Liver transplantation should be offered to patients with small solitary hepatocellular carcinoma and a positive serum alpha fetoprotein rather than resection

Development and validation of nomograms for predicting prognosis in patients with solitary HCC: A TRIPOD-Compliant study

Objective

To develop and validate nomograms for predicting the OS and CSS of patients with Solitary Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC).

Methods

Using the TRIPOD guidelines, this study identified 5206 patients in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) 17 registry database. All patients were randomly divided in a ratio of 7:3 into a training cohort (n = 3646) and a validation cohort (n = 1560), and the Chinese independent cohort (n = 307) constituted the external validation group. The prognosis-related risk factors were selected using univariate Cox regression analysis, and the independent prognostic factors of OS and CSS were identified using the Lasso-Cox regression model. The nomograms for predicting the OS and CSS of the patients were constructed based on the identified prognostic factors. Their prediction ability was evaluated using the concordance index (C-index), receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and calibration curve in both the training and validation cohorts.

Results

We identified factors that predict OS and CSS and constructed two nomograms based on the data. The ROC analysis, C-index analysis, and calibration analysis indicated that the two nomograms performed well over the 1, 3, and 5-year OS and CSS periods in both the training and validation cohorts. Additionally, these results were confirmed in the external validation group. Decision curve analysis (DCA) demonstrated that the two nomograms were clinically valuable and superior to the TNM stage system.

Conclusion

We established and validated nomograms to predict 1,3, and 5-year OS and CSS in solitary HCC patients, and our results may also be helpful for clinical decision-making.

Impact of local tumor lesion treatments and preoperative indicators on the survival of patients with small hepatocellular carcinomas

The prognosis for small hepatocellular carcinomas (SHCC) remains uncertain. The aim of the present study was to compare three local tumor lesion treatments and identify the prognostic factors in patients with SHCC by analyzing preoperative indicators. A retrospective study was performed using data from 206 patients with SHCC from 2006–2015. All of the patients had undergone transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) alone, TACE plus percutaneous microwave coagulation therapy (PMCT) or surgical resection (SR). The Kaplan-Meier method was used to calculate the survival rates. Multivariate analysis was conducted using Cox regression analysis. The median survival time of patients with SHCC was 27 (range, 14–49) months in the TACE group, 29.5 (range, 16–52) months in the TACE-PMCT group and 36.5 (range, 26–52) months in the SR group (P=0.091). The 1, 3 and 5-year survival rates for patients with SHCC were 82.4, 64.9 and 46.8% in the TACE group; 89.0, 72.6 and 58.3% in the TACE-PMCT group and 88.8, 72.3 and 58.6% in the SR group (P=0.181), respectively. Analysis from the Cox regression model demonstrated that preoperative α-fetoprotein (AFP; <400 ng/ml vs. ≥400 ng/ml; HR=0.548; P=0.036) was an independent predictor of the survival time of patients with SHCC. Analysis of patients with preoperative AFP levels of ≥400 ng/ml revealed that the median survival time in the SR group was 36 (range, 28.25–52) months, significantly longer than the TACE (17 months; range, 12–44 months) and TACE-PMCT group (27 months; range, 14–55 months; P=0.035). The 1, 2 and 3-year survival rates for patients with SHCC with ≥400 ng/ml AFP were: 70.8, 55.5 and 49.9% in the TACE group; 83.7, 68.0 and 60.8% in the TACE-PMCT group; and 90.9, 81.8 and 61.0% in SR group, respectively (P=0.664). However, there was no significant difference among the three groups in the survival time of patients with SHCC with <400 ng/ml preoperative AFP. The observations indicated that SR is not significantly different for overall survival time in the patients with SHCC between the two groups; this method can be employed for patients with SHCC. This was based on the median survival time of patients with ≥400 ng/ml AFP in the SR group who had a longer survival time and a higher survival rate than in the TACE and TACE-PMCT group.

Evaluation of Recurrence Predictors and Survival Probability After Liver Transplantation for Hepatocellular Carcinoma: Analysis From a Single Center

BACKGROUND

Liver transplantation is the criterion standard treatment for hepatocellular carcinoma, but tumor recurrence remains a problem leading to a worse prognosis. We aimed to evaluate factors associated with recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma and survival after this procedure.

METHODS

We retrospectively reviewed data from 101 patients submitted to liver transplantation because of hepatocellular carcinoma from January 2005 to January 2012 at our single center. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify preoperative factors and histologic findings associated with lower survival rates and recurrence. The significance level was 5%.

RESULTS

There was recurrence in 10 cases (9.9%), with an average time of 25.28 ± 26.92 months. Microvascular invasion (P = .005; hazard ratio [HR], 4.94; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.42-17.12) was an independent factor for recurrence. Microvascular invasion (P = .035; HR, 1.87; 95% CI, 1.04-3.25) and tumors outside the criteria of the University of San Francisco (P = .046; HR, 1.81; 95% CI, 1.01-3.25) were independent factors for the risk of death. Poorly differentiated tumors had a higher level of alphafetoprotein (P = .03), and values <100 ng/mL were associated with well differentiated tumors.

CONCLUSIONS

Microvascular invasion was associated with recurrence and lower survival. Tumors outside the criteria of the University of California, San Francisco had lower survival. Alpha-fetoprotein levels >100 ng/mL were associated with poorly differentiated tumors.

Combination of morphologic criteria and α-fetoprotein in selection of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma for liver transplantation minimizes the problem of posttransplant tumor recurrence

Background

Serum α-fetoprotein concentration (AFP) might be a useful addition to morphologic criteria for selecting patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) for liver transplantation (LT). The aim of this study was to evaluate the role of AFP in selecting HCC patients at minimal risk of posttransplant tumor recurrence in the setting of existing criteria.

Methods

This retrospective cohort study was based on 121 HCC patients after LT performed at a single institution. AFP was evaluated as a predictor of posttransplant tumor recurrence with respect to fulfillment of the Milan, University of California, San Francisco (UCSF), and Up-to-7 criteria.

Results

There was a nearly linear association between AFP and the risk of HCC recurrence (p < 0.001 for linear effect; p = 0.434 for nonlinear effect). AFP predicted HCC recurrence in patients (1) beyond the Milan criteria (p < 0.001; optimal cutoff 200 ng/ml); (2) within the UCSF criteria (p = 0.001; optimal cutoff 100 ng/ml) and beyond them (p = 0.015; optimal cutoff 200 ng/ml); and (3) within the Up-to-7 criteria (p = 0.001; optimal cutoff 100 ng/ml) and beyond them (p = 0.023; optimal cutoff 100 ng/ml) but not in patients within the Milan criteria (p = 0.834). Patients within either UCSF and Up-to-7 criteria with AFP level <100 ng/ml exhibited superior (100 %) 5-year recurrence-free survival—significantly higher than those within UCSF (p = 0.005) or Up-to-7 (p = 0.001) criteria with AFP levels higher than the estimated cutoffs or beyond with AFP levels less than the estimated cutoffs.

Conclusions

Combining the UCSF and Up-to-7 criteria with an AFP level <100 ng/ml is associated with minimal risk of tumor recurrence. Hence, this combination might be useful for selecting HCC patients for LT.

Predictors of microvascular invasion in patients with solitary small hepatitis B related hepatocellular carcinoma

OBJECTIVE

To identify the risk factors for the presence of microvascular invasion (MVI) in patients with solitary small hepatitis B related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

METHODS

The data of 215 patients who underwent liver resection between 2008 and 2011 at our hospital were reviewed. MVI was confirmed on pathological examination in 41 patients. Preoperative risk factors for MVI were analyzed using uni- and multi-variate analyses.

RESULTS

In the multivariate analysis, alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) greater than 400 ng/mL, tumor size and hypersplenism were independently associated with MVI. Receiver operating curve (ROC) analysis suggested the best cut-off value for tumor size was greater than 3.1 cm. The ROC curve analysis further identified patients with more than one above-mentioned risk factor may suffer from MVI with 75.6% sensitivity and 75.3% specificity. The recurrence-free and long-term survival rates of patients with MVI were significantly lower than patients without MVI.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with MVI may suffer from poor outcomes. AFP greater than 400 ng/mL, tumor size and hypersplenism were preoperative predictors of MVI in patients with solitary small hepatitis B related HCC.