Geographic and temporal trends in fentanyl-detected deaths in Connecticut, 2009-2019

Spatiotemporal Trends of Birth Defects in North Carolina, 2003-2015

Birth defects are a leading cause of infant mortality in the United States, but little is known about causes of many types of birth defects. Spatiotemporal disease mapping to identify high-prevalence areas, is a potential strategy to narrow the search for potential environmental and other causes that aggregate over space and time. We described the spatial and temporal trends of the prevalence of birth defects in North Carolina during 2003-2015, using data on live births obtained from the North Carolina Birth Defects Monitoring Program. By employing a Bayesian space-time Poisson model, we estimated spatial and temporal trends of non-chromosomal and chromosomal birth defects. During 2003-2015, 52,524 (3.3%) of 1,598,807 live births had at least one recorded birth defect. The prevalence of non-chromosomal birth defects decreased from 3.8% in 2003 to 2.9% in 2015. Spatial modeling suggested a large geographic variation in non-chromosomal birth defects at census-tract level, with the highest prevalence in south-eastern North Carolina. The strong spatial heterogeneity revealed in this work allowed to identify geographic areas with higher prevalence of non-chromosomal birth defects in North Carolina. This variation will help inform future research focused on epidemiologic studies of birth defects to identify etiologic factors.

Receipt of opioid use disorder treatments prior to fatal overdoses and comparison to no treatment in Connecticut, 2016-17

OBJECTIVE

To determine the relative risk of death following exposure to treatments for OUD compared to no treatment.

METHODS

In this retrospective cohort study we compiled and merged state agency data on accidental and undetermined opioid overdose deaths in 2017 and exposures to OUD treatment in the prior six months to determine incidence rates following exposure to different treatment modalities. These rates were compared to the estimated incidence among those exposed to no treatment to determine relative risk of death for each treatment exposure.

RESULTS

Incidence rates for opioid poisoning deaths for those exposed to treatment ranged from 6.06±1.40 per 1000 persons exposed to methadone to 17.36±3.22 per 1000 persons exposed to any non-medication treatment. The estimated incidence rate for those not exposed to treatment was 9.80±0.72 per 1000 persons. With no exposure to treatment as referent, exposure to methadone or buprenorphine reduced the relative risk by 38% or 34%, respectively; the relative risk of non-medication treatments was equal to or worse than no exposure to treatment (RR = 1.27-1.77).

PRINCIPAL CONCLUSIONS

Exposure to non-MOUD treatments provided no protection against fatal opioid poisoning whereas the relative risk was reduced following exposures to MOUD treatment, even if treatment was not continued. Population level efforts to reduce opioid overdose deaths need to focus on expanding access to agonist-based MOUD treatments and are unlikely to succeed if access to non-MOUD treatments is made more available.

Responding to the US opioid crisis: leveraging analytics to support decision making

The US is experiencing a severe opioid epidemic with more than 80,000 opioid overdose deaths occurring in 2022. Beyond the tragic loss of life, opioid use disorder (OUD) has emerged as a major contributor to morbidity, lost productivity, mounting criminal justice system costs, and significant social disruption. This Current Opinion article highlights opportunities for analytics in supporting policy making for effective response to this crisis. We describe modeling opportunities in the following areas: understanding the opioid epidemic (e.g., the prevalence and incidence of OUD in different geographic regions, demographics of individuals with OUD, rates of overdose and overdose death, patterns of drug use and associated disease outbreaks, and access to and use of treatment for OUD); assessing policies for preventing and treating OUD, including mitigation of social conditions that increase the risk of OUD; and evaluating potential regulatory and criminal justice system reforms.