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Coalson JE, Richard DM, Hayden MH, Townsend J, Damian D, Smith K, Monaghan A, Ernst KC. Aedes aegypti abundance in urban neighborhoods of Maricopa County, Arizona, is linked to increasing socioeconomic status and tree cover. Parasit Vectors 2023; 16:351. [PMID: 37807069 PMCID: PMC10560435 DOI: 10.1186/s13071-023-05966-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/17/2023] [Accepted: 09/09/2023] [Indexed: 10/10/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Understanding coupled human-environment factors which promote Aedes aegypti abundance is critical to preventing the spread of Zika, chikungunya, yellow fever and dengue viruses. High temperatures and aridity theoretically make arid lands inhospitable for Ae. aegypti mosquitoes, yet their populations are well established in many desert cities. METHODS We investigated associations between socioeconomic and built environment factors and Ae. aegypti abundance in Maricopa County, Arizona, home to Phoenix metropolitan area. Maricopa County Environmental Services conducts weekly mosquito surveillance with CO2-baited Encephalitis Vector Survey or BG-Sentinel traps at > 850 locations throughout the county. Counts of adult female Ae. aegypti from 2014 to 2017 were joined with US Census data, precipitation and temperature data, and 2015 land cover from high-resolution (1 m) aerial images from the National Agricultural Imagery Program. RESULTS From 139,729 trap-nights, 107,116 Ae. aegypti females were captured. Counts were significantly positively associated with higher socioeconomic status. This association was partially explained by higher densities of non-native landscaping in wealthier neighborhoods; a 1% increase in the density of tree cover around the trap was associated with a ~ 7% higher count of Ae. aegypti (95% CI: 6-9%). CONCLUSIONS Many models predict that climate change will drive aridification in some heavily populated regions, including those where Ae. aegypti are widespread. City climate change adaptation plans often include green spaces and vegetation cover to increase resilience to extreme heat, but these may unintentionally create hospitable microclimates for Ae. aegypti. This possible outcome should be addressed to reduce the potential for outbreaks of Aedes-borne diseases in desert cities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jenna E Coalson
- Mel and Enid Zuckerman College of Public Health, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA.
| | - Danielle M Richard
- Mel and Enid Zuckerman College of Public Health, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA
| | - Mary H Hayden
- Lyda Hill Institute for Human Resilience, University of Colorado, Colorado Springs, CO, USA
| | - John Townsend
- Maricopa County, Environmental Services Department, Vector Control Division, Phoenix, AZ, USA
| | - Dan Damian
- Maricopa County, Environmental Services Department, Vector Control Division, Phoenix, AZ, USA
| | - Kirk Smith
- Maricopa County, Environmental Services Department, Vector Control Division, Phoenix, AZ, USA
| | | | - Kacey C Ernst
- Mel and Enid Zuckerman College of Public Health, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA
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Ernst KC, Walker KR, Castro-Luque AL, Schmidt C, Joy TK, Brophy M, Reyes-Castro P, Díaz-Caravantes RE, Encinas VO, Aguilera A, Gameros M, Cuevas Ruiz RE, Hayden MH, Alvarez G, Monaghan A, Williamson D, Arnbrister J, Gutiérrez EJ, Carrière Y, Riehle MA. Differences in Longevity and Temperature-Driven Extrinsic Incubation Period Correlate with Varying Dengue Risk in the Arizona-Sonora Desert Region. Viruses 2023; 15:851. [PMID: 37112832 PMCID: PMC10146351 DOI: 10.3390/v15040851] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/31/2023] [Revised: 02/23/2023] [Accepted: 03/01/2023] [Indexed: 03/29/2023] Open
Abstract
Dengue transmission is determined by a complex set of interactions between the environment, Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, dengue viruses, and humans. Emergence in new geographic areas can be unpredictable, with some regions having established mosquito populations for decades without locally acquired transmission. Key factors such as mosquito longevity, temperature-driven extrinsic incubation period (EIP), and vector-human contact can strongly influence the potential for disease transmission. To assess how these factors interact at the edge of the geographical range of dengue virus transmission, we conducted mosquito sampling in multiple urban areas located throughout the Arizona-Sonora desert region during the summer rainy seasons from 2013 to 2015. Mosquito population age structure, reflecting mosquito survivorship, was measured using a combination of parity analysis and relative gene expression of an age-related gene, SCP-1. Bloodmeal analysis was conducted on field collected blood-fed mosquitoes. Site-specific temperature was used to estimate the EIP, and this predicted EIP combined with mosquito age were combined to estimate the abundance of "potential" vectors (i.e., mosquitoes old enough to survive the EIP). Comparisons were made across cities by month and year. The dengue endemic cities Hermosillo and Ciudad Obregon, both in the state of Sonora, Mexico, had higher abundance of potential vectors than non-endemic Nogales, Sonora, Mexico. Interestingly, Tucson, Arizona consistently had a higher estimated abundance of potential vectors than dengue endemic regions of Sonora, Mexico. There were no observed city-level differences in species composition of blood meals. Combined, these data offer insights into the critical factors required for dengue transmission at the ecological edge of the mosquito's range. However, further research is needed to integrate an understanding of how social and additional environmental factors constrain and enhance dengue transmission in emerging regions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kacey C. Ernst
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, College of Public Health, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA
| | - Kathleen R. Walker
- Department of Entomology, College of Agriculture and Life Sciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA
| | - A Lucia Castro-Luque
- Centro de Estudios en Salud y Sociedad, El Colegio de Sonora, Hermosillo 83000, Sonora, Mexico
| | - Chris Schmidt
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA
| | - Teresa K. Joy
- Department of Entomology, College of Agriculture and Life Sciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA
| | - Maureen Brophy
- Department of Entomology, College of Agriculture and Life Sciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA
| | - Pablo Reyes-Castro
- Centro de Estudios en Salud y Sociedad, El Colegio de Sonora, Hermosillo 83000, Sonora, Mexico
| | | | - Veronica Ortiz Encinas
- Veterinary Molecular Biology Laboratory, Instituto Tecnológico de Sonora, Obregon 85059, Sonora, Mexico
| | - Alfonso Aguilera
- Veterinary Molecular Biology Laboratory, Instituto Tecnológico de Sonora, Obregon 85059, Sonora, Mexico
| | - Mercedes Gameros
- Centro de Salud Urbano de Nogales, Nogales 84100, Sonora, Mexico
| | | | - Mary H. Hayden
- Lyda Hill Institute for Human Resilience, University of Colorado, Colorado Springs, CO 80918, USA
| | - Gerardo Alvarez
- División de Ciencias Biológicas y de la Salud, Universidad de Sonora, Hermosillo 83000, Sonora, Mexico
| | - Andrew Monaghan
- Center for Research Data & Digital Scholarship, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309, USA
| | - Daniel Williamson
- Department of Entomology, College of Agriculture and Life Sciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA
| | - Josh Arnbrister
- Department of Entomology, College of Agriculture and Life Sciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA
| | - Eileen Jeffrey Gutiérrez
- Divisions of Biostatistics & Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Innovative Genomics Institute, University of California Berkeley, Berkely, CA 94720, USA
| | - Yves Carrière
- Department of Entomology, College of Agriculture and Life Sciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA
| | - Michael A. Riehle
- Department of Entomology, College of Agriculture and Life Sciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA
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Kamal ASMM, Al-Montakim MN, Hasan MA, Mitu MMP, Gazi MY, Uddin MM, Mia MB. Relationship between Urban Environmental Components and Dengue Prevalence in Dhaka City-An Approach of Spatial Analysis of Satellite Remote Sensing, Hydro-Climatic, and Census Dengue Data. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2023; 20:3858. [PMID: 36900868 PMCID: PMC10001735 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph20053858] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/19/2022] [Revised: 02/18/2023] [Accepted: 02/20/2023] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
Dengue fever is a tropical viral disease mostly spread by the Aedes aegypti mosquito across the globe. Each year, millions of people have dengue fever, and many die as a result. Since 2002, the severity of dengue in Bangladesh has increased, and in 2019, it reached its worst level ever. This research used satellite imagery to determine the spatial relationship between urban environmental components (UEC) and dengue incidence in Dhaka in 2019. Land surface temperature (LST), urban heat-island (UHI), land-use-land-cover (LULC), population census, and dengue patient data were evaluated. On the other hand, the temporal association between dengue and 2019 UEC data for Dhaka city, such as precipitation, relative humidity, and temperature, were explored. The calculation indicates that the LST in the research region varies between 21.59 and 33.33 degrees Celsius. Multiple UHIs are present within the city, with LST values ranging from 27 to 32 degrees Celsius. In 2019, these UHIs had a higher incidence of dengue. NDVI values between 0.18 and 1 indicate the presence of vegetation and plants, and the NDWI identifies waterbodies with values between 0 and 1. About 2.51%, 2.66%, 12.81%, and 82% of the city is comprised of water, bare ground, vegetation, and settlement, respectively. The kernel density estimate of dengue data reveals that the majority of dengue cases were concentrated in the city's north edge, south, north-west, and center. The dengue risk map was created by combining all of these spatial outputs (LST, UHI, LULC, population density, and dengue data) and revealed that UHIs of Dhaka are places with high ground temperature and lesser vegetation, waterbodies, and dense urban characteristics, with the highest incidence of dengue. The average yearly temperature in 2019 was 25.26 degrees Celsius. May was the warmest month, with an average monthly temperature of 28.83 degrees Celsius. The monsoon and post-monsoon seasons (middle of March to middle of September) of 2019 sustained higher ambient temperatures (>26 °C), greater relative humidity (>80%), and at least 150 mm of precipitation. The study reveals that dengue transmits faster under climatological circumstances characterized by higher temperatures, relative humidity, and precipitation.
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Affiliation(s)
- A. S. M. Maksud Kamal
- Department of Disaster Science and Climate Resilience, University of Dhaka, Dhaka 1000, Bangladesh
| | - Md. Nahid Al-Montakim
- Geoinformatics Laboratory, Department of Geology, University of Dhaka, Dhaka 1000, Bangladesh
| | - Md. Asif Hasan
- Geoinformatics Laboratory, Department of Geology, University of Dhaka, Dhaka 1000, Bangladesh
| | | | - Md. Yousuf Gazi
- Geoinformatics Laboratory, Department of Geology, University of Dhaka, Dhaka 1000, Bangladesh
| | - Md. Mahin Uddin
- Geoinformatics Laboratory, Department of Geology, University of Dhaka, Dhaka 1000, Bangladesh
| | - Md. Bodruddoza Mia
- Geoinformatics Laboratory, Department of Geology, University of Dhaka, Dhaka 1000, Bangladesh
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Martin JL, Lippi CA, Stewart-Ibarra AM, Ayala EB, Mordecai EA, Sippy R, Heras FH, Blackburn JK, Ryan SJ. Household and climate factors influence Aedes aegypti presence in the arid city of Huaquillas, Ecuador. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2021; 15:e0009931. [PMID: 34784348 PMCID: PMC8651121 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0009931] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/14/2020] [Revised: 12/07/2021] [Accepted: 10/20/2021] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Arboviruses transmitted by Aedes aegypti (e.g., dengue, chikungunya, Zika) are of major public health concern on the arid coastal border of Ecuador and Peru. This high transit border is a critical disease surveillance site due to human movement-associated risk of transmission. Local level studies are thus integral to capturing the dynamics and distribution of vector populations and social-ecological drivers of risk, to inform targeted public health interventions. Our study examines factors associated with household-level Ae. aegypti presence in Huaquillas, Ecuador, while accounting for spatial and temporal effects. From January to May of 2017, adult mosquitoes were collected from a cohort of households (n = 63) in clusters (n = 10), across the city of Huaquillas, using aspirator backpacks. Household surveys describing housing conditions, demographics, economics, travel, disease prevention, and city services were conducted by local enumerators. This study was conducted during the normal arbovirus transmission season (January—May), but during an exceptionally dry year. Household level Ae. aegypti presence peaked in February, and counts were highest in weeks with high temperatures and a week after increased rainfall. Univariate analyses with proportional odds logistic regression were used to explore household social-ecological variables and female Ae. aegypti presence. We found that homes were more likely to have Ae. aegypti when households had interruptions in piped water service. Ae. aegypti presence was less likely in households with septic systems. Based on our findings, infrastructure access and seasonal climate are important considerations for vector control in this city, and even in dry years, the arid environment of Huaquillas supports Ae. aegypti breeding habitat. Mosquito transmitted infectious diseases are a growing concern around the world. The yellow fever mosquito (Aedes aegypti) has been responsible for recent major outbreaks of disease, including dengue fever and Zika. This mosquito prefers to bite humans and lay its eggs in artificial containers such as water tanks and planters. This makes Ae. aegypti well suited to become established in growing urban areas. Controlling these mosquitoes has been an important way to reduce the risk of disease transmission. Studies that are undertaken to understand local factors that contribute to the continued survival of the mosquito can be used to inform control practices. We conducted a study in the largest Ecuadorian city on the border of Peru where we collected adult mosquitoes from houses and surveyed household members about their behaviors, perceptions, and housing infrastructure associated with the mosquito vector. Mosquitoes were most numerous in weeks with high temperatures and a week after increased rainfall. We found that houses that had unreliable water service were more likely have mosquitoes present, while houses that used septic systems were less likely to have mosquitoes present.
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Affiliation(s)
- James L. Martin
- Quantitative Disease Ecology and Conservation (QDEC) Lab, Department of Geography, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, United States of America
- Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, United States of America
| | - Catherine A. Lippi
- Quantitative Disease Ecology and Conservation (QDEC) Lab, Department of Geography, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, United States of America
- Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, United States of America
| | - Anna M. Stewart-Ibarra
- Institute for Global Health & Translational Science, SUNY Upstate Medical University
- Department of Medicine, SUNY Upstate Medical University, Syracuse, New York, United States of America
- InterAmerican Institute for Global Change Research (IAI), Montevideo, Uruguay
| | | | - Erin A. Mordecai
- Biology Department, Stanford University, Stanford, California, United States of America
| | - Rachel Sippy
- Quantitative Disease Ecology and Conservation (QDEC) Lab, Department of Geography, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, United States of America
- Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, United States of America
- Institute for Global Health & Translational Science, SUNY Upstate Medical University
| | - Froilán Heras Heras
- Institute for Global Health & Translational Science, SUNY Upstate Medical University
| | - Jason K. Blackburn
- Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, United States of America
- Spatial Epidemiology and Ecology Research Laboratory, Department of Geography, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, United States of America
| | - Sadie J. Ryan
- Quantitative Disease Ecology and Conservation (QDEC) Lab, Department of Geography, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, United States of America
- Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, United States of America
- * E-mail:
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Hoyos W, Aguilar J, Toro M. Dengue models based on machine learning techniques: A systematic literature review. Artif Intell Med 2021; 119:102157. [PMID: 34531010 DOI: 10.1016/j.artmed.2021.102157] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/19/2020] [Revised: 05/08/2021] [Accepted: 08/17/2021] [Indexed: 12/16/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Dengue modeling is a research topic that has increased in recent years. Early prediction and decision-making are key factors to control dengue. This Systematic Literature Review (SLR) analyzes three modeling approaches of dengue: diagnostic, epidemic, intervention. These approaches require models of prediction, prescription and optimization. This SLR establishes the state-of-the-art in dengue modeling, using machine learning, in the last years. METHODS Several databases were selected to search the articles. The selection was made based on Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) methodology. Sixty-four articles were obtained and analyzed to describe their strengths and limitations. Finally, challenges and opportunities for research on machine-learning for dengue modeling were identified. RESULTS Logistic regression was the most used modeling approach for the diagnosis of dengue (59.1%). The analysis of the epidemic approach showed that linear regression (17.4%) is the most used technique within the spatial analysis. Finally, the most used intervention modeling is General Linear Model with 70%. CONCLUSIONS We conclude that cause-effect models may improve diagnosis and understanding of dengue. Models that manage uncertainty can also be helpful, because of low data-quality in healthcare. Finally, decentralization of data, using federated learning, may decrease computational costs and allow model building without compromising data security.
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Affiliation(s)
- William Hoyos
- Grupo de Investigaciones Microbiológicas y Biomédicas de Córdoba, Universidad de Córdoba, Montería, Colombia; Grupo de Investigación en I+D+i en TIC, Universidad EAFIT, Medellín, Colombia.
| | - Jose Aguilar
- Grupo de Investigación en I+D+i en TIC, Universidad EAFIT, Medellín, Colombia; Centro de Estudios en Microelectrónica y Sistemas Distribuidos, Universidad de Los Andes, Mérida, Venezuela; Universidad de Alcalá, Depto. de Automática, Alcalá de Henares, Spain
| | - Mauricio Toro
- Grupo de Investigación en I+D+i en TIC, Universidad EAFIT, Medellín, Colombia
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Evaluation of Neighborhood Socio-Economic Status, as Measured by the Delphi Method, on Dengue Fever Distribution in Jeddah City, Saudi Arabia. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2021; 18:ijerph18126407. [PMID: 34199216 PMCID: PMC8296257 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph18126407] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/16/2021] [Revised: 06/06/2021] [Accepted: 06/10/2021] [Indexed: 11/21/2022]
Abstract
Dengue fever, a mosquito-transmitted viral disease, is present in many neighborhoods in Jeddah City, Saudi Arabia. One factor likely to affect its distribution is the socio-economic status of local neighborhoods; however, the absence of socio-economic census data in Saudi Arabia has precluded detailed investigation. This study aims to develop a proxy measure of socio-economic status in Jeddah City in order to assess its relationship with the occurrence of dengue fever. The Delphi method was used to assess the socio-economic status (high, medium or low) of local neighborhoods in Jeddah City. A Geographic Information System (GIS) was applied to understand the distribution of dengue fever according to the socio-economic status of Jeddah City neighborhoods. Low-socio-economic status neighborhoods in south Jeddah City, with poor environmental conditions and high levels of poverty and population density, reported most cases of dengue fever. Nevertheless, dengue continues to increase in high socio-economic status neighborhoods in the northern part of the city, possibly due to ideal breeding conditions caused by the presence of standing water associated with high levels of construction. Moreover, the low-socioeconomic-status neighborhoods had the highest average number of cases, being 3.95 times that of high-status neighborhoods for the period 2006–2009. The Delphi approach can produce a useful and robust measure of socio-economic status for use in the analysis of patterns of dengue fever. Results suggest that there are nuances in the relationship between socio-economic status and dengue that indicate that higher status areas are also at risk. A useful additional tool for researchers in Saudi Arabia would be the development of census data or other systematic measures that allow socio-economic status to be included in spatial analyses of dengue fever and other diseases.
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Silva ETCD, Olinda RA, Pachá AS, Costa AO, Brito AL, Pedraza DF. Análise espacial da distribuição dos casos de dengue e sua relação com fatores socioambientais no estado da Paraíba, Brasil, 2007-2016. SAÚDE EM DEBATE 2020. [DOI: 10.1590/0103-1104202012514] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/21/2022] Open
Abstract
RESUMO A dengue é um grave problema de saúde pública, principalmente em países que apresentam condições socioambientais propícias para o desenvolvimento e proliferação do seu agente transmissor. Este estudo teve como objetivo analisar a distribuição espacial da incidência da dengue no estado da Paraíba entre 2007 e 2016, avaliando a existência de dependência geográfica e sua relação com fatores socioeconômicos e ambientais. Estudo ecológico, tendo com unidade de análise os 223 municípios do estado. Utilizaram-se o Índice de Moran global e local e a estatística c de Geary para avaliar a autocorrelação espacial da dengue e a associação com variáveis socioambientais. As análises foram realizadas por meio do software estatístico R Core Team versão 3.3.2. Ao analisar a distribuição de casos de dengue nos municípios da Paraíba, pode-se identificar que a doença vem avançando e acometendo maior número de cidades a cada ano. A doença esteve presente em todos as cidades analisadas, o que demonstrou a necessidade de implementar ações de prevenção da doença em todo o estado. Mediante esta pesquisa, ficou claro que a dengue, no estado da Paraíba, não é determinada por fator único e isolado, mas sim, pela combinação de vários fatores do contexto socioeconômico e ambiental.
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Abstract
This book explores the topic of resilience at the city level. The focus is more on outbreak events at the city level, or how cities should prepare and react in facing the larger events of epidemic and pandemic.
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McHale TC, Romero-Vivas CM, Fronterre C, Arango-Padilla P, Waterlow NR, Nix CD, Falconar AK, Cano J. Spatiotemporal Heterogeneity in the Distribution of Chikungunya and Zika Virus Case Incidences during their 2014 to 2016 Epidemics in Barranquilla, Colombia. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2019; 16:E1759. [PMID: 31109024 PMCID: PMC6572372 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph16101759] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/23/2019] [Revised: 05/13/2019] [Accepted: 05/15/2019] [Indexed: 12/17/2022]
Abstract
Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) and Zika virus (ZIKV) have recently emerged as globally important infections. This study aimed to explore the spatiotemporal heterogeneity in the occurrence of CHIKV and ZIKV outbreaks throughout the major international seaport city of Barranquilla, Colombia in 2014 and 2016 and the potential for clustering. Incidence data were fitted using multiple Bayesian Poisson models based on multiple explanatory variables as potential risk factors identified from other studies and options for random effects. A best fit model was used to analyse their case incidence risks and identify any risk factors during their epidemics. Neighbourhoods in the northern region were hotspots for both CHIKV and ZIKV outbreaks. Additional hotspots occurred in the southwestern and some eastern/southeastern areas during their outbreaks containing part of, or immediately adjacent to, the major circular city road with its import/export cargo warehouses and harbour area. Multivariate conditional autoregressive models strongly identified higher socioeconomic strata and living in a neighbourhood near a major road as risk factors for ZIKV case incidences. These findings will help to appropriately focus vector control efforts but also challenge the belief that these infections are driven by social vulnerability and merit further study both in Barranquilla and throughout the world's tropical and subtropical regions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Thomas C McHale
- Department of Disease Control, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London WCIE 7HT, UK.
| | | | - Claudio Fronterre
- Department of Disease Control, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London WCIE 7HT, UK.
| | - Pedro Arango-Padilla
- Programa de Prevención y Control de Enfermedades Trasmitidas por Vectores, Secretaria de Salud Distrital, Barranquilla 081007, Colombia.
| | - Naomi R Waterlow
- Department of Disease Control, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London WCIE 7HT, UK.
| | - Chad D Nix
- Department of Disease Control, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London WCIE 7HT, UK.
| | - Andrew K Falconar
- Departamento de Medicina, Universidad del Norte, Barranquilla 081007, Colombia.
| | - Jorge Cano
- Department of Disease Control, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London WCIE 7HT, UK.
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Ocampo CB, Mina NJ, Echavarria MI, Acuña M, Caballero A, Navarro A, Aguirre A, Criollo IS, Forero F, Azuero O, Alexander ND. VECTOS: An Integrated System for Monitoring Risk Factors Associated With Urban Arbovirus Transmission. GLOBAL HEALTH: SCIENCE AND PRACTICE 2019; 7:128-137. [PMID: 30926741 PMCID: PMC6538132 DOI: 10.9745/ghsp-d-18-00300] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/09/2018] [Accepted: 02/05/2019] [Indexed: 11/21/2022]
Abstract
To strengthen local surveillance of mosquito-borne viral diseases such as dengue and Zika, a multidisciplinary team developed an integrated web-based information system called VECTOS that captures geo-referenced entomological, epidemiological, and social data. The system has revealed previously unidentified features, such as specific neighborhoods, at persistently high risk. In Colombia, as in many Latin American countries, decision making and development of effective strategies for vector control of urban diseases such as dengue, Zika, and chikungunya is challenging for local health authorities. The heterogeneity of transmission in urban areas requires an efficient risk-based allocation of resources to control measures. With the objective of strengthening the capacity of local surveillance systems to identify variables that favor urban arboviral transmission, a multidisciplinary research team collaborated with the local Secretary of Health officials of 3 municipalities in Colombia (Giron, Yopal, and Buga), in the design of an integrated information system called VECTOS from 2015 to 2018. Information and communication technologies were used to develop 2 mobile applications to capture entomological and social information, as well as a web-based system for the collection, geo-referencing, and integrated information analysis using free geospatial software. This system facilitates the capture and analysis of epidemiological information from the Colombian national surveillance system (SIVIGILA), periodic entomological surveys—mosquito larvae and pupae in premises and peridomestic breeding sites—and surveys of knowledge, attitudes, and practices (KAP) in a spatial and temporal context at the neighborhood level. The data collected in VECTOS are mapped and visualized in graphical reports. The system enables real-time monitoring of weekly epidemiological indicators, entomological indices, and social surveys. Additionally, the system enables risk stratification of neighborhoods, using selected epidemiological, entomological, demographic, and environmental variables. This article describes the VECTOS system and the lessons learned during its development and use. The joint analysis of epidemiological and entomological data within a geographic information system in VECTOS gives better insight to the routinely collected data and identifies the heterogeneity of risk factors between neighborhoods. We expect the system to continue to strengthen vector control programs in evidence-based decision making and in the design and enhanced follow-up of vector control strategies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Clara B Ocampo
- Centro Internacional de Entrenamiento e Investigaciones Médicas (CIDEIM), Santiago de Cali, Colombia. .,Red AEDES, Bucaramanga, Colombia.,Universidad ICESI, Santiago de Cali, Colombia
| | - Neila J Mina
- Centro Internacional de Entrenamiento e Investigaciones Médicas (CIDEIM), Santiago de Cali, Colombia
| | - Maria I Echavarria
- Centro Internacional de Entrenamiento e Investigaciones Médicas (CIDEIM), Santiago de Cali, Colombia.,Universidad ICESI, Santiago de Cali, Colombia
| | - Miguel Acuña
- Corporación para la investigación de la Corrosión (CIC), Piedecuesta Santander, Colombia
| | - Alexi Caballero
- Corporación para la investigación de la Corrosión (CIC), Piedecuesta Santander, Colombia
| | | | | | | | - Francia Forero
- Municipal Secretariat of Health form Giron, Giron, Colombia
| | - Oscar Azuero
- Municipal Secretariat of Health from Buga, Buga, Colombia
| | - Neal D Alexander
- Centro Internacional de Entrenamiento e Investigaciones Médicas (CIDEIM), Santiago de Cali, Colombia.,Universidad ICESI, Santiago de Cali, Colombia
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11
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Costa SDSB, Branco MDRFC, Aquino Junior J, Rodrigues ZMR, Queiroz RCDS, Araujo AS, Câmara APB, Santos PSD, Pereira EDA, Silva MDSD, Costa FRVD, Santos AVDD, Medeiros MNL, Alcântara Júnior JO, Vasconcelos VV, Santos AMD, Silva AAMD. Spatial analysis of probable cases of dengue fever, chikungunya fever and zika virus infections in Maranhao State, Brazil. Rev Inst Med Trop Sao Paulo 2018; 60:e62. [PMID: 30379229 PMCID: PMC6201739 DOI: 10.1590/s1678-9946201860062] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/25/2018] [Accepted: 09/17/2018] [Indexed: 11/26/2022] Open
Abstract
Dengue fever, chikungunya fever, and zika virus infections are increasing public
health problems in the world, the last two diseases having recently emerged in
Brazil. This ecological study employed spatial analysis of probable cases of
dengue fever, chikungunya fever, and zika virus infections reported to the
National Mandatory Reporting System (SINAN) in Maranhao State from 2015 to 2016.
The software GeoDa version 1.10 was used for calculating global and local Moran
indices. The global Moran index identified a significant autocorrelation of
incidence rates of dengue (I=0.10; p=0.009) and zika (I=0.07; p=0.03). The study
found a positive spatial correlation between dengue and the population density
(I=0.31; p<0.001) and a negative correlation with the Performance Index of
Unified Health System (PIUHS) by basic care coverage (I=-0.08; p=0.01).
Regarding chikungunya fever, there were positive spatial correlations with the
population density (I=0.06; p=0.03) and the Municipal Human Development Index
(MHDI) (I=0.10; p=0.002), and a negative correlation with the Gini index
(I=-0.01; p<0.001) and the PIUHS by basic care coverage (I=-0.18;
p<0.001). Lastly, we found positive spatial correlations between Zika virus
infections and the population density (I=0.13; p=0.005) and the MHDI (I=0.12;
p<0.001), as well as a negative correlation with the Gini index (I=-0.11;
p<0.001) and the PIUHS by basic care coverage (I=-0.05; p=0.03). Our results
suggest that several socio-demographic factors influenced the occurrence of
dengue fever, chikungunya fever, and zika virus infections in Maranhao
State.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | - José Aquino Junior
- Universidade Federal do Maranhão, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Saúde e Ambiente, São Luís, Maranhão, Brazil
| | | | | | - Adriana Soraya Araujo
- Universidade Federal do Maranhão, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Saúde e Ambiente, São Luís, Maranhão, Brazil
| | - Ana Patrícia Barros Câmara
- Universidade Federal do Maranhão, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Saúde Coletiva São Luís, Maranhão, Brazil
| | | | | | | | | | | | - Maria Nilza Lima Medeiros
- Universidade CEUMA, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Gestão de Programas e Serviços de Saúde, São Luís, Maranhão, Brazil
| | | | - Vitor Vieira Vasconcelos
- Universidade Federal do ABC, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Ciência e Tecnologia Ambiental, São Bernardo do Campo, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Alcione Miranda Dos Santos
- Universidade Federal do Maranhão, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Saúde Coletiva São Luís, Maranhão, Brazil
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