Long-term prediction by DNA methylation of high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia: Results of the ARTISTIC cohort

Methylation markers have shown potential for triaging high-risk HPV-positive (hrHPV+) women to identify those at increased risk of invasive cervical cancer (ICC). Our aim was to assess the performance of the S5 DNA methylation classifier for predicting incident high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) and ICC among hrHPV+ women in the ARTISTIC screening trial cohort. The S5 classifier, comprising target regions of tumour suppressor gene EPB41L3 and L1 and L2 regions of HPV16, HPV18, HPV31, and HPV33, was assayed by pyrosequencing in archived hrHPV+ liquid-based samples from 343 women with high-grade disease (139 CIN2, 186 CIN3, and 18 ICC) compared to 800 hrHPV+ controls. S5 DNA methylation correlated directly with increasing severity of disease and inversely with lead time to diagnosis. S5 could discriminate between hrHPV+ women who developed CIN3 or ICC and hrHPV+ controls (p <.0001) using samples taken on average 5 years before diagnosis. This relationship was independent of cytology at baseline. The S5 test showed much higher sensitivity than HPV16/18 genotyping for identifying prevalent CIN3 (93% vs. 61%, p = .01) but lower specificity (50% vs. 66%, p <.0001). The S5 classifier identified most women at high risk of developing precancer and missed very few prevalent advanced lesions thus appearing to be an objective test for triage of hrHPV+ women. The combination of methylation of host and HPV genes enables S5 to combine the predictive power of methylation with HPV genotyping to identify hrHPV-positive women who are at highest risk of developing CIN3 and ICC in the future.

M-FISH evaluation of chromosome aberrations to examine for historical exposure to ionising radiation due to participation at British nuclear test sites

Veterans of the British nuclear testing programme represent a population of ex-military personnel who had the potential to be exposed to ionising radiation through their participation at nuclear testing sites in the 1950s and 1960s. In the intervening years, members of this population have raised concerns about the status of their health and that of their descendants, as a consequence. Radiation dose estimates based on film badge measurements of external dose recorded at the time of the tests suggest any exposure to be limited for the majority of personnel, however, only ∼20% of personnel were monitored and no measurement for internalised exposure are on record. Here, to in-part address families concerns, we assay for chromosomal evidence of historical radiation exposure in a group of aged nuclear test (NT) veterans, using multiplexin situhybridisation (M-FISH), for comparison with a matched group of veterans who were not present at NT sites. In total, we analysed 9379 and 7698 metaphase cells using M-FISH (24-colour karyotyping) from 48 NT and 38 control veteran samples, representing veteran servicemen from the army, Royal Airforce and Royal Navy. We observed stable and unstable simple- and complex-type chromosome aberrations in both NT and control veterans' samples, however find no significant difference in yield of any chromosome aberration type between the two cohorts. We do observe higher average frequencies of complex chromosome aberrations in a very small subset of veterans previously identified as having a higher potential for radiation exposure, which may be indicative of internalised contamination to long-lived radionuclides from radiation fallout. By utilising recently published whole genome sequence analysis data of a sub-set of the same family groups, we examined for but found no relationship between paternal chromosome aberration burden, germline mutation frequency and self-reported concerns of adverse health in family members, suggesting that the previously reported health issues by participants in this study are unlikely to be associated with historical radiation exposure. We did observe a small number of families, representing both control and NT cohorts, showing a relationship between paternal chromosome aberrations and germline mutation sub-types which should be explored in future studies. In conclusion, we find no cytogenetic evidence of historical radiation exposure in the cohort of nuclear veterans sampled here, offering reassurance that attendance at NTs sites by the veterans sampled here, was not associated with significant levels of exposure to radiation.

Elongate mineral particles (EMP) characteristics and mesothelioma: Summary and resolution for session I of the Monticello II conference

The summary contains a consensus opinion regarding the current state of the science about the dimensions of Elongate Mineral Particles (EMPs) as a factor impacting their carcinogenicity.

Long-term risks of invasive cervical cancer following HPV infection: follow-up of two screening cohorts in Manchester

BACKGROUND

Long-term follow-up of large cohorts is needed to determine the effects of HPV and screening on CIN3 (grade 3 cervical intraepithelial neoplasia) and ICC (invasive cervical cancer).

METHODS

Women were recruited when attending for routine cervical screening in Greater Manchester, UK: 1987-93 for the Manchester Cohort (MC: 47,625 women) and 2001-03 for the ARTISTIC Cohort (AC: 24,496 women). Both were followed through national registration for cancer incidence and mortality to 2020.

RESULTS

Risk patterns following HPV infection differed for CIN3 and ICC. Risk of ICC in the MC rises for 30 years following a single positive HPV test, reaching 2.5% (95% CI: 1.3-4.5%). A similar pattern was seen in the AC, but the risks of cancer were approximately halved. CIN3 was diagnosed much sooner in the AC due to more efficient cytology. More sensitive HPV testing was able to better predict future risk.

CONCLUSION

The sensitivity of HPV testing and cytology influences the CIN3 detection rate. Sensitive HPV testing enables effective risk stratification. Increased risk of ICC is observed 15-30 years after HPV infection. Women testing HPV + should be followed until their infection clears. Discharging women from screening programmes whilst they remain HPV + may not be safe, even if cytology and colposcopy tests are normal.

Aggregation tests identify new gene associations with breast cancer in populations with diverse ancestry

BACKGROUND

Low-frequency variants play an important role in breast cancer (BC) susceptibility. Gene-based methods can increase power by combining multiple variants in the same gene and help identify target genes.

METHODS

We evaluated the potential of gene-based aggregation in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium cohorts including 83,471 cases and 59,199 controls. Low-frequency variants were aggregated for individual genes' coding and regulatory regions. Association results in European ancestry samples were compared to single-marker association results in the same cohort. Gene-based associations were also combined in meta-analysis across individuals with European, Asian, African, and Latin American and Hispanic ancestry.

RESULTS

In European ancestry samples, 14 genes were significantly associated (q < 0.05) with BC. Of those, two genes, FMNL3 (P = 6.11 × 10-6) and AC058822.1 (P = 1.47 × 10-4), represent new associations. High FMNL3 expression has previously been linked to poor prognosis in several other cancers. Meta-analysis of samples with diverse ancestry discovered further associations including established candidate genes ESR1 and CBLB. Furthermore, literature review and database query found further support for a biologically plausible link with cancer for genes CBLB, FMNL3, FGFR2, LSP1, MAP3K1, and SRGAP2C.

CONCLUSIONS

Using extended gene-based aggregation tests including coding and regulatory variation, we report identification of plausible target genes for previously identified single-marker associations with BC as well as the discovery of novel genes implicated in BC development. Including multi ancestral cohorts in this study enabled the identification of otherwise missed disease associations as ESR1 (P = 1.31 × 10-5), demonstrating the importance of diversifying study cohorts.

Physical activity, sedentary time and breast cancer risk: a Mendelian randomisation study

OBJECTIVES

Physical inactivity and sedentary behaviour are associated with higher breast cancer risk in observational studies, but ascribing causality is difficult. Mendelian randomisation (MR) assesses causality by simulating randomised trial groups using genotype. We assessed whether lifelong physical activity or sedentary time, assessed using genotype, may be causally associated with breast cancer risk overall, pre/post-menopause, and by case-groups defined by tumour characteristics.

METHODS

We performed two-sample inverse-variance-weighted MR using individual-level Breast Cancer Association Consortium case-control data from 130 957 European-ancestry women (69 838 invasive cases), and published UK Biobank data (n=91 105-377 234). Genetic instruments were single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated in UK Biobank with wrist-worn accelerometer-measured overall physical activity (nsnps=5) or sedentary time (nsnps=6), or accelerometer-measured (nsnps=1) or self-reported (nsnps=5) vigorous physical activity.

RESULTS

Greater genetically-predicted overall activity was associated with lower breast cancer overall risk (OR=0.59; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.42 to 0.83 per-standard deviation (SD;~8 milligravities acceleration)) and for most case-groups. Genetically-predicted vigorous activity was associated with lower risk of pre/perimenopausal breast cancer (OR=0.62; 95% CI 0.45 to 0.87,≥3 vs. 0 self-reported days/week), with consistent estimates for most case-groups. Greater genetically-predicted sedentary time was associated with higher hormone-receptor-negative tumour risk (OR=1.77; 95% CI 1.07 to 2.92 per-SD (~7% time spent sedentary)), with elevated estimates for most case-groups. Results were robust to sensitivity analyses examining pleiotropy (including weighted-median-MR, MR-Egger).

CONCLUSION

Our study provides strong evidence that greater overall physical activity, greater vigorous activity, and lower sedentary time are likely to reduce breast cancer risk. More widespread adoption of active lifestyles may reduce the burden from the most common cancer in women.

British nuclear test veteran family trios for the study of genetic risk

The risk of radiation effects in children of individuals exposed to ionising radiation remains an ongoing concern for aged veterans of the British nuclear testing programme. The genetic and cytogenetic family trio (GCFT) study is the first study to obtain blood samples from a group of British nuclear test veterans and their families for the purposes of identifying genetic alterations in offspring as a consequence of historical paternal exposure to ionising radiation. In this report, we describe the processes for recruitment and sampling, and provide a general description of the study population recruited. In total, blood samples were received from 91 (49 test and 42 control) families representing veteran servicemen from the army, Royal Air Force and Royal Navy. This translated to an overall response rate of 14% (49/353) for test veterans and 4% (42/992) for control veterans (excluding responders known to be ineligible). Due to the lack of dose information available, test veterans were allocated to a three-point exposure rank. Thirty (61%) test veterans were ranked in the lower group. Nineteen (39%) of the 49 test veterans were classified in the mid (5 veterans; 10%)/high (14 veterans; 29%) exposure ranks and included 12 veterans previously identified as belonging to the special groups or listed in health physics documents. An increased number of test veteran families (20%), compared with control families (5%), self-reported offspring with congenital abnormalities (p= 0.03). Whether this observation in this small group is reflective of the entire UK test veteran cohort or whether it is selection bias requires further work. The cohort described here represent an important and unique family trio grouping whose participation is enabling genetic studies, as part of the GCFT study, to be carried out. The outcomes of these studies will be published elsewhere. ISRCTN Registry: 17461668.

Common variants in breast cancer risk loci predispose to distinct tumor subtypes

BACKGROUND

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified multiple common breast cancer susceptibility variants. Many of these variants have differential associations by estrogen receptor (ER) status, but how these variants relate with other tumor features and intrinsic molecular subtypes is unclear.

METHODS

Among 106,571 invasive breast cancer cases and 95,762 controls of European ancestry with data on 173 breast cancer variants identified in previous GWAS, we used novel two-stage polytomous logistic regression models to evaluate variants in relation to multiple tumor features (ER, progesterone receptor (PR), human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) and grade) adjusting for each other, and to intrinsic-like subtypes.

RESULTS

Eighty-five of 173 variants were associated with at least one tumor feature (false discovery rate < 5%), most commonly ER and grade, followed by PR and HER2. Models for intrinsic-like subtypes found nearly all of these variants (83 of 85) associated at p < 0.05 with risk for at least one luminal-like subtype, and approximately half (41 of 85) of the variants were associated with risk of at least one non-luminal subtype, including 32 variants associated with triple-negative (TN) disease. Ten variants were associated with risk of all subtypes in different magnitude. Five variants were associated with risk of luminal A-like and TN subtypes in opposite directions.

CONCLUSION

This report demonstrates a high level of complexity in the etiology heterogeneity of breast cancer susceptibility variants and can inform investigations of subtype-specific risk prediction.

Mendelian randomisation study of smoking exposure in relation to breast cancer risk

BACKGROUND

Despite a modest association between tobacco smoking and breast cancer risk reported by recent epidemiological studies, it is still equivocal whether smoking is causally related to breast cancer risk.

METHODS

We applied Mendelian randomisation (MR) to evaluate a potential causal effect of cigarette smoking on breast cancer risk. Both individual-level data as well as summary statistics for 164 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) reported in genome-wide association studies of lifetime smoking index (LSI) or cigarette per day (CPD) were used to obtain MR effect estimates. Data from 108,420 invasive breast cancer cases and 87,681 controls were used for the LSI analysis and for the CPD analysis conducted among ever-smokers from 26,147 cancer cases and 26,072 controls. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to address pleiotropy.

RESULTS

Genetically predicted LSI was associated with increased breast cancer risk (OR 1.18 per SD, 95% CI: 1.07-1.30, P = 0.11 × 10-2), but there was no evidence of association for genetically predicted CPD (OR 1.02, 95% CI: 0.78-1.19, P = 0.85). The sensitivity analyses yielded similar results and showed no strong evidence of pleiotropic effect.

CONCLUSION

Our MR study provides supportive evidence for a potential causal association with breast cancer risk for lifetime smoking exposure but not cigarettes per day among smokers.

Weekly population testing could stop this pandemic and prevent the next

The rapid spread of the SARS-COV-2 delta variant in the UK despite high vaccination coverage will inevitably accelerate when social restrictions end unless testing and contact tracing become much more effective. To minimize further social and economic damage, the effect on R of introducing weekly population testing as social restrictions are relaxed should be evaluated. The large increase in testing capacity required can be achieved with self-taken saliva samples analysed by RT-LAMP in local testing facilities. The costs and effectiveness can be evaluated in whole-city demonstration studies. A local population register in each city or district is essential to issue weekly invitations, manage sample collection, monitor results and achieve rapid notification of households and other contacts when a test is positive. In the UK, weekly test invitations should be managed, like vaccination invitations, by the NHS, with social and financial support for quarantined households to make self-isolation acceptable. A framework for effective population testing that had been established and evaluated during this pandemic could be rapidly reinstated to suppress the next pandemic while vaccines for a new and perhaps more deadly virus are developed and rolled out.

Functional annotation of the 2q35 breast cancer risk locus implicates a structural variant in influencing activity of a long-range enhancer element

A combination of genetic and functional approaches has identified three independent breast cancer risk loci at 2q35. A recent fine-scale mapping analysis to refine these associations resulted in 1 (signal 1), 5 (signal 2), and 42 (signal 3) credible causal variants at these loci. We used publicly available in silico DNase I and ChIP-seq data with in vitro reporter gene and CRISPR assays to annotate signals 2 and 3. We identified putative regulatory elements that enhanced cell-type-specific transcription from the IGFBP5 promoter at both signals (30- to 40-fold increased expression by the putative regulatory element at signal 2, 2- to 3-fold by the putative regulatory element at signal 3). We further identified one of the five credible causal variants at signal 2, a 1.4 kb deletion (esv3594306), as the likely causal variant; the deletion allele of this variant was associated with an average additional increase in IGFBP5 expression of 1.3-fold (MCF-7) and 2.2-fold (T-47D). We propose a model in which the deletion allele of esv3594306 juxtaposes two transcription factor binding regions (annotated by estrogen receptor alpha ChIP-seq peaks) to generate a single extended regulatory element. This regulatory element increases cell-type-specific expression of the tumor suppressor gene IGFBP5 and, thereby, reduces risk of estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer (odds ratio = 0.77, 95% CI 0.74-0.81, p = 3.1 × 10-31).

Author Correction: A case-only study to identify genetic modifiers of breast cancer risk for BRCA1/BRCA2 mutation carriers

A Correction to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-23162-4

A case-only study to identify genetic modifiers of breast cancer risk for BRCA1/BRCA2 mutation carriers

Breast cancer (BC) risk for BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers varies by genetic and familial factors. About 50 common variants have been shown to modify BC risk for mutation carriers. All but three, were identified in general population studies. Other mutation carrier-specific susceptibility variants may exist but studies of mutation carriers have so far been underpowered. We conduct a novel case-only genome-wide association study comparing genotype frequencies between 60,212 general population BC cases and 13,007 cases with BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutations. We identify robust novel associations for 2 variants with BC for BRCA1 and 3 for BRCA2 mutation carriers, P < 10-8, at 5 loci, which are not associated with risk in the general population. They include rs60882887 at 11p11.2 where MADD, SP11 and EIF1, genes previously implicated in BC biology, are predicted as potential targets. These findings will contribute towards customising BC polygenic risk scores for BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers.

CYP3A7*1C allele: linking premenopausal oestrone and progesterone levels with risk of hormone receptor-positive breast cancers

BACKGROUND

Epidemiological studies provide strong evidence for a role of endogenous sex hormones in the aetiology of breast cancer. The aim of this analysis was to identify genetic variants that are associated with urinary sex-hormone levels and breast cancer risk.

METHODS

We carried out a genome-wide association study of urinary oestrone-3-glucuronide and pregnanediol-3-glucuronide levels in 560 premenopausal women, with additional analysis of progesterone levels in 298 premenopausal women. To test for the association with breast cancer risk, we carried out follow-up genotyping in 90,916 cases and 89,893 controls from the Breast Cancer Association Consortium. All women were of European ancestry.

RESULTS

For pregnanediol-3-glucuronide, there were no genome-wide significant associations; for oestrone-3-glucuronide, we identified a single peak mapping to the CYP3A locus, annotated by rs45446698. The minor rs45446698-C allele was associated with lower oestrone-3-glucuronide (-49.2%, 95% CI -56.1% to -41.1%, P = 3.1 × 10-18); in follow-up analyses, rs45446698-C was also associated with lower progesterone (-26.7%, 95% CI -39.4% to -11.6%, P = 0.001) and reduced risk of oestrogen and progesterone receptor-positive breast cancer (OR = 0.86, 95% CI 0.82-0.91, P = 6.9 × 10-8).

CONCLUSIONS

The CYP3A7*1C allele is associated with reduced risk of hormone receptor-positive breast cancer possibly mediated via an effect on the metabolism of endogenous sex hormones in premenopausal women.

Modelling the health and economic impacts of different testing and tracing strategies for COVID-19 in the UK

Background: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is resurgent in the UK and health and economic costs of the epidemic continue to rise. There is a need to understand the health and economic costs of different courses of action. Methods: We combine modelling, economic analysis and a user-friendly interface to contrast the impact and costs of different testing strategies: two levels of testing within the current test-trace-isolate (TTI) strategy (testing symptomatic people, tracing and isolating everyone) and a strategy where TTI is combined with universal testing (UT; i.e. additional population testing to identify asymptomatic cases). We also model effective coverage of face masks. Results: Increased testing is necessary to suppress the virus after lockdown. Partial reopening accompanied by scaled-up TTI (at 50% test and trace levels), full isolation and moderately effective coverage of masks (30% reduction in overall transmission) can reduce the current resurgence of the virus and protect the economy in the UK. Additional UT from December 2020 reduces the epidemic dramatically by Jan 2021 when combined with enhanced TTI (70% test-trace levels) and full isolation. UT could then be stopped; continued TTI would prevent rapid recurrence. This TTI+UT combination can suppress the virus further to save ~20,000 more lives and avoid ~£90bn economic losses, though costs ~£8bn more to deliver. We assume that all traced and lab-confirmed cases are isolated. The flexible interface we have developed allows exploration of additional scenarios, including different levels of reopening of society after the second lockdown in England as well as different levels of effective mask coverage. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that increased TTI is necessary to suppress the virus and protect the economy after the second lockdown in England. Additional UT from December 2020 reduces the epidemic dramatically by Jan 2021 and could then be stopped, as continued TTI would prevent rapid recurrence.

Breast Cancer Polygenic Risk Score and Contralateral Breast Cancer Risk

Previous research has shown that polygenic risk scores (PRSs) can be used to stratify women according to their risk of developing primary invasive breast cancer. This study aimed to evaluate the association between a recently validated PRS of 313 germline variants (PRS313) and contralateral breast cancer (CBC) risk. We included 56,068 women of European ancestry diagnosed with first invasive breast cancer from 1990 onward with follow-up from the Breast Cancer Association Consortium. Metachronous CBC risk (N = 1,027) according to the distribution of PRS313 was quantified using Cox regression analyses. We assessed PRS313 interaction with age at first diagnosis, family history, morphology, ER status, PR status, and HER2 status, and (neo)adjuvant therapy. In studies of Asian women, with limited follow-up, CBC risk associated with PRS313 was assessed using logistic regression for 340 women with CBC compared with 12,133 women with unilateral breast cancer. Higher PRS313 was associated with increased CBC risk: hazard ratio per standard deviation (SD) = 1.25 (95%CI = 1.18-1.33) for Europeans, and an OR per SD = 1.15 (95%CI = 1.02-1.29) for Asians. The absolute lifetime risks of CBC, accounting for death as competing risk, were 12.4% for European women at the 10th percentile and 20.5% at the 90th percentile of PRS313. We found no evidence of confounding by or interaction with individual characteristics, characteristics of the primary tumor, or treatment. The C-index for the PRS313 alone was 0.563 (95%CI = 0.547-0.586). In conclusion, PRS313 is an independent factor associated with CBC risk and can be incorporated into CBC risk prediction models to help improve stratification and optimize surveillance and treatment strategies.

Cohabitation, infection and breast cancer risk

For 50 years, the effect of age at first birth (AFB) has been thought to explain the strong association between breast cancer risk and age at first marriage (AFM), which was first reported in 1926. The independent effects of AFM, AFB and number of sexual partners adjusted for parity and other risk factors were estimated in reanalysis of a large international case-control study conducted in 1979 to 1982 (2274 breast cancers, 18209 controls) by unconditional logistic regression. Respective AFB and AFM breast cancer odds ratios (ORs) for ≥31 years relative to ≤18 years were 3.01 (95% CI 2.44-3.71; P(trend) < .0001) and 3.24 (95% CI 2.62-4.01; P(trend) < .0001) in univariate analyses. Among married parous women, these ORs fell to 1.38 (95% CI 0.98-1.95; P(trend) < .03) for AFB and 1.70 (95% CI 1.17-2.46; P(trend) < .002) for AFM when fitted together in multivariate analysis including other risk factors. A similar adjusted OR for AFM ≥ 31 years relative to ≤18 years was seen among married nulliparous women (OR 1.71, 95% CI 0.98-2.98; P(trend) < .001). AFM (a surrogate for age at starting prolonged cohabitation) is thus strongly associated with breast cancer risk. This suggests an effect of close contact. Identifying the (probably infective) mechanism might lead to effective prevention of breast cancer. The independent effect of AFB is smaller and could be due to residual confounding.

HPV testing compared with routine cytology in cervical screening: long-term follow-up of ARTISTIC RCT

BACKGROUND

The National Screening Committee (NSC) based its recommendation that human papillomavirus (HPV) testing should replace cytology in primary cervical screening largely on the 2009 follow-up results of the ARTISTIC trial (A Randomised Trial In Screening To Improve Cytology). The NSC must now decide on screening intervals and triage policy. Options include extending the screening interval up to 10 years for human papillomavirus-negative (HPV-) women, delaying recall for human papillomavirus-positive (HPV+) women with normal cytology (as their infections are usually transient), and basing triage on full HPV typing.

METHODS

In ARTISTIC, 24,510 women were recruited who were attending routine cervical cytology in Greater Manchester in 2001-3. The women were randomly allocated between revealing and concealing their HPV test results and were recalled every 3 years. After 2009, the women returned to routine cytological screening with recall every 3 years for those aged < 50 years, and every 5 years for those aged 50-64 years. We have followed the cohort to 2015 through national cancer registration for CIN3 (cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3) and cancer, and through linkage to the cervical screening call-recall system to obtain lifetime cytology records.

RESULTS

The analysis comprised 24,496 women at round 1 and 13,591 women at round 2 (which was 30-48 months later). Follow-up via local histology laboratories and national cancer registration identified 505 cases of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 or cervical cancer (CIN3+) (including 22 invasive cervical cancers). The cumulative CIN3+ risk 10 years after a negative HPV test [0.31%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.18% to 0.49%, in the revealed arm] was similar to that 3 years after negative cytology (0.30%, 95% CI 0.23% to 0.41%, in the concealed arm) and fell sharply with age, from 1.1% (95% CI 0.7% to 1.8%) in those women aged < 25 years to 0.08% (95% CI 0.03% to 0.20%) in those women aged > 50 years. The 10-year cumulative CIN3+ risk following a new HPV infection at round 2 was 3.4% (95% CI 2.1% to 5.4%). The highest risks were associated with type-specific persistent infections that, overall, resulted in a 10-year cumulative CIN3+ risk of 20.4% (95% CI 15.6% to 26.4%).

CONCLUSIONS

We found a similar level of protection 10 years after a negative HPV test and 3 years after negative cytology. These data support a considerably longer screening interval after a negative HPV test than after a negative cytology test. About three-quarters of women with HPV infection and normal cytology clear their infections within about 3 years. Their risk of CIN3+ within this time frame is low (1.5%), suggesting that the current policy of annual repeat testing and referral after 2 years may be unnecessarily cautious. Approximately 40% of women who remained HPV+ had cleared their initial infection and acquired a new HPV type. The cumulative CIN3+ risks in women with type-specific persistent infections are about six times higher than in women with new infections. Triage strategies based on HPV persistence would, therefore, reduce unnecessary referral of women with new (and largely transient) infections. HPV assays that identify HPV types 31, 33, 45, 52 and 58 in addition to 16 and 18 could be useful in triage as well as in primary HPV testing. Similar results in recent routine HPV screening suggest that our results are generalisable despite changes in cytology and HPV assay methods. We are continuing to follow the ARTISTIC cohort into the new era of primary HPV screening. Future work will focus on the implications of more sensitive HPV testing for primary HPV screening policy and triage of HPV-positive women. Our results suggest that a more sensitive test is needed to detect occult CIN3 at high risk of progression to cancer, but this would substantially increase the overall HPV detection rate. Tests such as DNA (deoxyribonucleic acid) methylation for distinguishing HPV infection from neoplasia will be evaluated on stored samples and on further samples now being collected from women in the cohort who are still being screened.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 23, No. 28. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Perioperative intravenous contrast administration and the incidence of acute kidney injury after major gastrointestinal surgery: prospective, multicentre cohort study

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to determine the impact of preoperative exposure to intravenous contrast for CT and the risk of developing postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI) in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery.

METHODS

This prospective, multicentre cohort study included adults undergoing gastrointestinal resection, stoma reversal or liver resection. Both elective and emergency procedures were included. Preoperative exposure to intravenous contrast was defined as exposure to contrast administered for the purposes of CT up to 7 days before surgery. The primary endpoint was the rate of AKI within 7 days. Propensity score-matched models were adjusted for patient, disease and operative variables. In a sensitivity analysis, a propensity score-matched model explored the association between preoperative exposure to contrast and AKI in the first 48 h after surgery.

RESULTS

A total of 5378 patients were included across 173 centres. Overall, 1249 patients (23·2 per cent) received intravenous contrast. The overall rate of AKI within 7 days of surgery was 13·4 per cent (718 of 5378). In the propensity score-matched model, preoperative exposure to contrast was not associated with AKI within 7 days (odds ratio (OR) 0·95, 95 per cent c.i. 0·73 to 1·21; P = 0·669). The sensitivity analysis showed no association between preoperative contrast administration and AKI within 48 h after operation (OR 1·09, 0·84 to 1·41; P = 0·498).

CONCLUSION

There was no association between preoperative intravenous contrast administered for CT up to 7 days before surgery and postoperative AKI. Risk of contrast-induced nephropathy should not be used as a reason to avoid contrast-enhanced CT.

Transcriptome-wide association study of breast cancer risk by estrogen-receptor status

Previous transcriptome-wide association studies (TWAS) have identified breast cancer risk genes by integrating data from expression quantitative loci and genome-wide association studies (GWAS), but analyses of breast cancer subtype-specific associations have been limited. In this study, we conducted a TWAS using gene expression data from GTEx and summary statistics from the hitherto largest GWAS meta-analysis conducted for breast cancer overall, and by estrogen receptor subtypes (ER+ and ER-). We further compared associations with ER+ and ER- subtypes, using a case-only TWAS approach. We also conducted multigene conditional analyses in regions with multiple TWAS associations. Two genes, STXBP4 and HIST2H2BA, were specifically associated with ER+ but not with ER- breast cancer. We further identified 30 TWAS-significant genes associated with overall breast cancer risk, including four that were not identified in previous studies. Conditional analyses identified single independent breast-cancer gene in three of six regions harboring multiple TWAS-significant genes. Our study provides new information on breast cancer genetics and biology, particularly about genomic differences between ER+ and ER- breast cancer.

Germline HOXB13 mutations p.G84E and p.R217C do not confer an increased breast cancer risk

In breast cancer, high levels of homeobox protein Hox-B13 (HOXB13) have been associated with disease progression of ER-positive breast cancer patients and resistance to tamoxifen treatment. Since HOXB13 p.G84E is a prostate cancer risk allele, we evaluated the association between HOXB13 germline mutations and breast cancer risk in a previous study consisting of 3,270 familial non-BRCA1/2 breast cancer cases and 2,327 controls from the Netherlands. Although both recurrent HOXB13 mutations p.G84E and p.R217C were not associated with breast cancer risk, the risk estimation for p.R217C was not very precise. To provide more conclusive evidence regarding the role of HOXB13 in breast cancer susceptibility, we here evaluated the association between HOXB13 mutations and increased breast cancer risk within 81 studies of the international Breast Cancer Association Consortium containing 68,521 invasive breast cancer patients and 54,865 controls. Both HOXB13 p.G84E and p.R217C did not associate with the development of breast cancer in European women, neither in the overall analysis (OR = 1.035, 95% CI = 0.859-1.246, P = 0.718 and OR = 0.798, 95% CI = 0.482-1.322, P = 0.381 respectively), nor in specific high-risk subgroups or breast cancer subtypes. Thus, although involved in breast cancer progression, HOXB13 is not a material breast cancer susceptibility gene.

Weekly COVID-19 testing with household quarantine and contact tracing is feasible and would probably end the epidemic

The COVID-19 epidemic can probably be ended and normal life restored, perhaps quite quickly, by weekly SARS-CoV-2 RNA testing together with household quarantine and systematic contact tracing. Isolated outbreaks could then be contained by contact tracing, supplemented if necessary by temporary local reintroduction of population testing or lockdown. Leading public health experts have recommended that this should be tried in a demonstration project in which a medium-sized city introduces weekly testing and lifts lockdown completely. The idea was not considered by the groups whose predictions have guided UK policy, so we have examined the statistical case for such a study. The combination of regular testing with strict household quarantine, which was not analysed in their models, has remarkable power to reduce transmission to the community from other household members as well as providing earlier diagnosis and facilitating rapid contact tracing.

Genome-wide association study identifies 32 novel breast cancer susceptibility loci from overall and subtype-specific analyses

Breast cancer susceptibility variants frequently show heterogeneity in associations by tumor subtype1-3. To identify novel loci, we performed a genome-wide association study including 133,384 breast cancer cases and 113,789 controls, plus 18,908 BRCA1 mutation carriers (9,414 with breast cancer) of European ancestry, using both standard and novel methodologies that account for underlying tumor heterogeneity by estrogen receptor, progesterone receptor and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 status and tumor grade. We identified 32 novel susceptibility loci (P < 5.0 × 10-8), 15 of which showed evidence for associations with at least one tumor feature (false discovery rate < 0.05). Five loci showed associations (P < 0.05) in opposite directions between luminal and non-luminal subtypes. In silico analyses showed that these five loci contained cell-specific enhancers that differed between normal luminal and basal mammary cells. The genetic correlations between five intrinsic-like subtypes ranged from 0.35 to 0.80. The proportion of genome-wide chip heritability explained by all known susceptibility loci was 54.2% for luminal A-like disease and 37.6% for triple-negative disease. The odds ratios of polygenic risk scores, which included 330 variants, for the highest 1% of quantiles compared with middle quantiles were 5.63 and 3.02 for luminal A-like and triple-negative disease, respectively. These findings provide an improved understanding of genetic predisposition to breast cancer subtypes and will inform the development of subtype-specific polygenic risk scores.

High-dose oral vitamin D supplementation and mortality in people aged 65-84 years: the VIDAL cluster feasibility RCT of open versus double-blind individual randomisation

BACKGROUND

Randomised controlled trials demonstrating improved longevity are needed to justify high-dose vitamin D supplementation for older populations.

OBJECTIVES

To demonstrate the feasibility of a large trial (n ≈ 20,000) of high-dose vitamin D in people aged 65-84 years through general practitioner (GP) practices, and to cluster randomise participating practices between open-label and double-blind randomisation to compare effects on recruitment, compliance and contamination.

DESIGN

Twenty GP practices were randomised in matched pairs between open-label and double-blind allocation. Within each practice, patients were individually randomised to vitamin D or control (i.e. no treatment or placebo). Participants were invited to attend their GP practice to provide a blood sample and complete a lifestyle questionnaire at recruitment and again at 2 years. Randomisation by telephone followed receipt of a serum corrected calcium assay confirming eligibility (< 2.65 nmol/l). Treatment compliance was reported by quarterly follow-up forms sent and returned by e-mail or post (participant choice). GP visits and infections were abstracted from GP records. Hospital attendances, cancer diagnoses and deaths were ascertained by linkage to Hospital Episode Statistics and national registration through NHS Digital.

SETTING

GP practices in England.

PARTICIPANTS

Recruitment opened in October 2013 and closed in January 2015. A total of 1615 registered patients aged 65-84 years were randomised: 407 to vitamin D and 421 to no treatment in open practices; 395 to vitamin D and 392 to placebo in blind practices.

INTERVENTIONS

There was a 24-month treatment period: 12 monthly doses (100,000 IU of vitamin D3 or placebo as 5 ml oily solution) were posted after randomisation and at 1 year (100,000 IU per month corresponds to 3300 IU per day). Reminders were sent monthly by e-mail, text message or post.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Recruitment, compliance, contamination and change in circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] from baseline to 2 years.

RESULTS

Participation rates (randomised/invited) were 15.0% in open practices and 13.4% in double-blind practices (p = 0.7). The proportion still taking study medication at 2 years was 91.2% in open practices and 89.2% in double-blind practices (p = 0.4). The proportion of control participants taking > 400 IU vitamin D per day at 2 years was 5.0% in open practices and 4.8% in double-blind practices. Mean serum 25(OH)D concentration was 51.5 nmol/l [95% confidence interval (CI) 50.2 to 52.8 nmol/l] with 82.6% of participants < 75 nmol/l at baseline. At 2 years, this increased to 109.6 nmol/l (95% CI 107.1 to 112.1 nmol/l) with 12.0% < 75 nmol/l in those allocated to vitamin D and was unaltered at 51.8 nmol/l (95% CI 49.8 to 53.8 nmol/l) in those allocated to no vitamin D (no treatment or placebo).

CONCLUSIONS

A trial could recruit 20,000 participants aged 65-84 years through 200 GP practices over 2 years. Approximately 80% would be expected to adhere to allocated treatment (vitamin D or placebo) for 5 years. The trial could be conducted entirely by e-mail in participants aged < 80 years, but some participants aged 80-84 years would require postal follow-up. Recruitment and treatment compliance would be similar and contamination (self-administration of vitamin D) would be minimal, whether control participants are randomised openly to no treatment with no contact during the trial or randomised double-blind to placebo with monthly reminders.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN46328341 and EudraCT database 2011-003699-34.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 24, No. 10. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Fine-mapping of 150 breast cancer risk regions identifies 191 likely target genes

Genome-wide association studies have identified breast cancer risk variants in over 150 genomic regions, but the mechanisms underlying risk remain largely unknown. These regions were explored by combining association analysis with in silico genomic feature annotations. We defined 205 independent risk-associated signals with the set of credible causal variants in each one. In parallel, we used a Bayesian approach (PAINTOR) that combines genetic association, linkage disequilibrium and enriched genomic features to determine variants with high posterior probabilities of being causal. Potentially causal variants were significantly over-represented in active gene regulatory regions and transcription factor binding sites. We applied our INQUSIT pipeline for prioritizing genes as targets of those potentially causal variants, using gene expression (expression quantitative trait loci), chromatin interaction and functional annotations. Known cancer drivers, transcription factors and genes in the developmental, apoptosis, immune system and DNA integrity checkpoint gene ontology pathways were over-represented among the highest-confidence target genes.

Triaging women with human papillomavirus infection and normal cytology or low-grade dyskaryosis: evidence from 10-year follow up of the ARTISTIC trial cohort

Objectives

To estimate long‐term cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 (CIN3) risks associated with different triage strategies for human papillomavirus positive (HPV+) women with a view to reducing unnecessary referrals.

Design

The ARTISTIC trial cohort was recruited in Manchester in 2001–03 and was followed up for CIN3 and cancer notification through national registration until December 2015.

Results

The 10‐year cumulative risk of CIN3+ was much higher for women with HPV16/18 infection (19.4%, 95% CI 15.8–23.8% with borderline/low‐grade cytology and 10.7%, 95% CI 8.3–13.9% with normal cytology) than for those with other HPV types (7.3%, 95% CI 5.4–9.7% with borderline/low‐grade cytology and 3.2%, 95% CI 2.2–4.5% with normal cytology). Among the 379 women with normal to low‐grade cytology and new HPV infection, the 10‐year cumulative CIN3+ risk was 2.9% (95% CI 1.6–5.2%).

Conclusions

The CIN3 risk is confined to women with persistent type‐specific HPV so partial genotyping test assays identifying HPV16/18 as a minimum are essential for efficient risk stratification. Immediate referral to colposcopy for HPV+ women with borderline or low‐grade cytology and referral after a year if still HPV+ with normal cytology may be unnecessary. Low‐grade lesions can safely be retested to identify those with persistent HPV. Recall intervals of 1 year for HPV16/18 and 2 years for other high‐risk HPVs are justified for women with normal cytology and might also be considered for women with borderline/low‐grade cytology. The minimal risk of invasive cancer that has progressed beyond stage 1A must be weighed against the advantages for patients and the NHS of reducing the number of referrals to colposcopy.

Tweetable abstract

Cervical screening would be better for women and cheaper for the NHS if women with HPV and normal to low‐grade cytology were retested after a year or two when many infections will have cleared.

Cervical screening would be better for women and cheaper for the NHS if women with HPV and normal to low‐grade cytology were retested after a year or two when many infections will have cleared.

The FANCM:p.Arg658* truncating variant is associated with risk of triple-negative breast cancer

Breast cancer is a common disease partially caused by genetic risk factors. Germline pathogenic variants in DNA repair genes BRCA1, BRCA2, PALB2, ATM, and CHEK2 are associated with breast cancer risk. FANCM, which encodes for a DNA translocase, has been proposed as a breast cancer predisposition gene, with greater effects for the ER-negative and triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) subtypes. We tested the three recurrent protein-truncating variants FANCM:p.Arg658*, p.Gln1701*, and p.Arg1931* for association with breast cancer risk in 67,112 cases, 53,766 controls, and 26,662 carriers of pathogenic variants of BRCA1 or BRCA2. These three variants were also studied functionally by measuring survival and chromosome fragility in FANCM -/- patient-derived immortalized fibroblasts treated with diepoxybutane or olaparib. We observed that FANCM:p.Arg658* was associated with increased risk of ER-negative disease and TNBC (OR = 2.44, P = 0.034 and OR = 3.79; P = 0.009, respectively). In a country-restricted analysis, we confirmed the associations detected for FANCM:p.Arg658* and found that also FANCM:p.Arg1931* was associated with ER-negative breast cancer risk (OR = 1.96; P = 0.006). The functional results indicated that all three variants were deleterious affecting cell survival and chromosome stability with FANCM:p.Arg658* causing more severe phenotypes. In conclusion, we confirmed that the two rare FANCM deleterious variants p.Arg658* and p.Arg1931* are risk factors for ER-negative and TNBC subtypes. Overall our data suggest that the effect of truncating variants on breast cancer risk may depend on their position in the gene. Cell sensitivity to olaparib exposure, identifies a possible therapeutic option to treat FANCM-associated tumors.

Two truncating variants in FANCC and breast cancer risk

Fanconi anemia (FA) is a genetically heterogeneous disorder with 22 disease-causing genes reported to date. In some FA genes, monoallelic mutations have been found to be associated with breast cancer risk, while the risk associations of others remain unknown. The gene for FA type C, FANCC, has been proposed as a breast cancer susceptibility gene based on epidemiological and sequencing studies. We used the Oncoarray project to genotype two truncating FANCC variants (p.R185X and p.R548X) in 64,760 breast cancer cases and 49,793 controls of European descent. FANCC mutations were observed in 25 cases (14 with p.R185X, 11 with p.R548X) and 26 controls (18 with p.R185X, 8 with p.R548X). There was no evidence of an association with the risk of breast cancer, neither overall (odds ratio 0.77, 95%CI 0.44-1.33, p = 0.4) nor by histology, hormone receptor status, age or family history. We conclude that the breast cancer risk association of these two FANCC variants, if any, is much smaller than for BRCA1, BRCA2 or PALB2 mutations. If this applies to all truncating variants in FANCC it would suggest there are differences between FA genes in their roles on breast cancer risk and demonstrates the merit of large consortia for clarifying risk associations of rare variants.

Runs of homozygosity and testicular cancer risk

BACKGROUND

Testicular germ cell tumour (TGCT) is highly heritable but > 50% of the genetic risk remains unexplained. Epidemiological observation of greater relative risk to brothers of men with TGCT compared to sons has long alluded to recessively acting TGCT genetic susceptibility factors, but to date none have been reported. Runs of homozygosity (RoH) are a signature indicating underlying recessively acting alleles and have been associated with increased risk of other cancer types.

OBJECTIVE

To examine whether RoH are associated with TGCT risk.

METHODS

We performed a genome-wide RoH analysis using GWAS data from 3206 TGCT cases and 7422 controls uniformly genotyped using the OncoArray platform.

RESULTS

Global measures of homozygosity were not significantly different between cases and controls, and the frequency of individual consensus RoH was not significantly different between cases and controls, after correction for multiple testing. RoH at three regions, 11p13-11p14.3, 5q14.1-5q22.3 and 13q14.11-13q.14.13, were, however, nominally statistically significant at p < 0.01. Intriguingly, RoH200 at 11p13-11p14.3 encompasses Wilms tumour 1 (WT1), a recognized cancer susceptibility gene with roles in sex determination and developmental transcriptional regulation, processes repeatedly implicated in TGCT aetiology.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION

Overall, our data do not support a major role in the risk of TGCT for recessively acting alleles acting through homozygosity, as measured by RoH in outbred populations of cases and controls.

Past and current asbestos exposure and future mesothelioma risks in Britain: The Inhaled Particles Study (TIPS)

Background

Occupational and environmental airborne asbestos concentrations are too low and variable for lifetime exposures to be estimated reliably, and building workers and occupants may suffer higher exposure when asbestos in older buildings is disturbed or removed. Mesothelioma risks from current asbestos exposures are therefore not known.

Methods

We interviewed and measured asbestos levels in lung samples from 257 patients treated for pneumothorax and 262 with resected lung cancer, recruited in England and Wales. Average lung burdens in British birth cohorts from 1940 to 1992 were estimated for asbestos-exposed workers and the general population.

Results

Regression analysis of British mesothelioma death rates and average lung burdens in birth cohorts born before 1965 suggests a lifetime mesothelioma risk of approximately 0.01% per fibre/mg of amphiboles in the lung. In those born since 1965, the average lung burden is ∼1 fibre/mg among those with no occupational exposure.

Conclusions

The average lifetime mesothelioma risk caused by recent environmental asbestos exposure in Britain will be about 1 in 10 000. The risk is an order of magnitude higher in a subgroup of exposed workers and probably in occupants in the most contaminated buildings. Further data are needed to discover whether asbestos still present in buildings, particularly schools, is a persistent or decreasing hazard to workers who disturb it and to the general population, and whether environmental exposure occurs predominantly in childhood or after beginning work. Similar studies are needed in other countries to estimate continuing environmental and occupational mesothelioma hazards worldwide, including the contribution from chrysotile.

Association analyses identify 31 new risk loci for colorectal cancer susceptibility

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is a leading cause of cancer-related death worldwide, and has a strong heritable basis. We report a genome-wide association analysis of 34,627 CRC cases and 71,379 controls of European ancestry that identifies SNPs at 31 new CRC risk loci. We also identify eight independent risk SNPs at the new and previously reported European CRC loci, and a further nine CRC SNPs at loci previously only identified in Asian populations. We use in situ promoter capture Hi-C (CHi-C), gene expression, and in silico annotation methods to identify likely target genes of CRC SNPs. Whilst these new SNP associations implicate target genes that are enriched for known CRC pathways such as Wnt and BMP, they also highlight novel pathways with no prior links to colorectal tumourigenesis. These findings provide further insight into CRC susceptibility and enhance the prospects of applying genetic risk scores to personalised screening and prevention.

Genetic susceptibility to radiation-induced breast cancer after Hodgkin lymphoma

Female Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) patients treated with chest radiotherapy (RT) have a very high risk of breast cancer. The contribution of genetic factors to this risk is unclear. We therefore examined 211 155 germline single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) for gene-radiation interaction on breast cancer risk in a case-only analysis including 327 breast cancer patients after chest RT for HL and 4671 first primary breast cancer patients. Nine SNPs showed statistically significant interaction with RT on breast cancer risk (false discovery rate, <20%), of which 1 SNP in the PVT1 oncogene attained the Bonferroni threshold for statistical significance. A polygenic risk score (PRS) composed of these SNPs (RT-interaction-PRS) and a previously published breast cancer PRS (BC-PRS) derived in the general population were evaluated in a case-control analysis comprising the 327 chest-irradiated HL patients with breast cancer and 491 chest-irradiated HL patients without breast cancer. Patients in the highest tertile of the RT-interaction-PRS had a 1.6-fold higher breast cancer risk than those in the lowest tertile. Remarkably, we observed a fourfold increased RT-induced breast cancer risk in the highest compared with the lowest decile of the BC-PRS. On a continuous scale, breast cancer risk increased 1.4-fold per standard deviation of the BC-PRS, similar to the effect size found in the general population. This study demonstrates that genetic factors influence breast cancer risk after chest RT for HL. Given the high absolute breast cancer risk in radiation-exposed women, these results can have important implications for the management of current HL survivors and future patients.

Author Correction: Genome-wide association study identifies susceptibility loci for B-cell childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia

The original version of this Article contained an error in the spelling of a member of the PRACTICAL Consortium, Manuela Gago-Dominguez, which was incorrectly given as Manuela Gago Dominguez. This has now been corrected in both the PDF and HTML versions of the Article. Furthermore, in the original HTML version of this Article, the order of authors within the author list was incorrect. The PRACTICAL consortium was incorrectly listed after Richard S. Houlston and should have been listed after Nora Pashayan. This error has been corrected in the HTML version of the Article; the PDF version was correct at the time of publication.

Author Correction: Identification of multiple risk loci and regulatory mechanisms influencing susceptibility to multiple myeloma

The original version of this Article contained an error in the spelling of a member of the PRACTICAL Consortium, Manuela Gago-Dominguez, which was incorrectly given as Manuela Gago Dominguez. This has now been corrected in both the PDF and HTML versions of the Article. Furthermore, in the original HTML version of this Article, the order of authors within the author list was incorrect. The PRACTICAL consortium was incorrectly listed after Richard S. Houlston and should have been listed after Nora Pashayan. This error has been corrected in the HTML version of the Article; the PDF version was correct at the time of publication.

Author Correction: Genome-wide association study of classical Hodgkin lymphoma identifies key regulators of disease susceptibility

The original version of this Article contained an error in the spelling of a member of the PRACTICAL Consortium, Manuela Gago-Dominguez, which was incorrectly given as Manuela Gago Dominguez. This has now been corrected in both the PDF and HTML versions of the Article.

Polygenic Risk Scores for Prediction of Breast Cancer and Breast Cancer Subtypes

Stratification of women according to their risk of breast cancer based on polygenic risk scores (PRSs) could improve screening and prevention strategies. Our aim was to develop PRSs, optimized for prediction of estrogen receptor (ER)-specific disease, from the largest available genome-wide association dataset and to empirically validate the PRSs in prospective studies. The development dataset comprised 94,075 case subjects and 75,017 control subjects of European ancestry from 69 studies, divided into training and validation sets. Samples were genotyped using genome-wide arrays, and single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were selected by stepwise regression or lasso penalized regression. The best performing PRSs were validated in an independent test set comprising 11,428 case subjects and 18,323 control subjects from 10 prospective studies and 190,040 women from UK Biobank (3,215 incident breast cancers). For the best PRSs (313 SNPs), the odds ratio for overall disease per 1 standard deviation in ten prospective studies was 1.61 (95%CI: 1.57-1.65) with area under receiver-operator curve (AUC) = 0.630 (95%CI: 0.628-0.651). The lifetime risk of overall breast cancer in the top centile of the PRSs was 32.6%. Compared with women in the middle quintile, those in the highest 1% of risk had 4.37- and 2.78-fold risks, and those in the lowest 1% of risk had 0.16- and 0.27-fold risks, of developing ER-positive and ER-negative disease, respectively. Goodness-of-fit tests indicated that this PRS was well calibrated and predicts disease risk accurately in the tails of the distribution. This PRS is a powerful and reliable predictor of breast cancer risk that may improve breast cancer prevention programs.

Genome-wide association study implicates immune dysfunction in the development of Hodgkin lymphoma

To further our understanding of inherited susceptibility to Hodgkin lymphoma (HL), we performed a meta-analysis of 7 genome-wide association studies totaling 5325 HL cases and 22 423 control patients. We identify 5 new HL risk loci at 6p21.31 (rs649775; P = 2.11 × 10-10), 6q23.3 (rs1002658; P = 2.97 × 10-8), 11q23.1 (rs7111520; P = 1.44 × 10-11), 16p11.2 (rs6565176; P = 4.00 × 10-8), and 20q13.12 (rs2425752; P = 2.01 × 10-8). Integration of gene expression, histone modification, and in situ promoter capture Hi-C data at the 5 new and 13 known risk loci implicates dysfunction of the germinal center reaction, disrupted T-cell differentiation and function, and constitutive NF-κB activation as mechanisms of predisposition. These data provide further insights into the genetic susceptibility and biology of HL.

Identification of multiple risk loci and regulatory mechanisms influencing susceptibility to multiple myeloma

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have transformed our understanding of susceptibility to multiple myeloma (MM), but much of the heritability remains unexplained. We report a new GWAS, a meta-analysis with previous GWAS and a replication series, totalling 9974 MM cases and 247,556 controls of European ancestry. Collectively, these data provide evidence for six new MM risk loci, bringing the total number to 23. Integration of information from gene expression, epigenetic profiling and in situ Hi-C data for the 23 risk loci implicate disruption of developmental transcriptional regulators as a basis of MM susceptibility, compatible with altered B-cell differentiation as a key mechanism. Dysregulation of autophagy/apoptosis and cell cycle signalling feature as recurrently perturbed pathways. Our findings provide further insight into the biological basis of MM.

Large-scale Analysis Demonstrates Familial Testicular Cancer to have Polygenic Aetiology

Testicular germ cell tumour (TGCT) is the most common cancer in young men. Multiplex TGCT families have been well reported and analyses of population cancer registries have demonstrated a four- to eightfold risk to male relatives of TGCT patients. Early linkage analysis and recent large-scale germline exome analysis in TGCT cases demonstrate absence of major high-penetrance TGCT susceptibility gene(s). Serial genome-wide association study analyses in sporadic TGCT have in total reported 49 independent risk loci. To date, it has not been demonstrated whether familial TGCT arises due to enrichment of the same common variants underpinning susceptibility to sporadic TGCT or is due to shared environmental/lifestyle factors or disparate rare genetic TGCT susceptibility factors. Here we present polygenic risk score analysis of 37 TGCT susceptibility single-nucleotide polymorphisms in 236 familial and 3931 sporadic TGCT cases, and 12 368 controls, which demonstrates clear enrichment for TGCT susceptibility alleles in familial compared to sporadic cases (p=0.0001), with the majority of familial cases (84-100%) being attributable to polygenic enrichment. These analyses reveal TGCT as the first rare malignancy of early adulthood in which familial clustering is driven by the aggregate effects of polygenic variation in the absence of a major high-penetrance susceptibility gene.

PATIENT SUMMARY

To date, it has been unclear whether familial clusters of testicular germ cell tumour (TGCT) arise due to genetics or shared environmental or lifestyle factors. We present large-scale genetic analyses comparing 236 familial TGCT cases, 3931 isolated TGCT cases, and 12 368 controls. We show that familial TGCT is caused, at least in part, by presence of a higher dose of the same common genetic variants that cause susceptibility to TGCT in general.

Identification of nine new susceptibility loci for endometrial cancer

Endometrial cancer is the most commonly diagnosed cancer of the female reproductive tract in developed countries. Through genome-wide association studies (GWAS), we have previously identified eight risk loci for endometrial cancer. Here, we present an expanded meta-analysis of 12,906 endometrial cancer cases and 108,979 controls (including new genotype data for 5624 cases) and identify nine novel genome-wide significant loci, including a locus on 12q24.12 previously identified by meta-GWAS of endometrial and colorectal cancer. At five loci, expression quantitative trait locus (eQTL) analyses identify candidate causal genes; risk alleles at two of these loci associate with decreased expression of genes, which encode negative regulators of oncogenic signal transduction proteins (SH2B3 (12q24.12) and NF1 (17q11.2)). In summary, this study has doubled the number of known endometrial cancer risk loci and revealed candidate causal genes for future study.

A transcriptome-wide association study of 229,000 women identifies new candidate susceptibility genes for breast cancer

The breast cancer risk variants identified in genome-wide association studies explain only a small fraction of the familial relative risk, and the genes responsible for these associations remain largely unknown. To identify novel risk loci and likely causal genes, we performed a transcriptome-wide association study evaluating associations of genetically predicted gene expression with breast cancer risk in 122,977 cases and 105,974 controls of European ancestry. We used data from the Genotype-Tissue Expression Project to establish genetic models to predict gene expression in breast tissue and evaluated model performance using data from The Cancer Genome Atlas. Of the 8,597 genes evaluated, significant associations were identified for 48 at a Bonferroni-corrected threshold of P < 5.82 × 10-6, including 14 genes at loci not yet reported for breast cancer. We silenced 13 genes and showed an effect for 11 on cell proliferation and/or colony-forming efficiency. Our study provides new insights into breast cancer genetics and biology.

Genetic overlap between endometriosis and endometrial cancer: evidence from cross-disease genetic correlation and GWAS meta-analyses

Epidemiological, biological, and molecular data suggest links between endometriosis and endometrial cancer, with recent epidemiological studies providing evidence for an association between a previous diagnosis of endometriosis and risk of endometrial cancer. We used genetic data as an alternative approach to investigate shared biological etiology of these two diseases. Genetic correlation analysis of summary level statistics from genomewide association studies (GWAS) using LD Score regression revealed moderate but significant genetic correlation (rg  = 0.23, P = 9.3 × 10-3 ), and SNP effect concordance analysis provided evidence for significant SNP pleiotropy (P = 6.0 × 10-3 ) and concordance in effect direction (P = 2.0 × 10-3 ) between the two diseases. Cross-disease GWAS meta-analysis highlighted 13 distinct loci associated at P ≤ 10-5 with both endometriosis and endometrial cancer, with one locus (SNP rs2475335) located within PTPRD associated at a genomewide significant level (P = 4.9 × 10-8 , OR = 1.11, 95% CI = 1.07-1.15). PTPRD acts in the STAT3 pathway, which has been implicated in both endometriosis and endometrial cancer. This study demonstrates the value of cross-disease genetic analysis to support epidemiological observations and to identify biological pathways of relevance to multiple diseases.

The BRCA2 c.68-7T > A variant is not pathogenic: A model for clinical calibration of spliceogenicity

Although the spliceogenic nature of the BRCA2 c.68-7T > A variant has been demonstrated, its association with cancer risk remains controversial. In this study, we accurately quantified by real-time PCR and digital PCR (dPCR), the BRCA2 isoforms retaining or missing exon 3. In addition, the combined odds ratio for causality of the variant was estimated using genetic and clinical data, and its associated cancer risk was estimated by case-control analysis in 83,636 individuals. Co-occurrence in trans with pathogenic BRCA2 variants was assessed in 5,382 families. Exon 3 exclusion rate was 4.5-fold higher in variant carriers (13%) than controls (3%), indicating an exclusion rate for the c.68-7T > A allele of approximately 20%. The posterior probability of pathogenicity was 7.44 × 10-115 . There was neither evidence for increased risk of breast cancer (OR 1.03; 95% CI 0.86-1.24) nor for a deleterious effect of the variant when co-occurring with pathogenic variants. Our data provide for the first time robust evidence of the nonpathogenicity of the BRCA2 c.68-7T > A. Genetic and quantitative transcript analyses together inform the threshold for the ratio between functional and altered BRCA2 isoforms compatible with normal cell function. These findings might be exploited to assess the relevance for cancer risk of other BRCA2 spliceogenic variants.