A polygenic risk score of atrial fibrillation improves prediction of lifetime risk for heart failure

AIMS

Heart failure (HF) has shared genetic architecture with its risk factors: atrial fibrillation (AF), body mass index (BMI), coronary heart disease (CHD), systolic blood pressure (SBP), and type 2 diabetes (T2D). We aim to assess the association and risk prediction performance of risk-factor polygenic risk scores (PRSs) for incident HF and its subtypes in bi-racial populations.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Five PRSs were constructed for AF, BMI, CHD, SBP, and T2D in White participants of the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study. The associations between PRSs and incident HF and its subtypes were assessed using Cox models, and the risk prediction performance of PRSs was assessed using C statistics. Replication was performed in the ARIC study Black and Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS) White participants. In 8624 ARIC study Whites, 1922 (31% cumulative incidence) HF cases developed over 30 years of follow-up. PRSs of AF, BMI, and CHD were associated with incident HF (P < 0.001), where PRSAF showed the strongest association [hazard ratio (HR): 1.47, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.41-1.53]. Only the addition of PRSAF to the ARIC study HF risk equation improved C statistics for 10 year risk prediction from 0.812 to 0.829 (∆C: 0.017, 95% CI: 0.009-0.026). The PRSAF was associated with both incident HF with reduced ejection fraction (HR: 1.43, 95% CI: 1.27-1.60) and incident HF with preserved ejection fraction (HR: 1.46, 95% CI: 1.33-1.62). The associations between PRSAF and incident HF and its subtypes, as well as the improved risk prediction, were replicated in the ARIC study Blacks and the CHS Whites (P < 0.050). Protein analyses revealed that N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide and other 98 proteins were associated with PRSAF.

CONCLUSIONS

The PRSAF was associated with incident HF and its subtypes and had significant incremental value over an established HF risk prediction equation.

Association of diabetes and glycemic control with left atrial function: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Although glycemic status is associated with impaired cardiac structure and function, less is known on left atrial (LA) function across the glycemic spectrum. We evaluated the association of diabetes and glycemic control with LA function in a community-based cohort of older adults.

METHODS AND RESULTS

This cross-sectional analysis included 5075 participants from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study (mean age 75.5 years, 58 % women, and 20 % Black adults) with echocardiographic strain data for LA reservoir, conduit, and contractile function. Multivariable linear regression was used to assess associations of diabetes status and glycemic control with LA function. In participants without diabetes, we used ordinal linear regression to evaluate associations of fasting glucose and HbA1c with LA function. Compared to individuals with a normal fasting glucose, prevalent diabetes was associated with 0.68 % lower LA conduit function (95 % confidence interval (CI): 1.11 to -0.25) and prediabetes a 0.47 % reduction (95 % CI: 0.85 to -0.09) in fully adjusted analyses. Persons with diabetes and high HbA1c (HgbA1c ≥ 7 % vs <7 %) had 1.05 % lower LA conduit function (95 % CI: 1.63, -0.48). Among individuals without diagnosed diabetes, higher fasting glucose, but not HbA1c, was significantly associated with worse LA conduit function. No significant associations were observed for LA reservoir and contractile function.

CONCLUSIONS

A history of diabetes, prediabetes, and higher fasting glucose levels in persons without diabetes were associated with worse LA conduit function. Corroborative research is needed in prospective cohorts as well as studies that explore underlying mechanisms.

Plasma Ferritin Levels, Incident Heart Failure, and Cardiac Structure and Function: The ARIC Study

BACKGROUND

Whether iron deficiency contributes to incident heart failure (HF) and cardiac dysfunction has important implications given the prevalence of iron deficiency and the availability of several therapeutics for iron repletion.

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to estimate the associations of plasma ferritin level with incident HF overall, HF phenotypes, and cardiac structure and function measures in older adults.

METHODS

Participants in the ongoing, longitudinal ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk In Communities) study who were free of prevalent HF and anemia were studied. The associations of plasma ferritin levels with incident HF overall and heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) and heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) were estimated using Cox proportional hazards regression models. Linear regression models estimated the cross-sectional associations of plasma ferritin with echocardiographic measures of cardiac structure and function.

RESULTS

The cohort included 3,472 individuals with a mean age of 75 ± 5 years (56% women, 14% Black individuals). In fully adjusted models, lower ferritin was associated with higher risk for incident HF overall (HR: 1.20 [95% CI: 1.08-1.34] per 50% lower ferritin level) and higher risk for incident HFpEF (HR: 1.28 [95% CI: 1.09-1.50]). Associations with incident HFrEF were not statistically significant. Lower ferritin levels were associated with higher E/e' ratio and higher pulmonary artery systolic pressure after adjustment for demographics and HF risk factors but not with measures of left ventricular structure or systolic function.

CONCLUSIONS

Among older adults without prevalent HF or anemia, lower plasma ferritin level is associated with a higher risk for incident HF, HFpEF, and higher measures of left ventricular filling pressure.

Metabolomic Association and Risk Prediction With Heart Failure in Older Adults

BACKGROUND

Older adults have markedly increased risks of heart failure (HF), specifically HF with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF). Identifying novel biomarkers can help in understanding HF pathogenesis and improve at-risk population identification. This study aimed to identify metabolites associated with incident HF, HFpEF, and HF with reduced ejection fraction and examine risk prediction in older adults.

METHODS

Untargeted metabolomic profiling was performed in Black and White adults from the ARIC study (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities) visit 5 (n=3719; mean age, 75 years). We applied Cox regressions to identify metabolites associated with incident HF and its subtypes. The metabolite risk score (MRS) was constructed and examined for associations with HF, echocardiographic measures, and HF risk prediction. Independent samples from visit 3 (n=1929; mean age, 58 years) were used for replication.

RESULTS

Sixty metabolites (hazard ratios range, 0.79-1.49; false discovery rate, <0.05) were associated with incident HF after adjusting for clinical risk factors, eGFR, and NT-proBNP (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide). Mannonate, a hydroxy acid, was replicated (hazard ratio, 1.36 [95% CI, 1.19-1.56]) with full adjustments. MRS was associated with an 80% increased risk of HF per SD increment, and the highest MRS quartile had 8.7× the risk of developing HFpEF than the lowest quartile. High MRS was also associated with unfavorable values of cardiac structure and function. Adding MRS over clinical risk factors and NT-proBNP improved 5-year HF risk prediction C statistics from 0.817 to 0.850 (∆C, 0.033 [95% CI, 0.017-0.047]). The association between MRS and incident HF was replicated after accounting for clinical risk factors (P<0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Novel metabolites associated with HF risk were identified, elucidating disease pathways, specifically HFpEF. An MRS was associated with HF risk and improved 5-year risk prediction in older adults, which may assist at at-risk population identification.

Clinical implications of subclinical left ventricular dysfunction in heart failure with preserved ejection fraction: The PARAGON-HF study

AIMS

Left ventricular (LV) subclinical impairment has been described in heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF). We assessed the relationship between LV myocardial deformation by strain imaging and recurrent hospitalization for heart failure (HF) or cardiovascular death in a large international HFpEF population.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We assessed two-dimensional speckle-tracking based global longitudinal strain (GLS) in 790 patients (mean age 74 ± 8 years, 54% female) with adequate image quality enrolled in the PARAGON-HF echocardiography study. We examined the relationship of GLS with total HF hospitalizations and cardiovascular death (the primary composite outcome) after accounting for clinical confounders. Approximately 47% of the population had evidence of LV subclinical dysfunction, defined as absolute GLS <16%. Impaired GLS was significantly associated with higher values of circulating baseline N-terminal pro-B-type-natriuretic peptide. After a median follow-up of 3.0 years, there were 407 total HF hospitalizations and cardiovascular deaths. After multivariable adjustment, worse GLS was associated with a greater risk for the primary composite outcome (adjusted hazard ratio per 1% decrease: 1.06; 95% confidence interval 1.02-1.11; p = 0.008). GLS did not modify the treatment effect of sacubitril/valsartan compared with valsartan for the composite outcome (p for interaction >0.1).

CONCLUSIONS

In a large HFpEF population, impaired LV function was observed even among patients with preserved ejection fraction, and was associated with an increased risk of total HF hospitalizations or cardiovascular death, accounting for clinical confounders. These findings highlight the key role of subtle LV systolic impairment in the pathophysiology of HFpEF.

Large-Scale Proteomics Identifies Novel Biomarkers and Circulating Risk Factors for Aortic Stenosis

BACKGROUND

Limited data exist regarding risk factors for aortic stenosis (AS). The plasma proteome is a promising phenotype for discovery of novel biomarkers and potentially causative mechanisms.

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to discover novel biomarkers with potentially causal associations with AS.

METHODS

We measured 4,877 plasma proteins (SomaScan aptamer-affinity assay) among ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk In Communities) study participants in mid-life (visit 3 [V3]; n = 11,430; age 60 ± 6 years) and in late-life (V5; n = 4,899; age 76 ± 5 years). We identified proteins cross-sectionally associated with aortic valve (AV) peak velocity (AVmax) and dimensionless index by echocardiography at V5 and with incident AV-related hospitalization after V3 with the use of multivariable linear and Cox proportional hazard regression. We assessed associations of candidate proteins with changes in AVmax over 6 years and with AV calcification with the use of cardiac computed tomography, replicated analysis in an independent sample, performed Mendelian randomization, and evaluated gene expression in explanted human AV tissue.

RESULTS

Fifty-two proteins cross-sectionally were associated with AVmax and dimensionless index at V5 and with risk of incident AV-related hospitalization after V3. Among 3,413 participants in the Cardiovascular Health Study, 6 of those proteins were significantly associated with adjudicated moderate or severe AS, including matrix metalloproteinase 12 (MMP12), complement C1q tumor necrosis factor-related protein 1 (C1QTNF1), and growth differentiation factor-15. MMP12 was also associated with greater increase in AVmax over 6 years, greater degree of AV calcification, and greater expression in calcific compared with normal or fibrotic AV tissue. C1QTNF1 had consistent potential causal effects on both AS and AVmax according to Mendelian randomization analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings identify MMP12 as a potential novel circulating biomarker of AS risk and C1QTNF1 as a new putative target to prevent AS progression.

Identification of Fatigue Subtypes and Their Correlates in Prevalent Heart Failure: A Secondary Analysis of the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study

BACKGROUND

Among patients with heart failure (HF), fatigue is common and linked to quality of life and functional status. Fatigue is hypothesized to manifest as multiple types, with general and exertional components. Unique subtypes of fatigue in HF may require differential assessment and treatment to improve outcomes. We conducted this study to identify fatigue subtypes in persons with prevalent HF in the ARIC study (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities) and describe the distribution of characteristics across subtypes.

METHODS

We performed a cross-sectional analysis of 1065 participants with prevalent HF at ARIC visit 5 (2011-2013). We measured exertional fatigue using the Modified Medical Research Council Breathlessness scale and general fatigue using the Patient Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System fatigue scale. We used latent class analysis to identify subtypes of fatigue. Number of classes was determined using model fit statistics, and classes were interpreted and assigned fatigue severity rating based on the conditional probability of endorsing survey items given class. We compared characteristics across classes using multinomial regression.

RESULTS

Overall, participants were 54% female and 38% Black with a mean age of 77. We identified 4 latent classes (fatigue subtypes): (1) high general/high exertional fatigue (18%), (2) high general/low exertional fatigue (27%), (3) moderate general/moderate exertional fatigue (20%), and (4) low/no general and exertional fatigue (35%). Female sex, Black race, lower education level, higher body mass index, increased depressive symptoms, and higher prevalence of diabetes were associated with higher levels of general and exertional fatigue.

CONCLUSIONS

We identified unique subtypes of fatigue in patients with HF who have not been previously described. Within subtype, general and exertional fatigue were mostly concordant in severity, and exertional fatigue only occurred in conjunction with general fatigue, not alone. Further understanding these fatigue types and their relationships to outcomes may enhance our understanding of the symptom experience and inform prognostication and secondary prevention efforts for persons with HF.

Large scale plasma proteomics identifies novel proteins and protein networks associated with heart failure development

Heart failure (HF) causes substantial morbidity and mortality but its pathobiology is incompletely understood. The proteome is a promising intermediate phenotype for discovery of novel mechanisms. We measured 4877 plasma proteins in 13,900 HF-free individuals across three analysis sets with diverse age, geography, and HF ascertainment to identify circulating proteins and protein networks associated with HF development. Parallel analyses in Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study participants in mid-life and late-life and in Trøndelag Health Study participants identified 37 proteins consistently associated with incident HF independent of traditional risk factors. Mendelian randomization supported causal effects of 10 on HF, HF risk factors, or left ventricular size and function, including matricellular (e.g. SPON1, MFAP4), senescence-associated (FSTL3, IGFBP7), and inflammatory (SVEP1, CCL15, ITIH3) proteins. Protein co-regulation network analyses identified 5 modules associated with HF risk, two of which were influenced by genetic variants that implicated trans hotspots within the VTN and CFH genes.

Clonal Hematopoiesis and Incident Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction

Importance

Clonal hematopoiesis of indeterminate potential (CHIP), the age-related clonal expansion of hematopoietic stem cells with leukemogenic acquired genetic variants, is associated with incident heart failure (HF).

Objective

To evaluate the associations of CHIP and key gene-specific CHIP subtypes with incident HF with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) and reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF).

Design, Setting, and Participants

This population-based cohort study included participants from 2 racially diverse prospective cohort studies with uniform HF subtype adjudication: the Jackson Heart Study (JHS) and Women's Health Initiative (WHI). JHS participants were enrolled during 2000 to 2004 and followed up through 2016. WHI participants were enrolled during 1993 to 1998 and followed up through 2022. Participants who underwent whole-genome sequencing, lacked prevalent HF at baseline, and were followed up for HF adjudication were included. Follow-up occurred over a median (IQR) of 12.0 (11.0-12.0) years in the JHS and 15.3 (9.0-22.0) years in the WHI. Statistical analysis was performed from June to December 2023.

Exposures

Any CHIP and the most common gene-specific CHIP subtypes (DNMT3A and TET2 CHIP).

Main Outcomes and Measures

First incident hospitalized HF events were adjudicated from hospital records and classified as HFpEF (left ventricular ejection fraction ≥50%) or HFrEF (ejection fraction <50%).

Results

A total of 8090 participants were included; 2927 from the JHS (median [IQR] age, 56 [46-65] years; 1846 [63.1%] female; 2927 [100.0%] Black or African American) and 5163 from the WHI (median [IQR] age, 67 [62-72] years; 5163 [100.0%] female; 29 [0.6%] American Indian or Alaska Native, 37 [0.7%] Asian or Pacific Islander, 1383 [26.8%] Black or African American, 293 [5.7%] Hispanic or Latinx, 3407 [66.0%] non-Hispanic White, and 14 [0.3%] with other race and ethnicity). The multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for composite CHIP and HFpEF was 1.28 (95% CI, 0.93-1.76; P = .13), and for CHIP and HFrEF it was 0.79 (95% CI, 0.49-1.25; P = .31). TET2 CHIP was associated with HFpEF in both cohorts (meta-analyzed HR, 2.35 [95% CI, 1.34 to 4.11]; P = .003) independent of cardiovascular risk factors and coronary artery disease. Analyses stratified by C-reactive protein (CRP) in the WHI found an increased risk of incident HFpEF in individuals with CHIP and CRP greater than or equal to 2 mg/L (HR, 1.94 [95% CI, 1.20-3.15]; P = .007), but not in those with CHIP and CRP less than 2 mg/L or those with CRP greater than or equal to 2 mg/L without CHIP, when compared with participants without CHIP and CRP less than 2 mg/L.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this cohort study, TET2 CHIP was an independent risk factor associated with incident HFpEF. This finding may have implications for the prevention and management of HFpEF, including development of targeted therapies.

The Relationship of Neighborhood Disadvantage, Biological Aging, and Psychosocial Risk and Resilience Factors in Heart Failure Incidence Among Black Persons: A Moderated Mediation Analysis

OBJECTIVES

Deprived living environments contribute to greater heart failure (HF) risk among non-Hispanic Black persons, who disproportionately occupy disadvantaged neighborhoods. The mechanisms for these effects are not fully explicated, partially attributable to an insufficient understanding of the individual factors that contribute additional risk or resilience to the impact of neighborhood disadvantage on health. The objective of this study was, therefore, to clarify the complex pathways over which such exposures act to facilitate more targeted, effective interventions. Given the evidence for a mediating role of biological age and a moderating role of individual psychosocial characteristics in the neighborhood disadvantage-HF link, we tested a moderated mediation mechanism.

METHODS

Using multilevel causal moderated mediation models, we prospectively examined whether the association of neighborhood disadvantage with incident HF mediated through accelerated biological aging, captured by the GrimAge epigenetic clock, is moderated by hypothesized psychosocial risk (negative affect) and resilience (optimism) factors.

RESULTS

Among a sample of 1,448 Black participants in the shared Jackson Heart Study-Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities cohort (mean age 64.3 years), 334 adjudicated incident hospitalized HF events occurred over a median follow-up of 18 years. In models adjusted for age and sex, the indirect (GrimAge-mediated) effect of neighborhood disadvantage was moderated by psychosocial risk such that for every standard deviation increase in negative affect the hazards of HF was 1.18 (95% confidence interval = 1.05, 1.36). No moderated mediation effect was detected for optimism.

DISCUSSION

Findings support the necessity for multilevel interventions simultaneously addressing neighborhood and individual psychosocial risk in the reduction of HF among Black persons.

Changes in Pulmonary Artery Pressure Late in Life: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study

BACKGROUND

Although the prognostic implications of higher pulmonary artery systolic pressure (PASP) are well established, few data exist regarding longitudinal change in pulmonary pressure in late life.

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to quantify changes in PASP over 6 years and determine the relative contributions of cardiac and pulmonary dysfunction.

METHODS

Among 1,420 participants in the ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities) study with echocardiographic measures of PASP at both the fifth (2011-2013) and seventh (2018-2019) visits, longitudinal changes in PASP over about 6.5 years were quantified. Multivariable regression was used to determine the extent to which cardiac and pulmonary dysfunction were associated with changes in PASP and to define the relationship of changes in PASP with dyspnea development.

RESULTS

The mean age was 75 ± 5 years at visit 5 and 81 ± 5 years at visit 7, 24% of subjects were Black adults, and 68% were women. Over the 6.5 years, PASP increased by 5 ± 8 mm Hg, from 28 ± 5 to 33 ± 8 mm Hg. PASP increased more in older participants. Predictors of greater increases in PASP included worse left ventricular (LV) systolic and diastolic function, pulmonary function, and renal function. Increases in PASP were associated with concomitant increases in measures of LV filling pressure, including E/e' ratio and left atrial volume index. Each 5 mm Hg increase was associated with 16% higher odds of developing dyspnea (OR: 1.16; 95% CI: 1.07-1.27; P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Pulmonary pressure increased over 6.5 years in late life, was associated with concomitant increases in LV filling pressure, and predicted the development of dyspnea. Interventions targeting LV diastolic function may be effective at mitigating age-related increases in PASP.

Association of interleukin-6 and interleukin-18 with cardiovascular disease in older adults: Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study

AIMS

Interleukin-6 (IL-6) and interleukin-18 (IL-18), important cytokines implicated in atherosclerosis and inflammaging, were assessed for associations with global cardiovascular disease (CVD), atrial fibrillation (AF), and death in older adults.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Participants from Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study Visit 5 (mean age 75.4 ± 5.1 years) with IL-6 and IL-18 measurements were included (n = 5672). Cox regression models were used to assess associations of IL-6 and IL-18 with coronary heart disease (CHD), ischaemic stroke, heart failure (HF) hospitalization, global CVD (composite of CHD, stroke, and HF), AF, and all-cause death. Over a median follow-up of 7.2 years, there were 1235 global CVD events, 530 AF events, and 1173 deaths. Higher IL-6 [hazard ratio (HR) 1.57, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.44-1.72 per log unit increase] and IL-18 (HR 1.13, 95% CI 1.01-1.26) were significantly associated with global CVD after adjustment for cardiovascular risk factors. Association between IL-6 and global CVD remained significant after further adjustment for high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP), N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), and high-sensitivity troponin T (hs-TnT) but was no longer significant for IL-18 after further adjustments. Interleukin-6 was also associated with increased risk for CHD, HF, and AF after adjustment for covariates. Both IL-6 and IL-18 were associated with increased risk for all-cause death independent of cardiovascular risk factors and other biomarkers.

CONCLUSION

Among older adults, both IL-6 and IL-18 were associated with global CVD and death. The association between IL-6 with CVD appears to be more robust and was independent of hs-CRP, NT-proBNP, and hs-TnT.

MMP-2 Associates With Incident Heart Failure and Atrial Fibrillation: The ARIC Study

BACKGROUND

MMP (matrix metalloproteinase)-2 participates in extracellular matrix regulation and may be involved in heart failure (HF), atrial fibrillation (AF), and coronary heart disease.

METHODS

Among the 4693 ARIC study (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities) participants (mean age, 75±5 years; 42% women) without prevalent HF, multivariable Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate associations of plasma MMP-2 levels with incident HF, HF with preserved ejection fraction (≥50%), HF with reduced ejection fraction (<50%), AF, and coronary heart disease. Mediation of the association between MMP-2 and HF was assessed by censoring participants who developed AF or coronary heart disease before HF. Multivariable linear regression models were used to assess associations of MMP-2 with measures of left ventricular and left atrial structure and function.

RESULTS

Compared with the 3 lower quartiles, the highest MMP-2 quartile associated with greater risk of incident HF overall (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.48 [95% CI, 1.21-1.81]), incident HF with preserved ejection fraction (1.44 [95% CI, 1.07-1.94]), incident heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (1.48 [95% CI, 1.08-2.02]), and incident AF (1.44 [95% CI, 1.18-1.77]) but not incident coronary heart disease (0.97 [95% CI, 0.71-1.34]). Censoring AF attenuated the MMP-2 association with HF with preserved ejection fraction. Higher plasma MMP-2 levels were associated with larger left ventricular end-diastolic volume index, greater left ventricular mass index, higher E/e' ratio, larger left atrial volume index, and worse left atrial reservoir and contractile strains (all P<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Higher plasma MMP-2 levels associate with diastolic dysfunction, left atrial dysfunction, and a higher risk of incident HF and AF. AF is a mediator of MMP-2-associated HF with preserved ejection fraction risk.

Circulating neutrophil-related proteins associate with incident heart failure and cardiac dysfunction: The ARIC study

AIMS

Neutrophil activity contributes to adverse cardiac remodelling in experimental acute cardiac injury and is modifiable with pharmacologic agents like colchicine.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Neutrophil activity-related plasma proteins known to be affected by colchicine treatment were measured at Visit 3 (1993-1995) and Visit 5 (2011-2013) of the ARIC cohort study. A protein-based neutrophil activity score was derived from 10 candidate proteins using LASSO Cox regression. Associations with incident heart failure (HF) and with cardiac function using Cox proportional hazards regression and linear regression models, respectively. The mean ages at Visits 3 and 5 were 60 ± 6 and 75 ± 5 years, respectively, and 54% and 57% were women, respectively. Each 1-standard deviation increase in the neutrophil activity score was associated with a higher risk of incident HF in mid-life (hazard ratio [HR] 1.31, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.25-1.37) and late-life (HR 1.23, 95% CI 1.14-1.34), with a higher HR for HF with preserved than reduced ejection fraction (HR 1.30, 95% CI 1.16-1.47 vs. HR 1.13, 95% CI 0.98-1.30). Higher neutrophil activity was associated with greater left ventricular end-diastolic volume index, mass index and diastolic and systolic dysfunction.

CONCLUSIONS

Plasma proteins related to neutrophil function associate with incident HF in mid- and late-life and with adverse cardiac remodelling. Therapies that modify these proteins, such as colchicine, may represent promising targets for the prevention or treatment of HF.

Late-life plasma proteins associated with prevalent and incident frailty: A proteomic analysis

Proteomic approaches have unique advantages in the identification of biological pathways that influence physical frailty, a multifactorial geriatric syndrome predictive of adverse health outcomes in older adults. To date, proteomic studies of frailty are scarce, and few evaluated prefrailty as a separate state or examined predictors of incident frailty. Using plasma proteins measured by 4955 SOMAmers in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Community study, we identified 134 and 179 proteins cross-sectionally associated with prefrailty and frailty, respectively, after Bonferroni correction (p < 1 × 10-5 ) among 3838 older adults aged ≥65 years, adjusting for demographic and physiologic factors and chronic diseases. Among them, 23 (17%) and 82 (46%) were replicated in the Cardiovascular Health Study using the same models (FDR p < 0.05). Notably, higher odds of prefrailty and frailty were observed with higher levels of growth differentiation factor 15 (GDF15; pprefrailty  = 1 × 10-15 , pfrailty  = 2 × 10-19 ), transgelin (TAGLN; pprefrailty  = 2 × 10-12 , pfrailty  = 6 × 10-22 ), and insulin-like growth factor-binding protein 2 (IGFBP2; pprefrailty  = 5 × 10-15 , pfrailty  = 1 × 10-15 ) and with a lower level of growth hormone receptor (GHR, pprefrailty  = 3 × 10-16 , pfrailty  = 2 × 10-18 ). Longitudinally, we identified 4 proteins associated with incident frailty (p < 1 × 10-5 ). Higher levels of triggering receptor expressed on myeloid cells 1 (TREM1), TAGLN, and heart and adipocyte fatty-acid binding proteins predicted incident frailty. Differentially regulated proteins were enriched in pathways and upstream regulators related to lipid metabolism, angiogenesis, inflammation, and cell senescence. Our findings provide a set of plasma proteins and biological mechanisms that were dysregulated in both the prodromal and the clinical stage of frailty, offering new insights into frailty etiology and targets for intervention.

Longitudinal Changes in Left Ventricular Diastolic Function in Late Life: The ARIC Study

BACKGROUND

There is limited data regarding longitudinal changes of diastolic function in the very old, who are at the highest risk for heart failure (HF).

OBJECTIVES

This study aims to quantify intraindividual longitudinal changes of diastolic function over 6 years in late life.

METHODS

The authors studied 2,524 older adult participants in the prospective community-based ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk In Communities) study who underwent protocol-based echocardiography at study visits 5 (2011-2013) and 7 (2018-2019). The primary diastolic measures were tissue Doppler e', E/e' ratio, and left atrial volume index (LAVI).

RESULTS

Mean age was 74 ± 4 years at visit 5 and 80 ± 4 at visit 7, 59% were women, and 24% were Black. At visit 5, mean e'septal was 5.8 ± 1.4 cm/s, E/e'septal 11.7 ± 3.5, and LAVI 24.3 ± 6.7 mL/m2. Over a mean of 6.6 ± 0.8 years, e'septal decreased by 0.6 ± 1.4 cm/s, E/e'septal increased by 3.1 ± 4.4, and LAVI increased by 2.3 ± 6.4 mL/m2. The proportion with 2 or more abnormal diastolic measures increased from 17% to 42% (P < 0.001). Compared with participants free of cardiovascular (CV) risk factors or diseases at visit 5 (n = 234), those with prevalent CV risk factors or diseases but without prevalent or incident HF (n = 2,150) demonstrated greater increases in E/e'septal and LAVI. Increases of E/e'septal and LAVI were both associated with the development of dyspnea between visits in analyses adjusted for CV risk factors.

CONCLUSIONS

Diastolic function generally deteriorates over 6.6 years in late life, particularly among persons with CV risk factors, and is associated with development of dyspnea. Further studies are necessary to determine if risk factor prevention or control will mitigate these changes.

Right Ventricular Function and Pulmonary Coupling in Patients With Heart Failure and Preserved Ejection Fraction

BACKGROUND

Limited data exist to characterize novel measures of right ventricular (RV) function and the coupling to pulmonary circulation in patients with heart failure and preserved left ventricular ejection fraction (HFpEF).

OBJECTIVES

This study sought to assess the clinical implications of RV function, the association with N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, and the risk for adverse events among patients with HFpEF.

METHODS

This study analyzed measures of RV function by assessing absolute RV free wall longitudinal strain (RVFWLS) and its ratio to estimated pulmonary artery systolic pressure (PASP) (RVFWLS/PASP ratio) in 528 patients (mean age 74 ± 8 years, 56% female) with adequate echocardiographic images quality enrolled in the PARAGON-HF trial. Associations with baseline N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide and with total HF hospitalizations and cardiovascular death were assessed, after accounting for confounders.

RESULTS

Overall, 311 patients (58%) had evidence of RV dysfunction, defined as absolute RVFWLS <20%, and among the 388 patients (73%) with normal tricuspid annular planar systolic excursion and RV fractional area change, more than one-half showed impaired RV function. Lower values of RVFWLS and RVFWLS/PASP ratios were significantly associated with higher circulating N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide. With a median follow-up of 2.8 years, there were 277 total HF hospitalizations and cardiovascular deaths. Both absolute RVFWLS (HR: 1.39; 95% CI: 1.05-1.83; P = 0.018) and RVFWLS/PASP ratio (HR: 1.43; 95% CI: 1.13-1.80; P = 0.002) were significantly associated with the composite outcome. Treatment effect of sacubitril/valsartan was not modified by measures of RV function.

CONCLUSIONS

Worsening RV function and its ratio to pulmonary pressure is common and significantly associated with an increased risk of HF hospitalizations and cardiovascular death in patients with HFpEF. (Efficacy and Safety of LCZ696 Compared to Valsartan, on Morbidity and Mortality in Heart Failure Patients With Preserved Ejection Fraction [PARAGON-HF]; NCT01920711).

Bidirectional Association Between Frailty and Cardiac Structure and Function: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study

Background Frailty and heart failure frequently coexist in late life. Limited data exist regarding the longitudinal associations of frailty and subclinical cardiac dysfunction. We aim to quantify the association of frailty with longitudinal changes in cardiac function and of cardiac function with progression in frailty status in older adults. Methods and Results Participants in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities cohort underwent frailty assessments at Visit 5 (V5; 2011-2013), V6 (2016-2017), and V7 (2018-2019), and echocardiographic assessments at V5 and V7. We assessed the association between frailty status at V5 and changes in frailty status from V5 to V7 and changes in cardiac function over 6 years. We then evaluated the association of cardiac function measured at Visit 5 with progression in frailty status over 4 years. Multivariable regression models adjusted for demographics and comorbidities. Among 2574 participants free of heart failure at V5 and V7 (age 74±4 years at V5 and 81±4 years at V7), 3% (n=83) were frail. Frailty at V5 was associated with greater left atrial volume index and E/e' ratio at V5 and 7. Participants who transitioned from robust at V5 to frail at V7 demonstrated greater increases in left ventricular mass index, left atrial volume index, and E/e' over the same period. Among 1648 robust participants at Visit 5, greater left ventricular mass index and mean wall thickness, lower tissue Doppler imaging e', and higher E/e' ratio at Visit 5 were associated with progression in frailty status. Conclusions Among robust, older adults free of heart failure, progression in frailty and subclinical left ventricular remodeling and diastolic dysfunction are interrelated.

Age Dependency of Cardiovascular Outcomes With the Amyloidogenic pV142I Transthyretin Variant Among Black Individuals in the US

Importance

Hereditary transthyretin cardiac amyloidosis is an increasingly recognized cause of heart failure (HF) with distinct treatment. The amyloidogenic pV142I (V122I) variant is present in 3% to 4% of Black individuals in the US and increases the risk for atrial fibrillation (AF), HF, and mortality. Since hereditary transthyretin cardiac amyloidosis demonstrates age-dependent anatomic penetrance, evaluation later in life may identify survivors at particularly high risk.

Objective

To estimate age-dependent risks for cardiovascular events with the variant.

Design, Settings, and Participants

This cohort study analyzed Black participants from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study attending visit 1 (1987-1989) (followed up until 2019; median follow-up, 27.6 years). Data analyses were completed from June 2022 to April 2023.

Exposure

pV142I carrier status.

Main outcomes

The association between the variant and AF, HF hospitalization, mortality, and a composite of HF hospitalization or mortality was modeled by generating 10-year absolute risk differences for each year between ages 53 (the median age at visit 1) and 80 years, adjusting for the first 5 principal components of ancestry and sex. As an example, 5- and 10-year risk differences were specifically estimated for the composite outcome among participants surviving to age 80 years.

Results

Among 3856 Black participants (including 124 carriers) at visit 1, 2403 (62%) were women, 2140 (56%) had hypertension, and 740 (20%) had diabetes, with no differences between groups. The 10-year absolute risk difference between ages 53 and 80 years increased over time for each outcome. Statistical significance for increased 10-year risk difference emerged near ages 65 years for AF, 70 years for HF hospitalization, and 75 years for mortality. Among participants surviving to age 80 years, carriers had a 20% (95% CI, 2%-37%) and 24% (95% CI, 1%-47%) absolute increased risk for HF hospitalization or death at 5 and 10 years, respectively. Thus, at age 80 years, only 4 carriers would need to be identified to attribute 1 HF hospitalization or death over the following decade to the variant.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this study, age-specific risks were provided for relevant outcomes with the pV142I variant. Despite a relatively benign course during earlier years, Black individuals who carry the pV142I variant surviving into later life may be particularly vulnerable. These data may inform timing for screening, risk counseling to patients, and potential strategies for early targeted therapy.

Association of Atrial Fibrillation With Stroke and Dementia Accounting for Left Atrial Function and Size

BACKGROUND

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with higher risks of ischemic stroke (IS) and dementia. Whether alterations in left atrial (LA) function or size-atrial myopathy-confound these associations remains unknown.

OBJECTIVES

The purpose of this study was to examine the association of prevalent and incident AF with ischemic stroke and dementia in the ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk In Communities) study, adjusting for LA function and size.

METHODS

Participants at visit 5 (2011-2013) with echocardiographic LA function (reservoir, conduit, contractile strain, and emptying fraction) and size (maximal, minimal volume index) data, and without prevalent stroke or dementia were followed through 2019. For analysis, we used time-varying Cox regression.

RESULTS

Among 5,458 participants (1,193 with AF, mean age of 76 years) in the stroke analysis and 5,461 participants (1,205 with AF, mean age of 75 years) in the dementia analysis, 209 participants developed ischemic stroke, and 773 developed dementia over 7.1 years (median). In a demographic and risk factor-adjusted model, AF was significantly associated with ischemic stroke (HR, 1.63; 95% CI: 1.11-2.37) and dementia (HR: 1.38, 95% CI: 1.13-1.70). After additionally adjusting for LA reservoir strain, these associations were attenuated and no longer statistically significant (stroke [HR: 1.33, 95% CI: 0.88-2.00], dementia [HR: 1.15, 95% CI: 0.92-1.43]). Associations with ischemic stroke and dementia were also attenuated and not statistically significant after adjustment for LA contractile strain, emptying fraction, and minimal volume index.

CONCLUSIONS

AF-ischemic stroke and AF-dementia associations were not statistically significant after adjusting for measures of atrial myopathy. This proof-of-concept analysis does not support AF as an independent risk factor for ischemic stroke and dementia.

Chronic Kidney Disease, Heart Failure, and Adverse Cardiac Remodeling in Older Adults: The ARIC Study

BACKGROUND

The associations of kidney dysfunction and damage with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) and heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF), as well as adverse cardiac remodeling, in late-life remain incompletely understood.

OBJECTIVES

The authors sought to define the associations between kidney dysfunction and damage and incident HFrEF and HFpEF and cardiac structure and function in late-life.

METHODS

This study included 5,170 adults initially free of a heart failure (HF) diagnosis who had estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR) measured at visit 5 (2011-2013) of the ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk In Communities) study. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the associations of eGFR and UACR with incident HF, HFrEF, and HFpEF through 2019. Multivariable linear regression models were used to investigate the associations of eGFR and UACR at visit 5 with changes in cardiac structure and function between visits 5 and 7 in 2,313 participants with available echocardiograms.

RESULTS

The mean age of participants was 76 ± 5 years, and 2,225 (43%) were men. The mean eGFR and median UACR were 66 ± 18 mL/min/1.73 m2 and 11 mg/g (25th, 75th percentile: 6, 22 mg/g), respectively. In fully adjusted models, both lower eGFR and higher UACR were associated with greater risk of any HF, HFrEF, and HFpEF. Lower eGFR was associated with larger increases in left ventricular end-diastolic volume index and worsening of diastolic measures. UACR did not associate with changes in cardiac structure or function.

CONCLUSIONS

Mild to moderate kidney dysfunction and damage associate with incident HF and adverse cardiac remodeling in late-life.

Regional contributions to impaired myocardial mechanical function in heart failure with preserved ejection fraction

AIMS

Hypertensive heart disease (HHD) is recognized as a key clinical precursor to heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFPEF). However, pathophysiological transition from HHD to HFPEF is not well understood. We sought determine whether regional differences in impaired myocardial function may underlie the greater mechanical dysfunction seen in HFPEF compared to HHD.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We used standardized echocardiography to assess regional myocardial deformation in a cohort of n = 327 adults with preserved left ventricular (LV) ejection fraction (≥45%), including: n = 129 with HFPEF, n = 158 with HHD and no heart failure, and n = 40 normotensive controls. From detailed measurements of LV systolic strain performed in multiple views, we derived and then compared regional measures of basal, mid-ventricular, and apical longitudinal strains. In models adjusting for clinical covariates, basal and mid-ventricular LV myocardial deformation was more impaired in HHD than in controls (P ≤ 0.003), whereas apical deformation was more impaired in HFPEF than in HHD (P = 0.005). In multivariable-adjusted analyses, only apical strain remained independently associated with HFPEF vs. HHD status [odds ratio 1.18 (1.02-1.37), P = 0.030 per 1% decrease in apical strain]. Compared to other regional strains, apical longitudinal strain optimally differentiated HFPEF from HHD (area under the receiver operating curve: apical longitudinal strain = 0.67; mid-ventricular longitudinal strain = 0.59; basal longitudinal strain = 0.60).

CONCLUSION

We found that while apical mechanical function is preserved in HHD, it was impaired in HFPEF and may contribute to the transition from an asymptomatic heart disease to a symptomatic heart disease.

Associations Between Kidney Histopathologic Lesions and Incident Cardiovascular Disease in Adults With Chronic Kidney Disease

Importance

Histologic lesions in the kidney may reflect or contribute to systemic processes that may lead to adverse cardiovascular events.

Objective

To assess the association between kidney histopathologic lesion severity and the risk of incident major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE).

Design, Setting, and Participants

This prospective observational cohort study included participants without a history of myocardial infarction, stroke, or heart failure from the Boston Kidney Biopsy Cohort recruited from 2 academic medical centers in Boston, Massachusetts. Data were collected from September 2006 and November 2018, and data were analyzed from March to November 2021.

Exposures

Semiquantitative severity scores for kidney histopathologic lesions adjudicated by 2 kidney pathologists, a modified kidney pathology chronicity score, and primary clinicopathologic diagnostic categories.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The main outcome was the composite of death or incident MACE, which included myocardial infarction, stroke, and heart failure hospitalization. All cardiovascular events were independently adjudicated by 2 investigators. Cox proportional hazards models estimated associations of histopathologic lesions and scores with cardiovascular events adjusted for demographic characteristics, clinical risk factors, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), and proteinuria.

Results

Of 597 included participants, 308 (51.6%) were women, and the mean (SD) age was 51 (17) years. The mean (SD) eGFR was 59 (37) mL/min per 1.73 m2, and the median (IQR) urine protein to creatinine ratio was 1.54 (0.39-3.95). The most common primary clinicopathologic diagnoses were lupus nephritis, IgA nephropathy, and diabetic nephropathy. Over a median (IQR) of 5.5 (3.3-8.7) years of follow-up, the composite of death or incident MACE occurred in 126 participants (37 per 1000 person-years). Compared with the reference group of individuals with proliferative glomerulonephritis, the risk of death or incident MACE was highest in individuals with nonproliferative glomerulopathy (hazard ratio [HR], 2.61; 95% CI, 1.30-5.22; P = .002), diabetic nephropathy (HR, 3.56; 95% CI, 1.62-7.83; P = .002), and kidney vascular diseases (HR, 2.86; 95% CI, 1.51-5.41; P = .001) in fully adjusted models. The presence of mesangial expansion (HR, 2.98; 95% CI, 1.08-8.30; P = .04) and arteriolar sclerosis (HR, 1.68; 95% CI, 1.03-2.72; P = .04) were associated with an increased risk of death or MACE. Compared with minimal chronicity, greater chronicity was significantly associated with an increased risk of death or MACE (severe: HR, 2.50; 95% CI, 1.06-5.87; P = .04; moderate: HR, 1.66; 95% CI, 0.74-3.75; P = .22; mild: HR, 2.22; 95% CI, 1.01-4.89; P = .047) in fully adjusted models.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this study, specific kidney histopathological findings were associated with increased risks of CVD events. These results provide potential insight into mechanisms of the heart-kidney relationship beyond those provided by eGFR and proteinuria.

Reclassification of Pre-Heart Failure Stages Using Cardiac Biomarkers: The ARIC Study

BACKGROUND

The recent heart failure (HF) guideline recommends the inclusion of cardiac biomarkers in defining Stage B HF.

OBJECTIVES

The authors evaluated the impact of incorporating cardiac biomarkers to reclassify HF in 5,324 participants (mean age: 75.8 years) without prevalent HF enrolled in the ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk In Communities) study and assessed prognosis of Stage B using cardiac biomarkers.

METHODS

Using N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (<125 pg/mL or ≥125 pg/mL), high-sensitivity troponin T (<14 ng/L or ≥14 ng/L), and abnormal cardiac structure/function by echocardiography, individuals were classified as Stage Anew and Stage Bnew HF, respectively. Stage Bnew was further evaluated as elevated biomarker only, abnormal echocardiogram only, and abnormalities in both (echo + biomarker). The authors assessed risk for incident HF and all-cause death using Cox regression.

RESULTS

Overall, 4,326 (81.3%) individuals were classified as Stage Bnew with 1,123 (21.1%) meeting criteria for elevated biomarkers only. Compared with Stage Anew, Stage Bnew was associated with increased risk for incident HF (HR: 3.70 [95% CI: 2.58-5.30]) and death (HR: 1.94 [95% CI: 1.53-2.46]). Stage Bbiomarkers only and Stage Becho only were associated with increased HF risk, whereas Stage Bbiomarkers only was also associated with increased death. Stage Becho+biomarker had the highest risk for HF (HR: 6.34 [95% CI: 4.37-9.19]) and death (HR: 2.53 [95% CI: 1.98-3.23]).

CONCLUSIONS

Incorporating biomarkers based on the new HF guideline reclassified approximately 1 in 5 older adults without prevalent HF to Stage B. The routine measurement of biomarkers can help to identify individuals at higher HF risk who may benefit most from HF prevention efforts.

Impact of Diabetes and Hypertension on Left Ventricular Structure and Function: The Jackson Heart Study

Background Diabetes and hypertension have been associated with adverse left ventricular (LV) remodeling. While they often occur concurrently, their individual effects are understudied. We aimed to assess the independent effects of diabetes and hypertension on LV remodeling in Black adults. Methods and Results The JHS (Jackson Heart Study) participants (n=4143 Black adults) with echocardiographic measures from baseline exam were stratified into 4 groups: neither diabetes nor hypertension (n=1643), only diabetes (n=152), only hypertension (n=1669), or both diabetes and hypertension (n=679). Echocardiographic measures of LV structure and function among these groups were evaluated by multivariable regression adjusting for covariates. Mean age of the participants was 52±1 years, and 63.7% were women. LV mass index was not different in participants with only diabetes compared with participants with neither diabetes nor hypertension (P=0.8). LV mass index was 7.9% (6.0 g/m2) higher in participants with only hypertension and 10.8% (8.1 g/m2) higher in participants with both diabetes and hypertension compared with those with neither (P<0.001). LV wall thickness (relative, posterior, and septal) and brain natriuretic peptide levels in participants with only diabetes were not significantly higher than participants with neither (P>0.05). However, participants with both diabetes and hypertension demonstrated higher LV wall thickness and brain natriuretic peptide levels than participants with neither (P<0.05). Conclusions In this cross-sectional analysis, diabetes was not associated with altered LV structure or function in Black adults unless participants also had hypertension. Our findings suggest hypertension is the main contributor to cardiac structural and functional changes in Black adults with diabetes.

Association of Long-term Change in N-Terminal Pro-B-Type Natriuretic Peptide With Incident Heart Failure and Death

Importance

Most studies, especially in primary prevention patients, have evaluated N-terminal B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) at one time point. Evaluation of change in NT-proBNP may improve risk stratification for incident cardiovascular events.

Objective

To assess the association between change in NT-proBNP and risk for incident heart failure (HF) and death.

Design, Setting, and Participants

Participants were recruited from 4 US communities enrolled in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Community (ARIC) study. Individuals who attended ARIC visits 2 and 4 (approximately 6 years apart) with measurements of NT-proBNP and without prevalent HF were included. Assays of NT-proBNP were conducted between 2011 and 2013, and analysis took place between July 2021 and October 2022.

Exposures

The primary exposure variable was NT-proBNP change between visits 2 and 4, modeled as change categories (<125 pg/mL or ≥125 pg/mL) and as percent change.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary outcome measures were incident HF hospitalization and all-cause death. The association between changes in cardiovascular risk factors with change in NT-proBNP was further assessed.

Results

A total of 9776 individuals (mean [SD] age, 57.1 [5.7] years at visit 2; 5523 [56.5%] women) were included in the study. Compared with participants with NT-proBNP level less than 125 pg/mL at both visits, participants with NT-proBNP level of 125 pg/mL or higher at both visits had an increase in incident HF (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 2.40 [95% CI, 2.00-2.88]) and mortality risk (HR, 1.68 [95% CI, 1.47-1.91). Participants with NT-proBNP levels of 125 pg/mL or higher at visit 2 and less than 125 pg/mL at visit 4 had similar risk for HF and death (HR, 1.01 [95% CI, 0.71-1.43]; HR, 0.79 [95% CI, 0.61-1.01]) compared with the group with NT-proBNP levels of less than 125 pg/mL at both visits. The percent change in NT-proBNP was positively associated with HF and death (HR, 1.06 [95% CI, 1.02-1.10]; HR, 1.05 [95% CI, 1.03-1.08] per 1-SD increase, respectively). Change in systolic blood pressure, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglyceride level, body mass index, and estimated glomerular filtration rate were significantly associated with change in NT-proBNP.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this study, 6-year change in NT-proBNP reflected dynamic change in risk for HF events and death among community-dwelling adults without prevalent clinical HF. These results support the utility of serial NT-proBNP measurements to improve risk stratification of patients with pre-HF.

Abstract 28: Proteomic Signatures of Adiposity in Middle-Aged Adults: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study

Background: Excess adiposity is linked to adverse cardiovascular outcomes via direct and indirect effects on metabolic pathways. There is limited large-scale data assessing proteomic signatures of adiposity.

Methods: We quantified 4,955 plasma proteins using SomaLogic v4.0 in stored plasma samples of 9,940 ARIC Visit 2 participants (1990-92, mean age: 57±6 years, 55% women, 22% Black adults, 28% with obesity). We used linear regression and Bonferroni-corrected p-values to identify proteins associated with body mass index (BMI) in 2/3 discovery and 1/3 validation samples. We performed additional analyses to assess key pathways associated with obesity.

Results: In the discovery sample (28% with obesity), after adjusting for age, sex, race-center, eGFR, 1,312 proteins were significantly associated with BMI. After further adjustments for clinical and lifestyle risk factors (Figure), 975 proteins were significantly associated with BMI (p<10 -5 ). There were 713 proteins confirmed in the validation sample (p<0.05/975). Among the confirmed proteins, there were >500 proteins that did not have previously described BMI associations in population studies (including serine protease HTRA1, seizure 6-like protein) as well as proteins with known BMI associations (including leptin, fatty acid binding proteins, insulin-like growth factor-binding proteins). Acute phase response, atherosclerosis signaling, hepatic fibrosis, pancreatic cancer and lipid metabolism were among the top biological pathways overrepresented by the proteins associated with BMI (Figure). The upstream regulators of these proteins included interleukins (IL-17A, IL-13, IL-4), as well as tumor necrosis factor (TNF), which was activated.

Conclusion: We discovered several novel proteins associated with adiposity and confirmed previously identified proteins. Alteration in the plasma proteome related to adiposity is linked to differential regulation of inflammatory and metabolic pathways independent of cardiovascular risk mediators.

Abstract P174: The Association Between Infection-Related Hospitalization and Incident Heart Failure: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study

Introduction: Infections are associated with worse clinical outcomes among patients with heart failure (HF). However, little is known about the influence of infection-related hospitalizations on development of incident HF and its subtype.

Hypothesis: We hypothesize that those with an infection-related hospitalization (hereafter ‘infection’) compared to those without infection, will experience an increased rate of incident HF events (any HF, HF with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) and HF with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF)).

Methods: We examined 14,398 participants enrolled in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study who were HF free at visit 1 (1987-1989). Hospitalized infections and HF were identified via participant self-report and active surveillance of hospitalizations. Among the hospitalized, infection was further defined using ICD-9/10 codes in the first five positions of hospital records. A subset of HF events was further classified as HFpEF or HFrEF via chart abstraction and adjudication by centrally trained and certified physicians. Infection was treated as a time-varying exposure and the co-occurrence of infection and HF in the same hospital visit were excluded. Multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards models assessed the association between infection and incident HF, HFrEF, and HFpEF.

Results: The overall baseline sample was 54% (7,835 of 14,398) female, 26% (3,688 of 14,398) Black and had a mean(SD) age of 54(5.8). Mean(SD) time to infection was 16.1(8.7) years, and 2.3(7.5) years from infection to incident HF. Average follow-up among the full sample was 23.0(8.5). Overall, 46% (6,603 of 14,398) had an infection and 3,561 developed any HF. Among participants with subtype adjudication, 470 had HFpEF and 450 had HFrEF. Infection-related hospitalization was associated with an increased risk for both HFpEF and HFrEF (Table).

Conclusion: Infection-related hospitalization was associated with both incident HFpEF and HFrEF. A stronger effect is seen among those with HFpEF.

Abstract P591: Prevalence and Prognosis Comparing the New vs. Old ACC/AHA/HFSA HF Stage Classification: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study

Introduction: New guidelines for the management of heart failure (HF) have now incorporated cardiac biomarkers in the definition of those in pre-clinical HF (Stage B). We sought to compare the prevalence and prognosis according to the new vs. old ACC/AHA/HFSA HF Stage classification using data from the ARIC study visit 5 (2011-2013).

Methods: The “old” classification included Stage 0 (no HF risk factors), Stage A (at risk for HF; without structural heart disease or symptoms), Stage B (structural heart disease; without HF signs and symptoms), Stage C1 (current or previous HF symptoms without HF hospitalization); Stage C2 (current or previous HF symptoms with HF hospitalization); Stage D (marked HF symptoms interfering with daily life). The “new” HF Stage classification included elevated NT-proBNP and cardiac troponin as evidence of Stage B. We examined all-cause mortality over five years, using tKaplan Meier method and multivariable Cox models.

Results: Among 5,004 participants (mean age 75.3 (SD 5.1) years, 57% women, 22% Black), 28% had diabetes, 74% had hypertension, and 15% had coronary artery disease. With the new HF Stage classification, the prevalence of Stage 0/A decreased from 58% (n=2,887) to 27% (n=1,334), and Stage B increased from 29% (n=1,468) to 60% (n=3,021). The prevalence of Stage C2 and C1 were 7.3% and 5.7%, respectively, regardless of the new or old classification (no individuals had Stage D), with corresponding 5-year cumulative mortality of 33% and 21%. The new classification using cardiac biomarkers newly identified individuals as Stage B with mortality risk similar to those who were originally in Stage B (5-y cumulative mortality 10% and 12%, respectively). This “reclassification” left individuals with lower mortality risk as Stage 0/A (5-year cumulative mortality 5% vs. 8% in the new vs. old classification). When we adjusted for potential confounders, individuals newly classified as Stage B had an elevated mortality compared to those with Stage 0/A (HR 1.32 [0.98-1.77]) but not as high as those in original Stage B (1.83 [1.36-2.45]).

Conclusions: The new HF classification newly identified a large number of older adults as Stage B, and they indeed had elevated mortality than those who stayed in Stage 0/A. However, after accounting for potential confounders, individuals newly classified as Stage B had slightly lower mortality than those originally in Stage B. Our findings will guide clinicians as to how to interpret new HF classification in terms of prognosis.

Abstract P196: Metabolomic Associations With Cardiac Function and Incident Heart Failure in Multi-Ethnic Populations

Introduction: Measures of cardiac structure and function provide important diagnostic and prognostic information for heart failure (HF). Few studies have assessed the associations of circulating metabolites with cardiac structure and function.

Hypothesis: We hypothesize that circulating metabolites that reflect aging process are associated with cardiac structure and function measures and incident HF.

Methods: Participants from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study visit 5 and the Hispanic Community Health Study / Study of Latinos (HCHS/SOL) study visit 1 who had serum metabolite measures but not prevalent HF were included. Linear regressions were used to examine the associations of metabolites with ten cardiac structure and function variables adjusting for clinical risk factors in each race and study strata, followed by random-effect meta-analyses. The Cox regression was applied to examine the relationship between those identified metabolites and incident HF post visit 5 in ARIC.

Results: Among 589 analyzed metabolites, 179 were associated with cardiac structure or function measures in 706 Blacks, 3,358 Whites, and 1,380 Hispanics (FDR < 0.05). Forty-one metabolites were related to two or more measures, where 22 were associated with incident HF (308 HF cases, p<0.05, Figure). Metabolites were more associated with cardiac size or diastolic function compared to systolic function measures, i.e., C-glycosyltryptophan, an amino acid that is strongly correlated with age, was positively associated with left ventricular mass index (LVMI) and left atrial volume index(LVAI), as well as an increased risk of HF (HR=1.48); and dodecadienoate (12:2), a dicarboxylate that may have anti-aging property, was negatively associated with LVMI and LVAI, as well as a decreased risk of HF (HR=0.84).

Conclusions: We identified multiple metabolites associated with cardiac structure and function measures in multi-ethnic populations, highlighting metabolic pathways in aging and their impact on HF.

Abstract P329: Eicosanoids and Heart Failure Risk in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study

Introduction: Eicosanoids play an important role in regulating inflammation response, which influences the development of heart failure (HF). However, the association between eicosanoids and the risk of HF remains unclear.

Hypothesis: We hypothesize that eicosanoid metabolites are associated with incident HF and may improve HF prediction.

Methods: We measured plasma eicosanoids via liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry among HF-free participants at visit 2 (1990-1992) from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study. The Cox proportional hazard regression was performed to evaluate the relationship between eicosanoids and incident HF controlling for clinical risk factors. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator was applied to identify a representative subset of eicosanoids towards constructing an eicosanoid risk score (ERS). We further conducted genome-wide association analyses to examine the genetic determinants for HF related eicosanoids in black and white participants respectively.

Results: During an average of 21 years of follow up, 2,202 (28.0 % blacks, 50.3% women) out of 9,519 participants developed HF. Out of 200 eicosanoids analyzed, six with hazard ratio between 0.89 to 1.10 were found associated with the risk of HF (FDR <0.05) per SD change, namely 11-dehydro-2,3-dinor-TXB2, 5-hydroperoxyicosa-6,8,11,14,17-pentaenoic acid, 13-hydroperoxyoctadeca-9,11-dienoic acid, eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) [M-H], and EPA [M-H+Acetate]. Genetic loci were identified for six HF related eicosanoids (p<8.3e-9). One locus, rs6600888, an intronic variant of UGT2B7 , where its T allele was associated with lower EPA [M-H+Acetate] level while positively affect the risk of HF and systolic blood pressure level. ERS constructed from 52 eicosanoids showed a 39% increase in HF risk per SD increment and twice the risk between the highest and the lowest ERS quartile (p < 0.001). The addition of ERS to the HF 10-years prediction model modestly improved the C-statistics from 0.799 to 0.808, 95%CI ΔC : 0.004-0.015.

Conclusion: We identified a set of eicosanoids that significantly associated with increased risk of HF. The contributing genetic variation of eicosanoids may depict the biological pathways related to HF.

Abstract 37: Proteomic Signatures of Obesity-Related Heart Failure in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study

Background: Obesity is a strong risk factor for cardiovascular disease. The excess heart failure (HF) risk associated with obesity is uniquely unexplained by traditional risk mediators. We sought to identify proteomic signatures that reflect mechanistic pathways associated with obesity-related HF.

Methods: We quantified 4955 plasma proteins in stored plasma samples of ARIC Visit 2 (1990-1992) participants without HF using an aptamer-based platform (SOMAScan v4.0). We used Cox regression to identify the proteins associated with incident HF, stratified by obesity (BMI≥30 kg/m 2 ). We used Bonferroni-corrected p-values to assess statistical significance in 2/3 discovery and 1/3 validation subsets. We assessed the biological pathways overexpressed by these proteins using a canonical pathway analysis.

Results: We included 9940 participants (28% with obesity, mean age 57 years, 55% female, 22% Black adults). Over a median 21-year follow-up, 2,345 HF events (886 in obesity) occurred. In the discovery subset with obesity, we identified 110 proteins associated with incident HF after demographic adjustment, 19 proteins (7 specific to obesity, Figure B) had robust HF associations after additional adjustment for lifestyle and cardiometabolic risk factors (p<10 -5 ) (Figure A). Of 19 proteins, 12 were also linked to prevalent obesity status. Angiopoietin-2 was associated with higher risk of HF and higher odds of obesity. Conversely, ephrin type-A receptor 4 and seizure 6-like protein were linked to lower HF risk and lower odds of obesity. Lipid and bile acid metabolism (inhibited), cytokine signaling and wound healing pathways (activated) were overexpressed by HF-associated proteins in those with obesity.

Conclusion: We identified established and novel proteins associated with HF risk in obesity. Many proteins linked to incident HF in obesity are also strongly associated with prevalent obesity. Formal mediation analysis can help elucidate the potential role of these proteins in the development of obesity-related HF.

Abstract P194: Proteomic Profiling of Pulmonary Function Decline and Cardiovascular Disease Risk in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study

Introduction: Measures of pulmonary function are associated with cardiovascular disease risk; however, the underlying mechanism remains unclear.

Hypothesis: We hypothesize that protein biomarkers are associated with pulmonary function decline, as well as the risk of subsequent incident coronary heart disease (CHD), heart failure (HF), and mortality.

Methods: We included participants from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study with plasma proteome measured by SOMAscan and spirometric measures (forced expiratory volume in the first second (FEV1) and forced vital capacity (FVC)) at both visits 2 (1990-1992) and 5 (2011-2013). Cross-sectional associations of protein levels with FEV1 and FVC at both visits were assessed using multivariable linear regression. The decline of FEV1 was evaluated among proteins related to cross-sectional FEV1 and FVC measures. The FEV1-decline-related proteins were further probed into the effects on incident CHD, HF, and mortality, using Cox proportional hazard models post-visit 2.

Results: Out of 4,677 proteins, 364 were cross-sectionally associated with both FEV1 and FVC at visit 2 (n=11,354, age 57, 23% blacks, and 56% women) and 5 (n=3,517, age 75, 17% blacks, and 58% women) at FDR <0.05. Twenty-seven of 364 proteins were associated with FEV1 decline between visits (FDR <0.05). The protein effects were more predominant in women than men (p <0.001). Among 27 FEV1 decline-related proteins, 25 and 27 were associated with incident HF and mortality during an average of 29 years follow-up (FDR <0.05, Figure ). Gamma-aminobutyric acid receptor-associated protein showed the greatest effect with FEV1 decline, and its per SD increase was associated with 20% higher risk of HF and mortality. Compared to HF and mortality, FEV1 decline-related proteins were less associated with incident CHD.

Conclusions: Twenty-seven proteins related to pulmonary function decline were heavily associated with the risk of HF and mortality, suggesting shared etiology between those conditions.

Abstract P199: Proteomic Markers of Aortic Stenosis: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study

Introduction: Although prevalence of aortic stenosis (AS) is increasing, little is known regarding circulating proteins predictive of AS development.

Hypothesis: Novel circulating proteins associated with AS hemodynamics and clinical outcomes can be discovered using plasma proteomics.

Methods: In the community-based Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study, we measured plasma proteomics using the SOMAscan aptamer-affinity assay (n=4,877 aptamers; Somalogic Inc.) at study Visits 3 (V3; 1992-94; n=11,430) and 5 (V5; 2011-2013; n=4,899). Multivariable linear regression was used to estimate cross-sectional associations of log-transformed proteins at V5 with aortic valve (AV) peak velocity (Vmax) assessed by protocol echocardiography at a false discovery rate (FDR) of <0.05. We then assessed the association of Vmax-related proteins at V3 with incident AV-related hospitalizations post-V3 using multivariable Cox proportional hazard models at FDR of <0.05. All models adjusted for cardiovascular risk factors and diseases at the time of visit.

Results: At V5 (age 76 ± 5 years; 43% male; 18% Black adults), 946 proteins were cross-sectionally associated with Vmax. At V3, (age 60 ± 6 years; 46% male; 21% Black), 84 of these were associated with risk of AS-related hospitalization post-V3 (median follow-up 22.2 [IQR 14.4 - 24.8] years, n=912 events). Of these 84 proteins, 52 were also cross-sectionally associated with the Dimensionless index (DI) at V5. Hierarchical clustering based on V5 AV hemodynamic indices identified one cluster of 14 proteins associated with lower hemodynamic AS severity and risk of AV-related hospitalization ( Figure ). Proteins in the remaining three clusters were associated with higher Vmax, lower DI, and higher risk of AV-related hospitalization. The nine proteins in cluster 4 were also associated with lower indexed AV area.

Conclusion: We identified 52 circulating proteins with robust associations with AV hemodynamics and hospitalization risk, providing potential novel biomarkers for AS risk.

Abstract P202: Proteomic Markers Associated With the Risk of Incident Hypertension in the Community: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study

Introduction: Proteins are involved in the pathophysiology of hypertension (HTN), but there are no large scale prospective proteomic analyses of incident HTN.

Hypothesis: To identify and validate plasma proteins associated with incident HTN among a bi-racial cohort in the US.

Methods: We quantified the associations of 4,955 plasma proteins (measured by SomaScan version 4 assay) with incident HTN over median follow-up of 11 years among 5,080 participants without baseline hypertension at ARIC visit 3 (1993-95). We then validated significant proteins from the primary analysis with incident HTN between visit 2 (n=6,810 during 1990-92) and visit 3 (median follow-up of 3.1y), to avoid including the same incident HTN cases in both analyses. Incident HTN was defined as systolic blood pressure (BP) ≥140, diastolic BP ≥90 mmHg, or HTN medication use. We ran multivariable Cox models and applied Benjamin-Hochberg procedure, with false discovery rate of 0.05, to account for multiple comparisons.

Results: In the primary analysis with visit 3 as baseline (mean age 59y, 54% women, 13% Black), 3,828 participants (75%) developed HTN, and we found 55 proteins significantly associated with incident HTN. Among them, 14 proteins were validated using visit 2 data (Figure). Of those, 11 showed positive associations with HTN, and they are involved in glycoprotein degradation (e.g., MMP7, HTRA1, ASGR1, GUSB, CPM), cell adhesion (e.g., LGALS3BP and RET), and inflammation (e.g., CRP). In contrast, 3 proteins, renin ([REN]), netrin receptor ([UNC5D] apoptosis) and secretogranin-3([SCG3] endothelial cell growth), had inverse relationships with incident HTN. Further exploration showed a U-shaped association between renin and incident HTN.

Conclusion: We identified several proteins associated with incident HTN, with plausible functions contributing to the development of HTN. These findings have implications on understanding mechanisms of HTN and potential targets for prevention and treatment.

Stages of Valvular Heart Disease Among Older Adults in the Community: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study

BACKGROUND

Limited data exist on American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association valvular heart disease (VHD) stage prevalence, progression, and association with incident cardiovascular diseases in late life.

METHODS

Participants in the ARIC study (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities), a prospective community-based cohort study, underwent protocol echocardiography at ARIC visits 5 (2011-2013) and 7 (2018-2019), and their aortic stenosis, aortic regurgitation, mitral stenosis, and mitral regurgitation stage were defined according to American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association guidelines. The overall VHD stage prevalence at visit 5 was measured. The associations between VHD stages and incident adjudicated death, heart failure, coronary heart disease, stroke, and atrial fibrillation were assessed with Cox proportional hazard models adjusted for age, sex, race, hypertension, diabetes, prior myocardial infarction, heart failure, body mass index, study center, systolic blood pressure, estimated glomerular filtration rate, and low-density lipoprotein at visit 5. Longitudinal changes in VHD stage prevalence over ≈6 years were estimated with inverse probability of attrition weights to account for participant attrition.

RESULTS

Among 6118 ARIC participants, the mean±SD age was 76±5 years, 42% were male, and 22% reported Black race. Stage A VHD was present in 39%, stage B in 17%, and stage C/D in 1.1%;, 0.7% had previously undergone valve replacement or repair. A graded association was observed between stage A, B, and C/D VHD and risk of all-cause mortality, incident heart failure, incident atrial fibrillation, and incident coronary heart disease, but not incident stroke. Similar findings were observed for stages of each valvular lesion individually. During the 6.6 years (interquartile range, 6.1-7.0 years) between visits 5 and 7 (mean age, 81±4 years), the prevalence of freedom from VHD stage decreased from 43% to 24%, whereas the prevalence of stage C/D VHD increased from 1% to 7%.

CONCLUSIONS

Subclinical VHD is common in older adults, with 39% at risk (stage A) and 17% with progressive VHD (stage B), and is independently associated with risk of incident cardiovascular events. VHD stages progress over 6 years in late life, with a several-fold increase in prevalence of severe VHD (stage C/D), highlighting the public health importance of interventions to mitigate VHD progression.

Vitamin D Levels in Black Americans and the Association With Left Ventricular Remodeling and Incident Heart Failure With Preserved Ejectin Fraction: The Jackson Heart Study

BACKGROUND

In observational studies, a lower serum vitamin D₃ concentration has been associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease. However, the associations between serum vitamin D₃ levels and left ventricular (LV) structure and heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) have not been well-characterized among Black Americans. The prevalence of vitamin D₃ deficiency is higher among Black Americans than in other race/ethnicity groups. We hypothesized that serum vitamin D₃ levels are associated with LV concentric remodeling and incident HFpEF in Black Americans.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Among 5306 Black Americans in the Jackson Heart Study cohort, we investigated the relationships between serum vitamin D₃ levels and LV structure and function, evaluated with echocardiography, and incident HF hospitalization, categorized as either HF with reduced EF (HFrEF; an EF of <50%) or HFpEF (an EF of ≥50%). After adjustment for possible confounding factors, lower vitamin D₃ levels were associated with greater relative wall thickness (β for 1 standard deviation [SD] increase -0.003, 95% confidence interval -0.005 to -0.000). Over a median follow-up period of 11 years (range 10.2-11.0 years), 340 participants developed incident HF (7.88 cases per 1000 person-years), including 146 (43%) HFrEF and 194 (57%) HFpEF cases. After adjustment, higher serum vitamin D₃ levels were associated with decreased hazard for HF overall (hazard ratio for 1 SD increase 0.88, 95% confidence interval 0.78-0.99) driven by a significant association with HFpEF (hazard ratio for 1 SD increase 0.84, 95% confidence interval 0.71-0.99).

CONCLUSIONS

In this community-based Black American cohort, lower serum vitamin D₃ levels were associated with LV concentric remodeling and an increased hazard for HF, mainly HFpEF. Further investigation is required to examine whether supplementation with vitamin D₃ can prevent LV concentric remodeling and incident HFpEF in Black Americans.

Coronary Flow Reserve, Inflammation, and Myocardial Strain: The CIRT-CFR Trial

Inflammation is a key determinant of cardiovascular outcomes, but its role in heart failure is uncertain. In patients with cardiometabolic disease enrolled in the prospective, multicenter ancillary study of CIRT (Cardiovascular Inflammation Reduction Trial), CIRT-CFR (Coronary Flow Reserve to Assess Cardiovascular Inflammation), impaired coronary flow reserve was independently associated with increased inflammation and myocardial strain despite well-controlled lipid, glycemic, and hemodynamic profiles. Inflammation modified the relationship between CFR and myocardial strain, disrupting the association between cardiac blood flow and function. Future studies are needed to investigate whether an early inflammation-mediated reduction in CFR capturing microvascular ischemia may lead to heart failure in patients with cardiometabolic disease. (Cardiovascular Inflammation Reduction Trial [CIRT]; NCT01594333; Coronary Flow Reserve to Assess Cardiovascular Inflammation [CIRT-CFR]; NCT02786134).

Measures of Food Inadequacy and Cardiovascular Disease Risk in Black Individuals in the US From the Jackson Heart Study

Importance

Food insecurity disproportionately affects Black individuals in the US. Its association with coronary heart disease (CHD), heart failure (HF), and stroke is unclear.

Objective

To evaluate the associations of economic food insecurity and proximity with unhealthy food options with risk of incident CHD, HF, and stroke and the role of diet quality and stress.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cohort study was a time-to-event analysis of 3024 Black adult participants in the Jackson Heart Study (JHS) without prevalent cardiovascular disease (CVD) at visit 1 (2000-2004). Data analysis was conducted from September 1, 2020, to November 30, 2021.

Exposures

Economic food insecurity, defined as receiving food stamps or self-reported not enough money for groceries, and high frequency of unfavorable food stores (>2.5 unfavorable food stores [fast food restaurants, convenience stores] within 1 mile).

Main Outcomes and Measures

The main outcomes were incident CVD including incident CHD, stroke, and HF with preserved ejection fraction and with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). During a median follow-up of 13.8 (IQR, 12.8-14.6) years, the associations of measures of food inadequacy with incident CVD (CHD, stroke, and HF) were assessed using multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models.

Results

Among the 3024 study participants, the mean (SD) age was 54 (12) years, 1987 (66%) were women, 630 (21%) were economically food insecure, and 50% (by definition) had more than 2.5 unfavorable food stores within 1 mile. In analyses adjusted for cardiovascular risk and socioeconomic factors, economic food insecurity was associated with higher risk of incident CHD (hazard ratio [HR], 1.76; 95% CI, 1.06-2.91) and incident HFrEF (HR, 2.07; 95% CI, 1.16-3.70), but not stroke. These associations persisted after further adjustment for diet quality and perceived stress. In addition, economic food insecurity was associated with higher high-sensitivity C-reactive protein and renin concentrations. High frequency of unfavorable food stores was not associated with CHD, HF, or stroke.

Conclusions and Relevance

The findings of this cohort study suggest that economic food insecurity, but not proximity to unhealthy food options, was associated with risk of incident CHD and HFrEF independent of socioeconomic factors, traditional cardiovascular risk factors, diet quality, perceived stress, and other health behaviors. Economic food insecurity was also associated with markers of inflammation and neurohormonal activation. Economic food insecurity may be a promising potential target for the prevention of CVD.

Left Atrial Mechanical Dysfunction and the Risk for Ischemic Stroke in People Without Prevalent Atrial Fibrillation or Stroke : A Prospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Atrial myopathy-characterized by changes in left atrial function and size-may precede and promote atrial fibrillation (AF) and cardiac thromboembolism. In people without prior AF or stroke, whether analysis of left atrial function and size can improve ischemic stroke prediction is unknown.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the association of echocardiographic left atrial function (reservoir, conduit, and contractile strain) and left atrial size (left atrial volume index) with ischemic stroke and determine whether these measures can improve the stroke prediction achieved by CHA2DS2-VASc score variables.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study.

SETTING

ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities) study.

PARTICIPANTS

4917 ARIC participants without prevalent stroke or AF.

MEASUREMENTS

Ischemic stroke events (2011 to 2019) were adjudicated by physicians. Left atrial strain was measured using speckle-tracking echocardiography.

RESULTS

Over 5 years, the cumulative incidences of ischemic stroke in the lowest quintiles of left atrial reservoir, conduit, and contractile strain were 2.99% (95% CI, 1.89% to 4.09%), 3.18% (CI, 2.14% to 4.22%), and 2.15% (CI, 1.09% to 3.21%), respectively, and that of severe left atrial enlargement was 1.99% (CI, 0.23% to 3.75%). On the basis of the Akaike information criterion, left atrial reservoir strain plus CHA2DS2-VASc variables was the best predictive model. With the addition of left atrial reservoir strain to CHA2DS2-VASc variables, 11.6% of the 112 participants with stroke after 5 years were reclassified to higher risk categories and 1.8% to lower risk categories. Among the 4805 participants who did not develop stroke, 12.2% were reclassified to lower and 12.7% to higher risk categories. Decision curve analysis showed a predicted net benefit of 1.34 per 1000 people at a 5-year risk threshold of 5%.

LIMITATION

Underascertainment of subclinical AF.

CONCLUSION

In people without prior AF or stroke, when added to CHA2DS2-VASc variables, left atrial reservoir strain improves stroke prediction and yields a predicted net benefit, as shown by decision curve analysis.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute of the National Institutes of Health.

Spironolactone effect on cardiac structure and function of patients with heart failure and preserved ejection fraction: a pooled analysis of three randomized trials

AIMS

Spironolactone is currently used in a large proportion of patients with heart failure and preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF), yet its effect on cardiac structure and function in a large population has not been well established. The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of spironolactone on key echocardiographic parameters in HFpEF.

METHODS AND RESULTS

An individual-patient-data meta-analysis of three randomized trials (HOMAGE, Aldo-DHF, and TOPCAT) was performed comparing spironolactone (9-12 month exposure) to placebo (or control) for the changes in left atrial volume index (LAVi), left ventricular mass index (LVMi), interventricular septum (IVS) thickness, E/e' ratio, and left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) among patients with stage B (HOMAGE) or C (Aldo-DHF and TOPCAT) HFpEF. Analysis of covariance was used to test the effect of spironolactone on echocardiographic changes. A total of 984 patients were included in this analysis: 452 (45.9%) from HOMAGE, 398 (40.4%) from Aldo-DHF, and 134 (13.6%) from TOPCAT. The pooled-cohort patient's median age was 71 (66-77) years and 39% were women. Median LAVi was 29 (24-35) ml/m² , LVMi 100 (84-118) g/m² , IVS thickness 12 (10-13) mm, E/e' ratio 11 (9-13), and LVEF 64 (59-69)%. Spironolactone reduced LAVi by -1.1 (-2.0 to -0.1) ml/m² (p = 0.03); LVMi by -3.6 (-6.4 to -0.8) g/m² (p = 0.01); IVS thickness by -0.2 (-0.3 to -0.1) mm (p = 0.01); E/e' ratio by -1.3 (-2.4 to -0.2) (p = 0.02); and increased LVEF by 1.7 (0.8-2.6)% (p < 0.01). No treatment-by-study heterogeneity was found except for E/e' ratio with a larger effect in Aldo-DHF and TOPCAT (interaction p < 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

Spironolactone improved cardiac structure and function of patients with HFpEF.

Impact of Sacubitril/Valsartan Compared With Ramipril on Cardiac Structure and Function After Acute Myocardial Infarction: The PARADISE-MI Echocardiographic Substudy

BACKGROUND

Angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors attenuate left ventricular (LV) enlargement after acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Preclinical data suggest similar benefits with combined angiotensin receptor neprilysin inhibition, but human data are conflicting. The PARADISE-MI Echo Study (Prospective ARNI Versus ACE Inhibitor Trial to Determine Superiority in Reducing Heart Failure Events After Myocardial Infarction) tested the effect of sacubitril/valsartan compared with ramipril on LV function and adverse remodeling after high risk-AMI.

METHODS

In a prespecified substudy, 544 PARADISE-MI participants were enrolled in the Echo Study to undergo protocol echocardiography at randomization and after 8 months. Patients were randomized within 0.5 to 7 days of presentation with their index AMI to receive a target dose of sacubitril/valsartan 200 mg or ramipril 5 mg twice daily. Echocardiographic measures were performed at a core laboratory by investigators blinded to treatment assignment. The effect of treatment on change in echo measures was assessed with ANCOVA with adjustment for baseline value and enrollment region. The primary end points were change in LV ejection fraction (LVEF) and left atrial volume (LAV), and prespecified secondary end points included changes in LV end-diastolic and end-systolic volumes.

RESULTS

Mean age was 64±12 years; 26% were women; mean LVEF was 42±12%; and LAV was 49±17 mL. Of 544 enrolled patients, 457 (84%) had a follow-up echo at 8 months (228 taking sacubitril/valsartan, 229 taking ramipril). There was no significant difference in change in LVEF (P=0.79) or LAV (P =0.62) by treatment group. Patients randomized to sacubitril/valsartan demonstrated less increase in LV end-diastolic volume (P=0.025) and greater decline in LV mass index (P=0.037), increase in tissue Doppler e'lat (P=0.005), decrease in E/e'lat (P=0.045), and decrease in tricuspid regurgitation peak velocity (P=0.024) than patients randomized to ramipril. These differences remained significant after adjustment for differences in baseline characteristics. Baseline LVEF, LV end-diastolic volume, LV end-systolic volume, LV mass index, LAV, and Doppler-based diastolic indices were associated with risk of cardiovascular death or incident heart failure.

CONCLUSIONS

Treatment with sacubitril/valsartan compared with ramipril after AMI did not result in changes in LVEF or LAV at 8 months. Patients randomized to sacubitril/valsartan had less LV enlargement and greater improvement in filling pressure. Measures of LV size, systolic function, and diastolic properties were predictive of cardiovascular death and incident heart failure after AMI in this contemporary, well-treated cohort.

REGISTRATION

URL: https://www.

CLINICALTRIALS

gov; Unique identifier: NCT02924727.

The association between troponin level and mortality in patients admitted to hospital with acute stroke (NIHR Health Informatics Collaborative TROP-STROKE study)

Introduction

Acute stroke accounts for significant morbidity and mortality globally. The role of troponin for risk stratification in stroke is unclear.

Purpose

The aims of this study were to assess the relationship between peak troponin and mortality in patients with ischaemic stroke, haemorrhagic stroke, or subarachnoid haemorrhage and to compare this with the predictive value of first troponin or dynamic troponin change.

Methods

A retrospective cohort study was carried out using the National Institute for Health Research Health Informatics Collaborative Cardiovascular dataset of all consecutive patients who had a troponin measured at five hospitals between 2010 and 2017. Patients with at least one troponin measurement and a primary diagnosis of ischaemic stroke, haemorrhagic stroke or subarachnoid haemorrhage during a hospital admission were included. The main exposure variables were first and peak troponin, and dynamic troponin change, and the main outcome was all-cause mortality. Results were analysed using multivariable adjusted restricted cubic spline Cox regression. Survival analyses were adjusted for troponin assay, assay sensitivity (standard or highly sensitive), number of troponin measurements, age, sex, C-reactive protein level, white blood cell count, platelet count, haemoglobin, estimated glomerular filtration rate, angiography during admission, acute coronary syndrome during admission, and cardiovascular history (history of diabetes mellitus, myocardial infarction, heart failure, hypertension, stroke or atrial fibrillation). Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC) curves were used to assess the predictive value of each exposure variable.

Results

4,712 patients were included in the analysis (ischaemic stroke: 3,346; haemorrhagic stroke: 718; subarachnoid haemorrhage: 648). Peak troponin was above the upper limit of normal in 47.4% of ischaemic stroke patients, 52.8% of haemorrhagic stroke patients, and 57.1% of subarachnoid haemorrhage patients. Patients with elevated peak troponin were older and had more cardiovascular risk factors.

A direct positive relationship was seen between peak troponin level and mortality hazard ratio in all three stroke subtypes (Figure 1). This relationship was consistent when considering dynamic troponin fold change for ischaemic or haemorrhagic stroke. For all three stroke subtypes, there was no added predictive value of peak troponin or dynamic troponin change over first troponin in predicting mortality (Figure 2).

Conclusions

A positive peak troponin was associated with increased mortality in patients presenting with ischaemic stroke, haemorrhagic stroke, or subarachnoid haemorrhage. Overall, serial troponin measurements may not improve mortality prediction beyond a single measurement. These findings may have implications for risk stratification of patients with acute stroke syndromes.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Public grant(s) – National budget only. Main funding source(s): NIHR Imperial Biomedical Research Centre, as part of the NIHR Health Informatics Collaborative, and 2) British Heart Foundation

The prognostic significance of troponin level in patients with malignancy (NIHR Health Informatics Collaborative TROP-MALIGNANCY study)

Background

Cardiac troponin is commonly raised in patients with malignancy and may aid clinicians in risk prediction. The prognostic significance of raised troponin in these patients with known malignancies remains unclear.

Purpose

We sought to investigate the relation between troponin and mortality in a large, well characterised cohort of patients undergoing cardiac troponin testing with a concomitant malignancy.

Methods

A retrospective cohort study was carried out using the National Institute for Health Research Health Informatics Collaborative Cardiovascular dataset of all consecutive patients who had a troponin measured at five hospitals between 2010 and 2017. Patients with a primary inpatient diagnosis of malignancy who had at least one cTn measurement during their hospital stay were identified. Patients were classified into solid tumour or haematological malignancy subgroups. Survival analyses were performed using multivariate Cox regression analyses and Kaplan-Meier plots. Cox regression analyses were adjusted for age, gender, C-reactive protein, haemoglobin, platelet count, white cell count, acute coronary syndrome, diabetes mellitus, heart failure, chronic kidney disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, atrial fibrillation and angiography. The peak cTn level (highest level measured), standardised to the upper limit of normal (ULN), was used for all analyses.

Results

5571 patients undergoing troponin testing had a primary diagnosis of malignancy and comprised of twenty-one different cancer types. 4649 patients were diagnosed with solid tumours and 922 patients were diagnosed with haematological malignancies. Patients with raised troponin had a higher burden of cardiovascular comorbidities compared to patients with a troponin level below the ULN. The median follow-up in the cohort was 14 months (interquartile range 2–39 months). At 1-year follow-up, 2495 (42%) of patients died.

Figure 1 shows Kaplan-Meier plots for patients stratified by troponin level. Patients with a troponin level ≥1xULN had a higher risk of death compared to patients with a troponin level &lt;1xULN (Figure 1A). A similar trend was shown in cancer subtypes (Figure 1B, C). Raised troponin was an independent predictor of mortality in all patients with malignancy (adjusted hazard ratio 1.66, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.52–1.81), in solid tumours (adjusted hazard ratio 1.63, 95% CI 1.48–1.81) and in haematological malignancy (adjusted hazard ratio 1.75, 95% CI 1.44 to 2.13) when compared to patients with a troponin level &lt;1xULN.

Conclusion

A raised troponin was associated with an increased mortality risk in patients with malignancy regardless of cancer subtype. Stratification of mortality risk using troponin may help guide clinicians in making management decisions for patients with malignancy.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Public grant(s) – National budget only. Main funding source(s): NIHR Imperial Biomedical Research Centre, as part of the NIHR Health Informatics Collaborative, and 2) British Heart Foundation

Developing informatics infrastructure to curate datasets using electronic health record data from five hospitals for translational cardiovascular research

Introduction

It has been challenging for researchers to access granular electronic health record (EHR) data at scale. One emerging prospect is to use big data to traverse the translational spectrum from an early discovery phase to a later implementation phase.

Purpose

To create a research-ready dataset to support translational research in cardiovascular medicine, using routinely-collected EHR data from multiple hospitals. As an early discovery phase study, we estimated the effect of invasive versus non-invasive management on the survival of patients with non-ST elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) aged 80 years or older (SENIOR-NSTEMI Study). As a later implementation phase study, we determined the relationship between the full spectrum of troponin level and mortality in patients in whom troponin testing was performed for clinical purposes (TROP-RISK Study).

Methods

Using Microsoft SQL we developed a dataset of 257948 consecutive patients who had a troponin measured between 2010 and 2017 at five hospitals. We extracted phenotypically detailed data, including demographics, blood tests, procedural data, and survival status.

For the SENIOR-NSTEMI Study, eligible patients were 80 years or older who were diagnosed with NSTEMI. We estimated mortality hazard ratios comparing invasive with non-invasive management. For the TROP-RISK Study, we modelled the relation between peak troponin level and all-cause mortality using multivariable adjusted restricted cubic spline Cox regression analyses.

Results

For the SENIOR-NSTEMI Study, 1500 patients with NSTEMI were included who had a median age of 86 (interquartile range (IQR) 82–89) years of whom (845 [56%]) received non-invasive management. During a median follow-up of 3 (IQR 1.2–4.8) years, the adjusted cumulative five-year mortality was 36% in the invasive and 55% in the non-invasive group (hazard ratio 0.68, 95% confidence interval 0.55–0.84).

For the TROP-RISK Study, during a median follow-up of 1198 days (IQR 514–1866 days), 55850 (21.7%) deaths occurred. There was an unexpected inverted U-shaped relation between troponin level and mortality in acute coronary syndrome (ACS) patients (n=120049) (Figure 1A). The paradoxical decline in mortality at very high troponin levels may be driven in part by the changing case mix as troponin levels increase; a higher proportion of patients with very high troponin levels received invasive management (Figure 1B).

Conclusion

Routine EHR data can be aggregated across multiple sites to create highly granular datasets for research. The SENIOR-NSTEMI Study showed a survival advantage of invasive compared with non-invasive management of elderly patients with NSTEMI, who were underrepresented in previous trials. The inverted U-shaped relationship between troponin and mortality in ACS patients in the TROP-RISK Study demonstrates that assembling sufficiently large datasets can cast light on patterns of disease that are impossible to adequately define in single centre studies.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Public grant(s) – National budget only. Main funding source(s): 1) NIHR Imperial Biomedical Research Centre, as part of the NIHR Health Informatics Collaborative, and 2) British Heart Foundation