Crash risk, crash exposure, and the built environment: A conceptual review

Patterns and sources of spatial inequity in freight crashes: An application of decomposition analysis

Despite considerable increases in road freight traffic and associated crashes over the past decade, our understanding of their spatial distribution remains limited. This is concerning because freight vehicle crashes often lead to fatal and severe injuries. This study focuses on Seoul, South Korea and contributes to the literature by investigating the patterns and sources of spatial inequity in freight crashes. Specifically, it examines whether socioeconomically disadvantaged neighborhoods experience a higher concentration of freight crashes. Using the Gelbach's decomposition technique, this study also aims to identify the factors contributing to differences in freight crashes between disadvantaged and less-disadvantaged neighborhoods and quantify their relative contributions. The regression results show that severe freight crashes are more prevalent in disadvantaged neighborhoods before adjusting for other factors-a pattern not observed in non-severe crashes. The decomposition analysis reveals that the observed disparities in severe freight crashes between disadvantaged and less-disadvantaged neighborhoods are fully explained by differences in several neighborhood characteristics, including local road density, truck traffic volume density, proximity to logistics terminals, and off-road bicycle lane density, between neighborhood types. Interestingly, differences in built environment characteristics between neighborhood types not only fail to explain but instead counteract the disparities in severe freight crashes. The findings of this study suggest detailed policy implications for mitigating freight crash occurrences and addressing related spatial inequities.

Investigating built environment and traffic flow impact on crash frequency in urban road networks

While numerous studies have examined the factors that influence crash occurrence, there remains a gap in understanding the intricate relationship between built environment, traffic flow, and crash occurrences across different spatial units. This study explores how built environment attributes, and dynamic traffic flow characteristics affect crash frequency by focusing on proposed traffic density-based zones (TDZs). Utilizing a comprehensive dataset from Greater Melbourne, Australia, this research emphasizes on the dynamic traffic flow variables and insights from the Macroscopic Fundamental Diagram model, considering parameters such as shockwave velocity and congestion index. The association between the potential influencing factors and crash frequency is examined using a random parameter negative binomial regression model. Results indicate that the data segmentation based on TDZs is instrumental in establishing a more refined crash model compared to traditional planning-based zones, as demonstrated by improved goodness-of-fit measures. Factors including density (e.g., employment density), network design (e.g., road density and highway density), land use diversity (e.g., job-housing balance and land use mixture), and public transit accessibility (e.g., bus route density) are significantly associated with crash occurrence. Furthermore, the unobserved heterogeneity effects of the shockwave velocity and congestion index on crashes are revealed. The study highlights the significance of incorporating dynamic traffic flow variables in understanding crash frequency variations across different spatial units. These findings can inform optimal real-time traffic monitoring, environmental design, and road safety management strategies to mitigate crash risks.

Factors associated with different types of freight crashes: A macro-level analysis

INTRODUCTION

Despite evidence showing higher fatality rates in freight-related crashes, there has been limited exploration of their spatial distribution and factors associated with such distribution. This gap in the literature primarily stems from the focus of existing studies on micro-level factors predicting the frequency or severity of injuries in freight crashes. The present study delves into the factors contributing to freight crashes at the neighborhood level, particularly focusing on different types of freight crashes: collisions involving a freight vehicle and a passenger vehicle, crashes between freight vehicles, and freight vehicle-non-motorized crashes.

METHOD

This study analyzes traffic crash data from the urbanized region of Seoul, collected between 2016 and 2019. To effectively deal with spatial autocorrelation and model different types of crashes in a unified framework, a Bayesian multivariate conditional autoregressive model was employed.

RESULTS

Findings show substantial differences in the factors associated with various types of freight crashes. The predictors for crashes between freight vehicles diverge significantly from those for freight vehicle-non-motorized crashes. Crashes between freight vehicles are relatively more influenced by road network structure, while freight crashes involving non-motorized users are relatively more affected by the built environment and freight facilities than the other crash types examined. Freight vehicle-passenger vehicle crashes fall into an intermediate category, sharing most predictors with either of the other two types of freight crashes.

CONCLUSIONS AND PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS

The findings of this study offer valuable lessons for transportation practitioners and policymakers. They can guide the formulation of effective land use policies and infrastructure planning, specifically designed to address the unique characteristics of different types of freight crashes.

Towards safer streets: A framework for unveiling pedestrians' perceived road safety using street view imagery

Road safety has become a global concern but its impact in low- and middle-income countries is widespread mainly due to lack of appropriate crash database system and under-reporting. In this context, the primary objective of this paper is to provide a scalable framework for unveiling pedestrians' perceived road safety that can also be applied in regions where accessible crash data are limited or near-crashes are left unreported. In the first step of our methodology, a deep learning architecture-based semantic segmentation model (HRNet+OCR) is trained using labeled Google Street View (GSV) images from specific study areas in Dhaka, Bangladesh, which facilitates the identification of both man-made components (such as roads, sidewalks, buildings, and vehicles) and natural elements (including trees and sky). The developed model showed excellent performance in identifying different features in an image by achieving high precision (0.95), recall (0.97), F1-score (0.96), and intersection over union (IoU) (91.86). Secondly, a group of trained raters scored the perceived road safety on an ordinal scale from 0 to 10 (extremely unsafe to extremely safe to walk in terms of road crashes) by assessing the GSV images. Then, several regression models have been used on features extracted from GSV images, and socio-demographic factors (i.e., population density, and relative wealth index) to estimate the perceived road safety, and random forest regression model was found to perform the best. Further, Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP), a model-agnostic technique has been used for examining feature importance by computing the contribution of each feature to the random forest regression model output. The results show that sidewalk, road, population density, wall, and relative wealth index have higher impact on determining the perceived road safety rating. Additionally, the results of t-tests between the average perceived road safety scores for crash-prone and non crash-prone areas revealed the existence of significant differences. This study also provides perceived road safety rating map on a neighborhood scale, which can be a useful visualization tool for policy-makers and practitioners to identify the road safety deficiencies at specific locations, and formulate appropriate and strategic countermeasures to improve pedestrians' road safety.

Exploring associations between built environment and crash risk of children in school commuting

Understanding how built environment are associated with crash risk (CR) in school commuting is essential to improving travel safety through land use and transportation policies. Scholars often assume that this relationship is consistent across space, but this may lead to inconsistent estimates. To address this issue, using data in Shenzhen, China, the data covers traffic accident data of children taken from police incident reports and supplemented with local land use, transportation network and specific school information. The measurement model of crash scale was conducted to represent crash severity, and the CR was further quantified. The study applies three models, spatial dubin model (SDM), geographically weighted regression (GWR), and mixed GWR (MGWR), to explore spatio-temporal heterogeneity relationships between built environment attributes and CR of children in school commuting. The findings reveal that the crash scale can better represent crash severity of school commuting than a single indicator. Policy interventions should be targeted at specific spatial scales, school types, and time windows to effectively improve travel safety. However, there are some common findings. It is recommended to use a scale of 200 m to explain the relationship between the variables. The MGWR model outperforms the other two models. To reduce CR, it is important to consider lower road network density, a reasonable layout of educational facilities, fewer bus routes, and more on-street parking spaces. Our findings can help to enrich the understanding of associations between land use and CR of children, as well as offer local planning and operating guidance for creating child-friendly environment.

Factor analysis of community-ranked built environment factors contributing to pedestrian injury risk in Kampala city, Uganda

BACKGROUND

Examining community perspective on an issue is not only a key consideration in research on road safety but also on other topics. There is substantial theoretical and empirical knowledge on built environment factors that contribute to pedestrian injury but how the community views these factors is least studied and constitutes the focus of this study. Our study investigated how respondents ranked the relative importance of selected built environment factors that contribute to pedestrian injury risk in Kampala city, Uganda and examined the underlying pattern behind the rankings.

METHODS

Eight hundred and fifty-one pedestrians selected from 14 different road sections in Kampala city were asked to rank each of the 27 built environment variables on a 4-point Likert scale. Point score analysis was used to calculate scores for the different built environment variables and rank them in order of perceived contribution while factor analysis was used to determine the pattern underlying the responses.

RESULTS

Factor analysis isolated two factors that explained 92% of the variation in respondents' rankings: 'road adjacent trip generators and attractors' and 'structure of traffic flows'. This finding implies that pedestrians in Kampala city perceived trip generators and attractors adjacent to the road and the structure of traffic flows as major explanations of the influence of the built environment on pedestrian injury risk.

CONCLUSION

While these rankings and factors identified may not necessarily equate to actual risk, they are important in providing an understanding of pedestrian injury risk from the perspective of the community.

Vehicle crash simulations for safety: Introduction of connected and automated vehicles on the roadways

Traffic accidents are one main cause of human fatalities in modern society. With the fast development of connected and autonomous vehicles (CAVs), there comes both challenges and opportunities in improving traffic safety on the roads. While on-road tests are limited due to their high cost and hardware requirements, simulation has been widely used to study traffic safety. To make the simulation as realistic as possible, real-world crash data such as crash reports could be leveraged in the creation of the simulation. In addition, to enable such simulations to capture the complexity of traffic, especially when both CAVs and human-driven vehicles co-exist on the road, careful consideration needs to be given to the depiction of human behaviors and control algorithms of CAVs and their interactions. In this paper, the authors reviewed literature that is closely related to crash analysis based on crash reports and to simulation of mixed traffic when CAVs and human-driven vehicles co-exist, for studying traffic safety. Three main aspects are examined based on our literature review: data source, simulation methods, and human factors. It was found that there is an abundance of research in the respective areas, namely, crash report analysis, crash simulation studies (including vehicle simulation, traffic simulation, and driving simulation), and human factors. However, there is a lack of integration between them. Future research is recommended to integrate and leverage different state-of-the-art transportation-related technologies to contribute to road safety by developing an all-in-one-step crash analysis system.

Autonomous vehicles and street design: Exploring the role of medians in enhancing pedestrian street crossing safety using a virtual reality experiment

As traffic lanes and on-street parking spots can potentially be downsized with the introduction of autonomous vehicles (AVs), the possibility of additional spare road space becoming available arises in future urban streets. While discussions on converting the leftover space into pedestrian-friendly alternatives exist, allocating that limited space to which alternative is foreseen to be another practical issue shared in both urban and transportation planning. However, evidence-based guidance on the issue provided from the actual verification on whether or to what extent the proposed alternatives may have an effect seems to be absent. Therefore, with an emphasis on pedestrian safety, this study focused on the "median strip" alternative as a first example and, through a VR simulation experiment aimed at empirically examining its suggested role on enhancing street crossing safety and further exploring its possible influence on pedestrians' trust toward autonomous driving. With 99 participants, perceived safety (individual assessments of safety), performance-based safety (crossing success/abandonment and collision occurrence), and trust were either questioned or recorded for nine scenarios with varying crossing conditions. A combination of multilevel models and cross-tabulation results indicate that medians seem especially significant in ensuring the performance-based safety results of pedestrians even when AVs are driving at high speeds or with smaller gaps, thus suggesting it a win-win option for both. Insights and implications on the role and management of medians in future streets are further provided.

Pedestrian crash frequency: Unpacking the effects of contributing factors and racial disparities

In this paper, we unpack the magnitude effects of the determinants of pedestrian crashes using a multivariate analysis approach. We consider four sets of exogenous factors that characterize residential neighborhoods as well as potentially affect pedestrian crashes and the racial composition of such crashes: (1) crash risk exposure (CE) attributes, (2) cultural variables, (3) built environment (BE) features, and (4) sociodemographic (SD) factors. Our investigation uses pedestrian crash and related data from the City of Houston, Texas, which we analyze at the spatial Census Block Group (CBG) level. Our results indicate that social resistance considerations (that is, minorities resisting norms as they are perceived as being set by the majority group), density of transit stops, and road design considerations (in particular in and around areas with high land-use diversity) are the three strongest determinants of pedestrian crashes, particularly in CBGs with a majority of the resident population being Black. The findings of this study can enable policymakers and planners to develop more effective countermeasures and interventions to contain the growing number of pedestrian crashes in recent years, as well as racial disparities in pedestrian crashes. Importantly, transportation safety engineers need to work with social scientists and engage with community leaders to build trust before leaping into implementing planning countermeasures and interventions. Issues of social resistance, in particular, need to be kept in mind.

Assessing the effectiveness of built environment-based safety measures in urban and rural areas for reducing the non-motorist crashes

Introduction

Built environment (BE) has a well-documented impact on non-motorist crashes. Interestingly, the urban-rural distinction of the impacts received scant attention in the literature. Moreover, the combined effect of these elements are less studied than their standalone effects.

Objective

This study explores the combined effectiveness of built environment-based safety measures in urban and rural settings.

Data and method

The study uses nine years (2011-2019) of non-motorist (pedestrian and bicyclist) crash data in Florida. It classifies urban and rural areas with the multivariate clustering method and models the crash count with Log-transformed Spatial Error Models.

Results

Findings suggest that urban areas, tracts with low median income, a lower percentage of senior citizens, and a higher percentage of black, white, and Hispanic people are significantly associated with a high number of nonmotorist crashes. The percentage of pedestrian and bicyclist commuters is positively associated with pedestrian and bicycle crash count, respectively. Among BE variables, more crashes are observed in tracts with more commercial land use (LU), less recreational LU, higher LU mix, more traffic, signalized intersection, transit stops, and sidewalks. Having more traffic and fewer transit stops pose lesser risk in urban areas than rural areas. The combined effects suggest that increasing commercial LU where LU entropy is high (or vice-versa) will help to reduce nonmotorist crashes. Also, in high entropy areas, increasing rural traffic is riskier whereas increasing urban traffic is safer.

Conclusion

This paper documents the need of considering urban-rural differences and interaction effects among BE elements for nonmotorist safety.

A decade of child pedestrian safety in England: a bayesian spatio-temporal analysis

BACKGROUND

Child pedestrian injury is a public health and health equality challenge worldwide, including in high-income countries. However, child pedestrian safety is less-understood, especially over long time spans. The intent of this study is to understand factors affecting child pedestrian safety in England over the period 2011-2020.

METHODS

We conducted an area-level study using a Bayesian space-time interaction model to understand the association between the number of road crashes involving child pedestrians in English Local Authorities and a host of socio-economic, transport-related and built-environment variables. We investigated spatio-temporal trends in child pedestrian safety in England over the study period and identified high-crash local authorities.

RESULTS

We found that child pedestrian crash frequencies increase as child population, unemployment-related claimants, road density, and the number of schools increase. Nevertheless, as the number of licensed vehicles per capita and zonal-level walking/cycling increase, child pedestrian safety increases. Generally, child pedestrian safety has improved in England since 2011. However, the socio-economic inequality gap in child pedestrian safety has not narrowed down. In addition, we found that after adjusting for the effect of covariates, the rate of decline in crashes varies between local authorities. The presence of localised risk factors/mitigation measures contributes to variation in the spatio-temporal patterns of child pedestrian safety.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, southern England has experienced more improvement in child pedestrian safety over the last decade than the northern regions. Our study revealed socio-economic inequality in child pedestrian safety in England. To better inform safety and public health policy, our findings support the importance of a targeted system approach, considering the identification of high-crash areas while keeping track of how child pedestrian safety evolves over time.

Review of Research on Road Traffic Operation Risk Prevention and Control

Road traffic safety can be ensured by preventing and controlling the potential risks in road traffic operations. The relevant literature was systematically reviewed to identify the research context and status quo in the road traffic operation risk prevention and control field and identify the key study contents needing further research. As research material, the related English and Chinese literature published between 1996 and 2021 (as of 31st December 2021) was obtained through the Web of Science Core Collection and Chinese Science Citation Database. These research materials include 22,403 English and 7876 Chinese papers. Based on the bibliometrics, this study used CiteSpace software to conduct keyword co-occurrence analysis in the field. The results show that the relevant research topics mainly covered the risks of drivers, vehicles, roads, and the traffic environment. In the aspect of driver risks, the studies focused on driving behavior characteristics. In terms of vehicle risks, the related studies were mainly about the vehicle control system, driving assistance system, hazardous material transportation, automated driving technology, safe driving speed, and vehicle collision prediction. For the road risks, the safe driving guarantee of high-risk road sections, driving risks at intersections, and safe road alignment design were the three study hotspots. In terms of traffic environment risks, identifying traffic risk locations and driving safety guarantees under adverse weather conditions were the two main research highlights. Moreover, mathematical modeling was the main method for studying road traffic operation risk. Furthermore, the impact of environmental factors on drivers, the emergency rescue system for road traffic accidents, the connection between automated driving technology and safe driving theory, and the man-machine hybrid traffic flow characteristics are the subjects needing further research.

Pedestrians safety perception and crossing behaviors in narrow urban streets: An experimental study using immersive virtual reality technology

Virtual reality (VR) technology emerges as a promising tool for investigating human perception and behavior in highly controlled, immersive, and risk-free environments. This study proposed to apply simulated VR technology to investigate the interactions between perceived crash risk and behavior patterns in a road crossing with changes in the safety-related environmental attributes. In the context of the 8-meter-wide segment in a residential block, 35 VR environments with variations of six environmental attributes were generated. Two hundred participants were recruited for the experiment. The measured behavioral outcomes were 1) waiting and reaction time in the decision phase before crossing and 2) crossing speed and gait variability in the crossing phase. Random effect regression and multi-level structural equation models were constructed to test the study hypotheses. The results demonstrated that environmental attributes, including barriers to visibility (coefficient = 0.446), geometric patterns (coefficient = -0.625), and pavement signs (coefficient = -0.502), were associated with the pedestrians' perceived risk, but the influence varied by street types. In addition, changes in the perceived threats to pedestrians were found to mediate the environment-crossing behavior relationship (coefficient of the indirect effect = 0.679). Those who perceive higher crash risk took longer to decide to start walking at a crosswalk and tended to walk in haste while crossing the road. Using VR technology, the present study addressed an inter-relationship between environmental characteristics, cognition, and crossing behavior, contributing to better knowledge on road safety interventions to reduce the risk of pedestrian-involved crashes.

A comprehensive analysis of the relationships between the built environment and traffic safety in the Dutch urban areas

Built-environment factors potentially alleviate or aggravate traffic safety problems in urban areas. This paper aims to investigate the relationships of these factors with vehicle-bicycle and vehicle-vehicle property damage only (PDO) and killed and severe injury (KSI) crashes in urban areas. For this purpose, an area-level analysis using 100x100m² cells, along with a Spatial Hurdle Negative Binomial regression model were employed. The study area is composed of a selection of municipalities in the Netherlands-Randstad Area where major land-use developments have occurred since the 1970s. The study was conducted by developing a rich dataset composed of various national and local databases. The findings reveal that built-environment factors and land-use policies have substantial impacts on safety, which cannot be neglected. The factors explaining the land-use density and diversity in the area (e.g., urbanity and function mixing levels), as well as the land-use design characteristics (indicated by average age of the neighborhoods), traffic and road network characteristics, and proximity to different destinations influence the probability, frequency, and severity of crashes in urban areas. Furthermore, low socioeconomic levels are associated with a higher frequency of traffic crashes.

Neural Network and Spatial Model to Estimate Sustainable Transport Demand in an Extensive Metropolitan Area

Urban renewal projects worldwide focus mainly on resolving motorized, personal, and low occupancy problems instead of sustainable mobility. As part of the process, traditional field audits have a high cost in time and resources. This paper reviews a spatial model of accessibility and habitability of the streets, oriented to the location of the volume of people moving sustainably out of an extensive street network. The exercise site is in the Monterrey Metropolitan Area, the second largest in Mexico. Here, the population that moves sustainably as the collective (public and enterprise transportation) and the active (cycling, walking, and others) represents a considerable portion (49%) of travelers, thus, confirming the need for intervention. The spatial model is elaborated in a Geographical Information System (GIS), and the main results are compared with the actual public transport demand using a neural networks process. The results of the tool as a predictor have a 91% efficiency, making it possible to determine the location of urban renewal projects related to the volume of people moving sustainably.

Uncertainty matters: Bayesian modeling of bicycle crashes with incomplete exposure data

BACKGROUND

One major challenge faced by neighborhood-level bicycle safety analysis is the lack of complete and reliable exposure data for the entire area under investigation. Although the conventional travel-diary surveys, together with the emerging smartphone fitness applications and bike-sharing systems, provide straightforward and valuable opportunities to estimate territory-wide bicycle activities, the obtained ridership suffers inherently from underreporting.

METHODS

We introduced the Bayesian simultaneous-equation model as a sound methodological alternative here to address the uncertainty arising from incomplete exposure data when modeling bicycle crashes. The proposed method was successfully fitted to a crowdsourced dataset of 792 bicycle-motor vehicle (BMV) crashes aggregated from 209 neighborhoods over a 3-year period in Hong Kong.

RESULTS

Our analysis empirically demonstrated the bias due to omission of activity-based exposure measures or to the direct use of cycling distance extracted from the travel-diary survey without correcting for incompleteness. By modeling bicycle activities and the frequency of BMV crashes simultaneously, we also provided new evidence that an expansion of bicycle infrastructure was likely associated with a significant increase in cycling levels and a substantial reduction in the risk of BMV crashes, despite a slight increase in the absolute number of BMV crashes.

CONCLUSIONS

Our approach is promising in adjusting for the uncertainty in raw exposure data, extrapolating the missing exposure values, and untangling the linkage among built environment, bicycle activities, and the frequency of BMV crashes within a unified framework. To promote safer cycling, designated facilities should be provided to consecutively separate cyclists from motor vehicles.

Pedestrian Safety in Compact and Mixed-Use Urban Environments: Evaluation of 5D Measures on Pedestrian Crashes

This study examined the impact of density, diversity, design, distance to transit, and destination accessibility, five measures, known as the 5Ds, that characterize the built environment, on pedestrian–vehicle crashes in Seoul, Korea. Using spatial analysis based on 500-m grid cells, this study employed negative binomial regression models on the frequencies of three specific types of pedestrian–vehicle crashes: crashes causing death, major injury, and minor injury to pedestrians. Analysis shows that compact and mixed-use urban environments represented by 5D measures have mixed effects on pedestrian safety. Trade-off effects are found between a higher risk for all types of pedestrian crashes, and a lower risk for fatal pedestrian crashes in 5D urban environments. As a design variable, a higher number of intersections is more likely to increase some types of pedestrian crashes, including fatal crashes, a finding which warrants policy attention to promote pedestrian safety near intersection areas. This study also confirms an urgent need to secure the travel safety of pedestrians near public transit stations due to the higher risk of pedestrian crashes near such facilities. Various destinations, such as retail stores, traditional markets, and hospitals, are associated with pedestrian crashes. Pedestrian safety measures should be implemented to reduce the likelihood of pedestrian crashes near major destination facilities.

Influence of built environment and roadway characteristics on the frequency of vehicle crashes caused by driver inattention: A comparison between rural roads and urban roads

INTRODUCTION

With prevalent and increased attention to driver inattention (DI) behavior, this research provides a comprehensive investigation of the influence of built environment and roadway characteristics on the DI-related vehicle crash frequency per year. Specifically, a comparative analysis between DI-related crash frequency in rural road segments and urban road segments is conducted.

METHOD

Utilizing DI-related crash data collected from North Carolina for the period 2013-2017, three types of models: (1) Poisson/negative binomial (NB) model, (2) Poisson hurdle (HP) model/negative binomial hurdle (HNB) model, and (3) random intercepts Poisson hurdle (RIHP) model/random intercepts negative binomial hurdle (RIHNB) model, are applied to handle excessive zeros and unobserved heterogeneity in the dataset.

RESULTS

The results show that RIHP and RIHNB models distinctly outperform other models in terms of goodness-of-fit. The presence of commercial areas is found to increase the probability and frequency of DI-related crashes in both rural and urban regions. Roadway characteristics (such as non-freeways, segments with multiple lanes, and traffic signals) are positively associated with increased DI-related crash counts, whereas state-secondary routes and speed limits (higher than 35 mph) are associated with decreased DI-related crash counts in rural and urban regions. Besides, horizontal curved and longitudinal bottomed segments and segments with double yellow lines/no passing zones are likely to have fewer DI-related crashes in urban areas. Medians in rural road segments are found to be effective to reduce DI-related crashes. Practical Applications: These findings provide a valuable understanding of the DI-related crash frequency for transportation agencies to propose effective countermeasures and safety treatments (e.g., dispatching more police enforcement or surveillance cameras in commercial areas, and setting more medians in rural roads) to mitigate the negative consequences of DI behavior.

A joint probability model for pedestrian crashes at macroscopic level: Roles of environment, traffic, and population characteristics

Road safety is a major public health issue, with road crashes accounting for one-fourth of all documented injuries. In these crashes, pedestrians are more vulnerable to fatal and/or severe injuries than car occupants. Therefore, it is necessary to have a better understanding of the relationship between pedestrian crashes and possible influencing factors, including road environment, traffic conditions, and population characteristics. In conventional studies, separate prediction models were established for pedestrian crashes and other crash types, which could have ignored possible correlations among the different crash types. Additionally, these influencing factors can contribute to pedestrian crashes in two manners, i.e., contributing to crash occurrence and propensity of pedestrian involvement. Furthermore, extensive pedestrian count data were generally not available, affecting the estimation of pedestrian crash exposure. In this study, a joint probability model is adopted for the simultaneous modeling of crash occurrence and pedestrian involvement in crashes; effects of possible influencing factors, including land use, road networks, traffic flow, population demographics and socioeconomics, public transport facilities, and trip attraction attributes, are considered. Additionally, trip generation and pedestrian activity data, based on a comprehensive household travel survey, are used to determine pedestrian crash exposure. Markov chain Monte Carlo full Bayesian approach is then applied to estimate the parameters. Results indicate that crash occurrence is correlated to traffic flow, number of non-signalized intersections, and points of interest such as restaurants and hotels. By contrast, population age, ethnicity, education, household size, road density, and number of public transit stations could affect the propensity of pedestrian involvement in crashes. These findings indicate that better design and planning of built environments are necessary for safe and efficient access for pedestrians and for the long-term improvement of walkability in a high-density city such as Hong Kong.

Effects of state-led suburbanization on traffic crash density in China: Evidence from the Chengdu City Proper

Road crashes have become a leading cause of death in China. Although enormous efforts have been exerted to determine the factors that affect individual crash incidents, neighborhood-level crash incidence in Chinese cities has not been sufficiently analyzed. This study fills this gap by quantifying the effects of built environment factors on neighborhood-level automobile-involved crash density (NACD) in urban China and identifying its mediators and mediating effects. In American suburbs, urban sprawl is widely recognized to render neighborhoods unsafe for residence, thus leading to a high crash incidence. This study compares the characteristics of built environments between inner-city neighborhoods and the new neighborhoods that have been developed through China's state-led suburbanization since 2008 to reveal how this suburbanization provides a safer neighborhood environment. A structural equation model is used to examine the relationships among suburbanization, built environment factors, and NACD in the city proper of Chengdu, the largest metropolis in southwest China. Thus, this study contributes new empirical evidence to the debates over urban designs that are safest for traffic. Moreover, this study enriches our understanding of different sociospatial consequences between American-style urban sprawl and China's state-led suburbanization.