Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease and Longitudinal Change in Imaging and Plasma Biomarkers of Alzheimer Disease and Vascular Pathology

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Prospective measures of plasma and cerebral MRI biomarkers of Alzheimer disease (AD) and vascular neuropathology provide an opportunity to investigate possible mechanisms linking liver disease and dementia. We aimed to quantify the association of midlife nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) with change in plasma and brain MRI biomarkers of AD and vascular neuropathology.

METHODS

We included participants from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study with brain MRI measurements of white matter hyperintensity (WMH) volume and temporal-parietal lobe cortical thickness meta region of interest (ROI) at up to 2 different visits, in 2011-13 and 2016-19, and plasma biomarkers of β-amyloid (Aβ)42:40, phosphorylated tau at threonine 181, and neurofilament light (NfL) were measured up to 3 times in 1993-95, 2011-13, and 2016-19. NAFLD was categorized using the fatty liver index in 1990-92. Multivariate linear regression was performed for associations between midlife NAFLD and change in plasma and brain MRI biomarkers of AD and vascular neuropathology. The primary models adjusted for demographics, Apolipoprotein E, alcohol use, and kidney function.

RESULTS

Among 1,706 participants (mean age 56 years, 62% female, 28% Black), midlife NAFLD vs no NAFLD was associated with greater late-life WMH volume (difference per SD 0.19, 95% CI 0.06-0.31) and faster late-life WMH increase over 6 years (difference in annual change, SD 0.28, 95% CI 0.05-0.51), suggesting accumulating vascular pathology. Midlife NAFLD vs no NAFLD was also associated with AD biomarkers in midlife (lower Aβ42:40 [SD -0.21, 95% CI -0.39 to -0.04] measured in 1993-95) and late life (lower Aβ42:40 [SD -0.13, 95% CI -0.23 to -0.03] and lower temporal-parietal lobe cortical thickness meta ROI [SD -0.16, 95% CI -0.28 to -0.05] measured in 2011-13). Although midlife NfL was lower in individuals with vs without midlife NAFLD, those with NAFLD exhibited a faster rate of NfL increase that accelerated over time.

DISCUSSION

Midlife NAFLD shows associations with AD and accumulating vascular pathology, revealing potential pathways linking liver function to dementia. Plasma biomarkers of neuropathology and neuronal injury may serve as easily measurable and dynamic indicators for monitoring the impacts of impaired liver function on brain health.

Cumulative All-Cause Mortality in Diverse Hispanic/Latino Adults : A Prospective, Multicenter Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

All-cause mortality among diverse Hispanic/Latino groups in the United States and factors underlying mortality differences have not been examined prospectively.

OBJECTIVE

To describe cumulative all-cause mortality (and factors underlying differences) by Hispanic/Latino background, before and during the COVID-19 pandemic.

DESIGN

Prospective, multicenter cohort study.

SETTING

Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos.

PARTICIPANTS

15 568 adults aged 18 to 74 years at baseline (2008 to 2011) of Central American, Cuban, Dominican, Mexican, Puerto Rican, South American, and other backgrounds from the Bronx, New York; Chicago, Illinois; Miami, Florida; and San Diego, California.

MEASUREMENTS

Sociodemographic, acculturation-related, lifestyle, and clinical factors were assessed at baseline, and vital status was ascertained through December 2021 (969 deaths; 173 444 person-years of follow-up). Marginally adjusted cumulative all-cause mortality risks (11-year before the pandemic and 2-year during the pandemic) were examined using progressively adjusted Cox regression.

RESULTS

Before the pandemic, 11-year cumulative mortality risks adjusted for age and sex were higher in the Puerto Rican and Cuban groups (6.3% [95% CI, 5.2% to 7.6%] and 5.7% [CI, 5.0% to 6.6%], respectively) and lowest in the South American group (2.4% [CI, 1.7% to 3.5%]). Differences were attenuated with adjustment for lifestyle and clinical factors. During the pandemic, 2-year cumulative mortality risks adjusted for age and sex ranged from 1.1% (CI, 0.6% to 2.0%; South American) to 2.0% (CI, 1.4% to 3.0%; Central American); CIs overlapped across groups. With adjustment for lifestyle factors, 2-year cumulative mortality risks were highest in persons of Central American and Mexican backgrounds and lowest among those of Puerto Rican and Cuban backgrounds.

LIMITATION

Lack of data on race and baseline citizenship status; correlation between Hispanic/Latino background and site.

CONCLUSION

Differences in prepandemic mortality risks across Hispanic/Latino groups were explained by lifestyle and clinical factors. Mortality patterns changed during the pandemic, with higher risks in persons of Central American and Mexican backgrounds than in those of Puerto Rican and Cuban backgrounds.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

National Institutes of Health.

Biological Age Mediates the Effects of Perceived Neighborhood Problems on Heart Failure Risk Among Black Persons

OBJECTIVE

We assessed whether biological age, measured by the epigenetic clock GrimAge, mediates the association of objective and subjective neighborhood disadvantage with incident HF among Black persons.

METHODS

Participants were 1448 self-reported Black adults (mean age (standard deviation, SD) = 64.3 (5.5)) dually enrolled in two community-based cohorts in Jackson, Mississippi, the ARIC and JHS cohorts, who were free of HF as of January 1, 2000. Incident HF events leading to hospitalization through December 31, 2017, were classified using ICD-9 discharge codes of HF. Multilevel age- and sex-adjusted Cox causal mediation models were used to examine whether biological age (at the person and neighborhood level) mediated the effects of objective (the National Area Deprivation Index, ADI) and subjective (perceived neighborhood problems) neighborhood disadvantage on incident HF.

RESULTS

A total of 334 incident hospitalized HF events occurred over a median follow-up of 18.0 years. The total effect of the ADI and perceived neighborhood problems (SD units) on HF was hazard ration (HR) = 1.26 and 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.98-1.56 and HR = 1.26 and 95% CI 1.10-1.41, respectively. GrimAge mediated a majority of the effect of perceived neighborhood problems on HF (person-level indirect effect HR = 1.07; 95% CI 1.02-1.12 and neighborhood-level indirect effect HR = 1.18; 95% CI 1.03-1.34), with the combined indirect effect explaining 94.8% of the relationship. The combined indirect effect of ADI on incident HF was comparable but not statistically significant.

CONCLUSIONS

Subjective neighborhood disadvantage may confer an increased risk of HF among Black populations.

Heart rate variability and risk of agitation in Alzheimer's disease: the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study

Agitation in Alzheimer's disease is common and may be related to impaired emotion regulation capacity. Heart rate variability, a proposed index of autonomic and emotion regulation neural network integrity, could be associated with agitation propensity in Alzheimer's disease. We used the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study cohort data, collected over seven visits spanning over two decades, to investigate whether heart rate variability (change) was associated with agitation risk in individuals clinically diagnosed with dementia due to Alzheimer's disease. Agitation (absence/presence) at Visit 5, the primary outcome, was based on the Neuropsychiatric Inventory agitation/aggression subscale, or a composite score comprising the total number of agitation/aggression, irritability, disinhibition and aberrant motor behaviour subscales present. Visit 1-5 heart rate variability measures were the log-transformed root mean square of successive differences in R-R intervals and standard deviation of normal-to-normal R-R intervals obtained from resting, supine, standard 12-lead ECGs. To aid interpretability, heart rate variability data were scaled such that model outputs were expressed for each 0.05 log-unit change in heart rate variability (which approximated to the observed difference in heart rate variability with every 5 years of age). Among 456 participants who had dementia, 120 were clinically classified to have dementia solely attributable to Alzheimer's disease. This group showed a positive relationship between heart rate variability and agitation risk in regression models, which was strongest for measures of (potentially vagally mediated) heart rate variability change over the preceding two decades. Here, a 0.05 log-unit of heart rate variability change was associated with an up to 10-fold increase in the odds of agitation and around a half-unit increase in the composite agitation score. Associations persisted after controlling for participants' cognitive status, heart rate (change), sociodemographic factors, co-morbidities and medications with autonomic effects. Further confirmatory studies, incorporating measures of emotion regulation, are needed to support heart rate variability indices as potential agitation propensity markers in Alzheimer's disease and to explore underlying mechanisms as targets for treatment development.

Aging-Related Multisystem Dysregulation Over the Adult Life Span and Physical Function in Later Life: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study

BACKGROUND

Multisystem dysregulation (Dm) shows promise as a metric of aging and predicts mortality. However, Dm needs to be studied with less severe endpoints indicating modifiable aging stages. Physical function, reflecting healthy longevity rather than just longevity, is more relevant to the goals of geroscience but has not been well investigated.

METHODS

We tested the association of midlife Dm and its change over ~20 years with physical function in later life in 5 583 the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study cohort participants (baseline mean age 54.7). Dm quantifies the multivariate statistical deviation of 17 physiologically motivated biomarkers relative to their distribution in a young healthy sample at baseline. Physical function was assessed from grip strength and the Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB). Associations were quantified using linear regression and ordinal logistic regression adjusting for age, sex, race, and education.

RESULTS

Each unit increment in midlife Dm was associated with 1.71 times the odds of having a lower SPPB score. Compared to the first quartile of midlife Dm, the odds ratios of having a lower SPPB score were 1.25, 1.56, and 2.45, respectively, for the second-fourth quartiles. Similar graded association patterns were observed for each SPPB component test and grip strength. An inverse monotonic relationship also was observed between the annual growth rate of Dm and physical function.

CONCLUSION

Greater Dm and progression in midlife were associated with lower physical function in later life. Future studies on the factors that lead to the progression of Dm may highlight opportunities to preserve physical function.

Volatile Hydrocarbon Exposures and Incident Coronary Heart Disease Events: Up to Ten Years of Follow-up among Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill Workers

BACKGROUND

During the 2010 Deepwater Horizon (DWH) disaster, response and cleanup workers were potentially exposed to toxic volatile components of crude oil. However, to our knowledge, no study has examined exposure to individual oil spill-related chemicals in relation to cardiovascular outcomes among oil spill workers.

OBJECTIVES

Our aim was to investigate the association of several spill-related chemicals [benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, xylene, n-hexane (BTEX-H)] and total hydrocarbons (THC) with incident coronary heart disease (CHD) events among workers enrolled in a prospective cohort.

METHODS

Cumulative exposures to THC and BTEX-H across the cleanup period were estimated via a job-exposure matrix that linked air measurement data with self-reported DWH spill work histories. We ascertained CHD events following each worker's last day of cleanup work as the first self-reported physician-diagnosed myocardial infarction (MI) or a fatal CHD event. We estimated hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals for the associations of exposure quintiles (Q) with risk of CHD. We applied inverse probability weights to account for bias due to confounding and loss to follow-up. We used quantile g-computation to assess the joint effect of the BTEX-H mixture.

RESULTS

Among 22,655 workers with no previous MI diagnoses, 509 experienced an incident CHD event through December 2019. Workers in higher quintiles of each exposure agent had increased CHD risks in comparison with the referent group (Q1) of that agent, with the strongest associations observed in Q5 (range of HR = 1.14 - 1.44 ). However, most associations were nonsignificant, and there was no evidence of exposure-response trends. We observed stronger associations among ever smokers, workers with ≤ high school education, and workers with body mass index < 30   kg / m 2 . No apparent positive association was observed for the BTEX-H mixture.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher exposures to volatile components of crude oil were associated with modest increases in risk of CHD among oil spill workers, although we did not observe exposure-response trends. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP11859.

Evolving Science on Cardiovascular Disease Among Hispanic/Latino Adults: JACC International

The landmark, multicenter HCHS/SOL (Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos) is the largest, most comprehensive, longitudinal community-based cohort study to date of diverse Hispanic/Latino persons in the United States. The HCHS/SOL aimed to address the dearth of comprehensive data on risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD) and other chronic diseases in this population and has expanded considerably in scope since its inception. This paper describes the aims/objectives and data collection of the HCHS/SOL and its ancillary studies to date and highlights the critical and sizable contributions made by the study to understanding the prevalence of and changes in CVD risk/protective factors and the burden of CVD and related chronic conditions among adults of diverse Hispanic/Latino backgrounds. The continued follow-up of this cohort will allow in-depth investigations on cardiovascular and pulmonary outcomes in this population, and data from the ongoing ancillary studies will facilitate generation of new hypotheses and study questions.

Economic and Psychosocial Impact of COVID-19 in the Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos

Objectives

To examine the prevalence and correlates of economic hardship and psychosocial distress experienced during the initial phase of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in a large cohort of Hispanic/Latino adults.

Methods

The Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos (HCHS/SOL), an ongoing multicenter study of Hispanic/Latino adults, collected information about COVID-19 illness and psychosocial and economic distress that occurred during the pandemic (N=11,283). We estimated the prevalence of these experiences during the initial phase of the pandemic (May 2020 to May 2021) and examined the prepandemic factors associated with pandemic-related economic hardship and emotional distress using multivariable log linear models with binomial distributions to estimate prevalence ratios.

Results

Almost half of the households reported job losses and a third reported economic hardship during the first year of the pandemic. Pandemic-related household job losses and economic hardship were more pronounced among noncitizens who are likely to be undocumented. Pandemic-related economic hardship and psychosocial distress varied by age group and sex. Contrary to the economic hardship findings, noncitizens were less likely to report pandemic-related psychosocial distress. Prepandemic social resources were inversely related to psychosocial distress.

Conclusions

The study findings underscore the economic vulnerability that the pandemic has brought to ethnic minoritized and immigrant populations in the United States, in particular noncitizens. The study also highlights the need to incorporate documentation status as a social determinant of health. Characterizing the initial economic and mental health impact of the pandemic is important for understanding the pandemic consequences on future health. Clinical Trial Registration Number: NCT02060344.

Modeling longitudinal change in biomarkers using data from a complex survey sampling design: An application to the Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos

In observational cohort studies, there is frequently interest in modeling longitudinal change in a biomarker (ie, physiological measure indicative of metabolic dysregulation or disease; eg, blood pressure) in the absence of treatment (ie, medication), and its association with modifiable risk factors expected to affect health (eg, body mass index). However, individuals may start treatment during the study period, and consequently biomarker values observed while on treatment may be different than those that would have been observed in the absence of treatment. If treated individuals are excluded from analysis, then effect estimates may be biased if treated individuals differ systematically from untreated individuals. We addressed this concern in the setting of the Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos (HCHS/SOL), an observational cohort study that employed a complex survey sampling design to enable inference to a finite target population. We considered biomarker values measured while on treatment to be missing data, and applied missing data methodology (inverse probability weighting (IPW) and doubly robust estimation) to this problem. The proposed methods leverage information collected between study visits on when individuals started treatment, by adapting IPW and doubly robust approaches to model the treatment mechanism using survival analysis methods. This methodology also incorporates sampling weights and uses a bootstrap approach to estimate standard errors accounting for the complex survey sampling design. We investigated variance estimation for these methods, conducted simulation studies to assess statistical performance in finite samples, and applied the methodology to model temporal change in blood pressure in HCHS/SOL.

Association of Smokeless Tobacco Use With Incident Peripheral Artery Disease: Results From the Atherosclerotic Risk in Communities Study

INTRODUCTION

Cigarette smoking is associated with an increased risk for peripheral artery disease. It is unknown whether smokeless tobacco, a noncombustible form of tobacco exposure, is also associated with increased peripheral artery disease risk. Using data from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study, we tested the hypothesis that the use of smokeless tobacco is associated with a higher risk of developing peripheral artery disease.

METHODS

Participants with peripheral artery disease at baseline were excluded. Smokeless tobacco use was assessed 3 times from 1987 to 1995, and peripheral artery disease events accrued from 1987 to 2018. Smokeless tobacco was modeled as a time-dependent exposure in Cox regression models. Analyses were completed in 2021.

RESULTS

This study included 14,344 participants with a baseline mean (SD) age of 54.1 (5.7) years; 54.8% were female, and 26.4% were Black. There were 635 incident peripheral artery disease events over a median follow-up of 27.6 years (maximum of 32.1 years). The peripheral artery disease incidence rate was 4.44 per 1,000 person-years among those who used smokeless tobacco compared with 1.74 per 1,000 person-years for those who did not. The hazard ratio for current versus never smokeless tobacco use was 1.94 (95% CI=1.31, 2.88) after adjustment for sociodemographic characteristics and cigarette smoking. Peripheral artery disease incidence rate among those currently using smokeless tobacco was similar to that of those who currently smoke cigarette (3.39 per 1,000 person-years).

CONCLUSIONS

Current smokeless tobacco use was associated with high rates of peripheral artery disease, similar to cigarette smoking. Future research should evaluate the effect of cessation of noncombustible tobacco on incident peripheral artery disease.

Fine particulate matter and incident coronary heart disease events up to 10 years of follow-up among Deepwater Horizon oil spill workers

BACKGROUND

During the 2010 Deepwater Horizon (DWH) disaster, in-situ burning and flaring were conducted to remove oil from the water. Workers near combustion sites were potentially exposed to burning-related fine particulate matter (PM2.5). Exposure to PM2.5 has been linked to increased risk of coronary heart disease (CHD), but no study has examined the relationship among oil spill workers.

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the association between estimated PM2.5 from burning/flaring of oil/gas and CHD risk among the DWH oil spill workers.

METHODS

We included workers who participated in response and cleanup activities on the water during the DWH disaster (N = 9091). PM2.5 exposures were estimated using a job-exposure matrix that linked modelled PM2.5 concentrations to detailed DWH spill work histories provided by participants. We ascertained CHD events as the first self-reported physician-diagnosed CHD or a fatal CHD event that occurred after each worker's last day of burning exposure. We estimated hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI) for the associations between categories of average or cumulative daily maximum PM2.5 exposure (versus a referent category of water workers not near controlled burning) and subsequent CHD. We assessed exposure-response trends by examining continuous exposure parameters in models.

RESULTS

We observed increased CHD hazard among workers with higher levels of average daily maximum exposure (low vs. referent: HR = 1.26, 95% CI: 0.93, 1.70; high vs. referent: HR = 2.11, 95% CI: 1.08, 4.12; per 10 μg/m3 increase: HR = 1.10, 95% CI: 1.02, 1.19). We also observed suggestively elevated HRs among workers with higher cumulative daily maximum exposure (low vs. referent: HR = 1.19, 95% CI: 0.68, 2.08; medium vs. referent: HR = 1.38, 95% CI: 0.88, 2.16; high vs. referent: HR = 1.44, 95% CI: 0.96, 2.14; per 100 μg/m3-d increase: HR = 1.03, 95% CI: 1.00, 1.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Among oil spill workers, exposure to PM2.5 from flaring/burning of oil/gas was associated with increased risk of CHD.

Peripheral Artery Disease and Subsequent Risk of Infectious Disease in Older Individuals: The ARIC Study

OBJECTIVE

To quantify the association of peripheral artery disease (PAD) with infection risk because PAD has been understudied despite recognition of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease as a risk factor for infection.

METHODS

Among 5082 participants of the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study (aged 71 to 90 years during 2011-2013), we assessed the association of PAD status, based on clinical history and ankle-brachial index (ABI), with infection-related hospitalization (through December 2019) using multivariable Cox regression. We also cross-classified participants by PAD and coronary heart disease (CHD)/stroke status at baseline, with implications for polyvascular disease.

RESULTS

During the median follow-up of 6.5 years, there were 1677 infection-related hospitalizations. Peripheral artery disease (clinical history or ABI ≤0.90) was independently associated with the risk of overall infection (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 1.66 [95% CI, 1.42 to 1.94] vs ABI of 1.11 to 1.20), as was borderline low ABI of 0.91 to 1.00 (adjusted HR, 1.75 [95% CI, 1.47 to 2.07]). Results were consistent across major types of infection (ie, cellulitis, bloodstream infection, pneumonia, and urinary tract infection). For overall infection, PAD plus CHD/stroke had the highest HR of hospitalized infection (1.9), and PAD alone and CHD/stroke alone showed similar HRs of 1.6. For subtypes of infection, PAD alone had the highest HR of approximately 2 for bloodstream infection; PAD alone and PAD plus CHD/stroke had a similar risk of urinary tract infection with HR of approximately 1.7.

CONCLUSION

Peripheral artery disease and borderline low ABI were robustly associated with infection-related hospitalization of older adults. The contribution of PAD to infection risk was comparable to that of CHD/stroke, warranting clinical attention to PAD for the prevention of infectious diseases.

Decline in Lung Function From Mid-to Late-Life With Central Arterial Stiffness: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study

We investigated the association of lung function at mid-life, later in life, and its 20-year decline, with arterial stiffness later in life. We examined 5720 Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study participants who attended Visits 1 (1987-1989) and 5 (2011-2013). Lung function measures were forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1) and forced vital capacity (FVC), obtained at Visits 1, 2 (1990-1992), and 5. Central artery stiffness (carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity [cfPWV]) was measured at Visit 5. We evaluated associations of lung function with later-life central artery stiffness and cfPWV >75th percentile by multivariable linear and logistic regressions. Lung function at Visit 1 (FEV1 β: -26, 95% Confidence Interval [CI]: -48, -5; FVC β: -14, 95% CI: -32, 5) and Visit 5 (FEV1 β: -22, 95% CI: -46, 2; FVC β: -18, 95% CI: -38, 2) were inversely associated with cfPWV at Visit 5, and with odds of high cfPWV in fully adjusted models. Twenty-year decline in lung function was not associated with continuous or dichotomous measures of arterial stiffness (FEV1 β: 11, 95% CI: -46, 68; FVC β: -4, 95% CI: -52, 43). Lung function at mid-life and late-life was inversely associated with arterial stiffness in later life.

Genome-wide association analyses of physical activity and sedentary behavior provide insights into underlying mechanisms and roles in disease prevention

Although physical activity and sedentary behavior are moderately heritable, little is known about the mechanisms that influence these traits. Combining data for up to 703,901 individuals from 51 studies in a multi-ancestry meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies yields 99 loci that associate with self-reported moderate-to-vigorous intensity physical activity during leisure time (MVPA), leisure screen time (LST) and/or sedentary behavior at work. Loci associated with LST are enriched for genes whose expression in skeletal muscle is altered by resistance training. A missense variant in ACTN3 makes the alpha-actinin-3 filaments more flexible, resulting in lower maximal force in isolated type IIA muscle fibers, and possibly protection from exercise-induced muscle damage. Finally, Mendelian randomization analyses show that beneficial effects of lower LST and higher MVPA on several risk factors and diseases are mediated or confounded by body mass index (BMI). Our results provide insights into physical activity mechanisms and its role in disease prevention.

Life-Course Neighborhood Socioeconomic Status and Cardiovascular Events in Black and White Adults in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study

It has been reported that residents of low-socioeconomic-status (SES) neighborhoods have a higher risk of developing cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, most of the previous studies focused on 1-time measurement of neighborhood SES in middle-to-older adulthood and lacked demographic diversity to allow for comparisons across different race/ethnicity and sex groups. We examined neighborhood SES in childhood and young, middle, and older adulthood in association with CVD risk among Black and White men and women in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study (1996-2019). We found that lower neighborhood SES in young, middle, and older adulthood, but not in childhood, was associated with a higher risk of CVD later in life. When compared with the highest quartile, the lowest quartile of neighborhood SES in young, middle, and older adulthood was associated with 18% (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.18, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.02, 1.36), 21% (HR = 1.21, 95% CI: 1.04, 1.39), and 12% (HR = 1.12, 95% CI: 0.99, 1.26) increases in the hazard of total CVD, respectively. The association between lower neighborhood SES in older adulthood and higher CVD hazard was particularly strong among Black women. Our study findings support the role of neighborhood SES in cardiovascular health in both Black and White adults.

Periodontal disease measures and risk of incident peripheral artery disease: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study

BACKGROUND

The association of periodontal disease with atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases is well known, but not specifically with incident peripheral artery disease (PAD). Therefore, we studied the associations of periodontal disease with incident PAD in a population-based setting.

METHODS

Among 9,793 participants (aged 53-75 years) without prevalent PAD, self-reported history of periodontal disease was ascertained. Of these, 5,872 participants underwent full-mouth examinations from which periodontal status was defined using the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention-American Academy of Periodontology (CDC-AAP) definition. We quantified the association of periodontal disease with incident PAD (defined by hospital admission diagnosis or procedures) using multivariable Cox regression models.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 20.1 years, 360 participants (3.6%) developed PAD. In models accounting for potential confounders including diabetes and smoking pack-years, there was higher hazard of PAD in participants with self-reported tooth loss because of periodontal disease (hazard ratio:1.54 [95% CI:1.20-1.98]), history of periodontal disease treatment (1.37 [1.05-1.80]), and periodontal disease diagnosis (1.38 [1.09-1.74]), compared to their respective counterparts. The clinical measure of periodontal disease (n = 5,872) was not significantly associated with incident PAD in the fully adjusted model (e.g., 1.53 [0.94-2.50] in CDC-AAP-defined severe periodontal disease versus no disease).

CONCLUSION

We observed a modest association of self-reported periodontal disease, especially when resulting in tooth loss, with incident PAD in the general population. Nonetheless, a larger study with the clinical measure of periodontal disease is warranted.

Variation in Population Attributable Fraction of Dementia Associated With Potentially Modifiable Risk Factors by Race and Ethnicity in the US

IMPORTANCE

Identifying modifiable risk factors that are associated with dementia burden across racial and ethnic groups in the population can yield insights into the potential effectiveness of interventions in preventing dementia and reducing disparities.

OBJECTIVE

To calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF) of dementia associated with 12 established modifiable risk factors for all US adults, as well as separately by race and ethnicity.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This cross-sectional study used survey data from nationally representative samples of US adults. PAFs were calculated using relative risks and prevalence estimates for 12 risk factors. Relative risks were taken from meta-analyses, as reported in a 2020 systematic review. Prevalence estimates for risk factors were derived from nationally representative cross-sectional survey data collected between 2011 and 2018. Combined PAFs were adjusted for risk factor communality using weights derived from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study (1987-2018). Analyses were conducted May through October 2021.

EXPOSURES

Low education, hearing loss, traumatic brain injury, hypertension, excessive alcohol consumption, obesity, smoking, depression, social isolation, physical inactivity, diabetes, and air pollution.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

PAF for each dementia risk factor, a combined PAF, and the decrease in the number of prevalent dementia cases in 2020 that would be expected given a 15% proportional decrease in each exposure.

RESULTS

Among all US adults, an estimated 41.0% (95% CI, 22.7%-55.9%) of dementia cases were attributable to 12 risk factors. A 15% proportional decrease in each risk factor would reduce dementia prevalence in the population by an estimated 7.3% (95% CI, 3.7%-10.9%). The estimated PAF was greater for Black and Hispanic than it was for White and Asian individuals. The greatest attributable fraction of dementia cases was observed for hypertension (PAF, 20.2%; 95% CI, 6.3%-34.4%), obesity (PAF, 20.9%; 95% CI, 13.0%-28.8%), and physical inactivity (PAF, 20.1%; 95% CI, 9.1%-29.6%). These factors were also highest within each racial and ethnic group, although the proportions varied.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

A large fraction of dementia cases in the US were associated with potentially modifiable risk factors, especially for Black and Hispanic individuals. Targeting and reducing these risk factors may curb the projected rise in dementia cases over the next several decades.

Arterial stiffness and contralateral differences in blood pressure: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study

A large interarm difference in brachial systolic blood pressure (SBP) (≥10 or ≥15 mmHg) is strongly associated with elevated cardiovascular events and mortality. Evidence demonstrating whether such contralateral differences in SBP occur in ankle blood pressure and its association with arterial stiffness is scarce. The aims of this study were to characterize arm and ankle contralateral SBP differences in a sample of community‐dwelling older adults (5077), and to determine whether this difference is associated with arterial stiffness assessed by pulse wave velocity (PWV) between the heart and ankle (haPWV), femoral artery and ankle (faPWV), and brachial artery and ankle (baPWV) in the right and left sides. Prevalence of interarm SBP differences ≥10 and ≥15 mmHg was 5.1% and .7%, respectively; the corresponding prevalence for interankle SBP was 24.9% and 12.0%. Higher BMI and lower ankle‐brachial index (ABI) were significantly correlated with greater interarm SBP differences. Increased age, higher BMI, lower ABI, and greater contralateral differences in haPWV, faPWV, and baPWV were significantly correlated to greater interankle SBP differences. Interankle SBP difference ≥15 mmHg was significantly associated with contralateral differences of >80 cm/s in haPWV (OR = 1.94 [95% CI = 1.52–2.49]), >165 cm/s in faPWV (OR = 1.64 [95% CI = 1.27–2.12]), and >240 cm/s in baPWV (OR = 2.43 [95% CI = 1.94–3.05]). The associations remained significant after adjustment for age, sex, race, BMI, smoking status, and ABI. Compared with interarm differences, interankle differences in SBP are common in older adults. The magnitude of interankle, but not interarm, differences in SBP is associated with various measures of arterial stiffness.

Associations of steps per day and step intensity with the risk of diabetes: the Hispanic Community Health Study / Study of Latinos (HCHS/SOL)

BACKGROUND

Higher levels of moderate-to-vigorous physical activity have been associated with a lower risk of diabetes, but less is known about how daily step counts (steps/day) are associated with diabetes risk. Therefore, we examined the association of steps/day and step intensity with incident diabetes.

METHODS

We included 6634 adults from the population-based prospective cohort Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos (HCHS/SOL) (2008-2017). Cox proportional hazard models that accounted for complex survey design and sampling weights were used to estimate the association of baseline accelerometer-assessed steps/day and step intensity with 6-year risk of incident diabetes as hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). We further examined whether the percent of intense steps at a given accumulation of steps/day was associated with diabetes risk, and if associations were modified by specific cohort characteristics.

RESULTS

The average age of cohort members was 39 years and 52% were female. Adults had an average of 8164 steps/day and spent 12 min/day in brisk ambulation (> 100 steps/min). Over 6 years of follow-up, there were 1115 cases of diabetes. There was a suggestive lower risk of diabetes with more steps/day- adults had a 2% lower risk per 1000 steps/day (HR = 0.98 (95% CI 0.95, 1.00)). Inverse associations between average steps/day and diabetes incidence were observed across many cohort characteristics, but most importantly among adults at high risk for diabetes - those who were older, or had obesity or prediabetes. Adults who accumulated 17 min/day in brisk ambulation compared to < 2 min/day had a 31% lower risk of diabetes (HR = 0.69 (95% CI 0.53, 0.89)). A greater percent of intense steps for a given accumulation of steps/day was associated with further risk reduction.

CONCLUSION

Adults who accumulate more daily steps may have a lower risk of diabetes. Accumulating more steps/day and greater step intensity appear to be important targets for preventing diabetes.

Use of troponins in the classification of myocardial infarction from electronic health records. The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study

OBJECTIVE

Electronic health record (EHR) data are underutilized for abstracting classification criteria for heart disease. We compared extraction of EHR data on troponin I and T levels with human abstraction.

METHODS

Using EHR for hospitalizations identified through the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study in four US hospitals, we compared blood levels of troponins I and T extracted from EHR structured data elements with levels obtained through data abstraction by human abstractors to 3 decimal places. Observations were divided randomly 50/50 into training and validation sets. Bayesian multilevel logistic regression models were used to estimate agreement by hospital in first and maximum troponin levels, troponin assessment date, troponin upper limit of normal (ULN), and classification of troponin levels as normal (< ULN), equivocal (1-2× ULN), abnormal (>2× ULN), or missing.

RESULTS

Estimated overall agreement in first measured troponin level in the validation data was 88.2% (95% credible interval: 65.0%-97.5%) and 95.5% (91.2-98.2%) for the maximum troponin level observed during hospitalization. The largest variation in probability of agreement was for first troponin measured, which ranged from 66.4% to 95.8% among hospitals.

CONCLUSION

Extraction of maximum troponin values during a hospitalization from EHR structured data is feasible and accurate.

The association of Step-based metrics and adiposity in the Hispanic community Health Study/Study of Latinos

OBJECTIVE

Examine cross-sectional and longitudinal associations of accelerometer measured step volume (steps/day) and cadence with adiposity and six-year changes in adiposity in the Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos (HCHS/SOL).

METHODS

HCHS/SOL's target population was 60% female with a mean age of 41 years. Cross-sectional (n = 12,353) and longitudinal analyses (n = 9,077) leveraged adjusted complex survey regression models to examine associations between steps/day, and cadence with weight (kg), waist circumference (cm) and body mass index (kg/m2). Effect measure modification by covariates was examined.

RESULTS

Lower steps/day and intensity was associated with higher adiposity at baseline. Compared to those in the highest quartile of steps/day those in the lowest quartile have 1.42 95% CI (1.19, 1.70) times the odds of obesity. Compared to those in the highest categories of cadence step-based metrics, those in the lowest categories had a 1.62 95% CI (1.36, 1.93), 2.12 95% CI (1.63, 2.75) and 1.41 95% CI (1.16, 1.70) odds of obesity for peak 30-minute cadence, brisk walking and faster ambulation and bouts of purposeful steps and faster ambulation, respectively. Compared to those with the highest stepping cadences, those with the slowest peak 30-minute cadence and fewest minutes in bouts of purposeful steps and faster ambulation had 0.72 95% CI (0.57, 0.89) and 0.82 95% CI (0.60, 1.14) times the odds of gaining weight, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Inverse cross-sectional relationships were found for steps/day and cadence and adiposity. Over a six-year period, higher step intensity but not volume was associated with higher odds of gaining weight.

Ankle-Brachial Index and Subsequent Risk of Severe Ischemic Leg Outcomes: The ARIC Study

Background Ankle-brachial index (ABI) is used to identify lower-extremity peripheral artery disease (PAD). However, its association with severe ischemic leg outcomes (eg, amputation) has not been investigated in the general population. Methods and Results Among 13 735 ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities) study participants without clinical manifestations of PAD (mean age, 54 [SD, 5.8] years; 44.4% men; and 73.6% White) at baseline (1987-1989), we quantified the prospective association between ABI and subsequent severe ischemic leg outcomes, critical limb ischemia (PAD with rest pain or tissue loss) and ischemic leg amputation (PAD requiring amputation) according to discharge diagnosis. Over a median follow-up of ≈28 years, there were 221 and 129 events of critical limb ischemia and ischemic leg amputation, respectively. After adjusting for demographics, ABI ≤0.90 versus 1.11 to 1.20 had a ≈4-fold higher risk of critical limb ischemia and ischemic leg amputation (hazard ratios, 3.85 [95% CI, 2.09-7.11] and 4.39 [95% CI, 2.08-9.27]). The magnitude of the association was modestly attenuated after multivariable adjustment (hazard ratios, 2.44 [95% CI, 1.29-4.61] and 2.72 [95% CI, 1.25-5.91], respectively). ABI 0.91 to 1.00 and 1.01 to 1.10 were also associated with these severe leg outcomes, with hazard ratios ranging from 1.7 to 2.0 after accounting for potential clinical and demographic confounders. The associations were largely consistent across various subgroups. Conclusions In a middle-aged community-based cohort, lower ABI was independently and robustly associated with increased risk of severe ischemic leg outcomes. Our results further support ABI ≤0.90 as a threshold diagnosing PAD and also suggest the importance of recognizing the prognostic value of ABI 0.91 to 1.10 for limb prognosis.

Association between circulating Galectin-3 and arterial stiffness in older adults

Background: Galectin-3 (gal-3) is a β-galactoside-binding lectin associated tissue fibrosis and inflammation. There is limited understanding of the relationship between gal-3 and vascular health. Our aim was to assess the association between gal-3 and arterial stiffness in older adults. Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional study of 4275 participants (mean age of 75 years) from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study. Central arterial stiffness was measured by carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity (cfPWV). We evaluated the association of gal-3 with cfPWV using multivariable linear regression. Results: The median (interquartile range) gal-3 concentration was 16.5 (13.8, 19.8) ng/mL and mean cfPWV was 1163±303 cm/s. Higher gal-3 concentration was associated with greater central arterial stiffness after adjustment for age, sex, race-center, heart rate, systolic blood pressure, anti-hypertensive medication use, and current smoking status (β=36.4 cm/s change in cfPWV per log unit change in gal-3; 95% CI: 7.2, 65.5, p=0.015). The association was attenuated after adjusting for additional cardiovascular risk factors (β=17.3, 95% CI: -14.4, 49.0). Conclusions: In community-dwelling older adults, gal-3 concentration was associated with central arterial stiffness, likely sharing common pathways with traditional cardiovascular risk factors.

Ankle-brachial index and subsequent risk of incident and recurrent cardiovascular events in older adults: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The ankle-brachial index (ABI) is a diagnostic test for screening and detecting peripheral artery disease (PAD), as well as a risk enhancer in the AHA/ACC guidelines on the primary prevention of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). However, our understanding of the association between ABI and cardiovascular risk in contemporary older populations is limited. Additionally, the prognostic value of ABI among individuals with prior ASCVD is not well understood.

METHODS

Among 5,003 older adults at ARIC visit 5 (2011-2013) (4,160 without prior ASCVD [median age 74 years, 38% male], and 843 with ASCVD [median age 76 years, 65% male]), we quantified the association between ABI and the risk of heart failure (HF), and composite coronary heart disease and stroke (CHD/stroke) using multivariable Cox regression models.

RESULTS

Over a median follow-up of 5.5 years, we observed 400 CHD/stroke events and 338 HF cases (242 and 199 cases in those without prior ASCVD, respectively). In participants without a history of ASCVD, a low ABI ≤0.9 (relative to ABI 1.11-1.20) was associated with both CHD/stroke and HF (adjusted hazard ratios 2.40 [95% CI: 1.55-3.71] and 2.23 [1.40-3.56], respectively). In those with prior ASCVD, low ABI was not significantly associated with CHD/stroke, but was with HF (7.12 [2.47-20.50]). The ABI categories of 0.9-1.2 and > 1.3 were also independently associated with increased HF risk. Beyond traditional risk factors, ABI significantly improved the risk discrimination of CHD/stroke in those without ASCVD and HF, regardless of baseline ASCVD.

CONCLUSIONS

Low ABI was associated with CHD/stroke in those without prior ASCVD and higher risk of HF regardless of baseline ASCVD status. These results support ABI as a risk enhancer for guiding primary cardiovascular prevention and suggest its potential value in HF risk assessment for older adults.

Symptomatic and asymptomatic peripheral artery disease and the risk of abdominal aortic aneurysm: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Symptomatic peripheral artery disease (PAD) is a risk factor for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA). However, data on the association of asymptomatic PAD with AAA are limited. We explored the association of symptomatic and asymptomatic PAD with AAA.

METHODS

We primarily assessed a prospective association of symptomatic (based on clinical history) and asymptomatic (ankle-brachial index ≤0.9) PAD at baseline (1987-89 [ages 45-64 years]) with incident AAA in a biracial community-based cohort, the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study. We secondarily investigated a cross-sectional association of PAD with ultrasound-based AAA (diameter≥3.0 cm) (2011-13 [ages 67-91 years]).

RESULTS

Of 14,148 participants (55.1% female, 25.5% black, 0.9% with symptomatic PAD) in our prospective analysis (median follow-up 22.5 years), 530 (3.7%) developed incident AAA. Symptomatic PAD had a higher hazard ratio (HR) of incident AAA [4.91 (95%CI 2.88-8.37)], as did asymptomatic PAD with ABI≤0.9 [2.33 (1.55-3.51)], compared to the reference ABI>1.1-1.2 in demographically-adjusted models. Crude 15-year cumulative incidence of AAA in these three groups were 12.3%, 3.9%, and 1.5%, respectively. The associations remained significant after accounting for other potential confounders [corresponding HR 2.96 (95%CI 1.73-5.07) and 1.52 (95%CI 1.00-2.30), respectively]. The cross-sectional analysis demonstrated similar patterns with ultrasound-based AAA [odds ratio 2.46 (95%CI 1.26-4.81) for symptomatic PAD and 3.98 (1.96-8.08) for asymptomatic PAD in a demographically-adjusted model].

CONCLUSIONS

Our prospective and cross-sectional data show elevated risk of AAA in both symptomatic and asymptomatic PAD. Our data support the current recommendation of AAA screening in symptomatic PAD patients and suggest the potential extension to asymptomatic PAD patients as well.

Multiethnic Genome-Wide Association Study of Subclinical Atherosclerosis in Individuals With Type 2 Diabetes

BACKGROUND

Coronary artery calcification (CAC) and carotid artery intima-media thickness (cIMT) are measures of subclinical atherosclerosis in asymptomatic individuals and strong risk factors for cardiovascular disease. Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is an independent cardiovascular disease risk factor that accelerates atherosclerosis.

METHODS

We performed meta-analyses of genome-wide association studies in up to 2500 T2D individuals of European ancestry (EA) and 1590 T2D individuals of African ancestry with or without exclusion of prevalent cardiovascular disease, for CAC measured by cardiac computed tomography, and 3608 individuals of EA and 838 individuals of African ancestry with T2D for cIMT measured by ultrasonography within the CHARGE (Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology) Consortium.

RESULTS

We replicated 2 loci (rs9369640 and rs9349379 near PHACTR1 and rs10757278 near CDKN2B) for CAC and one locus for cIMT (rs7412 and rs445925 near APOE-APOC1) that were previously reported in the general EA populations. We identified one novel CAC locus (rs8000449 near CSNK1A1L/LINC00547/POSTN at 13q13.3) at P=2.0×10-8 in EA. No additional loci were identified with the meta-analyses of EA and African ancestry. The expression quantitative trait loci analysis with nearby expressed genes derived from arterial wall and metabolic tissues from the Genotype-Tissue Expression project pinpoints POSTN, encoding a matricellular protein involved in bone formation and bone matrix organization, as the potential candidate gene at this locus. In addition, we found significant associations (P<3.1×10-4) for 3 previously reported coronary artery disease loci for these subclinical atherosclerotic phenotypes (rs2891168 near CDKN2B-AS1 and rs11170820 near FLJ12825 for CAC, and rs7412 near APOE for cIMT).

CONCLUSIONS

Our results provide potential biological mechanisms that could link CAC and cIMT to increased cardiovascular disease risk in individuals with T2D.

Genetic insights into biological mechanisms governing human ovarian ageing

Reproductive longevity is essential for fertility and influences healthy ageing in women1,2, but insights into its underlying biological mechanisms and treatments to preserve it are limited. Here we identify 290 genetic determinants of ovarian ageing, assessed using normal variation in age at natural menopause (ANM) in about 200,000 women of European ancestry. These common alleles were associated with clinical extremes of ANM; women in the top 1% of genetic susceptibility have an equivalent risk of premature ovarian insufficiency to those carrying monogenic FMR1 premutations3. The identified loci implicate a broad range of DNA damage response (DDR) processes and include loss-of-function variants in key DDR-associated genes. Integration with experimental models demonstrates that these DDR processes act across the life-course to shape the ovarian reserve and its rate of depletion. Furthermore, we demonstrate that experimental manipulation of DDR pathways highlighted by human genetics increases fertility and extends reproductive life in mice. Causal inference analyses using the identified genetic variants indicate that extending reproductive life in women improves bone health and reduces risk of type 2 diabetes, but increases the risk of hormone-sensitive cancers. These findings provide insight into the mechanisms that govern ovarian ageing, when they act, and how they might be targeted by therapeutic approaches to extend fertility and prevent disease.

The ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk In Communities) Study: JACC Focus Seminar 3/8

ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk In Communities) initiated community-based surveillance in 1987 for myocardial infarction and coronary heart disease (CHD) incidence and mortality and created a prospective cohort of 15,792 Black and White adults ages 45 to 64 years. The primary aims were to improve understanding of the decline in CHD mortality and identify determinants of subclinical atherosclerosis and CHD in Black and White middle-age adults. ARIC has examined areas including health disparities, genomics, heart failure, and prevention, producing more than 2,300 publications. Results have had strong clinical impact and demonstrate the importance of population-based research in the spectrum of biomedical research to improve health.

Ascertaining Framingham heart failure phenotype from inpatient electronic health record data using natural language processing: a multicentre Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) validation study

OBJECTIVES

Using free-text clinical notes and reports from hospitalised patients, determine the performance of natural language processing (NLP) ascertainment of Framingham heart failure (HF) criteria and phenotype.

STUDY DESIGN

A retrospective observational study design of patients hospitalised in 2015 from four hospitals participating in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study was used to determine NLP performance in the ascertainment of Framingham HF criteria and phenotype.

SETTING

Four ARIC study hospitals, each representing an ARIC study region in the USA.

PARTICIPANTS

A stratified random sample of hospitalisations identified using a broad range of International Classification of Disease, ninth revision, diagnostic codes indicative of an HF event and occurring during 2015 was drawn for this study. A randomly selected set of 394 hospitalisations was used as the derivation dataset and 406 hospitalisations was used as the validation dataset.

INTERVENTION

Use of NLP on free-text clinical notes and reports to ascertain Framingham HF criteria and phenotype.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

NLP performance as measured by sensitivity, specificity, positive-predictive value (PPV) and agreement in ascertainment of Framingham HF criteria and phenotype. Manual medical record review by trained ARIC abstractors was used as the reference standard.

RESULTS

Overall, performance of NLP ascertainment of Framingham HF phenotype in the validation dataset was good, with 78.8%, 81.7%, 84.4% and 80.0% for sensitivity, specificity, PPV and agreement, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

By decreasing the need for manual chart review, our results on the use of NLP to ascertain Framingham HF phenotype from free-text electronic health record data suggest that validated NLP technology holds the potential for significantly improving the feasibility and efficiency of conducting large-scale epidemiologic surveillance of HF prevalence and incidence.

Relationship Between Central Artery Stiffness, Brain Arterial Dilation, and White Matter Hyperintensities in Older Adults: The ARIC Study-Brief Report

[Figure: see text].

Association of arterial stiffness with incident atrial fibrillation: a cohort study

Background

Stiff arteries increase left ventricular (LV) end-systolic workload, leading over time to left atrial and ventricular remodeling, and providing the substrate for atrial fibrillation (AF) development. We investigated if carotid femoral pulse wave velocity (cfPWV), a measure of central arterial stiffness, is associated with incident AF.

Methods

In 20112013, cfPWV was measured in 3882 participants of the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Cohort Study (ARIC) without prevalent AF. Participants were followed through 2017 for the incidence of AF. Individuals were categorized in cfPWV quartiles based on visit measurements. Multivariable Cox regression models were used to evaluate the association of cfPWV with incident AF.

Results

Mean age was 75years (SD 5), 60% were female and 20% were African American. Over a median follow-up of 5.5years we identified 331 incident cases of AF. cfPWV demonstrated U-shaped associations with AF risk. In models adjusted for age, race, center, sex, education levels, and hemodynamic and clinical factors, hazard ratios (HR) of AF for participants in the first, third and fourth quartiles were 1.49 (95% CI 1.06, 2.10), 1.59 (1.14, 2.10), and 1.56(1.10, 2.19), respectively, compared to those in the second quartile.

Conclusion

Among community-dwelling older adults, low and high central arterial stiffness is associated with AF risk.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12872-021-02057-8.

Soluble Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme 2, Cardiac Biomarkers, Structure, and Function, and Cardiovascular Events (from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study)

Membrane-bound angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 is important in regulation of the renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system, but the association of cleaved soluble ACE2 (sACE2) with cardiovascular disease (CVD) is unclear. We evaluated the association of sACE2 with cardiac biomarkers, structure, and function and cardiovascular events in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study. sACE2 was measured in a subset of 497 participants (mean age 78±5.4 years, 53% men, 27% black); Cox regression analyses assessed prospective associations of sACE2 with time to first CVD event at median 6.1-year follow-up. sACE2 was higher in men, blacks, and participants with prevalent CVD, diabetes, or hypertension. Higher sACE2 levels were associated with significantly higher biomarkers of cardiac injury (high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I and T, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide), greater left ventricular mass index, and impaired diastolic function in linear regression analyses, and with increased risk for heart failure hospitalization (adjusted hazard ratio per natural log unit increase [HR] 1.32, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.10 to 1.58), CVD events (HR 1.34, 95% CI 1.13 to 1.60), and all-cause death (HR 1.26, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.57). In an elderly biracial cohort, sACE2 was positively associated with biomarkers reflecting myocardial injury and neurohormonal activation, left ventricular mass index, impaired diastolic function, CVD, events and all-cause death.

Risk of peripheral artery disease according to race and sex: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Previous community-based studies have demonstrated sex and race-based disparities in the risk of cardiovascular disease. We sought to examine the association of sex and race with incident peripheral artery disease (PAD-) and critical limb ischemia (CLI-) related hospitalizations.

METHODS

In 13,451 Black and White ARIC participants without prevalent PAD at baseline (1987-89), we estimated the cumulative incidence of PAD- and CLI-related hospitalization over a median follow-up of 26 years. We quantified hazard ratios (HRs) using Cox models across four sex- and race-groups. PAD and CLI were defined by hospitalization discharge codes.

RESULTS

The cumulative incidence of PAD-related hospitalization was higher in males than females in Whites (5.1% vs. 2.7%; p<0.001) but not in Blacks (5.7% vs. 5.0%; p=0.39). The cumulative incidence of CLI-related hospitalization differed significantly by race more than sex, occurring in 3.1% Black males, 3.1% Black females, 1.4% White males, and 0.8% White females (p<0.001). After risk factor adjustment, the risk of incident PAD-related hospitalization was similar for White males vs. White females [HR 1.14, 95%CI 0.90-1.45], and slightly higher for Black males [HR 1.26, 95%CI 0.92-1.72] and Black females [HR 1.39, 95%CI 1.03-1.87] compared to White females. The adjusted risk of incident CLI-related hospitalization was similar for White males vs. White females [HR 1.15, 95%CI 0.75-1.76], and significantly higher for Black males [HR 1.96, 95%CI 1.22-3.16] and Black females [HR 2.06, 95%CI 1.31-3.24] compared to White females.

CONCLUSIONS

These data suggest that there are both sex- and race-specific patterns of PAD-related hospitalization that lead to differences in clinical disease risk and presentation.

Conventional and Novel Lipid Measures and Risk of Peripheral Artery Disease

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to comprehensively assess the association of multiple lipid measures with incident peripheral artery disease (PAD). Approach and Results: We used Cox proportional hazards models to characterize the associations of each of the fasting lipid measures (total cholesterol, LDL-C [low-density lipoprotein cholesterol], HDL-C [high-density lipoprotein cholesterol], triglycerides, RLP-C [remnant lipoprotein cholesterol], LDL-TG [LDL-triglycerides], sdLDL-C [small dense LDL-C], and Apo-E-HDL [Apo-E-containing HDL-C]) with incident PAD identified by pertinent International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification (ICD-9-CM) hospital discharge codes (eg, 440.2) among 8330 Black and White ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities) participants (mean age 62.8 [SD 5.6] years) free of PAD at baseline (1996-1998) through 2015. Since lipid traits are biologically correlated to each other, we also conducted principal component analysis to identify underlying components for PAD risk. There were 246 incident PAD cases with a median follow-up of 17 years. After accounting for potential confounders, the following lipid measures were significantly associated with PAD (hazard ratio per 1-SD increment [decrement for HDL-C and Apo-E-HDL]): triglycerides, 1.21 (95% CI, 1.08-1.36); RLP-C, 1.18 (1.08-1.29); LDL-TG, 1.18 (1.05-1.33); HDL-C, 1.39 (1.16-1.67); and Apo-E-HDL, 1.27 (1.07-1.51). The principal component analysis identified 3 components (1: mainly loaded by triglycerides, RLP-C, LDL-TG, and sdLDL-C; 2: by HDL-C and Apo-E-HDL; and 3: by LDL-C and RLP-C). Components 1 and 2 showed independent associations with incident PAD.

CONCLUSIONS

Triglyceride-related and HDL-related lipids were independently associated with incident PAD, which has implications on preventive strategies for PAD. However, none of the novel lipid measures outperformed conventional ones. Graphic Abstract: A graphic abstract is available for this article.

Short-term repeatability of the peguero-lo presti electrocardiographic left ventricular hypertrophy criteria

Background

Electrocardiographic left ventricular hypertrophy (ECG‐LVH) represents preclinical cardiovascular disease and predicts cardiovascular disease morbidity and mortality. While the newly developed Peguero‐Lo Presti ECG‐LVH criteria have greater sensitivity for LVH than the Cornell voltage and Sokolow–Lyon criteria, its short‐term repeatability is unknown. Therefore, we characterized the short‐term repeatability of Peguero‐Lo Presti ECG‐LVH criteria and evaluate its agreement with Cornell voltage and Sokolow–Lyon ECG‐LVH criteria.

Methods

Participants underwent two resting, standard, 12‐lead ECGs at each of two visits one week apart (n = 63). We defined a Peguero‐Lo Presti index as a sum of the deepest S wave amplitude in any single lead and lead V₄ (i.e., S_D + SV₄) and defined Peguero‐Lo Presti LVH index as ≥ 2,300 µV among women and ≥ 2,800 µV among men. We estimated repeatability as an intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC), agreement as a prevalence‐adjusted bias‐adjusted kappa coefficient (κ), and precision using 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

Results

The Peguero‐Lo Presti index was repeatable: ICC (95% CI) = 0.94 (0.91–0.97). Within‐visit agreement of Peguero‐Lo Presti LVH was high at the first and second visits: κ (95% CI) = 0.97 (0.91–1.00) and 1.00 (1.00–1.00). Between‐visit agreement of the first and second measurements at each visit was comparable: κ (95% CI) = 0.90 (0.80–1.00) and 0.93 (0.85–1.00). Agreement of Peguero‐Lo Presti and Cornell or Sokolow–Lyon LVH on any one of the four ECGs was slightly lower: κ (95% CI) = 0.71 (0.54–0.89).

Conclusion

The Peguero‐Lo Presti index and LVH have excellent repeatability and agreement, which support their use in clinical and epidemiological studies.

Prospective Analysis of Leisure-Time Physical Activity in Midlife and Beyond and Brain Damage on MRI in Older Adults

OBJECTIVE

To test the hypothesis that greater levels of leisure-time moderate to vigorous intensity physical activity (MVPA) in midlife or late life are associated with larger gray matter volumes, less white matter disease, and fewer cerebrovascular lesions measured in late life, we utilized data from 1,604 participants enrolled in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study.

METHODS

Leisure-time MVPA was quantified using a past-year recall, interviewer-administered questionnaire at baseline and 25 years later and classified as none, low, middle, and high at each time point. The presence of cerebrovascular lesions, white matter hyperintensities (WMH), white matter integrity (mean fractional anisotropy [FA] and mean diffusivity [MD]), and gray matter volumes were quantified with 3T MRI in late life. The odds of cerebrovascular lesions were estimated with logistic regression. Linear regression estimated the mean differences in WMH, mean FA and MD, and gray matter volumes.

RESULTS

Among 1,604 participants (mean age 53 years, 61% female, 27% Black), 550 (34%), 176 (11%), 250 (16%), and 628 (39%) reported no, low, middle, and high MVPA in midlife, respectively. Compared to no MVPA in midlife, high MVPA was associated with more intact white matter integrity in late life (mean FA difference 0.13 per SD [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.004, 0.26]; mean MD difference -0.11 per SD [95% CI -0.21, -0.004]). High MVPA in midlife was also associated with a lower odds of lacunar infarcts (odds ratio 0.68, 95% CI 0.46, 0.99). High MVPA was not associated with gray matter volumes. High MVPA compared to no MVPA in late life was associated with most brain measures.

CONCLUSION

Greater levels of physical activity in midlife may protect against cerebrovascular sequelae in late life.

Low Liver Enzymes and Risk of Dementia: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study

BACKGROUND

Low levels of alanine aminotransferase (ALT) and aspartate aminotransferase (AST) in the low physiologic range, surrogate markers for reduced liver metabolic function, are associated with cerebral hypometabolism, impairment in neurotransmitter production and synaptic maintenance, and a higher prevalence of dementia. It is unknown whether a prospective association exists between low liver enzyme levels and incident dementia.

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether low levels of ALT and AST are associated with higher risk of incident dementia.

METHODS

Plasma ALT and AST were measured on 10,100 study participants (mean age 63.2 years, 55% female, 22% black) in 1996-1998. Dementia was ascertained from comprehensive neuropsychological assessments, annual contact, and medical record surveillance. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate the association.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 18.3 years (maximum 21.9 years), 1,857 individuals developed dementia. Adjusted for demographic factors, incidence rates of dementia were higher at the lower levels of ALT and AST. Compared to the second quintile, ALT values <10th percentile were associated with a higher risk of dementia (hazard ratio [HR] 1.34, 95% CI 1.08-1.65). The corresponding HR was 1.22 (0.99-1.51) for AST.

CONCLUSION

Plasma aminotransferases <10th percentile of the physiologic range at mid-life, particularly ALT, were associated with greater long-term risk of dementia, advocating for attention to the putative role of hepatic function in the pathogenesis of dementia.

Discovery of rare variants associated with blood pressure regulation through meta-analysis of 1.3 million individuals

Genetic studies of blood pressure (BP) to date have mainly analyzed common variants (minor allele frequency > 0.05). In a meta-analysis of up to ~1.3 million participants, we discovered 106 new BP-associated genomic regions and 87 rare (minor allele frequency ≤ 0.01) variant BP associations (P < 5 × 10-8), of which 32 were in new BP-associated loci and 55 were independent BP-associated single-nucleotide variants within known BP-associated regions. Average effects of rare variants (44% coding) were ~8 times larger than common variant effects and indicate potential candidate causal genes at new and known loci (for example, GATA5 and PLCB3). BP-associated variants (including rare and common) were enriched in regions of active chromatin in fetal tissues, potentially linking fetal development with BP regulation in later life. Multivariable Mendelian randomization suggested possible inverse effects of elevated systolic and diastolic BP on large artery stroke. Our study demonstrates the utility of rare-variant analyses for identifying candidate genes and the results highlight potential therapeutic targets.

Associations of Leisure-Time Physical Activity and Television Viewing with Life Expectancy Cancer-Free at Age 50: The ARIC Study

BACKGROUND

Physical activity has been associated with longer chronic disease-free life expectancy, but specific cancer types have not been investigated. We examined whether leisure-time moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (LTPA) and television (TV) viewing were associated with life expectancy cancer-free.

METHODS

We included 14,508 participants without a cancer history from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study. We used multistate survival models to separately examine associations of LTPA (no LTPA,

RESULTS

Compared with no LTPA, participants who engaged in LTPA ≥median had a greater life expectancy cancer-free from colorectal [men-2.2 years (95% confidence interval (CI), 1.7-2.7), women-2.3 years (95% CI, 1.7-2.8)], lung [men-2.1 years (95% CI, 1.5-2.6), women-2.1 years (95% CI, 1.6-2.7)], prostate [1.5 years (95% CI, 0.8-2.2)], and postmenopausal breast cancer [2.4 years (95% CI, 1.4-3.3)]. Compared with watching TV often/very often, participants who seldom/never watched TV had a greater colorectal, lung, and postmenopausal breast cancer-free life expectancy of ∼1 year.

CONCLUSIONS

Participating in LTPA was associated with longer life expectancy cancer-free from colorectal, lung, prostate, and postmenopausal breast cancer. Viewing less TV was associated with more years lived cancer-free from colorectal, lung, and postmenopausal breast cancer.

IMPACT

Increasing physical activity and reducing TV viewing may extend the number of years lived cancer-free.

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Key Words Collapse

MESH Headings

• Adult
• Aged
• Exercise/physiology
• Female
• Humans
• Life Expectancy/trends
• Male
• Middle Aged
• Neoplasms/epidemiology
• Risk Factors
• Television/trends
• Time Factors

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Grants

• P30 CA016086 NCI NIH HHS
• HHSN268201700002C NHLBI NIH HHS
• HHSN268201700001I NHLBI NIH HHS
• HHSN268201700004I NHLBI NIH HHS
• HHSN268201700004C NHLBI NIH HHS
• HHSN268201700003I NHLBI NIH HHS
• HHSN268201700005C NHLBI NIH HHS
• HHSN268201700001C NHLBI NIH HHS
• HHSN268201700003C NHLBI NIH HHS
• HHSN268201700002I NHLBI NIH HHS
• HHSN268201700005I NHLBI NIH HHS
• T32 HL007055 NHLBI NIH HHS
• U01 CA164975 NCI NIH HHS

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Affiliation(s)

Carmen C Cuthbertson Department of Epidemiology, Gillings School of Global Public Health, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina.
Hazel B Nichols Department of Epidemiology, Gillings School of Global Public Health, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina
Xianming Tan Department of Biostatistics, Gillings School of Global Public Health, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina
Anna Kucharska-Newton Department of Epidemiology, Gillings School of Global Public Health, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina
Gerardo Heiss Department of Epidemiology, Gillings School of Global Public Health, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina
Corinne E Joshu Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland
Elizabeth A Platz Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland
Kelly R Evenson Department of Epidemiology, Gillings School of Global Public Health, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina

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Serum magnesium, bone-mineral metabolism markers and their interactions with kidney function on subsequent risk of peripheral artery disease: the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study

BACKGROUND

Few studies have investigated the association of magnesium levels with incident peripheral artery disease (PAD) despite emerging evidence of magnesium contributing to vascular calcification. Moreover, no data are available on whether the magnesium-PAD relationship is independent of or modified by kidney function.

METHODS

A cohort of 11 839 participants free of PAD in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study at Visit 2 (1990-92) was studied. We investigated the association of serum magnesium and other bone-mineral metabolism markers [calcium, phosphorus, intact parathyroid hormone (iPTH) and intact fibroblast growth factor-23] with incident PAD using multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression.

RESULTS

Over a median of 23 years, there were 471 cases of incident PAD. The hazard ratio for incident PAD in Quartile 1 (<1.5 mEq/L) versus Quartile 4 (>1.7 mEq/L) of magnesium was 1.96 (95% confidence interval 1.40-2.74) after adjustment for potential confounders. Lower magnesium levels were associated with greater incidence of PAD, particularly in those with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) ≥60 mL/min/1.73 m2 (n = 11 606). In contrast, the association was largely flat in those with eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m2 (n = 233) with P-for-interaction 0.03. Among bone-mineral metabolism markers, only higher iPTH showed an interaction with kidney function (P-for-interaction 0.01) and iPTH >65 pg/mL was significantly related to PAD only in those with eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m2.

CONCLUSIONS

Lower magnesium was independently associated with incident PAD, but this association was significantly weaker in those with reduced kidney function. In contrast, higher iPTH levels were particularly related to PAD risk in this clinical population.

Predictors of Mortality by Sex and Race in Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction: ARIC Community Surveillance Study

Background

Heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) accounts for half of heart failure hospitalizations, with limited data on predictors of mortality by sex and race. We evaluated for differences in predictors of all‐cause mortality by sex and race among hospitalized patients with HFpEF in the ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities) Community Surveillance Study.

Methods and Results

Adjudicated HFpEF hospitalization events from 2005 to 2013 were analyzed from the ARIC Community Surveillance Study, comprising 4 US communities. Comparisons between clinical characteristics and mortality at 1 year were made by sex and race. Of 4335 adjudicated acute decompensated heart failure cases, 1892 cases (weighted n=8987) were categorized as HFpEF. Men had an increased risk of 1‐year mortality compared with women in adjusted analysis (hazard ratio [HR], 1.27; 95% CI, 1.06–1.52 [P=0.01]). Black participants had lower mortality compared with White participants in unadjusted and adjusted analyses (HR, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.64–0.97 [P=0.02]). Age, heart rate, worsening renal function, and low hemoglobin were associated with increased mortality in all subgroups. Higher body mass index was associated with improved survival in men, with borderline interaction by sex. Higher blood pressure was associated with improved survival among all groups, with significant interaction by race.

Conclusions

In a diverse HFpEF population, men had worse survival compared with women, and Black participants had improved survival compared with White participants. Age, heart rate, and worsening renal function were associated with increased mortality across all subgroups; high blood pressure was associated with decreased mortality with interaction by race. These insights into sex‐ and race‐based differences in predictors of mortality may help strategize targeted management of HFpEF.

Life-Course Individual and Neighborhood Socioeconomic Status and Risk of Dementia in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Neurocognitive Study

We examined associations of individual- and neighborhood-level life-course (LC) socioeconomic status (SES) with incident dementia in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities cohort. Individual- and neighborhood-level SES were assessed at 3 life epochs (childhood, young adulthood, midlife) via questionnaire (2001-2002) and summarized into LC-SES scores. Dementia was ascertained through 2013 using cognitive exams, telephone interviews, and hospital and death certificate codes. Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios of dementia by LC-SES scores in race-specific models. The analyses included data from 12,599 participants (25% Black) in the United States, with a mean age of 54 years and median follow-up of 24 years. Each standard-deviation greater individual LC-SES score was associated with a 14% (hazard ratio (HR) = 0.86, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.81, 0.92) lower risk of dementia in White and 21% (HR = 0.79, 95% CI: 0.71, 0.87) lower risk in Black participants. Education was removed from the individual LC-SES score and adjusted for separately to assess economic factors of LC-SES. A standard-deviation greater individual LC-SES score, without education, was associated with a 10% (HR = 0.90, 95% CI: 0.84, 0.97) lower dementia risk in White and 15% (HR = 0.85, 95% CI: 0.76, 0.96) lower risk in Black participants. Neighborhood LC-SES was not associated with dementia. We found that individual LC-SES is a risk factor for dementia, whereas neighborhood LC-SES was not associated.

Fibrosis and Inflammatory Markers and Long-Term Risk of Peripheral Artery Disease: The ARIC Study

OBJECTIVE

Inflammatory markers, such as hs-CRP (high-sensitivity C-reactive protein), have been reported to be related to peripheral artery disease (PAD). Galectin-3, a biomarker of fibrosis, has been linked to vascular remodeling and atherogenesis. However, its prospective association with incident PAD is unknown; as is the influence of inflammation on the association between galectin-3 and PAD. Approach and Results: In 9851 Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study participants free of PAD at baseline (1996-1998), we quantified the association of galactin-3 and hs-CRP with incident PAD (hospitalizations with PAD diagnosis [International Classification of Diseases-Ninth Revision: 440.2-440.4] or leg revascularization [eg, International Classification of Diseases-Ninth Revision: 38.18]) as well as its severe form, critical limb ischemia (PAD cases with resting pain, ulcer, gangrene, or leg amputation) using Cox models. Over a median follow-up of 17.4 years, there were 316 cases of PAD including 119 critical limb ischemia cases. Log-transformed galectin-3 was associated with incident PAD (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.17 [1.05-1.31] per 1 SD increment) and critical limb ischemia (1.25 [1.05-1.49] per 1 SD increment). The association was slightly attenuated after further adjusting for hs-CRP (1.14 [1.02-1.27] and 1.22 [1.02-1.45], respectively). Log-transformed hs-CRP demonstrated robust associations with PAD and critical limb ischemia even after adjusting for galectin-3 (adjusted hazard ratio per 1 SD increment 1.34 [1.18-1.52] and 1.34 [1.09-1.65], respectively). The addition of galectin-3 and hs-CRP to traditional atherosclerotic predictors (C statistic of the base model 0.843 [0.815-0.871]) improved the risk prediction of PAD (ΔC statistics, 0.011 [0.002-0.020]).

CONCLUSIONS

Galectin-3 and hs-CRP were independently associated with incident PAD in the general population, supporting the involvement of fibrosis and inflammation in the pathophysiology of PAD.

Nine-Year Ethanol Intake Trajectories and Their Association With 15-Year Cognitive Decline Among Black and White Adults

Faster rates of age-related cognitive decline might result in early onset of cognitive impairment and dementia. The relationship between ethanol intake and cognitive decline, although studied extensively, remains poorly understood. Previous studies used single measurements of ethanol, and few were conducted in diverse populations. We assessed the association of 9-year trajectories of ethanol intake (1987-1998) with 15-year rate of decline in cognitive performance from mid- to late life (1996-2013) among 2,169 Black and 8,707 White participants of the US Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study using multivariable linear regression models. We hypothesized that stable, low to moderate drinking would be associated with lesser 15-year cognitive decline, and stable, heavy drinking with greater 15-year cognitive decline. Stable, low to moderate drinking (for Blacks, adjusted mean difference (MD) = 0.03 (95% confidence interval (CI): -0.13, 0.19); for Whites, adjusted MD = 0.02 (95% CI: -0.05, 0.08)) and stable, heavy drinking (for Blacks, adjusted MD = 0.08 (95% CI: -0.34, 0.50); for Whites, adjusted MD = -0.03 (95% CI: -0.18, 0.11)) in midlife compared with stable never-drinking were not associated with 15-year decline in general cognitive function from mid- to late life. No association was observed for the stable former and "mostly" drinking trajectories with 15-year cognitive decline. Stable low, low to moderate, and stable heavy drinking in midlife are not associated with lesser and greater cognitive decline, respectively, from mid- to late life among Black and White adults.

Hypothetical interventions and risk of myocardial infarction in a general population: application of the parametric g-formula in a longitudinal cohort study-the Tromsø Study

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to use the parametric g-formula to estimate the 19-year risk of myocardial infarction (MI) under hypothetical interventions on six cardiovascular risk factors.

DESIGN AND SETTING

A populations-based cohort study with repeated measurements, the Tromsø Study.

PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURE

Myocardial infarction.

PARTICIPANTS

We estimated the relative and absolute risk reduction under feasible and intensive risk reduction strategies for smoking, physical activity, alcohol drinking, body mass index, total serum cholesterol and systolic blood pressure in 14 965 men and women with 19 years of follow-up (1994-2013).

RESULTS

The estimated 19-year risk of MI under no intervention was 7.5% in individuals with baseline mean age 49.3 years (range 25-69). This risk was reduced by 30% (95% CI 19% to 39%) under joint feasible interventions on all risk factors, and 70% (60%, 78%) under a set of more intensive interventions. The most effective interventions were lowering of total cholesterol to 5.18 mmol/L and lowering of systolic blood pressure to 120 mm Hg (33% and 37% lower MI risk, respectively). The absolute risk reductions were significantly larger in men, in older participants, in smokers and in those with low education.

CONCLUSION

Modification of population levels of cardiovascular risk factors could have prevented close to one-third of the cases of MI in the municipality of Tromsø during 19 years of follow-up.

Insulin resistance and reduced cardiac autonomic function in older adults: the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study

Background

Prior studies have shown insulin resistance is associated with reduced cardiac autonomic function measured at rest, but few studies have determined whether insulin resistance is associated with reduced cardiac autonomic function measured during daily activities.

Methods

We examined older adults without diabetes with 48-h ambulatory electrocardiography (n = 759) in an ancillary study of the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study. Insulin resistance, the exposure, was defined by quartiles for three indexes: 1) the homeostatic model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR), 2) the triglyceride and glucose index (TyG), and 3) the triglyceride to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio (TG/HDL-C). Low heart rate variability, the outcome, was defined by <25th percentile for four measures: 1) standard deviation of normal-to-normal R-R intervals (SDNN), a measure of total variability; 2) root mean square of successive differences in normal-to-normal R-R intervals (RMSSD), a measure of vagal activity; 3) low frequency spectral component (LF), a measure of sympathetic and vagal activity; and 4) high frequency spectral component (HF), a measure of vagal activity. Logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals weighted for sampling/non-response, adjusted for age at ancillary visit, sex, and race/study-site. Insulin resistance quartiles 4, 3, and 2 were compared to quartile 1; high indexes refer to quartile 4 versus quartile 1.

Results

The average age was 78 years, 66% (n = 497) were women, and 58% (n = 438) were African American. Estimates of association were not robust at all levels of HOMA-IR, TyG, and TG/HDL-C, but suggest that high indexes were associated consistently with indicators of vagal activity. High HOMA-IR, high TyG, and high TG/HDL-C were consistently associated with low RMSSD (OR: 1.68 (1.00, 2.81), OR: 2.03 (1.21, 3.39), and OR: 1.73 (1.01, 2.91), respectively). High HOMA-IR, high TyG, and high TG/HDL-C were consistently associated with low HF (OR: 1.90 (1.14, 3.18), OR: 1.98 (1.21, 3.25), and OR: 1.76 (1.07, 2.90), respectively).

Conclusions

In older adults without diabetes, insulin resistance was associated with reduced cardiac autonomic function – specifically and consistently for indicators of vagal activity – measured during daily activities. Primary prevention of insulin resistance may reduce the related risk of cardiac autonomic dysfunction.