How cost-effective is breast cancer screening in different EC countries?

Cost effectiveness of breast cancer screening and prevention: a systematic review with a focus on risk-adapted strategies

OBJECTIVES

Benefit and cost effectiveness of breast cancer screening are still matters of controversy. Risk-adapted strategies are proposed to improve its benefit-harm and cost-benefit relations. Our objective was to perform a systematic review on economic breast cancer models evaluating primary and secondary prevention strategies in the European health care setting, with specific focus on model results, model characteristics, and risk-adapted strategies.

METHODS

Literature databases were systematically searched for economic breast cancer models evaluating the cost effectiveness of breast cancer screening and prevention strategies in the European health care context. Characteristics, methodological details and results of the identified studies are reported in evidence tables. Economic model outputs are standardized to achieve comparable cost-effectiveness ratios.

RESULTS

Thirty-two economic evaluations of breast cancer screening and seven evaluations of primary breast cancer prevention were included. Five screening studies and none of the prevention studies considered risk-adapted strategies. Studies differed in methodologic features. Only about half of the screening studies modeled overdiagnosis-related harms, most often indirectly and without reporting their magnitude. All models predict gains in life expectancy and/or quality-adjusted life expectancy at acceptable costs. However, risk-adapted screening was shown to be more effective and efficient than conventional screening.

CONCLUSIONS

Economic models suggest that breast cancer screening and prevention are cost effective in the European setting. All screening models predict gains in life expectancy, which has not yet been confirmed by trials. European models evaluating risk-adapted screening strategies are rare, but suggest that risk-adapted screening is more effective and efficient than conventional screening.

Cost-Effectiveness Models in Breast Cancer Screening in the General Population: A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND

Many Western countries have long-established population-based mammography screening programs. Prior to implementing these programs, decision-analytic modeling was widely used to inform decisions.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to perform a systematic review of cost-effectiveness models in breast cancer screening in the general population to analyze their structural and methodological approaches.

METHODS

A systematic literature search for health economic models was performed in the electronic databases MEDLINE (Ovid), EMBASE, CRD Databases, Cochrane Library, and EconLit in August 2011 with updates in June 2013, April 2015, and November 2016. To assess studies systematically, a standardized form was applied to extract relevant information that was then summarized in evidence tables.

RESULTS

Thirty-five studies were included; 27 state-transition models were analyzed using cohort (n = 12) and individual-level simulation (n = 15). Twenty-one studies modeled the natural history of breast cancer and predicted mortality as a function of the early detection modality. The models employed different assumptions regarding ductal carcinoma in situ. Thirteen studies performed cost-utility analyses with different sources for utility values, but assumptions were often made about utility weights. Twenty-two models did not report any validation.

CONCLUSION

State-transition modeling was the most frequently applied analytic approach. Different methods in modeling the progression of ductal carcinoma in situ to invasive cancer were identified because there is currently no agreement on the biological behavior of noninvasive breast cancer. Main weaknesses were the lack of precise utility estimates and insufficient reporting of validation. Sensitivity analyses of assumptions regarding ductal carcinoma in situ and in particular adequate validation are critical to minimize the risk of biased model outcomes.

Improvement in risk prediction, early detection and prevention of breast cancer in the NHS Breast Screening Programme and family history clinics: a dual cohort study

Background

In the UK, women are invited for 3-yearly mammography screening, through the NHS Breast Screening Programme (NHSBSP), from the ages of 47–50 years to the ages of 69–73 years. Women with family histories of breast cancer can, from the age of 40 years, obtain enhanced surveillance and, in exceptionally high-risk cases, magnetic resonance imaging. However, no NHSBSP risk assessment is undertaken. Risk prediction models are able to categorise women by risk using known risk factors, although accurate individual risk prediction remains elusive. The identification of mammographic breast density (MD) and common genetic risk variants [single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs)] has presaged the improved precision of risk models.

Objectives

To (1) identify the best performing model to assess breast cancer risk in family history clinic (FHC) and population settings; (2) use information from MD/SNPs to improve risk prediction; (3) assess the acceptability and feasibility of offering risk assessment in the NHSBSP; and (4) identify the incremental costs and benefits of risk stratified screening in a preliminary cost-effectiveness analysis.

Design

Two cohort studies assessing breast cancer incidence.

Setting

High-risk FHC and the NHSBSP Greater Manchester, UK.

Participants

A total of 10,000 women aged 20–79 years [Family History Risk Study (FH-Risk); UK Clinical Research Network identification number (UKCRN-ID) 8611] and 53,000 women from the NHSBSP [aged 46–73 years; Predicting the Risk of Cancer At Screening (PROCAS) study; UKCRN-ID 8080].

Interventions

Questionnaires collected standard risk information, and mammograms were assessed for breast density by a number of techniques. All FH-Risk and 10,000 PROCAS participants participated in deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) studies. The risk prediction models Manual method, Tyrer–Cuzick (TC), BOADICEA (Breast and Ovarian Analysis of Disease Incidence and Carrier Estimation Algorithm) and Gail were used to assess risk, with modelling based on MD and SNPs. A preliminary model-based cost-effectiveness analysis of risk stratified screening was conducted.

Main outcome measures

Breast cancer incidence.

Data sources

The NHSBSP; cancer registration.

Results

A total of 446 women developed incident breast cancers in FH-Risk in 97,958 years of follow-up. All risk models accurately stratified women into risk categories. TC had better risk precision than Gail, and BOADICEA accurately predicted risk in the 6268 single probands. The Manual model was also accurate in the whole cohort. In PROCAS, TC had better risk precision than Gail [area under the curve (AUC) 0.58 vs. 0.54], identifying 547 prospective breast cancers. The addition of SNPs in the FH-Risk case–control study improved risk precision but was not useful inBRCA1(breast cancer 1 gene) families. Risk modelling of SNPs in PROCAS showed an incremental improvement from using SNP18 used in PROCAS to SNP67. MD measured by visual assessment score provided better risk stratification than automatic measures, despite wide intra- and inter-reader variability. Using a MD-adjusted TC model in PROCAS improved risk stratification (AUC = 0.6) and identified significantly higher rates (4.7 per 10,000 vs. 1.3 per 10,000;p < 0.001) of high-stage cancers in women with above-average breast cancer risks. It is not possible to provide estimates of the incremental costs and benefits of risk stratified screening because of lack of data inputs for key parameters in the model-based cost-effectiveness analysis.

Conclusions

Risk precision can be improved by using DNA and MD, and can potentially be used to stratify NHSBSP screening. It may also identify those at greater risk of high-stage cancers for enhanced screening. The cost-effectiveness of risk stratified screening is currently associated with extensive uncertainty. Additional research is needed to identify data needed for key inputs into model-based cost-effectiveness analyses to identify the impact on health-care resource use and patient benefits.

Future work

A pilot of real-time NHSBSP risk prediction to identify women for chemoprevention and enhanced screening is required.

Funding

The National Institute for Health Research Programme Grants for Applied Research programme. The DNA saliva collection for SNP analysis for PROCAS was funded by the Genesis Breast Cancer Prevention Appeal.

Mammography screening in less developed countries

Less developed countries (LDCs) are struggling with an increasing burden of breast cancer. It is important to identify what interventions might be most effective and feasible in reducing overall breast cancer mortality in a resource constrained settings. Mammography screening (MS) utilized in developed countries cannot be equally applied to LDCs. We provide a summary of the status of existing and past MS program attempts in LDCs, and try to determine the prerequisites under which any developing country is ready to benefit from a MS program. We make the case for a “mixed” portfolio of tools to reduce breast cancer mortality with MS reserved only for those sub-populations that meet the criteria. We hope our review will provide a background for policy makers to apply rigorous criteria before attempting to implement costly MS program and before judiciously evaluating additional competed programs in their countries.

Simulation models in population breast cancer screening: A systematic review

The aim of this review was to critically evaluate published simulation models for breast cancer screening of the general population and provide a direction for future modeling. A systematic literature search was performed to identify simulation models with more than one application. A framework for qualitative assessment which incorporated model type; input parameters; modeling approach, transparency of input data sources/assumptions, sensitivity analyses and risk of bias; validation, and outcomes was developed. Predicted mortality reduction (MR) and cost-effectiveness (CE) were compared to estimates from meta-analyses of randomized control trials (RCTs) and acceptability thresholds. Seven original simulation models were distinguished, all sharing common input parameters. The modeling approach was based on tumor progression (except one model) with internal and cross validation of the resulting models, but without any external validation. Differences in lead times for invasive or non-invasive tumors, and the option for cancers not to progress were not explicitly modeled. The models tended to overestimate the MR (11-24%) due to screening as compared to optimal RCTs 10% (95% CI - 2-21%) MR. Only recently, potential harms due to regular breast cancer screening were reported. Most scenarios resulted in acceptable cost-effectiveness estimates given current thresholds. The selected models have been repeatedly applied in various settings to inform decision making and the critical analysis revealed high risk of bias in their outcomes. Given the importance of the models, there is a need for externally validated models which use systematical evidence for input data to allow for more critical evaluation of breast cancer screening.

Cost-effectiveness of opportunistic versus organised mammography screening in Switzerland

BACKGROUND

Various centralised mammography screening programmes have shown to reduce breast cancer mortality at reasonable costs. However, mammography screening is not necessarily cost-effective in every situation. Opportunistic screening, the predominant screening modality in several European countries, may under certain circumstances be a cost-effective alternative. In this study, we compared the cost-effectiveness of both screening modalities in Switzerland.

METHODS

Using micro-simulation modelling, we predicted the effects and costs of biennial mammography screening for 50-69 years old women between 1999 and 2020, in the Swiss female population aged 30-70 in 1999. A sensitivity analysis on the test sensitivity of opportunistic screening was performed.

RESULTS

Organised mammography screening with an 80% participation rate yielded a breast cancer mortality reduction of 13%. Twenty years after the start of screening, the predicted annual breast cancer mortality was 25% lower than in a situation without screening. The 3% discounted cost-effectiveness ratio of organised mammography screening was euro11,512 per life year gained. Opportunistic screening with a similar participation rate was comparably effective, but at twice the costs: euro22,671-24,707 per life year gained. This was mainly related to the high costs of opportunistic mammography and frequent use of imaging diagnostics in combination with an opportunistic mammogram.

CONCLUSION

Although data on the performance of opportunistic screening are limited, both opportunistic and organised mammography screening seem effective in reducing breast cancer mortality in Switzerland. However, for opportunistic screening to become equally cost-effective as organised screening, costs and use of additional diagnostics should be reduced.

Transferability of economic evaluations: approaches and factors to consider when using results from one geographic area for another

BACKGROUND

Geographic transferability of economic evaluation data from one country to another has the potential to make a more efficient use of national and international evaluation resources. However, inappropriate transferability of economic data can provide misleading results and lead to an inefficient use of scarce health care resources.

OBJECTIVES

The objective of this study was to review, summarize and categorize the literature on: (i) factors affecting the geographic transferability of economic evaluation data; and (ii) approaches which have either been proposed or used for transferability.

METHODS

A systematic literature review on transferability was conducted. Electronic databases, hand searching and bibliographic searching techniques were utilized. Inclusion criteria for the review included conceptual or empirical papers with mention of factors affecting, or approaches for, transferability of economic evaluation data across geographic locations. Exclusion criteria included papers published prior to 1966, non-English language papers, pure science studies and animal studies. Three databases were involved in the primary search: Ovid MEDLINE, EMBASE, and CINAHL. In addition to the primary search, the Heath Economic Evaluation Database (OHE HEED), the NHS EED database and the EconLit databases were searched. Transferability factors were classified into major and minor categories, a classification of alternative transferability approaches was developed, and the number of empirical studies was catalogued according to this classification.

RESULTS

There is a substantial amount of literature on factors potentially affecting transferability. Based on these papers we identified 77 factors and subsequently developed a classification system which grouped these factors into five broad categories based on characteristics of the patient, the disease, the provider, the health care system and methodological conventions. Another 40 studies were identified which attempted to transfer economic evaluation data from one country to another and these were classified according to the sources for clinical efficacy, resource utilization and unit cost data.

CONCLUSIONS

There is strong evidence indicating that transferability of economic evaluation data is a difficult and complex task. Approaches which have been used for transferability suggest that, at a minimum, there is a need for country-specific substitution of practice pattern data as well as unit cost data. A limitation of this review relates to the lack of empirical studies which prevents stronger conclusions regarding which transferability factors are most important to consider and under which circumstances.

A methodology to evaluate differential costs of full field digital as compared to conventional screen film mammography in a clinical setting

PURPOSE

The use of full field digital mammography (FFDM) in alternative to conventional screen film mammography (SFM) in the current practice is delayed by the high costs of FFDM. The present study, performed at the Centro per lo Studio e la Prevenzione Oncologica of Florence, using both FFDM and SFM, was aimed at estimating the impact of introducing the new FFDM technique on overall mammography costs.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

We estimated the differential costs of both methods, based on real expenditures, as provided by the administrative department, and on radiologists, radiographers and other staff's working time. Two different workload scenarios (5000 and 10,000 tests/year per mammography equipment) were considered. Common costs of both techniques were censored for study purpose.

RESULTS

Beside a higher cost due to purchase and hire/leasing costs of equipment, FFDM implies a greater workload for radiologists (reading time almost doubled). SFM implies a greater workload for the administrative staff to run the archive and for loading/unloading films of the roller viewer, whereas no different workload has been observed for radiographers. Overall FFDM costs 24.22-26.46 for examination more than SFM for the 5000 tests scenario and 9.91-12.15 more for the 10,000 tests scenario.

DISCUSSION

Although present study estimates cannot easily be generalised to any local setting, the model for cost calculation is easy to be exported to another scenario by applying different local parameters. The advantages made available by FFDM (computerised data recording, tele-transmission, tele-reporting, tele-consulting, automatic display on monitor of previous exams and use of CAD) may justify the higher cost, but a limited reduction in purchase and assistance costs could easily allow a turnover, with FFDM being more convenient than SFM even on the cost side.

Comparison of early performance indicators for screening projects within the European Breast Cancer Network: 1989–2000

In 1989 the European Breast Cancer Network (EBCN) was established by the first pilot projects for breast cancer screening, co-funded by the Europe Against Cancer programme. We report early performance indicators for these EBCN projects while taking into account their organizational setting. Out of 17 projects in the network, 10 projects from six European countries contributed aggregated data on number of invitations, screening examinations, and breast cancers detected over the period 1989-2000. Results were summarized separately for projects in centralized versus decentralized health care environments. The European Guidelines for quality assurance in mammography screening provided reference values for the performance indicators. The most prominent finding in this study was the higher participation rate in centralized versus decentralized projects (average participation in 1998: 74 versus 33%; P<0.001), whereas the invitation system and screening policy in these projects were similar. Detection rates and characteristics of cancers detected at initial and subsequent screening examinations showed no significant differences between centralized and decentralized projects. Even though early performance indicators for centralized versus decentralized projects were similar, the impact of breast screening on mortality from this disease at the population level will differ since the decentralized projects reach only part of the target population.

A Model-Based Comparison of Breast Cancer Screening Strategies: Mammograms and Clinical Breast Examinations

In screening for secondary prevention of breast cancer, clinical breast examination (CBE) combined with mammography may improve overall screening sensitivity compared with mammography alone. A systematic evaluation of the relative expenses and projected benefit of combining these two screening modalities is not presently available. We addressed this issue using a microsimulation model incorporating age-specific preclinical duration of the disease, age-specific sensitivities of the two modalities, age-specific incidence of the disease, screening strategy, and competing causes of mortality. We examined a total of 48 screening strategies, depending on the age range, the examination interval, and whether mammography or CBE is given at every one or two exam. Our results indicate that a biennial mammography can be cost-effective if coupled with annual CBE. For each screening interval and starting age, giving mammography every two exams and CBE at every exam has the lowest marginal cost per year of quality-adjusted life saved, whereas giving both at every exam has the highest. Comparing annual mammography and CBE to biennial mammography and annual CBE from 50 to 79, the total cost was reduced by 35%, whereas the marginal quality-adjusted life years only decreased by 12%. Similar reductions are observed for other starting ages. It is cost-effective to have a biennial mammography if coupled with an annual CBE. Annual mammography combined with CBE every 6 months will lead to a 41% increase in the quality-adjusted life years compared with annual mammography and CBE from 50 to 79, whereas the total cost increases by 30%.

Trends in the usage of adjuvant systemic therapy for breast cancer in the Netherlands and its effect on mortality

Adjuvant systemic therapy was introduced in the Netherlands as a breast cancer treatment in the early 1980s. In this paper, we describe the trends in the usage of adjuvant systemic treatment in the period 1975-1997 in the Netherlands. The main aim of our study was to assess the effects of adjuvant tamoxifen and polychemotherapy on breast cancer mortality, compared to the effects of the mammography screening programme. The computer simulation model MIcrosimulation SCreening ANalysis, which simulates demography, natural history of breast cancer and screening effects, was used to estimate the effects. Use of adjuvant therapy increased over time, but since 1990 it remained rather stable. Nowadays, adjuvant therapy is given to 88% of node-positive patients aged 50-69 years, while less than 10% of node-negative patients receive any kind of adjuvant treatment. Adjuvant treatment is given independent of the mode of detection (adjusted by nodal status and size). We predict that the reduction in breast cancer mortality due to adjuvant therapy is 7% in women aged 55-74 years, while the reduction due to screening, which was first implemented in women aged 50-69 years in 1990-97, will be 28-30% in 2007. In conclusion, although adjuvant systemic therapy can reduce breast cancer mortality rates, it is anticipated to be less than the mortality reduction caused by mammography screening.

Cancer imaging: is it cost-effective?

With expenditure on imaging patients with cancer set to increase in line with rising cancer prevalence, there is a need to demonstrate the cost-effectiveness of advanced cancer imaging techniques. Cost-effectiveness studies aim to quantify the cost of providing a service relative to the amount of desirable outcome gained, such as improvements in patient survival. Yet, the impact of imaging on the survival of patients with cancer is small compared to the impact of treatment and is therefore hard to measure directly. Hence, techniques such as decision-tree analysis, that model the impact of imaging on survival, are increasingly used for cost-effectiveness evaluations. Using such techniques, imaging strategies that utilise computed tomography, magnetic resonance imaging and positron emission tomography have been shown to be more cost-effective than non-imaging approaches for the management of certain cancers including lung, prostate and lymphoma. There is stronger evidence to support the cost-effectiveness of advanced cancer imaging for diagnosis, staging and monitoring therapy than for screening. The results of cost-effectiveness evaluations are not directly transferable between countries or tumour types and hence more studies are needed. As many of the techniques developed to assess the evidence base for therapeutic modalities are not readily applicable to diagnostic tests, cancer imaging specialists need to define the methods for health technology assessment that are most appropriate to their speciality.

A decision chart for assessing and improving the transferability of economic evaluation results between countries

OBJECTIVE

To develop a user-friendly tool for managing the transfer of economic evaluation results.

METHODS

Factors that may influence the transfer of health economic study results were systematically identified and the way they impact on transferability was investigated. A transferability decision chart was developed that includes: knock-out criteria; a checklist based on the transferability factors; and methods for improving transferability and for assessing the uncertainty of transferred results. This approach was tested on various international cost-effectiveness studies in the areas of interventional cardiology, vaccination and screening.

RESULTS

The transfer of study results is possible pending the outcomes of the transferability check and necessary adjustments. Transferability factors can be grouped into areas of methodological, healthcare system and population characteristics. Different levels of effort are required for analysis of factors, ranging from very low (e.g. discount rate) to very high (e.g. practice variation). The impact of differences of most transferability factors can be estimated via the key health economic determinants: capacity utilisation, effectiveness, productivity loss and returns to scale. Depending on the outcomes of the transferability check a correction of the study results for inflation and for differences related to currencies or purchasing power might be sufficient. Otherwise, modelling-based adjustments might be necessary, requiring the (re-)building and sometimes structural modification of the study model. For determination of the most essential adjustments, a univariate sensitivity analysis seems appropriate. If not all relevant study parameters can be substituted with country-specific ones, multivariate or probabilistic sensitivity analysis seems to be a promising way to quantify the uncertainty associated with a transfer. If study results cannot be transferred, the transfer of study models or designs should be investigated as this can significantly save time when conducting a new study.

CONCLUSIONS

Our transferability decision chart is a transparent and user-friendly tool for assessing and improving the transferability of economic evaluation results. A state of the art description of the methodology in a study, providing detailed components for calculation, is not only essential for determining its transferability but also for improving it via modelling adjustments.

Building a model to determine the cost-effectiveness of breast cancer screening in France

This paper describes the methods and initial validation of a cost-effectiveness model developed to simulate the breast cancer screening situation in France. The first screening pilot programmes were set up in France in 1989 to test the feasibility of a decentralized screening model based in a large number of existing non-dedicated radiology centres. The present cost-effectiveness model was built as a tool to help guide current policy discussions on the future of screening in France. This Markov model compares the costs and effects expected when a screening programme is offered to a given cohort of women to those expected in the absence of screening. The model was initially validated using current results from the Bas-Rhin screening programme and local cancer registry epidemiological data. Over a 20-year period, 315 274 women would attend for screening, of whom 12 491 would be recalled for further assessment. 4423 cancers would be detected, resulting in 637 deaths. Screening allows the detection of 106 additional cancer cases, thereby preventing 92 deaths, and saves 1522 life-years compared with a situation without screening. Breast cancer mortality is reduced by 12.6%, yielding a cost-effectiveness ratio of 137 000 FF per life-year saved. The results of initial analyses suggest that the model is capable of suitably assessing the impact of breast cancer screening in terms of costs and effects. Further scenario analyses are needed to understand the impact of screening policy changes on the costs and effectiveness of future screening programmes.

Federation of European Cancer Societies. Full report. Economic evaluation in cancer care: questions and answers on how to alleviate conflicts between rising needs and expectations and tightening budgets

All Western countries have experienced a fast growth in their healthcare expenses over recent decades. It is expected that pressure for such growth will continue in the future. But spending an ever larger share of our nation's resources on healthcare cannot be afforded. As a consequence, making choices will become more and more inevitable, even in cancer care. Economic evaluation is a very supportive tool for such decisions. This position statement concludes with recommendations for providers and healthcare policy-makers, to safeguard and further improve good clinical decision making and healthcare policy in cancer care under tightening budgets.

Breast cancer screening; cost-effective in practice?

The main aim of national breast screening is a reduction in breast cancer mortality. The data on the reduction in breast cancer mortality from three (of the five) Swedish trials in particular gave rise to the expectation that the Dutch programme of 2-yearly screening for women aged 50-70 would produce a 16% reduction in the total population. In all likelihood, many of the years of life gained as a result of screening are enjoyed in good health. According to its critics the actual benefit that can be achieved from the national breast cancer screening programmes is overstated. Considerable benefits have recently been demonstrated in England and Wales. However, the fall was so considerable in such a relatively short space of time that screening (started in 1987) was thought to only have played a small part. As far as the Dutch screening programme is concerned it is still too early to reach any conclusions about a possible reduction in mortality. The first short-term results of the screening are favourable and as good as (or better than) expectations. In Swedish regions where mammographic screening was introduced, a 19% reduction in breast cancer mortality can be estimated at population level, and recently a 20% reduction was presented in the UK. In countries where women are expected to make appointments for screening themselves, the attendance figures are significantly lower and the quality of the process as a whole is sometimes poorer. The benefits of breast cancer screening need to be carefully balanced against the burden to women and to the health care system. Mass breast screening requires many resources and will be a costly service. Cost-effectiveness of a breast cancer screening programme can be estimated using a computer model. Published cost-effectiveness ratios may differ tremendously, but are often the result of different types of calculation, time periods considered, including or excluding downstream cost. The approach of simulation and estimation is here the same for all countries. The effects of a breast-screening program depend on many factors, such as the epidemiology of the disease, the health care system, costs of health care, the quality of the screening programme and the attendance rate. The estimated CE-ratio ranges from 2650 euros per life-year gained in Navarra to 9650 in Germany. Although relatively low incidence levels expected, the CE-ratio in Navarra is most favourable probably due to a relatively unfavourable clinical stage distribution before screening and the increasing incidence. The UK has a screening situation that is almost similar with the Netherlands. Therefore, the CE-ratios of both countries are comparable. The differences between countries make it impossible to set up one uniform screening policy. The theoretical outcomes of the benefit that can be achieved are generally from small-scale trials involving a limited number of experts, persons examined, and areas. On a national scale, with hundreds of professional practitioners, it can be expected to be more difficult to attain uniform quality. Continuous quality control, monitoring and evaluation are therefore crucial.

The cost-effectiveness of nationwide breast carcinoma screening in Finland, 1987-1992

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness, from a societal perspective, of the Finnish nationwide breast carcinoma screening program.

METHODS

The effects were measured in life-years saved from 1987 to 2020, using data from the nationwide program to the end of 1992. A total of 90,000 women ages 50-59 were invited for screening during the years 1987-89. The total number of participants screened was 76,000. The screening interval was 24 months, with follow-up to the end of 1992. From the beginning of 1993, the estimation model used parameters based on published studies and national cancer statistics. Data on health care and non-health care costs and time costs were obtained from internal accounts of screening units, published studies, national statistics, health market sources, and a questionnaire completed by a sample of 1400 screening attendees. The discount rate, the annual rate of time preference over future costs and life-years saved, was 3%. The main outcome measure was the cost per life-year saved.

RESULTS

The estimated number of life-years of life saved was 578, of which 8% occurred 1987-1992. The estimated life-years saved per 1000 screenings was 3.2. The total costs were $11 million in U.S. dollars, i.e., $14.3 million per 100,000 participants.

CONCLUSIONS

The cost of breast carcinoma mammographic screening per life-year saved was $18,955 in the base case, ranging from $15,502 to $40,308 according to the different models used in analysis.

The role of urine cytology in the assessment of lower urinary tract symptoms

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the role of urine cytology in the investigation of men with lower urinary tract symptoms (LUTS) in the absence of haematuria.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

The study comprised 336 men attending a LUTS assessment clinic, who had neither macroscopic nor microscopic haematuria. One sample of urine was collected for cytology. Those with suspicious urine cytology were investigated with intravenous urography and cystoscopy.

RESULTS

Five men had abnormal urine cytology results; on further investigation one of them was found to have carcinoma in situ (CIS) and one to have a transitional cell carcinoma. Three had false-positive urine cytology results.

CONCLUSION

A bladder tumour or CIS was detected in 0.6% of the population tested. The cost per cancer diagnosed was GB pound 2020. Urine cytology is a simple noninvasive way of assisting accurate diagnosis of men who have LUTS in the absence of haematuria.

Breast cancer screening by mammography in Norway. Is it cost-effective?

BACKGROUND

Mammography screening is a promising method for improving prognosis in breast cancer.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

In this economic analysis, data from the Norwegian Mammography Project (NMP), the National Health Administration (NMA) and the Norwegian Medical Association (NMA) were employed in a model for cost-effectiveness analysis. According to the annual report of the NMP for 1996, 60,147 women aged 50-69 years had been invited to a two-yearly mammographic screening programme 46,329 (77%) had been screened and 337 (0.7%) breast cancers had been revealed. The use of breast conserving surgery (BCS) was in this study estimated raised by 17% due to screening, the breast cancer mortality decreased by 30% and the number of life years saved per prevented breast cancer death was calculated 15 years.

RESULTS

The cost per woman screened was calculated 75.4 Pounds, the cost per cancer detected 10.365 Pounds and the cost per life year (LY) saved 8.561 Pounds. A raised frequency of BCS, diagnosis and adjuvant chemotherapy brought two years forward, follow-up costs and costs/savings due to prevented breast cancer deaths were all included in the analysis. A sensitivity analysis documented mammography screening cost-effective in Norway when four to nine years are gained per prevented breast cancer death.

CONCLUSION

Mammography screening in Norway looks cost-effective. Time has come to encourage national screening programmes.

Cost effectiveness of shortening screening interval or extending age range of NHS breast screening programme: computer simulation study

OBJECTIVE

To compare the cost effectiveness of two possible modifications to the current UK screening programme: shortening the screening interval from three to two years and extending the age of invitation to a final screen from 64 to 69.

DESIGN

Computer simulation model which first simulates life histories for women in the absence of a screening programme for breast cancer and then assesses how these life histories would be changed by introducing different screening policies. The model was informed by screening and cost data from the NHS breast screening programme.

SETTING

North West region of England.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Numbers of deaths prevented, life years gained, and costs.

RESULTS

Compared with the current breast screening programme both modifications would increase the number of deaths prevented and the number of life years saved. The current screening policy costs 2522 pounds per life year gained; extending the age range of the programme would cost 2612 pounds and shortening the interval 2709 pounds per life year gained. The marginal cost per life year gained of extending the age range of the screening programme is 2990 pounds and of shortening the screening interval is 3545 pounds.

CONCLUSIONS

If the budget for the NHS breast screening programme were to allow for two more invitations per woman, substantial mortality reductions would follow from extending the age range screened or reducing the screening interval. The difference between the two policies is so small that either could be chosen.

Economic analyses of radiological procedures: a methodological evaluation of the medical literature

OBJECTIVE

Increasing pressure to curb health care costs has led to considerable interest in economic analyses, including both cost-effectiveness and cost-benefit analyses. Numerous economic analyses of radiological procedures have appeared in both the radiology and non-radiology literature. The objective of this study was to evaluate the methodological quality of economic analyses of radiological procedures published in the non-radiology medical literature during the years 1990 1995.

METHODS

Original investigations from the medical (non-radiological) literature that include economic analyses of radiological interventions were identified from a computerized literature search. Each economic analysis article was evaluated by two independent reviewers for adherence to ten methodological criteria. The criteria were derived from review of the medical and radiological economic analysis methodology literature and consisted of the following: (1) Comparative options stated; (2) perspective of analysis defined; (3) outcome measure identified; (4) cost data included; (5) source of cost data stated; (6) long term costs included; (7) discounting employed; (8) summary measure provided; (9) incremental computation method used; and (10) sensitivity analysis performed. The results were compared to a previous study that evaluated the radiological literature.

RESULTS

Of the 56 articles in the medical literature that included economic analyses of radiological procedures, only eight (14%) conformed to all ten methodological criteria. The cost data (98%) and comparative options (89%) criteria exhibited high compliance, while the perspective of analysis (25%) and discounting (32%) criteria had relatively low compliance. Agreement between the reviewers was excellent (kappa = 0.88).

CONCLUSIONS

Published economic analyses of radiology procedures usually do not meet accepted methodological standards.

Epidemiology and potential for prevention of abdominal aortic aneurysm

BACKGROUND

Ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) is a common cause of death which is preventable by elective repair of an asymptomatic AAA.

METHODS

The literature was reviewed with emphasis on epidemiological studies and population-based screening surveys.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSION

The prevalence of small AAA ranges between 3 and 8 per cent. The incidence of asymptomatic AAA seems to be increasing, although exact incidence estimates vary. The most important risk factors for AAA are male sex, age, family history and smoking. Hypertension is associated with a mildly increased risk, but diabetes is not associated with any increase. Primary prevention of AAA is not a realistic option. There is no evidence of an effective medical treatment to prevent growth of small AAAs, although trials with propranolol are under way. The only intervention to prevent death from aneurysm is elective repair of the asymptomatic lesion. Screening for asymptomatic AAA can reduce the incidence of rupture. However, further studies are needed to determine the cost effectiveness of screening compared with that of other health programmes.

Quantitative estimates of the impact of sensitivity and specificity in mammographic screening in Germany

STUDY OBJECTIVE

To estimate quantitatively the impact of the quality of mammographic screening (in terms of sensitivity and specificity) on the effects and costs of nationwide breast cancer screening.

DESIGN

Three plausible "quality" scenarios for a biennial breast cancer screening programme for women aged 50-69 in Germany were analysed in terms of costs and effects using the Microsimulation Screening Analysis model on breast cancer screening and the natural history of breast cancer. Firstly, sensitivity and specificity in the expected situation (or "baseline" scenario) were estimated from a model based analysis of empirical data from 35,000 screening examinations in two German pilot projects. In the second "high quality" scenario, these properties were based on the more favourable diagnostic results from breast cancer screening projects and the nationwide programme in The Netherlands. Thirdly, a worst case, "low quality" hypothetical scenario with a 25% lower sensitivity than that experienced in The Netherlands was analysed.

SETTING

The epidemiological and social situation in Germany in relation to mass screening for breast cancer.

RESULTS

In the "baseline" scenario, an 11% reduction in breast cancer mortality was expected in the total German female population, ie 2100 breast cancer deaths would be prevented per year. It was estimated that the "high quality" scenario, based on Dutch experience, would lead to the prevention of an additional 200 deaths per year and would also cut the number of false positive biopsy results by half. The cost per life year gained varied from Deutsche mark (DM) 15,000 on the "high quality" scenario to DM 21,000 in the "low quality" setting.

CONCLUSIONS

Up to 20% of the total costs of a screening programme can be spent on quality improvement in order to achieve a substantially higher reduction in mortality and reduce undesirable side effects while retaining the same cost effectiveness ratio as that estimated from the German data.

Equity in the access to mammography in Spain

The purpose of this study is to measure the access to mammography of women aged 40-70 in Spain and to analyze the factors related to access to the test. Women were considered to have access to mammography if they have received at least one mammogram in the preceding 2 years. Numerous studies have shown that breast cancer mortality is reduced in women receiving periodic mammography, although experts disagree about the most appropriate age range for screening. An equitable health care system should provide access to effective procedures to all persons who need them. A number of factors influencing the access to mammography have been described. We conducted a cross-sectional population-based survey of 3218 women residing in Spain who were between 40 and 70 years of age. The sample was selected using a multi-stage stratified cluster technique, with proportional assignment to each stratum. Data collection took place between March and May 1994 by means of individual oral interviews using a standardized questionnaire. The questionnaire included information on the dependent variable (mammography use) and the independent variable (those potentially associated with access to the test). Information on other independent variables was collected in official institutions or from existing publications. Data analysis consisted of univariate and multivariate analyses. Only about 28% of all women had received a mammogram in the last 2 years. According to the univariate analysis, access to mammography is most strongly associated with number of gynaecologist visits, residence in the autonomous community of Navarre, and physician referral for mammography. In the multivariate analysis, the factors most strongly associated with access to mammography are gynaecologist visits at least once in the last 2 years (OR = 8.71; CI = 6.84-11.10), existence of a breast cancer screening programme (OR = 7.64; CI = 5.24-11.10), and physician referral for testing (OR = 4.78; CI = 3.83-5.96). The multivariate analysis also showed a significant association with place of residence and with women's attitudes about testing. A small proportion of Spanish women who could potentially benefit from mammography have received the test in the last 2 years. Establishing breast cancer screening programs equitably throughout the nation, and carrying out educational interventions aimed at women and especially at physicians, will help to reduce inequalities and increase the access to mammography in Spain.

Health education to improve repeat participation in the Dutch breast cancer screening programme: evaluation of a leaflet tailored to previous participants

Participation in breast cancer screening programmes often declines in the course of the programme. The purpose of the present study was to examine whether health education could diminish the amount of drop-outs between two screening rounds. The health education was tailored to women who previously underwent mammography. Based on the Elaboration Likelihood Model two versions of the tailored leaflet were made: a simple version and a version with additional peripheral cues. In an experimental study among 2961 women the effects of the tailored leaflets on reparticipation were tested against a standard leaflet. Re-participation rates were high (> 90%) and did not differ between the 3 groups. No significant differences regarding beliefs about re-participating were found between the 3 groups. Results indicate that the tailored information leaflets did not enhance re-participation. Therefore, the required additional efforts and costs do not seem to be justified. The results of the study provide indications that less painful mammograms and friendly staff might improve re-participation.

Economic evaluation and health care decision-making

The current role of economic appraisal in health policy and medical practice is outlined, emphasizing the pharmaceutical sector where developments are most marked. General health policy in the Netherlands and pharmaceutical policy in Australia are presented as examples of how economic appraisal may diffuse further as a decision-support tool for health authorities. This can be promoted by studying how policy-makers interpret and use results of economic evaluation studies and how the international transferability of information on the cost-effectiveness profiles of health technologies can be enhanced. To be relevant for health policy, results from economic appraisal studies must be valid and reliable, relevant to the policy context and communicated to the proper decision-makers. A number of recommendations are provided for economic appraisals to meet such requirements.

Cost of care of patients with cystic fibrosis in The Netherlands in 1990-1

BACKGROUND

Research on the cost of care of patients with cystic fibrosis is scarce. The aim of this study was to estimate the costs using age-specific medical consumption from real patient data.

METHODS

The age-specific medical consumption of patients with cystic fibrosis in The Netherlands in 1991 was estimated from a survey of medical records and a patient questionnaire. A distinction was made between costs of hospital care, hospital and non-hospital medication, and home care. Costs per year were obtained by multiplying the yearly amount of care and the costs per unit.

RESULTS

On average the annual cost of a patient with cystic fibrosis in 1991 was 10,908 pounds (hospital care 42%, medication 37%, home care 20%). The cost of care of cystic fibrosis in The Netherlands, with approximately 1000 patients, is estimated at 10.9 million pounds per year, which is 0.07% of the total health care budget. The cost of care of a patient up to the age of 35 is estimated at 614,587 pounds. When year-to-year survival is taken into account and future costs are discounted to the year of birth with a yearly discount rate of 5%, the cost of care of a patient with cystic fibrosis is estimated at 164,365 pounds for 1991. This estimate will be used in a prospective evaluation of screening for cystic fibrosis carriers.

CONCLUSIONS

The cost of care of patients with cystic fibrosis estimated by age-specific medical consumption of real patients is higher than that estimated by non-age-specific medical consumption and/or expert opinions.

Future prospects of population-based mammographic screening

Mammographic screening is one worthwhile way of reducing deaths from breast cancer among women diagnosed in ages 50-69. Our knowledge is less clear for women below 50 and above 70. Major research issues include whether by new approaches we can achieve a definitive mortality reduction in women under 50 and investigations of the efficacy of screening in the elderly. The optimal interval time has yet to be decided. When screening is taken to previously unscreened populations, effects on many parameters have to be followed, e.g., sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, gains, and costs. We do not as yet know what the implications of finding large numbers of women with in situ cancer are. Keeping high standards in population-based programs also means fighting potential drawbacks: minimizing the proportion of "unnecessary" biopsies and anxiety, avoiding over-treatment of cancers with excellent prognosis, preventing false reassurance or that women with suspicious findings are left without advice. Potential drawbacks of screening are best dealt with within a team of specialists on breast cancer diagnosis and treatment. Mammographic screening has become widely accepted as one important way of reducing breast cancer deaths, and this success has been dependent on the fact that its development has been science driven. To continue to develop, the tradition of critical evaluation and unsentimental bold testing of new ideas has to be carried on.

Measurement of the costs in two mammographic screening programmes in the province of Florence, Italy

OBJECTIVES

To estimate and to compare the cost per woman examined and per breast cancer detected in two mammographic screening programmes in the province of Florence.

SETTING

Two ongoing, population based, mammographic screening programmes in the province of Florence. The first (district project) was started in the seventies in a rural area, whereas the second (city project) was started in the city at the end of 1990.

METHODS

All relevant resources consumed by the programmes (costs) were listed and measured. The costs are related to 1993. The unit cost for each phase (recruitment, screening, assessment) of the screening process was estimated by dividing the total cost of the phase by the number of women examined. The cost per cancer detected was obtained by dividing the total cost of the programme by the number of cancers detected at screening.

RESULTS

The costs per woman examined were $38.1 and $41.1 in the district and city programmes respectively. The cost per breast cancer detected was $7424 in the district programme and $5180 in the city programme. Staff accounted for more than 50% of the total cost. The unit cost in the screening phase was higher in the district programme, whereas it was lower in the assessment phase.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results are consistent with, although slightly lower than, published estimates of the cost per woman screened. Important parameters for determining the efficiency of a mammographic screening programme are the compliance rate and the recall rate.

Prediction of the effects and costs of breast-cancer screening in Germany

Although breast-cancer screening programmes are now being introduced it is still debated whether this is an appropriate policy for all European countries. Taking into account empirical data from 2 regional pilot screening projects, this study has evaluated the effects and costs of a nationwide breast-cancer screening programme in Germany. Special attention was paid to the decentralized German health-care system and to the influence of attendance, interval and age group. The recent results of the analysis of the Swedish randomized screening trials were used to estimate the improvement in prognosis after early detection of breast cancer. Our analysis shows that a programme providing for the screening of women aged 50-69 at 2-year intervals might be expected to result in a decrease in mortality from breast cancer estimated at 11% for the total German population, representing 2,100 deaths from breast cancer prevented each year. The cost per life-year gained was assessed at between DM 18,800 and DM 25,300 for this scenario; 2 to 3 times less favourable than in the UK and The Netherlands. The sensitivity of mammography was estimated to be 12% lower than in The Netherlands and the attendance rate was calculated at 47% on average. A greater effort to ensure the quality of the screening programme and to improve the invitation system might finally lead to much better results. The mortality reduction might be as much as 18% if the attendance and the sensitivity of the screening could be improved to the Dutch level.