Predicting waiting and treatment times in emergency departments using ordinal logistic regression models

The Effects of Displaying the Time Targets of the Manchester Triage System to Emergency Department Personnel: Prospective Crossover Study

BACKGROUND

The use of triage systems such as the Manchester Triage System (MTS) is a standard procedure to determine the sequence of treatment in emergency departments (EDs). When using the MTS, time targets for treatment are determined. These are commonly displayed in the ED information system (EDIS) to ED staff. Using measurements as targets has been associated with a decline in meeting those targets.

OBJECTIVE

This study investigated the impact of displaying time targets for treatment to physicians on processing times in the ED.

METHODS

We analyzed the effects of displaying time targets to ED staff on waiting times in a prospective crossover study, during the introduction of a new EDIS in a large regional hospital in Germany. The old information system version used a module that showed the time target determined by the MTS, while the new system version used a priority list instead. Evaluation was based on 35,167 routinely collected electronic health records from the preintervention period and 10,655 records from the postintervention period. Electronic health records were extracted from the EDIS, and data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and generalized additive models. We evaluated the effects of the intervention on waiting times and the odds of achieving timely treatment according to the time targets set by the MTS.

RESULTS

The average ED length of stay and waiting times increased when the EDIS that did not display time targets was used (average time from admission to treatment: preintervention phase=median 15, IQR 6-39 min; postintervention phase=median 11, IQR 5-23 min). However, severe cases with high acuity (as indicated by the triage score) benefited from lower waiting times (0.15 times as high as in the preintervention period for MTS1, only 0.49 as high for MTS2). Furthermore, these patients were less likely to receive delayed treatment, and we observed reduced odds of late treatment when crowding occurred.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that it is beneficial to use a priority list instead of displaying time targets to ED personnel. These time targets may lead to false incentives. Our work highlights that working better is not the same as working faster.

Characteristics and Admission Preferences of Pediatric Emergency Patients and Their Waiting Time Prediction Using Electronic Medical Record Data: Retrospective Comparative Analysis

BACKGROUND

The growing number of patients visiting pediatric emergency departments could have a detrimental impact on the care provided to children who are triaged as needing urgent attention. Therefore, it has become essential to continuously monitor and analyze the admissions and waiting times of pediatric emergency patients. Despite the significant challenge posed by the shortage of pediatric medical resources in China's health care system, there have been few large-scale studies conducted to analyze visits to the pediatric emergency room.

OBJECTIVE

This study seeks to examine the characteristics and admission patterns of patients in the pediatric emergency department using electronic medical record (EMR) data. Additionally, it aims to develop and assess machine learning models for predicting waiting times for pediatric emergency department visits.

METHODS

This retrospective analysis involved patients who were admitted to the emergency department of Children's Hospital Capital Institute of Pediatrics from January 1, 2021, to December 31, 2021. Clinical data from these admissions were extracted from the electronic medical records, encompassing various variables of interest such as patient demographics, clinical diagnoses, and time stamps of clinical visits. These indicators were collected and compared. Furthermore, we developed and evaluated several computational models for predicting waiting times.

RESULTS

In total, 183,024 eligible admissions from 127,368 pediatric patients were included. During the 12-month study period, pediatric emergency department visits were most frequent among children aged less than 5 years, accounting for 71.26% (130,423/183,024) of the total visits. Additionally, there was a higher proportion of male patients (104,147/183,024, 56.90%) compared with female patients (78,877/183,024, 43.10%). Fever (50,715/183,024, 27.71%), respiratory infection (43,269/183,024, 23.64%), celialgia (9560/183,024, 5.22%), and emesis (6898/183,024, 3.77%) were the leading causes of pediatric emergency room visits. The average daily number of admissions was 501.44, and 18.76% (34,339/183,204) of pediatric emergency department visits resulted in discharge without a prescription or further tests. The median waiting time from registration to seeing a doctor was 27.53 minutes. Prolonged waiting times were observed from April to July, coinciding with an increased number of arrivals, primarily for respiratory diseases. In terms of waiting time prediction, machine learning models, specifically random forest, LightGBM, and XGBoost, outperformed regression methods. On average, these models reduced the root-mean-square error by approximately 17.73% (8.951/50.481) and increased the R2 by approximately 29.33% (0.154/0.525). The SHAP method analysis highlighted that the features "wait.green" and "department" had the most significant influence on waiting times.

CONCLUSIONS

This study offers a contemporary exploration of pediatric emergency room visits, revealing significant variations in admission rates across different periods and uncovering certain admission patterns. The machine learning models, particularly ensemble methods, delivered more dependable waiting time predictions. Patient volume awaiting consultation or treatment and the triage status emerged as crucial factors contributing to prolonged waiting times. Therefore, strategies such as patient diversion to alleviate congestion in emergency departments and optimizing triage systems to reduce average waiting times remain effective approaches to enhance the quality of pediatric health care services in China.

The effect of different mobile uses on crash frequency among young drivers: application of statistical models and clustering analysis

This study focuses on investigating the use of mobile phones among young drivers by employing an online questionnaire survey data. Ordinal logistic regression model was used for modelling the probabilities of crashes due to different uses of mobile phone while driving. Moreover, binary logistic regression models were used for predicting the probabilities of different uses of mobile phone. Logistic regression models revealed that texting and internet use have the same likelihood of causing crashes. Drivers having prior experience of being fined for mobile phone use, also showed a higher tendency to be involved in 2 crashes. Moreover, these drivers had a higher likelihood of being involved in texting, as compared to other uses of mobile phones. Drivers with more education had a higher tendency for internet use during driving. Drivers who use mobile phone for long periods during driving have a lesser tendency to get involved in texting, internet use or GPS navigation. Moreover, drivers with a previous crash record have less likelihood of being involved in texting. The models of this study can be useful in developing effective road safety measures. Clustering was also applied in this study which reinforced the findings of the statistical analysis and models.

Main Features and Control Strategies to Reduce Overcrowding in Emergency Departments: A Systematic Review of the Literature

Purpose

Overcrowding is a problem that affects emergency departments (ED) all over the world; it occurs due to a disproportion between user demand and the physical, human and structural resources available. Essential prerequisites to assessing and managing the phenomenon are its accurate measurement and an understanding of its impact. The objective of this systematic review is to identify the characteristics of the problem, analyzing the proposed strategies aimed at improving patient flow, delay in services provided and overcrowding of emergency departments.

Methods

To achieve our objectives, a manual computerized search was performed in the bibliographic databases using as keywords "Emergency Department", "Overcrowding", "Emergency Room", "Emergency Service", "Emergency Unit"",Emergency Ward", "Emergency Outpatient Unit", "Emergency Hospital", "Crowding", "Mass Gathering", "Management" and "Comprehensive Health Care". Two independent reviewers analyzed abstracts, titles and full text articles for admissibility, according to the selected inclusion and exclusion criteria.

Results

The process lead to include 19 articles. It was possible to group the solutions proposed in five categories: work organization, investment in primary care, creation of new dedicated professional figures, work and structural modifications and implementation of predictive simulation models using mathematical algorithms.

Conclusion

The most effective measures to guarantee an improvement in the flow of patients are represented by both improving the efficiency of human resources and by developing predictive mathematical models, regardless of the type of hospital and its location. Considering the complexity of EDs and the multiple characteristics of overcrowding and that the causes of crowding are different and site-specific, a careful examination of the specifics of each ED is necessary to identify improving fields.

Research on Industry Data Analytics on Processing Procedure of Named 3-4-8-2 Components Combination for the Application Identification in New Chain Convenience Store

With the rapid economic boom of Asian countries, the president of Country-A has made great efforts to reform in recent years. The prospect of economic development is promising, and business opportunities are emerging gradually, depicting a prosperous scene; accordingly, people’s livelihood consumption also has changed significantly. The original main point of consumption for urban and rural people was the old and traditional grocery store with poor sanitation, but due to the economic improvement, the quality of consumption has also improved, and convenience stores are gradually replacing grocery store. However, convenience store management involves performance, logistic, competition, and personnel costs. Both whether the store can create a net profit and evaluate and select a new store will be important keys that significantly influence business performance. Therefore, this study attempts to use the industry data analysis method for highlighting a concept of processing an experience procedure of named 3-4-8-2 components combination in two stages. First, in the data preprocessing stage, this research considers 22 condition attributes and two types of decision factors, that include net profit and new store selection, and use both techniques of attribute selection and data discretization through the analysis and prediction of data mining tools. Next, in the experiment execution stage, three well-known classifiers (Bayes net, logistic regression, and J48 decision tree) with past good performance and four models (without preprocessing, with attribute selection, with data discretization, and with attribute selection and data discretization) are used for eight different experiments through two data verification methods (percentage split and cross-validation). Conclusively, three key results are identified from empirical analysis: (1) It is found that the prediction accuracy of the J48 decision tree classifier is relatively high and stable among the three classifiers in this study; at the same time, the J48 decision tree can yield comprehensible knowledge-based rules to instruct interested parties. (2) The results of this study show that the important attributes for the net profit decision attribute include the store type, POS number, and cashier number, while the important attributes for the new store selection include the store type and cashier number. (3) There is a difference in the selection of important attributes. Furthermore, four key valuable contributions are addressed from the empirical results, including academic contributions, enterprise contributions, application contributions, and management contributions. It is expected that the direction of store layout expansion can be found and identified through this study, but there are still many risks hidden behind the considerable business opportunities that need to be carefully managed.

Factors Relating to Decision Delay in the Emergency Department: Effects of Diagnostic Tests and Consultations

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to investigate the factors increasing waiting time (WT) and length of stay (LOS) in patients, which may cause delays in decision-making in the emergency departments (ED).

Patients and Methods

Patients who arrived at a training hospital in the central region of Izmir City, Turkey, during the first quarter of 2020 were retrospectively analyzed. WT and LOS were the outcome variables of the study, and gender, age, arrival type, triage level determined based on the clinical acuity, diagnosis encoded based on International Classification of Diseases-10 (ICD-10), the existence of diagnostic tests or consultation status were the identified factors. The significance of the differences in WT and LOS values based on each level of these factors was analyzed using independent sample t-tests and ANOVA.

Results

While patients for which no diagnostic testing or consultation was requested had a significantly higher WT in EDs, their LOS values were substantially lower than those for which at least one diagnostic test or consultation was ordered (p≤0.001). Besides, elderly and red zone patients and those who arrived by ambulance had significantly lower WT and higher LOS values than other levels for all groups of patients for which laboratory-type or imaging-type diagnostic test or consultation was requested (p≤0.001 for each comparison).

Conclusion

Besides ordering diagnostic tests or consultation in EDs, different factors may extend patients' WT and LOS values and cause significant decision-making delays. Understanding the patient characteristics associated with longer waiting times and LOS values and, thus, delayed decisions will enable practitioners to improve operations management in EDs.

Developing a machine learning model to predict patient need for computed tomography imaging in the emergency department

Overcrowding is a well-known problem in hospitals and emergency departments (ED) that can negatively impact patients and staff. This study aims to present a machine learning model to detect a patient's need for a Computed Tomography (CT) exam in the emergency department at the earliest possible time. The data for this work was collected from ED at Thunder Bay Regional Health Sciences Centre over one year (05/2016-05/2017) and contained administrative triage information. The target outcome was whether or not a patient required a CT exam. Multiple combinations of text embedding methods, machine learning algorithms, and data resampling methods were experimented with to find the optimal model for this task. The final model was trained with 81, 118 visits and tested on a hold-out test set with a size of 9, 013 visits. The best model achieved a ROC AUC score of 0.86 and had a sensitivity of 87.3% and specificity of 70.9%. The most important factors that led to a CT scan order were found to be chief complaint, treatment area, and triage acuity. The proposed model was able to successfully identify patients needing a CT using administrative triage data that is available at the initial stage of a patient's arrival. By determining that a CT scan is needed early in the patient's visit, the ED can allocate resources to ensure these investigations are completed quickly and patient flow is maintained to reduce overcrowding.

Big data analytics and the effects of government restrictions and prohibitions in the COVID-19 pandemic on emergency department sustainable operations

Grounded in dynamic capabilities, this study mainly aims to model emergency departments' (EDs) sustainable operations in the current situation caused by the COVID-19 pandemic by using emerging big data analytics (BDA) technologies. Since government may impose some restrictions and prohibitions in coping with emergencies to protect the functioning of EDs, it also aims to investigate how such policies affect ED operations. The proposed model is designed by collecting big data from multiple sources and implementing BDA to transform it into action for providing efficient responses to emergencies. The model is validated in modeling the daily number of patients, the average daily length of stay (LOS), and daily numbers of laboratory tests and radiologic imaging tests ordered. It is applied in a case study representing a large-scale ED. The data set covers a seven-month period which collectively means the periods before COVID-19 and during COVID-19, and includes data from 238,152 patients. Comparing statistics on daily patient volumes, average LOS, and resource usage, both before and during the COVID-19 pandemic, we found that patient characteristics and demographics changed in COVID-19. While 18.92% and 27.22% of the patients required laboratory and radiologic imaging tests before-COVID-19 study period, these percentages were increased to 31.52% and 39.46% during-COVID-19 study period. By analyzing the effects of policy-based variables in the model, we concluded that policies might cause sharp decreases in patient volumes. While the total number of patients arriving before-COVID-19 was 158,347, it decreased to 79,805 during-COVID-19. On the other hand, while the average daily LOS was 117.53 min before-COVID-19, this value was calculated to be 165,03 min during-COVID-19 study period. We finally showed that the model had a prediction accuracy of between 80 to 95%. While proposing an efficient model for sustainable operations management in EDs for dynamically changing environments caused by emergencies, it empirically investigates the impact of different policies on ED operations.

How machine learning facilitates decision making in emergency departments: Modelling diagnostic test orders

OBJECTIVES

Since emergency departments (EDs) are responsible for providing initial care for patients who may need urgent medical care, they are highly sensitive to increased patient delays. A key factor that increases patient delays is ordering diagnostic tests. Therefore, understanding the factors increasing diagnostic test orders and proposing efficient models may facilitate decision making in EDs.

METHODS

Month and week of the year, day of the week, and daily numbers of patients encoded based on 21 different ICD-10 codes were used as input variables. Daily test frequencies of patients requiring tests from laboratory and imaging services were modelled separately by linear regression models. Although significance of the input variables was identified based on these models, obtained forecasts and residuals were further processed by machine learning techniques to obtain hybrid models.

RESULTS

Day of the week, and number of patients with ICD-10 codes of 'A00-B99', 'I00-I99', 'J00-J99', 'M00-M99' and 'R00-R99' were significant in both test types. In addition to these, although daily patient frequencies with 'H60-H95', 'N00-N99' and 'O00-O9A' were significant for laboratory services, 'L00-L99', 'S00-T88' and 'Z00-Z99' were significant for imaging services. Although prediction accuracies of regression models were, respectively, as 93.658% and 95.028% for laboratory and imaging services modelling, they increased to 99.997% and 99.995% with the machine learning-integrated hybrid model.

CONCLUSION

The significant factors identified here can predict increases in use of laboratory and imaging services. This could enable these services to be prepared in advance to reduce ED patient delays, thereby reducing ED overcrowding. The proposed model may also be efficiently used for decision making.

A Smart Helmet-Based PLS-BPNN Error Compensation Model for Infrared Body Temperature Measurement of Construction Workers during COVID-19

In the context of the long-term coexistence between COVID-19 and human society, the implementation of personnel health monitoring in construction sites has become one of the urgent needs of current construction management. The installation of infrared temperature sensors on the helmets required to be worn by construction personnel to track and monitor their body temperature has become a relatively inexpensive and reliable means of epidemic prevention and control, but the accuracy of measuring body temperature has always been a problem. This study developed a smart helmet equipped with an infrared temperature sensor and conducted a simulated construction experiment to collect data of temperature and its influencing factors in indoor and outdoor construction operation environments. Then, a Partial Least Square–Back Propagation Neural Network (PLS-BPNN) temperature error compensation model was established to correct the temperature measurement results of the smart helmet. The temperature compensation effects of different models were also compared, including PLS-BPNN with Least Square Regression (LSR), Partial Least Square Regression (PLSR), and single Back Propagation Neural Network (BPNN) models. The results showed that the PLS-BPNN model had higher accuracy and reliability, and the determination coefficient of the model was 0.99377. After using PLS-BPNN model for compensation, the relative average error of infrared body temperature was reduced by 2.745 °C and RMSE was reduced by 0.9849. The relative error range of infrared body temperature detection was only 0.005~0.143 °C.

Big Data-Enabled Analysis of Factors Affecting Patient Waiting Time in the Nephrology Department of a Large Tertiary Hospital

The length of waiting time has become an important indicator of the efficiency of medical services and the quality of medical care. Lengthy waiting times for patients will inevitably affect their mood and reduce satisfaction. For patients who are in urgent need of hospitalization, delayed admission often leads to exacerbation of the patient's condition and may threaten the patient's life. We gathered patients' information about outpatient visits and hospital admissions in the Nephrology Department of a large tertiary hospital in western China from January 1st, 2014, to December 31st, 2016, and we used big data-enabled analysis methods, including univariate analysis and multivariate linear regression models, to explore the factors affecting waiting time. We found that gender (P=0.048), the day of issuing the admission card (Saturday, P=0.028), the applied period for admission (P < 0.001), and the registration interval (P < 0.001) were positive influencing factors of patients' waiting time. Disease type (after kidney transplantation, P < 0.001), number of diagnoses (P=0.037), and the day of issuing the admission card (Sunday, P=0.001) were negative factors. A linear regression model built using these data performed well in the identification of factors affecting the waiting time of patients in the Nephrology Department. These results can be extended to other departments and could be valuable for improving patient satisfaction and hospital service quality by identifying the factors affecting waiting time.