Validation of the CUETO scoring model for predicting recurrence and progression in T1G3 urothelial carcinoma of the bladder

Simulation of the effects of molecular urine markers in follow-up of patients with high-risk non-muscle invasive bladder cancer

A plethora of urine markers for the management of patients with bladder cancer has been developed and studied in the past. However, the clinical impact of urine testing on patient management remains obscure. The goal of this manuscript is to identify scenarios for the potential use of molecular urine markers in the follow-up of patients with high-risk non-muscle-invasive BC (NMIBC) and estimate potential risks and benefits. Information on the course of disease of patients with high-risk NMIBC and performance data of a point-of-care test (UBC rapid™), an MCM-5 directed ELISA (ADXBLADDER™), and 2 additional novel assays targeting alterations of mRNA expression and DNA methylation (Xpert bladder cancer monitor™, Epicheck™) were retrieved from high-quality trials and/or meta-analyses. In addition, the sensitivity of white light cystoscopy (WLC) and the impact of a urine marker result on the performance of WLC were estimated based on fluorescence cystoscopy data and information from the CeFub trial. This information was applied to different scenarios in patient follow-up and sensitivity, estimated number of cystoscopies, and the numbers needed to diagnose were calculated. The sensitivity of guideline-based regular follow-up (SOC) at 1 year was calculated at 96%. For different marker-supported strategies sensitivities ranging from 77% to 97.9% were estimated. Calculations suggest that several strategies are effective for the SOC. While for the SOC 24.6 WLCs were required to diagnose 1 tumor recurrence (NND), this NND dropped below 5 in some marker-supported strategies. Based on the results of this simulation, a marker-supported follow-up of patients with HR NMIBC is safe and offers the option to significantly reduce the number of WLCs. Further research focusing on prospective randomized trials is needed to finally find a way to implement urine markers into clinical decision-making.

Intermediate and high-risk non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer: an overview of epidemiology, burden, and unmet needs

Bladder cancer ranks among the most common cancers globally. At diagnosis, 75% of patients have non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC). Patients with low-risk NMIBC have a good prognosis, but recurrence and progression rates remain high in intermediate- and high-risk NMIBC, despite the decades-long availability of effective treatments for NMIBC such as intravesical Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG). The present review provides an overview of NMIBC, including its burden and treatment options, and then reviews aspects that counteract the successful treatment of NMIBC, referred to as unmet treatment needs. The scale and reasons for each unmet need are described based on a comprehensive review of the literature, including insufficient adherence to treatment guidelines by physicians because of insufficient knowledge, training, or access to certain therapy options. Low rates of lifestyle changes and treatment completion by patients, due to BCG shortages or toxicities and adverse events as well as their impact on social activities, represent additional areas of potential improvement. Highly heterogeneous evidence for the effectiveness and safety of some treatments limits the comparability of results across studies. As a result, efforts are underway to standardize treatment schedules for BCG, but intravesical chemotherapy schedules remain unstandardized. In addition, risk-scoring models often perform unsatisfactorily due to significant differences between derivation and real-world cohorts. Reporting in clinical trials suffers from a lack of consistent outcomes reporting in bladder cancer clinical trials, paired with an under-representation of racial and ethnic minorities in many trials.

Considering the Effects of Modern Point-of-Care Urine Biomarker Assays in Follow-Up of Patients with High-Risk Non-muscle-Invasive Bladder Cancer

BACKGROUND

Although a plethora of urine markers for diagnosis and follow-up of patients with bladder cancer (BC) has been developed and studied, the clinical impact of urine testing on patient management remains unclear. The goal of this manuscript is to identify scenarios for a potential use of modern point-of-care (POC) urine marker assays in the follow-up of patients with high-risk non-muscle-invasive BC (NMIBC) and estimate potential risks and benefits.

METHODS

To permit comparison between different assays, the results of 5 different POC assays studied in a recent prospective multicenter study including 127 patients with suspicious cystoscopy undergoing TURB were used for this simulation. For the current standard of care (SOC), a "marker-enforced" procedure, and a combined strategy sensitivity (Se), estimated number of cystoscopies, and the numbers needed to diagnose (NND) over a 1-year follow-up period were calculated.

RESULTS

For regular cystoscopy (SOC), a Se of 91.7% and a NND of 42.2 repetitive office cystoscopies (WLCs) for 1 recurrent tumor at 1 year were calculated. For the "marker-enforced" strategy, marker sensitivities between 94.7% and 97.1% were observed. The "combined" strategy yielded for markers with a Se exceeding 50% an overall Se at 1 year similar or superior to the current SOC. Savings regarding the number of cystoscopies in the "marker-enforced" strategy vs. the SOC were small, while, depending on the marker, up to 45% of all cystoscopies may be saved using the "combined" strategy.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on the results of this simulation, a marker-supported follow-up of patients with high-risk (HR) NMIBC is safe and offers options to significantly reduce the number of cystoscopies without compromising the Se. Further research focusing on prospective randomized trials is needed to finally find a way to include marker results into clinical decision-making.

Predicting Recurrence and Progression in Patients with Non-Muscle-Invasive Bladder Cancer: Systematic Review on the Performance of Risk Stratification Models

BACKGROUND

Several classifications have been reported to stratify non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC) in risk groups according to the probability of recurrence and progression.

OBJECTIVE

To systematically review the current evidence regarding risk stratification of NMIBC.

METHODS

The systematic review was performed in accordance with the PRISMA statement. Studies providing data on development and/or external validation cohorts of models and risk stratification tables for recurrence and/or progression for patients with NMIBC, reporting at least one discrimination measure (AUC or C-Index) were included.

RESULTS

Twenty-five studies involving 22,737 patients were included. Six classifications were identified, three of them were predictive models (EORTC, CUETO, EAU 2021) and three were based on expert opinion (EAU 2020, AUA, NCCN). A high risk of bias was present in the majority of the studies. Certain heterogenicity was found among the studies regarding adjuvant therapy, postoperative instillation or second resection. The definition of oncological outcomes was not standardized in the included studies. CUETO and EORTC scoring systems are the most validated. In general, validations showed a poor discrimination capability to predict recurrence, slightly better for progression. The EAU 2021 model overestimates the risk of progression in patients treated with BCG. Carcinoma in situ is underrepresented in all the studies analyzed.

CONCLUSIONS

The existing classifications show poor discrimination capability for recurrence and possibly helpful discrimination capability for progression in NMIBC patients. These results highlight the unmet need to develop novel accurate risk models for patients with NMIBC, which could be improved with the combination of clinicopathological and molecular information.

Predictive biomarkers of response to bacillus Calmette‐Guérin immunotherapy and bacillus Calmette‐Guérin failure for non‐muscle invasive bladder cancer

Within the heterogeneous population of patients with bacillus Calmette‐Guérin failure, there are clear differences in prognosis and therapy with regard to the timeline when bacillus Calmette‐Guérin failure occurred. There are a variety of classifications which include bacillus Calmette‐Guérin refractory disease, relapsing, unresponsive, and intolerant. Further profiling of these patients may help to shed light on other forms of therapy that are less radical. We hereby summarize the different biomarkers that predicts for response to bacillus Calmette‐Guérin immunotherapy and bacillus Calmette‐Guérin failure for non‐muscle invasive bladder cancer.

Salvage Therapies for Non-muscle-invasive Bladder Cancer: Who Will Respond to Bacillus Calmette-Guérin? Predictors and Nomograms

The best predictors of response to intravesical immunotherapy are tumor grade and stage, tumor recurrence pattern, nomograms, panels of urinary cytokines, and fluorescent in situ hybridization patterns of urine cytology examinations. Future investigations on predictors of Bacillus Calmette-Guérin efficacy are needed to better select those patients who will really benefit from a conservative treatment. Hardly any of the proposed nomograms were designed to precisely predict the outcome of Bacillus Calmette-Guérin immunotherapy. A new nomogram for NMIBC recurrence and progression based on all non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer subgroups would include factors already proven in cancer prognosis and prediction.