Lifetime Earning Potential and Workforce Distribution in Developmental and Behavioral Pediatrics

Child Health Needs and the Developmental-Behavioral Pediatrics Workforce Supply: 2020-2040

Developmental-behavioral pediatrics (DBP) subspecialists care for children with complex neurodevelopmental and behavioral health conditions; additional roles include education and training, advocacy, and research. In 2023, there were 1.0 DBP subspecialists per 100 000 US children aged 0 to 17 years (range 0.0-3.8), with wide variability in DBP subspecialist distribution. Given the prevalence of DB conditions, the current workforce is markedly inadequate to meet the needs of patients and families. The American Board of Pediatrics Foundation led a modeling project to forecast the US pediatric subspecialty workforce from 2020 to 2040 using current trends in each subspecialty. The model predicts workforce supply at baseline and across alternative scenarios and reports results in headcount (HC) and HC adjusted for percent time spent in clinical care, termed "clinical workforce equivalent." For DBP, the baseline model predicts HC growth nationally (+45%, from 669 to 958), but these extremely low numbers translate to minimal patient care impact. Adjusting for population growth over time, projected HC increases from 0.8 to 1.0 and clinical workforce equivalent from 0.5 to 0.6 DBP subspecialists per 100 000 children aged 0 to 18 years by 2040. Even in the best-case scenario (+12.5% in fellows by 2030 and +7% in time in clinical care), the overall numbers would be minimally affected. These current and forecasted trends should be used to shape much-needed solutions in education, training, practice, policy, and workforce research to increase the DBP workforce and improve overall child health.

Child Health Needs and the Pediatric Endocrinology Workforce: 2020-2040

The pediatric endocrinology (PE) workforce in the United States is struggling to sustain an adequate, let alone optimal, workforce capacity. This article, one of a series of articles in a supplement to Pediatrics, focuses on the pediatric subspecialty workforce and furthers previous evaluations of the US PE workforce to model the current and future clinical PE workforce and its geographic distribution. The article first discusses the children presenting to PE care teams, reviews the current state of the PE subspecialty workforce, and presents projected headcount and clinical workforce equivalents at the national, census region, and census division level on the basis of a subspecialty workforce supply model through 2040. It concludes by discussing the educational and training, clinical practice, policy, and future workforce research implications of the data presented. Data presented in this article are available from the American Board of Pediatrics, the National Resident Matching Program, and the subspecialty workforce supply model. Aging, part-time appointments, and unbalanced geographic distribution of providers diminish the PE workforce capacity. In addition, limited exposure, financial concerns, and lifestyle perceptions may impact trainees. Additional workforce challenges are the subspecialty's increasingly complex cases and breadth of conditions treated, reliance on international medical graduates to fill fellowship slots, and high relative proportion of research careers. The recent limitations on pediatric endocrinologists providing gender-affirming care may also impact the geographic distribution of the subspecialty's workforce. Deliberate actions need to be taken now to continue serving the needs of children.

Child Health and the US Pediatric Subspecialty Workforce: Planning for the Future

This article opens a multi-article Pediatrics supplement that provides a rigorous analysis of the projected pediatric subspecialty workforce in the United States. Congenital variations, epigenetics, exposures, lifestyle, preventive care, and medical interventions from conception through young adulthood set the stage for health and wellbeing in adulthood. Although care provided by pediatric subspecialists is associated with better outcomes and lower costs compared with adult providers, the authors of recent articles in the lay and medical literature have questioned the capacity of pediatric subspecialists to meet children's health care needs. This article highlights that, despite numerous advances in prevention, diagnosis, and treatment, the last decade has witnessed increasing numbers of children with acute or chronic physical and mental health disorders, including medical complexity, obesity, type 2 diabetes, anxiety, depression, and suicidality, all of which are exacerbated by poverty, racism, and other social drivers of health. In this article, we then describe the variability in the demographics, practice characteristics, and geographic distribution of the 15 core pediatric subspecialties certified by the American Board of Pediatrics. We then discuss the rationale and approach to the development of a pediatric subspecialty workforce model that forecasts subspecialist supply from 2020 to 2040 for 14 subspecialties at the national and subnational levels (not including the newest subspecialty, pediatric hospital medicine), accounting for US Census Bureau child population projections. The model does not account for the unique physical and mental needs of individual children, nor does it address the increasingly precarious commitment to, and financing of, pediatric subspecialty care in the US health care system impacting market demand.

Child Health Needs and the Adolescent Medicine Workforce Supply: 2020-2040

Adolescent medicine (AM) subspecialists provide primary, subspecialty, and consultative care to adolescents and young adults (AYAs). Given insufficient numbers of AM subspecialists to care for all AYAs, the workforce supports AYAs health care capacity through education, research, advocacy, and the development of policies and programs sensitive to their unique needs. A modeling project funded by the American Board of Pediatrics Foundation was developed to forecast the pediatric subspecialty workforce in the United States from 2020 to 2040 on the basis of current trends in each subspecialty. The model predicts workforce supply at baseline and across alternative scenarios, and reports results in headcount and headcount adjusted for percentage of time spent in clinical care, termed "clinical workforce equivalent." For the AM subspecialty, several scenarios were considered that modified the number of fellows and/or clinical time. The baseline model predicted low growth nationally (27% and 13% increase in total AM subspecialists and AM subspecialists per 100 000 children, respectively) and declines in AM workforce relative to population growth in census divisions with existing geographic workforce disparities. In the alternative scenarios, fellow number and clinical time changes did not significantly change predictions relative to the baseline model, but a 12.5% decrease in fellows predicted a 40% reduction in the workforce from baseline with a widening of geographic workforce disparities. On the basis of the expansive clinical and nonclinical roles of AM subspecialists and these forecasted workforce challenges, significant educational, practice, and policy changes will be necessary to bolster the supply of well-trained clinicians addressing the dynamic health care needs of AYAs.

Ending Developmental-Behavioral Pediatrics Faculty Requirement for Pediatric Residency Programs-Desperate Times Do Not Justify Desperate Actions

This Viewpoint discusses the issues at stake and potential adverse consequences of the Accreditation Council for Graduate Medial Education’s proposal to remove the requirement for pediatric training programs to have board-certified developmental-behavioral pediatrician faculty members.