Fine-mapping analysis including over 254,000 East Asian and European descendants identifies 136 putative colorectal cancer susceptibility genes

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified more than 200 common genetic variants independently associated with colorectal cancer (CRC) risk, but the causal variants and target genes are mostly unknown. We sought to fine-map all known CRC risk loci using GWAS data from 100,204 cases and 154,587 controls of East Asian and European ancestry. Our stepwise conditional analyses revealed 238 independent association signals of CRC risk, each with a set of credible causal variants (CCVs), of which 28 signals had a single CCV. Our cis-eQTL/mQTL and colocalization analyses using colorectal tissue-specific transcriptome and methylome data separately from 1299 and 321 individuals, along with functional genomic investigation, uncovered 136 putative CRC susceptibility genes, including 56 genes not previously reported. Analyses of single-cell RNA-seq data from colorectal tissues revealed 17 putative CRC susceptibility genes with distinct expression patterns in specific cell types. Analyses of whole exome sequencing data provided additional support for several target genes identified in this study as CRC susceptibility genes. Enrichment analyses of the 136 genes uncover pathways not previously linked to CRC risk. Our study substantially expanded association signals for CRC and provided additional insight into the biological mechanisms underlying CRC development.

Development and validation of age-specific predictive equations for total energy expenditure and physical activity levels for older adults

BACKGROUND

Predicting energy requirements for older adults is compromised by the underpinning data being extrapolated from younger adults.

OBJECTIVES

To generate and validate new total energy expenditure (TEE) predictive equations specifically for older adults using readily available measures (age, weight, height) and to generate and test new physical activity level (PAL) values derived from 1) reference method of indirect calorimetry and 2) predictive equations in adults aged ≥65 y.

METHODS

TEE derived from "gold standard" methods from n = 1657 (n = 1019 females, age range 65-90 y), was used to generate PAL values. PAL ranged 1.28-2.05 for males and 1.26-2.06 for females. Physical activity (PA) coefficients were also estimated and categorized (inactive to very active) from population means. Nonlinear regression was used to develop prediction equations for estimating TEE. Double cross-validation in a randomized, sex-stratified, age-matched 50:50 split, and leave one out cross-validation were performed. Comparisons were made with existing equations.

RESULTS

Equations predicting TEE using the Institute of Medicine method are as follows: For males, TEE = -5680.17 - 17.50 × age (years) + PA coefficient × (6.96 × weight [kilograms] + 44.21 × height [centimeters]) + 1.13 × resting metabolic rate (RMR) (kilojoule/day). For females, TEE = -5290.72 - 8.38 × age (years) + PA coefficient × (9.77 × weight [kilograms] + 41.51 × height [centimeters]) + 1.05 × RMR (kilojoule/day), where PA coefficient values range from 1 (inactive) to 1.51 (highly active) in males and 1 to 1.44 in females respectively. Predictive performance for TEE from anthropometric variables and population mean PA was moderate with limits of agreement approximately ±30%. This improved to ±20% if PA was adjusted for activity category (inactive, low active, active, and very active). Where RMR was included as a predictor variable, the performance improved further to ±10% with a median absolute prediction error of approximately 4%.

CONCLUSIONS

These new TEE prediction equations require only simple anthropometric data and are accurate and reproducible at a group level while performing better than existing equations. Substantial individual variability in PAL in older adults is the major source of variation when applied at an individual level.

USING SIMULTANEOUS REGRESSION CALIBRATION TO STUDY THE EFFECT OF MULTIPLE ERROR-PRONE EXPOSURES ON DISEASE RISK UTILIZING BIOMARKERS DEVELOPED FROM A CONTROLLED FEEDING STUDY

Systematic measurement error in self-reported data creates important challenges in association studies between dietary intakes and chronic disease risks, especially when multiple dietary components are studied jointly. The joint regression calibration method has been developed for measurement error correction when objectively measured biomarkers are available for all dietary components of interest. Unfortunately, objectively measured biomarkers are only available for very few dietary components, which limits the application of the joint regression calibration method. Recently, for single dietary components, controlled feeding studies have been performed to develop new biomarkers for many more dietary components. However, it is unclear whether the biomarkers separately developed for single dietary components are valid for joint calibration. In this paper, we show that biomarkers developed for single dietary components cannot be used for joint regression calibration. We propose new methods to utilize controlled feeding studies to develop valid biomarkers for joint regression calibration to estimate the association between multiple dietary components simultaneously with the disease of interest. Asymptotic distribution theory for the proposed estimators is derived. Extensive simulations are performed to study the finite sample performance of the proposed estimators. We apply our methods to examine the joint effects of sodium and potassium intakes on cardiovascular disease incidence using the Women's Health Initiative cohort data. We identify positive associations between sodium intake and cardiovascular diseases as well as negative associations between potassium intake and cardiovascular disease.

A genome-wide gene-environment interaction study of breast cancer risk for women of European ancestry

BACKGROUND

Genome-wide studies of gene-environment interactions (G×E) may identify variants associated with disease risk in conjunction with lifestyle/environmental exposures. We conducted a genome-wide G×E analysis of ~ 7.6 million common variants and seven lifestyle/environmental risk factors for breast cancer risk overall and for estrogen receptor positive (ER +) breast cancer.

METHODS

Analyses were conducted using 72,285 breast cancer cases and 80,354 controls of European ancestry from the Breast Cancer Association Consortium. Gene-environment interactions were evaluated using standard unconditional logistic regression models and likelihood ratio tests for breast cancer risk overall and for ER + breast cancer. Bayesian False Discovery Probability was employed to assess the noteworthiness of each SNP-risk factor pairs.

RESULTS

Assuming a 1 × 10-5 prior probability of a true association for each SNP-risk factor pairs and a Bayesian False Discovery Probability < 15%, we identified two independent SNP-risk factor pairs: rs80018847(9p13)-LINGO2 and adult height in association with overall breast cancer risk (ORint = 0.94, 95% CI 0.92-0.96), and rs4770552(13q12)-SPATA13 and age at menarche for ER + breast cancer risk (ORint = 0.91, 95% CI 0.88-0.94).

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, the contribution of G×E interactions to the heritability of breast cancer is very small. At the population level, multiplicative G×E interactions do not make an important contribution to risk prediction in breast cancer.

Development and validation of new predictive equations for the resting metabolic rate of older adults aged ≥65 y

BACKGROUND

The aging process alters the resting metabolic rate (RMR), but it still accounts for 50%-70% of the total energy needs. The rising proportion of older adults, especially those over 80 y of age, underpins the need for a simple, rapid method to estimate the energy needs of older adults.

OBJECTIVES

This research aimed to generate and validate new RMR equations specifically for older adults and to report their performance and accuracy.

METHODS

Data were sourced to form an international dataset of adults aged ≥65 y (n = 1686, 38.5% male) where RMR was measured using the reference method of indirect calorimetry. Multiple regression was used to predict RMR from age (y), sex, weight (kg), and height (cm). Double cross-validation in a randomized, sex-stratified, age-matched 50:50 split and leave one out cross-validation were performed. The newly generated prediction equations were compared with the existing commonly used equations.

RESULTS

The new prediction equation for males and females aged ≥65 y had an overall improved performance, albeit marginally, when compared with the existing equations. It is described as follows: RMR (kJ/d) = 31.524 × W (kg) + 25.851 × H (cm) - 24.432 × Age (y) + 486.268 × Sex (M = 1, F = 0) + 530.557. Equations stratified by age (65-79.9 y and >80 y) and sex are also provided. The newly created equation estimates RMR within a population mean prediction bias of ∼50 kJ/d (∼1%) for those aged ≥65 y. Accuracy was reduced in adults aged ≥80 y (∼100 kJ/d, ∼2%) but was still within the clinically acceptable range for both males and females. Limits of agreement indicated a poorer performance at an individual level with 1.96-SD limits of approximately ±25%.

CONCLUSIONS

The new equations, using simple measures of weight, height, and age, improved the accuracy in the prediction of RMR in populations in clinical practice. However, no equation performs optimally at the individual level.

A cross-sectional study of inflammatory markers as determinants of circulating kynurenines in the Lung Cancer Cohort Consortium

Circulating concentrations of metabolites (collectively called kynurenines) in the kynurenine pathway of tryptophan metabolism increase during inflammation, particularly in response to interferon-gamma (IFN-γ). Neopterin and the kynurenine/tryptophan ratio (KTR) are IFN-γ induced inflammatory markers, and together with C-reactive protein (CRP) and kynurenines they are associated with various diseases, but comprehensive data on the strength of associations of inflammatory markers with circulating concentrations of kynurenines are lacking. We measured circulating concentrations of neopterin, CRP, tryptophan and seven kynurenines in 5314 controls from 20 cohorts in the Lung Cancer Cohort Consortium (LC3). The associations of neopterin, KTR and CRP with kynurenines were investigated using regression models. In mixed models, one standard deviation (SD) higher KTR was associated with a 0.46 SD higher quinolinic acid (QA), and 0.31 SD higher 3-hydroxykynurenine (HK). One SD higher neopterin was associated with 0.48, 0.44, 0.36 and 0.28 SD higher KTR, QA, kynurenine and HK, respectively. KTR and neopterin respectively explained 24.1% and 16.7% of the variation in QA, and 11.4% and 7.5% of HK. CRP was only weakly associated with kynurenines in regression models. In summary, QA was the metabolite that was most strongly associated with the inflammatory markers. In general, the inflammatory markers were most strongly related to metabolites located along the tryptophan-NAD axis, which may support suggestions of increased production of NAD from tryptophan during inflammation.

Deciphering colorectal cancer genetics through multi-omic analysis of 100,204 cases and 154,587 controls of European and east Asian ancestries

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is a leading cause of mortality worldwide. We conducted a genome-wide association study meta-analysis of 100,204 CRC cases and 154,587 controls of European and east Asian ancestry, identifying 205 independent risk associations, of which 50 were unreported. We performed integrative genomic, transcriptomic and methylomic analyses across large bowel mucosa and other tissues. Transcriptome- and methylome-wide association studies revealed an additional 53 risk associations. We identified 155 high-confidence effector genes functionally linked to CRC risk, many of which had no previously established role in CRC. These have multiple different functions and specifically indicate that variation in normal colorectal homeostasis, proliferation, cell adhesion, migration, immunity and microbial interactions determines CRC risk. Crosstissue analyses indicated that over a third of effector genes most probably act outside the colonic mucosa. Our findings provide insights into colorectal oncogenesis and highlight potential targets across tissues for new CRC treatment and chemoprevention strategies.

Common variants in breast cancer risk loci predispose to distinct tumor subtypes

BACKGROUND

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified multiple common breast cancer susceptibility variants. Many of these variants have differential associations by estrogen receptor (ER) status, but how these variants relate with other tumor features and intrinsic molecular subtypes is unclear.

METHODS

Among 106,571 invasive breast cancer cases and 95,762 controls of European ancestry with data on 173 breast cancer variants identified in previous GWAS, we used novel two-stage polytomous logistic regression models to evaluate variants in relation to multiple tumor features (ER, progesterone receptor (PR), human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) and grade) adjusting for each other, and to intrinsic-like subtypes.

RESULTS

Eighty-five of 173 variants were associated with at least one tumor feature (false discovery rate < 5%), most commonly ER and grade, followed by PR and HER2. Models for intrinsic-like subtypes found nearly all of these variants (83 of 85) associated at p < 0.05 with risk for at least one luminal-like subtype, and approximately half (41 of 85) of the variants were associated with risk of at least one non-luminal subtype, including 32 variants associated with triple-negative (TN) disease. Ten variants were associated with risk of all subtypes in different magnitude. Five variants were associated with risk of luminal A-like and TN subtypes in opposite directions.

CONCLUSION

This report demonstrates a high level of complexity in the etiology heterogeneity of breast cancer susceptibility variants and can inform investigations of subtype-specific risk prediction.

Association of germline genetic variants with breast cancer-specific survival in patient subgroups defined by clinic-pathological variables related to tumor biology and type of systemic treatment

BACKGROUND

Given the high heterogeneity among breast tumors, associations between common germline genetic variants and survival that may exist within specific subgroups could go undetected in an unstratified set of breast cancer patients.

METHODS

We performed genome-wide association analyses within 15 subgroups of breast cancer patients based on prognostic factors, including hormone receptors, tumor grade, age, and type of systemic treatment. Analyses were based on 91,686 female patients of European ancestry from the Breast Cancer Association Consortium, including 7531 breast cancer-specific deaths over a median follow-up of 8.1 years. Cox regression was used to assess associations of common germline variants with 15-year and 5-year breast cancer-specific survival. We assessed the probability of these associations being true positives via the Bayesian false discovery probability (BFDP < 0.15).

RESULTS

Evidence of associations with breast cancer-specific survival was observed in three patient subgroups, with variant rs5934618 in patients with grade 3 tumors (15-year-hazard ratio (HR) [95% confidence interval (CI)] 1.32 [1.20, 1.45], P = 1.4E-08, BFDP = 0.01, per G allele); variant rs4679741 in patients with ER-positive tumors treated with endocrine therapy (15-year-HR [95% CI] 1.18 [1.11, 1.26], P = 1.6E-07, BFDP = 0.09, per G allele); variants rs1106333 (15-year-HR [95% CI] 1.68 [1.39,2.03], P = 5.6E-08, BFDP = 0.12, per A allele) and rs78754389 (5-year-HR [95% CI] 1.79 [1.46,2.20], P = 1.7E-08, BFDP = 0.07, per A allele), in patients with ER-negative tumors treated with chemotherapy.

CONCLUSIONS

We found evidence of four loci associated with breast cancer-specific survival within three patient subgroups. There was limited evidence for the existence of associations in other patient subgroups. However, the power for many subgroups is limited due to the low number of events. Even so, our results suggest that the impact of common germline genetic variants on breast cancer-specific survival might be limited.

Epidemiology of 40 blood biomarkers of one-carbon metabolism, vitamin status, inflammation, and renal and endothelial function among cancer-free older adults

Imbalances of blood biomarkers are associated with disease, and biomarkers may also vary non-pathologically across population groups. We described variation in concentrations of biomarkers of one-carbon metabolism, vitamin status, inflammation including tryptophan metabolism, and endothelial and renal function among cancer-free older adults. We analyzed 5167 cancer-free controls aged 40-80 years from 20 cohorts in the Lung Cancer Cohort Consortium (LC3). Centralized biochemical analyses of 40 biomarkers in plasma or serum were performed. We fit multivariable linear mixed effects models to quantify variation in standardized biomarker log-concentrations across four factors: age, sex, smoking status, and body mass index (BMI). Differences in most biomarkers across most factors were small, with 93% (186/200) of analyses showing an estimated difference lower than 0.25 standard-deviations, although most were statistically significant due to large sample size. The largest difference was for creatinine by sex, which was - 0.91 standard-deviations lower in women than men (95%CI - 0.98; - 0.84). The largest difference by age was for total cysteine (0.40 standard-deviation increase per 10-year increase, 95%CI 0.36; 0.43), and by BMI was for C-reactive protein (0.38 standard-deviation increase per 5-kg/m2 increase, 95%CI 0.34; 0.41). For 31 of 40 markers, the mean difference between current and never smokers was larger than between former and never smokers. A statistically significant (p < 0.05) association with time since smoking cessation was observed for 8 markers, including C-reactive protein, kynurenine, choline, and total homocysteine. We conclude that most blood biomarkers show small variations across demographic characteristics. Patterns by smoking status point to normalization of multiple physiological processes after smoking cessation.

Genome-wide association study identifies 32 novel breast cancer susceptibility loci from overall and subtype-specific analyses

Breast cancer susceptibility variants frequently show heterogeneity in associations by tumor subtype1-3. To identify novel loci, we performed a genome-wide association study including 133,384 breast cancer cases and 113,789 controls, plus 18,908 BRCA1 mutation carriers (9,414 with breast cancer) of European ancestry, using both standard and novel methodologies that account for underlying tumor heterogeneity by estrogen receptor, progesterone receptor and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 status and tumor grade. We identified 32 novel susceptibility loci (P < 5.0 × 10-8), 15 of which showed evidence for associations with at least one tumor feature (false discovery rate < 0.05). Five loci showed associations (P < 0.05) in opposite directions between luminal and non-luminal subtypes. In silico analyses showed that these five loci contained cell-specific enhancers that differed between normal luminal and basal mammary cells. The genetic correlations between five intrinsic-like subtypes ranged from 0.35 to 0.80. The proportion of genome-wide chip heritability explained by all known susceptibility loci was 54.2% for luminal A-like disease and 37.6% for triple-negative disease. The odds ratios of polygenic risk scores, which included 330 variants, for the highest 1% of quantiles compared with middle quantiles were 5.63 and 3.02 for luminal A-like and triple-negative disease, respectively. These findings provide an improved understanding of genetic predisposition to breast cancer subtypes and will inform the development of subtype-specific polygenic risk scores.

Circulating markers of cellular immune activation in prediagnostic blood sample and lung cancer risk in the Lung Cancer Cohort Consortium (LC3)

Cell-mediated immune suppression may play an important role in lung carcinogenesis. We investigated the associations for circulating levels of tryptophan, kynurenine, kynurenine:tryptophan ratio (KTR), quinolinic acid (QA) and neopterin as markers of immune regulation and inflammation with lung cancer risk in 5,364 smoking-matched case-control pairs from 20 prospective cohorts included in the international Lung Cancer Cohort Consortium. All biomarkers were quantified by mass spectrometry-based methods in serum/plasma samples collected on average 6 years before lung cancer diagnosis. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for lung cancer associated with individual biomarkers were calculated using conditional logistic regression with adjustment for circulating cotinine. Compared to the lowest quintile, the highest quintiles of kynurenine, KTR, QA and neopterin were associated with a 20-30% higher risk, and tryptophan with a 15% lower risk of lung cancer (all ptrend < 0.05). The strongest associations were seen for current smokers, where the adjusted ORs (95% CIs) of lung cancer for the highest quintile of KTR, QA and neopterin were 1.42 (1.15-1.75), 1.42 (1.14-1.76) and 1.45 (1.13-1.86), respectively. A stronger association was also seen for KTR and QA with risk of lung squamous cell carcinoma followed by adenocarcinoma, and for lung cancer diagnosed within the first 2 years after blood draw. This study demonstrated that components of the tryptophan-kynurenine pathway with immunomodulatory effects are associated with risk of lung cancer overall, especially for current smokers. Further research is needed to evaluate the role of these biomarkers in lung carcinogenesis and progression.

Perspective: Dietary Biomarkers of Intake and Exposure-Exploration with Omics Approaches

While conventional nutrition research has yielded biomarkers such as doubly labeled water for energy metabolism and 24-h urinary nitrogen for protein intake, a critical need exists for additional, equally robust biomarkers that allow for objective assessment of specific food intake and dietary exposure. Recent advances in high-throughput MS combined with improved metabolomics techniques and bioinformatic tools provide new opportunities for dietary biomarker development. In September 2018, the NIH organized a 2-d workshop to engage nutrition and omics researchers and explore the potential of multiomics approaches in nutritional biomarker research. The current Perspective summarizes key gaps and challenges identified, as well as the recommendations from the workshop that could serve as a guide for scientists interested in dietary biomarkers research. Topics addressed included study designs for biomarker development, analytical and bioinformatic considerations, and integration of dietary biomarkers with other omics techniques. Several clear needs were identified, including larger controlled feeding studies, testing a variety of foods and dietary patterns across diverse populations, improved reporting standards to support study replication, more chemical standards covering a broader range of food constituents and human metabolites, standardized approaches for biomarker validation, comprehensive and accessible food composition databases, a common ontology for dietary biomarker literature, and methodologic work on statistical procedures for intake biomarker discovery. Multidisciplinary research teams with appropriate expertise are critical to moving forward the field of dietary biomarkers and producing robust, reproducible biomarkers that can be used in public health and clinical research.

Fine-mapping of 150 breast cancer risk regions identifies 191 likely target genes

Genome-wide association studies have identified breast cancer risk variants in over 150 genomic regions, but the mechanisms underlying risk remain largely unknown. These regions were explored by combining association analysis with in silico genomic feature annotations. We defined 205 independent risk-associated signals with the set of credible causal variants in each one. In parallel, we used a Bayesian approach (PAINTOR) that combines genetic association, linkage disequilibrium and enriched genomic features to determine variants with high posterior probabilities of being causal. Potentially causal variants were significantly over-represented in active gene regulatory regions and transcription factor binding sites. We applied our INQUSIT pipeline for prioritizing genes as targets of those potentially causal variants, using gene expression (expression quantitative trait loci), chromatin interaction and functional annotations. Known cancer drivers, transcription factors and genes in the developmental, apoptosis, immune system and DNA integrity checkpoint gene ontology pathways were over-represented among the highest-confidence target genes.

Total energy expenditure measured using doubly labeled water compared with estimated energy requirements in older adults (≥65 y): analysis of primary data

BACKGROUND

Contemporary energy expenditure data are crucial to inform and guide nutrition policy in older adults to optimize nutrition and health.

OBJECTIVE

The aim was to determine the optimal method of estimating total energy expenditure (TEE) in adults (aged ≥65 y) through 1) establishing which published predictive equations have the closest agreement between measured resting metabolic rate (RMR) and predicted RMR and 2) utilizing the RMR equations with the best agreement to predict TEE against the reference method of doubly labeled water (DLW).

METHODS

A database consisting of international participant-level TEE data from DLW studies was developed to enable comparison with energy requirements estimated by 17 commonly used predictive equations. This database included 31 studies comprising 988 participant-level RMR data and 1488 participant-level TEE data. Mean physical activity level (PAL) was determined for men (PAL = 1.69, n = 320) and women (PAL = 1.66, n = 668). Bland-Altman plots assessed agreement of measured RMR and TEE with predicted RMR and TEE in adults aged ≥65 y, and subgroups of 65-79 y and ≥80 y. Linear regression assessed proportional bias.

RESULTS

The Ikeda, Livingston, and Mifflin equations most closely agreed with measured RMR and TEE in all adults aged ≥65 y and in the 65-79 y and ≥80 y subgroups. In adults aged ≥65 y, the Ikeda and Livingston equations overestimated TEE by a mean ± SD of 175 ± 1362 kJ/d and 86 ± 1344 kJ/d, respectively. The Mifflin equation underestimated TEE by a mean ± SD of 24 ± 1401 kJ/d. Proportional bias was present as energy expenditure increased.

CONCLUSIONS

The Ikeda, Livingston, or Mifflin equations are recommended for estimating energy requirements of older adults. Future research should focus on developing predictive equations to meet the requirements of the older population with consideration given to body composition and functional measures.

Is high vitamin B12 status a cause of lung cancer?

Vitamin B supplementation can have side effects for human health, including cancer risk. We aimed to elucidate the role of vitamin B12 in lung cancer etiology via direct measurements of pre-diagnostic circulating vitamin B12 concentrations in a nested case-control study, complemented with a Mendelian randomization (MR) approach in an independent case-control sample. We used pre-diagnostic biomarker data from 5183 case-control pairs nested within 20 prospective cohorts, and genetic data from 29,266 cases and 56,450 controls. Exposures included directly measured circulating vitamin B12 in pre-diagnostic blood samples from the nested case-control study, and 8 single nucleotide polymorphisms associated with vitamin B12 concentrations in the MR study. Our main outcome of interest was increased risk for lung cancer, overall and by histological subtype, per increase in circulating vitamin B12 concentrations. We found circulating vitamin B12 to be positively associated with overall lung cancer risk in a dose response fashion (odds ratio for a doubling in B12 [ORlog2B12 ] = 1.15, 95% confidence interval (95%CI) = 1.06-1.25). The MR analysis based on 8 genetic variants also indicated that genetically determined higher vitamin B12 concentrations were positively associated with overall lung cancer risk (OR per 150 pmol/L standard deviation increase in B12 [ORSD ] = 1.08, 95%CI = 1.00-1.16). Considering the consistency of these two independent and complementary analyses, these findings support the hypothesis that high vitamin B12 status increases the risk of lung cancer.

Genome-wide association study of germline variants and breast cancer-specific mortality

BACKGROUND

We examined the associations between germline variants and breast cancer mortality using a large meta-analysis of women of European ancestry.

METHODS

Meta-analyses included summary estimates based on Cox models of twelve datasets using ~10.4 million variants for 96,661 women with breast cancer and 7697 events (breast cancer-specific deaths). Oestrogen receptor (ER)-specific analyses were based on 64,171 ER-positive (4116) and 16,172 ER-negative (2125) patients. We evaluated the probability of a signal to be a true positive using the Bayesian false discovery probability (BFDP).

RESULTS

We did not find any variant associated with breast cancer-specific mortality at P < 5 × 10-8. For ER-positive disease, the most significantly associated variant was chr7:rs4717568 (BFDP = 7%, P = 1.28 × 10-7, hazard ratio [HR] = 0.88, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.84-0.92); the closest gene is AUTS2. For ER-negative disease, the most significant variant was chr7:rs67918676 (BFDP = 11%, P = 1.38 × 10-7, HR = 1.27, 95% CI = 1.16-1.39); located within a long intergenic non-coding RNA gene (AC004009.3), close to the HOXA gene cluster.

CONCLUSIONS

We uncovered germline variants on chromosome 7 at BFDP < 15% close to genes for which there is biological evidence related to breast cancer outcome. However, the paucity of variants associated with mortality at genome-wide significance underpins the challenge in providing genetic-based individualised prognostic information for breast cancer patients.

Vitamin B6 catabolism and lung cancer risk: results from the Lung Cancer Cohort Consortium (LC3)

BACKGROUND

Increased vitamin B6 catabolism related to inflammation, as measured by the PAr index (the ratio of 4-pyridoxic acid over the sum of pyridoxal and pyridoxal-5'-phosphate), has been positively associated with lung cancer risk in two prospective European studies. However, the extent to which this association translates to more diverse populations is not known.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

For this study, we included 5323 incident lung cancer cases and 5323 controls individually matched by age, sex, and smoking status within each of 20 prospective cohorts from the Lung Cancer Cohort Consortium. Cohort-specific odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association between PAr and lung cancer risk were calculated using conditional logistic regression and pooled using random-effects models.

RESULTS

PAr was positively associated with lung cancer risk in a dose-response fashion. Comparing the fourth versus first quartiles of PAr resulted in an OR of 1.38 (95% CI: 1.19-1.59) for overall lung cancer risk. The association between PAr and lung cancer risk was most prominent in former smokers (OR: 1.69, 95% CI: 1.36-2.10), men (OR: 1.60, 95% CI: 1.28-2.00), and for cancers diagnosed within 3 years of blood draw (OR: 1.73, 95% CI: 1.34-2.23).

CONCLUSION

Based on pre-diagnostic data from 20 cohorts across 4 continents, this study confirms that increased vitamin B6 catabolism related to inflammation and immune activation is associated with a higher risk of developing lung cancer. Moreover, PAr may be a pre-diagnostic marker of lung cancer rather than a causal factor.

Polygenic Risk Scores for Prediction of Breast Cancer and Breast Cancer Subtypes

Stratification of women according to their risk of breast cancer based on polygenic risk scores (PRSs) could improve screening and prevention strategies. Our aim was to develop PRSs, optimized for prediction of estrogen receptor (ER)-specific disease, from the largest available genome-wide association dataset and to empirically validate the PRSs in prospective studies. The development dataset comprised 94,075 case subjects and 75,017 control subjects of European ancestry from 69 studies, divided into training and validation sets. Samples were genotyped using genome-wide arrays, and single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were selected by stepwise regression or lasso penalized regression. The best performing PRSs were validated in an independent test set comprising 11,428 case subjects and 18,323 control subjects from 10 prospective studies and 190,040 women from UK Biobank (3,215 incident breast cancers). For the best PRSs (313 SNPs), the odds ratio for overall disease per 1 standard deviation in ten prospective studies was 1.61 (95%CI: 1.57-1.65) with area under receiver-operator curve (AUC) = 0.630 (95%CI: 0.628-0.651). The lifetime risk of overall breast cancer in the top centile of the PRSs was 32.6%. Compared with women in the middle quintile, those in the highest 1% of risk had 4.37- and 2.78-fold risks, and those in the lowest 1% of risk had 0.16- and 0.27-fold risks, of developing ER-positive and ER-negative disease, respectively. Goodness-of-fit tests indicated that this PRS was well calibrated and predicts disease risk accurately in the tails of the distribution. This PRS is a powerful and reliable predictor of breast cancer risk that may improve breast cancer prevention programs.

Risk prediction for estrogen receptor-specific breast cancers in two large prospective cohorts

BACKGROUND

Few published breast cancer (BC) risk prediction models consider the heterogeneity of predictor variables between estrogen-receptor positive (ER+) and negative (ER-) tumors. Using data from two large cohorts, we examined whether modeling this heterogeneity could improve prediction.

METHODS

We built two models, for ER+ (ModelER+) and ER- tumors (ModelER-), respectively, in 281,330 women (51% postmenopausal at recruitment) from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort. Discrimination (C-statistic) and calibration (the agreement between predicted and observed tumor risks) were assessed both internally and externally in 82,319 postmenopausal women from the Women's Health Initiative study. We performed decision curve analysis to compare ModelER+ and the Gail model (ModelGail) regarding their applicability in risk assessment for chemoprevention.

RESULTS

Parity, number of full-term pregnancies, age at first full-term pregnancy and body height were only associated with ER+ tumors. Menopausal status, age at menarche and at menopause, hormone replacement therapy, postmenopausal body mass index, and alcohol intake were homogeneously associated with ER+ and ER- tumors. Internal validation yielded a C-statistic of 0.64 for ModelER+ and 0.59 for ModelER-. External validation reduced the C-statistic of ModelER+ (0.59) and ModelGail (0.57). In external evaluation of calibration, ModelER+ outperformed the ModelGail: the former led to a 9% overestimation of the risk of ER+ tumors, while the latter yielded a 22% underestimation of the overall BC risk. Compared with the treat-all strategy, ModelER+ produced equal or higher net benefits irrespective of the benefit-to-harm ratio of chemoprevention, while ModelGail did not produce higher net benefits unless the benefit-to-harm ratio was below 50. The clinical applicability, i.e. the area defined by the net benefit curve and the treat-all and treat-none strategies, was 12.7 × 10- 6 for ModelER+ and 3.0 × 10- 6 for ModelGail.

CONCLUSIONS

Modeling heterogeneous epidemiological risk factors might yield little improvement in BC risk prediction. Nevertheless, a model specifically predictive of ER+ tumor risk could be more applicable than an omnibus model in risk assessment for chemoprevention.

Circulating cotinine concentrations and lung cancer risk in the Lung Cancer Cohort Consortium (LC3)

Background

Self-reported smoking is the principal measure used to assess lung cancer risk in epidemiological studies. We evaluated if circulating cotinine-a nicotine metabolite and biomarker of recent tobacco exposure-provides additional information on lung cancer risk.

Methods

The study was conducted in the Lung Cancer Cohort Consortium (LC3) involving 20 prospective cohort studies. Pre-diagnostic serum cotinine concentrations were measured in one laboratory on 5364 lung cancer cases and 5364 individually matched controls. We used conditional logistic regression to evaluate the association between circulating cotinine and lung cancer, and assessed if cotinine provided additional risk-discriminative information compared with self-reported smoking (smoking status, smoking intensity, smoking duration), using receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis.

Results

We observed a strong positive association between cotinine and lung cancer risk for current smokers [odds ratio (OR ) per 500 nmol/L increase in cotinine (OR500): 1.39, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.32-1.47]. Cotinine concentrations consistent with active smoking (≥115 nmol/L) were common in former smokers (cases: 14.6%; controls: 9.2%) and rare in never smokers (cases: 2.7%; controls: 0.8%). Former and never smokers with cotinine concentrations indicative of active smoking (≥115 nmol/L) also showed increased lung cancer risk. For current smokers, the risk-discriminative performance of cotinine combined with self-reported smoking (AUCintegrated: 0.69, 95% CI: 0.68-0.71) yielded a small improvement over self-reported smoking alone (AUCsmoke: 0.66, 95% CI: 0.64-0.68) (P = 1.5x10-9).

Conclusions

Circulating cotinine concentrations are consistently associated with lung cancer risk for current smokers and provide additional risk-discriminative information compared with self-report smoking alone.

A transcriptome-wide association study of 229,000 women identifies new candidate susceptibility genes for breast cancer

The breast cancer risk variants identified in genome-wide association studies explain only a small fraction of the familial relative risk, and the genes responsible for these associations remain largely unknown. To identify novel risk loci and likely causal genes, we performed a transcriptome-wide association study evaluating associations of genetically predicted gene expression with breast cancer risk in 122,977 cases and 105,974 controls of European ancestry. We used data from the Genotype-Tissue Expression Project to establish genetic models to predict gene expression in breast tissue and evaluated model performance using data from The Cancer Genome Atlas. Of the 8,597 genes evaluated, significant associations were identified for 48 at a Bonferroni-corrected threshold of P < 5.82 × 10-6, including 14 genes at loci not yet reported for breast cancer. We silenced 13 genes and showed an effect for 11 on cell proliferation and/or colony-forming efficiency. Our study provides new insights into breast cancer genetics and biology.

Impaired functional vitamin B6 status is associated with increased risk of lung cancer

Circulating vitamin B6 levels have been found to be inversely associated with lung cancer. Most studies have focused on the B6 form pyridoxal 5'-phosphate (PLP), a direct biomarker influenced by inflammation and other factors. Using a functional B6 marker allows further investigation of the potential role of vitamin B6 status in the pathogenesis of lung cancer. We prospectively evaluated the association of the functional marker of vitamin B6 status, the 3-hydroxykynurenine:xanthurenic acid (HK:XA) ratio, with risk of lung cancer in a nested case-control study consisting of 5,364 matched case-control pairs from the Lung Cancer Cohort Consortium (LC3). We used conditional logistic regression to evaluate the association between HK:XA and lung cancer, and random effect models to combine results from different cohorts and regions. High levels of HK:XA, indicating impaired functional B6 status, were associated with an increased risk of lung cancer, the odds ratio comparing the fourth and the first quartiles (OR4thvs.1st ) was 1.25 (95% confidence interval, 1.10-1.41). Stratified analyses indicated that this association was primarily driven by cases diagnosed with squamous cell carcinoma. Notably, the risk associated with HK:XA was approximately 50% higher in groups with a high relative frequency of squamous cell carcinoma, i.e., men, former and current smokers. This risk of squamous cell carcinoma was present in both men and women regardless of smoking status.

No association between circulating concentrations of vitamin D and risk of lung cancer: an analysis in 20 prospective studies in the Lung Cancer Cohort Consortium (LC3)

Background

There is observational evidence suggesting that high vitamin D concentrations may protect against lung cancer. To investigate this hypothesis in detail, we measured circulating vitamin D concentrations in prediagnostic blood from 20 cohorts participating in the Lung Cancer Cohort Consortium (LC3).

Patients and methods

The study included 5313 lung cancer cases and 5313 controls. Blood samples for the cases were collected, on average, 5 years before lung cancer diagnosis. Controls were individually matched to the cases by cohort, sex, age, race/ethnicity, date of blood collection, and smoking status in five categories. Liquid chromatography coupled with tandem mass spectrometry was used to separately analyze 25-hydroxyvitamin D2 [25(OH)D2] and 25-hydroxyvitamin D3 [25(OH)D3] and their concentrations were combined to give an overall measure of 25(OH)D. We used conditional logistic regression to calculate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for 25(OH)D as both continuous and categorical variables.

Results

Overall, no apparent association between 25(OH)D and risk of lung cancer was observed (multivariable adjusted OR for a doubling in concentration: 0.98, 95% CI: 0.91, 1.06). Similarly, we found no clear evidence of interaction by cohort, sex, age, smoking status, or histology.

Conclusion

This study did not support an association between vitamin D concentrations and lung cancer risk.

Circulating Folate, Vitamin B6, and Methionine in Relation to Lung Cancer Risk in the Lung Cancer Cohort Consortium (LC3)

Background

Circulating concentrations of B vitamins and factors related to one-carbon metabolism have been found to be strongly inversely associated with lung cancer risk in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study. The extent to which these associations are present in other study populations is unknown.

Methods

Within 20 prospective cohorts from the National Cancer Institute Cohort Consortium, a nested case-control study was designed including 5364 incident lung cancer case patients and 5364 control subjects who were individually matched to case patients by age, sex, cohort, and smoking status. Centralized biochemical analyses were performed to measure circulating concentrations of vitamin B6, folate, and methionine, as well as cotinine as an indicator of recent tobacco exposure. The association between these biomarkers and lung cancer risk was evaluated using conditional logistic regression models.

Results

Participants with higher circulating concentrations of vitamin B6 and folate had a modestly decreased risk of lung cancer risk overall, the odds ratios when comparing the top and bottom fourths (OR 4vs1 ) being 0.88 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.78 to 1.00) and 0.86 (95% CI = 0.74 to 0.99), respectively. We found stronger associations among men (vitamin B6: OR 4vs1 = 0.74, 95% CI = 0.62 to 0.89; folate: OR 4vs1 = 0.75, 95% CI = 0.61 to 0.93) and ever smokers (vitamin B6: OR 4vs1 = 0.78, 95% CI = 0.67 to 0.91; folate: OR 4vs1 = 0.87, 95% CI = 0.73 to 1.03). We further noted that the association of folate was restricted to Europe/Australia and Asia, whereas no clear association was observed for the United States. Circulating concentrations of methionine were not associated with lung cancer risk overall or in important subgroups.

Conclusions

Although confounding by tobacco exposure or reverse causation cannot be ruled out, these study results are compatible with a small decrease in lung cancer risk in ever smokers who avoid low concentrations of circulating folate and vitamin B6.

Identification of ten variants associated with risk of estrogen-receptor-negative breast cancer

Most common breast cancer susceptibility variants have been identified through genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of predominantly estrogen receptor (ER)-positive disease. We conducted a GWAS using 21,468 ER-negative cases and 100,594 controls combined with 18,908 BRCA1 mutation carriers (9,414 with breast cancer), all of European origin. We identified independent associations at P < 5 × 10-8 with ten variants at nine new loci. At P < 0.05, we replicated associations with 10 of 11 variants previously reported in ER-negative disease or BRCA1 mutation carrier GWAS and observed consistent associations with ER-negative disease for 105 susceptibility variants identified by other studies. These 125 variants explain approximately 16% of the familial risk of this breast cancer subtype. There was high genetic correlation (0.72) between risk of ER-negative breast cancer and breast cancer risk for BRCA1 mutation carriers. These findings may lead to improved risk prediction and inform further fine-mapping and functional work to better understand the biological basis of ER-negative breast cancer.

Association analysis identifies 65 new breast cancer risk loci

Breast cancer risk is influenced by rare coding variants in susceptibility genes, such as BRCA1, and many common, mostly non-coding variants. However, much of the genetic contribution to breast cancer risk remains unknown. Here we report the results of a genome-wide association study of breast cancer in 122,977 cases and 105,974 controls of European ancestry and 14,068 cases and 13,104 controls of East Asian ancestry. We identified 65 new loci that are associated with overall breast cancer risk at P < 5 × 10-8. The majority of credible risk single-nucleotide polymorphisms in these loci fall in distal regulatory elements, and by integrating in silico data to predict target genes in breast cells at each locus, we demonstrate a strong overlap between candidate target genes and somatic driver genes in breast tumours. We also find that heritability of breast cancer due to all single-nucleotide polymorphisms in regulatory features was 2-5-fold enriched relative to the genome-wide average, with strong enrichment for particular transcription factor binding sites. These results provide further insight into genetic susceptibility to breast cancer and will improve the use of genetic risk scores for individualized screening and prevention.

The effect of genetic variants on the relationship between statins and breast cancer in postmenopausal women in the Women's Health Initiative observational study

PURPOSE

Statins have been postulated to have chemopreventive activity against breast cancer. We evaluated whether germline genetic polymorphisms modified the relationship between statins and breast cancer risk using data from the Women's Health Initiative. We evaluated these interactions using both candidate gene and agnostic genome-wide approaches.

METHODS

To identify candidate gene-statin interactions, we tested interactions between 22 SNPS in nine candidate genes implicated in the effect of statins on lipid metabolism in 1687 cases and 1687 controls. We then evaluated statin use interaction with the remaining 30,380 SNPs available in this sample from the CGEMS GWAS study.

RESULTS

After adjusting for multiple comparisons, no SNP interactions with statin usage and risk of breast cancer were statistically significant in either the candidate genes or genome-wide approaches.

CONCLUSIONS

We found no evidence of SNP interactions with statin usage for breast cancer risk in a population of 3374 individuals. These results suggest that genome-wide common genetic variants do not moderate the association between statin usage and breast cancer in the population of women in the Women's Health Initiative.

Circulating concentrations of biomarkers and metabolites related to vitamin status, one-carbon and the kynurenine pathways in US, Nordic, Asian, and Australian populations

Background: Circulating concentrations of biomarkers that are related to vitamin status vary by factors such as diet, fortification, and supplement use. Published biomarker concentrations have also been influenced by the variation across laboratories, which complicates a comparison of results from different studies.Objective: We robustly and comprehensively assessed differences in biomarkers that are related to vitamin status across geographic regions.Design: The trial was a cross-sectional study in which we investigated 38 biomarkers that are related to vitamin status and one-carbon and tryptophan metabolism in serum and plasma from 5314 healthy control subjects representing 20 cohorts recruited from the United States, Nordic countries, Asia, and Australia, participating in the Lung Cancer Cohort Consortium. All samples were analyzed in a centralized laboratory.Results: Circulating concentrations of riboflavin, pyridoxal 5'-phosphate, folate, vitamin B-12, all-trans retinol, 25-hydroxyvitamin D, and α-tocopherol as well as combined vitamin scores that were based on these nutrients showed that the general B-vitamin concentration was highest in the United States and that the B vitamins and lipid soluble vitamins were low in Asians. Conversely, circulating concentrations of metabolites that are inversely related to B vitamins involved in the one-carbon and kynurenine pathways were high in Asians. The high B-vitamin concentration in the United States appears to be driven mainly by multivitamin-supplement users.Conclusions: The observed differences likely reflect the variation in intake of vitamins and, in particular, the widespread multivitamin-supplement use in the United States. The results provide valuable information about the differences in biomarker concentrations in populations across continents.

Trans-ethnic fine-mapping of genetic loci for body mass index in the diverse ancestral populations of the Population Architecture using Genomics and Epidemiology (PAGE) Study reveals evidence for multiple signals at established loci

Most body mass index (BMI) genetic loci have been identified in studies of primarily European ancestries. The effect of these loci in other racial/ethnic groups is less clear. Thus, we aimed to characterize the generalizability of 170 established BMI variants, or their proxies, to diverse US populations and trans-ethnically fine-map 36 BMI loci using a sample of >102,000 adults of African, Hispanic/Latino, Asian, European and American Indian/Alaskan Native descent from the Population Architecture using Genomics and Epidemiology Study. We performed linear regression of the natural log of BMI (18.5-70 kg/m²) on the additive single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) at BMI loci on the MetaboChip (Illumina, Inc.), adjusting for age, sex, population stratification, study site, or relatedness. We then performed fixed-effect meta-analyses and a Bayesian trans-ethnic meta-analysis to empirically cluster by allele frequency differences. Finally, we approximated conditional and joint associations to test for the presence of secondary signals. We noted directional consistency with the previously reported risk alleles beyond what would have been expected by chance (binomial p < 0.05). Nearly, a quarter of the previously described BMI index SNPs and 29 of 36 densely-genotyped BMI loci on the MetaboChip replicated/generalized in trans-ethnic analyses. We observed multiple signals at nine loci, including the description of seven loci with novel multiple signals. This study supports the generalization of most common genetic loci to diverse ancestral populations and emphasizes the importance of dense multiethnic genomic data in refining the functional variation at genetic loci of interest and describing several loci with multiple underlying genetic variants.

Duration of Adulthood Overweight, Obesity, and Cancer Risk in the Women's Health Initiative: A Longitudinal Study from the United States

BACKGROUND

High body mass index (BMI) has become the leading risk factor of disease burden in high-income countries. While recent studies have suggested that the risk of cancer related to obesity is mediated by time, insights into the dose-response relationship and the cumulative impact of overweight and obesity during the life course on cancer risk remain scarce. To our knowledge, this study is the first to assess the impact of adulthood overweight and obesity duration on the risk of cancer in a large cohort of postmenopausal women.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Participants from the observational study of the Women's Health Initiative (WHI) with BMI information from at least three occasions during follow-up, free of cancer at baseline, and with complete covariate information were included (n = 73,913). Trajectories of BMI across ages were estimated using a quadratic growth model; overweight duration (BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2), obesity duration (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2), and weighted cumulative overweight and obese years, which take into account the degree of overweight and obesity over time (a measure similar to pack-years of cigarette smoking), were calculated using predicted BMIs. Cox proportional hazard models were applied to determine the cancer risk associated with overweight and obesity duration. In secondary analyses, the influence of important effect modifiers and confounders, such as smoking status, postmenopausal hormone use, and ethnicity, was assessed. A longer duration of overweight was significantly associated with the incidence of all obesity-related cancers (hazard ratio [HR] per 10-y increment: 1.07, 95% CI 1.06-1.09). For postmenopausal breast and endometrial cancer, every 10-y increase in adulthood overweight duration was associated with a 5% and 17% increase in risk, respectively. On adjusting for intensity of overweight, these figures rose to 8% and 37%, respectively. Risks of postmenopausal breast and endometrial cancer related to overweight duration were much more pronounced in women who never used postmenopausal hormones. This study has limitations because some of the anthropometric information was obtained from retrospective self-reports. Furthermore, data from longitudinal studies with long-term follow-up and repeated anthropometric measures are typically subject to missing data at various time points, which was also the case in this study. Yet, this limitation was partially overcome by using growth curve models, which enabled us to impute data at missing time points for each participant.

CONCLUSIONS

In summary, this study showed that a longer duration of overweight and obesity is associated with an increased risk of developing several forms of cancer. Furthermore, the degree of overweight experienced during adulthood seemed to play an important role in the risk of developing cancer, especially for endometrial cancer. Although the observational nature of our study precludes inferring causality or making clinical recommendations, our findings suggest that reducing overweight duration in adulthood could reduce cancer risk and that obesity prevention is important from early onset. If this is true, health care teams should recognize the potential of obesity management in cancer prevention and that excess body weight in women is important to manage regardless of the age of the patient.

Sodium Intake and Osteoporosis. Findings From the Women's Health Initiative

In this large, prospective, observational cohort study of postmenopausal women in the WHI, Cox proportional hazard regression models showed that sodium intake at or near recommended levels is not likely to impact bone metabolism.

Breast Cancer and Menopausal Hormone Therapy by Race/Ethnicity and Body Mass Index

In analyses combining estrogen with or without progestin, some observational studies describe minimal breast cancer risk in obese and black women. Therefore, we examined these suggested interactions in the two Women's Health Initiative (WHI) randomized hormone therapy trials. The estrogen plus progestin trial entered 16 608 postmenopausal women with a uterus, while the estrogen trial entered 10 736 postmenopausal women with prior hysterectomy. Hazard ratios (HRs), 95% confidence intervals (CIs), and P values from log-rank x(2) statistics were estimated from Cox proportional hazards models with subgroup analyses based on tests of interaction. All statistical tests were two-sided. Estrogen plus progestin statistically significantly increased breast cancer incidence (HR = 1.28, 95% CI = 1.11 to 1.48, P < .001), with hazard ratios greater than 1 in all body mass index (BMI) subgroups (P interaction = .58) and hazard ratios greater than 1 in black and white women (P interaction = .96). In contrast, estrogen alone statistically significantly decreased breast cancer incidence (HR = 0.79, 95% CI = 0.65 to 0.90, P = .02), with hazard ratios lower than 1 in all BMI subgroups (P interaction = .86) and hazard ratios lower than 1 in black and white women, where analyses with limited numbers suggest somewhat greater reduction in black women (P interaction = .09). In summary, estrogen plus progestin and estrogen alone have opposite effects on breast cancer incidence, with no statistically significant interactions by race/ethnicity or BMI. Therefore, observational studies should not combine these two regimens when examining breast cancer risk.

Abstract 933: Circulating biomarkers of B vitamins in relation to lung cancer risk in the Lung Cancer Cohort Consortium

Background - B vitamins and factors related to one-carbon metabolism help to maintain DNA and regulate gene expression. Some epidemiological data suggest that factors related to the one-carbon metabolism are important in the pathogenesis of several cancers, including lung cancer.

Methods - Within the NCI Cohort Consortium, we designed a prospective case-control study including a total of 5,546 case-control pairs nested within 20 prospective cohorts. Centralized biochemical analyses of all study participants were performed to measure circulating concentrations of vitamin B6, folate and methionine, which were subsequently evaluated in relation to lung cancer risk using conditional logistic regression models.

Results - We observed an overall increased risk of lung cancer of 25% among study participants having a deficiency in circulating B6 concentrations compared to those with normal concentrations, the odds ratio (OR) being 1.23 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.10 - 1.38. This association was primarily evident seen among men (OR 1.38 95% CI 1.20 - 1.60), but not among women (OR 1.03 95% CI 0.85-1.24), as well as for ever ever smokers (OR 1.32 95% CI 1.10 - 1.60). Subgroup analyses by histological sub-site indicated particularly strong association for squamous cell carcinoma type, with about 50% risk increase overall when comparing subjects with vitamin B6 deficiency to normal levels. No association was evident for methionine. Detailed results will be presented at the conference.

Conclusion - Our results are compatible with the hypothesis that vitamin B6 deficiency is associated with increased lung cancer risk, although the risk increase appears to be moderate.

Citation Format: Anouar Fanidi, David.C Muller, Ross Prentice, Albanes Demetrius, Jian-Min Yuan, Victoria Stevens, Stephanie J Weinstein, Mattias Johansson, Paul Brennan, Lung Cancer Cohort Consortium (LC3). Circulating biomarkers of B vitamins in relation to lung cancer risk in the Lung Cancer Cohort Consortium. [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 106th Annual Meeting of the American Association for Cancer Research; 2015 Apr 18-22; Philadelphia, PA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2015;75(15 Suppl):Abstract nr 933. doi:10.1158/1538-7445.AM2015-933

An Autoimmune Response Signature Associated with the Development of Triple-Negative Breast Cancer Reflects Disease Pathogenesis

The repertoire of antigens associated with the development of an autoimmune response in breast cancer has relevance to detection and treatment strategies. We have investigated the occurrence of autoantibodies associated with the development of triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) in the before diagnosis setting and in samples collected at the time of diagnosis of TNBC. Lysate arrays containing protein fractions from the TNBC MDA-MB-231 cell line were hybridized with TNBC plasmas from the Women's Health Initiative cohort, collected before clinical diagnosis and with plasmas from matched controls. An immune response directed against spliceosome and glycolysis proteins was observed with case plasmas as previously reported in estrogen receptor(+) breast cancer. Importantly, autoantibodies directed against networks involving BRCA1, TP53, and cytokeratin proteins associated with a mesenchymal/basal phenotype were distinct to TNBC before diagnosis samples. Concordant autoantibody findings were observed with mouse plasma samples collected before occurrence of palpable tumors from a C3(1)-T triple negative mouse model. Plasma samples collected at the time of diagnosis of stage II TNBC and from matched healthy controls were subjected to proteomic analysis by mass spectrometry to identify Ig-bound proteins yielding a predominance of cytokeratins, including several associated with a mesenchymal/basal phenotype among cases compared with controls. Our data provide evidence indicative of a dynamic repertoire of antigens associated with a humoral immune response reflecting disease pathogenesis in TNBC.

Potassium intake and risk of stroke in women with hypertension and nonhypertension in the Women's Health Initiative

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Dietary potassium has been associated with lower risk of stroke, but there are little data on dietary potassium effects on different stroke subtypes or in older women with hypertension and nonhypertension.

METHODS

The study population consisted of 90 137 postmenopausal women aged 50 to 79 at enrollment, free of stroke history at baseline, followed up prospectively for an average of 11 years. Outcome variables were total, ischemic, and hemorrhagic stroke, and all-cause mortality. Incidence was compared across quartiles of dietary potassium intake, and hazard ratios were obtained from Cox proportional hazards models after adjusting for potential confounding variables, and in women with hypertension and nonhypertension separately.

RESULTS

Mean dietary potassium intake was 2611 mg/d. Highest quartile of potassium intake was associated with lower incidence of ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke and total mortality. Multivariate analyses comparing highest to lowest quartile of potassium intake indicated a hazard ratio of 0.90 (95% confidence interval, 0.85-0.95) for all-cause mortality, 0.88 (95% confidence interval, 0.79-0.98) for all stroke, and 0.84 (95% confidence interval, 0.74-0.96) for ischemic stroke. The effect on ischemic stroke was more apparent in women with nonhypertension among whom there was a 27% lower risk with hazard ratio of 0.73 (95% confidence interval, 0.60-0.88), interaction P<0.10. There was no association with hemorrhagic stroke.

CONCLUSIONS

High potassium intake is associated with a lower risk of all stroke and ischemic stroke, as well as all-cause mortality in older women, particularly those who are not hypertensive.

50-year trends in smoking-related mortality in the United States

BACKGROUND

The disease risks from cigarette smoking increased in the United States over most of the 20th century, first among male smokers and later among female smokers. Whether these risks have continued to increase during the past 20 years is unclear.

METHODS

We measured temporal trends in mortality across three time periods (1959-1965, 1982-1988, and 2000-2010), comparing absolute and relative risks according to sex and self-reported smoking status in two historical cohort studies and in five pooled contemporary cohort studies, among participants who became 55 years of age or older during follow-up.

RESULTS

For women who were current smokers, as compared with women who had never smoked, the relative risks of death from lung cancer were 2.73, 12.65, and 25.66 in the 1960s, 1980s, and contemporary cohorts, respectively; corresponding relative risks for male current smokers, as compared with men who had never smoked, were 12.22, 23.81, and 24.97. In the contemporary cohorts, male and female current smokers also had similar relative risks for death from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) (25.61 for men and 22.35 for women), ischemic heart disease (2.50 for men and 2.86 for women), any type of stroke (1.92 for men and 2.10 for women), and all causes combined (2.80 for men and 2.76 for women). Mortality from COPD among male smokers continued to increase in the contemporary cohorts in nearly all the age groups represented in the study and within each stratum of duration and intensity of smoking. Among men 55 to 74 years of age and women 60 to 74 years of age, all-cause mortality was at least three times as high among current smokers as among those who had never smoked. Smoking cessation at any age dramatically reduced death rates.

CONCLUSIONS

The risk of death from cigarette smoking continues to increase among women and the increased risks are now nearly identical for men and women, as compared with persons who have never smoked. Among men, the risks associated with smoking have plateaued at the high levels seen in the 1980s, except for a continuing, unexplained increase in mortality from COPD.

Autoantibody signatures involving glycolysis and splicesome proteins precede a diagnosis of breast cancer among postmenopausal women

We assessed the autoantibody repertoire of a mouse model engineered to develop breast cancer and the repertoire of autoantibodies in human plasmas collected at a preclinical time point and at the time of clinical diagnosis of breast cancer. In seeking to identify common pathways, networks, and protein families associated with the humoral response, we elucidated the dynamic nature of tumor antigens and autoantibody interactions. Lysate proteins from an immortalized cell line from a MMTV-neu mouse model and from MCF7 human breast cancers were spotted onto nitrocellulose microarrays and hybridized with mouse and human plasma samples, respectively. Immunoglobulin-based plasma immunoreactivity against glycolysis and spliceosome proteins was a predominant feature observed both in tumor-bearing mice and in prediagnostic human samples. Interestingly, autoantibody reactivity was more pronounced further away than closer to diagnosis. We provide evidence for dynamic changes in autoantibody reactivity with tumor development and progression that may depend, in part, on the extent of antigen-antibody interactions.

Evaluation of known oncoantibodies, HER2, p53, and cyclin B1, in prediagnostic breast cancer sera

Serum autoantibodies, directed against oncogenic proteins, have been frequently detected in the sera of patients with breast cancer. It is unknown whether serum antibodies that are identified in patients with established disease could also be detected in patients with newly diagnosed disease or even predate the diagnosis of breast cancer. Using sera collected at the time of treatment, at the time of diagnosis, or before the time of diagnosis, the current study aimed to address the temporal relationship between breast cancer development and serum antibody response. Starting from serum antibodies to eight known breast cancer antigens, we first identified four serum antibodies, HER2/neu, p53, carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA), and cyclin B1, which are significantly increased in the sera collected from patients with breast cancer at the time of treatment. These antibodies were also elevated in breast cancer sera collected at the time of diagnosis. Finally, comparison of antibody responses in prediagnostic samples from women before the development of breast cancer and in controls showed that antibodies to the HER2/neu and p53 can be detected in sera that were collected on average more than 150 days before a breast cancer diagnosis. These results showed that serum autoantibodies commonly reported in sera from patients with established disease can also be detected in prediagnostic sera and may be useful for the early detection of breast cancer.

Quantifying mediating effects of endogenous estrogen and insulin in the relation between obesity, alcohol consumption, and breast cancer

BACKGROUND

Increased exposure to endogenous estrogen and/or insulin may partly explain the relationship of obesity, physical inactivity, and alcohol consumption and postmenopausal breast cancer. However, these potential mediating effects have not been formally quantified in a survival analysis setting.

METHODS

We combined data from two case-cohort studies based in the Women's Health Initiative-Observational Study with serum estradiol levels, one of which also had insulin levels. A total of 1,601 women (601 cases) aged 50 to 79 years who were not using hormone therapy at enrollment were included. Mediating effects were estimated by applying a new method based on the additive hazard model.

RESULTS

A five-unit increase in body mass index (BMI) was associated with 50.0 [95% confidence interval (CI), 23.2-76.6] extra cases per 100,000 women at-risk per year. Of these, 23.8% (95% CI, 2.9-68.4) could be attributed to estradiol and 65.8% (95% CI, 13.6-273.3) through insulin pathways. The mediating effect of estradiol was greater (48.8%; 95% CI, 18.8-161.1) for BMI when restricted to estrogen receptor positive (ER(+)) cases. Consuming 7+ drinks/wk compared with abstinence was associated with 164.9 (95% CI, 45.8-284.9) breast cancer cases per 100,000, but no significant contribution from estradiol was found. The effect of alcohol on breast cancer was restricted to ER(+) breast cancers.

CONCLUSIONS

The relation of BMI with breast cancer was partly mediated through estradiol and, to a greater extent, through insulin.

IMPACT

The findings provide support for evaluation of interventions to lower insulin and estrogen levels in overweight and obese postmenopausal women to reduce breast cancer risk.

Associations between incident ischemic stroke events and stroke and cardiovascular disease-related genome-wide association studies single nucleotide polymorphisms in the Population Architecture Using Genomics and Epidemiology study

BACKGROUND

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified loci associated with ischemic stroke (IS) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) in European-descent individuals, but their replication in different populations has been largely unexplored.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Nine single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) selected from GWAS and meta-analyses of stroke, and 86 SNPs previously associated with myocardial infarction and CVD risk factors, including blood lipids (high density lipoprotein [HDL], low density lipoprotein [LDL], and triglycerides), type 2 diabetes, and body mass index (BMI), were investigated for associations with incident IS in European Americans (EA) N=26 276, African-Americans (AA) N=8970, and American Indians (AI) N=3570 from the Population Architecture using Genomics and Epidemiology Study. Ancestry-specific fixed effects meta-analysis with inverse variance weighting was used to combine study-specific log hazard ratios from Cox proportional hazards models. Two of 9 stroke SNPs (rs783396 and rs1804689) were significantly associated with [corrected] IS hazard in AA; none were significant in this large EA cohort. Of 73 CVD risk factor SNPs tested in EA, 2 (HDL and triglycerides SNPs) were associated with IS. In AA, SNPs associated with LDL, HDL, and BMI were significantly associated with IS (3 of 86 SNPs tested). Out of 58 SNPs tested in AI, 1 LDL SNP was significantly associated with IS.

CONCLUSIONS

Our analyses showing lack of replication in spite of reasonable power for many stroke SNPs and differing results by ancestry highlight the need to follow up on GWAS findings and conduct genetic association studies in diverse populations. We found modest IS associations with BMI and lipids SNPs, though these findings require confirmation.

Body size, physical activity, and risk of triple-negative and estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer

BACKGROUND

Triple-negative breast cancer, characterized by a lack of hormone receptor and HER2 expression, is associated with a particularly poor prognosis. Focusing on potentially modifiable breast cancer risk factors, we examined the relationship between body size, physical activity, and triple-negative disease risk.

METHODS

Using data from 155,723 women enrolled in the Women's Health Initiative (median follow-up, 7.9 years), we assessed associations between baseline body mass index (BMI), BMI in earlier adulthood, waist and hip circumference, waist-hip ratio, recreational physical activity, and risk of triple-negative (n=307) and estrogen receptor-positive (ER+, n=2,610) breast cancers.

RESULTS

Women in the highest versus lowest BMI quartile had 1.35-fold (95% CI, 0.92-1.99) and 1.39-fold (95% CI, 1.22-1.58) increased risks of triple-negative and ER+ breast cancers, respectively. Waist and hip circumferences were positively associated with risk of ER+ breast cancer (Ptrend=0.01 for both measures) but were not associated with triple-negative breast cancer. Compared with women who reported no recreational physical activity, women in the highest activity tertile had similarly lower risks of triple-negative and ER+ breast cancers (HR=0.77; 95% CI, 0.51-1.13; and HR=0.85; 95% CI, 0.74-0.98, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Despite biological and clinical differences, triple-negative and ER+ breast cancers are similarly associated with BMI and recreational physical activity in postmenopausal women. The biological mechanisms underlying these similarities are uncertain and these modest associations require further investigation.

IMPACT

If confirmed, these results suggest potential ways postmenopausal women might modify their risk of both ER+ and triple-negative breast cancers.

Low-fat dietary pattern and change in body-composition traits in the Women's Health Initiative Dietary Modification Trial

BACKGROUND

The Women's Health Initiative Dietary Modification (DM) Trial was a randomized controlled trial that compared the effects of a low-fat (≤20% of total energy) or a usual diet in relation to chronic disease risk in postmenopausal women.

OBJECTIVE

We characterized long-term body-composition changes associated with the DM trial and potential modifiers of these associations.

DESIGN

In the DM trial, 48,835 women aged 50-79 y were randomly assigned to intervention (40%) or comparison (60%) groups. We studied a subset with whole-body dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry scans at baseline and during follow-up. Changes in fat mass (FM), lean mass (LM), and percentage body fat between the intervention (n = 1580) and comparison (n = 2731) groups at years 1, 3, and 6 were compared. By using generalized estimating equations, we calculated overall differences between groups and tested for interactions with age, diabetes, race-ethnicity (white, black, and Hispanic), body mass index (BMI), and hormone therapy (HT).

RESULTS

The intervention women experienced significantly greater reductions in percentage body fat, FM, and LM at years 1 and 3 than did women in the comparison group (all P < 0.05). At year 6, only the FM change was significantly different between groups. Overall, the intervention was associated with reductions in percentage body fat (-0.8%; 95% CI: -1.0%, -0.6%), FM (-1.1 kg; 95% CI: -1.3, -0.8 kg), and LM (-0.17 kg; 95% CI: -0.28, -0.06 kg) during follow-up (all P < 0.003). Intervention associations varied by race-ethnicity, BMI, diabetes, and HT and remained significant after adjustment for physical activity.

CONCLUSION

This intervention was associated with modest long-term body-composition changes; the findings were more robust in years 1 and 3. This trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT00000611.

Reproductive history and oral contraceptive use in relation to risk of triple-negative breast cancer

BACKGROUND

Triple-negative (ie, estrogen receptor [ER], progesterone receptor, and HER2 negative) breast cancer occurs disproportionately among African American women compared with white women and is associated with a worse prognosis than ER-positive (ER+) breast cancer. Hormonally mediated risk factors may be differentially related to risk of triple-negative and ER+ breast cancers.

METHODS

Using data from 155,723 women enrolled in the Women's Health Initiative, we assessed associations between reproductive and menstrual history, breastfeeding, oral contraceptive use, and subtype-specific breast cancer risk. We used Cox regression to evaluate associations with triple-negative (N = 307) and ER+ (N = 2610) breast cancers and used partial likelihood methods to test for differences in subtype-specific hazard ratios (HRs).

RESULTS

Reproductive history was differentially associated with risk of triple-negative and ER+ breast cancers. Nulliparity was associated with decreased risk of triple-negative breast cancer (HR = 0.61, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.37 to 0.97) but increased risk of ER+ breast cancer (HR = 1.35, 95% CI = 1.20 to 1.52). Age-adjusted absolute rates of triple-negative breast cancer were 2.71 and 1.54 per 10,000 person-years in parous and nulliparous women, respectively; by comparison, rates of ER+ breast cancer were 21.10 and 28.16 per 10,000 person-years in the same two groups. Among parous women, the number of births was positively associated with risk of triple-negative disease (HR for three births or more vs one birth = 1.46, 95% CI = 0.82 to 2.63) and inversely associated with risk of ER+ disease (HR = 0.88, 95% CI = 0.74 to 1.04). Ages at menarche and menopause were modestly associated with risk of ER+ but not triple-negative breast cancer; breastfeeding and oral contraceptive use were not associated with either subtype.

CONCLUSION

The association between parity and breast cancer risk differs appreciably for ER+ and triple-negative breast cancers. These findings require further confirmation because the biological mechanisms underlying these differences are uncertain.

Cohorts and consortia conference: a summary report (Banff, Canada, June 17-19, 2009)

Epidemiologic studies have adapted to the genomics era by forming large international consortia to overcome issues of large data volume and small sample size. Whereas both cohort and well-conducted case-control studies can inform disease risk from genetic susceptibility, cohort studies offer the additional advantages of assessing lifestyle and environmental exposure-disease time sequences often over a life course. Consortium involvement poses several logistical and ethical issues to investigators, some of which are unique to cohort studies, including the challenge to harmonize prospectively collected lifestyle and environmental exposures validly across individual studies. An open forum to discuss the opportunities and challenges of large-scale cohorts and their consortia was held in June 2009 in Banff, Canada, and is summarized in this report.

Alcohol consumption and risk of postmenopausal breast cancer by subtype: the women's health initiative observational study

BACKGROUND

Alcohol consumption is a well-established risk factor for breast cancer. This association is thought to be largely hormonally driven, so alcohol use may be more strongly associated with hormonally sensitive breast cancers. Few studies have evaluated how alcohol-related risk varies by breast cancer subtype.

METHODS

We assessed the relationship between self-reported alcohol consumption and postmenopausal breast cancer risk among 87 724 women in the Women's Health Initiative Observational Study prospective cohort from 1993 through 1998. Multivariable adjusted Cox regression models were used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). All statistical tests were two-sided.

RESULTS

A total of 2944 invasive breast cancer patients were diagnosed during follow-up through September 15, 2005. In multivariable adjusted analyses, alcohol consumption was positively related to risk of invasive breast cancer overall, invasive lobular carcinoma, and hormone receptor-positive tumors (all P(trend) ≤ .022). However, alcohol consumption was more strongly related to risk of certain types of invasive breast cancer compared with others. Compared with never drinkers, women who consumed seven or more alcoholic beverages per week had an almost twofold increased risk of hormone receptor-positive invasive lobular carcinoma (HR = 1.82; 95% CI = 1.18 to 2.81) but not a statistically significant increased risk of hormone receptor-positive invasive ductal carcinoma (HR = 1.14; 95% CI = 0.87 to 1.50; difference in HRs per drink per day among current drinkers = 1.15; 95% CI = 1.01 to 1.32, P = .042). The absolute rates of hormone receptor-positive lobular cancer among never drinkers and current drinkers were, 5.2 and 8.5 per 10 000 person-years, respectively, whereas for hormne receptor-positive ductal cancer they were 15.2 and 17.9 per 10 000 person-years, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Alcohol use may be more strongly associated with risk of hormone-sensitive breast cancers than hormone-insensitive subtypes, suggesting distinct etiologic pathways for these two breast cancer subtypes.