Are early human chorionic gonadotropin levels after methotrexate therapy a predictor of response in ectopic pregnancy?

Comparison of the success rates of a single dose and an additional dose of methotrexate on the 4th day in patients whose β-hCG values do not fall after a single dose of methotrexate (Day 0-4)

INTRODUCTION

This study's aim is to investigate whether the rise in β-hCG levels between days 0 and 4 in patients with tubal ectopic pregnancy who have received a single dose of methotrexate has prognostic value in treatment success, and to investigate whether administering a second dose on day 4 enhances treatment success.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Patients diagnosed with ectopic pregnancy and experiencing an increase in β- hCG levels on day 4 after initiation of methotrexate treatment were included in our study. Patients treated with a single dose Methotrexate (MTX) protocol until December 2019 were retrospectively screened from January 2018 to December 2019. Patients receiving a second dose on day 4 until September 2021 were prospectively enrolled from January 2020 to September 2021. A decrease of over 15 % in the β-hCG value after the 4th dose was considered as treatment success.

RESULTS

Treatment success rates were compared between these two groups. 115 patients with ectopic pregnancy were included in the study. A single dose methotrexate protocol was applied in 67 of the patients (Group 1), while an additional dose methotrexate was applied in 48 (Group 2). The treatment was successful in 40 patients (59.7 %) in Group 1 and in 39 patients (81.3 %) in Group 2. The success rate of the treatment was significantly higher in patients who received an additional dose methotrexate protocol (p = 0.014).

DISCUSSION

This study shows that; it is possible to increase success rates by applying an additional MTX dose on the 4th day in cases with an increase in β-hCG on the 4th day.

Day 4 and day 0 neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratios as predictors of treatment failure with single-dose methotrexate for ectopic pregnancies

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate changes in the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) between day 4 and day 0 in ectopic pregnancy (EP) patients treated with single-dose methotrexate (MTX) and investigate its predictive value for treatment outcome.

METHODS

A total of 406 EP patients receiving single-dose MTX therapy at Shanghai First Maternity and Infant Hospital from January 10, 2013 to September 30, 2019 were studied. A multivariate model was constructed to predict treatment outcome.

RESULTS

Among the 406 patients, 281 were treated successfully. Treatment success declined significantly when NLR decreased by less than 23% (74.8% vs 58.5%, P = 0.004). Multivariate regression analysis identified NLR reduction of less than 23% on day 4 (odds ratio [OR] 2.09, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.27-3.44), a human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) decrease of 15% or less (OR 3.17, 95% CI 1.62-6.34), and an hCG increase of more than 15% on day 4 (OR 5.47, 95% CI 3.05-10.22) as independent risk factors for single-dose MTX treatment failure. The final predictive model had a sensitivity of 0.768 and a specificity of 0.569, using a cut-off value of 3. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.712. Patients with a predictive score of ≥3 were more likely to fail single-dose MTX therapy.

CONCLUSION

The present study concluded that an NLR decrease of less than 23% on day 4, a plateau or increase in serum hCG on day 4, and an hCG value greater than 1000 mIU/mL on day 0 were predictors of single-dose MTX treatment failure in EP patients.

Early prediction of the failure of methotrexate treatment by Days 1-4 serum β-hCG change and 48-hour pre-treatment increment inβ-hCG

To determine whether the change of serum β-hCG levels between Days 1 and 4 and 48-h pre-treatment increment in β-hCG can early predict treatment failure of single-dose methotrexate (MTX) in tubal ectopic pregnancies (EP), a retrospective study of 1120 ectopic pregnancies treated with a regimen of a single dose of MTX was conducted in the Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, Shanghai First Maternity and Infant Hospital. Treatment failure was defined by an obligation to proceed to surgery or have an additional doses of methotrexate.1350 files were reviewed, with 1120 included for final analysis .64% (722/1120) had β-hCG levels increase on Day 4 after MTX treatment, while 36% (398/1120) had β-hCG levels fall. In this cohort, the treatment failure rate with a single dose of MTX was 15.7% (113/722), and the significant features in the logistic regression model of diagnosing the results of MTX treatment were the ratio of Day 1 to Day 48-h pre-treatment β-hCG values (Odds Ratio (OR) 1.221, 95% Confidence interval (CI) 1.159-1.294), the ratio of Day 4 to Day 1 β-hCG serum values (OR 1.098, 95% CI 1.014-1.226), and β-hCG values on Day 1 (OR 1.070, 95% CI 1.016-1.156). The decision tree model was developed by using increment of β-hCG in 48 h before treatment > =19%, the ratio of Day 4 to Day 1 β-hCG serum values > =36%, and β-hCG values on Day 1> =728 mIU/L to predict the failure of MTX treatment. The diagnostic accuracy, sensitivity and specificity in the test group were 97.22%, 100%, and 96.9%, respectively.IMPACT STATEMENTWhat is already known on this subject? A decrease of 15% β-hCG levels between Days 4 and 7 is a common protocol for predicting the success of a single-dose methotrexate therapy of an ectopic pregnancy.What do the results of this study add? This clinical study offers the cut-off values points for prediction of single-dose methotrexate treatment failure.What are the implications of these findings for clinical practice and/or further research? We identified the importance of β-hCG increase between Days 1 and 4 and β-hCG increment in 48 h pre-treatment for predicting the failure of single-dose methotrexate therapy. It can be used to aid the clinician to optimise the selection of the most appropriate treatment methods during a follow-up evaluation after MTX treatment.

Early (Days 1-4) post-treatment serum hCG level changes predict single-dose methotrexate treatment success in tubal ectopic pregnancy

STUDY QUESTION

What is the capacity of the change between Day 1 and Day 4 post-treatment serum human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) levels for predicting single-dose methotrexate treatment success in tubal ectopic pregnancy?

SUMMARY ANSWER

Any fall in Days 1-4 serum hCG signified an 85% (95% CI 76.8-90.6) likelihood of treatment success for women with tubal ectopic pregnancy (initial hCG of ≥1000 and ≤5000 IU/l) managed with single-dose methotrexate.

WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY

For those with tubal ectopic pregnancy managed by single-dose methotrexate, current guidelines advocate intervention if Days 4-7 hCG fails to fall by >15%. The trajectory of hCG over Days 1-4 has been proposed as an early indicator that predicts treatment success, allowing early reassurance for women. However, almost all prior studies of Days 1-4 hCG changes have been retrospective.

STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION

This was a prospective cohort study of women with tubal ectopic pregnancy (pre-treatment hCG of ≥1000 and ≤5000 IU/l) managed with single-dose methotrexate. The data were derived from a UK multicentre randomized controlled trial of methotrexate and gefitinib versus methotrexate and placebo for treatment of tubal ectopic pregnancy (GEM3). For this analysis, we include data from both treatment arms.

PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS

Participants were categorized according to single-dose methotrexate treatment success or failure. Treatment success for this analysis was defined as complete and uneventful resolution of tubal ectopic pregnancy to serum hCG <30 IU/l following single-dose methotrexate treatment without additional treatment. Patient characteristics of the treatment success and failure groups were compared. Changes in Days 1-4, 1-7, and 4-7 serum hCG were evaluated as predictors of treatment success through receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. Test performance characteristics were calculated for percentage change ranges and thresholds including optimal classification thresholds.

MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE

A total of 322 women with tubal ectopic pregnancy were treated with single-dose methotrexate. The overall single-dose methotrexate treatment success rate was 59% (n = 189/322). For any fall in serum hCG on Days 1-4, likelihood ratios were >3, while for any fall of serum hCG >20% on Days 1-7, likelihood ratios reached 5. Any rise of serum hCG on Days 1-7 and 4-7 strongly reduced the chance of success. Any fall in Days 1-4 hCG predicted single-dose methotrexate treatment success with a sensitivity of 58% and specificity 84%, resulting in positive and negative predictive values of 85% and 57%, respectively. Any rise in Days 1-4 serum hCG <18% was identified as an optimal test threshold that predicted treatment success with 79% sensitivity and 74% specificity, resulting in 82% positive predictive value and 69% negative predictive value.

LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION

Our findings may be limited by intervention bias resulting from existing guidelines which influences evaluation of hCG changes reliant on Day 7 serum hCG levels.

WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS

Examining a large prospective cohort, we show the value of Days 1-4 serum hCG changes in predicting single-dose methotrexate treatment success in tubal ectopic pregnancy. We recommend that clinicians provide early reassurance to women who have a fall or only a modest (<18%) rise in Days 1-4 serum hCG levels, that their treatment will likely be effective.

STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S)

This project was supported by funding from the Efficacy and Mechanism Evaluation programme, a Medical Research Council and National Institute for Health Research partnership (grant reference number 14/150/03). A.W.H. has received honoraria for consultancy for Ferring, Roche, Nordic Pharma and AbbVie. W.C.D. has received honoraria from Merck and Guerbet and research funding from Galvani Biosciences. L.H.R.W. has received research funding from Roche Diagnostics. B.W.M. is supported by a NHMRC Investigator grant (GNT1176437). B.W.M. also reports consultancy for ObsEva and Merck and travel support from Merck. The other authors declare no competing interests.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

This study is a secondary analysis of the GEM3 trial (ISRCTN Registry ISRCTN67795930).

Alternative beta-hCG follow-up protocols after single-dose methotrexate therapy for ectopic pregnancy: A retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

This study assessed the relevance of reductions in beta-hCG levels between days 0 and 4 and between days 0 and 7 after single-dose methotrexate therapy, and the success of the therapy.

STUDY DESIGN

A retrospective cohort study of 276 women diagnosed with ectopic pregnancy who received methotrexate as first-line treatment. Demographics, sonographic findings and beta-hCG levels and indexes were compared between women with successful and failed treatment outcomes.

RESULTS

The median beta-hCG levels were lower in the success than the failure group on days 0, 4 and 7: 385 (26-9134) vs. 1381 (28-6475), 329 (5-6909) vs. 1680 (32-6496) and 232 (1-4876) vs. 1563 (33-6368), respectively, P < 0.001 for all. The best cut-off for the change in beta-hCG level from day 0 to 4 was a 19% decrease; the sensitivity was 77.0% and specificity 60.0%, positive predictive value (PPV) was 85% CI 95 [78.7.1%-89.9%]. The best cut-off for the change in beta-hCG level from day 0 to 7 was a 10% decrease; the sensitivity was 80.1% and specificity 70.8%, PPV was 90.5% CI 95 [85.1%-94.5%].

CONCLUSIONS

A decrease of 10% in beta-hCG between days 0 and 7 and 19% between days 0 and 4 can be used as a predictor of treatment success in specific cases.

Time to resolution of tubal ectopic pregnancy following methotrexate treatment: A retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To determine the time to resolution of tubal ectopic pregnancy after methotrexate treatment.

METHODS

A 14-year retrospective cohort study was performed from 2004-2018 and assessed 216 women treated with single-dose methotrexate for tubal ectopic pregnancy. Women were treated using a single-dose protocol of intramuscular methotrexate (50mg/m2) for confirmed tubal ectopic pregnancy on ultrasound. Ectopic pregnancies were included if the ectopic pregnancy mass was <35mm, no evidence of rupture and no embryonic cardiac activity. Serum hCG was measured on day 1, 4 and 7 of treatment and then at standard weekly intervals until resolution. Where there was not a ≥15% decline in hCG from day 4 and day 7, a second dose of methotrexate was administered. The primary outcome was time to resolution (days), with serum hCG <5 IU/L considered resolved. The secondary outcome was need for rescue surgery.

RESULTS

Among women who did not proceed to surgery, the median time to resolution was 22 days (IQR 14,34). Time to resolution and need for rescue surgery increased with baseline hCG. When hCG was <1000 IU/L, the median was 20 days (IQR 13,29) but 34.5 days (IQR 22,48) with hCG >2000 IU/L. Early hCG trends were predictive of time to resolution and likelihood of rescue surgery; a hCG rise of >1000 IU/L between Days 1-4 increased time to resolution to 61 days (IQR 35,80) and an odds ratio of rescue surgery of 28.6 (95% C.I. 5.3,155.4).

CONCLUSION

The median time to resolution for ectopic pregnancies treated with methotrexate is 22 days and associated with baseline hCG levels. The predictive value of baseline hCG may be useful in clinical decision making and counselling women considering methotrexate for ectopic pregnancy.

Predictors and clinical features of methotrexate (MTX) therapy for ectopic pregnancy

BACKGROUND

Ectopic pregnancy is a major life- and fertility-threatening women's health concern. As a result of advances in examination technology, an increasing number of ectopic pregnancies can be diagnosed early and treated with medical methods instead of surgery. The aim of this study was to summarize the clinical features and identify the predictors of success of methotrexate (MTX) treatment of ectopic pregnancy.

METHODS

This was a retrospective study of 238 ectopic pregnancies treated with MTX in the Department of Gynecology of Shaanxi Provincial People's Hospital from January 2017 to December 2017.

RESULTS

Patients were divided into two groups: the successful treatment group (n = 166) and the failed treatment group (n = 72). The overall success rate of MTX therapy for ectopic pregnancy was 69.75%. The mean initial beta-human chorionic gonadotropin (β-hCG) level was significantly lower in the successful treatment group than in the failed treatment group (2538.08 IU/L versus 3533.17 IU/L, P = 0.000). The treatment success rate of the group with an initial β-hCG concentration less than 4000 IU/L was significantly higher than that of the group with an initial β-hCG concentration greater than 4000 IU/L. However, the success rate of the group with an initial β-hCG concentration greater than 4000 IU/L was still relatively high (54.55%). β-hCG levels were significantly increased on the 4th day in the failed treatment group (P = 0.000). Compared to the initial β-hCG level, the day-4 β-hCG level increased by more than 8.21%, indicating that the treatment was effective. The diagnostic sensitivity was 88.6%, the specificity was 74.5%, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was 0.863 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.805-0.920).

CONCLUSIONS

MTX therapy as a treatment option is safe and effective for asymptomatic, hemodynamically stable patients with ectopic pregnancies who are interested in conservative treatment, regardless of the serum β-hCG level or adnexal mass size. The change in the β-hCG level between the initial day and the 4th day is an effective and early predictive tool for the success of MTX therapy for ectopic pregnancy.

Day 1 to day 4 serum hCG change in predicting single-dose methotrexate treatment failure for tubal ectopic pregnancies

OBJECTIVE

To determine if changes in Day 1 to Day 4 serum human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) levels can predict treatment failure of single-dose methotrexate (MTX) in medical management of tubal ectopic pregnancies (EP).

STUDY DESIGN

This retrospective cohort study was conducted at a tertiary level hospital. Files were reviewed for all women who received at least one dose of 50 mg/m² intramuscular MTX for treatment of ultrasound-confirmed tubal EPs between 2013 and 2018. "Treatment failure" is defined as needing additional MTX or surgery to manage the EP. The primary purpose is to establish a threshold percentage change in Day 1 to Day 4 (Day 1/4) hCG that best predicts treatment failure, with clinically and statistically significant sensitivity and specificity, based on receiver-operator characteristic (ROC) analysis.

RESULTS

252 files were reviewed, with 108 included for final analysis. 17% of cases required a second dose of MTX and 12% required surgery to manage the EP. Women in the treatment failure group had significantly higher median hCG levels on Day 1, 4 and 7, but were otherwise similar to women who were successful in age, parity, history of previous EP, and EP size. ROC curve analysis of Day 1/4 hCG demonstrates that ≥5% rise best predicts treatment failure with sensitivity 68% (95% confidence interval [CI] 49-83%), specificity 69% (95%CI 56-78%), and AUC 0.77 (95%CI 0.68-0.86, p < 0.001). The positive predictive value is 46% (95%CI 36-56%) and negative predictive value is 84% (95%CI 75-90%). In comparison, ROC analysis of Day 4 to Day 7 hCG demonstrates that a drop of ≤17% best predicted failure, with sensitivity 83% (95%CI 64-94%), specificity 82% (95%CI 71-90%), and AUC 0.90 (95%CI 0.84-0.96), p < 0.001.

CONCLUSION

This study suggests that ≥5% rise in Day 1/4 serum hCG levels could potentially predict treatment failure of single-dose MTX for tubal EPs, and that conversely, <5% rise or any drop in Day 1/4 hCG levels can reliably predict treatment success. Clinicians could consider factoring-in Day 1/4 hCG changes during the course of medically managing patients. They must bear in mind, however, that acting on the Day 1/4 hCG change would lead to increased interventions.

Early prediction of methotrexate treatment outcome in tubal ectopic pregnancy based on days 0 and 4 human chorionic gonadotropin levels

AIM

Methotrexate (MTX) is an efficient treatment for ectopic pregnancy, used according to 'single-dose' protocol. Treatment success is evaluated on days 4 and 7 after dose administration, and defined as a decline of ≥15% in beta-human chorionic gonadotropin (β-hCG) levels, with a positive predictive value of 93%. A decrease on day 4 β-hCG levels was determined to be a good predictor for treatment success. We retrospectively examined changes in β-hCG levels between days 0 and 4 after MTX treatment as an early predictor for treatment outcome.

METHODS

The 'success group' consisted of patients with resolved ectopic pregnancy after a single MTX dose and 'failure group' included patients who required additional MTX doses or underwent surgery after the first dose. For each group, demographic and pregnancy data were analyzed as well as initial (admission day), days 0, 4 and 7 β-hCG levels.

RESULTS

Of 159 women included in the study, MTX treatment was successful in 117 patients (73.6%) while 42 patients (26.4%) were defined as treatment failure. In the success group, most patients (58.9%) demonstrated a decrease in β-hCG values between days 0 and 4 as opposed to the failure group in which an increase in β-hCG values was observed (76.2%). Decrease of >18% in β-hCG levels was predictive of treatment success (positive predictive value 92%). Increase in β-hCG values is less predictive of treatment failure with positive predictive value of 54%.

CONCLUSION

Differences in β-hCG levels between days 0 and 4 may serve as an early predictor for treatment outcome.

Comparative study of low-dose versus standard single-dose methotrexate: A novel approach for medical treatment of ectopic pregnancy

AIM

Methotrexate (MTX) treatment at a dose of 50 mg/m² of body surface area (BSA) is an effective and widely used treatment method in ectopic pregnancy. However, there is a limited number of studies investigating lower MTX doses. In this study, we aimed to investigate the efficacy of lower MTX doses in the treatment of ectopic pregnancy.

METHODS

This retrospective study included a total of 112 patients who were hospitalized due to ectopic pregnancy and administered single-dose MTX. The patients were divided into three groups according to the dose given as 22-40 mg/m² of BSA (n = 17), 41-49 mg/m² of BSA (n = 81) and ≥ 50 mg/m² of BSA (n = 14). Data including demographic characteristics of the patients, previous history of ectopic pregnancy, previous gynecological surgeries, the use of in vitro fertilization techniques, ultrasonographic findings, beta-human chorionic gonadotropin hormone (β-hCG) levels, pre-treatment endometrial sampling, MTX doses applied, and the need for a surgical intervention during follow-up were retrieved from the hospital records.

RESULTS

Of the patients, 16.96% (n = 19) were operated at the end of treatment, irrespective of the pre-treatment β-hCG levels with a success rate of 83% (n = 93). Fourteen (12.5%) of the patients received the second dose of MTX. The overall success rate was 89.2% in patients with a β-hCG level of ≤5000 mIU/mL.

CONCLUSION

This study shows that lower MTX doses than 50 mg/m² , which has been considered standard treatment and widely used in the treatment of ectopic pregnancy for nearly three decades, are effective with similar success rates.

Early prediction of the success of methotrexate treatment success by 24-hour pretreatment increment in HCG and day 1-4 change in HCG

RESEARCH QUESTION

Several studies have tried to identify early markers of treatment outcome after methotrexate (MTX) treatment for ectopic pregnancy, including pretreatment and day 4 human chorionic gonadotrophin (HCG) concentrations and their corresponding changes, and the increment in HCG during the initial 24 h after treatment. There have, however, been conflicting results. This study aimed to re-evaluate the role of these markers in the earlier identification of treatment success in a large cohort of women.

DESIGN

This was a retrospective cohort study including women diagnosed with an ectopic pregnancy and treated with a regimen of a single dose of MTX. A comparison of maternal and gestation characteristics was made between groups in whom treatment was successful or failed.

RESULTS

A total of 292 women treated with single-dose intramuscular MTX for ectopic pregnancy were included in this study. In the overall cohort, the treatment success rate with a single dose of MTX was 62.7% (183/292). Only two independent determinants were significantly associated with treatment success: the initial 24-h percentage increase in HCG (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 1.82, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.26-2.63; P < 0.001) and the percentage change in HCG from day 1 to day 4 (adjusted OR 1.12, 95% CI 1.04-1.21; P < 0.001). The optimal cut-off points for prediction of treatment success were an increment of less than 17% in the 24 h before treatment and a decrease of more than 22% between the day 1 and day 4 HCG concentrations.

CONCLUSIONS

A small increase in HCG concentration 24 h before treatment with MTX, alongside a decline in HCG concentration from day 1 to day 4, may predict the success of medical treatment for an ectopic pregnancy.

Evaluation of Tubal Pregnancy After Treatment With Methotrexate by Ultrasound Elastography

OBJECTIVES

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the application of ultrasound elastography in the assessment of methotrexate (MTX) treatment for tubal pregnancy and the association with the elasticity score and human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) concentration.

METHODS

A total of 73 cases of unruptured tubal pregnancy were diagnosed and treated systemically with MTX. The sonographic characters of conventional transvaginal sonography and elastography and serum hCG concentrations before and after MTX therapy were retrospectively reviewed and analyzed.

RESULTS

The mean elasticity score was statistically significantly lower for the ectopic tubal masses of the success group (mean ± SD, 2.58 ± 0.68) than for the failure group (3.33 ± 0.47) on day 7 (P < .001) and similar on day 0. The median elasticity score for the success group on day 7 was 3, and for the failure group, it was 4. When elasticity scores of 3 and 2 were used for the criterion of successful MTX treatment, the elastography had 94.5% sensitivity, 61.1% specificity, 88.1% positive predictive value, and 78.6% negative predictive value. Elastography of the ectopic masses and subsequent hCG concentration at 1 week after the MTX injection in the success group had a strong relationship.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that transvaginal elastography was a useful tool in the evaluation of tubal pregnancy after pharmacologic management.

Trends in serum human chorionic gonadotropin levels 0-4 days after methotrexate administration for predicting tubal ectopic pregnancy treatment success

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate serum human chorionic gonadotropin (HCG) levels 0-4 days after single-dose methotrexate administration for tubal ectopic pregnancy.

METHODS

The present retrospective study included women with tubal ectopic pregnancy treated by methotrexate at a tertiary hospital in Hong Kong, China, between January 1, 2007, and December 31, 2016. Patients were stratified serum HCG levels rose or fell from day 0-4 post-administration. Trends in day 0-4 serum HCG to predict treatment success were compared with that of day 4-7 serum HCG. The optimal drop in HCG was identified by receiver operating characteristic curve analysis.

RESULTS

There were 102 patients included. The positive predictive value (PPV) of day 0-4 serum HCG for treatment success was 91% (95% confidence interval [CI] 82-96), which is comparable to the current criterion of a 15% drop in day 4-7 serum HCG (PPV 91%, 95% CI 84-95). A 6% drop in day 0-4 serum HCG was the best predictor of treatment success (PPV 96%, 95% CI 86-99).

CONCLUSION

A drop in day 0-4 serum HCG provided earlier prognostic information and was not inferior to the current criterion.

Predictors of failure of the commonly used single-dose methotrexate protocol for treating tubal ectopic pregnancies

OBJECTIVES

This study identified patients who would benefit from an earlier additional medical intervention and/or continuing close surveillance even if commonly used parameters indicated sufficient medical treatment to determine markers of treatment failure.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A retrospective analysis of patients with a preliminary diagnosis of ectopic pregnancy treated with the single-dose methotrexate protocol. Group 1: cases cured with a single dose of methotrexate; Group 2: cases who required more than one dose of methotrexate or surgery following the first dose. Demographics, clinical/sonographic findings, observation period, and β-human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) levels were compared among the two groups. Thresholds were defined and a regression analysis was performed to define independent predictors of failure.

RESULTS

Data from 120 patients were analyzed: Group 1 (n = 92); Group 2 (n = 28). β-hCG levels measured at all time points, and day (0-4) and day (4-7) changes, presence of adnexial masses, and infertility were significantly different among the two groups. Only the day (0-4) and day (4-7) changes in β-hCG levels were independent predictors of failure.

CONCLUSION

Day (0-4) thresholds or newly defined day (4-7) thresholds were not more sensitive than the conventional day (4-7) criteria. Day (0-4) β-hCG levels increased by more than 9.7% in half the patients who required additional methotrexate doses or surgery despite fulfillment of the conventional day (4-7) criteria. In contrast, no cases of treatment failure were observed if the day (0-4) decrease was >26.6%.

Comparison of alternative βhCG follow-up protocols after single-dose methotrexate therapy for tubal ectopic pregnancy

PURPOSE

To evaluate the performances of five different βhCG follow-up protocols after single-dose methotrexate therapy for tubal ectopic pregnancy (EP).

METHODS

Data of patients who received single-dose methotrexate therapy for tubal EP at a university hospital between January 2011 and July 2016 were reviewed. A 'successful methotrexate treatment' was defined if the EP treated with no need for surgery. The performances of different protocols were tested by comparing with the currently used '15% βhCG decrease between days 4 and 7' protocol. The tested follow-up protocols were '20, 25%, and any βhCG decrease between days 0/1 and 7' and '20% and any βhCG decrease between days 0/1 and 4'.

RESULTS

Among the 96 patients evaluated, 12 (12.5%) required second dose. Totally, 91 (94.8%) patients treated successfully with no need for surgery. Four patients were operated within 4 days following the second dose. One patient who did not need second dose according to the standard follow-up protocol was operated on the 10th day due to rupture (specificity = 80%). Two protocols, namely '20% βhCG decrease between days 0/1 and 7' and 'any βhCG decrease between days 0/1 and 7' did not show statistically significant differences from the index protocol regarding the number of patients who should be assigned to 2nd dose.

CONCLUSIONS

'Any βhCG decrease between days 0/1 and 7' protocol may substitute the currently used one to decide second dose methotrexate in tubal EP management. Omitting 4th day measurement seems to be more convenient and cost effective.

Routine β-Human Chorionic Gonadotropin Monitoring for Single-Dose Methotrexate Treatment in Ectopic Pregnancy

STUDY OBJECTIVE

To evaluate an alternative monitoring protocol without day 4 β-human chorionic gonadotropin (β-hCG) measurement for predicting the need for a repeated methotrexate (MTX) dose in patients undergoing single-dose MTX therapy for ectopic pregnancy (EP).

DESIGN

Single-center retrospective study (Canadian Task Force classification II-3).

SETTING

University-affiliated hospital.

PATIENTS

Included in the study were 184 EP patients treated with MTX between January 2009 and December 2016.

INTERVENTIONS

Single-dose MTX treatment (50 mg/m²).

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

The patients were treated with repeated doses of MTX every 7 days, if necessary, according to Stovall's protocol, or with laparoscopic surgery in cases of tubal rupture. The success of a single-dose of MTX according to the alternative measure was defined as a >50% decrease in the β-hCG level between days 1 and 7 in clinically stable patients. The sensitivity, specificity, false-negative rate, false-positive rate, and attributable risk of this new monitoring measure were calculated and compared with the traditional regimen. The new protocol had a sensitivity and specificity of 100% and 88.7%, respectively, for predicting a required second dose in patients whose day 1 β-hCG levels were <2000 mIU/mL. For patients with day 1 β-hCG level ≥2000 mIU/mL, both monitoring regimens had the same efficiency.

CONCLUSIONS

The new monitoring model without the day 4 β-hCG measurement may offer both patients and clinicians multiple options to monitor single-dose MTX therapy for selected EP patients, with a comparable clinical efficiency to Stovall's protocol and less expense and follow-up burden to patients.

Single-dose methotrexate for the treatment of ectopic pregnancy: Our experience from 2010 to 2015

Objective:

To evaluate the success of systemic single-dose methotrexate (MTX) treatment in patients with ectopic pregnancy (EP) and to investigate factors related to treatment success.

Methods:

This retrospective study had been performed in Yildirim Beyazit University between January 2010 and December 2015. Demographic and clinical characteristics, ultrasonografic findings, pretreatment serum β–human chorionic gonadotropin (β-hCG) and progesterone levels of 58 patients with EP were retrieved from hospital records retrospectively. The patients were grouped according to MTX treatment success (response vs. failure).

Results:

Single-dose MTX-treatment was successful in 72.4% (42/58) of patients. The mean pretreatment β-hCG level was significantly lower in responders than in failures (2080 ± 2322 vs. 5707 ± 3885 IU/L, p = 0.001), and 2678 IU/L was the most suitable cutoff to predict success (75% sensitivity, 73.8% specificity). Moreover, failure rate was 8.45 times more in group of patients whose β-hCG values were determined above the cutoff. The presence of fetal cardiac activity adversely affected treatment success (odds ratio = 12, p = 0.004). Treatment success was not affected by past history of ectopic pregnancy, thickness of endometrium, progesterone value or presences of pseudosac and free pelvic fluid.

Conclusion:

The success rate of single dose MTX in this study was 72.8 %, and we found that failure rate of MTX treatment was 8.45 times more in group of patients whose initial serum β-hCG values were above 2678 IU/L and 12 times more in patients with fetal cardiac activity

Methotrexate-treated ectopic pregnancy: beta human chorionic gonadotropin serum changes as a success predictor using a mathematical model validation

BACKGROUND

Surgical rescue of methotrexate-treated ectopic pregnancy is necessary when tubal rupture or medical therapy failure is detected during post-therapeutic monitoring. It is known that an increased beta human chorionic gonadotropin (β-hCG) concentration is the most important factor associated with treatment failure. Therefore, we suggested that relative changes in serum β-hCG could predict a successful result of medical treatment, leading to facilitation of the decision to forgo the prospect of possible surgical rescue.

METHODS

A retrospective observational study of 115 patients with an ectopic pregnancy who were treated with a single dosage protocol of 50mg/m² of methotrexate injected intramuscularly was performed at Puerta de Hierro University Hospital and Gregorio Marañón University General Hospital. Standard statistical tests were applied in order to evaluate the relative changes in β-hCG concentration between the 1st and the 4th days following methotrexate injection.

RESULTS

Methotrexate treatment has a 95% probability to be successful if the relative change of β-hCG from the 1st to the 4th day of monitoring is within the following interval: [-1.02; 0.15]. Moreover, if the values of β-hCG-relative change from 1st to 4th day of monitoring are within [0.54; 1.2], it assures a negative result of treatment with 95% probability. Therefore, the value 0.15 (15%) of β-hCG relative change can be considered a cut-off value for a positive result to treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

Our data support that negative β-hCG relative changes on the 4th day of treatment likely predict a successful result of methotrexate therapy, with a cut-off point of 0.15. Expectant management should be carried out in these cases if no clinical indications of surgery are presented.

Single-dose methotrexate treatment for ectopic pregnancy and pregnancy of unknown location and progesterone as a predictor of success

BACKGROUND

The use of single-dose intramuscular administration of methotrexate in the treatment of ectopic pregnancies (EP) is a well-established practice. This study evaluates its use at a novel dose of 40 mg/m(2) body surface area (BSA).

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the efficacy and safety of single-dose methotrexate treatment 40 mg/m(2) for tubal EP and persistent pregnancies of unknown location (PUL) and determine whether serum progesterone is a predictor of treatment success.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Retrospective cohort study of patients receiving intramuscular methotrexate 40 mg/m(2) for the treatment of EP or PUL at Royal Prince Alfred Hospital over five years.

RESULTS

One hundred and eighteen women received single-dose methotrexate with an overall success of 84%. Surgical intervention was needed in 16.6%. Pretreatment beta-hCG level and ectopic diagnosis were independent variables predictive of the need for surgery (P = 0.003 and 0.02, respectively). Serum progesterone level was not predictive of the need for a second dose or surgery. The sensitivity and specificity at pretreatment beta-hCG of 1202 IU/L were 84% and 74%, respectively. Commonly reported side effects included nausea, abdominal pain and heavy vaginal bleeding. Significant treatment-related adverse effects were rare.

CONCLUSION

Single-dose IM methotrexate at a novel dose of 40 mg/m(2) is a safe and effective treatment for selected EP and persistent PUL. The risk of surgery was positively correlated to serum beta-hCG level and the diagnosis of EP. Progesterone was not a risk factor for surgery. Further studies are required to confirm the efficacy of this dose regimen and explore the safety of expectant management as an alternative to methotrexate treatment.

Predictors of success of medical management of ectopic pregnancy in a tertiary care hospital in United arab emirates

INTRODUCTION

Ectopic pregnancy is the most common cause of pregnancy related deaths in the first trimester of pregnancy. Advances in laboratory and imaging technologies in last few decades allow an early diagnosis of ectopic pregnancy, many times even before the patient develops any symptoms. Consequently in many such patients surgery is not always necessary. Expectant and medical management are feasible options in properly selected cases. In the present study, efficacy of medical management of selected cases of ectopic pregnancy with injection methotrexate and the factors influencing the success of medical management were evaluated.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Retrospective study involving 40 women with ectopic pregnancy who met inclusion criteria and were managed medically with Methotrexate (MTX) in a tertiary hospital in United Arab Emirates (UAE). Various factors which could possibly influence the success of medical management were evaluated.

RESULTS

ROC analyses for day 1(pretreatment) Beta HCG levels revealed that the optimum cut off for Beta HCG level of 6000 mIU/ml on day 1 can be considered a good predictor of success of medical management with MTX. Falling serum Beta HCG between day 1-4 very well predicted success of MTX therapy (irrespective of number of doses of MTX) with a positive predictive value (PPV) of 100% and negative predictive value (NPV) of 31.25%. Similarly adnexal mass size ≤ 3 cms and duration of amenorrhoea < 6 weeks were found to be good predictors of success of medical management (PPV 96.66% and NPV 90% for both factors).In the present study, irrespective of number of doses received, medical management with MTX was successful in 75% cases (30 out of 40).

CONCLUSION

RESULTS of this study indicate that pretreatment Beta HCG level of < 6000 mIU/ml, adnexal mass size < 3 cms, amenorrhoea < 6 weeks and absence of free fluid in the pelvis are predictors of a successful treatment with MTX. In properly selected cases medical management of ectopic pregnancy with MTX is highly effective and can be considered a forward step taken towards conservation of fallopian tubes especially in countries like UAE where there is inclination towards large family size based on religious and cultural background.

Predictive value of hemoperitoneum for outcome of methotrexate treatment in ectopic pregnancy: an observational comparative study

OBJECTIVE

To assess the predictive value of hemoperitoneum for the outcome of methotrexate (MTX) treatment of ectopic pregnancy (EP).

METHODS

This observational prospective single-center study included women presenting with EP treated with MTX from November 2007 to November 2009. The percentage of women with hemoperitoneum at the beginning of MTX treatment was compared between two groups: those whose treatment was successful and those whose treatment failed. The rate of hemoperitoneum in each group and its value in predicting the outcome of MTX treatment of EP were assessed.

RESULTS

MTX treatment was successful in 69 of 93 (74%) cases. The percentage of women with hemoperitoneum at the beginning of treatment was significantly higher in women in whom MTX treatment failed as compared to those in whom it was successful (15/24 (62.5%) vs 17/69 (24.6%); P = 0.001). The likelihood of requiring surgery following treatment with MTX was higher in women with hemoperitoneum (odds ratio, 5.1; 95% CI, 1.74-15.14). Study of the diagnostic performance of hemoperitoneum in predicting the need for surgical treatment after MTX treatment revealed a sensitivity of 0.63, a specificity of 0.76, a positive predictive value of 0.47 and a negative predictive value of 0.85.

CONCLUSIONS

The presence of hemoperitoneum appears to be a risk factor for MTX treatment failure. It is important to inform women as fully as possible about the risk of such failure. Nonetheless, the predictive value of this sign is insufficient for either routinely excluding women with hemoperitoneum from MTX treatment or omitting post-treatment monitoring.

Efficacy of methotrexate therapy in patients with tubal pregnancy and a serum human chorionic gonadotropin level above 10,000 IU/L

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the failure rate of medical treatment and to identify variables associated with treatment failure in patients with tubal pregnancy and an initial serum level of human chorionic gonadotropin (HCG) over 10,000 IU/L.

METHODS

The inclusion criteria were tubal pregnancy diagnosed using ultrasonography, primary treatment of intramuscular methotrexate injection at one of the four institutions between January 2003 and December 2011, a serum HCG level within two days before treatment>10,000 IU/L, and follow-up data to determine treatment success or failure. Exclusion criteria were other primary treatments besides intramuscular methotrexate injection. The clinicopathologic data of 36 patients were collected and analyzed.

RESULTS

Medical treatment failed and surgery was performed in 19 (53%) patients. In univariable analysis, age, parity, and size of the gestational sac were associated with treatment failure, but none of the variables were associated with treatment failure in multivariable analysis. The failure rate in the subgroup with age<33 years and size of gestational sac≥1.1 cm was significantly higher than those of the other subgroups (82% vs. 41% [mean of the other subgroups], respectively).

CONCLUSION

Patients with a serum HCG level>10,000 IU/L who received medical treatment had a high failure rate. Among them, patients aged<33 years and with a gestational sac≥1.1 cm had an extremely high failure rate.

Assessment of early decline in the percentage of β-hCG values between days 0 and 4 after methotrexate therapy in ectopic pregnancy for the prediction of treatment success

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate percentage changes in serum beta-human chorionic gonadotropin (β-hCG) values between days 0-1, 0-4 and 0-7 as an indicator of methotrexate therapy success in extra-uterine pregnancies.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Women with ectopic pregnancy treated with single-dose methotrexate therapy between January 2011 and August 2012 were assessed. Recorded data were reviewed electronically from patient files. All women (n=93) with an ectopic pregnancy treated medically with intramuscular methotrexate (50 mg/m(2)) were included. The percentage changes in serum β-hCG levels from day 0 to 1, day 0 to 4 and day 0 to 7 were calculated for each case.

RESULTS

The median β-hCG values decreased between days 0 and 4 by 55.8%, and 89.6% of these cases were treatment successes. The median initial serum β-hCG values were lower in women with successful treatment, but this was not statistically significant (p=0.11).

CONCLUSION

A decline in serum β-hCG values between days 0 and 4 appears to be the best predictor. It would be beneficial to determine whether a woman with an ectopic pregnancy treated with single-dose methotrexate administration will be treated successfully.

Role of initial and day 4 human chorionic gonadotropin levels in predicting the outcome of single-dose methotrexate treatment in women with tubal ectopic pregnancy

PURPOSE

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the initial and day 4 beta-human chorionic gonadotropin (β-hCG) levels as a predictor of methotrexate (MTX) therapy success for ectopic pregnancy.

METHODS

Retrospective study of 87 patients with tubal ectopic pregnancy treated with a single dose of 50 mg/m(2) MTX at Bursa Şevket Yılmaz Research and Education Hospital between January 2011 and July 2012 was performed.

RESULTS

The overall success rate is measured as 72.4 %. The two groups of patients, successfully treated patients (n = 63) and unsuccessfully treated patients (n = 24), were compared. The mean initial β-hCG level was significantly lower in the treatment success group than in the treatment failure group (1,417 mIU/mL versus 5,995 mIU/mL, p < 0.001). The number of cases with decreasing β-hCG level on day 4 was significantly more in the success group compared to the failure group (61.9 and 37.5 %, respectively, p = 0.04). The success rate was 90 % when β-hCG levels were <1,000 mIU/mL, 85.7 % when the levels were between 1,000 and 1,999 mIU/mL, and 76.5 % when the levels were between 2,000 and 2,999 mIU/mL, 54.5 % when the levels were between 3,000 and 3,999 mIU/mL.

CONCLUSION

Single-dose MTX therapy is a safe and effective treatment modality for tubal ectopic pregnancies with the β-hCG serum concentration below 3,000 mIU/mL, and β-hCG level changes between days 0 and 4 after MTX therapy are important in predicting the outcome of treatment.

Using a decline in serum hCG between days 0-4 to predict ectopic pregnancy treatment success after single-dose methotrexate: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

The current measure of treatment efficacy of single-dose methotrexate for ectopic pregnancy, is a fall in serum hCG of ≥15% between days 4-7 of treatment, which has a positive predictive value of 93% for treatment success. Two small studies have proposed a fall in serum hCG between days 0-4 after treatment confers similar, earlier prognostic information, with positive predictive values of 100% and 88% for treatment success. We sought to validate this in a large, independent cohort because of the potentially significant clinical implications.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective study of women (n=206) treated with single-dose methotrexate for ectopic pregnancy (pre-treatment serum hCG levels ≤3000 IU/L) at Scottish hospitals between 2006-2011. Women were divided into two cohorts based on whether their serum hCG levels rose or fell between days 0-4 after methotrexate. Treatment outcomes of women in each cohort were compared, and the test performance characteristics calculated. This methodology was repeated for the current measure (≥15% fall in serum hCG between days 4-7 of treatment) and an alternate early measure (<20% fall in serum hCG between days 0-4 of treatment), and all three measures were compared for their ability to predict medical treatment success.

RESULTS

In our cohort, the positive predictive value of the current clinical measure was 89% (95% CI 84-94%) (121/136). A falling serum hCG between days 0-4 predicted treatment success in 85% (95% CI 79-92%) of cases (94/110) and a <20% fall in serum hCG between days 0-4 predicted treatment success in 94% (95% CI 88-100%) of cases (59/63). There was no significant difference in the ability of these tests to predict medical treatment success.

CONCLUSIONS

We have verified that a decline in serum hCG between days 0-4 after methotrexate treatment for ectopic pregnancies, with pre-treatment serum hCG levels ≤3000 IU/L, provides an early indication of likelihood of treatment success, and performs just as well as the existing measure, which only provides prognostic information on day 7.