Aortic events and relative survival in patients with moderately dilated proximal thoracic aorta

Objectives. This study describes growth, local and remote aortic events, and survival in patients with proximal (root, ascending) aortic diameters just below threshold for operation. Methods. Patients with proximal aortic diameter of 4.5 to 5.4 cm at baseline, were followed with serial computed tomography studies and data collected retrospectively. Aortic growth rate was estimated using mixed effects modelling. Clinical and radiological features associated with outcomes (all-cause death, aortic death, local or remote aortic events (dissection, rupture, intramural hematoma, or intervention)) were assessed with Cox analysis. Survival and freedom from events were estimated using Kaplan-Meier methods. Results. 80 patients underwent 274 CT scans during 265 patient-years. Median proximal aortic growth was 0.2 cm in 3 years. 32 events occurred in 28 patients (35%). Eleven events were local, all elective proximal aortic surgery. Nine events were remote: 5 type B aortic dissections, 3 descending aneurysms undergoing elective repair, and one infrarenal aortic rupture. Twelve patients died, half of type B aortic dissection. Relative survival compared to a matched normal population was 82% (95% confidence limits 55-98%) at 10 years. In Cox analysis, increased descending aortic diameter was an independent predictor of all-cause death (hazard ratio [HR], 1.39) and aortic death (HR 1.96). Conclusions. Descending, but not proximal, aortic growth was predictive of lethal events. The decreased relative survival, the substantial number of remote aortic events and aortic deaths strongly suggest continuous serial CT surveillance of the entire aorta. Other indicators than proximal aortic diameter appear needed to improve management of this patient group.

Management of intracranial cavernous malformations using conservative vs. surgical and/or radiosurgical treatment: A systematic review and meta‑analysis

Intracranial cavernous malformations (CMs) are vascular lesions with a high bleeding rate. At present, the debate regarding their treatment is still ongoing. The present systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to evaluate the safety of surgery or radiosurgery (SRS) for the management of CMs and to determine their potential outcomes compared with conservative treatment. The present systematic review and meta-analysis investigated the relative articles involving the management of intracranial CMs, namely their natural history (conservative treatment) vs. surgical/SRS treatment through electronic databases until June, 2023. The collected variables included the first author's name, the study period covered, the year of publication, the total number of patients examined and their age, and the number of males. In total, six articles met the eligibility criteria. The total number of patients was 399 (157 in the surgery/SRS group and 242 in the conservative treatment group). The results revealed that surgical or SRS management is a safe procedure for CMs compared with conservative treatment. Notably, the use of hemosiderin in the pre-MRI, the free of seizures parameter and the neurological deficit parameters were associated with improved outcomes in the surgical or SRS group of patients.

Estimation of age of onset and progression of breast cancer by absolute risk dependent on polygenic risk score and other risk factors

BACKGROUND

Genetic, lifestyle, reproductive, and anthropometric factors are associated with the risk of developing breast cancer. However, it is not yet known whether polygenic risk score (PRS) and absolute risk based on a combination of risk factors are associated with the risk of progression of breast cancer. This study aims to estimate the distribution of sojourn time (pre-clinical screen-detectable period) and mammographic sensitivity by absolute breast cancer risk derived from polygenic profile and the other risk factors.

METHODS

The authors used data from a population-based case-control study. Six categories of 10-year absolute risk based on different combinations of risk factors were derived using the Breast and Ovarian Analysis of Disease Incidence and Carrier Estimation Algorithm. Women were classified into low, medium, and high-risk groups. The authors constructed a continuous-time multistate model. To calculate the sojourn time, they simulated the trajectories of subjects through the disease states.

RESULTS

There was little difference in sojourn time with a large overlap in the 95% confidence interval (CI) between the risk groups across the six risk categories and PRS studied. However, the age of entry into the screen-detectable state varied by risk category, with the mean age of entry of 53.4 years (95% CI, 52.2-54.1) and 57.0 years (95% CI, 55.1-57.7) in the high-risk and low-risk women, respectively.

CONCLUSION

In risk-stratified breast screening, the age at the start of screening, but not necessarily the frequency of screening, should be tailored to a woman's risk level. The optimal risk-stratified screening strategy that would improve the benefit-to-harm balance and the cost-effectiveness of the screening programs needs to be studied.

The natural history of celiac artery aneurysms

OBJECTIVES

The goal of this study was to document the natural history of celiac artery aneurysms (CAAs).

BACKGROUND

Celiac artery aneurysms are rare. Existing literature is skewed towards outcomes after intervention of large, symptomatic aneurysms but the behavior of untreated CAAs is poorly understood.

METHODS

This is a single institution, retrospective analysis of patients with CAA diagnosed by CT imaging (2015-2019) identified through an institutional radiology database. Radiologic, demographic, and follow-up data were analyzed. The primary endpoint was the mean growth rate of CAAs.

RESULTS

Of the 76 patients included, 86.8% were men with a mean age at presentation of 69.8 years. The mean CAA diameter on index imaging was 15.4 +/- 3.8 mm (range, 7-30 mm). All were classified as true aneurysms and 76.3% were saccular. All patients had clinical follow-up with mean follow-up 31.2 months +/- 21.6 months. No patient developed symptoms or rupture. The mean radiological follow-up among 45 patients was 25.2 +/- 16.8 months. Over this period, 16 CAAs (35.6%) enlarged, while 29 (64.4%) remained stable. One patient (1.3%) underwent intervention for increasing size in the setting of a chronic dissection. On multivariate analysis, age <70 was significantly associated with increased risk of aneurysm growth.

CONCLUSIONS

In this institutional review of patients with CAAs, the majority of aneurysms remained stable in size, with no patients developing symptoms or rupture over clinical follow-up. Given the observed benign behavior of these aneurysms, guidelines that suggest conservative management of CAAs less than 2 cm seems appropriate.

Clinical course of patients with conservatively managed cerebral cavernous malformations

INTRODUCTION

There is uncertainty whether patients with a cerebral cavernous malformation (CCM) should undergo conservative or surgical treatment, resulting in practice variation among hospitals. Our objective was to report clinical outcomes of patients with primarily conservatively managed CCMs.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

This single-center cohort study included consecutive adult CCM patients, diagnosed in 2000-2023, who underwent conservative management as primary treatment strategy. Data were extracted from medical records, and we systematically conducted telephone and questionnaire follow-up. Functional status was assessed on the modified Rankin Scale (mRS).

RESULTS

Of 345 patients, we included 265 patients with a CCM (median age 46 years; 45% male). At baseline, 131 (49%) patients presented with symptomatic hemorrhage (SH), and 134 (51%) with other symptoms or asymptomatically. During 58 months (IQR 35-94) median follow-up, 51 (19%) patients experienced a SH, 33 (12%) a seizure, and 13 (5%) focal neurological deficits. Fourteen (5%) patients underwent intervention (surgery n = 11, radiosurgery n = 4). Presentation with SH was associated with higher annual bleeding rates (6.0% vs 1.5%, p < 0.001), and higher cumulative 5-/10-year bleeding risks (31%/41% vs 7%, p < 0.001). Brainstem CCM was associated with higher cumulative 5-/10-year bleeding risks (27%/38% vs 17%/21%, p = 0.038). Nineteen (7%) patients died; two (0.8%) directly attributable to CCM. Of 246 surviving patients, 205 (83%) completed the questionnaire. At follow-up, 172/224 (77%) patients were functionally independent (mRS score ⩽2).

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION

The majority of conservatively managed CCM patients remained free of a SH during follow-up. Few patients required intervention, and death attributable to the CCM was rare. These data may help patient counseling and treatment decisions.

Insomnia is more likely to persist than remit after a time of stress and uncertainty: a longitudinal cohort study examining trajectories and predictors of insomnia symptoms

STUDY OBJECTIVES

The study aimed to characterize insomnia symptom trajectories over 12 months during a time of stress and uncertainty, the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. It also aimed to investigate sleep and psychological predictors of persistent insomnia symptoms.

METHODS

This longitudinal cohort study comprised 2069 participants with and without insomnia symptoms during the first year of the pandemic. Participants completed online surveys investigating sleep, insomnia, and mental health at four timepoints over 12 months (April 2020-May 2021). Additional trait-level cognitive/psychological questionnaires were administered at 3 months only.

RESULTS

Six distinct classes of insomnia symptoms emerged: (1) severe persistent insomnia symptoms (21.65%), (2) moderate persistent insomnia symptoms (32.62%), (3) persistent good sleep (32.82%), (4) severe insomnia symptoms at baseline but remitting over time (2.27%), (5) moderate insomnia symptoms at baseline but remitting over time (7.78%), and (6) good sleep at baseline but deteriorating into insomnia symptoms over time (2.85%). Persistent insomnia trajectories were predicted by high levels of sleep reactivity, sleep effort, pre-sleep cognitive arousal, and depressive symptoms at baseline. A combination of high sleep reactivity and sleep effort reduced the odds of insomnia remitting. Higher sleep reactivity also predicted the deterioration of good sleep into insomnia symptoms over 12 months. Lastly, intolerance of uncertainty emerged as the only trait-level cognitive/psychological predictor of insomnia trajectory classes.

CONCLUSIONS

Insomnia was more likely to persist than remit over the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. Addressing sleep reactivity and sleep effort appears critical for reducing insomnia persistence rates after times of stress and uncertainty.

A study concept of expeditious clinical enrollment for genetic modifier studies in Charcot-Marie-Tooth neuropathy 1A

BACKGROUND

Caused by duplications of the gene encoding peripheral myelin protein 22 (PMP22), Charcot-Marie-Tooth disease type 1A (CMT1A) is the most common hereditary neuropathy. Despite this shared genetic origin, there is considerable variability in clinical severity. It is hypothesized that genetic modifiers contribute to this heterogeneity, the identification of which may reveal novel therapeutic targets. In this study, we present a comprehensive analysis of clinical examination results from 1564 CMT1A patients sourced from a prospective natural history study conducted by the RDCRN-INC (Inherited Neuropathy Consortium). Our primary objective is to delineate extreme phenotype profiles (mild and severe) within this patient cohort, thereby enhancing our ability to detect genetic modifiers with large effects.

METHODS

We have conducted large-scale statistical analyses of the RDCRN-INC database to characterize CMT1A severity across multiple metrics.

RESULTS

We defined patients below the 10th (mild) and above the 90th (severe) percentiles of age-normalized disease severity based on the CMT Examination Score V2 and foot dorsiflexion strength (MRC scale). Based on extreme phenotype categories, we defined a statistically justified recruitment strategy, which we propose to use in future modifier studies.

INTERPRETATION

Leveraging whole genome sequencing with base pair resolution, a future genetic modifier evaluation will include single nucleotide association, gene burden tests, and structural variant analysis. The present work not only provides insight into the severity and course of CMT1A, but also elucidates the statistical foundation and practical considerations for a cost-efficient and straightforward patient enrollment strategy that we intend to conduct on additional patients recruited globally.

Oncogenic Oral Human Papillomavirus Clearance Patterns over 10 Years

BACKGROUND

Effective screening for oropharyngeal cancer is lacking. Four oncogenic HPV clearance definitions were explored to understand long-term natural history for persistent oncogenic oral HPV (oncHPV), the precursor of oropharyngeal cancer.

METHODS

Prospective multicenter cohort of participants living with/at-risk for HIV, with oral rinse and gargle samples collected every 6 to 12 months for up to 10 years and tested for oncHPV. HPV clearance definitions included 1 (clear1), 2 (clear2), 3 (clear3) consecutive negatives, or being negative at last two visits (clearlast).

RESULTS

Median time to clearance of oncHPV exceeded 2 years for conservative definitions (clear3: 2.38, clearlast: 2.43), but not lenient (clear1: 0.68, clear2: 1.15). By clear3, most incident infections cleared at 2, 5, 8 years (55.1%, 75.6%, 79.1%), contrary to prevalent infections (37.1%, 52.5%, 59.5%, respectively). In adjusted analysis, prevalent oncHPV, older age, male sex, and living with HIV were associated with reduced clearance. Of 1,833 subjects screened, 13.8% had prevalent oncHPV and 47.5% of those infections persisted ≥5 years, representing 6.5% of persons screened. Two men with prevalent oral HPV16 developed incident oropharyngeal cancer [IR = 1.62 per 100 person-years; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.41-6.4]. Many with oral HPV16 persisted ≥5 years (and/or developed HPV-oropharyngeal cancer) among those with 2 (72.2%), ≥2 of first 3 (65.7%), or 3 (80.0%) consecutive positive oHPV16 tests, but not after 1 (39.4%).

CONCLUSIONS

In our 10-year study, most incident infections cleared quickly. However, half of prevalent oncHPV persisted ≥5 years, suggesting increased risk with persistent oncHPV at >2 visits.

IMPACT

We identified groups with persistent oncHPV at increased risk of oropharyngeal cancer and contextualized risk levels for those with oral HPV16 infection.

Modern Hip Arthroscopy for FAIS May Delay the Natural History of Osteoarthritis in 25% of Patients: A 12-Year Follow-up Analysis

BACKGROUND

Little is known about the effect of modern hip arthroscopy on the natural history of femoroacetabular impingement syndrome (FAIS) with respect to joint preservation.

PURPOSE

To (1) characterize the natural history of FAIS and (2) understand the effect of modern hip arthroscopy by radiographically comparing the hips of patients who underwent only unilateral primary hip arthroscopy with a minimum follow-up of 10 years.

STUDY DESIGN

Cohort study; Level of evidence, 3.

METHODS

Between 2010 and 2012, 619 consecutive patients were reviewed from the practice of a single fellowship-trained hip arthroscopic surgeon. Inclusion criteria were FAIS, bilateral radiographic findings of femoroacetabular impingement, primary unilateral hip arthroscopy (labral repair, femoroplasty, or capsular closure), and minimum 10-year follow-up. The preoperative and minimum 10-year postoperative radiographs of patients were evaluated at each time point. Both operative and nonoperative hips were graded using the Tönnis classification or the presence of hip arthroplasty by 2 independent reviewers. Subgroup analyses were performed.

RESULTS

A total of 200 hips from 100 patients were evaluated at a mean follow-up of 12.0 years. Preoperatively, 98% and 99% of operative and nonoperative hips were evaluated as Tönnis grades 0 and 1, respectively; 5% of nonoperative hips had worse Tönnis grades than operative hips. The nonoperative hip advanced to a worse Tönnis grade in 48% (48/100) of cases compared with 28% (28/100) among operative hips. At follow-up, Tönnis grades between hips were equal in 70% (70/100) of the cases, the operative hip had a better grade 25% (25/100) of the time, and the nonoperative hip had a better grade 5% (5/100) of the time. Modern hip arthroscopy was associated with a relative risk reduction of 42% in osteoarthritis progression. Impingement with borderline dysplasia, age, preoperative Tönnis grade, and alpha angle >65° were key risk factors in the radiographic progression of osteoarthritis.

CONCLUSION

Although the majority of patients (70%) undergoing hip arthroscopy for FAIS did not experience differences between operative and nonoperative hips in terms of the radiographic progression of osteoarthritis, the natural history may be favorably altered for 25% of patients whose Tönnis grade was better after undergoing arthroscopic correction. Modern hip arthroscopy indications and techniques represent a valid joint-preservation procedure conferring a relative risk reduction of 42% in the progression of osteoarthritis. Arthroscopy for mixed patterns of impingement and instability were the fastest to degenerate.

What can a morphometric study of unoperated children teach us about the natural history of metopic synostosis?

OBJECTIVE

Outcomes of surgical repair of trigonocephaly are well reported in the literature, but there is a paucity of information on the natural history of unoperated children. The authors evaluated a group of unoperated children with metopic synostosis to describe the natural change in head shape over time.

METHODS

A database was screened for scans of children with unoperated trigonocephaly (2010-2021). Multisuture cases and those with a metopic ridge were excluded. Three-dimensional surface scans (3D stereophotogrammetry/CT) were used for morphological analysis. Nine previously published parameters were used: frontal angle (FA30°), anteroposterior (AP) volume ratio (APVR), AP area ratio (APAR), AP width ratios 1 and 2 (APWR1 and APWR2), and 4 AP diagonal ratios (30° right APDR [rAPDR30], 30° left APDR [lAPDR30], 60° right APDR [rAPDR60], and 60° left APDR [lAPDR60]).

RESULTS

Ninety-seven scans were identified from a cohort of 316 patients with a single metopic suture, in which the male-to-female ratio was 2.7:1. Ages at the time of the scan ranged from 9 days to 11 years and were stratified into 4 groups: group 1, < 6 months; group 2, 6-12 months; group 3, 1-3 years; and group 4, > 3 years. Significant improvements were detected in 5 parameters (APVR, APAR, APWR1, rAPDR30, and lAPDR30) over time, whereas no significant differences were found in FA30, APWR2, rAPDR60, and lAPDR60 between age groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Forehead shape (surface area and volume), as well as narrowing and anterolateral contour at the frontal points, differed significantly over time without surgery. However, forehead angulation, narrowing, and anterolateral contour at temporal points did not show significant differences. This knowledge will aid in surgical and parental decision-making.

Natural history of periodontal disease: The original Sri Lanka and Oslo studies

Susceptibility to periodontal disease depends on individual factors within the host response to the bacterial challenge. The study of these factors requires longitudinal studies of an undisturbed development of the disease process. On the basis of the original longitudinal studies on the natural histology of periodontal disease staged in Sri Lanka and Oslo/Norway, several analyses of periodontal parameters and tooth status have been performed. The main findings were that in the first 20 years of complete absence of oral hygiene practices or preventive services attachment was lost at various rates. Three groups of subjects could be identified: rapidly progressing (RP) (8%), moderately progressing (MP) (81%), and subjects with no disease progression (NP) (11%). In the second two decades, the RP subjects have lost most of their teeth and no NP patients were identified anymore. The progression rate in these two decades was much slower, and the tooth mortality decreased. It could be predicted that subjects who had lost more than 2 mm at age 30 would not maintain a functional dentition at age 60. The corresponding control population in Oslo was used to study the influence of gingival inflammation on the initiation and progression of periodontal disease. The pattern and rates of attachment loss were identified in a population that was exposed to optimal and regular preventive services from age 3 onward. In the observation period of 26 years, it could be demonstrated that gingival inflammation varied little throughout adult life and always bleeding sites occurred consistently in 10% to 20%. The role of ongoing gingivitis in the pathogenesis of attachment loss was identified and also reflected stability whenever it was absent. Tooth mortality was only found in subjects with ongoing gingivitis. After 50 years of tooth age, 63% of the teeth were still maintained, while 99.8% were maintained after 50 years when gingival inflammation had been absent. Consequently, continuous gingivitis represented a risk factor for tooth loss.

"Congenital Stationary Night Blindness: Structure, Function and Genotype - Phenotype Correlations in a cohort of 122 patients."

OBJECTIVE

To examine the molecular causes of Schubert-Bornschein (S-B) congenital stationary night blindness (CSNB), clinically characterize in detail, and assess genotype-phenotype correlations for retinal function and structure.

DESIGN

Retrospective, longitudinal, single center case series.

PARTICIPANTS

122 patients with S-B CSNB attending Moorfields Eye Hospital, United Kingdom.

METHODS

All case notes, results of molecular genetic testing, and optical coherence tomography (OCT) were reviewed.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Molecular genetics, presenting complaints, rates of nystagmus, nyctalopia, photophobia, strabismus, color vision defects and spherical error of refraction (SER). Retinal thickness, outer nuclear layer thickness (ONL) and ganglion cell layer + inner plexiform layer (GCL+IPL) thickness from OCT imaging.

RESULTS

X-linked (CACNA1F and NYX) and autosomal recessive (TRPM1, GRM6, GPR179 and CABP4) genotypes were identified. The mean reported age of onset was 4.94 ± 8.99 years. Over the follow-up period, 95.9% of patients reported reduced visual acuity (VA), half had nystagmus and 64.7% reported nyctalopia. Incomplete CSNB (iCSNB) patients more frequently had nystagmus and photophobia. Nyctalopia was similar for iCSNB and complete CSNB (cCSNB). Color vision data was limited but more defects were found in iCSNB. None of these clinical differences met statistical significance. There was no significant difference between groups in VA, with a mean of 0.46 LogMAR, and remained stable over the course of follow-up. cCSNB patients, specifically those with NYX and TRPM1 variants, were more myopic. CACNA1F patients showed the largest refractive variability and the CABP4 patient was hyperopic. No significant differences were found in OCT structural analysis during the follow-up period.

CONCLUSIONS

Retinal structure in CSNB is stationary and no specific genotype - structure correlates were identified. VA appears to be relatively stable, with rare instances of progression.

Detection and Clearance of Type-Specific and Phylogenetically Related Genital Human Papillomavirus Infections in Young Women in New Heterosexual Relationships

BACKGROUND

Understanding the natural history of human papillomavirus (HPV) infections is essential to cervical cancer prevention planning. We estimated HPV type-specific infection detection and clearance in young women.

METHODS

The HPV Infection and Transmission among Couples through Heterosexual activity (HITCH) study is a prospective cohort of 502 college-age women who recently initiated a heterosexual relationship. We tested vaginal samples collected at 6 clinical visits over 24 months for 36 HPV types. Using rates and Kaplan-Meier analysis, we estimated time-to-event statistics with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for detection of incident infections and clearance of incident and present-at-baseline infections (separately). We conducted analyses at the woman- and HPV-levels, with HPV types grouped by phylogenetic relatedness.

RESULTS

By 24 months, we detected incident infections in 40.4% (CI, 33.4%-48.4%) of women. Incident subgenus 1 (43.4; CI, 33.6-56.4), 2 (47.1; CI, 39.9-55.5), and 3 (46.6; CI, 37.7-57.7) infections cleared at similar rates per 1000 infection-months. We observed similar homogeny in HPV-level clearance rates among present-at-baseline infections.

CONCLUSIONS

Our analyses provide type-specific infection natural history estimates for cervical cancer prevention planning. HPV-level analyses did not clearly indicate that high oncogenic risk subgenus 2 infections persist longer than their low oncogenic risk subgenera 1 and 3 counterparts.

Endemic coronavirus infections are associated with strong homotypic immunity in a US cohort of children from birth to 4 years

BACKGROUND

The endemic coronaviruses OC43, HKU1, NL63 and 229E cause cold-like symptoms and are related to SARS-CoV-2, but their natural histories are poorly understood. In a cohort of children followed from birth to 4 years, we documented all coronavirus infections, including SARS-CoV-2, to understand protection against subsequent infections with the same virus (homotypic immunity) or a different coronavirus (heterotypic immunity).

METHODS

Mother-child pairs were enrolled in metropolitan Cincinnati during the third trimester of pregnancy in 2017-18. Mothers reported their child's socio-demographics, risk factors, and weekly symptoms. Mid-turbinate nasal swabs were collected weekly. Blood was collected at 6 weeks, 6, 12, 18, 24 months and annually thereafter. Infections were detected by testing nasal swabs by an RT-PCR multi-pathogen panel and by serum IgG responses. Health care visits were documented from pediatric records. Analysis was limited to 116 children with high sample adherence. Re-consent for monitoring SARS-CoV-2 infections from June 2020 through November 2021 was obtained for 74 (64%) children.

RESULTS

We detected 345 endemic coronavirus infections (1.1 infections/child-year) and 21 SARS-CoV-2 infections (0.3 infections/child-year). Endemic coronavirus and SARS-CoV-2 infections were asymptomatic or mild. Significant protective homotypic immunity occurred after a single infection with OC43 (77%) and HKU1 (84%), and after two infections with NL63 (73%). No heterotypic protection against endemic coronaviruses or SARS-CoV-2 was identified.

CONCLUSIONS

Natural coronavirus infections were common and resulted in strong homotypic immunity but not heterotypic immunity against other coronaviruses, including SARS-CoV-2. Endemic coronavirus and SARS-CoV-2 infections in this US cohort were typically asymptomatic or mild.

Natural History and Risk Factors for Glaucoma Progression in Chinese Patients With Normal-Tension Glaucoma

Purpose

To characterize the natural history of normal-tension glaucoma (NTG) in Chinese patients.

Methods

The prospective observational cohort study included patients with untreated NTG with a minimum follow-up of 2 years. Functional progression was defined by visual field (VF) deterioration, while structural progression was characterized by thinning of the retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL) or ganglion cell inner plexiform layer (GCIPL).

Results

Among 84 participants (mean age, 60.5 years; mean deviation, -5.01 decibels [dB]) with newly diagnosed NTG followed for an average of 69.7 months, 63.1% progressed during the observation period. Specifically, 29.8% progressed by VF, and 48.8% progressed by either RNFL or GCIPL. In Cox proportional hazards analysis, disc hemorrhage (hazard ratio [HR], 2.82; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.48-5.35), female gender (HR, 1.98; 95% CI, 1.08-3.62), and mean IOP during the follow-up period (HR, 1.14 per mm Hg; 95% CI, 1.00-1.31) were significant predictors of glaucomatous progression. Additionally, longer axial length (AL; HR, 0.57 per millimeter; 95% CI, 0.35-0.94) was protective against VF progression faster than -0.50 dB/y, and higher minimum diastolic blood pressure (DBP; HR, 0.96 per mm Hg; 95% CI, 0.92-1.00) was protective against structural progression.

Conclusions

Nearly two-thirds of untreated Chinese patients with NTG progressed over an average follow-up of 70 months by VF, RNFL, or GCIPL. Disc hemorrhage, female gender, higher mean IOP, shorter AL, and lower minimum DBP were significant predictors for disease progression.

Interactions between the metabolic syndrome and alcohol consumption increases the risk of liver disease

Alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD, recently renamed metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease [MASLD]) share many features, including certain pathophysiological mechanisms, susceptibility genes, and histological lesions. However, the natural history of the two diseases, studied separately, is significantly different, with ALD being associated with a higher risk of cirrhosis and liver-related mortality. Moreover, evidence suggests an interactive effect between ALD and metabolic risk factors that are associated with NAFLD on the risk of progressive fibrosis and development of cirrhosis. Patients with both a high consumption of alcohol and metabolic risk factors, such as obesity or diabetes, should therefore be considered a particularly high-risk group for cirrhosis. Additional studies regarding the efficacy of screening for advanced liver fibrosis or cirrhosis in these risk groups are needed. The most effective and established method for reducing the risk of progression in ALD is alcohol abstinence, whereas weight loss is effective in NAFLD. In this narrative review, we introduce the reader to the literature of the field and present key studies showing this interactive effect.

The first full body diffusible iodine-based contrast-enhanced computed tomography dataset and teaching materials for a member of the Testudines

Diffusible iodine-based contrast-enhanced Computed Tomography (diceCT) is now a widely used technique for imaging metazoan soft anatomy. Turtles present a particular challenge for anatomists; gross dissection is inherently destructive and irreversible, whereas their near complete shell of bony plates, covered with keratinous scutes, presents a barrier for iodine diffusion and significantly increases contrast-enhanced CT preparation time. Consequently, a complete dataset visualizing the internal soft anatomy of turtles at high resolution and in three dimensions has not yet been successfully achieved. Here we outline a novel method that augments traditional diceCT preparation with an iodine injection technique to acquire the first full body contrast-enhanced dataset for the Testudines. We show this approach to be an effective method of staining the soft tissues inside the shell. The resulting datasets were processed to produce anatomical 3D models that can be used in teaching and research. As diceCT becomes a widely employed method for nondestructively documenting the internal soft anatomy of alcohol preserved museum specimens, we hope that methods applicable to the more challenging of these, such as turtles, will contribute toward the growing stock of digital anatomy in online repositories.

GenIA, the Genetic Immunology Advisor database for inborn errors of immunity

BACKGROUND

To date, no publicly accessible platform has captured and synthesized all of the layered dimensions of genotypic, phenotypic, and mechanistic information published in the field of inborn errors of immunity (IEIs). Such a platform would represent the extensive and complex landscape of IEIs and could increase the rate of diagnosis in patients with a suspected IEI, which remains unacceptably low.

OBJECTIVE

Our aim was to create an expertly curated, patient-centered, multidimensional IEI database that enables aggregation and sophisticated data interrogation and promotes involvement from diverse stakeholders across the community.

METHODS

The database structure was designed following a subject-centered model and written in Structured Query Language (SQL). The web application is written in Hypertext Preprocessor (PHP), Hypertext Markup Language (HTML), Cascading Style Sheets (CSS), and JavaScript. All data stored in the Genetic Immunology Advisor (GenIA) are extracted by manually reviewing published research articles.

RESULTS

We completed data collection and curation for 24 pilot genes. Using these data, we have exemplified how GenIA can provide quick access to structured, longitudinal, more thorough, comprehensive, and up-to-date IEI knowledge than do currently existing databases, such as ClinGen, Human Phenotype Ontology (HPO), ClinVar, or Online Mendelian Inheritance in Man (OMIM), with which GenIA intends to dovetail.

CONCLUSIONS

GenIA strives to accurately capture the extensive genetic, mechanistic, and phenotypic heterogeneity found across IEIs, as well as genetic paradigms and diagnostic pitfalls associated with individual genes and conditions. The IEI community's involvement will help promote GenIA as an enduring resource that supports and improves knowledge sharing, research, diagnosis, and care for patients with genetic immune disease.

Patterns of neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorder attacks in different age groups and sexes depending on the status of immunosuppressive therapy: A retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

The association between onset age and sex with relapse risk in neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorder (NMOSD) remains inconclusive. We aimed to describe the clinical features of patients with NMOSD in different age groups and sexes and to analyse relapse characteristics pre- and post-immunosuppressive therapy (IST).

METHODS

Patients with NMOSD were retrospectively reviewed from our clinical centre's database. Demographic and clinical data, attack presentation, and disease course pre- and post-IST were investigated. We also analysed the effect of onset age on the annualized relapse rate and relapse risk according to sex and IST status. Interactions on the additive scale between onset age and sex were analysed. A restricted cubic spline was used to analyse potential nonlinear correlations. Longitudinal changes in the Expanded Disability Status Scale score across NMOSD attacks were analysed using linear mixed-effect models.

RESULTS

In total, 533 patients experienced 1394 attacks pre-IST and 753 relapses post-IST. Older age at onset was correlated with more myelitis attacks but fewer optic neuritis attacks, with no sex-related differences in attack presentation. Pre-IST, relapse risk increased with age at onset in women, while a U-shaped correlation between onset age and relapse risk was found in men. Post-IST, an inverted U-shaped association between the predicted relapse risk and onset age was observed in women. Conversely, a negative correlation between the predicted relapse risk and onset age was found in men. Overall, a higher ratio of myelitis attacks was found post-IST.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients of different onset ages and sexes had different relapse patterns before and after IST.

Using Age-Specific Rates for Parametric Survival Function Estimation in Simulation Models

PURPOSE

To describe a procedure for incorporating parametric functions into individual-level simulation models to sample time to event when age-specific rates are available but not the individual data.

METHODS

Using age-specific event rates, regression analysis was used to parametrize parametric survival distributions (Weibull, Gompertz, log-normal, and log-logistic), select the best fit using the R2 statistic, and apply the corresponding formula to assign random times to events in simulation models. We used stroke rates in the Spanish population to illustrate our procedure.

RESULTS

The 3 selected survival functions (Gompertz, Weibull, and log-normal) had a good fit to the data up to 85 y of age. We selected Gompertz distribution as the best-fitting distribution due to its goodness of fit.

CONCLUSIONS

Our work provides a simple procedure for incorporating parametric risk functions into simulation models without individual-level data.

HIGHLIGHTS

We describe the procedure for sampling times to event for individual-level simulation models as a function of age from parametric survival functions when age-specific rates are available but not the individual dataWe used linear regression to estimate age-specific hazard functions, obtaining estimates of parameter uncertainty.Our approach allows incorporating parameter (second-order) uncertainty in individual-level simulation models needed for probabilistic sensitivity analysis in the absence of individual-level survival data.

The Risk of Reinfection or Primary Hepatitis E Virus Infection at a Liver Transplant Center in Brazil: An Observational Cohort Study

The hepatitis E virus is a major etiological agent of chronic hepatitis in immunosuppressed individuals. Seroprevalence in the liver transplantation setting varies according to the seroprevalence of the general population in different countries. This was a prospective cohort study of liver transplant recipients in southeastern Brazil. Recipients were systematically followed for one year, with the objective of determining the prevalence, incidence, and natural history of HEV infection in this population. We included 107 liver transplant recipients and 83 deceased donors. Positivity for anti-HEV IgG was detected in 10.2% of the recipients and in 9.7% of the donors. None of the patients tested positive for HEV RNA at baseline or during follow-up. There were no episodes of reactivation or seroconversion, even in cases of serological donor-recipient mismatch or in recipients with acute hepatitis. Acute and chronic HEV infections seem to be rare events in the region studied. That could be attributable to social, economic, and environmental factors. Our data indicate that, among liver transplant recipients, hepatitis E should be investigated only when there are elevated levels of transaminases with no defined cause, as part of the differential diagnosis of seronegative hepatitis after transplantation.

Phenoconversion in pure autonomic failure: a multicentre prospective longitudinal cohort study

We aimed to describe the clinical features of patients with pure autonomic failure (PAF) preceding phenoconversion that could be useful as predictive markers for advancing α-synuclein-associated neurodegeneration of the brain. Patients diagnosed with PAF were evaluated at 8 Centers (7-US based and 1 European) and enrolled in a longitudinal observational cohort study (NCT01799915). Subjects underwent detailed assessments of motor, sleep, olfactory, cognitive, and autonomic function and were followed prospectively to determine whether they developed parkinsonism or dementia for up to 10 years. We identified incident cases of Parkinson disease (PD), dementia with Lewy bodies (DLB), or multiple system atrophy (MSA) and computed hazard ratios for phenoconversion as functions of clinical features. A total of 209 participants with PAF with a median disease duration of 6 years (IQR: 3-10) were enrolled. Of those, 149 provided follow-up information at an office or telemedicine visit. After a mean follow-up duration of 3 years, 48 (33%) participants phenoconverted (42% to PD, 35% to DLB, and 23% to MSA). Faster phenoconversion from study enrollment to any diagnosis was associated with urinary and sexual dysfunction [HR 5.9, 95%CI: 1.6-22, and HR: 3.6, 95%CI: 1.1-12] followed by subtle motor signs [HR: 2.7, 95%CI: 1.2-6], trouble swallowing [HR 2.5, 95%CI: 1.4-4.5], and changes in speech [HR:2.4, 95%CI:1.1-4.8] at enrollment. Subjects reporting deterioration of handwriting were more likely to phenoconvert to PD (HR: 2.6, 95%CI: 1.1-5.9, ) and those reporting difficulty handling utensils were more likely to phenoconvert to DLB (HR: 6.8, 95%CI: 1.2-38). Patients with a younger age of PAF onset [HR: 11, 95%CI: 2.6-46], preserved olfaction [HR: 8.7, 95%CI: 1.7-45], anhidrosis [HR: 1.8, 95%CI: 1-3.1, p=0.042], and severe urinary problems [HR 1.6, 95%CI: 1-2.5, p=0.033] were more likely to phenoconvert to MSA. The best autonomic predictor of PD was a blunted heart rate increase during the tilt-table test (HR: 6.1, 95%CI: 1.4-26). Patients with PAF have an estimated 12% (95% CI: 9%-15%) per year annual risk following study entry of phenoconverting to a manifest CNS synucleinopathy.

A systematic review of the genus Bolbelasmus Boucomont (Coleoptera, Geotrupidae, Bolboceratinae) from Indochina and surrounding areas

Indochinese species of the genus Bolbelasmus (Coleoptera, Geotrupidae, Bolboceratinae) are reviewed. Three new species, Bolbelasmuschifengi Wang & Li, sp. nov., Bolbelasmusconcavisuturalis Li & Wang, sp. nov. and Bolbelasmusyutangi Li & Wang, sp. nov., are described and illustrated. An annotated checklist and modified key to species of the genus are provided. Information for each species in the checklist includes literature review, synonymy, distribution and type locality.

Active case-finding of tuberculosis compared with symptom-driven standard of care: a modelling analysis

BACKGROUND

In settings with large case detection gaps, active case-finding (ACF) may play a critical role in the uberculosis (TB) response. However, ACF is resource intensive, and its effectiveness depends on whether people detected with TB through ACF might otherwise spontaneously resolve or be diagnosed through routine care. We analysed the potential effectiveness of ACF for TB relative to the counterfactual scenario of routine care alone.

METHODS

We constructed a Markov simulation model of TB natural history, diagnosis, symptoms, ACF and treatment, using a hypothetical reference setting using data from South East Asian countries. We calibrated the model to empirical data using Bayesian methods, and simulated potential 5-year outcomes with an 'aspirational' ACF intervention (reflecting maximum possible effectiveness) compared with the standard-of-care outcomes.

RESULTS

Under the standard of care, 51% (95% credible interval, CrI: 31%, 75%) of people with prevalent TB at baseline were estimated to be diagnosed and linked to care over 5 years. With aspirational ACF, this increased to 88% (95% CrI: 84%, 94%). Most of this difference represented people who were diagnosed and treated through ACF but experienced spontaneous resolution under standard-of-care. Aspirational ACF was projected to reduce the average duration of TB disease by 12 months (95% CrI: 6%, 18%) and TB-associated disability-adjusted life-years by 71% (95% CrI: 67%, 76%).

CONCLUSION

These data illustrate the importance of considering outcomes in a counterfactual standard of care scenario, as well as trade-offs between overdiagnosis and averted morbidity through earlier diagnosis-not just for TB, but for any disease in which population-based screening is recommended.

Ultrasound study of natural progression of ovarian endometriomas

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to determine the natural history of ovarian endometriomas in women who are managed expectantly.

METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study of 83 women with evidence of ovarian endometriomas, who were managed expectantly between April 2007 to May 2022. The study was conducted in the Department of Women's Health, University College London Hospitals and The Gynecology Ultrasound Centre, London, UK. We searched our ultrasound clinic databases to identify women aged 18 years or older with evidence of ovarian endometriomas that were managed expectantly for ≥ 6 months. All women attended for a minimum of two ultrasound scans by a single expert ultrasound operator. In addition to patient demographics, we recorded the number, mean diameter and location of each cyst. The cyst growth rate was expressed as annual change in the mean diameter.

RESULTS

1,922 women attended our gynecology clinic during the study period who were found to have evidence of moderate or severe endometriosis on pelvic ultrasound examination. A total of 83 women had evidence of ovarian endometriomas and were managed expectantly. The median age of women was 39 (range 26 - 51). Each woman had at least two ultrasound scans performed by a single expert operator at a minimum interval of ≥6 months. 50/83 (60%, 95% CI 49-71) women had single cysts and the remainder had multiple cysts. The median number of endometriomas per patient was 1 (range 1 - 5) and the median follow up time was 634 days (range 187 - 2984). 39/83 (47%, 95% CI 36 - 58) women experienced an overall reduction in size of cysts, in 18/83 (22%, 95% CI 13 - 32) the cysts increased in size and in 26/83 (31% 95% CI 22 - 42) women, no meaningful change was observed. The median change in mean diameter of cysts per woman during the study period was -2.7 mm (-57.7 - +39.3), with an annual growth rate of -1.7 mm/year/woman (-24.6 - +42.0). Overall, cysts were smaller at the follow up visit [median diameter 22.3mm (6.7 - 77) vs. 18.5mm (5 - 72) p = 0.009]. We did not identify any clinical characteristics that could reliably predict the chance of endometrioma progression.

CONCLUSION

In the majority of women with ultrasound diagnosis of ovarian endometriomas, the cysts do not increase in size significantly over time and they could be managed expectantly. This evidence may help clinicians when counselling asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic women about the options to manage their ovarian endometriomas. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Aberrant Right Subclavian Artery: Demographics, Morphological Features and Follow up CT Scans Dynamics

Introduction: Aberrant right subclavian artery (ARSA) is the most common of the aortic arch anomalies, occurring in .5% to 1% of the population. There is no standardized follow up protocol, especially in the asymptomatic cases. The purpose of the present study was to evaluate the natural history of ARSA and the role of serial CT scans. Methods: This is a single-center retrospective study of patients with ARSA depicted on chest computed tomography (CT) scans between February 2013 and July 2022. Data were collected from their medical records. Measurements of the aorta at different segments including the aortic diameter at the orifice of ARSA, and ARSA at ostium followed by 1 cm intervals were collected, as well as for follow-up CT scans. Results: 65 patients were diagnosed with ARSA, 70.8% of whom were women. The average age for the cohort was 58.569 ± 16.99 years. The median follow up time was 4 years (range 0-10 years), KM estimated survival after ARSA diagnosis at 1 and 5 years as 97% and 93%, respectively. Nineteen patients had a second CT scan and were included in the morphological CT dynamic analysis, on average of 29 ± 27 months apart (range 7-108). The mean ARSA diameter at origin was larger in the second scan 16.91 ± 4.31 mm compared to the initial scan 16.31 ± 4.96 mm, (P = .04).The mean aortic arch diameter in the first and second CT were 28.54 ± 4.24 and 29.64 ± 5.14 (P = .10), respectively. All other measurements did not disclose any significant enlargement over time. Conclusions: Our cohort demonstrate a benign natural history of ARSA with slow growth rates. However, due to our small sample size we can't draw a clinically sound recommendation on the need for imaging follow up, and further larger cohort with longer follow up interval are required.

Causes of death in individuals with trisomy 18 after the first year of life

Mortality in individuals with trisomy 18 has significantly decreased over the past 20 years, but there is scant literature addressing the prognosis and cause of death in individuals with trisomy 18 and survival past the first year of life (YOL). This study analyzed factors associated with mortality and cause of death in a retrospective cohort of 174 individuals with trisomy 18 and survival past the first YOL, the largest such series to date. Data were collected via retrospective survey of parents of affected individuals. Prenatal diagnosis of trisomy 18; postnatal respiratory distress; maternal age > 35 years; birthweight <2000 g; brain and spinal cord defect(s); atrial and/or ventricular septal defect(s); inability to feed orally without medical assistance; and failure to meet sitting and rolling milestones were associated with mortality in this sample. Cause of death was compared between our cohort of individuals with trisomy 18 and existing literature on those with mortality before the first YOL. Individuals with trisomy 18 with mortality after the first YOL demonstrated a predominance of infectious (n = 10/22) and postoperative (n = 6/22) contributing causes of death, in contrast to the existing literature, which shows a predominance of cardiopulmonary causes of death (e.g., cardiopulmonary arrest, pulmonary hypertension). These findings demonstrate that individuals with trisomy 18 and survival past the first YOL have unique medical needs, but further research is needed to develop clinical guidelines for this growing population.

Extension of the Antero-Posterior Necrotic Regions Associated With Collapse Cessation in Osteonecrosis of the Femoral Head

BACKGROUND

Collapse cessation is of utmost importance following a long period of collapse due to osteonecrosis of the femoral head (ONFH). This study investigated the relationship between collapse cessation and the extent of the necrotic regions of ONFH.

METHODS

Overall, 74 patients who had symptomatic ONFH (collapse < 3 mm) at the first visit with a minimum follow-up of 3 years were included in this study. Patients were categorized based on collapse progression or cessation into the progression and stable groups. The extent of the antero-posterior (AP) and medio-lateral necrotic regions between the groups was assessed using sagittal and coronal sections of T1-magnetic resonance imaging. Additionally, the most effective cutoff value was determined from the receiving operating characteristic curve where collapse cessation could be obtained, while the survival rates were determined with collapse progression as the endpoints were evaluated.

RESULTS

Overall, 45 and 29 patients were in the progression and stable groups, respectively. The AP and medio-lateral necrotic regions were significantly different (P < .01 and P < .01, respectively) between the progression and stable groups. A cutoff value of 62.1% of the AP necrotic regions was determined from the receiving operating characteristic curve analysis. The 5-year survival rates with collapse progression as the endpoints were 5.4 and 77.8% in the AP necrotic regions of ≥62.1 and <62.1%, respectively (P < .01).

CONCLUSIONS

Cases with AP necrotic regions of ≤62.1% can be expected to have collapse cessation, which could be a useful index for ONFH treatment strategies.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Level IV.

The Prospective Natural History Study of Patients with Intractable Venous Malformation and Klippel-Trenaunay Syndrome to Guide Designing a Proof-of-Concept Clinical Trial for Novel Therapeutic Intervention

Background: The natural history of venous malformation (VM) and Klippel-Trenaunay Syndrome (KTS) has not been quantitatively studied. To obtain benchmarks to guide designing clinical trials to assess safety and efficacy of novel drug candidates, the clinical course of the patients was followed for 6 months. Methods and Results: This is a multicenter prospective observational study evaluating the change rate in lesion volume from baseline with magnetic resonance images, as the primary endpoint. In addition, disease severities, performance status (PS), pain visual analog scale (VAS) score, quality of life (QoL), infections, and coagulation markers were also evaluated. Thirty-four patients (VM = 17, KTS = 17, 1-53 of age; median 15.9 years) with measurable lesion volume were analyzed. There was no statistically significant difference in the lesion volume between baseline and day 180, and the mean change rate (standard deviation) was 1.06 (0.28). There were no baseline characteristics that affected the change in lesion volume over 6 months. However, there were patients who showed more than 20% volume change and it was suggested that the lesion volume was largely impacted by local infection. There were no statistically significant changes in pain VAS score, severity, PS, QoL score, D-dimer, and platelet count over 6 months within all patients analyzed. Conclusion: The results showed the representative natural course of VM and KTS for a 6-month period with objective change of lesion volume and other factors, suggesting that it is scientifically reasonable to conduct a Phase 2 proof-of-concept study without a placebo arm, using the results of this study as the control. Clinical Trial Registration: NCT04285723, NCT04589650.

Modeling the multi-state natural history of rare diseases with heterogeneous individual patient data: A simulation study

Multi-state survival models are used to represent the natural history of a disease, forming the basis of a health technology assessment comparing a novel treatment to current practice. Constructing such models for rare diseases is problematic, since evidence sources are typically much sparser and more heterogeneous. This simulation study investigated different one-stage and two-stage approaches to meta-analyzing individual patient data (IPD) in a multi-state survival setting when the number and size of studies being meta-analyzed are small. The objective was to assess methods of different complexity to see when they are accurate, when they are inaccurate and when they struggle to converge due to the sparsity of data. Biologically plausible multi-state IPD were simulated from study- and transition-specific hazard functions. One-stage frailty and two-stage stratified models were estimated, and compared to a base case model that did not account for study heterogeneity. Convergence and the bias/coverage of population-level transition probabilities to, and lengths of stay in, each state were used to assess model performance. A real-world application to Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy, a neuromuscular rare disease, was conducted, and a software demonstration is provided. Models not accounting for study heterogeneity were consistently out-performed by two-stage models. Frailty models struggled to converge, particularly in scenarios of low heterogeneity, and predictions from models that did converge were also subject to bias. Stratified models may be better suited to meta-analyzing disparate sources of IPD in rare disease natural history/economic modeling, as they converge more consistently and produce less biased predictions of lengths of stay.

Unruptured intracranial aneurysms: Why should we focus on small aneurysms? A comprehensive update of recent findings

Intracranial aneurysms (IAs) are a significant public health concern because they have the potential to cause deva-stating consequences, including death and disability. Despite advances in diagnostic and treatment modalities, the outcomes for patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage (aSAH) remain poor, with high rates of rebleeding, vasospasm, and cerebral ischaemia. IAs are a significant risk factor for aSAH, and it is estimated that up to 3% of the general population have IAs. Recent studies using novel imaging modalities have shown that the prevalence of IAs may be much higher, with 6.6% of adults aged 40-84 years having intradural saccular IAs ≥ 2 mm. The risk of rupture for IAs is difficult to predict, and the decision to treat them invasively is based on a balance between the estimated rupture risk and the procedural risks of the treatment. However, the mortality and morbidity rates among patients treated for IAs can be as high as 5%. There is a need for clear guidelines on the treatment of IAs, and this review aims to provide an update on recent findings in this area. To achieve this goal, the authors identified and summarized recent, high-impact studies on IAs. The review focuses on the diagnostic and treatment options for IAs, as well as the risks associated with these interventions. The authors also provide an overview of the natural history of IAs and discuss the challenges and uncertainties in managing these patients.

Long-term follow-up of congenital hydronephrosis in a single-center study

OBJECTIVES

Many congenital hydronephroses spontaneously resolve. This study evaluated a long-term follow-up of more than 4 years of patients with congenital hydronephrosis at a single center.

METHODS

In total, 215 patients (286 kidneys) with congenital hydronephrosis were included. Hydronephrosis outcomes (resolution, improvement, and persistence) and time-to-outcome were evaluated.

RESULTS

Fourteen patients underwent early surgical intervention until the age of 2 years. A total of 189 congenital hydronephrosis cases (66%) showed resolution at a median of 16 months (interquartile range: 7-21 months) and 169 (80%) of 210 kidneys with grade I to II hydronephrosis showed resolution at a median of 14 months (interquartile range: 6-23 months). Of 76 kidneys with grade III to IV hydronephrosis, 24 (32%) showed resolution at a median of 29 months (interquartile range: 24-41 months), and 56 (74%) showed improvement to grade II or less at a median of 12 months (interquartile range: 5-23 months). Of the 76 kidneys with grade III to IV hydronephrosis, five required delayed pyeloplasty at a median of 66 months (interquartile range: 42-89 months). One patient was asymptomatic, with a marked worsening of hydronephrosis and decreased renal function 6 years after the resolution of hydronephrosis.

CONCLUSIONS

None of the patients with grade I to II hydronephrosis required surgical treatment, and a shorter follow-up may be sufficient. Grade III to IV severe hydronephrosis should be considered for a longer and more careful follow-up, given the possibility of asymptomatic exacerbation of hydronephrosis.

Endpoints in NASH Clinical Trials: Are We Blind in One Eye?

This narrative review aims to illustrate the notion that nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), recently renamed metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH), is a systemic metabolic disorder featuring both adverse hepatic and extrahepatic outcomes. In recent years, several NASH trials have failed to identify effective pharmacological treatments and, therefore, lifestyle changes are the cornerstone of therapy for NASH. with this context, we analyze the epidemiological burden of NASH and the possible pathogenetic factors involved. These include genetic factors, insulin resistance, lipotoxicity, immuno-thrombosis, oxidative stress, reprogramming of hepatic metabolism, and hypoxia, all of which eventually culminate in low-grade chronic inflammation and increased risk of fibrosis progression. The possible explanations underlying the failure of NASH trials are also accurately examined. We conclude that the high heterogeneity of NASH, resulting from variable genetic backgrounds, exposure, and responses to different metabolic stresses, susceptibility to hepatocyte lipotoxicity, and differences in repair-response, calls for personalized medicine approaches involving research on noninvasive biomarkers. Future NASH trials should aim at achieving a complete assessment of systemic determinants, modifiers, and correlates of NASH, thus adopting a more holistic and unbiased approach, notably including cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic outcomes, without restricting therapeutic perspectives to histological surrogates of liver-related outcomes alone.

Findings from the Longitudinal CINRG Becker Natural History Study

BACKGROUND

Becker muscular dystrophy is an X-linked, genetic disorder causing progressive degeneration of skeletal and cardiac muscle, with a widely variable phenotype.

OBJECTIVE

A 3-year, longitudinal, prospective dataset contributed by patients with confirmed Becker muscular dystrophy was analyzed to characterize the natural history of this disorder. A better understanding of the natural history is crucial to rigorous therapeutic trials.

METHODS

A cohort of 83 patients with Becker muscular dystrophy (5-75 years at baseline) were followed for up to 3 years with annual assessments. Muscle and pulmonary function outcomes were analyzed herein. Age-stratified statistical analysis and modeling were conducted to analyze cross-sectional data, time-to-event data, and longitudinal data to characterize these clinical outcomes.

RESULTS

Deletion mutations of dystrophin exons 45-47 or 45-48 were most common. Subgroup analysis showed greater pairwise association between motor outcomes at baseline than association between these outcomes and age. Stronger correlations between outcomes for adults than for those under 18 years were also observed. Using cross-sectional binning analysis, a ceiling effect was seen for North Star Ambulatory Assessment but not for other functional outcomes. Longitudinal analysis showed a decline in percentage predicted forced vital capacity over the life span. There was relative stability or improved median function for motor functional outcomes through childhood and adolescence and decreasing function with age thereafter.

CONCLUSIONS

There is variable progression of outcomes resulting in significant heterogeneity of the clinical phenotype of Becker muscular dystrophy. Disease progression is largely manifest in adulthood. There are implications for clinical trial design revealed by this longitudinal analysis of a Becker natural history dataset.

Overview of Human Papillomavirus Infection

Human papillomavirus (HPV) is a DNA oncogenic virus. HPV infection is the most common sexually transmitted disease, and is capable of infecting mucosal and cutaneous membranes of the anogenital, upper aerodigestive tract, and other head and neck mucosal regions. Although HPV infection is generally asymptomatic and can be easily resolved by the immune system, if it persists and progresses, it can lead to cancer. HPV is permanently responsible for 5% of human cancers. Malignant lesions related to HPV include oral and respiratory squamous cell carcinomas, and cervical and anogenital cancers. Currently, no specific treatment is available for HPV infection, and therapeutic procedures (tissue ablation, chemotherapy, cryotherapy, and immunomodulation) cannot eliminate the virus completely. Vaccination and cervical screening are two methods that have been developed to provide protection against oncogenic HPV. Unfortunately, no effective protocol for vaccination, prevention, testing, or treatment has yet been proposed in the developing countries. In this review, we have reviewed the knowledge gained from recent studies on virology, pathogenesis, clinical manifestations, epidemiology, prevention, and treatment of HPV infection.

The Role of Aortic Volume in the Natural History of Abdominal Aortic Aneurysms and Post-Endovascular Aortic Aneurysm Repair Surveillance

There has been a debate about whether maximum diameter can be solely used to assess the natural history of abdominal aortic aneurysm. The aim of the present review is to collect all the available evidence on the role of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) volume in the natural history of AAAs, including small untreated AAAs and AAAs treated by EVAR. The current literature appears to reinforce the role of volume as a supplementary measure for evaluating the natural history of AAA, in both intact AAAs and after EVAR. The clinical impact of AAA volume measurements remains unclear. Several studies show that volumetric analysis can assess changes in AAAs and predict successful endoluminal exclusion after EVAR more accurately than diameter. However, most studies lack strict standardized measurement criteria and well-defined outcome definitions. It remains unclear whether volumetry could replace diameter assessment in defining the risk of rupture of AAAs and identifying clinically relevant sac growth.

Diagnosis and management of systemic mastocytosis in a community hematology setting

BACKGROUND

Systemic mastocytosis (SM) is a rare and potentially severe hematologic disorder characterized by the clonal proliferation of mast cells (MCs) into various organs. The clinical manifestations of advanced SM are caused by the uncontrolled release of cytokines and vasoactive amines from MC and disease-induced organ dysfunction. Patients with SM typically present with symptoms such as flushing, pruritus, diarrhea, and headaches, but outcomes following active treatment have not been well characterized. In this study, the clinical characteristics, treatment patterns, and natural history of an SM patient cohort diagnosed and treated within a community hematology network in the United States is described.

METHODS

We identified 105 patients who were diagnosed and managed in one of 19 community hematology clinics up to an index date of 1 October 2022. Data collection included patient and disease characteristics, baseline biochemistry and hematology, SM diagnostic criteria being met, biomarkers tested, CD2 and/or CD25 expression in MCs as well as serum tryptase levels at presentation. Data abstraction also included supportive care drugs and anticancer therapy used, treatment response, reason for discontinuation, and overall survival by disease subtype.

RESULTS

A total of 105 SM patients were identified who met the inclusion criteria. The specific SM subtypes were indolent (47.6%), aggressive (9.5%), SM with an associated hematological neoplasm (19.0%), MC leukemia (1.9%), and subtype not documented (21.9%). Regardless of subtype, approximately 62% of patients did not receive SM-directed active therapy. Only 26% of patients with indolent systemic mastocytosis (ISM) received treatment compared to 65.6% with advanced subtypes. Relative to ISM cohort, the relative risk of death in patients with the advanced SM subtypes was approximately 15 times greater (hazard ratio = 15.0; 95% confidence interval: 3.3 to 66.5).

CONCLUSIONS

SM patients present with multiple underlying symptoms, within various disease subtypes that are difficult to diagnose in a timely manner. As a result, many patients do not receive active drug therapy for their disease. Therefore, greater disease awareness is required as well as new tools for earlier disease detection.

Long-term Follow-up of Small Nonfunctioning Pancreatic Neuroendocrine Tumors Diagnosed Using Endoscopic Ultrasound-guided Fine-needle Aspiration

Objective Clinical practice guidelines in Japan recommend surgery for all nonfunctioning pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (NF-PNETs), regardless of their size or associated symptoms. Because pancreatic resection is highly invasive, follow-up for small NF-PNETs is often chosen in clinical practice. However, the natural history of NF-PNET remains poorly understood. We aimed to examine the natural history of pathologically confirmed NF-PNET. Methods This single-center retrospective case series investigated NF-PNETs that were pathologically diagnosed using endoscopic ultrasound-guided fine-needle aspiration (EUS-FNA) at our hospital between 2014 and 2018. Patients who were followed up without treatment due to their general condition or their wish were included in the study. Patients' background characteristics, imaging findings, pathological findings, and long-term prognoses were investigated using medical records. Results Overall, 26 patients were diagnosed with NF-PNET by EUS-FNA during the observation period. Of these, 9 patients (3 men and 6 women; median age: 64 years old) were followed up without treatment. All of these patients were asymptomatic, and localization was noticed in 3 cases in the head, body, and tail (1 each), with a median size of 12 (range: 4-18) mm. Neuroendocrine tumor (Grade 1 [G1]) was pathologically diagnosed in all patients with EUS-FNA. The median observation period was 63 (range: 26-90) months. Tumor growth and distant metastasis were not observed in any of the nine patients who remained asymptomatic. Conclusion Follow-up is a feasible option for asymptomatic NF-PNET ≤20 mm in size with a pathological grade of G1.

Progression and regression of kidney disease in type 1 diabetes

Diabetic kidney disease is distinguished by the presence of albuminuria, hypertension, declining kidney function, and a markedly elevated cardiovascular disease risk. This constellation of clinical features drives the premature mortality associated with type 1 diabetes. The first epidemiological investigations concerning type 1 diabetes-related albuminuria date back to the 1980s. The early studies found that proteinuria - largely equivalent to severe albuminuria - developed in 35 to 45% of individuals with type 1 diabetes, with the diabetes duration-specific incidence rate pattern portraying one or two peaks. Furthermore, moderate albuminuria, the first detectable sign of diabetic kidney disease, was found to nearly inexorably progress to overt kidney disease within a short span of time. Since the early reports, studies presenting more updated incidence rates have appeared, although significant limitations such as study populations that lack broad generalizability, study designs vulnerable to substantive selection bias, and constrained follow-up times have been encountered by many. Nevertheless, the most recent reports estimate that in modern times, moderate - instead of severe - albuminuria develops in one-third of individuals with type 1 diabetes; yet, a considerable part (up to 40% during the first ten years after the initial albuminuria diagnosis) progresses to more advanced stages of the disease over time. An alternative pathway to albuminuria progression is its regression, which affects up to 60% of the individuals, but notably, the relapse rate to a more advanced disease stage is high. Whether albuminuria regression translates into a decline in cardiovascular disease and premature mortality risk is an area of debate, warranting more detailed research in the future. Another unclear but alarming feature is that although the incidence of severe albuminuria has fallen since the 1930s, the decline seems to have reached a plateau after the 1980s. This stagnation may be due to the lack of kidney-protective medicines since the early 1980s, as the recent breakthroughs in type 2 diabetes have not been applicable to type 1 diabetes. Therefore, novel treatment strategies are at high priority within this patient population.

A prospective natural history study of post acute sequalae of COVID-19 using digital wearables: Study protocol

Background

Post-acute sequelae of COVID-19 (PASC) is characterized by having 1 + persistent, recurrent, or emergent symptoms post the infection's acute phase. The duration and symptom manifestation of PASC remain understudied in nonhospitalized patients. Literature on PASC is primarily based on data from hospitalized patients where clinical indicators such as respiratory rate, heart rate, and oxygen saturation have been predictive of disease trajectories. Digital wearables allow for a continuous collection of such physiological parameters. This protocol outlines the design, aim, and procedures of a natural history study of PASC using digital wearables.

Methods

This is a single-arm, prospective, natural history study of a cohort of 550 patients, ages 18 to 65 years old, males or females who own a smartphone and/or a tablet that meets pre-determined Bluetooth version and operating system requirements, speak English, and provide documentation of a positive COVID-19 test issued by a healthcare professional or organization within 5 days before enrollment. The study aims to identify wearables collected physiological parameters that are associated with PASC in patients with a positive diagnosis. The primary endpoint is long COVID-19, defined as ≥ 1 symptom at 3 weeks beyond first symptom onset or positive diagnosis, whichever comes first. The secondary endpoint is chronic COVID-19, defined as ≥ 1 symptom at 12 weeks beyond first symptom onset or positive diagnosis. We hypothesize that physiological parameters collected via wearables are associated with self-reported PASC. Participants must be willing and able to consent to participate in the study and adhere to study procedures for six months.

Discussion

This is a fully decentralized study investigating PASC using wearable devices to collect physiological parameters and patient-reported outcomes. Given evidence on key demographics and risk profiles associated with PASC, the study will shed light on the duration and symptom manifestation of PASC in nonhospitalized patient subgroups and is an exemplar of use of wearables as population-level monitoring health tools for communicable diseases.

Trial registration

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04927442.

Dysregulation of the Immune System in a Natural History Study of 1299 Individuals with Down Syndrome

Dysregulation of the immune system in individuals with Down syndrome is thought to play a major role in the pathophysiology of many clinical presentations. This natural history of disease study took a comprehensive evaluation of the prevalence of different immune related diagnoses in a cohort of 1299 patients with Down syndrome compared to a 2605 control cohort of patients without Down syndrome at Mount Sinai Health System in NY, NY over the past 18 years. We conducted a stepwise analysis of the odds of receiving a diagnosis at the Chapter, Sub-chapter and Diagnosis level of the ICD-CM-10 code system. Individuals in our Down syndrome cohort had higher odds of a diagnosis with inflammatory and autoimmune presentations such as Alopecia areata (OR 6.06, p = 0.01), Other sepsis (OR 4.79, p < 0.001, Purpura and Other hemorrhagic conditions (OR 2.31, p < 0.001), and Rosacea (OR 3.11, p < 0.001). They also presented with lower odds of a diagnosis of Herpesviral infection (OR 0.42, p = 0.01), and Viral warts (OR 0.51, p = 0.04). We posit that dysregulation of the immune system in individuals with Down syndrome has impact on infectious diseases, including lowering the incidence of viral disease, and increasing its severity. Our data also suggests inflammation and autoimmune mediated diseases, in particular of the skin, is exacerbated in individuals with Down syndrome. Finally, there may be a need for greater clinical attention to non-emergent conditions within the Down syndrome patient population as those can also greatly affect quality of life.

Natural History of Hepatic Hemangiomas Larger Than 10 cm: Imaging Findings and Clinical Course of 22 Cases

INTRODUCTION

The natural history of a large hepatic hemangioma is important in determining the treatment strategy. Although several studies have assessed the natural history of hepatic hemangiomas, no study has focused on hepatic hemangiomas measuring >10 cm. The aim of this study was to assess the natural history of hepatic hemangiomas measuring >10 cm by evaluating imaging findings and clinical course.

METHODS

Computed tomography (CT) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) reports at Kyoto University Hospital, Kyoto, Japan, between January 2001 and March 2023 were retrospectively searched to find adult patients with hepatic hemangiomas >10 cm. Patients who were followed up without treatment for over six months were included. The maximum diameter of the hepatic hemangioma was compared between the baseline and the final CT or MRI. The clinical course of the patients was evaluated.

RESULTS

Twenty-two patients (17 women, five men; median age, 51 years) were identified. The median diameter of hepatic hemangiomas in the baseline study was 114 mm. Two patients had abdominal distention at the time of the baseline imaging, whereas the others were asymptomatic. After follow-up without treatment (the median; 95.5 months), enlargement, no change, shrinkage of hepatic hemangioma was observed in six, 11, and five patients, respectively. The median growth rate of hepatic hemangiomas was 2.5 mm/year. Two patients underwent liver resection for hepatic hemangioma, while the others were followed up without treatment. In four patients, symptoms appeared or worsened. Two patients died: one patient died from prostate cancer progression; the cause of death for the other was not confirmed.

CONCLUSION

Hepatic hemangiomas show a slow growth rate during follow-up, and shrinkage is occasionally observed. Some patients experience new symptoms or aggravation of symptoms; however, deaths associated with hepatic hemangiomas are uncommon.

Anastomotic Configuration and Temporary Diverting Ileostomy Do Not Increase Risk of Anastomotic Stricture in Postoperative Crohn's Disease

INTRODUCTION

Surgical management of Crohn's disease (CD) is common. Postoperative complications include anastomotic stricturing (AS). The natural history and risk factors for AS have not been elucidated.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study of patients with CD who underwent ileocolonic resection (ICR) with ≥1 postoperative ileocolonoscopy between 2009 and 2020. Postoperative ileocolonoscopies with corresponding cross-sectional imaging were evaluated for evidence of AS without neoterminal ileal extension. Severity of AS and endoscopic intervention at time of detection were collected. Primary outcome was development of AS. Secondary outcome was time to AS detection.

RESULTS

A total of 602 adult patients with CD underwent ICR with postoperative ileocolonoscopy. Of these, 426 had primary anastomosis, and 136 had temporary diversion at time of ICR. Anastomotic configuration consisted of 308 side-to-side, 148 end-to-side, and 136 end-to-end. One hundred ten (18.3%) patients developed AS with median time of 3.2 years to AS detection. AS severity at time of detection was associated with need for repeat surgical resection for AS. On multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression, anastomotic configuration and temporary diversion were not associated with risk of or time to AS. Preoperative stricturing disease was associated with decreased time to AS (adjusted hazard ratio 1.8; P = 0.049). Endoscopic ileal recurrence before AS was not associated with subsequent AS detection.

DISCUSSION

AS is a relatively common postoperative CD complication. Patients with previous stricturing disease behavior are at increased risk of AS. Anastomotic configuration, temporary diversion, and ileal CD recurrence do not increase risk of AS. Early detection and intervention for AS may help prevent progression to repeat ICR.

Natural history and mid-term neurodevelopmental outcome of fetuses with isolated mild ventriculomegaly diagnosed in the second half of pregnancy

INTRODUCTION

Prenatal diagnosis and counseling of isolated ventriculomegaly (VM) represent a considerable challenge. We aimed to analyze the intrauterine evolution, associated anomalies, and neurodevelopmental outcome using the Battelle Development Inventory (BDI) of fetuses with an initial diagnosis of isolated mild VM.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Retrospective cohort study of fetuses diagnosed with mild isolated VM (10 -12 mm) between 2012 and 2016 in a tertiary hospital. In 2018, parents were invited to complete the structured BDI test for the neurodevelopmental evaluation of their children in five domains (personal-social skills, adaptive behavior, psychomotor ability, communication, and cognition). Results exceeding two standard deviations were considered abnormal and referred to an expert neuropediatrician.

RESULTS

We identified 43 cases of mild isolated VM. In 5 (11%), structural abnormalities were detected during prenatal follow-up, being related to non-regressive forms (p = .01) and bilateral VM (p = .04). The BDI test was completed by 19/43 (44%). The global score was abnormal in 10/19 (53%). Of them, the neuropediatrician confirmed a neurodevelopmental delay solely in 3 cases that had already been diagnosed with neurological disorders. The most affected domains were gross motor skills (63%), personal-social (63%), and adaptive domains (47%). Communicative and cognitive areas were abnormal in 26% of cases.

CONCLUSION

In fetuses with isolated mild VM detected in the second half of pregnancy, 53% had an abnormal BDI test at 2-6 years, but a neurological disorder was only confirmed in the 30% of them.

Network analysis with either Illumina or MinION reveals that detecting vertebrate species requires metabarcoding of iDNA from a diverse fly community

DNA obtained from invertebrates (iDNA) can be metabarcoded in order to survey vertebrate communities. However, little attention has been paid to the interaction between the invertebrate and vertebrate species. Here, we tested for specialization by sampling the dung and carrion fly community of a swamp forest remnant along a disturbance gradient (10 sites: 80-310 m from a road). Approximately, 60% of the baited 407 flies yielded 294 vertebrate identifications based on two COI fragments and 16S. A bipartite network analysis found no statistically significant specialization in the interactions between fly and vertebrate species, but uncommon fly species can carry the signal for vertebrate species that are otherwise difficult to detect with iDNA. A spatial analysis revealed that most of the 20 vertebrate species reported in this study could be detected within 150 m of the road (18 spp.) and that the fly community sourced for iDNA was unexpectedly rich (24 species, 3 families). They carried DNA for rare and common species inhabiting different layers of the forest (ground-dwelling: wild boar, Sunda pangolin, skinks, rats; arboreal: long-tailed macaque, Raffles' banded langur; flying: pin-striped tit-babbler, olive-winged bulbul). All our results were obtained with a new, greatly simplified iDNA protocol that eliminates DNA extraction by obtaining template directly through dissolving fly faeces and regurgitates with water. Lastly, we show that MinION- and Illumina-based metabarcoding yield similar results. We conclude by urging more studies that use different baits and involve experiments that are capable of revealing the dispersal capabilities of the flies carrying the iDNA.

The Natural History of Knee Osteoarthritis Pain Experience and Risk Profiles

The study aimed to characterize the natural history of the pain experience, concurrently considering intermittent and constant pain over 4 years, and determine baseline factors associated with unfavorable trajectories in individuals with chronic knee pain. The Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI) is a prospective, observational study of people with or at higher risk for knee osteoarthritis. The Intermittent and Constant Osteoarthritis Pain (ICOAP) was assessed annually at 48-to-96-month OAI visits. Twenty-eight baseline sociodemographic, knee-specific, and health-related characteristics were assessed. Group-based dual-trajectory modeling identified pain experience patterns indicated by ICOAP intermittent and constant pain scores over 4 years. Multivariable multinomial logistic regression models determined baseline factors associated with membership in each dual-trajectory group. Four longitudinal pain experience patterns were identified (n = 3,584, mean age = 64.8 [standard deviation 9.0] years, BMI = 28.6 [5.0] kg/m2; 57.9% women). Group 1 (37.7%) had minimal intermittent and no constant pain; Group 2 (35.1%) had mild intermittent and no constant pain; Group 3 (18.5%) had mild intermittent and low-grade constant pain; and Group 4 (8.7%) had moderate intermittent and constant pain. Baseline widespread pain, knee stiffness, back pain, hip pain, ankle pain, obesity, depressive symptoms, more advanced radiographic disease, and analgesic use were each associated with an increased risk of membership in less favorable Groups 2, 3, and 4. These distinct courses of pain experience may be driven by different underlying pain mechanisms. The benchmarked ICOAP scores could be used to stratify patients and tailor management. Addressing and preventing the development of modifiable risks (eg, widespread pain and knee joint stiffness) may reduce the chance of belonging to unfavorable dual-trajectory groups. PERSPECTIVE: Concurrently tracking intermittent versus constant pain experience, group-based dual-trajectory modeling identified 4 distinct pain experience patterns over 4 years. The benchmarked ICOAP scores in these dual trajectories could aid in stratifying patients for tailored management strategies and intensity of care.

Treatment Strategy With Gene Editing for Late-Onset Retinal Degeneration Caused by a Founder Variant in C1QTNF5

Purpose

Genome editing is an emerging group of technologies with the potential to ameliorate dominant, monogenic human diseases such as late-onset retinal degeneration (L-ORD). The goal of this study was to identify disease stages and retinal locations optimal for evaluating the efficacy of a future genome editing trial.

Methods

Twenty five L-ORD patients (age range, 33-77 years; median age, 59 years) harboring the founder variant S163R in C1QTNF5 were enrolled from three centers in the United Kingdom and United States. Patients were examined with widefield optical coherence tomography (OCT) and chromatic perimetry under dark-adapted and light-adapted conditions to derive phenomaps of retinal disease. Results were analyzed with a model of a shared natural history of a single delayed exponential across all subjects and all retinal locations.

Results

Critical age for the initiation of photoreceptor loss ranged from 48 years at the temporal paramacular retina to 74 years at the inferior midperipheral retina. Subretinal deposits (sRET-Ds) became more prevalent as critical age was approached. Subretinal pigment epithelial deposits (sRPE-Ds) were detectable in the youngest patients showing no other structural or functional abnormalities at the retina. The sRPE-D thickness continuously increased, reaching 25 µm in the extrafoveal retina and 19 µm in the fovea at critical age. Loss of light sensitivity preceded shortening of outer segments and loss of photoreceptors by more than a decade.

Conclusions

Retinal regions providing an ideal treatment window exist across all severity stages of L-ORD.