Grading system for medullary thyroid carcinoma; an institutional experience

Novel prognostic nomogram for predicting recurrence-free survival in medullary thyroid carcinoma

AIMS

Recently, there have been attempts to improve prognostication and therefore better guide treatment for patients with medullary thyroid carcinoma (MTC). In 2022, the International MTC Grading System (IMTCGS) was developed and validated using a multi-institutional cohort of 327 patients. The aim of the current study was to build upon the findings of the IMTCGS to develop and validate a prognostic nomogram to predict recurrence-free survival (RFS) in MTC.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Data from 300 patients with MTC from five centres across the USA, Europe, and Australia were used to develop a prognostic nomogram that included the following variables: age, sex, AJCC stage, tumour size, mitotic count, necrosis, Ki67 index, lymphovascular invasion, microscopic extrathyroidal extension, and margin status. A process of 10-fold cross-validation was used to optimize the model's performance. To assess discrimination and calibration, the area-under-the-curve (AUC) of a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, concordance-index (C-index), and dissimilarity index (D-index) were calculated. Finally, the model was externally validated using a separate cohort of 87 MTC patients. The model demonstrated very strong performance, with an AUC of 0.94, a C-index of 0.876, and a D-index of 19.06. When applied to the external validation cohort, the model had an AUC of 0.9.

CONCLUSIONS

Using well-established clinicopathological prognostic variables, we developed and externally validated a robust multivariate prediction model for RFS in patients with resected MTC. The model demonstrates excellent predictive capability and may help guide decisions on patient management. The nomogram is freely available online at https://nomograms.shinyapps.io/MTC_ML_DFS/.

International medullary thyroid carcinoma grading system: an Indian tertiary care centre experience

INTRODUCTION

Medullary carcinoma (MTC) is a rare neuroendocrine thyroid neoplasm. The international medullary thyroid carcinoma grading scheme (IMTCGS), which has prognostic significance, has been introduced recently. The present study graded MTC cases using the IMTCGS and evaluated it in our study cohort.

METHODS

All MTC thyroidectomy cases over 6 years were evaluated. Low-grade (LG) and high-grade (HG) were compared. Survival analysis included overall survival (OS), loco-regional free survival and distant metastasis free survival (DMFS).

RESULTS

Of 32 cases, 31.25% were HG and 68.75% LG. The mean age was 44.0 years and M:F ratio 1:1.146. HG patients were older and had tumour cells with high-grade nuclear features and prominent nucleoli and showed distant metastasis. Necrosis was found more in patients with high grade nuclear features. There was discordance between the high Ki67 (60%) and increased mitotic activity (20%). Univariate survival analysis revealed poor DMFRS and OS in the cohorts with high grade, Ki67 > 5% and coagulative necrosis. The multivariate cox regression analysis showed IMTCGS significantly associated with overall survival (HR 28.30, p = 0.009) and DMFS (HR 15.70, p = 0.02).

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION

This is the first Indian study evaluating IMTCGS, a very simple and convenient grading system that can be readily used in any tertiary health care centre. IHC for Ki 67 should mandatorily be done irrespective of the low mitotic activity on the HPE and necrosis should be diligently searched in cases with high-grade nuclear morphology. HG MTC cohorts were associated with poor OS as well as DMFRS.

Medullary Thyroid Carcinomas Classified According to the International Medullary Carcinoma Grading System and a Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results-Based Metastatic Risk Score: A Correlation With Genetic Profile and Angioinvasion

Due to the lack of a standardized tool for risk-based stratification, the International Medullary Carcinoma Grading System (IMTCGS) has been proposed for medullary thyroid carcinomas (MTCs) based on necrosis, mitosis, and Ki67. Similarly, a risk stratification study using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database highlighted significant differences in MTCs in terms of clinical-pathological variables. We aimed to validate both the IMTCGS and SEER-based risk table on 66 MTC cases, with special attention to angioinvasion and the genetic profile. We found a significant association between the IMTCGS and survival because patients classified as high-grade had a lower event-free survival probability. Angioinvasion was also found to be significantly correlated with metastasis and death. Applying the SEER-based risk table, patients classified either as intermediate- or high-risk had a lower survival rate than low-risk patients. In addition, high-grade IMTCGS cases had a higher average SEER-based risk score than low-grade cases. Moreover, when we explored angioinvasion in correlation with the SEER-based risk table, patients with angioinvasion had a higher average SEER-based score than patients without angioinvasion. Deep sequencing analysis found that 10 out of 20 genes frequently mutated in MTCs belonged to a specific functional class, namely chromatin organization, and function, which may be responsible for the MTC heterogeneity. In addition, the genetic signature identified 3 main clusters; cases belonging to cluster II displayed a significantly higher number of mutations and higher tumor mutational burden, suggesting increased genetic instability, but cluster I was associated with the highest number of negative events. In conclusion, we confirmed the prognostic performance of the IMTCGS and SEER-based risk score, showing that patients classified as high-grade had a lower event-free survival probability. We also underline that angioinvasion has a significant prognostic role, which has not been incorporated in previous risk scores.