Global trends in cutaneous malignant melanoma incidence and mortality

Mortality from cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM) increased in the past, but trends have been favorable in more recent years in many high-income countries. However, incidence has been increasing in several countries. We provided an up-to-date overview of mortality trends from CMM. We analyzed death certification data from the WHO in selected countries worldwide from 1980 to the most recent available calendar years. We also reported incidence data derived from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents from 1990 to 2012. Separate analyses were performed for young adults aged 20-44 and middle-aged adults aged 45-64 years. Mortality from CMM in all age groups showed a favorable pattern in the majority of the countries considered. Mortality trends declined by 40 to 50% in Australia over the last decades, confirming the importance of prevention measures. Considering young adults aged 20-44, Australia, New Zealand and Northern Europe reported the highest death rates for both sexes (>0.90/100 000 in men and >0.60/100 000 in women) while Japan, the Philippines, and Latin America the lowest ones (<0.50/100 000 and <0.35/100 000 in men and women, respectively). Incidence trends were stable or upward in most countries, with higher rates among women. Our study highlights a global reduction of CMM mortality over the last three decades. The increasing awareness of risk factors, mainly related to UV exposure, along with early diagnosis and progress in treatment for advanced disease played pivotal roles in reducing CMM mortality, particularly in Australia.

Dietary intake of vitamin C and gastric cancer: a pooled analysis within the Stomach cancer Pooling (StoP) Project

BACKGROUND

Previous studies suggest that dietary vitamin C is inversely associated with gastric cancer (GC), but most of them did not consider intake of fruit and vegetables. Thus, we aimed to evaluate this association within the Stomach cancer Pooling (StoP) Project, a consortium of epidemiological studies on GC.

METHODS

Fourteen case-control studies were included in the analysis (5362 cases, 11,497 controls). We estimated odds ratios (ORs) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association between dietary intake of vitamin C and GC, adjusted for relevant confounders and for intake of fruit and vegetables. The dose-response relationship was evaluated using mixed-effects logistic models with second-order fractional polynomials.

RESULTS

Individuals in the highest quartile of dietary vitamin C intake had reduced odds of GC compared with those in the lowest quartile (OR: 0.64; 95% CI: 0.58, 0.72). Additional adjustment for fruit and vegetables intake led to an OR of 0.85 (95% CI: 0.73, 0.98). A significant inverse association was observed for noncardia GC, as well as for both intestinal and diffuse types of the disease. The results of the dose-response analysis showed decreasing ORs of GC up to 150-200 mg/day of vitamin C (OR: 0.54; 95% CI: 0.41, 0.71), whereas ORs for higher intakes were close to 1.0.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings of our pooled study suggest that vitamin C is inversely associated with GC, with a potentially beneficial effect also for intakes above the currently recommended daily intake (90 mg for men and 75 mg for women).

Cancer mortality patterns in selected Northern and Southern African countries

BACKGROUND

Non-communicable diseases have been rapidly increasing in African countries. We provided updated cancer death patterns in selected African countries over the last two decades.

METHODS

We extracted official death certifications and population data from the WHO and the United Nations Population Division databases. We computed country- and sex-specific age-standardized mortality rates per 100 000 person-years for all cancers combined and ten major cancer sites for the periods 2005-2007 and 2015-2017.

RESULTS

Lung cancer ranked first for male cancer mortality in all selected countries in the last available period (with the highest rates in Réunion 24/100 000), except for South Africa where prostate cancer was the leading cause of death (23/100 000). Prostate cancer ranked second in Morocco and Tunisia and third in Mauritius and Réunion. Among Egyptian men, leukemia ranked second (with a stable rate of 4.2/100 000) and bladder cancer third (3.5/100 000). Among women, the leading cancer-related cause of death was breast cancer in all selected countries (with the highest rates in Mauritius 19.6/100 000 in 2015-2017), except for South Africa where uterus cancer ranked first (17/100 000). In the second rank there were colorectal cancer in Tunisia (2/100 000), Réunion (9/100 000) and Mauritius (8/100 000), and leukemia in Egypt (3.2/100 000). Colorectal and pancreas cancer mortality rates increased, while stomach cancer mortality rates declined.

CONCLUSION

Certified cancer mortality rates are low on a global scale. However, mortality rates from selected screening detectable cancers, as well as from infection-related cancers, are comparatively high, calling for improvements in prevention strategies.

Dietary intake of copper and gastric cancer: a pooled analysis within the Stomach cancer Pooling (StoP) Project

BACKGROUND

Evidence on the potential association between dietary copper intake and gastric cancer (GC) is lacking. Thus, we aimed to evaluate this association within the Stomach cancer Pooling (StoP) Project-an international consortium of epidemiological studies on GC.

METHODS

Data from five case-control studies within the StoP Project were included (2448 cases, 4350 controls). We estimated adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and 95% CIs for the association between dietary copper intake and GC using multivariable mixed-effects logistic regression models. We also modelled the dose-response relationship between copper intake and GC using a logistic mixed-effects model with fractional polynomial.

RESULTS

The OR for the highest quartile of copper intake compared with the lowest one was 0.78 (95% CI: 0.63-0.95; P for trend = 0.013). Results were similar for non-cardia-type (OR: 0.72; 95% CI: 0.57-0.91), intestinal-type (OR: 0.75; 95% CI: 0.56-0.99) and other histological-type GC (OR: 0.65; 95% CI: 0.44-0.96). The dose-response analysis showed a steep decrease in ORs for modest intakes (<1 mg/day), which were subsequently steady for ≤3 mg/day (OR: 0.09; 95% CI: 0.02-0.41) and slowly increased for higher intakes.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings of our large study suggest that copper intake might be inversely associated with GC, although their confirmation by prospective studies is required.

Cancer mortality predictions for 2024 in selected Asian countries and Australia with focus on stomach cancer

INTRODUCTION

We estimated cancer mortality figures in five major Asian countries and Australia for 2024, focusing on stomach cancer, a leading cause of cancer-related deaths in Eastern Asia.

METHODS

We computed country- and sex-specific annual age-standardized rates (ASRs) for total cancers and the 10 most common cancer sites, using WHO and the United Nations Population Division databases from 1970 to 2021 or the latest available year. We predicted figures for 2024 and estimated the number of avoided cancer deaths in 1994-2024.

RESULTS

All cancers combined ASR declined between 2015-2019 and 2024 across considered countries and sexes. In 2024, the lowest predicted male rate is in the Philippines (75.0/100 000) and the highest in Australia (94.2/100 000). The Republic of Korea is predicted to have the lowest female ASR (42.1/100 000) while the Philippines the highest (74.5/100 000). Over the last three decades, 121 300 deaths were estimated to be avoided in Hong Kong SAR, 69 500 in Israel, 1 246 300 in Japan, 653 300 in the Republic of Korea, 303 300 in Australia, and 89 700 among Philippine men. Mortality from stomach cancer has been decreasing since 1970 in all considered countries and both sexes. Significant decreases are at all age groups Male rates remain, however, high in Japan (8.7/100 000) and the Republic of Korea (6.2/100 000).

CONCLUSION

Declining cancer mortality is predicted in the considered countries, notably reducing stomach cancer burden. Stomach cancer, however, remains a major public health issue in East Asia.

Reproductive factors, hormonal interventions, and gastric cancer risk in the Stomach cancer Pooling (StoP) Project

BACKGROUND

Gastric cancer incidence is higher in men, and a protective hormone-related effect in women is postulated. We aimed to investigate and quantify the relationship in the Stomach cancer Pooling (StoP) Project consortium.

METHODS

A total of 2,084 cases and 7,102 controls from 11 studies in seven countries were included. Summary odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) assessing associations of key reproductive factors and menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) with gastric cancer were estimated by pooling study-specific ORs using random-effects meta-analysis.

RESULTS

A duration of fertility of ≥ 40 years (vs. < 20), was associated with a 25% lower risk of gastric cancer (OR = 0.75; 95% CI: 0.58-0.96). Compared with never use, ever, 5-9 years and ≥ 10 years use of MHT in postmenopausal women, showed ORs of 0.73 (95% CI: 0.58-0.92), 0.53 (95% CI: 0.34-0.84) and 0.71 (95% CI: 0.50-1.00), respectively. The associations were generally similar for anatomical and histologic subtypes.

CONCLUSION

Our results support the hypothesis that reproductive factors and MHT use may lower the risk of gastric cancer in women, regardless of anatomical or histologic subtypes. Given the variation in hormones over the lifespan, studies should address their effects in premenopausal and postmenopausal women. Furthermore, mechanistic studies may inform potential biological processes.

Hypertension and risk of endometrial cancer: a pooled analysis in the Epidemiology of Endometrial Cancer Consortium (E2C2)

BACKGROUND

The incidence rates of endometrial cancer (EC) are increasing, which may partly be explained by the rising prevalence of obesity, an established risk factor for EC. Hypertension, another component of metabolic syndrome, is also increasing in prevalence, and emerging evidence suggests that it may be associated with the development of certain cancers. The role of hypertension independent of other components of metabolic syndrome in the etiology of EC remains unclear. In this study we evaluated hypertension as an independent risk factor for EC and whether this association is modified by other established risk factors.

METHODS

We included 15,631 EC cases and 42,239 controls matched on age, race, and study-specific factors from 29 studies in the Epidemiology of Endometrial Cancer Consortium. We used multivariable unconditional logistic regression models to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) to evaluate the association between hypertension and EC and whether this association differed by study design, race/ethnicity, body mass index, diabetes status, smoking status, or reproductive factors.

RESULTS

Hypertension was associated with an increased risk of EC (OR=1.14, 95% CI:1.09-1.19). There was significant heterogeneity by study design (Phet<0.01), with a stronger magnitude of association observed among case-control vs. cohort studies. Stronger associations were also noted for pre-/peri-menopausal women and never users of postmenopausal hormone therapy.

CONCLUSIONS

Hypertension is associated with EC risk independently from known risk factors. Future research should focus on biologic mechanisms underlying this association.

IMPACT

This study provides evidence that hypertension may be an independent risk factor for EC.

Diabetes risk reduction diet and colorectal cancer risk

Background Diabetes has been associated with colorectal cancer (CRC). We aimed at evaluating whether adherence to a diabetes risk reduction diet (DRRD) could favorably influence the risk of CRC. Methods Data came from a multicentric Italian case-control study including 1,953 histologically confirmed CRC cases and 4,154 hospital controls admitted for acute non-neoplastic diseases. Diet was assessed through a validated and reproducible food frequency questionnaire. The DRRD score was computed assigning higher values for higher consumption of cereal fiber, fruit, coffee, nuts and a higher polyunsaturated/saturated fats ratio and for lower glycemic index and lower consumption of red/processed meat and sweetened beverage and fruit juice. The odds ratios (ORs) and the corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of CRC according to the DRRD score were obtained using logistic regression models adjusting for total energy intake and other major confounders. Results The DRRD was inversely related to CRC risk. The ORs of CRC were 0.77 (95% CI = 0.67-0.89) for the third versus first score tertile (p trend <0.001) and 0.92 (95% CI = 0.87-0.96) for a 3-point increment in the score. Inverse associations were observed for colon and rectal cancer and were consistent in strata of sex, age and other major covariates. Conclusion A higher adherence to a DRRD was inversely associated with CRC risk. Impact Given the high incidence and mortality rates of CRC, adherence to a DRRD can have relevant prevention and public health implications.

Global trends in anal cancer incidence and mortality

OBJECTIVE

Anal cancer is a rare disease, affecting more frequently women than men, mainly related to human papillomavirus infection (HPV). Rising incidence and mortality have been reported over the past four decades in different countries.

METHODS

To provide an up-to-date overview of recent trends in mortality from anal cancer, we analysed death certification data provided by the WHO in selected countries worldwide over the period from 1994 to 2020. We also analysed incidence derived from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents from 1990 to 2012 for all histologies as well as for anal squamous cell carcinoma (SCC).

RESULTS

The highest age-standardised mortality rates around 2020 were registered in Central and Eastern Europe, such as Slovakia (0.9/100 000 men and 0.40/100 000 women), in the UK (0.24/100 000 men and 0.35/100 000 women), and Denmark (0.33/100 000 for both sexes), while the lowest ones were in the Philippines, Mexico, and Japan, with rates below 0.10/100 000 in both sexes. Upwards trends in mortality were reported in most countries for both sexes. Similarly, incidence patterns were upward or stable in most countries considered for both sexes. In 2008-2012, Germany showed the highest incidence rates (1.65/100 000 men and 2.16/100 000 women).

CONCLUSION

Attention towards vaccination against HPV, increased awareness of risk factors, mainly related to sexual behaviours and advancements in early diagnosis and management are required to control anal cancer incidence and mortality.

European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2024 with focus on colorectal cancer

BACKGROUND

We predicted cancer mortality figures for 2024 for the European Union (EU), its five most populous countries, and the UK. We focused on mortality from colorectal cancer (CRC).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Based on cancer death certification and population data from the World Health Organization and Eurostat databases from 1970 until the most available year, we predicted deaths and age-standardized rates (ASRs) for 2024 for all cancers and the 10 most common cancer sites. We fitted a linear regression to the most recent trend segment identified by the joinpoint model. The number of avoided deaths since the peak in 1988-2024 was estimated for all cancers and CRC.

RESULTS

We predicted 1 270 800 cancer deaths for 2024 in the EU, corresponding to ASRs of 123.2/100 000 men (-6.5% versus 2018) and 79.0/100 000 women (-4.3%). Since 1988, about 6.2 million cancer deaths have been avoided in the EU and 1.3 million in the UK. Pancreatic cancer displayed unfavorable predicted rates for both sexes (+1.6% in men and +4.0% in women) and lung cancer for women (+0.3%). The focus on CRC showed falls in mortality at all ages in the EU, by 4.8% for men and 9.5% for women since 2018. The largest declines in CRC mortality are predicted among those 70+ years old. In the UK, projected ASRs for CRC at all ages are favorable for men (-3.4% versus 2018) but not for women (+0.3%). Below age 50 years, CRC mortality showed unfavorable trends in Italy and the UK, in Poland and Spain for men, and in Germany for women.

CONCLUSIONS

Predicted cancer mortality rates remain favorable in the EU and the UK, mainly in males due to earlier smoking cessation compared to females, underlining the persisting major role of tobacco on cancer mortality in Europe. Attention should be paid to the predicted increases in CRC mortality in young adults.

The global gastric cancer consortium: an update from the Stomach cancer Pooling (StoP) project

We updated to December 2023 the main findings of the stomach cancer pooling (StoP) project including about 13 000 cases and 31 000 controls from 29 case-control and 5 nested studies. The StoP project quantified more precisely than previously available the positive associations of tobacco smoking, high alcohol consumption, meat intake, selected occupations (e.g. agricultural and miners), gastric ulcer and family history with gastric cancer and the inverse associations with socioeconomic status and selected aspects of diet (fruits, including citrus fruits, vegetables, including allium and mushrooms, and polyphenols). No consistent associations were found with coffee, yoghurt and leisure-time physical activity, metformin or proton pump inhibitors use.

Legume intake and cancer risk in a network of case-control studies

Evidence on the relationship between legume consumption and risk of specific cancer sites is inconclusive. We used data from a series of case-controls studies, conducted in Italy and in the Swiss Canton of Vaud between 1991 and 2009 to quantify the association between legume consumption and several cancer sites including oral cavity, esophagus, larynx, stomach, colorectum, breast, endometrium, ovary, prostate and kidney. Multiple logistic regression models controlled for sex, age, education, smoking, alcohol, body mass index, physical activity, comorbidities, and consumption of fruit, vegetables, processed meat and total calorie intake were used to estimate the odds ratios (OR) for different cancer sites and their corresponding 95% confidence intervals(CI). For female hormone-related cancers, the models also included adjustments for age at menarche, menopausal status and parity. Although most of the estimates were below unity, suggesting a protective effect, only colorectal cancer showed a significant association. Compared to no consumption, the OR for consuming at least one portion of legumes was 0.79 (95% CI: 0.68-0.91), the OR for consuming two or more portions was 0.68 (95% CI: 0.57-0.82) and the estimate for an increment of one portion per week was 0.87 (95% CI: 0.81-0.93). The inverse association between legume consumption and colorectal cancer suggests a possible role of legumes in preventing cancer risk.

Cancer mortality in Germany-born Americans and Germans

INTRODUCTION

Comparing cancer mortality and associated risk factors among immigrant populations in a host country to those in their country of origin reveals disparities in cancer risk, access to care, diagnosis, and disease management. This study compares cancer mortality between the German resident population and Germany-born individuals who migrated to the US.

METHODS

Cancer mortality data from 2008-2018 were derived for Germans from the World Health Organization database and for Germany-born Americans resident in four states (California, Florida, Massachusetts, and New York) from respective Departments of Vital Statistics. We calculated age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) using the European standard population and standardized mortality ratios (SMR) compared to the German resident population along with 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

RESULTS

Germany-born American males had lower ASMRs (253.8 per 100,000) than German resident population (325.6 per 100,000). The difference in females was modest, with ASMRs of 200.7 and 203.7 per 100,000, respectively. For all cancers, Germany-born American males had an SMR of 0.72 (95% CI: 0.70-0.74) and females 0.98 (95% CI: 0.95-1.00). Male SMRs among Germany-born Americans were significantly below one for oral cavity, stomach, colorectal, liver, lung, prostate, and kidney cancer. Among females, SMRs were below one for oral cavity, stomach, colorectal, gallbladder, breast, cervix uteri, and kidney cancer. For both sexes, SMRs were over one for bladder cancer (1.14 for males, 1.21 for females). Mortality was higher for lung cancer (SMR: 1.68), non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (1.18) and uterine cancer (1.22) among Germany-born American females compared to the German resident population.

CONCLUSION

Germany-born American males but not females showed lower cancer mortality than German resident population. Disparities may stem from variations in risk factors (e.g., smoking and alcohol use) as well as differences in screening practices and participation, cancer treatment, besides some residual potential "healthy immigrant effect".

Uterine cancer deaths certified as part unspecified: an unsolved issue

OBJECTIVE

A large percentage of uterine cancer deaths worldwide are not attributed to the cervix or corpus, but classified as uterus part 'unspecified'. We provided the trend for the proportion of uterine cancer deaths certified as 'unspecified' in selected countries.

METHODS

We derived the proportions of 'unspecified' uterine cancers for 20 selected high- and middle-income countries with reliable death certification over the period 1994-2021, using official mortality data from the WHO database coded according to the 10th Revision of the International Classification of Diseases.

RESULTS

For the earliest available year, the proportion of deaths classified as 'unspecified' uterine cancers ranged from 5.8% in Mexico to 65.6% in Italy. In some countries only, this proportion decreased over time. For 10 countries the proportion of 'unspecified' uterus in the most recent available year was around 20%. The proportion of deaths at 20-44 years registered as uterus 'unspecified' was lower for all countries during the study period.

CONCLUSION

A substantial number of uterine cancer deaths worldwide coded as 'unspecified' was observed, also in high-income countries where death certification for other common neoplasms is accurate. Valid attribution of uterine cancer deaths to the cervix or corpus is feasible and should be adopted.

Occupational asbestos exposure and ovarian cancer: updated systematic review

BACKGROUND

The association between asbestos exposure and ovarian cancer has been questioned given the possible misdiagnosis of peritoneal mesothelioma as ovarian cancer.

AIMS

To update a systematic review on ovarian cancer risk in women occupationally exposed to asbestos, exploring the association with the time since first exposure and the duration of exposure.

METHODS

We searched PubMed from 2008 onwards, screened previous systematic reviews, combined standardized mortality ratios (SMR) using random effect models and quantified heterogeneity using the I2 statistic. To assess tumour misclassification, we compared the distribution of observed excess ovarian cancers (OEOC) to that expected (EEOC) from the distribution of peritoneal cancers in strata of latency and exposure duration.

RESULTS

Eighteen publications (20 populations), including a pooled analysis of 21 cohorts, were included. The pooled SMR was 1.79 (95% confidence interval 1.38-2.31), with moderate heterogeneity between studies (I2 = 42%), based on 144 ovarian cancer deaths/cases. The risk was increased for women with indirect indicators of higher exposure, longer duration and latency, and lower for chrysotile than for crocidolite exposure. The effect of duration and latency could not be completely disentangled, since no multivariate analysis was available for time-related variables. The dissimilarity index between OEOC and EEOC for the time since first exposure was small suggesting a similar pattern of risk.

CONCLUSIONS

While some misclassification between ovarian and peritoneal cancers cannot be excluded, the observed excess risk of ovarian cancer should be added to the overall disease burden of asbestos.

Cancers attributable to overweight and obesity in Italy

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Overweight and obesity are associated with multiple cancers. We quantified the burden of cancer attributable to overweight and obesity in Italy.

METHODS

We estimated sex- and cancer site-specific population attributable fractions (PAFs) combining relative risks (from recent meta-analyses) with national obesity prevalence data (from a large sample survey conducted in 2005, to account for a 15-year lag period). Using nationwide mortality statistics and cancer registries data, we estimated the number of cancer cases and deaths attributable to overweight and obesity in Italy in 2020, based on the counterfactual scenario of a body mass index < 25 kg/m2.

RESULTS

3.6% of cancers in men and 4.0% in women in Italy were attributable to overweight and obesity, corresponding, respectively, to over 6900 and 7200 diagnoses in 2020. Attributable deaths were over 3600 in men and 2700 in women. PAFs (attributable cases) of overweight and obesity in men and women were, respectively, 38.1% (215 cases) and 21.8% (49 cases) for esophageal adenocarcinoma, 19.1% (1715 cases) and 14.5% (585 cases) for liver, 18.7% (1692 cases) and 16.7% (747 cases) for kidney, 13.7% (938 cases) and 10.1% (749 cases) for pancreatic, and 10.2% (2389 cases) and 3.4% (690 cases) for colorectal cancers. In women, PAFs were 22.3% (1859 cases) for endometrial and 5.7% (2556 cases) for post-menopausal breast cancer.

CONCLUSIONS

The cancer burden associated with overweight and obesity in Italy is considerable, but smaller compared to other high income countries, likely because of the lower prevalence of overweight and obesity in the Italian population.

Global trends in esophageal cancer mortality with predictions to 2025, and in incidence by histotype

BACKGROUND

Esophageal cancer (EC) is a malignancy with a poor prognosis. We provided a global overview of EC mortality, analyzing figures over the last three decades and estimating mortality rates for the year 2025. We also reported incidence trends and the distribution of squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) and adenocarcinoma (AC) in selected countries.

METHODS

We considered EC trends in the age-standardised mortality rates (ASMR) from the World Health Organization database for selected countries. To estimate the number of deaths and ASMRs for 2025, we applied a Poisson linear regression model to the latest trend segment identified using a joinpoint model. We reported EC incidence trends according to histology using the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents database for the calendar period of 1990-2012.

RESULTS

In 2015-19, the male ASMRs/100,000 were 4.01 in the EU-27, 4.28 in the USA, and 5.10 in Japan. The corresponding female rates ranged from 0.82 to 0.85/100,000. Male mortality showed a decreasing trend in most countries analyzed, with earlier and steeper declines in southern Europe. Conversely, ASMRs were increasing in Belarus, Finland, Greece, and Cuba. Female mortality showed a slight increase in several European countries, while North America, Latin America, and Australasia showed favorable trends. Projections suggest that male EC mortality is expected to decline in all countries except the Russian Federation. Female favorable trends are also predicted in most countries, except for France, Germany, the Russian Federation, and Canada. SCC remained the most common histotype, but AC incidence showed an upward trend, particularly in high-income countries.

CONCLUSION

The observed trends in EC mortality reflect variations in patterns of major risk factors. Effective control of risk factors would contribute to reducing the burden of EC, together with early diagnosis and potential improvements in treatments.

Prebiotics and the Risk of Upper Digestive Tract and Stomach Cancers: The PrebiotiCa Study

BACKGROUND

Fiber intake may lower digestive tract cancer risk, possibly by modulating the composition of gut microbiota. However, no data are available about the role of specific fiber fractions with prebiotic activity (e.g., inulin-type fructans (ITFs), fructo-oligosaccharides (FOSs) and galactooligosaccharides (GOSs)) on the risk lower digestive tract cancers.

OBJECTIVE

The objective was to assess the association between prebiotic intake and the risk of cancers of the upper digestive tract and stomach.

DESIGN

Within the PrebiotiCa study, data were derived from a network of Italian case-control studies conducted between 1992 and 2009. Participants' usual diet was assessed using a food frequency questionnaire. ITFs, and selected FOSs (nystose, kestose, and 1F-β-fructofuranosylnystose) and GOSs (raffinose and stachyose) were quantified in several food products via laboratory analyses. Participants' prebiotic intake was calculated by multiplying food frequency questionnaire intake by the prebiotic content of each food item.

PARTICIPANTS/SETTING

Cases were patients admitted to major hospitals with incident histologically confirmed cancers; there were 946 cases of cancer of the oral cavity/pharynx, 198 of the nasopharynx, 304 of the esophagus, 230 of the stomach. More than 4,000 patients admitted to the same hospitals for acute nonneoplastic and not diet-related conditions were selected as control subjects.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The outcomes were oral and pharyngeal, nasopharyngeal, esophageal, and stomach cancers.

STATISTICAL ANALYSES PERFORMED

The odds ratios and corresponding 95% CIs of the various cancers were derived using logistic regression models adjusted for major confounders and energy intake.

RESULTS

No association was observed between intake of prebiotics and risk of cancers of the oral cavity and pharynx, nasopharynx, and esophagus. High raffinose intake reduced stomach cancer risk (odds ratio for the third vs the first tertile 0.6, 95% CI 0.3 to 0.9); no other prebiotic was associated with stomach cancer.

CONCLUSIONS

The current study does not support a major role of prebiotic fibers on selected upper digestive tract cancers. The association between high raffinose intake and reduced stomach cancer risk needs further investigation.

Cancer mortality associated with low education in Italy

BACKGROUND

This study provides a nationwide representative quantification of the impact of educational inequalities on cancer mortality in Italy.

METHODS

The study is based on prevalence data and mortality rate ratios according to levels of education obtained from the Italian 2011 census cohort, including >35 million individuals aged 30-74. We estimated the population attributable fraction (PAF) and the number of cancer deaths associated with low education (below university degree) in Italy by sex.

RESULTS

PAFs for low levels of education were 29.1% among men and 13.3% among women, corresponding to 22,271 cancer deaths associated with low education in men and 7456 in women in 2019. PAFs by cancer site in men were: 53.0% for upper aerodigestive tract (UADT), 44.6% for liver, 41.3% for stomach, 41.3% for lung, 37.0% for bladder, 18.5% for colorectal, 9.8% for prostate and 9.1% for pancreatic cancers. PAFs in women were: 44.5% for cervical, 36.1% for UADT, 34.9% for stomach and 13.9% for colorectal cancers. The cancer sites with the highest number of deaths associated with low education were lung among men (7902/22,271, 35.5%) and colorectum among women (780/7456, 10.5%).

CONCLUSIONS

About a quarter of cancer deaths in 2019 in Italy may be prevented by reducing the socioeconomic determinants that contribute to educational disparities in cancer mortality.

Spontaneous and induced abortions in women with a diagnosis of gestational related neoplasm: a population-based linkage study in Lombardy, 2010-2020

BACKGROUND

A diagnosis of cancer during pregnancy or within one year after the end of pregnancy is a major clinical and public health issue. The current study aimed at estimating the incidence of pregnancy-associated cancer (PAC) and assessing whether the risk of abortion is increased in women diagnosed with cancer.

METHODS

This population-based cohort study used the regional healthcare utilization (HCU) databases of Lombardy, the largest region in Italy, to identify the women who delivered between 2010 and 2020. PAC were identified by oncological ICD-9-CM codes reported in the hospital discharge forms. We computed the ratio of PAC cases to the total number of pregnancies. Following a diagnosis of PAC, the prevalence ratio (PR) of abortion and the corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI), was estimated using a log-binomial model adjusted for maternal age.

RESULTS

During the study period, 926 women who gave birth (1.29 cases per 1000 births) and 341 women who had an abortion (1.52 cases per 1000 abortions) were diagnosed with PAC. Regardless of the outcome of pregnancy, the risk of PAC increased with increasing age. The rate of PAC was initially lower among births, but it came very close to the rate of PAC among abortions in the last two calendar years. The proportion of abortions among women with PAC gradually decreased from 27.7% in 2010-2012 to 18.5% in 2019-2020 (p-value < 0.001). Overall, a diagnosis of PAC was related to an approximately 10% increased risk of abortion (PR = 1.11, 95%CI:1.01-1.22). However, no association was observed in 2019-2020 (PR = 0.87, 95%CI:0.65-1.17). Considering only diagnoses made during the first trimester of pregnancy, the risk of abortion was about 2.5 times higher (PR = 2.53, 95%CI:2.05-3.11) and the risk of induced abortion was almost 4 times higher (PR = 3.71, 95%CI:2.82-4.90).

CONCLUSION

In this population the risk of abortion was about 10% higher in women with PAC than in women without PAC. However, this association tended to decrease in more recent calendar periods. This trend seemed to be influenced more by spontaneous than by induced abortions.

European trends in ovarian cancer mortality, 1990-2020 and predictions to 2025

INTRODUCTION

Over the last decades, ovarian cancer mortality in Europe has been decreasing, but disparities in trends were observed. In this paper, we analysed ovarian cancer mortality trends in Europe over the period 1990-2020 and predicted the number of deaths and rates by 2025.

METHODS

We extracted population and death certification data from ovarian cancer in women for 31 European countries, between 1990 and 2020 from the World Health Organization database. We computed age-standardised mortality rates (ASMR) per 100,000 women-years, based on the world standard population. We also obtained predictions for 2025 using a joinpoint regression model and calculated the number of avoided deaths over the period 1994-2025.

RESULTS

Over the observed period, mortality from ovarian cancer showed a favourable pattern in most countries. In the EU-27, rates declined by 5.9% from 2010-2014 to 2015-2019, reaching an ASMR of 4.66/100,000. During the same period, the decline in ovarian cancer mortality was more pronounced in the EU-14 countries (-7.0%) compared to Transitional countries (-2.1%). Declines were also observed in the United Kingdom, to reach an ASMR of 5.29. Decreases in mortality from ovarian cancer are predicted until 2025, to 4.17/100,000 for the EU-27.

CONCLUSIONS

Favourable trends in ovarian cancer mortality are expected to persist in Europe and can be mainly attributed to the increased use of oral contraceptives in subsequent generations of European women. Decreased use of menopausal Hormone Replacement Therapy and improved diagnosis and management may also have played a role.

Diabetes risk reduction diet and ovarian cancer risk: an Italian case-control study

PURPOSE

To investigate the relation between a diabetes risk reduction diet (DRRD) and ovarian cancer.

METHODS

We used data from a multicentric case-control study conducted in Italy, including 1031 incident ovarian cancer cases and 2411 controls admitted to hospital centres for acute non-malignant disease. Subjects' diet prior to hospital admission was collected using a validated food frequency questionnaire. Adherence to the DRRD was measured using a score based on 8 dietary components, giving higher scores for greater intakes of cereal fiber, coffee, fruit, nuts, higher polyunsaturated to saturated fatty acids ratio, lower glycemic index of diet, and lower intakes of red/processed meat, and sweetened beverages/and fruit juices. Higher scores indicated greater adherence to the DRRD. Multiple logistic regression models were fitted to calculate the odds ratios (OR) of ovarian cancer and the corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI) for approximate quartiles of the DRRD score.

RESULTS

The DRRD score was inversely related to ovarian cancer, with an OR of 0.76 (95%CI: 0.60-0.95) for the highest versus the lowest quartile of the score (p for trend = 0.022). The exclusion of women with diabetes did not change the results (OR = 0.75, 95%CI: 0.59-0.95). Inverse associations were observed in strata of age, education, parity, menopausal status, and family history of ovarian/breast cancer.

CONCLUSION

Higher adherence to a diet aimed at reducing the risk of diabetes was inversely associated with ovarian cancer. Further evidence from prospective investigations will be useful to support our findings.

Trend of change of sperm count and concentration over the last two decades: A systematic review and meta-regression analysis

BACKGROUND

Since the 1970s, several studies found that sperm concentration (SC) and total sperm count (TSC) constantly worsened over time, mainly in high-income countries.

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate whether the decreasing trend in sperm count is continuing in Western European countries and USA, we performed a systematic review and meta-regression analysis.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Embase and Pubmed/Medline were searched papers published in English in the 2000-2020 period limiting the search to data collected in the USA and Western European countries.

RESULTS

We identified 62 articles and pooled information on 24,196 men (range 10-2,523), collected from 1993 to 2018. Considering all the studies, random-effects meta-regression analyses showed no significant trend for SC (slope per year -0.07 mil/mL, p-value = 0.86). Negative trends of SC were detected in Scandinavian countries (slope per year -1.11 mil/mL, 95% CI: -2.40 to +0.19; p-value = 0.09), but the findings were statistically not significant. No significant trends of SC were detected in Central Europe (slope per year +0.23, 95% CI -2.51 to +2.96; p-value = 0.87), the USA (slope per year +1.08, 95% CI -0.42 to +2.57; p-value = 0.16), and Southern Europe (slope per year +0.19, 95% CI -0.99 to +1.37; p-value = 0.75). We have analyzed separately findings from studies including sperm donors, fertile men, young unselected men (unselected men, study mean age < 25 years) and unselected men (unselected men, study mean age ≥ 25 years). No significant trends of SC were observed among sperm donors (slope per year -2.80, 95% CI -6.76 to +1.17; p-value 0.16), unselected men (slope per year -0.23, 95% CI -1.58 to +1.12; p-value 0.73), young unselected men (slope per year -0.49, 95% CI -1.76 to +0.79; p-value 0.45), fertile men (slope per year +0.29, 95% CI -1.09 to +1.67; p-value 0.68).

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION

The results of this analysis show no significant trends in SC, in USA, and selected Western European countries.

Dietary choline and sphingomyelin choline moiety intake and risk of colorectal cancer: a case-control study

INTRODUCTION

Phospholipids are possible favorable agents for colorectal cancer (CRC). Choline has been inversely related to CRC risk but findings are inconsistent. We assessed the effect of dietary sphingomyelin (SM) choline moiety and total choline intake on risk of CRC.

METHOD

This analysis is based on a multicenter case-control study conducted between 1992 and 1996 in Italy. A total of 6107 subjects were enrolled, including 1225 colon cancer cases, 728 rectal cancer cases and 4154 hospital-based controls. We applied data on the composition of foods in terms of SM choline moiety and choline intake on dietary information collected through a validated food-frequency questionnaire. Odds ratio (OR) for energy-adjusted tertiles of SM choline moiety and choline were estimated through logistic regression models adjusted for sex, age, center, education, alcohol consumption, body mass index, family history of CRC, and physical activity.

RESULTS

Choline was inversely related to CRC risk (OR for the highest versus the lowest tertile: 0.85; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.73-0.99), with a significant trend in risk. The OR for an increment of one standard deviation of energy-adjusted choline intake was 0.93 (95% CI: 0.88-0.98). The association was consistent in colon and rectal cancer and also across colon subsites. SM choline moiety was not associated with CRC risk (OR for the highest versus the lowest tertile: 0.96, 95% CI 0.84-1.11).

CONCLUSION

This study shows an inverse association between choline intake and CRC but not with SM choline moiety.

Sleep Duration and Stress Level in the Risk of Gastric Cancer: A Pooled Analysis of Case-Control Studies in the Stomach Cancer Pooling (StoP) Project

The association between sleep and stress and cancer is underinvestigated. We evaluated these factors in association with gastric cancer (GC). Five case-control studies from the Stomach Cancer Pooling (StoP) Project were included. We calculated the odds ratios (ORs) and the corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for sleep duration and stress level in association with GC through multiple logistic regression models adjusted for several lifestyle factors. The analysis included 1293 cases and 4439 controls, 215 cardia and 919 noncardia GC, and 353 diffuse and 619 intestinal types. Sleep duration of ≥9 h was associated with GC (OR =1.57, 95% CI = 1.23-2.00) compared to 8 h. This was confirmed when stratifying by subsite (noncardia OR = 1.59, 95% CI = 1.22-2.08, and cardia OR = 1.63, 95% CI = 0.97-2.72) and histological type (diffuse OR = 1.65, 95% CI = 1.14-2.40 and intestinal OR = 1.24, 95% CI = 0.91-1.67). Stress was associated with GC (OR = 1.33, 95% CI = 1.18-1.50, continuous). This relationship was selectively related to noncardia GC (OR = 1.28, 95% 1.12-1.46, continuous). The risk of diffuse (OR = 1.32, 95% CI = 1.11-1.58) and intestinal type (OR = 1.23, 95% CI = 1.07-1.42) were higher when stress was reported. Results for the association between increasing level of stress and GC were heterogeneous by smoking and socioeconomic status (p for heterogeneity = 0.02 and <0.001, respectively). In conclusion, long sleep duration (≥9 h) was associated with GC and its subtype categories. Stress linearly increased the risk of GC and was related to noncardia GC.

Leisure-time physical activity and gastric cancer risk: A pooled study within the Stomach cancer Pooling (StoP) Project

BACKGROUND

Although physical activity (PA) has been recognized as a favourable factor in the prevention of various diseases, including certain forms of cancer, the relationship between PA and gastric cancer (GC) is not yet fully understood. This study aims to provide data from a pooled analysis of case-control studies within the Stomach cancer Pooling (StoP) Project to estimate the association between leisure-time PA and the occurrence of GC.

METHODS

Six case-control studies from StoP project collected data on leisure-time PA, for a total of 2,343 cases and 8,614 controls. Subjects were classified into three leisure-time PA categories, either none/low, intermediate or high, based on study-specific tertiles. We used a two-stage approach. Firstly, we applied multivariable logistic regression models to obtain study-specific odds ratios (ORs) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) then, we used a random-effect models to obtain pooled effect estimates. We performed stratified analyses according to demographic, lifestyle and clinical covariates.

RESULTS

The meta-analysis showed ORs of GC with no significant differences between intermediate vs low and high vs low PA level (OR 1.05 [95%CI 0.76-1.45]; OR 1.23 [95%CI 0.78-1.94], respectively). GC risk estimates did not strongly differ across strata of selected covariates except for age ≤ 55 years old (high vs low level: OR 0.72 [95%CI 0.55-0.94]) and for control population-based studies (high vs low level: OR 0.79 [95%CI 0.68-0.93]).

CONCLUSIONS

No association was found between leisure time PA and GC, apart from a slight suggestion of decreased risk below age 55 and in control population-based studies. These results may reflect specific characteristics of GC at a younger age, or the presence of a cohort effect mediating and interacting with socioeconomic determinants of GC The different distribution of PA levels among hospitalized controls could have led to an underestimated effect of PA on GC risk.

A systematic review on maternal and perinatal factors influencing breast development

BACKGROUND

A secular trend towards earlier age at menarche has been reported, but the trend in breast development is less clear. We reviewed the evidence on the relationship between in utero and early life events and breast onset/development.

METHODS

Eligible studies were identified in PubMed and Embase databases. We selected studies in which female human exposure during fetal or the first years of life was measured or estimated, and associations with breast onset or development were evaluated.

RESULTS

Of the 49 cohort studies and 5 cross-sectional studies identified, 43 provided sufficient data to assess associations. High maternal weight, primiparity, and early weight gain, were related to an increased risk of early breast onset/development in most of the studies that analysed these associations, whereas late breast onset/development was associated with preterm birth. Results were inconsistent for smoking in pregnancy, maternal hypertensive disorders, breastfeeding, diabetes, and small for gestational age. No association emerged for maternal age at delivery, alcohol drinking, and selected drug use during pregnancy, and low birth weight.

CONCLUSIONS

The results of this review show that high maternal weight, primiparity and early weight gain were associated with an increased risk of early breast onset/development. Late breast onset/development was associated with preterm birth. Breast development is a key physical marker of puberty onset, and early puberty development is linked to consequences that can reverberate throughout life. Answering the questions about the interconnections between pre/postnatal environmental exposures and their impact on puberty, represents an important area of multidisciplinary research.

Cancer mortality predictions for 2023 in Latin America with focus on stomach cancer

OBJECTIVE

We estimated cancer mortality statistics for the current year in seven major Latin American countries.

METHODS

We retrieved official death certification data and population figures from the WHO and the United Nations databases for the 1970-2020 calendar period. We considered mortality from all neoplasms combined and for 10 major cancer sites. We estimated the number of deaths and age-standardized mortality rates for the year 2023.

RESULTS

Age-standardized mortality rates for all cancers combined are predicted to decline in all countries, in both sexes, apart from Venezuelan women. The lowest predicted total cancer mortality rates are in Mexico, 69.8/100 000 men and 62.5/100 000 women. The highest rates are in Cuba with 133.4/100 000 men and 90.2/100 000 women. Stomach cancer is predicted to decline steadily in all countries considered, but remains the first-ranking site for men in Chile (14.3/100 000) and Colombia (11/100 000). Colorectal cancer rates also tended to decline but remain comparatively high in Argentina (14/100 000 men). Breast cancer rates were high in Argentinian women (16.5/100 000) though they tended to decline in all countries. Lung cancer mortality rates are also predicted to decline, however, rates remain exceedingly high in Cuba (30.5/100 000 men and 17.2/100 000 women) as opposed to Mexico (5.6/100 000 men and 3.2/10 000 women). Declines are also projected for cancer of the uterus, but rates remain high, particularly in Argentina and Cuba (10/100 000 women), and Venezuela (13/100 000 women) due to inadequate screening and cervical cancer control.

CONCLUSION

Certified cancer mortality remains generally lower in Latin America (apart from Cuba), as compared to North America and Europe; this may be partly due to death certification validity.

Risk prediction models for endometrial cancer: development and validation in an international consortium

BACKGROUND

Endometrial cancer risk stratification may help target interventions, screening, or prophylactic hysterectomy to mitigate the rising burden of this cancer. However, existing prediction models have been developed in select cohorts and have not considered genetic factors.

METHODS

We developed endometrial cancer risk prediction models using data on postmenopausal White women aged 45-85 years from 19 case-control studies in the Epidemiology of Endometrial Cancer Consortium (E2C2). Relative risk estimates for predictors were combined with age-specific endometrial cancer incidence rates and estimates for the underlying risk factor distribution. We externally validated the models in 3 cohorts: Nurses' Health Study (NHS), NHS II, and the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian (PLCO) Cancer Screening Trial.

RESULTS

Area under the receiver operating characteristic curves for the epidemiologic model ranged from 0.64 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.62 to 0.67) to 0.69 (95% CI = 0.66 to 0.72). Improvements in discrimination from the addition of genetic factors were modest (no change in area under the receiver operating characteristic curves in NHS; PLCO = 0.64 to 0.66). The epidemiologic model was well calibrated in NHS II (overall expected-to-observed ratio [E/O] = 1.09, 95% CI = 0.98 to 1.22) and PLCO (overall E/O = 1.04, 95% CI = 0.95 to 1.13) but poorly calibrated in NHS (overall E/O = 0.55, 95% CI = 0.51 to 0.59).

CONCLUSIONS

Using data from the largest, most heterogeneous study population to date (to our knowledge), prediction models based on epidemiologic factors alone successfully identified women at high risk of endometrial cancer. Genetic factors offered limited improvements in discrimination. Further work is needed to refine this tool for clinical or public health practice and expand these models to multiethnic populations.

Risk factors for head and neck cancer in more and less developed countries: Analysis from the INHANCE consortium

OBJECTIVE

We analyzed the pooled case-control data from the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology (INHANCE) consortium to compare cigarette smoking and alcohol consumption risk factors for head and neck cancer between less developed and more developed countries.

SUBJECTS AND METHODS

The location of each study was categorized as either a less developed or more developed country. We compared the risk of overall head and neck cancer and cancer of specific anatomic subsites associated with cigarette smoking and alcohol consumption. Additionally, age and sex distribution between categories was compared.

RESULTS

The odds ratios for head and neck cancer sites associated with smoking duration differed between less developed and more developed countries. Smoking greater than 20 years conferred a higher risk for oral cavity and laryngeal cancer in more developed countries, whereas the risk was greater for oropharynx and hypopharynx cancer in less developed countries. Alcohol consumed for more than 20 years conferred a higher risk for oropharynx, hypopharynx, and larynx cancer in less developed countries. The proportion of cases that were young (<45 years) or female differed by country type for some HNC subsites.

CONCLUSION

These findings suggest the degree of industrialization and economic development affects the relationship between smoking and alcohol with head and neck cancer.

Yoghurt Intake and Gastric Cancer: A Pooled Analysis of 16 Studies of the StoP Consortium

BACKGROUND

Yoghurt can modify gastrointestinal disease risk, possibly acting on gut microbiota. Our study aimed at exploring the under-investigated association between yoghurt and gastric cancer (GC).

METHODS

We pooled data from 16 studies from the Stomach Cancer Pooling (StoP) Project. Total yoghurt intake was derived from food frequency questionnaires. We calculated study-specific odds ratios (ORs) of GC and the corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for increasing categories of yoghurt consumption using univariate and multivariable unconditional logistic regression models. A two-stage analysis, with a meta-analysis of the pooled adjusted data, was conducted.

RESULTS

The analysis included 6278 GC cases and 14,181 controls, including 1179 cardia and 3463 non-cardia, 1191 diffuse and 1717 intestinal cases. The overall meta-analysis revealed no association between increasing portions of yoghurt intake (continuous) and GC (OR = 0.98, 95% CI = 0.94-1.02). When restricting to cohort studies, a borderline inverse relationship was found (OR = 0.93, 95% CI = 0.88-0.99). The adjusted and unadjusted OR were 0.92 (95% CI = 0.85-0.99) and 0.78 (95% CI = 0.73-0.84) for any vs. no yoghurt consumption and GC risk. The OR for 1 category of increase in yoghurt intake was 0.96 (95% CI = 0.91-1.02) for cardia, 1.03 (95% CI = 1.00-1.07) for non-cardia, 1.12 (95% CI = 1.07-1.19) for diffuse and 1.02 (95% CI = 0.97-1.06) for intestinal GC. No effect was seen within hospital-based and population-based studies, nor in men or women.

CONCLUSIONS

We found no association between yoghurt and GC in the main adjusted models, despite sensitivity analyses suggesting a protective effect. Additional studies should further address this association.

Attributable Fraction of Cancer Related to Occupational Exposure in Italy

BACKGROUND

Exposure to occupational carcinogens is an important and avoidable cause of cancer. We aimed to provide an evidence-based estimate of the burden of occupation-related cancers in Italy.

METHODS

The attributable fraction (AF) was calculated based on the counterfactual scenario of no occupational exposure to carcinogens. We included exposures classified as IARC group 1 and with reliable evidence of exposure in Italy. Relative risk estimates for selected cancers and prevalences of exposure were derived from large-scale studies. Except for mesothelioma, a 15-20-year latency period between exposure and cancer was considered. The data on cancer incidence in 2020 and mortality in 2017 in Italy were obtained from the Italian Association of Cancer Registries.

RESULTS

The most prevalent exposures were UV radiation (5.8%), diesel exhaust (4.3%), wood dust (2.3%) and silica dust (2.1%). Mesothelioma had the largest AF to occupational carcinogens (86.6%), followed by sinonasal cancer (11.8%) and lung cancer (3.8%). We estimated that 0.9% of cancer cases (N~3500) and 1.6% of cancer deaths (N~2800) were attributable to occupational carcinogens in Italy. Of these, about 60% were attributable to asbestos, 17.5% to diesel exhaust, followed by chromium and silica dust (7% and 5%).

CONCLUSIONS

Our estimates provide up-to-date quantification of the low, but persistent, burden of occupational cancers in Italy.

Cancers attributable to infectious agents in Italy

OBJECTIVES

To provide an evidence-based, comprehensive assessment of the current burden of infection-related cancers in Italy.

METHODS

We calculated the proportion of cancers attributable to infectious agents (Helicobacter pylori [Hp]; hepatitis B virus [HBV] and hepatitis C virus [HCV]; human papillomavirus [HPV]; human herpesvirus-8 [HHV8]; Epstein-Barr virus [EBV]; and human immunodeficiency virus [HIV]) to estimate the burden of infection-related cancer incidence (2020) and mortality (2017). Data on the prevalence of infections were derived from cross-sectional surveys of the Italian population, and relative risks from meta-analyses and large-scale studies. Attributable fractions were calculated based on the counterfactual scenario of a lack of infection.

RESULTS

We estimated that 7.6% of total cancer deaths in 2017 were attributable to infections, with a higher proportion in men (8.1%) than in women (6.9%). The corresponding figures for incident cases were 6.5%, 6.9% and 6.1%. Hp was the first cause of infection-related cancer deaths (3.3% of the total), followed by HCV (1.8%), HIV (1.1%), HBV (0.9%), HPV, EBV and HHV8 (each ≤0.7%). Regarding incidence, 2.4% of the new cancer cases were due to Hp, 1.3% due to HCV, 1.2% due to HIV, 1.0% due to HPV, 0.6% due to HBV and <0.5% due to EBV and HHV8.

CONCLUSIONS

Our estimate of 7.6% of cancer deaths and 6.9% of incident cases that were attributable to infections in Italy is higher than those estimated in other developed countries. Hp is the major cause of infection-related cancer in Italy. Prevention, screening and treatment policies are needed to control these cancers, which are largely avoidable.

Mushroom consumption and risk of gastric cancer: a pooled analysis within the stomach cancer pooling project and a combined meta-analysis with other observational studies

Edible mushrooms have high concentrations of vitamins and minerals. They are considered 'functional foods' for their disease-prevention properties. Mushroom consumption may reduce the risk of gastric cancer, the fifth most common cancer worldwide. We investigated the association between mushroom consumption and gastric cancer risk in a pooled analysis within the Stomach Cancer Pooling (StoP) Project and in a meta-analysis that also included previously published studies. A total of 3900 gastric cancer cases and 7792 controls from 11 studies were included in the StoP analysis. Mushroom consumption was measured using food frequency questionnaires. Higher mushroom consumption was associated with a lower risk of gastric cancer [relative risk (RR) for the highest vs. lowest consumption categories, 0.82; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.71-0.95]. The corresponding RRs were 0.59 (95% CI, 0.26-1.33) in a meta-analysis of four previously published studies and 0.77 for all studies combined (95% CI, 0.63-0.95; n = 15 studies). In geographic subgroup analysis, the pooled risk in Western Pacific countries was (RR, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.40-0.87; n = 6). The stronger effect in Asian countries may reflect high level of antioxidants in mushroom species consumed in Asia.

Canned Fish Consumption and Upper Digestive Tract Cancers

Canned fish is a widely consumed and affordable food whose effect on cancer risk has been little investigated. We studied its effect on risk of upper digestive tract cancers using data from a network of hospital-based case-control studies from Northern Italy providing information about canned fish consumption as a separate item and including a total of 946 patients with oral cavity and pharynx cancer, 304 patients with esophageal cancer, 230 patients with gastric cancer and 3273 controls. Twenty-three percent of patients with cancer of the oral cavity or pharynx and 26% of those with cancer of the stomach consumed ≥1 serving per week of canned fish, compared to 40% and 49% of the respective control group. Among cases of esophageal cancer and controls 22% consumed ≥1 serving per week of canned fish. Odds ratios for ≥1 vs <1 portion per week were 0.79 (95% Confidence Interval, CI: 0.64-0.97) for cancer of the oral cavity and pharynx, and 0.59 (95% CI: 0.41-0.86) for stomach cancer, whereas there was no inverse association with esophageal cancer. These findings suggest a favorable role of canned fish for selected upper digestive tract cancers.

Trends in gastric cancer mortality 1990-2019 in 36 countries worldwide, with predictions to 2025, and incidence, overall and by subtype

BACKGROUND

Gastric cancer (GC) incidence is declining heterogeneously worldwide. We aimed to calculate updated mortality trends for GC.

METHODS

We investigated time trends for selected countries using the World Health Organization database. We computed age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) per 100,000 persons over the 1990-2019 period. We reported rates for the 2010-2014 and 2015-19 calendar periods, and the corresponding percent changes. We used joinpoint regression analysis to identify changes in the slope of mortality trends, and predict the number of deaths and rates for 2025. We also reported 2008-2012 incidence rates of cardia and noncardia GC.

RESULTS

Mortality trends from GC have been favorable since 1990 for all countries analyzed and the European Union (EU 27), in both sexes and all ages. GC mortality is predicted to decline in all countries for both sexes, except for French and US women aged 35-64 years, and Canadian men aged 35-64. The highest proportions of cardia GC were observed in Northern and Central Europe while the lowest ones in Southern and Eastern Europe. Elsewhere, the highest proportions were registered in countries with low incidence and mortality rates, whereas high-mortality countries showed lower proportions of cardia GC.

CONCLUSION

Observed and predicted GC mortality trends declined in most countries in both sexes, with few exceptions, likely due to the control of GC risk factors, in particular Hp infection.

EUROPEAN CANCER MORTALITY PREDICTIONS FOR THE YEAR 2023 WITH FOCUS ON LUNG CANCER

BACKGROUND

We aimed to predict cancer mortality figures for 2023 for the European Union (EU-27), its five most populous countries, and the UK. We focused on mortality from lung cancer.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Using cancer death certifications and population data from the World Health Organization and EUROSTAT databases for 1970-2018 we predicted numbers of deaths and age-standardized rates (ASR) for 2023 for all cancers combined and the ten most common cancer sites. We investigated the changes in trends over the observed period. The number of avoided deaths over the period 1989-2023 were estimated for all cancers as well as lung cancer.

RESULTS

We predicted 1,261,990 cancer deaths for 2023 in the EU-27, corresponding to ASRs of 123.8/100,000 men (-6.5% vs 2018) and 79.3 for women (-3.7%). Over 1989-2023, about 5,862,600 million cancer deaths were avoided in the EU-27 compared with peak rates in 1988. Most cancers displayed favourable predicted rates, with the exceptions of pancreatic cancer, that was stable in EU men (8.2/100,000) and rose 3.4% in EU women (5.9/100,000), and female lung cancer which however tends to level off (13.6/100,000). Steady declines are predicted for colorectal, breast prostate, leukemia, stomach in both sexes and male bladder cancers. The focus on lung cancer showed falls in mortality for all age groups in men. Female lung cancer mortality declined in the young -35.8% (ASR 0.8/100,000) and middle aged (-7%, ASR: 31.2/100,000) but still increased 10% in the elderly (65+ years).

CONCLUSION

The advancements in tobacco control are reflected in favorable lung cancer trends, and should be pushed further. Greater efforts on the control of overweight and obesity, alcohol consumption, infection and related neoplasms, together with improvements in screening, early diagnosis and treatments may achieve a further 35% reduction on cancer mortality in the EU by 2035.

Mortality patterns of soft-tissue sarcomas worldwide up to 2018, with predictions for 2025

OBJECTIVE

The epidemiological evidence on soft-tissue sarcoma (STS) mortality is inconsistent in geographic and time coverage. This study provides mortality trends for STSs in selected countries worldwide over the last 2 decades, together with predicted figures for 2025.

METHODS

We extracted official numbers of certified deaths coded as C47 (i.e. malignant neoplasm of peripheral nerves and autonomic nervous system) and C49 (i.e. malignant neoplasm of other connective and soft tissue) according to the 10th Revision of the International Classification of Disease and population estimates from the WHO and the Pan American Health Organization databases. We computed age-standardized (world standard population) mortality rates (ASMRs). We used joinpoint regression analysis to identify significant changes in trends and to predict death numbers and rates for 2025.

RESULTS

The pattern emerging from the number of deaths and ASMRs up to 2018 shows an increase in most countries in both sexes. Around 2015 to 2018, ASMRs differed by 2.5-fold in both sexes with the highest rates being registered in Central-Eastern Europe, North America and Australia, while the lowest ones in Latin America, Japan, and Korea. In 2025, the number of STS deaths is predicted to increase in most countries and both sexes, and unfavourable rates are predicted in Central Europe in both sexes.

CONCLUSION

In addition to improvements in STSs registration, unfavourable mortality rates reported in this study reflect inadequate referral of patients with STSs to high-volume multidisciplinary centres, as well as insufficient advancements in STS prevention, diagnosis, and treatments.

Intake of prebiotic fibers and the risk of laryngeal cancer: the PrebiotiCa study

PURPOSE

To evaluate whether the intake of specific fibers with prebiotic activity, e.g., inulin-type fructans (ITFs), fructo-oligosaccharides (FOSs), and galacto-oligosaccharides (GOSs), is associated with laryngeal cancer risk.

METHODS

Within the PrebiotiCa study, we used data from a case-control study (Italy, 1992-2009) with 689 incident, histologically confirmed laryngeal cancer cases and 1605 controls. Six prebiotic molecules (ITFs, nystose [FOS], kestose [FOS], 1F-β-fructofuranosylnystose [FOS], raffinose [GOS] and stachyose [GOS]) were quantified in various foods via ad hoc conducted laboratory analyses. Subjects' prebiotic fiber intake was calculated by multiplying food frequency questionnaire intake by the prebiotic content of each food item. The odds ratios (OR) of laryngeal cancer for prebiotic fiber intake were calculated using logistic regression models, including, among others, terms for tobacco, alcohol, and total energy intake.

RESULTS

The intakes of kestose, raffinose and stachyose were inversely associated with laryngeal cancer, with ORs for the highest versus the lowest quartile of 0.70 (95% confidence interval, CI 0.50-0.99) for kestose, 0.65 (95% CI 0.45-0.93) for raffinose and 0.61 (95% CI 0.45-0.83) for stachyose. ITFs, nystose and 1F-β-fructofuranosylnystose were not associated with laryngeal cancer risk. Current smokers and heavy drinkers with medium-low intakes of such prebiotic fibers had, respectively, an over 15-fold increased risk versus never smokers with medium-high intakes and a five to sevenfold increased risk versus never/moderate drinkers with medium-high intakes.

CONCLUSION

Although disentangling the effects of the various components of fiber-rich foods is complex, our results support a favorable role of selected prebiotic fibers on laryngeal cancers risk.

Cancer mortality and predictions for 2022 in selected Australasian countries, Russia, and Ukraine with a focus on colorectal cancer

OBJECTIVE

We aimed at predicting cancer mortality rates for the current year for the Russian Federation, Ukraine, Israel, Hong Kong SAR, Japan, Korea, and Australia, with a focus on colorectal cancer.

METHODS

We retrieved official death certification and population data from the WHO and the United Nations Population Division databases. We analyzed mortality for all cancers combined and for 10 major cancer sites from 1970 to 2019, or the latest available year. We predicted numbers of deaths and age-standardized mortality rates for 2022 using Poisson joinpoint regression models. We estimated the number of averted deaths over the period 1994-2022 because of the decline in mortality rates.

RESULTS

Total cancer mortality declined in all countries and both sexes. Russia had the highest total cancer predicted rates for 2022: 156.4/100 000 (world standard) in men and 81.4 in women; the lowest rates were reported in Israeli men (90.6/100 000) and Korean women (44.5/100 000). Between 1994 and 2022, a total of 1 487 000 deaths were estimated to be avoided in Russia, 502 000 in Ukraine, 58 000 in Israel, 102 000 in Hong Kong SAR, 1 020 000 in Japan, 533 000 in the Republic of Korea, and 263 000 in Australia. Colorectal cancer mortality trends were downward for the last decades with favorable predictions for 2022 in both sexes.

CONCLUSION

In the countries considered, predicted downward trends started later and were less marked than those in the European Union and the USA. Despite overall favorable predictions, colorectal cancer remains one of the major causes of cancer mortality.

Coffee consumption and risk of endometrial cancer: a pooled analysis of individual participant data in the Epidemiology of Endometrial Cancer Consortium (E2C2)

BACKGROUND

Epidemiologic studies suggest that coffee consumption may be inversely associated with risk of endometrial cancer (EC), the most common gynecological malignancy in developed countries. Furthermore, coffee consumption may lower circulating concentrations of estrogen and insulin, hormones implicated in endometrial carcinogenesis. Antioxidants and other chemopreventive compounds in coffee may have anticarcinogenic effects. Based on available meta-analyses, the World Cancer Research Fund (WCRF) concluded that consumption of coffee probably protects against EC.

OBJECTIVES

Our main aim was to examine the association between coffee consumption and EC risk by combining individual-level data in a pooled analysis. We also sought to evaluate potential effect modification by other risk factors for EC.

METHODS

We combined individual-level data from 19 epidemiologic studies (6 cohort, 13 case-control) of 12,159 EC cases and 27,479 controls from the Epidemiology of Endometrial Cancer Consortium (E2C2). Logistic regression was used to calculate ORs and their corresponding 95% CIs. All models were adjusted for potential confounders including age, race, BMI, smoking status, diabetes status, study design, and study site.

RESULTS

Coffee drinkers had a lower risk of EC than non-coffee drinkers (multiadjusted OR: 0.87; 95% CI: 0.79, 0.95). There was a dose-response relation between higher coffee consumption and lower risk of EC: compared with non-coffee drinkers, the adjusted pooled ORs for those who drank 1, 2-3, and >4 cups/d were 0.90 (95% CI: 0.82, 1.00), 0.86 (95% CI: 0.78, 0.95), and 0.76 (95% CI: 0.66, 0.87), respectively (P-trend < 0.001). The inverse association between coffee consumption and EC risk was stronger in participants with BMI > 25 kg/m2.

CONCLUSIONS

The results of the largest analysis to date pooling individual-level data further support the potentially beneficial health effects of coffee consumption in relation to EC, especially among females with higher BMI.

The Association between Peptic Ulcer Disease and Gastric Cancer: Results from the Stomach Cancer Pooling (StoP) Project Consortium

Simple Summary

Gastric cancer (GC) is the fifth most common type of cancer and the fourth most common cause of cancer-related mortality. In this meta-analysis, we utilized SToP consortium data to investigate the association between gastric ulcer (GU) and duodenal ulcer (DU) and development of GC. Among 4106 GC cases and 6922 controls, we detected a positive association between GU and GC (OR = 3.04, 95% CI: 2.07–4.49). On the other hand, no significant association between DU and GC was detected (OR = 1.03, 95% CI: 0.77–1.39). In the pooled analysis, incorporating 11 case–control studies revealed positive association between the gastric ulcer and risk of gastric cancer.

Abstract

Background. Gastric cancer (GC) is the fifth most common type of cancer and the fourth most common cause of cancer-related mortality. Although the risk of GC and peptic ulcer disease (PUD) is known to be increased by H. pylori infection, evidence regarding the direct relationship between PUD and GC across ethnicities is inconclusive. Therefore, we investigated the association between PUD and GC in the Stomach cancer Pooling (StoP) consortium. Methods. History of peptic ulcer disease was collected using a structured questionnaire in 11 studies in the StoP consortium, including 4106 GC cases and 6922 controls. The two-stage individual-participant data meta-analysis approach was adopted to generate a priori. Unconditional logistic regression and Firth’s penalized maximum likelihood estimator were used to calculate study-specific odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association between gastric ulcer (GU)/duodenal ulcer (DU) and risk of GC. Results. History of GU and DU was thoroughly reported and used in association analysis, respectively, by 487 cases (12.5%) and 276 controls (4.1%), and 253 cases (7.8%) and 318 controls (6.0%). We found that GU was associated with an increased risk of GC (OR = 3.04, 95% CI: 2.07–4.49). No association between DU and GC risk was observed (OR = 1.03, 95% CI: 0.77–1.39). Conclusions. In the pooled analysis of 11 case–control studies in a large consortium (i.e., the Stomach cancer Pooling (StoP) consortium), we found a positive association between GU and risk of GC and no association between DU and GC risk.

Adherence to the World Cancer Research Fund/American Institute for Cancer Research recommendations and endometrial cancer risk: a multicentric case-control study

The World Cancer Research Fund/American Institute for Cancer Research (WCRF/AICR) published evidence-based recommendations for cancer prevention focusing on body weight, physical activity, and diet. Our aim is to evaluate whether adherence to the WCRF/AICR recommendations could reduce endometrial cancer risk. We used data from a multicentric, Italian hospital-based case-control study (1992-2006) including 454 endometrial cancer cases and 908 age-matched controls. Adherence to the WCRF/AICR recommendations was measured using a score (range: 0-7) based on seven components: body mass index (BMI), physical activity and five dietary items; higher scores indicated higher adherence. Odds ratios (OR) were estimated by multiple (adjusted) conditional logistic regression models including terms for major confounders and energy intake. Adherence to the WCRF/AICR recommendations was inversely related to endometrial cancer risk (OR = 0·42, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 0·30, 0·61 for the highest compared with the lowest score quartile), with a significant trend of decreasing risk with increasing adherence. An inverse association was also observed for a score including only dietary recommendations (OR = 0·67, 95 % CI 0·46, 0·96 for the highest compared with the lowest score tertile). In stratified analyses, the association was stronger among women with a normal weight, those who were older, and consequently those in post-menopause, and those with ≥ 2 children. In conclusion, high adherence to the WCRF/AICR recommendations has a favourable role in endometrial cancer risk, which is not fully explained by body weight.

Comorbidity patterns, family history and breast cancer risk: a latent class analysis

BACKGROUND

Limited evidence exists on how the presence of multiple conditions affects breast cancer (BC) risk.

METHODS

We used data from a network hospital-based case-control study conducted in Italy and Switzerland, including 3034 BC cases and 3392 controls. Comorbidity patterns were identified using latent class analysis on a set of specific health conditions/diseases. A multiple logistic regression model was used to derive ORs and the corresponding 95% CIs for BC according to the patterns, adjusting for several covariates. A second model was fitted including an additional effect of FH on the comorbidity patterns.

RESULTS

With respect to the 'healthy' pattern, the 'metabolic disorders' one reported an OR of 1.23 (95% CI 1.02 to 1.49) and the 'breast diseases' an OR of 1.86 (95% CI 1.23 to 2.83). The remaining two patterns reported an inverse association with BC, with ORs of 0.77, significant only for the 'hysterectomy, uterine fibroids and bilateral ovariectomy'. In the second model, FH was associated with an increased risk of the 'breast diseases' pattern (OR=4.09, 95% CI 2.48 to 6.74). Non-significant increased risk of the other patterns according to FH emerged.

CONCLUSION

We identified mutually exclusive patterns of comorbidity, confirming the unfavourable role of those related to metabolic and breast disorders on the risk of BC, and the protective effect of those related to common surgical procedures. FH reported an incremented risk of all the comorbidity patterns.

IMPACT

Identifying clusters of comorbidity in patients with BC may help understand their effects and enable clinicians and policymakers to better organise patient and healthcare management.

Peptic ulcer as mediator of the association between risk of gastric cancer and socioeconomic status, tobacco smoking, alcohol drinking and salt intake

BACKGROUND

Peptic ulcer disease (PUD) and gastric cancer (GC) are more prevalent in individuals with low socioeconomic status (SES) and share several risk factors. The aim of this study was to investigate the mediating role of PUD in the association between established risk factors and GC.

METHODS

We conducted a pooled analysis of 12 studies from the Stomach Cancer Pooling Project Consortium, including a total of 4877 GC cases and 11 808 controls. We explored the mediating role of PUD in the association between SES, tobacco smoking, heavy alcohol drinking and salt intake, and GC. Also, we assessed the ORs and 95% CIs of the risk factors and both PUD and GC.

RESULTS

PUD mediated 36% of the smoking effect mainly among men. Other risk factors were only slightly mediated by PUD (SES, 5.3%; heavy alcohol drinking, 3.3%; and salt intake, 2.5%). No significant difference was found when excluding PUD diagnosed within 2 years from GC.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study provides innovative information on the mechanism of stomach mucosal damage leading to PUD and GC, with respect to the effect of tobacco smoking in particular.

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) mortality trends worldwide: An update to 2019

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) incidence, prevalence, mortality and socioeconomic burden are considerable and vary across countries. The aim of the present study was to update the analysis of COPD mortality worldwide using data from the World Health Organization (WHO) up to 2019.

METHODS

We obtained COPD mortality and population data for 22 European countries and the European Union (EU) as a whole, 10 American countries and six other countries from the WHO mortality database. We calculated age-standardized mortality rates in both sexes and examined trends by country with joinpoint analysis between 1994 and 2019.

RESULTS

Between 2005-2007 and 2015-2017, overall COPD mortality decreased in EU men (-16.3%) but increased in women (12.7%) to reach rates of 14.0/100,000 in men and of 6.4/100,000 in women. In the United States, mortality declined in men to 21.3/100,000 but rose in women to 18.3/100,000. Mortality declined in most Latin American countries and all Asian countries, while an increase in Australian women was observed.

CONCLUSION

A steady decrease in COPD mortality was observed in most of countries for men, whilst a different trend was observed in women in several countries. These trends are largely explained by changes in smoking habits, with an additional contribution of air pollution and occupational exposures. Despite past and ongoing tobacco control initiatives, this condition still remains a leading cause of death, in particular in countries with lower socio-demographic indices.

Progress in cancer epidemiology: avoided deaths in Europe over the last three decades

Progress in cancer epidemiology and prevention has been a key determinant of the fall in cancer mortality in Europe. Using mortality and population figures from the WHO and Eurostat databases, we estimated the number of averted cancer deaths in the EU27 over the period 1989-2021, for both sexes, for all cancers, and nine major cancer sites. We also computed the avoided deaths for all cancers in five major European countries and the UK. We estimated a total of 4 958 000 (3 339 000 men and 1 619 000 women) avoided deaths for all neoplasms over the period 1989-2021 and 348 000 (246 000 men and 102 000 women) in 2021 alone in the EU27. For both sexes, we estimated 1 679 000 avoided deaths for stomach cancer, 747 000 for colorectum, 227 000 for bladder, 102 000 for leukemias. Avoided deaths for lung cancer accounted for 1 156 000 in men, while no reduction was estimated for women. For breast and uterine cancer, avoided deaths were about 300 000, for ovary 105 000 and for prostate 352 000. In the UK, a total of 1 061 000 (721 000 men and 340 000 women) deaths was avoided. Elimination of tobacco may avoid a further 20% of cancer mortality by 2050. Control of alcohol, overweight and obesity, and occupational and environmental carcinogens may avoid an additional 10% of cancer deaths. A similar reduction may be due to optimal adoption of cervical, colorectal, breast, and probably, lung and prostate cancer screening. Thus, primary and secondary cancer prevention can avoid an additional third of cancer deaths in Europe up to 2050.

Allium vegetables intake and the risk of gastric cancer in the Stomach cancer Pooling (StoP) Project

BACKGROUND

The role of allium vegetables on gastric cancer (GC) risk remains unclear.

METHODS

We evaluated whether higher intakes of allium vegetables reduce GC risk using individual participant data from 17 studies participating in the "Stomach cancer Pooling (StoP) Project", including 6097 GC cases and 13,017 controls. Study-specific odds ratios (ORs) were pooled using a two-stage modelling approach.

RESULTS

Total allium vegetables intake was inversely associated with GC risk. The pooled OR for the highest versus the lowest study-specific tertile of consumption was 0.71 (95% confidence interval, CI, 0.56-0.90), with substantial heterogeneity across studies (I² > 50%). Pooled ORs for high versus low consumption were 0.69 (95% CI, 0.55-0.86) for onions and 0.83 (95% CI, 0.75-0.93) for garlic. The inverse association with allium vegetables was evident in Asian (OR 0.50, 95% CI, 0.29-0.86) but not European (OR 0.96, 95% CI, 0.81-1.13) and American (OR 0.66, 95% CI, 0.39-1.11) studies. Results were consistent across all other strata.

CONCLUSIONS

In a worldwide consortium of epidemiological studies, we found an inverse association between allium vegetables and GC, with a stronger association seen in Asian studies. The heterogeneity of results across geographic regions and possible residual confounding suggest caution in results interpretation.