Assessing the value of incorporating a polygenic risk score with non-genetic factors for predicting breast cancer diagnosis in the UK Biobank

BACKGROUND

Previous studies have demonstrated that incorporating a polygenic risk score (PRS) to existing risk prediction models for breast cancer improves model fit, but to determine its clinical utility the impact on risk categorisation needs to be established. We add a PRS to two well-established models and quantify the difference in classification using the net reclassification improvement (NRI).

METHODS

We analysed data from 126,490 post-menopausal women of "White British" ancestry, aged 40-69 years at baseline from the UK Biobank prospective cohort. The breast cancer outcome was derived from linked registry data and hospital records. We combined a PRS for breast cancer with 10-year risk scores from the Tyrer-Cuzick and Gail models, and compared these to the risk scores from the models using phenotypic variables alone. We report metrics of discrimination and classification, and consider the importance of the risk threshold selected.

RESULTS

The Harrell's C statistic of the 10-year risk from the Tyrer-Cuzick and Gail models was 0.57 and 0.54, respectively, increasing to 0.67 when the PRS was included. Inclusion of the PRS gave a positive NRI for cases in both models (0.080 (95% confidence interval: 0.053, 0.104) and 0.051 (95% CI: 0.030, 0.073), respectively), with negligible impact on controls.

CONCLUSIONS

The addition of a PRS for breast cancer to the well-established Tyrer-Cuzick and Gail models provides a substantial improvement in the prediction accuracy and risk stratification.

IMPACT

These findings could have important implications for the ongoing discussion about the value of PRS in risk prediction models and screening.

Long-term prediction by DNA methylation of high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia: Results of the ARTISTIC cohort

Methylation markers have shown potential for triaging high-risk HPV-positive (hrHPV+) women to identify those at increased risk of invasive cervical cancer (ICC). Our aim was to assess the performance of the S5 DNA methylation classifier for predicting incident high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) and ICC among hrHPV+ women in the ARTISTIC screening trial cohort. The S5 classifier, comprising target regions of tumour suppressor gene EPB41L3 and L1 and L2 regions of HPV16, HPV18, HPV31, and HPV33, was assayed by pyrosequencing in archived hrHPV+ liquid-based samples from 343 women with high-grade disease (139 CIN2, 186 CIN3, and 18 ICC) compared to 800 hrHPV+ controls. S5 DNA methylation correlated directly with increasing severity of disease and inversely with lead time to diagnosis. S5 could discriminate between hrHPV+ women who developed CIN3 or ICC and hrHPV+ controls (p <.0001) using samples taken on average 5 years before diagnosis. This relationship was independent of cytology at baseline. The S5 test showed much higher sensitivity than HPV16/18 genotyping for identifying prevalent CIN3 (93% vs. 61%, p = .01) but lower specificity (50% vs. 66%, p <.0001). The S5 classifier identified most women at high risk of developing precancer and missed very few prevalent advanced lesions thus appearing to be an objective test for triage of hrHPV+ women. The combination of methylation of host and HPV genes enables S5 to combine the predictive power of methylation with HPV genotyping to identify hrHPV-positive women who are at highest risk of developing CIN3 and ICC in the future.

Comparing the performance of 2 human papillomavirus assays for a new use indication: a real-world evidence-based evaluation in the United States

BACKGROUND

The US Food and Drug Administration supports innovations to facilitate new indications for high-risk human papillomavirus testing. This report describes the retrospective testing of stored specimens and analysis of existing data to efficiently and cost-effectively support a new indication for the Onclarity human papillomavirus assay (Becton, Dickinson and Company, BD Life Sciences - Integrated Diagnostic Solutions, Sparks, MD). The performance of this index test was compared with that of a predicate test, the cobas human papillomavirus assay (Roche Diagnostics, Indianapolis, IN). Both human papillomavirus assays are based on real-time polymerase chain reaction platforms that detect the presence of 14 high-risk human papillomavirus genotypes. The predicate assay reports human papillomavirus types 16 and 18 as individual results and the other 12 human papillomavirus genotypes as 1 pooled result. The index assay reports 9 independent results (human papillomavirus types 16, 18, 31, 33/58, 35/39/68, 45, 51, 52, and 56/59/66). Both the index and predicate assays are approved by the Food and Drug Administration for cervical cancer screening, but at the time that this study was initiated, the index human papillomavirus assay was not approved for use with cervical specimens collected in PreservCyt (Hologic, Inc, San Diego, CA) liquid-based cytology media.

OBJECTIVE

The performance of the index human papillomavirus assay was compared with that of the predicate human papillomavirus assay for the detection of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grades 2 or greater and 3 or greater (≥CIN2 or ≥CIN3) using PreservCyt liquid-based cytology specimens collected from women aged 21 to 65 years. In addition, the ability of the index test's extended genotyping to stratify ≥CIN2 and ≥CIN3 risks, using these specimens, was evaluated.

STUDY DESIGN

The New Mexico HPV Pap Registry was used to select an age- and cytology-stratified random sample of 19,879 women undergoing opportunistic cervical screening and follow-up in routine clinical practice across New Mexico. A subset (n = 4820) of PreservCyt specimens was selected from 19,879 women for paired testing by the index and predicate human papillomavirus assays within age and cytology strata and included women with or without cervical biopsy follow-up. Point estimate differences and ratios were calculated for cervical disease detection and positivity rates, respectively, with 95% confidence intervals to determine statistical significance. The cumulative risk of ≥CIN2 or ≥CIN3, with up to 5-year follow-up, was estimated for the index assay using Kaplan-Meier methods.

RESULTS

The 5-year cumulative ≥CIN3 detection rates were 5.6% for the index assay and 4.6% for the predicate assay (difference, 1.0%; 95% confidence interval, 0.5%-1.5%). The ≥CIN3 positivity rates within <1 year were 95.3% for the index assay and 94.5% for the predicate assay (ratio, 1.01; 95% confidence interval, 0.98-1.06). The ≥CIN3 cumulative positivity rates for the index and predicate assays were also similar at 5 years. Among cases of ≥CIN3, the positive agreement rates between the index and predicate assays for human papillomavirus types 16 and 18 were 100.0% (95% confidence interval, 95.0%-100.0%) and 90.9% (95% confidence interval, 62.3%-98.4%), respectively. Human papillomavirus type 16 carried the highest ≥CIN2 or ≥CIN3 risk, followed by human papillomavirus types 18/31/33/58/52/45 and human papillomavirus types 35/56/59/51/56/59/66.

CONCLUSION

The index and predicate human papillomavirus assays demonstrated equivalent performance, and extended human papillomavirus genotyping, using the index assay, provided effective ≥CIN2 and ≥CIN3 risk stratification, supporting a new indication for use of the index assay with PreservCyt.

Body composition changes during breast cancer preventive treatment with anastrozole: Findings from the IBIS-II trial

Background

Uptake to anastrozole for breast cancer prevention is low, partly due to women's concerns about side effects including gains in weight and specifically gains in body fat. Previous evidence does not link anastrozole with gains in weight, but there is a lack of data on any effects on body composition i.e. changes in fat and fat free mass. Here we assess association of anastrozole with body composition changes in a prospective sub-study from the second international breast intervention trial (IBIS-II).

Methods

Participants had DXA scans at baseline and for five years of anastrozole/placebo and beyond (between March 2004 and September 2017. Primary outcomes were changes in body weight, body fat and fat free mass at 9-18 months. A linear model was used to estimate the size of a differential effect in these outcomes by randomised treatment allocation adjusted for baseline value and time since last scan, age, 10-year breast cancer risk, smoking and HRT status.

Results

203 postmenopausal women were recruited (n = 95 anastrozole, n = 108 placebo), mean age 58 years (SD = 5.4), BMI 28.0 kg/m2 (SD = 5.5). There was no evidence of a strong association between anastrozole or placebo and endpoints at 9-18 months; effect size (95 %CI) for anastrozole minus placebo for body weight (per/kg) -0.11 (-1.29-1.08); body fat 0.11 (-0.75-0.96) and fat free mass -0.30 (-0.79-0.19).

Conclusions

There is unlikely to be a clinically significant change to body composition with anastrozole for breast cancer prevention.

Effect of baseline oestradiol serum concentration on the efficacy of anastrozole for preventing breast cancer in postmenopausal women at high risk: a case-control study of the IBIS-II prevention trial

BACKGROUND

An increased risk of breast cancer is associated with high serum concentrations of oestradiol and testosterone in postmenopausal women, but little is known about how these hormones affect response to endocrine therapy for breast cancer prevention or treatment. We aimed to assess the effects of serum oestradiol and testosterone concentrations on the efficacy of the aromatase inhibitor anastrozole for the prevention of breast cancer in postmenopausal women at high risk.

METHODS

In this case-control study we used data from the IBIS-II prevention trial, a randomised, controlled, double-blind trial in postmenopausal women aged 40-70 years at high risk of breast cancer, conducted in 153 breast cancer treatment centres across 18 countries. In the trial, women were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive anastrozole (1 mg/day, orally) or placebo daily for 5 years. In this pre-planned case-control study, the primary analysis was the effect of the baseline oestradiol to sex hormone binding globulin (SHBG) ratio (oestradiol-SHBG ratio) on the development of all breast cancers, including ductal carcinoma in situ (the primary endpoint in the trial). Cases were participants in whom breast cancer was reported after trial entry and until the cutoff on Oct 22, 2019, and who had valid blood samples and no use of hormone replacement therapy within 3 months of trial entry or during the trial. For each case, two controls without breast cancer were selected at random, matched on treatment group, age (within 2 years), and follow-up time (at least that of the matching case). For each treatment group, we applied a multinominal logistic regression likelihood-ratio trend test to assess what change in the proportion of cases was associated with a one-quartile change in hormone ratio. Controls were used only to determine quartile cutoffs. Profile likelihood 95% CIs were used to indicate the precision of estimates. A secondary analysis also investigated the effect of the baseline testosterone-SHBG ratio on breast cancer development. We also assessed relative benefit of anastrozole versus placebo (calculated as 1 - the ratio of breast cancer cases in the anastrozole group to cases in the placebo group). The trial was registered with ISRCTN (number ISRCTN31488319) and completed recruitment on Jan 31, 2012, but long-term follow-up is ongoing.

FINDINGS

3864 women were recruited into the trial between Feb 2, 2003, and Jan 31, 2012, and randomly assigned to receive anastrozole (n=1920) or placebo (n=1944). Median follow-up time was 131 months (IQR 106-156), during which 85 (4·4%) cases of breast cancer in the anastrozole group and 165 (8·5%) in the placebo group were identified. No data on gender, race, or ethnicity were collected. After exclusions, the case-control study included 212 participants from the anastrozole group (72 cases, 140 controls) and 416 from the placebo group (142 cases, 274 controls). A trend of increasing breast cancer risk with increasing oestradiol-SHBG ratio was found in the placebo group (trend per quartile 1·25 [95% CI 1·08 to 1·45], p=0·0033), but not in the anastrozole group (1·06 [0·86 to 1·30], p=0·60). A weaker effect was seen for the testosterone-SHBG ratio in the placebo group (trend 1·21 [1·05 to 1·41], p=0·011), but again not in the anastrozole group (trend 1·18 [0·96 to 1·46], p=0·11). A relative benefit of anastrozole was seen in quartile 2 (0·55 [95% CI 0·13 to 0·78]), quartile 3 (0·54 [0·22 to 0·74], and quartile 4 (0·56 [0·23 to 0·76]) of oestradiol-SHBG ratio, but not in quartile 1 (0·18 [-0·60 to 0·59]).

INTERPRETATION

These results suggest that serum hormones should be measured more routinely and integrated into risk management decisions. Measuring serum hormone concentrations is inexpensive and might help clinicians differentiate which women will benefit most from an aromatase inhibitor.

FUNDING

Cancer Research UK, National Health and Medical Research Council (Australia), Breast Cancer Research Foundation, and DaCosta Fund.

An optimization framework to guide the choice of thresholds for risk-based cancer screening

It is uncommon for risk groups defined by statistical or artificial intelligence (AI) models to be chosen by jointly considering model performance and potential interventions available. We develop a framework to rapidly guide choice of risk groups in this manner, and apply it to guide breast cancer screening intervals using an AI model. Linear programming is used to define risk groups that minimize expected advanced cancer incidence subject to resource constraints. In the application risk stratification performance is estimated from a case-control study (2044 cases, 1:1 matching), and other parameters are taken from screening trials and the screening programme in England. Under the model, re-screening in 1 year for the highest 4% AI model risk, in 3 years for the middle 64%, and in 4 years for 32% of the population at lowest risk, was expected to reduce the number of advanced cancers diagnosed by approximately 18 advanced cancers per 1000 diagnosed with triennial screening, for the same average number of screens in the population as triennial screening for all. Sensitivity analyses found the choice of thresholds was robust to model parameters, but the estimated reduction in advanced cancers was not precise and requires further evaluation. Our framework helps define thresholds with the greatest chance of success for reducing the population health burden of cancer when used in risk-adapted screening, which should be further evaluated such as in health-economic modelling based on computer simulation models, and real-world evaluations.

Radiotherapy to regional nodes in early breast cancer: an individual patient data meta-analysis of 14 324 women in 16 trials

BACKGROUND

Radiotherapy has become much better targeted since the 1980s, improving both safety and efficacy. In breast cancer, radiotherapy to regional lymph nodes aims to reduce risks of recurrence and death. Its effects have been studied in randomised trials, some before the 1980s and some after. We aimed to assess the effects of regional node radiotherapy in these two eras.

METHODS

In this meta-analysis of individual patient data, we sought data from all randomised trials of regional lymph node radiotherapy versus no regional lymph node radiotherapy in women with early breast cancer (including one study that irradiated lymph nodes only if the cancer was right-sided). Trials were identified through the EBCTCG's regular systematic searches of databases including MEDLINE, Embase, the Cochrane Library, and meeting abstracts. Trials were eligible if they began before Jan 1, 2009. The only systematic difference between treatment groups was in regional node radiotherapy (to the internal mammary chain, supraclavicular fossa, or axilla, or any combinations of these). Primary outcomes were recurrence at any site, breast cancer mortality, non-breast-cancer mortality, and all-cause mortality. Data were supplied by trialists and standardised into a format suitable for analysis. A summary of the formatted data was returned to trialists for verification. Log-rank analyses yielded first-event rate ratios (RRs) and confidence intervals.

FINDINGS

We found 17 eligible trials, 16 of which had available data (for 14 324 participants), and one of which (henceforth excluded), had unavailable data (for 165 participants). In the eight newer trials (12 167 patients), which started during 1989-2008, regional node radiotherapy significantly reduced recurrence (rate ratio 0·88, 95% CI 0·81-0·95; p=0·0008). The main effect was on distant recurrence as few regional node recurrences were reported. Radiotherapy significantly reduced breast cancer mortality (RR 0·87, 95% CI 0·80-0·94; p=0·0010), with no significant effect on non-breast-cancer mortality (0·97, 0·84-1·11; p=0·63), leading to significantly reduced all-cause mortality (0·90, 0·84-0·96; p=0·0022). In an illustrative calculation, estimated absolute reductions in 15-year breast cancer mortality were 1·6% for women with no positive axillary nodes, 2·7% for those with one to three positive axillary nodes, and 4·5% for those with four or more positive axillary nodes. In the eight older trials (2157 patients), which started during 1961-78, regional node radiotherapy had little effect on breast cancer mortality (RR 1·04, 95% CI 0·91-1·20; p=0·55), but significantly increased non-breast-cancer mortality (1·42, 1·18-1·71; p=0·00023), with risk mainly after year 20, and all-cause mortality (1·17, 1·04-1·31; p=0·0067).

INTERPRETATION

Regional node radiotherapy significantly reduced breast cancer mortality and all-cause mortality in trials done after the 1980s, but not in older trials. These contrasting findings could reflect radiotherapy improvements since the 1980s.

FUNDING

Cancer Research UK, Medical Research Council.

Development and evaluation of a method to assess breast cancer risk using a longitudinal history of mammographic density: a cohort study

BACKGROUND

Women with dense breasts have an increased risk of breast cancer. However, breast density is measured with variability, which may reduce the reliability and accuracy of its association with breast cancer risk. This is particularly relevant when visually assessing breast density due to variation in inter- and intra-reader assessments. To address this issue, we developed a longitudinal breast density measure which uses an individual woman's entire history of mammographic density, and we evaluated its association with breast cancer risk as well as its predictive ability.

METHODS

In total, 132,439 women, aged 40-73 yr, who were enrolled in Kaiser Permanente Washington and had multiple screening mammograms taken between 1996 and 2013 were followed up for invasive breast cancer through 2014. Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System (BI-RADS) density was assessed at each screen. Continuous and derived categorical longitudinal density measures were developed using a linear mixed model that allowed for longitudinal density to be updated at each screen. Predictive ability was assessed using (1) age and body mass index-adjusted hazard ratios (HR) for breast density (time-varying covariate), (2) likelihood-ratio statistics (ΔLR-χ2) and (3) concordance indices.

RESULTS

In total, 2704 invasive breast cancers were diagnosed during follow-up (median = 5.2 yr; median mammograms per woman = 3). When compared with an age- and body mass index-only model, the gain in statistical information provided by the continuous longitudinal density measure was 23% greater than that provided by BI-RADS density (follow-up after baseline mammogram: ΔLR-χ2 = 379.6 (degrees of freedom (df) = 2) vs. 307.7 (df = 3)), which increased to 35% (ΔLR-χ2 = 251.2 vs. 186.7) for follow-up after three mammograms (n = 76,313, 2169 cancers). There was a sixfold difference in observed risk between densest and fattiest eight-category longitudinal density (HR = 6.3, 95% CI 4.7-8.7), versus a fourfold difference with BI-RADS density (HR = 4.3, 95% CI 3.4-5.5). Discriminatory accuracy was marginally greater for longitudinal versus BI-RADS density (c-index = 0.64 vs. 0.63, mean difference = 0.008, 95% CI 0.003-0.012).

CONCLUSIONS

Estimating mammographic density using a woman's history of breast density is likely to be more reliable than using the most recent observation only, which may lead to more reliable and accurate estimates of individual breast cancer risk. Longitudinal breast density has the potential to improve personal breast cancer risk estimation in women attending mammography screening.

Breast cancer polygenic risk scores derived in White European populations are not calibrated for women of Ashkenazi Jewish descent

PURPOSE

Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) are a major component of accurate breast cancer (BC) risk prediction but require ethnicity-specific calibration. Ashkenazi Jewish (AJ) population is assumed to be of White European (WE) origin in some commercially available PRSs despite differing effect allele frequencies (EAFs). We conducted a case-control study of WE and AJ women from the Predicting Risk of Cancer at Screening Study. The Breast Cancer in Northern Israel Study provided a separate AJ population-based case-control validation series.

METHODS

All women underwent Illumina OncoArray single-nucleotide variation (SNV; formerly single-nucleotide polymorphism [SNP]) analysis. Two PRSs were assessed, SNV142 and SNV78. A total of 221 of 2243 WE women (discovery: cases = 111; controls = 110; validation: cases = 651; controls = 1772) and 221 AJ women (cases = 121; controls = 110) were included from the UK study; the Israeli series consisted of 2045 AJ women (cases = 1331; controls = 714). EAFs were obtained from the Genome Aggregation Database.

RESULTS

In the UK study, the mean SNV142 PRS demonstrated good calibration and discrimination in WE population, with mean PRS of 1.33 (95% CI 1.18-1.48) in cases and 1.01 (95% CI 0.89-1.13) in controls. In AJ women from Manchester, the mean PRS of 1.54 (1.38-1.70) in cases and 1.20 (1.08-1.32) in controls demonstrated good discrimination but overestimation of BC relative risk. After adjusting for EAFs for the AJ population, mean risk was corrected (mean SNV142 PRS cases = 1.30 [95% CI 1.16-1.44] and controls = 1.02 [95% CI 0.92-1.12]). This was recapitulated in the larger Israeli data set with good discrimination (area under the curve = 0.632 [95% CI 0.607-0.657] for SNV142).

CONCLUSION

AJ women should not be given BC relative risk predictions based on PRSs calibrated to EAFs from the WE population. PRSs need to be recalibrated using AJ-derived EAFs. A simple recalibration using the mean PRS adjustment ratio likely performs well.

Impact of HPV testing in opportunistic cervical screening: Support for primary HPV screening in the United States

Human papillomavirus (HPV) testing for cervical screening increases diagnosis of precancer and reduces the incidence of cervical cancer more than cytology alone. However, real-world evidence from diverse practice settings is lacking for the United States (U.S.) to support clinician adoption of primary HPV screening. Using a population-based registry, which captures all cervical cytology (with or without HPV testing) and all cervical biopsies, we conducted a real-world evidence study of screening in women aged 30 to 64 years across the entire state of New Mexico. Negative cytology was used to distinguish cotests from reflex HPV tests. A total of 264 198 cervical screening tests (with exclusions based on clinical history) were recorded as the first screening test between 2014 and 2017. Diagnoses of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grades 2 or 3 or greater (CIN2+, CIN3+) from 2014 to 2019 were the main outcomes. Of cytology-negative screens, 165 595 (67.1%) were cotests and 4.8% of these led to biopsy within 2 years vs 3.2% in the cytology-only group. Among cytology-negative, HPV tested women, 347 of 398 (87.2%) CIN2+ cases were diagnosed in HPV-positive women, as were 147 of 164 (89.6%) CIN3+ cases. Only 29/921 (3.2%) CIN3+ and 67/1964 (3.4%) CIN2+ cases were diagnosed in HPV-negative, cytology-positive women with biopsies. Under U.S. opportunistic screening, across a diversity of health care delivery practices, and in a population suffering multiple disparities, we show adding HPV testing to cytology substantially increased the yield of CIN2+ and CIN3+. CIN3+ was rarely diagnosed in HPV-negative women with abnormal cytology, supporting U.S. primary HPV-only screening.

Evaluation of an AI Model to Assess Future Breast Cancer Risk

Background Accurate breast cancer risk assessment after a negative screening result could enable better strategies for early detection. Purpose To evaluate a deep learning algorithm for risk assessment based on digital mammograms. Materials and Methods A retrospective observational matched case-control study was designed using the OPTIMAM Mammography Image Database from the National Health Service Breast Screening Programme in the United Kingdom from February 2010 to September 2019. Patients with breast cancer (cases) were diagnosed following a mammographic screening or between two triannual screening rounds. Controls were matched based on mammography device, screening site, and age. The artificial intelligence (AI) model only used mammograms at screening before diagnosis. The primary objective was to assess model performance, with a secondary objective to assess heterogeneity and calibration slope. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was estimated for 3-year risk. Heterogeneity according to cancer subtype was assessed using a likelihood ratio interaction test. Statistical significance was set at P < .05. Results Analysis included patients with screen-detected (median age, 60 years [IQR, 55-65 years]; 2044 female, including 1528 with invasive cancer and 503 with ductal carcinoma in situ [DCIS]) or interval (median age, 59 years [IQR, 53-65 years]; 696 female, including 636 with invasive cancer and 54 with DCIS) breast cancer and 1:1 matched controls, each with a complete set of mammograms at the screening preceding diagnosis. The AI model had an overall AUC of 0.68 (95% CI: 0.66, 0.70), with no evidence of a significant difference between interval and screen-detected (AUC, 0.69 vs 0.67; P = .085) cancer. The calibration slope was 1.13 (95% CI: 1.01, 1.26). There was similar performance for the detection of invasive cancer versus DCIS (AUC, 0.68 vs 0.66; P = .057). The model had higher performance for advanced cancer risk (AUC, 0.72 ≥stage II vs 0.66 Collapse

Key Words Collapse

MESH Headings

• Humans
• Female
• Middle Aged
• Breast Neoplasms/diagnostic imaging
• Carcinoma, Intraductal, Noninfiltrating
• Artificial Intelligence
• Case-Control Studies
• Retrospective Studies
• State Medicine

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Grants

• 28689 Cancer Research UK
• C49757/A28689 Cancer Research UK

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Affiliation(s)

Celeste Damiani From the Center for Human Technologies, Istituto Italiano di Tecnologia, Via Melen 83, Genoa 16152, Italy (C.D.); Wolfson Institute of Population Health, Queen Mary University of London, London, UK (C.D., E.F.L., J.C., A.R.B.); Institute of Computer Science (ICS), Foundation of Research and Technology Hellas, Heraklion, Crete, Greece (G.K.); Joint for Director Breast Screening, University Hospitals Coventry and Warwickshire NHS Trust Coventry, Coventry, UK (M.S.); Department of Oncoplastic Breast Surgery, University Hospitals of Leicester NHS Trust, Leicester, UK (M.A.A.); Consumer member at National Cancer Research Institute, Breast Group, London, UK (J.R., C.P.); and University of Warwick, WMG, Coventry, UK (G.M.)
Grigorios Kalliatakis From the Center for Human Technologies, Istituto Italiano di Tecnologia, Via Melen 83, Genoa 16152, Italy (C.D.); Wolfson Institute of Population Health, Queen Mary University of London, London, UK (C.D., E.F.L., J.C., A.R.B.); Institute of Computer Science (ICS), Foundation of Research and Technology Hellas, Heraklion, Crete, Greece (G.K.); Joint for Director Breast Screening, University Hospitals Coventry and Warwickshire NHS Trust Coventry, Coventry, UK (M.S.); Department of Oncoplastic Breast Surgery, University Hospitals of Leicester NHS Trust, Leicester, UK (M.A.A.); Consumer member at National Cancer Research Institute, Breast Group, London, UK (J.R., C.P.); and University of Warwick, WMG, Coventry, UK (G.M.)
Muthyala Sreenivas From the Center for Human Technologies, Istituto Italiano di Tecnologia, Via Melen 83, Genoa 16152, Italy (C.D.); Wolfson Institute of Population Health, Queen Mary University of London, London, UK (C.D., E.F.L., J.C., A.R.B.); Institute of Computer Science (ICS), Foundation of Research and Technology Hellas, Heraklion, Crete, Greece (G.K.); Joint for Director Breast Screening, University Hospitals Coventry and Warwickshire NHS Trust Coventry, Coventry, UK (M.S.); Department of Oncoplastic Breast Surgery, University Hospitals of Leicester NHS Trust, Leicester, UK (M.A.A.); Consumer member at National Cancer Research Institute, Breast Group, London, UK (J.R., C.P.); and University of Warwick, WMG, Coventry, UK (G.M.)
Miaad Al-Attar From the Center for Human Technologies, Istituto Italiano di Tecnologia, Via Melen 83, Genoa 16152, Italy (C.D.); Wolfson Institute of Population Health, Queen Mary University of London, London, UK (C.D., E.F.L., J.C., A.R.B.); Institute of Computer Science (ICS), Foundation of Research and Technology Hellas, Heraklion, Crete, Greece (G.K.); Joint for Director Breast Screening, University Hospitals Coventry and Warwickshire NHS Trust Coventry, Coventry, UK (M.S.); Department of Oncoplastic Breast Surgery, University Hospitals of Leicester NHS Trust, Leicester, UK (M.A.A.); Consumer member at National Cancer Research Institute, Breast Group, London, UK (J.R., C.P.); and University of Warwick, WMG, Coventry, UK (G.M.)
Janice Rose From the Center for Human Technologies, Istituto Italiano di Tecnologia, Via Melen 83, Genoa 16152, Italy (C.D.); Wolfson Institute of Population Health, Queen Mary University of London, London, UK (C.D., E.F.L., J.C., A.R.B.); Institute of Computer Science (ICS), Foundation of Research and Technology Hellas, Heraklion, Crete, Greece (G.K.); Joint for Director Breast Screening, University Hospitals Coventry and Warwickshire NHS Trust Coventry, Coventry, UK (M.S.); Department of Oncoplastic Breast Surgery, University Hospitals of Leicester NHS Trust, Leicester, UK (M.A.A.); Consumer member at National Cancer Research Institute, Breast Group, London, UK (J.R., C.P.); and University of Warwick, WMG, Coventry, UK (G.M.)
Clare Pudney From the Center for Human Technologies, Istituto Italiano di Tecnologia, Via Melen 83, Genoa 16152, Italy (C.D.); Wolfson Institute of Population Health, Queen Mary University of London, London, UK (C.D., E.F.L., J.C., A.R.B.); Institute of Computer Science (ICS), Foundation of Research and Technology Hellas, Heraklion, Crete, Greece (G.K.); Joint for Director Breast Screening, University Hospitals Coventry and Warwickshire NHS Trust Coventry, Coventry, UK (M.S.); Department of Oncoplastic Breast Surgery, University Hospitals of Leicester NHS Trust, Leicester, UK (M.A.A.); Consumer member at National Cancer Research Institute, Breast Group, London, UK (J.R., C.P.); and University of Warwick, WMG, Coventry, UK (G.M.)
Emily F Lane From the Center for Human Technologies, Istituto Italiano di Tecnologia, Via Melen 83, Genoa 16152, Italy (C.D.); Wolfson Institute of Population Health, Queen Mary University of London, London, UK (C.D., E.F.L., J.C., A.R.B.); Institute of Computer Science (ICS), Foundation of Research and Technology Hellas, Heraklion, Crete, Greece (G.K.); Joint for Director Breast Screening, University Hospitals Coventry and Warwickshire NHS Trust Coventry, Coventry, UK (M.S.); Department of Oncoplastic Breast Surgery, University Hospitals of Leicester NHS Trust, Leicester, UK (M.A.A.); Consumer member at National Cancer Research Institute, Breast Group, London, UK (J.R., C.P.); and University of Warwick, WMG, Coventry, UK (G.M.)
Jack Cuzick From the Center for Human Technologies, Istituto Italiano di Tecnologia, Via Melen 83, Genoa 16152, Italy (C.D.); Wolfson Institute of Population Health, Queen Mary University of London, London, UK (C.D., E.F.L., J.C., A.R.B.); Institute of Computer Science (ICS), Foundation of Research and Technology Hellas, Heraklion, Crete, Greece (G.K.); Joint for Director Breast Screening, University Hospitals Coventry and Warwickshire NHS Trust Coventry, Coventry, UK (M.S.); Department of Oncoplastic Breast Surgery, University Hospitals of Leicester NHS Trust, Leicester, UK (M.A.A.); Consumer member at National Cancer Research Institute, Breast Group, London, UK (J.R., C.P.); and University of Warwick, WMG, Coventry, UK (G.M.)
Giovanni Montana From the Center for Human Technologies, Istituto Italiano di Tecnologia, Via Melen 83, Genoa 16152, Italy (C.D.); Wolfson Institute of Population Health, Queen Mary University of London, London, UK (C.D., E.F.L., J.C., A.R.B.); Institute of Computer Science (ICS), Foundation of Research and Technology Hellas, Heraklion, Crete, Greece (G.K.); Joint for Director Breast Screening, University Hospitals Coventry and Warwickshire NHS Trust Coventry, Coventry, UK (M.S.); Department of Oncoplastic Breast Surgery, University Hospitals of Leicester NHS Trust, Leicester, UK (M.A.A.); Consumer member at National Cancer Research Institute, Breast Group, London, UK (J.R., C.P.); and University of Warwick, WMG, Coventry, UK (G.M.)
Adam R Brentnall From the Center for Human Technologies, Istituto Italiano di Tecnologia, Via Melen 83, Genoa 16152, Italy (C.D.); Wolfson Institute of Population Health, Queen Mary University of London, London, UK (C.D., E.F.L., J.C., A.R.B.); Institute of Computer Science (ICS), Foundation of Research and Technology Hellas, Heraklion, Crete, Greece (G.K.); Joint for Director Breast Screening, University Hospitals Coventry and Warwickshire NHS Trust Coventry, Coventry, UK (M.S.); Department of Oncoplastic Breast Surgery, University Hospitals of Leicester NHS Trust, Leicester, UK (M.A.A.); Consumer member at National Cancer Research Institute, Breast Group, London, UK (J.R., C.P.); and University of Warwick, WMG, Coventry, UK (G.M.)

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Measuring cancer burden in prostatic needle core biopsies: simplified assessments outperform complex measurements in assessing outcome: evidence to assist pathologist efficiency and minimize datasets

AIMS

The optimal method of measuring cancer extent in prostate cancer (PCa) biopsies is unknown.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Nine hundred eighty-one men with clinically localised PCa managed conservatively were reviewed with follow up. The number of positive cores (NPC), the Maximum Cancer Length in a core (MCL), Total Cancer Length (TCL), and percentage of positive cores (%+cores) was calculated and univariate and multivariate analysis performed using prostate-specific antigen (PSA), T-stage, and Gleason score. The presence of stromal gaps (SG) was recorded. Univariate models were run where SG made a difference to the MCL. All variables showed significant association with PCa death in univariate models. In multivariate models, incorporating PSA, T-stage, and Gleason score, only %+cores was a significant predictor of outcome, with a 10% increase in %+cores resulting in a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.07 (likelihood-ratio test P > Χ2  = 0.01). There were 120 patients where SG made a difference to the MCL and a total of 20 events in this group. Including SG, on univariate analysis the median MCL was 10 mm and HR was 1.16 (P = 0.007), not including SG, the median MCL was 6 mm and HR was 1.23 (P = 6.3 × 10-4 ). Inclusion or exclusion of SG made no significant difference to TCL as a predictor of outcome.

CONCLUSION

Cancer extent is a strong predictor of PCa death but only %+cores added to the multivariate model. Expressed as a fraction of NPC/total number of cores, this is the simplest method of assessment, which we favour over more complicated methods in nontargeted biopsies.

Quantifying the effects of risk-stratified breast cancer screening when delivered in real time as routine practice versus usual screening: the BC-Predict non-randomised controlled study (NCT04359420)

BACKGROUND

Risk stratification as a routine part of the NHS Breast Screening Programme (NHSBSP) could provide a better balance of benefits and harms. We developed BC-Predict, to offer women when invited to the NHSBSP, which collects standard risk factor information; mammographic density; and in a sub-sample, a Polygenic Risk Score (PRS).

METHODS

Risk prediction was estimated primarily from self-reported questionnaires and mammographic density using the Tyrer-Cuzick risk model. Women eligible for NHSBSP were recruited. BC-Predict produced risk feedback letters, inviting women at high risk (≥8% 10-year) or moderate risk (≥5-<8% 10-year) to have appointments to discuss prevention and additional screening.

RESULTS

Overall uptake of BC-Predict in screening attendees was 16.9% with 2472 consenting to the study; 76.8% of those received risk feedback within the 8-week timeframe. Recruitment was 63.2% with an onsite recruiter and paper questionnaire compared to <10% with BC-Predict only (P < 0.0001). Risk appointment attendance was highest for those at high risk (40.6%); 77.5% of those opted for preventive medication.

DISCUSSION

We have shown that a real-time offer of breast cancer risk information (including both mammographic density and PRS) is feasible and can be delivered in reasonable time, although uptake requires personal contact. Preventive medication uptake in women newly identified at high risk is high and could improve the cost-effectiveness of risk stratification.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Retrospectively registered with clinicaltrials.gov (NCT04359420).

Abstract PD14-01: PD14-01 A model to assess the utility of risk-based screening algorithms

Background: Breast cancer screening recommendations vary around the world, but most are based on age or inherited genetic risk factors. For instance, the American Cancer Society recommends annual mammography plus breast MRI starting at age 30yr for women at high risk of breast cancer based mainly on family history or high-risk genes. Women at average risk (no strong family history or high-risk genes) are recommended to have the option of annual mammography starting at age 40yr. Risk-based screening, which aims to personalise screening to an individual woman’s risk of breast cancer based on a more comprehensive risk assessment than just age, family history, or high-risk genes, might improve current screening strategies.

Methods: We developed a deterministic model to estimate the incidence of advanced (node-positive) breast cancer (plus number of screens) for different risk-based screening strategies in a UK setting. The proportion of screen-detected and interval cancers was estimated for various screening intervals using a model developed by Launoy et al. and parameters for sensitivity (0.92) and annual transition rate from asymptomatic to symptomatic disease (0.25) from The Swedish Two-County Trial. The proportion of node-positive cancers was estimated for screen-detected (22%) and interval (53%) cancers, using data from the NHS Breast Screening Programme (England, 2015-18, women aged 47yr+).

Choice of mammography screening regimen was based on Tyrer-Cuzick 10yr risk (v8 including age, family history, reproductive factors, benign breast disease, SNPs and breast density). The proportion of women in each risk group was estimated from a UK cohort study investigating breast cancer risk at screening (PROCAS). In a hypothetical cohort of 3.45M women, 1M women would be identified as either high-risk (&gt;8% 10yr risk; n=241,379) or low-risk (&lt; 1.4% 10yr risk; n=758,621). In these 1M high/low-risk women, we evaluated two risk-based screening scenarios, comparing their effects with usual triennial screening starting at age 50yr (which was proposed for the 2.45M women at intermediate-risk (1.4-8% 10yr risk)).

Scenario (1): Changing screening interval based on risk (high-risk every 1yr; low-risk every 5yr) for screening between 50-70yr.

Scenario (2): Changing the starting age of screening based on risk (high-risk start annual screening at 45yr followed by triennial screening from 50yr; low-risk start triennial screening at 55yr); follow-up 45-55yr.

We assessed the trade-off between the decreased/increased number of node-positive breast cancers and increased/decreased number of screens with the high/low-risk regimens, respectively. A sensitivity analysis considered risk stratification without breast density.

Results: Scenario (1): Changing screening interval based on risk reduced the number of node-positive cancers in high-risk women by 2,194 (with 3.14M additional mammograms) and increased the number of node-positive cancers in low-risk women by 910 (with 2.28M fewer mammograms) when compared with usual screening; a difference of 1,284 fewer node-positive cancers and 862,069 additional screens.

Scenario (2): Additional annual mammograms for high-risk women at 45-49yr reduced the number of node-positive cancers by 1,392 (with 1.21M additional mammograms); starting triennial screening at 55yr rather than 50yr for low-risk women increased the number of node-positive cancers by 841 (with 1.52M fewer mammograms); a difference of 551 fewer node-positive cancers and 310,345 fewer screens.

Excluding breast density from risk assessment reduced the number identified as high or low-risk, and thus the number of advanced cancers prevented and screens required, but the overall findings were unchanged.

Conclusion: Changing the starting age of screening based on risk of breast cancer is likely to be more effective per screen required at reducing the rate of advanced breast cancer than changing the screening interval based on risk.

Table 1: Results for Scenario (1) Risk-based screening (changing screening interval based on risk: high-risk every 1 year; low-risk every 5 years) versus usual screening (every 3 years) between age 50-70 years (plus an additional 3 years of follow-up to adjust for the effect of screening on risk of breast cancer). N: Number; %: percentage; node+: Node-positive breast cancer; Δ: Difference; yr: Year; N/A: not applicable.

Table 2: Results for Scenario (2) Risk-based screening (changing the starting age of screening based on risk: high-risk start annual screening at age 45-49 years followed by triennial screening from age 50 years; low-risk start triennial screening at age 55 years) versus usual screening (triennial screening starting at age 50 years), with follow-up from age 45-55 years. n: Number; 1M: 1 million; node+: Node-positive breast cancer; Δ: Difference; yr: Year.

Table 3: Results for sensitivity analysis - Scenarios (1) and (2) with risk assessment including/excluding breast density Scenario (1): Risk-based screening (changing screening interval based on risk: high-risk every 1 year; low-risk every 5 years) versus usual screening (every 3 years) between age 50-70 years (plus an additional 3 years of follow-up to adjust for the effect of screening on risk of breast cancer). Scenario (2): Risk-based screening (changing the starting age of screening based on risk: high-risk start annual screening at age 45-49 years followed by triennial screening from age 50 years; low-risk start triennial screening at age 55 years) versus usual screening (triennial screening starting at age 50 years), with follow-up from age 45-55 years. n: Number; node+: Node-positive breast cancer; Δ: Difference; yr: Year.

Citation Format: Emma C. Atakpa, Jack Cuzick, Stephen W. Duffy, D. Gareth Evans, Sacha J. Howell, Adam R. Brentnall. PD14-01 A model to assess the utility of risk-based screening algorithms [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2022 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2022 Dec 6-10; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2023;83(5 Suppl):Abstract nr PD14-01.

Obesity at age 20 and weight gain during adulthood increase risk of total and premature all-cause mortality: findings from women attending breast screening in Manchester

BACKGROUND

Obesity in early adulthood is associated with lower breast cancer rates in later life. This could be interpreted as a positive reinforcement of excess weight amongst younger women however, the wider implications of higher weights are less well known. This study examined the association between both obesity in early adulthood and body mass index (BMI) change through adulthood, and all-cause mortality.

METHODS

The Predicting Risk of Cancer At Screening (PROCAS) study recruited 57,902 women aged 46-73 years (median age 57.2, IQR 51.8-63.7 years) from the Greater Manchester National Health Service breast screening programme in North West England between 2009 and 2015. It was used to assess associations between BMI at 20 years and cohort entry with all-cause mortality ascertained via deaths recorded on the National Breast Screening System to June 2020. Hazard ratios were estimated using proportional hazards (Cox) regression adjusted for factors at entry to the cohort: age, deprivation, bilateral oophorectomy, hormone-replacement therapy, menopausal status, ethnicity, alcohol intake, physical activity, and BMI.

RESULTS

The prevalence of overweight (25-30 kg/m²) and obesity (> 30 kg/m²) were 10.4% and 2.5% respectively at 20 years, increasing to 35.2% and 25.9% respectively at cohort entry. After a mean 8.7 years follow-up we observed that overweight (HR = 1.27, 95%CI = 1.10-1.47) and obesity (HR = 2.11, 95%CI = 1.67-2.66) at 20 years had a higher mortality rate compared with healthy weight. Women who were underweight/healthy weight at 20 years and gained weight to obesity at entry had a slightly increased mortality rate compared with women who were underweight/healthy weight at both time points (HR 1.16, 95%CI = 1.02-1.32). Women with overweight (HR = 1.36, 95%CI = 1.06-1.75) or obesity (HR = 1.90, 95%CI = 1.45-2.48) at both 20 years and entry had a higher mortality rate than women who were underweight/healthy weight at both points.

CONCLUSIONS

Women who self-reported overweight and obesity at 20 years had a shorter life expectancy in this cohort of women attending breast cancer screening. Weight gain from 20 years was common in this group. Girls and women should be supported to maintain a healthy weight throughout the lifespan to help increase life expectancy. Trial registration number NCT04359420, retrospectively registered 24/04/2020.

A case-control study to evaluate the impact of the breast screening programme on breast cancer incidence in England

BACKGROUND

There is uncertainty about overdiagnosis in mammography screening.

METHODS

We aimed to estimate the effect of screening on breast cancer incidence and overdiagnosis in the NHS Breast Screening Programme in England. The study included 57,493 cases and 105,653 controls, with cases defined as women diagnosed at ages 47-89 with primary breast cancer, invasive or ductal carcinoma in situ, in 2010 or 2011. Where possible, two controls were selected per case, matched on date of birth and screening area. Conditional logistic regression was used to estimate the effect of screening on breast cancer risk, with adjustment for potential self-selection bias. Results were combined with national incidence data to estimate absolute rates of overdiagnosis. Overdiagnosis was calculated as the cumulative excess of cancers diagnosed in the age group 50-77 in a woman attending three-yearly screening between ages 50 and 70 compared with a woman attending no screens.

RESULTS

The estimated number of cases overdiagnosed in women attending all screens in the programme was 679.3 per 100,000 without adjustment for self-selection bias and 261.2 per 100,000 with adjustment. These corresponded to an estimated 9.5% of screen-detected cancers overdiagnosed without adjustment and 3.7% with adjustment for self-selection.

CONCLUSIONS

The NHS Breast Screening Programme in England confers at worst modest levels of overdiagnosis.

Interpreting the results of noninferiority trials-a review

Noninferiority trials are becoming increasing common, but are often poorly reported and misunderstood. A better understanding of the new components of a noninferiority trial and their interpretation is needed. Noninferiority trials are an extension of conventional superiority trials, which provide a basis for determining if a new treatment, which may have advantages other than efficacy, has sufficient efficacy to be useful in certain situations. A key feature is the need to specify a clinical noninferiority margin above which the lower boundary of the confidence interval for the difference between the new treatment and the conventional treatment must lie. In most cases a nontreated control arm is not included, and when the efficacy of the new treatment is less than that of the standard treatment, determining its efficacy versus no treatment can be a major challenge. Treatments meeting a clinical noninferiority requirement can be statistically significantly superior to standard treatment, of similar efficacy (i.e., no significant difference), or even significantly inferior in a conventional analysis. Noninferiority comparisons are an important addition to the reporting of clinical trials, but require prior consideration of several factors that conventional superiority analyses do not address.

Feasibility of aspirin and/or vitamin D3 for men with prostate cancer on active surveillance with Prolaris® testing

Objectives

To test the feasibility of a randomised controlled trial (RCT) of aspirin and/or vitamin D3 in active surveillance (AS) low/favourable intermediate risk prostate cancer (PCa) patients with Prolaris® testing.

Patients and Methods

Newly-diagnosed low/favourable intermediate risk PCa patients (PSA ≤ 15 ng/ml, International Society of Urological Pathology (ISUP) Grade Group ≤2, maximum biopsy core length <10 mm, clinical stage ≤cT2c) were recruited into a multi-centre randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled study (ISRCTN91422391, NCT03103152). Participants were randomised to oral low dose (100 mg), standard dose (300 mg) aspirin or placebo and/or vitamin D3 (4000 IU) versus placebo in a 3 × 2 factorial RCT design with biopsy tissue Prolaris® testing. The primary endpoint was trial acceptance/entry rates. Secondary endpoints included feasibility of Prolaris® testing, 12-month disease re-assessment (imaging/biochemical/histological), and 12-month treatment adherence/safety. Disease progression was defined as any of the following (i) 50% increase in baseline PSA, (ii) new Prostate Imaging-Reporting and Data System (PI-RADS) 4/5 lesion(s) on multi-parametric MRI where no previous lesion, (iii) 33% volume increase in lesion size, or radiological upstaging to ≥T3, (iv) ISUP Grade Group upgrade or (v) 50% increase in maximum cancer core length.

Results

Of 130 eligible patients, 104 (80%) accepted recruitment from seven sites over 12 months, of which 94 patients represented the per protocol population receiving treatment. Prolaris® testing was performed on 76/94 (81%) diagnostic biopsies. Twelve-month disease progression rate was 43.3%. Assessable 12-month treatment adherence in non-progressing patients to aspirin and vitamin D across all treatment arms was 91%. Two drug-attributable serious adverse events in 1 patient allocated to aspirin were identified. The study was not designed to determine differences between treatment arms.

Conclusion

Recruitment of AS PCa patients into a multi-centre multi-arm placebo-controlled RCT of minimally-toxic adjunctive oral drug treatments with molecular biomarker profiling is acceptable and safe. A larger phase III study is needed to determine optimal agents, intervention efficacy, and outcome-associated biomarkers.

DNA methylation testing with S5 for triage of high-risk HPV positive women

Methylation of host and viral genes is promising for triage of women with high-risk human papillomavirus infections (hrHPV). Using a population-based sample of hrHPV positive women with cervical biopsies within 12 months after cervical screening, the clinical value of the S5 methylation classifier (S5), HPV genotyping and cytology were compared as potential triage tests, for outcomes of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) grade 3 or greater (CIN3+), CIN2+ and CIN2, and the area under the curve (AUC) calculated. S5 scores increased with histopathology severity (Ptrend  < .001). For CIN3+, the AUC was 0.780 suggesting S5 provides good discrimination between Collapse

Key Words

• DNA methylation
• cervical cancer
• high-risk HPV
• molecular markers
• triage

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MESH Headings

• DNA Methylation
• Early Detection of Cancer
• Female
• Human papillomavirus 16/genetics
• Human papillomavirus 18/genetics
• Humans
• Papillomaviridae/genetics
• Papillomavirus Infections/complications
• Papillomavirus Infections/diagnosis
• Papillomavirus Infections/genetics
• Triage
• Uterine Cervical Neoplasms/diagnosis
• Uterine Cervical Neoplasms/genetics
• Uterine Cervical Neoplasms/pathology
• Uterine Cervical Dysplasia/diagnosis
• Uterine Cervical Dysplasia/genetics
• Uterine Cervical Dysplasia/pathology

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Grants

• 21070 Cancer Research UK
• 27046 Cancer Research UK
• C27045/A27046 Cancer Research UK
• Cancer Research UK
• National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases

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Affiliation(s)

Rachael Adcock Centre for Cancer Prevention, Wolfson Institute of Population HealthQueen Mary University of LondonLondonUK Center for HPV PreventionUniversity of New Mexico Comprehensive Cancer CenterAlbuquerqueNew MexicoUSA
Belinda Nedjai Centre for Cancer Prevention, Wolfson Institute of Population HealthQueen Mary University of LondonLondonUK
Attila T. Lorincz Centre for Cancer Prevention, Wolfson Institute of Population HealthQueen Mary University of LondonLondonUK
Dorota Scibior‐Bentkowska Centre for Cancer Prevention, Wolfson Institute of Population HealthQueen Mary University of LondonLondonUK
Rawinder Banwait Centre for Cancer Prevention, Wolfson Institute of Population HealthQueen Mary University of LondonLondonUK
Norah Torrez‐Martinez Center for HPV PreventionUniversity of New Mexico Comprehensive Cancer CenterAlbuquerqueNew MexicoUSA
Michael Robertson Center for HPV PreventionUniversity of New Mexico Comprehensive Cancer CenterAlbuquerqueNew MexicoUSA
Jack Cuzick Centre for Cancer Prevention, Wolfson Institute of Population HealthQueen Mary University of LondonLondonUK
Cosette M. Wheeler Center for HPV PreventionUniversity of New Mexico Comprehensive Cancer CenterAlbuquerqueNew MexicoUSA
New Mexico HPV Pap Registry Steering Committee

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Breast cancer risk stratification in women of screening age: Incremental effects of adding mammographic density, polygenic risk, and a gene panel

PURPOSE

There is great promise in breast cancer risk stratification to target screening and prevention. It is unclear whether adding gene panels to other risk tools improves breast cancer risk stratification and adds discriminatory benefit on a population basis.

METHODS

In total, 10,025 of 57,902 women aged 46 to 73 years in the Predicting Risk of Cancer at Screening study provided DNA samples. A case-control study was used to evaluate breast cancer risk assessment using polygenic risk scores (PRSs), cancer gene panel (n = 33), mammographic density (density residual [DR]), and risk factors collected using a self-completed 2-page questionnaire (Tyrer-Cuzick [TC] model version 8). In total, 525 cases and 1410 controls underwent gene panel testing and PRS calculation (18, 143, and/or 313 single-nucleotide polymorphisms [SNPs]).

RESULTS

Actionable pathogenic variants (PGVs) in BRCA1/2 were found in 1.7% of cases and 0.55% of controls, and overall PGVs were found in 6.1% of cases and 1.3% of controls. A combined assessment of TC8-DR-SNP313 and gene panel provided the best risk stratification with 26.1% of controls and 9.7% of cases identified at <1.4% 10-year risk and 9.01% of controls and 23.3% of cases at ≥8% 10-year risk. Because actionable PGVs were uncommon, discrimination was identical with/without gene panel (with/without: area under the curve = 0.67, 95% CI = 0.64-0.70). Only 7 of 17 PGVs in cases resulted in actionable risk category change. Extended case (n = 644)-control (n = 1779) series with TC8-DR-SNP143 identified 18.9% of controls and only 6.4% of stage 2+ cases at <1.4% 10-year risk and 20.7% of controls and 47.9% of stage 2+ cases at ≥5% 10-year risk.

CONCLUSION

Further studies and economic analysis will determine whether adding panels to PRS is a cost-effective strategy for risk stratification.

Assessment of Risk Factors and Early Presentations of Parkinson Disease in Primary Care in a Diverse UK Population

IMPORTANCE

Early features of Parkinson disease (PD) have been described through population-based studies that overrepresent White, affluent groups and may not be generalizable.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the association between risk factors and prediagnostic presentations of PD in an ethnically diverse UK population with high socioeconomic deprivation but universal access to health care.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

A nested case-control study was conducted using electronic health care records on 1 016 277 individuals from primary care practices in East London to extract clinical information recorded between 1990 and February 6, 2018. The data were analyzed between September 3, 2020, and September 3, 2021. Individuals with a diagnosis of PD were compared with controls without PD or other major neurological conditions.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

A matched analysis (10 controls matched for each patient with PD according to age and sex) and an unmatched analysis (adjusted for age and sex) were undertaken using multivariable logistic regression to determine associations between risk factors and prediagnostic presentations to primary care with subsequent diagnosis of PD. Three time periods (<2, 2-<5, and 5-10 years before diagnosis) were analyzed separately and together.

RESULTS

Of 1 016 277 individuals included in the data set, 5699 were excluded and 1055 patients with PD and 1 009 523 controls were included in the analysis. Patients with PD were older than controls (mean [SD], 72.9 [11.3] vs 40.3 [15.2] years), and more were male (632 [59.9%] vs 516 862 [51.2%]). In the matched analysis (1055 individuals with PD and 10 550 controls), associations were found for tremor (odds ratio [OR], 145.96; 95% CI, 90.55-235.28) and memory symptoms (OR, 8.60; 95% CI, 5.91-12.49) less than 2 years before the PD diagnosis. The associations were also found up to 10 years before PD diagnosis for tremor and 5 years for memory symptoms. Among midlife risk factors, hypertension (OR, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.19-1.55) and type 2 diabetes (OR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.19-1.62) were associated with subsequent diagnosis of PD. Associations with early nonmotor features, including hypotension (OR, 6.84; 95% CI, 3.38-13.85), constipation (OR, 3.29; 95% CI, 2.32-4.66), and depression (OR, 4.69; 95% CI, 2.88-7.63), were also noted. Associations were found for epilepsy (OR, 2.5; 95% CI, 1.63-3.83) and hearing loss (OR, 1.66; 95% CI, 1.06-2.58), which have not previously been well reported. These findings were replicated using data from the UK Biobank. No association with future PD diagnosis was found for ethnicity or deprivation index level.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

This study provides data suggesting that a range of comorbidities and symptoms are encountered in primary care settings before PD diagnosis in an ethnically diverse and deprived population. Novel temporal associations were observed for epilepsy and hearing loss with subsequent development of PD. The prominence of memory symptoms suggests an excess of cognitive dysfunction in early PD in this population or difficulty in correctly ascertaining symptoms in traditionally underrepresented groups.

Aromatase inhibitors versus tamoxifen in premenopausal women with oestrogen receptor-positive early-stage breast cancer treated with ovarian suppression: a patient-level meta-analysis of 7030 women from four randomised trials

BACKGROUND

For women with early-stage oestrogen receptor (ER)-positive breast cancer, adjuvant tamoxifen reduces 15-year breast cancer mortality by a third. Aromatase inhibitors are more effective than tamoxifen in postmenopausal women but are ineffective in premenopausal women when used without ovarian suppression. We aimed to investigate whether premenopausal women treated with ovarian suppression benefit from aromatase inhibitors.

METHODS

We did a meta-analysis of individual patient data from randomised trials comparing aromatase inhibitors (anastrozole, exemestane, or letrozole) versus tamoxifen for 3 or 5 years in premenopausal women with ER-positive breast cancer receiving ovarian suppression (goserelin or triptorelin) or ablation. We collected data on baseline characteristics, dates and sites of any breast cancer recurrence or second primary cancer, and dates and causes of death. Primary outcomes were breast cancer recurrence (distant, locoregional, or contralateral), breast cancer mortality, death without recurrence, and all-cause mortality. As distant recurrence invariably results in death from breast cancer several years after the occurrence, whereas locoregional recurrence and new contralateral breast cancer are not usually fatal, the distant recurrence analysis is shown separately. Standard intention-to-treat log-rank analyses estimated first-event rate ratios (RR) and their confidence intervals (CIs).

FINDINGS

We obtained data from all four identified trials (ABCSG XII, SOFT, TEXT, and HOBOE trials), which included 7030 women with ER-positive tumours enrolled between June 17, 1999, and Aug 4, 2015. Median follow-up was 8·0 years (IQR 6·1-9·3). The rate of breast cancer recurrence was lower for women allocated to an aromatase inhibitor than for women assigned to tamoxifen (RR 0·79, 95% CI 0·69-0·90, p=0·0005). The main benefit was seen in years 0-4 (RR 0·68, 99% CI 0·55-0·85; p<0·0001), the period when treatments differed, with a 3·2% (95% CI 1·8-4·5) absolute reduction in 5-year recurrence risk (6·9% vs 10·1%). There was no further benefit, or loss of benefit, in years 5-9 (RR 0·98, 99% CI 0·73-1·33, p=0·89) or beyond year 10. Distant recurrence was reduced with aromatase inhibitor (RR 0·83, 95% CI 0·71-0·97; p=0·018). No significant differences were observed between treatments for breast cancer mortality (RR 1·01, 95% CI 0·82-1·24; p=0·94), death without recurrence (1·30, 0·75-2·25; p=0·34), or all-cause mortality (1·04, 0·86-1·27; p=0·68). There were more bone fractures with aromatase inhibitor than with tamoxifen (227 [6·4%] of 3528 women allocated to an aromatase inhibitor vs 180 [5·1%] of 3502 women allocated to tamoxifen; RR 1·27 [95% CI 1·04-1·54]; p=0·017). Non-breast cancer deaths (30 [0·9%] vs 24 [0·7%]; 1·30 [0·75-2·25]; p=0·36) and endometrial cancer (seven [0·2%] vs 15 [0·3%]; 0·52 [0·22-1·23]; p=0·14) were rare.

INTERPRETATION

Using an aromatase inhibitor rather than tamoxifen in premenopausal women receiving ovarian suppression reduces the risk of breast cancer recurrence. Longer follow-up is needed to assess any impact on breast cancer mortality.

FUNDING

Cancer Research UK, UK Medical Research Council.

Abstract PD14-08: Effectiveness of aromatase inhibitors versus tamoxifen in lobular compared to ductal carcinoma: Individual patient data meta-analysis of 9328 women with central histopathology, and 7654 women with e-Cadherin status

Background: In post-menopausal women with hormone receptor (HR) positive early breast cancer, aromatase inhibitors (AIs) are more effective than tamoxifen as endocrine therapy. However, some trial reports indicate greater benefit from AIs in lobular than ductal cancers. Invasive lobular cancer can be identified using conventional microscopy and/or immunohistochemistry for e-Cadherin status. We performed an individual patient data meta-analysis to explore possible differential treatment benefits for AI vs tamoxifen in women with lobular vs ductal hormone receptor positive breast cancer. Methods: Individual patient data were collected from three randomised controlled trials (BIG 01-98, TEAM and ATAC) of AI vs tamoxifen for postmenopausal women with estrogen receptor positive breast cancer, as well as results of central pathology review and e-Cadherin expression. Central pathology and e-Cadherin data were available on 9328 and 7654 women. Local pathology data was available for TEAM, BIG 01-98. Data were analysed using the same methodology as the previous EBCTCG meta-analysis of AI vs tamoxifen: results of different methods of diagnosing ductal vs lobular cancer were cross tabulated, and outcomes analysed using log-rank methods, yielding event rate ratios (RR) and confidence intervals. Interactions were evaluated using standard tests for heterogeneity; the primary outcomes were time to any invasive breast cancer recurrence, and time to distant recurrence. Results: Rates of lobular cancer were higher when assessed by central pathology (BIG 01-98 16%; ATAC 16%; TEAM 12%) than e-Cadherin (15% vs 14% vs 9%). Methods agreed in over 80% of cases classified as ductal using either pathology or e-Cadherin, while the agreement rate for lobular cancers was only about 50%. A similar pattern was seen comparing local pathology with either central pathology or e-Cadherin. Consequently, analyses were stratified by pathology and e-Cadherin both separately and together. Consistent with the previous meta-analysis there was a significant reduction in recurrence for AI compared to tamoxifen (RR 0.73 (0.61-0.87) p=0.0004). Exploration of interaction found no evidence of heterogeneity of treatment effect on recurrence by pathology (ductal HR 0.76 (0.64-0.89); lobular HR 0.76 (0.50-1.15) interaction p&gt0.99; nor by e-Cadherin status (interaction p=0.9). No significant interactions were seen on other endpoints. Conclusion: Analyses of three large trials of adjuvant AI vs tamoxifen found discordance in identifying patients with lobular carcinoma by local or central pathology or e-Cadherin status, indicating variability in the consistency of diagnosis. The trials included showed a benefit for AI over tamoxifen in line with the previous meta-analysis, but with no evidence of differential efficacy in lobular compared to ductal carcinomas, however measured. These data cannot rule out smaller quantitative interactions or differences in site of recurrence: however, in contrast to earlier reports, this meta-analysis of the totality of the data does not identify ductal/lobular cancer as a predictive marker for differential endocrine treatment benefit.

Citation Format: Robert K Hills, Steffi Oesterreich, Otto Metzger, David Dabbs, Hongchao Pan, Jeremy Braybrooke, Richard Gray, Richard Peto, Rosie Bradley, Ewan Straiton, Richard Berry, Daniel Rea, David Cameron, Jack Cuzick, Meredith Regan, Mitch Dowsett, Ivana Sestak, Jonas Bergh, Sandra M Swain, John Bartlett, Early Breast Cancer Trialists' Collaborative Group. Effectiveness of aromatase inhibitors versus tamoxifen in lobular compared to ductal carcinoma: Individual patient data meta-analysis of 9328 women with central histopathology, and 7654 women with e-Cadherin status [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2021 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2021 Dec 7-10; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2022;82(4 Suppl):Abstract nr PD14-08.

Comparison of StemPrintER with Oncotype DX Recurrence Score for predicting risk of breast cancer distant recurrence after endocrine therapy

OBJECTIVE

Molecular tests predicting the risk of distant recurrence (DR) can be used to assist therapy decision-making in oestrogen receptor-positive (ER+) and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-negative (HER2-) breast cancer patients after considerations of standard clinical markers. The Oncotype DX Recurrence Score (RS) is a widespread tool used for this purpose. Here, we compared the RS with the StemPrintER Risk Score (SPRS), a novel genomic predictor with a unique biological basis in its ability to measure the expression of cancer stemness genes.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We benchmarked the SPRS vs. RS, alone or in combination with clinicopathological variables expressed by the Clinical Treatment Score (CTS), for the prognostication of DR in a retrospective cohort of 776 postmenopausal patients with ER+/HER2-breast cancer enrolled in the translational arm of the randomised Arimidex, Tamoxifen, Alone or in Combination (ATAC) trial. Likelihood ratio (LR) with χ² test and C-index were used to assess prognostic performance for the entire ten-year follow-up period and in early (0-5 years) and late (5-10 years) intervals.

RESULTS

In all patients, the SPRS provided significantly more prognostic information than the RS for ten-year DR prognostication (C-index = 0.688, LR-χ² = 33.4 vs. C-index = 0.641, LR-χ² = 22.1) and for late (5-10 years) DR prognostication (C-index = 0.689, LR-χ² = 18.8 vs. C-index = 0.571, LR-χ² = 4.7). The SPRS also provided more prognostic information than the RS when added to the CTS in all patients (CTS + SPRS: LR-Δχ² = 14.9; CTS + RS: LR-Δχ² = 9.7) and in node-negative patients (CTS + SPRS: LR-Δχ² = 11.7; CTS + RS: LR-Δχ² = 6.6).

CONCLUSIONS

In postmenopausal ER+/HER2- breast cancer patients, SPRS provided more prognostic information than RS for DR when used alone or in combination with the CTS. The SPRS could therefore potentially identify high-risk patients, who might benefit from aggressive treatments, from low-risk patients who might safely avoid adjuvant chemotherapy or prolongation of endocrine therapy.

Clinical performance of methylation as a biomarker for cervical carcinoma in situ and cancer diagnosis: A worldwide study

The shift towards primary human papillomavirus (HPV)-based screening has necessitated the search for a secondary triage test that provides sufficient sensitivity to detect high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) and cancer, but also brings an improved specificity to avoid unnecessary clinical work and colposcopy referrals. We evaluated the performance of the previously described DNA-methylation test (S5) in detecting CIN3 and cancers from diverse geographic settings in high-, medium- and low-income countries, using the cut-off of 0.80 and exploratory cut-offs of 2.62 and 3.70. Assays were performed using exfoliated cervical specimens (n = 808) and formalin-fixed biopsies (n = 166) from women diagnosed with cytology-negative results (n = 220), CIN3 (n = 204) and cancer stages I (n = 245), II (n = 249), III (n = 28) and IV (n = 22). Methylation increased proportionally with disease severity (Cuzick test for trend, P < .0001). S5 accurately separated women with negative-histology from CIN3 or cancer (P < .0001). At the 0.80 cut-off, 543/544 cancers were correctly identified as S5 positive (99.81%). At cut-off 3.70, S5 showed a sensitivity of 95.77% with improved specificity. The S5 odds ratios of women negative for cervical disease vs CIN3+ were significantly higher than for HPV16/18 genotyping at all cut-offs (all P < .0001). At S5 cut-off 0.80, 96.15% of consistently high-risk human papillomavirus (hrHPV)-negative cancers (tested with multiple hrHPV-genotyping assay) were positive by S5. These cancers may have been missed in current primary hrHPV-screening programmes. The S5 test can accurately detect CIN3 and malignancy irrespective of geographic context and setting. The test can be used as a screening and triage tool. Adjustment of the S5 cut-off can be performed considering the relative importance given to sensitivity vs specificity.

The importance of ethnicity: Are breast cancer polygenic risk scores ready for women who are not of White European origin?

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) for disease risk stratification show great promise for application in general populations, but most are based on data from individuals of White European origin. We assessed two well validated PRS (SNP18, SNP143) in the Predicting-Risk-of-Cancer-At-Screening (PROCAS) study in North-West England for breast cancer prediction based on ethnicity. Overall, 9475 women without breast cancer at study entry, including 645 who subsequently developed invasive breast cancer or ductal carcinoma in situ provided DNA. All were genotyped for SNP18 and a subset of 1868 controls were genotyped for SNP143. For White Europeans both PRS discriminated well between individuals with and without cancer. For n = 395 Black (n = 112), Asian (n = 119), mixed (n = 44) or Jewish (n = 120) women without cancer both PRS overestimated breast cancer risk, being most marked for women of Black and Jewish origin (P < .001). SNP143 resulted in a potential mean 40% breast cancer risk overestimation in the combined group of non-White/non-European origin. SNP-PRS that has been normalized based on White European ethnicity for breast cancer should not be used to predict risk in women of other ethnicities. There is an urgent need to develop PRS specific for other ethnicities, in order to widen access of this technology.

Burden of Mycoplasma genitalium and Bacterial Coinfections in a Population-Based Sample in New Mexico

ABSTRACT

In this population-based US study, the overall prevalence of Mycoplasma genitalium was 1.95% (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.62%-2.34%), declining from 6.12% (95% CI, 4.72%-7.92%) in women aged 21 to 24 years to 0.48% (95% CI, 0.25%-0.94%) in women aged 40 to 64 years. The prevalence of coinfections with Chlamydia trachomatis and Trichomonas vaginalis was low.

Clinical follow-up practices after cervical cancer screening by co-testing: A population-based study of adherence to U.S. guideline recommendations

Failure to follow-up women after abnormal cervical screening could lead to cervical cancers, yet little is known about adherence to recommended follow-up after abnormal co-testing [cytology and high-risk human papillomavirus (hrHPV) testing]. We documented clinical management following cervical screening by co-testing in a diverse population-based setting. A statewide surveillance program for cervical screening, diagnosis, and treatment was used to investigate all cytology, hrHPV and biopsy reports in the state of New Mexico from January 2015 through August 2019. Guideline-adherent follow-up after co-testing required 1) biopsy within 6 months for low-grade cytology if positive for hrHPV, for high-grade cytology irrespective of hrHPV, and for HPV 16/18 positive results irrespective of cytology and; 2) repeat co-testing within 18 months if cytology was negative and hrHPV test was positive (excluding types 16/18). Screening co-tests (2015-2017) for 164,522 women were analyzed using descriptive statistics, Kaplan Meier curves, and pairwise comparisons between groups. Guideline adherence was highest when both cytology and hrHPV tests were abnormal, ranging from 61.7% to 80.3%. Guideline-adherent follow-up was lower for discordant results. Women with high-grade cytology were less likely to receive a timely biopsy when hrHPV-testing was negative (48.1%) versus positive (83.3%) (p < 0.001). Only 47.9% of women received biopsies following detection of HPV16/18 with normal cytology, and 30.8% received no follow-up within 18-months. Among women with hrHPV-positive normal cytology without evidence of HPV 16/18 infection, 51% received no follow-up within 18 months. Provider education and creation of robust recall systems may help ensure appropriate follow-up of abnormal screening results.

Mammographic density, endocrine therapy and breast cancer risk: a prognostic and predictive biomarker review

BACKGROUND

Endocrine therapy is effective at preventing or treating breast cancer. Some forms of endocrine therapy have been shown to reduce mammographic density. Reduced mammographic density for women receiving endocrine therapy could be used to estimate the chance of breast cancer returning or developing breast cancer in the first instance (a prognostic biomarker). In addition, changes in mammographic density might be able to predict how well a woman responds to endocrine therapy (a predictive biomarker). The role of breast density as a prognostic or predictive biomarker could help improve the management of breast cancer.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the evidence that a reduction in mammographic density following endocrine therapy for breast cancer prevention in women without previous breast cancer, or for treatment in women with early-stage hormone receptor-positive breast cancer, is a prognostic or predictive biomarker.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched the Cochrane Breast Cancer Group Specialised Register, CENTRAL, MEDLINE, Embase, and two trials registers on 3 August 2020 along with reference checking, bibliographic searching, and contact with study authors to obtain further data.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included randomised, cohort and case-control studies of adult women with or without breast cancer receiving endocrine therapy. Endocrine therapy agents included were selective oestrogen receptor modulators and aromatase inhibitors. We required breast density before start of endocrine therapy and at follow-up. We included studies published in English.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

We used standard methodological procedures expected by Cochrane. Two review authors independently extracted data and assessed risk of bias using adapted Quality in Prognostic Studies (QUIPS) and Risk Of Bias In Non-randomised Studies - of Interventions (ROBINS-I) tools. We used the GRADE approach to evaluate the certainty of the evidence. We did not perform a quantitative meta-analysis due to substantial heterogeneity across studies.

MAIN RESULTS

Eight studies met our inclusion criteria, of which seven provided data on outcomes listed in the protocol (5786 women). There was substantial heterogeneity across studies in design, sample size (349 to 1066 women), participant characteristics, follow-up (5 to 14 years), and endocrine therapy agent. There were five breast density measures and six density change definitions. All studies had at least one domain as at moderate or high risk of bias. Common concerns were whether the study sample reflected the review target population, and likely post hoc definitions of breast density change. Most studies on prognosis for women receiving endocrine therapy reported a reduced risk associated with breast density reduction. Across endpoints, settings, and agents, risk ratio point estimates (most likely value) were between 0.1 and 1.5, but with substantial uncertainty. There was greatest consistency in the direction and magnitude of the effect for tamoxifen (across endpoints and settings, risk ratio point estimates were between 0.3 and 0.7). The findings are summarised as follows. Prognostic biomarker findings: Treatment Breast cancer mortality Two studies of 823 women on tamoxifen (172 breast cancer deaths) reported risk ratio point estimates of ~0.4 and ~0.5 associated with a density reduction. The certainty of the evidence was low. Recurrence Two studies of 1956 women on tamoxifen reported risk ratio point estimates of ~0.4 and ~0.7 associated with a density reduction. There was risk of bias in methodology for design and analysis of the studies and considerable uncertainty over the size of the effect. One study of 175 women receiving an aromatase inhibitor reported a risk ratio point estimate of ~0.1 associated with a density reduction. There was considerable uncertainty about the effect size and a moderate or high risk of bias in all domains. One study of 284 women receiving exemestane or tamoxifen as part of a randomised controlled trial reported risk ratio point estimates of ~1.5 (loco-regional recurrence) and ~1.3 (distance recurrence) associated with a density reduction. There was risk of bias in reporting and study confounding, and uncertainty over the size of the effects. The certainty of the evidence for all recurrence endpoints was very low. Incidence of a secondary primary breast cancer Two studies of 451 women on exemestane, tamoxifen, or unknown endocrine therapy reported risk ratio point estimates of ~0.5 and ~0.6 associated with a density reduction. There was risk of bias in reporting and study confounding, and uncertainty over the effect size. The certainty of the evidence was very low. We were unable to find data regarding the remaining nine outcomes prespecified in the review protocol. Prevention Incidence of invasive breast cancer and ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) One study of 507 women without breast cancer who were receiving preventive tamoxifen as part of a randomised controlled trial (51 subsequent breast cancers) reported a risk ratio point estimate of ~0.3 associated with a density reduction. The certainty of the evidence was low. Predictive biomarker findings: One study of a subset of 1065 women from a randomised controlled trial assessed how much the effect of endocrine therapy could be explained by breast density declines in those receiving endocrine therapy. This study evaluated the prevention of invasive breast cancer and DCIS. We found some evidence to support the hypothesis, with a risk ratio interaction point estimate ~0.5. However, the 95% confidence interval included unity, and data were based on 51 women with subsequent breast cancer in the tamoxifen group. The certainty of the evidence was low.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

There is low-/very low-certainty evidence to support the hypothesis that breast density change following endocrine therapy is a prognostic biomarker for treatment or prevention. Studies suggested a potentially large effect size with tamoxifen, but the evidence was limited. There was less evidence that breast density change following tamoxifen preventive therapy is a predictive biomarker than prognostic biomarker. Evidence for breast density change as a prognostic treatment biomarker was stronger for tamoxifen than aromatase inhibitors. There were no studies reporting mammographic density change following endocrine therapy as a predictive biomarker in the treatment setting, nor aromatase inhibitor therapy as a prognostic or predictive biomarker in the preventive setting. Further research is warranted to assess mammographic density as a biomarker for all classes of endocrine therapy and review endpoints.

Prognostic and Predictive Value of HER2 Expression in Ductal Carcinoma In Situ: Results from the UK/ANZ DCIS Randomized Trial

PURPOSE

HER2 is overexpressed more frequently in ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) than in invasive breast cancer but its prognostic significance and predictive role for radiotherapy has not been clearly established. We investigated the prognostic and predictive value of HER2 overexpression in DCIS.

EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN

HER2 expression was evaluated by IHC using the HercepTest™ in samples from UK/ANZ DCIS trial participants (n = 755) with IHC 3+ expression categorized as HER2 positive for primary analyses. Sensitivity analyses included HER2 categorization as negative (IHC 0,1+), equivocal (IHC 2+), and positive (IHC 3+) and analyses restricted to a nested case-control component where 181 cases (with recurrence) were matched to 362 controls by treatment arm and age.

RESULTS

Two-hundred and forty-five (34.4%) of evaluable 713 samples [181 ipsilateral breast events (IBE)] were HER2 positive. HER2 overexpression was associated with significantly increased risk of IBE [HR = 2.29; 95% confidence interval (95% CI), 1.64-3.14; P < 0.0001] and in situ IBE (DCIS-IBE; HR = 2.90; 95% CI, 1.91-4.40; P < 0.0001), but not of invasive IBE (I-IBE; HR = 1.40; 95% CI, 0.81-2.42; P = 0.23; Pheterogeneity = 0.04). Inclusion of HER2 significantly improved [Δχ2 (1d.f.) 12.25; P = 0.0005] a prognostic model of clinicopathological and treatment variables, HER2 being an independent predictor of IBE (multivariate HR = 1.91; 95% CI, 1.33-2.76; P = 0.0004). Radiotherapy benefit in preventing DCIS-IBE was significantly greater (Pheterogeneity = 0.04) in HER2-positive DCIS (HR = 0.16; 95% CI, 0.07-0.41) compared with HER2-negative DCIS (HR = 0.58; 95% CI, 0.28-1.19).

CONCLUSIONS

HER2 overexpression is associated with significantly increased risk of in situ recurrence and is also predictive of radiotherapy benefit, with greater reductions in in situ but not invasive recurrences in HER2-positive DCIS.

Optimising classification of Parkinson's disease based on motor, olfactory, neuropsychiatric and sleep features

Olfactory loss, motor impairment, anxiety/depression, and REM-sleep behaviour disorder (RBD) are prodromal Parkinson’s disease (PD) features. PD risk prediction models typically dichotomize test results and apply likelihood ratios (LRs) to scores above and below cut-offs. We investigate whether LRs for specific test values could enhance classification between PD and controls. PD patient data on smell (UPSIT), possible RBD (RBD Screening Questionnaire), and anxiety/depression (LADS) were taken from the Tracking Parkinson’s study (n = 1046). For motor impairment (BRAIN test) in PD cases, published data were supplemented (n = 87). Control data (HADS for anxiety/depression) were taken from the PREDICT-PD pilot study (n = 1314). UPSIT, RBDSQ, and anxiety/depression data were analysed using logistic regression to determine which items were associated with PD. Gaussian distributions were fitted to BRAIN test scores. LRs were calculated from logistic regression models or score distributions. False-positive rates (FPRs) for specified detection rates (DRs) were calculated. Sixteen odours were associated with PD; LRs for this set ranged from 0.005 to 5511. Six RBDSQ and seven anxiety/depression questions were associated with PD; LRs ranged from 0.35 to 69 and from 0.002 to 402, respectively. BRAIN test LRs ranged from 0.16 to 1311. For a 70% DR, the FPR was 2.4% for the 16 odours, 4.6% for anxiety/depression, 16.0% for the BRAIN test, and 20.0% for the RBDSQ. Specific selections of (prodromal) PD marker features rather than dichotomized marker test results optimize PD classification. Such optimized classification models could improve the ability of algorithms to detect prodromal PD; however, prospective studies are needed to investigate their value for PD-prediction models.

Adherence to National Guidelines on Cervical Screening: A Population-Based Evaluation from a Statewide Registry

In 2012, national recommendations for cervical-cancer screening of women aged 30-64 years were quinquennial human papillomavirus and cytology co-testing or triennial cytology. Data from a state-wide surveillance program in New Mexico demonstrated 65.2% (95% confidence interval [95%CI]= 64.6%% to 65.7%) of women screened in 2019 had negative co-test within the last 3 years. Percentages of women screened in 2013, 2016, and 2019 with a prior negative co-test more than 5 and up to 7 years ago were 2.6% (95% CI = 2.2% to 2.9%), 2.1% (95% CI = 1.9% to 2.2%), and 6.5% (95% CI = 6.2% to 6.8%), respectively (2-sided P trend<.001). Percentages of women screened in 2013, 2016, and 2019 with a prior negative cytology more than 5 and up to 7 years ago were 3.8% (95% CI = 3.7% to 3.9%), 9.0% (95% CI = 8.7% to 9.3%), and 14.9% (95% CI = 14.4% to 15.4%), respectively (2-sided P trend<.001). Thus, in 2019, only 12.7% (95% CI = 12.4% to 13.1%) of the 30,215 women aged 30-64 years underwent co-testing and 27.7% (95% CI = 27.1% to 28.3%) of the 18,733 underwent cytology at the recommended interval. The observed under- and over-screening could result in increases in cervical-cancer incidence and harms and costs, respectively.

Trastuzumab for early-stage, HER2-positive breast cancer: a meta-analysis of 13 864 women in seven randomised trials

BACKGROUND

Trastuzumab targets the extracellular domain of the HER2 protein. Adding trastuzumab to chemotherapy for patients with early-stage, HER2-positive breast cancer reduces the risk of recurrence and death, but is associated with cardiac toxicity. We investigated the long-term benefits and risks of adjuvant trastuzumab on breast cancer recurrence and cause-specific mortality.

METHODS

We did a collaborative meta-analysis of individual patient data from randomised trials assessing chemotherapy plus trastuzumab versus the same chemotherapy alone. Randomised trials that enrolled women with node-negative or node-positive, operable breast cancer were included. We collected individual patient-level data on baseline characteristics, dates and sites of first distant breast cancer recurrence and any previous local recurrence or second primary cancer, and the date and underlying cause of death. Primary outcomes were breast cancer recurrence, breast cancer mortality, death without recurrence, and all-cause mortality. Standard intention-to-treat log-rank analyses, stratified by age, nodal status, oestrogen receptor (ER) status, and trial yielded first-event rate ratios (RRs).

FINDINGS

Seven randomised trials met the inclusion criteria, and included 13 864 patients enrolled between February, 2000, and December, 2005. Mean scheduled treatment duration was 14·4 months and median follow-up was 10·7 years (IQR 9·5 to 11·9). The risks of breast cancer recurrence (RR 0·66, 95% CI 0·62 to 0·71; p<0·0001) and death from breast cancer (0·67, 0·61 to 0·73; p<0·0001) were lower with trastuzumab plus chemotherapy than with chemotherapy alone. Absolute 10-year recurrence risk was reduced by 9·0% (95% CI 7·4 to 10·7; p<0·0001) and 10-year breast cancer mortality was reduced by 6·4% (4·9 to 7·8; p<0·0001), with a 6·5% reduction (5·0 to 8·0; p<0·0001) in all-cause mortality, and no increase in death without recurrence (0·4%, -0·3 to 1·1; p=0·35). The proportional reduction in recurrence was largest in years 0-1 after randomisation (0·53, 99% CI 0·46 to 0·61), with benefits persisting through years 2-4 (0·73, 0·62 to 0·85) and 5-9 (0·80, 0·64 to 1·01), and little follow-up beyond year 10. Proportional recurrence reductions were similar irrespective of recorded patient and tumour characteristics, including ER status. The more high risk the tumour, the larger the absolute reductions in 5-year recurrence (eg, 5·7% [95% CI 3·1 to 8·3], 6·8% [4·7 to 9·0], and 10·7% [7·7 to 13·6] in N0, N1-3, and N4+ disease).

INTERPRETATION

Adding trastuzumab to chemotherapy for early-stage, HER2-positive breast cancer reduces recurrence of, and mortality from, breast cancer by a third, with worthwhile proportional reductions irrespective of recorded patient and tumour characteristics.

FUNDING

Cancer Research UK, UK Medical Research Council.

Performance of an affordable urine self-sampling method for human papillomavirus detection in Mexican women

INTRODUCTION

Urine self-sampling for human papillomavirus (HPV)-based cervical cancer screening is a non-invasive method that offers several logistical advantages and high acceptability, reducing barriers related to low screening coverage. This study developed and evaluated the performance of a low-cost urine self-sampling method for HPV-testing and explored the acceptability and feasibility of potential implementation of this alternative in routine screening.

METHODS

A series of sequential laboratory assays examined the impact of several pre-analytical conditions for obtaining DNA from urine and subsequent HPV detection. Initially, we assessed the effect of ethylaminediaminetetraacetic acid (EDTA) as a DNA preservative examining several variables including EDTA concentration, specimen storage temperature, time between urine collection and DNA extraction, and first-morning micturition versus convenience sample collection. We further evaluated the agreement of HPV-testing between urine and clinician-collected cervical samples among 95 women. Finally, we explored the costs of self-sampling supplies as well as the acceptability and feasibility of urine self-sampling among women and healthcare workers.

RESULTS

Our results revealed higher DNA concentrations were obtained when using a 40mM EDTA solution, storing specimens at 25°C and extracting DNA within 72 hrs. of urine collection, regardless of using first-morning micturition or a convenience sampling. We observed good agreement (Kappa = 0.72) between urine and clinician-collected cervical samples for HPV detection. Furthermore, urine self-sampling was an affordable method (USD 1.10), well accepted among cervical cancer screening users, healthcare workers, and decision-makers.

CONCLUSION

These results suggest urine self-sampling is feasible and appropriate alternative for HPV-testing in HPV-based screening programs in lower-resource contexts.

Uptake of co-testing with HPV and cytology for cervical screening: A population-based evaluation in the United States

OBJECTIVES

Human papillomavirus (HPV) testing for cervical screening has been shown to increase the yield of precancerous disease and reduce the incidence of cervical cancer more than cytology alone. Here we document the state-wide uptake of co-testing with HPV and cytology in women aged 30-64 years as recommended by national and international bodies.

METHODS

Registry-based study of all screening cytology and HPV tests in New Mexico from 2008 to 2019 among women aged 21-64 years, with a focus on cytology negative tests to distinguish co-testing from reflex HPV testing to triage equivocal or mildly abnormal cytology.

RESULTS

A total of 1,704,055 cervical screening tests from 681,440 women aged 21-64 years in the state of New Mexico were identified. The proportion of screening tests which were co-tests rose from 5.6% in 2008 to 84.3% in 2019 among women aged 30-64 years with a marked change from the near exclusive use of the Hybrid Capture II HPV test, (a signal amplified test method) to the use of target amplified HPV tests. The largest increases were seen between 2013 and 2015, reflecting the introduction and adoption of new clinical guidelines. Increases in co-testing were also seen in younger women.

CONCLUSIONS

Co-testing is now well established in women aged 30-64 years, but smaller increases have also been seen at younger ages, although this is not currently recommended. The impact of co-testing on cervical disease outcomes and number of colposcopies and biopsies in routine population settings remain important, especially in young women.

The impact of body mass index on breast cancer incidence among women at increased risk: an observational study from the International Breast Intervention Studies

BACKGROUND

We investigated the association between body mass index (BMI) and breast cancer risk in women at increased risk of breast cancer receiving tamoxifen or anastrozole compared with placebo using data from the International Breast Cancer Intervention Studies [IBIS-I (tamoxifen) and IBIS-II (anastrozole)].

METHODS

Baseline BMI was calculated from nurse assessed height and weight measurements for premenopausal (n = 3138) and postmenopausal (n = 3731) women in IBIS-I and postmenopausal women in IBIS-II (n = 3787). The primary endpoint was any breast cancer event (invasive and ductal carcinoma in situ). We used Cox proportional hazards regression to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) for risk after adjustment for covariates.

RESULTS

There were 582 (IBIS-I) and 248 (IBIS-II) breast cancer events [median follow-up = 16.2 years (IQR 14.4-17.7) and 10.9 years (IQR 8.8-13.0), respectively]. In adjusted analysis, women with a higher BMI had an increased breast cancer risk in both IBIS-I [HR = 1.06 per 5 kg/m2 (0.99-1.15), p = 0.114] and in IBIS-II [HR per 5 kg/m2 = 1.21 (1.09-1.35), p < 0.001]. In IBIS-I, the association between BMI and breast cancer risk was positive in postmenopausal women [adjusted HR per 5 kg/m2 = 1.14 (1.03-1.26), p = 0.01] but not premenopausal women [adjusted HR per 5 kg/m2 = 0.97 (0.86-1.09), p = 0.628]. There was no interaction between BMI and treatment group for breast cancer risk in either IBIS-I (p = 0.62) or IBIS-II (p = 0.55).

CONCLUSIONS

Higher BMI is associated with greater breast cancer risk in postmenopausal women at increased risk of the disease, but no effect was observed in premenopausal women. The lack of interaction between BMI and treatment group on breast cancer risk suggests women are likely to experience benefit from preventive therapy regardless of their BMI. Trial registration Both trials were registered [IBIS-I: ISRCTN91879928 on 24/02/2006, retrospectively registered ( http://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN91879928 ); IBIS-II: ISRCTN31488319 on 07/01/2005, retrospectively registered ( http://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN31488319 )].

A Novel Automated Immunoassay Platform to Evaluate the Association of Adiponectin and Leptin Levels with Breast Cancer Risk

Simple Summary

Adiponectin and leptin are adipokines secreted by the adipose tissue that have been associated with several chronic diseases including cancer. We compared two methods for their measurement and investigated their association with breast cancer. We measured adiponectin and leptin with the automated ELLA platform and a manual commercially available enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) kit on serum samples of women enrolled in two international breast cancer prevention trials. We found a good concordance between the two methods and our results support the association of low adiponectin levels with breast cancer, irrespective of the method used. The take-home message is that ELLA is a very robust platform that represents a step forward for the future use of adipokines, along with other biomarkers, in clinical cancer risk assessment and prevention. Its use should be taken into account whenever biomarkers should be measured in a large cohort of patients for clinical validation or cancer association studies.

Abstract

Adiponectin and leptin are adipokines secreted by the adipose tissue that are associated with several chronic diseases including cancer. We aimed to compare the immunoassay platform ELLA with an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) kit and to assess whether the results of the association analyses with breast cancer risk were dependent on the assay used. We measured adiponectin and leptin with ELLA and ELISA on baseline serum samples of 116 Italian postmenopausal women enrolled in two international breast cancer prevention trials. Results were compared with Deming, Passing–Bablok regression and Bland–Altman plots. Disease-free survival was analyzed with the Cox model. There was a good correlation between the methods for adiponectin and leptin (r > 0.96). We found an increased breast cancer risk for very low adiponectin levels (HR for ELLA = 3.75; 95% CI: 1.37;10.25, p = 0.01), whereas no significant association was found for leptin levels. The disease-free survival curves were almost identical for values obtained with the two methods, for both biomarkers. The ELLA platform showed a good concordance with ELISA for adiponectin and leptin measurements. Our results support the association of very low adiponectin levels with postmenopausal breast cancer risk, irrespective of the method used. The ELLA platform is a time-saving system with high reproducibility, therefore we recommend its use for biomarker assessment.

Estimated and projected burden of multiple sclerosis attributable to smoking and childhood and adolescent high body-mass index: a comparative risk assessment

BACKGROUND

Smoking and childhood and adolescent high body-mass index (BMI) are leading lifestyle-related risk factors of global premature morbidity and mortality, and have been associated with an increased risk of developing multiple sclerosis (MS). This study aims to estimate and project the proportion of MS incidence that could be prevented with elimination of these risk factors.

METHODS

Prevalence estimates of high BMI during childhood/adolescence and smoking in early adulthood, and relative risks of MS, were obtained from published literature. A time-lag of 10 years was assumed between smoking in early adulthood and MS incidence, and a time-lag of 20 years was assumed between childhood/adolescent high BMI and MS incidence. The MS population attributable fractions (PAFs) of smoking and high BMI were estimated as individual and combined risk factors, by age, country and sex in 2015, 2025 and 2035 where feasible.

RESULTS

The combined estimated PAFs for smoking and high BMI in 2015 were 14, 11, 12 and 12% for the UK, USA, Russia and Australia in a conservative estimate, and 21, 20, 19 and 16% in an independent estimate, respectively. Estimates for smoking are declining over time, whereas estimates for high early life BMI are rising. The PAF for high early life BMI is highest in the USA and is estimated to increase to 14% by 2035.

CONCLUSIONS

Assuming causality, there is the potential to substantially reduce MS incidence with the elimination of lifestyle-related modifiable risk factors, which are the target of global public health prevention strategies.

Prognostic Value of ER and PgR Expression and the Impact of Multi-clonal Expression for Recurrence in Ductal Carcinoma in situ: Results from the UK/ANZ DCIS Trial

PURPOSE

The prognostic value of estrogen receptor (ER)/progesterone receptor (PgR) expression in ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) is unclear. We observed multi-clonality when evaluating ER/PgR expression in the UK/ANZ DCIS trial, therefore, we investigated the prognostic role of both uni-clonal and multi-clonal ER/PgR expression in DCIS.

EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN

Formalin-fixed paraffin embedded tissues were collected from UK/ANZ DCIS trial participants (n = 755), and ER/PgR expression was evaluated by IHC in 181 cases (with recurrence) matched to 362 controls by treatment arm and age. Assays were scored by the Allred method and by a newly devised clonal method-analyses categorizing multi-clonal DCIS as ER/PgR-positive as per current practice (Standard) and as ER/PgR-negative (clonal) were performed.

RESULTS

ER expression was multi-clonal in 11% (39/356) of ER-positive (70.6%, 356/504) patients. Ipsilateral breast event (IBE) risk was similarly higher in ER-multi-clonal and ER-negative DCIS as compared with DCIS with uni-clonal ER expression. ER-negative DCIS (clonal) had a higher risk of in situ IBE [OR 4.99; 95% confidence interval (CI), 2.66-9.36; P < 0.0001], but the risk of invasive IBE was not significantly higher (OR 1.72; 95% CI, 0.84-3.53; P = 0.14), P heterogeneity = 0.03. ER was an independent predictor in multivariate analyses (OR 2.66; 95% CI, 1.53-4.61). PgR status did not add to the prognostic information provided by ER.

CONCLUSIONS

ER expression is a strong predictor of ipsilateral recurrence risk in DCIS. ER-positive DCIS with distinct ER-negative clones has a recurrence risk similar to ER-negative DCIS. ER should be routinely assessed in DCIS, and ER scoring should take clonality of expression into account.

Adjunctive testing by cytology, p16/Ki-67 dual-stained cytology or HPV16/18 E6 oncoprotein for the management of HPV16/18 screen-positive women

High-risk human papillomavirus type 16/18 (HPV16/18) genotyping is unable to accurately discriminate nonprogressive infections from those that will progress to cervical cancer. Our study aimed to assesses if additional testing either with liquid-based cytology (LBC) or the putative progression markers p16/Ki-67 and HPV16/18 E6 oncoprotein (E6) can improve the efficiency of HPV16/18 genotyping for triaging high-risk HPV (hrHPV)-positive women through better cancer risk stratification. Women attending colposcopy after positive HPV16/18 genotyping results within the Forwarding Research for Improved Detection and Access for Cervical Cancer Screening and Triage (FRIDA) hrHPV-based screening study in Tlaxcala, Mexico, underwent further testing with LBC, p16/Ki-67 dual-stained (DS) cytology and E6. We calculated measures of test performance for detecting histologically confirmed cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 or higher (CIN2+) and grade 3 or higher (CIN3+). A number of 475 (64.3%) of 739 HPV16/18-positive women had complete results for all tests. Triage positivity rates were 14.1%, 18.5% and 24.4%, for LBC, E6 and DS, respectively. Compared with LBC, DS had higher sensitivity (24.4% vs 60.0%) although lower specificity (87.0% vs 79.3%) for CIN3+ (P < .001), whereas E6 had a sensitivity of 37.8% and a specificity of 83.5%. No invasive cancer was missed by DS or E6, but 75% were in normal cytology. DS test was associated with nearly 75% reduction of colposcopy referrals compared with the direct referral of all HPV16/18-positive women, giving the least number of colposcopies (n = 4.3) per CIN3+ detected. We show that adjunctive testing of HPV16/18-positive women with DS may greatly reduce unnecessary colposcopy referrals within HPV-based screening employing HPV16/18 genotyping while retaining acceptable sensitivity for CIN2+ and CIN3+.

Determinants of Human Papillomavirus Vaccine Uptake by Adult Women Attending Cervical Cancer Screening in 9 European Countries

INTRODUCTION

Human papillomavirus-vaccinated cohorts, irrespective of age, will likely reduce their subsequent screening requirements, thus opening opportunities for global cost reduction and program sustainability. The determinants of uptake and completion of a 3-dose human papillomavirus vaccination program by adult women in a European context were estimated.

STUDY DESIGN

This was an intervention study.

SETTING/PARTICIPANTS

Study participants were women aged 25-45 years, attending opportunistic or population-based cervical cancer screening in Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, and the United Kingdom between April 2016 and May 2018.

INTERVENTION

Study participants completed a questionnaire on awareness and attitudes on adult female human papillomavirus vaccination and were invited to receive free human papillomavirus vaccination.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Main outcome measures were acceptance, uptake, and completion of vaccination schedule. Determinants of vaccine uptake were explored using multilevel logistic models in 2019.

RESULTS

Among 3,646 participants, 2,748 (range by country=50%-96%) accepted vaccination, and 2,151 (range=30%-93%) received the full vaccination course. The factors associated with higher vaccine acceptance were previous awareness of adult female (OR=1.22, 95% CI=1.00, 1.48) and male (OR=1.59, 95% CI=1.28, 1.97) vaccination. Women in stable relationships (OR=0.56, 95% CI=0.45, 0.69) or with higher educational level (OR=0.76, 95% CI=0.63, 0.93) were more likely to refuse vaccination. Recruitment by postal invitation versus personal invitation from a healthcare professional resulted in lower vaccine acceptance (OR=0.13, 95% CI=0.02, 0.76). Vaccination coverage of >70% of adolescent girls in national public programs was of borderline significance in predicting human papillomavirus vaccine uptake (OR=3.23, 95% CI=0.95, 10.97). The main reasons for vaccine refusal were vaccine safety concerns (range=30%-59%) and the need for more information on human papillomavirus vaccines (range=1%-72%). No safety issues were experienced by vaccinated women.

CONCLUSIONS

Acceptance and schedule completion were largely dependent on recruitment method, achieved coverage of national vaccination programs, and personal relationship status. Knowledge of benefits and safety reassurance may be critical to expanding vaccination target ages. Study results suggest that there are no major opinion barriers in adult women to human papillomavirus vaccination, especially when vaccination is offered face to face in healthcare settings.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

EudraCT Number 2014-003177-42.

Consistency of the S5 DNA methylation classifier in formalin-fixed biopsies versus corresponding exfoliated cells for the detection of pre-cancerous cervical lesions

Methylation biomarkers are promising tools for diagnosis and disease prevention. The S5 classifier is aimed at the prevention of cervical cancer by the early detection of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN). S5 is based on pyrosequencing a promoter region of EPB41L3 and five late regions of HPV types 16, 18, 31, and 33 following bisulfite conversion of DNA. Good biomarkers should perform well in a variety of sample types such as exfoliated cells, fresh frozen or formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded (FFPE) materials. Here, we tested the performance of S5 on 315 FFPE biopsies with paired exfoliated cervical samples using four different conversion kits (Epitect Bisulfite, Epitect Fast Bisulfite, EZ DNA Methylation, and EZ DNA Methylation-Lightning). The S5 values from FFPE biopsies for all kits were significantly correlated with those obtained from their paired exfoliated cells. For the EZ DNA Methylation kit, we observed an average increased methylation of 4.4% in FFPE. This was due to incomplete conversion of DNA (73% for FFPE vs. 95% for cells). The other kits had a DNA conversion rate in FFPE similar to the cells (95%-97%). S5 performed well at discriminating Collapse

Key Words

• DNA methylation
• S5 classifier
• biomarker
• cervical cancer
• formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded samples (FFPE)

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MESH Headings

• Adolescent
• Adult
• Aged
• Alphapapillomavirus/genetics
• Area Under Curve
• Biopsy/methods
• Colposcopy
• DNA Methylation
• Female
• Formaldehyde
• Humans
• Microfilament Proteins/genetics
• Middle Aged
• Precancerous Conditions/genetics
• Precancerous Conditions/pathology
• Sensitivity and Specificity
• Sulfites
• Tissue Fixation
• Uterine Cervical Neoplasms/genetics
• Uterine Cervical Neoplasms/pathology
• Young Adult
• Uterine Cervical Dysplasia/genetics
• Uterine Cervical Dysplasia/pathology

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Grants

• 21070 Cancer Research UK
• 27046 Cancer Research UK
• C569/A16891 Cancer Research UK
• Cancer Research UK

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Affiliation(s)

Caroline Reuter Centre for Cancer PreventionWolfson Institute of Preventive MedicineQueen Mary University of LondonLondonUK
Matthew Preece Centre for Cancer PreventionWolfson Institute of Preventive MedicineQueen Mary University of LondonLondonUK
Rawinder Banwait Centre for Cancer PreventionWolfson Institute of Preventive MedicineQueen Mary University of LondonLondonUK
Sabrina Boer Department of UrologyRadboud University Medical CenterRadboud Institute for Molecular Life SciencesNijmegenthe Netherlands
Jack Cuzick Centre for Cancer PreventionWolfson Institute of Preventive MedicineQueen Mary University of LondonLondonUK
Attila Lorincz Centre for Cancer PreventionWolfson Institute of Preventive MedicineQueen Mary University of LondonLondonUK
Belinda Nedjai Centre for Cancer PreventionWolfson Institute of Preventive MedicineQueen Mary University of LondonLondonUK

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