Time-to-Event Genome-Wide Association Study for Incident Cardiovascular Disease in People With Type 2 Diabetes

OBJECTIVE

To identify genetic risk factors for incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) among people with type 2 diabetes (T2D).

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We conducted a multiancestry time-to-event genome-wide association study for incident CVD among people with T2D. We also tested 204 known coronary artery disease (CAD) variants for association with incident CVD.

RESULTS

Among 49,230 participants with T2D, 8,956 had incident CVD events (event rate 18.2%). We identified three novel genetic loci for incident CVD: rs147138607 (near CACNA1E/ZNF648, hazard ratio [HR] 1.23, P = 3.6 × 10-9), rs11444867 (near HS3ST1, HR 1.89, P = 9.9 × 10-9), and rs335407 (near TFB1M/NOX3, HR 1.25, P = 1.5 × 10-8). Among 204 known CAD loci, 5 were associated with incident CVD in T2D (multiple comparison-adjusted P < 0.00024, 0.05/204). A standardized polygenic score of these 204 variants was associated with incident CVD with HR 1.14 (P = 1.0 × 10-16).

CONCLUSIONS

The data point to novel and known genomic regions associated with incident CVD among individuals with T2D.

The Gut Microbial Metabolite Trimethylamine N-oxide, Incident CKD, and Kidney Function Decline

BACKGROUND

Trimethylamine N-oxide (TMAO) is a gut microbiota-derived metabolite of dietary phosphatidylcholine and carnitine. Experimentally, TMAO causes kidney injury and tubulointerstitial fibrosis. Little is known about prospective associations between TMAO and kidney outcomes, especially incident CKD. We hypothesized that higher plasma TMAO levels would be associated with higher risk of incident CKD and greater rate of kidney function decline.

METHODS

We included 10,564 participants from two community-based, prospective cohorts with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) ≥ 60 mL/min/1.73m2 to assess incident CKD. TMAO was measured using targeted mass spectrometry at baseline and one follow-up visit. Creatinine and Cystatin C were measured up to 4 times during follow-up and used to compute eGFR. Incident CKD was defined as an eGFR decline ≥ 30% from baseline and a resulting eGFR<60 ml/min/1.73 m2. Time-varying Cox models assessed the association of serial TMAO measures with incident CKD, adjusting for sociodemographic, lifestyle, diet, and cardiovascular disease risk factors. Linear mixed models assessed the association with annualized eGFR change in 10,009 participants with at least one follow-up eGFR measure without exclusions for baseline eGFR levels.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 9.4 years (interquartile range: 9.1-11.6 years), 979 incident CKD events occurred. Higher TMAO levels associated with higher risk of incident CKD (2nd to 5th vs. 1st quintile HR[95%CI]= 1.65 [1.22-2.23], 1.68 [1.26-2.25], 2.28 [1.72-3.02], and 2.24[1.68-2.98], respectively) and greater annualized eGFR decline ( 2nd to 5th vs. 1st quintile annualized eGFR change= -0.21 [-0.32, -0.09], -0.17 [-0.29, -0.05], -0.35 [-0.47, -0.22], and -0.43[-0.56, -0.30], respectively) with monotonic dose-response relationships. These associations were consistent across different racial/ethnic groups examined. The association with eGFR decline was similar to or larger than that seen for established CKD risk factors including diabetes, per 10 mmHg of higher systolic blood pressure, per 10 years of older age, and Black race.

CONCLUSIONS

In community-based US adults, higher serial measures of plasma TMAO were associated with higher risk of incident CKD and greater annualized kidney function decline.

A polygenic risk score of atrial fibrillation improves prediction of lifetime risk for heart failure

AIMS

Heart failure (HF) has shared genetic architecture with its risk factors: atrial fibrillation (AF), body mass index (BMI), coronary heart disease (CHD), systolic blood pressure (SBP), and type 2 diabetes (T2D). We aim to assess the association and risk prediction performance of risk-factor polygenic risk scores (PRSs) for incident HF and its subtypes in bi-racial populations.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Five PRSs were constructed for AF, BMI, CHD, SBP, and T2D in White participants of the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study. The associations between PRSs and incident HF and its subtypes were assessed using Cox models, and the risk prediction performance of PRSs was assessed using C statistics. Replication was performed in the ARIC study Black and Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS) White participants. In 8624 ARIC study Whites, 1922 (31% cumulative incidence) HF cases developed over 30 years of follow-up. PRSs of AF, BMI, and CHD were associated with incident HF (P < 0.001), where PRSAF showed the strongest association [hazard ratio (HR): 1.47, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.41-1.53]. Only the addition of PRSAF to the ARIC study HF risk equation improved C statistics for 10 year risk prediction from 0.812 to 0.829 (∆C: 0.017, 95% CI: 0.009-0.026). The PRSAF was associated with both incident HF with reduced ejection fraction (HR: 1.43, 95% CI: 1.27-1.60) and incident HF with preserved ejection fraction (HR: 1.46, 95% CI: 1.33-1.62). The associations between PRSAF and incident HF and its subtypes, as well as the improved risk prediction, were replicated in the ARIC study Blacks and the CHS Whites (P < 0.050). Protein analyses revealed that N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide and other 98 proteins were associated with PRSAF.

CONCLUSIONS

The PRSAF was associated with incident HF and its subtypes and had significant incremental value over an established HF risk prediction equation.

Investigating peripheral blood monocyte and T-cell subsets as non-invasive biomarkers for asymptomatic hepatic steatosis: results from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

Background

Circulating immune cells have gained interest as biomarkers of hepatic steatosis. Data on the relationships between immune cell subsets and early-stage steatosis in population-based cohorts are limited.

Methods

This study included 1,944 asymptomatic participants of the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) with immune cell phenotyping and computed tomography measures of liver fat. Participants with heavy alcohol use were excluded. A liver-to-spleen ratio Hounsfield units (HU) <1.0 and liver attenuation <40 HU were used to diagnose liver fat presence and >30% liver fat content, respectively. Logistic regression estimated cross-sectional associations of immune cell subsets with liver fat parameters adjusted for risk factors. We hypothesized that higher proportions of non-classical monocytes, Th1, Th17, and memory CD4+ T cells, and lower proportions of classical monocytes and naive CD4+ T cells, were associated with liver fat. Exploratory analyses evaluated additional immune cell phenotypes (n = 19).

Results

None of the hypothesized cells were associated with presence of liver fat. Higher memory CD4+ T cells were associated with >30% liver fat content, but this was not significant after correction for multiple hypothesis testing (odds ratio (OR): 1.31, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.03, 1.66). In exploratory analyses unadjusted for multiple testing, higher proportions of CD8+CD57+ T cells were associated with liver fat presence (OR: 1.21, 95% CI: 1.02, 1.44) and >30% liver fat content (OR: 1.34, 95% CI: 1.07, 1.69).

Conclusions

Higher circulating memory CD4+ T cells may reflect liver fat severity. CD8+CD57+ cells were associated with liver fat presence and severity, but replication of findings is required.

A Large-Scale Genome-Wide Study of Gene-Sleep Duration Interactions for Blood Pressure in 811,405 Individuals from Diverse Populations

Although both short and long sleep duration are associated with elevated hypertension risk, our understanding of their interplay with biological pathways governing blood pressure remains limited. To address this, we carried out genome-wide cross-population gene-by-short-sleep and long-sleep duration interaction analyses for three blood pressure traits (systolic, diastolic, and pulse pressure) in 811,405 individuals from diverse population groups. We discover 22 novel gene-sleep duration interaction loci for blood pressure, mapped to genes involved in neurological, thyroidal, bone metabolism, and hematopoietic pathways. Non-overlap between short sleep (12) and long sleep (10) interactions underscores the plausibility of distinct influences of both sleep duration extremes in cardiovascular health. With several of our loci reflecting specificity towards population background or sex, our discovery sheds light on the importance of embracing granularity when addressing heterogeneity entangled in gene-environment interactions, and in therapeutic design approaches for blood pressure management.

Plasma proteomic signature of human longevity

The identification of protein targets that exhibit anti-aging clinical potential could inform interventions to lengthen the human health span. Most previous proteomics research has been focused on chronological age instead of longevity. We leveraged two large population-based prospective cohorts with long follow-ups to evaluate the proteomic signature of longevity defined by survival to 90 years of age. Plasma proteomics was measured using a SOMAscan assay in 3067 participants from the Cardiovascular Health Study (discovery cohort) and 4690 participants from the Age Gene/Environment Susceptibility-Reykjavik Study (replication cohort). Logistic regression identified 211 significant proteins in the CHS cohort using a Bonferroni-adjusted threshold, of which 168 were available in the replication cohort and 105 were replicated (corrected p value <0.05). The most significant proteins were GDF-15 and N-terminal pro-BNP in both cohorts. A parsimonious protein-based prediction model was built using 33 proteins selected by LASSO with 10-fold cross-validation and validated using 27 available proteins in the validation cohort. This protein model outperformed a basic model using traditional factors (demographics, height, weight, and smoking) by improving the AUC from 0.658 to 0.748 in the discovery cohort and from 0.755 to 0.802 in the validation cohort. We also found that the associations of 169 out of 211 proteins were partially mediated by physical and/or cognitive function. These findings could contribute to the identification of biomarkers and pathways of aging and potential therapeutic targets to delay aging and age-related diseases.

Clonal hematopoiesis of indeterminate potential is associated with acute kidney injury

Age is a predominant risk factor for acute kidney injury (AKI), yet the biological mechanisms underlying this risk are largely unknown. Clonal hematopoiesis of indeterminate potential (CHIP) confers increased risk for several chronic diseases associated with aging. Here we sought to test whether CHIP increases the risk of AKI. In three population-based epidemiology cohorts, we found that CHIP was associated with a greater risk of incident AKI, which was more pronounced in patients with AKI requiring dialysis and in individuals with somatic mutations in genes other than DNMT3A, including mutations in TET2 and JAK2. Mendelian randomization analyses supported a causal role for CHIP in promoting AKI. Non-DNMT3A-CHIP was also associated with a nonresolving pattern of injury in patients with AKI. To gain mechanistic insight, we evaluated the role of Tet2-CHIP and Jak2V617F-CHIP in two mouse models of AKI. In both models, CHIP was associated with more severe AKI, greater renal proinflammatory macrophage infiltration and greater post-AKI kidney fibrosis. In summary, this work establishes CHIP as a genetic mechanism conferring impaired kidney function recovery after AKI via an aberrant inflammatory response mediated by renal macrophages.

Familial Hypercholesterolemia Variant and Cardiovascular Risk in Individuals With Elevated Cholesterol

Importance

Familial hypercholesterolemia (FH) is a genetic disorder that often results in severely high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) and high risk of premature coronary heart disease (CHD). However, the impact of FH variants on CHD risk among individuals with moderately elevated LDL-C is not well quantified.

Objective

To assess CHD risk associated with FH variants among individuals with moderately (130-189 mg/dL) and severely (≥190 mg/dL) elevated LDL-C and to quantify excess CHD deaths attributable to FH variants in US adults.

Design, Setting, and Participants

A total of 21 426 individuals without preexisting CHD from 6 US cohort studies (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study, Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults study, Cardiovascular Health Study, Framingham Heart Study Offspring cohort, Jackson Heart Study, and Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) were included, 63 of whom had an FH variant. Data were collected from 1971 to 2018, and the median (IQR) follow-up was 18 (13-28) years. Data were analyzed from March to May 2023.

Exposures

LDL-C, cumulative past LDL-C, FH variant status.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Cox proportional hazards models estimated associations between FH variants and incident CHD. The Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model projected excess CHD deaths associated with FH variants in US adults.

Results

Of the 21 426 individuals without preexisting CHD (mean [SD] age 52.1 [15.5] years; 12 041 [56.2%] female), an FH variant was found in 22 individuals with moderately elevated LDL-C (0.3%) and in 33 individuals with severely elevated LDL-C (2.5%). The adjusted hazard ratios for incident CHD comparing those with and without FH variants were 2.9 (95% CI, 1.4-6.0) and 2.6 (95% CI, 1.4-4.9) among individuals with moderately and severely elevated LDL-C, respectively. The association between FH variants and CHD was slightly attenuated when further adjusting for baseline LDL-C level, whereas the association was no longer statistically significant after adjusting for cumulative past LDL-C exposure. Among US adults 20 years and older with no history of CHD and LDL-C 130 mg/dL or higher, more than 417 000 carry an FH variant and were projected to experience more than 12 000 excess CHD deaths in those with moderately elevated LDL-C and 15 000 in those with severely elevated LDL-C compared with individuals without an FH variant.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this pooled cohort study, the presence of FH variants was associated with a 2-fold higher CHD risk, even when LDL-C was only moderately elevated. The increased CHD risk appeared to be largely explained by the higher cumulative LDL-C exposure in individuals with an FH variant compared to those without. Further research is needed to assess the value of adding genetic testing to traditional phenotypic FH screening.

Genetic drivers of heterogeneity in type 2 diabetes pathophysiology

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is a heterogeneous disease that develops through diverse pathophysiological processes1,2 and molecular mechanisms that are often specific to cell type3,4. Here, to characterize the genetic contribution to these processes across ancestry groups, we aggregate genome-wide association study data from 2,535,601 individuals (39.7% not of European ancestry), including 428,452 cases of T2D. We identify 1,289 independent association signals at genome-wide significance (P < 5 × 10-8) that map to 611 loci, of which 145 loci are, to our knowledge, previously unreported. We define eight non-overlapping clusters of T2D signals that are characterized by distinct profiles of cardiometabolic trait associations. These clusters are differentially enriched for cell-type-specific regions of open chromatin, including pancreatic islets, adipocytes, endothelial cells and enteroendocrine cells. We build cluster-specific partitioned polygenic scores5 in a further 279,552 individuals of diverse ancestry, including 30,288 cases of T2D, and test their association with T2D-related vascular outcomes. Cluster-specific partitioned polygenic scores are associated with coronary artery disease, peripheral artery disease and end-stage diabetic nephropathy across ancestry groups, highlighting the importance of obesity-related processes in the development of vascular outcomes. Our findings show the value of integrating multi-ancestry genome-wide association study data with single-cell epigenomics to disentangle the aetiological heterogeneity that drives the development and progression of T2D. This might offer a route to optimize global access to genetically informed diabetes care.

Association of Plasma YKL-40 With MRI, CSF, and Cognitive Markers of Brain Health and Dementia

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Higher YKL-40 levels in the CSF are a known biomarker of brain inflammation. We explored the utility of plasma YKL-40 as a biomarker for accelerated brain aging and dementia risk.

METHODS

We performed cross-sectional and prospective analyses of 4 community-based cohorts in the United States or Europe: the Age, Gene/Environment Susceptibility-Reykjavik Study, Atherosclerosis Risk in the Communities study, Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults study, and Framingham Heart Study (FHS). YKL-40 was measured from stored plasma by a single laboratory using Mesoscale Discovery with levels log transformed and standardized within each cohort. Outcomes included MRI total brain volume, hippocampal volume, and white matter hyperintensity volume (WMHV) as a percentage of intracranial volume, a general cognitive composite derived from neuropsychological testing (SD units [SDU]), and the risk of incident dementia. We sought to replicate associations with dementia in the clinic-based ACE csf cohort, which also had YKL-40 measured from the CSF.

RESULTS

Meta-analyses of MRI outcomes included 6,558 dementia-free participants, and for analysis of cognition, 6,670. The blood draw preceded MRI/cognitive assessment by up to 10.6 years across cohorts. The mean ages ranged from 50 to 76 years, with 39%-48% male individuals. In random-effects meta-analysis of study estimates, each SDU increase in log-transformed YKL-40 levels was associated with smaller total brain volume (β = -0.33; 95% CI -0.45 to -0.22; p < 0.0001) and poorer cognition (β = -0.04; 95% CI -0.07 to -0.02; p < 0.01), following adjustments for demographic variables. YKL-40 levels did not associate with hippocampal volume or WMHV. In the FHS, each SDU increase in log YKL-40 levels was associated with a 64% increase in incident dementia risk over a median of 5.8 years of follow-up, following adjustments for demographic variables (hazard ratio 1.64; 95% CI 1.25-2.16; p < 0.001). In the ACE csf cohort, plasma and CSF YKL-40 were correlated (r = 0.31), and both were associated with conversion from mild cognitive impairment to dementia, independent of amyloid, tau, and neurodegeneration status.

DISCUSSION

Higher plasma YKL-40 levels were associated with lower brain volume, poorer cognition, and incident dementia. Plasma YKL-40 may be useful for studying the association of inflammation and its treatment on dementia risk.

A genetic association study of circulating coagulation Factor VIII and von Willebrand Factor levels

Coagulation Factor VIII (FVIII) and its carrier protein von Willebrand factor (VWF) are critical to coagulation and platelet aggregation. We leveraged whole genome sequence data from the Trans-Omics for Precision Medicine (TOPMed) program along with TOPMed-based imputation of genotypes in additional samples to identify genetic associations with circulating FVIII and VWF levels in a single variant meta-analysis including up to 45,289 participants. Gene-based aggregate tests were implemented in TOPMed. We identified three candidate causal genes and tested their functional effect on FVIII release from human liver endothelial cells (HLECs) and VWF release from human umbilical vein endothelial cells (HUVECs). Mendelian randomization was also performed to provide evidence for causal associations of FVIII and VWF with thrombotic outcomes. We identified associations (P<5×10-9) at seven new loci for FVIII (ST3GAL4, CLEC4M, B3GNT2, ASGR1, F12, KNG1, and TREM1/NCR2) and one for VWF (B3GNT2). VWF, ABO, and STAB2 were associated with FVIII and VWF in gene-based analyses. Multi-phenotype analysis of FVIII and VWF identified another three new loci, including PDIA3. Silencing of B3GNT2 and the previously reported CD36 gene decreased release of FVIII by HLECs, while silencing of B3GNT2, CD36, and PDIA3 decreased release of VWF by HVECs. Mendelian randomization supports causal association of higher FVIII and VWF with increased risk of thrombotic outcomes. Seven new loci were identified for FVIII and one for VWF, with evidence supporting causal associations of FVIII and VWF with thrombotic outcomes. B3GNT2, CD36, and PDIA3 modulate the release of FVIII and/or VWF in vitro.

Multi-trait analysis characterizes the genetics of thyroid function and identifies causal associations with clinical implications

To date only a fraction of the genetic footprint of thyroid function has been clarified. We report a genome-wide association study meta-analysis of thyroid function in up to 271,040 individuals of European ancestry, including reference range thyrotropin (TSH), free thyroxine (FT4), free and total triiodothyronine (T3), proxies for metabolism (T3/FT4 ratio) as well as dichotomized high and low TSH levels. We revealed 259 independent significant associations for TSH (61% novel), 85 for FT4 (67% novel), and 62 novel signals for the T3 related traits. The loci explained 14.1%, 6.0%, 9.5% and 1.1% of the total variation in TSH, FT4, total T3 and free T3 concentrations, respectively. Genetic correlations indicate that TSH associated loci reflect the thyroid function determined by free T3, whereas the FT4 associations represent the thyroid hormone metabolism. Polygenic risk score and Mendelian randomization analyses showed the effects of genetically determined variation in thyroid function on various clinical outcomes, including cardiovascular risk factors and diseases, autoimmune diseases, and cancer. In conclusion, our results improve the understanding of thyroid hormone physiology and highlight the pleiotropic effects of thyroid function on various diseases.

Proteomics for heart failure risk stratification: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Heart failure (HF) is a complex clinical syndrome with persistently high mortality. High-throughput proteomic technologies offer new opportunities to improve HF risk stratification, but their contribution remains to be clearly defined. We aimed to systematically review prognostic studies using high-throughput proteomics to identify protein signatures associated with HF mortality.

METHODS

We searched four databases and two clinical trial registries for articles published from 2012 to 2023. HF proteomics studies measuring high numbers of proteins using aptamer or antibody-based affinity platforms on human plasma or serum with outcomes of all-cause or cardiovascular death were included. Two reviewers independently screened articles, extracted data, and assessed the risk of bias. A third reviewer resolved conflicts. We assessed the risk of bias using the Risk Of Bias In Non-randomized Studies-of Exposure tool.

RESULTS

Out of 5131 unique articles identified, nine articles were included in the review. The nine studies were observational; three used the aptamer platform, and six used the antibody platform. We found considerable heterogeneity across studies in measurement panels, HF definitions, ejection fraction categorization, follow-up duration, and outcome definitions, and a lack of risk estimates for most protein associations. Hence, we proceeded with a systematic review rather than a meta-analysis. In two comparable aptamer studies in patients with HF with reduced ejection fraction, 21 proteins were identified in common for the association with all-cause death. Among these, one protein, WAP four-disulfide core domain protein 2 was also reported in an antibody study on HFrEF and for the association with CV death. We proposed standardized reporting criteria to facilitate the interpretation of future studies.

CONCLUSIONS

In this systematic review of nine studies evaluating the association of proteomics with mortality in HF, we identified a limited number of proteins common across several studies. Heterogeneity across studies compromised drawing broad inferences, underscoring the importance of standardized approaches to reporting.

Role of Polyunsaturated Fat in Modifying Cardiovascular Risk Associated With Family History of Cardiovascular Disease: Pooled De Novo Results From 15 Observational Studies

BACKGROUND

It is unknown whether dietary intake of polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA) modifies the cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk associated with a family history of CVD. We assessed interactions between biomarkers of low PUFA intake and a family history in relation to long-term CVD risk in a large consortium.

METHODS

Blood and tissue PUFA data from 40 885 CVD-free adults were assessed. PUFA levels ≤25th percentile were considered to reflect low intake of linoleic, alpha-linolenic, and eicosapentaenoic/docosahexaenoic acids (EPA/DHA). Family history was defined as having ≥1 first-degree relative who experienced a CVD event. Relative risks with 95% CI of CVD were estimated using Cox regression and meta-analyzed. Interactions were assessed by analyzing product terms and calculating relative excess risk due to interaction.

RESULTS

After multivariable adjustments, a significant interaction between low EPA/DHA and family history was observed (product term pooled RR, 1.09 [95% CI, 1.02-1.16]; P=0.01). The pooled relative risk of CVD associated with the combined exposure to low EPA/DHA, and family history was 1.41 (95% CI, 1.30-1.54), whereas it was 1.25 (95% CI, 1.16-1.33) for family history alone and 1.06 (95% CI, 0.98-1.14) for EPA/DHA alone, compared with those with neither exposure. The relative excess risk due to interaction results indicated no interactions.

CONCLUSIONS

A significant interaction between biomarkers of low EPA/DHA intake, but not the other PUFA, and a family history was observed. This novel finding might suggest a need to emphasize the benefit of consuming oily fish for individuals with a family history of CVD.

Multi-omics and pathway analyses of genome-wide associations implicate regulation and immunity in verbal declarative memory performance

BACKGROUND

Uncovering the functional relevance underlying verbal declarative memory (VDM) genome-wide association study (GWAS) results may facilitate the development of interventions to reduce age-related memory decline and dementia.

METHODS

We performed multi-omics and pathway enrichment analyses of paragraph (PAR-dr) and word list (WL-dr) delayed recall GWAS from 29,076 older non-demented individuals of European descent. We assessed the relationship between single-variant associations and expression quantitative trait loci (eQTLs) in 44 tissues and methylation quantitative trait loci (meQTLs) in the hippocampus. We determined the relationship between gene associations and transcript levels in 53 tissues, annotation as immune genes, and regulation by transcription factors (TFs) and microRNAs. To identify significant pathways, gene set enrichment was tested in each cohort and meta-analyzed across cohorts. Analyses of differential expression in brain tissues were conducted for pathway component genes.

RESULTS

The single-variant associations of VDM showed significant linkage disequilibrium (LD) with eQTLs across all tissues and meQTLs within the hippocampus. Stronger WL-dr gene associations correlated with reduced expression in four brain tissues, including the hippocampus. More robust PAR-dr and/or WL-dr gene associations were intricately linked with immunity and were influenced by 31 TFs and 2 microRNAs. Six pathways, including type I diabetes, exhibited significant associations with both PAR-dr and WL-dr. These pathways included fifteen MHC genes intricately linked to VDM performance, showing diverse expression patterns based on cognitive status in brain tissues.

CONCLUSIONS

VDM genetic associations influence expression regulation via eQTLs and meQTLs. The involvement of TFs, microRNAs, MHC genes, and immune-related pathways contributes to VDM performance in older individuals.

X-chromosome and kidney function: evidence from a multi-trait genetic analysis of 908,697 individuals reveals sex-specific and sex-differential findings in genes regulated by androgen response elements

X-chromosomal genetic variants are understudied but can yield valuable insights into sexually dimorphic human traits and diseases. We performed a sex-stratified cross-ancestry X-chromosome-wide association meta-analysis of seven kidney-related traits (n = 908,697), identifying 23 loci genome-wide significantly associated with two of the traits: 7 for uric acid and 16 for estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), including four novel eGFR loci containing the functionally plausible prioritized genes ACSL4, CLDN2, TSPAN6 and the female-specific DRP2. Further, we identified five novel sex-interactions, comprising male-specific effects at FAM9B and AR/EDA2R, and three sex-differential findings with larger genetic effect sizes in males at DCAF12L1 and MST4 and larger effect sizes in females at HPRT1. All prioritized genes in loci showing significant sex-interactions were located next to androgen response elements (ARE). Five ARE genes showed sex-differential expressions. This study contributes new insights into sex-dimorphisms of kidney traits along with new prioritized gene targets for further molecular research.

Association analysis of mitochondrial DNA heteroplasmic variants: methods and application

We rigorously assessed a comprehensive association testing framework for heteroplasmy, employing both simulated and real-world data. This framework employed a variant allele fraction (VAF) threshold and harnessed multiple gene-based tests for robust identification and association testing of heteroplasmy. Our simulation studies demonstrated that gene-based tests maintained an appropriate type I error rate at α=0.001. Notably, when 5% or more heteroplasmic variants within a target region were linked to an outcome, burden-extension tests (including the adaptive burden test, variable threshold burden test, and z-score weighting burden test) outperformed the sequence kernel association test (SKAT) and the original burden test. Applying this framework, we conducted association analyses on whole-blood derived heteroplasmy in 17,507 individuals of African and European ancestries (31% of African Ancestry, mean age of 62, with 58% women) with whole genome sequencing data. We performed both cohort- and ancestry-specific association analyses, followed by meta-analysis on both pooled samples and within each ancestry group. Our results suggest that mtDNA-encoded genes/regions are likely to exhibit varying rates in somatic aging, with the notably strong associations observed between heteroplasmy in the RNR1 and RNR2 genes (p<0.001) and advance aging by the Original Burden test. In contrast, SKAT identified significant associations (p<0.001) between diabetes and the aggregated effects of heteroplasmy in several protein-coding genes. Further research is warranted to validate these findings. In summary, our proposed statistical framework represents a valuable tool for facilitating association testing of heteroplasmy with disease traits in large human populations.

Multi-ancestry polygenic risk scores for venous thromboembolism

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a significant contributor to morbidity and mortality, with large disparities in incidence rates between Black and White Americans. Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) limited to variants discovered in genome-wide association studies in European-ancestry samples can identify European-ancestry individuals at high risk of VTE. However, there is limited evidence on whether high-dimensional PRS constructed using more sophisticated methods and more diverse training data can enhance the predictive ability and their utility across diverse populations. We developed PRSs for VTE using summary statistics from the International Network against Venous Thrombosis (INVENT) consortium GWAS meta-analyses of European- (71,771 cases and 1,059,740 controls) and African-ancestry samples (7,482 cases and 129,975 controls). We used LDpred2 and PRSCSx to construct ancestry-specific and multi-ancestry PRSs and evaluated their performance in an independent European- (6,261 cases and 88,238 controls) and African-ancestry sample (1,385 cases and 12,569 controls). Multi-ancestry PRSs with weights tuned in European- and African-ancestry samples, respectively, outperformed ancestry-specific PRSs in European- (PRSCSXEUR: AUC=0.61 (0.60, 0.61), PRSCSX_combinedEUR: AUC=0.61 (0.60, 0.62)) and African-ancestry test samples (PRSCSXAFR: AUC=0.58 (0.57, 0.6), PRSCSX_combined AFR: AUC=0.59 (0.57, 0.60)). The highest fifth percentile of the best-performing PRS was associated with 1.9-fold and 1.68-fold increased risk for VTE among European- and African-ancestry subjects, respectively, relative to those in the middle stratum. These findings suggest that the multi-ancestry PRS may be used to identify individuals at highest risk for VTE and provide guidance for the most effective treatment strategy across diverse populations.

Large-scale circulating proteome association study (CPAS) meta-analysis identifies circulating proteins and pathways predicting incident hip fractures

Hip fractures are associated with significant disability, high cost, and mortality. However, the exact biological mechanisms underlying susceptibility to hip fractures remain incompletely understood. In an exploratory search of the underlying biology as reflected through the circulating proteome, we performed a comprehensive Circulating Proteome Association Study (CPAS) meta-analysis for incident hip fractures. Analyses included 6430 subjects from two prospective cohort studies (Cardiovascular Health Study and Trøndelag Health Study) with circulating proteomics data (aptamer-based 5 K SomaScan version 4.0 assay; 4979 aptamers). Associations between circulating protein levels and incident hip fractures were estimated for each cohort using age and sex-adjusted Cox regression models. Participants experienced 643 incident hip fractures. Compared with the individual studies, inverse-variance weighted meta-analyses yielded more statistically significant associations, identifying 23 aptamers associated with incident hip fractures (conservative Bonferroni correction 0.05/4979, P < 1.0 × 10-5). The aptamers most strongly associated with hip fracture risk corresponded to two proteins of the growth hormone/insulin growth factor system (GHR and IGFBP2), as well as GDF15 and EGFR. High levels of several inflammation-related proteins (CD14, CXCL12, MMP12, ITIH3) were also associated with increased hip fracture risk. Ingenuity pathway analysis identified reduced LXR/RXR activation and increased acute phase response signaling to be overrepresented among those proteins associated with increased hip fracture risk. These analyses identified several circulating proteins and pathways consistently associated with incident hip fractures. These findings underscore the usefulness of the meta-analytic approach for comprehensive CPAS in a similar manner as has previously been observed for large-scale human genetic studies. Future studies should investigate the underlying biology of these potential novel drug targets.

Proteomic prediction of incident heart failure and its main subtypes

AIM

To examine the ability of serum proteins in predicting future heart failure (HF) events, including HF with reduced or preserved ejection fraction (HFrEF or HFpEF), in relation to event time, and with or without considering established HF-associated clinical variables.

METHODS AND RESULTS

In the prospective population-based Age, Gene/Environment Susceptibility Reykjavik Study (AGES-RS), 440 individuals developed HF after their first visit with a median follow-up of 5.45 years. Among them, 167 were diagnosed with HFrEF and 188 with HFpEF. A least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression model with non-parametric bootstrap were used to select predictors from an analysis of 4782 serum proteins, and several pre-established clinical parameters linked to HF. A subset of 8-10 distinct or overlapping serum proteins predicted different future HF outcomes, and C-statistics were used to assess discrimination, revealing proteins combined with a C-index of 0.80 for all incident HF, 0.78 and 0.80 for incident HFpEF or HFrEF, respectively. In the AGES-RS, protein panels alone encompassed the risk contained in the clinical information and improved the performance characteristics of prediction models based on N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide and clinical risk factors. Finally, the protein predictors performed particularly well close to the time of an HF event, an outcome that was replicated in the Cardiovascular Health Study.

CONCLUSION

A small number of circulating proteins accurately predicted future HF in the AGES-RS cohort of older adults, and they alone encompass the risk information found in a collection of clinical data. Incident HF events were predicted up to 8 years, with predictor performance significantly improving for events occurring less than 1 year ahead, a finding replicated in an external cohort study.

Circulating Growth Differentiation Factors 11 and 8, Their Antagonists Follistatin and Follistatin-Like-3, and Risk of Heart Failure in Elders

BACKGROUND

Heterochronic parabiosis has identified growth differentiation factor (GDF)-11 as a potential means of cardiac rejuvenation, but findings have been inconsistent. A major barrier has been lack of assay specificity for GDF-11 and its homolog GDF-8.

METHODS

We tested the hypothesis that GDF-11 and GDF-8, and their major antagonists follistatin and follistatin-like (FSTL)-3, are associated with incident heart failure (HF) and its subtypes in elders. Based on validation experiments, we used liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry to measure total serum GDF-11 and GDF-8, along with follistatin and FSTL-3 by immunoassay, in 2 longitudinal cohorts of older adults.

RESULTS

In 2 599 participants (age 75.2 ± 4.3) followed for 10.8 ± 5.6 years, 721 HF events occurred. After adjustment, neither GDF-11 (HR per doubling: 0.93 [0.67, 1.30]) nor GDF-8 (HR: 1.02 per doubling [0.83, 1.27]) was associated with incident HF or its subtypes. Positive associations with HF were detected for follistatin (HR: 1.15 [1.00, 1.32]) and FLST-3 (HR: 1.38 [1.03, 1.85]), and with HF with preserved ejection fraction for FSTL-3 (HR: 1.77 [1.03, 3.02]). (All HRs per doubling of biomarker.) FSTL-3 associations with HF appeared stronger at higher follistatin levels and vice versa, and also for men, Blacks, and lower kidney function.

CONCLUSIONS

Among older adults, serum follistatin and FSTL-3, but not GDF-11 or GDF-8, were associated with incident HF. These findings do not support the concept that low serum levels of total GDF-11 or GDF-8 contribute to HF late in life, but do implicate transforming growth factor-β superfamily pathways as potential therapeutic targets.

Development and Validation of a Protein Risk Score for Mortality in Heart Failure : A Community Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Heart failure (HF) is a complex clinical syndrome with high mortality. Current risk stratification approaches lack precision. High-throughput proteomics could improve risk prediction. Its use in clinical practice to guide the management of patients with HF depends on validation and evidence of clinical benefit.

OBJECTIVE

To develop and validate a protein risk score for mortality in patients with HF.

DESIGN

Community-based cohort.

SETTING

Southeast Minnesota.

PARTICIPANTS

Patients with HF enrolled between 2003 and 2012 and followed through 2021.

MEASUREMENTS

A total of 7289 plasma proteins in 1351 patients with HF were measured using the SomaScan Assay (SomaLogic). A protein risk score was derived using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression and temporal validation in patients enrolled between 2003 and 2007 (development cohort) and 2008 and 2012 (validation cohort). Multivariable Cox regression was used to examine the association between the protein risk score and mortality. The performance of the protein risk score to predict 5-year mortality risk was assessed using calibration plots, decision curves, and relative utility analyses and compared with a clinical model, including the Meta-Analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure mortality risk score and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide.

RESULTS

The development (n = 855; median age, 78 years; 50% women; 29% with ejection fraction <40%) and validation cohorts (n = 496; median age, 76 years; 45% women; 33% with ejection fraction <40%) were mostly similar. In the development cohort, 38 unique proteins were selected for the protein risk score. Independent of ejection fraction, the protein risk score demonstrated good calibration, reclassified mortality risk particularly at the extremes of the risk distribution, and showed greater clinical utility compared with the clinical model.

LIMITATION

Participants were predominantly of European ancestry, potentially limiting the generalizability of the findings to different patient populations.

CONCLUSION

Validation of the protein risk score demonstrated good calibration and evidence of predicted benefits to stratify the risk for death in HF superior to that of clinical methods. Further studies are needed to prospectively evaluate the score's performance in diverse populations and determine risk thresholds for interventions.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

Division of Intramural Research at the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute of the National Institutes of Health.

Traditional and novel risk factors for incident aortic stenosis in community-dwelling older adults

OBJECTIVES

Calcific aortic stenosis (AS) is the most common valvular disease in older adults, yet its risk factors remain insufficiently studied in this population. Such studies are necessary to enhance understanding of mechanisms, disease management and therapeutics.

METHODS

The Cardiovascular Health Study is a population-based investigation of older adults that completed adjudication of incident AS over long-term follow-up. We evaluated traditional cardiovascular risk factors or disease, as well as novel risk factors from lipid, inflammatory and mineral metabolism pathways, in relation to incident moderate or severe AS (including AS procedures) and clinically significant AS (severe AS, including procedures).

RESULTS

Of 5390 participants (age 72.9±5.6 years, 57.6% female, 12.5% black), 287 developed moderate or severe AS, and 175 clinically significant AS, during median follow-up of 13.1 years. After full adjustment, age (HR=1.66 per SD (95% CI=1.45, 1.91)), male sex (HR=1.41 (1.06, 1.87)), diabetes (HR=1.53 (1.10, 2.13)), coronary heart disease (CHD, HR=1.36 (1.01, 1.84)), lipoprotein-associated phospholipase-A2 (LpPLA2) activity (HR=1.21 per SD (1.07, 1.37)) and sCD14 (HR=1.16 per SD (1.01, 1.34)) were associated with incident moderate/severe AS, while black race demonstrated an inverse association (HR=0.40 (0.24, 0.65)), and creatinine-based estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFRcr) showed a U-shaped relationship. Findings were similar for clinically significant AS, although CHD and sCD14 fell short of significance, but interleukin-(IL) 6 showed a positive association.

CONCLUSION

This comprehensive evaluation of risk factors for long-term incidence of AS identified associations for diabetes and prevalent CHD, LpPLA2 activity, sCD14 and IL-6, and eGFRcr. These factors may hold clues to biology, preventive efforts and potential therapeutics for those at highest risk.

Machine learning models for blood pressure phenotypes combining multiple polygenic risk scores

We construct non-linear machine learning (ML) prediction models for systolic and diastolic blood pressure (SBP, DBP) using demographic and clinical variables and polygenic risk scores (PRSs). We developed a two-model ensemble, consisting of a baseline model, where prediction is based on demographic and clinical variables only, and a genetic model, where we also include PRSs. We evaluate the use of a linear versus a non-linear model at both the baseline and the genetic model levels and assess the improvement in performance when incorporating multiple PRSs. We report the ensemble model's performance as percentage variance explained (PVE) on a held-out test dataset. A non-linear baseline model improved the PVEs from 28.1% to 30.1% (SBP) and 14.3% to 17.4% (DBP) compared with a linear baseline model. Including seven PRSs in the genetic model computed based on the largest available GWAS of SBP/DBP improved the genetic model PVE from 4.8% to 5.1% (SBP) and 4.7% to 5% (DBP) compared to using a single PRS. Adding additional 14 PRSs computed based on two independent GWASs further increased the genetic model PVE to 6.3% (SBP) and 5.7% (DBP). PVE differed across self-reported race/ethnicity groups, with primarily all non-White groups benefitting from the inclusion of additional PRSs.

Whole genome sequence analysis of apparent treatment resistant hypertension status in participants from the Trans-Omics for Precision Medicine program

Introduction: Apparent treatment-resistant hypertension (aTRH) is characterized by the use of four or more antihypertensive (AHT) classes to achieve blood pressure (BP) control. In the current study, we conducted single-variant and gene-based analyses of aTRH among individuals from 12 Trans-Omics for Precision Medicine cohorts with whole-genome sequencing data. Methods: Cases were defined as individuals treated for hypertension (HTN) taking three different AHT classes, with average systolic BP ≥ 140 or diastolic BP ≥ 90 mmHg, or four or more medications regardless of BP (n = 1,705). A normotensive control group was defined as individuals with BP < 140/90 mmHg (n = 22,079), not on AHT medication. A second control group comprised individuals who were treatment responsive on one AHT medication with BP < 140/ 90 mmHg (n = 5,424). Logistic regression with kinship adjustment using the Scalable and Accurate Implementation of Generalized mixed models (SAIGE) was performed, adjusting for age, sex, and genetic ancestry. We assessed variants using SKAT-O in rare-variant analyses. Single-variant and gene-based tests were conducted in a pooled multi-ethnicity stratum, as well as self-reported ethnic/racial strata (European and African American). Results: One variant in the known HTN locus, KCNK3, was a top finding in the multi-ethnic analysis (p = 8.23E-07) for the normotensive control group [rs12476527, odds ratio (95% confidence interval) = 0.80 (0.74-0.88)]. This variant was replicated in the Vanderbilt University Medical Center's DNA repository data. Aggregate gene-based signals included the genes AGTPBP, MYL4, PDCD4, BBS9, ERG, and IER3. Discussion: Additional work validating these loci in larger, more diverse populations, is warranted to determine whether these regions influence the pathobiology of aTRH.

Type 2 Diabetes Modifies the Association of CAD Genomic Risk Variants With Subclinical Atherosclerosis

BACKGROUND

Individuals with type 2 diabetes (T2D) have an increased risk of coronary artery disease (CAD), but questions remain about the underlying pathology. Identifying which CAD loci are modified by T2D in the development of subclinical atherosclerosis (coronary artery calcification [CAC], carotid intima-media thickness, or carotid plaque) may improve our understanding of the mechanisms leading to the increased CAD in T2D.

METHODS

We compared the common and rare variant associations of known CAD loci from the literature on CAC, carotid intima-media thickness, and carotid plaque in up to 29 670 participants, including up to 24 157 normoglycemic controls and 5513 T2D cases leveraging whole-genome sequencing data from the Trans-Omics for Precision Medicine program. We included first-order T2D interaction terms in each model to determine whether CAD loci were modified by T2D. The genetic main and interaction effects were assessed using a joint test to determine whether a CAD variant, or gene-based rare variant set, was associated with the respective subclinical atherosclerosis measures and then further determined whether these loci had a significant interaction test.

RESULTS

Using a Bonferroni-corrected significance threshold of P<1.6×10-4, we identified 3 genes (ATP1B1, ARVCF, and LIPG) associated with CAC and 2 genes (ABCG8 and EIF2B2) associated with carotid intima-media thickness and carotid plaque, respectively, through gene-based rare variant set analysis. Both ATP1B1 and ARVCF also had significantly different associations for CAC in T2D cases versus controls. No significant interaction tests were identified through the candidate single-variant analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

These results highlight T2D as an important modifier of rare variant associations in CAD loci with CAC.

Serum NfL and GFAP are associated with incident dementia and dementia mortality in older adults: The cardiovascular health study

INTRODUCTION

Circulating neurofilament light chain (NfL) and glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP) have been independently associated with dementia risk. Their additive association, and their associations with dementia-specific mortality, have not been investigated.

METHODS

We associated serum NfL, GFAP, total tau ,and ubiquitin carboxyl-terminal hydrolase-L1, measured in 1712 dementia-free adults, with 19-year incident dementia and dementia-specific mortality risk, and with 3-year cognitive decline.

RESULTS

In adjusted models, being in the highest versus lowest tertile of NfL or GFAP associated with a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.49 (1.20-1.84) and 1.38 (1.15-1.66) for incident dementia, and 2.87 (1.79-4.61) and 2.76 (1.73-4.40) for dementia-specific mortality. Joint third versus first tertile exposure further increased risk; HR = 2.06 (1.60-2.67) and 9.22 (4.48-18.9). NfL was independently associated with accelerated cognitive decline.

DISCUSSION

Circulating NfL and GFAP may, independently and jointly, provide useful clinical insight regarding dementia risk and prognosis.

Association of Immune Cell Subsets with Incident Hip Fracture: The Cardiovascular Health Study

In this study, we aimed to evaluate the association of innate and adaptive immune cell subsets in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) with hip fracture. To conduct this study, we used data from the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS), a U.S. multicenter observational cohort of community-dwelling men and women aged ≥ 65 years. Twenty-five immune cell phenotypes were measured by flow cytometry from cryopreserved PBMCs of CHS participants collected in 1998-1999. The natural killer (NK), γδ T, T helper 17 (Th17), and differentiated/senescent CD4+CD28- T cell subsets were pre-specified as primary subsets of interest. Hip fracture incidence was assessed prospectively by review of hospitalization records. Multivariable Cox hazard models evaluated associations of immune cell phenotypes with incident hip fracture in sex-stratified and combined analyses. Among 1928 persons, 259 hip fractures occurred over a median 9.7 years of follow-up. In women, NK cells were inversely associated with hip fracture [hazard ratio (HR) 0.77, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.60-0.99 per one standard deviation higher value] and Th17 cells were positively associated with hip fracture [HR 1.18, 95% CI 1.01-1.39]. In men, γδ T cells were inversely associated with hip fracture [HR 0.60, 95% CI 0.37-0.98]. None of the measured immune cell phenotypes were significantly associated with hip fracture incidence in combined analyses. In this large prospective cohort of older adults, potentially important sex differences in the associations of immune cell phenotypes and hip fracture were identified. However, immune cell phenotypes had no association with hip fracture in analyses combining men and women.

Identification of circulating proteins associated with general cognitive function among middle-aged and older adults

Identifying circulating proteins associated with cognitive function may point to biomarkers and molecular process of cognitive impairment. Few studies have investigated the association between circulating proteins and cognitive function. We identify 246 protein measures quantified by the SomaScan assay as associated with cognitive function (p < 4.9E-5, n up to 7289). Of these, 45 were replicated using SomaScan data, and three were replicated using Olink data at Bonferroni-corrected significance. Enrichment analysis linked the proteins associated with general cognitive function to cell signaling pathways and synapse architecture. Mendelian randomization analysis implicated higher levels of NECTIN2, a protein mediating viral entry into neuronal cells, with higher Alzheimer's disease (AD) risk (p = 2.5E-26). Levels of 14 other protein measures were implicated as consequences of AD susceptibility (p < 2.0E-4). Proteins implicated as causes or consequences of AD susceptibility may provide new insight into the potential relationship between immunity and AD susceptibility as well as potential therapeutic targets.

Gene-educational attainment interactions in a multi-population genome-wide meta-analysis identify novel lipid loci

Introduction: Educational attainment, widely used in epidemiologic studies as a surrogate for socioeconomic status, is a predictor of cardiovascular health outcomes. Methods: A two-stage genome-wide meta-analysis of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL), and triglyceride (TG) levels was performed while accounting for gene-educational attainment interactions in up to 226,315 individuals from five population groups. We considered two educational attainment variables: "Some College" (yes/no, for any education beyond high school) and "Graduated College" (yes/no, for completing a 4-year college degree). Genome-wide significant (p < 5 × 10-8) and suggestive (p < 1 × 10-6) variants were identified in Stage 1 (in up to 108,784 individuals) through genome-wide analysis, and those variants were followed up in Stage 2 studies (in up to 117,531 individuals). Results: In combined analysis of Stages 1 and 2, we identified 18 novel lipid loci (nine for LDL, seven for HDL, and two for TG) by two degree-of-freedom (2 DF) joint tests of main and interaction effects. Four loci showed significant interaction with educational attainment. Two loci were significant only in cross-population analyses. Several loci include genes with known or suggested roles in adipose (FOXP1, MBOAT4, SKP2, STIM1, STX4), brain (BRI3, FILIP1, FOXP1, LINC00290, LMTK2, MBOAT4, MYO6, SENP6, SRGAP3, STIM1, TMEM167A, TMEM30A), and liver (BRI3, FOXP1) biology, highlighting the potential importance of brain-adipose-liver communication in the regulation of lipid metabolism. An investigation of the potential druggability of genes in identified loci resulted in five gene targets shown to interact with drugs approved by the Food and Drug Administration, including genes with roles in adipose and brain tissue. Discussion: Genome-wide interaction analysis of educational attainment identified novel lipid loci not previously detected by analyses limited to main genetic effects.

A proteomic analysis of atrial fibrillation in a prospective longitudinal cohort (AGES-Reykjavik study)

AIMS

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with high risk of comorbidities and mortality. Our aim was to examine causal and predictive relationships between 4137 serum proteins and incident AF in the prospective population-based Age, Gene/Environment Susceptibility-Reykjavik (AGES-Reykjavik) study.

METHODS AND RESULTS

The study included 4765 participants, of whom 1172 developed AF. Cox proportional hazards regression models were fitted for 4137 baseline protein measurements adjusting for known risk factors. Protein associations were tested for replication in the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS). Causal relationships were examined in a bidirectional, two-sample Mendelian randomization analysis. The time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC)-statistic was examined as protein levels and an AF-polygenic risk score (PRS) were added to clinical risk models. The proteomic signature of incident AF consisted of 76 proteins, of which 63 (83%) were novel and 29 (38%) were replicated in CHS. The signature included both N-terminal prohormone of brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP)-dependent (e.g. CHST15, ATP1B1, and SVEP1) and independent components (e.g. ASPN, AKR1B, and LAMA1/LAMB1/LAMC1). Nine causal candidates were identified (TAGLN, WARS, CHST15, CHMP3, COL15A1, DUSP13, MANBA, QSOX2, and SRL). The reverse causal analysis suggested that most AF-associated proteins were affected by the genetic liability to AF. N-terminal prohormone of brain natriuretic peptide improved the prediction of incident AF events close to baseline with further improvements gained by the AF-PRS at all time points.

CONCLUSION

The AF proteomic signature includes biologically relevant proteins, some of which may be causal. It mainly reflects an NT-proBNP-dependent consequence of the genetic liability to AF. N-terminal prohormone of brain natriuretic peptide is a promising marker for incident AF in the short term, but risk assessment incorporating a PRS may improve long-term risk assessment.

A statistical framework for powerful multi-trait rare variant analysis in large-scale whole-genome sequencing studies

Large-scale whole-genome sequencing (WGS) studies have improved our understanding of the contributions of coding and noncoding rare variants to complex human traits. Leveraging association effect sizes across multiple traits in WGS rare variant association analysis can improve statistical power over single-trait analysis, and also detect pleiotropic genes and regions. Existing multi-trait methods have limited ability to perform rare variant analysis of large-scale WGS data. We propose MultiSTAAR, a statistical framework and computationally-scalable analytical pipeline for functionally-informed multi-trait rare variant analysis in large-scale WGS studies. MultiSTAAR accounts for relatedness, population structure and correlation among phenotypes by jointly analyzing multiple traits, and further empowers rare variant association analysis by incorporating multiple functional annotations. We applied MultiSTAAR to jointly analyze three lipid traits (low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and triglycerides) in 61,861 multi-ethnic samples from the Trans-Omics for Precision Medicine (TOPMed) Program. We discovered new associations with lipid traits missed by single-trait analysis, including rare variants within an enhancer of NIPSNAP3A and an intergenic region on chromosome 1.

Clonal Hematopoiesis of Indeterminate Potential (CHIP) and Incident Type 2 Diabetes Risk

OBJECTIVE

Clonal hematopoiesis of indeterminate potential (CHIP) is an aging-related accumulation of somatic mutations in hematopoietic stem cells, leading to clonal expansion. CHIP presence has been implicated in atherosclerotic coronary heart disease (CHD) and all-cause mortality, but its association with incident type 2 diabetes (T2D) is unknown. We hypothesized that CHIP is associated with elevated risk of T2D.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

CHIP was derived from whole-genome sequencing of blood DNA in the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute Trans-Omics for Precision Medicine (TOPMed) prospective cohorts. We performed analysis for 17,637 participants from six cohorts, without prior T2D, cardiovascular disease, or cancer. We evaluated baseline CHIP versus no CHIP prevalence with incident T2D, including associations with DNMT3A, TET2, ASXL1, JAK2, and TP53 variants. We estimated multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs with adjustment for age, sex, BMI, smoking, alcohol, education, self-reported race/ethnicity, and combined cohorts' estimates via fixed-effects meta-analysis.

RESULTS

Mean (SD) age was 63.4 (11.5) years, 76% were female, and CHIP prevalence was 6.0% (n = 1,055) at baseline. T2D was diagnosed in n = 2,467 over mean follow-up of 9.8 years. Participants with CHIP had 23% (CI 1.04, 1.45) higher risk of T2D than those with no CHIP. Specifically, higher risk was for TET2 (HR 1.48; CI 1.05, 2.08) and ASXL1 (HR 1.76; CI 1.03, 2.99) mutations; DNMT3A was nonsignificant (HR 1.15; CI 0.93, 1.43). Statistical power was limited for JAK2 and TP53 analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

CHIP was associated with higher incidence of T2D. CHIP mutations located on genes implicated in CHD and mortality were also related to T2D, suggesting shared aging-related pathology.

Plasma Ceramides and Sphingomyelins and Sudden Cardiac Death in the Cardiovascular Health Study

Importance

Sphingolipids, including ceramides and sphingomyelins, may influence the pathophysiology and risk of sudden cardiac death (SCD) through multiple biological activities. Whether the length of the fatty acid acylated to plasma sphingolipid species is associated with SCD risk is not known.

Objective

To determine whether the saturated fatty acid length of plasma ceramides and sphingomyelins influences the association with SCD risk.

Design, Setting, and Participants

In this cohort study, multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to examine the association of sphingolipid species with SCD risk. The study population included 4612 participants in the Cardiovascular Health Study followed up prospectively for a median of 10.2 (IQR, 5.5-11.6) years. Baseline data were collected from January 1992 to December 1995 during annual examinations. Data were analyzed from February 11, 2020, to September 9, 2023.

Exposures

Eight plasma sphingolipid species (4 ceramides and 4 sphingomyelins) with saturated fatty acids of 16, 20, 22, and 24 carbons.

Main Outcome and Measure

Association of plasma ceramides and sphingomyelins with saturated fatty acids of different lengths with SCD risk.

Results

Among the 4612 CHS participants included in the analysis (mean [SD] age, 77 [5] years; 2724 [59.1%] women; 6 [0.1%] American Indian; 4 [0.1%] Asian; 718 [15.6%] Black; 3869 [83.9%] White, and 15 [0.3%] Other), 215 SCD cases were identified. In adjusted Cox proportional hazards regression analyses, plasma ceramides and sphingomyelins with palmitic acid (Cer-16 and SM-16) were associated with higher SCD risk per higher SD of log sphingolipid levels (hazard ratio [HR] for Cer-16, 1.34 [95% CI, 1.12-1.59]; HR for SM-16, 1.37 [95% CI, 1.12-1.67]). Associations did not differ by baseline age, sex, race, or body mass index. No significant association of SCD with sphingolipids with very-long-chain saturated fatty acids was observed after correction for multiple testing (HR for ceramide with arachidic acid, 1.06 [95% CI, 0.90-1.24]; HR for ceramide with behenic acid, 0.92 [95% CI, 0.77-1.10]; HR for ceramide with lignoceric acid, 0.92 [95% CI, 0.77-1.09]; HR for sphingomyelin with arachidic acid, 0.83 [95% CI, 0.71-0.98]; HR for sphingomyelin with behenic acid, 0.84 [95% CI, 0.70-1.00]; HR for sphingomyelin with lignoceric acid, 0.86 [95% CI, 0.72-1.03]).

Conclusions and Relevance

The findings of this large, population-based cohort study of SCD identified that higher plasma levels of Cer-16 and SM-16 were associated with higher risk of SCD. Future studies are needed to examine the underlying mechanism of these associations.

Late-life plasma proteins associated with prevalent and incident frailty: A proteomic analysis

Proteomic approaches have unique advantages in the identification of biological pathways that influence physical frailty, a multifactorial geriatric syndrome predictive of adverse health outcomes in older adults. To date, proteomic studies of frailty are scarce, and few evaluated prefrailty as a separate state or examined predictors of incident frailty. Using plasma proteins measured by 4955 SOMAmers in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Community study, we identified 134 and 179 proteins cross-sectionally associated with prefrailty and frailty, respectively, after Bonferroni correction (p < 1 × 10-5 ) among 3838 older adults aged ≥65 years, adjusting for demographic and physiologic factors and chronic diseases. Among them, 23 (17%) and 82 (46%) were replicated in the Cardiovascular Health Study using the same models (FDR p < 0.05). Notably, higher odds of prefrailty and frailty were observed with higher levels of growth differentiation factor 15 (GDF15; pprefrailty  = 1 × 10-15 , pfrailty  = 2 × 10-19 ), transgelin (TAGLN; pprefrailty  = 2 × 10-12 , pfrailty  = 6 × 10-22 ), and insulin-like growth factor-binding protein 2 (IGFBP2; pprefrailty  = 5 × 10-15 , pfrailty  = 1 × 10-15 ) and with a lower level of growth hormone receptor (GHR, pprefrailty  = 3 × 10-16 , pfrailty  = 2 × 10-18 ). Longitudinally, we identified 4 proteins associated with incident frailty (p < 1 × 10-5 ). Higher levels of triggering receptor expressed on myeloid cells 1 (TREM1), TAGLN, and heart and adipocyte fatty-acid binding proteins predicted incident frailty. Differentially regulated proteins were enriched in pathways and upstream regulators related to lipid metabolism, angiogenesis, inflammation, and cell senescence. Our findings provide a set of plasma proteins and biological mechanisms that were dysregulated in both the prodromal and the clinical stage of frailty, offering new insights into frailty etiology and targets for intervention.

Determinants of mosaic chromosomal alteration fitness

Clonal hematopoiesis (CH) is characterized by the acquisition of a somatic mutation in a hematopoietic stem cell that results in a clonal expansion. These driver mutations can be single nucleotide variants in cancer driver genes or larger structural rearrangements called mosaic chromosomal alterations (mCAs). The factors that influence the variations in mCA fitness and ultimately result in different clonal expansion rates are not well-understood. We used the Passenger-Approximated Clonal Expansion Rate (PACER) method to estimate clonal expansion rate for 6,381 individuals in the NHLBI TOPMed cohort with gain, loss, and copy-neutral loss of heterozygosity mCAs. Our estimates of mCA fitness were correlated (R 2 = 0.49) with an alternative approach that estimated fitness of mCAs in the UK Biobank using a theoretical probability distribution. Individuals with lymphoid-associated mCAs had a significantly higher white blood cell count and faster clonal expansion rate. In a cross-sectional analysis, genome-wide association study of estimates of mCA expansion rate identified TCL1A , NRIP1 , and TERT locus variants as modulators of mCA clonal expansion rate.

Association Between Whole Blood-Derived Mitochondrial DNA Copy Number, Low-Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol, and Cardiovascular Disease Risk

Background The relationship between mitochondrial DNA copy number (mtDNA CN) and cardiovascular disease remains elusive. Methods and Results We performed cross-sectional and prospective association analyses of blood-derived mtDNA CN and cardiovascular disease outcomes in 27 316 participants in 8 cohorts of multiple racial and ethnic groups with whole-genome sequencing. We also performed Mendelian randomization to explore causal relationships of mtDNA CN with coronary heart disease (CHD) and cardiometabolic risk factors (obesity, diabetes, hypertension, and hyperlipidemia). P<0.01 was used for significance. We validated most of the previously reported associations between mtDNA CN and cardiovascular disease outcomes. For example, 1-SD unit lower level of mtDNA CN was associated with 1.08 (95% CI, 1.04-1.12; P<0.001) times the hazard for developing incident CHD, adjusting for covariates. Mendelian randomization analyses showed no causal effect from a lower level of mtDNA CN to a higher CHD risk (β=0.091; P=0.11) or in the reverse direction (β=-0.012; P=0.076). Additional bidirectional Mendelian randomization analyses revealed that low-density lipoprotein cholesterol had a causal effect on mtDNA CN (β=-0.084; P<0.001), but the reverse direction was not significant (P=0.059). No causal associations were observed between mtDNA CN and obesity, diabetes, and hypertension, in either direction. Multivariable Mendelian randomization analyses showed no causal effect of CHD on mtDNA CN, controlling for low-density lipoprotein cholesterol level (P=0.52), whereas there was a strong direct causal effect of higher low-density lipoprotein cholesterol on lower mtDNA CN, adjusting for CHD status (β=-0.092; P<0.001). Conclusions Our findings indicate that high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol may underlie the complex relationships between mtDNA CN and vascular atherosclerosis.

Rare variants in long non-coding RNAs are associated with blood lipid levels in the TOPMed whole-genome sequencing study

Long non-coding RNAs (lncRNAs) are known to perform important regulatory functions in lipid metabolism. Large-scale whole-genome sequencing (WGS) studies and new statistical methods for variant set tests now provide an opportunity to assess more associations between rare variants in lncRNA genes and complex traits across the genome. In this study, we used high-coverage WGS from 66,329 participants of diverse ancestries with measurement of blood lipids and lipoproteins (LDL-C, HDL-C, TC, and TG) in the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI) Trans-Omics for Precision Medicine (TOPMed) program to investigate the role of lncRNAs in lipid variability. We aggregated rare variants for 165,375 lncRNA genes based on their genomic locations and conducted rare-variant aggregate association tests using the STAAR (variant-set test for association using annotation information) framework. We performed STAAR conditional analysis adjusting for common variants in known lipid GWAS loci and rare-coding variants in nearby protein-coding genes. Our analyses revealed 83 rare lncRNA variant sets significantly associated with blood lipid levels, all of which were located in known lipid GWAS loci (in a ±500-kb window of a Global Lipids Genetics Consortium index variant). Notably, 61 out of 83 signals (73%) were conditionally independent of common regulatory variation and rare protein-coding variation at the same loci. We replicated 34 out of 61 (56%) conditionally independent associations using the independent UK Biobank WGS data. Our results expand the genetic architecture of blood lipids to rare variants in lncRNAs.

Life expectancy associated with different ages at diagnosis of type 2 diabetes in high-income countries: 23 million person-years of observation

BACKGROUND

The prevalence of type 2 diabetes is increasing rapidly, particularly among younger age groups. Estimates suggest that people with diabetes die, on average, 6 years earlier than people without diabetes. We aimed to provide reliable estimates of the associations between age at diagnosis of diabetes and all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and reductions in life expectancy.

METHODS

For this observational study, we conducted a combined analysis of individual-participant data from 19 high-income countries using two large-scale data sources: the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration (96 cohorts, median baseline years 1961-2007, median latest follow-up years 1980-2013) and the UK Biobank (median baseline year 2006, median latest follow-up year 2020). We calculated age-adjusted and sex-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for all-cause mortality according to age at diagnosis of diabetes using data from 1 515 718 participants, in whom deaths were recorded during 23·1 million person-years of follow-up. We estimated cumulative survival by applying age-specific HRs to age-specific death rates from 2015 for the USA and the EU.

FINDINGS

For participants with diabetes, we observed a linear dose-response association between earlier age at diagnosis and higher risk of all-cause mortality compared with participants without diabetes. HRs were 2·69 (95% CI 2·43-2·97) when diagnosed at 30-39 years, 2·26 (2·08-2·45) at 40-49 years, 1·84 (1·72-1·97) at 50-59 years, 1·57 (1·47-1·67) at 60-69 years, and 1·39 (1·29-1·51) at 70 years and older. HRs per decade of earlier diagnosis were similar for men and women. Using death rates from the USA, a 50-year-old individual with diabetes died on average 14 years earlier when diagnosed aged 30 years, 10 years earlier when diagnosed aged 40 years, or 6 years earlier when diagnosed aged 50 years than an individual without diabetes. Using EU death rates, the corresponding estimates were 13, 9, or 5 years earlier.

INTERPRETATION

Every decade of earlier diagnosis of diabetes was associated with about 3-4 years of lower life expectancy, highlighting the need to develop and implement interventions that prevent or delay the onset of diabetes and to intensify the treatment of risk factors among young adults diagnosed with diabetes.

FUNDING

British Heart Foundation, Medical Research Council, National Institute for Health and Care Research, and Health Data Research UK.

Multi-ancestry genome-wide study identifies effector genes and druggable pathways for coronary artery calcification

Coronary artery calcification (CAC), a measure of subclinical atherosclerosis, predicts future symptomatic coronary artery disease (CAD). Identifying genetic risk factors for CAC may point to new therapeutic avenues for prevention. Currently, there are only four known risk loci for CAC identified from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) in the general population. Here we conducted the largest multi-ancestry GWAS meta-analysis of CAC to date, which comprised 26,909 individuals of European ancestry and 8,867 individuals of African ancestry. We identified 11 independent risk loci, of which eight were new for CAC and five had not been reported for CAD. These new CAC loci are related to bone mineralization, phosphate catabolism and hormone metabolic pathways. Several new loci harbor candidate causal genes supported by multiple lines of functional evidence and are regulators of smooth muscle cell-mediated calcification ex vivo and in vitro. Together, these findings help refine the genetic architecture of CAC and extend our understanding of the biological and potential druggable pathways underlying CAC.

Whole Genome Sequencing Based Analysis of Inflammation Biomarkers in the Trans-Omics for Precision Medicine (TOPMed) Consortium

Inflammation biomarkers can provide valuable insight into the role of inflammatory processes in many diseases and conditions. Sequencing based analyses of such biomarkers can also serve as an exemplar of the genetic architecture of quantitative traits. To evaluate the biological insight, which can be provided by a multi-ancestry, whole-genome based association study, we performed a comprehensive analysis of 21 inflammation biomarkers from up to 38,465 individuals with whole-genome sequencing from the Trans-Omics for Precision Medicine (TOPMed) program. We identified 22 distinct single-variant associations across 6 traits - E-selectin, intercellular adhesion molecule 1, interleukin-6, lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 activity and mass, and P-selectin - that remained significant after conditioning on previously identified associations for these inflammatory biomarkers. We further expanded upon known biomarker associations by pairing the single-variant analysis with a rare variant set-based analysis that further identified 19 significant rare variant set-based associations with 5 traits. These signals were distinct from both significant single variant association signals within TOPMed and genetic signals observed in prior studies, demonstrating the complementary value of performing both single and rare variant analyses when analyzing quantitative traits. We also confirm several previously reported signals from semi-quantitative proteomics platforms. Many of these signals demonstrate the extensive allelic heterogeneity and ancestry-differentiated variant-trait associations common for inflammation biomarkers, a characteristic we hypothesize will be increasingly observed with well-powered, large-scale analyses of complex traits.

WHOLE GENOME SEQUENCING ANALYSIS OF BODY MASS INDEX IDENTIFIES NOVEL AFRICAN ANCESTRY-SPECIFIC RISK ALLELE

Obesity is a major public health crisis associated with high mortality rates. Previous genome-wide association studies (GWAS) investigating body mass index (BMI) have largely relied on imputed data from European individuals. This study leveraged whole-genome sequencing (WGS) data from 88,873 participants from the Trans-Omics for Precision Medicine (TOPMed) Program, of which 51% were of non-European population groups. We discovered 18 BMI-associated signals (P < 5 × 10-9). Notably, we identified and replicated a novel low frequency single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) in MTMR3 that was common in individuals of African descent. Using a diverse study population, we further identified two novel secondary signals in known BMI loci and pinpointed two likely causal variants in the POC5 and DMD loci. Our work demonstrates the benefits of combining WGS and diverse cohorts in expanding current catalog of variants and genes confer risk for obesity, bringing us one step closer to personalized medicine.

Carriers of rare damaging CCR2 genetic variants are at lower risk of atherosclerotic disease

Background

The CCL2/CCR2 axis governs monocyte trafficking and recruitment to atherosclerotic lesions. Human genetic analyses and population-based studies support an association between circulating CCL2 levels and atherosclerosis. Still, it remains unknown whether pharmacological targeting of CCR2, the main CCL2 receptor, would provide protection against human atherosclerotic disease.

Methods

In whole-exome sequencing data from 454,775 UK Biobank participants (40-69 years), we identified predicted loss-of-function (LoF) or damaging missense (REVEL score >0.5) variants within the CCR2 gene. We prioritized variants associated with lower monocyte count (p<0.05) and tested associations with vascular risk factors and risk of atherosclerotic disease over a mean follow-up of 14 years. The results were replicated in a pooled cohort of three independent datasets (TOPMed, deCODE and Penn Medicine BioBank; total n=441,445) and the effect of the most frequent damaging variant was experimentally validated.

Results

A total of 45 predicted LoF or damaging missense variants were identified in the CCR2 gene, 4 of which were also significantly associated with lower monocyte count, but not with other white blood cell counts. Heterozygous carriers of these variants were at a lower risk of a combined atherosclerosis outcome, showed a lower burden of atherosclerosis across four vascular beds, and were at a lower lifetime risk of coronary artery disease and myocardial infarction. There was no evidence of association with vascular risk factors including LDL-cholesterol, blood pressure, glycemic status, or C-reactive protein. Using a cAMP assay, we found that cells transfected with the most frequent CCR2 damaging variant (3:46358273:T:A, M249K, 547 carriers, frequency: 0.14%) show a decrease in signaling in response to CCL2. The associations of the M249K variant with myocardial infarction were consistent across cohorts (ORUKB: 0.62 95%CI: 0.39-0.96; ORexternal: 0.64 95%CI: 0.34-1.19; ORpooled: 0.64 95%CI: 0.450.90). In a phenome-wide association study, we found no evidence for higher risk of common infections or mortality among carriers of damaging CCR2 variants.

Conclusions

Heterozygous carriers of damaging CCR2 variants have a lower burden of atherosclerosis and lower lifetime risk of myocardial infarction. In conjunction with previous evidence from experimental and epidemiological studies, our findings highlight the translational potential of CCR2-targeting as an atheroprotective approach.

Plasma Trimethylamine-N-Oxide and Incident Ischemic Stroke: The Cardiovascular Health Study and the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

Background The association of circulating trimethylamine-N-oxide (TMAO) with stroke has received limited attention. To address this gap, we examined the associations of serial measures of plasma TMAO with incident ischemic stroke. Methods and Results We used a prospective cohort design with data pooled from 2 cohorts. The settings were the CHS (Cardiovascular Health Study), a cohort of older adults, and the MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis), both in the United States. We measured plasma concentrations of TMAO at baseline and again during the follow-up using high-performance liquid chromatography and mass spectrometry. We assessed the association of plasma TMAO with incident ischemic stroke using proportional hazards regression adjusted for risk factors. The combined cohorts included 11 785 participants without a history of stroke, on average 73 (CHS) and 62 (MESA) years old at baseline, including 60% (CHS) and 53% (MESA) women. We identified 1031 total incident ischemic strokes during a median 15-year follow-up in the combined cohorts. In multivariable analyses, TMAO was significantly associated with incident ischemic stroke risk (hazard ratios comparing a doubling of TMAO: 1.11 [1.03-1.18], P=0.004). The association was linear over the range of TMAO concentrations and appeared restricted to those without diagnosed coronary heart disease. An association with hemorrhagic stroke was not found. Conclusions Plasma TMAO levels are associated with incident ischemic stroke in a diverse population. Registration URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00005133.

Complexities of cerebral small vessel disease, blood pressure, and dementia relationship: new insights from genetics

Importance

There is increasing recognition that vascular disease, which can be treated, is a key contributor to dementia risk. However, the contribution of specific markers of vascular disease is unclear and, as a consequence, optimal prevention strategies remain unclear.

Objective

To disentangle the causal relation of several key vascular traits to dementia risk: (i) white matter hyperintensity (WMH) burden, a highly prevalent imaging marker of covert cerebral small vessel disease (cSVD); (ii) clinical stroke; and (iii) blood pressure (BP), the leading risk factor for cSVD and stroke, for which efficient therapies exist. To account for potential epidemiological biases inherent to late-onset conditions like dementia.

Design Setting and Participants

This study first explored the association of genetically determined WMH, BP levels and stroke risk with AD using summary-level data from large genome-wide association studies (GWASs) in a two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) framework. Second, leveraging individual-level data from large longitudinal population-based cohorts and biobanks with prospective dementia surveillance, the association of weighted genetic risk scores (wGRSs) for WMH, BP, and stroke with incident all-cause-dementia was explored using Cox-proportional hazard and multi-state models. The data analysis was performed from July 26, 2020, through July 24, 2022.

Exposures

Genetically determined levels of WMH volume and BP (systolic, diastolic and pulse blood pressures) and genetic liability to stroke.

Main outcomes and measures

The summary-level MR analyses focused on the outcomes from GWAS of clinically diagnosed AD (n-cases=21,982) and GWAS additionally including self-reported parental history of dementia as a proxy for AD diagnosis (ADmeta, n-cases=53,042). For the longitudinal analyses, individual-level data of 157,698 participants with 10,699 incident all-cause-dementia were studied, exploring AD, vascular or mixed dementia in secondary analyses.

Results

In the two-sample MR analyses, WMH showed strong evidence for a causal association with increased risk of ADmeta (OR, 1.16; 95%CI:1.05-1.28; P=.003) and AD (OR, 1.28; 95%CI:1.07-1.53; P=.008), after accounting for genetically determined pulse pressure for the latter. Genetically predicted BP traits showed evidence for a protective association with both clinically defined AD and ADmeta, with evidence for confounding by shared genetic instruments. In longitudinal analyses the wGRSs for WMH, but not BP or stroke, showed suggestive association with incident all-cause-dementia (HR, 1.02; 95%CI:1.00-1.04; P=.06). BP and stroke wGRSs were strongly associated with mortality but there was no evidence for selective survival bias during follow-up. In secondary analyses, polygenic scores with more liberal instrument definition showed association of both WMH and stroke with all-cause-dementia, AD, and vascular or mixed dementia; associations of stroke, but not WMH, with dementia outcomes were markedly attenuated after adjusting for interim stroke.

Conclusion

These findings provide converging evidence that WMH is a leading vascular contributor to dementia risk, which may better capture the brain damage caused by BP (and other etiologies) than BP itself and should be targeted in priority for dementia prevention in the population.

Genetic insights into resting heart rate and its role in cardiovascular disease

Resting heart rate is associated with cardiovascular diseases and mortality in observational and Mendelian randomization studies. The aims of this study are to extend the number of resting heart rate associated genetic variants and to obtain further insights in resting heart rate biology and its clinical consequences. A genome-wide meta-analysis of 100 studies in up to 835,465 individuals reveals 493 independent genetic variants in 352 loci, including 68 genetic variants outside previously identified resting heart rate associated loci. We prioritize 670 genes and in silico annotations point to their enrichment in cardiomyocytes and provide insights in their ECG signature. Two-sample Mendelian randomization analyses indicate that higher genetically predicted resting heart rate increases risk of dilated cardiomyopathy, but decreases risk of developing atrial fibrillation, ischemic stroke, and cardio-embolic stroke. We do not find evidence for a linear or non-linear genetic association between resting heart rate and all-cause mortality in contrast to our previous Mendelian randomization study. Systematic alteration of key differences between the current and previous Mendelian randomization study indicates that the most likely cause of the discrepancy between these studies arises from false positive findings in previous one-sample MR analyses caused by weak-instrument bias at lower P-value thresholds. The results extend our understanding of resting heart rate biology and give additional insights in its role in cardiovascular disease development.

Prediction of Multiple Individual Primary Cardiovascular Events Using Pooled Cohorts

Introduction

Most current clinical risk prediction scores for cardiovascular disease prevention use a composite outcome. Risk prediction scores for specific cardiovascular events could identify people who are at higher risk for some events than others informing personalized care and trial recruitment. We sought to predict risk for multiple different events, describe how those risks differ, and examine if these differences could improve treatment priorities.

Methods

We used participant-level data from five cohort studies. We included participants between 40 and 79 years old who had no history of myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, or heart failure (HF). We made separate models to predict 10-year rates of first atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), first fatal or nonfatal MI, first fatal or nonfatal stroke, new-onset HF, fatal ASCVD, fatal MI, fatal stroke, and all-cause mortality using established ASCVD risk factors. To limit overfitting, we used elastic net regularization with alpha = 0.75. We assessed the models for calibration, discrimination, and for correlations between predicted risks for different events. We also estimated the potential impact of varying treatment based on patients who are high risk for some ASCVD events, but not others.

Results

Our study included 24,505 people; 55.6% were women, and 20.7% were non-Hispanic Black. Our models had C-statistics between 0.75 for MI and 0.85 for HF, good calibration, and minimal overfitting. The models were least similar for fatal stroke and all MI (0.58). In 1,840 participants whose risk of MI but not stroke or all-cause mortality was in the top quartile, we estimate one blood pressure-lowering medication would have a 2.4% chance of preventing any ASCVD event per 10 years. A moderate-strength statin would have a 2.1% chance. In 1,039 participants who had top quartile risk of stroke but not MI or mortality, a blood pressure-lowering medication would have a 2.5% chance of preventing an event, but a moderate-strength statin, 1.6%.

Conclusion

We developed risk scores for eight key clinical events and found that cardiovascular risk varies somewhat for different clinical events. Future work could determine if tailoring decisions by risk of separate events can improve care.

The association of myocardial infarction with cancer incidence

In this commentary, the authors discuss the potential mechanisms for the finding of an association between myocardial infarction and cancer incidence.

Time-to-Event Genome-Wide Association Study for Incident Cardiovascular Disease in People with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus

BACKGROUND

Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D) confers a two- to three-fold increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, the mechanisms underlying increased CVD risk among people with T2D are only partially understood. We hypothesized that a genetic association study among people with T2D at risk for developing incident cardiovascular complications could provide insights into molecular genetic aspects underlying CVD.

METHODS

From 16 studies of the Cohorts for Heart & Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology (CHARGE) Consortium, we conducted a multi-ancestry time-to-event genome-wide association study (GWAS) for incident CVD among people with T2D using Cox proportional hazards models. Incident CVD was defined based on a composite of coronary artery disease (CAD), stroke, and cardiovascular death that occurred at least one year after the diagnosis of T2D. Cohort-level estimated effect sizes were combined using inverse variance weighted fixed effects meta-analysis. We also tested 204 known CAD variants for association with incident CVD among patients with T2D.

RESULTS

A total of 49,230 participants with T2D were included in the analyses (31,118 European ancestries and 18,112 non-European ancestries) which consisted of 8,956 incident CVD cases over a range of mean follow-up duration between 3.2 and 33.7 years (event rate 18.2%). We identified three novel, distinct genetic loci for incident CVD among individuals with T2D that reached the threshold for genome-wide significance (P<5.0×10-8): rs147138607 (intergenic variant between CACNA1E and ZNF648) with a hazard ratio (HR) 1.23, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.15 - 1.32, P=3.6×10-9, rs11444867 (intergenic variant near HS3ST1) with HR 1.89, 95% CI 1.52 - 2.35, P=9.9×10-9, and rs335407 (intergenic variant between TFB1M and NOX3) HR 1.25, 95% CI 1.16 - 1.35, P=1.5×10-8. Among 204 known CAD loci, 32 were associated with incident CVD in people with T2D with P<0.05, and 5 were significant after Bonferroni correction (P<0.00024, 0.05/204). A polygenic score of these 204 variants was significantly associated with incident CVD with HR 1.14 (95% CI 1.12 - 1.16) per 1 standard deviation increase (P=1.0×10-16).

CONCLUSIONS

The data point to novel and known genomic regions associated with incident CVD among individuals with T2D.