Gasoline prices and their relationship to drunk-driving crashes

Choosing to drive from alcohol serving establishments (ASEs)

OBJECTIVE

The prevalence of Driving Under the Influence (DUI) of alcohol or drugs has become a prominent factor in the occurrence of severe road crashes worldwide. Driving often occurs after visiting, and presumably drinking, at Alcohol-Serving Establishments (ASEs), and is thus of interest as a possible source of DUI events.

METHODS

We apply statistical and machine learning models to the Victorian Integrated Survey of Travel and Activity (VISTA) to identify factors that contribute to driving in trips from ASEs in Australia's state of Victoria.

RESULTS

Our results highlight that approximately 10% of individuals who traveled to ASEs as car passengers switched to driving after leaving there. It was also observed that travel distance shorter than 1 km and activity duration between 3 and 4 h positively impacts the mode switching from car driver to other modes in ASEs trips. Further findings illustrate a decline in driving after midnight, with an increase in the use of public transport and taxis. Individuals prefer driving for long-distance ASEs trips and walking for short distances. Going home also increased the likelihood of driving, whereas engaging in other social activities did not. Longer stays at ASEs and leaving vehicles overnight reduce the propensity to drive, likely due to increased alcohol consumption during these times.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings suggest behavioral adjustments that can mitigate driving under the influence. Specifically, people may walk for short-distance trips and use public transport or taxis for longer ASEs trips.

Modelling the effects of fuel price changes on road traffic collisions in the European Union using panel data

Road deaths globally have steadily climbed in recent years with the increase in motorisation. Yet in many economically developed countries they have actually fallen. Explanations for this reduction include the role of improved vehicle and highway design, better enforcement and the impact of the economic downturn, whilst there is also some evidence that microeconomic factors like changes in road fuel prices could be contributing to this situation. This paper investigates the effects of fuel prices on road collision frequency in countries where fuel prices are relatively high. Monthly panel data from 28 EU member states from 2005 to 2018 was analysed for both petrol and diesel prices, and for fatalities, total injury collisions and total collisions using: 1) random effect negative binomial (RENB); and 2) population-averaged negative binomial using generalised estimating equations (GEE). The findings indicate that higher fuel prices lead to lower road traffic deaths, injury collisions and overall collisions across all 28 EU member states. Thus, for every 10 percent increase in fuel prices, there will be a 2.6 percent and 2.2 percent reduction in fatalities for petrol and diesel models, respectively. Similarly, total collisions fall by 1.4 percent for petrol and 1.2 for diesel models, and total casualties fall by 1.6 percent for petrol and 1.4 percent for diesel with every 10 percent rise in fuel price. These results could be due to drivers reducing speed to achieve better fuel efficiency and to people driving less to save money - in particular younger, riskier drivers - hence reducing exposure. These findings suggest that policies replacing petrol and diesel vehicles with alternative fuel sources over the next 20 years could have negative repercussions for road safety if not adequately considered.

Exploring the Impact of Climate and Extreme Weather on Fatal Traffic Accidents

Climate change and the extreme weather have a negative impact on road traffic safety, resulting in severe road traffic accidents. In this study, a negative binomial model and a log-change model are proposed to analyse the impact of various factors on fatal traffic accidents. The dataset used in this study includes the fatal traffic accident frequency, social development indicators and climate indicators in California and Arizona. The results show that both models can provide accurate fitting results. Climate variables (i.e., average temperature and standard precipitation 24) can significantly affect the frequency of fatal traffic accidents. Non-climate variables (i.e., beer consumption, rural Vehicle miles travelled ratio, and vehicle performance) also have a significant impact. The modelling results can provide decision-making guidelines for the transportation management agencies to improve road traffic safety.

To drive or not to drive? A study of travel behavior for a recent drinking occasion

Despite decades of education and enforcement campaigns, alcohol-impaired driving persists as a social problem in the U.S. Are there other factors influencing decisions to drive after alcohol consumption that may be amenable to change? We conducted a roadside survey in California in 2012 to assess whether residential accessibility, travel attitudes (indicated by ratings of convenience and safety for travel options), and perceptions of arrest risk affect travel choices made subsequent to alcohol consumption. We conducted hybrid choice modeling for 580 participants. Mode-specific travel attitudes were valid constructs and predictive of travel behavior. Perceived level of service (speed) increased the utility for taxi and getting a ride. Perceiving high risk of arrest affected mode choice through travel attitudes. Not everyone assessed their mode options in the same way. For example, frequent binge drinkers appear to be more willing to consider taxis, men had stronger preferences towards active modes, and younger drivers were less pro-driving in this context. Past drinking and driving behavior affected one's attitude towards driving, while the number of drinks was related to mode choice. While our accessibility measure was not significantly related to attitudes or choice, decreasing urbanicity corresponded with stronger preferences for driving. This pilot study suggests that improving level of service (speed), convenience, and overall safety are considerations for public health in terms of promoting alternatives to drinking and driving. This line of research also has implications for emerging options, such as ride hailing, and how these might be optimized for specific segments of the population.

Impact of vision 2030 on traffic safety in Saudi Arabia

Background and objectives

Road traffic accident (RTA) in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) is the first and major cause of death. The primary objective of this paper is to investigate the impact of Saudi Vision 2030 on road traffic safety. The Vision 2030 programs lead to the implementation of two crucial steps. The first step was to introduce value-added tax (VAT), and the second step was to increase fuel prices. The effect of these two steps on RTAs, injuries, and fatalities is determined and evaluated in this study.

Research methods

The data of RTAs, injuries, and fatalities in the last three decades before implementing VAT and before increasing fuel prices were collected and analyzed. A short-term effect of fuel prices was evaluated using the data of 3 months after each increase in fuel price. The results of RTA before the increase in fuel prices were compared with those of RTAs after the increase in fuel prices. Time series autoregressive and t-test were used to analyze the significant differences in the results.

Results and discussion

The results show that RTAs have increased continuously during the last 30 years until the increase in fuel prices. A short-term effect of Vision 2030 and economic transformation were evaluated using RTA data before and after the increase in fuel prices. The remarkable decline in the number of RTAs, injuries, and fatalities after fuel prices increased was recorded.

Conclusion

Despite all the core issues implementing to reduce RTAs, such as traffic law enforcement, RTAs in the KSA increase and become the first cause of death in the country. Vision 2030 leads to an increase in gasoline prices and the implementation of VAT. The increase in gasoline prices contributes to a short-term decrease in RTAs, injuries, and fatalities by 22.4%, 21.9%, and 14.1%, respectively, while intermediate-term decrease in RTAs and road traffic fatalities is by 72892 and 1842, respectively. The decrease in RTAs may be attributed to the reduction in unnecessary trips and slower and careful driving by people to decrease fuel consumption. Statistical analyses performed using time series and t-test confirmed the significant effect of fuel prices on reducing RTAs.

The impact of retail beverage service training and social host laws on adolescents' DUI rates in San Diego County, California

INTRODUCTION

Driving under the influence (DUI) citations are still a serious concern among drivers aged 16-20 years and have been shown to be related to increased risk of fatal and nonfatal crashes. A battery of laws and policies has been enacted to address this concern. Though numerous studies have evaluated these policies, there is still a need for comprehensive policy evaluations that take into account a variety of contextual factors. Previous effort by this research team examined the impact of 20 minimum legal drinking age-21 laws in the state of California, as they impacted alcohol-related crash rates among drivers under 21 years of age while at the same time accounting for alcohol and gas taxes, unemployment rates, sex distribution among drivers, and sobriety checkpoints. The current research seeks to expand this evaluation to the county level (San Diego County). More specifically, we evaluate the impact of measures subject to county control such as retail beverage service (RBS) laws and social host (SH) laws, as well as media coverage, city employment, alcohol outlet density, number of sworn officers, alcohol consumption, and taxation policies, to determine the most effective point of intervention for communities seeking to reduce underage DUI citations.

METHODS

Annual DUI citation data (2000 to 2013), RBS and SH policies, and city-wide demographic, economic, and environmental information were collected and applied to each of the 20 cities in San Diego County, California. A structural equation model was fit to estimate the relative contribution of the variables of interest to DUI citation rates.

RESULTS

Alcohol consumption and alcohol outlet density both demonstrated a significant increase in DUI rates, whereas RBS laws, SH laws, alcohol tax rates, media clusters, gas tax rates, and unemployment rates demonstrated significant decreases in DUI rates.

CONCLUSIONS

At the county level, although RBS laws, SH laws, and media efforts were found to contribute to a significant reduction in DUI rates, the largest significant contributors to reducing DUI rates were alcohol and gas taxation rates. Policy makers interested in reducing DUI rates among teenagers should examine these variables within their specific communities and consider conducting community-specific research to determine the best way to do so. Future efforts should be made to develop models that represent specific communities who are interested in reducing DUI rates among drivers aged 16-20 years.

Economic and statistical perspectives on traffic safety in Louisiana, 2005-2015

INTRODUCTION

This study examine and applies recent empirical evidence from Mississippi and Alabama on fatal crashes and its relationship with gasoline prices and alcohol consumptions using the Louisiana Crash Data Reports between January 2005 and December 2015.

METHOD

The negative binomial models is the preferred specification for the Louisiana Crash Data. The marginal effects and related elasticities were calculated to facilitate the interpretation of the results.

RESULTS

Findings suggest that higher gasoline prices reduce fatalities among young drivers. A fewer number of young drivers on the roads are believed to reduce the likelihood of fatal crashes. Underage drinking is still prominent in Louisiana. Extreme temperatures are positively associated with youth and other types of fatal crashes.

PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS

This study highlights a huge toll on society in terms of social and economic costs, wealth destruction, and unfulfilled potential of the deceased or incapacitated.

Are Gasoline Prices a Factor in Residential Relocation Decisions? Preliminary Findings from the American Housing Survey, 1996-2008

Residential relocation choice is affected by numerous factors, but gasoline prices as a potential factor have not been investigated. This study examines gasoline price changes and residential relocation choice using 1996-2008 American Housing Survey data. We found higher gasoline prices are associated with a higher percentage of movers choosing locations closer to workplaces. The findings have implications for addressing the impacts of volatile gasoline prices on land use planning and policies; resilient "smart cities or communities" are one possible solution.

A comprehensive conceptual framework for road safety strategies

Road safety strategies (generally called Strategic Highway Safety Plans in the USA) provide essential guidance for actions to improve road safety, but often lack a conceptual framework that is comprehensive, systems theory based, and underpinned by evidence from research and practice. This paper aims to incorporate all components, policy tools by which they are changed, and the general interactions between them. A framework of nine mutually interacting components that contribute to crashes and ten generic policy tools which can be applied to reduce the outcomes of these crashes was developed and used to assess 58 road safety strategies from 22 countries across 15 years. The work identifies the policy tools that are most and least widely applied to components, highlighting the potential for improvements to any individual road safety strategy, and the potential strengths and weaknesses of road safety strategies in general. The framework also provides guidance for the development of new road safety strategies, identifying potential consequences of policy tool based measures with regard to exposure and risk, useful for both mobility and safety objectives.

The Association of Gasoline Prices With Hospital Utilization and Costs for Motorcycle and Nonmotorcycle Motor Vehicle Injuries in the United States

OBJECTIVES

This study examined the association between gasoline prices and hospitalizations for motorcycle and nonmotorcycle motor vehicle crash (MVC) injuries.

METHODS

Data on inpatient hospitalizations were obtained from the 2001 to 2010 Nationwide Inpatient Sample. Panel feasible generalized least squares models were used to estimate the effects of monthly inflation-adjusted gasoline prices on hospitalization rates for MVC injuries and to predict the impact of increasing gasoline taxes.

RESULTS

On the basis of the available data, a $1.00 increase in the gasoline tax was associated with an estimated 8348 fewer annual hospitalizations for nonmotorcycle MVC injuries, and reduced hospital costs by $143 million. However, the increase in the gasoline tax was also associated with an estimated 3574 more annual hospitalizations for motorcycle crash injuries, and extended hospital costs by $73 million.

CONCLUSIONS

This analysis of some existing data suggest that the increased utilization and costs of hospitalization from motorcycle crash injuries associated with an increase in the price of gasoline are likely to substantially offset reductions in nonmotorcycle MVC injuries. A policy decision to increase the gasoline tax could improve traffic safety if the increased tax is paired with public health interventions to improve motorcycle safety.

A comprehensive examination of U.S. laws enacted to reduce alcohol-related crashes among underage drivers

INTRODUCTION

To effectively address concerns associated with alcohol-related traffic laws, communities must apply comprehensive and well-coordinated interventions that account for as many factors as possible. The goal of the current research article is to examine and evaluate the simultaneous contribution of 20 underage drinking laws and 3 general driving safety laws, while accounting for demographic, economic, and environmental variables.

METHODS

Annual fatal crash data (1982 to 2010), policies, and demographic, economic, and environmental information were collected and applied to each of the 51 jurisdictions (50 states and the District of Columbia). A structural equation model was fit to estimate the relative contribution of the variables of interest to alcohol-related crashes.

RESULTS

As expected, economic factors (e.g., unemployment rate, cost of alcohol) and alcohol outlet density were found highly relevant to the amount of alcohol teens consume and therefore to teens' impaired driving. Policies such as those regulating the age of bartenders, sellers, or servers; social host civil liability laws; dram shop laws; internal possession of alcohol laws; and fake identification laws do not appear to have the same impact on teens' alcohol-related crash ratios as other types of policies such as those regulating alcohol consumption or alcohol outlet density.

CONCLUSIONS

This effort illustrates the need for comprehensive models of teens' impaired driving. After simultaneously accounting for as many factors as possible, we found that in general (for most communities) further reductions in alcohol-related crashes among teens might be more rapidly achieved from efforts focused on reducing teens' drinking rather than on reducing teens' driving. Future efforts should be made to develop models that represent specific communities.

PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS

Based on this and community-specific models, simulation programs can be developed to help communities understand and visualize the impact of various policy alternatives.

Acceptance of drinking and driving and alcohol-involved driving crashes in California

BACKGROUND

Alcohol-impaired driving accounts for substantial proportion of traffic-related fatalities in the U.S. Risk perceptions for drinking and driving have been associated with various measures of drinking and driving behavior. In an effort to understand how to intervene and to better understand how risk perceptions may be shaped, this study explored whether an objective environmental-level measure (proportion of alcohol-involved driving crashes in one's residential city) were related to individual-level perceptions and behavior.

METHODS

Using data from a 2012 cross-sectional roadside survey of 1147 weekend nighttime drivers in California, individual-level self-reported acceptance of drinking and driving and past-year drinking and driving were merged with traffic crash data using respondent ZIP codes. Population average logistic regression modeling was conducted for the odds of acceptance of drinking and driving and self-reported, past-year drinking and driving.

RESULTS

A non-linear relationship between city-level alcohol-involved traffic crashes and individual-level acceptance of drinking and driving was found. Acceptance of drinking and driving did not mediate the relationship between the proportion of alcohol-involved traffic crashes and self-reported drinking and driving behavior. However, it was directly related to behavior among those most likely to drink outside the home.

DISCUSSION

The present study surveys a particularly relevant population and is one of few drinking and driving studies to evaluate the relationship between an objective environmental-level crash risk measure and individual-level risk perceptions. In communities with both low and high proportions of alcohol-involved traffic crashes there was low acceptance of drinking and driving. This may mean that in communities with low proportions of crashes, citizens have less permissive norms around drinking and driving, whereas in communities with a high proportion of crashes, the incidence of these crashes may serve as an environmental cue which informs drinking and driving perceptions. Perceptual information on traffic safety can be used to identify places where people may be at greater risk for drinking and driving. Community-level traffic fatalities may be a salient cue for tailoring risk communication.

Safer Roads Owing to Higher Gasoline Prices: How Long It Takes

OBJECTIVES

We investigated how much time passes before gasoline price changes affect traffic crashes.

METHODS

We systematically examined 2004 to 2012 Mississippi traffic crash data by age, gender, and race. Control variables were unemployment rate, seat belt use, alcohol consumption, climate, and temporal and seasonal variations.

RESULTS

We found a positive association between higher gasoline prices and safer roads. Overall, gasoline prices affected crashes 9 to 10 months after a price change. This finding was generally consistent across age, gender, and race, with some exceptions. For those aged 16 to 19 years, gasoline price increases had an immediate (although statistically weak) effect and a lagged effect, but crashes involving those aged 25 to 34 years was seemingly unaffected by price changes. For older individuals (≥ 75 years), the lagged effect was stronger and lasted longer than did that of other age groups.

CONCLUSIONS

The results have important health policy implications for using gasoline prices and taxes to improve traffic safety.

Explaining Chile's traffic fatality and injury reduction for 2000-2012

OBJECTIVES

The objective of the current study is to determine the contribution of Chile's 2005 traffic law reform, police enforcement, and road investment infrastructure to the reduction of traffic fatalities and severe injuries from 2000 to 2012.

METHODS

Analyses based on structural equation models were carried out using a unique database merging aggregate administrative data from several Chilean public institutions. The sample was balanced (13 regions, over 13 years; N=169). Dependent variables were rates of traffic fatality (total, drivers, passengers, and pedestrians), severe injuries, and total number of crashes per vehicle fleet. Independent variables were (1) traffic law reform, (2) police enforcement, and (3) road infrastructure investment. Oil prices, alcohol consumption, proportion of male population 15-24 years old, unemployment, years' effects and regions' effects, and lagged dependent variables were entered as control variables.

RESULTS

Empirical estimates from the structural equation models suggest that the enactment of the traffic law reform is significantly associated with a 7% reduction of pedestrian fatalities. This association is entirely mediated by the positive association the law had with increasing police enforcement and reducing alcohol consumption. In turn, police enforcement is significantly associated with a direct decrease in total fatalities, driver fatalities, passenger fatalities, and pedestrian fatalities by 17%, 18%, 8%, and 60%, respectively. Finally, road infrastructure investment is significantly associated with a direct reduction of 11% in pedestrian fatalities, and the number of total crashes significantly mediates the effect of road infrastructure investment on the reduction of severe injuries. Tests of sensitivity indicate these effects and their statistical significance did not vary substantively with alternative model specifications.

CONCLUSIONS

Results suggest that traffic law reform, police enforcement, and road infrastructure investment have complex interwoven effects that can reduce both traffic fatalities and severe injuries. Though traffic reforms are ultimately designed to change road user behaviors at large, it is also important to acknowledge that legislative changes may require institutional changes--that is, intensification of police enforcement--and be supported by road infrastructure investment, in order to effectively decrease traffic fatalities and injuries. Furthermore, depending on how road safety measures are designed, coordinated, and implemented, their effects on different types of road users vary. The case of Chile illustrates how the diffusion of road safety practices globally promoted by the World Health Organization and World Bank, particularly in 2004, can be an important influence to enhance national road safety practices.

Gasoline prices and traffic crashes in Alabama, 1999-2009

OBJECTIVE

The price of gasoline has been found to be negatively associated with traffic crashes in a limited number of studies. However, most of the studies have focused either on fatal crashes only or on all crashes but measured over a very short time period. In this study, we examine gasoline price effects on all traffic crashes by demographic groups in the state of Alabama from 1999 to 2009.

METHODS

Using negative binomial regression techniques to examine monthly data from 1999 to 2009 in the state of Alabama, we estimate the effects of changes in gasoline price on changes in automobile crashes. We also examine how these effects differ by age group (16-20, 21-25, 26-30, 31-64, and 65+), gender (male and female), and race/ethnicity (non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic black, and Hispanic).

RESULTS

The results show that gasoline prices have both short-term and long-term effects on reducing total traffic crashes and crashes of each age, gender, and race/ethnicity group (except Hispanic due to data limitations). The short-term and long-term effects are not statistically different for each individual demographic group. Gasoline prices have a stronger effect in reducing crashes involving drivers aged 16 to 20 than crashes involving drivers aged 31 to 64 and 65+ in the short term; the effects, however, are not statistically different across other demographic groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Although gasoline price increases are not favored, our findings show that gasoline price increases (or decreases) are associated with reductions (or increases) in the incidence of traffic crashes. If gasoline prices had remained at the 1999 level of $1.41 from 1999 to 2009, applying the estimated elasticities would result in a predicted increase in total crashes of 169,492 (or 11.3%) from the actual number of crashes. If decision makers wish to reduce traffic crashes, increasing gasoline taxes is a possible option-however, doing so would increase travel costs and lead to equity concerns. These findings may help to shape transportation safety planning and policy making.