The 2015-2016 malaria epidemic in Northern Uganda; What are the implications for malaria control interventions?

A retrospective analysis of P. falciparum drug resistance markers detects an early (2016/17) high prevalence of the k13 C469Y mutation in asymptomatic infections in Northern Uganda

The emergence of drug-resistant Plasmodium falciparum parasites in sub-Saharan Africa will substantially challenge malaria control. Here, we evaluated the frequency of common drug resistance markers among adolescents from Northern Uganda with asymptomatic infections. We used an established amplicon deep sequencing strategy to screen dried blood spot samples collected from 2016 to 2017 during a reported malaria epidemic within the districts of Kitgum and Pader in Northern Uganda. We screened single-nucleotide polymorphisms within: kelch13 (Pfk13), dihydropteroate synthase (Pfdhps), multidrug resistance-1 (Pfmdr1), dihydrofolate reductase (Pfdhfr), and apical membrane antigen (Pfama1) genes. Within the study population, the median age was 15 years (14.3-15.0, 95% CI), and 54.9% (78/142) were Plasmodium positive by 18S rRNA qPCR, which were subsequently targeted for sequencing analysis. We observed a high frequency of resistance markers particularly for sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP), with no wild-type-only parasites observed for Pfdhfr (N51I, C59R, and S108N) and Pfdhps (A437G and K540E) mutations. Within Pfmdr1, mixed infections were common for NF/NY (98.5%). While for artemisinin resistance, in kelch13, there was a high frequency of C469Y (34%). Using the pattern for Pfama1, we found a high level of polygenomic infections with all individuals presenting with complexity of infection greater than 2 with a median of 6.9. The high frequency of the quintuple SP drug-resistant parasites and the C469Y artemisinin resistance-associated mutation in asymptomatic individuals suggests an earlier high prevalence than previously reported from symptomatic malaria surveillance studies (in 2016/2017). Our data demonstrate the urgency for routine genomic surveillance programs throughout Africa and the value of deep sequencing.

Organochlorine pesticides and their markers of exposure in serum and urine of children from a nodding syndrome hotspot in northern Uganda, east Africa

Nodding syndrome (NS) is a neurologic disorder of unknown etiology characterized by vertical head nodding that has affected children aged 5-18 years in East Africa. Previous studies have examined relationships with biological agents (e.g., nematodes, measles, and fungi), but there is limited data on the possible contributions of neurotoxic environmental chemicals frequently used as pesticides/insecticides to the development and progression of this disorder. We examined the levels of persistent organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) in children (5-18 years old) from Kitgum District, Northern Uganda. These children previously lived in internally displaced people's (IDP) camps, where they were exposed to various health risks, including contaminated food and water. Exposure to OCPs through contaminated food and water is postulated here as a potential contributor to NS etiology. We analyzed serum (n = 75) and urine (n = 150) samples from children diagnosed with NS, and from seizure-free household controls (HC), and community controls (CC). Samples were extracted using solid-phase extraction (SPE) and extracts were analyzed for OCPs using gas chromatography with a triple quadrupole mass spectrometry (GC-MS/MS). Mean levels of total (∑) ∑OCPs in serum samples from NS, HC and CC subjects were 23.3 ± 2.82, 21.1 ± 3.40 and 20.9 ± 4.24 ng/mL, respectively, while in urine samples were 1.86 ± 1.03, 2.83 ± 1.42, and 2.14 ± 0.94 ng/mL, respectively. Correlation and linear regression analysis indicated that potential markers for ∑hexachlorocyclohexanes (HCHs), ∑chlordane compounds (CHLs), ∑endosulfan and ∑dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethanes (DDTs) were γ-HCH, heptachlor-exo-epoxide, endosulfan-α and p,p'-DDD in NS cases while in controls were α -HCH, heptachlor, endosulfan-α and p,p'-DDE, respectively. Since, in some instances, higher OCP levels were found in controls vs. NS cases, we conclude that exposure to organochlorine pesticides is unlikely to be associated with the etiology of NS.

Malaria positivity rate trend analysis at water resources development project of Wonji Sugar Estate Oromia, Ethiopia

Evidence on the trends of the proportion of malaria infections detected by routine passive case detection at health facilities is important for public health decision making especially in areas moving towards elimination. The objective was to assess nine years of trends on clinical malaria infections detected at health facility and its associated climate factors, in the water resource development set up of Wonji sugar estate, Oromia, Ethiopia. Retrospective data were collected from malaria-suspected patient recording logbook at Wonji sugar factory's primary hospital. Monthly average meteorological data were obtained from the estate meteorological station. Data were collected from April through June 2018 and January 2022. The data were analyzed using Stata version 16.0 software for Chi-square and regression analysis. Over the last nine years, 34,388 cases were legible for analysis with complete data. Of these, 11.75% (4039/34388) were positive for clinical malaria. Plasmodium vivax test positivity was the highest proportion (8.2%, n = 2820) followed by Plasmodium falciparum (3.48%, n = 1197) and mixed infections (P. falciparum and P. vivax, 0.06%, n = 21). The odds of being positive for malaria was highest in males (AOR = 1.46; 95%CI = 1.36-1.52; P < 0.001) compared to females and in older individuals of above 15 years old (AOR = 4.55, 95%CI = 4.01-5.17, P < 0.001) followed by school-aged children (5-15 years old) (AOR = 2.16; 95%CI = 1.88-2.49, P < 0.001). There was no significant variation in the proportion of malaria-positive cases in the dry and wet seasons (P = 0.059). Malaria test positivity rates were associated with average monthly rainfall (AdjIRR = 1.00; 95%CI = 1.00-1.001, P < 0.001) while negatively associated with average monthly minim temperature (adjIRR = 0.94; 95%CI = 0.94-0.95; P < 0.001) and average monthly relative humidity (adjIRR = 0.99, 95%CI = 0.99-1.00, P = 0.023). There was year-round malaria transmission, adults especially males and school children frequently tested malaria positive. Hence, alternative vector management tools like larval source management have to be deployed besides ITNs and IRS in such water development areas to achieve the malaria elimination goal.

Sibling Species Composition and Susceptibility Status of Anopheles gambiae s.l. to Insecticides Used for Indoor Residual Spraying in Eastern Uganda

Background

Malaria remains one of the most critical disease causing morbidity and mortality in Uganda. Indoor residual spraying (IRS) and the use of insecticide-treated bed nets are currently the predominant malaria vector control interventions. However, the emergence and spread of insecticide resistance among malaria vectors threaten the continued effectiveness of these interventions to control the disease, particularly in high transmission areas. To inform decisions on vector control, the current study evaluated the Anopheles malaria vector species and their susceptibility levels to 0.1% bendiocarb and 0.25% pirimiphos-methyl insecticides used in IRS intervention program in Namutumba district, Eastern Uganda.

Methods

Anopheles larvae were collected between March and May 2017 from different breeding sites in the parishes of Nsinze and Nawaikona in Nsinze sub-county and reared to adults to assess the susceptibility status of populations in the study area. Mosquitoes were identified using morphological keys and species-specific polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assays. Susceptibility tests were conducted on 2- to 5-day-old non-blood-fed adult female Anopheles that emerged using insecticide-impregnated papers with 0.1% bendiocarb and 0.25% pirimiphos-methyl following standard World Health Organization (WHO) insecticide susceptibility bioassays. A Log-probit regression model was used to derive the knock-down rates for 50% and 95% of exposed mosquitoes.

Results

A total of 700 mosquito larvae were collected from different breeding sites. Morphological identification showed that 500 individuals that emerged belonged to Anopheles gambiae sensu lato (s.l.), the main malaria vector. The PCR results showed that the dominant sibling species under the A. gambiae complex was Anopheles arabiensis 99.5% (395/397). WHO bioassay tests revealed that the population of mosquitoes exhibited high levels of susceptibility (24-hour post-exposure mortality 98-100%) to both insecticides tested. The median knock-down time, KDT₅₀, ranged from 6.6 to 81.4 minutes, while the KDT₉₅ ranged from 21.6 to 118.9 minutes for 0.25% pirimiphos-methyl. The KDT₅₀ for 0.1% bendiocarb ranged from 2.8 to 62.9 minutes, whereas the KDT₉₅ ranged from 36.0 to 88.5 minutes.

Conclusions

These findings indicate that bendiocarb and pirimiphos-methyl are still effective against the major malaria vector, A. arabiensis in Nsinze sub-county, Namutumba district, Uganda and can be effectively used for IRS. The study has provided baseline information on the insecticide susceptibility status on malaria vectors in the study area. However, routine continuous monitoring program of insecticide susceptibility and malaria vector composition is required so as to guide future decisions on insecticide use for IRS intervention toward malaria elimination and to track future changes in vector population.

Vulnerability of populations to malaria after indoor residual spraying is withdrawn from areas where its use has previously been sustained: a protocol for a systematic review

INTRODUCTION

With its proven effectiveness, indoor residual spraying (IRS) as a malaria vector control strategy forms one of the reliable vector control strategies, especially when at least 80% of the population is covered. However, to date, there is uncertainty regarding the consequences of IRS withdrawal on malaria control when there is no clear exit strategy in place. Therefore, there is a need to comprehensively update literature regarding malaria burden indicators when IRS is withdrawn following sustained use.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This protocol follows the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. A systematic search of studies published between 2000 and 2022 will be performed in CINAHL, Embase, MEDLINE, ProQuest, PsychInfo, Scopus and OpenGrey. Preset eligibility criteria will be used to identify studies for inclusion by two independent reviewers. Title/abstracts will first be screened and potentially eligible ones screened using their full-text publications. Any conflicts/discrepancies at the two stages will be resolved through regular discussion sessions. Included studies will be extracted to capture study and patient characteristics and relevant outcomes (malaria incidence and malaria vector abundance). Relevant tools will be used to assess the risk of bias in the studies measuring the impact of withdrawal. A meta-analysis will be performed if sufficient homogeneity exists; otherwise, data arising will be presented using tables and by employing narrative synthesis techniques. Heterogeneity will be assessed using a combination of visual inspection of the forest plot along with consideration of the χ² test and I² statistic results.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethics approval is not applicable for this study since no original data will be collected. The results will be disseminated through peer-reviewed publications and conference presentations. Furthermore, this systematic review will inform the design of exit strategies for IRS-based programmes in malaria-endemic areas.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42022310655.

Malaria outbreak facilitated by increased mosquito breeding sites near houses and cessation of indoor residual spraying, Kole district, Uganda, January-June 2019

BACKGROUND

In June 2019, surveillance data from the Uganda's District Health Information System revealed an outbreak of malaria in Kole District. Analysis revealed that cases had exceeded the outbreak threshold from January 2019. The Ministry of Health deployed our team to investigate the areas and people affected, identify risk factors for disease transmission, and recommend control and prevention measures.

METHODS

We conducted an outbreak investigation involving a matched case-control study. We defined a confirmed case as a positive malaria test in a resident of Aboke, Akalo, Alito, and Bala sub-counties of Kole District January-June 2019. We identified cases by reviewing outpatient health records. Exposures were assessed in a 1:1 matched case-control study (n = 282) in Aboke sub-county. We selected cases systematically from 10 villages using probability proportionate to size and identified age- and village-matched controls. We conducted entomological and environmental assessments to identify mosquito breeding sites. We plotted epidemic curves and overlaid rainfall, and indoor residual spraying (IRS). Case-control exposures were combined into: breeding site near house, proximity to swamp and breeding site, and proximity to swamp; these were compared to no exposure in a logistic regression analysis.

RESULTS

Of 18,737 confirmed case-patients (AR = 68/1,000), Aboke sub-county residents (AR = 180/1,000), children < 5 years (AR = 94/1,000), and females (AR = 90/1,000) were most affected. Longitudinal analysis of surveillance data showed decline in cases after an IRS campaign in 2017 but an increase after IRS cessation in 2018-2019. Overlay of rainfall and case data showed two malaria upsurges during 2019, occurring 35-42 days after rainfall increases. Among 141 case-patients and 141 controls, the combination of having mosquito breeding sites near the house and proximity to swamps increased the odds of malaria 6-fold (OR = 6.6, 95% CI = 2.24-19.7) compared to no exposures. Among 84 abandoned containers found near case-patients' and controls' houses, 14 (17%) had mosquito larvae. Adult Anopheles mosquitoes, larvae, pupae, and pupal exuviae were identified near affected houses.

CONCLUSION

Stagnant water formed by increased rainfall likely provided increased breeding sites that drove this outbreak. Cessation of IRS preceded the malaria upsurges. We recommend re-introduction of IRS and removal of mosquito breeding sites in Kole District.

Characterization of Anopheles gambiae D7 salivary proteins as markers of human-mosquito bite contact

BACKGROUND

Malaria is transmitted when infected Anopheles mosquitoes take a blood meal. During this process, the mosquitoes inject a cocktail of bioactive proteins that elicit antibody responses in humans and could be used as biomarkers of exposure to mosquito bites. This study evaluated the utility of IgG responses to members of the Anopheles gambiae D7 protein family as serological markers of human-vector contact.

METHODS

The D7L2, D7r1, D7r2, D7r3, D7r4 and SG6 salivary proteins from An. gambiae were expressed as recombinant antigens in Escherichia coli. Antibody responses to the salivary proteins were compared in Europeans with no prior exposure to malaria and lifelong residents of Junju in Kenya and Kitgum in Uganda where the intensity of malaria transmission is moderate and high, respectively. In addition, to evaluate the feasibility of using anti-D7 IgG responses as a tool to evaluate the impact of vector control interventions, we compared responses between individuals using insecticide-treated bednets to those who did not in Junju, Kenya where bednet data were available.

RESULTS

We show that both the long and short forms of the D7 salivary gland antigens elicit a strong antibody response in humans. IgG responses against the D7 antigens reflected the transmission intensities of the three study areas, with the highest to lowest responses observed in Kitgum (northern Uganda), Junju (Kenya) and malaria-naïve Europeans, respectively. Specifically, the long form D7L2 induced an IgG antibody response that increased with age and that was lower in individuals who slept under a bednet, indicating its potential as a serological tool for estimating human-vector contact and monitoring the effectiveness of vector control interventions.

CONCLUSIONS

This study reveals that D7L2 salivary antigen has great potential as a biomarker of exposure to mosquito bites and as a tool for assessing the efficacy of vector control strategies such as bednet use.

Epilepsy in Onchocerca volvulus Sero-Positive Patients From Northern Uganda-Clinical, EEG and Brain Imaging Features

Globally, epilepsy is the most common chronic neurological disorder. The incidence in sub-Saharan Africa is 2-3 times higher than that in high income countries. Infection by Onchocerca volvulus may be an underlying risk factor for the high burden and based upon epidemiological associations, has been proposed to cause a group of disorders—Onchocerca associated epilepsies (OAE) like nodding syndrome (NS). To improve our understanding of the disease spectrum, we described the clinical, electroencephalographic (EEG) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) features of children with epilepsy and sero-positive for Onchocerca volvulus (possible OAEs other than nodding syndrome). Twenty-nine children and adolescents with non-nodding syndrome OAE in northern Uganda were enrolled. A diagnosis of OAE was made in patients with epilepsy and seizure onset after age 3 years, no reported exposure to perinatal severe febrile illness or traumatic brain injury, no syndromic epilepsy diagnosis and a positive Ov-16 ELISA test. Detailed clinical evaluation including psychiatric, diagnostic EEG, a diagnostic brain MRI (in 10 patients) and laboratory testing were performed. Twenty participants (69%) were male. The mean age was 15.9 (standard deviation [SD] 1.9) years while the mean age at seizure onset was 9.8 (SD 2.9) years. All reported normal early childhood development. The most common clinical presentation was a tonic-clonic seizure. The median number of seizures was 2 (IQR 1–4) in the previous month. No specific musculoskeletal changes, or cranial nerve palsies were reported, neither were any vision, hearing and speech difficulties observed. The interictal EEG was abnormal in the majority with slow wave background activity in 52% (15/29) while 41% (12/29) had focal epileptiform activity. The brain MRI showed mild to moderate cerebellar atrophy and varying degrees of atrophy of the frontal, parietal and occipital lobes. The clinical spectrum of epilepsies associated with Onchocerca may be broader than previously described. In addition, focal onset tonic-clonic seizures, cortical and cerebellar atrophy may be important brain imaging and clinical features.

Systemic and cerebrospinal fluid immune and complement activation in Ugandan children and adolescents with long-standing nodding syndrome: A case-control study

OBJECTIVE

Nodding syndrome is a poorly understood epileptic encephalopathy characterized by a unique seizure type-head nodding-and associated with Onchocerca volvulus infection. We hypothesized that altered immune activation in the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) and plasma of children with nodding syndrome may yield insights into the pathophysiology and progression of this seizure disorder.

METHOD

We conducted a case-control study of 154 children (8 years or older) with long-standing nodding syndrome and 154 healthy age-matched community controls in 3 districts of northern Uganda affected by nodding syndrome. Control CSF samples were obtained from Ugandan children in remission from hematological malignancy during routine follow-up. Markers of immune activation and inflammation (cytokines and chemokines) and complement activation (C5a) were measured in plasma and CSF using ELISA or Multiplex Luminex assays. O volvulus infection was assessed by serology for anti-OV-16 IgG levels.

RESULTS

The mean (SD) age of the population was 15.1 (SD: 1.9) years, and the mean duration of nodding syndrome from diagnosis to enrollment was 8.3 (SD: 2.7) years. The majority with nodding syndrome had been exposed to O volvulus (147/154 (95.4%)) compared with community children (86/154 (55.8%)), with an OR of 17.04 (95% CI: 7.33, 45.58), P < .001. C5a was elevated in CSF of children with nodding syndrome compared to controls (P < .0001). The levels of other CSF markers tested were comparable between cases and controls after adjusting for multiple comparisons. Children with nodding syndrome had lower plasma levels of IL-10, APRIL, CCL5 (RANTES), CCL2, CXCL13, and MMP-9 compared with community controls (P < .05 for all; multiple comparisons). Plasma CRP was elevated in children with nodding syndrome compared to community children and correlated with disease severity.

SIGNIFICANCE

Nodding syndrome is associated with exposure to O. volvulus. Compared to controls, children with long-standing symptoms of nodding syndrome show evidence of complement activation in CSF and altered immune activation in plasma.

Relationships between test positivity rate, total laboratory confirmed cases of malaria, and malaria incidence in high burden settings of Uganda: an ecological analysis

BACKGROUND

Malaria surveillance is critical for monitoring changes in malaria morbidity over time. National Malaria Control Programmes often rely on surrogate measures of malaria incidence, including the test positivity rate (TPR) and total laboratory confirmed cases of malaria (TCM), to monitor trends in malaria morbidity. However, there are limited data on the accuracy of TPR and TCM for predicting temporal changes in malaria incidence, especially in high burden settings.

METHODS

This study leveraged data from 5 malaria reference centres (MRCs) located in high burden settings over a 15-month period from November 2018 through January 2020 as part of an enhanced health facility-based surveillance system established in Uganda. Individual level data were collected from all outpatients including demographics, laboratory test results, and village of residence. Estimates of malaria incidence were derived from catchment areas around the MRCs. Temporal relationships between monthly aggregate measures of TPR and TCM relative to estimates of malaria incidence were examined using linear and exponential regression models.

RESULTS

A total of 149,739 outpatient visits to the 5 MRCs were recorded. Overall, malaria was suspected in 73.4% of visits, 99.1% of patients with suspected malaria received a diagnostic test, and 69.7% of those tested for malaria were positive. Temporal correlations between monthly measures of TPR and malaria incidence using linear and exponential regression models were relatively poor, with small changes in TPR frequently associated with large changes in malaria incidence. Linear regression models of temporal changes in TCM provided the most parsimonious and accurate predictor of changes in malaria incidence, with adjusted R² values ranging from 0.81 to 0.98 across the 5 MRCs. However, the slope of the regression lines indicating the change in malaria incidence per unit change in TCM varied from 0.57 to 2.13 across the 5 MRCs, and when combining data across all 5 sites, the R² value reduced to 0.38.

CONCLUSIONS

In high malaria burden areas of Uganda, site-specific temporal changes in TCM had a strong linear relationship with malaria incidence and were a more useful metric than TPR. However, caution should be taken when comparing changes in TCM across sites.

Increased malaria parasitaemia among adults living with HIV who have discontinued cotrimoxazole prophylaxis in Kitgum district, Uganda

Background

Although WHO recommends cotrimoxazole (CTX) discontinuation among HIV patients who have undergone immune recovery and are living in areas of low prevalence of malaria, some countries including Uganda recommend CTX discontinuation despite having a high malaria burden. We estimated the prevalence and factors associated with malaria parasitaemia among adults living with HIV attending hospital outpatient clinic before and after discontinuation of CTX prophylaxis.

Methods

Between March and April 2019, 599 participants aged 18 years and above, and attending Kitgum hospital HIV clinic in Uganda were enrolled in a cross study. A standardized questionnaire was administered and physical examination conducted. A finger-prick blood sample was collected for identification of malaria parasites by microscopy. The prevalence of parasitaemia was estimated and compared among participants on and those who had discontinued CTX prophylaxis, and factors associated with malaria parasitaemia assessed.

Results

Of the enrolled participants, 27 (4.5%) had malaria parasites and 452 (75.5%) had stopped CTX prophylaxis. Prevalence of malaria parasitaemia was significantly higher in participants who had stopped CTX prophylaxis (5.5% versus 1.4% p = 0.03) and increased with increasing duration since the discontinuation of prophylaxis. Compared to participants taking CTX, those who discontinued prophylaxis for 3–5 months and >5 months were more likely to have malaria parasites (adjusted prevalence ratio (aPR) = 1.64, 95% CI 0.37–7.29, p = 0.51, and aPR = 6.06, 95% CI 1.34–27.3, P = 0.02). Low CD4 count (< 250cells/mm³) was also associated with increased risk of having parasites (aPR = 4.31, 95% CI 2.13–8.73, p <0.001).

Conclusion

People from malaria endemic settings living with HIV have a higher prevalence of malaria parasitaemia following discontinuation of CTX compared to those still on prophylaxis. The risk increased with increasing duration since discontinuation of the prophylaxis. HIV patients should not discontinue CTX prophylaxis in areas of Uganda where the burden of malaria remains high. Other proven malaria control interventions may also be encouraged in HIV patients following discontinuation of CTX prophylaxis.

Anopheline Mosquito Species Composition, Kdr Mutation Frequency, and Parasite Infectivity Status in Northern Tanzania

The scaling-up of malaria control interventions in northern Tanzania has resulted in a decline in malaria prevalence and vector species composition. Despite this achievement, residual malaria transmission remains a concern in the area. The main aim of this study was to investigate malaria vector species composition, parasite infectivity rates, and the presence of insecticide knockdown resistance (kdr) mutations in three sites that have experienced a significant decline in malaria in northern Tanzania. Adult mosquitoes were sampled using light traps in houses and hand-aspirators in cowsheds, whereas the standard dipping method was used for sampling mosquito larvae. Adult mosquitoes identified as Anopheles gambiae s.l. and An. funestus s.l. and larval stages III and IV of An. gambiae s.l. were stored in absolute ethanol for further laboratory molecular identification. The identified species in the An. gambiae complex were An. gambiae s.s., An. merus, An. quadriannulatus, and An. arabiensis, whereas the An. funestus group comprised An. funestus s.s., An. rivulorum, and An. leesoni. For An. gambiae s.s. analyzed from Zeneth, 47.6% were kdr-East homozygous susceptible, 35.7% kdr-East heterozygous resistant, 9.6% kdr-East homozygous resistant, and 7.1% undefined, whereas specimens from Kwakibuyu were 45.5% kdr-East homozygous susceptible, 32.7% kdr-East heterozygous resistant, 16.3% kdr-East homozygous resistant, and 5.5% undefined. There were no kdr-West alleles identified from any specimen. The overall malaria parasite infectivity rate was 0.75%. No infections were found in Moshi. The findings indicate that populations of the major malaria vector mosquitoes are still present in the study area, with An. funestus taking a lead in malaria transmission.

A systematic review of changing malaria disease burden in sub-Saharan Africa since 2000: comparing model predictions and empirical observations

BACKGROUND

The most widely used measures of declining burden of malaria across sub-Saharan Africa are predictions from geospatial models. These models apply spatiotemporal autocorrelations and covariates to parasite prevalence data and then use a function of parasite prevalence to predict clinical malaria incidence. We attempted to assess whether trends in malaria cases, based on local surveillance, were similar to those captured by Malaria Atlas Project (MAP) incidence surfaces.

METHODS

We undertook a systematic review (PROSPERO International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews; ID = CRD42019116834) to identify empirical data on clinical malaria in Africa since 2000, where reports covered at least 5 continuous years. The trends in empirical data were then compared with the trends of time-space matched clinical malaria incidence from MAP using the Spearman rank correlation. The correlations (rho) between changes in empirically observed and modelled estimates of clinical malaria were displayed by forest plots and examined by meta-regression.

RESULTS

Sixty-seven articles met our inclusion criteria representing 124 sites from 24 African countries. The single most important factor explaining the correlation between empirical observations and modelled predictions was the slope of empirically observed data over time (rho = - 0.989; 95% CI - 0.998, - 0.939; p < 0.001), i.e. steeper declines were associated with a stronger correlation between empirical observations and modelled predictions. Factors such as quality of study, reported measure of malaria and endemicity were only slightly predictive of such correlations.

CONCLUSIONS

In many locations, both local surveillance data and modelled estimates showed declines in malaria burden and hence similar trends. However, there was a weak association between individual surveillance datasets and the modelled predictions where stalling in progress or resurgence of malaria burden was empirically observed. Surveillance data were patchy, indicating a need for improved surveillance to strengthen both empiric reporting and modelled predictions.

Malaria Outbreak Facilitated by Appearance of Vector-Breeding Sites after Heavy Rainfall and Inadequate Preventive Measures: Nwoya District, Northern Uganda, February-May 2018

Background

Malaria is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in Uganda. In April 2018, malaria cases surged in Nwoya District, Northern Uganda, exceeding expected limits and thereby requiring epidemic response. We investigated this outbreak to estimate its magnitude, identify exposure factors for transmission, and recommend evidence-based control measures.

Methods

We defined a malaria case as onset of fever in a resident of Anaka subcounty, Koch Goma subcounty, and Nwoya Town Council, Nwoya District, with a positive rapid diagnostic test or microscopy for malaria from 1 February to 25 May 2018. We reviewed medical records in all health facilities of affected subcounties to find cases. In a case-control study, we compared exposure factors between case-persons and asymptomatic controls matched by age and village. We also conducted entomological assessments on vector density and behavior.

Results

We identified 3,879 case-persons (attack rate [AR] = 6.5%) and two deaths (case-fatality rate = 5.2/10,000). Females (AR = 8.1%) were more affected than males (AR = 4.7%) (p < 0.0001). Of all age groups, 5–18 years (AR = 8.4%) were most affected. Heavy rain started in early March 2018, and a propagated outbreak followed in the first week of April 2018. In the case-control study, 55% (59/107) of case-persons and 18% (19/107) of controls had stagnant water around households for several days following rainfall (OR_M-H = 5.6, 95% CI = 3.0–11); 25% (27/107) of case-persons and 51% (55/107) of controls wore full extremity covering clothes during evening hours (OR_M-H = 0.30, 95% CI = 0.20–0.60); 71% (76/107) of case-persons and 85% (91/107) of controls slept under a long-lasting insecticide-treated net (LLIN) 14 days before symptom onset (OR_M-H = 0.43, 95% CI = 0.22–0.85); 37% (40/107) of case-persons and 52% (56/107) of controls had access to at least one LLIN per 2 household members (OR_M-H = 0.54, 95% CI = 0.30–0.97). Entomological assessment indicated active breeding sites in the entire study area; Anopheles gambiae sensu lato species were the predominant vector.

Conclusion

Increased vector-breeding sites after heavy rainfall and inadequate malaria preventive measures were found to have contributed to this outbreak. We recommended increasing coverage for LLINs and larviciding breeding sites in the area.

Indoor residual spraying for malaria control in sub-Saharan Africa 1997 to 2017: an adjusted retrospective analysis

BACKGROUND

Indoor residual spraying (IRS) is a key tool for controlling and eliminating malaria by targeting vectors. To support the development of effective intervention strategies it is important to understand the impact of vector control tools on malaria incidence and on the spread of insecticide resistance. In 2006, the World Health Organization (WHO) stated that countries should report on coverage and impact of IRS, yet IRS coverage data are still sparse and unspecific. Here, the subnational coverage of IRS across sub-Saharan Africa for the four main insecticide classes from 1997 to 2017 were estimated.

METHODS

Data on IRS deployment were collated from a variety of sources, including the President's Malaria Initiative spray reports and National Malaria Control Programme reports, for all 46 malaria-endemic countries in sub-Saharan Africa from 1997 to 2017. The data were mapped to the applicable administrative divisions and the proportion of households sprayed for each of the four main insecticide classes; carbamates, organochlorines, organophosphates and pyrethroids was calculated.

RESULTS

The number of countries implementing IRS increased considerably over time, although the focal nature of deployment means the number of people protected remains low. From 1997 to 2010, DDT and pyrethroids were commonly used, then partly replaced by carbamates from 2011 and by organophosphates from 2013. IRS deployment since the publication of resistance management guidelines has typically avoided overlap between pyrethroid IRS and ITN use. However, annual rotations of insecticide classes with differing modes of action are not routinely used.

CONCLUSION

This study highlights the gaps between policy and practice, emphasizing the continuing potential of IRS to drive resistance. The data presented here can improve studies on the impact of IRS on malaria incidence and help to guide future malaria control efforts.