International Anal Neoplasia Society's consensus guidelines for anal cancer screening

The International Anal Neoplasia Society (IANS) developed consensus guidelines to inform anal cancer screening use among various high-risk groups. Anal cancer incidence estimates by age among risk groups provided the basis to identify risk thresholds to recommend screening. Guided by risk thresholds, screening initiation at age 35 years was recommended for men who have sex with men (MSM) and transgender women (TW) with HIV. For other people with HIV and MSM and TW not with HIV, screening initiation at age 45 years was recommended. For solid organ transplant recipients, screening initiation beginning from 10 years post-transplant was recommended. For persons with a history of vulvar precancer or cancer, screening initiation was recommended starting within 1 year of diagnosis of vulvar precancer or cancer. Persons aged ≥45 years with a history of cervical/vaginal HSIL or cancer, perianal warts, persistent (>1 year) cervical HPV16, or autoimmune conditions could be considered for screening with shared decision-making, provided there is adequate capacity to perform diagnostic procedures (high-resolution anoscopy [HRA]). Anal cytology, high-risk (hr) human papillomavirus (HPV) testing (including genotyping for HPV16), and hrHPV-cytology co-testing are different strategies currently used for anal cancer screening that show acceptable performance. Thresholds for referral for HRA or follow-up screening tests are delineated. These recommendations from IANS provide the basis to inform management of abnormal screening results, considering currently available screening tools. These guidelines provide a pivotal foundation to help generate consensus among providers and inform the introduction and implementation of risk-targeted screening for anal cancer prevention.

Recommendations for Use of p16/Ki67 Dual Stain for Management of Individuals Testing Positive for Human Papillomavirus

OBJECTIVES

The Enduring Consensus Cervical Cancer Screening and Management Guidelines Committee developed recommendations for dual stain (DS) testing with CINtec PLUS Cytology for use of DS to triage high-risk human papillomavirus (HPV)-positive results.

METHODS

Risks of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 or worse were calculated according to DS results among individuals testing HPV-positive using data from the Kaiser Permanente Northern California cohort and the STudying Risk to Improve DisparitiES study in Mississippi. Management recommendations were based on clinical action thresholds developed for the 2019 American Society for Colposcopy and Cervical Pathology Risk-Based Management Consensus Guidelines. Resource usage metrics were calculated to support decision-making. Risk estimates in relation to clinical action thresholds were reviewed and used as the basis for draft recommendations. After an open comment period, recommendations were finalized and ratified through a vote by the Consensus Stakeholder Group.

RESULTS

For triage of positive HPV results from screening with primary HPV testing (with or without genotyping) or with cytology cotesting, colposcopy is recommended for individuals testing DS-positive. One-year follow-up with HPV-based testing is recommended for individuals testing DS-negative, except for HPV16- and HPV18-positive results, or high-grade cytology in cotesting, where immediate colposcopy referral is recommended. Risk estimates were similar between the Kaiser Permanente Northern California and STudying Risk to Improve DisparitiES populations. In general, resource usage metrics suggest that compared with cytology, DS requires fewer colposcopies and detects cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 or worse earlier.

CONCLUSIONS

Dual stain testing with CINtec PLUS Cytology is acceptable for triage of HPV-positive test results. Risk estimates are portable across different populations.

Enduring Consensus Guidelines for Cervical Cancer Screening and Management: Introduction to the Scope and Process

OBJECTIVES

The Enduring Consensus Cervical Cancer Screening and Management Guidelines (Enduring Guidelines) effort is a standing committee to continuously evaluate new technologies and approaches to cervical cancer screening, management, and surveillance.

METHODS AND RESULTS

The Enduring Guidelines process will selectively incorporate new technologies and approaches with adequate supportive data to more effectively improve cancer prevention for high-risk individuals and decrease unnecessary procedures in low-risk individuals. This manuscript describes the structure, process, and methods of the Enduring Guidelines effort. Using systematic literature reviews and primary data sources, risk of precancer will be estimated and recommendations will be made based on risk estimates in the context of established risk-based clinical action thresholds. The Enduring Guidelines process will consider health equity and health disparities by assuring inclusion of diverse populations in the evidence review and risk assessment and by developing recommendations that provide a choice of well-validated strategies that can be adapted to different settings.

CONCLUSIONS

The Enduring Guidelines process will allow updating existing cervical cancer screening and management guidelines rapidly when new technologies are approved or new scientific evidence becomes available.

Hypertension and risk of endometrial cancer: a pooled analysis in the Epidemiology of Endometrial Cancer Consortium (E2C2)

BACKGROUND

The incidence rates of endometrial cancer (EC) are increasing, which may partly be explained by the rising prevalence of obesity, an established risk factor for EC. Hypertension, another component of metabolic syndrome, is also increasing in prevalence, and emerging evidence suggests that it may be associated with the development of certain cancers. The role of hypertension independent of other components of metabolic syndrome in the etiology of EC remains unclear. In this study we evaluated hypertension as an independent risk factor for EC and whether this association is modified by other established risk factors.

METHODS

We included 15,631 EC cases and 42,239 controls matched on age, race, and study-specific factors from 29 studies in the Epidemiology of Endometrial Cancer Consortium. We used multivariable unconditional logistic regression models to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) to evaluate the association between hypertension and EC and whether this association differed by study design, race/ethnicity, body mass index, diabetes status, smoking status, or reproductive factors.

RESULTS

Hypertension was associated with an increased risk of EC (OR=1.14, 95% CI:1.09-1.19). There was significant heterogeneity by study design (Phet<0.01), with a stronger magnitude of association observed among case-control vs. cohort studies. Stronger associations were also noted for pre-/peri-menopausal women and never users of postmenopausal hormone therapy.

CONCLUSIONS

Hypertension is associated with EC risk independently from known risk factors. Future research should focus on biologic mechanisms underlying this association.

IMPACT

This study provides evidence that hypertension may be an independent risk factor for EC.

Interobserver reproducibility of cervical histology interpretation with and without p16 immunohistochemistry

OBJECTIVES

Histopathological diagnosis of colposcopically identified cervical lesions is a critical step for the recognition of cervical cancer precursors requiring treatment. Although there have been efforts to standardize the histologic diagnosis of cervical biopsy specimens, in terms of terminology and use of biomarkers, there is no uniform approach in the pathology community. Adjunctive p16 immunohistochemistry (IHC) can highlight precancer diagnoses, with use recommendations outlined by the Lower Anogenital Squamous Terminology project.

METHODS

We assessed the diagnostic reproducibility of cervical histopathological biopsy specimens with and without p16 staining among 2 expert pathologists.

RESULTS

Interpretation of p16 IHC as positive vs negative was highly reproducible (92.5% agreement, κ = 0.85); greater variation was seen in the choice of which biopsy specimens required adjunctive p16 staining (78.0% agreement, κ = 0.43). Adjunctive p16 IHC did not significantly increase diagnostic agreement under multitiered grading systems (benign vs cervical intraepithelial neoplasia [CIN] 1/low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion vs atypical squamous metaplasia vs CIN2/high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion [HSIL] vs CIN3/HSIL-CIN3 vs cancer) (65.5% agreement, κ = 0.56 without p16; 70.0% agreement, κ = 0.58 with p16). However, when dichotomizing diagnoses based on clinical management (less than HSIL vs HSIL+), diagnostic agreement increased with p16 IHC (90.5% agreement, κ = 0.79 without p16; 92.0% agreement, κ = 0.84 with p16). For biopsy specimens taken from women positive for human papillomavirus (HPV) type 16, agreement was similar with or without adjunctive p16 (κ = 0.80 without p16; κ = 0.78-0.80 with p16). In contrast, p16 IHC substantially improved diagnostic agreement for cervical biopsy specimens taken from women positive for other high-risk HPV strains, producing improvements in κ from 0.03 to 0.24.

CONCLUSIONS

Adjunctive p16 immunostaining provides useful information in the evaluation of cervical biopsies for precancer. In our study, we have demonstrated that it is highly reproducible between 2 pathologists, although the decision of which biopsies warrant its use is less so. Furthermore, although p16 IHC showed a limited increase in diagnostic reproducibility for all biopsies included in our study, it did demonstrate a more sizable gain in biopsies negative for HPV 16 but positive for other high-risk genotypes. Further studies are needed to clarify the role of p16 IHC and how it can be optimized for the detection of cervical precancer, particularly in HPV-vaccinated populations where types other than HPV 16 are relatively more important.

State of the science and future directions for research on HIV and cancer: Summary of a joint workshop sponsored by IARC and NCI

An estimated 38 million people live with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) worldwide and are at excess risk for multiple cancer types. Elevated cancer risks in people living with HIV (PLWH) are driven primarily by increased exposure to carcinogens, most notably oncogenic viruses acquired through shared transmission routes, plus acceleration of viral carcinogenesis by HIV-related immunosuppression. In the era of widespread antiretroviral therapy (ART), life expectancy of PLWH has increased, with cancer now a leading cause of co-morbidity and death. Furthermore, the types of cancers occurring among PLWH are shifting over time and vary in their relative burden in different parts of the world. In this context, the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) and the US National Cancer Institute (NCI) convened a meeting in September 2022 of multinational and multidisciplinary experts to focus on cancer in PLWH. This report summarizes the proceedings, including a review of the state of the science of cancer descriptive epidemiology, etiology, molecular tumor characterization, primary and secondary prevention, treatment disparities and survival in PLWH around the world. A consensus of key research priorities and recommendations in these domains is also presented.

Evaluation of Follow-up Colposcopy Procedures After Abnormal Cervical Screening Result Across a Statewide Study in Mississippi

Purpose

Cervical screening is used to detect and treat precancers to prevent invasive cancers. However, successful prevention also requires adequate follow-up and treatment of individuals with abnormal screening results. The aim was to investigate demographics, clinical characteristics, and follow-up status for individuals needing colposcopy after an abnormal screening result.

Methods

The STRIDES (Studying Risk to Improve DisparitiES) cohort comprises individuals undergoing cervical cancer screening and management at a Mississippi Health Department or University of Mississippi clinic. Follow-up status, demographics, and clinical data were assessed from electronic health records and, if necessary, patient navigation on individuals identified as needing a colposcopy after an abnormal screening.

Results

Of the 1,458 individuals requiring colposcopy, 43.0% had the procedure within 4 months, 16.4% had a delayed procedure, and 39.5% had no documented follow-up, with significant predictors of follow-up identified as age and cytology diagnosis. Based on age, individuals 30 + were more likely to follow up with a colposcopy compared to individuals < 30 years (49% and 38.7%, respectively; p < .001). Individuals with cytology diagnoses of LSIL (52.9%), ASC-H (51.4%), and HSIL (62.3%) had higher percentages of adherence to follow-up colposcopy guidelines (p < .001).

Conclusion

Despite high cervical cancer screening rates among Mississippians, a substantial portion did not have adequate next-step intervention. However, it is encouraging that highest risk individuals were more likely to have a colposcopy. Regardless, continuing to understand the underlying causes for incomplete follow-up is crucial for timely secondary targeted interventions to reduce cervical cancer burden, promote awareness, and improve health outcomes.

Autoimmune disease and the risk of anal cancer in the US population aged 66 years and over

BACKGROUND

In the United States, anal squamous cell carcinoma rates have increased rapidly, particularly among women 50 or older than 66 years of age. As immunosuppression is associated with increased risk, autoimmune conditions may be associated with greater risk of anal squamous cell carcinoma.

METHODS

We conducted a population-based, case-control study using Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results-Medicare data (2000-2017). Anal squamous cell carcinoma cases (n = 4505) were matched to 200 000 cancer-free controls. Using multivariable logistic regression, we calculated odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for associations between 47 autoimmune conditions diagnosed before selection, identified using Medicare claims, and anal squamous cell carcinoma. The Bonferroni threshold was used to correct for multiple comparisons. Population attributable fractions were calculated for conditions nominally associated with anal squamous cell carcinoma.

RESULTS

In total, 18% of anal squamous cell carcinoma cases and 15% of cancer-free controls had a diagnosed autoimmune condition. Any autoimmune condition was associated with an increased risk of anal squamous cell carcinoma (OR = 1.11, 95% CI = 1.02 to 1.21; population attributable fraction = 1.8%). Anal squamous cell carcinoma was associated with systemic lupus erythematosus (OR = 1.79, 95% CI = 1.32 to 2.42; population attributable fraction = 0.4%) and nominally associated (P < .05) with sarcoidosis (OR = 2.09, 95% CI = 1.30 to 3.37; population-attributable fraction = 0.2%) and psoriasis (OR = 1.28, 95% CI = 1.06 to 1.56; population attributable fraction = 0.5%). Stratified by sex, only women showed statistically significant associations for systemic lupus erythematosus (OR = 1.97, 95% CI = 1.46 to 2.68). Statistically significant interaction was observed by sex for psoriasis (men vs women: OR = 1.68 [95% CI = 1.03 to 4.28] vs OR = 1.12 [95% CI = 0.88 to 1.43]) and polymyalgia rheumatica (OR = 0.33 [95% CI = 0.12 to 0.89] vs OR = 0.99 [95% CI = 0.75 to 1.30]).

CONCLUSION

Systemic lupus erythematosus, sarcoidosis, and psoriasis were associated with a moderately increased risk of anal squamous cell carcinoma. Given these conditions' rarity and moderate associations with anal squamous cell carcinoma, autoimmune diseases cannot explain the rising trend in this disease.

Calendar-period trends in cervical precancer and cancer diagnoses since the introduction of human papillomavirus and cytology co-testing into routine cervical cancer screening at Kaiser Permanente Northern California

OBJECTIVES

The longer-term impact of introducing human papillomavirus (HPV) testing into routine cervical cancer screening on precancer and cancer rates by histologic type has not been well described. Calendar trends in diagnoses were examined using data from Kaiser Permanente Northern California, which introduced triennial HPV and cytology co-testing in 2003 for women aged ≥30 years.

METHODS

We examined trends in cervical precancer (cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 [CIN3] and adenocarcinoma in situ [AIS]) and cancer (squamous cell carcinoma [SCC] and adenocarcinoma [ADC]) diagnoses per 1000 screened during 2003-2018. We examined ratios of squamous vs. glandular diagnoses (SCC:ADC and CIN3:AIS).

RESULTS

CIN3 and AIS diagnoses increased approximately 2% and 3% annually, respectively (ptrend < 0.001 for both). While SCC diagnoses decreased by 5% per annually (ptrend < 0.001), ADC diagnoses did not change. These patterns were generally observed within each age group (30-39, 40-49, and 50-64 years). ADC diagnoses per 1000 screened did not change even among those who underwent co-testing starting in 2003-2006. SCC:ADC decreased from approximately 2.5:1 in 2003-2006 to 1.3:1 in 2015-2018 while the CIN3:AIS remained relatively constant, ∼10:1.

CONCLUSIONS

Since its introduction at KPNC, co-testing increased the detection of CIN3 over time, which likely caused a subsequent reduction of SCC. However, there has been no observed decrease in ADC. One possible explanation for lack of effectiveness against ADC is the underdiagnosis of AIS. Novel strategies to identify and treat women at high risk of ADC need to be developed and clinically validated.

Severe anal intraepithelial neoplasia trends and subsequent invasive anal cancer in the United States

BACKGROUND

Anal intraepithelial neoplasia grade III is a precursor to squamous cell carcinoma of the anus for which rates are nearly 20-fold higher in people with HIV than in the general population in the United States. We describe trends in anal intraepithelial neoplasia grade III diagnosis and risk of squamous cell carcinoma of the anus following anal intraepithelial neoplasia grade III by HIV status and sex.

METHODS

We used data from a population-based linkage between cancer and HIV registries in 11 US states; Puerto Rico; and Washington, DC, during 1996-2019. We identified all individuals with a diagnosis of anal intraepithelial neoplasia grade III and determined their HIV status. We estimated the average annual percentage change of anal intraepithelial neoplasia grade III using Poisson regression stratified by HIV status and sex. We estimated the 5-year cumulative incidence of squamous cell carcinoma of the anus following an anal intraepithelial neoplasia grade III diagnosis stratified by sex, HIV status, and prior AIDS diagnosis.

RESULTS

Among people with HIV, average annual percentage changes for anal intraepithelial neoplasia grade III were 15% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 12% to 17%) per year among females and 12% (95% CI = 11% to 14%) among males. Average annual percentage changes for those without HIV were 8% (95% CI = 7% to 8%) for females and 8% (95% CI = 6% to 9%) for males. Among people with HIV, a prior AIDS diagnosis was associated with a 2.7-fold (95% CI = 2.23 to 3.40) and 1.9-fold (95% CI = 1.72 to 2.02) increased risk of anal intraepithelial neoplasia grade III diagnosis for females and males, respectively. Five-year cumulative incidence of squamous cell carcinoma of the anus following anal intraepithelial neoplasia grade III for people with HIV with a prior AIDS diagnosis were 3.4% and 3.7% for females and males, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Rates of anal intraepithelial neoplasia grade III diagnoses have increased since 1996, particularly for people with HIV, likely influenced by increased screening. A prior AIDS diagnosis was strongly associated with risk of anal intraepithelial neoplasia grade III diagnosis.

Survival by sex and HIV status in patients with anal cancer in the USA between 2001 and 2019: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

The risk of anal cancer is increased among people with HIV, particularly men who have sex with men. Estimating survival by HIV status and sex and identifying groups at high risk is crucial for documenting prognostic differences between populations. We aimed to compare all-cause and anal cancer-specific survival in patients with anal cancer with and without HIV, stratified by sex, and to identify predictors of survival, stratified by HIV status.

METHODS

In this retrospective cohort study, we used data from the HIV/AIDS Cancer Match Study of 13 population-based HIV and cancer registries throughout the USA. We included individuals aged 20-79 years diagnosed with invasive anal cancer between 2001 and 2019. To estimate associations between HIV status and both all-cause and anal cancer-specific mortality overall, we used Cox proportional hazards models, adjusting for year of and age at diagnosis, sex, race and ethnicity, histology, cancer stage, region, and treatment. We also calculated sex-specific adjusted hazard ratios (HRs). By HIV status, we identified characteristics associated with mortality. Models among people with HIV were further adjusted for AIDS status and HIV transmission risk group.

FINDINGS

Between Jan 1, 2001, and Dec 31, 2019, 1161 (43·6%) of 2662 patients with anal cancer and HIV and 7722 (35·4%) of 21 824 patients without HIV died. HIV was associated with a 1·35 times (95% CI 1·24-1·47) increase in all-cause mortality among male patients and a 2·47 times (2·10-2·90) increase among female patients. Among patients with HIV, all-cause mortality was increased among non-Hispanic Black individuals (adjusted HR 1·19, 95% CI 1·04-1·38), people with AIDS (1·36, 1·10-1·68), people who inject drugs (PWID; 1·49, 1·17-1·90), patients with adenocarcinoma (2·74, 1·82-4·13), and those with no or unknown surgery treatment (1·34, 1·18-1·53). HIV was associated with anal cancer-specific mortality among female patients only (1·52, 1·18-1·97). Among patients with HIV, anal cancer-specific mortality was increased among patients with adenocarcinoma (3·29, 1·89-5·72), those with no or unknown treatment (1·59, 1·17-2·17), and PWID (1·60, 1·05-2·44).

INTERPRETATION

HIV was associated with all-cause mortality among patients with anal cancer, especially women. Anal cancer-specific mortality was elevated among female patients with HIV. As screening for anal cancer becomes more widespread, examining the effects of screening on survival by HIV status and sex is crucial.

FUNDING

US National Cancer Institute Intramural Research Program.

A novel human papillomavirus and host DNA methylation score and detection of cervical adenocarcinoma

BACKGROUND

The widespread introduction of Pap testing in the 1960s was followed by substantial reductions in the incidence of cervical squamous cell cancer (SCC). However, the incidence of cervical adenocarcinoma (ADC) did not decrease, likely because of low Pap test sensitivity for ADC and adenocarcinoma in situ (AIS). This study assessed a novel human papillomavirus (HPV) and host DNA Methylation Score for AIS and ADC screening.

METHODS

We measured methylation levels at CpG sites in the L2/L1 open reading frames of HPV16, HPV18, and HPV45-as well as 2 human loci, DCC and HS3ST2. Specifically, we tested exfoliated cervicovaginal cells from women in the HPV Persistence and Progression (PaP) cohort who were positive for 1 of HPV16, 18, or 45, including: 1) 176 with AIS/ADC, 2) 353 with cervical intraepithelial neoplasia-3 (CIN3) or SCC, and 3) controls who either cleared (HPV-Clearers; n = 579) or had persistent HPV16, 18, or 45 infection (HPV-Persisters; n = 292). CpG site-specific methylation percentages were measured using our reported next-generation methods. The Methylation Score was the average methylation percentage across all 35 CpG sites tested.

RESULTS

Each individual CpG site had higher methylation percentages in exfoliated cervicovaginal cells collected from patients with AIS/ADC, and as well as those with CIN3/SCC, relative to either control group (weakest P  = .004). The Methylation Score for AIS/ADC had a sensitivity of 74% and specificity of 89%. The multivariate odds ratio (OR) between the Methylation Score (4th vs 1st quartile) for AIS/ADC was ORq4-q1 = 49.01 (PBenjamini-Hochberg = 4.64E-12), using HPV-Clearers as controls. CIN3/SCC had similar, albeit weaker, associations with the Methylation Score.

CONCLUSIONS

HPV16/18/45-infected women with Methylation Scores in the highest quartile had very high odds of AIS/ADC, suggesting they may warrant careful histologic evaluation of the cervical transition zone (eg, conization or loop electrosurgical excision procedure [LEEP]).

Night shift work, sleep duration and endometrial cancer risk: A pooled analysis from the Epidemiology of Endometrial Cancer Consortium (E2C2)

Data on the role of circadian related factors in the etiology of endometrial cancer are scarce. We collected individual data on night shift work or daily sleep duration from 7,207 cases and 22,027 controls participating in 11 studies from the Epidemiology of Endometrial Cancer Consortium (E2C2). Main analyses were performed among postmenopausal women: 6,335 endometrial cancer cases and 18,453 controls. Using individual data, study-specific odd ratios (ORs) and their corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated with logistic regression and pooled analyses were conducted using random-effects meta-analyses. A non-significant inverse association was observed between endometrial cancer and night shift work (OR=0.89, 95%CI=0.72-1.09; I2=0.0%, Pheterogeneity=0.676). Associations did not vary by shift type (permanent or rotating), or duration of night work. Categorizations of short (<7h) or long (≥9h) sleep duration were not associated with endometrial cancer risk (ORshort=1.02, 95%CI=0.95-1.10; I2=55.3%, Pheterogeneity=0.022; ORlong=0.93, 95%CI=0.81-1.06; I2=11.5%, Pheterogeneity=0.339). No associations were observed per 1-h increment of sleep (OR=0.98, 95%CI=0.95-1.01; I2=46.1%, Pheterogeneity=0.063), but an inverse association was identified among obese women (OR=0.93, 95%CI=0.89-0.98 per 1-h increment; I2=12.7%, Pheterogeneity=0.329). Overall, these pooled analyses provide evidence that night shift work and sleep duration are not strong risk factors for endometrial cancer in postmenopausal women.

Anal Cancer and Anal Cancer Screening

This chapter provides an overview of anal cancer and contemporary approaches for anal precancer detection, beginning with a discussion of the biology and natural history of anal squamous cell carcinoma, the predominant human papillomavirus -associated histologic subtype of anal cancer. This section is followed by a description of the epidemiology of anal cancer, including trends in incidence and mortality, a discussion of populations with elevated risk for anal cancer and an overview of associated risk factors. The remainder of the chapter provides the most up-to-date evidence on tools and approaches for anal cancer prevention, screening, and early detection; including, the role of human papillomavirus vaccination for primary prevention; anal cytology, high resolution anoscopy and novel biomarkers for secondary prevention; and digital anal-rectal examination for early detection.

HPV Testing and its Role in Cervical Cancer Screening

The recognition that persistent infection with carcinogenic human papillomavirus (HPV) is a necessary cause of cervical precancer and cancer has led to the introduction of HPV testing into cervical cancer screening, either as a primary screening test or in conjunction with cervical cytology (i.e., co-testing). HPV testing has much higher sensitivity for detection of cervical precancer and provides greater long-term reassurance if negative compared to cytology. However, most HPV infections are transient, and do not progress to invasive cancer, thus triage tests are required to identify individuals who should be referred to colposcopy for diagnostic evaluation. This chapter begins with a description of the biology, natural history, and epidemiology of HPV as a foundation for understanding the role of HPV in cervical carcinogenesis. This section is followed by a detailed discussion regarding the introduction of HPV-based testing and triage into cervical cancer screening and management. Summarized triage tests include cervical cytology, HPV genotyping, p16/Ki-67 dual stain, and HPV and cellular methylation markers. The final section of this chapter includes an important discussion on cervical cancer disparities, particularly within the United States, followed by concluding remarks.

CNN stability training improves robustness to scanner and IHC-based image variability for epithelium segmentation in cervical histology

Background

In digital pathology, image properties such as color, brightness, contrast and blurriness may vary based on the scanner and sample preparation. Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) are sensitive to these variations and may underperform on images from a different domain than the one used for training. Robustness to these image property variations is required to enable the use of deep learning in clinical practice and large scale clinical research.

Aims

CNN Stability Training (CST) is proposed and evaluated as a method to increase CNN robustness to scanner and Immunohistochemistry (IHC)-based image variability.

Methods

CST was applied to segment epithelium in immunohistological cervical Whole Slide Images (WSIs). CST randomly distorts input tiles and factors the difference between the CNN prediction for the original and distorted inputs within the loss function. CNNs were trained using 114 p16-stained WSIs from the same scanner, and evaluated on 6 WSI test sets, each with 23 to 24 WSIs of the same tissue but different scanner/IHC combinations. Relative robustness (rAUC) was measured as the difference between the AUC on the training domain test set (i.e., baseline test set) and the remaining test sets.

Results

Across all test sets, The AUC of CST models outperformed "No CST" models (AUC: 0.940-0.989 vs. 0.905-0.986, p < 1e - 8), and obtained an improved robustness (rAUC: [-0.038, -0.003] vs. [-0.081, -0.002]). At a WSI level, CST models showed an increase in performance in 124 of the 142 WSIs. CST models also outperformed models trained with random on-the-fly data augmentation (DA) in all test sets ([0.002, 0.021], p < 1e-6).

Conclusion

CST offers a path to improve CNN performance without the need for more data and allows customizing distortions to specific use cases. A python implementation of CST is publicly available at https://github.com/TIGACenter/CST_v1.

Risk prediction models for endometrial cancer: development and validation in an international consortium

BACKGROUND

Endometrial cancer risk stratification may help target interventions, screening, or prophylactic hysterectomy to mitigate the rising burden of this cancer. However, existing prediction models have been developed in select cohorts and have not considered genetic factors.

METHODS

We developed endometrial cancer risk prediction models using data on postmenopausal White women aged 45-85 years from 19 case-control studies in the Epidemiology of Endometrial Cancer Consortium (E2C2). Relative risk estimates for predictors were combined with age-specific endometrial cancer incidence rates and estimates for the underlying risk factor distribution. We externally validated the models in 3 cohorts: Nurses' Health Study (NHS), NHS II, and the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian (PLCO) Cancer Screening Trial.

RESULTS

Area under the receiver operating characteristic curves for the epidemiologic model ranged from 0.64 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.62 to 0.67) to 0.69 (95% CI = 0.66 to 0.72). Improvements in discrimination from the addition of genetic factors were modest (no change in area under the receiver operating characteristic curves in NHS; PLCO = 0.64 to 0.66). The epidemiologic model was well calibrated in NHS II (overall expected-to-observed ratio [E/O] = 1.09, 95% CI = 0.98 to 1.22) and PLCO (overall E/O = 1.04, 95% CI = 0.95 to 1.13) but poorly calibrated in NHS (overall E/O = 0.55, 95% CI = 0.51 to 0.59).

CONCLUSIONS

Using data from the largest, most heterogeneous study population to date (to our knowledge), prediction models based on epidemiologic factors alone successfully identified women at high risk of endometrial cancer. Genetic factors offered limited improvements in discrimination. Further work is needed to refine this tool for clinical or public health practice and expand these models to multiethnic populations.

Detection of endometrial cancer using tampon-based collection and methylated DNA markers

OBJECTIVE

Alterations in DNA methylation are early events in endometrial cancer (EC) development and may have utility in EC detection via tampon-collected vaginal fluid.

METHODS

For discovery, DNA from frozen EC, benign endometrium (BE), and benign cervicovaginal (BCV) tissues underwent reduced representation bisulfite sequencing (RRBS) to identify differentially methylated regions (DMRs). Candidate DMRs were selected based on receiver operating characteristic (ROC) discrimination, methylation level fold-change between cancers and controls, and absence of background CpG methylation. Methylated DNA marker (MDM) validation was performed using qMSP on DNA from independent EC and BE FFPE tissue sets. Women ≥45 years of age with abnormal uterine bleeding (AUB) or postmenopausal bleeding (PMB) or any age with biopsy-proven EC self-collected vaginal fluid using a tampon prior to clinically indicated endometrial sampling or hysterectomy. Vaginal fluid DNA was assayed by qMSP for EC-associated MDMs. Random forest modeling analysis was performed to generate predictive probability of underlying disease; results were 500-fold in-silico cross-validated.

RESULTS

Thirty-three candidate MDMs met performance criteria in tissue. For the tampon pilot, 100 EC cases were frequency matched by menopausal status and tampon collection date to 92 BE controls. A 28-MDM panel highly discriminated between EC and BE (96% (95%CI 89-99%) specificity; 76% (66-84%) sensitivity (AUC 0.88). In PBS/EDTA tampon buffer, the panel yielded 96% (95% CI 87-99%) specificity and 82% (70-91%) sensitivity (AUC 0.91).

CONCLUSION

Next generation methylome sequencing, stringent filtering criteria, and independent validation yielded excellent candidate MDMs for EC. EC-associated MDMs performed with promisingly high sensitivity and specificity in tampon-collected vaginal fluid; PBS-based tampon buffer with added EDTA improved sensitivity. Larger tampon-based EC MDM testing studies are warranted.

Associations of life course obesity with endometrial cancer in the Epidemiology of Endometrial Cancer Consortium (E2C2)

BACKGROUND

Adult obesity is a strong risk factor for endometrial cancer (EC); however, associations of early life obesity with EC are inconclusive. We evaluated associations of young adulthood (18-21 years) and adulthood (at enrolment) body mass index (BMI) and weight change with EC risk in the Epidemiology of Endometrial Cancer Consortium (E2C2).

METHODS

We pooled data from nine case-control and 11 cohort studies in E2C2. We performed multivariable logistic regression analyses to estimate odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) for BMI (kg/m2) in young adulthood and adulthood, with adjustment for BMI in adulthood and young adulthood, respectively. We evaluated categorical changes in weight (5-kg increments) and BMI from young adulthood to adulthood, and stratified analyses by histology, menopausal status, race and ethnicity, hormone replacement therapy (HRT) use and diabetes.

RESULTS

We included 14 859 cases and 40 859 controls. Obesity in adulthood (OR = 2.85, 95% CI = 2.47-3.29) and young adulthood (OR = 1.26, 95% CI = 1.06-1.50) were positively associated with EC risk. Weight gain and BMI gain were positively associated with EC; weight loss was inversely associated with EC. Young adulthood obesity was more strongly associated with EC among cases diagnosed with endometrioid histology, those who were pre/perimenopausal, non-Hispanic White and non-Hispanic Black, among never HRT users and non-diabetics.

CONCLUSIONS

Young adulthood obesity is associated with EC risk, even after accounting for BMI in adulthood. Weight gain is also associated with EC risk, whereas weight loss is inversely associated. Achieving and maintaining a healthy weight over the life course is important for EC prevention efforts.

Racial and Ethnic Disparities in Cervical Cancer Incidence, Survival, and Mortality by Histologic Subtype

PURPOSE

We conducted an integrated population-based analysis of histologic subtype-specific cervical cancer incidence, survival, and incidence-based mortality by race and ethnicity, with correction for hysterectomy prevalence.

METHODS

Using the SEER 21 and 18 registries, we selected primary cases of malignant cervical cancer diagnosed among women ≥ 15 years. We evaluated age-adjusted incidence rates among cases diagnosed between 2000 and 2018 (SEER21) and incidence-based mortality rates among deaths from 2005 to 2018 (SEER18), per 100,000 person-years. Rates were stratified by histologic subtype and race/ethnicity (incidence and mortality), and stage, age at diagnosis, and county-level measures of social determinants of health (incidence only). Incidence and mortality rates were corrected for hysterectomy using data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System. We estimated 5-year relative survival by histologic subtype and stratified by stage at diagnosis.

RESULTS

Incidence rates of cervical squamous cell carcinoma were highest in Black and Hispanic women, while incidence rates of cervical adenocarcinoma (ADC) were highest among Hispanic and White women, particularly for localized ADC. County-level income and education variables were inversely associated with squamous cell carcinoma incidence rates in all racial and ethnic groups but had less influence on ADC incidence rates. Black women had the highest overall mortality rates and lowest 5-year relative survival, irrespective of subtype and stage. Disparities in survival were particularly pronounced for Black women with regional and distant ADC, compared with other racial/ethnic groups.

CONCLUSION

Although Black women are less likely to be diagnosed with ADC compared with all other racial/ethnic groups, they experience the highest mortality rates for this subtype, likely attributed to the poor survival observed for Black women with regional and distant ADC.

Using Natural Language Processing to Improve Discrete Data Capture From Interpretive Cervical Biopsy Diagnoses at a Large Health Care Organization

CONTEXT.—

The terminology used by pathologists to describe and grade dysplasia and premalignant changes of the cervical epithelium has evolved over time. Unfortunately, coexistence of different classification systems combined with nonstandardized interpretive text has created multiple layers of interpretive ambiguity.

OBJECTIVE.—

To use natural language processing (NLP) to automate and expedite translation of interpretive text to a single most severe, and thus actionable, cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) diagnosis.

DESIGN.—

We developed and applied NLP algorithms to 35 847 unstructured cervical pathology reports and assessed NLP performance in identifying the most severe diagnosis, compared to expert manual review. NLP performance was determined by calculating precision, recall, and F score.

RESULTS.—

The NLP algorithms yielded a precision of 0.957, a recall of 0.925, and an F score of 0.94. Additionally, we estimated that the time to evaluate each monthly biopsy file was significantly reduced, from 30 hours to 0.5 hours.

CONCLUSIONS.—

A set of validated NLP algorithms applied to pathology reports can rapidly and efficiently assign a discrete, actionable diagnosis using CIN classification to assist with clinical management of cervical pathology and disease. Moreover, discrete diagnostic data encoded as CIN terminology can enhance the efficiency of clinical research.

Abstract B008: Autoimmune disease and the risk of anal cancer in the U.S. elderly population

Background: Recently, anal squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) has increased rapidly over time, particularly among older women. As immunosuppression is associated with increased anal cancer risk, a parallel increase in autoimmune conditions may be contributing to this rising trend. Methods: We conducted a population-based case-control study using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)-Medicare linked database (years 2000-2017). Cases were individuals with first anal SCC diagnosed in SEER registries (N=4,505) and 199,566 cancer-free controls from a 5% random sample of Medicare beneficiaries. Using logistic regression, we calculated odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI) for associations with 47 autoimmune conditions identified via Medicare claims. Models were adjusted for age (continuous), sex, race (white, others), year of selection (quartiles), average number of physician claims per year (quartiles), medicare coverage months (quartiles) and smoking status. The false discovery rate was used to correct for multiple comparisons. Results: 18% of cases and 15% of controls had any autoimmune condition diagnosed. Having any autoimmune condition was associated with an increased risk of anal SCC (OR 1.12, 95%CI 1.03-1.22). The strongest risk estimates were for sarcoidosis (OR 1.97, 95%CI 1.22-3.19), followed by systemic lupus erythematosus (1.86, 1.38-2.52) and psoriasis (1.31, 1.08-1.58). Stratified by sex, only women showed significant associations for systemic lupus erythematosus (OR 2.05, 95%CI 1.51-2.78) and men with psoriasis (1.72, 1.25-2.35) and polymyalgia rheumatica (0.33, 0.12-0.89). Conclusion: To date, this is the largest study of anal SCC exploring its association with autoimmunity, especially in this understudied old population. We report a weak to moderately increased risk of certain autoimmune diseases with anal SCC. Some associations differed by sex. Impact/Significance: Understanding the mechanism by which autoimmune diseases increase cancer anal cancer risk may guide better prevention and treatment strategies. Given the rarity of these conditions and their moderate associations with anal cancer, clinical diagnosis of autoimmune diseases cannot explain the rising trend in anal cancer. Future studies are warranted in addressing the underdiagnosis of these autoimmune conditions to better quantify the burden.

Citation Format: Minkyo Song, Eric A. Engels, Megan A. Clarke, Aimée R. Kreimer, Meredith S. Shiels. Autoimmune disease and the risk of anal cancer in the U.S. elderly population [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the AACR Special Conference: Aging and Cancer; 2022 Nov 17-20; San Diego, CA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2022;83(2 Suppl_1):Abstract nr B008.

Clinical utility of p16/Ki67 dual-stain cytology for detection of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade two or worse in women with a transformation zone type 3: A cross-sectional study

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the clinical utility of p16/Ki67 dual-stain (DS) compared with cytology for detecting cervical intraepithelial lesion grade two or worse (CIN2+) in women with a transformation zone type 3 (TZ3).

DESIGN

Cross-sectional study.

SETTING

Colposcopy clinics in Central Denmark Region.

POPULATION

Women aged 45 years or older referred for colposcopy because of an abnormal screening test.

METHODS

All women had a cervical sample collected for cytology and DS testing and underwent large-loop excision of the transformation zone (LLETZ).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Sensitivity, specificity and negative (NPV) and positive (PPV) predictive values of DS for CIN2+ detection were compared to those of cytology.

RESULTS

Of 166 women eligible, 93 (56.0%) were included in the final analysis. Median age was 68 years (interquartile range [IQR] 63.4-70.5 years). Most women were postmenopausal (95.7%) and referred based on a positive human papillomavirus screening test (86.0%). Fifty-two women (55.9%) were DS-positive, 29 (55.8%) of whom had CIN2+ detected. Twenty-seven (29.0%) women had atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance or worse (ASC-US+), and CIN2+ was detected in 21 women (77.8%). DS had a higher sensitivity (96.7% versus 70.0% p = 0.021) and NPV (97.6% versus 86.4%, p = 0.018) compared with cytology for CIN2+ detection. In contrast, the specificity (63.5% versus 90.5% p < 0.001) and PPV (55.8% versus 77.8%, p = 0.001) were lower for DS compared with cytology.

CONCLUSIONS

Dual stain may be a valuable risk marker to guide clinical management of women with a TZ3. The superior NPV of DS suggests that a diagnostic excision may safely be avoided in DS-negative women.

Cervical Cancer Incidence Among US Women, 2001-2019

This study uses national cancer incidence data to evaluate calendar trends in cervical cancer incidence by age at diagnosis.

A systematic review and meta-analysis of cytology and HPV-related biomarkers for anal cancer screening among different risk groups

To inform optimal approaches for detecting anal precancers, we performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of the diagnostic accuracy of anal cancer screening tests in different populations with elevated risk for anal cancer. We conducted a literature search of studies evaluating tests for anal precancer and cancer (anal intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 or worse, AIN2+) published between January 1, 1997 to September 30, 2021 in PubMed and Embase. Titles and abstracts were screened for inclusion and included articles underwent full-text review, data abstraction and quality assessment. We estimated the prevalence of AIN2+ and calculated summary estimates and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of test positivity, sensitivity and specificity and predictive values of various testing strategies, overall and among population subgroups. A total of 39 articles were included. The prevalence of AIN2+ was 20% (95% CI, 17-29%), and ranged from 22% in men who have sex with men (MSM) living with HIV to 13% in women and 12% in MSM without HIV. The sensitivity and specificity of cytology and HPV testing were 81% and 62% and 92% and 42%, respectively, and 93% and 33%, respectively for cytology and HPV co-testing. AIN2+ risks were similar among those testing positive for cytology, HPV, or co-testing. Limited data on other biomarkers (HPV E6/E7 mRNA and p16/Ki-67 dual stain), suggested higher specificity, but lower sensitivity compared with anal cytology and HPV. Our findings provide important evidence for the development of clinical guidelines using anal cytology and HPV testing for anal cancer screening.

Trends and predictors of hysterectomy prevalence among women in the United States

BACKGROUND

Hysterectomy is the most common nonobstetrical medical procedure performed in US women. Evaluating hysterectomy prevalence trends and determinants is important for estimating gynecologic cancer rates and management of uterine conditions.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to assess hysterectomy prevalence trends and determinants using the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (2006-2016).

STUDY DESIGN

We estimated crude hysterectomy prevalences and multivariable-adjusted odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for associations of race or ethnicity, age group (5-year), body mass index (categorical), smoking status, education, insurance, income, and US region with hysterectomy. Missing data were imputed. The number of women in each survey year ranged from 220,302 in 2006 to 275,631 in 2016.

RESULTS

Although overall hysterectomy prevalence changed little between 2006 and 2016 (21.4% and 21.1%, respectively), hysterectomy prevalence was lower in 2016 than in 2006 among women aged ≥40 years, particularly among non-Hispanic Black and Hispanic women. Current smoking (odds ratio, 1.38; 95% confidence interval, 1.35-1.41), increasing age (odds ratio, 1.40; 95% confidence interval, 1.39-1.40), living in the South compared with the Midwest (odds ratio, 1.36; 95% confidence interval, 1.34-1.39), higher body mass index (odds ratio, 1.26; 95% confidence interval, 1.25-1.27), Black race compared with White (odds ratio, 1.10; 95% confidence interval, 1.07-1.13), and having insurance compared with being uninsured (odds ratio, 1.26; 95% confidence interval, 1.22-1.30) were most strongly associated with increased prevalence. Hispanic ethnicity and living in the Northeast were most strongly associated with decreased prevalence (odds ratio, 0.73; 95% confidence interval, 0.70-0.76; odds ratio, 0.67; 95% confidence interval, 0.65-0.69).

CONCLUSION

Nationwide hysterectomy prevalence decreased among women aged ≥40 years from 2006 to 2016, particularly among non-Hispanic Black and Hispanic women. Age, non-Hispanic Black race, having insurance, current smoking, and living in the South were associated with increased odds of hysterectomy, even after accounting for possible explanatory factors. Further research is needed to better understand associations of race and ethnicity and region with hysterectomy prevalence.

Risk-Based Cervical Consensus Guidelines: Methods to Determine Management if Less Than 5 Years of Data Are Available

OBJECTIVES

In the 2019 ASCCP Risk-Based Management Consensus Guidelines, clinical management decisions are based on immediate and 5-year cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) 3+ risk estimates. However, data for technologies other than human papillomavirus testing and cytology may be limited to clinical trials and observational studies of shorter duration than 5 years. To enable decisions about 1- or 3-year intervals, 3-year CIN 3+ risk equivalents to 5-year CIN 3+ risk thresholds were generated.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We examined screening test result scenarios around the 5-year risk thresholds of 0.15% and 0.55% and calculated the average percent increase in CIN 3+ risk from 3 to 5 years. Using this average increase, we obtained estimates of corresponding risk thresholds at 3 years. We then validated whether use of the 3-year risk threshold would have resulted in equivalent management per the 2019 recommendations.

RESULTS

Around the 5-year CIN 3+ risk threshold of 0.55%, the average increase in risk from 3 to 5 years was 0.16%. Therefore, the equivalent threshold for 3-year risk was estimated as 0.39%. We found no difference in recommendations to return in 1 or 3 years using the 3-year or 5-year risk thresholds in 66 of the 67 scenarios (98.5%) in follow-up in 2019 guidelines.

CONCLUSIONS

In this methodological addendum, the Enduring Guidelines Committee adopted the use of the 0.39% 3-year CIN 3+ risk threshold as equivalent of the 0.55% 5-year CIN 3+ risk threshold for technologies with fewer than 5 years of follow-up data. This allows evidence-based guidance for surveillance intervals of 1 or 3 years for new technologies with limited longitudinal data.

Impact of HIV on Anal Squamous Cell Carcinoma Rates in the United States, 2001-2015

BACKGROUND

Incidence of anal squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) has increased in the U.S. Persons living with HIV (PLWH) have an elevated risk of anal SCC, and changes in the number of anal SCCs among PLWH may have influenced general population trends.

METHODS

Data were obtained from a linkage of HIV and cancer registries in 12 U.S. regions. The proportion of anal SCCs occurring among PLWH was estimated by sex, age group and race and ethnicity. To assess the impact of anal SCCs among PLWH on general population trends, annual percentage changes (APCs) in incidence rates including and excluding anal SCCs among PLWH were estimated.

RESULTS

Between 2001-2015, 14.5% of 16,110 anal SCC diagnoses occurred in PLWH. In 2013-2015, 33% of anal SCCs among men occurred in PLWH, but only 3% among women. The proportion of anal SCCs among PLWH was highest among 20-49-year-olds and Black and Hispanic individuals. General population anal SCC trends among men were strongly influenced by cases among PLWH: rates increased 4.6%/year [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.4%, 8.0%] from 2001-2009 followed by a non-significant decline (APC: -2.7%/year [95%CI: -7.1, 2.0%]) from 2009-2015, but without anal SCCs among PLWH, rates were stable (APC: 0.7%, [95%CI: -0.8%-2.3%]). Anal SCC rates among women increased 3.8%/year (95%CI 3.2%-4.4%) during 2001-2012 and then declined non-significantly (APC=-3.8; 95%CI -6.9, -0.6), and anal SCCs among PLWH had little impact on these trends.

CONCLUSION

During 2001-2015, anal SCCs among PLWH contributed strongly to changes in incidence trends in the general U.S. population among men, but not women.

Racial and Ethnic Differences in Hysterectomy-Corrected Uterine Corpus Cancer Mortality by Stage and Histologic Subtype

Importance

Uterine cancer incidence has been increasing, particularly rates of aggressive, nonendometrioid subtypes, which are disproportionately higher among non-Hispanic Black women. The association of subtype-specific trends with uterine cancer mortality and with the role of tumor subtype and stage at diagnosis with racial disparities in uterine cancer deaths at the population-based level are not known.

Objective

To estimate histologic subtype- and stage-specific uterine cancer mortality rates by race and ethnicity, corrected for hysterectomy.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cohort study used the US Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results-18 Incidence-Based Mortality database, representing approximately 26% of the US population and including deaths that occurred from 2000 to 2017. Hysterectomy correction was based on hysterectomy prevalence data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System. Uncorrected and corrected rates associated with uterine corpus cancer cases diagnosed between 2000 and 2017 and uterine corpus cancer deaths occurring between 2010 and 2017 were age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population and are expressed per 100 000 person-years, and annual percent changes in rates were calculated using log-linear regression. Data analysis was performed from March 10 to May 20, 2021.

Exposures

Tumor histologic subtype, cancer stage at diagnosis, and race and ethnicity.

Results

Among 208 587 women diagnosed with uterine cancer during 2000-2017 (15 983 [7.7%] were Asian; 20 302 [9.7%] Black; 23 096 [11.1%] Hispanic; and 149 206 [71.5%] White individuals), there were 16 797 uterine cancer deaths between 2010 and 2017, corresponding to a hysterectomy-corrected mortality rate of 15.7 per 100 000 person-years. Hysterectomy-corrected rates were highest among Black women, overall, by histologic subtype and stage at diagnosis. Among all women, uterine corpus cancer mortality rates increased significantly by 1.8% (95% CI, 1.5%-2.9%) per year from 2010 to 2017, as did rates of nonendometrioid carcinomas (2.7%; 95% CI, 1.8%-3.6%), with increases occurring in Asian (3.4%; 95% CI, 0.3%-6.6%), Black (3.5%; 95% CI, 2.2%-4.9%), Hispanic (6.7%; 95% CI, 1.9%-11.8%), and White women (1.5%; 95% CI, 0.6%-2.4%). In contrast, endometrioid carcinoma mortality rates remained stable.

Conclusions and Relevance

The findings of this cohort study suggest a significant increase of nonendometrioid uterine carcinoma mortality rates, aligning with recent incidence trends. The factors associated with these trends are not well understood and require more investigation of possible mechanisms. Despite stable incidence rates, endometrioid cancer mortality rates have not decreased over the past decade at the population level, suggesting limited progress in treatment for these cancers. The substantial disparities in uterine corpus cancer mortality rates among non-Hispanic Black women cannot be fully explained by subtype distribution and stage at diagnosis.

Contribution of Etiologic Cofactors to CIN3+ Risk Among Women With Human Papillomavirus-Positive Screening Test Results

OBJECTIVE

The US screening and management guidelines for cervical cancer are based on the absolute risk of precancer estimated from large clinical cohorts and trials. Given the widespread transition toward screening with human papillomavirus (HPV) testing, it is important to assess which additional factors to include in clinical risk assessment to optimize management of HPV-infected women.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We analyzed data from HPV-infected women, ages 30-65 years, in the National Cancer Institute-Kaiser Permanente Northern California Persistence and Progression study. We estimated the influence of HPV risk group, cytology result, and selected cofactors on immediate risk of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 or higher (CIN 3+) among 16,094 HPV-positive women. Cofactors considered included, age, race/ethnicity, income, smoking, and hormonal contraceptive use.

RESULTS

Human papillomavirus risk group and cytology test result were strongly correlated with CIN 3+ risk. After considering cytology and HPV risk group, other cofactors (age, race/ethnicity, income, smoking, and hormonal contraceptive use) had minimal impact on CIN 3+ risk and did not change recommended management based on accepted risk thresholds. We had insufficient data to assess the impact of long-duration heavy smoking, parity, history of sexually transmitted infection, or immunosuppression.

CONCLUSIONS

In our study at the Kaiser Permanente Northern California, the risk of CIN 3+ was determined mainly by HPV risk group and cytology results, with other cofactors having limited impact in adjusted analyses. This supports the use of HPV and cytology results in risk-based management guidelines.

Automated evaluation of p16/Ki-67 dual stain cytology as a biomarker for detection of anal precancer in MSM living with HIV

BACKGROUND

Human papillomavirus (HPV)-related biomarkers such as p16/Ki-67 "dual stain" (DS) cytology have shown promising clinical performance for anal cancer screening. Here, we assessed the performance of automated evaluation of DS cytology to detect anal precancer in men who have sex with men (MSM) living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV).

METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of 320 MSM with HIV undergoing anal cancer screening and high-resolution anoscopy (HRA) between 2009-2010. We evaluated the performance of automated DS based on a deep-learning classifier compared to manual DS evaluation to detect anal intraepithelial neoplasia (AIN) grades 2 and 3 (AIN2+) and AIN3. We evaluated different DS-positive cell thresholds quantified by the automated approach and modeled its performance compared to other screening strategies in a hypothetical population of MSM with HIV.

RESULTS

Automated DS had significantly higher specificity (50.9% vs. 42.2%, p=0.0004) and similar sensitivity (93.2% vs. 92.1%) for detection of AIN2+ compared to manual DS cytology. HPV testing with automated DS triage was significantly more specific (56.5% vs. 50.9%, p=0.0003) with the same sensitivity (93.2%) compared to automated DS alone. In a modeled analysis assuming a 20% AIN2+ prevalence, automated DS detected the most precancers compared to manual DS and anal cytology (186,184, and 162, respectively) and had the lowest HRA referral per AIN2+ detected (3.1,3.5, and 3.3, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Compared to manual evaluation, automated DS cytology detects the same number of precancers with lower HRA referral.

White matter tracts that overlap with the thalamus and the putamen are protected against multiple sclerosis pathology

BACKGROUND

The thalamus and the putamen are highly connected hubs implicated in multiple sclerosis (MS) pathology. It remains unclear if white matter (WM) tracts, which pass through them, have a different susceptibility to MS pathology, and if so, if their impact on disability predominates over that exerted by disease in other WM tracts. We hypothesized that WM tracts connected to and passing through these hubs (subsequently termed hub+ tracts) would be more susceptible to MS-related pathology than tracts that do not pass through them (hub- tracts) due to retrograde and anterograde distant degeneration. Thus, we compared the lesion load and neurite orientation dispersion and density imaging (NODDI) derived metrics between hub+ and hub- tracts and assessed the relationship between these MRI metrics and those of physical impairment.

METHODS

Eighteen patients (mean age of 45.5 years, 12 females) had 3 Tesla MRI consisting of T1-weighted and T2-weighted Fluid Attenuated Inversion Recovery (FLAIR), and NODDI from which the orientation dispersion index (ODI), neurite density index (NDI), and isotropic volume fraction (IVF) were derived. Forty-nine WM tracts, i.e., 12 hub+ and 37 hub- tracts, were segmented out. Exploratory analyses of the differences in lesion burden, whole tract and normal appearing WM (NAWM) NODDI metrics were carried out between the two types of tracts using a Mann-Whitney U test. Correlations with physical impairment, quantified using the expanded disability status scale (EDSS) and timed 25-foot walk (T25FW) test were assessed using Spearman correlation analyses.

RESULTS

Hub- tracts had larger T1- (p<0.001) and T2-lesion (p<0.001) volumes; lower ODI (p<0.001), NDI (p<0.001) and higher IVF (p = 0.020) in comparison to hub+ tracts. Measures of tissue injury in hub+ tracts correlated with those of clinical disability, though less strongly than in hub- tracts.

CONCLUSIONS

Contrary to our hypothesis, our exploratory pilot study results suggest that WM tracts that overlap with the thalamus and the putamen have a lower degree of lesional and non-lesional tissue injury, suggesting a protective role of the hubs against MS pathology or a higher degree of vulnerability of those not passing through hub stations. We also show a weaker association between disability impairment and hub+ pathology, compared to that in hub- tracts. Our findings point to a potential role of disease location in relation to hubs as guidance for treatment personalization in MS.

STRIDES - STudying Risk to Improve DisparitiES in Cervical Cancer in Mississippi - Design and baseline results of a Statewide Cohort Study

Cervical cancer rates in Mississippi are disproportionately high, particularly among Black individuals; yet, research in this population is lacking. We designed a statewide, racially diverse cohort of individuals undergoing cervical screening in Mississippi. Here, we report the baseline findings from this study. We included individuals aged 21 years and older undergoing cervical screening with cytology or cytology-human papillomavirus (HPV) co-testing at the Mississippi State Health Department (MSDH) and the University of Mississippi Medical Center (UMMC) (December 2017-May 2020). We collected discarded cytology specimens for future biomarker testing. Demographics and clinical results were abstracted from electronic medical records and evaluated using descriptive statistics and chi-square tests. A total of 24,796 individuals were included, with a median age of 34.8 years. The distribution of race in our cohort was 60.2% Black, 26.4% White, 7.5% other, and 5.9% missing. Approximately 15% had abnormal cytology and, among those who underwent co-testing at MSDH (n = 6,377), HPV positivity was 17.4% and did not vary significantly by race. Among HPV positives, Black individuals were significantly less likely to be HPV16/18 positive and more likely to be positive for other high-risk 12 HPV types compared to White individuals (20.5% vs. 27.9%, and 79.5% and 72.1%, respectively, p = 0.011). Our statewide cohort represents one of the largest racially diverse studies of cervical screening in the U.S. We show a high burden of abnormal cytology and HPV positivity, with significant racial differences in HPV genotype prevalence. Future studies will evaluate cervical precancer risk, HPV genotyping, and novel biomarkers in this population.

The Improving Risk Informed HPV Screening (IRIS) Study: Design and Baseline Characteristics

BACKGROUND

Cervical cancer screening with high-risk HPV (HrHPV) testing is being introduced. Most HrHPV infections are transient, requiring triage tests to identify individuals at highest risk for progression to cervical cancer. Head-to-head comparisons of available strategies for screening and triage are needed. Endometrial and ovarian cancers could be amenable to similar testing.

METHODS

Between 2016-2021 discard cervical cancer screening specimens from women ages 25-65 undergoing screening at Kaiser Permanente Northern California were collected. Specimens were aliquoted, stabilized, and stored frozen. HPV, cytology and histopathology results as well as demographic and co-factor information were obtained from electronic medical records. Follow-up collection of specimens was conducted for 2 years and EMR-based data collection was planned five years.

RESULTS

Collection of enrollment and follow-up specimens are complet and EMR-based follow-up data collection is ongoing. At baseline, specimens were collected from 54,971 HPV-positive, 10,219 HPV-negative/Pap-positive and 12,751 HPV-negative/Pap-negative women. Clinical history prior to baseline was available for 72.6% of individuals, of which 53.9% were undergoing routine screening, 8.6% recently had an abnormal screen, 30.3% had previous colposcopy, and 7.2% had previous treatment. As of November 2020, 55.6% had one or more colposcopies, yielding 5,515 CIN2, 2,735 CIN3 and 147 cancer histopathology diagnoses.

CONCLUSIONS

This robust population-based cohort study represents all stages of cervical cancer screening, management, and post-treatment follow-up.

IMPACT

The IRIS study is a unique and highly relevant resource allowing for natural history studies and rigorous evaluation of candidate HrHPV screening and triage markers, while permitting studies of biomarkers associated with other gynecological cancers.

Age-specific prevalence of human papillomavirus and abnormal cytology at baseline in a diverse statewide prospective cohort of individuals undergoing cervical cancer screening in Mississippi

Background

Mississippi (MS) has among the highest rates of cervical cancer incidence and mortality in the United States, with disproportionately higher rates among Blacks compared to Whites. Here, we evaluate the prevalence of high‐risk human papillomavirus (HPV) and abnormal cytology in a representative baseline sample from a diverse statewide cohort of individuals attending cervical screening in MS from the STRIDES Study (STudying Risk to Improve DisparitiES in cervical cancer).

Methods

We included individuals aged 21–65 years undergoing screening at the University of Mississippi Medical Center (UMMC) and the Mississippi State Department of Health (MSDH) from May to November 2018. We calculated age‐specific HPV prevalence, overall and by partial HPV16/18 genotyping, and abnormal cytology by race.

Results

A total of 6871 individuals (mean age 35.7 years) were included. HPV prevalence was 25.6% and higher in Blacks (28.0%) compared to Whites (22.4%). HPV prevalence was significantly higher in Blacks aged 21–24 years (50.2%) and 30–34 years (30.2%) compared to Whites in the same age groups (32.1% and 20.7%; p < 0.0001, respectively). The prevalence of high‐grade cytologic abnormalities, a cytologic sign of cervical precancer, peaked earlier in Blacks (ages 25–29) compared to Whites (35–39). For comparison, we also analyzed HPV prevalence data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES, 2013–2016) and observed similar racial differences in HPV prevalence among women aged 21–24 years.

Conclusions

Our findings suggest that Blacks undergoing cervical cancer screening in MS have higher prevalence of other high‐risk 12 HPV types at younger ages and experience an earlier peak of high‐grade cytologic abnormalities compared to Whites.

Liquid Biopsy for Cancer Detection: Clinical and Epidemiologic Considerations

Detection of circulating nucleic acids, also referred to as liquid biopsy, has been evaluated for detection of cancer in a variety of settings. We describe important clinical and epidemiologic considerations for liquid biopsy applications in cancer early detection and for monitoring of cancer recurrence.See related article by Jeannot et al., p. 5869.

Impact of COVID-19 on cervical cancer screening: Challenges and opportunities to improving resilience and reduce disparities

The COVID-19 pandemic has a major impact on a wide range of health outcomes. Disruptions of elective health services related to cervical screening, management of abnormal screening test results, and treatment of precancers, may lead to increases in cervical cancer incidence and exacerbate existing health disparities. Modeling studies suggest that a short delay of cervical screening in subjects with previously negative HPV results has minor effects on cancer outcomes, while delay of management and treatment can lead to larger increases in cervical cancer. Several approaches can mitigate the effects of disruption of cervical screening and management. HPV-based screening has higher accuracy compared to cytology, and a negative HPV result provides longer reassurance against cervical cancer; further, HPV testing can be conducted from self-collected specimens. Self-collection expands the reach of screening to underserved populations who currently do not participate in screening. Self-collection and can also provide alternative screening approaches during the pandemic because testing can be supported by telehealth and specimens collected in the home, substantially reducing patient-provider contact and risk of COVID-19 exposure, and also expanding the reach of catch-up services to address backlogs of screening tests that accumulated during the pandemic. Risk-based management allows prioritizing management of patients at highest risk of cervical cancer while extending screening intervals for those at lowest risk. The pandemic provides important lessons for how to make cervical screening more resilient to disruptions and how to reduce cervical cancer disparities that may be exacerbated due to disruptions of health services.

Accuracy and Efficiency of Deep-Learning-Based Automation of Dual Stain Cytology in Cervical Cancer Screening

Background

With the advent of primary human papillomavirus testing followed by cytology for cervical cancer screening, visual interpretation of cytology slides remains the last subjective analysis step and suffers from low sensitivity and reproducibility.

Methods

We developed a cloud-based whole-slide imaging platform with a deep-learning classifier for p16/Ki-67 dual-stained (DS) slides trained on biopsy-based gold standards. We compared it with conventional Pap and manual DS in 3 epidemiological studies of cervical and anal precancers from Kaiser Permanente Northern California and the University of Oklahoma comprising 4253 patients. All statistical tests were 2-sided.

Results

In independent validation at Kaiser Permanente Northern California, artificial intelligence (AI)-based DS had lower positivity than cytology (P < .001) and manual DS (P < .001) with equal sensitivity and substantially higher specificity compared with both Pap (P < .001) and manual DS (P < .001), respectively. Compared with Pap, AI-based DS reduced referral to colposcopy by one-third (41.9% vs 60.1%, P < .001). At a higher cutoff, AI-based DS had similar performance to high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions cytology, indicating a risk high enough to allow for immediate treatment. The classifier was robust, showing comparable performance in 2 cytology systems and in anal cytology.

Conclusions

Automated DS evaluation removes the remaining subjective component from cervical cancer screening and delivers consistent quality for providers and patients. Moving from Pap to automated DS substantially reduces the number of colposcopies and also achieves excellent performance in a simulated fully vaccinated population. Through cloud-based implementation, this approach is globally accessible. Our results demonstrate that AI not only provides automation and objectivity but also delivers a substantial benefit for women by reduction of unnecessary colposcopies.

Cervical Cancer Screening-Past, Present, and Future

Cervical cancer screening has undergone a transformation in recent decades. Historically, programs were based on cervical cytology (i.e., "Pap smear"), which had to be repeated often because of its limited sensitivity and reproducibility. In more recent years, the discovery of human papillomavirus (HPV) as the necessary cause of virtually all cervical cancers has led to the introduction of HPV testing into clinical practice, first as a triage test for minor cytologic abnormalities, then in conjunction with cervical cytology (cotesting), and most recently, as a standalone screening test. Multiple randomized trials have shown that HPV-based screening has higher sensitivity compared with cytology, providing great reassurance against cervical precancer and cancer for women testing HPV-negative for many years. Analyses have also been conducted in support of the recent U.S. Preventive Services Task Force guidelines that show that primary HPV screening achieves the greatest balance of benefits and harms compared with other strategies. An added benefit of primary HPV testing is the ability to conduct it from self-collected samples, which is critical for extending coverage among hard-to-reach individuals and could provide a safe and effective alternative to in-person screening visits during the COVID-19 pandemic.See related article by Liang et al., p. 474.

The relationship of human papillomavirus and cytology co-testing results with endometrial and ovarian cancer diagnoses

BACKGROUND

To investigate whether routine cervical screening using human papillomavirus (HPV) and cytology co-testing effectively identifies women with endometrial (EC) or ovarian (OvC) cancer.

METHODS

In 2003, Kaiser Permanente Northern California implemented triennial co-testing in women aged ≥30 years. Index screening results (n = 2,385,729) were linked to subsequent EC (n = 3434) and OvC (n = 1113) diagnoses from January 1, 2003 to December 31, 2017. EC were categorized as type 1 or 2, and, selectively, EC and OvC diagnoses were stratified on whether symptoms were present at the time of the co-test. Fractions and absolute risks of EC or OvC of each co-testing result were calculated.

RESULTS

Most EC (82.18%) and OvC (88.68%) were preceded by a negative HPV and negative cytology co-test. More EC were preceded by atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance (ASC-US) or more severe (ASC-US+) cytology and negative HPV test (n = 290) (8.44% of EC) compared to a negative cytology and a positive HPV test (n = 31) (0.89% of EC) (p < 0.001). The absolute risk of any EC diagnosis following ASC-US+ and negative HPV test was 0.48%. Atypical glandular cells (AGC) cytology and a negative HPV result preceded 6.92% of any EC diagnosis, with an absolute risk of 4.02%, but preceded only 1.13% of type 2 EC cases, with an absolute risk of 0.24%, in asymptomatic women. AGC cytology and a negative HPV result preceded 1.44% of OvC, with an absolute risk of 0.28%.

CONCLUSIONS

Abnormal cervical screening tests, even AGC cytology, rarely precedes and poorly predict women with EC or OvC.

Risk assessment of endometrial cancer and endometrial intraepithelial neoplasia in women with abnormal bleeding and implications for clinical management algorithms

BACKGROUND

Most endometrial cancer cases are preceded by abnormal uterine bleeding, offering a potential opportunity for early detection and cure of endometrial cancer. Although clinical guidelines exist for diagnostic workup of abnormal uterine bleeding, consensus is lacking regarding optimal management for women with abnormal bleeding to diagnose endometrial cancer.

OBJECTIVE

We report the baseline data from a prospective clinical cohort study of women referred for endometrial evaluation at the Mayo Clinic, designed to evaluate risk stratification in women at increased risk for endometrial cancer. Here, we introduce a risk-based approach to evaluate diagnostic tests and clinical management algorithms in a population of women with abnormal bleeding undergoing endometrial evaluation at the Mayo Clinic.

STUDY DESIGN

A total of 1163 women aged ≥45 years were enrolled from February 2013 to May 2019. We evaluated baseline absolute risks and 95% confidence intervals of endometrial cancer and endometrial intraepithelial neoplasia according to clinical algorithms for diagnostic workup of women with postmenopausal bleeding (assessment of initial vs recurrent bleeding episode and endometrial thickness measured through transvaginal ultrasound). We also evaluated risks among women with postmenopausal bleeding according to baseline age (<60 vs 60+ years) as an alternative example. For this approach, biopsy would be conducted for all women aged 60+ years and those aged <60 years with an endometrial thickness of >4 mm. We assessed the clinical efficiency of each strategy by estimating the percentage of women who would be referred for endometrial biopsy, the percentage of cases detected and missed, and the ratio of biopsies per case detected.

RESULTS

Among the 593 women with postmenopausal bleeding, 18 (3.0%) had endometrial intraepithelial neoplasia, and 47 (7.9%) had endometrial cancer, and among the 570 premenopausal women with abnormal bleeding, 8 (1.4%) had endometrial intraepithelial neoplasia, and 7 (1.2%) had endometrial cancer. Maximum risk was noted in women aged 60+ years (17.7%; 13.0%-22.3%), followed by those with recurrent bleeding (14.7%; 11.0%-18.3%). Among women with an initial bleeding episode for whom transvaginal ultrasound was recommended, endometrial thickness did not provide meaningful risk stratification: risks of endometrial cancer and endometrial intraepithelial neoplasia were nearly identical in women with an endometrial thickness of >4 mm (5.8%; 1.3%-10.3%) and ≤4 mm (3.6%; 0.9%-8.6%). In contrast, among those aged <60 years with an endometrial thickness of >4 mm, the risk of endometrial cancer and endometrial intraepithelial neoplasia was 8.4% (4.3%-12.5%), and in those with an endometrial thickness of ≤4 mm, the risk was 0% (0.0%-3.0%; P=.01). The most efficient strategy was to perform biopsy in all women aged 60+ years and among those aged <60 years with an endometrial thickness of >4 mm, with the lowest percentage referred to biopsy while still detecting all cases.

CONCLUSION

Existing clinical recommendations for endometrial cancer detection in women with abnormal bleeding are not consistent with the underlying risk. Endometrial cancer risk factors such as age can provide important risk stratification compared with the assessment of recurrent bleeding. Future research will include a formal assessment of clinical and epidemiologic risk prediction models in our study population as well as validation of our findings in other populations.

Trends in hysterectomy-corrected uterine cancer mortality rates during 2002 to 2015: mortality of nonendometrioid cancer on the rise?

Corpus uteri cancer is the most common gynecological malignancy in most developed countries. The disease is typically diagnosed at an early stage, is of endometrioid histologic subtype, and has a fairly good prognosis. Here, we describe hysterectomy-corrected mortality rates of corpus uteri cancer, overall and stratified by age, stage and histologic subtype. Using data from nationwide Danish registries, we calculated uncorrected and hysterectomy-corrected age-standardized mortality rates of corpus uteri cancer among women ≥35 years during 2002 to 2015. Individual-level hysterectomy status was obtained from national registries; hysterectomy-corrected mortality rates were calculated by subtracting posthysterectomy person-years from the denominator, unless hysterectomy was performed due to corpus uteri cancer. Correction for hysterectomy resulted in a 25.5% higher mortality rate (12.3/100000 person-years vs 9.8/100000 person-years). Mortality rates were highest in women aged 70+, irrespective of year of death, histologic subtype and stage. A significant decline was observed in overall hysterectomy-corrected mortality rates from 2002 to 2015, particularly among women aged 70+. Mortality rates of endometrioid cancer declined significantly over time (annual percent change [APC]: -2.32, 95% CI -3.9, -0.7, P = .01), whereas rates of nonendometrioid cancer increased (APC: 5.90, 95% CI: 3.0, 8.9, P < .001). With respect to stage, mortality rates increased significantly over time for FIGOI-IIa (APC: 6.18 [95% CI: 1.9, 10.7] P = .01) but remained unchanged for FIGO IIb-IV. In conclusion, increasing mortality rates of nonendometrioid cancer paralleled the previously observed rise in incidence rates of this histologic subtype. Given the poor prognosis of nonendometrioid cancer, more studies are needed to clarify the underlying reason for these findings.

Systematic review and meta-analysis of studies assessing the relationship between statin use and risk of ovarian cancer

PURPOSE

The link between lipid-stabilizing medications and epithelial ovarian carcinogenesis is incompletely understood. Statins may reduce ovarian cancer risk, but results are inconclusive.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies reporting associations between statin use and ovarian cancer risk in PubMed. Summary risk ratios (RRs) and confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated. Subgroup analyses by cancer histotype, statin class (lipo- or hydrophilic) and duration of statin use were conducted. Use of individual statins in populations was assessed to determine population-specific differences in statin types.

RESULTS

Nine studies with 435,237 total women were included (1 randomized controlled trial (RCT); 4 prospective; 4 case-control). Statin use was associated with a reduced risk of ovarian cancer (RR 0.87, 95% CI 0.74-1.03) and risk was significantly reduced in populations with low pravastatin use (RR 0.83, 95% CI 0.70-0.99). Risk estimates varied by statin class (3 studies; lipophilic: RR 0.88, 95% CI 0.69-1.12; hydrophilic: RR 1.06, 95% CI 0.72-1.57) and cancer histotype (3 studies; serous: RR 0.95, 95% CI 0.69-1.30; clear cell: RR 1.17, 95% CI 0.74-1.86). Long-term use was associated with a reduced risk of ovarian cancer (RR 0.77, 95% CI 0.54-1.10) that further reduced when pravastatin use was low (RR 0.68, 95% CI 0.46-1.01). Between-study heterogeneity was high overall and in subgroups (I² > 60%).

CONCLUSION

Statins may be associated with a reduced risk of ovarian cancer, but the effect likely differs by individual statin, duration of use and cancer histotype. Additional well-powered studies are needed to elucidate important subgroup effects.

5-Year Prospective Evaluation of Cytology, Human Papillomavirus Testing, and Biomarkers for Detection of Anal Precancer in Human Immunodeficiency Virus-Positive Men Who Have Sex With Men

BACKGROUND

Human papillomavirus (HPV)-related biomarkers have shown good cross-sectional performance for anal precancer detection in human immunodeficiency virus-positive (HIV+) men who have sex with men (MSM). However, the long-term performance and risk stratification of these biomarkers are unknown. Here, we prospectively evaluated high-risk (HR) HPV DNA, HPV16/18 genotyping, HPV E6/E7 messenger RNA (mRNA), and p16/Ki-67 dual stain in a population of HIV+ MSM.

METHODS

We enrolled 363 HIV+ MSM between 2009-2010, with passive follow-up through 2015. All had anal cytology and a high-resolution anoscopy at baseline. For each biomarker, we calculated the baseline sensitivity and specificity for a combined endpoint of high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion (HSIL) and anal intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 or more severe diagnoses (HSIL/AIN2+), and we estimated the 2- and 5-year cumulative risks of HSIL/AIN2+ using logistic and Cox regression models.

RESULTS

There were 129 men diagnosed with HSIL/AIN2+ during the study. HR-HPV testing had the highest positivity and sensitivity of all assays, but the lowest specificity. HPV16/18 and HPV E6/E7 mRNA had high specificity, but lower sensitivity. The 2- and 5-year risks of HSIL/AIN2+ were highest for those testing HPV16/18- or HPV E6/E7 mRNA-positive, followed by those testing dual stain-positive. Those testing HR-HPV- or dual stain-negative had the lowest 2- and 5-year risks of HSIL/AIN2+.

CONCLUSIONS

HPV-related biomarkers provide long-term risk stratification for anal precancers. HR-HPV- and dual stain-negativity indicate a low risk of HSIL/AIN2+ for at least 2 years, compared with negative anal cytology; however, the high positivity of HR-HPV in HIV+ MSM may limit its utility for surveillance and management in this population.

Value of 3T Susceptibility-Weighted Imaging in the Diagnosis of Multiple Sclerosis

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Previous studies have suggested that the central vein sign and iron rims are specific features of MS lesions. Using 3T SWI, we aimed to compare the frequency of lesions with central veins and iron rims in patients with clinically isolated syndrome and MS-mimicking disorders and test their diagnostic value in predicting conversion from clinically isolated syndrome to MS.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

For each patient, we calculated the number of brain lesions with central veins and iron rims. We then identified a simple rule involving an absolute number of lesions with central veins and iron rims to predict conversion from clinically isolated syndrome to MS. Additionally, we tested the diagnostic performance of central veins and iron rims when combined with evidence of dissemination in space.

RESULTS

We included 112 patients with clinically isolated syndrome and 35 patients with MS-mimicking conditions. At follow-up, 94 patients with clinically isolated syndrome developed MS according to the 2017 McDonald criteria. Patients with clinically isolated syndrome had a median of 2 central veins (range, 0-19), while the non-MS group had a median of 1 central vein (range, 0-6). Fifty-six percent of patients who developed MS had ≥1 iron rim, and none of the patients without MS had iron rims. The sensitivity and specificity of finding ≥3 central veins and/or ≥1 iron rim were 70% and 86%, respectively. In combination with evidence of dissemination in space, the 2 imaging markers had higher specificity than dissemination in space and positive findings of oligoclonal bands currently used to support the diagnosis of MS.

CONCLUSIONS

A single 3T SWI scan offers valuable diagnostic information, which has the potential to prevent MS misdiagnosis.

Racial differences in HPV type 16 prevalence in women with ASCUS of the uterine cervix

BACKGROUND

Understanding racial influences on human papillomavirus (HPV) distribution in women with atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance (ASCUS) cytology via partial genotyping in a statewide population can inform HPV-based prevention efforts.

METHODS

Women aged 21 to 65 years with any cytology result and partial HPV genotyping for ASCUS triage between January 1, 2014, and December 31, 2017, were included. All women attended a Mississippi State Department of Health clinic. Age, race, cytopathologic, and HPV data were extracted from the electronic health record and analyzed. Cytologic specimens were processed with ThinPrep and HPV testing with the Cobas 4800 assay. HPV genotypes were evaluated in hierarchical categories. Chi-square tests and multinomial logistic regression models evaluated associations between race and type prevalence.

RESULTS

There were 43,106 women who underwent cervical cancer screening with cytology and ASCUS triage. Of these, 34,363 (80.2%) had normal cytology, 4672 (10.9%) had ASCUS, 2683 (6.3%) had a low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion, and 633 (1.5%) had a high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion. Blacks represented 69.3% of the sample and had a higher proportion of HPV-positive ASCUS (6.5%) in comparison with whites (5.6%). Blacks had significantly decreased odds of HPV-16 (odds ratio [OR], 0.66; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.6-0.9; P = .002) and significantly increased odds for 12 other types (OR, 1.37; 95% CI, 1.2-1.5; P < .0001) in comparison with whites.

CONCLUSIONS

In a diverse population, significant differences in HPV genotypes are shown by race. Importantly, blacks with ASCUS are less likely to be positive for HPV-16 in comparison with whites. Ongoing work is evaluating the individual genotype prevalence and genotype-specific risk of precancer by race.