Developing a methodology to collect empirical data that informs policy and practices for stockpiling personal protective equipment

Contributing to health system resilience during pandemics via purchasing and supply strategies: an exploratory system dynamics approach

BACKGROUND

Health systems worldwide struggled to obtain sufficient personal protective equipment (PPE) and ventilators during the COVID-19 pandemic due to global supply chain disruptions. Our study's aim was to create a proof-of-concept model that would simulate the effects of supply strategies under various scenarios, to ultimately help decision-makers decide on alternative supply strategies for future similar health system related crises.

METHODS

We developed a system dynamics model that linked a disease transmission model structure (susceptible, exposed, infectious, recovered (SEIR)) with a model for the availability of critical supplies in hospitals; thereby connecting care demand (patients' critical care in hospitals), with care supply (available critical equipment and supplies). To inform the model structure, we used data on critical decisions and events taking place surrounding purchase, supply, and availability of PPE and ventilators during the first phase of the COVID-19 pandemic within the English national health system. We used exploratory modelling and analysis to assess the effects of uncertainties on different supply strategies in the English health system under different scenarios. Strategies analysed were: (i) purchasing from the world market or (ii) through direct tender, (iii) stockpiling, (iv) domestic production, (v) supporting innovative supply strategies, or (vi) loaning ventilators from the private sector.

RESULTS

We found through our exploratory analysis that a long-lasting shortage in PPE and ventilators is likely to be apparent in various scenarios. When considering the worst-case scenario, our proof-of-concept model shows that purchasing PPE and ventilators from the world market or through direct tender have the greatest influence on reducing supply shortages, compared to producing domestically or through supporting innovative supply strategies. However, these supply strategies are affected most by delays in their shipment time or set-up.

CONCLUSION

We demonstrated that using a system dynamics and exploratory modelling approach can be helpful in identifying the purchasing and supply chain strategies that contribute to the preparedness and responsiveness of health systems during crises. Our results suggest that to improve health systems' resilience during pandemics or similar resource-constrained situations, purchasing and supply chain decision-makers can develop crisis frameworks that propose a plan of action and consequently accelerate and improve procurement processes and other governance processes during health-related crises; implement diverse supplier frameworks; and (re)consider stockpiling. This proof-of-concept model demonstrates the importance of including critical supply chain strategies as part of the preparedness and response activities to contribute to health system resilience.

Elastomeric Half Mask Respirators: An Alternative to Disposable Respirators and a Solution to Shortages during Public Health Emergencies

During public health emergencies such as an influenza pandemic, disposable filtering facepiece respirator (FFR) shortages have a significant impact on the national response, affecting many types of workplaces that rely on respiratory protection. During the COVID-19 pandemic, severe FFR shortages led the CDC to publish strategies for optimizing the supply of N95 FFRs. These strategies included the extended use and limited reuse of FFRs, wearing decontaminated FFRs, wearing respirators that meet an international respirator standard, or wearing FFRs that were past their manufacturer-designated shelf life. An additional strategy to mitigate supply shortages that was highlighted during the COVID-19 pandemic was to wear reusable respirators, such as elastomeric half mask respirators (EHMRs), or powered air-purifying respirators, which can be cleaned, disinfected, and reused. A decade of nationwide initiatives to increase the utility of EHMRs in healthcare settings were realized during the COVID-19 pandemic as EHMRs became more well-known and were used in healthcare settings for respiratory protection. This expanded use of EHMRs led to an increase in federal procurement, research, guidance, and private sector research and development of innovative EHMR designs by manufacturers to respond to workers' needs for both respiratory protection and source control. This paper describes the role of reusable EHMRs before and during the COVID-19 pandemic, and reviews past and current research, to inform successful EHMR implementation in healthcare and first responder settings.

A General Framework to Test and Evaluate Filtering Facepiece Respirators Considered for Crisis Capacity Use as a Strategy to Optimize Supply

During a public health emergency, respirator shortages can have a profound impact on the national response, such as for the current coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Due to a severe shortage of respirators (particularly filtering facepiece respirators [FFRs]), there may be contexts in which understanding the performance of FFRs that are approved for use as part of a crisis capacity strategy is desired. This includes FFRs that are not covered under the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) Respirator Approval Program because they have been stored past their designated shelf life, have been decontaminated, or are approved by international certification bodies other than NIOSH. The purpose of this document is to provide a general framework to assess the performance of FFRs that are only being used as a crisis capacity strategy. The intended audience are those who are responsible for managing large amounts of FFRs. This framework includes a four-step process consisting of: 1) defining the population of FFRs to be sampled; 2) providing sampling strategy options; 3) inspecting and testing the sampled units; and 4) evaluating the results. In addition to the four-step process, we provide an example of how NIOSH recently evaluated the quality of FFRs sampled from ten U.S. stockpiles.