Identifying 'win-win-win' futures from inequitable value chain trade-offs: A system dynamics approach

Investigating market-based opportunities for the provision of nutritious and safe diets to prevent childhood stunting: a UKRI-GCRF action against stunting hub protocol paper

BACKGROUND

Inadequate access to affordable, safe, desirable and convenient nutrient-dense food is one of the underlying causes of child stunting. While targeted nutrition-sensitive interventions (eg, backyard 'nutri-gardens') may increase dietary diversity within farming households, such interventions have limited scalability across the wider food system where markets remain underdeveloped. This research aims to develop and assess market-based interventions for key nutrient-dense foods to help improve the diets of women and children in the first 1000 days of life.

METHODS

Data collection uses four parallel approaches in each of the three study countries (India, Indonesia and Senegal). (1) A novel food environment tool will be developed to characterise the accessibility and affordability of nutrient-dense foods in the study countries. The tool will be validated through pretesting using cognitive interviewing and piloting in purposively sampled households, 10 (cognitive interviewing) and 30 (piloting) households in each country; (2) stakeholder interviews (eg, with producers, intermediaries and retailers) will be conducted to map out nutrition-sensitive entry points of key value chains (eg, animal-sourced foods), before hotspots of potential food safety hazards will be identified from food samples collected along the chains; (3) the Optifood and Agrifood tools will be used to identify foods that can address food system nutrient gaps and engage key stakeholders to prioritise market interventions to improve nutrition outcomes. Optifood and Agrifood parameters will be informed by publicly available data, plus interviews and focus groups with value chain stakeholders; (4) informed by the previous three approaches and a campaign of participatory 'group model building', a novel system dynamics model will evaluate the impact of alternative market-based solutions on the availability and affordability of nutrient-dense foods over time.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The study has received ethical approval in the United Kingdom, Senegal, Indonesia and India. Dissemination comprises peer-reviewed journals, international disciplinary conferences and multistakeholder dissemination workshops.

Identifying value chain trade-offs from fruit and vegetable aggregation services in Bangladesh using a system dynamics approach

Significant progress has been made in cereal production in Bangladesh due to an agricultural policy environment that prioritizes the productivity of staple crops over fruit and vegetables (F&V). However, many smallholder farmers remain poorly connected to markets, which may lead to a limited supply response of F&V that can reduce opportunities for sufficient intake in neglected, consumer-facing, smaller retail markets. To address this issue, aggregation schemes have been conceived that collect and transport F&Vs on behalf of multiple farmers. Given the volume of horticultural produce produced and the reliance on developed transport infrastructure, aggregation schemes tend to supply wholesale and urban markets rather than underdeveloped rural and isolated markets. To this end, we investigated how a particular aggregation intervention ('Loop') could potentially improve the distribution of F&V to smaller markets whilst improving farmer benefits. We used an innovative system dynamics modeling approach based on Loop`s aggregation services in Jashore, Bangladesh, and to identify the potential trade-offs between consumer outcomes in retail markets and farmer benefits. We find that combining aggregation with a quota at the smaller market, transport subsidy, and current price growth does not result in trade-offs between consumer purchases and farmers`benefits. However, combining aggregation with current price growth can increase demand without losing farmers`benefits. The findings emphasize that standalone and multiple market-oriented interventions generate broader win-win benefits to promote inclusive food systems.

System dynamics model for an agile pharmaceutical supply chain during COVID‑19 pandemic in Iran

Unpredictable changes in the current business environment have made organizations pay attention to the concept of agility. This concept is a key feature to survive and compete in turbulent markets while considering customers' fluctuating needs. An organization's agility is a function of its supply chain's agility. The present study offers a System Dynamics (SD) model for Iran's Pharmaceutical Supply Chain (PSC). The model is presented in three steps. First, the Supply Chain (SC) indicators were extracted based on theoretical foundations and literature review results. Second, an SD model of the PSC was extracted in the context of the COVID‑19 pandemic with the necessary analyses. Finally, the desired outputs and strategies were obtained by conducting a case study. The results indicated that the PSC's highest agility could be guaranteed by the simultaneous implementation of three strategies: investment, Human Capital Development (HCD), and accelerated completion of ongoing projects on a priority basis. According to these results, the organization had better determine the amount of capital and workforce required for ongoing projects, then design funding solutions to implement these projects and implement them according to the projects' priority.

Emissions reduction strategy in a three-stage agrifood value chain: A dynamic differential game approach

Agrifood systems account for 31% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Substantial emissions reduction in agrifood systems is critical to achieving the temperature goal set by the Paris Agreement. A key challenge in reducing GHG emissions in the agrifood value chain is the imbalanced allocation of benefits and costs associated with emissions reduction among agrifood value chain participants. However, only a few studies have examined agrifood emissions reduction from a value chain perspective, especially using dynamic methods to investigate participants' long-term emissions reduction strategies. This paper helps fill this gap in the existing literature by examining the impact of collaborations among agrifood value chain participants on correcting those misallocations and reducing emissions in agrifood systems. We develop a dynamic differential game model to examine participants' long-term emissions reduction strategies in a three-stage agrifood value chain. We use the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation to derive the Nash equilibrium emissions reduction strategies under non-cooperative, cost-sharing, and cooperative mechanisms. We then conduct numerical analysis and sensitivity analysis to validate our model. Our results show that collaboration among value chain participants leads to higher emissions reduction efforts and profits for the entire value chain. Specifically, based on our numerical results, the cooperative mechanism results in the greatest emissions reduction effort by the three participants, which leads to a total that is nearly three times higher than that of the non-cooperative mechanism and close to two times higher than the cost-sharing mechanism. The cooperative mechanism also recorded the highest profits for the entire value chain, surpassing the non-cooperative and cost-sharing mechanisms by around 37% and 16%, respectively. Our results provide valuable insights for policymakers and agrifood industry stakeholders to develop strategies and policies encouraging emissions reduction collaborations in the agrifood value chain and reduce emissions in the agrifood systems.

Sustainability in the global value chain-a scientometric analysis

For its promise in enhancing sustainability, the global value chain (GVC) has grown in relevance and sparked many studies. Due to different value activities in multiple countries and industry clusters, the competition and cooperation among value chains have attracted the considerable attention of business leaders and academicians worldwide. GVC-related sustainability research is a niche area despite its widespread presence in the literature. To bridge the gap, we use scientometric analysis in this paper, examining the corpus of 753 articles published in Web of Science journals from 2001 till 2021. This review illuminates the research performance constituents (e.g., most prolific authors, nations, institutions, and journals), the themes and issues that underpin the fields' intellectual structure, and transforming discoveries. GVC depends on nine basic clusters for sustainability research (i.e., global value chain participation, gendered global production network, repositioning organisational dynamics, labour stands, learning opportunities, Internet era). Future studies can be conducted to generate new knowledge across ten thematic (based on keywords) clusters (i.e., market liberalisation, trade pollution nexus, value chain dynamics, global value chain reconfiguration, non-governmental organisation, multipolar governance). A model that encompasses current knowledge of the global value chain for sustainability is developed, and avenues for future research are provided.

Investigating the Socio-Economic and Livelihoods Impacts of African Swine Fever in Timor-Leste: An Application of Spatial Group Model Building

Small-scale pig farming is highly important to the economic and social status of households in Timor-Leste. The presence of an African Swine Fever (ASF) outbreak in Timor-Leste was confirmed in 2019, a major concern given that around 70% of agricultural households practice pig farming. This research used a virtual spatial group model building process to construct a concept model to better understand the main feedback loops that determine the socio-economic and livelihood impacts of the ASF outbreak. After discussing the interaction of reinforcing and balancing feedback loops in the concept model, potential leverage points for intervention are suggested that could reduce the impacts of ASF within socio-economic spheres. These include building trust between small-scale farmers and veterinary technicians, strengthening government veterinary services, and the provision of credit conditional on biosecurity investments to help restock the industry. This conceptual model serves as a starting point for further research and the future development of a quantitative system dynamics (SD) model which would allow ex-ante scenario-testing of various policy and technical mitigation strategies of ASF outbreaks in Timor-Leste and beyond. Lessons learned from the blended offline/online approach to training and workshop facilitation are also explored in the paper.

Can fruit and vegetable aggregation systems better balance improved producer livelihoods with more equitable distribution?

The need for food systems to generate sustainable and equitable benefits for all is a global imperative. However, whilst ample evidence exists linking smallholder farmer coordination and aggregation (i.e. the collective transport and marketing of produce on behalf of multiple farmers) to improved market participation and farmer incomes, the extent to which interventions that aim to improve farmer market engagement may co-develop equitable consumer benefits remains uncertain. This challenge is pertinent to the horticultural systems of South Asia, where the increasing purchasing power of urban consumers, lengthening urban catchments, underdeveloped rural infrastructures and inadequate local demands combine to undermine the delivery of fresh fruits and vegetables to smaller, often rural or semi-rural markets serving nutritionally insecure populations. To this end, we investigate the potential for aggregation to be developed to increase fruit and vegetable delivery to these neglected smaller markets, whilst simultaneously improving farmer returns. Using an innovative system dynamics modelling approach based on an aggregation scheme in Bihar, India, we identify potential trade-offs between outcomes relating to farmers and consumers in smaller local markets. We find that changes to aggregation alone (i.e. scaling-up participation; subsidising small market transportation; mandating quotas for smaller markets) are unable to achieve significant improvements in smaller market delivery without risking reduced farmer participation in aggregation. Contrastingly, combining aggregation with the introduction of market-based cold storage and measures that boost demand improves fruit and vegetable availability significantly in smaller markets, whilst avoiding farmer-facing trade-offs. Critically, our study emphasises the benefits that may be attained from combining multiple nutrition-sensitive market interventions, and stresses the need for policies that narrow the fruit and vegetable cold storage deficits that exist away from more lucrative markets in developing countries. The future pathways and policy options discovered work towards making win-win futures for farmers and disadvantaged consumers a reality.