Development and validation of a logistic regression-derived algorithm for estimating the incremental probability of coronary artery disease before and after exercise testing

The predictive value of patient-reported outcomes on the impact of breast cancer treatment-related quality of life

Purpose

Patient-reported outcomes (PROs) have been widely used to measure breast cancer (BC) treatment outcomes. However, evidence is still limited on using routinely PROs to personalize treatment decision-making, including or not chemotherapy, targeted therapy, and radiotherapy. Using patient baseline PRO scores, we aimed to use PROs before treatment initiation to predict improvement or decline in health-related quality of life (HRQoL) due to treatment that they receive.

Methods

In two French cancer sites, women with non-metastatic BC completed the EORTC QLQ-C30 and QLQ-BR23 and BREAST-Q questionnaires to assess their PROs at baseline and again at 6 months. The outcome measured was post-operative change in PROs with minimal important difference for QLQ-C30 domains. We performed multivariate ordinal logistic regression to estimate the incremental probability of post-operative PRO improvements and deteriorations depending upon treatment options and baseline HRQoL.

Results

One hundred twenty-seven women completed questionnaires. Chemotherapy had significant negative impacts on Global health status (GHS) and on physical and social functioning. Chemotherapy and radiotherapy increased patient fatigue scores after adjusting for clinical factors (p< 0.01 and p< 0.05, respectively). The incremental probability of GHS deteriorations for chemotherapy was +0.3, +0.5, and +0.34 for patients with baseline GHS scores of 40, 70, and 100, respectively. This showed that different pre-treatment PROs might predict differential effects of chemotherapy on women change in HRQoL.

Conclusion

Patients with different baseline PRO scores may experience dissimilar impacts from BC treatments on post-operative PROs in terms of improvements and deteriorations. Oncologists might decide to adapt the treatment option based on a given level of the negative impact. Future studies should concentrate on incorporating this information into routine clinical decision-making strategies to optimize the treatment benefit for patients.

Evaluation of a Probability-Based Predictive Tool on Pathologist Agreement Using Urinary Bladder as a Pilot Tissue

Simple Summary

There is a common joke in pathology—put three pathologists in a room and you will obtain three different answers. This saying comes from the fact that pathology can be subjective; pathologists’ diagnoses can be influenced by many different biases, and pathologists are also influenced by the presence or absence of animal information and medical history. Compared to pathology, statistics is a much more objective field. This study aimed to develop a probability-based tool using statistics obtained by analyzing 338 histopathology slides of canine and feline urinary bladders, then see if the tool affected agreement between the test pathologists. Four pathologists diagnosed 25 canine and feline bladder slides and they conducted this three times: without animal and clinical information, then with this information, and finally using the probability tool. Results showed large differences in the pathologists’ interpretation of bladder slides, with kappa agreement values (low value for digital slide images, high value for glass slides) of 7–37% without any animal or clinical information, 23–37% with animal signalment and history, and 31–42% when our probability tool was used. This study provides a starting point for the use of probability-based tools in standardizing pathologist agreement in veterinary pathology.

Abstract

Inter-pathologist variation is widely recognized across human and veterinary pathology and is often compounded by missing animal or clinical information on pathology submission forms. Variation in pathologist threshold levels of resident inflammatory cells in the tissue of interest can further decrease inter-pathologist agreement. This study applied a predictive modeling tool to bladder histology slides that were assessed by four pathologists: first without animal and clinical information, then with this information, and finally using the predictive tool. All three assessments were performed twice, using digital whole-slide images (WSI) and then glass slides. Results showed marked variation in pathologists’ interpretation of bladder slides, with kappa agreement values of 7–37% without any animal or clinical information, 23–37% with animal signalment and history, and 31–42% when our predictive tool was applied, for digital WSI and glass slides. The concurrence of test pathologists to the reference diagnosis was 60% overall. This study provides a starting point for the use of predictive modeling in standardizing pathologist agreement in veterinary pathology. It also highlights the importance of high-quality whole-slide imaging to limit the effect of digitization on inter-pathologist agreement and the benefit of continued standardization of tissue assessment in veterinary pathology.

Artificial neural network-based model enhances risk stratification and reduces non-invasive cardiac stress imaging compared to Diamond-Forrester and Morise risk assessment models: A prospective study

BACKGROUND

Coronary artery disease (CAD) accounts for more than half of all cardiovascular events. Stress testing remains the cornerstone for non-invasive assessment of patients with possible or known CAD. Clinical utilization reviews show that most patients presenting for evaluation of stable CAD by stress testing are categorized as low risk prior to the test. Attempts to enhance risk stratification of individuals who are sent for stress testing seem to be more in need today. The present study compares artificial neural networks (ANN)-based prediction models to the other risk models being used in practice (the Diamond-Forrester and the Morise models).

METHODS

In our study, we prospectively recruited patients who were 19 years of age or older, and were being evaluated for coronary artery disease with imaging-based stress tests. For ANN, the network architecture employed a systematic method, where the number of neurons is changed incrementally, and bootstrapping was performed to evaluate the accuracy of the models.

RESULTS

We prospectively enrolled 486 patients. The mean age of patients undergoing stress test was 55.2 ± 11.2 years, 35% were women, and 12% had a positive stress test for ischemic heart disease. When compared to Diamond-Forrester and Morise risk models, the ANN model for predicting ischemia provided higher discriminatory power (DP)(1.61), had a negative predictive value of 98%, Sensitivity 91% [81%-97%], Specificity 65% [60%-79%], positive predictive value 26%, and a potential 59% reduction of non-invasive imaging.

CONCLUSION

The ANN models improved risk stratification when compared to the other risk scores (Diamond-Forrester and Morise) with a 98% negative predictive value and a significant potential reduction in non-invasive imaging tests.

Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis or Diagnosis (TRIPOD): explanation and elaboration

The TRIPOD (Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis) Statement includes a 22-item checklist, which aims to improve the reporting of studies developing, validating, or updating a prediction model, whether for diagnostic or prognostic purposes. The TRIPOD Statement aims to improve the transparency of the reporting of a prediction model study regardless of the study methods used. This explanation and elaboration document describes the rationale; clarifies the meaning of each item; and discusses why transparent reporting is important, with a view to assessing risk of bias and clinical usefulness of the prediction model. Each checklist item of the TRIPOD Statement is explained in detail and accompanied by published examples of good reporting. The document also provides a valuable reference of issues to consider when designing, conducting, and analyzing prediction model studies. To aid the editorial process and help peer reviewers and, ultimately, readers and systematic reviewers of prediction model studies, it is recommended that authors include a completed checklist in their submission. The TRIPOD checklist can also be downloaded from www.tripod-statement.org.

VALUE OF SPECIFIC PARAMETERS AND INTEGRATIVE INDICES OF TREADMILL TEST FOR THE ASSESSMENT OF CORONARY STENOSIS SEVERITY

Aim.To assess the value of specific parameters and integrated indices (II; such as Duke Index (DI), Centre for Preventive Medicine Index (CPMI), and modified CPMI) of the treadmill test in the diagnostics of coronary stenosis severity among patients with stable coronary heart disease (CHD).

Material and methods.The study included all patients (260 permanent residents of Moscow City or Moscow Region) who were admitted to the State Research Centre for Preventive Medicine with the CHD diagnosis and who underwent coronary angiography (CAG) and treadmill test in the period between January 1st 2004 and December 31st 2007.

Results.There were statistically significant associations between the main treadmill test parameters and the severity of coronary artery (CA) atherosclerosis. The larger number of stenosis-affected CA was associated with a higher prevalence of chest pain and treadmill tests with positive results and ST segment depression >1 mm, as well as with a decreased total duration of treadmill test. Similarly, the increased risk, as assessed by treadmill test indices (DI, CPMI, and modified CPMI), was linked to an increased number of stenosis-affected CA. Modified CPMI demonstrated the highest diagnostic value for the assessment of coronary atherosclerosis severity.

Conclusion.The treadmill test parameters which demonstrated their diagnostic value for the assessment of CHD severity included the following: positive test results, retrosternal chest pain as the reason for test discontinuation, ST segment depression >1mm, and short total duration of the test. Overall, all II demonstrated their high value in CHD diagnostics. Modified CPMI was the most effective II in the assessment of CA atherosclerosis severity. 

A risk score for predicting coronary artery disease in women with angina pectoris and abnormal stress test finding

Women with angina pectoris and abnormal stress test findings commonly have no epicardial coronary artery disease (CAD) at catheterization. The aim of the present study was to develop a risk score to predict obstructive CAD in such patients. Data were analyzed from 337 consecutive women with angina pectoris and abnormal stress test findings who underwent cardiac catheterization at our center from 2003 to 2007. Forward selection multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to identify the independent predictors of CAD, defined by ≥50% diameter stenosis in ≥1 epicardial coronary artery. The independent predictors included age ≥55 years (odds ratio 2.3, 95% confidence interval 1.3 to 4.0), body mass index <30 kg/m(2) (odds ratio 1.9, 95% confidence interval 1.1 to 3.1), smoking (odds ratio 2.6, 95% confidence interval 1.4 to 4.8), low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (odds ratio 2.9, 95% confidence interval 1.5 to 5.5), family history of premature CAD (odds ratio 2.4, 95% confidence interval 1.0 to 5.7), lateral abnormality on stress imaging (odds ratio 2.8, 95% confidence interval 1.5 to 5.5), and exercise capacity <5 metabolic equivalents (odds ratio 2.4, 95% confidence interval 1.1 to 5.6). Assigning each variable 1 point summed to constitute a risk score, a graded association between the score and prevalent CAD (ptrend <0.001). The risk score demonstrated good discrimination with a cross-validated c-statistic of 0.745 (95% confidence interval 0.70 to 0.79), and an optimized cutpoint of a score of ≤2 included 62% of the subjects and had a negative predictive value of 80%. In conclusion, a simple clinical risk score of 7 characteristics can help differentiate those more or less likely to have CAD among women with angina pectoris and abnormal stress test findings. This tool, if validated, could help to guide testing strategies in women with angina pectoris.

Role of coronary angiography MDCT in the clinical setting: changes in diagnostic workup in the real world

PURPOSE

The authors sought to evaluate the incremental value of introducing coronary angiography with multidetector computed tomography (MDCT-CA) compared with the conventional diagnostic workup in managing patients with suspected coronary artery disease (CAD) workup.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A total of 531 consecutive patients underwent MDCT-CA between April 2008 and August 2010. For each patient the pretest probability of CAD was obtained by using the Morise score as well as the diagnostic performance of the exercise test and of MDCT-CA, considering conventional coronary angiography (CCA) as the gold standard. Based on these results, we calculated the posttest likelihood of CAD after stress testing, comparing the incremental diagnostic value for each category of cardiovascular risk with data obtained with MDCT-CA. The conventional diagnostic workup (without MDCT-CA) was then compared with the modified workup (including MDCT-CA).

RESULTS

The diagnostic performance of the exercise test for identifying patients with significant lesions had a sensitivity and specificity of 20% and 88%, respectively, with positive (PPV) and negative (NPV) predictive value of 41% and 72%, respectively. Taking CA as the gold standard, MDCT-CA had 93% sensitivity, 89% specificity, 88% PPV and 93% NPV compared with CCA in evaluating significant stenoses in the per-patient analysis. The overall diagnostic accuracy of MDCT-CA was 91%. The exercise tests provided no significant incremental diagnostic value compared with cardiovascular history in patients with a low to intermediate risk. Comparison of the diagnostic accuracy of these protocols showed improved performance results for the modified protocol.

CONCLUSIONS

MDCT-CA is the reference modality for the noninvasive exclusion of critical CAD. It provides a very high incremental diagnostic value compared with exercise testing in patients with a low to intermediate risk of CAD. The use of diagnostic protocols based on MDCT-CA ensures improved diagnostic performance compared with those involving conventional exercise electrocardiograms.

Risk scores prognostic implementation in patients with chest pain and nondiagnostic electrocardiograms

BACKGROUND

Several risk scores are available for prognostic purpose in patients presenting with chest pain.

AIM

The aim of this study was to compare Grace, Pursuit, Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI), Goldman, Sanchis, and Florence Prediction Rule (FPR) to exercise electrocardiogram (ECG), decision making, and outcome in the emergency setting.

METHODS

Patients with nondiagnostic ECGs and normal troponins and without history of coronary disease underwent exercise ECG. Patients with positive testing underwent coronary angiography; otherwise, they were discharged. End point was the composite of coronary stenosis at angiography or cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, angina, and revascularization at 12-month follow-up.

RESULTS

Of 508 patients considered, 320 had no history of coronary disease: 29 were unable to perform exercise testing, and finally, 291 were enrolled. Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves for Grace, Pursuit, TIMI, Goldman, Sanchis, and FPR were 0.59, 0.68, 0.69, 0.543, 0.66, and 0.74, respectively (P < .05 FPR vs Goldman and Grace). In patients with negative exercise ECG and overall low risk score, only the FPR effectively succeeded in recognizing those who achieved the end point; in patients with high risk score, the additional presence of carotid stenosis and recurrent angina predicted the end point (odds ratio, 12 and 5, respectively). Overall, logistic regression analysis including exercise ECG, coronary risk factors, and risk scores showed that exercise ECG was an independent predictor of coronary events (P < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

The FPR effectively succeeds in ruling out coronary events in patients categorized with overall low risk score. Exercise ECG, nonetheless being an independent predictor of coronary events could be considered questionable in this subset of patients.

High probability of disease in angina pectoris patients: is clinical estimation reliable?

BACKGROUND

According to most current guidelines, stable angina pectoris patients with a high probability of having coronary artery disease can be reliably identified clinically.

OBJECTIVES

To examine the reliability of clinical evaluation with or without an at-rest electrocardiogram (ECG) in patients with a high probability of coronary artery disease.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A prospective series of 357 patients referred for coronary angiography (CA) for suspected stable angina pectoris were examined by a trained physician who judged their type of pain and Canadian Cardiovascular Society grade of pain. Pretest likelihood of disease was estimated, and all patients underwent myocardial perfusion scintigraphy (MPS) followed by CA an average of 78 days later. For analysis, the investigators focused on the approximate groups of patients with more severe disease, ie, typical angina (n=187), Canadian Cardiovascular Society grade 2 pain or higher (n=176) or high (higher than 85%) estimated pretest likelihood of disease (n=142).

RESULTS

In the three groups, 34% to 39% of male patients and 65% to 69% of female patients had normal MPS, while 37% to 38% and 60% to 71%, respectively, had insignificant findings on CA. Of the patients who had also an abnormal at-rest ECG, 14% to 21% of men and 42% to 57% of women had normal MPS. Sex-related differences were statistically significant.

CONCLUSIONS

Clinical prediction appears to be unreliable. Addition of at-rest ECG data results in some improvement, particularly in male patients, but it makes the high probability groups so small that the addition appears to be of limited clinical relevance.

A comparison of treadmill scores to diagnose coronary artery disease

BACKGROUND

Recently, several treadmill scores have been proposed as means for improving the diagnostic accuracy of the exercise treadmill test (ETT). Questions remain regarding the diagnostic accuracy of treadmill scores when applied to a different patient population than that from which they were derived; furthermore, many treadmill scores have not been compared with one another in the same population.

HYPOTHESIS

The diagnostic accuracy of treadmill scores may not be the same.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis of data collected prospectively was performed on consecutive patients referred for evaluation of chest pain. All patients underwent a standard ETT followed by coronary angiography. Using angiographic evidence of coronary artery disease (CAD) as a reference, the area under the curve (AUC) of receiver operator characteristic (ROC) plots of the ST response alone, the Duke Treadmill Score (DTS), the Morise score, the Detrano score, the VA score, and a Consensus score consisting of the Morise, Detrano, and VA scores together were calculated and compared. The predictive accuracies of the DTS and the Consensus score to stratify patients for the likelihood of CAD were calculated and compared.

RESULTS

In all, 1,282 patients without a prior myocardial infarction had an ETT and coronary angiography. The AUC (+/- standard error) was 0.67+/-0.01 for the ST response, 0.73+/-0.01 for DTS, 0.76+/-0.01 for Detrano score, 0.77+/-0.01 for Morise score, 0.78+/-0.01 for VA score, and 0.78+/-0.01 for Consensus score. The AUC for each treadmill score was significantly higher (z-score > 1.96) than for the ST response alone. The AUC of DTS was significantly lower than all other treadmill scores (z-score > 1.96). The predictive accuracy (+/-95% confidence interval) of the DTS to risk stratify patients into high and low likelihood for CAD was 71 (65-77)%, versus 80 (74-86)% for the Consensus score (p < 0.0001).

CONCLUSION

In this population, the DTS remains useful for diagnosing CAD and stratifying for the likelihood of CAD, although it is less accurate than other treadmill scores.

What percent luminal stenosis should be used to define angiographic coronary artery disease for noninvasive test evaluation?

BACKGROUND

There has been controversy over what is the best angiographic luminal dimension criterion associated with ischemia for evaluating diagnostic tests. If one assumes that ST-segment depression or scores are indicators of ischemia, then whatever angiographic criteria best discriminates those with ischemic and nonischemic responses would be the best angiographic marker for ischemia. To study this, we calculated the area under the ROC curves for ST depression and scores at different angiographic cut-points in order to determine the best angiographic cut-point for defining ischemia-producing coronary disease.

METHODS

Twelve hundred and seventy-six consecutive males without prior MI with a mean age of 59 +/- 11 years who had undergone exercise testing and coronary angiography were analyzed in this study. We calculated the number of patients of this population that would be considered to have coronary artery disease at different cut-points for angiographic luminal stenosis. For example, 59% of the patients had significant CAD when disease was defined as 50% or greater coronary lumen stenosis of any coronary vessel while 49% of the patients had significant CAD when disease was defined as 70% or greater coronary lumen stenosis. Cut-points were considered between 40 to 100% coronary lumen stenosis. ROC analysis was then performed comparing ST depression and treadmill scores at each of these cut-points.

RESULTS

The cut-point for coronary lumen stenosis that returned the highest AUC for ST depression and scores was between 70 and 80% coronary luminal stenosis. However, the difference between the 50% and 75% luminal stenosis criteria was minimal.

CONCLUSION

It appears that the best cut-point for defining significant angiographic disease when evaluating diagnostic tests of ischemia is 75% or greater coronary luminal stenosis.

A new logistic regression approach for the evaluation of diagnostic test results

The value of a dichotomous diagnostic test is often described in terms of sensitivity, specificity, and likelihood ratios (LRs). Although it is known that these test characteristics vary between subgroups of patients, they are generally interpreted, on average, without considering information on patient characteristics, such as clinical signs and symptoms, or on previous test results. This article presents a reformulation of the logistic regression model that allows to calculate the LRs of diagnostic test results conditional on these covariates. The proposed method starts with estimating logistic regression models for the prior and posterior odds of disease. The regression model for the prior odds is based on patient characteristics, whereas the regression model for the posterior odds also includes the diagnostic test of interest. Following the Bayes theorem, the authors demontsrate that the regression model for the LR can be derived from taking the differences between the regression coefficients of the 2 models. In a clinical example, they demonstrate that the LRs of positive and negative test results and the sensitivity and specificity of the diagnostic test varied considerably between patients with different risk profiles, even when a constant odds ratio was assumed. The proposed logistic regression approach proves an efficient method to determine the performance of tests at the level of the individual patient risk profile and to examine the effect of patient characteristics on diagnostic test characteristics.

A simple clinical score accurately predicts outcome in a community-based population undergoing stress testing

PURPOSE

Scoring systems based on clinical variables are available but not widely applied for evaluating patients with chronic coronary artery disease. The purpose of this study was to validate the prognostic value of a simple clinical scoring system, originally developed in patients referred for a nuclear stress test at a tertiary-care medical center, in a less-selected, community-based population undergoing stress testing for known or suspected coronary artery disease.

SUBJECTS AND METHODS

Over a 4-year period, 3546 residents of Olmsted County, Minn, underwent stress testing. A previously developed clinical score was calculated for every patient by assigning 1 point each for: male sex, history of myocardial infarction, typical angina, diabetes, insulin use, and each decade of age beginning at age 40. The associations between the assigned score and clinical endpoints were tested using logistic regression. A previously established cutoff point of 5 was used to establish risk groups.

RESULTS

During follow-up (7.6 +/- 2.7 years) there were 363 total deaths, 109 cardiac deaths, and 132 nonfatal myocardial infarctions. The clinical score was strongly associated with overall mortality, cardiac death, and cardiac death/myocardial infarction (P <0.001 for all 3 endpoints). Annual mortality was .6% for the 3076 patients (86%) with a score < or =4, 2.4% for 275 patients (8%) with a score = 5 and 6.2% for the 215 patients (6%) with a score > or =6.

CONCLUSIONS

This study enhances the generalizability of this simple clinical score, which was highly effective for risk-stratifying this community-based population undergoing evaluation of chronic coronary artery disease.

Improving the positive predictive value of exercise testing in women

OBJECTIVE

To identify exercise test variables that can improve the positive predictive value of exercise testing in women.

DESIGN

Cohort study.

SETTING

Regional cardiothoracic centre.

SUBJECTS

1286 women and 1801 men referred by primary care physicians to a rapid access chest pain clinic, of whom 160 women and 406 men had ST depression of at least 1 mm during exercise testing. The results for 136 women and 124 men with positive exercise tests were analysed.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The proportion of women with a positive exercise test who could be identified as being at low risk for prognostic coronary heart disease and the resulting improvement in the positive predictive value.

RESULTS

Independently of age, an exercise time of more than six minutes, a maximum heart rate of more than 150 beats/min, and an ST recovery time of less than one minute were the variables that best identified women at low risk. One to three of these variables identified between 11.8% and 41.2% of women as being at low risk, with a risk for prognostic disease of between 0-11.5%. The positive predictive value for the remaining women was improved from 47.8% up to 61.5%, and the number of normal angiograms was potentially reducible by between 21.1-54.9%. By the same criteria, men had higher risks for prognostic disease.

CONCLUSIONS

A strategy of discriminating true from false positive exercise tests is worthwhile in women but less successful in men.

Exercise testing scores as an example of better decisions through science

INTRODUCTION

The application of common statistical techniques to clinical and exercise test data has the potential to become a useful tool for assisting in the diagnosis of coronary artery disease, assessing prognosis, and reducing the cost of evaluating patients with suspected coronary disease. Since general practitioners function as gatekeepers and decide which patients must be referred to the cardiologist, they need to optimally use the basic tools they have available (i.e., history, physical exam, and the exercise test).

METHODS

Review of the literature with a focus on the scientific techniques for aiding the decision-making process.

RESULTS

Scores derived from multivariable statistical techniques considering clinical and exercise data have demonstrated superior discriminating power when compared using receiver-operating-characteristic curves with the ST segment response. In addition, by stratifying patients as to probability of disease and prognosis, they provide a management strategy. While computers as part of information management systems can calculate complicated equations to provide scores, physicians are reluctant to trust them. Thus, these scores have been represented as nomograms or simple additive tables so physicians are comfortable with their application. Scores have also been compared with physician judgment and been found to estimate the presence of coronary disease and prognosis as well as expert cardiologists, and often better than nonspecialists.

CONCLUSION

Multivariate scores can empower the clinician to assure the cardiac patient with access to appropriate and cost-effective cardiological care.

Use of a simple clinical score to predict prognosis of patients with normal or mildly abnormal resting electrocardiographic findings undergoing evaluation for coronary artery disease

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether a simple clinical score, which was shown previously to predict the likelihood of severe coronary artery disease (CAD) in patients referred for coronary angiography, could predict prognosis in a separate cohort of patients with normal or mildly abnormal findings on their resting electrocardiogram (ECG) who were undergoing noninvasive evaluation for possible CAD.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

The study group included 2255 symptomatic patients with normal (n=1466) or mildly abnormal (nonspecific ST-T-wave abnormalities; n=789) findings on their resting ECG who were referred for exercise thallium testing between 1989 and 1991. Follow-up was 94% complete at a mean +/- SD duration of 6.9+/-1.5 years. The clinical score, which ranged from 0 (lowest risk) to 10 (highest risk), was calculated by awarding 1 point each for male sex, history of myocardial infarction, typical angina, diabetes mellitus, insulin use, and each decade of age older than 40 years.

RESULTS

In each ECG group, the clinical score was a significant predictor of cardiac death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, or late revascularization, considered individually or combined, unadjusted or with adjustment for age. Most patients had a score lower than 5; these patients had an excellent 5-year cardiac survival rate (99.7% for the normal ECG findings group and 98.8% for the ST-T-wave abnormalities group). The small subset of patients with a score higher than 5 had a much lower 5-year survival rate (923% for the 8% of patients with normal ECG findings and 86.6% for the 14% of patients with ST-T-wave abnormalities). For patients with a score of 5, the 5-year survival rate was 97.7% for the normal ECG findings group and 95.9% for the ST-T-wave abnormalities group.

CONCLUSION

In symptomatic patients with known or suspected CAD and normal or mildly abnormal resting ECG findings, this simple, easily computed clinical score is a useful and valid tool to help determine prognosis.

Better decisions through science: exercise testing scores

Statistical tools can be used to create scores for assisting in the diagnosis of coronary artery disease and assessing prognosis. General practitioners and internists frequently function as gatekeepers, deciding which patients must be referred to the cardiologist. Therefore, they need to use the basic tools they have available (ie, history, physical examination and the exercise test) in an optimal fashion. Scores derived from multivariable statistical techniques considering clinical and exercise data have demonstrated superior discriminating power compared with diagnosis only using the ST segment response. In addition, by stratifying patients as to probability of disease and prognosis, they provide a more practical management strategy than a response of normal or abnormal. Although computers, as part of information management systems, can calculate complicated equations and derive these scores, physicians are reluctant to trust them. However, when represented as nomograms or simple additive discrete pieces of information, scores are more readily accepted. The scores have been compared with physician judgment and have been found to estimate the presence of coronary disease and prognosis as well as expert cardiologists and often better than nonspecialists. However, the discriminating power of specific variables from the medical history and exercise test remains unclear because of inadequate study design and differences in study populations. Should expired gases be substituted for estimated METs? Should ST/heart rate index be used instead of putting ST depression and heart rate separately into the models? Should right-sided chest leads and heart rate in recovery be considered? There is a need for further evaluation of these easily obtained variables to improve the accuracy of prediction algorithms, especially in women. The portability and reliability of scores must be ensured because access to specialized care must be safeguarded. Assessment of the clinical and exercise test data and application of the newer scores can empower the clinician to assure the cardiac patient access to appropriate and cost-effective cardiologic care.

Assessing patients with possible heart disease using scores

Multivariable analysis of clinical and exercise test data has the potential to become a useful tool for assisting in the diagnosis of coronary artery disease, assessing prognosis, and reducing the cost of evaluating patients with suspected coronary disease. Since general practitioners are functioning as gatekeepers and decide which patients must be referred to the cardiologist, they need to use the basic tools they have available (i.e. history, physical examination and the exercise test), in an optimal fashion. Scores derived from multivariable statistical techniques considering clinical and exercise data have demonstrated superior discriminating power compared with simple classification of the ST response. In addition, by stratifying patients as to probability of disease and prognosis, they provide a management strategy. While computers, as part of information management systems, can run complicated equations and derive these scores, physicians are reluctant to trust them. Thus, these scores have been represented as nomograms or simple additive tables so physicians are comfortable with their application. Their results have also been compared with physician judgment and found to estimate the presence of coronary disease and prognosis as well as expert cardiologists and often better than nonspecialists. However, the discriminating power of specific variables from the medical history and exercise test remains unclear because of inadequate study design and differences in study populations. Should expired gases be substituted for estimated metabolic equivalents (METs)? Should ST/heart rate (HR) index be used instead of putting these measurements separately into the models? Should right-sided chest leads and HR in recovery be considered? There is a need for further evaluation of these routinely obtained variables to improve the accuracy of prediction algorithms especially in women. The portability and reliability of these equations must be demonstrated since access to specialised care must be safe-guarded. Hopefully, sequential assessment of the clinical and exercise test data and application of the newer generation of multivariable equations can empower the clinician to assure the cardiac patient access to appropriate and cost-effective cardiological care.

Invasive investigations and revascularisation

Invasive investigation of coronary artery disease is relatively expensive, and carries risks including a mortality of approximately 1 in 2000. It would not be practical or appropriate to perform invasive investigation in all patients with a clinical diagnosis of coronary artery disease, still less in the large numbers with chest pain and possible angina. Clinicians will refer for invasive investigation those: (i) with a high level of angina, needing revascularisation on symptomatic grounds; and (ii) who are likely to have a poor prognosis with medical treatment, and thus likely to benefit from revascularisation. Not all of these patients will have a high level of symptoms.

Clinical presentation and diagnosis of coronary artery disease: stable angina

Angina pectoris is a clinical syndrome of discomfort in the chest, jaw, arm, or other sites which is associated with myocardial ischaemia. The nature of angina has many individual variations, and it is easier first to consider the typical syndrome. It is hard to better the descriptions of William Heberden: There is a disorder of the breast, marked with strong and peculiar symptoms, considerable for the danger belonging to it.... Those who are afflicted with it are seized, while they are walking, and more particularly when they walk soon after eating, with a painful and most disagreeable sensation in the breast.... the moment they stand still all this uneasiness vanishes. After it has continued some months, it will not cease so instantaneous upon standing still ... (most) whom I have seen, who are at least twenty, were men, and almost all above 50 years old, and most of them with a short neck, and inclining to be fat.... But the natural tendency of this illness be to kill the patients suddenly.... The os sterni is usually pointed to as the seat of this malady ... and sometimes there is with it a pain about the middle of the left arm. The usual cause of myocardial ischaemia is coronary atherosclerosis. Other diseases of the coronary arteries (emboli, spasm, vasculitis, Kawasaki disease, congenital anomalies), other cardiac diseases (hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, severe hypertension, severe aortic valve disease), and high output states (severe anaemia, thyrotoxicosis) are all uncommon or rare causes of angina. However, while angina is usually associated with atherosclerotic coronary artery disease, the converse is not always true. The condition of coronary atherosclerosis is very common (fatty streaks and more advanced plaques are almost universal in adults in industrialised countries) but it does not always cause myocardial ischaemia. Furthermore, myocardial ischaemia may present other than with angina - for each presentation there is a wide differential diagnosis.

A perspective on standardizing the predictive power of noninvasive cardiovascular tests by likelihood ratio computation: 2. Clinical applications

Likelihood ratio measures may be used as a standard for expressing the predictive power of noninvasive cardiovascular tests, calculated from sensitivity and specificity measures or as ratios of the predictive value odds to pretest odds for positive and negative test results. The positive likelihood ratio, (+)LR, expresses the power of a positive test result to augment an estimate of disease probability independent of the pretest prevalence of disease in a given population; the negative likelihood ratio, (-)LR, expresses the power of a negative test result to augment an estimate of the probability of no disease independent of the pretest prevalence of no disease in the same population. The likelihood ratio principle is applicable to the evaluation of the predictive power of single or combined test results reported for either dichotomous or continuous end points. This part of the perspective exemplifies application of the likelihood ratio principle in a wide variety of testing conditions for coronary artery disease followed by a discussion of the limitations of likelihood ratio computation in test power evaluation. Likelihood ratios provide a more concise and unambiguous standard for calibrating the predictive power of single and combined noninvasive cardiovascular test results than are provided by measures of sensitivity, specificity, and predictive value.

Exercise-induced silent myocardial ischemia and future cardiac events in healthy, sedentary, middle-aged and older men

OBJECTIVES

Before men older than age 45 participate in vigorous exercise programs, the American Heart Association and the American College of Sports Medicine recommend they undergo a screening maximal exercise treadmill test. We examined the predictive value for subsequent cardiac events of exercise-induced silent myocardial ischemia (SI) during the exercise treadmill test in healthy, sedentary, obese, middle-aged and older men recruited for research studies.

DESIGN

A cohort study with 7 years of follow-up.

SETTING

Out-patient research at a tertiary hospital.

PARTICIPANTS

170 healthy, sedentary, obese, middle-aged and older (ages 45-79 years) men with no prior history of coronary artery disease (CAD) recruited for research studies.

MEASUREMENTS

Cardiac risk factors, exercise-induced SI (ST segment depression on the electrocardiogram during a maximal exercise treadmill test), maximal aerobic capacity (VO2max), and 7- year follow-up data on incident CAD.

RESULTS

At baseline, 37 of the men (22%) had exercise-induced SI on their treadmill tests. Seven-year follow-up data was obtained in 97% of the patients. In the interim, 31 men had cardiac endpoints (sudden cardiac death, myocardial infarction, angioplasty, coronary artery bypass graft surgery, angina), and four had noncardiac deaths. Seventeen of the 37 men (46%) with exercise-induced SI on their baseline exercise tests had cardiac endpoints compared with 14 of 133 (11%) men with normal exercise tests (P < .001). Compared with the men with no cardiac endpoints, the men with subsequent cardiac endpoints were older (63 +/- 1 vs 58 +/- 1 years, mean +/- SEM, P < .001) and had a lower maximal aerobic capacity (VO2max) (24 +/- 1 vs 29 +/- 1 mL/kg/min, P < .001). In Cox proportional hazards analysis, exercise-induced SI and a low VO2max were independent predictors of subsequent cardiac endpoints.

CONCLUSION

In a healthy population of obese, sedentary, middle-aged and older men, exercise-induced SI and low VO2max were predictors of incident CAD. This suggests that exercise treadmill testing is beneficial in assessing risk for future cardiac events in obese, sedentary individuals.

Coronary calcium: the good, the bad, and the uncertain

BACKGROUND

Coronary calcium deposits have been widely regarded to result from a passive process of encrustation or adsorption of mineral onto advanced, complex atherosclerotic lesions. Increasing interest has focused on noninvasive radiologic detection of these calcium deposits as a diagnostic and prognostic adjunct to clinical evaluation of coronary artery disease, particularly with the use of newer, high-resolution imaging techniques such as electron beam computed tomography.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We reviewed the literature on coronary calcium and its relation to pathologic atherosclerosis, angiographic stenoses,and clinical events. Clinical calcium detection studies have demonstrated an association between coronary calcium and both extent of coronary artery disease and risk of adverse events. These studies have in the past tended to reinforce the perception that calcific deposits result from a passive mineralization process, signify advanced coronary artery disease, and foreshadow future coronary events.

CONCLUSIONS

Recent pathologic, genetic, clinical, and biochemical evidence reviewed in this article suggests that coronary calcium deposits are a manifestation of a complex, organized, and regulated process similar in many respects to new bone formation and may not be a reliable indicator of either the extent of coronary disease or the risk of a future event. These studies also suggest that atherosclerosis and calcific deposits may be distinct pathologic entities that frequently occur together and are related to each other in ways that are poorly understood.

Accuracy of heart rate-adjusted ST segments in populations with and without posttest referral bias

We compared the accuracy of the ST segment/heart rate (STHR) index and slope to standard criteria (> or =1 mm horizontal/downsloping ST-segment depression at J + 60 msec) in 1358 patients (152 underwent angiography). All exercise tests used the Cornell protocol and computer measurements of maximum ST-segment depression at J + 60 msec. Test accuracy was determined for the entire group with a probability-based method. Thresholds with equal specificity to standard criteria were determined. By using only patients who underwent angiography, neither STHR index nor slope was more accurate than standard criteria (maximum sensitivity: standard criteria, 42%; STHR index, 51%; STHR slope, 40%). However, by using the entire group, both STHR index and slope were more accurate than standard criteria, but only STHR index achieved statistical significance (maximum sensitivity: standard criteria, 31%; STHR index, 60%; STHR slope, 47%). We conclude that heart rate-adjusted ST-segment criteria are more accurate than standard ST-segment criteria. A lack of demonstration of improved accuracy of STHR index and slope only occurs in patients affected by posttest referral bias.

The specificity of exercise electrocardiography in women grouped by estrogen status

We compared the specificity of exercise electrocardiography in 1880 men and 1818 women with women grouped by menopausal and estrogen replacement status. Specificity for > or = 1 mm horizontal or downsloping ST-segment depression was determined using angiography in 781 patients and using two other nonangiography-based methods (a pretest probability-based method and a predictive accuracy-based method) in all patients. Using angiography, the specificities+/-SE were 84 +/- 2 for men, 79 +/- 3 for women, 81 +/- 5 for premenopausal women, 81 +/- 4 for postmenopausal women without estrogen replacement, and 77 +/- 5 for women on estrogen replacement. None of these were significantly different. For all patients, the respective specificities using the probability and predictive accuracy-based methods were 97 +/- 1 and 94 +/- 1 for men, 90 +/- 1 and 88 +/- 1 for women, 97 +/- 1 and 92 +/- 2 for premenopausal women, 92 +/- 4 and 88 +/- 3 for postmenopausal women without estrogen replacement, and 85 +/- 4 and 81 +/- 3 for women on estrogen replacement. (Men vs. all women groups except premenopausal women-P < 0.05). Therefore, the premenopausal women had significantly greater specificity than women on estrogen replacement (P < 0.001) and no difference in specificity with men. Women on estrogen replacement had a significantly lower specificity than postmenopausal women not on estrogen replacement (P < 0.05). These results suggest that estrogen replacement therapy and not naturally occurring estrogen has a role in producing false positive exercise electrocardiograms in women.

A consensus approach to diagnosing coronary artery disease based on clinical and exercise test data

OBJECTIVE

To demonstrate that a consensus approach for combining prediction equations based on clinical and exercise test variables derived from different populations can stratify patients referred for possible coronary artery disease (CAD) into low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups.

DESIGN

Retrospective analysis of consecutive patients with complete data from exercise testing and coronary angiography referred for evaluation of possible CAD. After derivation of a logistic equation in our own training set of patients, this equation, along with two other equations developed independently by other investigators, was validated in a test set. The validation strategy for the consensus approach included the following: (1) calculation of probability scores for each patient using each logistic equation independently; (2) determination of probability thresholds in the training set to divide the patients into three groups-low risk (prevalence CAD <5%), intermediate risk (5 to 70%), and high risk (>70% prevalence of CAD); (3) using agreement among at least two of three of the prediction equations to generate "consensus" for each patient; and (4) application of the consensus approach thresholds to the test set of patients.

SETTINGS

Two university-affiliated Veteran's Affairs medical centers.

PATIENTS

We studied 718 consecutive men between 1985 and 1995 who had coronary angiography within 3 months of an exercise treadmill test for suspected CAD. The population was randomly divided into a training set of 429 patients and a test set of 289 patients. Patients with previous myocardial infarction or coronary artery bypass surgery, valvular heart disease, left bundle branch block, or any Q waves present on their resting ECG were excluded from the study.

MEASUREMENTS

Recording of clinical and exercise test data along with visual interpretation of the ECG recordings on standardized forms and abstraction of visually interpreted angiographic data from clinical catheterization reports.

RESULTS

We demonstrated that by using simple clinical and exercise test variables, we could improve on the standard use of ECG criteria during exercise testing for diagnosing CAD. Using the consensus approach divided the test set into populations with low, intermediate, and high risk for CAD. Since the patients in the intermediate group would be sent for further testing and would eventually be correctly classified, the sensitivity of the consensus approach is 94% and the specificity is 92%. The consensus approach controls for varying disease prevalence, missing data, inconsistency in variable definition, and varying angiographic criterion for stenosis severity. The percent of correct diagnoses increased from the 67% for standard exercise ECG analysis and from the 80% for multivariable predictive equations alone to >90% correct diagnoses for the consensus approach.

CONCLUSIONS

The consensus approach has made population-specific logistic regression equations portable to other populations. Excellent diagnostic characteristics can be obtained using simple data and measurements. The consensus approach is best applied utilizing a programmable calculator or a computer program to simplify the process of calculating the probability of CAD using the three equations.

Sex and test verification bias. Impact on the diagnostic value of exercise echocardiography

BACKGROUND

The use of exercise echocardiography for the diagnosis of coronary artery disease (CAD) has been validated in pilot studies but is not documented in clinical practice and in women comparatively with men. The objectives of this study were to determine the effects of sex and of test verification bias on the diagnostic performance of exercise echocardiography.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Three thousand six hundred seventy-nine consecutive patients (1714 women, 1965 men) who underwent an exercise echocardiographic study were studied; the observed sensitivity, specificity, and correct classification rate were calculated among 340 patients (244 men, 96 women) who underwent angiography; to study the effect of test verification bias, sensitivity and specificity were estimated for all patients who underwent exercise echocardiography including those not referred to angiography. In the angiographic group, the prevalence of CAD was 60% in women and 80% in men. The observed sensitivity and specificity of exercise echocardiography was 78% and 44% in men and 79% and 37% in women. After adjustment for test verification bias, the estimated sensitivity was lower in women (32% versus 42% in men), whereas specificity was similar in both sexes. The positive predictive value was lower in women (66%) compared with men (84%).

CONCLUSIONS

In clinical practice, test verification bias results in a lower observed specificity and a higher sensitivity of exercise echocardiography. In women, positive predictive value and adjusted sensitivity are lower compared with that in men.

The effect of disease-prevalence adjustments on the accuracy of a logistic prediction model

The accuracy of a logistic prediction model is degraded when it is transported to populations with outcome prevalences different from that of the population used to derive the model. The resultant errors can have major clinical implications. Accordingly, the authors developed a logistic prediction model with respect to the noninvasive diagnosis of coronary disease based on 1,824 patients who underwent exercise testing and coronary angiography, varied the prevalence of disease in various "test" populations by random sampling of the original "derivation" population, and determined the accuracy of the logistic prediction model before and after the application of a mathematical algorithm designed to adjust only for these differences in prevalence. The accuracy of each prediction model was quantified in terms of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve area (discrimination) and chi-square goodness-of-fit (calibration). As the prevalence of the test population diverged from the prevalence of the derivation population, discrimination improved (ROC-curve areas increased from 0.82 +/- 0.02 to 0.87 +/- 0.03; p < 0.05), and calibration deteriorated (chi-square goodness-of-fit statistics increased from 9 to 154; p < 0.05). Following adjustment of the logistic intercept for differences in prevalence, discrimination was unchanged and calibration improved (maximum chi-square goodness-of-fit fell from 154 to 16). When the adjusted algorithm was applied to three geographically remote populations with prevalences that differed from that of the derivation population, calibration improved 87%, while discrimination fell by 1%. Thus, prevalence differences produce statistically significant and potentially clinically important errors in the accuracy of logistic prediction models. These errors can potentially be mitigated by use of a relatively simple mathematical correction algorithm.

Development and validation of a Bayesian model for perioperative cardiac risk assessment in a cohort of 1,081 vascular surgical candidates

OBJECTIVES

This study sought to develop and validate a Bayesian risk prediction model for vascular surgery candidates.

BACKGROUND

Patients who require surgical treatment of peripheral vascular disease are at increased risk of perioperative cardiac morbidity and mortality. Existing prediction models tend to underestimate risk in vascular surgery candidates.

METHODS

The cohort comprised 1,081 consecutive vascular surgery candidates at five medical centers. Of these, 567 patients from two centers ("training" set) were used to develop the model, and 514 patients from three centers were used to validate it ("validation" set). Risk scores were developed using logistic regression for clinical variables: advanced age (>70 years), angina, history of myocardial infarction, diabetes mellitus, history of congestive heart failure and prior coronary revascularization. A second model was developed from dipyridamole-thallium predictors of myocardial infarction (i.e., fixed and reversible myocardial defects and ST changes). Model performance was assessed by comparing observed event rates with risk estimates and by performing receiver-operating characteristic curve (ROC) analysis.

RESULTS

The postoperative cardiac event rate was 8% for both sets. Prognostic accuracy (i.e., ROC area) was 74 +/- 3% (mean +/- SD) for the clinical and 81 +/- 3% for the clinical and dipyridamole-thallium models. Among the validation sets, areas were 74 +/- 9%, 72 +/- 7% and 76 +/- 5% for each center. Observed and estimated rates were comparable for both sets. By the clinical model, the observed rates were 3%, 8% and 18% for patients classified as low, moderate and high risk by clinical factors (p<0.0001). The addition of dipyridamole-thallium data reclassified >80% of the moderate risk patients into low (3%) and high (19%) risk categories (p<0.0001) but provided no stratification for patients classified as low or high risk according to the clinical model.

CONCLUSIONS

Simple clinical markers, weighted according to prognostic impact, will reliably stratify risk in vascular surgery candidates referred for dipyridamole-thallium testing, thus obviating the need for the more expensive testing. Our prediction model retains its prognostic accuracy when applied to the validation sets and can reliably estimate risk in this group.

Comparison of the sensitivity and specificity of exercise electrocardiography in biased and unbiased populations of men and women

To assess for sex-related differences in posttest referral bias, we compared the accuracy of exercise electrocardiography in biased (coronary angiography only) and unbiased (all unselected) populations with possible coronary disease. A retrospective analysis of clinical and exercise test data from 4467 patients (788 who underwent angiography) was performed (2824 men and 1643 women). The accuracy of a positive exercise test result was assessed in the entire unbiased group with a method that used disease probability (derived with a logistic algorithm) rather than angiography results. We found that the sensitivity and specificity were significantly greater in men than in women with use of the biased or unbiased groups. When the results for the unbiased and biased groups were compared, the sensitivities for the unbiased group were significantly lower and the specificities were significantly higher than those of the biased group. These differences reflect the effects of posttest referral bias. The amounts that sensitivity decreased and specificity increased, however, was not different for men and women. Therefore, we conclude that the accuracy of exercise electrocardiography is lower in women than men irrespective of whether a biased or an unbiased group is used. However, these differences cannot be explained on the basis of sex-related differences in posttest referral bias.

Incremental value of exercise electrocardiography and thallium-201 testing in men and women for the presence and extent of coronary artery disease

Our goal was to assess the incremental value of exercise testing in men and women for the diagnosis and extent of coronary artery disease. With data from one center, incremental logistic algorithms were developed and evaluated in a separate set of 865 patients from four centers. Variables included were pretest (age, sex, symptoms, diabetes, smoking, and cholesterol concentration); exercise electrocardiogram (ECG) (ST-segment depression [millimeters], ST-segment slope, peak heart rate, and change in systolic blood pressure); and thallium-201 scintigram (defect presence, reversibility, and intensity of hypoperfusion). End points were coronary disease presence (50% diameter stenosis) and extent (multivessel disease). Accuracy and incremental value were assessed by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. Incremental ROC curve areas for disease presence were pretest 0.75 +/- 0.02, post-exercise ECG 0.82 +/- 0.01, and post-thallium scintigram 0.85 +/- 0.01 and for disease extent were pretest 0.71 +/- 0.02, post-exercise ECG 0.76 +/- 0.02, and post-thallium scintigram 0.78 +/- 0.02 (p < 0.005 for all increments). Incremental increases in accuracy were similar for men and women. We conclude that when multivariable algorithms derived from one center were applied to a separate group, there was a significant incremental increase in accuracy associated with exercise testing for the presence and extent of coronary disease. This increase in accuracy was similar for men and women.

Diagnostic accuracy of heart rate-adjusted ST segments compared with standard ST-segment criteria

We compared the accuracy of ST segment/heart rate (ST/HR) index with that of standard criteria (> or = 0.1 mV horizontal/downsloping ST depression 80 ms after the J point) in 121 patients who had undergone angiography (49 with > or = 1 lesion with > or = 50% stenosis) and 50 clinically normal subjects. All exercise tests used the Cornell protocol and computer measurements of maximal ST depression 80 ms after the J point. Thresholds with equal specificity to standard criteria were determined for ST/HR index using each of the 2 normal groups (those who were normal by angiography and those who were clinically normal). In using only patients who underwent angiography, we found that the ST/HR index had a sensitivity that was not significantly greater than that of standard criteria (standard criteria 51%, ST/HR index 59%; p = 0.21). However, the receiver-operating characteristic curve area increased from 64 +/- 4 to 68 +/- 4 (p < 0.02). When clinically normal subjects were used instead of patients without angiographic disease, there was a clearly discernible improvement in sensitivity of ST/HR index over standard criteria (standard criteria 51%, ST/HR index 69%; p < 0.05). The associated curve areas were 69 +/- 4 and 79 +/- 3 (p < 0.001). Therefore, accuracy of the ST/HR index was marginally better than standard criteria only in patients who underwent angiography. When clinically normal subjects were used, the accuracy of the ST/HR index was definitely better than standard criteria. We conclude that the demonstration of improved accuracy of the ST/HR index depends on the population being tested.

Influence of age and gender on the presence of coronary calcium detected by ultrafast computed tomography

OBJECTIVES

This study sought to determine the relation between coronary calcification detected with ultrafast computed tomography and lumen narrowing defined with angiography and evaluated whether this relation is influenced by age and gender.

BACKGROUND

Ultrafast computed tomography has been shown to be a sensitive method for detection of coronary calcification associated with atherosclerotic disease, but the relation between the extent of coronary calcification and degree of lumen narrowing and the possible influence of gender or age, or both, on this relation have not been clarified.

METHODS

Seventy men and 70 women were studied with ultrafast computed tomography for analysis of coronary calcification and coronary angiography. Coronary atherosclerosis was considered present if any lumen irregularity was noted on angiography, and obstructive coronary artery disease was defined as a lumen diameter narrowing > or = 70%.

RESULTS

Coronary calcification had a sensitivity of 88% for identification of patients with atherosclerotic disease and 97% for those with obstructive disease, with corresponding specificities of 55% and 41%, respectively. The sensitivity of coronary calcium for detection of atherosclerotic disease in women < 60 years old was 50%, significantly less than the 97% sensitivity in women > 60 years old and the 87% sensitivity in men < 60 years old (p < 0.05 for each comparison). Logistic regression analysis revealed a 1.81-fold increase in the likelihood of detecting coronary calcification in the atherosclerotic lesions of men compared with those in women (95% confidence interval 1.12 to 2.93, p = 0.016) when controlled for age and severity of coronary disease by angiography.

CONCLUSIONS

Atherosclerotic lesions in women are less likely to have coronary calcium than lesions with a similar degree of lumen narrowing in men. Differences in the pattern of coronary calcification between men and women may provide insight into the gender differences observed in the clinical development of symptomatic coronary artery disease.

Afterimages: integration of diagnostic information through Bayesian enhancement of scintigraphic images

Although the diagnostic accuracy of myocardial perfusion scintigraphy can be improved by additional consideration of clinical and exercise information, multivariate prediction models are infrequently used for this purpose in the clinical setting. We therefore developed a Bayesian algorithm that instead transforms the scintigraphic image itself, modifying defect contrast as a function of the pretest likelihood of coronary artery disease. The algorithm was tested in computer simulations of myocardial perfusion scintigraphy with data from 378 patients (166 from California and 212 from West Virginia) who underwent planar exercise thallium-201 scintigraphy and coronary angiography. Images were interpreted before and after enhancement by eight readers (four at each medical center) with different training orientations (internist, radiologist, cardiologist, nuclear cardiologist, and nuclear medicine technologist) who used a four-point score (from 0, normal to 3, severe defect). Accuracy was quantified as area under a receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Improvements in accuracy obtained by the algorithm were compared to those provided by multiple logistic regression. Overall, Bayesian enhancement increased ROC area from 0.63 +/- 0.04 to 0.71 +/- 0.04 (p < 0.01). The improvement was consistent for all 16 reading sets (eight readers multiplied by two patient populations; p < 0.05). In comparison, multiple logistic regression increased ROC area from 0.63 +/- 0.04 to 0.79 +/- 0.03 (p < 0.01), outperforming interpretation of the enhanced images in 13 of the 16 reading sets. Bayesian enhancement improves diagnostic accuracy of conventional scintigraphic image interpretation. The improvement is stable across individuals, training orientations, and patient populations. Although this approach is not as accurate as multiple logistic regression, it may be more practical for widespread clinical application.

Exercise testing without interruption of medication for refining the selection of mildly symptomatic patients for prognostic coronary angiography

OBJECTIVE

To examine how exercise testing on background medical treatment affects the ability of the test to predict prognostically important patterns of coronary anatomy in patients with a high clinical probability of coronary artery disease but who are well controlled on medication.

DESIGN

Prospective study.

SETTING

Regional cardiothoracic centre and referring district general hospital.

PATIENTS

84 patients with a history of typical angina or definite myocardial infarction and mild symptoms who had been placed on the waiting list for prognostic angiography.

INTERVENTION

Maximal exercise electrocardiography and radionuclide ventriculography performed off and on medication, followed by angiography within three months.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Prognostically important coronary artery disease for which early surgery might be recommended purely on prognostic grounds, irrespective of symptoms.

RESULTS

Coronary artery disease was present in 71/84 (85%) patients; in 28/84 (33%) patients this was prognostically important. When the result was strongly positive, the predictive accuracy for prognostically important disease was 0.46 off and 0.62 on medication for the exercise electrocardiogram and 0.71 off and 0.82 on medication for exercise radionuclide ventriculography. The likelihood ratio was 1.00 off and 1.36 on medication for exercise electrocardiography and 2.54 off and 10.5 on medication for exercise radionuclide ventriculography. In stepwise logistic regression, the test identified as the strongest predictor of prognostically important disease was exercise radionuclide ventriculography on medication for which the improvement chi 2 was 28 (p < 0.0001). With the regression model, the probability of important disease is 92% if exercise radionuclide ventriculography on medication is at least strongly positive, compared with 16% if the result is normal or just positive.

CONCLUSION

In patients likely to have coronary disease, exercise testing should be performed without interruption of medication to optimise its ability to identify those with prognostically important disease, and to help to avoid unnecessary or premature angiography in those who are well controlled on medical treatment.

Diagnostic and prognostic value of dipyridamole echocardiography in patients with suspected coronary artery disease. Comparison with exercise electrocardiography

BACKGROUND

Before any new diagnostic test is accepted in clinical practice, such a test should be compared with established diagnostic tools in an appropriately large series of patients encompassing the complete spectrum of challenges to which the test is exposed. The aim of the present study was to assess the relative diagnostic and prognostic accuracies of high-dose dipyridamole echocardiography (two-dimensional echocardiographic monitoring during dipyridamole infusion up to 0.84 mg/kg over 10 hours) versus maximal symptom-limited bicycle exercise ECG test in patients with angina.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We studied 429 consecutive in-hospital patients who met the following inclusion criteria: history of chest pain, off antianginal therapy for at least 2 days (1 week for beta-blockers), no previous myocardial infarction and/or obvious regional left ventricular dyssynergy of contraction (akinesis or dyskinesis) at baseline, and acceptable acoustic window under resting conditions. All patients underwent dipyridamole echocardiography and exercise ECG--on different days and in random order--within 1 week of coronary angiography (which was performed independent of test results) and were followed up for 37.8 +/- 14 months (range, 1 to 73 months). Criteria of positivity were for dipyridamole echocardiography, a transient regional dyssynergy absent in the baseline examination; for exercise ECG, an ST-segment shift of > or = 0.1 mV from baseline; and for coronary angiography, a luminal reduction of > or = 75% in at least one major coronary vessel (50% for left main). There were 183 patients without and 246 with coronary artery disease; 132 had one-, 70 had two-, and 44 had three- and/or left main vessel disease. The specificity was higher for dipyridamole echocardiography than for exercise ECG (90% versus 51%, P < .001). The overall sensitivity of dipyridamole echocardiography was similar to that of exercise ECG (75% versus 74%, P = NS), with no significant differences in the subset with one- (67% versus 69%, P = NS), two- (79% versus 77%, P = NS), or three- (93% versus 86%, P = NS) vessel disease. During the follow-up, there were 20 deaths, 13 nonfatal myocardial infarctions, and 126 revascularization procedures. In the univariate analysis, dipyridamole resulted in higher chi 2 values than did exercise stress testing. A Cox forward stepwise survival analysis identified the dipyridamole time as the most powerful prognostic predictor of death (chi 2 = 19.4, P < .0001) of all invasive and noninvasive parameters. The dipyridamole time also provided independent and additional prognostic information when it was adjusted for age, diabetes, resting ECG, and exercise stress test according to a modified, interactive stepwise procedure. This is true when death only, death and myocardial infarction, and death, myocardial infarction, and revascularization procedures were considered end points.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with no previous myocardial infarction and good resting left ventricular function, compared with exercise ECG, dipyridamole echocardiography has a similar sensitivity and a higher specificity for the noninvasive detection of angiographically assessed coronary artery disease. Dipyridamole echocardiography also provides information in addition to that provided by exercise ECG for predicting death, infarction, and all events when the presence as well as the timing, severity, and extension of dipyridamole-induced wall motion abnormalities are considered.

Incremental evaluation of exercise capacity as an independent predictor of coronary artery disease presence and extent

To determine the independent incremental value of exercise capacity (METS) concerning the presence and extent of coronary artery disease, we analyzed data from 800 patients with suspected coronary disease who underwent both exercise testing and coronary angiography. We performed logistic regression analysis of clinical and exercise test data with an incremental design to mimic the usual flow of data acquisition. Separate analyses were performed concerning coronary disease presence (> or = 1 vessel with a > or = 50% lesion) and extent (three-vessel/left main disease). Diagnostic accuracy was determined by calculating receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve areas. When considered alone, METS was a significant predictor of both presence and extent of disease. Multivariate analysis revealed that METS was an independent predictor of disease extent but not presence. However, comparison of ROC curve areas failed to show any loss of accuracy when METS was removed from the coronary disease extent analysis. Despite the strong univariate relationship between exercise capacity and coronary disease presence and extent and the independence of exercise capacity as a predictor of coronary disease extent, the lack of an additional incremental accuracy attributed to its consideration virtually cancels its value as a diagnostic variable for assessing both coronary disease presence and extent.

Value of a simple measure of estrogen status for improving the diagnosis of coronary artery disease in women

PURPOSE

To determine the potential impact of estrogen status on the pretest and postexercise test diagnostic accuracy of exercise testing.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

The study comprised a total of 234 women and 326 men who underwent exercise testing followed by coronary angiography. We performed incremental logistic regression analysis of pretest (age, symptoms, smoking, diabetes, cholesterol level) with and without estrogen status (defined according to menopausal and oral estrogen status) and exercise test (two ST-segment and three non-ST-segment) variables separately for men and women. Outcomes were assessed by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve area analysis.

RESULTS

Estrogen status was an independent pretest predictor of angiographic coronary disease. Pretest ROC curve areas: women without estrogen status = 0.79, women with estrogen status = 0.85, men = 0.78 (women with estrogen status versus other groups, p < 0.001). Postexercise test ROC curve areas: women without estrogen status = 0.83, women with estrogen status = 0.87, men = 0.88 (women without estrogen status versus other groups, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Consideration of estrogen status allowed for a significant improvement in the pretest clinical diagnosis of coronary disease in women. When these improvements were added to the results of exercise testing, the diagnostic accuracy of the combined clinical and exercise test data was similar for men and women. Estrogen status may be an important diagnostic clinical variable in women with suspected coronary disease.