Extreme Climatic Events Alter Aquatic Food Webs

Meta-analysis reveals less sensitivity of non-native animals than natives to extreme weather worldwide

Extreme weather events (EWEs; for example, heatwaves, cold spells, storms, floods and droughts) and non-native species invasions are two major threats to global biodiversity and are increasing in both frequency and consequences. Here we synthesize 443 studies and apply multilevel mixed-effects metaregression analyses to compare the responses of 187 non-native and 1,852 native animal species across terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems to different types of EWE. Our results show that marine animals, regardless of whether they are non-native or native, are overall insensitive to EWEs, except for negative effects of heatwaves on native mollusks, corals and anemone. By contrast, terrestrial and freshwater non-native animals are only adversely affected by heatwaves and storms, respectively, whereas native animals negatively respond to heatwaves, cold spells and droughts in terrestrial ecosystems and are vulnerable to most EWEs except cold spells in freshwater ecosystems. On average, non-native animals displayed low abundance in terrestrial ecosystems, and decreased body condition and life history traits in freshwater ecosystems, whereas native animals displayed declines in body condition, life history traits, abundance, distribution and recovery in terrestrial ecosystems, and community structure in freshwater ecosystems. By identifying areas with high overlap between EWEs and EWE-tolerant non-native species, we also provide locations where native biodiversity might be adversely affected by their joint effects and where EWEs might facilitate the establishment and/or spread of non-native species under continuing global change.

Extreme weather events threaten biodiversity and functions of river ecosystems: evidence from a meta-analysis

Both gradual and extreme weather changes trigger complex ecological responses in river ecosystems. It is still unclear to what extent trend or event effects alter biodiversity and functioning in river ecosystems, adding considerable uncertainty to predictions of their future dynamics. Using a comprehensive database of 71 published studies, we show that event - but not trend - effects associated with extreme changes in water flow and temperature substantially reduce species richness. Furthermore, event effects - particularly those affecting hydrological dynamics - on biodiversity and primary productivity were twice as high as impacts due to gradual changes. The synthesis of the available evidence reveals that event effects induce regime shifts in river ecosystems, particularly affecting organisms such as invertebrates. Among extreme weather events, dryness associated with flow interruption caused the largest effects on biota and ecosystem functions in rivers. Effects on ecosystem functions (primary production, organic matter decomposition and respiration) were asymmetric, with only primary production exhibiting a negative response to extreme weather events. Our meta-analysis highlights the disproportionate impact of event effects on river biodiversity and ecosystem functions, with implications for the long-term conservation and management of river ecosystems. However, few studies were available from tropical areas, and our conclusions therefore remain largely limited to temperate river systems. Further efforts need to be directed to assemble evidence of extreme events on river biodiversity and functioning.

Integrating simulation models and statistical models using causal modelling principles to predict aquatic macroinvertebrate responses to climate change

Climate change is projected to threaten ecological communities through changes in temperature, rainfall, runoff patterns, and mediated changes in other environmental variables. Their combined effects are difficult to comprehend without the mathematical machinery of causal modelling. Using piecewise structural equation modelling, we aim to predict the responses of aquatic macroinvertebrate total abundance and richness to disturbances generated by climate change. Our approach involves integrating an existing hydroclimate-salinity model for the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia, into our recently developed statistical models for macroinvertebrates using long-term monitoring data on macroinvertebrates, water quality, climate, and hydrology, spanning 2,300 km of the Murray River. Our exercise demonstrates the potential of causal modelling for integrating data and models from different sources. As such, optimal use of valuable existing data and merits of previously developed models in the field can be made for exploring the effects of future climate change and management interventions.

Low flow and heatwaves alter ecosystem functioning in a stream mesocosm experiment

Climate change is expected to intensify the effect of environmental stressors on riverine ecosystems. Extreme events, such as low flow and heatwaves, could have profound consequences for stream ecosystem functioning, but research on the impact of these stressors and their interaction across multiple processes, remains scarce. Here, we report the results of a two-month stream mesocosm experiment testing the effect of low flow (66% water level reduction, without gravel exposure) and heatwaves (three 8-d episodes of +5 °C above ambient with 10-15 days recovery between each episode) on a suite of ecosystem processes (i.e. detrital decomposition, biofilm accrual, ecosystem metabolism and DOC quantity and quality). Low flow reduced whole system metabolism, suppressing the rates of gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (ER), but elevated DOC concentration. Overall, habitat contraction was the main driver of reduced ecosystem functioning in the low flow treatment. By contrast, heatwaves increased decomposition, algal accrual, and humic-like DOC, but reduced leaf decomposition efficiency. Net ecosystem production (NEP) generally decreased across the experiment but was most pronounced for low flow and heatwaves when occurring independently. Assessment of NEP responses to the three successive heatwave events revealed that responses later in the sequence were more reduced (i.e. more similar to controls), suggesting biofilm communities may acclimate to autumn heatwaves. However, when heatwaves co-occurred with low flow, a strong reduction in both ER and GPP was observed, suggesting increased microbial mortality and reduced acclimation. Our study reveals autumn heatwaves potentially elongate the growth season for primary producers and stimulate decomposers. With climate change, river ecosystems may become more heterotrophic, with faster processing of recalcitrant carbon. Further research is required to identify the impacts on higher trophic levels, meta-community dynamics and the potential for legacy effects generated by successive low flows and heatwaves.

Nationwide temporal variability of droughts in the Kingdom of Eswatini: 1981-2018

For adequate mitigation and adaptation measures, it is essential to have detailed analysis of droughts patterns. This study determined the i) occurrence and severity of droughts ii) drought recurrence frequencies and iii) drought trends across different agro-ecological zones in the Kingdom of Eswatini for the period 1981 to 2018. A Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) computed from long-term precipitation data measured from six meteorological stations was used to determine drought occurrence and severity. Python software (Version 3.6) was applied on the SPI values to predict the recurrence of drought events over time in years. The SPI showed that in the Highveld, 42% of the droughts were moderate, 32% were severe and the remaining 26%, which all occurred post 1980 were extreme (SPI -2.34 to -2.82). The Middleveld had an even proportion of drought categories (29-35%). The Lowveld recorded 62% of moderate, 8% severe and 30% extreme droughts of which 70% occurred post 2000. Moderate droughts were found to recur every 4-5 years while extreme droughts are expected every 13-21 years. These findings are essential for mitigation and adaptation measures geared towards the adverse effects of droughts.

Drought alters the trophic role of an opportunistic generalist in an aquatic ecosystem

Abiotic change can alter species interactions by modifying species' trophic roles, but this has not been well studied. Until now, bromeliad-dwelling tipulid larvae were thought to positively affect other macroinvertebrates via a facilitative processing chain. However, under drought, we found the opposite. We performed two microcosm experiments in which we factorially manipulated water level and predation by tipulids, and measured the effects on mosquito and chironomid larvae. The experiments differed in whether high water was contrasted with low or no water, allowing us to distinguish between the effects of desiccation stress (no water) and increased encounter rates due to compression of habitat or reductions in prey mobility (low and no water). We also included a caged tipulid treatment to measure any non-consumptive effects. As well as directly reducing prey survival, reductions in water level indirectly decreased chironomid and mosquito survival by altering the trophic role of tipulids. Our results suggest that increased encounter rates with prey led to tipulids becoming predatory under simulated drought, as tipulids consumed prey under both low and no water. When water level was high, tipulids exerted negative non-consumptive effects on prey survival. Because opportunistic predators are common throughout aquatic ecosystems, the effects of drought on the trophic roles of species may be widespread. Such restructuring of food webs should be considered when attempting to predict the ecological effects of environmental change.

River food webs: an integrative approach to bottom-up flow webs, top-down impact webs, and trophic position

The majority of food web studies are based on connectivity, top-down impacts, bottom-up flows, or trophic position (TP), and ecologists have argued for decades which is best. Rarely have any two been considered simultaneously. The present study uses a procedure that integrates the last three approaches based on taxon-specific secondary production and gut analyses. Ingestion flows are quantified to create a flow web and the same data are used to quantify TP for all taxa. An individual predator's impacts also are estimated using the ratio of its ingestion (I) of each prey to prey production (P) to create an I/P web. This procedure was applied to 41 invertebrate taxa inhabiting submerged woody habitat in a southeastern U.S. river. A complex flow web starting with five basal food resources had 462 flows >1 mg·m^-2 ·yr^-1 , providing far more information than a connectivity web. Total flows from basal resources to primary consumers/omnivores were dominated by allochthonous amorphous detritus and ranged from 1 to >50,000 mg·m^-2 ·yr^-1 . Most predator-prey flows were much lower (<50 mg·m^-2 ·yr^-1 ), but some were >1,000  mg·m^-2 ·yr^-1 . The I/P web showed that 83% of individual predator impacts were weak (<10%), whereas total predator impacts were often strong (e.g., 35% of prey sustained an impact >90%). Quantitative estimates of TP ranged from 2 to 3.7, contrasting sharply with seven integer-based trophic levels based on longest feeding chain. Traditional omnivores (TP = 2.4-2.9) played an important role by consuming more prey and exerting higher impacts on primary consumers than strict predators (TP ≥ 3). This study illustrates how simultaneous quantification of flow pathways, predator impacts, and TP together provide an integrated characterization of natural food webs.

Effects of an atypical drought on the benthic macroinvertebrate community in a tropical reservoir

Abstract Atypical drought events have increasingly occurred in Brazil over the last years due to global climate changes. However, their consequences on aquatic biota in reservoirs are poorly known. We tested the hypothesis that macroinvertebrate communities are negatively affected by atypical drought events, given the sensitivity of many taxa to environmental changes. We predicted that: (a) there would be changes in limnological and sediment parameters between a regular year and an atypical year, (b) abundance and richness of the genera of Chironomidae and of exotic species would be higher due to the enhanced ability of these organisms to adapt to changes in the physical environment, and (c) community structure metrics (i. richness; ii. % richness; iii. abundance; iv. % abundance) would be affected by disturbance indices (i. Buffer Disturbance Index-BDI; ii. Local Disturbance Index-LDI; iii. Integrated Disturbance Index-IDI) in both years. The study was carried out in the reservoir of the Nova Ponte Hydroelectric Power Plant, state of Minas Gerais, comparing two sampling periods: a regular climatological year (2010) and an atypical drought year (2014). A total of 40 sampling sites were defined along the shore of the reservoir, and types of land use in the surrounding area of each site were measured, as well as physical habitat conditions, sediments, and benthic macroinvertebrate communities. Sampling was performed at these sites in the end of the rainy season in both years. The intensity of anthropogenic modifications was assessed at local scale and in the areas (buffers) surrounding the sampling sites using quantitative disturbance indices. There were striking differences in limnological parameters and sediment characteristics between sampling periods. Taxonomic richness was significantly lower in the drought year. As opposed to our predictions, richness and abundance of Chironomidae and exotic species did not increase with the atypical drought event. Besides, most community structure metrics showed a significant relationship with disturbance indices only during the regular climatological year, thus indicating that the large-scale effects of water stress may override the conditions of local habitats and the surrounding landscape. Therefore, in addition to a correct political-environmental management of water resources at local-scale, which includes maintaining the water quality and the riparian and landscape integrity, addressing large-scale climate issues is required for the maintenance of the ecological integrity of tropical reservoirs.

The effects of pastoral intensification on the feeding interactions of generalist predators in streams

Land‐use change can alter trophic interactions with wide‐ranging functional consequences, yet the consequences for aquatic food webs have been little studied. In part, this may reflect the challenges of resolving the diets of aquatic organisms using classical gut contents analysis, especially for soft‐bodied prey. We used next‐generation sequencing to resolve prey use in nearly 400 individuals of two predatory invertebrates (the Caddisfly, Rhyacophila dorsalis, and the Stonefly Dinocras cephalotes) in streams draining land with increasingly intensive livestock farming. Rhyacophila dorsalis occurred in all streams, whereas D. cephalotes was restricted to low intensities, allowing us to test whether: (i) apparent sensitivity to agriculture in the latter species reflects a more specialized diet and (ii) diet in R. dorsalis varied between sites with and without D. cephalotes. DNA was extracted from dissected gut contents, amplified without blocking probes and sequenced using Ion Torrent technology. Both predators were generalists, consuming 30 prey taxa with a preference for taxa that were abundant in all streams or that increased with intensification. Where both predators were present, their diets were nearly identical, and R. dorsalis's diet was virtually unchanged in the absence of D. cephalotes. The loss of D. cephalotes from more intensive sites was probably due to physicochemical stressors, such as sedimentation, rather than to dietary specialization, although wider biotic factors (e.g., competition with other predatory taxa) could not be excluded. This study provides a uniquely detailed description of predator diets along a land‐use intensity gradient, offering new insights into how anthropogenic stressors affect stream communities.

Predicted rainfall changes disrupt trophic interactions in a tropical aquatic ecosystem

Changes in the distribution of rainfall and the occurrence of extreme rain events will alter the size and persistence of aquatic ecosystems. Such alterations may affect the structure of local aquatic communities in terms of species composition, and by altering species interactions. In many aquatic ecosystems, leaf litter sustains detrital food webs and could regulate the responses of communities to changes in rainfall. Few empirical studies have focused on how rainfall changes will affect aquatic communities and none have evaluated if basal resource diversity can increase resistance to such rainfall effects. In this study, we used water-holding terrestrial bromeliads, a tropical aquatic ecosystem, to test how predicted rainfall changes and litter diversity may affect community composition and trophic interactions. We used structural equation modeling to investigate the combined effects of rainfall changes and litter diversity on trophic interactions. We demonstrated that changes in rainfall disrupted trophic relationships, even though there were only minor direct effects on species abundance, richness, and community composition. Litter diversity was not able to reduce the impact of changes in rainfall on trophic interactions. We suggest that changes in rainfall can alter the way in which species interact with each other, decreasing the linkages among trophic groups. Such reductions in biotic interactions under climate change will have critical consequences for the functioning of tropical aquatic ecosystems.

FORUM: Ecological networks: the missing links in biomonitoring science

Monitoring anthropogenic impacts is essential for managing and conserving ecosystems, yet current biomonitoring approaches lack the tools required to deal with the effects of stressors on species and their interactions in complex natural systems.

Ecological networks (trophic or mutualistic) can offer new insights into ecosystem degradation, adding value to current taxonomically constrained schemes. We highlight some examples to show how new network approaches can be used to interpret ecological responses.

Synthesis and applications. Augmenting routine biomonitoring data with interaction data derived from the literature, complemented with ground‐truthed data from direct observations where feasible, allows us to begin to characterise large numbers of ecological networks across environmental gradients. This process can be accelerated by adopting emerging technologies and novel analytical approaches, enabling biomonitoring to move beyond simple pass/fail schemes and to address the many ecological responses that can only be understood from a network‐based perspective.

Augmenting routine biomonitoring data with interaction data derived from the literature, complemented with ground‐truthed data from direct observations where feasible, allows us to begin to characterise large numbers of ecological networks across environmental gradients. This process can be accelerated by adopting emerging technologies and novel analytical approaches, enabling biomonitoring to move beyond simple pass/fail schemes and to address the many ecological responses that can only be understood from a network‐based perspective.