higher dietary levels of fruits and vegetables containing beta-carotene and a lower risk of lung cancer.

OBJECTIVES

To determine whether vitamins, minerals and other potential agents, alone or in combination, reduce incidence and mortality from lung cancer in healthy people.

SEARCH METHODS

For this update we have used a search strategy adapted from the design in the original review. The following electronic databases have been searched up to December 2011: MEDLINE, EMBASE and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL). References included in published studies and reviews were also screened.

SELECTION CRITERIA

Included studies were randomised controlled clinical trials comparing different vitamins, mineral supplements or supplements with placebo, administered to healthy people with the aim of preventing lung cancer.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two authors independently selected the trials to be included in the review, assessed the methodological quality of each trial and extracted data using a standardised form. For each study, relative risk and 95% confidence limits were calculated for dichotomous outcomes and pooled results were calculated using the random-effect model.

MAIN RESULTS

In the first version of this review four studies were included; in this review update, an additional five studies have been included. Four studies included only males and two only females; two studies included only participants considered at high risk, namely smokers or exposed to asbestos, and one study included people deficient in many micronutrients. Six studies analysed vitamin A, three vitamin C, four vitamin E, one selenium supplements, and six studied combinations of two or more products. All the RCTs included in this review were classified as being of low risk of bias.For people not at high risk of lung cancer and compared to placebo, none of the supplements of vitamins or minerals or their combinations resulted in a statistically significant difference in lung cancer incidence or mortality, except for a single study that included 7627 women and found a higher risk of lung cancer incidence for those taking vitamin C but not for total cancer incidence, but that effect was not seen in males or when the results for males and females were pooled.For people at high risk of lung cancer, such as smokers and those exposed to asbestos and compared to placebo, beta-carotene intake showed a small but statistically significant higher risk of lung cancer incidence, lung cancer mortality and for all-causes mortality.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

There is no evidence for recommending supplements of vitamins A, C, E, selenium, either alone or in different combinations, for the prevention of lung cancer and lung cancer mortality in healthy people. There is some evidence that the use of beta-carotene supplements could be associated with a small increase in lung cancer incidence and mortality in smokers or persons exposed to asbestos.

Effects of incentive items on participation in a randomized chemoprevention trial

Behavioral research has an important role in increasing and maintaining participation in disease prevention trials, both in interventions and in follow-up visits. We conducted a randomized experiment among participants in the lung cancer chemoprevention trial, CARET (Carotene and Retinol Efficacy Trial) to test the effects of providing two incentives on retention. The items used for this study were a Certificate of Appreciation and one of two lapel pins, provided in a 2 2 design. Providing incentives, whether alone or in combination, had no statistically significant effect on retention by the two-year follow-up point. The successful implementation of this randomized incentive study has two implications for future research: (1) study of behavioral interventions and issues is feasible in the context of large controlled trials of disease end-points; and (2) such study is necessary to determine whether selected incentives can increase retention.

Antioxidant supplements for prevention of mortality in healthy participants and patients with various diseases

BACKGROUND

Our systematic review has demonstrated that antioxidant supplements may increase mortality. We have now updated this review.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the beneficial and harmful effects of antioxidant supplements for prevention of mortality in adults.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched The Cochrane Library, MEDLINE, EMBASE, LILACS, the Science Citation Index Expanded, and Conference Proceedings Citation Index-Science to February 2011. We scanned bibliographies of relevant publications and asked pharmaceutical companies for additional trials.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included all primary and secondary prevention randomised clinical trials on antioxidant supplements (beta-carotene, vitamin A, vitamin C, vitamin E, and selenium) versus placebo or no intervention.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Three authors extracted data. Random-effects and fixed-effect model meta-analyses were conducted. Risk of bias was considered in order to minimise the risk of systematic errors. Trial sequential analyses were conducted to minimise the risk of random errors. Random-effects model meta-regression analyses were performed to assess sources of intertrial heterogeneity.

MAIN RESULTS

Seventy-eight randomised trials with 296,707 participants were included. Fifty-six trials including 244,056 participants had low risk of bias. Twenty-six trials included 215,900 healthy participants. Fifty-two trials included 80,807 participants with various diseases in a stable phase. The mean age was 63 years (range 18 to 103 years). The mean proportion of women was 46%. Of the 78 trials, 46 used the parallel-group design, 30 the factorial design, and 2 the cross-over design. All antioxidants were administered orally, either alone or in combination with vitamins, minerals, or other interventions. The duration of supplementation varied from 28 days to 12 years (mean duration 3 years; median duration 2 years). Overall, the antioxidant supplements had no significant effect on mortality in a random-effects model meta-analysis (21,484 dead/183,749 (11.7%) versus 11,479 dead/112,958 (10.2%); 78 trials, relative risk (RR) 1.02, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.98 to 1.05) but significantly increased mortality in a fixed-effect model (RR 1.03, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.05). Heterogeneity was low with an I(2)- of 12%. In meta-regression analysis, the risk of bias and type of antioxidant supplement were the only significant predictors of intertrial heterogeneity. Meta-regression analysis did not find a significant difference in the estimated intervention effect in the primary prevention and the secondary prevention trials. In the 56 trials with a low risk of bias, the antioxidant supplements significantly increased mortality (18,833 dead/146,320 (12.9%) versus 10,320 dead/97,736 (10.6%); RR 1.04, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.07). This effect was confirmed by trial sequential analysis. Excluding factorial trials with potential confounding showed that 38 trials with low risk of bias demonstrated a significant increase in mortality (2822 dead/26,903 (10.5%) versus 2473 dead/26,052 (9.5%); RR 1.10, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.15). In trials with low risk of bias, beta-carotene (13,202 dead/96,003 (13.8%) versus 8556 dead/77,003 (11.1%); 26 trials, RR 1.05, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.09) and vitamin E (11,689 dead/97,523 (12.0%) versus 7561 dead/73,721 (10.3%); 46 trials, RR 1.03, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.05) significantly increased mortality, whereas vitamin A (3444 dead/24,596 (14.0%) versus 2249 dead/16,548 (13.6%); 12 trials, RR 1.07, 95% CI 0.97 to 1.18), vitamin C (3637 dead/36,659 (9.9%) versus 2717 dead/29,283 (9.3%); 29 trials, RR 1.02, 95% CI 0.98 to 1.07), and selenium (2670 dead/39,779 (6.7%) versus 1468 dead/22,961 (6.4%); 17 trials, RR 0.97, 95% CI 0.91 to 1.03) did not significantly affect mortality. In univariate meta-regression analysis, the dose of vitamin A was significantly associated with increased mortality (RR 1.0006, 95% CI 1.0002 to 1.001, P = 0.002).

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

We found no evidence to support antioxidant supplements for primary or secondary prevention. Beta-carotene and vitamin E seem to increase mortality, and so may higher doses of vitamin A. Antioxidant supplements need to be considered as medicinal products and should undergo sufficient evaluation before marketing.

Chromosome 15q24-25.1 variants, diet, and lung cancer susceptibility in cigarette smokers

BACKGROUND

Studying gene-environment interactions may provide insight about mechanisms underpinning the reported association between chromosome 15q24-25.1 variation and lung cancer susceptibility.

METHODS

In a nested case-control study comparing 746 lung cancer cases to 1,477 controls, all of whom were non-Hispanic white smokers in the β-Carotene and Retinol Efficacy Trial, we examined whether lung cancer risk is associated with single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) tagging the AGPHD1, CHRNA5, CHRNA3, and CHRNB4 genes and whether such risk is modified by diet and other characteristics. Intake of fruits and vegetables, their botanical groups, and specific nutrients were ascertained generally at baseline by food-frequency questionnaire.

RESULTS

Several sets of SNPs in high linkage disequilibrium were found: one set associated with a 27-34% increase and two sets associated with a 13-19% decrease in risk per minor allele. Associations were most prominent for the set including the non-synonymous SNP rs16969968. The rs16969968-lung cancer association did not differ by intake level of most dietary factors examined, but was stronger for individuals diagnosed at < 70 years of age or having a baseline smoking history of <40 cigarette pack-years.

CONCLUSIONS

Our data suggests that diet has little influence on the relation between chromosome 15q24-25.1 variation and lung cancer risk.

Assessment of lung-cancer mortality reduction from CT Screening

BACKGROUND

CT screening has been shown to increase lung cancer curability and we now assess the corresponding reduction in lung cancer mortality.

METHODS

Lung-cancer mortality in a cohort of 7995 smokers who underwent CT screening for lung cancer in New York State (NYS) was compared with two unscreened cohorts (CPS-II and CARET). The standardized mortality ratio (SMR) of observed to expected lung cancer deaths for NYS was jointly adjusted for age, sex, and smoking history. As more current NYS smokers might have quit as a result of the screening, thus reducing deaths from lung cancer, another analysis was restricted to those participants smoking at entry and still smoking 6 years later.

RESULTS

The SMR was 64/99.8=0.64 (P = 0.84 × 10⁻⁴) and 28/77.6=0.36 (P = 0.83 × 10⁻¹⁰), showing a significant reduction in deaths from lung cancer of 36% and 64% for CPS-II and CARET, respectively. Considering participants who were smoking at entry and still smoking 6 years later, the SMR using CPS-II rates was 29/49.1 = 0.59 (P = 0.001) and using CARET rates it was 21/57.4 = 0.37 (P = 0.31 × 10⁻⁷).

CONCLUSIONS

CT screening significantly reduces lung-cancer mortality.

Assessing lead time of selected ovarian cancer biomarkers: a nested case-control study

Background

CA125, human epididymis protein 4 (HE4), mesothelin, B7-H4, decoy receptor 3 (DcR3), and spondin-2 have been identified as potential ovarian cancer biomarkers. Except for CA125, their behavior in the prediagnostic period has not been evaluated.

Methods

Immunoassays were used to determine concentrations of CA125, HE4, mesothelin, B7-H4, DcR3, and spondin-2 proteins in prediagnostic serum specimens (1–11 samples per participant) that were contributed 0–18 years before ovarian cancer diagnosis from 34 patients with ovarian cancer (15 with advanced-stage serous carcinoma) and during a comparable time interval before the reference date from 70 matched control subjects who were participating in the Carotene and Retinol Efficacy Trial. Lowess curves were fit to biomarker levels in cancer patients and control subjects separately to summarize mean levels over time. Receiver operating characteristic curves were plotted, and area-under-the curve (AUC) statistics were computed to summarize the discrimination ability of these biomarkers by time before diagnosis.

Results

Smoothed mean concentrations of CA125, HE4, and mesothelin (but not of B7-H4, DcR3, and spondin-2) began to increase (visually) in cancer patients relative to control subjects approximately 3 years before diagnosis but reached detectable elevations only within the final year before diagnosis. In descriptive receiver operating characteristic analyses, the discriminatory power of these biomarkers was limited (AUC statistics range = 0.56–0.75) but showed increasing accuracy with time approaching diagnosis (eg, AUC statistics for CA125 were 0.57, 0.68, and 0.74 for ≥4, 2–4, and <2 years before diagnosis, respectively).

Conclusion

Serum concentrations of CA125, HE4, and mesothelin may provide evidence of ovarian cancer 3 years before clinical diagnosis, but the likely lead time associated with these markers appears to be less than 1 year.

Dietary supplement use and prostate cancer risk in the Carotene and Retinol Efficacy Trial

We investigated dietary supplement use and prostate cancer risk in the Carotene and Retinol Efficacy Trial (CARET). CARET was a randomized, double-blinded, placebo-controlled trial testing a daily dose of 30 mg beta-carotene + 25,000 IU retinyl palmitate for lung cancer prevention (1985-1996; active follow-up occurred through 2005). Secondary outcomes, including prostate cancer, were also assessed. Participants were queried about dietary supplements, health history, family history of cancer, smoking, and lifestyle habits. Cox proportional hazards regression estimated multivariate-adjusted relative risk [and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI)] of prostate cancer for dietary supplement users and nonusers with or without the high-dose CARET vitamins during the intervention and postintervention phases. After an average of 11 years of follow-up, 890 prostate cancer cases were reported. Neither the CARET nor other supplements were associated with total prostate cancer risk. For aggressive prostate cancer, men in the CARET intervention arm who used additional supplements had a relative risk for aggressive prostate cancer (Gleason >or=7 or stage III/IV) of 1.52 (95% CI, 1.03-2.24; P < 0.05), relative to all others. These associations disappeared in the postintervention period (0.75; 95% CI, 0.51-1.09). Conversely, there was no association of CARET + other supplements with nonaggressive disease, relative to all others. There was no effect modification by smoking or time on CARET intervention in any analyses. CARET only included smokers, so findings reported here may not apply to nonsmokers. Our results are consistent with other studies suggesting that dietary supplements may influence prostate cancer risk.

Antioxidant supplements for preventing gastrointestinal cancers

BACKGROUND

Oxidative stress may cause gastrointestinal cancers. The evidence on whether antioxidant supplements are effective in preventing gastrointestinal cancers is contradictory.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the beneficial and harmful effects of antioxidant supplements in preventing gastrointestinal cancers.

SEARCH STRATEGY

We identified trials through the trials registers of the four Cochrane Review Groups on gastrointestinal diseases, The Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials in The Cochrane Library (Issue 2, 2007), MEDLINE, EMBASE, LILACS, SCI-EXPANDED, and The Chinese Biomedical Database from inception to October 2007. We scanned reference lists and contacted pharmaceutical companies.

SELECTION CRITERIA

Randomised trials comparing antioxidant supplements to placebo/no intervention examining occurrence of gastrointestinal cancers.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two authors (GB and DN) independently selected trials for inclusion and extracted data. Outcome measures were gastrointestinal cancers, overall mortality, and adverse effects. Outcomes were reported as relative risks (RR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) based on random-effects and fixed-effect model meta-analysis. Meta-regression assessed the effect of covariates across the trials.

MAIN RESULTS

We identified 20 randomised trials (211,818 participants), assessing beta-carotene (12 trials), vitamin A (4 trials), vitamin C (8 trials), vitamin E (10 trials), and selenium (9 trials). Trials quality was generally high. Heterogeneity was low to moderate. Antioxidant supplements were without significant effects on gastrointestinal cancers (RR 0.94, 95% CI 0.83 to 1.06). However, there was significant heterogeneity (I(2) = 54.0%, P = 0.003). The heterogeneity may have been explained by bias risk (low-bias risk trials RR 1.04, 95% CI 0.96 to 1.13 compared to high-bias risk trials RR 0.59, 95% CI 0.43 to 0.80; test of interaction P < 0.0005), and type of antioxidant supplement (beta-carotene potentially increasing and selenium potentially decreasing cancer risk). The antioxidant supplements had no significant effects on mortality in a random-effects model meta-analysis (RR 1.02, 95% CI 0.97 to 1.07, I(2) = 53.5%), but significantly increased mortality in a fixed-effect model meta-analysis (RR 1.04, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.07). Beta-carotene in combination with vitamin A (RR 1.16, 95% CI 1.09 to 1.23) and vitamin E (RR 1.06, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.11) significantly increased mortality. Increased yellowing of the skin and belching were non-serious adverse effects of beta-carotene. In five trials (four with high risk of bias), selenium seemed to show significant beneficial effect on gastrointestinal cancer occurrence (RR 0.59, 95% CI 0.46 to 0.75, I(2) = 0%).

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

We could not find convincing evidence that antioxidant supplements prevent gastrointestinal cancers. On the contrary, antioxidant supplements seem to increase overall mortality. The potential cancer preventive effect of selenium should be tested in adequately conducted randomised trials.

Antioxidant supplements for prevention of mortality in healthy participants and patients with various diseases

BACKGROUND

Animal and physiological research as well as observational studies suggest that antioxidant supplements may improve survival.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the effect of antioxidant supplements on mortality in primary or secondary prevention randomised clinical trials.

SEARCH STRATEGY

We searched The Cochrane Library (Issue 3, 2005), MEDLINE (1966 to October 2005), EMBASE (1985 to October 2005), and the Science Citation Index Expanded (1945 to October 2005). We scanned bibliographies of relevant publications and wrote to pharmaceutical companies for additional trials.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included all primary and secondary prevention randomised clinical trials on antioxidant supplements (beta-carotene, vitamin A, vitamin C, vitamin E, and selenium) versus placebo or no intervention. Included participants were either healthy (primary prevention trials) or had any disease (secondary prevention trials).

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Three authors extracted data. Trials with adequate randomisation, blinding, and follow-up were classified as having a low risk of bias. Random-effects and fixed-effect meta-analyses were performed. Random-effects meta-regression analyses were performed to assess sources of intertrial heterogeneity.

MAIN RESULTS

Sixty-seven randomised trials with 232,550 participants were included. Forty-seven trials including 180,938 participants had low risk of bias. Twenty-one trials included 164,439 healthy participants. Forty-six trials included 68111 participants with various diseases (gastrointestinal, cardiovascular, neurological, ocular, dermatological, rheumatoid, renal, endocrinological, or unspecified). Overall, the antioxidant supplements had no significant effect on mortality in a random-effects meta-analysis (relative risk [RR] 1.02, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.99 to 1.06), but significantly increased mortality in a fixed-effect model (RR 1.04, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.06). In meta-regression analysis, the risk of bias and type of antioxidant supplement were the only significant predictors of intertrial heterogeneity. In the trials with a low risk of bias, the antioxidant supplements significantly increased mortality (RR 1.05, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.08). When the different antioxidants were assessed separately, analyses including trials with a low risk of bias and excluding selenium trials found significantly increased mortality by vitamin A (RR 1.16, 95% CI 1.10 to 1.24), beta-carotene (RR 1.07, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.11), and vitamin E (RR 1.04, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.07), but no significant detrimental effect of vitamin C (RR 1.06, 95% CI 0.94 to 1.20). Low-bias risk trials on selenium found no significant effect on mortality (RR 0.91, 95% CI 0.76 to 1.09).

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

We found no evidence to support antioxidant supplements for primary or secondary prevention. Vitamin A, beta-carotene, and vitamin E may increase mortality. Future randomised trials could evaluate the potential effects of vitamin C and selenium for primary and secondary prevention. Such trials should be closely monitored for potential harmful effects. Antioxidant supplements need to be considered medicinal products and should undergo sufficient evaluation before marketing.

Chemoprevention of lung cancers: lessons from CARET, the beta-carotene and retinol efficacy trial, and prospects for the future

The objective of this paper was to review the strategies for lung cancer chemoprevention. A retrospective assessment of the major findings from the most informative lung cancer chemoprevention clinical trials [alpha-tocopherol (vitamin E), beta-carotene trial and beta-carotene and retinol efficacy trial] was employed. Both trials and many others showed no benefit from what was once the prime candidate for lung cancer chemoprevention, beta-carotene. Furthermore, both trials found that beta-carotene, alone or in combination with vitamin E or retinyl palmitate, increased the incidence of lung cancers and the total and cardiovascular mortality rates. In conclusion, design, conduct, documentation, relationships with participants, and preparedness for unexpected findings are all important for chemoprevention research. Trials are necessary to test inferences from observational epidemiology and animal models. Multiple classes of promising agents are available for evaluation and for eventual randomized trials.

Changes in cholesterol and triglyceride concentrations in the Vanguard population of the Carotene and Retinol Efficacy Trial (CARET)

BACKGROUND

The Beta-Carotene and Retinol Efficacy Trial (CARET) was terminated 21 months ahead of schedule due to an excess of lung cancers. Deaths from cardiovascular disease also increased (relative risk=1.26 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.99-1.61)) in the group assigned to a combination of 30 mg beta-carotene and 25 000 IU retinyl palmitate (vitamin A) daily. The basis for increased cardiovascular mortality is unexplained.

DESIGN

We analyzed data on serum lipids, available for 1474 CARET Vanguard participants who were enrolled in the two CARET pilot studies and transitioned to the Vanguard study. Total cholesterol and triglycerides were measured 2 months prior to, 4 and 12 months following randomization, and annually thereafter for up to 7 y.

INTERVENTION

In the asbestos-exposed pilot (N = 816), participants were assigned to beta-carotene and retinol or to placebo; in the smokers pilot (N = 1029), participants were assigned to beta-carotene, retinol, a combination, or placebo.

RESULTS

Serum cholesterol showed a decline over time in both arms; serum triglycerides had a continuous decline over time in the placebo arm, but an initial increase that persisted in the active arm. Both serum cholesterol concentrations (P < 0.0003) and serum triglycerides (P < 0.0001) were significantly higher in the participants receiving vitamin A and/or a combination of vitamin A and beta-carotene (n = 863) as compared to the placebo group (n = 611). Those in this active intervention group had an average cholesterol concentration 5.3 mg/dl (0.137 mmol/l) higher than those in the placebo arm.

CONCLUSION

The differences in cholesterol and triglyceride concentrations between the groups following randomization may account in part for the unexpected excess in cardiovascular deaths seen in the active intervention arm of CARET.

Evidence for excess colorectal cancer incidence among asbestos-exposed men in the Beta-Carotene and Retinol Efficacy Trial

The relation between asbestos exposure and colorectal cancer remains controversial. The authors of this 1984-2004 US study examined the association among 3,897 occupationally exposed participants in the Beta-Carotene and Retinol Efficacy Trial (CARET) for chemoprevention of lung cancer, followed prospectively for 10-18 years. When a Cox stratified proportional hazards model was used, risks of colorectal cancer were elevated among male heavy smokers exposed to asbestos. Their relative risk was 1.36 (95% confidence interval: 0.96, 1.93) when compared with that for CARET heavy smokers not exposed to asbestos, after adjusting for age, smoking history, and intervention arm. The presence of asbestos-induced pleural plaques at baseline was associated with a relative risk of 1.54 (95% confidence interval: 0.99, 2.40); colorectal cancer risk also increased with worsening pulmonary asbestosis (p = 0.03 for trend). A dose-response trend based on years of asbestos exposure was less evident. Nonetheless, these data suggest that colorectal cancer risk is elevated among men occupationally exposed to asbestos, especially those with evidence of nonmalignant asbestos-associated radiographic changes.

Screening tests for hepatocellular carcinoma

The incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is rising throughout the world. HCC meets the criteria for which a disease benefits from screening or surveillance: it is an important health problem; those with cirrhosis are the targets for surveillance; there is acceptable treatment if diagnosed early; surveillance using alpha-fetoprotein and ultrasound has been shown to be cost effective; surveillance is widely implemented by health care professionals and accepted by patients; standardized recall procedures exists; and the screening tests must achieve an acceptable level of accuracy in the population undergoing screening. The latter point is the main limitation of surveillance for HCC. In this review we will discuss the currently available tests for the surveillance of HCC.

Interlaboratory reliability of microimmunofluorescence test for measurement of Chlamydia pneumoniae-specific immunoglobulin A and G antibody titers

To evaluate the reliability of Chlamydia pneumoniae-specific immunoglobulin G (IgG) and IgA antibody titers as measured by the microimmunofluorescence (MIF) test, we compared results from 392 individuals using a standard MIF protocol at two academic laboratories. The kappas for dichotomous titers (>/=16 versus <16) were 0.39 for IgA and 0.53 for IgG. Measurement error likely attenuates C. pneumoniae-disease associations; the magnitude of attenuation can be estimated from results of studies such as this one.

The Beta-Carotene and Retinol Efficacy Trial: incidence of lung cancer and cardiovascular disease mortality during 6-year follow-up after stopping beta-carotene and retinol supplements

BACKGROUND

The Beta-Carotene and Retinol Efficacy Trial (CARET) tested the effect of daily beta-carotene (30 mg) and retinyl palmitate (25,000 IU) on the incidence of lung cancer, other cancers, and death in 18,314 participants who were at high risk for lung cancer because of a history of smoking or asbestos exposure. CARET was stopped ahead of schedule in January 1996 because participants who were randomly assigned to receive the active intervention were found to have a 28% increase in incidence of lung cancer, a 17% increase in incidence of death and a higher rate of cardiovascular disease mortality compared with participants in the placebo group.

METHODS

After the intervention ended, CARET participants returned the study vitamins to their study center and provided a final blood sample. They continue to be followed annually by telephone and mail self-report. Self-reported cancer endpoints were confirmed by review of pathology reports, and death endpoints were confirmed by review of death certificates. All statistical tests were two-sided.

RESULTS

With follow-up through December 31, 2001, the post-intervention relative risks of lung cancer and all-cause mortality for the active intervention group compared with the placebo group were 1.12 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.97 to 1.31) and 1.08 (95% CI = 0.99 to 1.17), respectively. Smoothed relative risk curves for lung cancer incidence and all-cause mortality indicated that relative risks remained above 1.0 throughout the post-intervention follow-up. By contrast, the relative risk of cardiovascular disease mortality decreased rapidly to 1.0 after the intervention was stopped. During the post-intervention phase, females had larger relative risks of lung cancer mortality (1.33 versus 1.14; P = .36), cardiovascular disease mortality (1.44 versus 0.93; P = .03), and all-cause mortality (1.37 versus 0.98; P = .001) than males.

CONCLUSIONS

The previously reported adverse effects of beta-carotene and retinyl palmitate on lung cancer incidence and all-cause mortality in cigarette smokers and individuals with occupational exposure to asbestos persisted after drug administration was stopped although they are no longer statistically significant. Planned subgroup analyses suggest that the excess risks of lung cancer were restricted primarily to females, and cardiovascular disease mortality primarily to females and to former smokers.

Physical Activity in Relation to All-Site and Lung Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Current and Former Smokers

Increased physical activity has been associated with a reduction in the incidence and mortality from all-site cancer and some site-specific cancers in samples of primarily nonsmoking individuals; however, little is known about whether physical activity is associated with similar risk reductions among smokers and ex-smokers. This study examined physical activity in relation to all-site cancer and lung cancer incidence and mortality in a sample of current and former smokers (n = 7,045; 59% male; 95% Caucasian; mean age, 63 years) drawn from the β-Carotene and Retinol Efficacy Trial, a lung cancer chemoprevention trial. Hazard rate ratios and 95% confidence intervals associated with a 1 SD increase in physical activity were 0.86 (0.80-0.94) for all-site cancer only among men, 0.84 (0.69-1.03) for lung cancer only for younger participants, 0.75 (0.59-0.94) for cancer mortality among younger participants and 0.68 (0.53-0.89) among women, and 0.69 (0.53-0.90) for lung cancer mortality only among women. These results suggest that incidence may be more attenuated by physical activity for men and mortality more attenuated for women. Effects may be more pronounced for younger people and may differ inconsistently by pack-years of smoking. Physical activity may play a role in reducing cancer risk and mortality among those with significant tobacco exposure. Prospective studies using more sophisticated measures of physical activity assessed at multiple time points during follow-up are needed to corroborate these associations.

Newer markers for hepatocellular carcinoma

The incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is increasing worldwide; the overall survival of patients with HCC is grim because most patients are diagnosed late, when curative treatment is not possible. Cirrhosis is the strongest risk factor for the development of HCC. HCC surveillance with alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and ultrasonography has been recommended for persons with cirrhosis. However, AFP level is insensitive for the early detection of HCC, and ultrasonography is expensive and operator dependent. Clearly, there is a need for novel strategies for the early detection of HCC. The ideal biomarker assay for HCC would be sensitive, specific, noninvasive, reproducible, inexpensive, and acceptable to patients. The Early Detection Research Network of the National Cancer Institute has proposed 5 phases for biomarker validation: preclinical exploratory studies, clinical assay development for disease, retrospective longitudinal study to detect preclinical disease, prospective screening study, and cancer control studies. Several biomarkers, such as des-gamma carboxyprothrombin, lens culinaris agglutinin-reactive AFP, human hepatocyte growth factor, and insulin-like growth factor-1, are promising, but none of these markers has been validated for clinical use. Limitations of the current literature include inadequate sample size, heterogeneity in biomarker assay methods and result reporting, limited analysis of demographics and cause of liver disease as covariates in the expression of these markers, and a scarcity of longitudinal studies evaluating the ability of biomarkers to detect preclinical disease. There is an urgent need for novel biomarkers for the detection of early HCC; the National Cancer Institute proposal provides a framework for future validation studies.

Antioxidant supplements for preventing gastrointestinal cancers

BACKGROUND

Oxidative stress may cause gastrointestinal cancers. The evidence on whether antioxidant supplements are effective in preventing gastrointestinal cancers is contradictory.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the beneficial and harmful effects of antioxidant supplements in preventing gastrointestinal cancers.

SEARCH STRATEGY

We identified trials through the trials registers of the four Cochrane Review Groups on gastrointestinal diseases, The Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials on The Cochrane Library (Issue 1, 2003), MEDLINE, EMBASE, LILACS, and SCI-EXPANDED from inception to February 2003, and The Chinese Biomedical Database (March 2003). We scanned reference lists and contacted pharmaceutical companies.

SELECTION CRITERIA

Randomised trials comparing antioxidant supplements to placebo/no intervention examining the incidence of gastrointestinal cancers.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two reviewers independently selected trials for inclusion and extracted data. The outcome measures were incidence of gastrointestinal cancers, overall mortality, and adverse events. Outcomes were reported as relative risks (RR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) based on fixed and random effects meta-analyses.

MAIN RESULTS

We identified 14 randomised trials (170,525 participants), assessing beta-carotene (9 trials), vitamin A (4 trials), vitamin C (4 trials), vitamin E (5 trials), and selenium (6 trials). Trial quality was generally high. Heterogeneity was low to moderate. Neither the fixed effect (RR 0.96, 95% CI 0.88 to 1.04) nor random effects meta-analyses (RR 0.90, 95% CI 0.77 to 1.05) showed significant effects of supplementation with antioxidants on the incidences of gastrointestinal cancers. Among the seven high-quality trials reporting on mortality (131,727 participants), the fixed effect (RR 1.06, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.10) unlike the random effects meta-analysis (RR 1.06, 95% CI 0.98 to 1.15) showed that antioxidant supplements significantly increased mortality. Two low-quality trials (32,302 participants) found no significant effect of antioxidant supplementation on mortality. The difference between the mortality estimates in high- and low-quality trials was significant by test of interaction (z = 2.10, P = 0.04). Beta-carotene and vitamin A (RR 1.29, 95% CI 1.14 to 1.45) and beta-carotene and vitamin E (RR 1.10, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.20) significantly increased mortality, while beta-carotene alone only tended to do so (RR 1.05, 95% CI 0.99 to 1.11). Increased yellowing of the skin and belching were non-serious adverse effects of beta-carotene. In four trials (three with unclear/inadequate methodology), selenium showed significant beneficial effect on gastrointestinal cancer incidences.

REVIEWERS' CONCLUSIONS

We could not find evidence that antioxidant supplements prevent gastrointestinal cancers. On the contrary, they seem to increase overall mortality. The potential cancer preventive effect of selenium should be studied in adequately conducted randomised trials.

Chlamydia pneumoniae Infection and Risk of Lung Cancer

Infection with Chlamydia pneumoniae may be associated with an increased risk of lung cancer. We conducted a matched case-control study (508 pairs) nested within a large prospective study to investigate whether IgA antibody titers to C. pneumoniae measured by the microimmunofluorescence test are associated with lung cancer risk after controlling for confounders. Individuals with antibody titers ≥16 had 1.2 times the risk of lung cancer (95% confidence interval, 0.9-1.6) compared to those with lower titers. There was a significant trend (P = 0.007) of increasing odds ratios with increasing IgA titers primarily due to an odds ratio of 2.8 (95% confidence interval, 1.1-6.7) associated with titers ≥256. Lung cancer risk associated with IgA titers ≥16 was stronger among former smokers. To better understand predictors of IgA seropositivity, we also examined demographic, lifestyle, dietary, and medical correlates of IgA titers ≥16 among controls. Those with race not classified as White or Black were more likely to have IgA titers ≥16; there were no significant differences in seropositivity by smoking behaviors. In summary, the adjusted odds ratio for lung cancer associated with IgA titers ≥16 was compatible with a weakly positive association, although nondifferential measurement error of antibody titers may have resulted in a conservative bias. Future studies using precise measures of chronic C. pneumoniae status are needed to better determine the role of this organism in the etiology of lung cancer.

Stopping the active intervention: CARET

The Carotene and Retinol Efficacy Trial (CARET) was a large, multicenter randomized chemoprevention trial designed to test a combined lung cancer prevention agent in heavy smokers and workers exposed to asbestos. In January 1996, the CARET Steering Committee decided to stop the intervention due to an adverse effect. This paper describes the decision process used to apply the stopping rules and the activities engaged in by CARET participants and staff to implement the decision. The most important activity was to draft and mail a letter to the participants informing them of the disappointing CARET results and asking them to stop taking the study vitamins and to return any unused study vitamins. The steering committee, with the support of the National Cancer Institute, planned to follow participants for disease endpoints and smoking behavior for 5 years. These activities led to smooth closure of active intervention and maintained high retention rates during the transition.

Drugs for preventing lung cancer in healthy people

BACKGROUND

Some studies have suggested a protective effect of antioxidant nutrients on lung cancer. Observational epidemiological studies suggest an association between higher dietary levels of fruits and vegetables containing beta carotene and a lower risk of lung cancer.

OBJECTIVES

To determine whether vitamins, minerals and other potential agents, alone or in combination, reduce incidence and mortality from lung cancer in healthy people.

SEARCH STRATEGY

The electronic databases MEDLINE (1966-july 2001), EMBASE (1974-july 2001) and the Cochrane Controlled Trial Register (CENTRAL, Issue 3/2001) and bibliographies were searched. In addition authors of included studies were contacted to identify potentially eligible published and unpublished trials.

SELECTION CRITERIA

Included studies were randomised controlled clinical trials comparing different supplements or comparing supplements with placebo, administered to healthy people with the aim of preventing lung cancer.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Three reviewers independently selected the trials to be included in the review and assessed the methodological quality of each trial, and two extracted data using a standardised form. For each study, relative risk and 95% confidence limits were calculated for dichotomous outcomes.

MAIN RESULTS

Four studies were eligible for inclusion. All were population based trials, including a total of 109,394 participants. Two studies included smokers, one included workers exposed to asbestos and two studies were carried out in health professionals. A group of participants with no known risk factors for lung cancer was included in the study sample of two trials. Beta-carotene was evaluated in all trials, alone or combination with alpha-tocopherol or retinol, and one study tested alpha-tocopherol alone. Duration of treatment varied from 2 to 12 years and follow-up was from two to five years. All trials had a placebo group. For people with risk factors for lung cancer no reduction in lung cancer incidence or mortality was found in those taking vitamins alone compared with placebo (incidence of lung cancer: RR 0.98, 95% CI 0.81-1.19; lung cancer mortality: RR 0.93, 95% CI 0.73-1.19). For people with no known risk factors of lung cancer, none of the vitamins or their combinations appeared to have any effect. Combined data from three studies showed a non-statistically significant increased risk of lung cancer incidence (RR 1.11, 95% CI 0.94-1.33) and mortality (RR 1.05, 95% CI 0.87-1.28) for beta-carotene alone at pharmacological doses in groups with risk factors for lung cancer. When beta-carotene was combined with retinol, data from a single study showed that there was a statistically significant, increased risk of lung cancer incidence (RR 1.42, 95% CI 1.13-1.80) and mortality (RR 1.75, 95% CI 1.29-2.38) in people with risk factors for lung cancer who took both vitamins compared with those who took placebo. Data from also from one study showed that the combination of beta-carotene with alpha-tocopherol in people with risk factors for lung cancer was associated with a non-statistically significant increased risk of lung cancer incidence (RR 1.16, 95% CI 0.96-1.39) and mortality (RR 1.15, 95% CI 0.91-1.45). No effect was observed for total cancer incidence, mortality or all-cause mortality.

REVIEWER'S CONCLUSIONS

There is currently no evidence to support recommending vitamins such as alpha-tocopherol, beta-carotene or retinol, alone or in combination, to prevent lung cancer. A harmful effect was found for beta-carotene with retinol at pharmacological doses in people with risk factors for lung cancer (smoking and/or occupational exposure to asbestos). More research from larger trials and with longer follow-up is needed to analyse the effectiveness of other supplements.

DNA banking for epidemiologic studies: a review of current practices

To study genetic risk factors for common diseases, researchers have begun collecting DNA specimens in large epidemiologic studies and surveys. However, little information is available to guide researchers in selecting the most appropriate specimens. In an effort to gather the best information for the selection of specimens for these studies, we convened a meeting of scientists engaged in DNA banking for large epidemiologic studies. In this discussion, we review the information presented at that meeting in the context of recent published information. Factors to be considered in choosing the appropriate specimens for epidemiologic studies include quality and quantity of DNA, convenience of collection and storage, cost, and ability to accommodate future needs for genotyping. We focus on four types of specimens that are stored in these banks: (1) whole blood preserved as dried blood spots; (2) whole blood from which genomic DNA is isolated, (3) immortalized lymphocytes from whole blood or separated lymphocytes, prepared immediately or subsequent to cryopreservation; and (4) buccal epithelial cells. Each of the specimens discussed is useful for epidemiologic studies according to specific needs, which we enumerate in our conclusions.

Designing cancer prevention trials: a stochastic model approach

There is growing interest in the design and implementation of cancer prevention trials. The key idea is to have agents which interfere with carcinogenesis and/or the preclinical stage. In this article we develop multi-stage stochastic models for the planning of cancer prevention trials. For known inputs it is possible to calculate the incidence of disease for the control and intervention groups. Consequently we find designs that balance the required sample size and follow-up time while guaranteeing prespecified error probabilities. Moreover such models can incorporate the mode of action of the intervention as well as compliance. The model has been applied to breast cancer to determine the implications for planning breast cancer intervention trials. Although the model addresses issues in cancer prevention, it is quite general and may be suitable for other chronic diseases.

Incorporating the time dimension in receiver operating characteristic curves: a case study of prostate cancer

Early diagnosis of disease has potential to reduce morbidity and mortality. Biomarkers may be useful for detecting disease at early stages before it becomes clinically apparent. Prostate-specific antigen (PSA) is one such marker for prostate cancer. This article is concerned with modeling receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves associated with biomarkers at various times prior to the time at which the disease is detected clinically, by two methods. The first models the biomarkers statistically using mixed-effects regression models, and uses parameter estimates from these models to estimate the time-specific ROC curves. The second directly models the ROC curves as a function of time prior to diagnosis and may be implemented using software packages with binary regression or generalized linear model routines. The approaches are applied to data from 71 prostate cancer cases and 71 controls who participated in a lung cancer prevention trial. Two biomarkers for prostate cancer were considered: total serum PSA and the ratio of free to total PSA. Not surprisingly, both markers performed better as the interval between PSA measurement and clinical diagnosis decreased. Although the two markers performed similarly eight years prior to diagnosis, it appears that total PSA performed better than the ratio measure at times closer to diagnosis. The area under the ROC curve was consistently greater for total PSA than for the ratio four and two years prior to diagnosis and at the time of diagnosis.

Antioxidant potentials of vitamin A and carotenoids and their relevance to heart disease

Despite being one of the first vitamins to be discovered, the full range of biological activities for vitamin A remains to be defined. Structurally similar to vitamin A, carotenoids are a group of nearly 600 compounds. Only about 50 of these have provitamin A activity. Recent evidence has shown vitamin A, carotenoids and provitamin A carotenoids can be effective antioxidants for inhibiting the development of heart disease. Vitamin A must be obtained from the diet: green and yellow vegetables, dairy products, fruits and organ meats are some of the richest sources. Within the body, vitamin A can be found as retinol, retinal and retinoic acid. Because all of these forms are toxic at high concentrations, they are bound to proteins in the extracellular fluids and inside cells. Vitamin A is stored primarily as long chain fatty esters and as provitamin carotenoids in the liver, kidney and adipose tissue. The antioxidant activity of vitamin A and carotenoids is conferred by the hydrophobic chain of polyene units that can quench singlet oxygen , neutralize thiyl radicals and combine with and stabilize peroxyl radicals. In general, the longer the polyene chain, the greater the peroxyl radical stabilizing ability. Because of their structures, vitamin A and carotenoids can autoxidize when O2 tension increases, and thus are most effective antioxidants at low oxygen tensions that are typical of physiological levels found in tissues. Overall, the epidemiological evidence suggests that vitamin A and carotenoids are important dietary factors for reducing the incidence of heart disease. Although there is considerable discrepancy in the results from studies in humans regarding this relationship, carefully controlled experimental studies continue to indicate that these compounds are effective for mitigating and defending against many forms of cardiovascular disease. More work, especially concerning the relevance of how tissue concentrations, rather than plasma levels, relate to the progression of tissue damage in heart disease is required. This review assembles information regarding the basic structure and metabolism of vitamin A and carotenoids as related to their antioxidant activities. Epidemiological, intervention trials and experimental evidence about the effectiveness of vitamin A and carotenoids for reducing cardiovascular disease is also reviewed.

Chemoprevention of lung cancer: the rise and demise of beta-carotene

Beta-carotene and retinoids were the most promising agents against common cancers when the National Cancer Institute mounted a substantial program of population-based trials in the early 1980s. Both major lung cancer chemoprevention trials not only showed no benefit, but had significant increases in lung cancer incidence and in cardiovascular and total mortality. A new generation of laboratory research has been stimulated. Rational public health recommendations at this time include: 1. Five-A-Day servings of fruits and vegetables, a doubling of current mean intake; 2. systematic investigation of the covariates of extremes of fruit and vegetable intake; 3. discouragement of beta-carotene supplement use, due to adverse effects in smokers and no evidence of benefit in non-smokers; 4. multilevel research to develop and evaluate candidate chemoprevention agents to prevent lung and other common cancers; and 5. continued priority for smoking prevention, smoking cessation, and avoidance of known carcinogens in the environment.

Mailing strategies and costs of recruiting heavy smokers in CARET, a large chemoprevention trial

Recruitment costs represent a major portion of the budget for large clinical trials during the initial years of the study. Further, the rate of recruitment affects allocation of resources in future years. To learn about the costs and yields of recruiting from different populations and under different mailing strategies, we monitored recruitment yields of eligible heavy smokers for the Carotene and Retinol Efficacy Trial (CARET) at the Portland Study Center. Yields from the mailings, measured by response rate, percent of potential participants randomized, and related costs per randomization varied both by mailing strategy and by population targeted. Yield and cost varied significantly across population sources. Less variation was observed among various mailing strategies. Tracking the recruitment process yield provided useful information that allowed us to adjust recruitment approaches and achieve our randomization goals quickly and economically.

Effects of a combination of beta carotene and vitamin A on lung cancer and cardiovascular disease

BACKGROUND

Lung cancer and cardiovascular disease are major causes of death in the United States. It has been proposed that carotenoids and retinoids are agents that may prevent these disorders.

METHODS

We conducted a multicenter, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled primary prevention trial -- the Beta Carotene and Retinol Efficacy Trial -- involving a total of 18,314 smokers, former smokers, and workers exposed to asbestos. The effects of a combination of 30 mg of beta carotene per day and 25,000 IU of retinol (vitamin A) in the form of retinyl palmitate per day on the primary end point, the incidence of lung cancer, were compared with those of placebo.

RESULTS

A total of 388 new cases of lung cancer were diagnosed during the 73,135 person-years of follow-up (mean length of follow-up, 4.0 years). The active-treatment group had a relative risk of lung cancer of 1.28 (95 percent confidence interval, 1.04 to 1.57; P=0.02), as compared with the placebo group. There were no statistically significant differences in the risks of other types of cancer. In the active-treatment group, the relative risk of death from any cause was 1.17 (95 percent confidence interval, 1.03 to 1.33); of death from lung cancer, 1.46 (95 percent confidence interval, 1.07 to 2.00); and of death from cardiovascular disease, 1.26 (95 percent confidence interval, 0.99 to 1.61). On the basis of these findings, the randomized trial was stopped 21 months earlier than planned; follow-up will continue for another 5 years.

CONCLUSIONS

After an average of four years of supplementation, the combination of beta carotene and vitamin A had no benefit and may have had an adverse effect on the incidence of lung cancer and on the risk of death from lung cancer, cardiovascular disease, and any cause in smokers and workers exposed to asbestos.

Design of the Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial (PCPT)

The PCPT is a chemoprevention trial of finasteride with a primary endpoint of biopsy-proven presence or absence of prostate cancer. A total of 18,000 healthy men, aged 55 years and older, will be randomized. Half will receive finasteride (5 mg/day) and half will receive placebo (one matching tablet per day) for 7 years. The trial is designed to have 92% power to detect a 25% reduction in period prevalence of biopsy-proven disease using a two-sided test with alpha = 0.05. The trial is complicated by the known impact of finasteride on the major screening test for prostate cancer, prostate specific antigen (PSA). This paper describes the PCPT design with reference to alternatives that were considered. The chosen design depends on five critical assumptions that must be monitored closely throughout the 9-year trial.

Chemoprevention of lung cancer

Treatment of lung cancer remains frustrating. Most patients with lung cancer are not candidates for curative therapy, and new therapies have not made a substantial impact on survival. Consequently, some clinical investigators have focused their efforts on developing prevention strategies. Chemoprevention, the administration of agents to block or reverse carcinogenesis, is being investigated in ongoing trials. Studies of chemoprevention in lung cancer have included trials to reverse premalignant lesions such as sputum atypia or squamous metaplasia of the bronchial epithelium. Clinical trials of lung cancer prevention have often studied groups of participants with tobacco or asbestos exposure. Other clinical trials are being conducted among patients who have been treated for an early-stage lung cancer. As the result of diffuse epithelial injury, these patients are at very high risk for developing second primary tumors, predominantly in the lungs and upper aerodigestive tract. It is our hope that these studies may establish a new strategy for preventing lung cancer.

The effect of vitamin E and beta carotene on the incidence of lung cancer and other cancers in male smokers

BACKGROUND

Epidemiologic evidence indicates that diets high in carotenoid-rich fruits and vegetables, as well as high serum levels of vitamin E (alpha-tocopherol) and beta carotene, are associated with a reduced risk of lung cancer.

METHODS

We performed a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled primary-prevention trial to determine whether daily supplementation with alpha-tocopherol, beta carotene, or both would reduce the incidence of lung cancer and other cancers. A total of 29,133 male smokers 50 to 69 years of age from southwestern Finland were randomly assigned to one of four regimens: alpha-tocopherol (50 mg per day) alone, beta carotene (20 mg per day) alone, both alpha-tocopherol and beta carotene, or placebo. Follow-up continued for five to eight years.

RESULTS

Among the 876 new cases of lung cancer diagnosed during the trial, no reduction in incidence was observed among the men who received alpha-tocopherol (change in incidence as compared with those who did not, -2 percent; 95 percent confidence interval, -14 to 12 percent). Unexpectedly, we observed a higher incidence of lung cancer among the men who received beta carotene than among those who did not (change in incidence, 18 percent; 95 percent confidence interval, 3 to 36 percent). We found no evidence of an interaction between alpha-tocopherol and beta carotene with respect to the incidence of lung cancer. Fewer cases of prostate cancer were diagnosed among those who received alpha-tocopherol than among those who did not. Beta carotene had little or no effect on the incidence of cancer other than lung cancer. Alpha-tocopherol had no apparent effect on total mortality, although more deaths from hemorrhagic stroke were observed among the men who received this supplement than among those who did not. Total mortality was 8 percent higher (95 percent confidence interval, 1 to 16 percent) among the participants who received beta carotene than among those who did not, primarily because there were more deaths from lung cancer and ischemic heart disease.

CONCLUSIONS

We found no reduction in the incidence of lung cancer among male smokers after five to eight years of dietary supplementation with alpha-tocopherol or beta carotene. In fact, this trial raises the possibility that these supplements may actually have harmful as well as beneficial effects.

Chemoprevention of cancer

Chemoprevention is a strategy used to block the development of cancers in human beings. This emerging field has broad potential for influencing cancer incidence rates in defined high-risk groups and the general population. In this review, we define some of the mechanisms of carcinogenesis, describe some of the genetic markers of carcinogenesis, and list possible biomarkers that may serve as surrogate end points in chemoprevention studies. A major component of this review is a description of the agents that are currently under investigation in animal systems or in human trials. They are grouped according to the agents that block or suppress mutation, such as oltipraz, selenium, vitamin C and the flavones, or according to agents that block promotion and proliferation, such as difluoromethylornithine, tamoxifen, nonsteroidal antiinflammatory drugs, and the vitamin A derivatives. We describe the issues that are considered in the design of chemoprevention trials and in the phase I, II, and III components of these trials. The following national trials are discussed: the Breast Cancer Prevention Trial, which uses tamoxifen; the Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial, which uses finasteride; and a Lung Cancer Prevention Trial, which uses 13-cis-retinoic acid. The review ends with some insights about future studies in chemoprevention.

The alpha-tocopherol, beta-carotene lung cancer prevention study: design, methods, participant characteristics, and compliance. The ATBC Cancer Prevention Study Group

The Alpha-Tocopherol, Beta-Carotene (ATBC) Lung Cancer Prevention Study was a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, 2 x 2 factorial design, primary prevention trial testing the hypothesis that alpha-tocopherol (50 mg/day) and beta-carotene (20 mg/day) supplements reduce the incidence of lung cancer and possibly other cancers. Total and disease-specific mortality and incidence of various diseases and symptoms were monitored for safety. Between 1985 and 1993, 29,133 eligible male smokers aged 50 to 69 years at entry were randomized to receive daily active supplements or placebo capsules for 5 to 8 years (median 6.1 years), accumulating 169,751 follow-up years. This report describes the study design, methods, and protocol as well as the baseline characteristics and capsule compliance of the participants. The ATBC Study is the largest lung cancer chemoprevention trial conducted to date.