Mixtures of receiver operating characteristic curves

Choosing between the BP and BN sequential strategies

Cost and burden of diagnostic testing may be reduced if fewer tests can be applied. Sequential testing involves selecting a sequence of tests, but only administering subsequent tests dependent on results of previous tests. This research provides guidance to choosing between single tests or the believe the positive (BP) and believe the negative (BN) sequential testing strategies, using accuracy (as measured by the Youden Index) as the primary determinant. Approximately 75% of the parameter combinations examined resulted in either BP or BN being recommended based on a higher accuracy at the optimal point. In about half of the scenarios BP was preferred, and the other half, BN, with the choice often a function of the value of the ratio of standard deviations of those without and with disease (b). Large values of b for the first test of the sequence tended to be associated with preference for BN as opposed to BP, while small values of b appear to favor BP. When there was no preference between sequences and/or single tests based on the Youden Index, cost of the sequence was considered. In this case, disease prevalence plays a large role in the selection of strategies, with lower values favoring BN and sometimes higher values favoring BP. The cost threshold for the sequential strategy to be preferred over a single, more accurate test, was often quite high. It appears that while sequential strategies most often increase diagnostic accuracy over a single test, sequential strategies are not always preferred.

Detection and differentiation of early hepatocellular carcinoma from cirrhosis using CT perfusion in a rat liver model

BACKGROUND

Functional imaging such as CT perfusion can detect morphological and hemodynamic changes in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Pre-carcinoma and early HCC nodules are difficult to differentiate by observing only their hemodynamics changes. The present study aimed to investigate hemodynamic parameters and evaluate their differential diagnostic cut-off between pre-carcinoma and early HCC nodules using CT perfusion and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves.

METHODS

Male Wistar rats were randomly divided into control (n=20) and experimental (n=70) groups. Diethylnitrosamine (DEN) was used to induce pre-carcinoma and early HCC nodules in the experimental group. Perfusion scanning was carried out on all survival rats discontinuously from 8 to 16 weeks. Hepatic portal perfusion (HPP), hepatic arterial fraction (HAF), hepatic arterial perfusion (HAP), hepatic blood volume (HBV), hepatic blood flow (HBF), mean transit time (MTT) and permeability of capillary vessel surface (PS) data were provided by mathematical deconvolution model. The perfusion parameters were compared among the three groups of rats (control, pre-carcinoma and early HCC groups) using the Kruskal-Wallis test and analyzed with ROC curves. Histological examination of the liver tissues with hematoxylin and eosin staining was performed after CT scan.

RESULTS

For HPP, HAF, HBV, HBF and MTT, there were significant differences among the three groups (P<0.05). HAF had the highest areas under the ROC curves: 0.80 (control vs pre-carcinoma groups) and 0.95 (control vs early HCC groups) with corresponding optimal cut-offs of 0.37 and 0.42, respectively. The areas under the ROC curves for HPP was 0.79 (control vs pre-carcinoma groups) and 0.92 (control vs early HCC groups) with corresponding optimal cut-offs of 136.60 mL/min/100 mg and 108.47 mL/min/100 mg, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

CT perfusion combined with ROC curve analysis is a new diagnosis model for distinguishing between pre-carcinoma and early HCC nodules. HAF and HPP are the ideal reference indices.