Population-level incidence of HPV-positive oropharyngeal, cervical, and anal cancers by smoking status

We estimated the population-level incidence of human papillomavirus (HPV) positive oropharyngeal, cervical, and anal cancers by smoking status. We combined HPV DNA genotyping data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Cancer Registry Sentinel Surveillance System with data from the Kentucky Cancer Registry and Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System across smoking status. During 2004-2005 and 2014-2015 in Kentucky, most cases of oropharyngeal (63.3%), anal (59.7%), and cervical (54.9%) cancer cases were among persons who ever smoked. Population-level incidence rate was higher among persons who ever smoked than never smoked for HPV-positive oropharyngeal (7.8 vs 2.1; adjusted incidence rate ratio [RRadj] = 2.6), cervical (13.7 vs 6.8; RRadj = 2.0), and anal (3.9 vs 1.6; RRadj = 2.5) cancers. These findings indicate that smoking is associated with increased risk of HPV-positive oropharyngeal, cervical, and anal cancers, and the population-level burden of these cancers is higher among persons who ever smoked.

Absolute lung cancer risk increases among individuals with >15 quit-years: Analyses to inform the update of the American Cancer Society lung cancer screening guidelines

BACKGROUND

This report quantifies counteracting effects of quit-years and concomitant aging on lung cancer risk, especially on exceeding 15 quit-years, when the US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) recommends curtailing lung-cancer screening.

METHODS

Cox models were fitted to estimate absolute lung cancer risk among Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial (PLCO) and National Lung Screening Trial (NLST) participants who ever smoked. Absolute lung cancer risk and gainable years of life from screening for individuals aged 50 to 80 in the US-representative National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) 2015-2018 who ever smoked were projected. Relaxing USPSTF recommendations to 20/25/30 quit-years versus augmenting USPSTF criteria with individuals whose estimated gain in life expectancy from screening exceeded 16.2 days according to the Life Years From Screening-CT (LYFS-CT) prediction model was compared.

RESULTS

Absolute lung cancer risk increased by 8.7%/year (95% CI, 7.7%-9.7%; p < .001) as individuals aged beyond 15 quit-years in the PLCO, with similar results in NHIS and NLST. For example, mean 5-year lung cancer risk for those aged 65 years with 15 quit-years = 1.47% (95% CI, 1.35%-1.59%) versus 1.76% (95% CI, 1.62%-1.90%) for those aged 70 years with 20 quit-years in the PLCO. Removing the quit-year criterion would make 4.9 million more people eligible and increase the proportion of preventable lung cancer deaths prevented (sensitivity) from 63.7% to 74.2%. Alternatively, augmentation using LYFS-CT would make 1.7 million more people eligible while increasing the lung cancer death sensitivity to 74.0%.

CONCLUSIONS

Because of aging, absolute lung cancer risk increases beyond 15 quit-years, which does not support exemption from screening or curtailing screening once it has been initiated. Compared with relaxing the USPSTF quit-year criterion, augmentation using LYFS-CT could prevent most of the deaths at substantially superior efficiency, while also preventing deaths among individuals who currently smoke with low intensity or long duration.

Plummeting toxic contaminates from water through phycoremediation: Mechanism, influencing factors and future outlook to enhance the capacity of living and non-living algae

Freshwater habitats hold a unique role in the survival of all living organisms and supply water for drinking, irrigation, and life support activities. In recent decades, due to anthropogenic activities, deterioration in the water quality has been a long-lasting problem and challenge to the scientific fraternity. Although, these freshwater bodies have a bearable intrinsic capacity for pollution load however alarming increase in pollution limits the intrinsic capacities and requires additional technological interventions. The release of secondary pollutants from conventional interventions further needs revisiting the existing methodologies and asking for green interventions. Green interventions such as phycoremediation are natural, eco-friendly, economic, and energy-efficient alternatives and provide additional benefits such as nutrient recovery, biofuel production, and valuable secondary metabolites from polluted freshwater bodies. This systemic review in a nut-shell comprises the recent research insights on phycoremediation, technological implications, and influencing factors, and further discusses the associated mechanisms of metal ions biosorption by living and non-living algae, its advantages, and limitations. Besides, the article explores the possibility of future research prospects for applicability at a field scale that will help in the efficient utilization of resources, and improved ecological and health risks.

Global epidemiologic patterns of oropharyngeal cancer incidence trends

BACKGROUND

The emergence of human papillomavirus (HPV)-positive oropharyngeal cancer and evolving tobacco use patterns have changed the landscape of head and neck cancer epidemiology internationally. We investigated updated trends in oropharyngeal cancer incidence worldwide.

METHODS

We analyzed cancer incidence data between 1993 and 2012 from 42 countries using the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents database volumes V through XI. Trends in oropharyngeal cancer incidence were compared with oral cavity cancers and lung squamous cell carcinomas using log-linear regression and age period-cohort modeling.

RESULTS

In total, 156 567 oropharyngeal cancer, 146 693 oral cavity cancer, and 621 947 lung squamous cell carcinoma patients were included. Oropharyngeal cancer incidence increased (P < .05) in 19 and 23 countries in men and women, respectively. In countries with increasing male oropharyngeal cancer incidence, all but 1 had statistically significant decreases in lung squamous cell carcinoma incidence, and all but 2 had decreasing or nonsignificant net drifts for oral cavity cancer. Increased oropharyngeal cancer incidence was observed both in middle-aged (40-59 years) and older (≥60 years) male cohorts, with strong nonlinear birth cohort effects. In 20 countries where oropharyngeal cancer incidence increased for women and age period-cohort analysis was possible, 13 had negative or nonsignificant lung squamous cell carcinoma net drifts, including 4 countries with higher oropharyngeal cancer net drifts vs both lung squamous cell carcinoma and oral cavity cancer (P < .05 for all comparisons).

CONCLUSIONS

Increasing oropharyngeal cancer incidence is seen among an expanding array of countries worldwide. In men, increased oropharyngeal cancer is extending to older age groups, likely driven by human papillomavirus-related birth cohort effects. In women, more diverse patterns were observed, suggesting a complex interplay of risks factors varying by country, including several countries where female oropharyngeal cancer increases may be driven by HPV.

Inflammatory Tongue Conditions and Risk of Oral Tongue Cancer Among the US Elderly Individuals

PURPOSE

The incidence of oral tongue cancers has increased since the 1980s among US men and women for unknown reasons. We investigated associations of inflammatory tongue conditions with risk of cancers of the oral tongue, other oral cavity, and oropharynx among the US elderly individuals (age 65 years or older).

METHODS

We conducted a case-control study (2,534 oral tongue cancers, 6,832 other oral cavity cancers, 9,373 oropharyngeal cancers, and 200,000 controls) within the SEER-Medicare data set (1992-2013). Medicare records were used to identify patients with clinically diagnosed inflammatory tongue conditions (glossitis, benign migratory glossitis, median rhomboid glossitis, atrophic glossitis, glossodynia, other specified conditions [eg, atrophy and hypertrophy], and other unspecified conditions) and oral precancer (leukoplakia/erythroplakia). Only conditions preceding cancer/control selection by >12 months were included.

RESULTS

The prevalence of inflammatory tongue conditions was significantly higher in patients with tongue cancer than controls (6.0% v 0.6%; odds ratios [ORs], adjusted for age, sex, race, Medicare utilization, and precancer, 5.8 [95% CI, 4.7 to 7.2]). This overall association primarily arose from glossitis, 5.6 (95% CI, 4.4 to 7.2); other specified conditions, 9.1 (95% CI, 5.5 to 15.2); and other unspecified conditions, 13.7 (95% CI, 8.0 to 23.7). These associations remained strongly elevated >5 years preceding tongue cancer (arguing against reverse causation), for conditions diagnosed by a specialist (arguing against misclassification), and among patients who received an oral biopsy (arguing against missed cancer). During 2013, an estimated 1 in 11 patients with oral tongue cancer had a preceding diagnosis of inflammatory tongue conditions. Associations of inflammatory tongue conditions were relatively weak for other oral cavity cancers (ORs, 1.8 [95% CI, 1.5 to 2.3]) and oropharyngeal cancer (OR, 1.3 [95% CI, 1.0 to 1.6]) and were observed only closest to cancer diagnosis.

CONCLUSION

Inflammatory tongue conditions were associated with strongly increased risks of oral tongue cancers and preceded cancer diagnosis by several years, underscoring the need for increased clinical surveillance among patients with such apparently benign diagnoses.

Methods for Using Race and Ethnicity in Prediction Models for Lung Cancer Screening Eligibility

Importance

Using race and ethnicity in clinical prediction models can reduce or inadvertently increase racial and ethnic disparities in medical decisions.

Objective

To compare eligibility for lung cancer screening in a contemporary representative US population by refitting the life-years gained from screening-computed tomography (LYFS-CT) model to exclude race and ethnicity vs a counterfactual eligibility approach that recalculates life expectancy for racial and ethnic minority individuals using the same covariates but substitutes White race and uses the higher predicted life expectancy, ensuring that historically underserved groups are not penalized.

Design, Setting, and Participants

The 2 submodels composing LYFS-CT NoRace were refit and externally validated without race and ethnicity: the lung cancer death submodel in participants of a large clinical trial (recruited 1993-2001; followed up until December 31, 2009) who ever smoked (n = 39 180) and the all-cause mortality submodel in the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) 1997-2001 participants aged 40 to 80 years who ever smoked (n = 74 842, followed up until December 31, 2006). Screening eligibility was examined in NHIS 2015-2018 participants aged 50 to 80 years who ever smoked. Data were analyzed from June 2021 to September 2022.

Exposure

Including and removing race and ethnicity (African American, Asian American, Hispanic American, White) in each LYFS-CT submodel.

Main Outcomes and Measures

By race and ethnicity: calibration of the LYFS-CT NoRace model and the counterfactual approach (ratio of expected to observed [E/O] outcomes), US individuals eligible for screening, predicted days of life gained from screening by LYFS-CT.

Results

The NHIS 2015-2018 included 25 601 individuals aged 50 to 80 years who ever smoked (2769 African American, 649 Asian American, 1855 Hispanic American, and 20 328 White individuals). Removing race and ethnicity from the submodels underestimated lung cancer death risk (expected/observed [E/O], 0.72; 95% CI, 0.52-1.00) and all-cause mortality (E/O, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.86-0.94) in African American individuals. It also overestimated mortality in Hispanic American (E/O, 1.08, 95% CI, 1.00-1.16) and Asian American individuals (E/O, 1.14, 95% CI, 1.01-1.30). Consequently, the LYFS-CT NoRace model increased Hispanic American and Asian American eligibility by 108% and 73%, respectively, while reducing African American eligibility by 39%. Using LYFS-CT with the counterfactual all-cause mortality model better maintained calibration across groups and increased African American eligibility by 13% without reducing eligibility for Hispanic American and Asian American individuals.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this study, removing race and ethnicity miscalibrated LYFS-CT submodels and substantially reduced African American eligibility for lung cancer screening. Under counterfactual eligibility, no one became ineligible, and African American eligibility increased, demonstrating the potential for maintaining model accuracy while reducing disparities.

Human Papillomavirus and Rising Oropharyngeal Cancer Incidence in the United States

PURPOSE

Recent increases in incidence and survival of oropharyngeal cancers in the United States have been attributed to human papillomavirus (HPV) infection, but empirical evidence is lacking.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

HPV status was determined for all 271 oropharyngeal cancers (1984-2004) collected by the three population-based cancer registries in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Residual Tissue Repositories Program by using polymerase chain reaction and genotyping (Inno-LiPA), HPV16 viral load, and HPV16 mRNA expression. Trends in HPV prevalence across four calendar periods were estimated by using logistic regression. Observed HPV prevalence was reweighted to all oropharyngeal cancers within the cancer registries to account for nonrandom selection and to calculate incidence trends. Survival of HPV-positive and HPV-negative patients was compared by using Kaplan-Meier and multivariable Cox regression analyses.

RESULTS

HPV prevalence in oropharyngeal cancers significantly increased over calendar time regardless of HPV detection assay (P trend < .05). For example, HPV prevalence by Inno-LiPA increased from 16.3% during 1984 to 1989 to 71.7% during 2000 to 2004. Median survival was significantly longer for HPV-positive than for HPV-negative patients (131 v 20 months; log-rank P < .001; adjusted hazard ratio, 0.31; 95% CI, 0.21 to 0.46). Survival significantly increased across calendar periods for HPV-positive (P = .003) but not for HPV-negative patients (P = .18). Population-level incidence of HPV-positive oropharyngeal cancers increased by 225% (95% CI, 208% to 242%) from 1988 to 2004 (from 0.8 per 100,000 to 2.6 per 100,000), and incidence for HPV-negative cancers declined by 50% (95% CI, 47% to 53%; from 2.0 per 100,000 to 1.0 per 100,000). If recent incidence trends continue, the annual number of HPV-positive oropharyngeal cancers is expected to surpass the annual number of cervical cancers by the year 2020.

CONCLUSION

Increases in the population-level incidence and survival of oropharyngeal cancers in the United States since 1984 are caused by HPV infection.

Exclusive use of different types of tobacco products, exposure to secondhand tobacco smoke and risk of subtypes of head and neck cancer among Indian males

Tobacco products are used in vary many forms in India. Although the risk of tobacco uses in developing head and neck cancer (HNC) is known, risk by exclusive use of different tobacco products on HNC and its subtypes is poorly understood. A case-control study was conducted at a tertiary cancer hospital, which receives cases from different geographical regions of India with use of different types of tobacco products. The study included 824 oral cavity (OC), 149 oropharynx (OPX) 104 hypopharyngeal (HPX) and 81 larynx (LX) cancer cases and 1206 visitor controls. Information on 11 different types of tobacco products and exposure to secondhand smoke was collected through structured questionnaires. Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI), for the association of various HNC subtypes with exclusive use of each tobacco product compared to nonusers of tobacco were estimated using logistic regression models, after adjusting for potential confounders. Exclusive use of any type of smokeless tobacco product was strongly associated with all subtypes of HNC. Gutka chewing (only) had highest risk (OR = 33.67; 95% CI = 19.8-57.0) while exclusive users of betel quid with tobacco (BQ + T), tobacco quid, Khaini, Mawa and Mishri users had a OR of 14.77, 24.20, 5.33, 2.96 and 3.32, respectively, for development of OC. Bidi smoking and secondhand smoke was independently associated with increased risk of HNC. Our study indicates that tobacco control policies should focus on product specific awareness messaging that switching between tobacco product types is not a safe alternative to complete cessation.

Upper age-limits for US male HPV-vaccination for oropharyngeal cancer prevention: A microsimulation-based modeling study

BACKGROUND

HPV-positive oropharyngeal cancer is the most common HPV-associated cancer in the United States. The age at acquisition of oral HPV infections that cause oropharyngeal cancer (causal infections) is unknown; consequently, the benefit of vaccination of US men aged 27-45 remains uncertain.

METHODS

We developed a microsimulation-based, individual-level, state-transition model of oral HPV16 and HPV16-positive oropharyngeal cancer among heterosexual US men aged 15-84 years, calibrated to population-level data. We estimated the benefit of vaccination of men aged 27-45 for prevention of oropharyngeal cancer, while accounting for direct- and indirect/herd-effects of male and female vaccination.

RESULTS

In the absence of vaccination, most (70%) causal oral HPV16 infections are acquired by age 26, and 29% are acquired between ages 27-45. Among men aged 15-45 in 2021 (1976-2006 birth cohorts), status-quo vaccination of men through age 26 is estimated to prevent 95% of 153,450 vaccine-preventable cancers. Assuming 100% vaccination in 2021, extending the upper age-limit to 30, 35, 40, or 45 for men aged 27-45 (1976-1994 cohorts) is estimated to yield small benefit (3.0%, 4.2%, 5.1%, and 5.6% additional cancers prevented, respectively). Importantly, status-quo vaccination of men through age 26 is predicted to result in notable declines in HPV16-positive oropharyngeal cancer incidence in young men by 2035 (51% and 24% declines at ages 40-44 and 45-49, respectively) and noticeable declines (12%) overall by 2045.

CONCLUSION

Most causal oral HPV16 infections in US men are acquired by age 26, underscoring limited benefit from vaccination of men aged 27-45 for prevention of HPV16-positive oropharyngeal cancers.

The Current Burden of Oropharyngeal Cancer: A Global Assessment Based on GLOBOCAN 2020

BACKGROUND

Oropharyngeal cancer (OPC) is a complex disease whose etiologies, either related to risk factors such as smoking or alcohol, or linked to HPV infection, are believed to be responsible for wide gender and geographical variability. This study depicts the current burden of OPC worldwide.

METHODS

Estimated OPC new cases, deaths, age-standardized rates (ASR) for both incidence and mortality in 2020 were obtained from the GLOBOCAN database for each country and across 20 UN-defined world regions by sex. The incidence-to-mortality ratio (IMR) was also estimated from ASR.

RESULTS

Worldwide, 98,400 new cases and 48,100 OPC deaths were estimated in 2020, with ASR of 1.1 and 0.51 per 100,000 for incidence and mortality, respectively. ASR for both incidence and mortality were approximately four times higher in men and varied greatly across geographical regions and countries within the same region. Higher incidence was estimated in Europe, North-America, Australia, and New Zealand. Mortality was the highest in Central-East Europe, Western Europe, Melanesia, South-Central Asia, and the Caribbean. South-Central Asia, most African areas, and Central America exhibited the lowest IMR values, whereas North-America, Australia, New Zealand, and North-Europe had the highest.

CONCLUSIONS

The marked geographical and gender variability in OPC incidence and mortality is likely to reflect the distribution of risk factors and the diverse prevalence of HPV-negative and HPV-positive cases.

IMPACT

Findings are likely to drive future research, support the development of targeted strategies to counteract disease burden, establish priorities for prevention and treatment programs, and address inequality in access to services.

Variation in Human Papillomavirus Vaccination Effectiveness in the US by Age at Vaccination

This survey study assesses the status and timing of HPV vaccination as self-reported by female participants in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey from 2011 to 2018.

Sex disparities in the incidence of 21 cancer types: Quantification of the contribution of risk factors

BACKGROUND

Cancer incidence is higher in men than in women at most shared anatomic sites for currently unknown reasons. The authors quantified the extent to which behaviors (smoking and alcohol use), anthropometrics (body mass index and height), lifestyles (physical activity, diet, medications), and medical history collectively explain the male predominance of risk at 21 shared cancer sites.

METHODS

Prospective cohort analyses (n = 171,274 male and n = 122,826 female participants; age range, 50-71 years) in the National Institutes of Health-AARP Diet and Health Study (1995-2011). Cancer-specific Cox regression models were used to estimate male-to-female hazard ratios (HRs). The degree to which risk factors explained the observed male-female risk disparity was quantified using the Peters-Belson method.

RESULTS

There were 26,693 incident cancers (17,951 in men and 8742 in women). Incidence was significantly lower in men than in women only for thyroid and gallbladder cancers. At most other anatomic sites, the risks were higher in men than in women (adjusted HR range, 1.3-10.8), with the strongest increases for bladder cancer (HR, 3.33; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.93-3.79), gastric cardia cancer (HR, 3.49; 95% CI, 2.26-5.37), larynx cancer (HR, 3.53; 95% CI, 2.46-5.06), and esophageal adenocarcinoma (HR, 10.80; 95% CI, 7.33-15.90). Risk factors explained a statistically significant (nonzero) proportion of the observed male excess for esophageal adenocarcinoma and cancers of liver, other biliary tract, bladder, skin, colon, rectum, and lung. However, only a modest proportion of the male excess was explained by risk factors (ranging from 50% for lung cancer to 11% for esophageal adenocarcinoma).

CONCLUSIONS

Men have a higher risk of cancer than women at most shared anatomic sites. Such male predominance is largely unexplained by risk factors, underscoring a role for sex-related biologic factors.

The Evolving Epidemiology of Oral Cavity and Oropharyngeal Cancers

In 1988, Blot and colleagues reported results from a U.S. case-control study of oral cavity or pharyngeal (oropharyngeal and hypopharyngeal) cancers, with results showing independent associations of smoking and alcohol with increased risk, multiplicative interaction effects between smoking and alcohol, and that nearly three-quarters of these cancers are attributable to smoking and alcohol. The report by Blot and colleagues represents a landmark in oropharyngeal cancer epidemiology. This study, the largest at the time, introduced several novel concepts in oropharyngeal cancer epidemiology that remain relevant today-etiologic heterogeneity, statistical interaction effects, adjusted attributable fractions, and disparities by sex and race/ethnicity. Perhaps the most significant recognition in the field since 1988 is the etiologic association of human papillomavirus (HPV, primarily HPV16) with cancers arising in the oropharynx. Today, more than 80% of oropharyngeal cancers in the United States are caused by HPV while only approximately 3% of oral cavity cancers are caused by HPV. This etiologic heterogeneity across head and cancer subsites revealed by HPV is manifest at the genetic/genomic, epidemiologic, and clinical levels. Tobacco and alcohol remain the major etiologic factors for oral cavity cancers while HPV is the major cause of oropharyngeal cancers. Thus, tobacco and alcohol control and prophylactic HPV vaccination remain the most promising prevention tools for oral cavity and oropharyngeal cancers at this time. Importantly, the ever-emerging alternative tobacco products, such as smokeless tobacco/snus, hookah and water pipes, e-cigarettes, flavored cigars and cigarillos, and oral dissolvable products, represent a key public health concern and the carcinogenic effects of these products remains an active area of investigation. See related article by Blot and colleagues, Cancer Res 1988;48:3282-7.

Automatic Detection of Oral Lesion Measurement Ruler Toward Computer-Aided Image-Based Oral Cancer Screening

Intelligent computer-aided algorithms analyzing photographs of various mouth regions can help in reducing the high subjectivity in human assessment of oral lesions. Very often, in the images, a ruler is placed near a suspected lesion to indicate its location and as a physical size reference. In this paper, we compared two deep-learning networks: ResNeSt and ViT, to automatically identify ruler images. Even though the ImageN et 1K dataset contains a "ruler" class label, the pre-trained models showed low sensitivity. After fine-tuning with our data, the two networks achieved high performance on our test set as well as a hold-out test set from a different provider. Heatmaps generated using three saliency methods: GradCam and XRAI for ResNeSt model, and Attention Rollout for ViT model, demonstrate the effectiveness of our technique. Clinical Relevance- This is a pre-processing step in automated visual evaluation for oral cancer screening.

Oral Cavity Anatomical Site Image Classification and Analysis

Oral cavity cancer is a common cancer that can result in breathing, swallowing, drinking, eating problems as well as speech impairment, and there is high mortality for the advanced stage. Its diagnosis is confirmed through histopathology. It is of critical importance to determine the need for biopsy and identify the correct location. Deep learning has demonstrated great promise/success in several image-based medical screening/diagnostic applications. However, automated visual evaluation of oral cavity lesions has received limited attention in the literature. Since the disease can occur in different parts of the oral cavity, a first step is to identify the images of different anatomical sites. We automatically generate labels for six sites which will help in lesion detection in a subsequent analytical module. We apply a recently proposed network called ResNeSt that incorporates channel-wise attention with multi-path representation and demonstrate high performance on the test set. The average F1-score for all classes and accuracy are both 0.96. Moreover, we provide a detailed discussion on class activation maps obtained from both correct and incorrect predictions to analyze algorithm behavior. The highlighted regions in the class activation maps generally correlate considerably well with the region of interest perceived and expected by expert human observers. The insights and knowledge gained from the analysis are helpful in not only algorithm improvement, but also aiding the development of the other key components in the process of computer assisted oral cancer screening.

Management of Lung Cancer Screening Results Based on Individual Prediction of Current and Future Lung Cancer Risks

OBJECTIVES

We propose a risk-tailored approach for management of lung cancer screening results. This approach incorporates individual risk factors and low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) image features into calculations of immediate and next-screen (1-y) risks of lung cancer detection, which in turn can recommend short-interval imaging or 1-year or 2-year screening intervals.

METHODS

We first extended the "LCRAT+CT" individualized risk calculator to predict lung cancer risk after either a negative or abnormal LDCT screen result. To develop the abnormal screen portion, we analyzed 18,129 abnormal LDCT results in the National Lung Screening Trial (NLST), including lung cancers detected immediately (n = 649) or at the next screen (n = 235). We estimated the potential impact of this approach among NLST participants with any screen result (negative or abnormal).

RESULTS

Applying the draft National Health Service (NHS) England protocol for lung screening to NLST participants referred 76% of participants to a 2-year interval, but delayed diagnosis for 40% of detectable cancers. The Lung Cancer Risk Assessment Tool+Computed Tomography (LCRAT+CT) risk model, with a threshold of less than 0.95% cumulative lung cancer risk, would also refer 76% of participants to a 2-year interval, but would delay diagnosis for only 30% of cancers, a 25% reduction versus the NHS protocol. Alternatively, LCRAT+CT, with a threshold of less than 1.7% cumulative lung cancer risk, would also delay diagnosis for 40% of cancers, but would refer 85% of participants for a 2-year interval, a 38% further reduction in the number of required 1-year screens beyond the NHS protocol.

CONCLUSIONS

Using individualized risk models to determine management in lung cancer screening could substantially reduce the number of screens or increase early detection.

Abstract PR-13: Potential effect on racial/ethnic disparities of removing racial/ethnic variables from risk models: The example of lung-cancer screening

Background: Some uses of “race correction” in clinical algorithms and prediction models unfairly reduce access to care, resulting in calls to remove racial/ethnic variables from all models and algorithms. However, for models that are based on unbiased, high-quality, and plentiful data, removing racial/ethnic variables may reduce prediction accuracy for minorities. We model racial/ethnic disparities in screening eligibility from augmenting USPSTF-2021 guidelines (ages 50-80, ≥20 pack-years, ≤15 quit-years) to also include individuals selected by an NCCN-recommended risk model that includes race (PLCOM2012) versus the same model with race/ethnicity removed (PLCOM2012_NoRace). Methods: We used previously published methodology to model the performance of lung cancer screening using 6915 ever-smokers ages 50-80 from the US-representative 2015 National Health Interview Survey (NHIS). Individuals were considered eligible for screening if they are eligible by USPSTF-2021 guidelines or by PLCOM2012 (“USPSTF+PLCOM2012”), versus being eligible by USPSTF-2021 or PLCOM2012_NoRace (“USPSTF+PLCOM2012_NoRace”). Both models used the NCCN-recommended ≥1.3% 6-year risk-threshold for eligibility. We evaluated model accuracy (average percent over/under-estimation) by race/ethnicity, estimated the proportion of life-years gainable achieved by each eligible cohort (LYG), and evaluated the LYG disparity (difference in LYG between whites and each minority). Results: USPSTF+PLCOM2012 and USPSTF+PLCOM2012_NoRace identified similar numbers of minorities as eligible for screening (~2.7 million). However, USPSTF+PLCOM2012_NoRace selected 125% more Hispanic-Americans and 31% less African-Americans. LYG disparities decreased using USPSTF+PLCOM2012_NoRace versus USPSTF+PLCOM2012 for Hispanic Americans (LYG: 33% to 29%). However, LYG disparities for African Americans increased (LYG: 16% to 18%). PLCOM2012 underestimated lung cancer risk by 49% for Hispanic-Americans, whereas PLCOM2012_NoRace performed well (4% overestimation). However, PLCOM2012underestimated risk in African-Americans by only 6%, PLCOM2012_NoRace underestimated risk in African-Americans by 36%. Conclusion: The model that was most accurate for a minority group was projected to reduce disparities the most for that group. Removing race from the PLCOM2012 model substantially underestimated risk for African-Americans and may increase disparities. Inexplicably, PLCOM2012 substantially underestimated risk in Hispanic-Americans despite including race/ethnicity, which was alleviated by removing race/ethnicity. Great care must be taken when removing racial/ethnic variables from models, because this will assign minorities risk estimates that may be largely, or entirely, based on the majority population.

Citation Format: Corey D. Young, Li C. Cheung, Christine D. Berg, Patricia Rivera, Hilary A. Robbins, Anil K. Chaturvedi, Hormuzd A. Katki, Rebecca Landy. Potential effect on racial/ethnic disparities of removing racial/ethnic variables from risk models: The example of lung-cancer screening [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the AACR Virtual Conference: 14th AACR Conference on the Science of Cancer Health Disparities in Racial/Ethnic Minorities and the Medically Underserved; 2021 Oct 6-8. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2022;31(1 Suppl):Abstract nr PR-13.

Using Prediction Models to Reduce Persistent Racial and Ethnic Disparities in the Draft 2020 USPSTF Lung Cancer Screening Guidelines

We examined whether draft 2020 United States Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) lung cancer screening recommendations "partially ameliorate racial disparities in screening eligibility" compared with the 2013 guidelines, as claimed. Using data from the 2015 National Health Interview Survey, USPSTF-2020 increased eligibility by similar proportions for minorities (97.1%) and Whites (78.3%). Contrary to the intent of USPSTF-2020, the relative disparity (differences in percentages of model-estimated gainable life-years from National Lung Screening Trial-like screening by eligible Whites vs minorities) actually increased from USPSTF-2013 to USPSTF-2020 (African Americans: 48.3%-33.4% = 15.0% to 64.5%-48.5% = 16.0%; Asian Americans: 48.3%-35.6% = 12.7% to 64.5%-45.2% = 19.3%; Hispanic Americans: 48.3%-24.8% = 23.5% to 64.5%-37.0% = 27.5%). However, augmenting USPSTF-2020 with high-benefit individuals selected by the Life-Years From Screening with Computed Tomography (LYFS-CT) model nearly eliminated disparities for African Americans (76.8%-75.5% = 1.2%) and improved screening efficiency for Asian and Hispanic Americans, although disparities were reduced only slightly (Hispanic Americans) or unchanged (Asian Americans). The draft USPSTF-2020 guidelines increased the number of eligible minorities vs USPSTF-2013 but may inadvertently increase racial and ethnic disparities. LYFS-CT could reduce disparities in screening eligibility by identifying ineligible people with high predicted benefit regardless of race and ethnicity.

Oral Leukoplakia and Risk of Progression to Oral Cancer: A Population-Based Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

The optimal clinical management of oral precancer remains uncertain. We investigated the natural history of oral leukoplakia, the most common oral precancerous lesion, to estimate the relative and absolute risks of progression to cancer, the predictive accuracy of a clinician's decision to biopsy a leukoplakia vis-à-vis progression, and histopathologic predictors of progression.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study (1996-2012) of patients with oral leukoplakia (n = 4886), identified using electronic medical records within Kaiser Permanente Northern California. Among patients with leukoplakia who received a biopsy (n = 1888), we conducted a case-cohort study to investigate histopathologic predictors of progression. Analyses included indirect standardization and unweighted or weighted Cox regression.

RESULTS

Compared with the overall Kaiser Permanente Northern California population, oral cancer incidence was substantially elevated in oral leukoplakia patients (standardized incidence ratio = 40.8, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 34.8 to 47.6; n = 161 cancers over 22 582 person-years). Biopsied leukoplakias had a higher oral cancer risk compared with those that were not biopsied (adjusted hazard ratio = 2.38, 95% CI = 1.73 to 3.28). However, to identify a prevalent or incident oral cancer, the biopsy decision had low sensitivity (59.6%), low specificity (62.1%), and moderate positive-predictive value (5.1%). Risk of progression to oral cancer statistically significantly increased with the grade of dysplasia; 5-year competing risk-adjusted absolute risks were: leukoplakia overall = 3.3%, 95% CI = 2.7% to 3.9%; no dysplasia = 2.2%, 95% CI = 1.5% to 3.1%; mild-dysplasia = 11.9%, 95% CI = 7.1% to 18.1%; moderate-dysplasia = 8.7%, 95% CI = 3.2% to 17.9%; and severe dysplasia = 32.2%, 95% CI = 8.1%-60.0%. Yet 39.6% of cancers arose from biopsied leukoplakias without dysplasia.

CONCLUSIONS

The modest accuracy of the decision to biopsy a leukoplakia vis-à-vis presence or eventual development of oral cancer highlights the need for routine biopsy of all leukoplakias regardless of visual or clinical impression. Leukoplakia patients, particularly those with dysplasia, need to be closely monitored for signs of early cancer.

Risk-Based Selection of Individuals for Oral Cancer Screening

PURPOSE

We evaluated proof of principle for resource-efficient, risk-based screening through reanalysis of the Kerala Oral Cancer Screening Trial.

METHODS

The cluster-randomized trial included three triennial rounds of visual inspection (seven clusters, n = 96,516) versus standard of care (six clusters, n = 95,354) and up to 9 years of follow-up. We developed a Cox regression-based risk prediction model for oral cancer incidence. Using this risk prediction model to adjust for the oral cancer risk imbalance between arms, through intention-to-treat (ITT) analyses that accounted for cluster randomization, we calculated the relative (hazard ratios [HRs]) and absolute (rate differences [RDs]) screening efficacy on oral cancer mortality and compared screening efficiency across risk thresholds.

RESULTS

Oral cancer mortality was reduced by 27% in the screening versus control arms (HR = 0.73; 95% CI, 0.54 to 0.98), including a 29% reduction in ever-tobacco and/or ever-alcohol users (HR = 0.71; 95% CI, 0.51 to 0.99). This relative efficacy was similar across oral cancer risk quartiles (P interaction = .59); consequently, the absolute efficacy increased with increasing model-predicted risk-overall trial: RD in the lowest risk quartile (Q1) = 0.5/100,000 versus 13.4/100,000 in the highest quartile (Q4), P trend = .059 and ever-tobacco and/or ever-alcohol users: Q1 RD = 1.0/100,000 versus Q4 = 22.5/100,000; P trend = .026. In a population akin to the Kerala trial, screening of 100% of individuals would provide 27.1% oral cancer mortality reduction at number needed to screen (NNS) = 2,043. Restriction of screening to ever-tobacco and/or ever-alcohol users with no additional risk stratification would substantially enhance efficiency (43.4% screened for 23.3% oral cancer mortality reduction at NNS = 1,029), whereas risk prediction model-based screening of 50% of ever-tobacco and/or ever-alcohol users at highest risk would further enhance efficiency with little loss in program sensitivity (21.7% screened for 19.7% oral cancer mortality reduction at NNS = 610).

CONCLUSION

In the Kerala trial, the efficacy of oral cancer screening was greatest in individuals at highest oral cancer risk. These results provide proof of principle that risk-based oral cancer screening could substantially enhance the efficiency of screening programs.

Abstract PO-247: Use of prediction models to reduce racial/ethnic disparities in eligibility for lung-cancer screening

Background: For the same age and smoking history as whites, minorities have substantially different lung-cancer risk. However, current US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) lung-cancer screening recommendations make no allowance for race/ethnicity and may induce health disparities. Incorporating individualized prediction-models into USPSTF guidelines may reduce racial/ethnic disparities in lung-cancer screening eligibility. We examine whether expanding current USPSTF lung cancer screening eligibility to include ever-smokers whose risk (calculated by an individualized prediction model) exceeded a threshold would reduce racial/ethnic disparities induced by current USPSTF guidelines. Methods: We used the US- representative 2015 National Health Interview Survey to examine screening eligibility. We identified the thresholds for each of 5 models: lung-cancer risk (Bach, PLCOM2012 and LCRAT models), lung-cancer death risk (LCDRAT model), and life- years gained by attending screening (LYFS-CT model), which select the same number of ever-smokers aged 50-80yrs as USPSTF guidelines. We defined 5 cohorts of ever- smokers as eligible for screening if they were eligible by each screening model or USPSTF guidelines. Among each race/ethnicity, we calculated the number eligible for screening, proportion of preventable lung-cancer deaths prevented (LCD sensitivity), proportion of gainable life-years gained (LYG sensitivity) and screening effectiveness (the number needed to screen to prevent one lung-cancer death). Results: USPSTF criteria performed best for whites (20% eligible, preventing 55% of preventable lung- cancer deaths). Asian-Americans had the least effective screening (NNS=419), only 13% of African-Americans were eligible despite having the most effective screening (NNS=135), and Hispanic-Americans had the lowest percentages eligible (9%) and deaths preventable (30%). Augmenting USPSTF criteria with LCDRAT or LYFS-CT prediction-models nearly equalized the performance of screening for African- Americans with that of whites, doubling the number of African-Americans eligible and increasing the number of preventable deaths and life-years gained by nearly 80%, although at a 25% loss in effectiveness. Prediction-models improved all screening metrics for Asian-Americans and Hispanic-Americans. However models estimated risk more accurately for whites than minorities. Conclusions: Augmenting USPSTF criteria with the LCDRAT or LYFS-CT prediction-models nearly eliminated the white/African-American disparity. All screening metrics were substantially improved for Asian/Hispanic-Americans.

Citation Format: Rebecca Landy, Corey D. Young, Martin Skarzynski, Li C. Cheung, Christine D. Berg, M. Patricia Rivera, Hilary A. Robbins, Anil K. Chaturvedi, Hormuzd A. Katki. Use of prediction models to reduce racial/ethnic disparities in eligibility for lung-cancer screening [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the AACR Virtual Conference: Thirteenth AACR Conference on the Science of Cancer Health Disparities in Racial/Ethnic Minorities and the Medically Underserved; 2020 Oct 2-4. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2020;29(12 Suppl):Abstract nr PO-247.

Summary from an international cancer seminar focused on human papillomavirus (HPV)-positive oropharynx cancer, convened by scientists at IARC and NCI

Cancer of the oropharynx has attracted considerable attention in recent years given: (1) an increasing incidence in selected populations over the past three decades; (2) the discovery of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection as the driver of the increase, as opposed to the traditional risk factors such as tobacco (smoking and chewing) and alcohol; and (3) the promise of new prevention and treatment strategies. As a result of such developments, the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) and the US National Cancer Institute (NCI), convened the fourth Cancer Seminar meeting in November 2018 to focus on this topic. This report summarizes the proceedings: a review of recent science on the descriptive epidemiology, etiology, biology, genetics, early detection, pathology and treatment of HPV-positive oropharyngeal cancer, and the formulation of key research questions to be addressed.

Identification of Candidates for Longer Lung Cancer Screening Intervals Following a Negative Low-Dose Computed Tomography Result

Lengthening the annual low-dose computed tomography (CT) screening interval for individuals at lowest risk of lung cancer could reduce harms and improve efficiency. We analyzed 23 328 participants in the National Lung Screening Trial who had a negative CT screen (no ≥4-mm nodules) to develop an individualized model for lung cancer risk after a negative CT. The Lung Cancer Risk Assessment Tool + CT (LCRAT+CT) updates "prescreening risk" (calculated using traditional risk factors) with selected CT features. At the next annual screen following a negative CT, risk of cancer detection was reduced among the 70% of participants with neither CT-detected emphysema nor consolidation (median risk = 0.2%, interquartile range [IQR] = 0.1%-0.3%). However, risk increased for the 30% with CT emphysema (median risk = 0.5%, IQR = 0.3%-0.8%) and the 0.6% with consolidation (median = 1.6%, IQR = 1.0%-2.5%). As one example, a threshold of next-screen risk lower than 0.3% would lengthen the interval for 57.8% of screen-negatives, thus averting 49.8% of next-screen false-positives among screen-negatives but delaying diagnosis for 23.9% of cancers. Our results support that many, but not all, screen-negatives might reasonably lengthen their CT screening interval.

Circulating inflammation markers and colorectal adenoma risk

Inflammation is a driver of colorectal neoplasia; however, what particular inflammatory processes play a role in early carcinogenesis are unclear. We compared serum levels of 78 inflammation markers between 171 pathologically confirmed colorectal adenoma cases (including 48 incident cases) and 344 controls within the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial. We used weighted multivariable logistic regression to compute odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI). We found 14 markers associated with risk of adenoma overall; three of these were also associated with incident adenoma: CC-chemokine cysteine motif chemokine ligand 20 (CCL20) [overall adenoma fourth versus first quartile: OR 4.8, 95% CI 2.0-12, Ptrend 0.0007; incident adenoma third versus first tertile: OR 4.6, 95% CI 1.0-22, Ptrend 0.03], growth-related gene oncogene products (GRO) [OR 3.8, 95% CI 1.6-9.3, Ptrend 0.006 and OR 3.6, 95% CI 1.1-12, Ptrend 0.04, respectively] and insulin [OR 2.9, 95% CI 0.8-10, Ptrend 0.05 and OR 7.8, 95% CI 1.3-46, Ptrend 0.03, respectively]. All statistical tests were two-sided. These results provide important new evidence implicating CCL20- and GRO-related pathways in early colorectal carcinogenesis and further support a role for insulin.

Evaluating Discrimination of a Lung Cancer Risk Prediction Model Using Partial Risk-Score in a Two-Phase Study

BACKGROUND

Independent validation of risk prediction models in prospective cohorts is required for risk-stratified cancer prevention. Such studies often have a two-phase design, where information on expensive biomarkers are ascertained in a nested substudy of the original cohort.

METHODS

We propose a simple approach for evaluating model discrimination that accounts for incomplete follow-up and gains efficiency by using data from all individuals in the cohort irrespective of whether they were sampled in the substudy. For evaluating the AUC, we estimated probabilities of risk-scores for cases being larger than those in controls conditional on partial risk-scores, computed using partial covariate information. The proposed method was compared with an inverse probability weighted (IPW) approach that used information only from the subjects in the substudy. We evaluated age-stratified AUC of a model including questionnaire-based risk factors and inflammation biomarkers to predict 10-year risk of lung cancer using data from the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer (1993-2009) trial (30,297 ever-smokers, 1,253 patients with lung cancer).

RESULTS

For estimating age-stratified AUC of the combined lung cancer risk model, the proposed method was 3.8 to 5.3 times more efficient compared with the IPW approach across the different age groups. Extensive simulation studies also demonstrated substantial efficiency gain compared with the IPW approach.

CONCLUSIONS

Incorporating information from all individuals in a two-phase cohort study can substantially improve precision of discrimination measures of lung cancer risk models.

IMPACT

Novel, simple, and practically useful methods are proposed for evaluating risk models, a critical step toward risk-stratified cancer prevention.

Life-Gained-Based Versus Risk-Based Selection of Smokers for Lung Cancer Screening

BACKGROUND

Although risk-based selection of ever-smokers for screening could prevent more lung cancer deaths than screening according to the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) guidelines, it preferentially selects older ever-smokers with shorter life expectancies due to comorbidities.

OBJECTIVE

To compare selection of ever-smokers for screening based on gains in life expectancy versus lung cancer risk.

DESIGN

Cohort analyses and model-based projections.

SETTING

U.S. population of ever-smokers aged 40 to 84 years.

PARTICIPANTS

130 964 National Health Interview Survey participants, representing about 60 million U.S. ever-smokers during 1997 to 2015.

INTERVENTION

Annual computed tomography (CT) screening for 3 years versus no screening.

MEASUREMENTS

Estimated number of lung cancer deaths averted and life-years gained after development of a mortality model.

RESULTS

Using the calibrated and validated mortality model in U.S. ever-smokers aged 40 to 84 years and selecting 8.3 million ever-smokers to match the number selected by the USPSTF criteria in 2013 to 2015, the analysis estimated that life-gained-based selection would increase the total life expectancy from CT screening (633 400 vs. 607 800 years) but prevent fewer lung cancer deaths (52 600 vs. 55 000) compared with risk-based selection. The 1.56 million persons selected by the life-gained-based strategy but not the risk-based strategy were younger (mean age, 59 vs. 75 years) and had fewer comorbidities (mean, 0.75 vs. 3.7).

LIMITATION

Estimates are model-based and assume implementation of lung cancer screening with short-term effectiveness similar to that from trials.

CONCLUSION

Life-gained-based selection could maximize the benefits of lung cancer screening in the U.S. population by including ever-smokers who have both high lung cancer risk and long life expectancy.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

Intramural Research Program of the National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health.

Prevalence of Oral HPV Infection in Unvaccinated Men and Women in the United States, 2009-2016

To estimate changes in oral human papillomavirus (HPV) prevalence attributable to vaccination vs herd immunity, this national survey study uses National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey data to compare oral HPV prevalence for 4 types targeted by HPV vaccine and 33 nonvaccine types in unvaccinated US adults aged 18 to 59 years from 2009 to 2016.

Adjuncts for the evaluation of potentially malignant disorders in the oral cavity: Diagnostic test accuracy systematic review and meta-analysis-a report of the American Dental Association

BACKGROUND

Oral squamous cell carcinoma is the most common manifestation of malignancy in the oral cavity. Adjuncts are available for clinicians to evaluate lesions that seem potentially malignant. In this systematic review, the authors summarized the available evidence on patient-important outcomes, diagnostic test accuracy (DTA), and patients' values and preferences (PVPs) when using adjuncts for the evaluation of clinically evident lesions in the oral cavity.

TYPES OF STUDIES REVIEWED

The authors searched for preexisting systematic reviews and assessed their quality using the Assessing the Methodological Quality of Systematic Reviews tool. The authors updated the selected reviews and searched MEDLINE, Embase, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials to identify randomized controlled trials and DTA and PVPs studies. Pairs of reviewers independently conducted study selection, data extraction, and assessment of the certainty in the evidence by using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation approach.

RESULTS

The authors identified 4 existing reviews. DTA reviews included 37 studies. The authors retrieved 7,534 records, of which 9 DTA and 10 PVPs studies were eligible. Pooled sensitivity and specificity of adjuncts ranged from 0.39 to 0.96 for the evaluation of innocuous lesions and from 0.31 to 0.95 for the evaluation of suspicious lesions. Cytologic testing used in suspicious lesions appears to have the highest accuracy among adjuncts (sensitivity, 0.92; 95% confidence interval, 0.86 to 0.98; specificity, 0.94; 95% confidence interval, 0.88 to 0.99; low-quality evidence).

CONCLUSIONS AND PRACTICAL IMPLICATIONS

Cytologic testing appears to be the most accurate adjunct among those included in this review. The main concerns are the high rate of false-positive results and serious issues of risk of bias and indirectness of the evidence. Clinicians should remain skeptical about the potential benefit of any adjunct in clinical practice.

Evolution of the Oropharynx Cancer Epidemic in the United States: Moderation of Increasing Incidence in Younger Individuals and Shift in the Burden to Older Individuals

PURPOSE

Human papillomavirus-positive oropharynx cancer incidence has increased rapidly in cohorts of US white men born during the 1930s to 1950s. It is unknown how the trajectory of the oropharynx cancer epidemic may be changing in the United States.

METHODS

Using US cancer registry information, we investigated whether increases in oropharynx cancer have continued into recent birth cohorts and forecasted the future burden across age, sex, and race/ethnicity subgroups. Log-linear Joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort models were used to evaluate incidence trends during 1992 to 2015 and projections through 2029.

RESULTS

Among white men, oropharynx cancer incidence increased rapidly in individuals born during 1939 to 1955 (5.3% per 2-year birth cohort; 95% CI, 4.8% to 5.7%), but this rate of increase significantly moderated in individuals born during 1955 to 1969 (1.7% per 2-year birth cohort; 95% CI, 1.0% to 2.4%). Should these birth-cohort trends continue, from 2016 to 2029 we forecast that incidence will increase dramatically in older white men 65 to 74 years of age (from 40.7 to 71.2 per 100,000) and 75 to 84 years of age (from 25.7 to 50.1 per 100,000), moderately in white men 55 to 64 years of age (from 40.3 to 52.0 per 100,000), and remain stable in white men 45 to 54 years of age (approximately 18 per 100,000). Accounting for population growth, we project an increase in annual number of cases in the United States from 20,124 (95% CI, 19,779 to 20,469) in 2016 to 30,629 (95% CI, 29,413 to 31,845) in 2029, primarily driven by older individuals (age ≥ 65 years; from 7,976 [95% CI, 7,782 to 8,172] to 18,072 [95% CI, 17,271 to 18,895]) and white men (from 14,453 [95% CI, 14,142 to 14,764] to 22,241 [95% CI, 21,119 to 23,364]).

CONCLUSION

The exponential increase in oropharynx cancer incidence in young white US men has ebbed, and modest increases are occurring/anticipated in cohorts born after 1955. Continued strong increases in incidence in cohorts born before 1955, and an approximate 50% increase in size of the US population age 65 years or older through 2029, portend a substantial shift in burden to elderly white men.

Dental opinion leaders' perspectives on barriers and facilitators to HPV-related prevention

Evidence suggests a causal connection between the Human Papillomavirus (HPV) and oropharyngeal cancers. HPV-related oropharyngeal cancers are increasing and are the most common HPV-associated cancer. Previous research suggests that dental professionals recognize a role in the prevention of HPV and oropharyngeal cancers. As an initial step to investigating effective mechanisms of incorporating HPV prevention into dental practices, including the HPV vaccine, this qualitative study explored dental opinion leaders' perspectives on barriers and facilitators to HPV-related prevention in the dental profession. Dental opinion leaders were identified through: (1) national professional organizations and advocacy groups, (2) by indication of an expert panel, and (3) focus groups conducted with oral health providers. Thirteen participants representing 11 organizations were interviewed via telephone. Interview recordings were transcribed verbatim and thematically coded using a priori and emergent codes. Opinion leaders described multi-level factors influencing dental providers' HPV-related prevention practice behaviors. Barriers included HPV as a sensitive topic and the need for HPV-related education and skills. Facilitators included perceptions of HPV prevention as part of the dental providers' role and the potential development of passive educational methods to provide HPV-related information to patients. Opinion leaders reported dental providers have a role in the prevention of HPV and oropharyngeal cancer; yet, to fully incorporate this topic into their practice, dental providers need further education and skill-based training. Opinion leaders have significant role in shaping this topic as a priority and identifying potential interventions to assist dental providers' HPV-related prevention. Future research should maximize the role of opinion leaders as key change agents.

Implications of Nine Risk Prediction Models for Selecting Ever-Smokers for Computed Tomography Lung Cancer Screening

BACKGROUND

Lung cancer screening guidelines recommend using individualized risk models to refer ever-smokers for screening. However, different models select different screening populations. The performance of each model in selecting ever-smokers for screening is unknown.

OBJECTIVE

To compare the U.S. screening populations selected by 9 lung cancer risk models (the Bach model; the Spitz model; the Liverpool Lung Project [LLP] model; the LLP Incidence Risk Model [LLPi]; the Hoggart model; the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial Model 2012 [PLCOM2012]; the Pittsburgh Predictor; the Lung Cancer Risk Assessment Tool [LCRAT]; and the Lung Cancer Death Risk Assessment Tool [LCDRAT]) and to examine their predictive performance in 2 cohorts.

DESIGN

Population-based prospective studies.

SETTING

United States.

PARTICIPANTS

Models selected U.S. screening populations by using data from the National Health Interview Survey from 2010 to 2012. Model performance was evaluated using data from 337 388 ever-smokers in the National Institutes of Health-AARP Diet and Health Study and 72 338 ever-smokers in the CPS-II (Cancer Prevention Study II) Nutrition Survey cohort.

MEASUREMENTS

Model calibration (ratio of model-predicted to observed cases [expected-observed ratio]) and discrimination (area under the curve [AUC]).

RESULTS

At a 5-year risk threshold of 2.0%, the models chose U.S. screening populations ranging from 7.6 million to 26 million ever-smokers. These disagreements occurred because, in both validation cohorts, 4 models (the Bach model, PLCOM2012, LCRAT, and LCDRAT) were well-calibrated (expected-observed ratio range, 0.92 to 1.12) and had higher AUCs (range, 0.75 to 0.79) than 5 models that generally overestimated risk (expected-observed ratio range, 0.83 to 3.69) and had lower AUCs (range, 0.62 to 0.75). The 4 best-performing models also had the highest sensitivity at a fixed specificity (and vice versa) and similar discrimination at a fixed risk threshold. These models showed better agreement on size of the screening population (7.6 million to 10.9 million) and achieved consensus on 73% of persons chosen.

LIMITATION

No consensus on risk thresholds for screening.

CONCLUSION

The 9 lung cancer risk models chose widely differing U.S. screening populations. However, 4 models (the Bach model, PLCOM2012, LCRAT, and LCDRAT) most accurately predicted risk and performed best in selecting ever-smokers for screening.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

Intramural Research Program of the National Institutes of Health/National Cancer Institute.

Risk of oral tongue cancer among immunocompromised transplant recipients and human immunodeficiency virus-infected individuals in the United States

BACKGROUND

Oral tongue cancer incidence has increased among whites in the United States; however, the cause remains unknown. If an infectious agent is implicated, then elevated risk would be expected among immunosuppressed individuals.

METHODS

By using population-based registry linkage information from the US Transplant Cancer Match and human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) Cancer Match studies, the authors examined the risk of oral tongue squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) among immunocompromised transplantation recipients and HIV-infected individuals. In addition, the risks of oropharyngeal SCC (strongly related to human papillomavirus infection; modestly affected by immunosuppression), other tobacco/alcohol-related oral cavity SCCs (not thought to be infection/immunosuppression-related), and non-Hodgkin lymphoma of oral cavity/pharynx (strongly related to Epstein-Barr virus; profoundly affected by immunosuppression) were evaluated.

RESULTS

Compared with the general population, the risk of non-Hodgkin lymphoma was strongly increased (standardized incidence ratio [SIR] > 8.0). The risk of all SCCs was modestly and similarly elevated among transplantation recipients (SIR range, 2.2-2.7; P_{heterogeneity}  = .2); whereas, among HIV-infected individuals, the risk of oral tongue SCC was higher compared with the risk of other SCCs (SIR, 3.0 vs 1.7 [for oropharyngeal SCCs] and 2.3 [for other oral cavity SCCs]; P_{heterogeneity}  < .001). The risk of SCCs was significantly higher among men, older individuals, and whites; and risk increased with the time since transplantation/AIDS onset. The risk of oral tongue SCC was significantly higher among HIV-infected men who have sex with men compared with the average risk in HIV-infected individuals (adjusted incidence rate ratio = 2.0).

CONCLUSIONS

Similar modest increases in the risk of oral tongue and other oral cavity SCCs do not suggest that an infectious agent or exposure profoundly affected by immunosuppression underlies the increase in oral tongue cancer. Cancer 2018;124:2515-22. © 2018 American Cancer Society.

Effect of Prophylactic Human Papillomavirus (HPV) Vaccination on Oral HPV Infections Among Young Adults in the United States

Purpose The incidence of human papilloma virus (HPV)-positive oropharyngeal cancers has risen rapidly in recent decades among men in the United States. We investigated the US population-level effect of prophylactic HPV vaccination on the burden of oral HPV infection, the principal cause of HPV-positive oropharyngeal cancers. Methods We conducted a cross-sectional study of men and women 18 to 33 years of age (N = 2,627) within the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2011 to 2014, a representative sample of the US population. Oral HPV infection with vaccine types 16, 18, 6, or 11 was compared by HPV vaccination status, as measured by self-reported receipt of at least one dose of the HPV vaccine. Analyses accounted for the complex sampling design and were adjusted for age, sex, and race. Statistical significance was assessed using a quasi-score test. Results Between 2011 and 2014, 18.3% of the US population 18 to 33 years of age reported receipt of at least one dose of the HPV vaccine before the age of 26 years (29.2% in women and 6.9% in men; P < .001). The prevalence of oral HPV16/18/6/11 infections was significantly reduced in vaccinated versus unvaccinated individuals (0.11% v 1.61%; P_adj = .008), corresponding to an estimated 88.2% (95% CI, 5.7% to 98.5%) reduction in prevalence after model adjustment for age, sex, and race. Notably, the prevalence of oral HPV16/18/6/11 infections was significantly reduced in vaccinated versus unvaccinated men (0.0% v 2.13%; P_adj = .007). Accounting for vaccine uptake, the population-level effect of HPV vaccination on the burden of oral HPV16/18/6/11 infections was 17.0% overall, 25.0% in women, and 6.9% in men. Conclusion HPV vaccination was associated with reduction in vaccine-type oral HPV prevalence among young US adults. However, because of low vaccine uptake, the population-level effect was modest overall and particularly low in men.

A prospective study of immune and inflammation markers and risk of lung cancer among female never smokers in Shanghai

There is a paucity of data on risk factors for lung cancer among never smokers. Here, we have carried out the first large study of circulating inflammation markers and lung cancer risk among female never smokers in Shanghai. A study of 248 lung cancer cases in female never smokers and 263 controls was nested within the Shanghai Women's Health Study (n = 75221), matched by dates of birth and blood collection (mean follow-up time = 7.5 years). Prediagnostic plasma levels of 65 inflammation markers were measured using a Luminex bead-based assay. Odds ratios (ORs) were estimated with multivariable logistic regression. Nine of 61 evaluable markers were statistically significantly associated with lung cancer risk among never smoking Chinese women (P-trend across categories <0.05). Soluble interleukin-6 receptor [sIL-6R; highest versus lowest category OR = 2.37; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.40-4.02) and chemokine (C-C motif) ligand 2/monocyte chemotactic protein 1; (OR = 1.62; 95% CI 0.94-2.80) were associated with an increased risk of lung cancer, whereas interleukin (IL)-21 (OR = 0.53; 95%CI 0.31-0.93), chemokine (C-X3-C motif) ligand 1/fractalkine (OR = 0.54; 95% CI 0.30-0.96), soluble vascular endothelial growth factor receptor 2 (sVEGFR2, OR = 0.45; 95% CI 0.26-0.76), sVEGFR3 (OR = 0.53; 95% CI 0.32-0.90), soluble tumor necrosis factor receptor I (OR = 0.49; 95% CI 0.29-0.83), IL-10 (OR = 0.60; 95% CI 0.34-1.05) and C-reactive protein (OR = 0.63; 95% CI 0.37-1.06) were associated with a decreased risk. sIL-6R remained significantly associated with lung cancer risk >7.5 years prior to diagnosis. Markers involved in various aspects of the immune response were associated with subsequent lung cancer risk, implicating inflammation in the etiology of lung cancer among female never smokers.

Industrial hog farming is associated with altered circulating immunological markers

OBJECTIVES

The previously observed inverse association between hog farming and risk of lung cancer in the Agricultural Health Study (AHS) has been attributed to endotoxin exposure, the levels of which are particularly high in industrial hog confinement facilities. We conducted an investigation to explore the potential biological mechanisms underlying this association, as well as other immunological changes associated with hog farming.

METHODS

Serum immune marker levels were measured using a multiplexed bead-based assay in 61 active hog farmers and 61 controls matched on age, phlebotomy date and raising cattle. Both groups comprised non-smoking male AHS participants from Iowa. We compared natural log-transformed marker levels between hog farmers and controls using multivariate linear regression models.

RESULTS

Circulating levels of macrophage-derived chemokine (CCL22), a chemokine previously implicated in lung carcinogenesis, were reduced among hog farmers (17% decrease; 95% CI -28% to -4%), in particular for those with the largest operations (>6000 hogs: 26% decrease; 95% CI -39% to -10%; p_trend=0.002). We also found that hog farmers had elevated levels of other immune markers, including macrophage inflammatory protein-3 alpha (MIP-3A/CCL20; 111% increase, 95% CI 19% to 273%), basic fibroblast growth factor (FGF-2; 93% increase, 95% CI 10% to 240%) and soluble interleukin-4 receptor (12% increase, 95% CI 1% to 25%), with particularly strong associations for MIP-3A/CCL20 and FGF-2 in winter.

CONCLUSIONS

These results provide insights into potential immunomodulatory mechanisms through which endotoxin or other exposures associated with hog farming may influence lung cancer risk, and warrant further investigation with more detailed bioaerosol exposure assessment.

Associations between self-reported diabetes and 78 circulating markers of inflammation, immunity, and metabolism among adults in the United States

Inflammation is increasingly thought to be associated with diabetes; however, only a few inflammation markers have been assessed concurrently in relation to history of diabetes. In the most comprehensive evaluation of inflammation markers and diabetes to date using a Luminex bead-based assay, we measured 78 inflammation-, immune-, and metabolic-related markers detectable in at least 10% of serum samples collected from participants from the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian Cancer (PLCO) screening trial (n = 1,814). At baseline, 6.6% (n = 120) of PLCO participants self-reported a history of diabetes. Cross-sectional associations between these markers and self-reported diabetes were assessed using weighted logistic regression adjusting for sex, smoking status, blood draw age and year, body mass index, and cohort sub-study. Including chemokines [C-C motif ligand (CCL) 19, CCL20, CCL21, C-X-C motif ligand (CXCL) 6, CXCL10, and CXCL11] and soluble cytokine and chemokine receptors [soluble (s) interleukin (IL) 6 receptor (R), soluble tumor necrosis factor receptor (sTNFR) 1, sTNFR2, and sIL-R2], ten inflammation-related markers, were nominally associated with diabetes (P<0.05). In addition to these associations, higher levels of insulin, gastric inhibitory polypeptide, and pancreatic polypeptide remained significantly associated with self-reported diabetes with a false discovery rate <5%, indicating that the assay was able to detect markers associated with diabetes. In summary, self-reported diabetes was nominally associated with circulating cytokines, chemokines, and soluble cytokine and chemokine receptors in the most expansive examination of diabetes and inflammation- and immune-related markers to date. These results highlight the need to explore in future prospective studies the role of inflammation markers in diabetes.

Abstract 5298: Lung cancer risk and scarring on imaging and histology in the National Lung Screening Trial

Background: The contribution of pulmonary scars to lung cancer development and the degree to which lung cancers cause a scarring response are unclear. Also unknown is how lung scarring impacts lung cancer screening.

Methods: We evaluated associations between scarring and lung cancer in the National Lung Screening Trial (NLST), a lung cancer screening trial among current or former, heavy smokers, 55-74 years-old. Baseline scarring (presence vs. absence) on screening low dose computed tomography (LDCT) scan was assessed at baseline (T0). Associations of T0 scarring with screen-detected lung cancers and with interval-detected lung cancers missed on screening within 3 years of T0 screen were analyzed using multinomial logistic regression. Cox proportional hazards models were used to analyze the relationship between T0 scarring and incident lung cancers diagnosed &gt;3 years after T0. Regression models included age, sex, race, smoking history, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, history of pneumonia, and family history of lung cancer. A thoracic pathologist (first author) evaluated lung cancer pathology slides from the Lung Screening Study (LSS) subset of NLST for scar grade (none, sparse, dense) and maturity (none, immature, intermediate, mature). Associations between T0 scarring on LDCT and histological scarring were examined by logistic regression.

Results: NLST’s LDCT arm enrolled 26,722 participants (65% from the LSS). T0 scars were present in 132 (22%) screen-detected, 12 (29%) interval-detected, and 94 (26%) incident lung cancer cases. T0 scarring did not increase or decrease screen-detection of cancers [odds ratio (OR) 95% CI: 1.03 (0.84-1.26)]. However, scarring might increase the chance of an interval-detected cancer [OR (95% CI): 1.54 (0.76-3.12)]. After screening stopped, T0 scarring was associated with increased incident lung cancer risk [hazard ratio (HR) (95% CI): 1.27 (1.00-1.62); P=0.048]. Pathology slides were available for 258 (38%) lung cancers in LSS. Lung scarring was found in 172 (67%) of these cancers with 58 (22%) being characterized as mature scars. On microscopic review, scars were found in 80 (66%) ADC, 46 (82%) squamous cell carcinomas, and 20 (51%) bronchioloalveolar carcinomas. Microscopic scarring tended to be more frequent among cases with T0 scarring than those without T0 scarring (75% vs. 64%; P=0.10) [OR (95% CI): 1.89 (0.98-3.86)].

Conclusion: The association between T0 scarring and incident lung cancer over a period of more than 3 years is consistent with an etiologic contribution of scarring to development of lung cancer. The relationship between T0 scarring and scarring on microscopic evaluation suggests that scarring preceded the cancer, further supporting an etiologic relationship. Finally, the borderline association of T0 scarring and interval cancers suggests that scarring may decrease the sensitivity of screening.

Citation Format: Alison L. Van Dyke, Christine D. Berg, Neil E. Caporaso, Hormuzd A. Katki, Anil K. Chaturvedi, Eric A. Engels. Lung cancer risk and scarring on imaging and histology in the National Lung Screening Trial [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2017; 2017 Apr 1-5; Washington, DC. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2017;77(13 Suppl):Abstract nr 5298. doi:10.1158/1538-7445.AM2017-5298

Abstract 5291: Effect of screening CT results and features on lung cancer risk prediction within the National Lung Screening Trial

BACKGROUND: In the course of screening, individual risk of disease evolves based on screening results. We calculated how individual lung cancer risk changes based on screening CT findings using data from the National Lung Screening Trial (NLST), which conducted annual screening for 3 years.

METHODS: We calculated lung cancer risks by combining CT findings with individual predicted 1-year “pre-screening risk.” Pre-screening risk r(x) was predicted in the absence of screening using a validated risk model (Katki et al., JAMA 2016) with covariates (x): age, education, sex, race, smoking intensity/duration/quit-years, body mass index, family history of lung cancer, and self-reported emphysema. We used log-binomial regression to calculate the risk of an “interval” lung cancer (within 1 year of a negative screen) or a “screen-detected” cancer detected at the next annual screen. For each, covariates included log-transformed 1-year pre-screening risk and CT findings including classification as negative or false-positive and other specific features.

RESULTS: The median 1-year pre-screening risk at the first NLST screen was 0.32% (interquartile range 0.19-0.53%). Among CT-negatives, risk over the next year was substantially reduced as r(x)1.32 (median interval cancer risk 0.05%), but risk at the next screen reverted to pre-screening risk as r(x)1. Risk at the next screen was higher for those whose CT noted either emphysema (r(x)0.95, median risk 0.53%) or consolidation (r(x)0.76, median risk 1.6%).

Among CT-false-positives, overall risk at the next screen increased as r(x)0.74 (median risk 1.5%). Risk was higher among those with nodule(s) that were larger, had spiculated margins (median risk 4.1%), were located in the upper lobes (median risk 1.4%), or grew during the most recent screening interval (median risk 7.9%), while nodules with smooth margins indicated lower risk (median risk 0.71%). Those with a smooth-margins nodule and no risk-increasing factors essentially reverted to their pre-screening risk at the next screen as r(x)1.01 (median risk 0.29%), as if they had screened negative. Overall, only the immediately prior screen result, and not earlier screens, predicted lung cancer risk (all p&gt;0.2). Exponents were similar for each interval and at each screen (all p&gt;0.07).

CONCLUSIONS: CT-negatives experienced reduced lung cancer risk over the next year, but reverted to their pre-screening risk at the next screen. CT-false-positives experienced substantially increased lung cancer detection at the next annual screen, with most risks exceeding 1%. These risk increases were explained by specific CT features including nodule size, location, margins, and growth.

Citation Format: Hilary A. Robbins, Christine D. Berg, Li C. Cheung, Anil K. Chaturvedi, Hormuzd A. Katki. Effect of screening CT results and features on lung cancer risk prediction within the National Lung Screening Trial [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2017; 2017 Apr 1-5; Washington, DC. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2017;77(13 Suppl):Abstract nr 5291. doi:10.1158/1538-7445.AM2017-5291

Abstract IA18: Development and validation of risk models to select ever-smokers for CT lung-cancer screening

The US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) recommends computed-tomography (CT) lung-cancer screening for ever-smokers ages 55-80 years who smoked at least 30 pack-years with no more than 15 years since quitting. However, selecting ever-smokers for screening using individualized lung-cancer risk calculations may be more effective and efficient than current USPSTF recommendations. We compare of modeled outcomes from risk-based CT lung-screening strategies versus USPSTF recommendations. We developed empirical risk models for lung-cancer incidence and death in the absence of CT screening using data on ever-smokers from the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial (PLCO; 1993-2009) control group. Covariates included age, education, sex, race, smoking intensity/duration/quit-years, Body Mass Index, family history of lung-cancer, and self-reported emphysema. Models were validated in the chest radiography groups of the PLCO and the National Lung Screening Trial (NLST; 2002-2009), with additional validation of the death model in the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS; 1997-2001), a representative sample of the US. Models applied to US ever-smokers ages 50-80 (NHIS 2010-2012) to estimate outcomes of risk-based selection for annual CT lung-screening for 3 years, assuming screening for all ever-smokers yields the percent changes in lung-cancer detection and death observed in the NLST. Lung-cancer incidence and death risk models were well-calibrated in PLCO and NLST. The lung-cancer death model calibrated and discriminated well for US ever-smokers ages 50-80 (NHIS 1997-2001: Estimated/Observed=0.94, 95%CI=0.84-1.05; AUC=0.78, 95%CI=0.76-0.80). Under USPSTF recommendations, the models estimated 9.0 million US ever-smokers would qualify for lung-cancer screening and 46,488 (95%CI=43,924-49,053) lung-cancer deaths were estimated as screen-avertable over 5 years (estimated NNS=194, 95%CI=187-201). In contrast, risk-based selection screened the same number of ever-smokers (9.0 million) at highest 5-year lung-cancer risk (≥1.9%), was estimated to avert 20% more deaths (55,717; 95%CI=53,033-58,400) and was estimated to reduce the estimated NNS by 17% (NNS=162, 95%CI=157-166). Among a cohort of US ever-smokers age 50-80 years, application of a risk-based model for CT screening for lung cancer compared with a model based on USPSTF recommendations was estimated to be associated with a greater number of lung-cancer deaths prevented over 5 years along with a lower NNS to prevent 1 lung-cancer death.

Citation Format: Hormuzd A. Katki, Stephanie A. Kovalchik, Christine D. Berg, Li C. Cheung, Anil K. Chaturvedi. Development and validation of risk models to select ever-smokers for CT lung-cancer screening. [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the AACR Special Conference: Improving Cancer Risk Prediction for Prevention and Early Detection; Nov 16-19, 2016; Orlando, FL. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2017;26(5 Suppl):Abstract nr IA18.

Rising incidence of oral tongue cancer among white men and women in the United States, 1973-2012

BACKGROUND

Despite significant reductions in tobacco use in the US, oral tongue cancer incidence has reportedly increased in recent years, particularly in young white women. We conducted age-period-cohort analyses to identify birth cohorts that have experienced increased oral tongue cancer incidence, and compared these with trends for oropharyngeal cancer, a cancer caused by human papillomavirus (HPV) that has also recently increased.

METHODS

We utilized cancer incidence data (1973-2012) from 18 registries maintained by the NCI SEER Program. Incidence trends were evaluated using log-linear joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort modeling was utilized to simultaneously evaluate effects of age, calendar year, and birth year on incidence trends.

RESULTS

Incidence of oral tongue cancer increased significantly among white women during 1973-2012 (0.6% annual increase, p<0.001) and white men during 2008-2012 (5.1% annual increase, p=0.004). The increase was most apparent among younger white individuals (<50years; annual increase of 0.7% for men [p=0.02] and 1.7% for women [p<0.001] during 1973-2012). Furthermore, the magnitude of the increase during 1973-2012 was similar between young white men and women (2.3 vs. 1.8 cases per million, respectively). Incidence trends for oropharyngeal cancer were similar to trends for oral tongue cancer and similar birth cohorts (born after the 1940s) experienced rising incidence of these cancers (p-value: white men=0.12, white women=0.42), although the magnitude of increase was greater for oropharyngeal cancer.

CONCLUSIONS

The incidence of oral tongue and oropharyngeal cancer has significantly increased among young white men and women within the same birth cohorts in the US.