Cardiovascular disease burden in the Middle East and North Africa region

INTRODUCTION

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains the leading cause of death globally, including the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. However, limited research has been conducted on the burden of CVD in this region. Our study aims to investigate the burden of CVD and related risk factors in the MENA.

METHODS

We used data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 to examine CVD prevalence in 21 MENA countries. Prevalence and mortality were analyzed using Bayesian regression tools, demographic methods, and mortality-to-incidence ratios. Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were calculated, and risk factors were evaluated under the GBD's comparative risk assessment framework.

RESULTS

Between 1990 and 2019, CVD raw accounts in the MENA increased by 140.9%, while age standardized prevalence slightly decreased (-1.3%). CVD raw mortality counts rose by 78.3%, but age standardized death rates fell by 28%. Ischemic heart disease remained the most prevalent condition, with higher rates in men, while women had higher rates of CVA. Age standardized DALYs decreased by 32.54%. DALY rates varied across countries and were consistently higher in males. Leading risk factors included hypertension, high LDL-C, dietary risks, and elevated BMI.  The countries with the three highest DALYs in 2019 were Afghanistan, Egypt, and Yemen.

CONCLUSIONS

While strides have been made in lessening the CVD burden in the MENA region, the toll on mortality and morbidity, particularly from ischemic heart disease, remains significant. Country-specific variations call for tailored interventions addressing socio-economic factors, healthcare infrastructure, and political stability.

Association of Segment-Specific Pulse Wave Velocity With Vascular Calcification: The ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities) Study

BACKGROUND

Pulse wave velocity (PWV) is a noninvasive measure of arterial stiffness and predictor of cardiovascular disease. However, the association between PWV and vascular calcification across different vascular beds has not been fully investigated. This study aimed to quantify the association between PWV and multiterritory calcification and to explore whether PWV can identify individuals with vascular calcification beyond traditional risk factors.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Among 1351 older adults (mean age, 79.2 years [SD, 4.1]) from the ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities) study, we measured segment-specific PWVs: heart-carotid, heart-femoral, carotid-femoral, heart-ankle, brachial-ankle, and femoral-ankle. Dependent variables were high calcium score (≥75th percentile of Agatston score) across different vascular beds: coronary arteries, aortic valve ring, aortic valve, mitral valve, ascending aorta, and descending aorta. Quartiles of carotid-femoral, heart-femoral, heart-ankle, and brachial-ankle PWV were significantly associated with coronary artery calcium (eg, adjusted odds ratio [OR] for the highest versus lowest quartile of carotid-femoral PWV, 1.84 [95% CI, 1.24-2.74]). Overall, PWVs were most strongly associated with descending aorta calcification, with significant results for carotid-femoral, heart-femoral, heart-ankle, and brachial-ankle PWV (eg, adjusted OR for the highest versus lowest quartile of carotid-femoral PWV, 3.99 [95% CI, 2.61-6.17]). In contrast, femoral-ankle PWV was inversely associated with descending aorta calcification. Some PWVs improved the discrimination of coronary artery calcium and descending aorta calcification beyond traditional risk factors.

CONCLUSIONS

The associations of PWV with vascular calcification varied substantially across segments, with descending aorta calcification most closely linked to PWVs. Our study suggests that some PWVs, especially carotid-femoral PWV, are helpful to identify individuals with coronary artery calcium and descending aorta calcification.

Regular aspirin use among a sample of American Indians/Alaskan Natives in the Upper Midwest region of the United States

Despite high prevalence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and CVD risk factors among American Indian or Alaska Native adults (AI/AN), there is little information on aspirin use in this population. This survey-based study seeks to understand prevalence of aspirin use in a sample of AI/AN adults in the Upper Midwestern United States. In-person and telephone based surveys were conducted querying self-reported CVD and CVD risk factors, aspirin use, and aspirin related discussion with clinicians. A total of 237 AI/AN participants were included: mean age (SD) was 60.8 (8.4) years; 143 (60 %) were women; 59 (25 %) reported CVD history. CVD risk factors were common particularly smoking (37 %) and diabetes (37 %). Aspirin use was much higher among those with CVD (secondary prevention, 76 %) than those without (primary prevention, 33 %). Primary prevention aspirin use was significantly associated with age and all CVD risk factors in unadjusted analyses. After adjustment for demographics and CVD risk factors, only age (aRR 1.13 per 5 years, 95 % CI 1.02, 1.25) and diabetes (aRR 2.44, 95 % CI 1.52, 3.92) remained significantly associated with aspirin. Regardless of CVD status, a higher proportion of those taking aspirin reported a conversation about aspirin with their doctor compared to those not taking aspirin. Among participants with no CVD, those who had such a conversation were 2.6 times more likely to use aspirin than those who did not have a conversation (aRR 2.64, 95 % CI 1.58, 4.44). The findings of this study emphasize the importance of the patient-provider relationship for preventive therapy.

Association of Smokeless Tobacco Use With Incident Peripheral Artery Disease: Results From the Atherosclerotic Risk in Communities Study

INTRODUCTION

Cigarette smoking is associated with an increased risk for peripheral artery disease. It is unknown whether smokeless tobacco, a noncombustible form of tobacco exposure, is also associated with increased peripheral artery disease risk. Using data from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study, we tested the hypothesis that the use of smokeless tobacco is associated with a higher risk of developing peripheral artery disease.

METHODS

Participants with peripheral artery disease at baseline were excluded. Smokeless tobacco use was assessed 3 times from 1987 to 1995, and peripheral artery disease events accrued from 1987 to 2018. Smokeless tobacco was modeled as a time-dependent exposure in Cox regression models. Analyses were completed in 2021.

RESULTS

This study included 14,344 participants with a baseline mean (SD) age of 54.1 (5.7) years; 54.8% were female, and 26.4% were Black. There were 635 incident peripheral artery disease events over a median follow-up of 27.6 years (maximum of 32.1 years). The peripheral artery disease incidence rate was 4.44 per 1,000 person-years among those who used smokeless tobacco compared with 1.74 per 1,000 person-years for those who did not. The hazard ratio for current versus never smokeless tobacco use was 1.94 (95% CI=1.31, 2.88) after adjustment for sociodemographic characteristics and cigarette smoking. Peripheral artery disease incidence rate among those currently using smokeless tobacco was similar to that of those who currently smoke cigarette (3.39 per 1,000 person-years).

CONCLUSIONS

Current smokeless tobacco use was associated with high rates of peripheral artery disease, similar to cigarette smoking. Future research should evaluate the effect of cessation of noncombustible tobacco on incident peripheral artery disease.

Comparative Risk of Hospitalized Bleeding of P2Y12 Inhibitors for Secondary Prophylaxis in Acute Coronary Syndrome After Percutaneous Coronary Intervention

In closely monitored randomized controlled trials (RCTs), newer P2Y12 agents (ticagrelor and prasugrel) reduced cardiovascular outcomes compared with clopidogrel following percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) in acute coronary syndrome. However, these RCTs indicated a higher bleeding risk with these newer agents. This study evaluated the comparative safety of each P2Y12 inhibitor on hospitalizations due to major bleeding in a real-world population. This retrospective, propensity score-matched (PSM) cohort study utilized the IBM MarketScan database over 6 years (2013-2018) to identify incident users of P2Y12 inhibitors with age ≥18 years. The primary safety outcome was hospitalization due to any major bleeding event including gastrointestinal, intracranial, and other serious forms of bleeding. In pairwise comparisons using Cox-proportional hazards models, ticagrelor, prasugrel, and clopidogrel users were compared for the primary safety outcome at 30, 90, and 180 days following the first prescription of P2Y12 inhibitor after PCI. There were 21,719 (ticagrelor vs. clopidogrel), 11,513 (prasugrel vs. clopidogrel), and 11,065 (prasugrel vs. ticagrelor) PSM pairs. Overall, the risk of major bleeding was similar for all P2Y12 inhibitors. Hospitalization for major bleeding was generally lower among ticagrelor users vs. clopidogrel and higher among prasugrel users compared with clopidogrel. Importantly, a 66% higher risk of major bleeding at 90 days is suggested with prasugrel compared with clopidogrel (hazard ratio 1.66; 95% confidence interval, 1.11-2.48). This study indicated a higher short-term bleeding risk with prasugrel compared with clopidogrel, which concurs with the results of RCTs.

Comparative Effectiveness of Ticagrelor, Prasugrel, and Clopidogrel for Secondary Prophylaxis in Acute Coronary Syndrome: A Propensity Score-Matched Cohort Study

Comparative effectiveness evaluation of newer P2Y12 inhibitors (prasugrel and ticagrelor) compared with clopidogrel after acute coronary syndrome (ACS) is limited in real-world US populations. The objective of this study was to evaluate cardiovascular events based on ticagrelor, prasugrel, and clopidogrel use in a real-world patient setting. This retrospective cohort study used the IBM MarketScan database (January 1, 2013, to December 31, 2018) to create three propensity score-matched pairs: ticagrelor vs. clopidogrel (N = 21,719), prasugrel vs. clopidogrel (N = 11,513), and prasugrel vs. ticagrelor (N = 11,065). The primary outcome was a composite of myocardial ischemia, unstable angina, stroke, and heart failure hospitalization. These groups were compared in a time-to-event analysis for the primary outcome at 30, 90, and 180 days following P2Y12 inhibitors initiation after percutaneous coronary intervention. Compared with clopidogrel, ticagrelor use suggested a 10% reduction in the primary outcome at 90 days (hazard ratio (HR): 0.90, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.82-0.99). There were no differences for all other matched pairs or follow-up combinations. In the subgroup analysis of females, the results suggested a risk reduction of 27% for prasugrel at 30 days (HR: 0.73, 95% CI: 0.53-1.00) and 17% for ticagrelor at 90 days (HR: 0.83, 95% CI: 0.70-0.98) when compared with clopidogrel. Among patients treated with bare-metal stents, the results suggested that prasugrel vs. ticagrelor was associated with a 55% and 33% reduced risk for the primary outcome at 30 days and 180 days, respectively. With limited evidence in the United States comparing these drugs, this study helps inform clinicians when choosing P2Y12 inhibitors after ACS.

Community-based participatory research application of an artificial intelligence-enhanced electrocardiogram for cardiovascular disease screening: A FAITH! Trial ancillary study

Objective

With the emergence of artificial intelligence (AI)-based health interventions, systemic racism remains a concern as these advancements are frequently developed without race-specific data analysis or validation. To evaluate the potential utility of an AI-based cardiovascular diseases (CVD) screening tool in an under-resourced African-American cohort, we reviewed the AI-enhanced electrocardiogram (ECG) data of participants enrolled in a community-based clinical trial as a proof-of-concept ancillary study for community-based screening.

Methods

Enrollees completed cardiovascular testing including standard 12-lead ECG and a limited echocardiogram (TTE). All ECGs were analyzed using previously published institution-based AI algorithms. AI-ECG predictions were generated for age, sex, and decreased left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF). Diagnostic accuracy of the AI-ECG for decreased LVEF and sex was quantified using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Correlation between actual age and AI-ECG predicted age was assessed using Pearson correlation coefficients.

Results

Fifty-four participants completed both an ECG and TTE (mean age 55 years [range 31-87 years]; 66.7% female). All participants were in sinus rhythm, and the median LVEF of the cohort was 60-65%. The AI-ECG for decreased LVEF demonstrated excellent performance with an AUC of 0.892 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.708-1); sensitivity=50% (95% CI 9.5-90.5%; n=1/2) and specificity=96% (95% CI 86.8-98.9%; n=49/51). The AI-ECG for participant sex demonstrated similar performance with AUC of 0.944 (95% CI 0.891-0.998); sensitivity=100% (95% CI 82.4-100.0%; n=18/18) and specificity=77.8% (95% CI 61.9-88.3%; n=28/36). The AI-ECG predicted mean age was 55 years (range 26.9-72.6 years) with a strong correlation to actual age (R=0.769; p<0.001).

Conclusion

Our analyses of previously developed AI-ECG algorithms for prediction of age, sex, and decreased LVEF demonstrated reliable performance in this community-based, African-American cohort. This novel, community-centric delivery of AI could provide valuable screening resources and appropriate referrals for early detection of highly-morbid CVD for under-resourced patient populations.

Association of Right Ventricular Afterload With Atrial Fibrillation Risk in Older Adults: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study

BACKGROUND

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is widely perceived to originate from the left atrium (LA). Whether increases in right ventricular (RV) afterload in older adults play an etiological role in AF genesis independent of LA and left ventricular (LV) remodeling is unknown.

RESEARCH QUESTION

Is higher RV afterload associated with greater AF risk independent of LA and LV remodeling?

STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS

In this observational prospective study, we included 2,246 community-dwelling older adults (mean age, 75 years) without known cardiovascular disease, with LV ejection fraction > 50%, LA volume index < 34 mL/m2, and E/e' ratio < 14 and a measurable functional tricuspid regurgitation jet velocity. From 2D-echocardiograms, we estimated pulmonary artery systolic pressure (PASP) and pulmonary vascular resistance (PVR). We ascertained incident AF (through 2018) from hospital discharge codes and death certificates. We estimated hazard ratios (HR) by Cox regression.

RESULTS

During follow-up (median, 6.3 years; interquartile interval, 5.5-6.9 years), 215 participants developed AF. AF risk was significantly higher in the third (vs first) tertile of PASP (HR, 1.65; 95% CI, 1.08-2.54) and PVR (HR, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.00-2.08) independent of LA and LV structure and function, heart rate, BMI, prevalent sleep apnea, systemic BP, antihypertensive medications, and lung, kidney, and thyroid function. These associations persisted after further exclusion of participants with tricuspid regurgitation jet velocity > 2.8 m/s and lateral and septal mitral annular velocity above age- and sex-specific reference limits.

INTERPRETATION

In older adults, higher RV afterload is associated with greater AF risk independent of LA and LV remodeling. Future research should focus on confirming this novel association and elucidate underlying mechanisms.

Association of Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factors With Sociodemographic Characteristics and Health Beliefs Among a Community-Based Sample of African American Adults in Minnesota

OBJECTIVE

To assess cardiovascular disease (CVD) and CVD risk factors and their association with sociodemographic characteristics and health beliefs among African American (AA) adults in Minnesota.

METHODS

A cross-sectional analysis was conducted of a community-based sample of AA adults enrolled in the Minnesota Heart Health Program Ask About Aspirin study from May 2019 to September 2019. Sociodemographic characteristics, health beliefs, and self-reported CVD and CVD risk factors were collected. Prevalence ratio (PR) estimates were calculated using Poisson regression modeling to assess the association between participants' characteristics and age- and sex-adjusted CVD risk factors.

RESULTS

The sample included 644 individuals (64% [412] women) with a mean age of 61 years. Risk factors for CVD were common: hypertension (67% [434]), hyperlipidemia (47% [301]), diabetes (34% [219]), and current cigarette smoking (25% [163]); 19% (119) had CVD. Those with greater perceived CVD risk had a higher likelihood of prevalent hyperlipidemia (PR, 1.34; 95% CI, 1.14 to 1.57), diabetes (PR, 1.61; 95% CI, 1.30 to 1.98), and CVD (PR 1.61; 95% CI, 1.16 to 2.23) compared with those with lower perceived risk. Trust in health care provider was high (83% [535]) but was not associated with CVD or CVD risk factors.

CONCLUSION

In this community sample of AAs in Minnesota, CVD risk factors were high, as was trust in health care providers. Those with greater CVD risk perceptions had higher CVD prevalence. Consideration of sociodemographic and psychosocial influences on CVD and CVD risk factors could inform development of effective cardiovascular health promotion interventions in the AA Minnesota community.

Variable and Severe Phenotypic Expression of the "Lebanese Allele" in Two Sisters with Familial Hypercholesterolemia

The "Lebanese allele" {LDLR c.2043 C>A (p.cys681X)} is a nonsense mutation in the low-density lipoprotein receptor (LDLR) gene that results in a truncated non-functioning LDLR protein. We report two sisters of Lebanese descent who presented with familial hypercholesterolemia (FH) and were both heterozygous for the Lebanese allele, but had very distinct LDL-C levels and clinical phenotypes. Whereas one of the sisters had LDL-C in the expected range of Heterozygous FH (HeFH) with the Lebanese allele (LDL-C of 292 mg/dl), the other sister had a more severe LDL-C phenotype in the Homozygous FH (HoFH) range (LDL-C of 520 mg/dl) along with manifest atherosclerosis. Surprisingly, she did not demonstrate a compound heterozygote or double heterozygote status. We discuss different mechanisms that are purported to play a role in modifying the phenotype of FH, including different variants and polygenic modifiers. HeFH patients with the Lebanese allele can have a wide spectrum of LDL-C levels that range from the typical heterozygous to homozygous phenotypes.

Low-dose aspirin for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease: Trends in use patterns among African American adults in Minnesota, 2015-2019

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) disproportionately affects African Americans. Aspirin has long been recommended to reduce cardiovascular events. However, national guideline changes in 2016 limited the aspirin recommended population and several clinical trials questioning the utility of primary prevention aspirin were published in 2018. In light of the recent guidelines and study findings, we investigated primary prevention aspirin use among urban African American adults. Using three cross-sectional surveys, we collected data from self-identified African Americans with no CVD in 2015, 2017 and 2019, querying information on CVD risk factors, health behaviors and beliefs, and aspirin use. Poisson regression modeling was used to estimate age- and risk-factor adjusted aspirin prevalence, trends and associations. A total of 1491 African Americans adults, ages 45-79, were included in this analysis; 61% were women. There was no change in age- and risk factor-adjusted aspirin use over the 3 surveys for women (37%, 34% and 35% respectively) or men (27%, 25%, 30% respectively). However, fewer participants believed aspirin was helpful in 2019 compared to 2015-75% versus 84% (p < 0.001). Aspirin discussions with a health care practitioner were highly associated with aspirin use (adjusted RR 2.97, 95% CI 2.49-3.54) and aspirin use was 2.56 times higher (adjusted RR 95% CI 2.17-3.03) in respondents who agreed that people close to them thought they should take aspirin compared with those who disagreed or did not know. Despite major changes in national guidelines, overall primary prevention aspirin use did not significantly change in these African American samples from 2015 to 2019.

Psychosocial factors and subsequent risk of hospitalizations with peripheral artery disease: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Psychosocial factors are associated with increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, associations with peripheral artery disease (PAD) remain uncharacterized. We aimed to compare associations of psychosocial factors with the risk of PAD and two other major atherosclerotic CVD: coronary heart disease (CHD) and ischemic stroke, in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study.

METHODS

In 11,104 participants (mean age 56.7 [SD 5.7] years) without a clinical history of PAD and CHD/stroke at baseline (1990-1992), we evaluated four psychosocial domains: depressive/fatigue symptoms by the Maastricht Questionnaire, social support by the Interpersonal Evaluation List, social networks by the Lubben Scale, and trait anger by the Spielberger Scale. PAD was defined as hospitalizations with diagnosis or related procedures. CHD included adjudicated coronary heart disease and stroke included ischemic stroke.

RESULTS

We observed 397 PAD and 1940 CHD/stroke events during a median follow-up of 23.1 years. Higher depressive/fatigue symptoms and less social support were significantly associated with incident PAD (adjusted hazard ratios for top vs. bottom quartile 1.65 [95%CI, 1.25-2.19] and 1.40 [1.05-1.87], respectively). When these factors were simultaneously modeled, only depressive/fatigue symptoms remained significant. Incident CHD/stroke was not associated with either of depressive/fatigue symptoms or social support. Social networks and trait anger were not independently associated with PAD or CHD/stroke.

CONCLUSIONS

Depressive/fatigue symptoms and social support (especially the former) were independently associated with the risk of hospitalizations with PAD but not CHD/stroke in the general population. Our results support the importance of depressive/fatigue symptoms in vascular health and suggest the need of including PAD when studying the impact of psychosocial factors on CVD.

A community-based group randomized trial to increase aspirin use for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease: Study protocol and baseline results for the "Ask About Aspirin" initiative

Background

USPSTF evidence-based recommendations for the use of low-dose aspirin for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease were published in 2009. We describe a statewide campaign using innovative methods to educate the public and health communities about appropriate aspirin use.

Methods/design

The "Ask About Aspirin" initiative is designed to lower the number of first heart attacks and strokes in the State of Minnesota by promoting the appropriate use of low dose aspirin. A health system intervention combined with an aspirin awareness media campaign will be evaluated in a pragmatic group randomized controlled trial including 267 primary care clinics within 84 health systems over a four year period. Matched pairs of geographic territories will be randomized to intervention (12 territories) or control (12 territories). The primary outcome of appropriate aspirin use will be measured at the individual level, by community-based telephone surveys of 100 participants in each of the 24 geographically determined clusters.

Discussion

We briefly describe the rationale for the interventions being studied, as well as the major design choices. Rigorous research designs such as the one described here are necessary to determine whether evidence-based recommendations can be effectively disseminated in multiple health systems.

Trial registration

ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT02607917.

Aspirin Use and Misuse for the Primary Prevention of Cardiovascular Diseases

INTRODUCTION

Daily aspirin use for primary cardiovascular disease prevention is common among adults. Numerous clinical trials observe reduced cardiovascular disease with regular low-dose aspirin. The U.S. Preventive Services Task Force in 2016 published guidelines for aspirin use, but controversy exists about the side effects, and overuse or underuse may be common despite the guidelines. Using the Task Force recommendations, this paper describes the prevalence of appropriate aspirin use and physician advice in a population sample.

METHODS

A random sample of men and women (aged 50-69 years) living in the Upper Midwest in 2017-2018 were surveyed, collecting demographic data, health history, and aspirin use. Appropriate primary prevention with aspirin was defined as having ≥10% cardiovascular disease risk (hypertension, hyperlipidemia, diabetes, smoking) with daily or every other day aspirin use. Those with prevalent cardiovascular disease were labeled as secondary prevention.

RESULTS

A total of 1,352 adults were surveyed (697 women, 655 men). The criteria for secondary prevention were fulfilled in 188 participants, and these were eliminated from the analysis. In the remaining group, aspirin was indicated in 32.9% (383 of 1,164). Among those, 46.0% (176 of 383) were appropriate users, and 54.0% (207 of 383) were nonusers despite indications. Overuse, where aspirin is not indicated, was common at 26.9% (210 of 781). Discussion with a physician, although reported in 29% of subjects, was associated with some improvement in the appropriate use but also with overuse and underuse.

CONCLUSIONS

Aspirin use for primary cardiovascular disease prevention is common. However, many adults are medicating without indication (overuse) or are not using aspirin despite guidelines (underuse).

Aspirin Use for Cardiovascular Disease Prevention in an African American Population: Prevalence and Associations with Health Behavior Beliefs

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in the United States, disproportionately affecting African Americans. Aspirin is an effective, low cost option to reduce cardiovascular events. This study sought to describe the use of aspirin for CVD prevention in African Americans and evaluate associations with demographics, cardiovascular risk factors and health behaviors and beliefs. A total of 684 African Americans adults ages 45-79 years completed surveys and were included in this analysis. Proportions of aspirin use were stratified by primary and secondary prevention and by number of CVD risk factors in the primary prevention population. Logistic regression was used to evaluate associations with aspirin use. Secondary prevention aspirin use was 62%. Primary prevention aspirin use was 32% overall and increased to 54% in those with > 2 CVD risk factors. A history of diabetes [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 3.42, 95% CI 2.18-5.35] and hypertension (aOR 2.25, 95% CI 1.39-3.65) were strongly associated with primary prevention aspirin use, but a conversation with a health care provider was even stronger (aOR 6.41, 95% CI 4.07-10.08). Participants who answered positively to statements about people similar to them taking aspirin or that close contacts think they should take aspirin, were much more likely to take aspirin (aOR 4.80; 95% CI 2.58-8.93 and aOR 7.45; 95% CI 4.70-11.79 respectively). These findings support a hypothesis that aspirin use may increase by encouraging conversations with health care providers and creating a supportive social environment for aspirin use. Further studies need to be done to test this hypothesis.

Aspirin Use and Awareness for Cardiovascular Disease Prevention Among Hispanics: Prevalence and Associations with Health Behavior Beliefs

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) persists as the leading cause of death and disability in many Americans including Hispanics. Primary prevention for CVD may be achieved through regular aspirin use in high risk individuals. This study examined regular aspirin use and specific attitudes and social norms toward CVD and aspirin use within an urban Hispanic population in Minnesota. A sample of primary prevention Hispanics aged 45-79 years were surveyed about CVD history and risk factors, aspirin use, demographic characteristics, and health beliefs and social norms in relation to CVD and aspirin. Relative risk estimation using Poisson regression with robust error variance was used to examine associations with aspirin use. In this sample of 152 Hispanics (55% women), the mean age was 53 years, 70% had a regular healthcare provider, and 22% used aspirin. Aspirin discussions with a regular healthcare provider were strongly associated with aspirin use (adjusted risk ratio 3.02, 95% CI 1.20-7.60). There was a positive association between health beliefs and social norms that affirm preventive behaviors and aspirin use (adjusted linear risk ratio 1.23, 95% CI 1.04-1.45) while uncertainty about the role of aspirin for individual use and in the community was negatively associated with aspirin use (adjusted linear risk ratio 0.85, 95% CI 0.70-1.03). This growing population may benefit from health education about CVD risk and the role of aspirin in prevention.

Estimation of Cardiovascular Risk from Self-Reported Knowledge of Risk Factors: Insights from the Minnesota Heart Survey

Background

Cost-effective primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) relies on accuracy of risk assessment. Current risk scores require clinical and laboratory measures, are expensive and are often difficult to apply in the population setting.

Objective

This study sought to estimate CVD risk from individuals’ knowledge of their own CVD risk factors and compare it to the risk calculated from measured risk factors.

Methods

Using the ACC/AHA Pooled Cohort Risk Equations (PCE), we calculated 10-year CVD risk for 9856 primary prevention individuals aged 40–79 in the Minnesota Heart Survey (MHS). Using log-linear regression models, we estimated PCE risk from the individual’s self-reported knowledge of four dichotomous risk factors: hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, diabetes, and smoking. Age was included in all models, and models were developed separately in women and men. Model performance was assessed internally using leave-one-out cross-validation.

Results

The median measured PCE CVD risk in women was 2.1% (IQR: 0.8–5.6%), and in men was 6.3% (3.1–13.0%). Using the newly developed equations, the median estimated risk was 2.2% (0.9–5.8%) in women, and 6.9% (3.2–13.1%) in men. Using a threshold of 7.5% to categorize low and high risk, the novel risk calculation gave an accuracy of 95% for women and 87% for men compared to the measured PCE risk. The negative predictive value was 97% for women and 91% in men.

Conclusion

Self-reported knowledge of risk may be useful in the identification of individuals at low risk for CV events, however, should always be followed up with measurement of risk factors if symptoms or history suggest CVD.

Contemporary Primary Prevention Aspirin Use by Cardiovascular Disease Risk: Impact of US Preventive Services Task Force Recommendations, 2007-2015: A Serial, Cross-sectional Study

BACKGROUND

No previous study has evaluated the impact of past US Preventive Services Task Force statements on primary prevention (PP) aspirin use in a primary care setting. The aim of this study was to evaluate temporal changes in PP aspirin use in a primary care population, stratifying patients by their 10-year global cardiovascular disease risk, in response to the 2009 statement.

METHODS AND RESULTS

This study estimated biannual aspirin use prevalence using electronic health record data from primary care clinics within the Fairview Health System (Minnesota) from 2007 to 2015. A total of 94 270 patient encounters had complete data to estimate a 10-year cardiovascular disease risk score using the 2013 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association global risk estimator. Patients were stratified into low- (<10%), intermediate- (10-20%), and high- (≥20%) risk groups. Over the 9-year period, PP aspirin use averaged 43%. When stratified by low, intermediate and high risk, average PP aspirin use was 41%, 63%, and 73%, respectively. Average PP aspirin use decreased after the publication of the 2009 US Preventive Services Task Force recommendation statement: from 45% to 40% in the low-risk group; from 66% to 62% in the intermediate-risk group; and from 76% to 73% in the high-risk group, before and after the guideline.

CONCLUSIONS

Publication of the 2009 US Preventive Services Task Force recommendation was not associated with an increase in aspirin use. High risk PP patients utilized aspirin at high rates. Patients at intermediate risk were less intensively treated, and patients at low risk used aspirin at relatively high rates. These data may inform future aspirin guideline dissemination.

Abstract 385: The Impact of Aspirin Primary Prevention Treatment Guidelines: Temporal Trends in Aspirin Use for Primary vs Secondary Prevention, 2005-2013

Background: Current national prevention guidelines recommend use of low dose aspirin (ASA) for both the primary prevention (PP) and secondary prevention (SP) of heart attack and stroke. ASA use for SP has been documented to have increased over the past decade. Since the publication of the 2009 United States Preventative Services Task Force (USPSTF) recommendations for PP ASA use, data describing the trends in PP ASA use in primary care are sparse. This study evaluates trends in PP and SP ASA use in primary care clinics from a large, regional health system over an 8 year period (2005-2013).

Methods: A bi-annual cross-sectional electronic medical record (EMR) chart extraction was performed from 2005 to 2013 to evaluate documented ASA use for all patient encounters within primary care clinics in the Fairview Health System (Minnesota). Primary prevention candidates were defined as individuals within the USPSTF guideline age and sex target populations (men aged 45-79, and women aged 55-79 years) with no documented history of an atherosclerotic syndrome or contraindication to ASA use (aspirin allergy, peptic ulcer disease, or concurrent antithrombotic therapy). Secondary prevention candidates were defined as adults within the same age and gender range with a history of coronary artery disease, peripheral artery disease or ischemic stroke. The ASA treatment to candidacy ratio was calculated for the PP and SP populations.

Results: Over 225,000 unique encounters at 66 primary care clinics were analyzed over the 8 year study period. The PP population was younger (60.4±8.7 vs. 66.2±8.3 years), with lower prevalence of hypertension (49 vs. 79%), hyperlipidemia (54 vs. 84%), and diabetes (17 vs. 35%) compared to the SP cohort. The mean SP ASA use of 86% was high, concordant with national trends, and did not change over this period. In contrast, PP ASA average use was 44% with no increase after publication of the 2009 USPSTF guideline. Documented contraindications to ASA use were uncommon (ASA allergy, 2.1 and 2.8%; peptic ulcer disease, 3.2 and 7.2%; and use of other antithrombotic medications, 4.6 and 32.6% in PP and SP populations respectively).

Conclusion: Secondary prevention ASA use in primary care settings remains high, but ASA use for primary prevention of cardiovascular events is low. Despite creation of national guidelines, aspirin use in the PP population is half the rate of ASA use for secondary prevention. Additional methods to safely and effectively disseminate this primary prevention aspirin use recommendation, targeting both the public and health care providers, are warranted.