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Feng X, Zahed H, Onwuka J, Callister MEJ, Johansson M, Etzioni R, Robbins HA. Cancer Stage Compared With Mortality as End Points in Randomized Clinical Trials of Cancer Screening: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis. JAMA 2024:2817338. [PMID: 38583868 PMCID: PMC11000135 DOI: 10.1001/jama.2024.5814] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/09/2023] [Accepted: 03/19/2024] [Indexed: 04/09/2024]
Abstract
Importance Randomized clinical trials of cancer screening typically use cancer-specific mortality as the primary end point. The incidence of stage III-IV cancer is a potential alternative end point that may accelerate completion of randomized clinical trials of cancer screening. Objective To compare cancer-specific mortality with stage III-IV cancer as end points in randomized clinical trials of cancer screening. Design, Setting, and Participants This meta-analysis included 41 randomized clinical trials of cancer screening conducted in Europe, North America, and Asia published through February 19, 2024. Data extracted included numbers of participants, cancer diagnoses, and cancer deaths in the intervention and comparison groups. For each clinical trial, the effect of screening was calculated as the percentage reduction between the intervention and comparison groups in the incidence of participants with cancer-specific mortality and stage III-IV cancer. Exposures Randomization to a cancer screening test or to a comparison group in a clinical trial of cancer screening. Main Outcomes and Measures End points of cancer-specific mortality and incidence of stage III-IV cancer were compared using Pearson correlation coefficients with 95% CIs, linear regression, and fixed-effects meta-analysis. Results The included randomized clinical trials tested benefits of screening for breast (n = 6), colorectal (n = 11), lung (n = 12), ovarian (n = 4), prostate (n = 4), and other cancers (n = 4). Correlation between reductions in cancer-specific mortality and stage III-IV cancer varied by cancer type (I2 = 65%; P = .02). Correlation was highest for trials that screened for ovarian (Pearson ρ = 0.99 [95% CI, 0.51-1.00]) and lung (Pearson ρ = 0.92 [95% CI, 0.72-0.98]) cancers, moderate for breast cancer (Pearson ρ = 0.70 [95% CI, -0.26 to 0.96]), and weak for colorectal (Pearson ρ = 0.39 [95% CI, -0.27 to 0.80]) and prostate (Pearson ρ = -0.69 [95% CI, -0.99 to 0.81]) cancers. Slopes from linear regression were estimated as 1.15 for ovarian cancer, 0.75 for lung cancer, 0.40 for colorectal cancer, 0.28 for breast cancer, and -3.58 for prostate cancer, suggesting that a given magnitude of reduction in incidence of stage III-IV cancer produced different magnitudes of change in incidence of cancer-specific mortality (P for heterogeneity = .004). Conclusions and Relevance In randomized clinical trials of cancer screening, incidence of late-stage cancer may be a suitable alternative end point to cancer-specific mortality for some cancer types, but is not suitable for others. These results have implications for clinical trials of multicancer screening tests.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xiaoshuang Feng
- Genomic Epidemiology Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Hana Zahed
- Genomic Epidemiology Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Justina Onwuka
- Genomic Epidemiology Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Matthew E. J. Callister
- Department of Respiratory Medicine, Leeds Teaching Hospitals, St James’s University Hospital, Leeds, United Kingdom
- Leeds Institute of Health Sciences, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom
| | - Mattias Johansson
- Genomic Epidemiology Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Ruth Etzioni
- Division of Public Health Sciences, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, Washington
- Center for Early Detection Advanced Research, Knight Cancer Institute, Portland, Oregon
| | - Hilary A. Robbins
- Genomic Epidemiology Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
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Dunlop KLA, Singh N, Robbins HA, Zahed H, Johansson M, Rankin NM, Cust AE. Implementation considerations for risk-tailored cancer screening in the population: A scoping review. Prev Med 2024; 181:107897. [PMID: 38378124 DOI: 10.1016/j.ypmed.2024.107897] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/28/2023] [Revised: 02/10/2024] [Accepted: 02/14/2024] [Indexed: 02/22/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Risk-tailored screening has emerged as a promising approach to optimise the balance of benefits and harms of existing population cancer screening programs. It tailors screening (e.g., eligibility, frequency, interval, test type) to individual risk rather than the current one-size-fits-all approach of most organised population screening programs. However, the implementation of risk-tailored cancer screening in the population is challenging as it requires a change of practice at multiple levels i.e., individual, provider, health system levels. This scoping review aims to synthesise current implementation considerations for risk-tailored cancer screening in the population, identifying barriers, facilitators, and associated implementation outcomes. METHODS Relevant studies were identified via database searches up to February 2023. Results were synthesised using Tierney et al. (2020) guidance for evidence synthesis of implementation outcomes and a multilevel framework. RESULTS Of 4138 titles identified, 74 studies met the inclusion criteria. Most studies in this review focused on the implementation outcomes of acceptability, feasibility, and appropriateness, reflecting the pre-implementation stage of most research to date. Only six studies included an implementation framework. The review identified consistent evidence that risk-tailored screening is largely acceptable across population groups, however reluctance to accept a reduction in screening frequency for low-risk informed by cultural norms, presents a major barrier. Limited studies were identified for cancer types other than breast cancer. CONCLUSIONS Implementation strategies will need to address alternate models of delivery, education of health professionals, communication with the public, screening options for people at low risk of cancer, and inequity in outcomes across cancer types.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kate L A Dunlop
- The Daffodil Centre, The University of Sydney, a joint venture with Cancer Council NSW, Sydney, NSW, Australia; Melanoma Institute Australia, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
| | - Nehal Singh
- The Daffodil Centre, The University of Sydney, a joint venture with Cancer Council NSW, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Hilary A Robbins
- International Agency for Research on Cancer, World Health Organization, Lyon, France
| | - Hana Zahed
- International Agency for Research on Cancer, World Health Organization, Lyon, France
| | - Mattias Johansson
- International Agency for Research on Cancer, World Health Organization, Lyon, France
| | - Nicole M Rankin
- Centre for Health Policy, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, University of Melbourne, Victoria, Australia; Sydney School of Public Health, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Anne E Cust
- The Daffodil Centre, The University of Sydney, a joint venture with Cancer Council NSW, Sydney, NSW, Australia; Melanoma Institute Australia, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
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Yang JJ, Wen W, Zahed H, Zheng W, Lan Q, Abe SK, Rahman MS, Islam MR, Saito E, Gupta PC, Tamakoshi A, Koh WP, Gao YT, Sakata R, Tsuji I, Malekzadeh R, Sugawara Y, Kim J, Ito H, Nagata C, You SL, Park SK, Yuan JM, Shin MH, Kweon SS, Yi SW, Pednekar MS, Kimura T, Cai H, Lu Y, Etemadi A, Kanemura S, Wada K, Chen CJ, Shin A, Wang R, Ahn YO, Shin MH, Ohrr H, Sheikh M, Blechter B, Ahsan H, Boffetta P, Chia KS, Matsuo K, Qiao YL, Rothman N, Inoue M, Kang D, Robbins HA, Shu XO. Lung Cancer Risk Prediction Models for Asian Ever-Smokers. J Thorac Oncol 2024; 19:451-464. [PMID: 37944700 DOI: 10.1016/j.jtho.2023.11.002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/26/2023] [Revised: 10/19/2023] [Accepted: 11/04/2023] [Indexed: 11/12/2023]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Although lung cancer prediction models are widely used to support risk-based screening, their performance outside Western populations remains uncertain. This study aims to evaluate the performance of 11 existing risk prediction models in multiple Asian populations and to refit prediction models for Asians. METHODS In a pooled analysis of 186,458 Asian ever-smokers from 19 prospective cohorts, we assessed calibration (expected-to-observed ratio) and discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC]) for each model. In addition, we developed the "Shanghai models" to better refine risk models for Asians on the basis of two well-characterized population-based prospective cohorts and externally validated them in other Asian cohorts. RESULTS Among the 11 models, the Lung Cancer Death Risk Assessment Tool yielded the highest AUC (AUC [95% confidence interval (CI)] = 0.71 [0.67-0.74] for lung cancer death and 0.69 [0.67-0.72] for lung cancer incidence) and the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial Model had good calibration overall (expected-to-observed ratio [95% CI] = 1.06 [0.90-1.25]). Nevertheless, these models substantially underestimated lung cancer risk among Asians who reported less than 10 smoking pack-years or stopped smoking more than or equal to 20 years ago. The Shanghai models were found to have marginal improvement overall in discrimination (AUC [95% CI] = 0.72 [0.69-0.74] for lung cancer death and 0.70 [0.67-0.72] for lung cancer incidence) but consistently outperformed the selected Western models among low-intensity smokers and long-term quitters. CONCLUSIONS The Shanghai models had comparable performance overall to the best existing models, but they improved much in predicting the lung cancer risk of low-intensity smokers and long-term quitters in Asia.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jae Jeong Yang
- Division of Epidemiology, Department of Medicine, Vanderbilt Epidemiology Center, Vanderbilt-Ingram Cancer Center, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, Tennessee; Department of Surgery, University of Florida College of Medicine, Gainesville, Florida; University of Florida Health Cancer Center, Gainesville, Florida
| | - Wanqing Wen
- Division of Epidemiology, Department of Medicine, Vanderbilt Epidemiology Center, Vanderbilt-Ingram Cancer Center, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, Tennessee
| | - Hana Zahed
- International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Wei Zheng
- Division of Epidemiology, Department of Medicine, Vanderbilt Epidemiology Center, Vanderbilt-Ingram Cancer Center, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, Tennessee
| | - Qing Lan
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, Occupational and Environmental Epidemiology Branch, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Rockville, Maryland
| | - Sarah K Abe
- Division of Prevention, National Cancer Center Institute for Cancer Control, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Md Shafiur Rahman
- Division of Prevention, National Cancer Center Institute for Cancer Control, Tokyo, Japan; Research Center for Child Mental Development, Hamamatsu University School of Medicine, Hamamatsu, Japan
| | - Md Rashedul Islam
- Division of Prevention, National Cancer Center Institute for Cancer Control, Tokyo, Japan; Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, Hitotsubashi University, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Eiko Saito
- Institute for Global Health Policy Research, National Center for Global Health and Medicine, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Prakash C Gupta
- Healis - Sekhsaria Institute for Public Health Mahaleb, Navi Mumbai, India
| | - Akiko Tamakoshi
- Department of Public Health, Hokkaido University Faculty of Medicine, Sapporo, Japan
| | - Woon-Puay Koh
- Healthy Longevity Translational Research Program, Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore; Singapore Institute for Clinical Sciences, Agency for Science Technology and Research (A∗STAR), Singapore, Singapore
| | - Yu-Tang Gao
- Department of Epidemiology, Shanghai Cancer Institute Renji Hospital, Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, People's Republic of China
| | - Ritsu Sakata
- Radiation Effects Research Foundation, Hiroshima, Japan
| | - Ichiro Tsuji
- Tohoku University Graduate School of Medicine, Miyagi Prefecture, Japan
| | - Reza Malekzadeh
- Digestive Oncology Research Center, Digestive Diseases Research Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Yumi Sugawara
- Tohoku University Graduate School of Medicine, Miyagi Prefecture, Japan
| | - Jeongseon Kim
- Graduate School of Cancer Science and Policy, National Cancer Center, Goyang, Republic of Korea
| | - Hidemi Ito
- Division of Cancer Information and Control, Department of Preventive Medicine, Aichi Cancer Center Research Institute, Nagoya, Japan; Division of Descriptive Cancer Epidemiology, Nagoya University Graduate School of Medicine, Nagoya, Japan
| | - Chisato Nagata
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, Gifu University Graduate School of Medicine, Gifu, Japan
| | - San-Lin You
- School of Medicine & Big Data Research Center, Fu Jen Catholic University, New Taipei City, Taiwan
| | - Sue K Park
- Department of Preventive Medicine, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Jian-Min Yuan
- Division of Cancer Control and Population Sciences, UPMC Hillman Cancer Center, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania; Department of Epidemiology, Graduate School of Public Health, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
| | - Myung-Hee Shin
- Department of Social and Preventive Medicine, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Sun-Seog Kweon
- Department of Preventive Medicine, Chonnam National University Medical School, Gwangju, Republic of Korea
| | - Sang-Wook Yi
- Department of Preventive Medicine and Public Health, Catholic Kwandong University College of Medicine, Gangneung, Republic of Korea
| | - Mangesh S Pednekar
- Healis - Sekhsaria Institute for Public Health Mahaleb, Navi Mumbai, India
| | - Takashi Kimura
- Department of Public Health, Hokkaido University Faculty of Medicine, Sapporo, Japan
| | - Hui Cai
- Division of Epidemiology, Department of Medicine, Vanderbilt Epidemiology Center, Vanderbilt-Ingram Cancer Center, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, Tennessee
| | - Yukai Lu
- Tohoku University Graduate School of Medicine, Miyagi Prefecture, Japan
| | - Arash Etemadi
- Metabolic Epidemiology Branch, Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland
| | - Seiki Kanemura
- Tohoku University Graduate School of Medicine, Miyagi Prefecture, Japan
| | - Keiko Wada
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, Gifu University Graduate School of Medicine, Gifu, Japan
| | - Chien-Jen Chen
- Genomics Research Center, Academia Sinica, Taipei City, Taiwan
| | - Aesun Shin
- Department of Preventive Medicine, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea; Cancer Research Institute, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Renwei Wang
- Division of Cancer Control and Population Sciences, UPMC Hillman Cancer Center, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
| | - Yoon-Ok Ahn
- Department of Preventive Medicine, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Min-Ho Shin
- Department of Preventive Medicine, Chonnam National University Medical School, Gwangju, Republic of Korea
| | - Heechoul Ohrr
- Department of Preventive Medicine, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Mahdi Sheikh
- International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Batel Blechter
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, Occupational and Environmental Epidemiology Branch, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Rockville, Maryland
| | - Habibul Ahsan
- Department of Public Health Sciences, University of Chicago, Illinois
| | - Paolo Boffetta
- Stony Brook Cancer Center, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, New York; Department of Medical and Surgical Sciences, University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy
| | - Kee Seng Chia
- Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Keitaro Matsuo
- Division Cancer Epidemiology and Prevention, Aichi Cancer Center Research Institute, Nagoya, Japan; Department of Cancer Epidemiology, Nagoya University Graduate School of Medicine, Nagoya, Japan
| | - You-Lin Qiao
- School of Population Medicine and Public Health, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, People's Republic of China
| | - Nathaniel Rothman
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, Occupational and Environmental Epidemiology Branch, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Rockville, Maryland
| | - Manami Inoue
- Division of Prevention, National Cancer Center Institute for Cancer Control, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Daehee Kang
- Department of Preventive Medicine, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea; Cancer Research Institute, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | | | - Xiao-Ou Shu
- Division of Epidemiology, Department of Medicine, Vanderbilt Epidemiology Center, Vanderbilt-Ingram Cancer Center, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, Tennessee.
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4
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Engels EA, Shiels MS, Barnabas RV, Bohlius J, Brennan P, Castilho J, Chanock SJ, Clarke MA, Coghill AE, Combes JD, Dryden-Peterson S, D'Souza G, Gopal S, Jaquet A, Lurain K, Makinson A, Martin J, Muchengeti M, Newton R, Okuku F, Orem J, Palefsky JM, Ramaswami R, Robbins HA, Sigel K, Silver S, Suneja G, Yarchoan R, Clifford GM. State of the science and future directions for research on HIV and cancer: Summary of a joint workshop sponsored by IARC and NCI. Int J Cancer 2024; 154:596-606. [PMID: 37715370 DOI: 10.1002/ijc.34727] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/24/2023] [Revised: 06/14/2023] [Accepted: 06/23/2023] [Indexed: 09/17/2023]
Abstract
An estimated 38 million people live with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) worldwide and are at excess risk for multiple cancer types. Elevated cancer risks in people living with HIV (PLWH) are driven primarily by increased exposure to carcinogens, most notably oncogenic viruses acquired through shared transmission routes, plus acceleration of viral carcinogenesis by HIV-related immunosuppression. In the era of widespread antiretroviral therapy (ART), life expectancy of PLWH has increased, with cancer now a leading cause of co-morbidity and death. Furthermore, the types of cancers occurring among PLWH are shifting over time and vary in their relative burden in different parts of the world. In this context, the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) and the US National Cancer Institute (NCI) convened a meeting in September 2022 of multinational and multidisciplinary experts to focus on cancer in PLWH. This report summarizes the proceedings, including a review of the state of the science of cancer descriptive epidemiology, etiology, molecular tumor characterization, primary and secondary prevention, treatment disparities and survival in PLWH around the world. A consensus of key research priorities and recommendations in these domains is also presented.
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Affiliation(s)
- Eric A Engels
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Rockville, Maryland, USA
| | - Meredith S Shiels
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Rockville, Maryland, USA
| | - Ruanne V Barnabas
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Julia Bohlius
- University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
- Department for Epidemiology and Public Health, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Allschwil, Switzerland
| | - Paul Brennan
- Genomic Epidemiology Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC/WHO), Lyon, France
| | - Jessica Castilho
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, Tennessee, USA
| | - Stephen J Chanock
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Rockville, Maryland, USA
| | - Megan A Clarke
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Rockville, Maryland, USA
| | - Anna E Coghill
- Department of Cancer Epidemiology and Center for Immunization and Infection Research in Cancer, H. Lee Moffitt Cancer Center and Research Institute, Tampa, Florida, USA
| | - Jean-Damien Combes
- International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC/WHO), Early Detection, Prevention and Infections Branch, Lyon, France
| | - Scott Dryden-Peterson
- Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
- Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Gypsyamber D'Souza
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
| | - Satish Gopal
- Center for Global Health, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Rockville, Maryland, USA
| | - Antoine Jaquet
- National Institute for Health and Medical Research (INSERM), UMR, 1219, Research Institute for Sustainable Development (IRD), EMR 271, Bordeaux Population, Health Centre, University of Bordeaux, Bordeaux, France
| | - Kathryn Lurain
- HIV and AIDS Malignancy Branch, Center for Cancer Research, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, USA
| | - Alain Makinson
- Infectious Disease Department, CHU La Colombière, Montpellier & Inserm U1175, University of Montpellier, Montpellier, France
| | - Jeffrey Martin
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California, San Francisco, California, USA
| | - Mazvita Muchengeti
- National Cancer Registry, National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
- Division of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
- South African DSI-NRF Centre of Excellence in Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis (SACEMA), Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa
| | - Robert Newton
- MRC/UVRI and LSHTM Uganda Research Unit, Entebbe, Uganda
- University of York, York, UK
| | - Fred Okuku
- Uganda Cancer Institute, Kampala, Uganda
| | | | - Joel M Palefsky
- Department of Medicine, University of California, San Francisco, California, USA
| | - Ramya Ramaswami
- HIV and AIDS Malignancy Branch, Center for Cancer Research, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, USA
| | - Hilary A Robbins
- Genomic Epidemiology Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC/WHO), Lyon, France
| | - Keith Sigel
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, New York, USA
| | | | - Gita Suneja
- Department of Radiation Oncology, Huntsman Cancer Institute at the University of Utah, Salt Lake City, Utah, USA
| | - Robert Yarchoan
- HIV and AIDS Malignancy Branch, Center for Cancer Research, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, USA
| | - Gary M Clifford
- International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC/WHO), Early Detection, Prevention and Infections Branch, Lyon, France
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Lam S, Bai C, Baldwin DR, Chen Y, Connolly C, de Koning H, Heuvelmans MA, Hu P, Kazerooni EA, Lancaster HL, Langs G, McWilliams A, Osarogiagbon RU, Oudkerk M, Peters M, Robbins HA, Sahar L, Smith RA, Triphuridet N, Field J. Current and Future Perspectives on Computed Tomography Screening for Lung Cancer: A Roadmap From 2023 to 2027 From the International Association for the Study of Lung Cancer. J Thorac Oncol 2024; 19:36-51. [PMID: 37487906 DOI: 10.1016/j.jtho.2023.07.019] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/05/2023] [Revised: 06/13/2023] [Accepted: 07/18/2023] [Indexed: 07/26/2023]
Abstract
Low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) screening for lung cancer substantially reduces mortality from lung cancer, as revealed in randomized controlled trials and meta-analyses. This review is based on the ninth CT screening symposium of the International Association for the Study of Lung Cancer, which focuses on the major themes pertinent to the successful global implementation of LDCT screening and develops a strategy to further the implementation of lung cancer screening globally. These recommendations provide a 5-year roadmap to advance the implementation of LDCT screening globally, including the following: (1) establish universal screening program quality indicators; (2) establish evidence-based criteria to identify individuals who have never smoked but are at high-risk of developing lung cancer; (3) develop recommendations for incidentally detected lung nodule tracking and management protocols to complement programmatic lung cancer screening; (4) Integrate artificial intelligence and biomarkers to increase the prediction of malignancy in suspicious CT screen-detected lesions; and (5) standardize high-quality performance artificial intelligence protocols that lead to substantial reductions in costs, resource utilization and radiologist reporting time; (6) personalize CT screening intervals on the basis of an individual's lung cancer risk; (7) develop evidence to support clinical management and cost-effectiveness of other identified abnormalities on a lung cancer screening CT; (8) develop publicly accessible, easy-to-use geospatial tools to plan and monitor equitable access to screening services; and (9) establish a global shared education resource for lung cancer screening CT to ensure high-quality reading and reporting.
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Affiliation(s)
- Stephen Lam
- Department of Integrative Oncology, British Columbia Cancer Research Institute, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada; Department of Medicine, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada.
| | - Chunxue Bai
- Shanghai Respiratory Research Institute and Chinese Alliance Against Cancer, Shanghai, People's Republic of China
| | - David R Baldwin
- Nottingham University Hospitals National Health Services (NHS) Trust, Nottingham, United Kingdom
| | - Yan Chen
- Digital Screening, Faculty of Medicine & Health Sciences, University of Nottingham Medical School, Nottingham, United Kingdom
| | - Casey Connolly
- International Association for the Study of Lung Cancer, Denver, Colorado
| | - Harry de Koning
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC University Medical Centre Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Marjolein A Heuvelmans
- University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands; Department of Epidemiology, University Medical Center Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands; The Institute for Diagnostic Accuracy, Groningen, The Netherlands
| | - Ping Hu
- Division of Cancer Prevention, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland
| | - Ella A Kazerooni
- Division of Cardiothoracic Radiology, Department of Radiology, University of Michigan Medical School, Ann Arbor, Michigan; Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, University of Michigan Medical School, Ann Arbor, Michigan
| | - Harriet L Lancaster
- University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands; Department of Epidemiology, University Medical Center Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands; The Institute for Diagnostic Accuracy, Groningen, The Netherlands
| | - Georg Langs
- Computational Imaging Research Laboratory, Department of Biomedical Imaging and Image-guided Therapy, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
| | - Annette McWilliams
- Department of Respiratory Medicine, Fiona Stanley Hospital, Murdoch, Western Australia, Australia; Australia University of Western Australia, Nedlands, Western Australia
| | | | - Matthijs Oudkerk
- Center for Medical Imaging and The Institute for Diagnostic Accuracy, Faculty of Medical Sciences, University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands
| | - Matthew Peters
- Woolcock Institute of Respiratory Medicine, Macquarie University, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Hilary A Robbins
- Genomic Epidemiology Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Liora Sahar
- Data Science, American Cancer Society, Atlanta, Georgia
| | - Robert A Smith
- Early Cancer Detection Science, American Cancer Society, Atlanta, Georgia
| | | | - John Field
- Department of Molecular and Clinical Cancer Medicine, The University of Liverpool, Liverpool, United Kingdom
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6
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Zahed H, Feng X, Sheikh M, Bray F, Ferlay J, Ginsburg O, Shiels MS, Robbins HA. Age at diagnosis for lung, colon, breast and prostate cancers: An international comparative study. Int J Cancer 2024; 154:28-40. [PMID: 37615573 DOI: 10.1002/ijc.34671] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/23/2023] [Revised: 07/06/2023] [Accepted: 07/10/2023] [Indexed: 08/25/2023]
Abstract
Differences in the average age at cancer diagnosis are observed across countries. We therefore aimed to assess international variation in the median age at diagnosis of common cancers worldwide, after adjusting for differences in population age structure. We used IARC's Cancer Incidence in Five Continents (CI5) Volume XI database, comprising cancer diagnoses between 2008 and 2012 from population-based cancer registries in 65 countries. We calculated crude median ages at diagnosis for lung, colon, breast and prostate cancers in each country, then adjusted for population age differences using indirect standardization. We showed that median ages at diagnosis changed by up to 10 years after standardization, typically increasing in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) and decreasing in high-income countries (HICs), given relatively younger and older populations, respectively. After standardization, the range of ages at diagnosis was 12 years for lung cancer (median age 61-Bulgaria vs 73-Bahrain), 12 years for colon cancer (60-the Islamic Republic of Iran vs 72-Peru), 10 years for female breast cancer (49-Algeria, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Republic of Korea vs 59-USA and others) and 10 years for prostate cancer (65-USA, Lithuania vs 75-Philippines). Compared to HICs, populations in LMICs were diagnosed with colon cancer at younger ages but with prostate cancer at older ages (both pLMICS-vs-HICs < 0.001). In countries with higher smoking prevalence, lung cancers were diagnosed at younger ages in both women and men (both pcorr < 0.001). Female breast cancer tended to be diagnosed at younger ages in East Asia, the Middle East and Africa. Our findings suggest that the differences in median ages at cancer diagnosis worldwide likely reflect population-level variation in risk factors and cancer control measures, including screening.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hana Zahed
- Genomic Epidemiology Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Xiaoshuang Feng
- Genomic Epidemiology Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Mahdi Sheikh
- Genomic Epidemiology Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Freddie Bray
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Jacques Ferlay
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Ophira Ginsburg
- Center for Global Health, National Cancer Institute, Rockville, Maryland, USA
| | - Meredith S Shiels
- Infections and Immunoepidemiology Branch, Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Rockville, Maryland, USA
| | - Hilary A Robbins
- Genomic Epidemiology Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
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Alcala K, Zahed H, Cortez Cardoso Penha R, Alcala N, Robbins HA, Smith-Byrne K, Martin RM, Muller DC, Brennan P, Johansson M. Kidney Function and Risk of Renal Cell Carcinoma. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2023; 32:1644-1650. [PMID: 37668600 PMCID: PMC10618735 DOI: 10.1158/1055-9965.epi-23-0558] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/16/2023] [Revised: 07/13/2023] [Accepted: 08/31/2023] [Indexed: 09/06/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND We evaluated the temporal association between kidney function, assessed by estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), and the risk of incident renal cell carcinoma (RCC). We also evaluated whether eGFR could improve RCC risk discrimination beyond established risk factors. METHODS We analyzed the UK Biobank cohort, including 463,178 participants of whom 1,447 were diagnosed with RCC during 5,696,963 person-years of follow-up. We evaluated the temporal association between eGFR and RCC risk using flexible parametric survival models, adjusted for C-reactive protein and RCC risk factors. eGFR was calculated from creatinine and cystatin C levels. RESULTS Lower eGFR, an indication of poor kidney function, was associated with higher RCC risk when measured up to 5 years prior to diagnosis. The RCC HR per SD decrease in eGFR when measured 1 year before diagnosis was 1.26 [95% confidence interval (95% CI), 1.16-1.37], and 1.11 (95% CI, 1.05-1.17) when measured 5 years before diagnosis. Adding eGFR to the RCC risk model provided a small improvement in risk discrimination 1 year before diagnosis with an AUC of 0.73 (95% CI, 0.67-0.84) compared with the published model (0.69; 95% CI, 0.63-0.79). CONCLUSIONS This study demonstrated that kidney function markers are associated with RCC risk, but the nature of these associations are consistent with reversed causality. Markers of kidney function provided limited improvements in RCC risk discrimination beyond established risk factors. IMPACT eGFR may be of potential use to identify individuals in the extremes of the risk distribution.
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Affiliation(s)
- Karine Alcala
- Genomic Epidemiology Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Hana Zahed
- Genomic Epidemiology Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | | | - Nicolas Alcala
- Genomic Epidemiology Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Hilary A. Robbins
- Genomic Epidemiology Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Karl Smith-Byrne
- Cancer Epidemiology Unit, Oxford Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Richard M. Martin
- Population Health Sciences, Bristol Medical School, University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom
- NIHR Bristol Biomedical Research Centre, University Hospitals Bristol and Weston NHS Foundation Trust and the University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom
- Medical Research Council Integrative Epidemiology Unit, University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom
| | | | - Paul Brennan
- Genomic Epidemiology Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Mattias Johansson
- Genomic Epidemiology Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
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Affiliation(s)
- Richard Lee
- Early Diagnosis and Detection Centre, the National Institute for Health and Care Research Biomedical Research Centre at the Royal Marsden and Institute of Cancer Research, London SW3 6JJ, UK.
| | - Hilary A Robbins
- Genomic Epidemiology Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
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Callister MEJ, Crosbie EJ, Crosbie PAJ, Robbins HA. Evaluating multi-cancer early detection tests: an argument for the outcome of recurrence-updated stage. Br J Cancer 2023; 129:1209-1211. [PMID: 37726480 PMCID: PMC10575849 DOI: 10.1038/s41416-023-02434-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/09/2023] [Revised: 08/29/2023] [Accepted: 09/08/2023] [Indexed: 09/21/2023] Open
Abstract
The advent of multi-cancer early detection (MCED) tests has the potential to revolutionise the diagnosis of cancer, improving patient outcomes through early diagnosis and increased use of curative therapies. The ongoing NHS-Galleri trial is evaluating an MCED test developed by GRAIL, and is using as its primary endpoint the absolute incidence of late-stage cancer. Proponents of this outcome argue that if the test reduces the number of patients with advanced, incurable cancer, it can be reasonably assumed to be benefitting patients by reducing cancer mortality. Here, we argue that this assumption may not always hold due to the phenomenon of micro-metastatic disease, and propose an adjustment to the trial outcome so that it may better reflect the expected effect of the test on cancer mortality.
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Affiliation(s)
- Matthew E J Callister
- Consultant Respiratory Physician, Leeds Teaching Hospitals, Leeds, UK.
- Honorary Professor of Respiratory Medicine, Leeds Institute of Health Sciences, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK.
| | - Emma J Crosbie
- National Institute for Health and Care Research Advanced Fellow, Professor and Honorary Consultant in Gynaecological Oncology, Division of Cancer Sciences, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK
| | - Philip A J Crosbie
- Professor of Respiratory Medicine, Division of Infection, Immunity and Respiratory Medicine, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK
| | - Hilary A Robbins
- Scientist, Genomic Epidemiology Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
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10
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Feng X, Wu WYY, Onwuka JU, Haider Z, Alcala K, Smith-Byrne K, Zahed H, Guida F, Wang R, Bassett JK, Stevens V, Wang Y, Weinstein S, Freedman ND, Chen C, Tinker L, Nøst TH, Koh WP, Muller D, Colorado-Yohar SM, Tumino R, Hung RJ, Amos CI, Lin X, Zhang X, Arslan AA, Sánchez MJ, Sørgjerd EP, Severi G, Hveem K, Brennan P, Langhammer A, Milne RL, Yuan JM, Melin B, Johansson M, Robbins HA, Johansson M. Lung cancer risk discrimination of prediagnostic proteomics measurements compared with existing prediction tools. J Natl Cancer Inst 2023; 115:1050-1059. [PMID: 37260165 PMCID: PMC10483263 DOI: 10.1093/jnci/djad071] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/23/2022] [Revised: 04/05/2023] [Accepted: 04/08/2023] [Indexed: 06/02/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND We sought to develop a proteomics-based risk model for lung cancer and evaluate its risk-discriminatory performance in comparison with a smoking-based risk model (PLCOm2012) and a commercially available autoantibody biomarker test. METHODS We designed a case-control study nested in 6 prospective cohorts, including 624 lung cancer participants who donated blood samples at most 3 years prior to lung cancer diagnosis and 624 smoking-matched cancer free participants who were assayed for 302 proteins. We used 470 case-control pairs from 4 cohorts to select proteins and train a protein-based risk model. We subsequently used 154 case-control pairs from 2 cohorts to compare the risk-discriminatory performance of the protein-based model with that of the Early Cancer Detection Test (EarlyCDT)-Lung and the PLCOm2012 model using receiver operating characteristics analysis and by estimating models' sensitivity. All tests were 2-sided. RESULTS The area under the curve for the protein-based risk model in the validation sample was 0.75 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.70 to 0.81) compared with 0.64 (95% CI = 0.57 to 0.70) for the PLCOm2012 model (Pdifference = .001). The EarlyCDT-Lung had a sensitivity of 14% (95% CI = 8.2% to 19%) and a specificity of 86% (95% CI = 81% to 92%) for incident lung cancer. At the same specificity of 86%, the sensitivity for the protein-based risk model was estimated at 49% (95% CI = 41% to 57%) and 30% (95% CI = 23% to 37%) for the PLCOm2012 model. CONCLUSION Circulating proteins showed promise in predicting incident lung cancer and outperformed a standard risk prediction model and the commercialized EarlyCDT-Lung.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xiaoshuang Feng
- Genomic Epidemiology Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Wendy Yi-Ying Wu
- Department of Radiation Sciences, Oncology, Umea University, Umea, Sweden
| | | | - Zahra Haider
- Department of Radiation Sciences, Oncology, Umea University, Umea, Sweden
| | - Karine Alcala
- Genomic Epidemiology Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | | | - Hana Zahed
- Genomic Epidemiology Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Florence Guida
- Environment and Lifestyle Epidemiology Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Renwei Wang
- Division of Cancer Control and Population Sciences, UPMC Hillman Cancer Center, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA, USA
| | - Julie K Bassett
- Cancer Epidemiology Division, Cancer Council Victoria, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Victoria Stevens
- Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Ying Wang
- American Cancer Society, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Stephanie Weinstein
- Metabolic Epidemiology Branch, Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Rockville, MD, USA
| | - Neal D Freedman
- Metabolic Epidemiology Branch, Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Rockville, MD, USA
| | - Chu Chen
- Program in Epidemiology, Division of Public Health Sciences, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Lesley Tinker
- Women’s Health Initiative Clinical Coordinating Center, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Therese Haugdahl Nøst
- Department of Community Medicine, University of Tromsø, The Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway
| | - Woon-Puay Koh
- Healthy Longevity Translational Research Programme, Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
- Singapore Institute for Clinical Sciences, Agency for Science Technology and Research (A*STAR), Singapore, Singapore
| | - David Muller
- Division of Genetic Medicine, Imperial College London School of Public Health, London, UK
| | - Sandra M Colorado-Yohar
- Department of Epidemiology, Murcia Regional Health Council, IMIB-Arrixaca, Murcia, Spain
- Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain
- Research Group on Demography and Health, National Faculty of Public Health, University of Antioquia, Medellín, Colombia
| | - Rosario Tumino
- Hyblean Association for Epidemiological Research, AIRE ONLUS Ragusa, Ragusa, Italy
| | - Rayjean J Hung
- Prosserman Centre for Population Health Research, Lunenfeld-Tanenbaum Research Institute, Sinai Health, Toronto, Canada
- Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada
| | - Christopher I Amos
- Institute for Clinical and Translational Research, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX, USA
| | - Xihong Lin
- Department of Biostatistics, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
- Program in Medical and Population Genetics, Broad Institute of Harvard and MIT, Cambridge, MA, USA
- Department of Statistics, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA
| | - Xuehong Zhang
- Brigham and Women’s Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Alan A Arslan
- Department of Population Health, New York University School of Medicine, New York, NY, USA
| | - Maria-Jose Sánchez
- Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain
- Escuela Andaluza de Salud Pública (EASP), Granada, Spain
- Instituto de Investigación Biosanitaria ib, Granada, Spain
- Department of Preventive Medicine and Public Health, University of Granada, Granada, Spain
| | - Elin Pettersen Sørgjerd
- HUNT Research Centre, Department of Public Health and Nursing, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Levanger, Norway
| | | | - Kristian Hveem
- HUNT Research Centre, Department of Public Health and Nursing, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Levanger, Norway
| | - Paul Brennan
- Genomic Epidemiology Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Arnulf Langhammer
- HUNT Research Centre, Department of Public Health and Nursing, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Levanger, Norway
- Levanger Hospital, Nord-Trøndelag Hospital Trust, Levanger, Norway
| | - Roger L Milne
- Cancer Epidemiology Division, Cancer Council Victoria, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
- Centre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
- Precision Medicine, School of Clinical Sciences at Monash Health, Monash University, Clayton, VIC, Australia
| | - Jian-Min Yuan
- Division of Cancer Control and Population Sciences, UPMC Hillman Cancer Center, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA, USA
- Department of Epidemiology, Graduate School of Public Health, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA, USA
| | - Beatrice Melin
- Department of Radiation Sciences, Oncology, Umea University, Umea, Sweden
| | - Mikael Johansson
- Department of Radiation Sciences, Oncology, Umea University, Umea, Sweden
| | - Hilary A Robbins
- Genomic Epidemiology Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Mattias Johansson
- Genomic Epidemiology Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
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Khodayari Moez E, Warkentin MT, Brhane Y, Lam S, Field JK, Liu G, Zulueta JJ, Valencia K, Mesa-Guzman M, Nialet AP, Atkar-Khattra S, Davies MPA, Grant B, Murison K, Montuenga LM, Amos CI, Robbins HA, Johansson M, Hung RJ. Circulating proteome for pulmonary nodule malignancy. J Natl Cancer Inst 2023; 115:1060-1070. [PMID: 37369027 PMCID: PMC10483334 DOI: 10.1093/jnci/djad122] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/26/2023] [Revised: 05/29/2023] [Accepted: 06/22/2023] [Indexed: 06/29/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Although lung cancer screening with low-dose computed tomography is rolling out in many areas of the world, differentiating indeterminate pulmonary nodules remains a major challenge. We conducted one of the first systematic investigations of circulating protein markers to differentiate malignant from benign screen-detected pulmonary nodules. METHODS Based on 4 international low-dose computed tomography screening studies, we assayed 1078 protein markers using prediagnostic blood samples from 1253 participants based on a nested case-control design. Protein markers were measured using proximity extension assays, and data were analyzed using multivariable logistic regression, random forest, and penalized regressions. Protein burden scores (PBSs) for overall nodule malignancy and imminent tumors were estimated. RESULTS We identified 36 potentially informative circulating protein markers differentiating malignant from benign nodules, representing a tightly connected biological network. Ten markers were found to be particularly relevant for imminent lung cancer diagnoses within 1 year. Increases in PBSs for overall nodule malignancy and imminent tumors by 1 standard deviation were associated with odds ratios of 2.29 (95% confidence interval: 1.95 to 2.72) and 2.81 (95% confidence interval: 2.27 to 3.54) for nodule malignancy overall and within 1 year of diagnosis, respectively. Both PBSs for overall nodule malignancy and for imminent tumors were substantially higher for those with malignant nodules than for those with benign nodules, even when limited to Lung Computed Tomography Screening Reporting and Data System (LungRADS) category 4 (P < .001). CONCLUSIONS Circulating protein markers can help differentiate malignant from benign pulmonary nodules. Validation with an independent computed tomographic screening study will be required before clinical implementation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Elham Khodayari Moez
- Prosserman Centre for Population Health Research, Lunenfeld-Tanenbaum Research Institute, Sinai Health, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Matthew T Warkentin
- Prosserman Centre for Population Health Research, Lunenfeld-Tanenbaum Research Institute, Sinai Health, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Yonathan Brhane
- Prosserman Centre for Population Health Research, Lunenfeld-Tanenbaum Research Institute, Sinai Health, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Stephen Lam
- Integrative Oncology, British Columbia Cancer Agency, Vancouver, BC, Canada
| | - John K Field
- Molecular & Clinical Cancer Medicine, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK
| | - Geoffrey Liu
- Computational Biology and Medicine Program, Princess Margaret Cancer Center, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Javier J Zulueta
- Division of Pulmonary, Critical Care and Sleep Medicine, Mount Sinai Morningside Hospital, Icahn School of Medicine, New York, NY, USA
| | - Karmele Valencia
- Center of Applied Medical Research (CIMA) and Schools of Sciences and Medicine, University of Navarra, Pamplona, Spain
- Navarra Institute for Health Research (IdiSNA), Pamplona, Spain
- Centro de Investigacion Biomedica en Red de Cancer (CIBERONC), Madrid, Spain
| | - Miguel Mesa-Guzman
- Thoracic Surgery Department, Clínica Universidad de Navarra, Pamplona, Spain
| | - Andrea Pasquier Nialet
- Center of Applied Medical Research (CIMA) and Schools of Sciences and Medicine, University of Navarra, Pamplona, Spain
- Navarra Institute for Health Research (IdiSNA), Pamplona, Spain
- Centro de Investigacion Biomedica en Red de Cancer (CIBERONC), Madrid, Spain
| | | | - Michael P A Davies
- Molecular & Clinical Cancer Medicine, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK
| | - Benjamin Grant
- Computational Biology and Medicine Program, Princess Margaret Cancer Center, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Kiera Murison
- Prosserman Centre for Population Health Research, Lunenfeld-Tanenbaum Research Institute, Sinai Health, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Luis M Montuenga
- Center of Applied Medical Research (CIMA) and Schools of Sciences and Medicine, University of Navarra, Pamplona, Spain
- Navarra Institute for Health Research (IdiSNA), Pamplona, Spain
- Centro de Investigacion Biomedica en Red de Cancer (CIBERONC), Madrid, Spain
| | - Christopher I Amos
- Institute for Clinical and Translational Research, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX, USA
| | - Hilary A Robbins
- Genomic Epidemiology Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Mattias Johansson
- Genomic Epidemiology Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Rayjean J Hung
- Prosserman Centre for Population Health Research, Lunenfeld-Tanenbaum Research Institute, Sinai Health, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
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12
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Landy R, Gomez I, Caverly TJ, Kawamoto K, Rivera MP, Robbins HA, Young CD, Chaturvedi AK, Cheung LC, Katki HA. Methods for Using Race and Ethnicity in Prediction Models for Lung Cancer Screening Eligibility. JAMA Netw Open 2023; 6:e2331155. [PMID: 37721755 PMCID: PMC10507484 DOI: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2023.31155] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/10/2023] [Accepted: 07/20/2023] [Indexed: 09/19/2023] Open
Abstract
Importance Using race and ethnicity in clinical prediction models can reduce or inadvertently increase racial and ethnic disparities in medical decisions. Objective To compare eligibility for lung cancer screening in a contemporary representative US population by refitting the life-years gained from screening-computed tomography (LYFS-CT) model to exclude race and ethnicity vs a counterfactual eligibility approach that recalculates life expectancy for racial and ethnic minority individuals using the same covariates but substitutes White race and uses the higher predicted life expectancy, ensuring that historically underserved groups are not penalized. Design, Setting, and Participants The 2 submodels composing LYFS-CT NoRace were refit and externally validated without race and ethnicity: the lung cancer death submodel in participants of a large clinical trial (recruited 1993-2001; followed up until December 31, 2009) who ever smoked (n = 39 180) and the all-cause mortality submodel in the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) 1997-2001 participants aged 40 to 80 years who ever smoked (n = 74 842, followed up until December 31, 2006). Screening eligibility was examined in NHIS 2015-2018 participants aged 50 to 80 years who ever smoked. Data were analyzed from June 2021 to September 2022. Exposure Including and removing race and ethnicity (African American, Asian American, Hispanic American, White) in each LYFS-CT submodel. Main Outcomes and Measures By race and ethnicity: calibration of the LYFS-CT NoRace model and the counterfactual approach (ratio of expected to observed [E/O] outcomes), US individuals eligible for screening, predicted days of life gained from screening by LYFS-CT. Results The NHIS 2015-2018 included 25 601 individuals aged 50 to 80 years who ever smoked (2769 African American, 649 Asian American, 1855 Hispanic American, and 20 328 White individuals). Removing race and ethnicity from the submodels underestimated lung cancer death risk (expected/observed [E/O], 0.72; 95% CI, 0.52-1.00) and all-cause mortality (E/O, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.86-0.94) in African American individuals. It also overestimated mortality in Hispanic American (E/O, 1.08, 95% CI, 1.00-1.16) and Asian American individuals (E/O, 1.14, 95% CI, 1.01-1.30). Consequently, the LYFS-CT NoRace model increased Hispanic American and Asian American eligibility by 108% and 73%, respectively, while reducing African American eligibility by 39%. Using LYFS-CT with the counterfactual all-cause mortality model better maintained calibration across groups and increased African American eligibility by 13% without reducing eligibility for Hispanic American and Asian American individuals. Conclusions and Relevance In this study, removing race and ethnicity miscalibrated LYFS-CT submodels and substantially reduced African American eligibility for lung cancer screening. Under counterfactual eligibility, no one became ineligible, and African American eligibility increased, demonstrating the potential for maintaining model accuracy while reducing disparities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rebecca Landy
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Department of Health and Human Services, Bethesda, Maryland
| | - Isabel Gomez
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Department of Health and Human Services, Bethesda, Maryland
- Biostatistics Department, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor
| | - Tanner J. Caverly
- Department of Learning Health Sciences, University of Michigan Medical School, Ann Arbor
| | - Kensaku Kawamoto
- Department of Biomedical Informatics, University of Utah, Salt Lake City
| | - M. Patricia Rivera
- Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine and Wilmot Cancer Institute, University of Rochester, Rochester, New York
| | - Hilary A. Robbins
- Genomic Epidemiology Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Corey D. Young
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Department of Health and Human Services, Bethesda, Maryland
- Department of Microbiology, Biochemistry and Immunology, Morehouse School of Medicine, Atlanta, Georgia
| | - Anil K. Chaturvedi
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Department of Health and Human Services, Bethesda, Maryland
| | - Li C. Cheung
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Department of Health and Human Services, Bethesda, Maryland
| | - Hormuzd A. Katki
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Department of Health and Human Services, Bethesda, Maryland
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DSouza G, Tewari SR, Troy T, Waterboer T, Struijk L, Castillo R, Wright H, Shen M, Miles B, Johansson M, Robbins HA, Fakhry C. Prevalence of oral and blood oncogenic human papillomavirus biomarkers among an enriched screening population: Baseline results of the MOUTH study. Cancer 2023; 129:2373-2384. [PMID: 37032449 PMCID: PMC10330354 DOI: 10.1002/cncr.34783] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/28/2022] [Revised: 03/02/2023] [Accepted: 03/07/2023] [Indexed: 04/11/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Human papillomavirus (HPV)-related oropharyngeal cancer screening is being explored in research studies, but strategies to identify an appropriate population are not established. The authors evaluated whether a screening population could be enriched for participants with oncogenic HPV biomarkers using risk factors for oral HPV. METHODS Participants were enrolled at Johns Hopkins Hospitals and Mount Sinai Icahn School of Medicine. Eligible participants were either men aged 30 years or older who had two or more lifetime oral sex partners and a personal history of anogenital dysplasia/cancer or partners of patients who had HPV-related cancer. Oral rinse and serum samples were tested for oncogenic HPV DNA, RNA, and E6 or E7 antibodies, respectively. Participants with any biomarker were considered at-risk. RESULTS Of 1108 individuals, 7.3% had any oncogenic oral HPV DNA, and 22.9% had serum antibodies for oncogenic HPV E6 or E7. Seventeen participants (1.5%) had both oral and blood biomarkers. HPV type 16 (HPV16) biomarkers were rarer, detected in 3.7% of participants, including 20 with oral HPV16 DNA and 22 with HPV16 E6 serum antibodies (n = 1 had both). In adjusted analysis, living with HIV (adjusted odds ratio, 2.65; 95% CI, 1.60-4.40) and older age (66-86 vs. 24-45 years; adjusted odds ratio, 1.70; 95% CI, 1.07-2.70) were significant predictors of being at risk. Compared with the general population, the prevalence of oral HPV16 (1.8% vs. 0.9%), any oncogenic oral HPV DNA (7.3% vs. 3.5%), and HPV16 E6 antibodies (2.2% vs. 0.3%) was significantly elevated. CONCLUSIONS Enrichment by the eligibility criteria successfully identified a population with higher biomarker prevalence, including HPV16 biomarkers, that may be considered for screening trials. Most in this group are still expected to have a low risk of oropharyngeal cancer.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gypsyamber DSouza
- Departments of Epidemiology & Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery, Johns Hopkins, Baltimore, Maryland
| | - Sakshi R Tewari
- Departments of Epidemiology & Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery, Johns Hopkins, Baltimore, Maryland
| | - Tanya Troy
- Departments of Epidemiology & Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery, Johns Hopkins, Baltimore, Maryland
| | - Tim Waterboer
- Division of Infections and Cancer Epidemiology, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Linda Struijk
- Viroclinics-DDL Diagnostic Laboratory, Rijswijk, Netherlands
| | - Rachel Castillo
- Departments of Epidemiology & Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery, Johns Hopkins, Baltimore, Maryland
| | - Hannah Wright
- Departments of Epidemiology & Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery, Johns Hopkins, Baltimore, Maryland
| | - Michael Shen
- Departments of Epidemiology & Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery, Johns Hopkins, Baltimore, Maryland
| | - Brett Miles
- Department of Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery, Northwell Health, New York, NY
| | - Mattias Johansson
- Genomic Epidemiology Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Hilary A Robbins
- Genomic Epidemiology Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Carole Fakhry
- Departments of Epidemiology & Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery, Johns Hopkins, Baltimore, Maryland
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Albanes D, Alcala K, Alcala N, Amos CI, Arslan AA, Bassett JK, Brennan P, Cai Q, Chen C, Feng X, Freedman ND, Guida F, Hung RJ, Hveem K, Johansson M, Johansson M, Koh WP, Langhammer A, Milne RL, Muller D, Onwuka J, Sørgjerd EP, Robbins HA, Sesso HD, Severi G, Shu XO, Sieri S, Smith-Byrne K, Stevens V, Tinker L, Tjønneland A, Visvanathan K, Wang Y, Wang R, Weinstein S, Yuan JM, Zahed H, Zhang X, Zheng W. The blood proteome of imminent lung cancer diagnosis. Nat Commun 2023; 14:3042. [PMID: 37264016 PMCID: PMC10235023 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-37979-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/16/2022] [Accepted: 04/05/2023] [Indexed: 06/03/2023] Open
Abstract
Identification of risk biomarkers may enhance early detection of smoking-related lung cancer. We measured between 392 and 1,162 proteins in blood samples drawn at most three years before diagnosis in 731 smoking-matched case-control sets nested within six prospective cohorts from the US, Europe, Singapore, and Australia. We identify 36 proteins with independently reproducible associations with risk of imminent lung cancer diagnosis (all p < 4 × 10-5). These include a few markers (e.g. CA-125/MUC-16 and CEACAM5/CEA) that have previously been reported in studies using pre-diagnostic blood samples for lung cancer. The 36 proteins include several growth factors (e.g. HGF, IGFBP-1, IGFP-2), tumor necrosis factor-receptors (e.g. TNFRSF6B, TNFRSF13B), and chemokines and cytokines (e.g. CXL17, GDF-15, SCF). The odds ratio per standard deviation range from 1.31 for IGFBP-1 (95% CI: 1.17-1.47) to 2.43 for CEACAM5 (95% CI: 2.04-2.89). We map the 36 proteins to the hallmarks of cancer and find that activation of invasion and metastasis, proliferative signaling, tumor-promoting inflammation, and angiogenesis are most frequently implicated.
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Feng X, Muller DC, Zahed H, Alcala K, Guida F, Smith-Byrne K, Yuan JM, Koh WP, Wang R, Milne RL, Bassett JK, Langhammer A, Hveem K, Stevens VL, Wang Y, Johansson M, Tjønneland A, Tumino R, Sheikh M, Johansson M, Robbins HA. Evaluation of pre-diagnostic blood protein measurements for predicting survival after lung cancer diagnosis. EBioMedicine 2023; 92:104623. [PMID: 37236058 PMCID: PMC10232655 DOI: 10.1016/j.ebiom.2023.104623] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/21/2022] [Revised: 05/05/2023] [Accepted: 05/07/2023] [Indexed: 05/28/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND To evaluate whether circulating proteins are associated with survival after lung cancer diagnosis, and whether they can improve prediction of prognosis. METHODS We measured up to 1159 proteins in blood samples from 708 participants in 6 cohorts. Samples were collected within 3 years prior to lung cancer diagnosis. We used Cox proportional hazards models to identify proteins associated with overall mortality after lung cancer diagnosis. To evaluate model performance, we used a round-robin approach in which models were fit in 5 cohorts and evaluated in the 6th cohort. Specifically, we fit a model including 5 proteins and clinical parameters and compared its performance with clinical parameters only. FINDINGS There were 86 proteins nominally associated with mortality (p < 0.05), but only CDCP1 remained statistically significant after accounting for multiple testing (hazard ratio per standard deviation: 1.19, 95% CI: 1.10-1.30, unadjusted p = 0.00004). The external C-index for the protein-based model was 0.63 (95% CI: 0.61-0.66), compared with 0.62 (95% CI: 0.59-0.64) for the model with clinical parameters only. Inclusion of proteins did not provide a statistically significant improvement in discrimination (C-index difference: 0.015, 95% CI: -0.003 to 0.035). INTERPRETATION Blood proteins measured within 3 years prior to lung cancer diagnosis were not strongly associated with lung cancer survival, nor did they importantly improve prediction of prognosis beyond clinical information. FUNDING No explicit funding for this study. Authors and data collection supported by the US National Cancer Institute (U19CA203654), INCA (France, 2019-1-TABAC-01), Cancer Research Foundation of Northern Sweden (AMP19-962), and Swedish Department of Health Ministry.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xiaoshuang Feng
- Genomic Epidemiology Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France.
| | - David C Muller
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, MRC-PHE, Centre for Environment and Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Hana Zahed
- Genomic Epidemiology Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Karine Alcala
- Genomic Epidemiology Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Florence Guida
- Environment and Lifestyle Epidemiology Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Karl Smith-Byrne
- Cancer Epidemiology Unit, Oxford Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Jian-Min Yuan
- UPMC Hillman Cancer Centre, Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Department of Epidemiology, Graduate School of Public Health, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA, USA
| | - Woon-Puay Koh
- Healthy Longevity Translational Research Program, Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore; Singapore Institute for Clinical Sciences, Agency for Science Technology and Research (A∗STAR), Singapore
| | - Renwei Wang
- UPMC Hillman Cancer Centre, Pittsburgh, PA, USA
| | - Roger L Milne
- Cancer Epidemiology Division, Cancer Council Victoria, Melbourne, Australia; Centre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Australia; School of Clinical Sciences at Monash Health, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Julie K Bassett
- Cancer Epidemiology Division, Cancer Council Victoria, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Arnulf Langhammer
- HUNT Research Center, Department of Public Health and Nursing, NTNU Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Levanger, Norway; Levanger Hospital, Nord-Trøndelag Hospital Trust, Levanger, Norway
| | - Kristian Hveem
- HUNT Research Center, Department of Public Health and Nursing, NTNU Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Levanger, Norway; Department of Public Health and Nursing, K.G. Jebsen Centre for Genetic Epidemiology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway
| | | | - Ying Wang
- American Cancer Society, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Mikael Johansson
- Department of Radiation Sciences, Oncology, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
| | - Anne Tjønneland
- Danish Cancer Society Research Center, Copenhagen, Denmark; Department of Public Health, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Rosario Tumino
- Hyblean Association for Epidemiological Research, AIRE ONLUS Ragusa, Italy
| | - Mahdi Sheikh
- Genomic Epidemiology Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Mattias Johansson
- Genomic Epidemiology Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Hilary A Robbins
- Genomic Epidemiology Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France.
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Sheikh M, Mukeriya A, Zahed H, Feng X, Robbins HA, Shangina O, Matveev V, Brennan P, Zaridze D. Smoking Cessation After Diagnosis of Kidney Cancer Is Associated With Reduced Risk of Mortality and Cancer Progression: A Prospective Cohort Study. J Clin Oncol 2023; 41:2747-2755. [PMID: 36989465 PMCID: PMC10414692 DOI: 10.1200/jco.22.02472] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/04/2022] [Revised: 02/03/2023] [Accepted: 02/27/2023] [Indexed: 03/31/2023] Open
Abstract
PURPOSE To investigate whether postdiagnosis smoking cessation may affect the risk of death and disease progression in patients with renal cell carcinoma (RCC) who smoked at the time of diagnosis. METHODS Two hundred twelve patients with primary RCC were recruited between 2007 and 2016 from the Urological Department in N.N. Blokhin National Medical Research Center of Oncology, Moscow, Russia. Upon enrollment, a structured questionnaire was completed, and the patients were followed annually through 2020 to repeatedly assess their smoking status and disease progression. Survival probabilities and hazards for all-cause and cancer-specific mortality and disease progression were investigated using extended the Kaplan-Meier method, time-dependent Cox proportional hazards regression, and Fine-Gray competing-risk models. RESULTS Patients were followed for a median of 8.2 years. During this time, 110 cases of disease progression, 100 total deaths, and 77 cancer-specific deaths were recorded. Eighty-four patients (40%) quit smoking after diagnosis. The total person-years at risk for this analysis were 748.2 for continuing smoking and 611.2 for quitting smoking periods. At 5 years of follow-up, both overall survival (85% v 61%) and progression-free survival (80% v 57%) rates were higher during the quitting than continuing smoking periods (both P < .001). In the multivariable time-dependent models, quitting smoking was associated with lower risk of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 0.51; 95% CI, 0.31 to 0.85), disease progression (HR, 0.45; 95% CI, 0.29 to 0.71), and cancer-specific mortality (HR, 0.54; 95% CI, 0.31 to 0.93). The beneficial effect of quitting smoking was evident across all subgroups, including light smokers versus moderate-heavy smokers and those with early-stage versus late-stage tumors. CONCLUSION Quitting smoking after RCC diagnosis may significantly improve survival and reduce the risk of disease progression and cancer mortality among patients who smoke.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mahdi Sheikh
- Genomic Epidemiology Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC/WHO), Lyon, France
| | - Anush Mukeriya
- Department of Epidemiology, N.N. Blokhin National Medical Research Centre of Oncology, Moscow, Russia
| | - Hana Zahed
- Genomic Epidemiology Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC/WHO), Lyon, France
| | - Xiaoshuang Feng
- Genomic Epidemiology Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC/WHO), Lyon, France
| | - Hilary A. Robbins
- Genomic Epidemiology Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC/WHO), Lyon, France
| | - Oxana Shangina
- Department of Epidemiology, N.N. Blokhin National Medical Research Centre of Oncology, Moscow, Russia
| | - Vsevolod Matveev
- Department of Urology, N.N. Blokhin National Medical Research Centre of Oncology, Moscow, Russia
| | - Paul Brennan
- Genomic Epidemiology Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC/WHO), Lyon, France
| | - David Zaridze
- Department of Epidemiology, N.N. Blokhin National Medical Research Centre of Oncology, Moscow, Russia
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Wu WYY, Haider Z, Feng X, Heath AK, Tjønneland A, Agudo A, Masala G, Robbins HA, Huerta MJ, Guevara M, Schulze MB, Rodriguez-Barranco M, Vineis P, Tumino R, Kaaks R, Fortner RT, Sieri S, Panico S, Nøst TH, Sandanger TM, Braaten T, Johansson M, Melin B, Johansson M. Assessment of the EarlyCDT-Lung test as an early biomarker of lung cancer in ever-smokers: A retrospective nested case-control study in two prospective cohorts. Int J Cancer 2023; 152:2002-2010. [PMID: 36305647 PMCID: PMC10157531 DOI: 10.1002/ijc.34340] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/28/2022] [Revised: 09/30/2022] [Accepted: 10/05/2022] [Indexed: 11/11/2022]
Abstract
The EarlyCDT-Lung test is a blood-based autoantibody assay intended to identify high-risk individuals for low-dose computed tomography lung cancer screening. However, there is a paucity of evidence on the performance of the EarlyCDT-Lung test in ever-smokers. We conducted a nested case-control study within two prospective cohorts to evaluate the risk-discriminatory performance of the EarlyCDT-Lung test using prediagnostic blood samples from 154 future lung cancer cases and 154 matched controls. Cases were selected from those who had ever smoked and had a prediagnostic blood sample <3 years prior to diagnosis. Conditional logistic regression was used to estimate the association between EarlyCDT-Lung test results and lung cancer risk. Sensitivity and specificity of the EarlyCDT-Lung test were calculated in all subjects and subgroups based on age, smoking history, lung cancer stage, sample collection time before diagnosis and year of sample collection. The overall lung cancer odds ratios were 0.89 (95% CI: 0.34-2.30) for a moderate risk EarlyCDT-Lung test result and 1.09 (95% CI: 0.48-2.47) for a high-risk test result compared to no significant test result. The overall sensitivity was 8.4% (95% CI: 4.6-14) and overall specificity was 92% (95% CI: 87-96) when considering a high-risk result as positive. Stratified analysis indicated higher sensitivity (17%, 95% CI: 7.2-32.1) in subjects with blood drawn up to 1 year prior to diagnosis. In conclusion, our study does not support a role of the EarlyCDT-Lung test in identifying the high-risk subjects in ever-smokers for lung cancer screening in the EPIC and NSHDS cohorts.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wendy Yi-Ying Wu
- Department of Radiation Sciences, Oncology, Umeå University, Sweden
| | - Zahra Haider
- Department of Radiation Sciences, Oncology, Umeå University, Sweden
| | - Xiaoshuang Feng
- Genomic Epidemiology Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Alicia K. Heath
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Anne Tjønneland
- Diet, Cancer and Health, Danish Cancer Society Research Center, Copenhagen, Denmark
- Department of Public Health, University of Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Antonio Agudo
- Unit of Nutrition and Cancer, Catalan Institute of Oncology - ICO, L’Hospitalet de Llobregat, Spain
- Nutrition and Cancer Group; Epidemiology, Public Health, Cancer Prevention and Palliative Care Program; Bellvitge Biomedical Research Institute - IDIBELL, L’Hospitalet de Llobregat, Spain
| | - Giovanna Masala
- Institute for cancer research, prevention and clinical network (ISPRO) Florence, Italy
| | - Hilary A. Robbins
- Genomic Epidemiology Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - María-José Huerta
- Department of Epidemiology, Murcia Regional Health Council, Murcia, Spain
- Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), 28029 Madrid, Spain
| | - Marcela Guevara
- Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), 28029 Madrid, Spain
- Navarra Public Health Institute, 31003 Pamplona, Spain
- Navarra Institute for Health Research (IdiSNA), 31008 Pamplona, Spain
| | - Matthias B. Schulze
- German Institute of Human Nutrition Potsdam-Rehbruecke, Nuthetal, Germany
- Institute of Nutritional Science, University of Potsdam, Nuthetal, Germany
| | - Miguel Rodriguez-Barranco
- Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), 28029 Madrid, Spain
- Escuela Andaluza de Salud Pública (EASP), 18011 Granada, Spain
- Instituto de Investigación Biosanitaria ibs.GRANADA, 18012 Granada, Spain
| | - Paolo Vineis
- MRC Centre for Environment and Health, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, UK
| | - Rosario Tumino
- Hyblean Association for Epidemiological Research, AIRE ONLUS Ragusa, Italy
| | - Rudolf Kaaks
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology, German Cancer Research Center (DFKZ), Heidelberg, Germany
- Translational Lung Research Center (TLRC) Heidelberg, Member of the German Center for Lung Research (DZL), Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Renée T. Fortner
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology, German Cancer Research Center (DFKZ), Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Sabina Sieri
- Epidemiology and Prevention Unit, Fondazione IRCCS Istituto Nazionale dei Tumori di Milano Via Venezian, Milan, Italy
| | - Salvatore Panico
- Dipartimento di Medicina Clinica e Chirurgia Federico II Universioty, Naples, Italy
| | - Therese Haugdahl Nøst
- Department of Community Medicine, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway
| | - Torkjel M. Sandanger
- Department of Community Medicine, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway
| | - Tonje Braaten
- Department of Community Medicine, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway
| | - Mattias Johansson
- Genomic Epidemiology Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Beatrice Melin
- Department of Radiation Sciences, Oncology, Umeå University, Sweden
| | - Mikael Johansson
- Department of Radiation Sciences, Oncology, Umeå University, Sweden
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Sheikh M, Virani S, Robbins HA, Foretova L, Holcatova I, Janout V, Lissowska J, Navratilova M, Mukeriya A, Ognjanovic M, Swiatkowska B, Zaridze D, Brennan P. Survival and prognostic factors of early-stage non-small cell lung cancer in Central and Eastern Europe: A prospective cohort study. Cancer Med 2023; 12:10563-10574. [PMID: 36952375 PMCID: PMC10225235 DOI: 10.1002/cam4.5791] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/10/2023] [Accepted: 02/28/2023] [Indexed: 03/24/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Although early diagnosis and surgical resection of the tumor have been shown to be the most important predictors of lung cancer survival, long-term survival for surgically-resected early-stage lung cancer remains poor. AIMS In this prospective study we aimed to investigate the survival and prognostic factors of surgically-resected early-stage non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) in Central and Eastern Europe. METHODS We recruited 2052 patients with stage I-IIIA NSCLC from 9 centers in Russia, Poland, Serbia, Czech Republic, and Romania, between 2007-2016 and followed them annually through 2020. RESULTS During follow-up, there were 1121 deaths (including 730 cancer-specific deaths). Median survival time was 4.9 years, and the 5-year overall survival was 49.5%. In the multivariable model, mortality was increased among older individuals (HR for each 10-year increase: 1.31 [95% CI: 1.21-1.42]), males (HR:1.24 [1.04-1.49]), participants with significant weight loss (HR:1.25 [1.03-1.52]), current smokers (HR:1.30 [1.04-1.62]), alcohol drinkers (HR:1.22 [1.03-1.44]), and those with higher stage tumors (HR stage IIIA vs. I: 5.54 [4.10 - 7.48]). However, education, chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases (COPD), and tumor histology were not associated with risk of death. All baseline indicators of smoking and alcohol drinking showed a dose-dependent association with the risk of cancer-specific mortality. This included pack-years of cigarettes smoked (p-trend = 0.04), quantity of smoking (p-trend = 0.008), years of smoking (p-trend = 0.010), gram-days of alcohol drank (p-trend = 0.002), frequency of drinking (p-trend = 0.006), and years of drinking (p-trend = 0.016). CONCLUSION This study shows that the 5-year survival rate of surgically-resected stage I-IIIA NSCLC is still around 50% in Central and Eastern Europe. In addition to non-modifiable prognostic factors, lifetime patterns of smoking and alcohol drinking affected the risk of death and disease progression in a dose-dependent manner in this population.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mahdi Sheikh
- Genomic Epidemiology BranchInternational Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC/WHO)LyonFrance
| | - Shama Virani
- Genomic Epidemiology BranchInternational Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC/WHO)LyonFrance
| | - Hilary A. Robbins
- Genomic Epidemiology BranchInternational Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC/WHO)LyonFrance
| | - Lenka Foretova
- Department of Cancer Epidemiology & GeneticsMasaryk Memorial Cancer InstituteBrnoCzech Republic
| | - Ivana Holcatova
- Department of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Second Faculty of MedicineCharles UniversityPragueCzech Republic
- Department of Oncology2nd Medical Faculty & University Hospital MotolPragueCzech Republic
| | | | - Jolanta Lissowska
- Department of Cancer Epidemiology and PreventionM. Sklodowska‐Curie National Research Institute of OncologyWarsawPoland
| | - Marie Navratilova
- Department of Cancer Epidemiology & GeneticsMasaryk Memorial Cancer InstituteBrnoCzech Republic
| | - Anush Mukeriya
- Department of Clinical EpidemiologyN.N. Blokhin National Medical Research Centre of OncologyMoscowRussia
| | - Miodrag Ognjanovic
- International Organization for Cancer Prevention and ResearchBelgradeSerbia
| | - Beata Swiatkowska
- Department of Environmental EpidemiologyNofer Institute of Occupational MedicinePoland
| | - David Zaridze
- Department of Clinical EpidemiologyN.N. Blokhin National Medical Research Centre of OncologyMoscowRussia
| | - Paul Brennan
- Genomic Epidemiology BranchInternational Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC/WHO)LyonFrance
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Onwuka JU, Zahed H, Feng X, Alcala K, Johansson M, Robbins HA, Consortium LCC. Abstract 1950: Socioeconomic status and lung cancer incidence: An analysis of data from 15 countries in the Lung Cancer Cohort Consortium. Cancer Res 2023. [DOI: 10.1158/1538-7445.am2023-1950] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 04/07/2023]
Abstract
Abstract
Background: Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer death worldwide. We explored the relationship between socioeconomic status and lung cancer incidence across world regions, using educational level as a proxy for socioeconomic status.
Methods: We analyzed the harmonized database of the Lung Cancer Cohort Consortium (LC3). The current study included data from 18 prospective cohorts from 15 countries in the US, Europe, Asia, and Australia. Separately for participants who never or currently/formerly smoked, we estimated the association between educational level and incident lung cancer using Cox proportional hazards models. Information on education was harmonized using the International Standard Classification of Education and then modeled as an ordinal variable in 4 categories. Models were adjusted for age, sex, and for participants who currently/formerly smoked, smoking duration, cigarettes per day, and time since cessation.
Results: Among 2.6 million participants from 15 countries, 62,645 developed lung cancer during follow-up (median follow-up = 12.6 years). Among current/former smokers, increased educational level was associated with decreased lung cancer incidence in most cohorts after adjustment for age, sex, and detailed smoking information, with HRs ranging from 0.77 (95%CI: 0.42-1.41) per 1-unit increase in educational level in the Iranian Golestan Cohort Study to 1.02 (95%CI: 0.95-1.09) in the Australian Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study. When grouping by world region, the association between education and lung cancer incidence among currently/formerly smoking participants was similar for the US (HRpooled=0.88, 95%CI: 0.87-0.89), Europe (HRpooled=0.89, 95%CI: 0.88-0.91), and Asia (HRpooled=0.91, 95%CI: 0.86-0.96), but attenuated in the Australian cohort (HR=1.02, 95%CI: 0.95-1.09). Among never smokers, after adjustment for age and sex, there was no statistically significant association between educational level and lung cancer incidence (p-trend>0.05 in all cohorts), with the exception of the US Southern Community Cohort Study, which comprises primarily African-Americans and showed a HR of 0.75 (95%CI: 0.62-0.90).
Conclusion: Among currently and formerly smoking individuals, higher educational level showed a strikingly consistent decreased risk of incident lung cancer across cohorts from 4 continents, after detailed adjustment for smoking. In contrast, among people who never smoked, there was no association between education and lung cancer incidence in any cohort, with the exception of the Southern Community Cohort Study. Further research is needed to clarify the mechanisms, either related or unrelated to smoking, that contribute to the association between education and lung cancer risk.
Citation Format: Justina U. Onwuka, Hana Zahed, Xiaoshuang Feng, Karine Alcala, Mattias Johansson, Hilary A. Robbins, Lung Cancer Cohort Consortium. Socioeconomic status and lung cancer incidence: An analysis of data from 15 countries in the Lung Cancer Cohort Consortium [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2023; Part 1 (Regular and Invited Abstracts); 2023 Apr 14-19; Orlando, FL. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2023;83(7_Suppl):Abstract nr 1950.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Hana Zahed
- 1International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | | | - Karine Alcala
- 1International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
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Sheikh M, Brennan P, Mariosa D, Robbins HA. Opioid medications: an emerging cancer risk factor? Br J Anaesth 2023; 130:e401-e403. [PMID: 36682937 DOI: 10.1016/j.bja.2022.12.007] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/11/2022] [Revised: 12/09/2022] [Accepted: 12/12/2022] [Indexed: 01/21/2023] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Mahdi Sheikh
- Genomic Epidemiology Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC/WHO), Lyon, France.
| | - Paul Brennan
- Genomic Epidemiology Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC/WHO), Lyon, France
| | - Daniela Mariosa
- Genomic Epidemiology Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC/WHO), Lyon, France
| | - Hilary A Robbins
- Genomic Epidemiology Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC/WHO), Lyon, France
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Landy R, Wang VL, Baldwin DR, Pinsky PF, Cheung LC, Castle PE, Skarzynski M, Robbins HA, Katki HA. Recalibration of a Deep Learning Model for Low-Dose Computed Tomographic Images to Inform Lung Cancer Screening Intervals. JAMA Netw Open 2023; 6:e233273. [PMID: 36929398 PMCID: PMC10020880 DOI: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2023.3273] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/04/2022] [Accepted: 01/31/2023] [Indexed: 03/18/2023] Open
Abstract
Importance Annual low-dose computed tomographic (LDCT) screening reduces lung cancer mortality, but harms could be reduced and cost-effectiveness improved by reusing the LDCT image in conjunction with deep learning or statistical models to identify low-risk individuals for biennial screening. Objective To identify low-risk individuals in the National Lung Screening Trial (NLST) and estimate, had they been assigned a biennial screening, how many lung cancers would have been delayed 1 year in diagnosis. Design, Setting, and Participants This diagnostic study included participants with a presumed nonmalignant lung nodule in the NLST between January 1, 2002, and December 31, 2004, with follow-up completed on December 31, 2009. Data were analyzed for this study from September 11, 2019, to March 15, 2022. Exposures An externally validated deep learning algorithm that predicts malignancy in current lung nodules using LDCT images (Lung Cancer Prediction Convolutional Neural Network [LCP-CNN]; Optellum Ltd) was recalibrated to predict 1-year lung cancer detection by LDCT for presumed nonmalignant nodules. Individuals with presumed nonmalignant lung nodules were hypothetically assigned annual vs biennial screening based on the recalibrated LCP-CNN model, Lung Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (LCRAT + CT [a statistical model combining individual risk factors and LDCT image features]), and the American College of Radiology recommendations for lung nodules, version 1.1 (Lung-RADS). Main Outcomes and Measures Primary outcomes included model prediction performance, the absolute risk of a 1-year delay in cancer diagnosis, and the proportion of people without lung cancer assigned a biennial screening interval vs the proportion of cancer diagnoses delayed. Results The study included 10 831 LDCT images from patients with presumed nonmalignant lung nodules (58.7% men; mean [SD] age, 61.9 [5.0] years), of whom 195 were diagnosed with lung cancer from the subsequent screen. The recalibrated LCP-CNN had substantially higher area under the curve (0.87) than LCRAT + CT (0.79) or Lung-RADS (0.69) to predict 1-year lung cancer risk (P < .001). If 66% of screens with nodules were assigned to biennial screening, the absolute risk of a 1-year delay in cancer diagnosis would have been lower for recalibrated LCP-CNN (0.28%) than LCRAT + CT (0.60%; P = .001) or Lung-RADS (0.97%; P < .001). To delay only 10% of cancer diagnoses at 1 year, more people would have been safely assigned biennial screening under LCP-CNN than LCRAT + CT (66.4% vs 40.3%; P < .001). Conclusions and Relevance In this diagnostic study evaluating models of lung cancer risk, a recalibrated deep learning algorithm was most predictive of 1-year lung cancer risk and had least risk of 1-year delay in cancer diagnosis among people assigned biennial screening. Deep learning algorithms could prioritize people for workup of suspicious nodules and decrease screening intensity for people with low-risk nodules, which may be vital for implementation in health care systems.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rebecca Landy
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Department of Health and Human Services, Bethesda, Maryland
| | - Vivian L. Wang
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Department of Health and Human Services, Bethesda, Maryland
| | - David R. Baldwin
- School of Medicine, Nottingham University Hospitals and the University of Nottingham, Nottingham, United Kingdom
| | - Paul F. Pinsky
- Division of Cancer Prevention, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Department of Health and Human Services, Bethesda, Maryland
| | - Li C. Cheung
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Department of Health and Human Services, Bethesda, Maryland
| | - Philip E. Castle
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Department of Health and Human Services, Bethesda, Maryland
- Division of Cancer Prevention, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Department of Health and Human Services, Bethesda, Maryland
| | - Martin Skarzynski
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Department of Health and Human Services, Bethesda, Maryland
| | - Hilary A. Robbins
- Genomic Epidemiology Group, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Hormuzd A. Katki
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Department of Health and Human Services, Bethesda, Maryland
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22
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Midttun Ø, Ulvik A, Meyer K, Zahed H, Giles GG, Manjer J, Sandsveden M, Langhammer A, Sørgjerd EP, Behndig AF, Johansson M, Freedman ND, Huang WY, Chen C, Prentice R, Stevens VL, Wang Y, Le Marchand L, Weinstein SJ, Cai Q, Arslan AA, Chen Y, Shu XO, Zheng W, Yuan JM, Koh WP, Visvanathan K, Sesso HD, Zhang X, Gaziano JM, Fanidi A, Robbins HA, Brennan P, Johansson M, Ueland PM. A cross-sectional study of inflammatory markers as determinants of circulating kynurenines in the Lung Cancer Cohort Consortium. Sci Rep 2023; 13:1011. [PMID: 36653422 PMCID: PMC9849351 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-28135-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/10/2022] [Accepted: 01/13/2023] [Indexed: 01/19/2023] Open
Abstract
Circulating concentrations of metabolites (collectively called kynurenines) in the kynurenine pathway of tryptophan metabolism increase during inflammation, particularly in response to interferon-gamma (IFN-γ). Neopterin and the kynurenine/tryptophan ratio (KTR) are IFN-γ induced inflammatory markers, and together with C-reactive protein (CRP) and kynurenines they are associated with various diseases, but comprehensive data on the strength of associations of inflammatory markers with circulating concentrations of kynurenines are lacking. We measured circulating concentrations of neopterin, CRP, tryptophan and seven kynurenines in 5314 controls from 20 cohorts in the Lung Cancer Cohort Consortium (LC3). The associations of neopterin, KTR and CRP with kynurenines were investigated using regression models. In mixed models, one standard deviation (SD) higher KTR was associated with a 0.46 SD higher quinolinic acid (QA), and 0.31 SD higher 3-hydroxykynurenine (HK). One SD higher neopterin was associated with 0.48, 0.44, 0.36 and 0.28 SD higher KTR, QA, kynurenine and HK, respectively. KTR and neopterin respectively explained 24.1% and 16.7% of the variation in QA, and 11.4% and 7.5% of HK. CRP was only weakly associated with kynurenines in regression models. In summary, QA was the metabolite that was most strongly associated with the inflammatory markers. In general, the inflammatory markers were most strongly related to metabolites located along the tryptophan-NAD axis, which may support suggestions of increased production of NAD from tryptophan during inflammation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Øivind Midttun
- Bevital AS, Laboratory Building, Jonas Lies Veg 87, 5021, Bergen, Norway.
| | - Arve Ulvik
- Bevital AS, Laboratory Building, Jonas Lies Veg 87, 5021, Bergen, Norway
| | - Klaus Meyer
- Bevital AS, Laboratory Building, Jonas Lies Veg 87, 5021, Bergen, Norway
| | - Hana Zahed
- Genomic Epidemiology Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Graham G Giles
- Cancer Epidemiology Division, Cancer Council Victoria, Melbourne, Australia
- Centre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia
- Precision Medicine, School of Clinical Sciences at Monash Health, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Jonas Manjer
- Department of Surgery, Skane University Hospital, Malmö, Sweden
- Lund University, Malmö, Sweden
| | - Malte Sandsveden
- Department of Clinical Sciences Malmo, Lund University, Malmö, Sweden
| | - Arnulf Langhammer
- Department of Public Health and Nursing, Hunt Research Centre, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Levanger, Norway
- Levanger Hospital, Nord-Trøndelag Hospital Trust, Levanger, Norway
| | - Elin Pettersen Sørgjerd
- Department of Public Health and Nursing, Hunt Research Centre, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Levanger, Norway
- Department of Endocrinology, St. Olavs Hospital, Trondheim University Hospital, Levanger, Norway
| | - Annelie F Behndig
- Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umea University, Umeå, Sweden
| | - Mikael Johansson
- Department of Radiation Sciences, Oncology, Umea University, Umeå, Sweden
| | - Neal D Freedman
- Metabolic Epidemiology Branch, Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Wen-Yi Huang
- Metabolic Epidemiology Branch, Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Chu Chen
- Public Health Sciences Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, USA
| | - Ross Prentice
- Public Health Sciences Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, USA
| | | | - Ying Wang
- American Cancer Society, Atlanta, USA
| | - Loïc Le Marchand
- University of Hawai'i Cancer Center, University of Hawai'i at Mānoa, Honolulu, USA
| | - Stephanie J Weinstein
- Metabolic Epidemiology Branch, Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Qiuyin Cai
- Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, USA
| | - Alan A Arslan
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, NYU Langone Health, New York, NY, USA
- Department of Population Health, NYU Langone Health, New York, NY, USA
- Perlmutter Comprehensive Cancer Center, NYU Langone Health, New York, NY, USA
| | - Yu Chen
- Department of Population Health, NYU Langone Health, New York, NY, USA
- Perlmutter Comprehensive Cancer Center, NYU Langone Health, New York, NY, USA
| | - Xiao-Ou Shu
- Department of Population Health, NYU Langone Health, New York, NY, USA
| | - Wei Zheng
- Department of Population Health, NYU Langone Health, New York, NY, USA
| | - Jian-Min Yuan
- University of Pittsburgh and UPMC Hillman Cancer Center, Pittsburgh, USA
| | - Woon-Puay Koh
- Healthy Longevity Translational Research Programme, Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Kala Visvanathan
- Johns Hopkins Institute for Clinical and Translational Research, Baltimore, USA
| | - Howard D Sesso
- Brigham and Women's Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, USA
- Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, USA
| | - Xuehong Zhang
- Brigham and Women's Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, USA
- Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, USA
| | - J Michael Gaziano
- Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, USA
- VA Boston Healthcare System, Boston, MA, USA
| | | | - Hilary A Robbins
- Genomic Epidemiology Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Paul Brennan
- Genomic Epidemiology Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Mattias Johansson
- Genomic Epidemiology Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Per M Ueland
- Bevital AS, Laboratory Building, Jonas Lies Veg 87, 5021, Bergen, Norway
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23
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Robbins HA, Alcala K, Moez EK, Guida F, Thomas S, Zahed H, Warkentin MT, Smith-Byrne K, Brhane Y, Muller D, Feng X, Albanes D, Aldrich MC, Arslan AA, Bassett J, Berg CD, Cai Q, Chen C, Davies MPA, Diergaarde B, Field JK, Freedman ND, Huang WY, Johansson M, Jones M, Koh WP, Lam S, Lan Q, Langhammer A, Liao LM, Liu G, Malekzadeh R, Milne RL, Montuenga LM, Rohan T, Sesso HD, Severi G, Sheikh M, Sinha R, Shu XO, Stevens VL, Tammemägi MC, Tinker LF, Visvanathan K, Wang Y, Wang R, Weinstein SJ, White E, Wilson D, Yuan JM, Zhang X, Zheng W, Amos CI, Brennan P, Johansson M, Hung RJ. Design and methodological considerations for biomarker discovery and validation in the Integrative Analysis of Lung Cancer Etiology and Risk (INTEGRAL) Program. Ann Epidemiol 2023; 77:1-12. [PMID: 36404465 PMCID: PMC9835888 DOI: 10.1016/j.annepidem.2022.10.014] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/14/2022] [Revised: 10/23/2022] [Accepted: 10/24/2022] [Indexed: 01/21/2023]
Abstract
The Integrative Analysis of Lung Cancer Etiology and Risk (INTEGRAL) program is an NCI-funded initiative with an objective to develop tools to optimize low-dose CT (LDCT) lung cancer screening. Here, we describe the rationale and design for the Risk Biomarker and Nodule Malignancy projects within INTEGRAL. The overarching goal of these projects is to systematically investigate circulating protein markers to include on a panel for use (i) pre-LDCT, to identify people likely to benefit from screening, and (ii) post-LDCT, to differentiate benign versus malignant nodules. To identify informative proteins, the Risk Biomarker project measured 1161 proteins in a nested-case control study within 2 prospective cohorts (n = 252 lung cancer cases and 252 controls) and replicated associations for a subset of proteins in 4 cohorts (n = 479 cases and 479 controls). Eligible participants had a current or former history of smoking and cases were diagnosed up to 3 years following blood draw. The Nodule Malignancy project measured 1078 proteins among participants with a heavy smoking history within four LDCT screening studies (n = 425 cases diagnosed up to 5 years following blood draw, 430 benign-nodule controls, and 398 nodule-free controls). The INTEGRAL panel will enable absolute quantification of 21 proteins. We will evaluate its performance in the Risk Biomarker project using a case-cohort study including 14 cohorts (n = 1696 cases and 2926 subcohort representatives), and in the Nodule Malignancy project within five LDCT screening studies (n = 675 cases, 680 benign-nodule controls, and 648 nodule-free controls). Future progress to advance lung cancer early detection biomarkers will require carefully designed validation, translational, and comparative studies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hilary A Robbins
- Genomic Epidemiology Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France.
| | - Karine Alcala
- Genomic Epidemiology Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Elham Khodayari Moez
- Prosserman Centre for Population Health Research, Lunenfeld-Tanenbaum Research Institute, Sinai Health, Toronto, Canada
| | - Florence Guida
- Environment and Lifestyle Epidemiology Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Sera Thomas
- Prosserman Centre for Population Health Research, Lunenfeld-Tanenbaum Research Institute, Sinai Health, Toronto, Canada
| | - Hana Zahed
- Genomic Epidemiology Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Matthew T Warkentin
- Prosserman Centre for Population Health Research, Lunenfeld-Tanenbaum Research Institute, Sinai Health, Toronto, Canada; Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada
| | | | - Yonathan Brhane
- Prosserman Centre for Population Health Research, Lunenfeld-Tanenbaum Research Institute, Sinai Health, Toronto, Canada
| | - David Muller
- Division of Genetic Medicine, Imperial College London School of Public Health, London, UK
| | - Xiaoshuang Feng
- Genomic Epidemiology Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Demetrius Albanes
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Rockville, MD
| | - Melinda C Aldrich
- Department of Medicine, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, TN
| | - Alan A Arslan
- Departments of Obstetrics and Gynecology and Population Health, New York University Grossman School of Medicine, New York, NY
| | - Julie Bassett
- Cancer Epidemiology Division, Cancer Council Victoria, Melbourne, Australia
| | | | - Qiuyin Cai
- Division of Epidemiology, Department of Medicine, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, TN
| | - Chu Chen
- Program in Epidemiology and the Women's Health Initiative Clinical Coordinating Center, Division of Public Health Sciences, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA
| | - Michael P A Davies
- Molecular & Clinical Cancer Medicine, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK
| | - Brenda Diergaarde
- Department of Human Genetics, Graduate School of Public Health, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA; UPMC Hillman Cancer Centre, Pittsburgh, PA
| | - John K Field
- Molecular & Clinical Cancer Medicine, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK
| | - Neal D Freedman
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Rockville, MD
| | - Wen-Yi Huang
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Rockville, MD
| | - Mikael Johansson
- Department of Radiation Sciences, Oncology, Umea University, Umea, Sweden
| | - Michael Jones
- Division of Genetics and Epidemiology, Institute of Cancer Research, London, UK
| | - Woon-Puay Koh
- Healthy Longevity Translational Research Program, Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore; Singapore Institute for Clinical Sciences, Agency for Science Technology and Research (A*STAR), Singapore, Singapore
| | - Stephen Lam
- Integrative Oncology, British Columbia Cancer Agency, Vancouver, Canada
| | - Qing Lan
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Rockville, MD
| | - Arnulf Langhammer
- HUNT Research Center, Department of Public Health and Nursing, NTNU Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Levanger, Norway; Levanger Hospital, Nord-Trøndelag Hospital Trust, Levanger, Norway
| | - Linda M Liao
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Rockville, MD
| | - Geoffrey Liu
- Computational Biology and Medicine Program, Princess Margaret Cancer Center, Toronto, Canada
| | - Reza Malekzadeh
- Digestive Disease Research Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Roger L Milne
- Cancer Epidemiology Division, Cancer Council Victoria, Melbourne, Australia; Centre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Australia; School of Clinical Sciences at Monash Health, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Luis M Montuenga
- Center of Applied Medical Research (CIMA) and Schools of Sciences and Medicine, University of Navarra, Pamplona, Spain; IDISNA, Pamplona, Spain; CIBERONC, Madrid, Spain
| | - Thomas Rohan
- Department of Epidemiology & Population Health, Albert Einstein College of Medicine, Bronx, NY
| | - Howard D Sesso
- Brigham and Women's Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA
| | | | - Mahdi Sheikh
- Genomic Epidemiology Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Rashmi Sinha
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Rockville, MD
| | - Xiao-Ou Shu
- Division of Epidemiology, Department of Medicine, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, TN
| | | | - Martin C Tammemägi
- Department of Health Sciences, Brock University, St. Cathaarines, ON, Canada; Prevention and Cancer Control, Ontario Health, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Lesley F Tinker
- Women's Health Initiative Clinical Coordinating Center, Division of Public Health Sciences, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA
| | - Kala Visvanathan
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD
| | - Ying Wang
- American Cancer Society, Atlanta, GA
| | - Renwei Wang
- UPMC Hillman Cancer Center, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA
| | - Stephanie J Weinstein
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Rockville, MD
| | - Emily White
- Cancer Prevention Research Program, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA
| | - David Wilson
- Division of Pulmonary, Allergy, and Critical Care Medicine, Department of Medicine, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA
| | - Jian-Min Yuan
- Department of Epidemiology, Graduate Schoolf of Public Health, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA; UPMC Hillman Cancer Centre, Pittsburgh, PA
| | - Xuehong Zhang
- Brigham and Women's Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA
| | - Wei Zheng
- Division of Epidemiology, Department of Medicine, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, TN
| | - Christopher I Amos
- Institute for Clinical and Translational Research, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX
| | - Paul Brennan
- Genomic Epidemiology Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Mattias Johansson
- Genomic Epidemiology Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France.
| | - Rayjean J Hung
- Prosserman Centre for Population Health Research, Lunenfeld-Tanenbaum Research Institute, Sinai Health, Toronto, Canada; Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada.
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Robbins HA, Ferreiro-Iglesias A, Waterboer T, Brenner N, Nygard M, Bender N, Schroeder L, Hildesheim A, Pawlita M, D'Souza G, Visvanathan K, Langseth H, Schlecht NF, Tinker LF, Agalliu I, Wassertheil-Smoller S, Ness-Jensen E, Hveem K, Grioni S, Kaaks R, Sánchez MJ, Weiderpass E, Giles GG, Milne RL, Cai Q, Blot WJ, Zheng W, Weinstein SJ, Albanes D, Huang WY, Freedman ND, Kreimer AR, Johansson M, Brennan P. Absolute Risk of Oropharyngeal Cancer After an HPV16-E6 Serology Test and Potential Implications for Screening: Results From the Human Papillomavirus Cancer Cohort Consortium. J Clin Oncol 2022; 40:3613-3622. [PMID: 35700419 PMCID: PMC9622695 DOI: 10.1200/jco.21.01785] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/21/2021] [Revised: 12/17/2021] [Accepted: 05/05/2022] [Indexed: 12/12/2022] Open
Abstract
PURPOSE Seropositivity for the HPV16-E6 oncoprotein is a promising marker for early detection of oropharyngeal cancer (OPC), but the absolute risk of OPC after a positive or negative test is unknown. METHODS We constructed an OPC risk prediction model that integrates (1) relative odds of OPC for HPV16-E6 serostatus and cigarette smoking from the human papillomavirus (HPV) Cancer Cohort Consortium (HPVC3), (2) US population risk factor data from the National Health Interview Survey, and (3) US sex-specific population rates of OPC and mortality. RESULTS The nine HPVC3 cohorts included 365 participants with OPC with up to 10 years between blood draw and diagnosis and 5,794 controls. The estimated 10-year OPC risk for HPV16-E6 seropositive males at age 50 years was 17.4% (95% CI, 12.4 to 28.6) and at age 60 years was 27.1% (95% CI, 19.2 to 45.4). Corresponding 5-year risk estimates were 7.3% and 14.4%, respectively. For HPV16-E6 seropositive females, 10-year risk estimates were 3.6% (95% CI, 2.5 to 5.9) at age 50 years and 5.5% (95% CI, 3.8 to 9.2) at age 60 years and 5-year risk estimates were 1.5% and 2.7%, respectively. Over 30 years, after a seropositive result at age 50 years, an estimated 49.9% of males and 13.3% of females would develop OPC. By contrast, 10-year risks among HPV16-E6 seronegative people were very low, ranging from 0.01% to 0.25% depending on age, sex, and smoking status. CONCLUSION We estimate that a substantial proportion of HPV16-E6 seropositive individuals will develop OPC, with 10-year risks of 17%-27% for males and 4%-6% for females age 50-60 years in the United States. This high level of risk may warrant periodic, minimally invasive surveillance after a positive HPV16-E6 serology test, particularly for males in high-incidence regions. However, an appropriate clinical protocol for surveillance remains to be established.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hilary A. Robbins
- Genomic Epidemiology Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | | | - Tim Waterboer
- Division of Infections and Cancer Epidemiology, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Nicole Brenner
- Division of Infections and Cancer Epidemiology, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Mari Nygard
- Department of Research, Cancer Registry of Norway, Institute of Population-Based Cancer Research, Oslo, Norway
| | - Noemi Bender
- Division of Infections and Cancer Epidemiology, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Lea Schroeder
- Division of Infections and Cancer Epidemiology, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Allan Hildesheim
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Rockville, MD
| | - Michael Pawlita
- Division of Infections and Cancer Epidemiology, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Gypsyamber D'Souza
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD
| | - Kala Visvanathan
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD
| | - Hilde Langseth
- Department of Research, Cancer Registry of Norway, Oslo, Norway
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Nicolas F. Schlecht
- Department of Cancer Prevention and Control, Roswell Park Comprehensive Cancer Center, Buffalo, NY
- Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, Albert Einstein College of Medicine, Bronx, NY
| | - Lesley F. Tinker
- Division of Public Health Sciences, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA
| | - Ilir Agalliu
- Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, Albert Einstein College of Medicine, Bronx, NY
| | | | - Eivind Ness-Jensen
- HUNT Research Center and K.G. Jebsen Center for Genetic Epidemiology, Department of Public Health and Nursing, NTNU, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Levanger/Trondheim, Norway
- Department of Medicine, Levanger Hospital, Nord-Trøndelag Hospital Trust, Levanger, Norway
- Department of Molecular Medicine and Surgery, Karolinska Institutet, Karolinska University Hospital, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Kristian Hveem
- HUNT Research Center and K.G. Jebsen Center for Genetic Epidemiology, Department of Public Health and Nursing, NTNU, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway
| | - Sara Grioni
- Epidemiology and Prevention Unit, Fondazione IRCCS Istituto Nazionale dei Tumori di Milano, Milano, Italy
| | - Rudolf Kaaks
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Maria-Jose Sánchez
- Escuela Andaluza de Salud Pública (EASP), Granada, Spain
- Instituto de Investigación Biosanitaria (ibs.GRANADA), Granada, Spain
- Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain
- Department of Preventive Medicine and Public Health, University of Granada, Granada, Spain
| | | | - Graham G. Giles
- Cancer Epidemiology Division, Cancer Council Victoria, Melbourne, Australia
- Centre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Australia
- Precision Medicine, School of Clinical Sciences at Monash Health, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Roger L. Milne
- Cancer Epidemiology Division, Cancer Council Victoria, Melbourne, Australia
- Centre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Australia
- Precision Medicine, School of Clinical Sciences at Monash Health, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Qiuyin Cai
- Division of Epidemiology, Department of Medicine, Vanderbilt Epidemiology Center, Vanderbilt-Ingram Cancer Center, Vanderbilt University School of Medicine, Nashville, TN
| | - William J. Blot
- Division of Epidemiology, Department of Medicine, Vanderbilt Epidemiology Center, Vanderbilt-Ingram Cancer Center, Vanderbilt University School of Medicine, Nashville, TN
| | - Wei Zheng
- Division of Epidemiology, Department of Medicine, Vanderbilt Epidemiology Center, Vanderbilt-Ingram Cancer Center, Vanderbilt University School of Medicine, Nashville, TN
| | | | - Demetrius Albanes
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Rockville, MD
| | - Wen-Yi Huang
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Rockville, MD
| | - Neal D. Freedman
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Rockville, MD
| | - Aimée R. Kreimer
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Rockville, MD
| | - Mattias Johansson
- Genomic Epidemiology Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Paul Brennan
- Genomic Epidemiology Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
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Li M, Zhang L, Charvat H, Callister ME, Sasieni P, Christodoulou E, Kaaks R, Johansson M, Carvalho AL, Vaccarella S, Robbins HA. The influence of postscreening follow-up time and participant characteristics on estimates of overdiagnosis from lung cancer screening trials. Int J Cancer 2022; 151:1491-1501. [PMID: 35809038 PMCID: PMC10157369 DOI: 10.1002/ijc.34167] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/14/2022] [Revised: 05/04/2022] [Accepted: 06/03/2022] [Indexed: 11/06/2022]
Abstract
We aimed to explore the underlying reasons that estimates of overdiagnosis vary across and within low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) lung cancer screening trials. We conducted a systematic review to identify estimates of overdiagnosis from randomised controlled trials of LDCT screening. We then analysed the association of Ps (the excess incidence of lung cancer as a proportion of screen-detected cases) with postscreening follow-up time using a linear random effects meta-regression model. Separately, we analysed annual Ps estimates from the US National Lung Screening Trial (NLST) and German Lung Cancer Screening Intervention Trial (LUSI) using exponential decay models with asymptotes. We conducted stratified analyses to investigate participant characteristics associated with Ps using the extended follow-up data from NLST. Among 12 overdiagnosis estimates from 8 trials, the postscreening follow-up ranged from 3.8 to 9.3 years, and Ps ranged from -27.0% (ITALUNG, 8.3 years follow-up) to 67.2% (DLCST, 5.0 years follow-up). Across trials, 39.1% of the variation in Ps was explained by postscreening follow-up time. The annual changes in Ps were -3.5% and -3.9% in the NLST and LUSI trials, respectively. Ps was predicted to plateau at 2.2% for NLST and 9.2% for LUSI with hypothetical infinite follow-up. In NLST, Ps increased with age from -14.9% (55-59 years) to 21.7% (70-74 years), and time trends in Ps varied by histological type. The findings suggest that differences in postscreening follow-up time partially explain variation in overdiagnosis estimates across lung cancer screening trials. Estimates of overdiagnosis should be interpreted in the context of postscreening follow-up and population characteristics.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mengmeng Li
- Department of Cancer Prevention, State Key Laboratory of Oncology in South China, Collaborative Innovation Center for Cancer Medicine, Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center, Guangzhou, China
| | - Li Zhang
- International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Hadrien Charvat
- International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
- Faculty of International Liberal Arts, Juntendo University, Tokyo, Japan
- Division of International Health Policy Research, Institute for Cancer Control, National Cancer Center, Tokyo, Japan
| | | | | | - Evangelia Christodoulou
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology, German Cancer Research Center, Heidelberg, Germany
- Translational Lung Research Center (TLRC) Heidelberg, Member of the German Center for Lung Research (DZL), Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Rudolf Kaaks
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology, German Cancer Research Center, Heidelberg, Germany
- Translational Lung Research Center (TLRC) Heidelberg, Member of the German Center for Lung Research (DZL), Heidelberg, Germany
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Smith-Byrne K, Cerani A, Guida F, Zhou S, Agudo A, Aleksandrova K, Barricarte A, Barranco MR, Bochers CH, Gram IT, Han J, Amos CI, Hung RJ, Grankvist K, Nøst TH, Imaz L, Chirlaque-López MD, Johansson M, Kaaks R, Kühn T, Martin RM, McKay JD, Pala V, Robbins HA, Sandanger TM, Schibli D, Schulze MB, Travis RC, Vineis P, Weiderpass E, Brennan P, Johansson M, Richards JB. Circulating Isovalerylcarnitine and Lung Cancer Risk: Evidence from Mendelian Randomization and Prediagnostic Blood Measurements. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2022; 31:1966-1974. [PMID: 35839461 PMCID: PMC9530646 DOI: 10.1158/1055-9965.epi-21-1033] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/02/2021] [Revised: 12/09/2021] [Accepted: 07/13/2022] [Indexed: 01/09/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Tobacco exposure causes 8 of 10 lung cancers, and identifying additional risk factors is challenging due to confounding introduced by smoking in traditional observational studies. MATERIALS AND METHODS We used Mendelian randomization (MR) to screen 207 metabolites for their role in lung cancer predisposition using independent genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of blood metabolite levels (n = 7,824) and lung cancer risk (n = 29,266 cases/56,450 controls). A nested case-control study (656 cases and 1,296 matched controls) was subsequently performed using prediagnostic blood samples to validate MR association with lung cancer incidence data from population-based cohorts (EPIC and NSHDS). RESULTS An MR-based scan of 207 circulating metabolites for lung cancer risk identified that blood isovalerylcarnitine (IVC) was associated with a decreased odds of lung cancer after accounting for multiple testing (log10-OR = 0.43; 95% CI, 0.29-0.63). Molar measurement of IVC in prediagnostic blood found similar results (log10-OR = 0.39; 95% CI, 0.21-0.72). Results were consistent across lung cancer subtypes. CONCLUSIONS Independent lines of evidence support an inverse association of elevated circulating IVC with lung cancer risk through a novel methodologic approach that integrates genetic and traditional epidemiology to efficiently identify novel cancer biomarkers. IMPACT Our results find compelling evidence in favor of a protective role for a circulating metabolite, IVC, in lung cancer etiology. From the treatment of a Mendelian disease, isovaleric acidemia, we know that circulating IVC is modifiable through a restricted protein diet or glycine and L-carnatine supplementation. IVC may represent a modifiable and inversely associated biomarker for lung cancer.
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Affiliation(s)
- Karl Smith-Byrne
- Genomic Epidemiology Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC-WHO), Lyon, France
| | - Agustin Cerani
- Department of Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Occupational Health, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada/Centre for Clinical Epidemiology, Lady Davis Institute for Medical Research, Jewish General Hospital, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
| | - Florence Guida
- Genomic Epidemiology Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC-WHO), Lyon, France
| | - Sirui Zhou
- Department of Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Occupational Health, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada/Centre for Clinical Epidemiology, Lady Davis Institute for Medical Research, Jewish General Hospital, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
| | - Antonio Agudo
- Unit of Nutrition and Cancer, Cancer Epidemiology Research Program, Institut Català d'Oncologia, Spain
| | - Krasimira Aleksandrova
- Nutrition, Immunity and Metabolism Senior Scientist Group, Department of Nutrition and Gerontology, German Institute of Human Nutrition Potsdam-Rehbruecke (DIfE), Nuthetal, Germany
- University of Potsdam, Institute of Nutritional Science, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Aurelio Barricarte
- Navarra Institute for Health Research (IdiSNA) Pamplona, Spain
- CIBER in Epidemiology and Public Health (CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain
| | - Miguel Rodríguez Barranco
- CIBER in Epidemiology and Public Health (CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain
- Escuela Andaluza de Salud Pública (EASP), Granada, Spain
- Instituto de Investigación Biosanitaria ibs.GRANADA, Granada, Spain
| | - Christoph H. Bochers
- Department of Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Occupational Health, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada/Centre for Clinical Epidemiology, Lady Davis Institute for Medical Research, Jewish General Hospital, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
- University of Victoria–Genome British Columbia Proteomics Centre, Victoria, BC, Canada/Division of Medical Sciences, University of Victoria, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Inger Torhild Gram
- Faculty of Health Sciences, Department of Community Medicine, University of Tromsø, The Arctic University of Norway, Norway
| | - Jun Han
- University of Victoria–Genome British Columbia Proteomics Centre, Victoria, BC, Canada/Division of Medical Sciences, University of Victoria, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Christopher I. Amos
- Dan L Duncan Comprehensive Cancer Center, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, Texas
| | - Rayjean J. Hung
- Prosserman Centre for Health Research, Mount Sinai Hospital, Toronto, Canada
| | - Kjell Grankvist
- Department of Medical Biosciences, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
| | - Therese Haugdhal Nøst
- Faculty of Health Sciences, Department of Community Medicine, University of Tromsø, The Arctic University of Norway, Norway
| | - Liher Imaz
- Ministry of Health of the Basque Government, Public Health Division of Gipuzkoa, Donostia-San Sebastian, Spain
- Biodonostia Health Research Institute, Donostia-San Sebastian, Spain
| | - María Dolores Chirlaque-López
- CIBER in Epidemiology and Public Health (CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain
- Department of Epidemiology, Regional Health Council, IMIB-Arrixaca, Murcia University, Murcia, Spain
| | | | - Rudolf Kaaks
- German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Heidelberg, Department of Cancer Epidemiology
- Translational Lung Research Center (TLRC) Heidelberg, Member of the German Center for Lung Research (DZL), Germany
| | - Tilman Kühn
- German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Heidelberg, Department of Cancer Epidemiology
| | - Richard M. Martin
- Clinical Epidemiology & Public Health, University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom
| | - James D. McKay
- Genomic Epidemiology Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC-WHO), Lyon, France
| | - Valeria Pala
- Epidemiology and Prevention Unit, Fondazione IRCCS Istituto Nazionale dei Tumori di Milano
| | - Hilary A. Robbins
- Genomic Epidemiology Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC-WHO), Lyon, France
| | - Torkjel M. Sandanger
- Faculty of Health Sciences, Department of Community Medicine, University of Tromsø, The Arctic University of Norway, Norway
| | - David Schibli
- University of Victoria–Genome British Columbia Proteomics Centre, Victoria, BC, Canada/Division of Medical Sciences, University of Victoria, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Matthias B. Schulze
- Nutrition, Immunity and Metabolism Senior Scientist Group, Department of Nutrition and Gerontology, German Institute of Human Nutrition Potsdam-Rehbruecke (DIfE), Nuthetal, Germany
- University of Potsdam, Institute of Nutritional Science, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Ruth C. Travis
- Cancer Epidemiology Unit, Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Paolo Vineis
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Elisabete Weiderpass
- Genomic Epidemiology Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC-WHO), Lyon, France
| | - Paul Brennan
- Genomic Epidemiology Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC-WHO), Lyon, France
| | - Mattias Johansson
- Genomic Epidemiology Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC-WHO), Lyon, France
| | - J. Brent Richards
- Department of Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Occupational Health, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada/Centre for Clinical Epidemiology, Lady Davis Institute for Medical Research, Jewish General Hospital, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
- Division of Endocrinology, Department of Medicine & Department of Human Genetics, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
- Department of Twin Research and Genetic Epidemiology, King's College London, Strand, London, United Kingdom
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Robbins HA, Zahed H, Lebrett MB, Balata H, Johansson M, Sharman A, Evans DG, Crosbie EJ, Booton R, Landy R, Crosbie PAJ. Explaining differences in the frequency of lung cancer detection between the National Lung Screening Trial and community-based screening in Manchester, UK. Lung Cancer 2022; 171:61-64. [PMID: 35917648 PMCID: PMC9790152 DOI: 10.1016/j.lungcan.2022.07.017] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/15/2022] [Accepted: 07/21/2022] [Indexed: 12/27/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The frequency of lung cancer detection in the Manchester Lung Health Checks (MLHCs), a community-based screening service, was higher than in the National Lung Screening Trial (NLST) over two screening rounds. We aimed to identify the potential reasons for this difference. METHODS We analyzed individual-level data from NLST and MLHCs, restricting to MLHCs participants who met NLST eligibility criteria. We calculated 'detection ratios' comparing the frequency of lung cancer detection in MLHCs vs NLST, first after excluding NLST participants ineligible by MLHC eligibility criteria (6-year lung cancer risk ≥ 1.51 %), and then after standardization to remove the influence of different distributions of baseline lung cancer risk. RESULTS Among the 1,079 MLHCs participants who met NLST eligibility criteria, 4.7% were diagnosed with lung cancer over two screening rounds compared with 1.7% in NLST, giving an initial detection ratio of 2.6 (95%CI 2.2-3.0). This was reduced to 2.2 (95%CI 1.3-2.3) after imposing the MLHCs eligibility criterion on NLST, and further to 1.6 (95%CI 1.2-2.1) after removing the influence of different risk distributions. In stratified analyses, the standardized detection ratio was particularly elevated in individuals who were older, living in areas of high socioeconomic disadvantage, or had an FEV/FVC ratio less than 60. CONCLUSIONS The 2.6-fold higher lung cancer detection in the community-based MLHCs vs NLST is partly explained by differences in eligibility criteria and baseline risk distributions. The residual 60% increase may relate to higher detection in certain risk groups, including older participants, those with more obstructive lung disease, and those living in areas of socioeconomic disadvantage.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hilary A Robbins
- Genomic Epidemiology Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France.
| | - Hana Zahed
- Genomic Epidemiology Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Mikey B Lebrett
- Prevention and Early Detection Theme, NIHR Manchester Biomedical Research Centre, Manchester, UK; Division of Infection, Immunity and Respiratory Medicine, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK
| | - Haval Balata
- Division of Infection, Immunity and Respiratory Medicine, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK; Manchester Thoracic Oncology Centre, Manchester University NHS Foundation Trust, Manchester, UK
| | - Mattias Johansson
- Genomic Epidemiology Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Anna Sharman
- Manchester Thoracic Oncology Centre, Manchester University NHS Foundation Trust, Manchester, UK
| | - D Gareth Evans
- Prevention and Early Detection Theme, NIHR Manchester Biomedical Research Centre, Manchester, UK; Division of Evolution and Genomic Sciences, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK
| | - Emma J Crosbie
- Prevention and Early Detection Theme, NIHR Manchester Biomedical Research Centre, Manchester, UK; Division of Cancer Sciences, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK
| | - Richard Booton
- Manchester Thoracic Oncology Centre, Manchester University NHS Foundation Trust, Manchester, UK
| | - Rebecca Landy
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Rockville, MD, USA
| | - Philip A J Crosbie
- Prevention and Early Detection Theme, NIHR Manchester Biomedical Research Centre, Manchester, UK; Division of Infection, Immunity and Respiratory Medicine, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK
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Affiliation(s)
- Hilary A Robbins
- Genomic Epidemiology Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Rebecca Landy
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Rockville, Maryland
| | - Jasjit S Ahluwalia
- Department of Behavioral and Social Sciences, Brown University School of Public Health, Providence, Rhode Island
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Feng X, Zahed H, Robbins HA. Editorial Comment. J Urol 2022; 207:332. [PMID: 34781695 PMCID: PMC10426447 DOI: 10.1097/ju.0000000000002249.01] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 09/11/2021] [Indexed: 11/25/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Xiaoshuang Feng
- Genomic Epidemiology Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Hana Zahed
- Genomic Epidemiology Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Hilary A Robbins
- Genomic Epidemiology Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
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Robbins HA, Cheung LC, Chaturvedi AK, Baldwin DR, Berg CD, Katki HA. Management of Lung Cancer Screening Results Based on Individual Prediction of Current and Future Lung Cancer Risks. J Thorac Oncol 2022; 17:252-263. [PMID: 34648946 PMCID: PMC10186153 DOI: 10.1016/j.jtho.2021.10.001] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/28/2021] [Revised: 09/03/2021] [Accepted: 10/04/2021] [Indexed: 12/21/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES We propose a risk-tailored approach for management of lung cancer screening results. This approach incorporates individual risk factors and low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) image features into calculations of immediate and next-screen (1-y) risks of lung cancer detection, which in turn can recommend short-interval imaging or 1-year or 2-year screening intervals. METHODS We first extended the "LCRAT+CT" individualized risk calculator to predict lung cancer risk after either a negative or abnormal LDCT screen result. To develop the abnormal screen portion, we analyzed 18,129 abnormal LDCT results in the National Lung Screening Trial (NLST), including lung cancers detected immediately (n = 649) or at the next screen (n = 235). We estimated the potential impact of this approach among NLST participants with any screen result (negative or abnormal). RESULTS Applying the draft National Health Service (NHS) England protocol for lung screening to NLST participants referred 76% of participants to a 2-year interval, but delayed diagnosis for 40% of detectable cancers. The Lung Cancer Risk Assessment Tool+Computed Tomography (LCRAT+CT) risk model, with a threshold of less than 0.95% cumulative lung cancer risk, would also refer 76% of participants to a 2-year interval, but would delay diagnosis for only 30% of cancers, a 25% reduction versus the NHS protocol. Alternatively, LCRAT+CT, with a threshold of less than 1.7% cumulative lung cancer risk, would also delay diagnosis for 40% of cancers, but would refer 85% of participants for a 2-year interval, a 38% further reduction in the number of required 1-year screens beyond the NHS protocol. CONCLUSIONS Using individualized risk models to determine management in lung cancer screening could substantially reduce the number of screens or increase early detection.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Li C. Cheung
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Rockville, Maryland, USA
| | - Anil K. Chaturvedi
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Rockville, Maryland, USA
| | | | - Christine D. Berg
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Rockville, Maryland, USA
| | - Hormuzd A. Katki
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Rockville, Maryland, USA
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Young CD, Cheung LC, Berg CD, Rivera P, Robbins HA, Chaturvedi AK, Katki HA, Landy R. Abstract PR-13: Potential effect on racial/ethnic disparities of removing racial/ethnic variables from risk models: The example of lung-cancer screening. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2022. [DOI: 10.1158/1538-7755.disp21-pr-13] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
Abstract
Abstract
Background: Some uses of “race correction” in clinical algorithms and prediction models unfairly reduce access to care, resulting in calls to remove racial/ethnic variables from all models and algorithms. However, for models that are based on unbiased, high-quality, and plentiful data, removing racial/ethnic variables may reduce prediction accuracy for minorities. We model racial/ethnic disparities in screening eligibility from augmenting USPSTF-2021 guidelines (ages 50-80, ≥20 pack-years, ≤15 quit-years) to also include individuals selected by an NCCN-recommended risk model that includes race (PLCOM2012) versus the same model with race/ethnicity removed (PLCOM2012_NoRace). Methods: We used previously published methodology to model the performance of lung cancer screening using 6915 ever-smokers ages 50-80 from the US-representative 2015 National Health Interview Survey (NHIS). Individuals were considered eligible for screening if they are eligible by USPSTF-2021 guidelines or by PLCOM2012 (“USPSTF+PLCOM2012”), versus being eligible by USPSTF-2021 or PLCOM2012_NoRace (“USPSTF+PLCOM2012_NoRace”). Both models used the NCCN-recommended ≥1.3% 6-year risk-threshold for eligibility. We evaluated model accuracy (average percent over/under-estimation) by race/ethnicity, estimated the proportion of life-years gainable achieved by each eligible cohort (LYG), and evaluated the LYG disparity (difference in LYG between whites and each minority). Results: USPSTF+PLCOM2012 and USPSTF+PLCOM2012_NoRace identified similar numbers of minorities as eligible for screening (~2.7 million). However, USPSTF+PLCOM2012_NoRace selected 125% more Hispanic-Americans and 31% less African-Americans. LYG disparities decreased using USPSTF+PLCOM2012_NoRace versus USPSTF+PLCOM2012 for Hispanic Americans (LYG: 33% to 29%). However, LYG disparities for African Americans increased (LYG: 16% to 18%). PLCOM2012 underestimated lung cancer risk by 49% for Hispanic-Americans, whereas PLCOM2012_NoRace performed well (4% overestimation). However, PLCOM2012underestimated risk in African-Americans by only 6%, PLCOM2012_NoRace underestimated risk in African-Americans by 36%. Conclusion: The model that was most accurate for a minority group was projected to reduce disparities the most for that group. Removing race from the PLCOM2012 model substantially underestimated risk for African-Americans and may increase disparities. Inexplicably, PLCOM2012 substantially underestimated risk in Hispanic-Americans despite including race/ethnicity, which was alleviated by removing race/ethnicity. Great care must be taken when removing racial/ethnic variables from models, because this will assign minorities risk estimates that may be largely, or entirely, based on the majority population.
Citation Format: Corey D. Young, Li C. Cheung, Christine D. Berg, Patricia Rivera, Hilary A. Robbins, Anil K. Chaturvedi, Hormuzd A. Katki, Rebecca Landy. Potential effect on racial/ethnic disparities of removing racial/ethnic variables from risk models: The example of lung-cancer screening [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the AACR Virtual Conference: 14th AACR Conference on the Science of Cancer Health Disparities in Racial/Ethnic Minorities and the Medically Underserved; 2021 Oct 6-8. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2022;31(1 Suppl):Abstract nr PR-13.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Li C. Cheung
- 2Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Department of Health and Human Services, Bethesda, MD,
| | - Christine D. Berg
- 2Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Department of Health and Human Services, Bethesda, MD,
| | - Patricia Rivera
- 3Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC,
| | | | - Anil K. Chaturvedi
- 2Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Department of Health and Human Services, Bethesda, MD,
| | - Hormuzd A. Katki
- 2Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Department of Health and Human Services, Bethesda, MD,
| | - Rebecca Landy
- 2Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Department of Health and Human Services, Bethesda, MD,
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Miranda-Filho A, Charvat H, Bray F, Migowski A, Cheung LC, Vaccarella S, Johansson M, Carvalho AL, Robbins HA. A modeling analysis to compare eligibility strategies for lung cancer screening in Brazil. EClinicalMedicine 2021; 42:101176. [PMID: 34765952 PMCID: PMC8571533 DOI: 10.1016/j.eclinm.2021.101176] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/27/2021] [Revised: 10/10/2021] [Accepted: 10/12/2021] [Indexed: 11/17/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Country-specific evidence is needed to guide decisions regarding whether and how to implement lung cancer screening in different settings. For this study, we estimated the potential numbers of individuals screened and lung cancer deaths prevented in Brazil after applying different strategies to define screening eligibility. METHODS We applied the Lung Cancer Death Risk Assessment Tool (LCDRAT) to survey data on current and former smokers (ever-smokers) in 15 Brazilian state capital cities that comprise 18% of the Brazilian population. We evaluated three strategies to define eligibility for screening: (1) pack-years and cessation time (≥30 pack-years and <15 years since cessation); (2) the LCDRAT risk model with a fixed risk threshold; and (3) LCDRAT with age-specific risk thresholds. FINDINGS Among 2.3 million Brazilian ever-smokers aged 55-79 years, 21,459 (95%CI 20,532-22,387) lung cancer deaths were predicted over 5 years without screening. Applying the fixed risk-based eligibility definition would prevent more lung cancer deaths than the pack-years definition [2,939 (95%CI 2751-3127) vs. 2,500 (95%CI 2318-2681) lung cancer deaths], and with higher screening efficiency [NNS=177 (95%CI 170-183) vs. 205 (95%CI 194-216)], but would tend to screen older individuals [mean age 67.8 (95%CI 67.5-68.2) vs. 63.4 (95%CI 63.0-63.9) years]. Applying age-specific risk thresholds would allow younger ever-smokers to be screened, although these individuals would be at lower risk. The age-specific thresholds strategy would avert three-fifths (60.1%) of preventable lung cancer deaths [N = 2629 (95%CI 2448-2810)] by screening 21.9% of ever-smokers. INTERPRETATION The definition of eligibility impacts the efficiency of lung cancer screening and the mean age of the eligible population. As implementation of lung screening proceeds in different countries, our analytical framework can be used to guide similar analyses in other contexts. Due to limitations of our models, more research would be needed.
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Affiliation(s)
- Adalberto Miranda-Filho
- International Agency for Research on Cancer, 150 Cours Albert Thomas, Lyon 69372 CEDEX 08, France
| | - Hadrien Charvat
- International Agency for Research on Cancer, 150 Cours Albert Thomas, Lyon 69372 CEDEX 08, France
| | - Freddie Bray
- International Agency for Research on Cancer, 150 Cours Albert Thomas, Lyon 69372 CEDEX 08, France
| | - Arn Migowski
- Cancer Early Detection Division, Brazilian National Cancer Institute (INCA), Brazil
- National Institute of Cardiology (INC), Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
| | - Li C. Cheung
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, DHHS, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Salvatore Vaccarella
- International Agency for Research on Cancer, 150 Cours Albert Thomas, Lyon 69372 CEDEX 08, France
| | - Mattias Johansson
- International Agency for Research on Cancer, 150 Cours Albert Thomas, Lyon 69372 CEDEX 08, France
| | - Andre L. Carvalho
- International Agency for Research on Cancer, 150 Cours Albert Thomas, Lyon 69372 CEDEX 08, France
| | - Hilary A. Robbins
- International Agency for Research on Cancer, 150 Cours Albert Thomas, Lyon 69372 CEDEX 08, France
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Landy R, Young CD, Skarzynski M, Cheung LC, Berg CD, Rivera MP, Robbins HA, Chaturvedi AK, Katki HA. Using Prediction Models to Reduce Persistent Racial and Ethnic Disparities in the Draft 2020 USPSTF Lung Cancer Screening Guidelines. J Natl Cancer Inst 2021; 113:1590-1594. [PMID: 33399825 PMCID: PMC8562965 DOI: 10.1093/jnci/djaa211] [Citation(s) in RCA: 69] [Impact Index Per Article: 23.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/13/2020] [Revised: 10/20/2020] [Accepted: 10/29/2020] [Indexed: 01/04/2023] Open
Abstract
We examined whether draft 2020 United States Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) lung cancer screening recommendations "partially ameliorate racial disparities in screening eligibility" compared with the 2013 guidelines, as claimed. Using data from the 2015 National Health Interview Survey, USPSTF-2020 increased eligibility by similar proportions for minorities (97.1%) and Whites (78.3%). Contrary to the intent of USPSTF-2020, the relative disparity (differences in percentages of model-estimated gainable life-years from National Lung Screening Trial-like screening by eligible Whites vs minorities) actually increased from USPSTF-2013 to USPSTF-2020 (African Americans: 48.3%-33.4% = 15.0% to 64.5%-48.5% = 16.0%; Asian Americans: 48.3%-35.6% = 12.7% to 64.5%-45.2% = 19.3%; Hispanic Americans: 48.3%-24.8% = 23.5% to 64.5%-37.0% = 27.5%). However, augmenting USPSTF-2020 with high-benefit individuals selected by the Life-Years From Screening with Computed Tomography (LYFS-CT) model nearly eliminated disparities for African Americans (76.8%-75.5% = 1.2%) and improved screening efficiency for Asian and Hispanic Americans, although disparities were reduced only slightly (Hispanic Americans) or unchanged (Asian Americans). The draft USPSTF-2020 guidelines increased the number of eligible minorities vs USPSTF-2013 but may inadvertently increase racial and ethnic disparities. LYFS-CT could reduce disparities in screening eligibility by identifying ineligible people with high predicted benefit regardless of race and ethnicity.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rebecca Landy
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Department of Health and Human Services, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Corey D Young
- Department of Microbiology, Biochemistry and Immunology, Morehouse School of Medicine, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Martin Skarzynski
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Department of Health and Human Services, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Li C Cheung
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Department of Health and Human Services, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Christine D Berg
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Department of Health and Human Services, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - M Patricia Rivera
- Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA
| | | | - Anil K Chaturvedi
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Department of Health and Human Services, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Hormuzd A Katki
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Department of Health and Human Services, Bethesda, MD, USA
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Zahed H, Johansson M, Ueland PM, Midttun Ø, Milne RL, Giles GG, Manjer J, Sandsveden M, Langhammer A, Sørgjerd EP, Grankvist K, Johansson M, Freedman ND, Huang WY, Chen C, Prentice R, Stevens VL, Wang Y, Le Marchand L, Wilkens LR, Weinstein SJ, Albanes D, Cai Q, Blot WJ, Arslan AA, Zeleniuch-Jacquotte A, Shu XO, Zheng W, Yuan JM, Koh WP, Visvanathan K, Sesso HD, Zhang X, Gaziano JM, Fanidi A, Muller D, Brennan P, Guida F, Robbins HA. Epidemiology of 40 blood biomarkers of one-carbon metabolism, vitamin status, inflammation, and renal and endothelial function among cancer-free older adults. Sci Rep 2021; 11:13805. [PMID: 34226613 PMCID: PMC8257595 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-93214-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/11/2021] [Accepted: 05/21/2021] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
Imbalances of blood biomarkers are associated with disease, and biomarkers may also vary non-pathologically across population groups. We described variation in concentrations of biomarkers of one-carbon metabolism, vitamin status, inflammation including tryptophan metabolism, and endothelial and renal function among cancer-free older adults. We analyzed 5167 cancer-free controls aged 40-80 years from 20 cohorts in the Lung Cancer Cohort Consortium (LC3). Centralized biochemical analyses of 40 biomarkers in plasma or serum were performed. We fit multivariable linear mixed effects models to quantify variation in standardized biomarker log-concentrations across four factors: age, sex, smoking status, and body mass index (BMI). Differences in most biomarkers across most factors were small, with 93% (186/200) of analyses showing an estimated difference lower than 0.25 standard-deviations, although most were statistically significant due to large sample size. The largest difference was for creatinine by sex, which was - 0.91 standard-deviations lower in women than men (95%CI - 0.98; - 0.84). The largest difference by age was for total cysteine (0.40 standard-deviation increase per 10-year increase, 95%CI 0.36; 0.43), and by BMI was for C-reactive protein (0.38 standard-deviation increase per 5-kg/m2 increase, 95%CI 0.34; 0.41). For 31 of 40 markers, the mean difference between current and never smokers was larger than between former and never smokers. A statistically significant (p < 0.05) association with time since smoking cessation was observed for 8 markers, including C-reactive protein, kynurenine, choline, and total homocysteine. We conclude that most blood biomarkers show small variations across demographic characteristics. Patterns by smoking status point to normalization of multiple physiological processes after smoking cessation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hana Zahed
- Genomic Epidemiology Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, 150 cours Albert Thomas, 69008, Lyon, France
| | - Mattias Johansson
- Genomic Epidemiology Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, 150 cours Albert Thomas, 69008, Lyon, France
| | - Per M Ueland
- Department of Clinical Science, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
| | | | - Roger L Milne
- Cancer Epidemiology Division, Cancer Council Victoria, Melbourne, Australia
- Centre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia
- Precision Medicine, School of Clinical Sciences at Monash Health, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Graham G Giles
- Cancer Epidemiology Division, Cancer Council Victoria, Melbourne, Australia
- Centre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia
- Precision Medicine, School of Clinical Sciences at Monash Health, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Jonas Manjer
- Department of Surgery, Skane University Hospital, Malmö, Sweden
- Lund University, Malmö, Sweden
| | - Malte Sandsveden
- Department of Clinical Sciences Malmo, Lund University, Malmö, Sweden
| | - Arnulf Langhammer
- Department of Public Health and Nursing, Hunt Research Centre, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Levanger, Norway
- Levanger Hospital, Nord-Trøndelag Hospital Trust, Levanger, Norway
| | - Elin Pettersen Sørgjerd
- Department of Public Health and Nursing, NTNU, Hunt Research Centre, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Levanger, Norway
- Department of Endocrinology, St. Olavs Hospital, Trondheim University Hospital, Levanger, Norway
| | - Kjell Grankvist
- Department of Medical Biosciences, Umea University, Umeå, Sweden
| | - Mikael Johansson
- Department of Radiation Sciences, Oncology, Umea University, Umeå, Sweden
| | - Neal D Freedman
- Metabolic Epidemiology Branch, Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Wen-Yi Huang
- Metabolic Epidemiology Branch, Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Chu Chen
- Public Health Sciences Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, USA
| | - Ross Prentice
- Public Health Sciences Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, USA
| | | | - Ying Wang
- American Cancer Society, Atlanta, USA
| | - Loic Le Marchand
- University of Hawai'i Cancer Center, University of Hawai'i at Mānoa, Honolulu, USA
| | - Lynne R Wilkens
- University of Hawai'i Cancer Center, University of Hawai'i at Mānoa, Honolulu, USA
| | - Stephanie J Weinstein
- Metabolic Epidemiology Branch, Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Demetrius Albanes
- Metabolic Epidemiology Branch, Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Qiuyin Cai
- Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, USA
| | | | - Alan A Arslan
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, NYU Langone Health, New York, NY, USA
- Department of Population Health, NYU Langone Health, New York, NY, USA
- Perlmutter Comprehensive Cancer Center, NYU Langone Health, New York, NY, USA
| | - Anne Zeleniuch-Jacquotte
- Department of Population Health, NYU Langone Health, New York, NY, USA
- Perlmutter Comprehensive Cancer Center, NYU Langone Health, New York, NY, USA
| | - Xiao-Ou Shu
- Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, USA
| | - Wei Zheng
- Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, USA
| | - Jian-Min Yuan
- University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, Pittsburgh, USA
| | | | - Kala Visvanathan
- Johns Hopkins Institute for Clinical and Translational Research, Baltimore, USA
| | - Howard D Sesso
- Brigham and Women's Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, USA
- Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, USA
| | - Xuehong Zhang
- Brigham and Women's Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, USA
- Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, USA
| | - J Michael Gaziano
- Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, USA
- Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, USA
| | | | - David Muller
- Imperial College London School of Public Health, London, UK
| | - Paul Brennan
- Genomic Epidemiology Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, 150 cours Albert Thomas, 69008, Lyon, France
| | - Florence Guida
- Genomic Epidemiology Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, 150 cours Albert Thomas, 69008, Lyon, France
| | - Hilary A Robbins
- Genomic Epidemiology Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, 150 cours Albert Thomas, 69008, Lyon, France.
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Robbins HA, Alcala K, Swerdlow AJ, Schoemaker MJ, Wareham N, Travis RC, Crosbie PAJ, Callister M, Baldwin DR, Landy R, Johansson M. Correction: Comparative performance of lung cancer risk models to define lung screening eligibility in the United Kingdom. Br J Cancer 2021; 125:305. [PMID: 34002041 PMCID: PMC8292451 DOI: 10.1038/s41416-021-01436-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
| | - Karine Alcala
- International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | | | | | | | - Ruth C Travis
- Cancer Epidemiology Unit, Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | | | | | - David R Baldwin
- Nottingham University Hospitals and University of Nottingham, Nottingham, UK
| | - Rebecca Landy
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, Department of Health and Human Services, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
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Aredo JV, Luo SJ, Gardner RM, Sanyal N, Choi E, Hickey TP, Riley TL, Huang WY, Kurian AW, Leung AN, Wilkens LR, Robbins HA, Riboli E, Kaaks R, Tjønneland A, Vermeulen RCH, Panico S, Le Marchand L, Amos CI, Hung RJ, Freedman ND, Johansson M, Cheng I, Wakelee HA, Han SS. Tobacco Smoking and Risk of Second Primary Lung Cancer. J Thorac Oncol 2021; 16:968-979. [PMID: 33722709 PMCID: PMC8159872 DOI: 10.1016/j.jtho.2021.02.024] [Citation(s) in RCA: 50] [Impact Index Per Article: 16.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/04/2020] [Revised: 02/23/2021] [Accepted: 02/26/2021] [Indexed: 12/25/2022]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Lung cancer survivors are at high risk of developing a second primary lung cancer (SPLC). However, SPLC risk factors have not been established and the impact of tobacco smoking remains controversial. We examined the risk factors for SPLC across multiple epidemiologic cohorts and evaluated the impact of smoking cessation on reducing SPLC risk. METHODS We analyzed data from 7059 participants in the Multiethnic Cohort (MEC) diagnosed with an initial primary lung cancer (IPLC) between 1993 and 2017. Cause-specific proportional hazards models estimated SPLC risk. We conducted validation studies using the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial (N = 3423 IPLC cases) and European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (N = 4731 IPLC cases) cohorts and pooled the SPLC risk estimates using random effects meta-analysis. RESULTS Overall, 163 MEC cases (2.3%) developed SPLC. Smoking pack-years (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.18 per 10 pack-years, p < 0.001) and smoking intensity (HR = 1.30 per 10 cigarettes per day, p < 0.001) were significantly associated with increased SPLC risk. Individuals who met the 2013 U.S. Preventive Services Task Force's screening criteria at IPLC diagnosis also had an increased SPLC risk (HR = 1.92; p < 0.001). Validation studies with the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial and European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition revealed consistent results. Meta-analysis yielded pooled HRs of 1.16 per 10 pack-years (pmeta < 0.001), 1.25 per 10 cigarettes per day (pmeta < 0.001), and 1.99 (pmeta < 0.001) for meeting the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force's criteria. In MEC, smoking cessation after IPLC diagnosis was associated with an 83% reduction in SPLC risk (HR = 0.17; p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS Tobacco smoking is a risk factor for SPLC. Smoking cessation may reduce the risk of SPLC. Additional strategies for SPLC surveillance and screening are warranted.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Sophia J Luo
- Quantitative Sciences Unit, Department of Medicine, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California
| | - Rebecca M Gardner
- Quantitative Sciences Unit, Department of Medicine, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California
| | - Nilotpal Sanyal
- Quantitative Sciences Unit, Department of Medicine, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California
| | - Eunji Choi
- Quantitative Sciences Unit, Department of Medicine, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California
| | | | | | - Wen-Yi Huang
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology & Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, Maryland
| | - Allison W Kurian
- Stanford Cancer Institute, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California; Department of Medicine, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California; Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California
| | - Ann N Leung
- Department of Radiology, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California
| | - Lynne R Wilkens
- Cancer Epidemiology Program, University of Hawaii Cancer Center, Honolulu, Hawaii
| | | | - Elio Riboli
- Epidemiology and Prevention, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Rudolf Kaaks
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Heidelberg, Germany; German Center for Lung Research, Translational Lung Research Center Heidelberg (TLRC-H), Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Anne Tjønneland
- Diet, Genes and Environment, Danish Cancer Society Research Center, Copenhagen, Denmark; Department of Public Health, Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Roel C H Vermeulen
- Division Environmental Epidemiology, Institute for Risk Assessment Sciences (IRAS), Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands; Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Salvatore Panico
- Department of Clinical Medicine and Surgery, Federico II University, Naples, Italy
| | - Loïc Le Marchand
- Cancer Epidemiology Program, University of Hawaii Cancer Center, Honolulu, Hawaii
| | | | - Rayjean J Hung
- Prosserman Centre for Population Health Research, Lunenfeld-Tanenbaum Research Institute, Sinai Health System, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Neal D Freedman
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology & Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, Maryland
| | | | - Iona Cheng
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California, San Francisco, California
| | - Heather A Wakelee
- Stanford Cancer Institute, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California
| | - Summer S Han
- Quantitative Sciences Unit, Department of Medicine, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California; Stanford Cancer Institute, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California; Department of Neurosurgery, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California.
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Laskar R, Ferreiro-Iglesias A, Bishop DT, Iles MM, Kanetsky PA, Armstrong BK, Law MH, Goldstein AM, Aitken JF, Giles GG, Cust AE. Risk factors for melanoma by anatomical site: an evaluation of aetiological heterogeneity. Br J Dermatol 2021; 184:1085-1093. [PMID: 33270213 PMCID: PMC9969114 DOI: 10.1111/bjd.19705] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 11/30/2020] [Indexed: 12/15/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Melanoma aetiology has been proposed to have two pathways, which are determined by naevi and type of sun exposure and related to the anatomical site where melanoma develops. OBJECTIVES We examined associations with melanoma by anatomical site for a comprehensive set of risk factors including pigmentary and naevus phenotypes, ultraviolet radiation exposure and polygenic risk. METHODS We analysed harmonized data from 2617 people with incident first invasive melanoma and 975 healthy controls recruited through two population-based case-control studies in Australia and the UK. Questionnaire data were collected by interview using a single protocol, and pathway-specific polygenic risk scores were derived from DNA samples. We estimated adjusted odds ratios using unconditional logistic regression that compared melanoma cases at each anatomical site with all controls. RESULTS When cases were compared with control participants, there were stronger associations for many naevi vs. no naevi for melanomas on the trunk, and upper and lower limbs than on the head and neck (P-heterogeneity < 0·001). Very fair skin (vs. olive/brown skin) was more weakly related to melanoma on the trunk than to melanomas at other sites (P-heterogeneity = 0·04). There was no significant difference by anatomical site for polygenic risk. Increased weekday sun exposure was positively associated with melanoma on the head and neck but not on other sites. CONCLUSIONS We found evidence of aetiological heterogeneity for melanoma, supporting the dual pathway hypothesis. These findings enhance understanding of risk factors for melanoma and can guide prevention and skin examination education and practices.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ruhina Laskar
- International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | | | - D Timothy Bishop
- Leeds Institute of Haematology and Immunology, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
| | - Mark M Iles
- Division of Haematology and Immunology, Leeds Institute of Medical Research at St James’s, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
- Leeds Institute of Data Analytics, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
| | - Peter A Kanetsky
- Cancer Epidemiology Program, Moffitt Cancer Center, Tampa, FL, USA
| | - Bruce K Armstrong
- Cancer Epidemiology and Prevention Research Group, Sydney School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health, The University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia
| | - Matthew H Law
- Statistical Genetics, QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute, Brisbane, Australia
- Queensland University of Technology (QUT), Brisbane, Australia
| | - Alisa M Goldstein
- Human Genetics Program, Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, Maryland, USA
| | - Joanne F Aitken
- Viertel Centre for Research in Cancer Control, the Cancer Council Queensland, Brisbane, Australia
| | - Graham G Giles
- Cancer Epidemiology Division, Cancer Council Victoria, 615 St Kilda Road, Melbourne, Victoria 3004, Australia
- Centre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia
- Precision Medicine, School of Clinical Sciences at Monash Health, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria, Australia
| | | | | | | | - Anne E Cust
- International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
- Cancer Epidemiology and Prevention Research Group, Sydney School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health, The University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia
- The Melanoma Institute Australia, The University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia
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Robbins HA, Alcala K, Swerdlow AJ, Schoemaker MJ, Wareham N, Travis RC, Crosbie PAJ, Callister M, Baldwin DR, Landy R, Johansson M. Comparative performance of lung cancer risk models to define lung screening eligibility in the United Kingdom. Br J Cancer 2021; 124:2026-2034. [PMID: 33846525 PMCID: PMC8184952 DOI: 10.1038/s41416-021-01278-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/22/2020] [Revised: 01/04/2021] [Accepted: 01/13/2021] [Indexed: 01/31/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The National Health Service England (NHS) classifies individuals as eligible for lung cancer screening using two risk prediction models, PLCOm2012 and Liverpool Lung Project-v2 (LLPv2). However, no study has compared the performance of lung cancer risk models in the UK. METHODS We analysed current and former smokers aged 40-80 years in the UK Biobank (N = 217,199), EPIC-UK (N = 30,813), and Generations Study (N = 25,777). We quantified model calibration (ratio of expected to observed cases, E/O) and discrimination (AUC). RESULTS Risk discrimination in UK Biobank was best for the Lung Cancer Death Risk Assessment Tool (LCDRAT, AUC = 0.82, 95% CI = 0.81-0.84), followed by the LCRAT (AUC = 0.81, 95% CI = 0.79-0.82) and the Bach model (AUC = 0.80, 95% CI = 0.79-0.81). Results were similar in EPIC-UK and the Generations Study. All models overestimated risk in all cohorts, with E/O in UK Biobank ranging from 1.20 for LLPv3 (95% CI = 1.14-1.27) to 2.16 for LLPv2 (95% CI = 2.05-2.28). Overestimation increased with area-level socioeconomic status. In the combined cohorts, USPSTF 2013 criteria classified 50.7% of future cases as screening eligible. The LCDRAT and LCRAT identified 60.9%, followed by PLCOm2012 (58.3%), Bach (58.0%), LLPv3 (56.6%), and LLPv2 (53.7%). CONCLUSION In UK cohorts, the ability of risk prediction models to classify future lung cancer cases as eligible for screening was best for LCDRAT/LCRAT, very good for PLCOm2012, and lowest for LLPv2. Our results highlight the importance of validating prediction tools in specific countries.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Karine Alcala
- International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | | | | | | | - Ruth C Travis
- Cancer Epidemiology Unit, Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | | | | | - David R Baldwin
- Nottingham University Hospitals and University of Nottingham, Nottingham, UK
| | - Rebecca Landy
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, Department of Health and Human Services, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
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González Maldonado S, Hynes LC, Motsch E, Heussel CP, Kauczor HU, Robbins HA, Delorme S, Kaaks R. Validation of multivariable lung cancer risk prediction models for the personalized assignment of optimal screening frequency: a retrospective analysis of data from the German Lung Cancer Screening Intervention Trial (LUSI). Transl Lung Cancer Res 2021; 10:1305-1317. [PMID: 33889511 PMCID: PMC8044498 DOI: 10.21037/tlcr-20-1173] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/05/2020] [Accepted: 01/25/2021] [Indexed: 12/23/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Current guidelines for lung cancer screening via low-dose computed tomography recommend annual screening for all candidates meeting basic eligibility criteria. However, lung cancer risk of eligible screening participants can vary widely, and further risk stratification could be used to individually optimize screening intervals in view of expected benefits, possible harms and financial costs. To this effect, models have been developed in the US National Lung Screening Trial based on self-reported lung cancer risk factors and imaging data. We evaluated these models using data from an independent screening trial in Germany. METHODS We examined the Polynomial model by Schreuder et al., the Lung Cancer Risk Assessment Tool extended by CT characteristics (LCRAT + CT) by Robbins et al., and a criterion of presence vs. absence of pulmonary nodules ≥4 mm (Patz et al.), applied to sub-sets of screening participants according to eligibility criteria. Discrimination was evaluated via the receiver operating characteristic curve. Delayed diagnoses and false positive results were calculated at various thresholds of predicted risk. Model calibration was assessed by comparing mean predicted risk versus observed incidence. RESULTS One thousand five hundred and six participants were eligible for the validation of the LCRAT + CT model, and 1,889 for the validation of the Polynomial model and Patz criterion, yielding areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.73 (95% CI: 0.63, 0.82), 0.75 (0.67, 0.83), and 0.56 (0.53, 0.72) respectively. Skipping 50% annual screenings (participants within the 5 lowest risk deciles by LCRAT + CT in any round or by the Polynomial model; baseline screening round), would have avoided 75% (21.9%, 98.7%) and 40% (21.8%, 61.1%) false positive screen tests and delayed 10% (1.8%, 33.1%) or no (0%, 32.1%) diagnoses, respectively. Using the Patz criterion, referring 63.2% (61.0% to 65.4%) of participants to biennial screening would have avoided 4% (0.2% to 22.3%) of false positive screen tests but delayed 55% (24.6% to 81.9%) diagnoses. CONCLUSIONS In this German trial, the LCRAT + CT and Polynomial models showed useful discrimination of screening participants for one-year lung cancer risk following CT examination. Our results illustrate the remaining heterogeneity in risk within screening-eligible subjects and the trade-off between a low-frequency screening approach and delayed detection.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sandra González Maldonado
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology (C020), German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Im Neuenheimer Feld 581, 69120 Heidelberg, Germany
- Translational Lung Research Center Heidelberg (TLRC-H), Member of the German Center for Lung Research, Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Lucas Cory Hynes
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology (C020), German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Im Neuenheimer Feld 581, 69120 Heidelberg, Germany
- Translational Lung Research Center Heidelberg (TLRC-H), Member of the German Center for Lung Research, Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Erna Motsch
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology (C020), German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Im Neuenheimer Feld 581, 69120 Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Claus-Peter Heussel
- Translational Lung Research Center Heidelberg (TLRC-H), Member of the German Center for Lung Research, Heidelberg, Germany
- Department of Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology with Nuclear Medicine, Thoraxklinik Heidelberg, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Hans-Ulrich Kauczor
- Translational Lung Research Center Heidelberg (TLRC-H), Member of the German Center for Lung Research, Heidelberg, Germany
- Department of Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology, Heidelberg University Clinic, Heidelberg, Germany
| | | | - Stefan Delorme
- Department of Radiology, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Im Neuenheimer Feld 280, 69120 Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Rudolf Kaaks
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology (C020), German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Im Neuenheimer Feld 581, 69120 Heidelberg, Germany
- Translational Lung Research Center Heidelberg (TLRC-H), Member of the German Center for Lung Research, Heidelberg, Germany
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Baldwin DR, Callister ME, Crosbie PA, O'Dowd EL, Rintoul RC, Robbins HA, Steele RJC. Biomarkers in lung cancer screening: the importance of study design. Eur Respir J 2021; 57:2004367. [PMID: 33446580 PMCID: PMC7968073 DOI: 10.1183/13993003.04367-2020] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/30/2020] [Accepted: 12/07/2020] [Indexed: 12/18/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- David R Baldwin
- Respiratory Medicine, Nottingham University Hospitals, Nottingham, UK
- University of Nottingham, Nottingham, UK
| | - Matthew E Callister
- Leeds Teaching Hospitals, Leeds, UK
- University of Leeds, St James's University Hospital, Leeds, UK
| | - Philip A Crosbie
- Division of Infection, Immunity and Respiratory Medicine, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK
- Manchester Thoracic Oncology Centre, North West Lung Centre, Manchester University NHS Foundation Trust, Manchester, UK
| | - Emma L O'Dowd
- Respiratory Medicine, Nottingham University Hospitals, Nottingham, UK
- University of Nottingham, Nottingham, UK
| | - Robert C Rintoul
- Dept of Oncology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
- Dept of Thoracic Oncology, Royal Papworth Hospital, Cambridge, UK
| | - Hilary A Robbins
- Genetic Epidemiology Group, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Robert J C Steele
- UK National Screening Committee, Dept of Surgery, Ninewells Hospital, University of Dundee, Dundee, UK
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Callister MEJ, Sasieni P, Robbins HA. Overdiagnosis in lung cancer screening. Lancet Respir Med 2021; 9:7-9. [PMID: 33412118 PMCID: PMC8021885 DOI: 10.1016/s2213-2600(20)30553-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/23/2020] [Revised: 11/18/2020] [Accepted: 11/18/2020] [Indexed: 11/22/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Matthew E J Callister
- Department of Respiratory Medicine, Leeds Teaching Hospitals, St James's University Hospital, Leeds LS9 7TF, UK.
| | - Peter Sasieni
- School of Cancer & Pharmaceutical Sciences, King's College London, London, UK
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Waterboer T, Brenner N, Klussmann JP, Brennan P, Wieland U, Robbins HA. Study results and related evidence do not support use of HPV16 L1 DRH1 antibodies as a cancer screening test. EBioMedicine 2020; 62:103143. [PMID: 33249381 PMCID: PMC7701317 DOI: 10.1016/j.ebiom.2020.103143] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/06/2020] [Accepted: 11/09/2020] [Indexed: 12/02/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Tim Waterboer
- Infections and Cancer Epidemiology, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Heidelberg, Germany.
| | - Nicole Brenner
- Infections and Cancer Epidemiology, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Jens P Klussmann
- Department of Otorhinolaryngology, Head and Neck Surgery, Medical Faculty, University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany
| | - Paul Brennan
- Genetic Epidemiology Group, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Ulrike Wieland
- National Reference Center for Papilloma- and Polyomaviruses, University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany
| | - Hilary A Robbins
- Genetic Epidemiology Group, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
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Landy R, Young CD, Skarzynski M, Cheung LC, Berg CD, Rivera MP, Robbins HA, Chaturvedi AK, Katki HA. Abstract PO-247: Use of prediction models to reduce racial/ethnic disparities in eligibility for lung-cancer screening. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2020. [DOI: 10.1158/1538-7755.disp20-po-247] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
Abstract
Abstract
Background: For the same age and smoking history as whites, minorities have substantially different lung-cancer risk. However, current US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) lung-cancer screening recommendations make no allowance for race/ethnicity and may induce health disparities. Incorporating individualized prediction-models into USPSTF guidelines may reduce racial/ethnic disparities in lung-cancer screening eligibility. We examine whether expanding current USPSTF lung cancer screening eligibility to include ever-smokers whose risk (calculated by an individualized prediction model) exceeded a threshold would reduce racial/ethnic disparities induced by current USPSTF guidelines. Methods: We used the US- representative 2015 National Health Interview Survey to examine screening eligibility. We identified the thresholds for each of 5 models: lung-cancer risk (Bach, PLCOM2012 and LCRAT models), lung-cancer death risk (LCDRAT model), and life- years gained by attending screening (LYFS-CT model), which select the same number of ever-smokers aged 50-80yrs as USPSTF guidelines. We defined 5 cohorts of ever- smokers as eligible for screening if they were eligible by each screening model or USPSTF guidelines. Among each race/ethnicity, we calculated the number eligible for screening, proportion of preventable lung-cancer deaths prevented (LCD sensitivity), proportion of gainable life-years gained (LYG sensitivity) and screening effectiveness (the number needed to screen to prevent one lung-cancer death). Results: USPSTF criteria performed best for whites (20% eligible, preventing 55% of preventable lung- cancer deaths). Asian-Americans had the least effective screening (NNS=419), only 13% of African-Americans were eligible despite having the most effective screening (NNS=135), and Hispanic-Americans had the lowest percentages eligible (9%) and deaths preventable (30%). Augmenting USPSTF criteria with LCDRAT or LYFS-CT prediction-models nearly equalized the performance of screening for African- Americans with that of whites, doubling the number of African-Americans eligible and increasing the number of preventable deaths and life-years gained by nearly 80%, although at a 25% loss in effectiveness. Prediction-models improved all screening metrics for Asian-Americans and Hispanic-Americans. However models estimated risk more accurately for whites than minorities. Conclusions: Augmenting USPSTF criteria with the LCDRAT or LYFS-CT prediction-models nearly eliminated the white/African-American disparity. All screening metrics were substantially improved for Asian/Hispanic-Americans.
Citation Format: Rebecca Landy, Corey D. Young, Martin Skarzynski, Li C. Cheung, Christine D. Berg, M. Patricia Rivera, Hilary A. Robbins, Anil K. Chaturvedi, Hormuzd A. Katki. Use of prediction models to reduce racial/ethnic disparities in eligibility for lung-cancer screening [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the AACR Virtual Conference: Thirteenth AACR Conference on the Science of Cancer Health Disparities in Racial/Ethnic Minorities and the Medically Underserved; 2020 Oct 2-4. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2020;29(12 Suppl):Abstract nr PO-247.
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Lebrett MB, Balata H, Evison M, Colligan D, Duerden R, Elton P, Greaves M, Howells J, Irion K, Karunaratne D, Lyons J, Mellor S, Myerscough A, Newton T, Sharman A, Smith E, Taylor B, Taylor S, Walsham A, Whittaker J, Barber PV, Tonge J, Robbins HA, Booton R, Crosbie PAJ. Analysis of lung cancer risk model (PLCO M2012 and LLP v2) performance in a community-based lung cancer screening programme. Thorax 2020; 75:661-668. [PMID: 32631933 PMCID: PMC7402560 DOI: 10.1136/thoraxjnl-2020-214626] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/05/2020] [Revised: 04/08/2020] [Accepted: 04/20/2020] [Indexed: 12/13/2022]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Low-dose CT (LDCT) screening of high-risk smokers reduces lung cancer (LC) specific mortality. Determining screening eligibility using individualised risk may improve screening effectiveness and reduce harm. Here, we compare the performance of two risk prediction models (PLCOM2012 and Liverpool Lung Project model (LLPv2)) and National Lung Screening Trial (NLST) eligibility criteria in a community-based screening programme. METHODS Ever-smokers aged 55-74, from deprived areas of Manchester, were invited to a Lung Health Check (LHC). Individuals at higher risk (PLCOM2012 score ≥1.51%) were offered annual LDCT screening over two rounds. LLPv2 score was calculated but not used for screening selection; ≥2.5% and ≥5% thresholds were used for analysis. RESULTS PLCOM2012 ≥1.51% selected 56% (n=1429) of LHC attendees for screening. LLPv2 ≥2.5% also selected 56% (n=1430) whereas NLST (47%, n=1188) and LLPv2 ≥5% (33%, n=826) selected fewer. Over two screening rounds 62 individuals were diagnosed with LC; representing 87% (n=62/71) of 6-year incidence predicted by mean PLCOM2012 score (5.0%). 26% (n=16/62) of individuals with LC were not eligible for screening using LLPv2 ≥5%, 18% (n=11/62) with NLST criteria and 7% (n=5/62) with LLPv2 ≥2.5%. NLST eligible Manchester attendees had 2.5 times the LC detection rate than NLST participants after two annual screens (≈4.3% (n=51/1188) vs 1.7% (n=438/26 309); p<0.0001). Adverse measures of health, including airflow obstruction, respiratory symptoms and cardiovascular disease, were positively correlated with LC risk. Coronary artery calcification was predictive of LC (adjOR 2.50, 95% CI 1.11 to 5.64; p=0.028). CONCLUSION Prospective comparisons of risk prediction tools are required to optimise screening selection in different settings. The PLCOM2012 model may underestimate risk in deprived UK populations; further research focused on model calibration is required.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mikey B Lebrett
- Division of Infection, Immunity and Respiratory Medicine, The University of Manchester, Manchester, UK
- Prevention and Early Detection Theme, NIHR Manchester Biomedical Research Centre, Manchester, UK
| | - Haval Balata
- Division of Infection, Immunity and Respiratory Medicine, The University of Manchester, Manchester, UK
- Manchester Thoracic Oncology Centre, Manchester University NHS Foundation Trust, Manchester, UK
| | - Matthew Evison
- Manchester Thoracic Oncology Centre, Manchester University NHS Foundation Trust, Manchester, UK
| | - Denis Colligan
- South Manchester Clinical Commissioning Group, Macmillan Cancer Improvement Partnership, Manchester, UK
- Manchester Health and Care Commissioning, Manchester, Manchester, UK
| | - Rebecca Duerden
- Manchester Thoracic Oncology Centre, Manchester University NHS Foundation Trust, Manchester, UK
- Department of Radiology, Manchester University NHS Foundation Trust, Manchester, UK
| | - Peter Elton
- Greater Manchester and Eastern Cheshire Strategic Clinical Networks, Manchester, Manchester, UK
| | - Melanie Greaves
- Manchester Thoracic Oncology Centre, Manchester University NHS Foundation Trust, Manchester, UK
- Department of Radiology, Manchester University NHS Foundation Trust, Manchester, UK
| | - John Howells
- Department of Radiology, Royal Preston Hospital, Preston, Lancashire, UK
| | - Klaus Irion
- Department of Radiology, Manchester University NHS Foundation Trust, Manchester, UK
| | - Devinda Karunaratne
- Department of Radiology, Manchester University NHS Foundation Trust, Manchester, UK
| | - Judith Lyons
- Manchester Thoracic Oncology Centre, Manchester University NHS Foundation Trust, Manchester, UK
| | - Stuart Mellor
- Department of Radiology, Royal Blackburn Hospital, Blackburn, UK
| | - Amanda Myerscough
- South Manchester Clinical Commissioning Group, Macmillan Cancer Improvement Partnership, Manchester, UK
| | - Tom Newton
- Department of Radiology, Royal Blackburn Hospital, Blackburn, UK
| | - Anna Sharman
- Manchester Thoracic Oncology Centre, Manchester University NHS Foundation Trust, Manchester, UK
- Department of Radiology, Manchester University NHS Foundation Trust, Manchester, UK
| | - Elaine Smith
- Manchester Thoracic Oncology Centre, Manchester University NHS Foundation Trust, Manchester, UK
- Department of Radiology, Manchester University NHS Foundation Trust, Manchester, UK
| | - Ben Taylor
- Department of Radiology, Christie NHS Foundation Trust, Manchester, Manchester, UK
| | - Sarah Taylor
- South Manchester Clinical Commissioning Group, Macmillan Cancer Improvement Partnership, Manchester, UK
- Manchester Health and Care Commissioning, Manchester, UK
| | - Anna Walsham
- Department of Radiology, Salford Royal NHS Foundation Trust, Salford, Salford, UK
| | - James Whittaker
- Department of Radiology, Stockport NHS Foundation Trust, Stockport, Stockport, UK
| | - Phil V Barber
- Manchester Thoracic Oncology Centre, Manchester University NHS Foundation Trust, Manchester, UK
| | - Janet Tonge
- Academic Unit of Primary Care, University of Leeds Leeds Institute of Health Sciences, Leeds, Manchester, UK
| | - Hilary A Robbins
- International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, Rhône-Alpes, France
| | - Richard Booton
- Division of Infection, Immunity and Respiratory Medicine, The University of Manchester, Manchester, UK
- Manchester Thoracic Oncology Centre, Manchester University NHS Foundation Trust, Manchester, UK
- Manchester Academic Health Science Centre, Manchester, Manchester, UK
| | - Philip A J Crosbie
- Division of Infection, Immunity and Respiratory Medicine, The University of Manchester, Manchester, UK
- Prevention and Early Detection Theme, NIHR Manchester Biomedical Research Centre, Manchester, UK
- Manchester Thoracic Oncology Centre, Manchester University NHS Foundation Trust, Manchester, UK
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Robbins HA, Berg CD, Cheung LC, Chaturvedi AK, Katki HA. Identification of Candidates for Longer Lung Cancer Screening Intervals Following a Negative Low-Dose Computed Tomography Result. J Natl Cancer Inst 2020; 111:996-999. [PMID: 30976808 DOI: 10.1093/jnci/djz041] [Citation(s) in RCA: 41] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/03/2018] [Revised: 01/23/2019] [Accepted: 02/22/2019] [Indexed: 12/17/2022] Open
Abstract
Lengthening the annual low-dose computed tomography (CT) screening interval for individuals at lowest risk of lung cancer could reduce harms and improve efficiency. We analyzed 23 328 participants in the National Lung Screening Trial who had a negative CT screen (no ≥4-mm nodules) to develop an individualized model for lung cancer risk after a negative CT. The Lung Cancer Risk Assessment Tool + CT (LCRAT+CT) updates "prescreening risk" (calculated using traditional risk factors) with selected CT features. At the next annual screen following a negative CT, risk of cancer detection was reduced among the 70% of participants with neither CT-detected emphysema nor consolidation (median risk = 0.2%, interquartile range [IQR] = 0.1%-0.3%). However, risk increased for the 30% with CT emphysema (median risk = 0.5%, IQR = 0.3%-0.8%) and the 0.6% with consolidation (median = 1.6%, IQR = 1.0%-2.5%). As one example, a threshold of next-screen risk lower than 0.3% would lengthen the interval for 57.8% of screen-negatives, thus averting 49.8% of next-screen false-positives among screen-negatives but delaying diagnosis for 23.9% of cancers. Our results support that many, but not all, screen-negatives might reasonably lengthen their CT screening interval.
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Larose TL, Meheus F, Brennan P, Johansson M, Robbins HA. Assessment of Biomarker Testing for Lung Cancer Screening Eligibility. JAMA Netw Open 2020; 3:e200409. [PMID: 32134462 PMCID: PMC7059020 DOI: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2020.0409] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/23/2019] [Accepted: 01/06/2020] [Indexed: 12/14/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Tricia L. Larose
- Genetic Epidemiology Group, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
- Department of Public Health and Nursing, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway
| | - Filip Meheus
- Prevention and Implementation Group, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Paul Brennan
- Genetic Epidemiology Group, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Mattias Johansson
- Genetic Epidemiology Group, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Hilary A. Robbins
- Genetic Epidemiology Group, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
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Landy R, Cheung LC, Berg CD, Chaturvedi AK, Robbins HA, Katki HA. Contemporary Implications of U.S. Preventive Services Task Force and Risk-Based Guidelines for Lung Cancer Screening Eligibility in the United States. Ann Intern Med 2019; 171:384-386. [PMID: 31158854 PMCID: PMC6822170 DOI: 10.7326/m18-3617] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/13/2023] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Rebecca Landy
- National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland (R.L., L.C.C., C.D.B., A.K.C., H.A.K.)
| | - Li C Cheung
- National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland (R.L., L.C.C., C.D.B., A.K.C., H.A.K.)
| | - Christine D Berg
- National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland (R.L., L.C.C., C.D.B., A.K.C., H.A.K.)
| | - Anil K Chaturvedi
- National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland (R.L., L.C.C., C.D.B., A.K.C., H.A.K.)
| | - Hilary A Robbins
- International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France (H.A.R.)
| | - Hormuzd A Katki
- National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland (R.L., L.C.C., C.D.B., A.K.C., H.A.K.)
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Robbins HA, Katki HA, Cheung LC, Landy R, Berg CD. Insights for Management of Ground-Glass Opacities From the National Lung Screening Trial. J Thorac Oncol 2019; 14:1662-1665. [PMID: 31125735 PMCID: PMC6909540 DOI: 10.1016/j.jtho.2019.05.012] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/10/2019] [Revised: 04/12/2019] [Accepted: 05/11/2019] [Indexed: 11/20/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND In the National Lung Screening Trial (NLST), screen-detected cancers that would not have been identified by the Lung Computed Tomographic Screening Reporting and Data System (Lung-RADS) nodule management guidelines were frequently ground-glass opacities (GGOs). Lung-RADS suggests that GGOs with diameter less than 20 mm return for annual screening, and GGOs greater than or equal to 20 mm receive 6-month follow-up. We examined whether this 20-mm threshold gives consistent management of GGOs compared with solid nodules. METHODS First, we calculated diameter-specific malignancy probabilities for GGOs and solid nodules in the NLST. Using the solid-nodule malignancy risks as benchmarks, we suggested risk-based management categories for GGOs based on their probability of malignancy. Second, we compared lung-cancer mortality between GGOs and solid nodules in the same risk-based category. RESULTS Using the Lung-RADS v1.0 classifications, malignancy probability is higher for GGOs than solid nodules within the same category. A risk-based classification of GGOs would assign annual screening for GGOs 4 to 5 mm (0.4% malignancy risk); 6-month follow-up for GGOs 6 to 7 mm (1.1%), 8 to 14 mm (3.0%), and 15 to 19 mm (5.2%); and 3-month follow-up for greater than or equal to 20 mm (10.9%). This reclassification would have assigned similarly fatal cancers to 3-month follow-up (hazard ratio = 2.0 for lung-cancer death in GGOs versus solid-nodule cancers, 95% confidence interval: 0.4-8.7), but for 6-month follow-up, mortality was lower in GGO cancers (hazard ratio = 0.18, 95% confidence interval: 0.05-0.67). CONCLUSIONS If Lung-RADS categories for GGOs were based on malignancy probability, then 6- to 19-mm GGOs would receive 6-month follow-up and greater than or equal to 20-mm GGOs would receive 3-month follow-up. Such risk-based management for GGOs could improve the sensitivity of Lung-RADS, especially for large GGO cancers. However, small GGO cancers were less aggressive than their solid-nodule counterparts.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Hormuzd A Katki
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Rockville, Maryland
| | - Li C Cheung
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Rockville, Maryland
| | - Rebecca Landy
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Rockville, Maryland
| | - Christine D Berg
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Rockville, Maryland
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Kreimer AR, Ferreiro-Iglesias A, Nygard M, Bender N, Schroeder L, Hildesheim A, Robbins HA, Pawlita M, Langseth H, Schlecht NF, Tinker LF, Agalliu I, Smoller SW, Ness-Jensen E, Hveem K, D'Souza G, Visvanathan K, May B, Ursin G, Weiderpass E, Giles GG, Milne RL, Cai Q, Blot WJ, Zheng W, Weinstein SJ, Albanes D, Brenner N, Hoffman-Bolton J, Kaaks R, Barricarte A, Tjønneland A, Sacerdote C, Trichopoulou A, Vermeulen RCH, Huang WY, Freedman ND, Brennan P, Waterboer T, Johansson M. Timing of HPV16-E6 antibody seroconversion before OPSCC: findings from the HPVC3 consortium. Ann Oncol 2019; 30:1335-1343. [PMID: 31185496 PMCID: PMC6683856 DOI: 10.1093/annonc/mdz138] [Citation(s) in RCA: 49] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/04/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Human papillomavirus type 16 (HPV16)-E6 antibodies are detectable in peripheral blood before diagnosis in the majority of HPV16-driven oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC), but the timing of seroconversion is unknown. PATIENTS AND METHODS We formed the HPV Cancer Cohort Consortium which comprises nine population cohorts from Europe, North America and Australia. In total, 743 incident OPSCC cases and 5814 controls provided at least one pre-diagnostic blood sample, including 111 cases with multiple samples. Median time between first blood collection and OPSCC diagnosis was 11.4 years (IQR = 6-11 years, range = 0-40 years). Antibodies against HPV16-E6 were measured by multiplex serology (GST fusion protein based Luminex assay). RESULTS HPV16-E6 seropositivity was present in 0.4% of controls (22/5814; 95% CI 0.2% to 0.6%) and 26.2% (195/743; 95% CI 23.1% to 29.6%) of OPSCC cases. HPV16-E6 seropositivity increased the odds of OPSCC 98.2-fold (95% CI 62.1-155.4) in whites and 17.2-fold (95% CI 1.7-170.5) in blacks. Seropositivity in cases was more frequent in recent calendar periods, ranging from 21.9% pre-1996 to 68.4% in 2005 onwards, in those with blood collection near diagnosis (lead time <5 years). HPV16-E6 seropositivity increased with lead time: 0.0%, 13.5%, 23.7%, and 38.9% with lead times of >30 years (N = 24), 20-30 years (N = 148), 10-20 years (N = 228), and <10 years (N = 301 cases) (p-trend < 0.001). Of the 47 HPV16-E6 seropositive cases with serially-collected blood samples, 17 cases seroconverted during follow-up, with timing ranging from 6 to 28 years before diagnosis. For the remaining 30 cases, robust seropositivity was observed up to 25 years before diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS The immune response to HPV16-driven tumorigenesis is most often detectable several decades before OPSCC diagnosis. HPV16-E6 seropositive individuals face increased risk of OPSCC over several decades.
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Affiliation(s)
- A R Kreimer
- Infections and Immunoepidemiology Branch, Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, USA.
| | - A Ferreiro-Iglesias
- Genetic Epidemiology Group (GEP), International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), Lyon, France
| | - M Nygard
- Department of Research, Cancer Registry of Norway, Institute of Population-Based Cancer Research, Oslo, Norway
| | - N Bender
- Infections and Cancer Epidemiology, Research Program Infection, Inflammation and Cancer, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Heidelberg, Germany
| | - L Schroeder
- Infections and Cancer Epidemiology, Research Program Infection, Inflammation and Cancer, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Heidelberg, Germany
| | - A Hildesheim
- Infections and Immunoepidemiology Branch, Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, USA
| | - H A Robbins
- Genetic Epidemiology Group (GEP), International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), Lyon, France
| | - M Pawlita
- Infections and Cancer Epidemiology, Research Program Infection, Inflammation and Cancer, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Heidelberg, Germany
| | - H Langseth
- Department of Research, Cancer Registry of Norway, Institute of Population-Based Cancer Research, Oslo, Norway
| | - N F Schlecht
- Department of Cancer Prevention and Control, Roswell Park Comprehensive Cancer Center, Buffalo; Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, Albert Einstein College of Medicine, Bronx
| | - L F Tinker
- Public Health Sciences, Cancer Prevention Program, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, USA
| | - I Agalliu
- Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, Albert Einstein College of Medicine, Bronx
| | - S W Smoller
- Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, Albert Einstein College of Medicine, Bronx
| | - E Ness-Jensen
- HUNT Research Center, Department of Public Health and Nursing, NTNU, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Levanger, Norway
| | - K Hveem
- HUNT Research Center, Department of Public Health and Nursing, NTNU, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Levanger, Norway
| | - G D'Souza
- Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, USA
| | - K Visvanathan
- Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, USA
| | - B May
- Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, USA
| | - G Ursin
- Cancer Registry of Norway, Institute of Population-Based Cancer Research, Majorstuen, Oslo; Institute of Basic Medical Sciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
| | - E Weiderpass
- Department of Research, Cancer Registry of Norway, Institute of Population-Based Cancer Research, Oslo, Norway; Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institute, Stockholm, Sweden; Genetic Epidemiology Group, Folkhälsan Research Center, and Faculty of Medicine, Helsinki University, Helsinki, Finland; Department of Community Medicine, University of Tromsø, The Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway
| | - G G Giles
- Cancer Epidemiology and Intelligence Division, Cancer Council Victoria, Melbourne; Centre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Parkville; School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University Faculty of Medicine, Nursing and Health Sciences, Monash University, Melbourne
| | - R L Milne
- Cancer Epidemiology and Intelligence Division, Cancer Council Victoria, Melbourne; Centre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Parkville; Precision Medicine, School of Clinical Sciences at Monash Health, Monash University, Clayton, Australia
| | - Q Cai
- Division of Epidemiology, Department of Medicine, Vanderbilt Epidemiology Center, Vanderbilt-Ingram Cancer Center, Vanderbilt University School of Medicine, Nashville, USA
| | - W J Blot
- Division of Epidemiology, Department of Medicine, Vanderbilt Epidemiology Center, Vanderbilt-Ingram Cancer Center, Vanderbilt University School of Medicine, Nashville, USA
| | - W Zheng
- Division of Epidemiology, Department of Medicine, Vanderbilt Epidemiology Center, Vanderbilt-Ingram Cancer Center, Vanderbilt University School of Medicine, Nashville, USA
| | - S J Weinstein
- Infections and Immunoepidemiology Branch, Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, USA
| | - D Albanes
- Infections and Immunoepidemiology Branch, Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, USA
| | - N Brenner
- Infections and Cancer Epidemiology, Research Program Infection, Inflammation and Cancer, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Heidelberg, Germany
| | | | - R Kaaks
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Heidelberg, Germany
| | - A Barricarte
- Navarra Public Health Institute, Pamplona; Navarra Institute for Health Research (IdiSNA), Pamplona; CIBER Epidemiology and Public Health CIBERESP, Madrid, Spain
| | - A Tjønneland
- Danish Cancer Society Research Center, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - C Sacerdote
- Unit of Cancer Epidemiology, Città della Salute e della Scienza University-Hospital and Center for Cancer Prevention (CPO), Turin, Italy
| | | | - R C H Vermeulen
- Institute for Risk Assessment Sciences, Utrecht University; Julius Centre for Public Health Sciences and Primary Care, Utrecht University Medical Centre, Utrecht, the Netherlands
| | - W-Y Huang
- Infections and Immunoepidemiology Branch, Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, USA
| | - N D Freedman
- Infections and Immunoepidemiology Branch, Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, USA
| | - P Brennan
- Genetic Epidemiology Group (GEP), International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), Lyon, France
| | - T Waterboer
- Infections and Cancer Epidemiology, Research Program Infection, Inflammation and Cancer, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Heidelberg, Germany
| | - M Johansson
- Genetic Epidemiology Group (GEP), International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), Lyon, France.
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