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Ba MB, Giudici F, Bellini C, Auzac G, Louvel G, Bockel S, Moukasse Y, Chaffai I, Berthelot K, Vatonne A, Conversano A, Viansone A, Larue C, Deutsch E, Michiels S, Milewski C, Rivera S. Feasibility and Safety of the "One-Week Breast Radiation Therapy" Program. Clin Oncol (R Coll Radiol) 2024; 36:e333-e341. [PMID: 38971686 DOI: 10.1016/j.clon.2024.06.045] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/28/2023] [Revised: 02/21/2024] [Accepted: 06/13/2024] [Indexed: 07/08/2024]
Abstract
AIMS FAST-Forward and UK-FAST-trials have demonstrated the safety and efficacy of five-fraction breast adjuvant radiation therapy (RT) and have become the standard of care for selected early breast cancer patients. In response to the additional burden caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, we implemented "One-Week Breast RT," an innovative program delivering five-fraction whole breast RT in a complete 5-day workflow. The primary objective of this study was to demonstrate the feasibility and safety of our program. The secondary objective was to evaluate cosmetic results. MATERIAL AND METHODS A total of 120 patients treated from February 2021 to March 2022, received whole breast RT without lymph node irradiation nor boost, with 26 Gy in five fractions over one week. Inverse planning with restricted optimization parameters offers systematic deep inspiration breath-hold aimed to provide treatment plans compliant with FAST-Forward recommendations. Toxicity and cosmetic evaluations were prospectively registered prior (pre-RT), at the end (end-RT), and 6 months after RT (6 months) based on Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events v. 4.03 and Harvard scale. RESULTS With a median age of 70 years (interquartile range (IQR): 66-74) and a median follow-up of 6 months (IQR: 6.01-6.25), most patients (93.3%) completed their RT in one week from baseline to the end of the treatment consultation. The most common acute toxicities (at end-RT) were skin-related: radio-dermatitis (72%), induration (35%), hyperpigmentation (8%), and breast edema (16%). The rate of radio-dermatitis decreased from end-RT to 6 months (71.7% vs 5.4%, P< 0.001). No patient experienced grade ≥3 toxicity. At 6 months, cosmetic results were generally good or excellent (94.1%). CONCLUSION This study confirms the feasibility and acute safety of the "One-Week Breast RT" in real life. Favorable toxicity profiles and good cosmetic outcomes are in line with FAST-Forward results. A prospective national cohort, aimed at decreasing treatment burden, maintaining safety, efficacy, and improving RT workflow efficiency with longer follow-up is ongoing.
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Affiliation(s)
- M B Ba
- Gustave Roussy, Radiation Therapy Department, F-94805, Villejuif, France
| | - F Giudici
- Bureau de Biostatistique et d'Epidémiologie, Gustave Roussy, Oncostat U1018, Inserm, Paris-Saclay University, F-94805, Villejuif, France
| | - C Bellini
- Gustave Roussy, Radiation Therapy Department, F-94805, Villejuif, France
| | - G Auzac
- Gustave Roussy, Radiation Therapy Department, F-94805, Villejuif, France
| | - G Louvel
- Gustave Roussy, Radiation Therapy Department, F-94805, Villejuif, France
| | - S Bockel
- Gustave Roussy, Radiation Therapy Department, F-94805, Villejuif, France
| | - Y Moukasse
- Gustave Roussy, Radiation Therapy Department, F-94805, Villejuif, France
| | - I Chaffai
- Gustave Roussy, Radiation Therapy Department, F-94805, Villejuif, France
| | - K Berthelot
- Gustave Roussy, Radiation Therapy Department, F-94805, Villejuif, France
| | - A Vatonne
- Gustave Roussy, Radiation Therapy Department, F-94805, Villejuif, France
| | - A Conversano
- Gustave Roussy, Surgery Department, F-94805, Villejuif, France
| | - A Viansone
- Gustave Roussy, Medical Oncology Department, F-94805, Villejuif, France
| | - C Larue
- Bureau de Biostatistique et d'Epidémiologie, Gustave Roussy, Oncostat U1018, Inserm, Paris-Saclay University, F-94805, Villejuif, France
| | - E Deutsch
- Gustave Roussy, Radiation Therapy Department, F-94805, Villejuif, France; Université Paris-Saclay, Gustave Roussy, Inserm 1030, 94805, Villejuif, France
| | - S Michiels
- Bureau de Biostatistique et d'Epidémiologie, Gustave Roussy, Oncostat U1018, Inserm, Paris-Saclay University, F-94805, Villejuif, France
| | - C Milewski
- Gustave Roussy, Radiation Therapy Department, F-94805, Villejuif, France
| | - S Rivera
- Gustave Roussy, Radiation Therapy Department, F-94805, Villejuif, France; Université Paris-Saclay, Gustave Roussy, Inserm 1030, 94805, Villejuif, France.
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Shah R, Loo CE, Hanna NM, Hughes S, Mafra A, Fink H, McFerran E, Garcia M, Acharya S, Langselius O, Frick C, Niyigaba J, Lasebikan N, Steinberg J, Sullivan R, Bray F, Ilbawi AM, Ginsburg O, Chiam K, Cylus J, Caruana M, David M, Hui H, Canfell K, Soerjomataram I. Global review of COVID-19 mitigation strategies and their impact on cancer service disruptions. J Cancer Policy 2024; 41:100486. [PMID: 38830535 DOI: 10.1016/j.jcpo.2024.100486] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/16/2023] [Revised: 04/15/2024] [Accepted: 05/24/2024] [Indexed: 06/05/2024]
Abstract
During the COVID-19 pandemic, countries adopted mitigation strategies to reduce disruptions to cancer services. We reviewed their implementation across health system functions and their impact on cancer diagnosis and care during the pandemic. A systematic search was performed using terms related to cancer and COVID-19. Included studies reported on individuals with cancer or cancer care services, focusing on strategies/programs aimed to reduce delays and disruptions. Extracted data were grouped into four functions (governance, financing, service delivery, and resource generation) and sub-functions of the health system performance assessment framework. We included 30 studies from 16 countries involving 192,233 patients with cancer. Multiple mitigation approaches were implemented, predominantly affecting sub-functions of service delivery to control COVID-19 infection via the suspension of non-urgent cancer care, modified treatment guidelines, and increased telemedicine use in routine cancer care delivery. Resource generation was mainly ensured through adequate workforce supply. However, less emphasis on monitoring or assessing the effectiveness and financing of these strategies was observed. Seventeen studies suggested improved service uptake after mitigation implementation, yet the resulting impact on cancer diagnosis and care has not been established. This review emphasizes the importance of developing effective mitigation strategies across all health system (sub)functions to minimize cancer care service disruptions during crises. Deficiencies were observed in health service delivery (to ensure equity), governance (to monitor and evaluate the implementation of mitigation strategies), and financing. In the wake of future emergencies, implementation research studies that include pre-prepared protocols will be essential to assess mitigation impact across cancer care services.
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Affiliation(s)
- Richa Shah
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France.
| | - Ching Ee Loo
- Centre for Clinical Epidemiology, Institute for Clinical Research, National Institutes of Health, Ministry of Health Malaysia, Selangor, Malaysia
| | | | - Suzanne Hughes
- The Daffodil Centre, The University of Sydney, a joint venture with Cancer Council NSW, Sydney, Australia
| | - Allini Mafra
- Cancer Epidemiology and Prevention Team, Public Health Expertise, Department of Precision Health, Luxembourg Institute of Health, Strassen, Luxembourg
| | - Hanna Fink
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | | | - Montse Garcia
- Cancer Screening Unit, Institut Català d'Oncologia (ICO), Early Detection of Cancer Group, Institut d'Investigació Biomèdica de Bellvitge (IDIBELL), L'Hospitalet de Llobregat, Spain
| | | | - Oliver Langselius
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Clara Frick
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Jean Niyigaba
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | | | - Julia Steinberg
- The Daffodil Centre, The University of Sydney, a joint venture with Cancer Council NSW, Sydney, Australia
| | - Richard Sullivan
- King's College London, Institute of Cancer Policy, Guy's Hospital, London, UK
| | - Freddie Bray
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - André Michel Ilbawi
- Department of Non-communicable Diseases, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
| | | | - Karen Chiam
- The Daffodil Centre, The University of Sydney, a joint venture with Cancer Council NSW, Sydney, Australia
| | - Jonathan Cylus
- WHO Barcelona Office for Health Systems Financing, World Health Organization Regional Office for Europe, Barcelona, Spain; London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine Faculty of Public Health, London, UK
| | - Michael Caruana
- The Daffodil Centre, The University of Sydney, a joint venture with Cancer Council NSW, Sydney, Australia
| | - Michael David
- The Daffodil Centre, The University of Sydney, a joint venture with Cancer Council NSW, Sydney, Australia; School of Medicine & Dentistry, Griffith University, Gold Coast, Australia
| | - Harriet Hui
- The Daffodil Centre, The University of Sydney, a joint venture with Cancer Council NSW, Sydney, Australia
| | - Karen Canfell
- The Daffodil Centre, The University of Sydney, a joint venture with Cancer Council NSW, Sydney, Australia
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Verma S, Young S, Boldt G, Blanchette P, Lock M, Helou J, Raphael J. Immunotherapy and Radiation Therapy Sequencing in Breast Cancer: A Systematic Review. Int J Radiat Oncol Biol Phys 2024; 118:1422-1434. [PMID: 38195030 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijrobp.2024.01.001] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/03/2023] [Accepted: 01/01/2024] [Indexed: 01/11/2024]
Abstract
PURPOSE In the past decade, immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) have emerged as a treatment option for metastatic breast cancer (BC). More recently, ICIs have been approved in the perioperative setting. This has led to clinical scenarios where radiation therapy (RT) is given concurrently with ICIs. On the other hand, moderate and ultrahypofractionated schedules of RT are being widely adopted in the adjuvant setting, in addition to an increased use of metastasis-directed therapy. Furthermore, RT can modulate the tumor microenvironment and induce a systemic response at nonirradiated sites, an "abscopal effect." The amplification of antitumor immune response is used as the rationale behind the concomitant use of ICIs and RT. To date, there is a lack of literature on the optimal sequence, timing, dose/fractionation schema, and treated RT volumes with ICIs in patients with BC, especially in the era of ultrahypofractionation. METHODS AND MATERIALS We conducted a systematic review to delineate the reported treatment details, safety, and efficacy of combining ICI and RT in patients with BC. PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane CENTRAL were searched between 2014 and 2023. Data were extracted to assess the details of ICIs/RT delivery, safety, and efficacy. RESULTS Of the 12 eligible studies, 9 involved patients with metastatic BC. Most studies were phase 1/2, had a small sample size (range, 8-28), and were heterogenous in patient population and reported outcomes. The combination was reported to be safe. We identified 1 study in the perioperative setting, which did a posthoc analysis of safety/efficacy of ICIs in the adjuvant setting with receipt and pattern of RT. CONCLUSIONS In conclusion, there are limited data on the dose, timing, fractionation, and volumes of RT in both the adjuvant and metastatic setting in BC. Ongoing/future trials should collect and report such data on RT details, whenever RT is used in combination with ICIs.
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Affiliation(s)
- Saurav Verma
- Division of Medical Oncology, Department of Oncology, Schulich School of Medicine & Dentistry, Western University, London, Ontario, Canada; London Regional Cancer Program at London Health Sciences Centre, London, Ontario, Canada
| | - Sympascho Young
- London Regional Cancer Program at London Health Sciences Centre, London, Ontario, Canada; Division of Radiation Oncology, Department of Oncology, Schulich School of Medicine & Dentistry, Western University, London, Ontario, Canada
| | - Gabriel Boldt
- London Regional Cancer Program at London Health Sciences Centre, London, Ontario, Canada
| | - Phillip Blanchette
- Division of Medical Oncology, Department of Oncology, Schulich School of Medicine & Dentistry, Western University, London, Ontario, Canada; London Regional Cancer Program at London Health Sciences Centre, London, Ontario, Canada
| | - Michael Lock
- London Regional Cancer Program at London Health Sciences Centre, London, Ontario, Canada; Division of Radiation Oncology, Department of Oncology, Schulich School of Medicine & Dentistry, Western University, London, Ontario, Canada
| | - Joelle Helou
- London Regional Cancer Program at London Health Sciences Centre, London, Ontario, Canada; Division of Radiation Oncology, Department of Oncology, Schulich School of Medicine & Dentistry, Western University, London, Ontario, Canada
| | - Jacques Raphael
- Division of Medical Oncology, Department of Oncology, Schulich School of Medicine & Dentistry, Western University, London, Ontario, Canada; London Regional Cancer Program at London Health Sciences Centre, London, Ontario, Canada.
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Chan K, Timotin E, Chung P, Han K, Milosevic M, Schnarr K, Sur R, Bosche J, Harnett N. A two-center experience: The impact of COVID-19 on two brachytherapy programs in Ontario - virtual care, service suspension and radiation therapy workflow. J Med Imaging Radiat Sci 2023; 54:436-445. [PMID: 37357051 PMCID: PMC10289124 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmir.2023.05.043] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/01/2022] [Revised: 05/09/2023] [Accepted: 05/23/2023] [Indexed: 06/27/2023]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Most brachytherapy (BT) procedures require general anesthesia and are therefore considered aerosol generating medical procedures (AGMPs). The COVID-19 pandemic impacted BT as services were prioritized by balancing the harm associated with COVID-19 infection versus the effect of delay of potentially curative treatment. This article summarizes the impact of the pandemic on BT programs in two cancer centers in a Canadian province. METHODS As part of a quality assurance project, a retrospective study was conducted for the first five months of the pandemic (March 1 to July 31, 2020). Chart review and COVID-19 related mitigation strategies were identified by BT Clinical Specialist Radiation Therapists (bCSRT) in each center using electronic medical records, departmental reports, policies and procedures. RESULTS Impact included start of virtual care (VC), shortened fractionation, suspension of services and workflow changes. Both centers implemented VC strategies to reduce clinic visits: "same-day size and treat" strategy for post-operative endometrial cancer patients and virtual patient education for all patients. BT services that were suspended were low-dose-rate and high-dose-rate (HDR) prostate treatments (Center 1), lung and esophagus HDR treatments (Center 2). Workflow changes that affected staff and patients in both centers included COVID-19 screening and the use of personal protective equipment. The centers were marginally different in workflow adjustments for AGMP procedures. Those considered high-risk AGMP and low-risk cancer were suspended temporarily with alternate treatment strategies sought for some patients. Others had temporizing treatment such as androgen deprivation therapy to facilitate oncological safe deferral of procedures. CONCLUSION Both BT programs delivered treatment to most patients with minimal delays and cancellations, where feasible. Some of the pandemic workflow changes continued to the current state of the pandemic. Long-term follow-up is needed to assess the impact of COVID-19 and treatment interruptions on oncologic outcomes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kitty Chan
- Princess Margaret Cancer Centre, University Health Network, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada.
| | | | - Peter Chung
- Princess Margaret Cancer Centre, University Health Network, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada
| | - Kathy Han
- Princess Margaret Cancer Centre, University Health Network, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada
| | - Michael Milosevic
- Princess Margaret Cancer Centre, University Health Network, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada
| | - Kara Schnarr
- Juravinski Cancer Centre, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada; Department of Oncology, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada
| | - Ranjan Sur
- Juravinski Cancer Centre, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada; Department of Oncology, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada
| | - Joanne Bosche
- Department of Anesthesia, University Health Network, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Nicole Harnett
- Princess Margaret Cancer Centre, University Health Network, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada
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Myers C, Bennett K, Cahir C. Breast cancer care amidst a pandemic: a scoping review to understand the impact of coronavirus disease 2019 on health services and health outcomes. Int J Qual Health Care 2023; 35:mzad048. [PMID: 37497806 PMCID: PMC10373113 DOI: 10.1093/intqhc/mzad048] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/28/2022] [Revised: 05/19/2023] [Accepted: 06/28/2023] [Indexed: 07/28/2023] Open
Abstract
Since the onset of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, health services for breast cancer (BC) have been disrupted. Our scoping review examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on BC services, health outcomes, and well-being for women. Additionally, this review identifies social inequalities specific to BC during the pandemic. Using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for scoping reviews guidelines, the literature search was conducted using scientific databases starting from March 2020 through November 2021. Studies were identified and selected by two researchers based on inclusion criteria, and the relevant data were extracted and charted to summarize the findings. Ninety-three articles were included in this review. Main themes included are as follows: (i) the impact of COVID-19 on BC services; (ii) the impact of COVID-19 on health outcomes and well-being in women with BC; and (iii) any variation in the impact of COVID-19 on BC by social determinants of health. There were apparent disruptions to BC services across the cancer continuum, especially screening services. Clinical repercussions were a result of such disruptions, and women with BC experienced worsened quality of life and psychosocial well-being. Finally, there were social inequalities dependent on social determinants of health such as age, race, insurance status, and region. Due to the disruption of BC services during the COVID-19 pandemic, women were impacted on their health and overall well-being. The variation in impact demonstrates how health inequities have been exacerbated during the pandemic. This comprehensive review will inform timely health-care changes to minimize long-term impacts of the pandemic and improve evidence-based multidisciplinary needs.
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Affiliation(s)
- Charlotte Myers
- School of Population Health, RCSI University of Medicine and Health Science, Dublin D02 DH60, Ireland
| | - Kathleen Bennett
- Data Science Centre, School of Population Health, RCSI University of Medicine and Health Science, Dublin D02 DH60, Ireland
| | - Caitriona Cahir
- Data Science Centre, School of Population Health, RCSI University of Medicine and Health Science, Dublin D02 DH60, Ireland
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Oladeru OT, Dunn SA, Li J, Coles CE, Yamauchi C, Chang JS, Cheng SHC, Kaidar-Person O, Meattini I, Ramiah D, Kirby A, Hijal T, Marta GN, Poortmans P, Isern-Verdum J, Zissiadis Y, Offersen BV, Refaat T, Elsayad K, Hijazi H, Dengina N, Belkacemi Y, Luo FD, Lu S, Griffin C, Collins M, Ryan P, Larios D, Warren LE, Punglia RS, Wong JS, Spiegel DY, Jagsi R, Taghian A, Bellon JR, Ho AY. Looking Back: International Practice Patterns in Breast Radiation Oncology From a Case-Based Survey Across 54 Countries During the First Surge of the COVID-19 Pandemic. JCO Glob Oncol 2023; 9:e2300010. [PMID: 37471670 PMCID: PMC10581620 DOI: 10.1200/go.23.00010] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/12/2023] [Accepted: 05/16/2023] [Indexed: 07/22/2023] Open
Abstract
PURPOSE The COVID-19 pandemic has profoundly affected cancer care worldwide, including radiation therapy (RT) for breast cancer (BC), because of risk-based resource allocation. We report the evolution of international breast RT practices during the beginning of the pandemic, focusing on differences in treatment recommendations between countries. MATERIALS AND METHODS Between July and November 2020, a 58-question survey was distributed to radiation oncologists (ROs) through international professional societies. Changes in RT decision making during the first surge of the pandemic were evaluated across six hypothetical scenarios, including the management of ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS), early-stage, locally advanced, and metastatic BC. The significance of changes in responses before and during the pandemic was examined using chi-square and McNemar-Bowker tests. RESULTS One thousand one hundred three ROs from 54 countries completed the survey. Incomplete responses (254) were excluded from the analysis. Most respondents were from the United States (285), Japan (117), Italy (63), Canada (58), and Brazil (56). Twenty-one percent (230) of respondents reported treating at least one patient with BC who was COVID-19-positive. Approximately 60% of respondents reported no change in treatment recommendation during the pandemic, except for patients with metastatic disease, for which 57.7% (636/1,103; P < .0005) changed their palliative practice. Among respondents who noted a change in their recommendation during the first surge of the pandemic, omitting, delaying, and adopting short-course RT were the most frequent changes, with most transitioning to moderate hypofractionation for DCIS and early-stage BC. CONCLUSION Early in the COVID-19 pandemic, significant changes in global RT practice patterns for BC were introduced. The impact of published results from the FAST FORWARD trial supporting ultrahypofractionation likely confounded the interpretation of the pandemic's independent influence on RT delivery.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Samantha A. Dunn
- Department of Radiation Oncology, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA
| | - Jian Li
- Department of Radiation Oncology, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA
| | - Charlotte E. Coles
- Department of Oncology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom
| | - Chikako Yamauchi
- Department of Radiation Oncology, Shiga General Hospital, Shiga, Japan
- The Corona Countermeasures Executing Group of the Japanese Society for Radiation Oncology, Japan
| | - Jee Suk Chang
- Department of Radiation Oncology, Yonsei Cancer Center, Seoul, South Korea
| | - Skye Hung-Chun Cheng
- Department of Radiation Oncology, Koo Foundation Sun Yat-Sen Cancer Center, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Orit Kaidar-Person
- Department of Radiation Oncology, Sheba Tel Hashomer, Ramat Gan, Israel
- Sackler School of Medicine, Tel-Aviv University, Tel-Aviv, Israel
- GROW-School for Oncology and Developmental Biology or GROW (Maastro), Maastricht University, Maastricht, The Netherlands
| | - Icro Meattini
- Department of Experimental and Clinical Biomedical Sciences “M. Serio,” University of Florence, Florence, Italy
- Radiation Oncology Unit, Oncology Department, Azienda Ospedaliero-Universitaria Careggi, Florence, Italy
| | - Duvern Ramiah
- Division of Radiation Oncology, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Anna Kirby
- Department of Radiotherapy, Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust and Institute of Cancer Research, Sutton, United Kingdom
| | - Tarek Hijal
- Division of Radiation Oncology, McGill University Health Centre, Montreal, QC, Canada
| | | | - Philip Poortmans
- Iridium Netwerk and University of Antwerp, Wilrijk Antwerp, Belgium
| | - Josep Isern-Verdum
- Department of Radiation Oncology, Hospital de la Santa Creu i Sant Pau, Barcelona, Spain
| | | | - Birgitte Vrou Offersen
- Department of Experimental Clinical Oncology, Aarhus University Hospital, Aarhus, Denmark
| | - Tamer Refaat
- Department of Radiation Oncology, Stritch School of Medicine, Cardinal Bernardin Cancer Center, Loyola University Chicago, Maywood, IL
| | - Khaled Elsayad
- Department of Radiation Oncology, University Hospital Muenster, Muenster, Germany
| | - Hussam Hijazi
- Department of Radiation Oncology, King Abdulaziz University Hospital, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia
| | - Natalia Dengina
- Department of Radiotherapy, Ulyanovsk Regional Cancer Center, Ulyanovsk Oblast, Russia
| | - Yazid Belkacemi
- Department of Radiation Oncology and Henri Mondor Breast Center, INSERM 955 i-Biot Unit, University of Paris-Est (UPEC), Creteil, France
| | - Feng Deng Luo
- Department of Radiation Oncology and Henri Mondor Breast Center, INSERM 955 i-Biot Unit, University of Paris-Est (UPEC), Creteil, France
| | - Shun Lu
- Department of Radiation Oncology Center, Sichuan Cancer Center, Chengdu, China
| | - Colleen Griffin
- Department of Radiation Oncology, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA
| | - Maya Collins
- Department of Radiation Oncology, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA
| | - Phoebe Ryan
- Department of Radiation Oncology, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA
| | - Dalia Larios
- Department of Radiation Oncology, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA
| | - Laura E. Warren
- Department of Radiation Oncology, Brigham & Women's Hospital/Dana Farber Cancer Institute, Boston, MA
| | - Rinaa S. Punglia
- Department of Radiation Oncology, Brigham & Women's Hospital/Dana Farber Cancer Institute, Boston, MA
| | - Julia S. Wong
- Department of Radiation Oncology, Brigham & Women's Hospital/Dana Farber Cancer Institute, Boston, MA
| | - Daphna Y. Spiegel
- Department of Radiation Oncology, Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, Boston, MA
| | - Reshma Jagsi
- Department of Radiation Oncology, Emory University School of Medicine, Atlanta, GA
| | - Alphonse Taghian
- Department of Radiation Oncology, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA
| | - Jennifer R. Bellon
- Department of Radiation Oncology, Brigham & Women's Hospital/Dana Farber Cancer Institute, Boston, MA
| | - Alice Y. Ho
- Department of Radiation Oncology, Duke University School of Medicine, Durham, NC
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7
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Mushonga M, Weiss J, Liu ZA, Nyakabau AM, Mohamad O, Tawk B, Moraes FY, Grover S, Yap ML, Zubizarreta E, Lievens Y, Rodin D. Hypofractionation in Breast Cancer Radiotherapy Across World Bank Income Groups: Results of an International Survey. JCO Glob Oncol 2023; 9:e2200127. [PMID: 36706350 PMCID: PMC10166450 DOI: 10.1200/go.22.00127] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/28/2023] Open
Abstract
PURPOSE Hypofractionated breast radiotherapy has been found to be equivalent to conventional fractionation in many clinical trials. Using data from the European Society for Radiotherapy and Oncology Global Impact of Radiotherapy in Oncology survey, we identified preferences for hypofractionation in breast cancer across World Bank income groups and the perceived facilitators and barriers to its use. MATERIALS AND METHODS An international, electronic survey was administered to radiation oncologists from 2018 to 2019. Demographics, practice characteristics, preferred hypofractionation regimen for specific breast cancer scenarios, and facilitators and barriers to hypofractionation were reported and stratified by World Bank income groups. Variables associated with hypofractionation were assessed using multivariate logistic regression models. RESULTS One thousand four hundred thirty-four physicians responded: 890 (62%) from high-income countries (HICs), 361 (25%) from upper-middle-income countries (UMICs), 183 (13%) from low- and lower-middle-income countries (LLMICs). Hypofractionation was preferred most frequently in node-negative disease after breast-conserving surgery, with the strongest preference reported in HICs (78% from HICs, 54% from UMICs, and 51% from LLMICs, P < .001). Hypofractionation for node-positive disease postmastectomy was more frequently preferred in LLMICs (28% from HICs, 15% from UMICs, and 35% from LLMICs, P < .001). Curative doses of 2.1 to < 2.5 Gy in 15-16 fractions were most frequently reported, with limited preference for ultra-hypofractionation, but significant variability in palliative dosing. In adjusted analyses, UMICs were significantly less likely than LLMICs to prefer hypofractionation across all curative clinical scenarios, whereas respondents with > 1 million population catchments and with intensity-modulated radiotherapy were more likely to prefer hypofractionation. The most frequently cited facilitators and barriers were published evidence and fear of late toxicity, respectively. CONCLUSION Preference for hypofractionation varied for curative indications, with greater acceptance in earlier-stage disease in HICs and in later-stage disease in LLMICs. Targeted educational interventions and greater inclusivity in radiation oncology clinical trials may support greater uptake.
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Affiliation(s)
- Melinda Mushonga
- Sally Mugabe Central Hospital, Harare, Zimbabwe.,Radiation Medicine Program, Princess Margaret Cancer Centre, Toronto, Canada.,Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Jessica Weiss
- Department of Biostatistics, Princess Margaret Cancer Centre, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Zhihui Amy Liu
- Department of Biostatistics, Princess Margaret Cancer Centre, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.,Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Anna-Mary Nyakabau
- Department of Oncology, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
| | - Osama Mohamad
- Department of Radiation Oncology, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA
| | - Bouchra Tawk
- German Cancer Research Consortium, Core Site Heidelberg, German Cancer Research Center, Heidelberg, Germany.,Division of Molecular and Translational Radiation Oncology, Department of Radiation Oncology, Heidelberg Faculty of Medicine and Heidelberg University Hospital, Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Fabio Y Moraes
- Department of Oncology, Division of Radiation Oncology, Queen's University, Kingston, Ontario, Canada
| | - Surbhi Grover
- Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, United States; Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA
| | - Mei Ling Yap
- Collaboration for Cancer Outcomes, Research and Evaluation (CCORE), Ingham Institute, UNSW Sydney, Liverpool, Australia.,Liverpool and Macarthur Cancer Therapy Centres, Western Sydney University, Campbelltown, Australia.,School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Campbelltown, Australia
| | | | - Yolande Lievens
- Ghent University Hospital and Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium
| | - Danielle Rodin
- Radiation Medicine Program, Princess Margaret Cancer Centre, Toronto, Canada.,Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
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8
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Teng H, Dang W, Curpen B. Impact of COVID-19 and Socioeconomic Factors on Delays in High-Risk MRI Breast Cancer Screening. Tomography 2022; 8:2171-2181. [PMID: 36136878 PMCID: PMC9498669 DOI: 10.3390/tomography8050182] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/22/2022] [Revised: 08/23/2022] [Accepted: 08/25/2022] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to investigate if there was a delay in high-risk MRI breast cancer screening in our local region, if this delay is ongoing despite COVID-19 vaccinations, and if demographic and socioeconomic factors are associated with these delays. Six-hundred and sixty-five high-risk breast patients from 23 January 2018–30 September 2021 were included. Delays were determined by comparing the time in between each patients’ MRI screening exams prior to the COVID-19 pandemic to the time in between MRI screening exams during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic as well as the time in between exams when our patients started receiving vaccinations. Delays were analyzed via logistical regression with demographic and socioeconomic factors to determine if there was an association between these factors and delays. Significant time delays in between MRI screening exams were found between the pre-COVID timeframe compared to during the height of COVID. Significant time delays also persisted during the timeframe after patients started getting vaccinations. There were no associations with delays and socioeconomic or demographic factors. Significant time delays were found in between MRI high-risk breast cancer screening examinations due to the COVID-19 pandemic. These delays were not exacerbated by demographic or socioeconomic factors.
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Affiliation(s)
- Helena Teng
- Faculty of Health Sciences, McMaster University, 1200 Main Street West, Hamilton, ON L8N 3Z5, Canada
- Correspondence:
| | - Wilfred Dang
- Department of Medical Imaging, Sunnybrook Health Sciences, 2075 Bayview Ave, Toronto, ON M4N 3M5, Canada
| | - Belinda Curpen
- Department of Medical Imaging, Sunnybrook Health Sciences, 2075 Bayview Ave, Toronto, ON M4N 3M5, Canada
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9
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Koch CA, Corey G, Liu ZA, Han K, Fyles A. Partial Breast Irradiation and Surgical Clip Usage for Tumor Bed Delineation After Breast-Conserving Surgery in Canada: A Radiation Oncology Perspective. Adv Radiat Oncol 2021; 6:100701. [PMID: 34409206 PMCID: PMC8360935 DOI: 10.1016/j.adro.2021.100701] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/12/2020] [Revised: 03/23/2021] [Accepted: 03/30/2021] [Indexed: 11/27/2022] Open
Abstract
PURPOSE Our purpose was to evaluate the usage and perceived benefit of surgical clips for breast radiation therapy planning in Canada, focusing on partial breast irradiation (PBI) after breast-conserving surgery. METHODS AND MATERIALS A retrospective institutional review identified patients eligible for PBI based on clinicopathologic criteria, and tumor bed visualization was determined from computed tomography-planning scans. An online survey was subsequently distributed to Canadian radiation oncologists addressing the usage and added value of surgical clips for breast radiation therapy planning purposes. The survey also evaluated PBI usage and regimens. Responses were collected over a 4-week period. PBI regimen usage at our institution was also reviewed from May 1 to December 18, 2020. RESULTS Based on clinicopathologic criteria, 306 patients were identified between 2013 and 2018 who were eligible for PBI. However, only 24% (72/306) of cases were noted to have surgical clips, of which over 50% did not assist in tumor bed localization due to inconsistent clip positioning. Similarly, nearly two-thirds (28/43) of survey respondents indicated that surgical clips are placed in the tumor bed in less than 50% of cases. Almost all respondents (42/43) indicated that surgical clips facilitate breast radiation therapy planning and favor the development of guidelines to increase the consistent placement of surgical clips in the tumor bed after breast-conserving surgery. Approximately two-thirds of respondents (28/43) offer PBI to eligible patients as routine treatment, with moderate hypofractionated regimens most commonly recommended. However, the 1-week daily regimen of 26 Gy in 5 fractions is now offered to the majority (77%) of patients at our institution. CONCLUSIONS There was strong agreement among Canadian radiation oncologists that surgical clip placement facilitates breast radiation therapy planning, and most favor the development of surgical guidelines for the consistent placement of surgical clips in this setting. With the growing use of PBI, accurate localization of the tumor bed is extremely important.
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Affiliation(s)
- Christine Anne Koch
- Radiation Medicine Program, Princess Margaret Cancer Centre, University Health Network, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Gemma Corey
- Radiation Medicine Program, Princess Margaret Cancer Centre, University Health Network, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Zhihui Amy Liu
- Department of Biostatistics, Princess Margaret Cancer Centre, University Health Network, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Kathy Han
- Radiation Medicine Program, Princess Margaret Cancer Centre, University Health Network, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Anthony Fyles
- Radiation Medicine Program, Princess Margaret Cancer Centre, University Health Network, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
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10
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Riera R, Bagattini ÂM, Pacheco RL, Pachito DV, Roitberg F, Ilbawi A. Delays and Disruptions in Cancer Health Care Due to COVID-19 Pandemic: Systematic Review. JCO Glob Oncol 2021; 7:311-323. [PMID: 33617304 PMCID: PMC8081532 DOI: 10.1200/go.20.00639] [Citation(s) in RCA: 262] [Impact Index Per Article: 87.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/19/2023] Open
Abstract
PURPOSE There has been noteworthy concern about the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on health services including the management of cancer. In addition to being considered at higher risk for worse outcomes from COVID-19, people with cancer may also experience disruptions or delays in health services. This systematic review aimed to identify the delays and disruptions to cancer services globally. METHODS This is a systematic review with a comprehensive search including specific and general databases. We considered any observational longitudinal and cross-sectional study design. The selection, data extraction, and methodological assessment were performed by two independent reviewers. The methodological quality of the studies was assessed by specific tools. The delays and disruptions identified were categorized, and their frequency was presented. RESULTS Among the 62 studies identified, none exhibited high methodological quality. The most frequent determinants for disruptions were provider- or system-related, mainly because of the reduction in service availability. The studies identified 38 different categories of delays and disruptions with impact on treatment, diagnosis, or general health service. Delays or disruptions most investigated included reduction in routine activity of cancer services and number of cancer surgeries; delay in radiotherapy; and delay, reschedule, or cancellation of outpatient visits. Interruptions and disruptions largely affected facilities (up to 77.5%), supply chain (up to 79%), and personnel availability (up to 60%). CONCLUSION The remarkable frequency of delays and disruptions in health care mostly related to the reduction of the COVID-19 burden unintentionally posed a major risk on cancer care worldwide. Strategies can be proposed not only to mitigate the main delays and disruptions but also to standardize their measurement and reporting. As a high number of publications continuously are being published, it is critical to harmonize the upcoming reports and constantly update this review.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rachel Riera
- Centre of Health Technology Assessment, Hospital Sírio-Libanês, São Paulo, Brazil.,Discipline of Evidence-Based Medicine, Escola Paulista de Medicina (EPM), Universidade Federal de São Paulo (Unifesp), São Paulo, Brazil.,Oxford-Brazil EBM Alliance, Petrópolis, Brazil
| | | | - Rafael Leite Pacheco
- Centre of Health Technology Assessment, Hospital Sírio-Libanês, São Paulo, Brazil.,Discipline of Evidence-Based Medicine, Escola Paulista de Medicina (EPM), Universidade Federal de São Paulo (Unifesp), São Paulo, Brazil.,Oxford-Brazil EBM Alliance, Petrópolis, Brazil.,Centro Universitário São Camilo, São Paulo, Brazil
| | | | - Felipe Roitberg
- Instituto do Câncer do Estado de São Paulo/HCFMUSP, São Paulo, Brazil.,Department of Noncommunicable Diseases, World Health Organization (WHO), Geneva, Switzerland.,European Society for Medical Oncology (ESMO), Lugano, Switzerland
| | - Andre Ilbawi
- Department of Noncommunicable Diseases, World Health Organization (WHO), Geneva, Switzerland
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11
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Naipaul RD, Mercer RE, Chan KKW, Yeung L, Forbes L, Gavura S. Clinician Perspectives of COVID-19-Related Cancer Drug Funding Measures in Ontario. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2021; 28:1056-1066. [PMID: 33652898 PMCID: PMC8025744 DOI: 10.3390/curroncol28020103] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/18/2020] [Revised: 02/12/2021] [Accepted: 02/23/2021] [Indexed: 12/23/2022]
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic has a significant impact on cancer patients and the delivery of cancer care. To allow clinicians to adapt treatment plans for patients, Ontario Health (Cancer Care Ontario) issued a series of interim funding measures for the province’s New Drug Funding Program (NDFP), which covers the cost of most hospital-delivered cancer drugs. To assess the utility of the measures and the need for their continuation, we conducted an online survey of Ontario oncology clinicians. The survey was open 3–25 September 2020 and generated 105 responses. Between April and June 2020, 46% of respondents changed treatment plans for more than 25% of their cancer patients due to the pandemic. Clinicians report broad use of interim funding measures. The most frequently reported strategies used were treatment breaks for stable patients (62%), extending dosing intervals (59%), and deferring routine imaging (56%). Most clinicians anticipate continuing to use these interim funding measures in the coming months. The survey showed that adapting cancer drug funding policies has supported clinical care in Ontario during the pandemic.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rohini D. Naipaul
- Provincial Drug Reimbursement Programs, Ontario Health (Cancer Care Ontario), Toronto, ON M5G 2L3, Canada; (R.D.N.); (R.E.M.); (K.K.W.C.); (L.Y.); (L.F.)
| | - Rebecca E. Mercer
- Provincial Drug Reimbursement Programs, Ontario Health (Cancer Care Ontario), Toronto, ON M5G 2L3, Canada; (R.D.N.); (R.E.M.); (K.K.W.C.); (L.Y.); (L.F.)
- Canadian Centre for Applied Research in Cancer Control, Toronto, ON M5G 2L3, Canada
| | - Kelvin K. W. Chan
- Provincial Drug Reimbursement Programs, Ontario Health (Cancer Care Ontario), Toronto, ON M5G 2L3, Canada; (R.D.N.); (R.E.M.); (K.K.W.C.); (L.Y.); (L.F.)
- Canadian Centre for Applied Research in Cancer Control, Toronto, ON M5G 2L3, Canada
- Odette Cancer Centre, Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre, Toronto, ON M4N 3M5, Canada
| | - Lyndee Yeung
- Provincial Drug Reimbursement Programs, Ontario Health (Cancer Care Ontario), Toronto, ON M5G 2L3, Canada; (R.D.N.); (R.E.M.); (K.K.W.C.); (L.Y.); (L.F.)
| | - Leta Forbes
- Provincial Drug Reimbursement Programs, Ontario Health (Cancer Care Ontario), Toronto, ON M5G 2L3, Canada; (R.D.N.); (R.E.M.); (K.K.W.C.); (L.Y.); (L.F.)
| | - Scott Gavura
- Provincial Drug Reimbursement Programs, Ontario Health (Cancer Care Ontario), Toronto, ON M5G 2L3, Canada; (R.D.N.); (R.E.M.); (K.K.W.C.); (L.Y.); (L.F.)
- Correspondence: ; Tel.: +1-416-217-1299
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12
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Rodin D, Tawk B, Mohamad O, Grover S, Moraes FY, Yap ML, Zubizarreta E, Lievens Y. Hypofractionated radiotherapy in the real-world setting: An international ESTRO-GIRO survey. Radiother Oncol 2021; 157:32-39. [PMID: 33453312 DOI: 10.1016/j.radonc.2021.01.003] [Citation(s) in RCA: 48] [Impact Index Per Article: 16.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/27/2020] [Revised: 12/21/2020] [Accepted: 01/03/2021] [Indexed: 12/16/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE Multiple large trials have established the non-inferiority of hypofractionated radiotherapy compared to conventional fractionation. This study will determine real-world hypofractionation adoption across different geographic regions for breast, prostate, cervical cancer, and bone metastases, and identify barriers and facilitators to its use. MATERIALS AND METHODS An anonymous, electronic survey was distributed from January 2018 through January 2019 to radiation oncologists through the ESTRO-GIRO initiative. Predictors of hypofractionation were identified in univariable and multivariable regression analyses. RESULTS 2316 radiation oncologists responded. Hypofractionation was preferred in node-negative breast cancer following lumpectomy (82·2% vs. 46·7% for node-positive; p < 0.001), and in low- and intermediate-risk prostate cancer (57·5% and 54·5%, respectively, versus 41·2% for high-risk (p < 0.001)). Hypofractionation was used in 32·3% of cervix cases in Africa, but <10% in other regions (p < 0.001). For palliative indications, hypofractionation was preferred by the majority of respondents. Lack of long-term data and concerns about local control and toxicity were the most commonly cited barriers. In adjusted analyses, hypofractionation was least common for curative indications amongst low- and lower-middle-income countries, Asia-Pacific, female respondents, small catchment areas, and in centres without access to intensity modulated radiotherapy. CONCLUSION Significant variation was observed in hypofractionation across curative indications and between regions, with greater concordance in palliation. Using inadequate fractionation schedules may impede the delivery of affordable and accessible radiotherapy. Greater regionally-targeted and disease-specific education on evidence-based fractionation schedules is needed to improve utilization, along with best-case examples addressing practice barriers and supporting policy reform.
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Affiliation(s)
- Danielle Rodin
- Radiation Medicine Program, Princess Margaret Cancer Centre, Toronto, Canada; Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Toronto, Canada.
| | - Bouchra Tawk
- German Cancer Research Consortium, Core Site Heidelberg, German Cancer Research Center, Heidelberg, Germany; Division of Molecular and Translational Radiation Oncology, Department of Radiation Oncology, Heidelberg Faculty of Medicine and Heidelberg University Hospital, Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Osama Mohamad
- Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas, United States
| | - Surbhi Grover
- Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, United States; Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, United States
| | - Fabio Y Moraes
- Department of Oncology, Division of Radiation Oncology, Queen's University, Kingston, Canada
| | - Mei Ling Yap
- Collaboration for Cancer Outcomes, Research and Evaluation (CCORE), Ingham Institute, UNSW Sydney, Liverpool, Australia; Liverpool and Macarthur Cancer Therapy Centres, Western Sydney University, Campbelltown, Australia
| | | | - Yolande Lievens
- Ghent University Hospital and Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium
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13
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Liu XX, Fong SJ, Dey N, Crespo RG, Herrera-Viedma E. A new SEAIRD pandemic prediction model with clinical and epidemiological data analysis on COVID-19 outbreak. APPL INTELL 2021; 51:4162-4198. [PMID: 34764574 PMCID: PMC7775669 DOI: 10.1007/s10489-020-01938-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 09/11/2020] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
Measuring the spread of disease during a pandemic is critically important for accurately and promptly applying various lockdown strategies, so to prevent the collapse of the medical system. The latest pandemic of COVID-19 that hits the world death tolls and economy loss very hard, is more complex and contagious than its precedent diseases. The complexity comes mostly from the emergence of asymptomatic patients and relapse of the recovered patients which were not commonly seen during SARS outbreaks. These new characteristics pertaining to COVID-19 were only discovered lately, adding a level of uncertainty to the traditional SEIR models. The contribution of this paper is that for the COVID-19 epidemic, which is infectious in both the incubation period and the onset period, we use neural networks to learn from the actual data of the epidemic to obtain optimal parameters, thereby establishing a nonlinear, self-adaptive dynamic coefficient infectious disease prediction model. On the basis of prediction, we considered control measures and simulated the effects of different control measures and different strengths of the control measures. The epidemic control is predicted as a continuous change process, and the epidemic development and control are integrated to simulate and forecast. Decision-making departments make optimal choices. The improved model is applied to simulate the COVID-19 epidemic in the United States, and by comparing the prediction results with the traditional SEIR model, SEAIRD model and adaptive SEAIRD model, it is found that the adaptive SEAIRD model's prediction results of the U.S. COVID-19 epidemic data are in good agreement with the actual epidemic curve. For example, from the prediction effect of these 3 different models on accumulative confirmed cases, in terms of goodness of fit, adaptive SEAIRD model (0.99997) ≈ SEAIRD model (0.98548) > Classical SEIR model (0.66837); in terms of error value: adaptive SEAIRD model (198.6563) < < SEAIRD model(4739.8577) < < Classical SEIR model (22,652.796); The objective of this contribution is mainly on extending the current spread prediction model. It incorporates extra compartments accounting for the new features of COVID-19, and fine-tunes the new model with neural network, in a bid of achieving a higher level of prediction accuracy. Based on the SEIR model of disease transmission, an adaptive model called SEAIRD with internal source and isolation intervention is proposed. It simulates the effects of the changing behaviour of the SARS-CoV-2 in U.S. Neural network is applied to achieve a better fit in SEAIRD. Unlike the SEIR model, the adaptive SEAIRD model embraces multi-group dynamics which lead to different evolutionary trends during the epidemic. Through the risk assessment indicators of the adaptive SEAIRD model, it is convenient to measure the severity of the epidemic situation for consideration of different preventive measures. Future scenarios are projected from the trends of various indicators by running the adaptive SEAIRD model.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xian-Xian Liu
- Department of Computer and Information Science, University of Macau, SAR, Macau, China
| | - Simon James Fong
- Department of Computer and Information Science, University of Macau, SAR, Macau, China ,DACC Laboratory, Zhuhai Institutes of Advanced Technology of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Zhuhai, China
| | - Nilanjan Dey
- Department of Computer Science and Engineering, JIS University, Kolkata, India
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