Survival by sex and HIV status in patients with anal cancer in the USA between 2001 and 2019: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

The risk of anal cancer is increased among people with HIV, particularly men who have sex with men. Estimating survival by HIV status and sex and identifying groups at high risk is crucial for documenting prognostic differences between populations. We aimed to compare all-cause and anal cancer-specific survival in patients with anal cancer with and without HIV, stratified by sex, and to identify predictors of survival, stratified by HIV status.

METHODS

In this retrospective cohort study, we used data from the HIV/AIDS Cancer Match Study of 13 population-based HIV and cancer registries throughout the USA. We included individuals aged 20-79 years diagnosed with invasive anal cancer between 2001 and 2019. To estimate associations between HIV status and both all-cause and anal cancer-specific mortality overall, we used Cox proportional hazards models, adjusting for year of and age at diagnosis, sex, race and ethnicity, histology, cancer stage, region, and treatment. We also calculated sex-specific adjusted hazard ratios (HRs). By HIV status, we identified characteristics associated with mortality. Models among people with HIV were further adjusted for AIDS status and HIV transmission risk group.

FINDINGS

Between Jan 1, 2001, and Dec 31, 2019, 1161 (43·6%) of 2662 patients with anal cancer and HIV and 7722 (35·4%) of 21 824 patients without HIV died. HIV was associated with a 1·35 times (95% CI 1·24-1·47) increase in all-cause mortality among male patients and a 2·47 times (2·10-2·90) increase among female patients. Among patients with HIV, all-cause mortality was increased among non-Hispanic Black individuals (adjusted HR 1·19, 95% CI 1·04-1·38), people with AIDS (1·36, 1·10-1·68), people who inject drugs (PWID; 1·49, 1·17-1·90), patients with adenocarcinoma (2·74, 1·82-4·13), and those with no or unknown surgery treatment (1·34, 1·18-1·53). HIV was associated with anal cancer-specific mortality among female patients only (1·52, 1·18-1·97). Among patients with HIV, anal cancer-specific mortality was increased among patients with adenocarcinoma (3·29, 1·89-5·72), those with no or unknown treatment (1·59, 1·17-2·17), and PWID (1·60, 1·05-2·44).

INTERPRETATION

HIV was associated with all-cause mortality among patients with anal cancer, especially women. Anal cancer-specific mortality was elevated among female patients with HIV. As screening for anal cancer becomes more widespread, examining the effects of screening on survival by HIV status and sex is crucial.

FUNDING

US National Cancer Institute Intramural Research Program.

Human Papillomavirus Awareness by Educational Level and by Race and Ethnicity

Importance

Understanding disparities in human papillomavirus (HPV) awareness is crucial, given its association with vaccine uptake.

Objective

To investigate differences in HPV awareness by educational attainment, race, ethnicity, and their intersectionality.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cross-sectional study used the Health Information National Trends Survey (HINTS) 5 cycles 1 to 4 data (January 26, 2017, to June 15, 2020). The data were analyzed from December 12, 2022, to June 20, 2023. A sample of the noninstitutionalized civilian US population 18 years or older was included in the analysis.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Weighted prevalence of HPV awareness, HPV vaccine awareness, and knowledge that HPV causes cancer, stratified by educational attainment and by race and ethnicity. Interaction between educational attainment and race and ethnicity was assessed using a Wald test.

Results

A total of 15 637 participants had educational attainment data available; of these, 51.2% were women, and the median age was 58 (IQR, 44-69) years. A total of 14 444 participants had race and ethnicity information available; of these, 4.6% were Asian, 13.9% were Black, 15.3% were Hispanic, 62.6% were White, and 3.6% were of other race or ethnicity (including American Indian or Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander, and more than 1 race or ethnicity). Awareness of HPV by educational attainment ranged from 40.4% for less than high school to 78.2% for college or higher; awareness by race and ethnicity ranged from 46.9% among Asian individuals to 70.2% among White individuals. Awareness of HPV vaccines across educational attainment ranged from 34.7% among those with less than high school to 74.7% among those with a college degree or higher and by race and ethnicity from 48.4% among Asian individuals to 68.2% among White individuals. Among adults who were aware of HPV, knowledge that HPV causes cervical cancer differed by educational attainment, ranging from 51.7% among those with less than high school to 84.7% among those with a college degree or higher, and by race and ethnicity, ranging from 66.0% among Black individuals to 77.9% among Asian individuals. The interaction between educational attainment and race and ethnicity on HPV awareness and HPV vaccine awareness was not significant; however, within each educational attainment level, awareness differed by race and ethnicity, with the lowest awareness consistently among Asian individuals regardless of educational attainment. Within each racial and ethnic group, HPV awareness and HPV vaccine awareness significantly decreased with decreasing educational attainment.

Conclusions and Relevance

Disparities in HPV awareness were evident across social factors, with the lowest awareness among Asian individuals and individuals with lower educational attainment. These results emphasize the importance of considering social factors in HPV awareness campaigns to increase HPV vaccination.

Racial Disparities among Asian American, Native Hawaiian, and Other Pacific Islander Patients with Cancer Who Refuse Recommended Radiation Therapy or Surgery

Despite radiation therapy (RT) and surgery being the curative treatments, prior work demonstrated that the aggregated Asian American (AA) and Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islanders (NHPI) population refuse RT and surgery at a higher rates than other races. Given that AA and NHPI are distinct groups, data disaggregation is necessary to understand racial and ethnic disparities for treatment refusal. We aimed to (1) compare RT and surgery refusal rates between AA and NHPI populations, (2) assess RT and surgery refusal on overall mortality, and (3) determine predictors of refusing RT and surgery using the United States (U.S.) National Cancer Database. Adjusted odds ratios (aOR) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI) for treatment refusal were calculated using logistic regression. Adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) were calculated for overall survival using Cox proportional hazard models among propensity score-matched groups. The overall rate of RT refusal was 4.8% and surgery refusal was 0.8%. Compared to East AA patients, NHPI patients had the highest risk of both RT refusal (aOR = 1.38, 95%CI = 1.21-1.61) and surgery refusal (aOR = 1.28, 95%CI = 1.00-1.61). RT refusal significantly predicted higher mortality (aHR = 1.17, 95%CI = 1.08-1.27), whereas surgery refusal did not. Predictors of RT and surgery refusal were older patient age, high comorbidity index, and cancer diagnosis between 2011-2017. The results show heterogenous treatment refusal patterns among AA and NHPI populations, suggesting areas for targeted intervention.

Trends in incidence rates of head and neck squamous cell carcinomas overall and by potential relatedness to human papillomavirus, Costa Rica 2006 to 2015

In Costa Rica (CR), only one report on head and neck cancer (HNC) incidence trends (1985-2007) has been published and no investigations on the epidemiology of potentially human papillomavirus (HPV)-related and HPV-unrelated HNCs have been done. We examined the age-standardized incidence rates (IRs) and trends of head and neck squamous cell carcinomas (HNSCC) and compared incidence trends of potentially HPV-related and HPV-unrelated HNSCCs. We obtained all available HNC cases for the period 2006-2015 from the Costa Rican National Cancer Registry of Tumors and the population estimates from the Costa Rican National Institute of Statistics and Census. The analysis was restricted to invasive HNSCCs (n = 1577). IRs and incidence rate ratios were calculated using SEER*Stat software and were age-standardized for the 2010 Costa Rican population. Joinpoint regression analysis program was used to calculate trends and annual percent changes (APCs) in rates. For all HNSCCs, the age-standardized IR was 34.0/million person-years; 95% CI 32.4, 35.8. There was a significant decline in the incidence of nasopharyngeal cancer (APC: -5.9% per year; 95% CI -10.8, -0.7) and laryngeal cancer (APC: -5.4% per year; -9.2, 1.5). The incidence trends for hypopharyngeal, oropharyngeal and oral cavity cancers each remained stable over time. HNSCCs were categorized by their potential relatedness to HPV infection. Though the APCs were not statistically significant, IRs of potentially HPV-related HNSCCs trended upward, while HPV-unrelated HNSCCs trended downward. HNSCCs are uncommon in CR and decreased over time. We observed a divergent pattern of decreasing HPV-unrelated with increasing HPV-related HNSCCs that should be further informed by HPV genotyping tumor samples.

Racial Disparities in Brachytherapy Treatment among Women with Cervical and Endometrial Cancer in the United States

Brachytherapy improves clinical outcomes among women diagnosed with cervical and endometrial cancers. Recent evidence demonstrates that declining brachytherapy boosts for women with cervical cancer were associated with higher mortality. In this retrospective cohort study, women diagnosed with endometrial or cervical cancer in the United States between 2004 and 2017 were selected from the National Cancer Database for evaluation. Women ≥18 years of age were included for high intermediate risk (PORTEC-2 and GOG-99 definition) or FIGO Stage II-IVA endometrial cancers and FIGO Stage IA-IVA-non-surgically treated cervical cancers. The aims were to (1) evaluate brachytherapy treatment practice patterns for cervical and endometrial cancers in the United States; (2) calculate rates of brachytherapy treatment by race; and (3) determine factors associated with not receiving brachytherapy. Treatment practice patterns were evaluated over time and by race. Multivariable logistic regression assessed predictors of brachytherapy. The data show increasing rates of brachytherapy for endometrial cancers. Compared to non-Hispanic White women; Native Hawaiian and other Pacific Islander (NHPI) women with endometrial cancer and Black women with cervical cancer were significantly less likely to receive brachytherapy. For both NHPI and Black women, treatment at community cancer centers was associated with a decreased likelihood of brachytherapy. The data suggest racial disparities among Black women with cervical cancer and NHPI women with endometrial cancer and emphasize an unmet need for brachytherapy access within community hospitals.

Human papillomavirus-associated cancer incidence by disaggregated Asian American, Native Hawaiian, and other Pacific Islander ethnicity

BACKGROUND

Asian Americans and Native Hawaiians and other Pacific Islanders have suboptimal human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination and cancer screening rates. Asian Americans and NHPIs are often aggregated, masking disparities characterized by varying colonization and immigration patterns and cultural and religious beliefs between populations and ethnicities. We examined the incidence of HPV-associated cancers across disaggregated Asian American and NHPI ethnicities.

METHODS

Using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Detailed Asian/Pacific Islander database, we calculated 1990 to 2014 sex-specific, age-standardized HPV-associated cancer incidence of cervical carcinoma, oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (SCC), vulvar SCC, vaginal SCC, anal SCC, and penile SCC by ethnicity: Asian Indian and Pakistani, Chinese, Filipino, Japanese, Kampuchean, Korean, Laotian, Native Hawaiian, other Pacific Islander, and Vietnamese. Trends by calendar period (1990 to 1996, 1997 to 2002, 2003 to 2008, 2009 to 2014) were estimated using Joinpoint regression.

RESULTS

The most common HPV-associated cancer was cervical carcinoma in women and oropharyngeal SCC in men. During 1990 to 2014, cervical carcinoma incidence per 100 000 ranged from 4.5 (Asian Indian and Pakistani) to 20.7 (Laotian). Cervical carcinoma incidence only statistically significantly declined for Asian Indian and Pakistani, Filipino, Korean, Laotian, and Vietnamese women (range = 19.9% to 44.1% decline per period). Among men, oropharyngeal SCC incidence per 100 000 ranged from 1.1 (Chinese) to 5.1 (Native Hawaiian). Oropharyngeal SCC incidence only statistically significantly increased (31.0% increase per period) for Japanese men. Heterogeneity across ethnicities were observed for other cancer sites.

CONCLUSIONS

HPV-associated cancer incidence varied widely between Asian Americans and NHPIs and by ethnicity, underscoring the need for improved data capture of ethnic groups in research and more tailored interventions to better address health disparities between Asian American and NHPI populations.

Measurement of provider fidelity to immunization guidelines: a mixed-methods study on the feasibility of documenting patient refusals of the human papillomavirus vaccine

BACKGROUND

Assessment and feedback is a common implementation strategy to improve healthcare provider fidelity to clinical guidelines. For immunization guidelines, fidelity is often measured with doses administered during eligible visits. Adding a patient refusal measure captures provider fidelity more completely (i.e., all instances of a provider recommending a vaccine, resulting in vaccination or refusal) and enables providers to track patient vaccine hesitancy patterns. However, many electronic health record (EHR) systems have no structured field to document multiple instances of refusals for specific vaccines, and existing billing codes for refusal are not vaccine specific. This study assessed the feasibility of a novel method for refusal documentation used in a study focused on human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine.

METHODS

An observational, descriptive-comparative, mixed-methods study design was used to conduct secondary data analysis from an implementation-effectiveness trial. The parent trial compared coach-based versus web-based practice facilitation, including assessment and feedback, to increase HPV vaccination in 21 community-based private pediatric practices. Providers were instructed to document initial HPV vaccine refusals in the EHR's immunization forms and subsequent refusals using dummy procedure codes, for use in assessment and feedback reports. This analysis examined adoption and maintenance of the refusal documentation method during eligible well visits, identified barriers and facilitators to documentation and described demographic patterns in patient refusals.

RESULTS

Seven practices adopted the refusal documentation method. Among adopter practices, documented refusals started at 2.4% of eligible well visits at baseline, increased to 14.2% at the start of implementation, peaked at 24.0%, then declined to 18.8%. Barriers to refusal documentation included low prioritization, workflow integration and complication of the billing process. Facilitators included high motivation, documentation instructions and coach support. Among adopter practices, odds of refusing HPV vaccine were 25% higher for patients aged 15-17 years versus 11-12 years, and 18% lower for males versus females.

CONCLUSIONS

We demonstrated the value of patient refusal documentation for measuring HPV vaccination guideline fidelity and ways that it can be improved in future research. Creation of vaccine-specific refusal billing codes or EHR adaptations to enable documenting multiple instances of specific vaccine refusals would facilitate consistent refusal documentation. Trial Registration NCT03399396 Registered in ClinicalTrials.gov on 1/16/2018.

Precancerous cervical lesions caused by non-vaccine-preventable HPV types after vaccination with the bivalent AS04-adjuvanted HPV vaccine: an analysis of the long-term follow-up study from the randomised Costa Rica HPV Vaccine Trial

BACKGROUND

In women vaccinated against human papillomavirus (HPV), reductions in cervical disease and related procedures results in more women having intact transformation zones, potentially increasing the risk of cervical lesions caused by non-vaccine-preventable HPV types, a phenomenon termed clinical unmasking. We aimed to evaluate HPV vaccine efficacy against cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 or worse (CIN2+) and cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 or worse (CIN3+) attributed to non-preventable HPV types in the long-term follow-up phase of the Costa Rica HPV Vaccine Trial (CVT).

METHODS

CVT was a randomised, double-blind, community-based trial done in Costa Rica. Eligible participants were women aged 18-25 years who were in general good health. Participants were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive an HPV 16 and 18 AS04-adjuvanted vaccine or control hepatitis A vaccine, using a blocked randomisation method (permuted block sizes of 14, 16, and 18). Vaccines in both groups were administered intramuscularly with 0·5 mL doses at 0, 1, and 6 months. Masking of vaccine allocation was maintained throughout the 4-year randomised trial phase, after which participants in the hepatitis A virus vaccine control group were provided the HPV vaccine and exited the study; a screening-only, unvaccinated control group was enrolled. The unvaccinated control group and HPV vaccine group were followed up for 7 years, during which treatment allocation was not masked. One of the prespecified primary endpoints for the long-term follow-up phase was precancers associated with HPV types not prevented by the vaccine, defined as histologically confirmed incident CIN2+ events or CIN3+ events attributed to any HPV type except HPV 16, 18, 31, 33, and 45. Our primary analytical period was years 7-11. Primary analyses were in all participants with at least one follow-up visit and excluded participants with a previous endpoint (ie, modified intention-to-treat cohort). Safety endpoints have been reported elsewhere. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT00128661 and NCT00867464. The randomised, masked trial phase is completed; an unmasked subset of women in the HPV-vaccinated group is under active investigation.

FINDINGS

Between June 28, 2004, and Dec 21, 2005, 7466 participants were enrolled (HPV vaccine group n=3727 and hepatitis A virus vaccine control group n=3739). Between March 30, 2009, and July 5, 2012, 2836 women enrolled in the new unvaccinated control group. The primary analytical cohort (years 7 to 11) included 2767 participants in the HPV vaccine group and 2563 in the unvaccinated group for the CIN2+ events endpoint assessment and 2826 participants in the HPV vaccine group and 2592 in the unvaccinated control group for the CIN3+ events endpoint assessment. Median follow-up during years 7 to 11 for women included for the CIN2+ events analysis was 52·8 months (IQR 44·0 to 60·7) for the HPV vaccine group and 49·8 months (42·0 to 56·9) for the unvaccinated control group. During years 7 to 11, clinical unmasking was observed with a negative vaccine efficacy against CIN2+ events attributed to non-preventable HPV types (-71·2% [95% CI -164·0 to -12·5]), with 9·2 (95% CI 2·1 to 15·6) additional CIN2+ events attributed to non-preventable HPV types per 1000 HPV-vaccinated participants versus HPV-unvaccinated participants. 27·0 (95% CI 14·2 to 39·9) fewer CIN2+ events irrespective of HPV type per 1000 vaccinated participants were observed during 11 years of follow-up. Vaccine efficacy against CIN3+ events attributed to non-preventable HPV types during years 7 to 11 was -135·0% (95% CI -329·8 to -33·5), with 8·3 (3·0 to 12·8) additional CIN3+ events attributed to non-preventable HPV types per 1000 vaccinated participants versus unvaccinated participants.

INTERPRETATION

Higher rates of CIN2+ events and CIN3+ events due to non-preventable HPV types in vaccinated versus unvaccinated participants suggests clinical unmasking could attenuate long-term reductions in high-grade disease following successful implementation of HPV vaccination programmes in screened populations. Importantly, the net benefit of vaccination remains considerable; therefore, HPV vaccination should still be prioritised as primary prevention for cervical cancer.

FUNDING

National Cancer Institute and National Institutes of Health Office of Research on Women's Health.

TRANSLATION

For the Spanish translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

HPV16 infection decreases vaccine-induced HPV16 antibody avidity: the CVT trial

The HPV vaccine has shown sustained efficacy and consistent stabilization of antibody levels, even after a single dose. We defined the HPV16-VLP antibody avidity patterns over 11 years among women who received one- or three doses of the bivalent HPV vaccine in the Costa Rica HPV Vaccine Trial. Absolute HPV16 avidity was lower in women who received one compared to three doses, although the patterns were similar (increased in years 2 and 3 and remained stable over the remaining 8 years). HPV16 avidity among women who were HPV16-seropositive women at HPV vaccination, a marker of natural immune response to HPV16 infection, was significantly lower than those of HPV16-seronegative women, a difference that was more pronounced among one-dose recipients. No differences in HPV16 avidity were observed by HPV18 serostatus at vaccination, confirming the specificity of the findings. Importantly, point estimates for vaccine efficacy against incident, six-month persistent HPV16 infections was similar between women who were HPV16 seronegative and seropositive at the time of initial HPV vaccination for both one-dose and three-dose participants. It is therefore likely that this lower avidity level is still sufficient to enable antibody-mediated protection. It is encouraging for long-term HPV-vaccine protection that HPV16 antibody avidity was maintained for over a decade, even after a single dose.

Human Papillomavirus Vaccine Impact on Cervical Precancers in a Low-Vaccination Population

INTRODUCTION

Demonstrating human papillomavirus vaccine impact is critical for informing guidelines to increase vaccination and decrease human papillomavirus‒related outcomes, particularly in states with suboptimal vaccination coverage, such as Tennessee. This study examines the trends in high-grade cervical lesion incidence among Tennessee Medicaid-enrolled women aged 18-39 years and the subset of women who were screened for cervical cancer.

METHODS

Using a validated claims-based model to identify incident cervical intraepithelial neoplasia Grades 2 or 3 or adenocarcinoma in situ events, annual age group‒specific incidence rates from Tennessee Medicaid billing data, 2008-2018, were calculated. Significant trends were determined by Joinpoint. Analyses were conducted in 2020.

RESULTS

From 2008 to 2018, high-grade cervical lesion incidence significantly declined in women aged 18-20 years (average annual percentage change= -31.9, 95% CI= -38.6, -24.6), 21-24 years (average annual percentage change= -12.9, 95% CI= -22.3, -2.4), and 25-29 years (average annual percentage change= -6.4, 95% CI= -8.1, -4.6). Among screened women, rates significantly declined for ages 18-20 years (average annual percentage change= -20.3, 95% CI= -25.3, -15.0), 21-24 years (average annual percentage change= -10.2, 95% CI= -12.6, -7.8), and 25-29 years (average annual percentage change= -2.6, 95% CI= -3.9, -1.2). Trends from 2008 to 2018 were stable for older age groups (30-34 and 35-39 years).

CONCLUSIONS

Results show reductions in high-grade cervical lesion incidence among ages most likely to have benefited from the human papillomavirus vaccine. Declines among young, screened women suggest causes other than reduction in screening. Evidence of vaccine impact in populations with low-vaccination coverage, such as Tennessee, is promising.

Prevalence of Hepatitis B Virus Infection Among US Adults Aged 20-59 Years With a History of Injection Drug Use: National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 2001-2016

BACKGROUND

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) can transmit through needle sharing. The national HBV infection prevalence in persons who inject drugs remains ill-defined. We estimated the prevalence of total HBV core antibody (anti-HBc) positivity, indicating a previous or ongoing HBV infection, among adults aged 20-59 years with an injection drug use (IDU) history. We compared select characteristics by anti-HBc status.

METHODS

Using 2001-2016 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey data, we calculated the anti-HBc positivity prevalence among adults with IDU histories and among the general US population. For adults with IDU histories, we compared sex, age group, birth cohort, race/ethnicity, health insurance coverage, and hepatitis A immunity by anti-HBc status. Using marginal structural models, we calculated model-adjusted prevalence rates and ratios to determine the characteristics associated with anti-HBc positivity among adults with IDU histories.

RESULTS

From 2001-2016, the anti-HBc positivity prevalence was 19.7% (95% confidence interval [CI] 16.0-24.0%) among those with IDU histories, compared with 4.6% (95% CI 4.3-5.0%) in the general population. The HBV surface antigen positivity prevalence was 0.4% (95% CI 0.3-0.5%) in the general population. Among adults with IDU histories, 19.8% reported prior-year IDU and 28.5% had a hepatitis A immunity.

CONCLUSIONS

One-fifth of adults with IDU histories had a previous or ongoing HBV infection: a rate over 4 times higher than the prevalence in the general population. One-fifth of adults with IDU histories reported prior-year use. Programs promoting safe IDU practices, drug treatment, and hepatitis A and B vaccinations should be key components of viral hepatitis prevention.

Improving Cervical Precancer Surveillance: Validity of Claims-Based Prediction Models in ICD-9 and ICD-10 Eras

Background

Human papillomavirus vaccine (HPV) impact on cervical precancer (cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grades 2+ [CIN2+]) is observable sooner than impact on cancer. Biopsy-confirmed CIN2+ is not included in most US cancer registries. Billing codes could provide surrogate metrics; however, the International Classification of Diseases, ninth (ICD-9) to tenth (ICD-10) transition disrupts trends. We built, validated, and compared claims-based models to identify CIN2+ events in both ICD eras.

Methods

A database of Davidson County (Nashville), Tennessee, pathology-confirmed CIN2+ from the HPV Vaccine Impact Monitoring Project (HPV-IMPACT) provided gold standard events. Using Tennessee Medicaid 2008-2017, cervical diagnostic procedures (N = 8549) among Davidson County women aged 18-39 years were randomly split into 60% training and 40% testing sets. Relevant diagnosis, procedure, and screening codes were used to build models from CIN2+ tissue diagnosis codes alone, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), and random forest. Model-classified index events were counted to estimate incident events.

Results

HPV-IMPACT identified 983 incident CIN2+ events. Models identified 1007 (LASSO), 1245 (CIN2+ tissue diagnosis codes alone), and 957 (random forest) incident events. LASSO performed well in ICD-9 and ICD-10 eras: 77.3% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 72.5% to 81.5%) vs 81.1% (95% CI = 71.5% to 88.6%) sensitivity, 93.0% (95% CI = 91.9% to 94.0%) vs 90.2% (95% CI = 87.2% to 92.7%) specificity, 61.3% (95% CI = 56.6% to 65.8%) vs 60.3% (95% CI = 51.0% to 69.1%) positive predictive value, 96.6% (95% CI = 95.8% to 97.3%) vs 96.3% (95% CI = 94.1% to 97.8%) negative predictive value, 91.0% (95% CI = 89.9% to 92.1%) vs 88.8% (95% CI = 85.9% to 91.2%) accuracy, and 85.1% (95% CI = 82.9% to 87.4%) vs 85.6% (95% CI = 81.4% to 89.9%) C-indices, respectively; performance did not statistically significantly differ between eras (95% confidence intervals all overlapped).

Conclusions

Results confirmed model utility with good performance across both ICD eras for CIN2+ surveillance. Validated claims-based models may be used in future CIN2+ trend analyses to estimate HPV vaccine impact where population-based biopsies are unavailable.

Trends in anogenital wart incidence among Tennessee Medicaid enrollees, 2006-2014: The impact of human papillomavirus vaccination

Introduction

Evidence of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine impact on anogenital warts (AGWs) by race or urbanicity in the US is lacking. We evaluated HPV vaccine impact in Tennessee by assessing AGW trends among Tennessee Medicaid (TennCare) enrollees aged 15–39 years from 2006-2014.

Methods

Persons with incident AGWs were identified using diagnosis/pharmacy codes from TennCare billing claims. We calculated sex-specific annual AGW incidence by age group, race, and urbanicity; estimated annual percent changes (APCs) using log-linear models; and performed pairwise comparisons by race and urbanicity.

Results

AGW incidence decreased among females aged 15–19 (APC = −10.6; P < 0.01) and 20–24 years (APC = −3.9; P = 0.02). Overall trends were similar between Whites and Blacks, and between those living in metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) and non-MSAs. Rates among males aged 15–19 years began decreasing after 2010. Among enrollees aged 25–39 years, rates increased or were stable.

Conclusions

Following introduction of the HPV vaccine in 2006, AGWs decreased among age groups most likely to be vaccinated. The change in trend among young males after 2010 suggests early herd effects. Our findings indicate vaccine effects and support the importance of improving adherence to current vaccination recommendations for preventing AGWs and other HPV-related diseases.

Changes in care coordination and health insurance in the population of US children with muscular dystrophy, 2005-2006 and 2009-2010

Introduction

We aimed to assess changes in care coordination and health insurance coverage among US children with muscular dystrophy.

Methods

We used 2005-2006 and 2009-2010 data from the National Survey of Children with Special Health Care Needs. We examined the distribution of sociodemographic and health characteristics of children with muscular dystrophy by survey cycle. Multivariable regression was used to calculate odds of not receiving effective care coordination, not having adequate health insurance coverage, receiving no help coordinating care, and having problems obtaining referrals in each survey cycle.

Results

In the 2005-2006 and 2009-2010 survey cycles, there were 135 and 117 children with muscular dystrophy (representing 34,672 and 31,169 US children with muscular dystrophy), respectively. The percentage of children with muscular dystrophy who did not receive effective care coordination changed from 59.2% (95% confidence interval (CI), 45.6%-72.7%) in 2005-2006 to 53.4% (95% CI, 38.3%-68.6%) in 2009-2010. The odds of not receiving effective care coordination (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 0.77; 95% CI, 0.32-1.89) or having problems obtaining referrals (aOR = 0.52; 95% CI, 0.17-1.59) did not change significantly between the two periods, whereas odds of having inadequate insurance coverage decreased significantly (aOR = 0.41, 95% CI, 0.18-0.93) and odds of not receiving help coordinating care increased significantly (aOR = 4.22, 95% CI, 1.24-14.29) between the two periods.

Conclusion

Our results suggest key health care needs for many families with children with muscular dystrophy have remained unmet for a prolonged period. Although there were significant improvements in health insurance coverage, nearly one-third of children with muscular dystrophy still had inadequate health insurance coverage in 2009-2010; it is likely that this situation has not changed much since then.