The impact of job uncertainty on first-birth postponement

The current 'dramatically' high paternal ages at childbirth are not unprecedented

There is strong individual-level evidence that late fatherhood is related to a wide range of health disorders and conditions in offspring. Over the last decades, mean paternal ages at childbirth have risen drastically. This has alarmed researchers from a wide range of fields. However, existing studies have an important shortcoming in that they lack a long-term perspective. This article is a step change in providing such a long-term perspective. We unveil that in many countries the current mean paternal ages at childbirth and proportions of fathers of advanced age at childbirth are not unprecedented. Taking the detected U-shaped trend pattern into account, we discuss individual- and population-level implications of the recent increases in paternal ages at childbirth and highlight important knowledge gaps. At the individual level, some of the biological mechanisms that are responsible for the paternal age-related health risk might, at least to some degree, be counterbalanced by various social factors. Further, how these individual-level effects are linked to population health and human cognitive development might be influenced by various factors, including technical advances and regulations in prenatal diagnostics.

Family Life Courses, Uncertain Futures, and the Changing World of Work: State-of-the-Art and Prospects

Labour markets in post-industrial countries have been undergoing tremendous transformations in the last two decades, substantially changing the conditions in which young adults take family decisions and raise children. Whilst these changes create new opportunities, they also generate risks which potentially foster uncertain futures and affect individuals' opportunities to earn income, provide care for family members, and make long-term commitments. This Special Issue aims to stimulate the debate on the effects of rapid labour market transformations and growing uncertainty on families in contemporary wealthiest countries. Its articles suggest that economic uncertainty, the threat of unemployment or precarious employment, and financial difficulties lead to fertility postponement and increase the risk of union disruption. These effects intensify when labour market deregulation goes in tandem with labour market dualization and become more pronounced during periods of economic hardship, such as economic recessions or the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, the effects of economic activity on family-related behaviours have become less gendered as women increasingly gain economic independence. Finally, it appears that highly educated workers and members of the upper social classes face increasingly better conditions for realising their fertility intentions than their lower-educated counterparts and those of the lower social classes. In this introductory article, we review the theoretical premises and the empirical evidence to provide a comprehensive background on what labour force participation and its conditions imply for family life courses. We then introduce the articles collected in this Special Issue and conclude with a discussion on prospects for future research.

The fertility timing gap: the intended and real timing of childbirth

The fertility gap, which indicates the difference between the planned and actual number of children born, can be explained by the shift in parenthood to older ages and is associated with the non-attainment of one's intended reproductive plans. This paper focuses on the gap in the timing of entry into parenthood, i.e. between the planned and actual age at the birth of the first child. The study is based on data from the Women 2016 survey which re-interviewed women of fertile age from the second wave of the Czech Generations & Gender Survey conducted in 2008. At the population level, the fertility timing gap differs across generations. While for Czech women born between 1966 and 1971 the planned age exceeded the actual observed age by one year, the realisation of fertility occurred two years later than planned for the youngest generation (1983-1990) included in the study. At the individual level, the later-than-planned realisation of fertility was found to be related primarily to partner-related factors.

Associations between lipid-lowering drugs and pregnancy and perinatal outcomes: a Mendelian randomization study

INTRODUCTION

Mounting evidence has indicated that maternal dyslipidemia is associated with adverse obstetric outcomes, and the actions of lipid-lowering drugs in pregnant women remain controversial. Hence, this study aimed to appraise the causal relationship of lipid-lowering drugs [hydroxymethylglutaryl-coenzyme reductase (HMGCR) inhibitors, PCSK9 inhibitors, and NPC1L1 inhibitors] with pregnancy and perinatal outcomes using drug-targeting Mendelian randomization analysis.

METHODS

As a proxy for lipid-lowering drug exposure, two genetic instruments were used: genetic variants within or near the gene linked to low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) and the expression of quantitative trait loci of the drug target gene. Effect estimates were calculated using the inverse variance weighting (IVW) method and summary data-based Mendelian randomization (SMR) method. Heterogeneity and pleiotropy were assessed by Mendelian randomization-Egger regression, the Cochran Q test, and MR-PRESSO analysis.

RESULTS

HMGCR inhibitors were ascribed to a reduced risk of preeclampsia in both the IVW-MR method [odds ratio (OR) 0.583; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.418-0.812; P  = 0.001] and SMR analysis (OR 0.816; 95% CI 0.675-0.986; P  = 0.036). The causal link between HMGCR inhibitors and offspring birthweight was statistically significant only in the analysis using the IVW method (OR, 0.879; 95% CI, 0.788-0.980; P  = 0.020), and the combined results of the OR values supported the potential inhibitory effect of HMGCR inhibitors on offspring birthweight. Causal associations between lipid-lowering drugs and gestational diabetes, preterm birth, and congenital anomalies were not detected in either analysis.

CONCLUSION

No causal associations were observed between lipid-lowering drugs and gestational diabetes, preterm birth or congenital anomalies, whereas genetically predicted HMGCR inhibition dramatically reduced the risk of preeclampsia but attenuated offspring birthweight.

Navigating work and motherhood: exploring the link between career orientation and childbearing motivations in emerging adulthood

BACKGROUND

Difficulties in reconciling work and family life are recognised as one of the major reasons for women delaying or even forgoing childbearing. Nonetheless, there are different mechanisms through which women's engagement in the labour market can impact their choices regarding having children. The current study focuses on the relationship between women's career orientation and the childbearing motivation of young, childless women. Additionally, we examine the moderating effect of women's self-esteem.

METHODS

Questionnaires to assess women's childbearing motivation, career orientation (career commitment and career centeredness), and self-esteem were administered online to Polish childless women aged 18-25 (N = 358). Multivariate regression was performed to verify how professional aspirations determine childbearing motivation. Moderation analysis included self-esteem in the equation.

RESULTS

Women's desire to be employed over their life course (career commitment) was associated with perceiving childbearing as less strenuous. However, women who placed a higher value on professional development perceived more costs and barriers related to parenthood. Women with higher self-esteem demonstrated a generally more negative view of childbearing, yet their perceived costs of having children increased along with rising professional aspirations.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results demonstrate that career aspirations are a highly complex construct, and their relationship to childbearing motivation may differ depending on how women perceive their future in the labour market. The mere desire to engage in professional work is not detrimental to childbearing motivation, but the anticipated costs of having children become greater the more a woman is career-centred and the lower her self-esteem.

Employment Instability and Childbirth over the Last 20 Years in Italy

Family formation is fostered by circumstances of plannability and economic and social stability. Conversely, as documented in previous literature, employment instability can hamper fertility decisions. Based on data from the Italian Labour Force Survey, this paper examines the association between employment-related instability and the likelihood of having a first or additional child from 2000 to 2020 in Italy, covering a period characterised by increasing labour market deregulation. Our results show that individual employment instability, such as temporary employment or unemployment, negatively influences the likelihood of having a first and second child, while the progression to higher parities is less affected by employment situations. Building upon previous research, we demonstrate how the negative association between fertility and employment instability has intensified over recent decades, especially for women. The large sample size also allowed for the examination of specific differences by educational levels and both partners' employment situation. In contrast to traditional views about gender roles, the employment situation of one's partner seems to matter less for women than for men.

Employment Protection Legislation, Labour Market Dualism, and Fertility in Europe

Theoretically, whether a more loosely regulated labour market inhibits or fosters fertility in a society is ambiguous. Empirically, the few studies analysing the relationship between the strictness of employment protection legislation-the norms and procedures regulating labour markets' hiring and firing processes-and fertility have found mixed evidence. This paper reconciles the ambivalent conclusions of previous studies by analysing the impact of employment protection legislation and labour market dualism on total fertility across 19 European countries between 1990 and 2019. Our results indicate that an increase in employment protection for regular workers positively affects total fertility. Nonetheless, an increasing gap between the regulation of regular and temporary employment-that is, labour market dualism-negatively impacts total fertility. These effects, of small-to-moderate intensity, are relatively homogeneous across age groups and geographical areas and are especially pronounced among the lower educated. We conclude that labour market dualism, rather than a "rigid" employment protection legislation, discourages fertility.

Sooner, later, or never: Changing fertility intentions due to Covid-19 in China's Covid-19 epicentre

Using survey data collected from Hubei province, China's Covid-19 epicentre, in August 2020, this study examines how fertility intentions of Chinese citizens changed during the Covid-19 pandemic. We consider not only whether people changed their fertility plans due to Covid-19 but also distinguish three types of change: bringing forward ('sooner'), postponing ('later'), and abandoning ('never') planned fertility. Over half of those who planned to have a child intended to change their fertility plans due to Covid-19. Younger individuals, those of non-Han ethnicities, urban residents, those with one child already, and those with ever-infected family members were more likely to change their fertility plans. While the effects of some characteristics seem to be short term, other characteristics such as age and number of children show more consequential influences. Older individuals and those planning their second child were particularly prone to abandoning their childbearing plans due to Covid-19. The pandemic may thus complicate China's latest efforts to boost its low fertility.

Measuring the effect of employment uncertainty on fertility in low-fertility contexts: an overview of existing measures

Numerous studies aim to connect negative fertility desires and outcomes with employment conditions deemed to be uncertain. However, there is a lack of consensus about how to define, conceptualise, and measure employment uncertainty. This paper considers issues surrounding the conceptualisation of employment uncertainty. It then reviews existing measures of employment uncertainty in the context of fertility decisions. Finally, it raises considerations about their use. While some aspects of employment uncertainty are well studied, there are still gaps between theory and empirical evidence. Researchers should be aware of existing population heterogeneity, contextual factors, and model selection when considering their conceptualisation of employment uncertainty.

Fertility plans in the early times of the COVID-19 pandemic: The role of occupational and financial uncertainty in Italy

This study investigates the association between objective and subjective indicators of economic uncertainty, generated by the COVID-19 health and economic crisis, and young Italians' fertility plans during the 2020. We use unique repeated cross-sectional data, collected at different time points during the pandemic (March and October/November 2020) together with pre-COVID data (2016). The data offer a standard fertility intention question pre- and during-COVID, and also a direct question on whether pre-COVID fertility plans have been confirmed, postponed or abandoned. In March 2020, individuals with more vulnerable occupations show a lower probability of intending to have a(nother) child in the short-term and a higher probability of abandoning their pre-COVID fertility plan; in October 2020 changes in fertility plans do not vary by employment condition. Instead, both in March and October, those who suffered from a negative income shock and those with negative expectations on their future income and occupation are more likely to abandon their pre-pandemic fertility plan compared to their better off counterparts. Overall, economic uncertainty seems to have similarly affected men and women's fertility intentions. Our findings point to the fact that the unequal economic consequences of the pandemic also produced and will produce heterogeneous effects on fertility intentions.

Employment uncertainty and fertility intentions: Stability or resilience?

The role of employment uncertainty as a fertility driver has previously been studied with a limited set of constructs, leading to inconclusive results. We address this oversight by considering perceived stability of employment and perceived resilience to potential job loss as two key dimensions of employment uncertainty in relation to fertility decision-making. The present study relies on the 2017 Italian Trustlab survey and its employment uncertainty module. We find that perception of resilience to job loss is a powerful predictor of fertility intentions, whereas perception of employment stability has only a limited impact. The observed relationship between resilience and fertility intentions is robust to the inclusion of person-specific risk attitude and does not depend on the unemployment rate or the share of fixed-term contracts in the area of residence. We conclude that the notion of employment uncertainty includes distinct expectations towards the future, which should be considered separately to understand fertility decision-making.Supplementary material for this article is available at: https://doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2021.1939406.

Economic Precariousness and the Transition to Parenthood: A Dynamic and Multidimensional Approach

Economic precariousness has taken on a central role in explanations of the postponement of childbearing in developed societies. However, most studies conceptualize and operationalize precariousness as being static and one-dimensional, which provides only a partial perspective on the links between precariousness and fertility. In this paper, we study precariousness as a dynamic and multidimensional concept, distinguishing between past and current precariousness as well as between precariousness relating to income and to employment. Analyses are based on Dutch full-population register data. We select all inhabitants of the Netherlands who left education in 2006 and follow them until 2018. Event history analyses show that current and past income and employment precariousness all have independent negative effects on the first birth rate for men. Current and past employment precariousness and past income precariousness also reduce the first birth rate for women, but current income precariousness increases women’s probability of first conception. When precariousness is both persistent and multidimensional, it is associated with a threefold decrease in the monthly probability of conceiving a first child for men and almost a halving of the probability for women. Our analyses show the need for going beyond static and one-dimensional analyses in order to understand how economic precariousness may affect fertility behaviour.

Economic Uncertainty, Cultural and Ideational Transition, and Low Fertility

Increased objective uncertainties, upward movement in the hierarchy of needs, and associated cultural and ideational transition are inherent to modern societies. These factors were previously treated as independent macro-shocks and studied separately, without regard for their interactions. In this paper, we provide an all-around framework to interpret fertility behavior and low fertility in developed economies, to compensate for the isolation of economic uncertainty from a cultural and ideational transition in previous empirical studies. In this regard, we conduct an empirical analysis of panel data of 34 OECD countries from 2000 to 2018, to discuss the impact of economic uncertainty on the fertility rate and the moderating effect of cultural and ideational transition on that impact. Below are our findings: (1) economic uncertainty significantly inhibits the fertility rate, and such an inhibiting effect is found to be underestimated after endogeneity is controlled; (2) according to heterogeneity analysis, the inhibiting effect of economic uncertainty on the fertility rate is stronger after the 2008 financial crisis and among low-income economies and countries where Confucianism is practiced; (3) a significant negative moderating effect of cultural and ideational transition on the relationship between economic uncertainty and fertility rate is observed, indicating that the inhibiting effect of structural dimensions that combine objective and subjective factors regarding the fertility rate may be self-reinforcing; and, (4) further tests show that economic uncertainty and cultural and ideational transition affect the fertility rate by means of the effect of delayed parenthood, the substitution of cohabitation for marriage, and fertility preferences. We find that fertility behavior is cumulatively affected by both economic uncertainty and cultural and ideational transition. This implies that reducing economic uncertainty and fostering a culture that encourages marriage and fertility are fundamental for increasing the fertility rate in China, a country resorting to the third-child policy to promote a fertility rebound.

Narratives of the Future Affect Fertility: Evidence from a Laboratory Experiment

In recent years, fertility rates have declined in most wealthy countries. This phenomenon has largely been explained by focusing on the rise of economic uncertainty. We contribute to this debate by arguing that, under uncertain conditions, narratives of the future-i.e., socially conveyed imagined futures-impact individuals' decision-making about childbearing. To assess this impact, we conducted (for the first time in fertility intention research) a controlled laboratory experiment in two contrasting settings: Florence (Italy, N = 800) and Oslo (Norway, N = 874). Individuals were randomly exposed to a specific positive or negative future economic scenario (treatments) and were compared with individuals who were not exposed to any scenario (control group). Participants were then asked whether they intended to have a child in the next three years. The results showed a clear causal impact of narratives of the future on fertility intentions among the participants. Moreover, when the actual economic condition at the macro- (country context) or micro-level (labor-market status and characteristics) was more favorable, negative narratives of the future played a more crucial role. Conversely, when the actual economic conditions were less favorable, positive narratives of the future proved especially important. We conclude that, in the era of global uncertainty, individuals respond to more than their actual situation and constraints; narratives of the future create a distance experience from the daily routine that plays a potent role by inhibiting or facilitating fertility decision-making.

Brick-by-brick inequality. Homeownership in Italy, employment instability and wealth transmission

This paper investigates changes between, and inequalities within, birth-cohorts in Italy, surrounding homeownership. Italy is a homeownership and familialistic society, where in recent decades an increasing 'generational divide' in employment prospects has opened up, as a side-effect of a partial and targeted labour market deregulation. Drawing on the interplay of macro-level constraints with micro-level factors, we discuss patterns of inequality in attaining homeownership between cohorts, arising from greater instability of employment for young adults, and within cohorts, stemming from class-based patterns of intergenerational wealth transmission. Our analytical strategy combines a sequential cohort design with two levels of analysis that simultaneously consider young people around the normative age of housing independence and wealth transmission from their families triggered by their leaving the nest. Longitudinal analyses apply random-effects probit models and linear probability distributed fixed-effects to panel data from the Bank of Italy (SHIW 1989-2016). Results show a decrease in homeownership attainment across cohorts, which can be partially ascribed to employment disadvantages faced by younger cohorts. On top of this, class-specific patterns of intergenerational transmission are in place: lower classes rely on timely housing wealth transfers, whereas upper classes are prepared to provide their children with an extended stream of financial transfers.

The Gendered Relationship Between (Old and New Forms of) Employment Instability and Union Dissolution

The present study contributes to a more comprehensive understanding of the relation between employment instability and union dissolution. To address the oversights of previous research, we disentangle the effect of employment instability on union dissolution by: (i) considering not only the effect of joblessness, but also the type of employment contract; (ii) evaluating both status and the accumulation of instability over the life course; and (iii) detecting gender differences. We focus on Italy, applying event-history techniques to the most recent Italian Multipurpose Survey “Families, social subjects and life cycle” of 2016, observing cohorts from 1950 to 1986. Our results suggest that the effect of employment instability on union dissolution is gender-specific: joblessness and limited-time employment are facilitators for men’s dissolution, while, for women, joblessness is an inhibitor for dissolution, and time-limited and permanent employment do not substantially differ. We also highlight the crucial role of the persistence of instability in unpacking the association between employment instability and union dissolution. This paper advances—for the first time for Italy, at least—that men’s time-limited employment arrangements negatively affect a couple’s stability.

The Changing Association Between Homeownership and the Transition to Parenthood

The literature suggests a positive link between homeownership and the transition to parenthood. However, in recent decades, couples' preference for becoming homeowners before having their first child has been undermined by rising housing unaffordability and housing uncertainty. An archetypal example is Britain, where homeownership rates among young adults have fallen substantially as a result of low wages, unemployment, reductions in the availability of mortgage credit, and rising house prices. This situation has produced a housing crisis. Using longitudinal data from the British Household Panel Survey (1991-2008) and the United Kingdom Household Longitudinal Study (2009-2016), we apply multilevel, discrete-time event-history techniques to a sample of women aged 18-42. We investigate whether and how the link between homeownership and entering parenthood has changed in Britain in recent decades. Our findings reveal that in comparison with the 1990s, the likelihood of becoming a parent has declined among homeowners, whereas childbearing rates among private renters have remained stable. Thus, owner-occupiers and private renters have become more similar in terms of their likelihood of entering parenthood. Overall, our findings question the classical micro-level assumption of a positive link between homeownership and transition to parenthood, at least among Britain's "Generation Rent." These findings are subsequently interpreted in terms of increased housing uncertainty.

Employment Instability and Fertility in Europe: A Meta-Analysis

The relationship between employment instability and fertility is a major topic in demographic research, with a proliferation of published papers on this matter, especially since the Great Recession. Employment instability, which most often manifests in unemployment or time-limited employment, is usually deemed to have a negative effect on fertility, although different fertility reactions are hypothesized by sociological theories, and micro-level evidence is fragmented and contradictory. We used meta-analytic techniques to synthesize European research findings, offer general conclusions about the effects of employment instability on fertility (in terms of direction and size), and rank different sources of employment instability. Our results suggest that employment instability has a nonnegligible negative effect on fertility. Men's unemployment is more detrimental for fertility than men's time-limited employment; conversely, a woman having a fixed-term contract is least likely to have a child. Next, the negative effect of employment instability on fertility has become stronger over time, and is more severe in Southern European countries, where social protection for families and the unemployed is least generous. Finally, meta-regression estimates demonstrate that failing to account for income and partner characteristics leads to an overestimation of the negative effect of employment instability on fertility. We advance the role of these two factors as potential mechanisms by which employment instability affects fertility. Overall, this meta-analysis provides the empirical foundation for new studies on the topic.

Economic complexity and fertility: insights from a low fertility country

This paper analyzes the relationship between a new indicator of economic context, economic complexity (EC), and fertility change in Italian provinces between 2006 and 2015. We hypothesize that the level of EC is associated with fertility as it reflects a territory's capacity to innovate, grow and create job opportunities. The results illustrate a clear positive association between EC and fertility change across Italian provinces for the period considered, net of traditional fertility predictors. Those areas that stand at the frontiers of EC are also more likely to dominate and adapt to the negative consequences of globalization.

The Great Recession and Fertility in Europe: A Sub-national Analysis

This study investigates how the changes in labour market conditions and economic growth were associated with fertility before and during the Great Recession in Europe in 2002-2014. In contrast to previous studies, which largely concentrated at the country level, we use data for 251 European regions in 28 European Union (EU) member states prior to the withdrawal of the United Kingdom in January 2020. We apply three-level growth-curve model which allows for a great deal of flexibility in modelling temporal change while controlling for variation in economic conditions across regions and countries. Our findings show that fertility decline was strongly related to unemployment increase; this relationship was significant at different reproductive ages. Deteriorating economic conditions were associated with a stronger decline in fertility during the economic recession as compared with the pre-recession period. This evidence suggests the salience of factors such as broader perception of uncertainty that we could not capture in our models and which rose to prominence during the Great Recession. Furthermore, strongest fertility declines were observed in Southern Europe, Ireland and parts of Central and Eastern Europe, i.e. countries and regions where labour market conditions deteriorated most during the recession period. In Western Europe, and especially in the Nordic countries, fertility rates were not closely associated with the recession indicators.

A reflection on economic uncertainty and fertility in Europe: The Narrative Framework

The generalized and relatively homogeneous fertility decline across European countries in the aftermath of the Great Recession poses serious challenges to our knowledge of contemporary low fertility patterns. In this paper, we argue that fertility decisions are not a mere "statistical shadow of the past", and advance the Narrative Framework, a new approach to the relationship between economic uncertainty and fertility. This framework proffers that individuals act according to or despite uncertainty based on their "narrative of the future" - imagined futures embedded in social elements and their interactions. We also posit that personal narratives of the future are shaped by the "shared narratives" produced by socialization agents, including parents and peers, as well as by the narratives produced by the media and other powerful opinion formers. Finally, within this framework, we propose several empirical strategies, from both a qualitative and a quantitative perspective, including an experimental approach, for assessing the role of narratives of the future in fertility decisions.