Mortality and surgical risk assessment among the extreme old undergoing emergency surgery

Predictors of emergency abdominal surgery for patients aged 90 years or older: A retrospective study

Background

With the aging of the population, more and more patients ≥90 years old are undergoing surgery. We retrospectively examined factors affecting morbidity and in-hospital mortality among patients ≥90 years old who underwent emergency abdominal operations.

Materials and methods

Forty-six cases of emergency abdominal surgery for patients ≥90 years old who underwent surgery at our hospital between 2011 and 2022 were included in this study. Factors affecting morbidity and in-hospital mortality were analyzed statistically. Physiological and operative severity score for the enumeration of mortality and morbidity (POSSUM)-predicted morbidity and Portsmouth-POSSUM (P-POSSUM)-predicted mortality were calculated.

Results

Postoperative complications occurred in 30 patients (65.2 %) and 5 patients (10.8 %) died in the hospital. Factors affecting morbidity included American Society of Anesthesiologists physical status score, operative time and blood loss, and operative severity score. Multivariate analysis identified male sex, operative severity score, and length of hospital stay as factors affecting morbidity. Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status and physiological score were identified as factors influencing mortality in hospital, and only physiological score was identified in the multivariate analysis. Area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve for POSSUM-predicted morbidity was 0.796 and area under the ROC curve for P-POSSUM-predicted mortality was 0.805, both of which were moderately accurate.

Conclusion

Risk of emergency abdominal surgery in patients ≥90 years old may be predictable to some extent, and we are able to provide convincing explanations to patients and families based on these data.

Associations between Charlson Comorbidity Index and Surgical Risk Severity and the Surgical Outcomes in Advanced-age Patients

The Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) has not been assessed for elderly (95 years of age or older) surgical patients. We examined the association between the CCI and life-threatening complications and 30-day mortality rate. Medical records of patients 95 years old or older from 2004 through 2008 were reviewed for major postoperative morbidity or death. Logistic regression analyses of age, sex, the CCI, American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Surgical Risk Stratification, and surgical urgency were performed to identify associations with poor surgical outcome. One hundred eighty-seven patients were identified (mean [standard deviation] age, 96.6 [1.9] years; median [interquartile range] CCI, 4 [2 to 6]). Ninety patients (48.1%) underwent moderate-risk and 20 (10.7%) underwent high-risk surgical procedures. Twenty patients (10.7%) died within 30 postoperative days and 20 others had major morbidity. Only moderate-risk ( P = 0.045) and high-risk surgical procedures ( P = 0.001) were associated with poor outcome. Patients of advanced age have high rates of morbidity and death after surgical procedures. These events are associated with surgical risk stratification and are independent of patient comorbidities. Risks, benefits, and alternatives must be considered carefully and discussed with patients and their families before deciding to proceed with high-risk surgery.

Acute kidney injury among nonagenarians in Jordan: a retrospective case-control study

Background

Improvements in health care systems worldwide have had notable effects on the life expectancy of older individuals. As a result, nonagenarians are emerging as a separate age group with distinct health care needs. The aim of this study was to evaluate the incidence of acute kidney injury (AKI), the mortality rates, and length of in-hospital stay among nonagenarians.

Methods

This is a retrospective case–control chart review of patients of age 90 years and above who were admitted to hospital. Patients with Stage I, II, or III chronic kidney disease were included in the analysis. The incidence of AKI was determined using data from the Acute Kidney Injury Network (AKIN) classification. Primary outcome variables included length of in-hospital stay and mortality rates.

Results

Of the 253 patients who were included in the study, the mean age was 91.5 years, 61 of the patients (25.9%) developed AKI, and 41 patients (66.1%) were in Stage I AKI according to AKIN criteria. Fifty-seven patients died during the study period; 57.9% of those patients had AKI. Hospital stay was longer in patients with AKI with a mean length of stay of 8.1 days. Congestive heart failure, cancer, and use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs were the main risk factors for AKI among those patients.

Conclusion

AKI is common in nonagenarians. It was associated with increased length of hospital stays and increased risk for mortality.

Preventable Complications and Deaths after Emergency Nontrauma Surgery

The objective of this study was to investigate the frequency and cause of preventable and potentially preventable complications on an emergency nontrauma surgical service. The study is a retrospective review conducted at an academic teaching hospital. All patients were assessed (January 2010–June 2012) for emergency general surgical conditions, excluding trauma. The main outcome measures were preventable and potentially preventable complications and deaths, treatments, loop closure mechanisms, and impact on outcomes. The results showed that of 9078 nontrauma emergency surgical admissions and consultations, 194 patients (2.1%) had 261 complications. One hundred and ten (42.1% of total complications) were preventable. The most common causes of preventable complications were delay in management or diagnosis (n = 45, 41% of all preventable complications), technical/iatrogenic (n = 28, 25%), and infectious (n = 18, 16%). The most common nonpreventable complication was infectious (n = 84, 82% of all complications). The most common diagnoses associated with preventable complications were acute cholecystitis (n = 27, 25%), acute appendicitis (n = 25, 23%), and small bowel obstruction (n = 7, 6%). Preventable complications changed management in 80 per cent of cases. Of three (0.01%) mortalities, two were preventable. The mortality rate in emergency nontrauma surgery is low. A significant burden of complications remains. A large proportion are preventable or potentially preventable, with many changing management. These preventable errors are important targets for quality improvement efforts as the specialty of acute care surgery evolves.

Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity and modified Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity for the mortality prediction among nonagenarians undergoing emergency surgery

BACKGROUND

The aims of this study were to determine the outcomes of emergency abdominal surgery in patients aged ≥90 y and to analyze the role of Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) and modified POSSUM in predicting their morbidity and mortality.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Patients aged ≥90 y who underwent emergency abdominal surgery from January 2011 to December 2014 were enrolled in this study.

RESULTS

A total of 36 patients satisfied the inclusion criteria. The mortality and morbidity rates in the study group were 8.3% and 61.1%, respectively. Overall observed-to-expected morbidity ratio calculated by POSSUM and modified POSSUM were 0.83 (χ² = 32.189, P = 0.6045) and 0.97 (χ² = 33.915, P = 0.7398), respectively. Both models demonstrated a good fit for prediction of morbidity. Overall observed-to-expected mortality ratios calculated by POSSUM and modified POSSUM were 0.26 (χ² = 12.217, P = 0.2013) and 0.20 (χ² = 12.217, P = 0.0936), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Both POSSUM and modified POSSUM accurately predicted morbidity in the setting of emergency abdominal surgery in nonagenarians.

Mortality after emergency surgery continues to rise after discharge in the elderly: Predictors of 1-year mortality

BACKGROUND

It is known that emergency surgery in the elderly is associated with high short-term mortality, but longer-term outcomes are not well described. We hypothesized that 30-day mortality may underestimate the true operative mortality experienced in this cohort. The purposes of this study were to characterize postoperative mortality rates extending to 1 year and to identify preoperative predictors of 1 year mortality after emergency abdominal surgery.

METHODS

We retrospectively reviewed the records of all patients older than 70 years who underwent emergency abdominal surgery at a major teaching hospital between 2006 and 2011. Demographics, preoperative physiology, prehospital status, body mass index, laboratory values, Charlson scores, comorbid conditions, American Society of Anesthesiologists classification, and operative details were recorded. The primary end point was 1-year mortality. Complementary log-log binary regression was used to determine independent predictors of death. Model discrimination was evaluated using the c statistic.

RESULTS

A total of 390 patients met our inclusion criteria. The mean age was 79 years, and 56% were women. Postoperative mortality was 16.2% at 30 days and 32.5% at 1 year, reflecting a doubling of mortality over 11 months. Independent preoperative predictors of 1-year mortality were Charlson score of 4 or higher (hazard ratio [HR], 1.79; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.38-2.34), American Society of Anesthesiologists class of 4 or higher (HR, 1.66; 95% CI, 1.22-2.21), albumin less than 3.5 (HR, 1.71; 95% CI, 1.31-2.28), and body mass index lower than 18.5 (HR, 3.36; 95% CI, 1.48-6.86). The c statistic was 0.81.

CONCLUSION

The 1-year mortality after emergency surgery in the elderly is significantly higher than that at 30 days. We identified a constellation of preoperative clinical markers that were highly predictive of this poor late outcome. The presence of these findings in the emergency setting should prompt preoperative discussion about treatment goals and encourage surgeons to set realistic expectations about outcomes with the patient and family. Future studies will develop a clinical scoring tool that can be applied at the bedside to provide more effective counseling for this high-risk population.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Epidemiologic/prognostic study, level III; therapeutic study, level IV.

Risk assessment tools validated for patients undergoing emergency laparotomy: a systematic review

Emergency laparotomies are performed commonly throughout the world, but one in six patients die within a month of surgery. Current international initiatives to reduce the considerable associated morbidity and mortality are founded upon delivering individualised perioperative care. However, while the identification of high-risk patients requires the routine assessment of individual risk, no method of doing so has been demonstrated to be practical and reliable across the commonly encountered spectrum of presentations, co-morbidities and operative procedures. A systematic review of Embase and Medline identified 20 validation studies assessing 25 risk assessment tools in patients undergoing emergency laparotomy. The most frequently studied general tools were APACHE II, ASA-PS and P-POSSUM. Comparative, quantitative analysis of tool performance was not feasible due to the heterogeneity of study design, poor reporting and infrequent within-study statistical comparison of tool performance. Reporting of calibration was notably absent in many prognostic tool validation studies. APACHE II demonstrated the most consistent discrimination of individual outcome across a variety of patient groups undergoing emergency laparotomy when used either preoperatively or postoperatively (area under the curve 0.76-0.98). While APACHE systems were designed for use in critical care, the ability of APACHE II to generate individual risk estimates from objective, exclusively preoperative data items may lead to better-informed shared decisions, triage and perioperative management of patients undergoing emergency laparotomy. Future endeavours should include the recalibration of APACHE II and P-POSSUM in contemporary cohorts, modifications to enable prediction of morbidity and assessment of the impact of adoption of these tools on clinical practice and patient outcomes.