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Intini P, Berloco N, Coropulis S, Fonzone A, Ranieri V. Aberrant behaviors of drivers involved in crashes and related injury severity: Are there variations between the major cities in the same country? JOURNAL OF SAFETY RESEARCH 2024; 89:64-82. [PMID: 38858064 DOI: 10.1016/j.jsr.2024.01.010] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/27/2023] [Revised: 11/03/2023] [Accepted: 01/23/2024] [Indexed: 06/12/2024]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Crash data analyses based on accident datasets often do not include human-related variables because they can be hard to reconstruct from crash data. However, records of crash circumstances can help for this purpose since crashes can be classified considering aberrant behavior and misconduct of the drivers involved. METHOD In this case, urban crash data from the 10 largest Italian cities were used to develop four logistic regression models having the driver-related crash circumstance (aberrant behaviors: inattentive driving, illegal maneuvering, wrong interaction with pedestrian and speeding) as dependent variables and the other crash-related factors as predictors (information about the users and the vehicles involved and about road geometry and conditions). Two other models were built to study the influence of the same factors on the injury severity of the occupants of vehicles for which crash circumstances related to driver aberrant behaviors were observed and of the involved pedestrians. The variability between the 10 different cities was considered through a multilevel approach, which revealed a significant variability only for the inattention-related crash circumstance. In the other models, the variability between cities was not significant, indicating quite homogeneous results within the same country. RESULTS The results show several relationships between crash factors (driver, vehicle or road-related) and human-related crash circumstances and severity. Unsignalized intersections were particularly related to the illegal maneuvering crash circumstance, while the night period was clearly related to the speeding-related crash circumstance and to injuries/casualties of vehicle occupants. Cyclists and motorcyclists were shown to suffer more injuries/casualties than car occupants, while the latter were generally those exhibiting more aberrant behaviors. Pedestrian casualties were associated with arterial roads, heavy vehicles, and older pedestrians.
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Affiliation(s)
- Paolo Intini
- Department of Innovation Engineering University of Salento, Lecce 73100, Italy.
| | - Nicola Berloco
- Department of Civil, Environmental, Land, Building Engineering and Chemistry Polytechnic University of Bari, Bari 70125, Italy.
| | - Stefano Coropulis
- Department of Civil, Environmental, Land, Building Engineering and Chemistry Polytechnic University of Bari, Bari 70125, Italy.
| | - Achille Fonzone
- Transport Research Institute, School of Engineering and The Built Environment Edinburgh Napier University, Edinburgh EH11 4BN, United Kingdom.
| | - Vittorio Ranieri
- Department of Civil, Environmental, Land, Building Engineering and Chemistry Polytechnic University of Bari, Bari 70125, Italy.
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Chibwe J, Heydari S, Shoari N. A ward level analysis of child pedestrian casualty frequencies in Greater London. JOURNAL OF SAFETY RESEARCH 2024; 88:85-92. [PMID: 38485389 DOI: 10.1016/j.jsr.2023.10.011] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/14/2023] [Revised: 06/30/2023] [Accepted: 10/18/2023] [Indexed: 03/19/2024]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Child pedestrian safety remains a challenge despite the remarkable progress that has been attained in recent years, particularly, in high income jurisdictions such as London. This study sought to identify and quantify the magnitude of the effects of various explanatory variables, from the domains of transport, built and natural environment, socio-demographic and economic factors, on ward level child pedestrian injury frequencies in Greater London. METHOD We adopted a multilevel random parameters model to investigate the factors associated with child pedestrian injuries given the hierarchical nature of the data comprising of wards nested within boroughs. RESULTS We found that crime, the Black, Asian, and Minority Ethnic (BAME) population, school enrollment, and the proportion of the population who walk five times a week had an increasing effect on the number of child pedestrian casualties. Conversely, the proportion of the population with a level 4 qualification and the number of cars per household had a decreasing effect. CONCLUSIONS Our study identified high child pedestrian injury frequency wards and boroughs: Stratford and New Town had the highest expected child pedestrian injury frequencies followed by Selhurst, Westend, and Greenford Broadway. Some inner London boroughs are among the highest injury frequency areas; however, a higher number of high child pedestrian injury boroughs are in outer London. PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS The paper provides recommendations for policy makers for targeted child pedestrian safety improvement interventions and prioritization to optimize the utilization of often constrained resources. The study also highlights the importance of considering social inequities in policies that aim at improving child traffic safety.
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Affiliation(s)
- Joseph Chibwe
- Transportation Research Group, Department of Civil, Maritime and Environmental Engineering, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK.
| | - Shahram Heydari
- Transportation Research Group, Department of Civil, Maritime and Environmental Engineering, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK.
| | - Niloofar Shoari
- MRC Centre for Environment & Health, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Imperial College London, London, UK.
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Lym Y, Kim S, Kim KJ. Identifying regions of excess injury risks associated with distracted driving: A case study in Central Ohio, USA. SSM Popul Health 2022; 20:101293. [PMID: 36438079 PMCID: PMC9682346 DOI: 10.1016/j.ssmph.2022.101293] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/05/2022] [Revised: 11/13/2022] [Accepted: 11/13/2022] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
This study examines the latent influence of spatial locations on the relative risks of crash injuries associated with distracted driving (DD) and identifies regions of excess risks for policy intervention. Using a sample of aggregated injury and fatal DD crash records for the period 2015–2019 across 1,024 census block groups in Central Ohio (i.e., the Columbus Metropolitan Area) in the United States, we investigate the role of latent effects along with several covariates such as land-use mix, sociodemographic features, and the built environment. To this end, we specifically leverage a full Bayesian hierarchical formulation with conditional autoregressive priors to account for uncertainty (i.e., spatially structured random effects) stemming from adjacent census block groups. Furthermore, we consider uncorrelated random effects from upper-level administrative units within which each block group is nested (i.e., census tracts and counties). Our analysis reveals that (1) addressing spatial correlation improves the model's performance, (2) block-group-level variability substantially explains the residual random fluctuation, and (3) intersection density appears negatively associated with the relative risks of crash injuries, while more diversified land use can increase injury risk. Based on these findings, we present spatial clusters with twice the relative risks compared to other block groups, suggesting that policies be devised to mitigate severe injuries due to DD and therefore enhance public health. Crash injuries associated with distracted driving are investigated. Spatial correlation accounts for residual variation in relative injury risks. Intersection density appears to reduce the risks of crash injuries. Diversified land use leads to an elevated injury risk. We identify small areas with excess injury risks.
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Chen CF, Mu PJ. Multilevel analysis of injury severity of elderly motorcycle riders: The role of regional transport development. TRAFFIC INJURY PREVENTION 2022; 23:102-106. [PMID: 35119323 DOI: 10.1080/15389588.2022.2027925] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/24/2021] [Revised: 01/04/2022] [Accepted: 01/07/2022] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE Research specifically focusing on the elderly segment of motorcycle riders remains largely scarce, which represents a serious lack in understanding given the fast-growing trend of aging societies around the world. This article examines factors affecting the injury severity of elderly motorcycle riders in Taiwan using a multilevel model consisting of both individual and municipality levels. In particular, this study emphasized the role of municipality-level factors closely related to the municipality characteristics and policy considerations in directing local governments' policies and implementing crash-prevention strategies and measures. METHODS A multilevel logistic regression model was specified and estimated by using crash data of elderly motorcycle riders across 20 municipalities in Taiwan between 2012 and 2018. Principal component analysis was employed to identify the municipality-level factors. RESULTS Individual-level factors such as being male, old age, no valid license, drunk driving, not wearing a helmet, turning or overtaking others, early morning and evening riding, errors in traffic signaling, and exceeding the speed limit have significant effects on injury severity. The highlighted municipality-level factor, the transport development index, demonstrates its significant effect on mitigating injury severity across municipalities. CONCLUSIONS Apart from considering individual factors such as driver-related, vehicle-related and road-side-related variables, this paper shed light on the role of transport development level of a municipality in analyzing the injury severity of elderly motorcycle riders. Policy implications in directing local governments' policies and implementing crash-prevention strategies and measures are discussed and provided.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ching-Fu Chen
- Department of Transportation and Communication Management Science, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan, Taiwan
| | - Po-Jen Mu
- Department of Transportation and Communication Management Science, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan, Taiwan
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Analysis of Crash Frequency and Crash Severity in Thailand: Hierarchical Structure Models Approach. SUSTAINABILITY 2021. [DOI: 10.3390/su131810086] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
Currently, research on the development of crash models in terms of crash frequency on road segments and crash severity applies the principles of spatial analysis and heterogeneity due to the methods’ suitability compared with traditional models. This study focuses on crash severity and frequency in Thailand. Moreover, this study aims to understand crash frequency and fatality. The result of the intra-class correlation coefficient found that the spatial approach should analyze the data. The crash frequency model’s best fit is a spatial zero-inflated negative binomial model (SZINB). The results of the random parameters of SZINB are insignificant, except for the intercept. The crash frequency model’s significant variables include the length of the segment and average annual traffic volume for the fixed parameters. Conversely, the study finds that the best fit model of crash severity is a logistic regression with spatial correlations. The variances of random effect are significant such as the intersection, sideswipe crash, and head-on crash. Meanwhile, the fixed-effect variables significant to fatality risk include motorcycles, gender, non-use of safety equipment, and nighttime collision. The paper proposes a policy applicable to agencies responsible for driver training, law enforcement, and those involved in crash-reduction campaigns.
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WSGAN: An Improved Generative Adversarial Network for Remote Sensing Image Road Network Extraction by Weakly Supervised Processing. REMOTE SENSING 2021. [DOI: 10.3390/rs13132506] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Road networks play an important role in navigation and city planning. However, current methods mainly adopt the supervised strategy that needs paired remote sensing images and segmentation images. These data requirements are difficult to achieve. The pair segmentation images are not easy to prepare. Thus, to alleviate the burden of acquiring large quantities of training images, this study designed an improved generative adversarial network to extract road networks through a weakly supervised process named WSGAN. The proposed method is divided into two steps: generating the mapping image and post-processing the binary image. During the generation of the mapping image, unlike other road extraction methods, this method overcomes the limitations of manually annotated segmentation images and uses mapping images that can be easily obtained from public data sets. The residual network block and Wasserstein generative adversarial network with gradient penalty loss were used in the mapping network to improve the retention of high-frequency information. In the binary image post-processing, this study used the dilation and erosion method to remove salt-and-pepper noise and obtain more accurate results. By comparing the generated road network results, the Intersection over Union scores reached 0.84, the detection accuracy of this method reached 97.83%, the precision reached 92.00%, and the recall rate reached 91.67%. The experiments used a public dataset from Google Earth screenshots. Benefiting from the powerful prediction ability of GAN, the experiments show that the proposed method performs well at extracting road networks from remote sensing images, even if the roads are covered by the shadows of buildings or trees.
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Zhou Z, Meng F, Song C, Sze NN, Guo Z, Ouyang N. Investigating the uniqueness of crash injury severity in freeway tunnels: A comparative study in Guizhou, China. JOURNAL OF SAFETY RESEARCH 2021; 77:105-113. [PMID: 34092300 DOI: 10.1016/j.jsr.2021.02.008] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/24/2020] [Revised: 10/24/2020] [Accepted: 02/11/2021] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION With the rapid development of transportation infrastructures in precipitous areas, the mileage of freeway tunnels in China has been mounting during the past decade. Provided the semi-constrained space and the monotonous driving environment of freeway tunnels, safety concerns still remain. This study aims to investigate the uniqueness of the relationships between crash severity in freeway tunnels and various contributory factors. METHOD The information of 10,081 crashes in the entire freeway network of Guizhou Province, China in 2018 is adopted, from which a subset of 591 crashes in tunnels is extracted. To address spatial variations across various road segments, a two-level binary logistic approach is applied to model crash severity in freeway tunnels. A similar model is also established for crash severity on general freeways as a benchmark. RESULTS The uniqueness of crash severity in tunnels mainly includes three aspects: (a) the road-segment-level effects are quantifiable with the environmental factors for crash severity in tunnels, but only exist in the random effects for general freeways; (b) tunnel has a significantly higher propensity to cause severe injury in a crash than other locations of a freeway; and (c) different influential factors and levels of contributions are found to crash severity in tunnels compared with on general freeways. Factors including speed limit, tunnel length, truck involvement, rear-end crash, rainy and foggy weather and sequential crash have positive contributions to crash severity in freeway tunnels. Practical applications: Policy implications for traffic control and management are advised to improve traffic safety level in freeway tunnels.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zichu Zhou
- Key Laboratory of Road and Traffic Engineering of the Ministry of Education, Tongji University, Shanghai, China
| | - Fanyu Meng
- Academy for Advanced Interdisciplinary Studies, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen, China; Department of Statistics and Data Science, Soutern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen, China.
| | - Cancan Song
- Key Laboratory of Road and Traffic Engineering of the Ministry of Education, Tongji University, Shanghai, China
| | - N N Sze
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China
| | - Zhongyin Guo
- Key Laboratory of Road and Traffic Engineering of the Ministry of Education, Tongji University, Shanghai, China
| | - Nan Ouyang
- Guizhou Transportation Planning Survey & Design Co., Ltd, Guiyang, China
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Katrakazas C, Theofilatos A, Islam MA, Papadimitriou E, Dimitriou L, Antoniou C. Prediction of rear-end conflict frequency using multiple-location traffic parameters. ACCIDENT; ANALYSIS AND PREVENTION 2021; 152:106007. [PMID: 33556654 DOI: 10.1016/j.aap.2021.106007] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/12/2019] [Revised: 12/09/2020] [Accepted: 01/17/2021] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
Traffic conflicts are heavily correlated with traffic collisions and may provide insightful information on the failure mechanism and factors that contribute more towards a collision. Although proactive traffic management systems have been supported heavily in the research community, and autonomous vehicles (AVs) are soon to become a reality, analyses are concentrated on very specific environments using aggregated data. This study aims at investigating -for the first time- rear-end conflict frequency in an urban network level using vehicle-to-vehicle interactions and at correlating frequency with the corresponding network traffic state. The Time-To-Collision (TTC) and Deceleration Rate to Avoid Crash (DRAC) metrics are utilized to estimate conflict frequency on the current network situation, as well as on scenarios including AV characteristics. Three critical conflict points are defined, according to TTC and DRAC thresholds. After extracting conflicts, data are fitted into Zero-inflated and also traditional Negative Binomial models, as well as quasi-Poisson models, while controlling for endogeneity, in order to investigate contributory factors of conflict frequency. Results demonstrate that conflict counts are significantly higher in congested traffic and that high variations in speed increase conflicts. Nevertheless, a comparison with simulated AV traffic and the use of more surrogate safety indicators could provide more insight into the relationship between traffic state and traffic conflicts in the near future.
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Affiliation(s)
- Christos Katrakazas
- Department of Transportation Planning & Engineering, School of Civil Engineering, National Technical University of Athens, 15773, Greece.
| | - Athanasios Theofilatos
- School of Architecture, Civil and Building Engineering, Loughborough University, Ashby Road, Loughborough, LE11 3TU, United Kingdom.
| | - Md Ashraful Islam
- Department of Civil, Geo and Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Munich, Munich, 80333, Germany.
| | - Eleonora Papadimitriou
- Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, Technical University of Delft, Jaffalaan 5, Delft, 2628 BX, Netherlands.
| | - Loukas Dimitriou
- Lab for Transport Engineering, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Nicosia, Nicosia, 2111, Cyprus.
| | - Constantinos Antoniou
- Chair of Transportation Systems Engineering, Department of Civil, Geo and Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Munich, Munich, 80333, Germany.
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Jing L, Shan W, Zhang Y. A bibliometric analysis of road traffic injury research themes, 1928-2018. Int J Inj Contr Saf Promot 2021; 28:266-275. [PMID: 33535895 DOI: 10.1080/17457300.2021.1881558] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/22/2022]
Abstract
Road traffic accidents have become an important social issue worldwide. This study aims to analyse the research status of road traffic injury from 1928 to 2018 and discuss the future research trends. Co-word analysis was applied to analyse 4,184 articles collected from the core collection of Web of Science. Cluster analysis and social network analysis (SNA) were adopted to group keywords, visualize the links between them, and indicate their importance. Strategic diagram was used to reveal the network status of each cluster. The results lead to the following conclusions: (1) 'Road traffic accident', 'injury', 'road safety', 'mortality', and 'risk factor' are at the centre of social network, indicating that these keywords play the most important roles in the field of road traffic injury research. (2) A total of 60 high-frequency keywords are divided into five clusters, namely 'accident causes leading to injury', 'analysis methods', 'health & injury', 'safety management', and 'road traffic', indicating that they are the main sub-fields of road traffic injury research. (3) 'Risk perception' and 'systems theory' are widely discussed topics emerging in recent years. On the basic of the five clusters, valuable references are provided for future research.
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Affiliation(s)
- Linlin Jing
- School of Economics and Management, Beihang University, Beijing, China
| | - Wei Shan
- School of Economics and Management, Beihang University, Beijing, China
| | - Yingyu Zhang
- School of Management, Qufu Normal University, Rizhao, China
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Se C, Champahom T, Jomnonkwao S, Banyong C, Sukontasukkul P, Ratanavaraha V. Hierarchical binary logit model to compare driver injury severity in single-vehicle crash based on age-groups. Int J Inj Contr Saf Promot 2020; 28:113-126. [PMID: 33302804 DOI: 10.1080/17457300.2020.1858113] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/22/2022]
Abstract
Most of the previous single-vehicle crash analysis studies ignored the effect of road-segments level at higher plan that could probably be unobserved heterogeneity and vary among crash-level factor from one road-segment to next and possibly could lead to a potential biased estimated result. This study developed a hierarchical binary logit model which have the ability to account for both unobserved heterogeneity and correlation within road-segment, to investigate and compare the impact of significant factors influencing fatal single-vehicle crash between young, mid-age and old driver model. A seven-years from 2011 to 2017 crash data, Department of Highway (DOH), Thailand were used in this study. The Intra-Class-Correlation values indicate the importance of road-segment level that 10.1%, 12.2% and 12.8% of the total variation were accounted by random effect from road-segment heterogeneity for young, mid-age and old driver model, respectively. The estimated result of this study shows that influence of alcohol and fatigue increase risk of fatal crash among young and old driver, seatbelt-usage reduce risk of being fatal among mid-age and old driver, roadside safety feature (guardrail) significantly reduce fatality risk among young and mid-age driver, and night time driving without light increase probability of fatal crash for mid-age driver. This study recommends the need to enforce the law on driver under influence of alcohol and seatbelt usage, educational campaign on driving, and installation of guardrail on curve road.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chamroeun Se
- School of Transportation Engineering, Institute of Engineering, Suranaree University of Technology, Nakhon Ratchasima, Thailand
| | - Thanapong Champahom
- School of Transportation Engineering, Institute of Engineering, Suranaree University of Technology, Nakhon Ratchasima, Thailand
| | - Sajjakaj Jomnonkwao
- School of Transportation Engineering, Institute of Engineering, Suranaree University of Technology, Nakhon Ratchasima, Thailand
| | - Chinnakrit Banyong
- School of Transportation Engineering, Institute of Engineering, Suranaree University of Technology, Nakhon Ratchasima, Thailand
| | - Piti Sukontasukkul
- Department of Civil Engineering, Construction and Building Materials Research Center, King Mongkut's University of Technology North Bangkok, Bangkok, Thailand
| | - Vatanavongs Ratanavaraha
- School of Transportation Engineering, Institute of Engineering, Suranaree University of Technology, Nakhon Ratchasima, Thailand
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Park HC, Yang S, Park PY, Kim DK. Multiple membership multilevel model to estimate intersection crashes. ACCIDENT; ANALYSIS AND PREVENTION 2020; 144:105589. [PMID: 32593780 DOI: 10.1016/j.aap.2020.105589] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/25/2020] [Revised: 04/14/2020] [Accepted: 05/08/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
Numerous studies have developed intersection crash prediction models to identify crash hotspots and evaluate safety countermeasures. These studies largely considered only micro-level crash contributing factors such as traffic volume, traffic signals, etc. Some recent studies, however, have attempted to include macro-level crash contributing factors, such as population per zone, to predict the number of crashes at intersections. As many intersections are located between multiple zones and thus affected by factors from the multiple zones, the inclusion of macro-level factors requires boundary problems to be resolved. In this study, we introduce an advanced multilevel model, the multiple membership multilevel model (MMMM), for intersection crash analysis. Our objective was to reduce heterogeneity issues between zones in crash prediction model while avoiding misspecification of the model structure. We used five years of intersection crash data (2009-2013) for the City of Regina, Saskatchewan, Canada and identified micro- and macro-level factors that most affected intersection crashes. We compared the fitting performance of the MMMM with that of two existing models, a traditional single model (SM) and a conventional multilevel model (CMM). The MMMM outperformed the SM and CMM in terms of fitting capability. We found that the MMMM avoided both the underestimation of macro-level variance and the type I statistical error that tend to occur when the crash data are analyzed using a SM or CMM. Statistically significant micro-level and macro-level crash contributing factors in Regina included major roadway AADT, four legs, traffic signals, speed, young drivers, and different types of land use.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ho-Chul Park
- Department of Transportation Engineering, Myongji University, 116 Myongji-ro, Yongin, 17058, South Korea.
| | - Seungho Yang
- Department of Civil Engineering, Lassonde School of Engineering, York University, 4700 Keele Street, Toronto, Ontario, M3J 1P3, Canada.
| | - Peter Y Park
- Department of Civil Engineering, Lassonde School of Engineering, York University, 4700 Keele Street, Toronto, Ontario, M3J 1P3, Canada.
| | - Dong-Kyu Kim
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Seoul National University, 1 Gwanak-ro, Gwanak-gu, Seoul, 08826, South Korea.
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Meng F, Xu P, Song C, Gao K, Zhou Z, Yang L. Influential Factors Associated with Consecutive Crash Severity: A Two-Level Logistic Modeling Approach. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2020; 17:ijerph17155623. [PMID: 32759863 PMCID: PMC7570167 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph17155623] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/30/2020] [Revised: 07/30/2020] [Accepted: 07/31/2020] [Indexed: 11/24/2022]
Abstract
A consecutive crash series is composed by a primary crash and one or more subsequent secondary crashes that occur immediately within a certain distance. The crash mechanism of a consecutive crash series is distinctive, as it is different from common primary and secondary crashes mainly caused by queuing effects and chain-reaction crashes that involve multiple collisions in one crash. It commonly affects a large area of road space and possibly causes congestions and significant delays in evacuation and clearance. This study identified the influential factors determining the severity of primary and secondary crashes in a consecutive crash series. Basic, random-effects, random-parameters, and two-level binary logistic regression models were established based on crash data collected on the freeway network of Guizhou Province, China in 2018, of which 349 were identified as consecutive crashes. According to the model performance metrics, the two-level logistic model outperformed the other three models. On the crash level, double-vehicle primary crash had a negative association with the severity of secondary consecutive crashes, and the involvement of trucks in the secondary consecutive crash had a positive contribution to its crash severity. On a road segment level, speed limit, traffic volume, tunnel, and extreme weather conditions such as rainy and cloudy days had positive effects on consecutive crash severity, while the number of lanes was negatively associated with consecutive crash severity. Policy suggestions are made to alleviate the severity of consecutive crashes by reminding the drivers with real-time potential hazards of severe consecutive crashes and providing educative programs to specific groups of drivers.
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Affiliation(s)
- Fanyu Meng
- Academy for Advanced Interdisciplinary Studies, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen 518000, China;
- Department of Statistics and Data Science, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen 518000, China
| | - Pengpeng Xu
- Department of Civil Engineering, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong 999077, China
- Correspondence: (P.X.); (L.Y.)
| | - Cancan Song
- Key Laboratory of Road and Traffic Engineering of the Ministry of Education, Tongji University, Shanghai 201804, China; (C.S.); (Z.Z.)
| | - Kun Gao
- Department of Architecture and Civil Engineering, Chalmers University of Technology, 41296 Göteborg, Sweden;
| | - Zichu Zhou
- Key Laboratory of Road and Traffic Engineering of the Ministry of Education, Tongji University, Shanghai 201804, China; (C.S.); (Z.Z.)
| | - Lili Yang
- Department of Statistics and Data Science, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen 518000, China
- Correspondence: (P.X.); (L.Y.)
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Champahom T, Jomnonkwao S, Watthanaklang D, Karoonsoontawong A, Chatpattananan V, Ratanavaraha V. Applying hierarchical logistic models to compare urban and rural roadway modeling of severity of rear-end vehicular crashes. ACCIDENT; ANALYSIS AND PREVENTION 2020; 141:105537. [PMID: 32298806 DOI: 10.1016/j.aap.2020.105537] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/11/2019] [Revised: 03/30/2020] [Accepted: 03/31/2020] [Indexed: 05/26/2023]
Abstract
A rear-end crash is a widely studied type of road accident. The road area at the crash scene is a factor that significantly affects the crash severity from rear-end collisions. These road areas may be classified as urban or rural and evince obvious differences such as speed limits, number of intersections, vehicle types, etc. However, no study comparing rear-end crashes occurring in urban and rural areas has yet been conducted. Therefore, the present investigation focused on the comparison of diverse factors affecting the likelihood of rear-end crash severities in the two types of roadways. Additionally, hierarchical logistic models grounded in a spatial basis concept were applied by determining varying parameter estimations with regard to road segments. Additionally, the study compared coefficients with multilevel correlation model and those without multilevel correlation. Four models were established as a result. The data used for the study pertained to rear-end crashes occurring on Thai highways between 2011 and 2015. The results of the data analysis revealed that the model parameters for both urban and rural areas are in the same direction with the larger number of significant parameter values present in the rural rear-end crash model. The significant variables in both the urban and rural road segment models are the seat belt use, and the time of the incident. To conclude, the present study is useful because it provides another perspective of rear-end crashes to encourage policy makers to apply decisions that favor rules that assure safety.
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Affiliation(s)
- Thanapong Champahom
- School of Transportation Engineering, Institute of Engineering, Suranaree University of Technology, Nakhon Ratchasima, 30000, Thailand.
| | - Sajjakaj Jomnonkwao
- School of Transportation Engineering, Institute of Engineering, Suranaree University of Technology, Nakhon Ratchasima, 30000, Thailand.
| | - Duangdao Watthanaklang
- Department of Construction Technology, Faculty of Industrial Technology, Nakhon Ratchasima Rajabhat University, 340 Suranarai Road, Naimuang Sub-District, Muang District, Nakhon Ratchasima, 30000, Thailand.
| | - Ampol Karoonsoontawong
- Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, King Mongkut's University of Technology Thonburi, 126 Pracha Utid Rd., Bangmod, Thung Khru, Bangkok, 10140, Thailand.
| | - Vuttichai Chatpattananan
- Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, King Mongkut's Institute of Technology Ladkrabang, Bangkok, 10520, Thailand.
| | - Vatanavongs Ratanavaraha
- School of Transportation Engineering, Institute of Engineering, Suranaree University of Technology, Nakhon Ratchasima, 30000, Thailand.
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14
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Saffarzadeh M, Soltani N, Naderan A, Abolhasani M. Development of safety improvement method in city zones based on road network characteristics. ARCHIVES OF TRAUMA RESEARCH 2020. [DOI: 10.4103/atr.atr_44_19] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/04/2022]
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15
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Zhou T, Zhang J. Analysis of commercial truck drivers' potentially dangerous driving behaviors based on 11-month digital tachograph data and multilevel modeling approach. ACCIDENT; ANALYSIS AND PREVENTION 2019; 132:105256. [PMID: 31442922 DOI: 10.1016/j.aap.2019.105256] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/22/2019] [Revised: 07/13/2019] [Accepted: 07/30/2019] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
This study analyzed the potentially dangerous driving behaviors of commercial truck drivers from both macro and micro perspectives. The analysis was based on digital tachograph data collected over an 11-month period and comprising 4373 trips made by 70 truck drivers. First, different types of truck drivers were identified using principal component analysis (PCA) and a density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise (DBSCAN) at the macro level. Then, a multilevel model was built to extract the variation properties of speeding behavior at the micro level. Results showed that 40% of the truck drivers tended to drive in a substantially dangerous way and the explained variance proportion of potentially extremely dangerous truck drivers (79.76%) was distinctly higher than that of other types of truck drivers (14.70%˜34.17%). This paper presents a systematic approach to extracting and examining information from a big data source of digital tachograph data. The derived findings make valuable contributions to the development of safety education programs, regulations, and proactive road safety countermeasures and management.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tuqiang Zhou
- The College of Transportation and Logistics, East China Jiaotong University, Nanchang, 330013, China; Mobilities and Urban Policy Lab, Graduate School for International Development and Cooperation, Hiroshima University, Higashi Hiroshima, 739-8529, Japan.
| | - Junyi Zhang
- Mobilities and Urban Policy Lab, Graduate School for International Development and Cooperation, Hiroshima University, Higashi Hiroshima, 739-8529, Japan.
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16
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Injury Severity of Bus–Pedestrian Crashes in South Korea Considering the Effects of Regional and Company Factors. SUSTAINABILITY 2019. [DOI: 10.3390/su11113169] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Bus–pedestrian crashes typically result in more severe injuries and deaths than any other type of bus crash. Thus, it is important to screen and improve the risk factors that affect bus–pedestrian crashes. However, bus–pedestrian crashes that are affected by a company’s and regional characteristics have a cross-classified hierarchical structure, which is difficult to address properly using a single-level model or even a two-level multi-level model. In this study, we used a cross-classified, multi-level model to consider simultaneously the unobserved heterogeneities at these two distinct levels. Using bus–pedestrian crash data in South Korea from 2011 through to 2015, in this study, we investigated the factors related to the injury severity of the crashes, including crash level, regional and company level factors. The results indicate that the company and regional effects are 16.8% and 5.1%, respectively, which justified the use of a multi-level model. We confirm that type I errors may arise when the effects of upper-level groups are ignored. We also identified the factors that are statistically significant, including three regional-level factors, i.e., the elderly ratio, the ratio of the transportation infrastructure budget, and the number of doctors, and 13 crash-level factors. This study provides useful insights concerning bus–pedestrian crashes, and a safety policy is suggested to enhance bus–pedestrian safety.
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17
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Debrabant B, Halekoh U, Bonat WH, Hansen DL, Hjelmborg J, Lauritsen J. Identifying traffic accident black spots with Poisson-Tweedie models. ACCIDENT; ANALYSIS AND PREVENTION 2018; 111:147-154. [PMID: 29202323 DOI: 10.1016/j.aap.2017.11.021] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/10/2017] [Revised: 09/20/2017] [Accepted: 11/16/2017] [Indexed: 06/07/2023]
Abstract
This paper aims at the identification of black spots for traffic accidents, i.e. locations with accident counts beyond what is usual for similar locations, using spatially and temporally aggregated hospital records from Funen, Denmark. Specifically, we apply an autoregressive Poisson-Tweedie model, which covers a wide range of discrete distributions and handles zero-inflation as well as overdispersion. The estimated power parameter of the model was 1.6 (SE=0.06) suggesting a distribution close to the Pólya-Aeppli distribution. We identified nine black spots consistently standing out in all six considered calendar years and calculated by simulations a probability of p=0.03 for these to be chance findings. Altogether, our results recommend these sites for further investigation and suggest that our simple approach could play a role in future area based traffic accident prevention planning.
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Affiliation(s)
- Birgit Debrabant
- Department of Public Health, University of Southern Denmark, Odense, Denmark
| | - Ulrich Halekoh
- Department of Public Health, University of Southern Denmark, Odense, Denmark.
| | - Wagner Hugo Bonat
- Department of Statistics, Paraná Federal University, Curitiba, Brazil
| | - Dennis L Hansen
- Accident Analysis Group, Department of Ortopedics, Odense University Hospital, Odense, Denmark; Department of Clinical Medicine, University of Southern Denmark, Odense, Denmark
| | - Jacob Hjelmborg
- Department of Public Health, University of Southern Denmark, Odense, Denmark
| | - Jens Lauritsen
- Accident Analysis Group, Department of Ortopedics, Odense University Hospital, Odense, Denmark; Department of Clinical Medicine, University of Southern Denmark, Odense, Denmark
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18
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Park HC, Kim DK, Kho SY, Park PY. Cross-classified multilevel models for severity of commercial motor vehicle crashes considering heterogeneity among companies and regions. ACCIDENT; ANALYSIS AND PREVENTION 2017; 106:305-314. [PMID: 28686881 DOI: 10.1016/j.aap.2017.06.009] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/30/2016] [Revised: 04/21/2017] [Accepted: 06/13/2017] [Indexed: 06/07/2023]
Abstract
This study analyzes 86,622 commercial motor vehicle (CMV) crashes (large truck, bus and taxi crashes) in South Korea from 2010 to 2014. The analysis recognizes the hierarchical structure of the factors affecting CMV crashes by examining eight factors related to individual crashes and six additional upper level factors organized in two non-nested groups (company level and regional level factors). The study considers four different crash severities (fatal, major, minor, and no injury). The company level factors reflect selected characteristics of 1,875 CMV companies, and the regional level factors reflect selected characteristics of 230 municipalities. The study develops a single-level ordinary ordered logit model, two conventional multilevel ordered logit models, and a cross-classified multilevel ordered logit model (CCMM). As the study develops each of these four models for large trucks, buses and taxis, 12 different statistical models are analyzed. The CCMM outperforms the other models in two important ways: 1) the CCMM avoids the type I statistical errors that tend to occur when analyzing hierarchical data with single-level models; and 2) the CCMM can analyze two non-nested groups simultaneously. Statistically significant factors include taxi company's type of vehicle ownership and municipality's level of transportation infrastructure budget. An improved understanding of CMV related crashes should contribute to the development of safety countermeasures to reduce the number and severity of CMV related crashes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ho-Chul Park
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Seoul National University, 1 Gwanak-ro, Gwanak-gu, 08826 Seoul, Republic of Korea.
| | - Dong-Kyu Kim
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Seoul National University, 1 Gwanak-ro, Gwanak-gu, 08826 Seoul, Republic of Korea.
| | - Seung-Young Kho
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Seoul National University, 1 Gwanak-ro, Gwanak-gu, 08826 Seoul, Republic of Korea.
| | - Peter Y Park
- Department of Civil Engineering, Lassonde School of Engineering, York University, 4700 Keele Street, Toronto, Ontario, Canada, M3J 1P3.
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19
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Zou W, Wang X, Zhang D. Truck crash severity in New York city: An investigation of the spatial and the time of day effects. ACCIDENT; ANALYSIS AND PREVENTION 2017; 99:249-261. [PMID: 27984816 DOI: 10.1016/j.aap.2016.11.024] [Citation(s) in RCA: 29] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/14/2016] [Revised: 11/21/2016] [Accepted: 11/29/2016] [Indexed: 06/06/2023]
Abstract
This paper investigates the differences between single-vehicle and multi-vehicle truck crashes in New York City. The random parameter models take into account the time of day effect, the heterogeneous truck weight effect and other influencing factors such as crash characteristics, driver and vehicle characteristics, built environment factors and traffic volume attributes. Based on the results from the co-location quotient analysis, a spatial generalized ordered probit model is further developed to investigate the potential spatial dependency among single-vehicle truck crashes. The sample is drawn from the state maintained incident data, the publicly available Smart Location Data, and the BEST Practices Model (BPM) data from 2008 to 2012. The result shows that there exists a substantial difference between factors influencing single-vehicle and multi-vehicle truck crash severity. It also suggests that heterogeneity does exist in the truck weight, and it behaves differently in single-vehicle and multi-vehicle truck crashes. Furthermore, individual truck crashes are proved to be spatially dependent events for both single and multi-vehicle crashes. Last but not least, significant time of day effects were found for PM and night time slots, crashes that occurred in the afternoons and at nights were less severe in single-vehicle crashes, but more severe in multi-vehicle crashes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wei Zou
- Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, 4027 JEC Building, 110 8th Street, Troy, NY 12180-3590, USA.
| | - Xiaokun Wang
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, 4032 JEC Building, 110 8th Street, Troy, NY 12180-3590, USA.
| | - Dapeng Zhang
- Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, 4027 JEC Building, 110 8th Street, Troy, NY 12180-3590, USA.
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20
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Michalaki P, Quddus MA, Pitfield D, Huetson A. Exploring the factors affecting motorway accident severity in England using the generalised ordered logistic regression model. JOURNAL OF SAFETY RESEARCH 2015; 55:89-97. [PMID: 26683551 DOI: 10.1016/j.jsr.2015.09.004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 38] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/27/2015] [Revised: 07/09/2015] [Accepted: 09/28/2015] [Indexed: 06/05/2023]
Abstract
PROBLEM The severity of motorway accidents that occurred on the hard shoulder (HS) is higher than for the main carriageway (MC). This paper compares and contrasts the most important factors affecting the severity of HS and MC accidents on motorways in England. METHOD Using police reported accident data, the accidents that occurred on motorways in England are grouped into two categories (i.e., HS and MC) according to the location. A generalized ordered logistic regression model is then applied to identify the factors affecting the severity of HS and MC accidents on motorways. The factors examined include accident and vehicle characteristics, traffic and environment conditions, as well as other behavioral factors. RESULTS Results suggest that the factors positively affecting the severity include: number of vehicles involved in the accident, peak-hour traffic time, and low visibility. Differences between HS and MC accidents are identified, with the most important being the involvement of heavy goods vehicles (HGVs) and driver fatigue, which are found to be more crucial in increasing the severity of HS accidents. PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS Measures to increase awareness of HGV drivers regarding the risk of fatigue when driving on motorways, and especially the nearside lane, should be taken by the stakeholders.
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Affiliation(s)
- Paraskevi Michalaki
- School of Civil and Building Engineering, Loughborough University, Loughborough, Leicestershire LE11 3TU, United Kingdom.
| | - Mohammed A Quddus
- School of Civil and Building Engineering, Loughborough University, Loughborough, Leicestershire LE11 3TU, United Kingdom.
| | - David Pitfield
- School of Civil and Building Engineering, Loughborough University, Loughborough, Leicestershire LE11 3TU, United Kingdom.
| | - Andrew Huetson
- Connect Roads - Balfour Beatty, Bramham Maintenance Compound, Spen Common Lane, Tadcaster LS24 9NS, United Kingdom.
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21
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Meesmann U, Martensen H, Dupont E. Impact of alcohol checks and social norm on driving under the influence of alcohol (DUI). ACCIDENT; ANALYSIS AND PREVENTION 2015; 80:251-261. [PMID: 25957934 DOI: 10.1016/j.aap.2015.04.016] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/07/2015] [Revised: 03/19/2015] [Accepted: 04/15/2015] [Indexed: 06/04/2023]
Abstract
This study investigated the influence of alcohol checks and social norm on self-reported driving under the influence of alcohol above the legal limit (DUI). The analysis was based on the responses of 12,507 car drivers from 19 European countries to the SARTRE-4 survey (2010). The data were analysed by means of a multiple logistic regression-model on two levels: (1) individual and (2) national level. On the individual level the results revealed that driving under the influence (DUI) was positively associated with male gender, young age (17-34), personal experience with alcohol checks, the perceived likelihood of being checked for alcohol, perceived drunk driving behaviour of friends (social norm) and was negatively associated with higher age (55+). On a national level, the results showed a negative association with a lower legal alcohol limit (BAC 0.2g/l compared with BAC 0.5g/l) and the percentage of drivers checked for alcohol. DUI was positively associated with the percentage of respondents in the country that reported that their friends drink and drive (social norm). The comparison of the results obtained on national and individual levels shows a paradoxical effect of alcohol checks: Countries with more alcohol checks show lower DUI (negative association) but respondents who have been personally checked for alcohol show a higher chance of DUI (positive association). Possible explanations of this paradox are discussed. The effects of the social norm variable (perceived drunk driving behaviour of friends) are positively associated with DUI on both levels.
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Affiliation(s)
- Uta Meesmann
- Belgian Road Safety Institute, Haachtsesteenweg 1405, 1130 Brussels, Belgium.
| | - Heike Martensen
- Belgian Road Safety Institute, Haachtsesteenweg 1405, 1130 Brussels, Belgium
| | - Emmanuelle Dupont
- Belgian Road Safety Institute, Haachtsesteenweg 1405, 1130 Brussels, Belgium
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22
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Papadimitriou E, Theofilatos A, Yannis G, Cestac J, Kraïem S. Motorcycle riding under the influence of alcohol: results from the SARTRE-4 survey. ACCIDENT; ANALYSIS AND PREVENTION 2014; 70:121-130. [PMID: 24713220 DOI: 10.1016/j.aap.2014.03.013] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/17/2013] [Revised: 11/28/2013] [Accepted: 03/13/2014] [Indexed: 06/03/2023]
Abstract
Riding a motorcycle under the influence of alcohol is a dangerous activity, especially considering the high vulnerability of motorcyclists. The present research investigates the factors that affect the declared frequency of drink-riding among motorcyclists in Europe and explores regional differences. Data were collected from the SARTRE-4 (Social Attitudes to Road Traffic Risk in Europe) survey, which was conducted in 19 countries. A total sample of 4483 motorcyclists was interviewed by using a face-to-face questionnaire. The data were analyzed by means of multilevel ordered logit models. The results revealed significant regional differences (between Northern, Eastern and Southern European countries) in drink-riding frequencies in Europe. In general, declared drinking and riding were positively associated with gender (males), increased exposure, underestimation of risk, friends' behaviour, past accidents and alcohol ticket experience. On the other hand, it was negatively associated with underestimation of the amount of alcohol allowed before driving, and support for more severe penalties.
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Affiliation(s)
- Eleonora Papadimitriou
- National Technical University of Athens, Department of Transportation Planning & Engineering, Athens, Greece.
| | - Athanasios Theofilatos
- National Technical University of Athens, Department of Transportation Planning & Engineering, Athens, Greece
| | - George Yannis
- National Technical University of Athens, Department of Transportation Planning & Engineering, Athens, Greece
| | - Julien Cestac
- IFSTTAR - Institut Français des Sciences et Technologies des Transports, de l'Aménagement et des Réseaux, France
| | - Sami Kraïem
- IFSTTAR - Institut Français des Sciences et Technologies des Transports, de l'Aménagement et des Réseaux, France
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