Development and validation of a multivariable prediction model of spontaneous preterm delivery and microbial invasion of the amniotic cavity in women with preterm labor

Intra-amniotic infection and/or inflammation is associated with fetal cardiac concentric hypertrophy and diastolic dysfunction in preterm labor and preterm prelabor rupture of membranes

BACKGROUND

Preterm delivery is associated with cardiovascular remodeling and dysfunction in children and adults. However, it is unknown whether these effects are caused by the neonatal consequences of preterm birth or if these are already present in utero.

OBJECTIVE

We evaluated fetal cardiac morphology and function in fetuses of mothers admitted for preterm labor or preterm prelabor rupture of membranes and the association of these changes with the presence of intra-amniotic infection and/or inflammation.

STUDY DESIGN

In this prospective cohort study, fetal echocardiography and amniocentesis were performed at admission in singleton pregnant women with preterm labor and/or preterm prelabor rupture of membranes between 24.0 and 34.0 weeks' gestation with (intra-amniotic infection and/or inflammation group, n=41) and without intra-amniotic infection and/or inflammation (non-intra-amniotic infection and/or inflammation, n=54). Controls (n=48) were outpatient pregnant women without preterm labor or preterm prelabor rupture of membranes. Intra-amniotic infection was defined by a positive amniotic fluid culture or positive 16S ribosomal RNA gene. Intra-amniotic inflammation was defined by using the amniotic fluid interleukin-6 cutoff levels previously reported by our group being >1.43 ng/mL in preterm prelabor rupture of membranes and >13.4 ng/mL in preterm labor. Fetal cardiac morphology and function was evaluated using echocardiography, and troponin-I and N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide concentrations were measured in amniotic fluid from women with preterm labor or preterm prelabor rupture of membranes and compared with 20 amniotic fluid Biobank samples obtained for reasons other than preterm labor or preterm prelabor rupture of membranes or cardiac pathology. The data were adjusted for the estimated fetal weight below the 10th percentile and for preterm prelabor rupture of membranes at admission and also for gestational age at amniocentesis when amniotic fluid biomarkers were compared.

RESULTS

From 2018 to 2021, 143 fetuses were included; 95 fetuses were from mothers admitted with a diagnosis of preterm labor or preterm prelabor rupture of membranes, and among those, 41 (28.7%) were in the intra-amniotic infection and/or inflammation group and 54 (37.8%) were in the non-intra-amniotic infection and/or inflammation group. A total of 48 (33.6%) fetuses were included in the control group. Fetuses with preterm labor and/or preterm prelabor rupture of membranes had signs of subclinical cardiac concentric hypertrophy (median left wall thickness of 0.93 [interquartile range, 0.72-1.16] in the intra-amniotic infection and/or inflammation group; 0.79 [0.66-0.92] in the non-intra-amniotic infection and/or inflammation group; and 0.69 [0.56-0.83] in controls; P<.001) and diastolic dysfunction (tricuspid A duration 0.23 seconds [0.21-0.25], 0.24 [0.22-0.25], and 0.21 [0.2-0.23]; P=.007). Systolic function was similar among groups. Higher values of amniotic fluid troponin I (1413 pg/mL [927-2334], 1190 [829-1636], and 841 [671-959]; P<.001) and N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide were detected (35.0%, 17%, and 0%; P=.005) in fetuses with preterm labor or preterm prelabor rupture of membranes when compared with the control group. The highest N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide concentrations were found in the intra-amniotic infection and/or inflammation group.

CONCLUSION

Fetuses with preterm labor or preterm prelabor rupture of membranes showed signs of cardiac remodeling and subclinical dysfunction, which were more pronounced in those exposed to intra-amniotic infection and/or inflammation. These findings support that the cardiovascular effects observed in children and adults born preterm have, at least in part, a prenatal origin.

Evidence of brain injury in fetuses of mothers with preterm labor with intact membranes and preterm premature rupture of membranes

BACKGROUND

Brain injury and poor neurodevelopment have been consistently reported in infants and adults born before term. These changes occur, at least in part, prenatally and are associated with intra-amniotic inflammation. The pattern of brain changes has been partially documented by magnetic resonance imaging but not by neurosonography along with amniotic fluid brain injury biomarkers.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to evaluate the prenatal features of brain remodeling and injury in fetuses from patients with preterm labor with intact membranes or preterm premature rupture of membranes and to investigate the potential influence of intra-amniotic inflammation as a risk mediator.

STUDY DESIGN

In this prospective cohort study, fetal brain remodeling and injury were evaluated using neurosonography and amniocentesis in singleton pregnant patients with preterm labor with intact membranes or preterm premature rupture of membranes between 24.0 and 34.0 weeks of gestation, with (n=41) and without (n=54) intra-amniotic inflammation. The controls for neurosonography were outpatient pregnant patients without preterm labor or preterm premature rupture of membranes matched 2:1 by gestational age at ultrasound. Amniotic fluid controls were patients with an amniocentesis performed for indications other than preterm labor or preterm premature rupture of membranes without brain or genetic defects whose amniotic fluid was collected in our biobank for research purposes matched by gestational age at amniocentesis. The group with intra-amniotic inflammation included those with intra-amniotic infection (microbial invasion of the amniotic cavity and intra-amniotic inflammation) and those with sterile inflammation. Microbial invasion of the amniotic cavity was defined as a positive amniotic fluid culture and/or positive 16S ribosomal RNA gene. Inflammation was defined by amniotic fluid interleukin 6 concentrations of >13.4 ng/mL in preterm labor and >1.43 ng/mL in preterm premature rupture of membranes. Neurosonography included the evaluation of brain structure biometric parameters and cortical development. Neuron-specific enolase, protein S100B, and glial fibrillary acidic protein were selected as amniotic fluid brain injury biomarkers. Data were adjusted for cephalic biometrics, fetal growth percentile, fetal sex, noncephalic presentation, and preterm premature rupture of membranes at admission.

RESULTS

Fetuses from mothers with preterm labor with intact membranes or preterm premature rupture of membranes showed signs of brain remodeling and injury. First, they had a smaller cerebellum. Thus, in the intra-amniotic inflammation, non-intra-amniotic inflammation, and control groups, the transcerebellar diameter measurements were 32.7 mm (interquartile range, 29.8-37.6), 35.3 mm (interquartile range, 31.2-39.6), and 35.0 mm (interquartile range, 31.3-38.3), respectively (P=.019), and the vermian height measurements were 16.9 mm (interquartile range, 15.5-19.6), 17.2 mm (interquartile range, 16.0-18.9), and 17.1 mm (interquartile range, 15.7-19.0), respectively (P=.041). Second, they presented a lower corpus callosum area (0.72 mm2 [interquartile range, 0.59-0.81], 0.71 mm2 [interquartile range, 0.63-0.82], and 0.78 mm2 [interquartile range, 0.71-0.91], respectively; P=.006). Third, they showed delayed cortical maturation (the Sylvian fissure depth-to-biparietal diameter ratios were 0.14 [interquartile range, 0.12-0.16], 0.14 [interquartile range, 0.13-0.16], and 0.16 [interquartile range, 0.15-0.17], respectively [P<.001], and the right parieto-occipital sulci depth ratios were 0.09 [interquartile range, 0.07-0.12], 0.11 [interquartile range, 0.09-0.14], and 0.11 [interquartile range, 0.09-0.14], respectively [P=.012]). Finally, regarding amniotic fluid brain injury biomarkers, fetuses from mothers with preterm labor with intact membranes or preterm premature rupture of membranes had higher concentrations of neuron-specific enolase (11,804.6 pg/mL [interquartile range, 6213.4-21,098.8], 8397.7 pg/mL [interquartile range, 3682.1-17,398.3], and 2393.7 pg/mL [interquartile range, 1717.1-3209.3], respectively; P<.001), protein S100B (2030.6 pg/mL [interquartile range, 993.0-4883.5], 1070.3 pg/mL [interquartile range, 365.1-1463.2], and 74.8 pg/mL [interquartile range, 44.7-93.7], respectively; P<.001), and glial fibrillary acidic protein (1.01 ng/mL [interquartile range, 0.54-3.88], 0.965 ng/mL [interquartile range, 0.59-2.07], and 0.24 mg/mL [interquartile range, 0.20-0.28], respectively; P=.002).

CONCLUSION

Fetuses with preterm labor with intact membranes or preterm premature rupture of membranes had prenatal signs of brain remodeling and injury at the time of clinical presentation. These changes were more pronounced in fetuses with intra-amniotic inflammation.

Development and validation of a risk prediction model for preterm birth in women with gestational diabetes mellitus

OBJECTIVES

This study aims to develop and validate a prediction model for preterm birth in women with gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM).

DESIGN

We conducted a retrospective study on women with GDM who gave birth at the Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China, between November 2017 and July 2021. We divided 1879 patients into a development set (n = 1346) and a validation set (n = 533). The development set was used to construct the prediction model for preterm birth using the stepwise logistic regression model. A nomogram and a web calculator were established based on the model. Discrimination and calibration were assessed in both sets.

PATIENTS AND MEASUREMENTS

Patients were women with GDM. Data were collected from medical records. GDM was diagnosed with 75-g oral glucose tolerance test during 24-28 gestational weeks. Preterm birth was definied as gestational age at birth <37 weeks.

RESULTS

The incidence of preterm birth was 9.4%. The predictive model included age, assisted reproductive technology, hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, reproductive system inflammation, intrahepatic cholestasis of pregnancy, high-density lipoprotein, homocysteine, and fasting blood glucose of 75-g oral glucose tolerance test. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the development and validation sets was 0.722 and 0.632, respectively. The model has been adequately calibrated using a calibration curve and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test, demonstrating a correlation between the predicted and observed risk.

CONCLUSION

This study presents a novel, validated risk model for preterm birth in pregnant women with GDM, providing an individualized risk estimation using clinical risk factors in the third trimester of pregnancy.

Potential of plasma inflammatory and angiogenic mediators for predicting spontaneous preterm delivery, intraamniotic infection/inflammation, and composite neonatal morbidity/mortality in women with early preterm premature rupture of membranes

PROBLEM

To assess the potential of five inflammatory and six angiogenic/antiangiogenic plasma proteins for predicting imminent spontaneous preterm delivery (SPTD; ≤14 days of sampling), microbial invasion of the amniotic cavity and/or intraamniotic inflammation (MIAC/IAI), and composite neonatal morbidity and mortality (CNMM) in women with early preterm premature rupture of membranes (PPROM).

METHODS OF STUDY

This retrospective cohort study included 76 singleton pregnant women with early PPROM (23-30 weeks). Amniotic fluid obtained via amniocentesis was cultured for microorganism detection and assayed for interleukin-6 to define IAI (≥2.6 ng/mL). Plasma C4a, endoglin, endostatin, IGFBP-1, IGFBP-2, MMP-9, PlGF, S100A8, S100A9, S100 A8/A9, and VEGFR-1 levels were determined using ELISA.

RESULTS

Multivariate logistic regression analyses revealed significant associations between (i) high levels of plasma S100A8/A9, SPTD ≤14 days after sampling, and shorter sampling-to-delivery intervals; (ii) elevated plasma MMP-9, S100A9, and S100A8/A9 levels and MIAC/IAI, and (iii) decreased plasma endoglin levels and increased CNMM risk, while adjusting for gestational age at sampling (or delivery) and tocolytic use. The area under the curves of the aforementioned proteins ranged from 0.655 to 0.731 for each outcome. Notably, the SPTD risk increased significantly with increasing plasma S100A8/A9 levels (P for trend < .05).

CONCLUSIONS

Plasma S100A8/A9, MMP-9, S100A9, and endoglin may represent valuable biomarkers associated with SPTD, MIAC/IAI, and CNMM in women with early PPROM. Owing to their less invasive nature, repeatability, and fair-to-moderate diagnostic accuracy, these biomarkers may contribute to risk stratification of PPROM-related complications in the clinical setting.

Administration of Antenatal Corticosteroids: Optimal Timing

The effectiveness of antenatal corticosteroids (ACS) in significantly reducing respiratory distress syndrome (RDS) depends crucially on the timing. It is successful if delivery takes place between 24 hours and seven days following administration; after this period, the side effects seem to predominate. In addition, an increased rate of mental impairment and behavioral disorders are observed in children born full-term after ACS administration. The optimal timing of ACS administration depends crucially on the given indication; to date, it has been achieved in only 25-40% of cases. ACS administration is always indicated in PPROM, in severe early pre-eclampsia, in fetal IUGR with zero or reverse flow in the umbilical artery, in placenta previa with bleeding, and in patients experiencing premature labor with a cervical length < 15 mm. The risk of women with asymptomatic cervical insufficiency giving birth within seven days is very low. In this case, ACS should not be administered even if the patient's cervical length is less than 15 mm, provided that the cervix is closed and there are no other risk factors for a premature birth. The development of further diagnostic methods with improved power to predict premature birth is urgently needed in order to optimize the timing of ACS administration in this patient population. Caution when administering ACS is also indicated in women experiencing premature labor who have a cervical length ≥ 15 mm. Further studies using amniocentesis are needed in order to identify the patient population with microbial invasion of the amniotic cavity/intra-amniotic infection (MIAC/IAI), and to define threshold values at which delivery is indicated. ACS administration is not performed as an emergency measure, usually not even before transfer to a perinatal center. Therefore, whenever possible, the indication for ACS administration should be determined by a clinician who is highly experienced in perinatology.

Development and validation of a prediction model on spontaneous preterm birth in twin pregnancy: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

This study was conducted to develop and validate an individualized prediction model for spontaneous preterm birth (sPTB) in twin pregnancies.

METHODS

This a retrospective cohort study included 3845 patients who gave birth at the Chongqing Maternal and Child Health Hospital from January 2017 to December 2022. Both univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to find factors associated with sPTB. The associations were estimated using the odds ratio (OR) and the 95% confidence interval (CI). Model performance was estimated using sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and decision curve analysis (DCA).

RESULTS

A total of 1313 and 564 cases were included in the training and testing sets, respectively. In the training set, univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis indicated that age ≥ 35 years (OR, 2.28; 95% CI 1.67-3.13), pre-pregnancy underweight (OR, 2.36; 95% CI 1.60-3.47), pre-pregnancy overweight (OR, 1.67; 95% CI 1.09-2.56), and obesity (OR, 10.45; 95% CI, 3.91-27.87), nulliparity (OR, 0.58; 95% CI 0.41-0.82), pre-pregnancy diabetes (OR, 5.81; 95% CI 3.24-10.39), pre-pregnancy hypertension (OR, 2.79; 95% CI 1.44-5.41), and cervical incompetence (OR, 5.12; 95% CI 3.08-8.48) are independent risk factors for sPTB in twin pregnancies. The AUC of the training and validation set was 0.71 (95% CI 0.68-0.74) and 0.68 (95% CI 0.64-0.73), respectively. And then we integrated those risk factors to construct the nomogram.

CONCLUSIONS

The nomogram developed for predicting the risk of sPTB in pregnant women with twins demonstrated good performance. The prediction nomogram serves as a practical tool by including all necessary predictors that are readily accessible to practitioners.

EG-VEGF maternal levels predict spontaneous preterm birth in the second and third trimesters in pregnant women with risk factors for placenta-mediated complications

Prediction of spontaneous preterm birth in asymptomatic women remains a great challenge for the public health system. The aim of the study was to determine the informational value of EG-VEGF circulating levels for prediction of spontaneous preterm birth in the second and third trimesters in pregnant women at high risk for placenta-mediated complications. A prospective multicenter cohort study including 200 pregnant patients with five-serum sampling per patient. Women with spontaneous preterm birth have higher concentrations of serum EG-VEGF than uncomplicated patients at 24 weeks, 28 weeks and 32 weeks (p = 0.03, 0.02 and < 0.001). The areas under the curve reached 0.9 with 100% sensitivity at 32 weeks for the prediction of spontaneous preterm birth. Serum EG-VEGF concentrations could be considered as a reliable biomarker of spontaneous preterm birth in high-risk for placenta-mediated complications pregnant women.

Development and validation of a prognosis risk score model for preterm birth among pregnant women who had antenatal care visit, Northwest, Ethiopia, retrospective follow-up study

BACKGROUND

Prematurity is the leading cause of neonatal morbidity and mortality, specifically in low-resource settings. The majority of prematurity can be prevented if early interventions are implemented for high-risk pregnancies. Developing a prognosis risk score for preterm birth based on easily available predictors could support health professionals as a simple clinical tool in their decision-making. Therefore, the study aims to develop and validate a prognosis risk score model for preterm birth among pregnant women who had antenatal care visit at Debre Markos Comprehensive and Specialized Hospital, Ethiopia.

METHODS

A retrospective follow-up study was conducted among a total of 1,132 pregnant women. Client charts were selected using a simple random sampling technique. Data were extracted using structured checklist prepared in the Kobo Toolbox application and exported to STATA version 14 and R version 4.2.2 for data management and analysis. Stepwise backward multivariable analysis was done. A simplified risk prediction model was developed based on a binary logistic model, and the model's performance was assessed by discrimination power and calibration. The internal validity of the model was evaluated by bootstrapping. Decision Curve Analysis was used to determine the clinical impact of the model.

RESULT

The incidence of preterm birth was 10.9%. The developed risk score model comprised of six predictors that remained in the reduced multivariable logistic regression, including age < 20, late initiation of antenatal care, unplanned pregnancy, recent pregnancy complications, hemoglobin < 11 mg/dl, and multiparty, for a total score of 17. The discriminatory power of the model was 0.931, and the calibration test was p > 0.05. The optimal cut-off for classifying risks as low or high was 4. At this cut point, the sensitivity, specificity and accuracy is 91.0%, 82.1%, and 83.1%, respectively. It was internally validated and has an optimism of 0.003. The model was found to have clinical benefit.

CONCLUSION

The developed risk-score has excellent discrimination performance and clinical benefit. It can be used in the clinical settings by healthcare providers for early detection, timely decision making, and improving care quality.

Addition of cervical elastosonography to cervical length to predict preterm birth in pregnancy women with prior preterm birth: A preliminary prospective study

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the characteristics of cervical elastosonography in pregnancies and establish an ultrasound-based combing predictor for improving the prediction in pregnant women with prior-preterm birth who might ultimately undergo preterm birth (PTB).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

169 singleton pregnancies with prior-preterm birth were examined by cervical elastography from January to November of 2021. According to the ultrasound image and result of the following-up, the patients were separated into preterm groups and full-term groups with or without cerclage. There were five elastographic parameters: Elasticity Contrast Index (ECI), Cervical hard tissue Elasticity Ratio (CHR), External Cervical os Strain rate (ES), Closed Internal Cervical os Strain rate (CIS), CIS/ES ratio and CLmin. Multivariable logistic regression was used to screen out the most significant predictors. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was calculated to evaluate the ability of prediction.

RESULTS

The PTB group without cerclage showed significantly softer cervix stiffness, while those with cerclage showed significantly harder. CHRmin with P < 0.05 in the univariate logistic regression analysis was screened as a more valuable cervical elastosonography parameter than other ones. The combination of CLmin and CHRmin in un-cerclage and integrating CHRmin, maternal age and pre-pregnancy BMI in cerclage presented good predictive value. The results of AUC were higher than CLmin, respectively (0.775 vs 0.734, 0.729 vs 0.548).

CONCLUSIONS

The addition of cervical elastography parameters (such as CHRmin) might improve the ability to predict preterm birth in pregnant women with previous preterm delivery, which was better than using CL alone.

Reference values for interleukin-6 in the amniotic fluid of asymptomatic pregnant women

INTRODUCTION

Nowadays, proinflammatory factors are considered to play an important role in the pathophysiology of threatened preterm labor or chorioamnionitis. The aim of this study was to establish the normal reference range for interleukin-6 (IL-6) levels in the amniotic fluid and to identify factors which may alter this value.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Prospective study in a tertiary-level center including asymptomatic pregnant women undergoing amniocentesis for genetic studies from October 2016 to September 2019. IL-6 measurements in amniotic fluid were performed using a fluorescence immunoassay with microfluidic technology (ELLA Proteinsimple, Bio Techne). Maternal history and pregnancy data were also recorded.

RESULTS

This study included 140 pregnant women. Of those, women who underwent termination of pregnancy were excluded. Therefore, a total of 98 pregnancies were included in the final statistical analysis. The mean gestational age was 21.86 weeks (range: 15-38.7) at the time of amniocentesis, and 38.6 weeks (range: 30.9-41.4) at delivery. No cases of chorioamnionitis were reported. The log₁₀ IL-6 values follow a normal distribution (W = 0.990, p = 0.692). The median, and the 5th, 10th, 90th, and 95th percentiles for IL-6 levels were 573, 105, 130, 1645, and 2260 pg/mL, respectively. The log₁₀ IL-6 values were not affected by gestational age (p = 0.395), maternal age (p = 0.376), body mass index (p = 0.551), ethnicity (p = 0.467), smoking status (p = 0.933), parity (p = 0.557), method of conception (p = 0.322), or diabetes mellitus (p = 0.381).

CONCLUSIONS

The log₁₀ IL-6 values follow a normal distribution. IL-6 values are independent of gestational age, maternal age, body mass index, ethnicity, smoking status, parity and method of conception. Our study provides a normal reference range for IL-6 levels in the amniotic fluid that can be used in future studies. We also observed that normal IL-6 values were higher in the amniotic fluid than in serum.

Analysis of pregnancy outcomes in patients undergoing ultrasound-indicated cerclage and identification the influence factors for predicting preterm birth: A retrospective study of 87 cases

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the factors influencing preterm birth in patients after ultrasound-indicated cerclage with different cervical lengths (CL), and explore the optimal cut-off value of CL.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The retrospective study included 87 pregnant women with a history of preterm birth and second-trimester loss that received ultrasound-indicated cerclage in our hospital between January 2004 and April 2021. Groups were divided by CL at the demarcation point of 1.0, 1.5 and 2.0 cm respectively. The pregnancy outcomes were compared. Logistic regression analysis was performed to assess the independent influence factors. Receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curves were constructed and the area under the curve (AUC) was used to compare the prediction capability of the associated factors.

RESULTS

Significant difference was found in terms of patients delivered at ≥32 weeks of gestation (19 [55.9%]vs. 41 [77.4%], p < 0.05) and neonatal birth weight (2495 [1138,3185]vs. 2995 [2155,3235] g, p < 0.05), when the CL was categorized at the demarcation point of 1.5 cm. Body mass index (BMI) (odds ratio [OR] = 1.224, p < 0.05), a history of preterm birth and second-trimester loss (OR = 3.153, p < 0.05), and C-reactive protein (CRP) > 5 mg/L (OR = 8.097, p < 0.05) were independent risk factors for gestational age more than 28 weeks. The AUC of joint predictor A included those factors was 0.849 (95% CI: 0.701-0.998, p < 0.05). CRP>5 mg/L was found to be a significant independent risk factor for different gestational age at delivery.

CONCLUSIONS

A CL of 1.5 cm was the optimal cut-off value that could help women who underwent serial CL surveillance choose ultrasound-indicated cerclage at an appropriate time. High BMI, more history of preterm birth and second-trimester loss and abnormal CRP could be used as combined predictors to recognize the risk of preterm birth (<28 weeks) post-surgery.

Noninvasive prediction models of intra-amniotic infection in women with preterm labor

BACKGROUND

Among women with preterm labor, those with intra-amniotic infection present the highest risk of early delivery and the most adverse outcomes. The identification of intra-amniotic infection requires amniocentesis, perceived as too invasive by women and physicians. Noninvasive methods for identifying intra-amniotic infection and/or early delivery are crucial to focus early efforts on high-risk preterm labor women while avoiding unnecessary interventions in low-risk preterm labor women.

OBJECTIVE

This study modeled the best performing models, integrating biochemical data with clinical and ultrasound information to predict a composite outcome of intra-amniotic infection and/or spontaneous delivery within 7 days.

STUDY DESIGN

From 2015 to 2020, data from a cohort of women, who underwent amniocentesis to rule in or rule out intra-amniotic infection or inflammation, admitted with a diagnosis of preterm labor at <34 weeks of gestation at the Hospital Clinic and Hospital Sant Joan de Déu, Barcelona, Spain, were used. At admission, transvaginal ultrasound was performed, and maternal blood and vaginal samples were collected. Using high-dimensional biology, vaginal proteins (using multiplex immunoassay), amino acids (using high-performance liquid chromatography), and bacteria (using 16S ribosomal RNA gene amplicon sequencing) were explored to predict the composite outcome. We selected ultrasound, maternal blood, and vaginal predictors that could be tested with rapid diagnostic techniques and developed prediction models employing machine learning that was applied in a validation cohort.

RESULTS

A cohort of 288 women with preterm labor at <34 weeks of gestation, of which 103 (35%) had a composite outcome of intra-amniotic infection and/or spontaneous delivery within 7 days, were included in this study. The sample was divided into derivation (n=116) and validation (n=172) cohorts. Of note, 4 prediction models were proposed, including ultrasound transvaginal cervical length, maternal C-reactive protein, vaginal interleukin 6 (using an automated immunoanalyzer), vaginal pH (using a pH meter), vaginal lactic acid (using a reflectometer), and vaginal Lactobacillus genus (using quantitative polymerase chain reaction), with areas under the receiving operating characteristic curve ranging from 82.2% (95% confidence interval, ±3.1%) to 85.2% (95% confidence interval, ±3.1%), sensitivities ranging from 76.1% to 85.9%, and specificities ranging from 75.2% to 85.1%.

CONCLUSION

The study results have provided proof of principle of how noninvasive methods suitable for point-of-care systems can select high-risk cases among women with preterm labor and might substantially aid in clinical management and outcomes while improving the use of resources and patient experience.

A Prospective Study of Mid-Trimester MCP-1 Levels as a Predictor of Preterm Delivery

Background: The prevention of preterm delivery (PTD) represents one of the major topics in modern obstetrics. The aim was to design a prospective study and investigate if mid-trimester serum and amniotic fluid levels of MCP-1 could predict the occurence of spontaneous PTD. Methods: The study involved 198 women who underwent genetic amniocentesis and blood sampling in the middle of their trimester. After applying the criteria for inclusion in the study, there were 16 respondents in the study group, and 38 respondents in the control group. Level of MCP-1 in amniotic fluid and serum was measured with commercially available enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISA) and statistical analysis was conducted. Results: There was no statistically significant difference in serum or amniotic fluid MCP1 levels between PTD and the control groups. Conclusion: The results suggest that MCP-1 is probably not the most relevant marker for predicting PTD. This study provides new normative data for MCP-1 levels in amniotic fluid and maternal sera and is a valuable tool for future diagnostic and comparative studies.

Roles of the Microbiota of the Female Reproductive Tract in Gynecological and Reproductive Health

The microbiome of the female reproductive tract defies the convention that high biodiversity is a hallmark of an optimal ecosystem. Although not universally true, a homogeneous vaginal microbiome composed of species of Lactobacillus is generally associated with health, whereas vaginal microbiomes consisting of other taxa are generally associated with dysbiosis and a higher risk of disease. The past decade has seen a rapid advancement in our understanding of these unique biosystems. Of particular interest, substantial effort has been devoted to deciphering how members of the microbiome of the female reproductive tract impact pregnancy, with a focus on adverse outcomes, including but not limited to preterm birth. Herein, we review recent research efforts that are revealing the mechanisms by which these microorganisms of the female reproductive tract influence gynecologic and reproductive health of the female reproductive tract.

Developing and validating a risk prediction model for preterm birth at Felege Hiwot Comprehensive Specialized Hospital, North-West Ethiopia: a retrospective follow-up study

OBJECTIVE

To develop and validate a risk prediction model for the prediction of preterm birth using maternal characteristics.

DESIGN

This was a retrospective follow-up study. Data were coded and entered into EpiData, V.3.02, and were analysed using R statistical programming language V.4.0.4 for further processing and analysis. Bivariable logistic regression was used to identify the relationship between each predictor and preterm birth. Variables with p≤0.25 from the bivariable analysis were entered into a backward stepwise multivariable logistic regression model, and significant variables (p<0.05) were retained in the multivariable model. Model accuracy and goodness of fit were assessed by computing the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (discrimination) and calibration plot (calibration), respectively.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

This retrospective study was conducted among 1260 pregnant women who did prenatal care and finally delivered at Felege Hiwot Comprehensive Specialised Hospital, Bahir Dar city, north-west Ethiopia, from 30 January 2019 to 30 January 2021.

RESULTS

Residence, gravidity, haemoglobin <11 mg/dL, early rupture of membranes, antepartum haemorrhage and pregnancy-induced hypertension remained in the final multivariable prediction model. The area under the curve of the model was 0.816 (95% CI 0.779 to 0.856).

CONCLUSION

This study showed the possibility of predicting preterm birth using maternal characteristics during pregnancy. Thus, use of this model could help identify pregnant women at a higher risk of having a preterm birth to be linked to a centre.

Inflammatory Proteins in the Amniotic Fluid, Plasma, and Cervicovaginal Fluid for the Prediction of Intra-Amniotic Infection/Inflammation and Imminent Preterm Birth in Preterm Labor

OBJECTIVE

This study was aimed to develop models using multiple cytokine/chemokine levels in cervicovaginal fluid (CVF) and plasma and widely used noninvasive parameters that have better accuracy for predicting intra-amniotic infection and/or inflammation (IAI) and imminent spontaneous preterm delivery (SPTD, ≤48 hours) in women with preterm labor (PTL).

STUDY DESIGN

This was a retrospective cohort study of 95 singleton pregnant women with PTL (23-34 weeks) who underwent amniocentesis. Both CVF and plasma samples were obtained at the time of amniocentesis, and serum C-reactive protein (CRP) levels were measured. The amniotic fluid (AF), CVF, and plasma samples were assayed for interleukin (IL)-6, IL-8, IL-10, monocyte chemotactic protein-1 (MCP-1), and macrophage inflammatory protein-1β (MIP-1β) levels using a multiplex immunoassay kit.

RESULTS

The levels of most cytokines/chemokines measured in the AF and CVF were significantly higher in the women with than in those without IAI and imminent SPTD, whereas only high-plasma IL-10 level showed a significant association with imminent SPTD. In predicting IAI, proteins in AF had significantly higher areas under the curves (AUCs) than those in CVF and plasma. However, for predicting imminent SPTD, no significant differences in the AUCs of the outcome-associated proteins were observed among the measurements in AF, CVF, and maternal plasma. By using stepwise regression analyses, noninvasive models (using protein levels in CVF and baseline clinical parameters) were developed for the prediction of IAI and imminent SPTD. The AUC of these noninvasive models were similar to those of the invasive models (using AF protein levels and baseline clinical parameters).

CONCLUSION

Noninvasive models based on CVF cytokine/chemokine levels and widely used noninvasive parameters (especially CRP) act as good indicators for predicting the risk of IAI and imminent SPTD in women with PTL. Evaluation of cytokine/chemokine levels in plasma samples did not add valuable information regarding the two outcome measures in the PTL setting.

KEY POINTS

· Markers in either CVF or plasma alone did not have sufficient accuracy for predicting IAI and SPTD.. · Noninvasive models using CVF cytokine and CRP act as effective tools for predicting two outcomes.. · Evaluation of cytokine level in plasma did not add valuable information regarding two outcomes..

Machine Learning-Based Prediction Model of Preterm Birth Using Electronic Health Record

Objective

Preterm birth (PTB) was one of the leading causes of neonatal death. Predicting PTB in the first trimester and second trimester will help improve pregnancy outcomes. The aim of this study is to propose a prediction model based on machine learning algorithms for PTB.

Method

Data for this study were reviewed from 2008 to 2018, and all the participants included were selected from a hospital in China. Six algorisms, including Naive Bayesian (NBM), support vector machine (SVM), random forest tree (RF), artificial neural networks (ANN), K-means, and logistic regression, were used to predict PTB. The receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity were used to assess the performance of the model.

Results

A total of 9550 pregnant women were included in the study, of which 4775 women had PTB. A total of 4775 people were randomly selected as controls. Based on 27 weeks of gestation, the area under the curve (AUC) and the accuracy of the RF model were the highest compared with other algorithms (accuracy: 0.816; AUC = 0.885, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.873–0.897). Meanwhile, there was positive association between the accuracy and AUC of the RF model and gestational age. Age, magnesium, fundal height, serum inorganic phosphorus, mean platelet volume, waist size, total cholesterol, triglycerides, globulins, and total bilirubin were the main influence factors of PTB.

Conclusion

The results indicated that the prediction model based on the RF algorithm had a potential value to predict preterm birth in the early stage of pregnancy. The important analysis of the RF model suggested that intervention for main factors of PTB in the early stages of pregnancy would reduce the risk of PTB.

Molecular mechanisms of environmental toxin cadmium at the feto-maternal interface investigated using an organ-on-chip (FMi-OOC) model

Human labor is associated with feto-maternal-derived signals that coordinate to initiate delivery. Exposure to environmental chemicals can prematurely trigger labor-initiating signals at the feto-maternal interface (FMi: decidua, amniochorion), leading to spontaneous preterm birth (PTB). Testing the association between environmental chemical exposure and PTB is difficult due to many limitations in vivo or in vitro. Physiological organ-on-chips (OOCs) are potential alternatives for studying mechanisms leading to PTB. The presented study tested the effect of maternal exposure to cadmium (Cd), an environmental toxin, using the FMi-OOC that incorporates maternal decidua cells and three different fetal cells (chorion, amnion mesenchymal, and amnion epithelial cells). Cd transport through the FMi and its impact on cell cycle, cell death, and inflammation were analyzed. Cd treatment resulted in significant cell death and a pro-inflammatory environment in the maternal decidua, but had minimal effect on the fetal chorion cells, and no effect in the fetal amnion cells compared to controls. The maternal response, but lack of fetal response, indicates that Cd-mediated adverse effects originate from maternal pathophysiology rather than fetal-derived triggers of preterm labor. This study demonstrates that the FMi-OOC can indeed predict the response of FMi upon exposure to chemicals, opening the possibility for using OOC models for environmental toxin screens.

Development of a mouse model of ascending infection and preterm birth

Background

Microbial invasion of the intraamniotic cavity and intraamniotic inflammation are factors associated with spontaneous preterm birth. Understanding the route and kinetics of infection, sites of colonization, and mechanisms of host inflammatory response is critical to reducing preterm birth risk.

Objectives

This study developed an animal model of ascending infection and preterm birth with live bacteria (E. coli) in pregnant CD-1 mice with the goal of better understanding the process of microbial invasion of the intraamniotic cavity and intraamniotic inflammation.

Study design

Multiple experiments were conducted in this study. To determine the dose of E. coli required to induce preterm birth, CD-1 mice were injected vaginally with four different doses of E. coli (10³, 10⁶, 10¹⁰, or 10¹¹ colony forming units [CFU]) in 40 μL of nutrient broth or broth alone (control) on an embryonic day (E)15. Preterm birth (defined as delivery before E18.5) was monitored using live video. E. coli ascent kinetics were measured by staining the E. coli with lipophilic tracer DiD for visualization through intact tissue with an in vivo imaging system (IVIS) after inoculation. The E. coli were also directly visualized in reproductive tissues by staining the bacteria with carboxyfluorescein succinimidyl ester (CFSE) prior to administration and via immunohistochemistry (IHC) by staining tissues with anti-E. coli antibody. Each pup’s amniotic fluid was cultured separately to determine the extent of microbial invasion of the intraamniotic cavity at different time points. Intraamniotic inflammation resulting from E. coli invasion was assessed with IHC for inflammatory markers (TLR-4, P-NF-κB) and neutrophil marker (Ly-6G) for chorioamnionitis at 6- and 24-h post-inoculation.

Results

Vaginally administered E. coli resulted in preterm birth in a dose-dependent manner with higher doses causing earlier births. In ex vivo imaging and IHC detected uterine horns proximal to the cervix had increased E. coli compared to the distal uterine horns. E. coli were detected in the uterus, fetal membranes (FM), and placenta in a time-dependent manner with 6 hr having increased intensity of E. coli positive signals in pups near the cervix and in all pups at 24 hr. Similarly, E. coli grew from the cultures of amniotic fluid collected nearest to the cervix, but not from the more distal samples at 6 hr post-inoculation. At 24 hr, all amniotic fluid cultures regardless of distance from the cervix, were positive for E. coli. TLR-4 and P-NF-κB signals were more intense in the tissues where E. coli was present (placenta, FM and uterus), displaying a similar trend toward increased signal in proximal gestational sacs compared to distal at 6 hr. Ly-6G+ cells, used to confirm chorioamnionitis, were increased at 24 hr compared to 6 hr post-inoculation and control.

Conclusion

We report the development of mouse model of ascending infection and the associated inflammation of preterm birth. Clinically, these models can help to understand mechanisms of infection associated preterm birth, determine targets for intervention, or identify potential biomarkers that can predict a high-risk pregnancy status early in pregnancy.

Use of cervical elastography at 18 to 22 weeks' gestation in the prediction of spontaneous preterm birth

BACKGROUND

Accurate identification of the women who will have spontaneous preterm birth continues to be a great challenge. The use of cervical elastography for prediction of preterm birth is promising, but several limitations exist. Newer cervical elastography technology has been developed that may prove useful in evaluation of risk of preterm birth.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to develop standard cervical elastography nomograms for singleton pregnancies at 18 to 22 weeks' gestation using the E-Cervix ultrasound application, assess intraobserver reliability of the E-Cervix elastography parameters, and determine whether these cervical elastography measurements can be used in the prediction of spontaneous preterm birth.

STUDY DESIGN

This was a prospective cohort study of pregnant women undergoing cervical length screening assessment via transvaginal ultrasound examination at 18 to 22 weeks' gestation. A semiautomatic, cervical elastography application (E-Cervix) was used during the transvaginal examination to calculate 5 quantitative parameters (internal os stiffness, external os stiffness, internal -to -external os stiffness ratio, hardness ratio, and elasticity contrast index) and create a standard nomogram for each one of them. The intraobserver reliability was calculated using Shrout-Fleiss reliability. Cervical elastography parameters were compared between those who delivered preterm (<37 weeks) spontaneously and those who delivered full term. A multivariable logistic regression model was performed to determine the ability of the cervical elastography parameters to predict spontaneous preterm birth.

RESULTS

A total of 742 women were included, of which 49 (6.6%) had a spontaneous preterm delivery. A standard nomogram was created for each of the cervical elastography parameters from those who had a full-term birth in the index pregnancy (n=693). Intraobserver reliability was good or excellent (intraclass correlation, 0.757-0.887) for each of the cervical elastography parameters except external os stiffness which was poor (intraclass correlation, 0.441). In univariate analysis, none of the cervical elastography parameters were associated with a statistically significant increased risk of spontaneous preterm birth. In a multivariable model adjusting for history of preterm birth, gravidity, ethnicity, cervical cerclage, and vaginal progesterone use, increasing elasticity contrast index was significantly associated with an increased risk of spontaneous preterm birth (odds ratio, 1.15; 95% confidence interval, 1.02-1.30; P=.02).

CONCLUSION

Cervical elastography parameters are reliably measured and are stable across 18 to 22 weeks' gestation. Based on our findings, the elasticity contrast index was associated with an increased risk of spontaneous preterm birth and may be a useful parameter for future research.

Assessment of an intervention to optimise antenatal management of women admitted with preterm labour and intact membranes using amniocentesis-based predictive risk models: study protocol for a randomised controlled trial (OPTIM-PTL Study)

INTRODUCTION

The majority of women admitted with threatened preterm labour (PTL) do not delivery prematurely. While those with microbial invasion of the amniotic cavity (MIAC) represent the highest risk group, this is a condition that is not routinely ruled out since it requires amniocentesis. Identification of low-risk or high-risk cases might allow individualisation of care, that is, reducing overtreatment with corticosteroids and shorten hospital stay in low-risk women, while allowing early antibiotic therapy in those with MIAC. Benefits versus risks of amniocentesis-based predictor models of spontaneous delivery within 7 days and/or MIAC have not been evaluated.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This will be a Spanish randomised, multicentre clinical trial in singleton pregnancies (23.0-34.6 weeks) with PTL, conducted in 13 tertiary centres. The intervention arm will consist in the use of amniocentesis-based predictor models: if low risk, hospital discharge within 24 hours of results with no further medication will be recommended. If high risk, antibiotics will be added to standard management. The control group will be managed according to standard institutional protocols, without performing amniocentesis for this indication. The primary outcome will be total antenatal doses of corticosteroids, and secondary outcomes will be days of maternal stay and the occurrence of clinical chorioamnionitis. A cost analysis will be undertaken. To observe a reduction from 90% to 70% in corticosteroid doses, a reduction in 1 day of hospital stay (SD of 2) and a reduction from 24% to 12% of clinical chorioamnionitis, a total of 340 eligible patients randomised 1 to 1 to each study arm is required (power of 80%, with type I error α=0.05 and two-sided test, considering a dropout rate of 20%). Randomisation will be stratified by gestational age and centre.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Prior to receiving approval from the Ethics Committee (HCB/2020/1356) and the Spanish Agency of Medicines and Medical Devices (AEMPS) (identification number: 2020-005-202-26), the trial was registered in the European Union Drug Regulating Authorities Clinical Trials database (2020-005202-26). AEMPS approved the trial as a low-intervention trial. All participants will be required to provide written informed consent. Findings will be disseminated through workshops, peer-reviewed publications and national/international conferences.

PROTOCOL VERSION

V.4 10 May 2021.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBERS

NCT04831086 and Eudract number 2020-005202-26.

Exploratory and confirmatory analysis to investigate the presence of vaginal metabolome expression of microbial invasion of the amniotic cavity in women with preterm labor using high-performance liquid chromatography

BACKGROUND

Although the influence of microbial invasion of the amniotic cavity on the development of spontaneous preterm delivery is unquestionable, the use of an invasive procedure to diagnose the status of an infection limits its clinical translation.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to use exploratory and confirmatory analyses to investigate the presence of vaginal metabolome expression of microbial invasion of the amniotic cavity in women diagnosed as having preterm labor using high-performance liquid chromatography.

STUDY DESIGN

In 140 women with singleton pregnancies and a diagnosis of preterm labor at <34 weeks' gestation, we analyzed vaginal amino acid concentrations using high-performance liquid chromatography. Vaginal samples were collected shortly after the amniocentesis performed at admission to rule out microbial invasion of the amniotic cavity. Data were normalized for the median of all the amino acid concentrations evaluated. Microbial invasion of the amniotic cavity was defined as a positive aerobic or anaerobic amniotic fluid culture for the presence of bacteria or yeast or Ureaplasma species or Mycoplasma hominis in the mycoplasma culture or a positive polymerase chain reaction result for 16S rRNA gene sequence. Exploratory analysis was performed in half of the sample and confirmatory analysis in the other half. We compared vaginal amino acid concentrations between women with and without microbial invasion of the amniotic cavity in both cohorts. The area under the curve with 95% confidence interval values were calculated for vaginal amino acids with significant differences.

RESULTS

In the exploratory cohort (2014-2015), 17 of 76 women (22.3%) had microbial invasion of the amniotic cavity compared with 14 of 72 (19.4%) in the confirmatory cohort (2016-2017). In the exploratory cohort, we found significantly higher amino acid concentrations of vaginal taurine, lysine, and cysteine and significantly lower concentrations of vaginal glutamate, aspartate, and the aspartate to asparagine ratio. These significant differences were confirmed in the confirmatory cohort. The area under the curve of these vaginal amino acids to predict microbial invasion of the amniotic cavity ranged between 0.72 and 0.79, with cysteine being the amino acid with the best performance with an area under the curve of 0.79 (95% confidence interval, 0.71-0.88).

CONCLUSION

We found the vaginal metabolome expression of microbial invasion of the amniotic cavity in women with preterm labor and intact membranes. These findings might open the possibility to develop noninvasive diagnostic tools of microbial invasion of the amniotic cavity with the aim of selecting women who would most likely benefit from an amniocentesis for this indication.

Stress and Metabolomics for Prediction of Spontaneous Preterm Birth: A Prospective Nested Case-Control Study in a Tertiary Hospital

Spontaneous preterm birth (sPTB) is the leading cause of infant morbidity and mortality worldwide. Deficiency of effective predict methods is an urgent problem that needs to be solved. Numbers of researchers spare no efforts to investigate differential indicators. To evaluate the value of the differential indicators, a prospective nested case-control study was carried out. Among an overall cohort of 1,050 pregnancies, 20 sPTB pregnancies, and 20 full-term pregnancies were enrolled in this study. Participants were followed-up until labor. The psychological profile was evaluated utilizing the Zung Self-Rating Depression Scale at 11-14 weeks. Stress-related biomarker-cortisol and metabolites were detected by Electrochemiluminescence Immunoassay (ECLIA) and Gas Chromatography-Mass Spectrometry (GC-MS) in serum samples during pregnancy, respectively. The expression level of cortisol was up-regulated in serum and the score of the Zung Self-Rating Depression Scale was significantly higher in the sPTB group when compared to the control group. Note that, 29 metabolomics were differentially expressed between the sPTB group and the control group. The scores of the Zung Self-Rating Depression Scale, the level of cortisol, Eicosane, methyltetradecanoate, and stearic acid in serum were selected to establish the model with lasso logistic regression. Validation of the model yielded an optimum corrected AUC value of 89.5%, 95% CI: 0.8006-0.9889 with a sensitivity of 100.0%, and specificity of 78.9%. In conclusion, this study establishes a prediction model of sPTB with five variables, which may predict sPTB more accurately and sensitively in the second trimester.